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For the first time in nearly three years the Tories lead in the polls – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,183
edited November 10 in General
For the first time in nearly three years the Tories lead in the polls – politicalbetting.com

What a feat by Rishi Sunak, turning around a Labour lead of 20 points in just two short years https://t.co/TnHup30vGq

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755
    First like Bilbo
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,837
    First, like Sunak

    Techne may disagree
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,479
    moonshine said:

    First like Bilbo

    He ran rings round everyone.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,479
    Foxy said:

    First, like Sunak

    Techne may disagree

    So does Vanilla.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755
    Is @Leon facing a life time ban rather than sin bin by the way?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,478
    Labour have bet the house on fixing the NHS. We have 4.5 years to find out if it works. 😊
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401
    edited November 2
    Nonetheless the new Tory leader will be in a far better position than Hague was in 1997 when the Tories were 20%+ behind New Labour when he took over in the polls. Though Reform have also taken from Labour since the general election which helps
  • It is a new dawn for the Tories. The only way is up.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,479
    edited November 2

    Labour have bet the house on fixing the NHS. We have 4.5 years to find out if it works. 😊

    Easy lay.

    In fact, the only easier lay in the universe than Boris Johnson.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,971
    I see the deranged Trump supporters on the previous thread are accusing others of Trump derangement syndrome. ;)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,479
    Speaking of lays, at 2-1 in this Test I think New Zealand can kiss goodbye to the whitewash.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    The combined Labour/Tory share in that poll is remarkably low. On a completely unrelated note, when do we find out the winner between scylla and charybdis this morning?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    Perfectly normal again.

    Trump: Liz Cheney would not fight. I will go with her, wherever she wants, and we will fight. She doesn't have the guts to fight. She's all talk and no action.
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1852473139227509129
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939

    moonshine said:

    Is @Leon facing a life time ban rather than sin bin by the way?

    The focus of PB over the next week or so will be on the US presidential election.

    We aew not going to let the dribblings of a soaked up racist popinjay distract PB from one of the biggest betting markets ever.
    Boo. We all need some light relief, especially when things are so tense.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,656
    Is Rishi Sunak the first party leader in decades to leave office ahead in the polls?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755

    I see the deranged Trump supporters on the previous thread are accusing others of Trump derangement syndrome. ;)

    You keep saying things this. Pointing out that propaganda in this election has been two way doesn’t mean you think one candidate or the other is actually attractive. They are both awful. I think I might call it a day on pb, it’s gradually becoming like a sub Reddit, with any non conformist view point drowned out. It makes it a far less enlightening place to spend time that it used to be.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    edited November 2
    Sandpit said:

    Is Rishi Sunak the first party leader in decades to leave office ahead in the polls?

    No.

    David Cameron (pbuh) led in the polls when he retired.

    Indeed he led in more polls with bigger leads.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,479

    moonshine said:

    Is @Leon facing a life time ban rather than sin bin by the way?

    The focus of PB over the next week or so will be on the US presidential election.

    We aew not going to let the dribblings of a soaked up racist popinjay distract PB from one of the biggest betting markets ever.
    Oh gosh.

    The ban hammer will be getting a lot of work, I take it?
  • The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,971
    moonshine said:

    I see the deranged Trump supporters on the previous thread are accusing others of Trump derangement syndrome. ;)

    You keep saying things this. Pointing out that propaganda in this election has been two way doesn’t mean you think one candidate or the other is actually attractive. They are both awful. I think I might call it a day on pb, it’s gradually becoming like a sub Reddit, with any non conformist view point drowned out. It makes it a far less enlightening place to spend time that it used to be.
    You seem to want to be able to accuse one side of suffering from 'Trump Derangement Syndrome', whilst complaining when others say your own view is deranged.

    Suck it up.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited November 2
    Rumours of a poll by a non-partisan pollster is going to show Trump up by only 3 points in Ohio .

    The source says he’s seen the poll and can verify it’s legit . He helps to run the Split Ticket website.

    Trump isn’t going to lose Ohio , there’s no chance of that happening but it does have implications for the Senate and the neighbouring rust belt in terms of the way the wind blows .

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,656

    Sandpit said:

    Is Rishi Sunak the first party leader in decades to leave office ahead in the polls?

    No.

    David Cameron (pbuh) led in the polls when he retired.

    Indeed he led in more polls with bigger leads.
    So why did he resign then? He should have stayed on to implement the popular view of the People.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,335

    Sandpit said:

    Is Rishi Sunak the first party leader in decades to leave office ahead in the polls?

    No.

    David Cameron (pbuh) led in the polls when he retired.

    Indeed he led in more polls with bigger leads.
    Why are you so enthused about someone with such poor judgement?
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is Rishi Sunak the first party leader in decades to leave office ahead in the polls?

    No.

    David Cameron (pbuh) led in the polls when he retired.

    Indeed he led in more polls with bigger leads.
    So why did he resign then? He should have stayed on to implement the popular view of the People.
    Because the Brexit twats aka the ERG were already trying to oust him, even if Remain won.

    His authority was shot, they were arguing that they didn't want the man who had who they viewed as getting a poor renegotiation negotiating the UK's exit deal.

    He thought a new leader would be able to get a really good deal as they wouldn't have his baggage.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,849

    The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401

    The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Same
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,035
    Nigelb said:

    Perfectly normal again.

