For the first time in nearly three years the Tories lead in the polls – politicalbetting.com
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Well, if you can't last longer than a lettuce, you deserve to be airbrushed out lol...Cookie said:
Also from that site, a quote from Dan Hannan:Cookie said:
My goodness.Dumbosaurus said:
She looks evil, but it may just be insanity. His wife's gotta be one of the two, right?SandraMc said:Mrs Jenrick was looking daggers at Kemi.
I haven't been watching. But if anyone else is wondering about the expression on Mrs. Jenrick's face, have a look at this:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/11/02/tory-leadership-race-kemi-badenoch-robert-jenrick/
"Kemi Badenoch is the party’s second non-white and third female leader. And you know what? It’s no big deal."
Clearly Liz Truss already being airbrushed from history.0 -
They tore out that leaf.GIN1138 said:
Well, if you can't last longer than a lettuce, you deserve to be airbrushed out lol...Cookie said:
Also from that site, a quote from Dan Hannan:Cookie said:
My goodness.Dumbosaurus said:
She looks evil, but it may just be insanity. His wife's gotta be one of the two, right?SandraMc said:Mrs Jenrick was looking daggers at Kemi.
I haven't been watching. But if anyone else is wondering about the expression on Mrs. Jenrick's face, have a look at this:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/11/02/tory-leadership-race-kemi-badenoch-robert-jenrick/
"Kemi Badenoch is the party’s second non-white and third female leader. And you know what? It’s no big deal."
Clearly Liz Truss already being airbrushed from history.0 -
I could not imagine why Christ should come into itJonathan said:
Reads like you’re not a fan of Christ.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Whybigjohnowls said:Christ makes SKS look like the lesser of 2 evils
2 -
I would imagine there's a lot of talk about coconuts and house n words on twitter right now, it being the platform it is.Sandpit said:
Indeed.BatteryCorrectHorse said:It’s also a huge moment to have a female and black leader of a party. That’s credit to the Tories.
Watching Starmer talk about issues such as “reparations” is going to be hilarious, when there’s an African woman standing opposite him with the opposing view.
I've said it before, but the changes to the ethnic makeup of the Commons just from 2000 is remarkable.3 -
The three largest issues facing the country are housing, housing, and planning.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.5 -
He is omnipresent.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I could not imagine why Christ should come into itJonathan said:
Reads like you’re not a fan of Christ.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Whybigjohnowls said:Christ makes SKS look like the lesser of 2 evils
1 -
She can't, they've gone all in on Nimbyism. It will help gain back some Shire seats, but is a long term error.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.
Come to think of it wasn't it Jenrick trying to do something about that under Boris, and got thrown under the bus? (Yes there were some issues with the plans, but just giving up was silly given the majority).0 -
The issue Badenoch will face on housing is her party being utterly opposed to doing anything about planning.Sandpit said:
The three largest issues facing the country are housing, housing, and planning.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.
So there is a wide open goal for Starmer here but if he misses then Badenoch has her opening.0 -
the vague suggestion was business networking and/or aspirations to get on the gravy train (no sniggering) on what is still a tory run local councilFairliered said:
A tory supporting boyfriend?Tres said:I was out with an old friend last night, he informed us his 20 something daughter just joined the Tory party. Couldn't offer a rationale explanation for it but there you go, it takes all sorts.
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ahemCookie said:
Also from that site, a quote from Dan Hannan:Cookie said:
My goodness.Dumbosaurus said:
She looks evil, but it may just be insanity. His wife's gotta be one of the two, right?SandraMc said:Mrs Jenrick was looking daggers at Kemi.
I haven't been watching. But if anyone else is wondering about the expression on Mrs. Jenrick's face, have a look at this:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/11/02/tory-leadership-race-kemi-badenoch-robert-jenrick/
"Kemi Badenoch is the party’s second non-white and third female leader. And you know what? It’s no big deal."
Clearly Liz Truss already being airbrushed from history.
3 -
Yes there’s going to be loads of Labour MPs caught saying something either silly offensive or downright racist.kle4 said:
I would imagine there's a lot of talk about coconuts and house n words on twitter right now, it being the platform it is.Sandpit said:
Indeed.BatteryCorrectHorse said:It’s also a huge moment to have a female and black leader of a party. That’s credit to the Tories.
Watching Starmer talk about issues such as “reparations” is going to be hilarious, when there’s an African woman standing opposite him with the opposing view.
I've said it before, but the changes to the ethnic makeup of the Commons just from 2000 is remarkable.1 -
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
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3m
I think the first thing Kemi Badenoch's team is going to have to do is tackle this narrative she has been left some sort of golden inheritance by Rishi Sunak on the basis of a single post Budget poll...0 -
The change to the ethnic makeup of tge UK since 2000 is also remarkable. The Commons probably lags it by about, what, 12 years?kle4 said:
I would imagine there's a lot of talk about coconuts and house n words on twitter right now, it being the platform it is.Sandpit said:
Indeed.BatteryCorrectHorse said:It’s also a huge moment to have a female and black leader of a party. That’s credit to the Tories.
Watching Starmer talk about issues such as “reparations” is going to be hilarious, when there’s an African woman standing opposite him with the opposing view.
I've said it before, but the changes to the ethnic makeup of the Commons just from 2000 is remarkable.0 -
.
Well quite.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I could not imagine why Christ should come into itJonathan said:
Reads like you’re not a fan of Christ.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Whybigjohnowls said:Christ makes SKS look like the lesser of 2 evils
PS. Wonder how Badenoch would get along with a Trump or Harris Whitehouse. That being said it’s likely that the next US election will be before the next U.K. GE, so maybe she doesn’t have to worry about that relationship and focus on whoever is next.1 -
In fairness, Christ probably would have made a very poor UK party leader.viewcode said:
That sentence really needs a comma 😃bigjohnowls said:Christ makes SKS look like the lesser of 2 evils
- no killer instinct
- no liking for freebies
- tolerance for internal traitors
- no ability to be two-faced, insincere or hypocritical when necessary
He'd be lucky to hold the safest of seats.2 -
NoSandpit said:
The three largest issues facing the country are housing, housing, and planning.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.
