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For the first time in nearly three years the Tories lead in the polls – politicalbetting.com

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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    SKS fans please explain

    Don't panic Casino. There's always swingback.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    edited November 2

    Sandpit said:

    Is Rishi Sunak the first party leader in decades to leave office ahead in the polls?

    No.

    David Cameron (pbuh) led in the polls when he retired.

    Indeed he led in more polls with bigger leads.
    Speaking off, have you been moonlighting as a new Tory MP?

    My interview with the youngest new Tory MP @ShivaniRaja_LE

    🗳️Why she almost didn’t vote in the leadership election
    ⚖️ ‘Yes, why not’ explore leaving the ECHR
    😍 Crush on David Cameron: ‘he’s just so charismatic and charming’

    https://nitter.poast.org/harriet_symonds/status/1851965918022148179#m
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950

    GIN1138 said:

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    Isn't "Tory" / "Tories" more of a nickname / term of abuse? The Conservatives don't use "Tory" in any official capacity and I suspect even of they change their name from "Conservatives" people will still use "Tory" as a term of abuse... Lets face it, the name has survived since 1832 lol...
    If the Tories elect their second consecutive non white leader (and fourth woman leader) then they should rename themselves as the Progressives as a contrast to the pale, stale, and male Labour party.
    Shame British National Party is already taken.
    The Freedom Party? Some brothers in arms on the continent.
    The MEGA Party. Make England Great Again would be current and capture the mood of a changing world.
    Supreme Make England Great Again, keeping that essential Tory cheesiness.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
    Because the last poll only had Badenoch winning by 4%, the poll prior to that had her defeating Jenrick by 18%.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/01/is-kemi-kaze-badenoch-about-to-blow-an-18-lead/
    Polls are always informative.
    Can I introduce Robert Cahally's Trafalgar Group to you?
    They inform, not necessarily in the manner they intend.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,032
    edited November 2

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    So they'd be even further ahead if they changed their name? And as far as I can tell they don't really have a direction and haven't for years, unless drifting aimlessly between news cycles counts.

    Nothing they do will matter much for four years - it'll all be how badly Labour screws up. Corbyn, one of the least popular opposition leaders in decades, got 40% in 2017.

    The signs are good for the Conservatives so far, but it's very early days.
  • The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
    Same here but I know why I have the feeling of unease.

    It's a direct consequence of the feeling of unease I have that there is a large enough proportion of the Tory membership who are racist to tip the balance.
    It is not racists that Kemi needs worry about but academic snobs. Jenrick is a Cambridge-educated lawyer who went to Cambridge and Kemi went to Sussex, what we used to call a plate glass university.

    On the other hand, Kemi worked at McDonalds like the next POTUS.
    Macdonalds you say. Erm. Was that where Trump had a rally? Coincidence. Hmm.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,633
    edited November 2
    The new Tory leader is elected and immediately turn their sights on Reform. They denounce the hard right and set out a new big tent on the centre right of British politics. The nasty culture war rhetoric is gone. There is no more fuck business or ideological nonsense. No more drill baby drill or denial of facts for political purposes. No more favours for mates. Policy isn’t focused on Daily Mail headlines.

    A pragmatic, entrepreneurial, evidence based, progressive right of centre with an eye on future emerges.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,342
    If Trump wins the Sunbelt plus Georgia (which you’d expect on current polling), and Harris wins the Rustbelt (likewise), that makes it 268 - 269 in the EC, with the result turning on Omaha.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,845
    The important thing imo is the turnout.

    Below 60 per cent and Kemi or Jenrick (but Kemi) will be ripe for replacement in two years because such a low figure would mean no enthusiasm for the new leader in the party, allied to a minority in the Commons (because of the 3-way split with Cleverly).
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,043
    edited November 2

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Perfectly normal again.

    Trump: Liz Cheney would not fight. I will go with her, wherever she wants, and we will fight. She doesn't have the guts to fight. She's all talk and no action.
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1852473139227509129

    President 'Bone Spurs' says others wouldn't fight...
    It has to be said, to be fair to Trump, as President he didn't generally send troops abroad. He talked a lot, but in the end confined himself mostly to random dronings. It's one reason why American prestige (which is essentially based on fear) was at a low ebb when Biden came in.

    It was America where he sent others off to fight while chickening out himself...
    The only thing worse than US intervention abroad is US non-intervention.

    A multipolar world would not be one where big powers respected the sovereignty of smaller powers, or respected human rights.
    Which war and what date was the last time American soldiers were sent into combat? As opposed to weapons being used by themselves.
    There are still US troops in Syria, and they were involved in ground operations as late as last year. They defended themselves from drone attacks this year.

    There are also US troops in Somalia, with a SEAL team in action against Islamic State in Somalia in 2023.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    edited November 2

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    This is an old canard. But the term has been in use for hundreds of years so is unlikely to go anywhere.
    It's a classic consultant move to suggest trying to change a word or phrase will be significant - it speaks to our desire for easy solutions.

    I'm sure there's been cases it has worked - the club baby seals party becoming the animal engagement party or something - but it seems unlikely.

    Also, their name isn't even the Tories but the legacy name has still stuck for 100 years, so it's a silly idea on its face as any new name would not catch on. This isn't Brexit becoming Reform.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,845
    The betting says it is all over.

    Kemi 1.08 but 1.13 to lay
    Bob J 9.2 but 55 to lay. You can't give him away.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    Isn't "Tory" / "Tories" more of a nickname / term of abuse? The Conservatives don't use "Tory" in any official capacity and I suspect even of they change their name from "Conservatives" people will still use "Tory" as a term of abuse... Lets face it, the name has survived since 1832 lol...
    If the Tories elect their second consecutive non white leader (and fourth woman leader) then they should rename themselves as the Progressives as a contrast to the pale, stale, and male Labour party.
    Shame British National Party is already taken.
    The Freedom Party? Some brothers in arms on the continent.
    The MEGA Party. Make England Great Again would be current and capture the mood of a changing world.
    Supreme Make England Great Again, keeping that essential Tory cheesiness.
    Knees up in Clacton.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    Jonathan said:

    The new Tory leader is elected and immediately turn their sights on Reform. They denounce the hard right and set out a new big tent on the centre right of British politics. The nasty culture war rhetoric is gone. There is no more fuck business or ideological nonsense. No more drill baby drill or denial of facts for political purposes. No more favours for mates. Policy isn’t focused on Daily Mail headlines.

    A pragmatic, entrepreneurial, evidence based, progressive right of centre with an eye on future emerges.

    They need to deal with the Reform problem, but how would that approach do that? It seems opposite of Big Tent.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Jonathan said:

    The new Tory leader is elected and immediately turn their sights on Reform. They denounce the hard right and set out a new big tent on the centre right of British politics. The nasty culture war rhetoric is gone. There is no more fuck business or ideological nonsense. No more drill baby drill or denial of facts for political purposes. No more favours for mates. Policy isn’t focused on Daily Mail headlines.

    A pragmatic, entrepreneurial, evidence based, progressive right of centre with an eye on future emerges.

    Add join the Customs Union and they’d get my vote. But unfortunately, it’s just fantasy.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,633
    kle4 said:

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    This is an old canard. But the term has been in use for hundreds of years so is unlikely to go anywhere.
    It's a classic consultant move to suggest trying to change a word or phrase will be significant - it speaks to our desire for easy solutions.

    I'm sure there's been cases it has worked - the club baby seals party becoming the animal engagement party or something - but it seems unlikely.

    Also, their name isn't even the Tories, but the legacy name has still stuck for 100 years, so it's a silly idea on its face, any new name would not catch on, this isn't Brexit becoming Reform.
    And then again words matter. The more fundamental issue for me is than modern day folk that call themselves conservative are not remotely conservative. The Conservative Party is not conservative.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,342
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    The new Tory leader is elected and immediately turn their sights on Reform. They denounce the hard right and set out a new big tent on the centre right of British politics. The nasty culture war rhetoric is gone. There is no more fuck business or ideological nonsense. No more drill baby drill or denial of facts for political purposes. No more favours for mates. Policy isn’t focused on Daily Mail headlines.

    A pragmatic, entrepreneurial, evidence based, progressive right of centre with an eye on future emerges.