    Trump: Liz Cheney would not fight. I will go with her, wherever she wants, and we will fight. She doesn't have the guts to fight. She's all talk and no action.
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1852473139227509129

    President 'Bone Spurs' says others wouldn't fight...
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    @DavidL comment at the end of the last post:

    I’m not sure it is that close. The US election is about vision, enthusiasm and turnout and Harris is winning that battle hands down. You only have to look at the campaigns. Trump’s is a low energy car crash. Harris quite the opposite, but with a relentless focus on why her vision is positive and inclusive. Read the tealeaves and everywhere there is evidence that Trump is seen as a bit stale, even by some who voted for him in 2020 and 2016. There are multiple high profile republicans endorsing Harris, anybody the opposite?

    The pollsters and talking heads thought Trump would win from early and never got beyond Biden dropping out of the race. That changed everything. But they’d made their minds up and to maintain their worldview of Trump eking out a win in the Hawwrrsse Rrace they have been ignoring fundamentals and skewing polls ever since.

    The Biden/Trump debate was peak Trump. It’s been downhill ever since. He wanted revenge on Biden and he now looks old and tired. The Harris campaign and ground game is wiping the floor with them.

    Anyway the betting has provided the best value since Brexit. I’ve done Harris at 11/8 and to win PA at 11/10.



  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,479
    HYUFD said:

    The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Same
    Well, this just isn't good enough.

    Can't they postpone it until 5 so the important people like the denizens of PB can pay due attention?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401
    Sandpit said:

    Is Rishi Sunak the first party leader in decades to leave office ahead in the polls?

    Jim Callaghan in 1980 too. Blair in a few 2007 polls and Cameron in most 2016 polls as has been mentioned
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,479
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is Rishi Sunak the first party leader in decades to leave office ahead in the polls?

    Jim Callaghan in 1980 too. Blair in a few 2007 polls and Cameron in most 2016 polls as has been mentioned
    You could make a case Kinnock was ahead in the opinion polls at the moment he resigned.

    It would overlook one quite important factor, but it would be technically true.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,085
    On topic, Labour needs to govern assuming it has one term. That means being slightly more radical with any reforms they wish to complete in the next 18 months. What they definitely shouldn't do is get cold feet because of a few bad mid-term polls. They won a big majority: use it.

    That needs to go beyond tax and spend if they want to have a lasting legacy from their time in office. But I understand why they needed to do big tax rises early to maximise their impact and make them fade from memory by the next election.

    I'm hoping planning reform, in particular, is sufficiently ambitious when it comes to pass.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,760

    The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
    Same here but I know why I have the feeling of unease.

    It's a direct consequence of the feeling of unease I have that there is a large enough proportion of the Tory membership who are racist to tip the balance.
  • I see the deranged Trump supporters on the previous thread are accusing others of Trump derangement syndrome. ;)

    It's like dealing with Corbynites.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,479
    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Perfectly normal again.

    Trump: Liz Cheney would not fight. I will go with her, wherever she wants, and we will fight. She doesn't have the guts to fight. She's all talk and no action.
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1852473139227509129

    President 'Bone Spurs' says others wouldn't fight...
    It has to be said, to be fair to Trump, as President he didn't generally send troops abroad. He talked a lot, but in the end confined himself mostly to random dronings. It's one reason why American prestige (which is essentially based on fear) was at a low ebb when Biden came in.

    It was America where he sent others off to fight while chickening out himself...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,307
    Sandpit said:

    Is Rishi Sunak the first party leader in decades to leave office ahead in the polls?

    Brown got several ties before handing over to EdM.

    Major didn't get any leads after losing.

    Callaghan was fairly solidly ahead in the polls from pretty much the day after the '79 election. That lead kept growing up the moment that Labour replaced him with someone utterly implausible.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,479

    The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
    Same here but I know why I have the feeling of unease.

    It's a direct consequence of the feeling of unease I have that there is a large enough proportion of the Tory membership who are racist to tip the balance.
    If Jenrick wins and Trump loses, I could live with it.

    I mean Jenrick is a Tristram Hunt, but Trump is much worse and would have actual power.

    Plus there's little danger of such a Mickey Mouse leader of the Tories lasting more than a year or so.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 806
    edited November 2
    @Benpointer @numbertwelve I suspect it's cause you both know the price is obviously wrong. However the price being wrong doesn't mean he should be favourite. Kemi should still win, it's just that she isn't better than 65%ish chance (as far as can be told)

    (Awaits 80% vote for Kemi)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    edited November 2

    Sandpit said:

    Is Rishi Sunak the first party leader in decades to leave office ahead in the polls?

    Brown got several ties before handing over to EdM.

    Major didn't get any leads after losing.

    Callaghan was fairly solidly ahead in the polls from pretty much the day after the '79 election. That lead kept growing up the moment that Labour replaced him with someone utterly implausible.
    Incorrect.

    Brown quit as leader straight after the election thus Harriet Harman became acting leader

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,927
    Morning all :)

    I suspect until the pollsters get their new methodologies in place we're going to see some outlier polls though whether it's Techne or BMG which is the outlier remains to be seen? The seemingly all-powerful Conservatives (no giggling in the cheap seats) did lose two local council by-election seats to the LDs on Thursday.

    The result in Hampshire - probably the last County Council seat to face a by-election as it's barely six months to the full set of elections in May 2025 - was a swing from Conservative to LD of 26% from the 2021 numbers. Now, with all the usual caveats about local council by-elections, that suggests it could be a difficult evening for some Conservatives in parts of the south and south east next May but there's an eternity to go and it's entirely possible Jenrick or Badenoch, much as Hague did, will be able to get local momentum going for the party in the New Year.