It's pointless process.
If you have 6 figures of paperwork and install cladding made of tinder on a building, this is not a reason to double the paperwork.
It's time to reduce the paperwork to a dozen sides of A4. And use the money to hire some inspectors with the power to say "Tear is down and try again. Until you come up with a building that isn't a giant fucking fire lighter."5 -
Well that will be bloody easy to do, no one serious would genuinely push that as a narrative. Oh right, Dan Hodges.rottenborough said:
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
3m
I think the first thing Kemi Badenoch's team is going to have to do is tackle this narrative she has been left some sort of golden inheritance by Rishi Sunak on the basis of a single post Budget poll...1 -
She’s friends with Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who might be a GOP candidate in 2028. He had a terrible campaign last year though.Jonathan said:.
Well quite.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I could not imagine why Christ should come into itJonathan said:
Reads like you’re not a fan of Christ.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Whybigjohnowls said:Christ makes SKS look like the lesser of 2 evils
PS. Wonder how Badenoch would get along with a Trump or Harris Whitehouse. That being said it’s likely that the next US election will be before the next U.K. GE, so maybe she doesn’t have to worry about that relationship and focus on whoever is next.
https://www.flgov.com/2023/11/14/governor-ron-desantis-joined-by-uk-secretary-of-state-kemi-badenoch-to-formally-expand-floridas-business-partnerships-with-britain/1 -
There’s a balance but I’ve long gone past caring if things look a bit naff if people have a place to live.Malmesbury said:
NoSandpit said:
The three largest issues facing the country are housing, housing, and planning.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.
It's pointless process.
If you have 6 figures of paperwork and install cladding made of tinder on a building, this is not a reason to double the paperwork.
It's time to reduce the paperwork to a dozen sides of A4. And use the money to hire some inspectors with the power to say "Tear is down and try again. Until you come up with a building that isn't a giant fucking fire lighter."
It’s like this stuff about pylons. Who cares how they look. They already exist. Just build them.2 -
I give you 5/1 on that. Inside the first week.Sandpit said:
Yes there’s going to be loads of Labour MPs caught saying something either silly offensive or downright racist.kle4 said:
I would imagine there's a lot of talk about coconuts and house n words on twitter right now, it being the platform it is.Sandpit said:
Indeed.BatteryCorrectHorse said:It’s also a huge moment to have a female and black leader of a party. That’s credit to the Tories.
Watching Starmer talk about issues such as “reparations” is going to be hilarious, when there’s an African woman standing opposite him with the opposing view.
I've said it before, but the changes to the ethnic makeup of the Commons just from 2000 is remarkable.0 -
Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social
·
26m
We should also take a minute to enjoy Jenrick losing.
Could not have more cynically attuned his campaign to the prejudices of his electorate and he lost anyway.
LOL.
https://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3l7xkrkmdtf2w5 -
People over think this. It’s also just that the political wheel has turned in Canada. Corbyn could have won here this year. Eventually it’s just your “turn”.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.
3 -
Gove had good ideas but was shut down by the NIMBYs in the party, who mostly lost to the Lib Dems anyway.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The issue Badenoch will face on housing is her party being utterly opposed to doing anything about planning.Sandpit said:
The three largest issues facing the country are housing, housing, and planning.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.
So there is a wide open goal for Starmer here but if he misses then Badenoch has her opening.
Time to do the right thing, there’s more than four years until the next election.2 -
The moneychangers-at-the-temple indicate a chap with a robust approach to things he doesn't like.Fishing said:
In fairness, Christ probably would have made a very poor UK party leader.viewcode said:
That sentence really needs a comma 😃bigjohnowls said:Christ makes SKS look like the lesser of 2 evils
- no killer instinct
- no liking for freebies
- tolerance for internal traitors
- no ability to be two-faced, insincere or hypocritical when necessary
I mean, have you ever met a third world money exchange guy? Gentle, philosophical and relaxed is not really their thing.1 -
Good riddance to the mural painter ! He can slime off to Reform now .1
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Has Tory membership EVER been that low? Because since members were allowed to vote for Leader (2001), membership's more than halvedMattW said:Total Tory membership: 131,680 eligible electors.
I was out by a 20k underestimate.
But that's down by nearly a quarter since September 2022.
So where will they get their candidates from in 2028/2029? And how many activists will there be to do all the things Tory activists used to do back in the days Tory when activism dominated daily life in most of the country?
Face it: By 2028, there'll be no Tory party. And with Farage self-destroying as he always does, there'll be nowhere for Tories to go.
So the outcome's simple to predict. Starmer (or another Labour MP) will be back in four or five years for another term,, while the LibDems lead the kind of sane but robust Opposition Starmer needs1 -
It isn’t going to be Badenoch’s turn into 2029 if she doesn’t do anything to change the party.biggles said:
People over think this. It’s also just that the political wheel has turned in Canada. Corbyn could have won here this year. Eventually it’s just your “turn”.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.
Frankly I think the Tory hopes in 2029 are virtually zero but if the Tories want to do anything they will need to offer an alternative then.0 -
.
Actually, they are planning, regulation, and housing.Sandpit said:
The three largest issues facing the country are housing, housing, and planning.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.
The first two could be ameliorated at very little cost, and enormous economic benefit.
But that would take a government who had a clue. We've not had one of those in a long time.3 -
There is something in that, certainly, but you do still need to take advantage of the situation through positive actions, there's push and pull factors.biggles said:
People over think this. It’s also just that the political wheel has turned in Canada. Corbyn could have won here this year. Eventually it’s just your “turn”.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.
Definitely it is possible to win by being super cautious and vague, relying on the push factors from an incompetent longstanding incumbent, but you have an better shot at a big win if you simultaneously make yourself more attractive to potential voters by addressing some of their concerns.0 -
Russia, climate adaptation, and regaining social consent for immigration. Housing is a relative doddle.Sandpit said:
The three largest issues facing the country are housing, housing, and planning.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.
