Categories
For the first time in nearly three years the Tories lead in the polls – politicalbetting.com
For the first time in nearly three years the Tories lead in the polls – politicalbetting.com
What a feat by Rishi Sunak, turning around a Labour lead of 20 points in just two short years https://t.co/TnHup30vGq
0
Comments
Techne may disagree
In fact, the only easier lay in the universe than Boris Johnson.
Trump: Liz Cheney would not fight. I will go with her, wherever she wants, and we will fight. She doesn't have the guts to fight. She's all talk and no action.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1852473139227509129
We are not going to let the dribblings of a soaked up racist popinjay distract PB from one of the biggest betting markets ever.
David Cameron (pbuh) led in the polls when he retired.
Indeed he led in more polls with bigger leads.
The ban hammer will be getting a lot of work, I take it?
Suck it up.
The source says he’s seen the poll and can verify it’s legit . He helps to run the Split Ticket website.
Trump isn’t going to lose Ohio , there’s no chance of that happening but it does have implications for the Senate and the neighbouring rust belt in terms of the way the wind blows .
His authority was shot, they were arguing that they didn't want the man who had who they viewed as getting a poor renegotiation negotiating the UK's exit deal.
He thought a new leader would be able to get a really good deal as they wouldn't have his baggage.
I’m not sure it is that close. The US election is about vision, enthusiasm and turnout and Harris is winning that battle hands down. You only have to look at the campaigns. Trump’s is a low energy car crash. Harris quite the opposite, but with a relentless focus on why her vision is positive and inclusive. Read the tealeaves and everywhere there is evidence that Trump is seen as a bit stale, even by some who voted for him in 2020 and 2016. There are multiple high profile republicans endorsing Harris, anybody the opposite?
The pollsters and talking heads thought Trump would win from early and never got beyond Biden dropping out of the race. That changed everything. But they’d made their minds up and to maintain their worldview of Trump eking out a win in the Hawwrrsse Rrace they have been ignoring fundamentals and skewing polls ever since.
The Biden/Trump debate was peak Trump. It’s been downhill ever since. He wanted revenge on Biden and he now looks old and tired. The Harris campaign and ground game is wiping the floor with them.
Anyway the betting has provided the best value since Brexit. I’ve done Harris at 11/8 and to win PA at 11/10.
Can't they postpone it until 5 so the important people like the denizens of PB can pay due attention?
It would overlook one quite important factor, but it would be technically true.
That needs to go beyond tax and spend if they want to have a lasting legacy from their time in office. But I understand why they needed to do big tax rises early to maximise their impact and make them fade from memory by the next election.
I'm hoping planning reform, in particular, is sufficiently ambitious when it comes to pass.
It's a direct consequence of the feeling of unease I have that there is a large enough proportion of the Tory membership who are racist to tip the balance.
It was America where he sent others off to fight while chickening out himself...
Major didn't get any leads after losing.
Callaghan was fairly solidly ahead in the polls from pretty much the day after the '79 election. That lead kept growing up the moment that Labour replaced him with someone utterly implausible.
I mean Jenrick is a Tristram Hunt, but Trump is much worse and would have actual power.
Plus there's little danger of such a Mickey Mouse leader of the Tories lasting more than a year or so.
(Awaits 80% vote for Kemi)
Brown quit as leader straight after the election thus Harriet Harman became acting leader
I suspect until the pollsters get their new methodologies in place we're going to see some outlier polls though whether it's Techne or BMG which is the outlier remains to be seen? The seemingly all-powerful Conservatives (no giggling in the cheap seats) did lose two local council by-election seats to the LDs on Thursday.
The result in Hampshire - probably the last County Council seat to face a by-election as it's barely six months to the full set of elections in May 2025 - was a swing from Conservative to LD of 26% from the 2021 numbers. Now, with all the usual caveats about local council by-elections, that suggests it could be a difficult evening for some Conservatives in parts of the south and south east next May but there's an eternity to go and it's entirely possible Jenrick or Badenoch, much as Hague did, will be able to get local momentum going for the party in the New Year.
One poll with a one point lead doesn't make an autumn nor does it mean anything much of anything in all honesty though I note the Conservative rise is mirrored by Reform easing back so we might see a rebalancing of this "bloc" of Conservative/Reform voters (or we may not especially if Reform, who also won a seat on Thursday from Labour capitalise on any Westminster by-election).
But somehow on PB the Republican Party is presented as some kind of corrupt voter suppressing evil Russian funded organisation, whilst the Democrats are squeaky clean.
The Democrat machine is at least as corrupt and thumb on the scales dodgy as the Republicans, There is no virtue in either, because when you have one side in charge of a place for a long period of time the rot sets in, no matter who it is. Chicago is renowned as one of the dirtiest places to do politics in the whole of the Union.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/01/is-kemi-kaze-badenoch-about-to-blow-an-18-lead/
Meantime, Harris is finishing like an express train with 3 events in Pennsylvania today. I think people will look back at her success with astonishment. She took over at short notice, had Biden making not entirely helpful contributions and generally losing the place, she had many of the disadvantages of incumbency and very few of the benefits, she started miles behind and has powered her way to a commanding position. Now she has to deliver and I think she will, possibly a slightly flattering victory as a series of swing states go her way by narrow margins. I hope we know by the end of the week.