    They need to deal with the Reform problem, but how would that approach do that? It seems opposite of Big Tent.
    I imagine the rationale is to just accept, a fifth of the voters to their right can’t be reached, and focus on Lib Dem and Labour floaters.
  • Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Perfectly normal again.

    Trump: Liz Cheney would not fight. I will go with her, wherever she wants, and we will fight. She doesn't have the guts to fight. She's all talk and no action.
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1852473139227509129

    President 'Bone Spurs' says others wouldn't fight...
    It has to be said, to be fair to Trump, as President he didn't generally send troops abroad. He talked a lot, but in the end confined himself mostly to random dronings. It's one reason why American prestige (which is essentially based on fear) was at a low ebb when Biden came in.

    It was America where he sent others off to fight while chickening out himself...
    The only thing worse than US intervention abroad is US non-intervention.

    A multipolar world would not be one where big powers respected the sovereignty of smaller powers, or respected human rights.
    Which war and what date was the last time American soldiers were sent into combat? As opposed to weapons being used by themselves.
    There are still US troops in Syria, and they were involved in ground operations as late as last year. They defended themselves from drone attacks this year.

    There are also US troops in Somalia, with a SEAL team in action against Islamic State in Somalia in 2023.
    Thanks.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    It's all a bit like Lenny Henry's joke about changing the name of Windscale to Sellafield and nuclear fallout to magic moon beams.

    The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.

    Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
    Boris was the most ‘one nation’ conservative there was. Big spending, irresponsible government.
    Big spending on PPE contracts for friends and family is not one nation Conservatism.
    Labour would have done the same if they'd be in power during the Covid crisis.

    Seriously. They said as much at the time, when they were advocating for unknown companies to get contracts in parliament (and using it as a stick too bash the government with).

    And as we've seen with the good Lord Alli's 'donations'; they're not beyond a little personal grift.

    The alternative was not to get any PPE, or at least in nowhere near as quick time. Yes, it was immensely wasteful; but I cannot see a way, in those fevered months, we could have got the PPE without waste. There was just too much worldwide demand, and ordinary processes just would not work.
    Labour may prove incompetent over the next five years but the PPE fast lanes were venal, unbridled corruption. They were indefensible at the time and they are now.

    Experienced NHS procurement organisations were left of the list whilst brothers and sisters of Ministers with AliExpress accounts were handed millions of tax pounds.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    Isn't "Tory" / "Tories" more of a nickname / term of abuse? The Conservatives don't use "Tory" in any official capacity and I suspect even of they change their name from "Conservatives" people will still use "Tory" as a term of abuse... Lets face it, the name has survived since 1832 lol...
    If the Tories elect their second consecutive non white leader (and fourth woman leader) then they should rename themselves as the Progressives as a contrast to the pale, stale, and male Labour party.
    Shame British National Party is already taken.
    The Freedom Party? Some brothers in arms on the continent.
    The MEGA Party. Make England Great Again would be current and capture the mood of a changing world.
    Supreme Make England Great Again, keeping that essential Tory cheesiness.
    The Party needs to find a way to appeal to younger voters and not just pensioners so maybe they could go down the Education, Education, Education route.

    Supreme Make England Great Helping Everyone Achieve Dream Starts
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    This is an old canard. But the term has been in use for hundreds of years so is unlikely to go anywhere.
    It's a classic consultant move to suggest trying to change a word or phrase will be significant - it speaks to our desire for easy solutions.

    I'm sure there's been cases it has worked - the club baby seals party becoming the animal engagement party or something - but it seems unlikely.

    Also, their name isn't even the Tories, but the legacy name has still stuck for 100 years, so it's a silly idea on its face, any new name would not catch on, this isn't Brexit becoming Reform.
    And then again words matter. The more fundamental issue for me is than modern day folk that call themselves conservative are not remotely conservative. The Conservative Party is not conservative.
    That is the counter point, and it is not that unusual for the name of a party to not reflect its actual broad ideological slant. Plenty of conservative Liberal parties out there.

    I suppose the question is whether a conservative Conservative Party would do better or worse - there'll be reasons they drifted in the directions they have.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Jonathan said:

    The new Tory leader is elected and immediately turn their sights on Reform. They denounce the hard right and set out a new big tent on the centre right of British politics. The nasty culture war rhetoric is gone. There is no more fuck business or ideological nonsense. No more drill baby drill or denial of facts for political purposes. No more favours for mates. Policy isn’t focused on Daily Mail headlines.

    A pragmatic, entrepreneurial, evidence based, progressive right of centre with an eye on future emerges.

    You don't have money on Jenrick then.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,633
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    The new Tory leader is elected and immediately turn their sights on Reform. They denounce the hard right and set out a new big tent on the centre right of British politics. The nasty culture war rhetoric is gone. There is no more fuck business or ideological nonsense. No more drill baby drill or denial of facts for political purposes. No more favours for mates. Policy isn’t focused on Daily Mail headlines.

    A pragmatic, entrepreneurial, evidence based, progressive right of centre with an eye on future emerges.

    They need to deal with the Reform problem, but how would that approach do that? It seems opposite of Big Tent.
    You need the voters but not their agenda. Offer their voters something better, a route to be better off. Thatcher offers a template. Go heavy on business, which means overturning a few populist shibboleths like trade.

    The Tories simply have to defeat Reform to be competitive. Labour had to defeat the SDP before they could once again challenge Labour.
  • kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is Rishi Sunak the first party leader in decades to leave office ahead in the polls?

    No.

    David Cameron (pbuh) led in the polls when he retired.

    Indeed he led in more polls with bigger leads.
    Speaking off, have you been moonlighting as a new Tory MP?

    My interview with the youngest new Tory MP @ShivaniRaja_LE

    🗳️Why she almost didn’t vote in the leadership election
    ⚖️ ‘Yes, why not’ explore leaving the ECHR
    😍 Crush on David Cameron: ‘he’s just so charismatic and charming’

    https://nitter.poast.org/harriet_symonds/status/1851965918022148179#m
    Make her Tory leader now!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    GIN1138 said:

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    Isn't "Tory" / "Tories" more of a nickname / term of abuse? The Conservatives don't use "Tory" in any official capacity and I suspect even of they change their name from "Conservatives" people will still use "Tory" as a term of abuse... Lets face it, the name has survived since 1832 lol...
    If the Tories elect their second consecutive non white leader (and fourth woman leader) then they should rename themselves as the Progressives as a contrast to the pale, stale, and male Labour party.
    I believe in Canada they had the Progressive Conservatives for awhile. I recall some mockery of the name, but it makes perfect sense to me in the same way you can have liberal conservatives and conservative liberals.

    But as a buzzword progressive seems to have fallen away a bit, I don't recall it coming up all that often even in American commentary.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,348

    SKS fans please explain

    It would have been a bad sign if the budget was popular. The budget I was hoping for would have been even less popular.

    Now they need to make it work.
  • Jonathan said:

    The new Tory leader is elected and immediately turn their sights on Reform. They denounce the hard right and set out a new big tent on the centre right of British politics. The nasty culture war rhetoric is gone. There is no more fuck business or ideological nonsense. No more drill baby drill or denial of facts for political purposes. No more favours for mates. Policy isn’t focused on Daily Mail headlines.

    A pragmatic, entrepreneurial, evidence based, progressive right of centre with an eye on future emerges.

    “Nasty culture war” = stand by idle whilst predatory adults push children down the route of chemical and surgical castration.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,687
    From a neutral's point of view I want whichever candidate is less likely to allow the conservatives to go full british trump with the conspiracy theories and glib easy answers to any problem and of course the lying.

    I would say that is Kemi.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    Tories change the name? Reform, Change, SDP, BNP, Reclaim, Veritas, UKIP, National Front, Brexit, English Defence League, For Britain; all have a catchy ring to them. What could possibly go wrong?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,043
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    This is an old canard. But the term has been in use for hundreds of years so is unlikely to go anywhere.
    It's a classic consultant move to suggest trying to change a word or phrase will be significant - it speaks to our desire for easy solutions.

    I'm sure there's been cases it has worked - the club baby seals party becoming the animal engagement party or something - but it seems unlikely.