1 -
My guess is Kemi won by a large margin in the south-east and London, with Jenrick winning more narrowly in the rest of the country.1
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Gove also helped draft the worst piece of property relayed legislation ever written so said my solicitor friend.Sandpit said:
Gove had good ideas but was shut down by the NIMBYs in the party, who mostly lost to the Lib Dems anyway.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The issue Badenoch will face on housing is her party being utterly opposed to doing anything about planning.Sandpit said:
The three largest issues facing the country are housing, housing, and planning.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.
So there is a wide open goal for Starmer here but if he misses then Badenoch has her opening.
Time to do the right thing, there’s more than four years until the next election.
But overall I rate Gove as a skilled operator.
The best the Tories had were Gauke and Stewart. Both gone.0 -
Latest TIPP poll .
Harris 48 ( - )
Trump 48 (-1)2 -
I’ll take a charity tenner at your 5/1, that a Labour MP making a racist remark about Kemi is reported on BBC News website before this time next week.Malmesbury said:
I give you 5/1 on that. Inside the first week.Sandpit said:
Yes there’s going to be loads of Labour MPs caught saying something either silly offensive or downright racist.kle4 said:
I would imagine there's a lot of talk about coconuts and house n words on twitter right now, it being the platform it is.Sandpit said:
Indeed.BatteryCorrectHorse said:It’s also a huge moment to have a female and black leader of a party. That’s credit to the Tories.
Watching Starmer talk about issues such as “reparations” is going to be hilarious, when there’s an African woman standing opposite him with the opposing view.
I've said it before, but the changes to the ethnic makeup of the Commons just from 2000 is remarkable.
You can give your £50 to my brother’s Movember fund, his wife of six years had never seen him without a beard until yesterday!0 -
Which is hilarious when you consider letting Members vote on the Leader was probably suggested as a way to encourage more people to join or remain in the party.flanner2 said:
Has Tory membership EVER been that low? Because since members were allowed to vote for Leader (2001), membership's more than halvedMattW said:Total Tory membership: 131,680 eligible electors.
I was out by a 20k underestimate.
But that's down by nearly a quarter since September 2022.
It's the way of the world, joining a political party is now something only really unusual people do. Labour expanded quite a bit under Corbyn and the SNP were probably closest to the old school large memberships following the Indyref, but these are temporary blips.
0 -
Ellie Reeves, chair of the Labour Party, has said Kemi Badenoch's election as Tory leader shows the party is "incapable of change".BatteryCorrectHorse said:It’s also a huge moment to have a female and black leader of a party. That’s credit to the Tories.
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-leadership-latest-kemi-badenoch-robert-jenrick-budget-politics-live-12593360#85496361 -
A improvement on his Dad’s temper though. He restrained himself from genocide by flood (or trumpet, oddly) when he got pissed off.Malmesbury said:
The moneychangers-at-the-temple indicate a chap with a robust approach to things he doesn't like.Fishing said:
In fairness, Christ probably would have made a very poor UK party leader.viewcode said:
That sentence really needs a comma 😃bigjohnowls said:Christ makes SKS look like the lesser of 2 evils
- no killer instinct
- no liking for freebies
- tolerance for internal traitors
- no ability to be two-faced, insincere or hypocritical when necessary
I mean, have you ever met a third world money exchange guy? Gentle, philosophical and relaxed is not really their thing.
2 -
Next PM
Badenoch 4.3
Farage 9.4
Reeves 11
Rayner 23
Johnson 23
Streeting 26
Phillipson 48
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/uk-next-prime-minister/prime-minister-after-keir-starmer-betting-1.2304347950 -
He was mean to us because he loves us, he swears.biggles said:
A improvement on his Dad’s temper though. He restrained himself from genocide by flood (or trumpet, oddly) when he got pissed off.Malmesbury said:
The moneychangers-at-the-temple indicate a chap with a robust approach to things he doesn't like.Fishing said:
In fairness, Christ probably would have made a very poor UK party leader.viewcode said:
That sentence really needs a comma 😃bigjohnowls said:Christ makes SKS look like the lesser of 2 evils
- no killer instinct
- no liking for freebies
- tolerance for internal traitors
- no ability to be two-faced, insincere or hypocritical when necessary
I mean, have you ever met a third world money exchange guy? Gentle, philosophical and relaxed is not really their thing.1 -
That's an...interesting take.williamglenn said:
Ellie Reeves, chair of the Labour Party, has said Kemi Badenoch's election as Tory leader shows the party is "incapable of change".BatteryCorrectHorse said:It’s also a huge moment to have a female and black leader of a party. That’s credit to the Tories.
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-leadership-latest-kemi-badenoch-robert-jenrick-budget-politics-live-12593360#8549636
I suppose it is true in the sense that the Tories have once again elected a Tory as their leader, and that will not change (unless they capitulate to the Farage fanboys in their ranks).1 -
What legislation is that?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Gove also helped draft the worst piece of property relayed legislation ever written so said my solicitor friend.Sandpit said:
Gove had good ideas but was shut down by the NIMBYs in the party, who mostly lost to the Lib Dems anyway.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The issue Badenoch will face on housing is her party being utterly opposed to doing anything about planning.Sandpit said:
The three largest issues facing the country are housing, housing, and planning.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.
So there is a wide open goal for Starmer here but if he misses then Badenoch has her opening.
Time to do the right thing, there’s more than four years until the next election.
But overall I rate Gove as a skilled operator.
The best the Tories had were Gauke and Stewart. Both gone.0 -
biggles said:
A improvement on his Dad’s temper though. He restrained himself from genocide by flood (or trumpet, oddly) when he got pissed off.Malmesbury said:
The moneychangers-at-the-temple indicate a chap with a robust approach to things he doesn't like.Fishing said:
In fairness, Christ probably would have made a very poor UK party leader.viewcode said:
That sentence really needs a comma 😃bigjohnowls said:Christ makes SKS look like the lesser of 2 evils
- no killer instinct
- no liking for freebies
- tolerance for internal traitors
- no ability to be two-faced, insincere or hypocritical when necessary
I mean, have you ever met a third world money exchange guy? Gentle, philosophical and relaxed is not really their thing.