So actually we could add Harman to that list...
#pedanticbetting.com
As against that, they should win some mayoralties, and hold counties comfortably, such as Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, where the main opponent is Labour.
Labour will likely lose quite a few seats to Reform.
(Number of votes won by the winner might be an interesting challenge to predict.)
That gives space for something weird to happen.
The Lib Dems win stuff like this because they absolute pummel areas. Conservatives just don’t have the spirit and enthusiasm to win.
Conservative usual election strategy at a council by election, Get nominations, put out an introduction leaflet, put out maybe a second leaflet, and contact by letter the people who you know who vote for you.
In between that a bit of canvassing on the weekend, and maybe a bit during the week, with the candidate limited by the willingness of volunteers to come out and deliver and door knock.
Liberals just aren’t like that, they are like tele-evangelists, they are out there knocking on doors continuously. No possible vote is missed. They’ll canvass an area, go back and canvass the outs, they’ll be hand written (faux hand written)letters to those they have spoke to who might consider voting.
They’ll be no issue, or position that they will not take if it doesn’t gain them an advantage. Not saying conservative won’t be opportunistic, but we are talking about unashamed willingness to say and do anything that will gain a vote.
The Lib Dems win because they really want it, it’s the political version of Protestant work ethic. With a newly elected Lib Dem MP , and a clean extensive canvass list they can get out that small number they need to romp home in a by election.
To beat the Lib Dems you need to match them door for door, leaflet for leaflet.
A multipolar world would not be one where big powers respected the sovereignty of smaller powers, or respected human rights.
Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m
If they haven’t got this stuff out there, and councils being mandated to update their own local development plans, they’ll have no chance of making lasting change by 2029.
Conservatives CAN do the local campaigning and sometimes they do it very well. It's best when they pick a candidate who doesn't tether themselves to the Conservative Party nationally but is a "good local candidate" with some credibility in the community and the blue rosette is simply a help.
As to the state of local Conservative organisations, July suggested it wasn't good in a lot of places but that can and likely will change if the Party can establish itself as the clear alternative to Labour. The problem is you have areas of LD and Green strength and of course Reform now starting to organise local and constituency branches.
The days when the Conservatives would be the natural inheritors of the protest vote against a Labour Government are over - the new leader has a big task ahead. I'll be honest - if whoever is up to that task not only could they very likely become Prime Minister, they'll deserve to.
Don't estimate the threat to Conservative seats in Derbyshire from Reform either.
Things won’t be easy, but by elections are rarely three way things, you often end up with the one likely to win and the one working their socks off to beat them.
Reform are a problem, just putting their name on the ballot gets them 15% of the vote. I’ve come across many a long term conservative pledge actively angry at the conservative and would rather, to use his description, sh*t his own pants than vote for us ever again.
The name Conservative is perfectly acceptable if they adopt one nation conservatism narratives, rather than fash-lite nonsense.
Talking of which. I disagree with DavidL (it wasn't me who flagged him) on rescinding the tiresome tourist's red card. This place has been far more civilised since his early bath.
However they in a post modernist twist they might go for the “Nasty” Party. Has a certain Ronseal authenticity to it that might play well in these strange times.
None of them repeatable on here
Sunder Katwala
@sundersays
If wanted to find a path for Robert Jenrick to win, I think very low turnout could be it
Jenrick 35,000 (51%)
Badenoch 34,000 (49%)
60% turnout (69,000 votes cast)
Despite George Osborne voting for Badenoch, third of the party that voted Jeremy Hunt 2019 mostly sits this out
The Freedom Party? Some brothers in arms on the continent.
Kemi 1.1
Bob J 9.2 (was 6 an hour or so back)
We'll see how well Starmer and Reeves end up doing. Labour's rather happy spending away to make themselves feel better than incurring economic woe which the Conservatives have to deal with, as opposed to running a tight ship.
Conor Sen
@conorsen
My God, the Polymarket whale is just some French guy with completely replacement-level views:
https://x.com/conorsen/status/1852450558088470599
I'm not sure how close it will be.
On the other hand, Kemi worked at McDonalds like the next POTUS.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60037657
Seriously. They said as much at the time, when they were advocating for unknown companies to get contracts in parliament (and using it as a stick too bash the government with).
And as we've seen with the good Lord Alli's 'donations'; they're not beyond a little personal grift.
The alternative was not to get any PPE, or at least in nowhere near as quick time. Yes, it was immensely wasteful; but I cannot see a way, in those fevered months, we could have got the PPE without waste. There was just too much worldwide demand, and ordinary processes just would not work.