    Also, their name isn't even the Tories, but the legacy name has still stuck for 100 years, so it's a silly idea on its face, any new name would not catch on, this isn't Brexit becoming Reform.
    And then again words matter. The more fundamental issue for me is than modern day folk that call themselves conservative are not remotely conservative. The Conservative Party is not conservative.
    That is the counter point, and it is not that unusual for the name of a party to not reflect its actual broad ideological slant. Plenty of conservative Liberal parties out there.

    I suppose the question is whether a conservative Conservative Party would do better or worse - there'll be reasons they drifted in the directions they have.
    There are the Russian Liberal Democrats, who are fascists. The Portuguese Social Democratic Party is centre-right.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,687
    Kemi at 1.05 now
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is Rishi Sunak the first party leader in decades to leave office ahead in the polls?

    No.

    David Cameron (pbuh) led in the polls when he retired.

    Indeed he led in more polls with bigger leads.
    Speaking off, have you been moonlighting as a new Tory MP?

    My interview with the youngest new Tory MP @ShivaniRaja_LE

    🗳️Why she almost didn’t vote in the leadership election
    ⚖️ ‘Yes, why not’ explore leaving the ECHR
    😍 Crush on David Cameron: ‘he’s just so charismatic and charming’

    https://nitter.poast.org/harriet_symonds/status/1851965918022148179#m
    Make her Tory leader now!
    As the sole Tory gain of 2024, she does illustrate a path for other Tories to see success - make sure you are standing against an incumbent who is a criminal and a former incumbent who is laughably corrupt and degenerate.
  • Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    It's all a bit like Lenny Henry's joke about changing the name of Windscale to Sellafield and nuclear fallout to magic moon beams.

    The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.

    Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
    Boris was the most ‘one nation’ conservative there was. Big spending, irresponsible government.
    Big spending on PPE contracts for friends and family is not one nation Conservatism.
    If you have any evidence of this you must contact the police.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    The new Tory leader is elected and immediately turn their sights on Reform. They denounce the hard right and set out a new big tent on the centre right of British politics. The nasty culture war rhetoric is gone. There is no more fuck business or ideological nonsense. No more drill baby drill or denial of facts for political purposes. No more favours for mates. Policy isn’t focused on Daily Mail headlines.

    A pragmatic, entrepreneurial, evidence based, progressive right of centre with an eye on future emerges.

    They need to deal with the Reform problem, but how would that approach do that? It seems opposite of Big Tent.
    I imagine the rationale is to just accept, a fifth of the voters to their right can’t be reached, and focus on Lib Dem and Labour floaters.
    That's the way to a Conservative win. Embracing Farage is a fast track to oblivion.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,576
    GIN1138 said:

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    Isn't "Tory" / "Tories" more of a nickname / term of abuse? The Conservatives don't use "Tory" in any official capacity and I suspect even of they change their name from "Conservatives" people will still use "Tory" as a term of abuse... Lets face it, the name has survived since 1832 lol...
    Exactly. They could change the party name to the Liberal Party, as in Australia, and they'd still be the Tories.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    GIN1138 said:

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    Isn't "Tory" / "Tories" more of a nickname / term of abuse? The Conservatives don't use "Tory" in any official capacity and I suspect even of they change their name from "Conservatives" people will still use "Tory" as a term of abuse... Lets face it, the name has survived since 1832 lol...
    You'd think an election strategist would know that, but here we are.

    If anything that it has survived this long speaks to the strength of the brand, and why would you be so quick as to throw that away? Sure, they lost and lost big, but it was after 14 years in power, it's not necessarily existential already.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    It's all a bit like Lenny Henry's joke about changing the name of Windscale to Sellafield and nuclear fallout to magic moon beams.

    The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.

    Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
    Boris was the most ‘one nation’ conservative there was. Big spending, irresponsible government.
    Big spending on PPE contracts for friends and family is not one nation Conservatism.
    Labour would have done the same if they'd be in power during the Covid crisis.

    Seriously. They said as much at the time, when they were advocating for unknown companies to get contracts in parliament (and using it as a stick too bash the government with).

    And as we've seen with the good Lord Alli's 'donations'; they're not beyond a little personal grift.

    The alternative was not to get any PPE, or at least in nowhere near as quick time. Yes, it was immensely wasteful; but I cannot see a way, in those fevered months, we could have got the PPE without waste. There was just too much worldwide demand, and ordinary processes just would not work.
    Would have. Could have. But the Conservatives did do. I accept there was going to be a high level of waste given the situation was in at the time with PPE. But at least several of the 15 billion of the wasted contracts with corruption red flags could have been prevented with even the most basic of controls. That's several billion, which could go on actual healthcare or lower taxes etc instead of the pockets of cronies of the previous government.

    The Conservatives deserve to be out of power for many years for that reason alone
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    I suspect until the pollsters get their new methodologies in place we're going to see some outlier polls though whether it's Techne or BMG which is the outlier remains to be seen? The seemingly all-powerful Conservatives (no giggling in the cheap seats) did lose two local council by-election seats to the LDs on Thursday.

    The result in Hampshire - probably the last County Council seat to face a by-election as it's barely six months to the full set of elections in May 2025 - was a swing from Conservative to LD of 26% from the 2021 numbers. Now, with all the usual caveats about local council by-elections, that suggests it could be a difficult evening for some Conservatives in parts of the south and south east next May but there's an eternity to go and it's entirely possible Jenrick or Badenoch, much as Hague did, will be able to get local momentum going for the party in the New Year.

    One poll with a one point lead doesn't make an autumn nor does it mean anything much of anything in all honesty though I note the Conservative rise is mirrored by Reform easing back so we might see a rebalancing of this "bloc" of Conservative/Reform voters (or we may not especially if Reform, who also won a seat on Thursday from Labour capitalise on any Westminster by-election).

    It’s hard to see the Conservatives not losing seats (and some councils), to the Lib Dems, in May 2025. They are performing better, relative to 2022-24, but not relative to 2021.

    As against that, they should win some mayoralties, and hold counties comfortably, such as Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, where the main opponent is Labour.

    Labour will likely lose quite a few seats to Reform.


    Conor Sen
    @conorsen
    My God, the Polymarket whale is just some French guy with completely replacement-level views:

    https://x.com/conorsen/status/1852450558088470599

    Am I the only one who barely understood a word of that tweet?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    edited November 2
    Why is it always Liberal Democrat and not Democratic Liberal?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Liberal_Democratic_parties

    (there are a handful listed on another page, but very few).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,022
    Jonathan said:

    The new Tory leader is elected and immediately turn their sights on Reform. They denounce the hard right and set out a new big tent on the centre right of British politics. The nasty culture war rhetoric is gone. There is no more fuck business or ideological nonsense. No more drill baby drill or denial of facts for political purposes. No more favours for mates. Policy isn’t focused on Daily Mail headlines.

    A pragmatic, entrepreneurial, evidence based, progressive right of centre with an eye on future emerges.

    Is that the next leader but one ?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    It's all a bit like Lenny Henry's joke about changing the name of Windscale to Sellafield and nuclear fallout to magic moon beams.

    The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.

    Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
    Boris was the most ‘one nation’ conservative there was. Big spending, irresponsible government.
    Big spending on PPE contracts for friends and family is not one nation Conservatism.
    Labour would have done the same if they'd be in power during the Covid crisis.

    Seriously. They said as much at the time, when they were advocating for unknown companies to get contracts in parliament (and using it as a stick too bash the government with).

    And as we've seen with the good Lord Alli's 'donations'; they're not beyond a little personal grift.

    The alternative was not to get any PPE, or at least in nowhere near as quick time. Yes, it was immensely wasteful; but I cannot see a way, in those fevered months, we could have got the PPE without waste. There was just too much worldwide demand, and ordinary processes just would not work.
    Labour may prove incompetent over the next five years but the PPE fast lanes were venal, unbridled corruption. They were indefensible at the time and they are now.

    Experienced NHS procurement organisations were left of the list whilst brothers and sisters of Ministers with AliExpress accounts were handed millions of tax pounds.
    That is the accusation. But I'd point out we needed an unprecedented amount of PPE, and some/many of those 'experienced NHS procurement organisations' were unable to procure it - they had failed, which was *why* we had to find other methods to get it.