Loki : Mass genocide is the most exhausting activity one can engage in, next to soccer.
2 -
The Tories have made it harder to remove new leader Kemi Badenoch.
Sir Bob Blackman, the chairman of the 1922 committee tells me for @GBNEWS that the threshold to trigger a vote of no confidence has been secretly increased from 15pc to 33 pc of the Parliamentary party.
This means that 40 MPs will be needed to trigger a vote of no confidence in Badenoch, rather than 18 MPs under the old 15pc rule.
The change was made at a private meeting of the 1922's executive last Wednesday.
https://x.com/christopherhope/status/18526800816021590615 -
A summer of conservative chaos? What on earth are they talking about?williamglenn said:
Ellie Reeves, chair of the Labour Party, has said Kemi Badenoch's election as Tory leader shows the party is "incapable of change".BatteryCorrectHorse said:It’s also a huge moment to have a female and black leader of a party. That’s credit to the Tories.
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-leadership-latest-kemi-badenoch-robert-jenrick-budget-politics-live-12593360#85496361 -
Dont mind Boris or Phillipson at those kind of prices. Kemi feels about right at 4.3.Andy_JS said:Next PM
Badenoch 4.3
Farage 9.4
Reeves 11
Rayner 23
Johnson 23
Streeting 26
Phillipson 48
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/uk-next-prime-minister/prime-minister-after-keir-starmer-betting-1.2304347950 -
I'm not sure.flanner2 said:
Has Tory membership EVER been that low? Because since members were allowed to vote for Leader (2001), membership's more than halvedMattW said:Total Tory membership: 131,680 eligible electors.
I was out by a 20k underestimate.
But that's down by nearly a quarter since September 2022.
So where will they get their candidates from in 2028/2029? And how many activists will there be to do all the things Tory activists used to do back in the days Tory when activism dominated daily life in most of the country?
Face it: By 2028, there'll be no Tory party. And with Farage self-destroying as he always does, there'll be nowhere for Tories to go.
So the outcome's simple to predict. Starmer (or another Labour MP) will be back in four or five years for another term,, while the LibDems lead the kind of sane but robust Opposition Starmer needs
They never really counted them countrywide.
There have been previous claims, but no data,
A factor is that current membership is £39, which is quite a lot. One possibility is that they could go for something like a £1 under-30 membership, but that will only deliver real political benefit once there are at least some identified and consistent values and principles in place.
IMO they need an intelligentsia, for one thing.0 -
So secret that it was trailed weeks before.BatteryCorrectHorse said:The Tories have made it harder to remove new leader Kemi Badenoch.
Sir Bob Blackman, the chairman of the 1922 committee tells me for @GBNEWS that the threshold to trigger a vote of no confidence has been secretly increased from 15pc to 33 pc of the Parliamentary party.
This means that 40 MPs will be needed to trigger a vote of no confidence in Badenoch, rather than 18 MPs under the old 15pc rule.
The change was made at a private meeting of the 1922's executive last Wednesday.
https://x.com/christopherhope/status/18526800816021590616 -
Doesn't sound that secret.BatteryCorrectHorse said:The Tories have made it harder to remove new leader Kemi Badenoch.
Sir Bob Blackman, the chairman of the 1922 committee tells me for @GBNEWS that the threshold to trigger a vote of no confidence has been secretly increased from 15pc to 33 pc of the Parliamentary party.
This means that 40 MPs will be needed to trigger a vote of no confidence in Badenoch, rather than 18 MPs under the old 15pc rule.
The change was made at a private meeting of the 1922's executive last Wednesday.
https://x.com/christopherhope/status/18526800816021590616 -
You get that a lot with 'secret' plans, 'stealth' tax rises, 'leaked' plans which are actually just published somewhere. Media just love to make things more dramatic.RobD said:
So secret that it was trailed weeks before.BatteryCorrectHorse said:The Tories have made it harder to remove new leader Kemi Badenoch.
Sir Bob Blackman, the chairman of the 1922 committee tells me for @GBNEWS that the threshold to trigger a vote of no confidence has been secretly increased from 15pc to 33 pc of the Parliamentary party.
This means that 40 MPs will be needed to trigger a vote of no confidence in Badenoch, rather than 18 MPs under the old 15pc rule.
The change was made at a private meeting of the 1922's executive last Wednesday.
https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1852680081602159061
And do they expect meetings of the 1992's executive committee to be livestreamed or something?0 -
Slight correction to the result. Jenrick got 41,388 not 41,318.
Badenoch 53,806 (56.52%)
Jenrick 41,388 (43.48%)1 -
That line could presumably be used whichever Tory MP the Tories chose as leaderwilliamglenn said:
Ellie Reeves, chair of the Labour Party, has said Kemi Badenoch's election as Tory leader shows the party is "incapable of change".BatteryCorrectHorse said:It’s also a huge moment to have a female and black leader of a party. That’s credit to the Tories.
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-leadership-latest-kemi-badenoch-robert-jenrick-budget-politics-live-12593360#85496362 -
Nah. As I say, people over think this. One terms Governments are rare (and even more rare with a stonking majority the first time) so the Tories should have no chance whatever they do. That they have some chance is because of Starmer’s low starting score and the scope to attract non-Labour voters, mostly from Reform, and often quite low hanging fruit if she goes for a 35% strategy.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
It isn’t going to be Badenoch’s turn into 2029 if she doesn’t do anything to change the party.biggles said:
People over think this. It’s also just that the political wheel has turned in Canada. Corbyn could have won here this year. Eventually it’s just your “turn”.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.
Frankly I think the Tory hopes in 2029 are virtually zero but if the Tories want to do anything they will need to offer an alternative then.