    One poll with a one point lead doesn't make an autumn nor does it mean anything much of anything in all honesty though I note the Conservative rise is mirrored by Reform easing back so we might see a rebalancing of this "bloc" of Conservative/Reform voters (or we may not especially if Reform, who also won a seat on Thursday from Labour capitalise on any Westminster by-election).
  • moonshine said:

    I see the deranged Trump supporters on the previous thread are accusing others of Trump derangement syndrome. ;)

    You keep saying things this. Pointing out that propaganda in this election has been two way doesn’t mean you think one candidate or the other is actually attractive. They are both awful. I think I might call it a day on pb, it’s gradually becoming like a sub Reddit, with any non conformist view point drowned out. It makes it a far less enlightening place to spend time that it used to be.
    It is interesting to watch. I mildly prefer Trump over Harris, because the utter horrific mass child mutilation that has happened on her watch. I consider the encouragement of gender questioning and supporting pharmaceutical and surgical interventions on young children to be the biggest scandal of the 21st century so far, and she is up to her neck in it. But this is a minority concern I guess. I would support almost any other republican candidate above Trump who acts like a petulant child.
    But somehow on PB the Republican Party is presented as some kind of corrupt voter suppressing evil Russian funded organisation, whilst the Democrats are squeaky clean.
    The Democrat machine is at least as corrupt and thumb on the scales dodgy as the Republicans, There is no virtue in either, because when you have one side in charge of a place for a long period of time the rot sets in, no matter who it is. Chicago is renowned as one of the dirtiest places to do politics in the whole of the Union.
  • The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
    Because the last poll only had Badenoch winning by 4%, the poll prior to that had her defeating Jenrick by 18%.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/01/is-kemi-kaze-badenoch-about-to-blow-an-18-lead/
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,858
    moonshine said:

    I see the deranged Trump supporters on the previous thread are accusing others of Trump derangement syndrome. ;)

    You keep saying things this. Pointing out that propaganda in this election has been two way doesn’t mean you think one candidate or the other is actually attractive. They are both awful. I think I might call it a day on pb, it’s gradually becoming like a sub Reddit, with any non conformist view point drowned out. It makes it a far less enlightening place to spend time that it used to be.
    By non conformist do you mean someone who follows conspiracy sites and posts links to posts that were sourced from Jew baiting sites.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939

    @DavidL comment at the end of the last post:

    I’m not sure it is that close. The US election is about vision, enthusiasm and turnout and Harris is winning that battle hands down. You only have to look at the campaigns. Trump’s is a low energy car crash. Harris quite the opposite, but with a relentless focus on why her vision is positive and inclusive. Read the tealeaves and everywhere there is evidence that Trump is seen as a bit stale, even by some who voted for him in 2020 and 2016. There are multiple high profile republicans endorsing Harris, anybody the opposite?

    The pollsters and talking heads thought Trump would win from early and never got beyond Biden dropping out of the race. That changed everything. But they’d made their minds up and to maintain their worldview of Trump eking out a win in the Hawwrrsse Rrace they have been ignoring fundamentals and skewing polls ever since.

    The Biden/Trump debate was peak Trump. It’s been downhill ever since. He wanted revenge on Biden and he now looks old and tired. The Harris campaign and ground game is wiping the floor with them.

    Anyway the betting has provided the best value since Brexit. I’ve done Harris at 11/8 and to win PA at 11/10.



    I haven't put any bets on this time, the first US election for several cycles that is the case. But I am tempted with the spread bet for Harris in the electoral college which seems wildly pessimistic. I am also tempted with Harris in NC.

    Meantime, Harris is finishing like an express train with 3 events in Pennsylvania today. I think people will look back at her success with astonishment. She took over at short notice, had Biden making not entirely helpful contributions and generally losing the place, she had many of the disadvantages of incumbency and very few of the benefits, she started miles behind and has powered her way to a commanding position. Now she has to deliver and I think she will, possibly a slightly flattering victory as a series of swing states go her way by narrow margins. I hope we know by the end of the week.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,479

    Sandpit said:

    Is Rishi Sunak the first party leader in decades to leave office ahead in the polls?

    Brown got several ties before handing over to EdM.

    Major didn't get any leads after losing.

    Callaghan was fairly solidly ahead in the polls from pretty much the day after the '79 election. That lead kept growing up the moment that Labour replaced him with someone utterly implausible.
    Incorrect.

    Brown quit as leader straight after the election thus Harriet Harman became acting leader

    There is no role of 'acting leader' in the Labour constitution. When the leadership becomes vacant the Deputy Leader becomes Leader until the next party conference, which may be summoned specifically for that purpose.

    So actually we could add Harman to that list...

    #pedanticbetting.com
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,415
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    I suspect until the pollsters get their new methodologies in place we're going to see some outlier polls though whether it's Techne or BMG which is the outlier remains to be seen? The seemingly all-powerful Conservatives (no giggling in the cheap seats) did lose two local council by-election seats to the LDs on Thursday.

    The result in Hampshire - probably the last County Council seat to face a by-election as it's barely six months to the full set of elections in May 2025 - was a swing from Conservative to LD of 26% from the 2021 numbers. Now, with all the usual caveats about local council by-elections, that suggests it could be a difficult evening for some Conservatives in parts of the south and south east next May but there's an eternity to go and it's entirely possible Jenrick or Badenoch, much as Hague did, will be able to get local momentum going for the party in the New Year.

    One poll with a one point lead doesn't make an autumn nor does it mean anything much of anything in all honesty though I note the Conservative rise is mirrored by Reform easing back so we might see a rebalancing of this "bloc" of Conservative/Reform voters (or we may not especially if Reform, who also won a seat on Thursday from Labour capitalise on any Westminster by-election).