    Labour MPs stood up in parliament and asked, straight-faced, why certain companies were not being asked to supply PPE, as they apparently had loads available. These companies were not, shall we say, established suppliers. Or even, in some cases, very established at all. This was pointed out at the time on here.

    You seem to think that, if Labour had been in charge, that those companies would have automagically got the PPE. I'm saying that's rubbish. There was always going to be a large amount of waste, but it was an emergency situation.
    You are putting words on the page on my behalf. The whataboutary of Labour 's PPE procurement is of no relevance. Millions of taxpayer pounds were spent on faulty PPE, which in itself is a scandal but when allied to the fact this faulty PPE was sold to the NHS at three times the retail price on AliExpress by friends and family of Ministers it is corruption pure and simple.

    Couldn't NHS procurement departments facilitate their own AliExpress accounts to buy faulty PPE?
  • From a neutral's point of view I want whichever candidate is less likely to allow the conservatives to go full british trump with the conspiracy theories and glib easy answers to any problem and of course the lying.

    I would say that is Kemi.

    I’ve thought Kemi is the closest leadership candidate we have had for a generation that is small c conservative. She just needs to focus away from culture wars, though important, onto the things that resonate with voters.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    From a neutral's point of view I want whichever candidate is less likely to allow the conservatives to go full british trump with the conspiracy theories and glib easy answers to any problem and of course the lying.

    I would say that is Kemi.

    Cue 'thanks for the advice from someone who would never consider voting for them' comments, possibly from people who themselves have not voted Tory in a long time.

    I voted Tory in 2017, so I'd think I am capable of being persuaded to vote for them in the future. Though I would agree I think they need to restore the right flank as the first priority, so long as they don't fully alienate the other side.
  • Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    It's all a bit like Lenny Henry's joke about changing the name of Windscale to Sellafield and nuclear fallout to magic moon beams.

    The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.

    Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
    Boris was the most ‘one nation’ conservative there was. Big spending, irresponsible government.
    Big spending on PPE contracts for friends and family is not one nation Conservatism.
    Labour would have done the same if they'd be in power during the Covid crisis.

    Seriously. They said as much at the time, when they were advocating for unknown companies to get contracts in parliament (and using it as a stick too bash the government with).

    And as we've seen with the good Lord Alli's 'donations'; they're not beyond a little personal grift.

    The alternative was not to get any PPE, or at least in nowhere near as quick time. Yes, it was immensely wasteful; but I cannot see a way, in those fevered months, we could have got the PPE without waste. There was just too much worldwide demand, and ordinary processes just would not work.
    Labour may prove incompetent over the next five years but the PPE fast lanes were venal, unbridled corruption. They were indefensible at the time and they are now.

    Experienced NHS procurement organisations were left of the list whilst brothers and sisters of Ministers with AliExpress accounts were handed millions of tax pounds.
    That is the accusation. But I'd point out we needed an unprecedented amount of PPE, and some/many of those 'experienced NHS procurement organisations' were unable to procure it - they had failed, which was *why* we had to find other methods to get it.

    Labour MPs stood up in parliament and asked, straight-faced, why certain companies were not being asked to supply PPE, as they apparently had loads available. These companies were not, shall we say, established suppliers. Or even, in some cases, very established at all. This was pointed out at the time on here.

    You seem to think that, if Labour had been in charge, that those companies would have automagically got the PPE. I'm saying that's rubbish. There was always going to be a large amount of waste, but it was an emergency situation.
    You are putting words on the page on my behalf. The whataboutary of Labour 's PPE procurement is of no relevance. Millions of taxpayer pounds were spent on faulty PPE, which in itself is a scandal but when allied to the fact this faulty PPE was sold to the NHS at three times the retail price on AliExpress by friends and family of Ministers it is corruption pure and simple.

    Couldn't NHS procurement departments facilitate their own AliExpress accounts to buy faulty PPE?
    Which friends and family of ministers? If there is a line between them and any fraud corruption, every one of those former ministers will be going to jail for a long time. Do you have any names ?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806

    From a neutral's point of view I want whichever candidate is less likely to allow the conservatives to go full british trump with the conspiracy theories and glib easy answers to any problem and of course the lying.

    I would say that is Kemi.

    I’ve thought Kemi is the closest leadership candidate we have had for a generation that is small c conservative. She just needs to focus away from culture wars, though important, onto the things that resonate with voters.
    She won’t be able to.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,043

    Jonathan said:

    The new Tory leader is elected and immediately turn their sights on Reform. They denounce the hard right and set out a new big tent on the centre right of British politics. The nasty culture war rhetoric is gone. There is no more fuck business or ideological nonsense. No more drill baby drill or denial of facts for political purposes. No more favours for mates. Policy isn’t focused on Daily Mail headlines.

    A pragmatic, entrepreneurial, evidence based, progressive right of centre with an eye on future emerges.

    “Nasty culture war” = stand by idle whilst predatory adults push children down the route of chemical and surgical castration.
    Gender reassignment surgery is only available for adults in the UK. No permanent changes through pharmaceutical treatment, if that’s what you mean by “chemical… castration”, are used in children either.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,399
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    The new Tory leader is elected and immediately turn their sights on Reform. They denounce the hard right and set out a new big tent on the centre right of British politics. The nasty culture war rhetoric is gone. There is no more fuck business or ideological nonsense. No more drill baby drill or denial of facts for political purposes. No more favours for mates. Policy isn’t focused on Daily Mail headlines.

    A pragmatic, entrepreneurial, evidence based, progressive right of centre with an eye on future emerges.

    They need to deal with the Reform problem, but how would that approach do that? It seems opposite of Big Tent.
    I imagine the rationale is to just accept, a fifth of the voters to their right can’t be reached, and focus on Lib Dem and Labour floaters.
    The Tories need a broad church.

    There's certainly a need for moderate opposition to bien pensant thinking on left-liberal social policies and shibboleths, which, whilst not on its own decisive, is definitely out of kilter to political reality in the country.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,880
    HYUFD said:

    Nonetheless the new Tory leader will be in a far better position than Hague was in 1997 when the Tories were 20%+ behind New Labour when he took over in the polls. Though Reform have also taken from Labour since the general election which helps

    This Labour government are slow burners. But already we're getting a sense of a party in control. Sue Gray WFA and Taylor Swift have slowly disappeared into the ether. The wild anger of the Tories and their newspapers has dissipated and thanks to Rachel we're getting a welcome sense of direction after 9 years of turmoil.

    All we need now is to see some positive moves to dismantle Brexit (short of rejoining) and the Labour/Lib Dem future looks bright
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,399

    Kemi at 1.05 now

    Jenrick flying out

    A surprise looks unlikely but, if it is, it will be one of the biggest ever.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,022
    edited November 2
    That would nudge the geopolitical plates a bit.

    Kazakhstan seeks to form consortium with Korea for $10 bil. nuclear power plant project
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=385460
    ...Kazakhstan, a country abundant in uranium resources, held a national referendum on introducing nuclear power plants. An overwhelming 71.12 percent of voters supported the construction of the plants..
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,546
    FF43 said:

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    It's all a bit like Lenny Henry's joke about changing the name of Windscale to Sellafield and nuclear fallout to magic moon beams.

    The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.

    Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
    Boris was the most ‘one nation’ conservative there was. Big spending, irresponsible government.
    Big spending on PPE contracts for friends and family is not one nation Conservatism.
    Labour would have done the same if they'd be in power during the Covid crisis.

    Seriously. They said as much at the time, when they were advocating for unknown companies to get contracts in parliament (and using it as a stick too bash the government with).

    And as we've seen with the good Lord Alli's 'donations'; they're not beyond a little personal grift.

    The alternative was not to get any PPE, or at least in nowhere near as quick time. Yes, it was immensely wasteful; but I cannot see a way, in those fevered months, we could have got the PPE without waste. There was just too much worldwide demand, and ordinary processes just would not work.
    Would have. Could have. But the Conservatives did do. I accept there was going to be a high level of waste given the situation was in at the time with PPE. But at least several of the 15 billion of the wasted contracts with corruption red flags could have been prevented with even the most basic of controls. That's several billion, which could go on actual healthcare or lower taxes etc instead of the pockets of cronies of the previous government.