This “you must change and move to the perceived centre” advice, dispensed to Tories and Labour when they lose is usually nonsense.
Smith would have won well from the left in ‘97 and Davis could have got Cameron’s score in 2010 from the right (albeit coalition might have be trickier to agree). Corbyn would have won in 2024.
The “change the party” stuff overstates the ability of the parties to change anything.
3 -
Incapable of change by electing the first ever black woman to lead a UK party?kle4 said:
That's an...interesting take.williamglenn said:
Ellie Reeves, chair of the Labour Party, has said Kemi Badenoch's election as Tory leader shows the party is "incapable of change".BatteryCorrectHorse said:It’s also a huge moment to have a female and black leader of a party. That’s credit to the Tories.
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-leadership-latest-kemi-badenoch-robert-jenrick-budget-politics-live-12593360#8549636
I suppose it is true in the sense that the Tories have once again elected a Tory as their leader, and that will not change (unless they capitulate to the Farage fanboys in their ranks).2 -
But still a Tory. Until they elect a Labour Party member as their leader, have the Tories really changed?DoubleCarpet said:
Incapable of change by electing the first ever black woman to lead a UK party?kle4 said:
That's an...interesting take.williamglenn said:
Ellie Reeves, chair of the Labour Party, has said Kemi Badenoch's election as Tory leader shows the party is "incapable of change".BatteryCorrectHorse said:It’s also a huge moment to have a female and black leader of a party. That’s credit to the Tories.
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-leadership-latest-kemi-badenoch-robert-jenrick-budget-politics-live-12593360#8549636
I suppose it is true in the sense that the Tories have once again elected a Tory as their leader, and that will not change (unless they capitulate to the Farage fanboys in their ranks).3 -
I've been surprised at the lack of chaos from the Tories - frankly perhaps they should have acted as though more in a panic, after the drubbing they received.RobD said:
A summer of conservative chaos? What on earth are they talking about?williamglenn said:
Ellie Reeves, chair of the Labour Party, has said Kemi Badenoch's election as Tory leader shows the party is "incapable of change".BatteryCorrectHorse said:It’s also a huge moment to have a female and black leader of a party. That’s credit to the Tories.
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-leadership-latest-kemi-badenoch-robert-jenrick-budget-politics-live-12593360#85496361 -
Mass social house building. Call it council housing if you want. With a staggered rent to own option. The chancellor has just loosened the infrastructure capital build strings. Use it to build five million housesBatteryCorrectHorse said:
The issue Badenoch will face on housing is her party being utterly opposed to doing anything about planning.Sandpit said:
The three largest issues facing the country are housing, housing, and planning.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.
So there is a wide open goal for Starmer here but if he misses then Badenoch has her opening.
2 -
Good grief.williamglenn said:
Ellie Reeves, chair of the Labour Party, has said Kemi Badenoch's election as Tory leader shows the party is "incapable of change".BatteryCorrectHorse said:It’s also a huge moment to have a female and black leader of a party. That’s credit to the Tories.
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-leadership-latest-kemi-badenoch-robert-jenrick-budget-politics-live-12593360#8549636
In the Conference speech Badenoch said:
' ...And this is not just because of the mistakes Labour are making – and they are making many mistakes.
It's because of the mistakes that we made.
... we ended up mired in scandal, unable to deliver on our promises and fundamentally distrusted.
It's time for something different.'
1 -
I would like to thank Mr Cleverly for my first ever political betting loss. Badenoch was the only negative outcome on my book.2
-
Harold Wilson, on being asked what he thought of Macmillan's likely successors:Cookie said:
That line could presumably be used whichever Tory MP the Tories chose as leaderwilliamglenn said:
Ellie Reeves, chair of the Labour Party, has said Kemi Badenoch's election as Tory leader shows the party is "incapable of change".BatteryCorrectHorse said:It’s also a huge moment to have a female and black leader of a party. That’s credit to the Tories.
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-leadership-latest-kemi-badenoch-robert-jenrick-budget-politics-live-12593360#8549636
'I intend to play the ball, not the man.'
Wilson, on hearing of Home's appointment:
'After half a century of democratic progress the whole thing has been brought to a halt by elevating a 14th Earl.'
Home, response:
'Mr Wilson is the 14th Mr Wilson.'1 -
I'm sure Reeves will issue an apologetic correction.Stocky said:
Good grief.williamglenn said:
Ellie Reeves, chair of the Labour Party, has said Kemi Badenoch's election as Tory leader shows the party is "incapable of change".BatteryCorrectHorse said:It’s also a huge moment to have a female and black leader of a party. That’s credit to the Tories.
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-leadership-latest-kemi-badenoch-robert-jenrick-budget-politics-live-12593360#8549636
In the Conference speech Badenoch said:
' ...And this is not just because of the mistakes Labour are making – and they are making many mistakes.
It's because of the mistakes that we made.
... we ended up mired in scandal, unable to deliver on our promises and fundamentally distrusted.
It's time for something different.'0 -
So when do we get shadow cabinet jobs? Today?0
-
It will be interesting to see if the "Kemi-Kaze car" sheds rhetorical wheels in various directions, and whether that will matter at all.
Given that Saturday is even-more-off-topic day, I'm reminded of this bluegrass (TBF may be slightly more old time) Gospel song: "Flying by the Seat of Your Pants." Will she do that, or is there a Plan?
Films of ancient aircraft, and lots of nice finger picking. I can't quite decide whether it is banjo, mandolin or something else.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kdWkVA-VBs
The performer is one Don Franciso, who is still in harness at the age of 78.