    It’s hard to see the Conservatives not losing seats (and some councils), to the Lib Dems, in May 2025. They are performing better, relative to 2022-24, but not relative to 2021.

    As against that, they should win some mayoralties, and hold counties comfortably, such as Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, where the main opponent is Labour.

    Labour will likely lose quite a few seats to Reform.
  • moonshine said:

    I see the deranged Trump supporters on the previous thread are accusing others of Trump derangement syndrome. ;)

    You keep saying things this. Pointing out that propaganda in this election has been two way doesn’t mean you think one candidate or the other is actually attractive. They are both awful. I think I might call it a day on pb, it’s gradually becoming like a sub Reddit, with any non conformist view point drowned out. It makes it a far less enlightening place to spend time that it used to be.
    Surely supporting the convict is the non-conformist view? Not sure that you can "drown out" the views of tens of millions of Americans and their fellow travellers. It is what it is. But remember what the crime is - we call out *what Trump says and does*.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,307

    The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
    We're not sure who the remaining Conservative membership are, or which of them have voted.

    (Number of votes won by the winner might be an interesting challenge to predict.)

    That gives space for something weird to happen.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,962
    ydoethur said:

    The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
    Same here but I know why I have the feeling of unease.

    It's a direct consequence of the feeling of unease I have that there is a large enough proportion of the Tory membership who are racist to tip the balance.
    If Jenrick wins and Trump loses, I could live with it.

    I mean Jenrick is a Tristram Hunt, but Trump is much worse and would have actual power.

    Plus there's little danger of such a Mickey Mouse leader of the Tories lasting more than a year or so.
    Cleverly clearly doesn’t want to risk being tainted by what he thinks is incoming.
  • The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
    Wouldn't that put a smile on all our faces :D
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,505
    ydoethur said:

    The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
    Same here but I know why I have the feeling of unease.

    It's a direct consequence of the feeling of unease I have that there is a large enough proportion of the Tory membership who are racist to tip the balance.
    If Jenrick wins and Trump loses, I could live with it.

    I mean Jenrick is a Tristram Hunt, but Trump is much worse and would have actual power.

    Plus there's little danger of such a Mickey Mouse leader of the Tories lasting more than a year or so.
    Alexander Johnson lasted three.
  • stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    I suspect until the pollsters get their new methodologies in place we're going to see some outlier polls though whether it's Techne or BMG which is the outlier remains to be seen? The seemingly all-powerful Conservatives (no giggling in the cheap seats) did lose two local council by-election seats to the LDs on Thursday.

    The result in Hampshire - probably the last County Council seat to face a by-election as it's barely six months to the full set of elections in May 2025 - was a swing from Conservative to LD of 26% from the 2021 numbers. Now, with all the usual caveats about local council by-elections, that suggests it could be a difficult evening for some Conservatives in parts of the south and south east next May but there's an eternity to go and it's entirely possible Jenrick or Badenoch, much as Hague did, will be able to get local momentum going for the party in the New Year.

    One poll with a one point lead doesn't make an autumn nor does it mean anything much of anything in all honesty though I note the Conservative rise is mirrored by Reform easing back so we might see a rebalancing of this "bloc" of Conservative/Reform voters (or we may not especially if Reform, who also won a seat on Thursday from Labour capitalise on any Westminster by-election).

    By elections are won by feet on the ground, knocking on doors and speaking to people. The political winds behind you or in front of you make a difference.
    The Lib Dems win stuff like this because they absolute pummel areas. Conservatives just don’t have the spirit and enthusiasm to win.
    Conservative usual election strategy at a council by election, Get nominations, put out an introduction leaflet, put out maybe a second leaflet, and contact by letter the people who you know who vote for you.
    In between that a bit of canvassing on the weekend, and maybe a bit during the week, with the candidate limited by the willingness of volunteers to come out and deliver and door knock.

    Liberals just aren’t like that, they are like tele-evangelists, they are out there knocking on doors continuously. No possible vote is missed. They’ll canvass an area, go back and canvass the outs, they’ll be hand written (faux hand written)letters to those they have spoke to who might consider voting.
    They’ll be no issue, or position that they will not take if it doesn’t gain them an advantage. Not saying conservative won’t be opportunistic, but we are talking about unashamed willingness to say and do anything that will gain a vote.

    The Lib Dems win because they really want it, it’s the political version of Protestant work ethic. With a newly elected Lib Dem MP , and a clean extensive canvass list they can get out that small number they need to romp home in a by election.

    To beat the Lib Dems you need to match them door for door, leaflet for leaflet.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,479

    ydoethur said:

    The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
    Same here but I know why I have the feeling of unease.

    It's a direct consequence of the feeling of unease I have that there is a large enough proportion of the Tory membership who are racist to tip the balance.
    If Jenrick wins and Trump loses, I could live with it.

    I mean Jenrick is a Tristram Hunt, but Trump is much worse and would have actual power.

    Plus there's little danger of such a Mickey Mouse leader of the Tories lasting more than a year or so.
    Alexander Johnson lasted three.
    Years, Disney films or girlfriends?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,415
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Perfectly normal again.

    Trump: Liz Cheney would not fight. I will go with her, wherever she wants, and we will fight. She doesn't have the guts to fight. She's all talk and no action.
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1852473139227509129

    President 'Bone Spurs' says others wouldn't fight...
    It has to be said, to be fair to Trump, as President he didn't generally send troops abroad. He talked a lot, but in the end confined himself mostly to random dronings. It's one reason why American prestige (which is essentially based on fear) was at a low ebb when Biden came in.