    The Conservatives deserve to be out of power for many years for that reason alone
    "Most basic controls"? Tell me what these were, and how they would have allowed us to eliminate waste and still get good PPE. Or are you just inventing it?

    "Hi guvnor," some shady bloke goes. "I've got a million pieces of PPE for you here. Fresh off the back of a lorry."

    "Sorry," says PPE procurement officer. "Can we have a thousand samples so we can spend a fortnight testing them, and then can we have full details of where you're getting them from so we can do a full and thorough check? Oh, and what's your background?"

    SB (sucking through teeth) "You see guvnor, the French aren't doing that, and neither are the Germans. They want this as well. I've come to you first coz I'm a patriot see, despite the fact they're willing to pay more."

    PPEPO: "Sorry, we need to ensure that we're getting value for money. The processes will take three months."

    Result: zero PPE.

    Lots of middlemen made a lot of money. But I fail to see how 'basic controls' would have prevented that, in what was a seller's market with unprecedented demand. IMV the amazing thig is that we got as much as we got.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    That's a steep drop.

    The Botswana Democratic Party just lost an election for the first time in almost 60 years. They are the only governing party an independent Botswana has ever known

    https://nitter.poast.org/PopulismUpdates/status/1852385251575636176#m
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c238n5zr51yo
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,361
    Prominent SNP supporter Janey Godley has died.

    63

    Only four years older than me.

    Enjoy the time you have left guys and gals

    https://news.sky.com/story/scottish-comedian-janey-godley-dies-aged-63-13246433
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited November 2

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    It's all a bit like Lenny Henry's joke about changing the name of Windscale to Sellafield and nuclear fallout to magic moon beams.

    The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.

    Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
    Boris was the most ‘one nation’ conservative there was. Big spending, irresponsible government.
    Big spending on PPE contracts for friends and family is not one nation Conservatism.
    Labour would have done the same if they'd be in power during the Covid crisis.

    Seriously. They said as much at the time, when they were advocating for unknown companies to get contracts in parliament (and using it as a stick too bash the government with).

    And as we've seen with the good Lord Alli's 'donations'; they're not beyond a little personal grift.

    The alternative was not to get any PPE, or at least in nowhere near as quick time. Yes, it was immensely wasteful; but I cannot see a way, in those fevered months, we could have got the PPE without waste. There was just too much worldwide demand, and ordinary processes just would not work.
    Labour may prove incompetent over the next five years but the PPE fast lanes were venal, unbridled corruption. They were indefensible at the time and they are now.

    Experienced NHS procurement organisations were left of the list whilst brothers and sisters of Ministers with AliExpress accounts were handed millions of tax pounds.
    That is the accusation. But I'd point out we needed an unprecedented amount of PPE, and some/many of those 'experienced NHS procurement organisations' were unable to procure it - they had failed, which was *why* we had to find other methods to get it.

    Labour MPs stood up in parliament and asked, straight-faced, why certain companies were not being asked to supply PPE, as they apparently had loads available. These companies were not, shall we say, established suppliers. Or even, in some cases, very established at all. This was pointed out at the time on here.

    You seem to think that, if Labour had been in charge, that those companies would have automagically got the PPE. I'm saying that's rubbish. There was always going to be a large amount of waste, but it was an emergency situation.
    You are putting words on the page on my behalf. The whataboutary of Labour 's PPE procurement is of no relevance. Millions of taxpayer pounds were spent on faulty PPE, which in itself is a scandal but when allied to the fact this faulty PPE was sold to the NHS at three times the retail price on AliExpress by friends and family of Ministers it is corruption pure and simple.

    Couldn't NHS procurement departments facilitate their own AliExpress accounts to buy faulty PPE?
    Even if you accept a degree of dodginess in the contracts given the desperate situation, there is no reason for the dodgy contracts to be directed towards cronies of the government. You would assess all of your options and treat them equally.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,022

    Kemi at 1.05 now

    Jenrick flying out

    A surprise looks unlikely but, if it is, it will be one of the biggest ever.
    Extremely unlikely the result won't have leaked ?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    kle4 said:

    That's a steep drop.

    The Botswana Democratic Party just lost an election for the first time in almost 60 years. They are the only governing party an independent Botswana has ever known

    https://nitter.poast.org/PopulismUpdates/status/1852385251575636176#m
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c238n5zr51yo

    Don’t they know that the Russians can help out with this kind of problem?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,189

    moonshine said:

    Is @Leon facing a life time ban rather than sin bin by the way?

    The focus of PB over the next week or so will be on the US presidential election.

    We are not going to let the dribblings of a soaked up racist popinjay distract PB from one of the biggest betting markets ever.
    Oh come on, if you can't get drunk and stoned and complain about Britain not being white enough on pb.com, where the heck CAN you get drunk and stoned and complain about Britain not being white enough?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,775
    What time is the new leader being announced? I don't see anything specific on the BBC or Sky's coverage.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,348
    The hallmark of IDS' failure as Conservative leader in my view was that he failed to oppose the Iraq War in 2003, instead making the ludicrous claim that Blair was anti-American and not providing firm enough support to our American allies. Consequently he failed to provide the scrutiny of the case for war that an opposition should have provided, and as Ken Clarke provided at the same time from the backbenches.

    In a very small way, the reaction of the new Conservative leader to the US Presidential election poses a similar test. There will doubtless be much to scrutinise in the approach that Labour takes to its relationship with the US, whoever is elected President, but there's a risk that the new leader gets caught up in ideological positioning wrt Trump or Harris, at the cost of effective scrutiny of the government.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,845

    Kemi at 1.05 now

    Jenrick flying out

    A surprise looks unlikely but, if it is, it will be one of the biggest ever.
    And yet the fact there is any money still in the market suggests either no-one really knows, or the people who do know are content with the odd tenner.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,766

    GIN1138 said:

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    Isn't "Tory" / "Tories" more of a nickname / term of abuse? The Conservatives don't use "Tory" in any official capacity and I suspect even of they change their name from "Conservatives" people will still use "Tory" as a term of abuse... Lets face it, the name has survived since 1832 lol...
    If the Tories elect their second consecutive non white leader (and fourth woman leader) then they should rename themselves as the Progressives as a contrast to the pale, stale, and male Labour party.
    Shame British National Party is already taken.
    The Freedom Party? Some brothers in arms on the continent.
    The MEGA Party. Make England Great Again would be current and capture the mood of a changing world.
    Supreme Make England Great Again, keeping that essential Tory cheesiness.
    The Party needs to find a way to appeal to younger voters and not just pensioners so maybe they could go down the Education, Education, Education route.

    Supreme Make England Great Helping Everyone Achieve Dream Starts
    There are mock elections at schools up and down the country being won by the Greens on the single issue of university fees. Leaning into this could garner a lot of votes from that generation and their parents.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,399
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nonetheless the new Tory leader will be in a far better position than Hague was in 1997 when the Tories were 20%+ behind New Labour when he took over in the polls. Though Reform have also taken from Labour since the general election which helps

    This Labour government are slow burners. But already we're getting a sense of a party in control. Sue Gray WFA and Taylor Swift have slowly disappeared into the ether. The wild anger of the Tories and their newspapers has dissipated and thanks to Rachel we're getting a welcome sense of direction after 9 years of turmoil.

    All we need now is to see some positive moves to dismantle Brexit (short of rejoining) and the Labour/Lib Dem future looks bright
    I sometimes wonder if you get paid to parody yourself.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,722
    I do hope Jerknick loses. His stance on human rights precludes him being elected as leader.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,880
    Jonathan said:

    The new Tory leader is elected and immediately turn their sights on Reform. They denounce the hard right and set out a new big tent on the centre right of British politics. The nasty culture war rhetoric is gone. There is no more fuck business or ideological nonsense. No more drill baby drill or denial of facts for political purposes. No more favours for mates. Policy isn’t focused on Daily Mail headlines.

    A pragmatic, entrepreneurial, evidence based, progressive right of centre with an eye on future emerges.

    And a squadron of pigs goes flying over Westminster......
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,043
    kle4 said:

    That's a steep drop.