Have a good day all.1 -
Whilst they dont necessarily need to move left or right they do need something a bit more coherent and less factional within their own party. If you voted conservative last couple of elections you could have ended up with Trussite "boldness", spreadsheet Rishi, an anti-woke agenda or Boris and cake. It is quite unlikely anyone is really in favour of all of those flavours. And voters hate a divided party, for good reason.biggles said:
Nah. As I say, people over think this. One terms Governments are rare (and even more rare with a stonking majority the first time) so the Tories should have no chance whatever they do. That they have some chance is because of Starmer’s low starting score and the scope to attract non-Labour voters, mostly from Reform, and often quite low hanging fruit if she goes for a 35% strategy.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
It isn’t going to be Badenoch’s turn into 2029 if she doesn’t do anything to change the party.biggles said:
People over think this. It’s also just that the political wheel has turned in Canada. Corbyn could have won here this year. Eventually it’s just your “turn”.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.
Frankly I think the Tory hopes in 2029 are virtually zero but if the Tories want to do anything they will need to offer an alternative then.
This “you must change and move to the perceived centre” advice, dispensed to Tories and Labour when they lose is usually nonsense.
Smith would have won well from the left in ‘97 and Davis could have got Cameron’s score in 2010 from the right (albeit coalition might have be trickier to agree). Corbyn would have won in 2024.
The “change the party” stuff overstates the ability of the parties to change anything.0 -
Badenoch is value, probability-wise, but still unbackable IMO due to the time to settlement.Andy_JS said:Next PM
Badenoch 4.3
Farage 9.4
Reeves 11
Rayner 23
Johnson 23
Streeting 26
Phillipson 48
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/uk-next-prime-minister/prime-minister-after-keir-starmer-betting-1.2304347952 -
If you think she will get off to a good start (or Labour a bad one) you could easily be able to lay off at 3 within the next year and get your stake back. Settlement is less relevant on a liquid exchange market.Stocky said:
Badenoch is value, probability-wise, but still unbackable IMO due to the time to settlement.Andy_JS said:Next PM
Badenoch 4.3
Farage 9.4
Reeves 11
Rayner 23
Johnson 23
Streeting 26
Phillipson 48
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/uk-next-prime-minister/prime-minister-after-keir-starmer-betting-1.2304347952 -
The Boris and Farage odds are bonkers. And Boris should be more likely than Farage, albeit quite unlikely himself.Stocky said:
Badenoch is value, probability-wise, but still unbackable IMO due to the time to settlement.Andy_JS said:Next PM
Badenoch 4.3
Farage 9.4
Reeves 11
Rayner 23
Johnson 23
Streeting 26
Phillipson 48
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/uk-next-prime-minister/prime-minister-after-keir-starmer-betting-1.230434795
2 -
She’ll likely be close to evens at some point in the next four years, when there’s a crisis in government.Stocky said:
Badenoch is value, probability-wise, but still unbackable IMO due to the time to settlement.Andy_JS said:Next PM
Badenoch 4.3
Farage 9.4
Reeves 11
Rayner 23
Johnson 23
Streeting 26
Phillipson 48
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/uk-next-prime-minister/prime-minister-after-keir-starmer-betting-1.2304347950 -
So clever and biting, random twitter idiot.
The Tory Party have elected their new leader, white nationalist Kemi Badenoch.
https://nitter.poast.org/EsheruKwaku/status/1852671484998684860#m1 -
Name recognition.biggles said:
The Boris and Farage odds are bonkers. And Boris should be more likely than Farage, albeit quite unlikely himself.Stocky said:
Badenoch is value, probability-wise, but still unbackable IMO due to the time to settlement.Andy_JS said:Next PM
Badenoch 4.3
Farage 9.4
Reeves 11
Rayner 23
Johnson 23
Streeting 26
Phillipson 48
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/uk-next-prime-minister/prime-minister-after-keir-starmer-betting-1.2304347951 -
The last Conservative politicians who impressed me were Steve Baker and (don't laugh) JRM, who both exhibited the capacity to analyse and act necessary for politics. That's not to say I agreed with them, it is to say that I could follow their arguments and found them to be relevant. Kemi isn't stupid - she has a computer science degree - but I think she's more gut than head.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Gove also helped draft the worst piece of property relayed legislation ever written so said my solicitor friend.Sandpit said:
Gove had good ideas but was shut down by the NIMBYs in the party, who mostly lost to the Lib Dems anyway.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The issue Badenoch will face on housing is her party being utterly opposed to doing anything about planning.Sandpit said:
The three largest issues facing the country are housing, housing, and planning.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.
So there is a wide open goal for Starmer here but if he misses then Badenoch has her opening.
Time to do the right thing, there’s more than four years until the next election.
But overall I rate Gove as a skilled operator.
The best the Tories had were Gauke and Stewart. Both gone.0 -
Narunder Kaur who for some reason pops up in my tweets now and then is first out of the gate for tweets she’ll regret. A “blackface puppet”.1
-
.
Only took a few minutes.WildernessPt2 said:Narunder Kaur who for some reason pops up in my tweets now and then is first out of the gate for tweets she’ll regret. A “blackface puppet”.
3 -
I disagree. They are the only ones who have shown themselves capable of putting together a coalition of the right. I doubt Kemi will be up to the challenge and a leadership contest around 2027 would be plausible for either Boris or Farage.biggles said:
The Boris and Farage odds are bonkers. And Boris should be more likely than Farage, albeit quite unlikely himself.Stocky said:
Badenoch is value, probability-wise, but still unbackable IMO due to the time to settlement.Andy_JS said:Next PM
Badenoch 4.3
Farage 9.4
Reeves 11
Rayner 23
Johnson 23
Streeting 26
Phillipson 48
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/uk-next-prime-minister/prime-minister-after-keir-starmer-betting-1.2304347951 -
she did bugger all as a minster, more interested in promoting culture war shiteviewcode said:
The last Conservative politicians who impressed me were Steve Baker and (don't laugh) JRM, who both exhibited the capacity to analyse and act necessary for politics. That's not to say I agreed with them, it is to say that I could follow their arguments and found them to be relevant. Kemi isn't stupid - she has a computer science degree - but I think she's more gut than head.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Gove also helped draft the worst piece of property relayed legislation ever written so said my solicitor friend.Sandpit said:
Gove had good ideas but was shut down by the NIMBYs in the party, who mostly lost to the Lib Dems anyway.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The issue Badenoch will face on housing is her party being utterly opposed to doing anything about planning.Sandpit said:
The three largest issues facing the country are housing, housing, and planning.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.