    It was America where he sent others off to fight while chickening out himself...
    The only thing worse than US intervention abroad is US non-intervention.

    A multipolar world would not be one where big powers respected the sovereignty of smaller powers, or respected human rights.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300
    edited November 2
    So deffo not the 1997-2001 parliament redux then, lol! 😂
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,505
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
    Same here but I know why I have the feeling of unease.

    It's a direct consequence of the feeling of unease I have that there is a large enough proportion of the Tory membership who are racist to tip the balance.
    If Jenrick wins and Trump loses, I could live with it.

    I mean Jenrick is a Tristram Hunt, but Trump is much worse and would have actual power.

    Plus there's little danger of such a Mickey Mouse leader of the Tories lasting more than a year or so.
    Alexander Johnson lasted three.
    Years, Disney films or girlfriends?
    Don't be silly, you last option is a foolish underestimation.
  • Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m
  • Ratters said:

    On topic, Labour needs to govern assuming it has one term. That means being slightly more radical with any reforms they wish to complete in the next 18 months. What they definitely shouldn't do is get cold feet because of a few bad mid-term polls. They won a big majority: use it.

    That needs to go beyond tax and spend if they want to have a lasting legacy from their time in office. But I understand why they needed to do big tax rises early to maximise their impact and make them fade from memory by the next election.

    I'm hoping planning reform, in particular, is sufficiently ambitious when it comes to pass.

    They underestimate just how much of the third sector is captured by Green anti growth obstructionism though. This sits hands in glove with oldies who don’t want their area to change.
    If they haven’t got this stuff out there, and councils being mandated to update their own local development plans, they’ll have no chance of making lasting change by 2029.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,927

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    I suspect until the pollsters get their new methodologies in place we're going to see some outlier polls though whether it's Techne or BMG which is the outlier remains to be seen? The seemingly all-powerful Conservatives (no giggling in the cheap seats) did lose two local council by-election seats to the LDs on Thursday.

    The result in Hampshire - probably the last County Council seat to face a by-election as it's barely six months to the full set of elections in May 2025 - was a swing from Conservative to LD of 26% from the 2021 numbers. Now, with all the usual caveats about local council by-elections, that suggests it could be a difficult evening for some Conservatives in parts of the south and south east next May but there's an eternity to go and it's entirely possible Jenrick or Badenoch, much as Hague did, will be able to get local momentum going for the party in the New Year.

    One poll with a one point lead doesn't make an autumn nor does it mean anything much of anything in all honesty though I note the Conservative rise is mirrored by Reform easing back so we might see a rebalancing of this "bloc" of Conservative/Reform voters (or we may not especially if Reform, who also won a seat on Thursday from Labour capitalise on any Westminster by-election).

    By elections are won by feet on the ground, knocking on doors and speaking to people. The political winds behind you or in front of you make a difference.
    The Lib Dems win stuff like this because they absolute pummel areas. Conservatives just don’t have the spirit and enthusiasm to win.
    Conservative usual election strategy at a council by election, Get nominations, put out an introduction leaflet, put out maybe a second leaflet, and contact by letter the people who you know who vote for you.
    In between that a bit of canvassing on the weekend, and maybe a bit during the week, with the candidate limited by the willingness of volunteers to come out and deliver and door knock.

    Liberals just aren’t like that, they are like tele-evangelists, they are out there knocking on doors continuously. No possible vote is missed. They’ll canvass an area, go back and canvass the outs, they’ll be hand written (faux hand written)letters to those they have spoke to who might consider voting.
    They’ll be no issue, or position that they will not take if it doesn’t gain them an advantage. Not saying conservative won’t be opportunistic, but we are talking about unashamed willingness to say and do anything that will gain a vote.

    The Lib Dems win because they really want it, it’s the political version of Protestant work ethic. With a newly elected Lib Dem MP , and a clean extensive canvass list they can get out that small number they need to romp home in a by election.

    To beat the Lib Dems you need to match them door for door, leaflet for leaflet.
    Do I detect a note of envy there from someone in the Conservative camp?

    Conservatives CAN do the local campaigning and sometimes they do it very well. It's best when they pick a candidate who doesn't tether themselves to the Conservative Party nationally but is a "good local candidate" with some credibility in the community and the blue rosette is simply a help.

    As to the state of local Conservative organisations, July suggested it wasn't good in a lot of places but that can and likely will change if the Party can establish itself as the clear alternative to Labour. The problem is you have areas of LD and Green strength and of course Reform now starting to organise local and constituency branches.

    The days when the Conservatives would be the natural inheritors of the protest vote against a Labour Government are over - the new leader has a big task ahead. I'll be honest - if whoever is up to that task not only could they very likely become Prime Minister, they'll deserve to.
  • IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
    Same here but I know why I have the feeling of unease.

    It's a direct consequence of the feeling of unease I have that there is a large enough proportion of the Tory membership who are racist to tip the balance.
    If Jenrick wins and Trump loses, I could live with it.

    I mean Jenrick is a Tristram Hunt, but Trump is much worse and would have actual power.

    Plus there's little danger of such a Mickey Mouse leader of the Tories lasting more than a year or so.
    Cleverly clearly doesn’t want to risk being tainted by what he thinks is incoming.
    A man who couldn’t win an election in which the majority of the electorate actually wanted him to win.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,927
    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    I suspect until the pollsters get their new methodologies in place we're going to see some outlier polls though whether it's Techne or BMG which is the outlier remains to be seen? The seemingly all-powerful Conservatives (no giggling in the cheap seats) did lose two local council by-election seats to the LDs on Thursday.