    The Botswana Democratic Party just lost an election for the first time in almost 60 years. They are the only governing party an independent Botswana has ever known

    https://nitter.poast.org/PopulismUpdates/status/1852385251575636176#m
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c238n5zr51yo

    The Democratic Party got more votes than either the Congress Party or Patriotic Front, but fewer seats. FPTP strikes again.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,348
    ohnotnow said:

    What time is the new leader being announced? I don't see anything specific on the BBC or Sky's coverage.

    11am
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    It's all a bit like Lenny Henry's joke about changing the name of Windscale to Sellafield and nuclear fallout to magic moon beams.

    The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.

    Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
    Boris was the most ‘one nation’ conservative there was. Big spending, irresponsible government.
    Big spending on PPE contracts for friends and family is not one nation Conservatism.
    Labour would have done the same if they'd be in power during the Covid crisis.

    Seriously. They said as much at the time, when they were advocating for unknown companies to get contracts in parliament (and using it as a stick too bash the government with).

    And as we've seen with the good Lord Alli's 'donations'; they're not beyond a little personal grift.

    The alternative was not to get any PPE, or at least in nowhere near as quick time. Yes, it was immensely wasteful; but I cannot see a way, in those fevered months, we could have got the PPE without waste. There was just too much worldwide demand, and ordinary processes just would not work.
    Hopefully the right lessons have been learned from the pandemic, and there’s now a large warehouse or ten somewhere containing things likely to be useful in various types of national emergency. With good rotation policies in place so the stuff is in serviceable condition on the day it’s suddenly required.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 495

    Kemi at 1.05 now

    Jenrick flying out

    A surprise looks unlikely but, if it is, it will be one of the biggest ever.
    And yet the fact there is any money still in the market suggests either no-one really knows, or the people who do know are content with the odd tenner.
    Ta. Couldn't think what to do with my £2 free bet
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    It's all a bit like Lenny Henry's joke about changing the name of Windscale to Sellafield and nuclear fallout to magic moon beams.

    The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.

    Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
    Boris was the most ‘one nation’ conservative there was. Big spending, irresponsible government.
    Big spending on PPE contracts for friends and family is not one nation Conservatism.
    Labour would have done the same if they'd be in power during the Covid crisis.

    Seriously. They said as much at the time, when they were advocating for unknown companies to get contracts in parliament (and using it as a stick too bash the government with).

    And as we've seen with the good Lord Alli's 'donations'; they're not beyond a little personal grift.

    The alternative was not to get any PPE, or at least in nowhere near as quick time. Yes, it was immensely wasteful; but I cannot see a way, in those fevered months, we could have got the PPE without waste. There was just too much worldwide demand, and ordinary processes just would not work.
    Labour may prove incompetent over the next five years but the PPE fast lanes were venal, unbridled corruption. They were indefensible at the time and they are now.

    Experienced NHS procurement organisations were left of the list whilst brothers and sisters of Ministers with AliExpress accounts were handed millions of tax pounds.
    That is the accusation. But I'd point out we needed an unprecedented amount of PPE, and some/many of those 'experienced NHS procurement organisations' were unable to procure it - they had failed, which was *why* we had to find other methods to get it.

    Labour MPs stood up in parliament and asked, straight-faced, why certain companies were not being asked to supply PPE, as they apparently had loads available. These companies were not, shall we say, established suppliers. Or even, in some cases, very established at all. This was pointed out at the time on here.

    You seem to think that, if Labour had been in charge, that those companies would have automagically got the PPE. I'm saying that's rubbish. There was always going to be a large amount of waste, but it was an emergency situation.
    You are putting words on the page on my behalf. The whataboutary of Labour 's PPE procurement is of no relevance. Millions of taxpayer pounds were spent on faulty PPE, which in itself is a scandal but when allied to the fact this faulty PPE was sold to the NHS at three times the retail price on AliExpress by friends and family of Ministers it is corruption pure and simple.

    Couldn't NHS procurement departments facilitate their own AliExpress accounts to buy faulty PPE?
    Which friends and family of ministers? If there is a line between them and any fraud corruption, every one of those former ministers will be going to jail for a long time. Do you have any names ?
    There are well documented relationships which I wouldn't dare to mention on here. I am sure a public inquiry will reveal the names you need.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,189
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Perfectly normal again.

    Trump: Liz Cheney would not fight. I will go with her, wherever she wants, and we will fight. She doesn't have the guts to fight. She's all talk and no action.
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1852473139227509129

    President 'Bone Spurs' says others wouldn't fight...
    It has to be said, to be fair to Trump, as President he didn't generally send troops abroad. He talked a lot, but in the end confined himself mostly to random dronings. It's one reason why American prestige (which is essentially based on fear) was at a low ebb when Biden came in.

    It was America where he sent others off to fight while chickening out himself...
    He did massively increase the amount of bombing and droning the US carried out, so not exactly the Peace candidate
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    I'm sure Jenrick will be just fine as Tory leader. Bland white lawyers are in right now.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,766

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    It's all a bit like Lenny Henry's joke about changing the name of Windscale to Sellafield and nuclear fallout to magic moon beams.

    The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.

    Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
    Was Leon really banned for hoping that white people would not die out? This strikes me as an utterly uncontroversial thing to wish for in absolutely any point in history or (for tge appropriate local ethnicity) geography.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    I suspect until the pollsters get their new methodologies in place we're going to see some outlier polls though whether it's Techne or BMG which is the outlier remains to be seen? The seemingly all-powerful Conservatives (no giggling in the cheap seats) did lose two local council by-election seats to the LDs on Thursday.

    The result in Hampshire - probably the last County Council seat to face a by-election as it's barely six months to the full set of elections in May 2025 - was a swing from Conservative to LD of 26% from the 2021 numbers. Now, with all the usual caveats about local council by-elections, that suggests it could be a difficult evening for some Conservatives in parts of the south and south east next May but there's an eternity to go and it's entirely possible Jenrick or Badenoch, much as Hague did, will be able to get local momentum going for the party in the New Year.

    One poll with a one point lead doesn't make an autumn nor does it mean anything much of anything in all honesty though I note the Conservative rise is mirrored by Reform easing back so we might see a rebalancing of this "bloc" of Conservative/Reform voters (or we may not especially if Reform, who also won a seat on Thursday from Labour capitalise on any Westminster by-election).

    It’s hard to see the Conservatives not losing seats (and some councils), to the Lib Dems, in May 2025. They are performing better, relative to 2022-24, but not relative to 2021.

    As against that, they should win some mayoralties, and hold counties comfortably, such as Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, where the main opponent is Labour.

    Labour will likely lose quite a few seats to Reform.


    Conor Sen
    @conorsen
    My God, the Polymarket whale is just some French guy with completely replacement-level views:

    https://x.com/conorsen/status/1852450558088470599

    Am I the only one who barely understood a word of that tweet?
    Grand Replacement Theory is a conspiracy theory that liberal governments are deliberately replacing white people with immigrants, popular with right wing French intellectuals.

    Exactly the sort of person who would pile on Trump in a highly suspect betting market.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    kamski said:

    moonshine said:

    Is @Leon facing a life time ban rather than sin bin by the way?

    The focus of PB over the next week or so will be on the US presidential election.

    We are not going to let the dribblings of a soaked up racist popinjay distract PB from one of the biggest betting markets ever.
    Oh come on, if you can't get drunk and stoned and complain about Britain not being white enough on pb.com, where the heck CAN you get drunk and stoned and complain about Britain not being white enough?
    If you read the final straw post it really was quite disgusting.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,775

    ohnotnow said:

    What time is the new leader being announced? I don't see anything specific on the BBC or Sky's coverage.

    11am
    Cheers! I might go for a rainy walk beforehand to get myself in the mood...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,022
    While the government are blowing a large amount of money in carbon capture, they have at least protected the Science R&D budget.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-backs-uk-rd-with-record-204-billion-investment-at-autumn-budget
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,043
    Sandpit said:

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    It's all a bit like Lenny Henry's joke about changing the name of Windscale to Sellafield and nuclear fallout to magic moon beams.

    The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.

    Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
    Boris was the most ‘one nation’ conservative there was. Big spending, irresponsible government.
    Big spending on PPE contracts for friends and family is not one nation Conservatism.
    Labour would have done the same if they'd be in power during the Covid crisis.

    Seriously. They said as much at the time, when they were advocating for unknown companies to get contracts in parliament (and using it as a stick too bash the government with).

    And as we've seen with the good Lord Alli's 'donations'; they're not beyond a little personal grift.

    The alternative was not to get any PPE, or at least in nowhere near as quick time. Yes, it was immensely wasteful; but I cannot see a way, in those fevered months, we could have got the PPE without waste. There was just too much worldwide demand, and ordinary processes just would not work.
    Hopefully the right lessons have been learned from the pandemic, and there’s now a large warehouse or ten somewhere containing things likely to be useful in various types of national emergency. With good rotation policies in place so the stuff is in serviceable condition on the day it’s suddenly required.
    I don’t know about PPE specifically, but the Tories spent a lot of money and effort on a re-organisation to create the UK Health Security Agency, promising it would be well resourced, and then chop, chop, chopped the budget. We are not currently preparing well for the next pandemic.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,766

    kamski said:

    moonshine said:

    Is @Leon facing a life time ban rather than sin bin by the way?

    The focus of PB over the next week or so will be on the US presidential election.

    We are not going to let the dribblings of a soaked up racist popinjay distract PB from one of the biggest betting markets ever.
    Oh come on, if you can't get drunk and stoned and complain about Britain not being white enough on pb.com, where the heck CAN you get drunk and stoned and complain about Britain not being white enough?
    If you read the final straw post it really was quite disgusting.
    Di you have a link? Because honestly as I recall it it was something to the effect of "I don't want white people to die out".
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,809

    The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
    Same here but I know why I have the feeling of unease.

    It's a direct consequence of the feeling of unease I have that there is a large enough proportion of the Tory membership who are racist to tip the balance.
    It is not racists that Kemi needs worry about but academic snobs. Jenrick is a Cambridge-educated lawyer who went to Cambridge and Kemi went to Sussex, what we used to call a plate glass university.

    On the other hand, Kemi worked at McDonalds like the next POTUS.
    "Plate glass university." Coo, the things one learns on PB. I've never heard that term before.

    Mind, southside Edinburgh, or Oxford (and not just O Brookes), or Leicester, for instance, have plenty of plate glass ... Arne Jacobsen's St Catherine's, and the Appleton Tower, come to mind from my interest in modern buildings in myh younger days.

    https://arnejacobsen.com/works/st-catherines-college-2/
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,348
    Sandpit said:

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    It's all a bit like Lenny Henry's joke about changing the name of Windscale to Sellafield and nuclear fallout to magic moon beams.

    The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.

    Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
    Boris was the most ‘one nation’ conservative there was. Big spending, irresponsible government.
    Big spending on PPE contracts for friends and family is not one nation Conservatism.
    Labour would have done the same if they'd be in power during the Covid crisis.

    Seriously. They said as much at the time, when they were advocating for unknown companies to get contracts in parliament (and using it as a stick too bash the government with).

    And as we've seen with the good Lord Alli's 'donations'; they're not beyond a little personal grift.

    The alternative was not to get any PPE, or at least in nowhere near as quick time. Yes, it was immensely wasteful; but I cannot see a way, in those fevered months, we could have got the PPE without waste. There was just too much worldwide demand, and ordinary processes just would not work.
    Hopefully the right lessons have been learned from the pandemic, and there’s now a large warehouse or ten somewhere containing things likely to be useful in various types of national emergency. With good rotation policies in place so the stuff is in serviceable condition on the day it’s suddenly required.
    I'm not sure you can really stockpile enough to help in these sorts of emergencies. What you need is production capacity that can be switched from its normal work when required, and then the stockpile only needs to cover you for the period it takes to turn on/switch production. Maybe such production capacity is tasked to produce a sample amount for a stockpile on an annual basis, thereby proving it can switch, but any stockpile is going to be exhausted very quickly.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,043
    Cookie said:

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    It's all a bit like Lenny Henry's joke about changing the name of Windscale to Sellafield and nuclear fallout to magic moon beams.

    The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.

    Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
    Was Leon really banned for hoping that white people would not die out? This strikes me as an utterly uncontroversial thing to wish for in absolutely any point in history or (for tge appropriate local ethnicity) geography.
    No, he was not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    It's all a bit like Lenny Henry's joke about changing the name of Windscale to Sellafield and nuclear fallout to magic moon beams.

    The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.

    Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
    Boris was the most ‘one nation’ conservative there was. Big spending, irresponsible government.
    Big spending on PPE contracts for friends and family is not one nation Conservatism.
    Labour would have done the same if they'd be in power during the Covid crisis.

    Seriously. They said as much at the time, when they were advocating for unknown companies to get contracts in parliament (and using it as a stick too bash the government with).

    And as we've seen with the good Lord Alli's 'donations'; they're not beyond a little personal grift.

    The alternative was not to get any PPE, or at least in nowhere near as quick time. Yes, it was immensely wasteful; but I cannot see a way, in those fevered months, we could have got the PPE without waste. There was just too much worldwide demand, and ordinary processes just would not work.
    Labour may prove incompetent over the next five years but the PPE fast lanes were venal, unbridled corruption. They were indefensible at the time and they are now.

    Experienced NHS procurement organisations were left of the list whilst brothers and sisters of Ministers with AliExpress accounts were handed millions of tax pounds.
    That is the accusation. But I'd point out we needed an unprecedented amount of PPE, and some/many of those 'experienced NHS procurement organisations' were unable to procure it - they had failed, which was *why* we had to find other methods to get it.

    Labour MPs stood up in parliament and asked, straight-faced, why certain companies were not being asked to supply PPE, as they apparently had loads available. These companies were not, shall we say, established suppliers. Or even, in some cases, very established at all. This was pointed out at the time on here.

    You seem to think that, if Labour had been in charge, that those companies would have automagically got the PPE. I'm saying that's rubbish. There was always going to be a large amount of waste, but it was an emergency situation.
    Wasn't that basically the reasoning of a court to some challenge to VIP procurement lanes or whatever? Basically that this was a critical and emergency situation, so it was lawful and reasonable to have expedited arrangements, even though it came with some risks?

    Doesn't mean there was no fraud, or that a good enough job to recover some funds has not happened, but the context is pretty darn important.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,043
    Cookie said:

    kamski said:

    moonshine said:

    Is @Leon facing a life time ban rather than sin bin by the way?

    The focus of PB over the next week or so will be on the US presidential election.

    We are not going to let the dribblings of a soaked up racist popinjay distract PB from one of the biggest betting markets ever.
    Oh come on, if you can't get drunk and stoned and complain about Britain not being white enough on pb.com, where the heck CAN you get drunk and stoned and complain about Britain not being white enough?
    If you read the final straw post it really was quite disgusting.
    Di you have a link? Because honestly as I recall it it was something to the effect of "I don't want white people to die out".
    You have a poor memory.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5005818/#Comment_5005818
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569

    Kemi at 1.05 now

    Someone with a Betfair account has seen the result.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Taz said:

    Prominent SNP supporter Janey Godley has died.

    63

    Only four years older than me.

    Enjoy the time you have left guys and gals

    https://news.sky.com/story/scottish-comedian-janey-godley-dies-aged-63-13246433

    Very funny woman and very sad.
  • Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    It's all a bit like Lenny Henry's joke about changing the name of Windscale to Sellafield and nuclear fallout to magic moon beams.

    The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.

    Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
    Boris was the most ‘one nation’ conservative there was. Big spending, irresponsible government.
    Big spending on PPE contracts for friends and family is not one nation Conservatism.
    Labour would have done the same if they'd be in power during the Covid crisis.

    Seriously. They said as much at the time, when they were advocating for unknown companies to get contracts in parliament (and using it as a stick too bash the government with).

    And as we've seen with the good Lord Alli's 'donations'; they're not beyond a little personal grift.

    The alternative was not to get any PPE, or at least in nowhere near as quick time. Yes, it was immensely wasteful; but I cannot see a way, in those fevered months, we could have got the PPE without waste. There was just too much worldwide demand, and ordinary processes just would not work.
    Labour may prove incompetent over the next five years but the PPE fast lanes were venal, unbridled corruption. They were indefensible at the time and they are now.