So there is a wide open goal for Starmer here but if he misses then Badenoch has her opening.
Time to do the right thing, there’s more than four years until the next election.
But overall I rate Gove as a skilled operator.
The best the Tories had were Gauke and Stewart. Both gone.1 -
She is also a LAWYER.viewcode said:
The last Conservative politicians who impressed me were Steve Baker and (don't laugh) JRM, who both exhibited the capacity to analyse and act necessary for politics. That's not to say I agreed with them, it is to say that I could follow their arguments and found them to be relevant. Kemi isn't stupid - she has a computer science degree - but I think she's more gut than head.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Gove also helped draft the worst piece of property relayed legislation ever written so said my solicitor friend.Sandpit said:
Gove had good ideas but was shut down by the NIMBYs in the party, who mostly lost to the Lib Dems anyway.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The issue Badenoch will face on housing is her party being utterly opposed to doing anything about planning.Sandpit said:
The three largest issues facing the country are housing, housing, and planning.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.
So there is a wide open goal for Starmer here but if he misses then Badenoch has her opening.
Time to do the right thing, there’s more than four years until the next election.
But overall I rate Gove as a skilled operator.
The best the Tories had were Gauke and Stewart. Both gone.
(Though I can't see any reason why she would have done it, other than people believe it is beneficial for more generalist positions.)
1 -
People have been storing up their unique and totally not racist 'insights' for just this moment.RobD said:.
Only took a few minutes.WildernessPt2 said:Narunder Kaur who for some reason pops up in my tweets now and then is first out of the gate for tweets she’ll regret. A “blackface puppet”.
Had to counterbalance that deisre against the chance to say 'of course the Tory Members voted against the non-white candidate, just like they did last time'.1 -
Promoting culture war? Isn’t that a bit like accusing Ukraine of promoting a war against Putin when they realized he’s marching half way to their capital and they need to start mobilizing the troops?Tres said:
she did bugger all as a minster, more interested in promoting culture war shiteviewcode said:
The last Conservative politicians who impressed me were Steve Baker and (don't laugh) JRM, who both exhibited the capacity to analyse and act necessary for politics. That's not to say I agreed with them, it is to say that I could follow their arguments and found them to be relevant. Kemi isn't stupid - she has a computer science degree - but I think she's more gut than head.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Gove also helped draft the worst piece of property relayed legislation ever written so said my solicitor friend.Sandpit said:
Gove had good ideas but was shut down by the NIMBYs in the party, who mostly lost to the Lib Dems anyway.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The issue Badenoch will face on housing is her party being utterly opposed to doing anything about planning.Sandpit said:
The three largest issues facing the country are housing, housing, and planning.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.
So there is a wide open goal for Starmer here but if he misses then Badenoch has her opening.
Time to do the right thing, there’s more than four years until the next election.
But overall I rate Gove as a skilled operator.
The best the Tories had were Gauke and Stewart. Both gone.5 -
I couldn't follow JRM's arguments because he was an unprincipled revolutionary who cloaked his revolutionary ideas (such as the idea the MPs had no right to remove a leader, despite previously arguing a leader winning a vote of confidence should go because they did not win by enough) with the pretence of constitutionalism.viewcode said:
The last Conservative politicians who impressed me were Steve Baker and (don't laugh) JRM, who both exhibited the capacity to analyse and act necessary for politics. That's not to say I agreed with them, it is to say that I could follow their arguments and found them to be relevant. Kemi isn't stupid - she has a computer science degree - but I think she's more gut than head.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Gove also helped draft the worst piece of property relayed legislation ever written so said my solicitor friend.Sandpit said:
Gove had good ideas but was shut down by the NIMBYs in the party, who mostly lost to the Lib Dems anyway.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The issue Badenoch will face on housing is her party being utterly opposed to doing anything about planning.Sandpit said:
The three largest issues facing the country are housing, housing, and planning.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.
So there is a wide open goal for Starmer here but if he misses then Badenoch has her opening.
Time to do the right thing, there’s more than four years until the next election.
But overall I rate Gove as a skilled operator.
The best the Tories had were Gauke and Stewart. Both gone.2 -
Don't know whether this poll is any use, but it does make me feel better about yesterday's punt on Arizona at 3.7 on Betfair.
Times (UK)/ YouGov battleground state polls
(10/25-10/30)
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/1852447512457568734
0 -
Right, so the thing is, are we going to get any decent by-elections out of this? Will there be a general clearing of the decks, with some of the old guard going off to spend more time with their money? Can anyone really see Rishi Sunak hanging around on the backbenches?1
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Since it is all coming down to coin flips and court decisions I'll take some positive spins just for the feeling.Nigelb said:Don't know whether this poll is any use, but it does make me feel better about yesterday's punt on Arizona at 3.7 on Betfair.
Times (UK)/ YouGov battleground state polls
(10/25-10/30)
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/18524475124575687340 -
He could do a Gordon Brown and stick it out, but half arse it while he focused on other things.AugustusCarp2 said:Right, so the thing is, are we going to get any decent by-elections out of this? Will there be a general clearing of the decks, with some of the old guard going off to spend more time with their money? Can anyone really see Rishi Sunak hanging around on the backbenches?