    The result in Hampshire - probably the last County Council seat to face a by-election as it's barely six months to the full set of elections in May 2025 - was a swing from Conservative to LD of 26% from the 2021 numbers. Now, with all the usual caveats about local council by-elections, that suggests it could be a difficult evening for some Conservatives in parts of the south and south east next May but there's an eternity to go and it's entirely possible Jenrick or Badenoch, much as Hague did, will be able to get local momentum going for the party in the New Year.

    One poll with a one point lead doesn't make an autumn nor does it mean anything much of anything in all honesty though I note the Conservative rise is mirrored by Reform easing back so we might see a rebalancing of this "bloc" of Conservative/Reform voters (or we may not especially if Reform, who also won a seat on Thursday from Labour capitalise on any Westminster by-election).

    It’s hard to see the Conservatives not losing seats (and some councils), to the Lib Dems, in May 2025. They are performing better, relative to 2022-24, but not relative to 2021.

    As against that, they should win some mayoralties, and hold counties comfortably, such as Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, where the main opponent is Labour.

    Labour will likely lose quite a few seats to Reform.
    That's a fair assessment but Reform could well win seats which might otherwise have gone Conservative in places like Derbyshire where Reform is strong.

    Don't estimate the threat to Conservative seats in Derbyshire from Reform either.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,927

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    This did the rounds after 1997 as I recall when I think "Reform" was one of the names mentioned.
  • stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    I suspect until the pollsters get their new methodologies in place we're going to see some outlier polls though whether it's Techne or BMG which is the outlier remains to be seen? The seemingly all-powerful Conservatives (no giggling in the cheap seats) did lose two local council by-election seats to the LDs on Thursday.

    The result in Hampshire - probably the last County Council seat to face a by-election as it's barely six months to the full set of elections in May 2025 - was a swing from Conservative to LD of 26% from the 2021 numbers. Now, with all the usual caveats about local council by-elections, that suggests it could be a difficult evening for some Conservatives in parts of the south and south east next May but there's an eternity to go and it's entirely possible Jenrick or Badenoch, much as Hague did, will be able to get local momentum going for the party in the New Year.

    One poll with a one point lead doesn't make an autumn nor does it mean anything much of anything in all honesty though I note the Conservative rise is mirrored by Reform easing back so we might see a rebalancing of this "bloc" of Conservative/Reform voters (or we may not especially if Reform, who also won a seat on Thursday from Labour capitalise on any Westminster by-election).

    By elections are won by feet on the ground, knocking on doors and speaking to people. The political winds behind you or in front of you make a difference.
    The Lib Dems win stuff like this because they absolute pummel areas. Conservatives just don’t have the spirit and enthusiasm to win.
    Conservative usual election strategy at a council by election, Get nominations, put out an introduction leaflet, put out maybe a second leaflet, and contact by letter the people who you know who vote for you.
    In between that a bit of canvassing on the weekend, and maybe a bit during the week, with the candidate limited by the willingness of volunteers to come out and deliver and door knock.

    Liberals just aren’t like that, they are like tele-evangelists, they are out there knocking on doors continuously. No possible vote is missed. They’ll canvass an area, go back and canvass the outs, they’ll be hand written (faux hand written)letters to those they have spoke to who might consider voting.
    They’ll be no issue, or position that they will not take if it doesn’t gain them an advantage. Not saying conservative won’t be opportunistic, but we are talking about unashamed willingness to say and do anything that will gain a vote.

    The Lib Dems win because they really want it, it’s the political version of Protestant work ethic. With a newly elected Lib Dem MP , and a clean extensive canvass list they can get out that small number they need to romp home in a by election.

    To beat the Lib Dems you need to match them door for door, leaflet for leaflet.
    Do I detect a note of envy there from someone in the Conservative camp?

    Conservatives CAN do the local campaigning and sometimes they do it very well. It's best when they pick a candidate who doesn't tether themselves to the Conservative Party nationally but is a "good local candidate" with some credibility in the community and the blue rosette is simply a help.

    As to the state of local Conservative organisations, July suggested it wasn't good in a lot of places but that can and likely will change if the Party can establish itself as the clear alternative to Labour. The problem is you have areas of LD and Green strength and of course Reform now starting to organise local and constituency branches.

    The days when the Conservatives would be the natural inheritors of the protest vote against a Labour Government are over - the new leader has a big task ahead. I'll be honest - if whoever is up to that task not only could they very likely become Prime Minister, they'll deserve to.
    You should always learn from people doing something better than you are. Of course they can do good local campaigns. Having being in a few, but it is hard work motivating the associations.

    Things won’t be easy, but by elections are rarely three way things, you often end up with the one likely to win and the one working their socks off to beat them.

    Reform are a problem, just putting their name on the ballot gets them 15% of the vote. I’ve come across many a long term conservative pledge actively angry at the conservative and would rather, to use his description, sh*t his own pants than vote for us ever again.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,505

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    It's all a bit like Lenny Henry's joke about changing the name of Windscale to Sellafield and nuclear fallout to magic moon beams.

    The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.

    Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,900

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    clownshow.com is still available.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,685

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    Interesting. Sounds like an opportunity for a public competition with “reform” taken. Odds have to be on the “Rightie mc Right face” Party

    However they in a post modernist twist they might go for the “Nasty” Party. Has a certain Ronseal authenticity to it that might play well in these strange times.
  • Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    It's all a bit like Lenny Henry's joke about changing the name of Windscale to Sellafield and nuclear fallout to magic moon beams.