    Experienced NHS procurement organisations were left of the list whilst brothers and sisters of Ministers with AliExpress accounts were handed millions of tax pounds.
    That is the accusation. But I'd point out we needed an unprecedented amount of PPE, and some/many of those 'experienced NHS procurement organisations' were unable to procure it - they had failed, which was *why* we had to find other methods to get it.

    Labour MPs stood up in parliament and asked, straight-faced, why certain companies were not being asked to supply PPE, as they apparently had loads available. These companies were not, shall we say, established suppliers. Or even, in some cases, very established at all. This was pointed out at the time on here.

    You seem to think that, if Labour had been in charge, that those companies would have automagically got the PPE. I'm saying that's rubbish. There was always going to be a large amount of waste, but it was an emergency situation.
    You are putting words on the page on my behalf. The whataboutary of Labour 's PPE procurement is of no relevance. Millions of taxpayer pounds were spent on faulty PPE, which in itself is a scandal but when allied to the fact this faulty PPE was sold to the NHS at three times the retail price on AliExpress by friends and family of Ministers it is corruption pure and simple.

    Couldn't NHS procurement departments facilitate their own AliExpress accounts to buy faulty PPE?
    Which friends and family of ministers? If there is a line between them and any fraud corruption, every one of those former ministers will be going to jail for a long time. Do you have any names ?
    There are well documented relationships which I wouldn't dare to mention on here. I am sure a public inquiry will reveal the names you need.
    If there was any kind of evidence of criminal conspiracy I’m pretty sure we won’t be needing a public enquiry.
    What happened was all members of parliament and the lords were actively canvassed to forward potential suppliers to a website and email address. And erm, that was it. The notorious pub landlord story was exactly that “hello Mat, you might remember me, I am the custodian at the pub in your constituency, I also run a packaging company, I think it might be possible to convert it to create packaging for vaccines, who do I contact”
    At which point Matt responded back with a hi and sent him the web address.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 794

    Kemi at 1.05 now

    Jenrick flying out

    A surprise looks unlikely but, if it is, it will be one of the biggest ever.
    Biggest ever? It wouldn't even be the biggest this contest!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,022
    The Biden administration has even turned around the decline in life expectancy...

    The decline of American life expectancy that started in 2015 and accelerated due to COVID is over.

    While America's life expectancy is still lower than most other developed countries, it's at the highest point in our history.

    https://x.com/StatisticUrban/status/1852337687241293939
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,189
    Nigelb said:

    "Ask for a refund."

    Federal Elections Commission filing shows Ted Cruz spent $9,000 from his Senate campaign account at beauty spas.
    https://x.com/MikeSington/status/1852441634186620978

    "can you make me look like a serial killer?"

    "very easily"
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,488
    National Hunt Horse Racing tips 🐎
    Ascot 2.05 - Martator
    Wetherby 2.22 - Twig
    Wetherby 2.58 - Hang In There
    Ascot 3.45 - CHIANTI CLASSICO ❤️
  • From a neutral's point of view I want whichever candidate is less likely to allow the conservatives to go full british trump with the conspiracy theories and glib easy answers to any problem and of course the lying.

    I would say that is Kemi.

    I’ve thought Kemi is the closest leadership candidate we have had for a generation that is small c conservative. She just needs to focus away from culture wars, though important, onto the things that resonate with voters.
    She won’t be able to.
    That’s the rub. She needs a good deputy and chairman she will listen to.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    Nigelb said:

    The Biden administration has even turned around the decline in life expectancy...

    The decline of American life expectancy that started in 2015 and accelerated due to COVID is over.

    While America's life expectancy is still lower than most other developed countries, it's at the highest point in our history.

    https://x.com/StatisticUrban/status/1852337687241293939

    If only he himself were 4 years younger.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    ohnotnow said:

    ohnotnow said:

    What time is the new leader being announced? I don't see anything specific on the BBC or Sky's coverage.

    11am
    Cheers! I might go for a rainy walk beforehand to get myself in the mood...
    Or take a few stiff drinks.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569

    Sandpit said:

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    It's all a bit like Lenny Henry's joke about changing the name of Windscale to Sellafield and nuclear fallout to magic moon beams.

    The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.

    Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
    Boris was the most ‘one nation’ conservative there was. Big spending, irresponsible government.
    Big spending on PPE contracts for friends and family is not one nation Conservatism.
    Labour would have done the same if they'd be in power during the Covid crisis.

    Seriously. They said as much at the time, when they were advocating for unknown companies to get contracts in parliament (and using it as a stick too bash the government with).

    And as we've seen with the good Lord Alli's 'donations'; they're not beyond a little personal grift.

    The alternative was not to get any PPE, or at least in nowhere near as quick time. Yes, it was immensely wasteful; but I cannot see a way, in those fevered months, we could have got the PPE without waste. There was just too much worldwide demand, and ordinary processes just would not work.
    Hopefully the right lessons have been learned from the pandemic, and there’s now a large warehouse or ten somewhere containing things likely to be useful in various types of national emergency. With good rotation policies in place so the stuff is in serviceable condition on the day it’s suddenly required.
    I'm not sure you can really stockpile enough to help in these sorts of emergencies. What you need is production capacity that can be switched from its normal work when required, and then the stockpile only needs to cover you for the period it takes to turn on/switch production. Maybe such production capacity is tasked to produce a sample amount for a stockpile on an annual basis, thereby proving it can switch, but any stockpile is going to be exhausted very quickly.
    Yes you need both sufficient stockpiles and strategic manufacturing capacity.

    IIRC the NHS was really impressed with Burberry gowns that appeared a couple of months into the pandemic, and one of my favourite stories of the pandemic was the Mercedes F1 engine factory that made CPAP machines.
  • kle4 said:

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    It's all a bit like Lenny Henry's joke about changing the name of Windscale to Sellafield and nuclear fallout to magic moon beams.

    The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.

    Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
    Boris was the most ‘one nation’ conservative there was. Big spending, irresponsible government.
    Big spending on PPE contracts for friends and family is not one nation Conservatism.
    Labour would have done the same if they'd be in power during the Covid crisis.

    Seriously. They said as much at the time, when they were advocating for unknown companies to get contracts in parliament (and using it as a stick too bash the government with).

    And as we've seen with the good Lord Alli's 'donations'; they're not beyond a little personal grift.

    The alternative was not to get any PPE, or at least in nowhere near as quick time. Yes, it was immensely wasteful; but I cannot see a way, in those fevered months, we could have got the PPE without waste. There was just too much worldwide demand, and ordinary processes just would not work.
    Labour may prove incompetent over the next five years but the PPE fast lanes were venal, unbridled corruption. They were indefensible at the time and they are now.

    Experienced NHS procurement organisations were left of the list whilst brothers and sisters of Ministers with AliExpress accounts were handed millions of tax pounds.
    That is the accusation. But I'd point out we needed an unprecedented amount of PPE, and some/many of those 'experienced NHS procurement organisations' were unable to procure it - they had failed, which was *why* we had to find other methods to get it.

    Labour MPs stood up in parliament and asked, straight-faced, why certain companies were not being asked to supply PPE, as they apparently had loads available. These companies were not, shall we say, established suppliers. Or even, in some cases, very established at all. This was pointed out at the time on here.

    You seem to think that, if Labour had been in charge, that those companies would have automagically got the PPE. I'm saying that's rubbish. There was always going to be a large amount of waste, but it was an emergency situation.
    Wasn't that basically the reasoning of a court to some challenge to VIP procurement lanes or whatever? Basically that this was a critical and emergency situation, so it was lawful and reasonable to have expedited arrangements, even though it came with some risks?

    Doesn't mean there was no fraud, or that a good enough job to recover some funds has not happened, but the context is pretty darn important.

    I have no doubt fraud happened. The line is that the fraud came from ministers giving contracts to friends and family. Anyone with an an ounce of knowledge on procurement knows that can’t happen.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,055

    Result expected shortly after 11am, rumours that the turnout was above 70% and a decent margin of victory for the winner. Decent is okay, but decisive would have been better.

    How do you know this?
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