1 -
not really, some things ARE a war, some things are not, and Kemi would be wise to realise thatWildernessPt2 said:
Promoting culture war? Isn’t that a bit like accusing Ukraine of promoting a war against Putin when they realized he’s marching half way to their capital and they need to start mobilizing the troops?Tres said:
she did bugger all as a minster, more interested in promoting culture war shiteviewcode said:
The last Conservative politicians who impressed me were Steve Baker and (don't laugh) JRM, who both exhibited the capacity to analyse and act necessary for politics. That's not to say I agreed with them, it is to say that I could follow their arguments and found them to be relevant. Kemi isn't stupid - she has a computer science degree - but I think she's more gut than head.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Gove also helped draft the worst piece of property relayed legislation ever written so said my solicitor friend.Sandpit said:
Gove had good ideas but was shut down by the NIMBYs in the party, who mostly lost to the Lib Dems anyway.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The issue Badenoch will face on housing is her party being utterly opposed to doing anything about planning.Sandpit said:
The three largest issues facing the country are housing, housing, and planning.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
As best I can work out the Canadian guy has gone after housing.kle4 said:
Going after the grey vote is understandably tempting, it votes more after all, and can really punish you if they take against you. But you do need to make inroads lower down if you are to have a longterm chance. Isn't that what the Canadian Tory leader has done?BatteryCorrectHorse said:
The problem as Sunak found is that without Brexit there is little to unite the 2019 coalition.LostPassword said:
It will be interesting to see what the key message is that she tries to communicate to the public.BartholomewRoberts said:A result that seems to have united PB as being the right result.
If only because the one person worse than Bad Enoch is Paint over Mickey Mouse Jenrick.
Going after Reform voters will not work in my view.
Hence why I said she needs to re-orient the party towards “working people” under the age of 60. There are votes to be won there.
That's advice for left and right btw, so I hope it is acceptable.
Badenoch would be wise to do the same.
So there is a wide open goal for Starmer here but if he misses then Badenoch has her opening.
Time to do the right thing, there’s more than four years until the next election.
But overall I rate Gove as a skilled operator.
The best the Tories had were Gauke and Stewart. Both gone.0 -
Is there a price for NOTA ?Andy_JS said:Next PM
Badenoch 4.3
Farage 9.4
Reeves 11
Rayner 23
Johnson 23
Streeting 26
Phillipson 48
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/uk-next-prime-minister/prime-minister-after-keir-starmer-betting-1.2304347950 -
We didn't have to wait long.kle4 said:So clever and biting, random twitter idiot.
The Tory Party have elected their new leader, white nationalist Kemi Badenoch.
https://nitter.poast.org/EsheruKwaku/status/1852671484998684860#m0 -
That's a good point.biggles said:
A improvement on his Dad’s temper though. He restrained himself from genocide by flood (or trumpet, oddly) when he got pissed off.Malmesbury said:
The moneychangers-at-the-temple indicate a chap with a robust approach to things he doesn't like.Fishing said:
In fairness, Christ probably would have made a very poor UK party leader.viewcode said:
That sentence really needs a comma 😃bigjohnowls said:Christ makes SKS look like the lesser of 2 evils
- no killer instinct
- no liking for freebies
- tolerance for internal traitors
- no ability to be two-faced, insincere or hypocritical when necessary
I mean, have you ever met a third world money exchange guy? Gentle, philosophical and relaxed is not really their thing.
The Old Testament Jehovah would have made a much better party leader:
- spiteful
- malicious
- megalomanic delusions of grandeur
- determined to make the law for everyone
- demanding freebies ("sacrifices") all the time
In fact rather over-qualified if anything2 -
An interesting thing was that you could still make a 7% profit backing the winner a few seconds before the result was announced.2
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It's probably not as stupid as it sounds, but I am still a sucker for taking cheap shots like this myself.
2 -
The most ruthless electorate in the world, we are told.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
Er, nah. I voted Kemi because she's Kemi.BatteryCorrectHorse said:It’s also a huge moment to have a female and black leader of a party. That’s credit to the Tories.
I'm really tired of the first and first stuff, and so I think is everyone else.
We judge people as individuals.4 -
Tony Blair. Elect him as leader.kle4 said:
But still a Tory. Until they elect a Labour Party member as their leader, have the Tories really changed?DoubleCarpet said:
Incapable of change by electing the first ever black woman to lead a UK party?kle4 said:
That's an...interesting take.williamglenn said:
Ellie Reeves, chair of the Labour Party, has said Kemi Badenoch's election as Tory leader shows the party is "incapable of change".BatteryCorrectHorse said:It’s also a huge moment to have a female and black leader of a party. That’s credit to the Tories.
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-leadership-latest-kemi-badenoch-robert-jenrick-budget-politics-live-12593360#8549636
I suppose it is true in the sense that the Tories have once again elected a Tory as their leader, and that will not change (unless they capitulate to the Farage fanboys in their ranks).0 -
Good idea.noneoftheabove said:
Doesn't sound that secret.BatteryCorrectHorse said:The Tories have made it harder to remove new leader Kemi Badenoch.
Sir Bob Blackman, the chairman of the 1922 committee tells me for @GBNEWS that the threshold to trigger a vote of no confidence has been secretly increased from 15pc to 33 pc of the Parliamentary party.
This means that 40 MPs will be needed to trigger a vote of no confidence in Badenoch, rather than 18 MPs under the old 15pc rule.
The change was made at a private meeting of the 1922's executive last Wednesday.
https://x.com/christopherhope/status/18526800816021590610 -
I think Rishi will stick around for a year or so and then seek an exit. Let the new leader bed in and then get gone.0
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Bit like the famous warning on a packet of peanuts.kle4 said:It's probably not as stupid as it sounds, but I am still a sucker for taking cheap shots like this myself.
"May contain nuts"
EDIT: Though, to be fair, I've found a number of top end steak places do really excellent salads. The thinking apparently is "He goes there for the 18oz T-Bone. She has the salad."0 -
He he has any sense. Yes. I agree. Or even before then!numbertwelve said:I think Rishi will stick around for a year or so and then seek an exit. Let the new leader bed in and then get gone.
0 -
Sure, and I think that's genuinely true (it's why there are many many non-white MPs representing deep rural adn very white seats), but the party is definitely going to want to note the situation.Casino_Royale said:
Er, nah. I voted Kemi because she's Kemi.BatteryCorrectHorse said:It’s also a huge moment to have a female and black leader of a party. That’s credit to the Tories.
I'm really tired of the first and first stuff, and so I think is everyone else.
We judge people as individuals.0
This discussion has been closed.