    The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.

    Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
    Boris was the most ‘one nation’ conservative there was. Big spending, irresponsible government.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    They said that in '97. There were several suggestions for new names.

    None of them repeatable on here
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,849
    GIN1138 said:

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    Isn't "Tory" / "Tories" more of a nickname / term of abuse? The Conservatives don't use "Tory" in any official capacity and I suspect even of they change their name from "Conservatives" people will still use "Tory" as a term of abuse... Lets face it, the name has survived since 1832 lol...
    Yes, Tory would stick whatever they changed their name to. In Canada the Tory mantle passed from the PCP to the CPC.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,900

    The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
    Wouldn't that put a smile on all our faces :D

    Sunder Katwala
    @sundersays
    If wanted to find a path for Robert Jenrick to win, I think very low turnout could be it

    Jenrick 35,000 (51%)
    Badenoch 34,000 (49%)
    60% turnout (69,000 votes cast)

    Despite George Osborne voting for Badenoch, third of the party that voted Jeremy Hunt 2019 mostly sits this out
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,565
    SKS fans please explain
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,505

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    It's all a bit like Lenny Henry's joke about changing the name of Windscale to Sellafield and nuclear fallout to magic moon beams.

    The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.

    Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
    Boris was the most ‘one nation’ conservative there was. Big spending, irresponsible government.
    Big spending on PPE contracts for friends and family is not one nation Conservatism.
  • The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
    Wouldn't that put a smile on all our faces :D
    I am with you on Kemi.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,685

    SKS fans please explain

    It’s more like 2010 and 1979 than 1997.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,053

    GIN1138 said:

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    Isn't "Tory" / "Tories" more of a nickname / term of abuse? The Conservatives don't use "Tory" in any official capacity and I suspect even of they change their name from "Conservatives" people will still use "Tory" as a term of abuse... Lets face it, the name has survived since 1832 lol...
    If the Tories elect their second consecutive non white leader (and fourth woman leader) then they should rename themselves as the Progressives as a contrast to the pale, stale, and male Labour party.
    Shame British National Party is already taken.
    The Freedom Party? Some brothers in arms on the continent.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,083
    Money coming for Kemi in a thin Betfair market.

    Kemi 1.1
    Bob J 9.2 (was 6 an hour or so back)
  • DavidL said:

    @DavidL comment at the end of the last post:

    I’m not sure it is that close. The US election is about vision, enthusiasm and turnout and Harris is winning that battle hands down. You only have to look at the campaigns. Trump’s is a low energy car crash. Harris quite the opposite, but with a relentless focus on why her vision is positive and inclusive. Read the tealeaves and everywhere there is evidence that Trump is seen as a bit stale, even by some who voted for him in 2020 and 2016. There are multiple high profile republicans endorsing Harris, anybody the opposite?

    The pollsters and talking heads thought Trump would win from early and never got beyond Biden dropping out of the race. That changed everything. But they’d made their minds up and to maintain their worldview of Trump eking out a win in the Hawwrrsse Rrace they have been ignoring fundamentals and skewing polls ever since.

    The Biden/Trump debate was peak Trump. It’s been downhill ever since. He wanted revenge on Biden and he now looks old and tired. The Harris campaign and ground game is wiping the floor with them.

    Anyway the betting has provided the best value since Brexit. I’ve done Harris at 11/8 and to win PA at 11/10.



    I haven't put any bets on this time, the first US election for several cycles that is the case. But I am tempted with the spread bet for Harris in the electoral college which seems wildly pessimistic. I am also tempted with Harris in NC.

    Meantime, Harris is finishing like an express train with 3 events in Pennsylvania today. I think people will look back at her success with astonishment. She took over at short notice, had Biden making not entirely helpful contributions and generally losing the place, she had many of the disadvantages of incumbency and very few of the benefits, she started miles behind and has powered her way to a commanding position. Now she has to deliver and I think she will, possibly a slightly flattering victory as a series of swing states go her way by narrow margins. I hope we know by the end of the week.
    I completely agree with your assessment of Harris!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Mr. Jonathan, I agree it's more akin to 2010 and 1979 than 1997 but there is a major difference: Labour are inheriting an economically difficult picture rather than the Conservatives (or a Con-Lib Coalition).

    We'll see how well Starmer and Reeves end up doing. Labour's rather happy spending away to make themselves feel better than incurring economic woe which the Conservatives have to deal with, as opposed to running a tight ship.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,900

    Conor Sen
    @conorsen
    My God, the Polymarket whale is just some French guy with completely replacement-level views:

    https://x.com/conorsen/status/1852450558088470599
  • GIN1138 said:

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    Isn't "Tory" / "Tories" more of a nickname / term of abuse? The Conservatives don't use "Tory" in any official capacity and I suspect even of they change their name from "Conservatives" people will still use "Tory" as a term of abuse... Lets face it, the name has survived since 1832 lol...
    If the Tories elect their second consecutive non white leader (and fourth woman leader) then they should rename themselves as the Progressives as a contrast to the pale, stale, and male Labour party.
    Shame British National Party is already taken.
    The Freedom Party? Some brothers in arms on the continent.
    Always said parties with National Party in their name are parties all right thinking people should never vote for because those parties bring division by blaming others.
  • Nigelb said:

    Perfectly normal again.

    Trump: Liz Cheney would not fight. I will go with her, wherever she wants, and we will fight. She doesn't have the guts to fight. She's all talk and no action.
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1852473139227509129

    Sounds like someone else we all know.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,576

    moonshine said:

    Is @Leon facing a life time ban rather than sin bin by the way?

    The focus of PB over the next week or so will be on the US presidential election.

    We are not going to let the dribblings of a soaked up racist popinjay distract PB from one of the biggest betting markets ever.
    3 points to Gryffindor for “popinjay”
  • Sandpit said:

    Is Rishi Sunak the first party leader in decades to leave office ahead in the polls?

    It helps him with a new life abroad.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,565

    The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
    Wouldn't that put a smile on all our faces :D

    Sunder Katwala
    @sundersays
    If wanted to find a path for Robert Jenrick to win, I think very low turnout could be it

    Jenrick 35,000 (51%)
    Badenoch 34,000 (49%)
    60% turnout (69,000 votes cast)

    Despite George Osborne voting for Badenoch, third of the party that voted Jeremy Hunt 2019 mostly sits this out
    I think Badenoch wins because she offers something to both right and left of the party.

    I'm not sure how close it will be.
  • The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
    Because the last poll only had Badenoch winning by 4%, the poll prior to that had her defeating Jenrick by 18%.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/01/is-kemi-kaze-badenoch-about-to-blow-an-18-lead/
    Polls are always informative.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,505

    GIN1138 said:

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    Isn't "Tory" / "Tories" more of a nickname / term of abuse? The Conservatives don't use "Tory" in any official capacity and I suspect even of they change their name from "Conservatives" people will still use "Tory" as a term of abuse... Lets face it, the name has survived since 1832 lol...
    If the Tories elect their second consecutive non white leader (and fourth woman leader) then they should rename themselves as the Progressives as a contrast to the pale, stale, and male Labour party.
    Shame British National Party is already taken.
    The Freedom Party? Some brothers in arms on the continent.
    The MEGA Party. Make England Great Again would be current and capture the mood of a changing world.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,083

    The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
    Same here but I know why I have the feeling of unease.

    It's a direct consequence of the feeling of unease I have that there is a large enough proportion of the Tory membership who are racist to tip the balance.
    It is not racists that Kemi needs worry about but academic snobs. Jenrick is a Cambridge-educated lawyer who went to Cambridge and Kemi went to Sussex, what we used to call a plate glass university.

    On the other hand, Kemi worked at McDonalds like the next POTUS.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,565

    Money coming for Kemi in a thin Betfair market.

    Kemi 1.1
    Bob J 9.2 (was 6 an hour or so back)

    At this point the results are known and it's just waiting for a sociable hour to officially announce them.
  • Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Perfectly normal again.

    Trump: Liz Cheney would not fight. I will go with her, wherever she wants, and we will fight. She doesn't have the guts to fight. She's all talk and no action.
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1852473139227509129

    President 'Bone Spurs' says others wouldn't fight...
    It has to be said, to be fair to Trump, as President he didn't generally send troops abroad. He talked a lot, but in the end confined himself mostly to random dronings. It's one reason why American prestige (which is essentially based on fear) was at a low ebb when Biden came in.

    It was America where he sent others off to fight while chickening out himself...
    The only thing worse than US intervention abroad is US non-intervention.

    A multipolar world would not be one where big powers respected the sovereignty of smaller powers, or respected human rights.
    Which war and what date was the last time American soldiers were sent into combat? As opposed to weapons being used by themselves.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,505

    The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
    Wouldn't that put a smile on all our faces :D
    I am with you on Kemi.
    Badenoch if she can rein in her haughtiness might impress on the upside. Jenrick swimming with Farage in the sewer not so much.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,656

    The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
    We're not sure who the remaining Conservative membership are, or which of them have voted.

    (Number of votes won by the winner might be an interesting challenge to predict.)

    That gives space for something weird to happen.
    Last time out the electorate was 170,000 and the turnout 142,000. Truss got 80k votes and Sunak 60k votes.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60037657
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,565

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    This is an old canard. But the term has been in use for hundreds of years so is unlikely to go anywhere.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,083

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    Whoever wins should find a new election consultant after their Aussie chums wrecked strong and stable Theresa May's chances and this year lost in a landslide to a party that got fewer votes than when led by Jeremy Corbyn.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,505

    The leadership result is announced at 11am but I'm busy then, so I'll pick it up later.

    Kemi should have it, but why do I have this lingering feeling of unease that Jenrick is going to spring a surprise?
    Because the last poll only had Badenoch winning by 4%, the poll prior to that had her defeating Jenrick by 18%.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/01/is-kemi-kaze-badenoch-about-to-blow-an-18-lead/
    Polls are always informative.
    Can I introduce Robert Cahally's Trafalgar Group to you?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,971

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    It's all a bit like Lenny Henry's joke about changing the name of Windscale to Sellafield and nuclear fallout to magic moon beams.

    The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.

    Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
    Boris was the most ‘one nation’ conservative there was. Big spending, irresponsible government.
    Big spending on PPE contracts for friends and family is not one nation Conservatism.
    Labour would have done the same if they'd be in power during the Covid crisis.

    Seriously. They said as much at the time, when they were advocating for unknown companies to get contracts in parliament (and using it as a stick too bash the government with).

    And as we've seen with the good Lord Alli's 'donations'; they're not beyond a little personal grift.

    The alternative was not to get any PPE, or at least in nowhere near as quick time. Yes, it was immensely wasteful; but I cannot see a way, in those fevered months, we could have got the PPE without waste. There was just too much worldwide demand, and ordinary processes just would not work.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,632
    Result expected shortly after 11am, rumours that the turnout was above 70% and a decent margin of victory for the winner. Decent is okay, but decisive would have been better.
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