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For the first time in nearly three years the Tories lead in the polls – politicalbetting.com

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  • National Hunt Horse Racing tips 🐎
    Ascot 2.05 - Martator
    Wetherby 2.22 - Twig
    Wetherby 2.58 - Hang In There
    Ascot 3.45 - CHIANTI CLASSICO ❤️

    Is that a tip, or just what you intend to open at 3.45pm?
  • It looks to me like noone really wants to back Jenrick but a few Kemi backers are trying to lay off some of their liability at 12s and 13s

    So risk mitigation really
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,316

    I have no doubt fraud happened. The line is that the fraud came from ministers giving contracts to friends and family. Anyone with an an ounce of knowledge on procurement knows that can’t happen.
    Well yes, any instances of friends and family benefiting is on another level entirely.
  • Nigelb said:

    Extremely unlikely the result won't have leaked ?
    I don't think the SMEGA..sorry..Tory party are known for betting on insider info are they?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    kle4 said:

    Wasn't that basically the reasoning of a court to some challenge to VIP procurement lanes or whatever? Basically that this was a critical and emergency situation, so it was lawful and reasonable to have expedited arrangements, even though it came with some risks?

    Doesn't mean there was no fraud, or that a good enough job to recover some funds has not happened, but the context is pretty darn important.

    One can well imagine the Cabinet meeting, with the Health Secretary saying everyone please go and ask everyone you know if there’s any way of getting PPE from anywhere.

    Ministers were not involved in the awarding of contracts though, that was done by DoH civil servants.

    None of the above means that the NAO shouldn’t be going after people who were paid for stuff that wasn’t delivered, but having a go at people who delivered what was promised for the price agreed isn’t going to wash in a court.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,961
    Jonathan said:

    The new Tory leader is elected and immediately turn their sights on Reform. They denounce the hard right and set out a new big tent on the centre right of British politics. The nasty culture war rhetoric is gone. There is no more fuck business or ideological nonsense. No more drill baby drill or denial of facts for political purposes. No more favours for mates. Policy isn’t focused on Daily Mail headlines.

    A pragmatic, entrepreneurial, evidence based, progressive right of centre with an eye on future emerges.

    I would quite like it if that happens. But the Conservative Party has spent decades disappointing me and I see no reason why either candidate will change that.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,293
    edited November 2024

    I sometimes wonder if you get paid to parody yourself.
    When the Mail and the Telegraph start writing jibberish and the Express puts Vanessa Feltz on their front page introducing her new radio station you know the game's up....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2yx1xxpk5o
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,316
    What score in a leadership contest is humiliatingly low?

    Anything in the 30s, or sub 35?

    I fear neither will happen, but we need to be prepared if there's a stunningly poor showing.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,220
    edited November 2024
    Number of Conservative Members

    I think the most interesting number at 11am will be the number of eligible voters, which will give us the first number of Conservative Members since Sept 2022, when it was ~172,000 who were eligible to vote for TRUSS - since when it has gone to hell in a handcart.

    Interesting times ahead if the Lib Dems, Reform, or the Greens overtake them. I think Lib Dems will do so, and may have already done so, and Reform might.

    How many members do you think the Conservative Party has?

    I punt on 110k.

    (I've had a superb header on this steeping for about a fortnight, but life etc ...")
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    Roger said:

    And a squadron of pigs goes flying over Westminster......
    The Pink Arrows fly past to mark historic occasion.

    I love piggies.

    I think Badenoch and her team will try to tack to centre and dump daft policies. She will dump Rwanda and ECHR obsession, that only came from Rwanda policy mistake anyway.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,713

    You have a poor memory.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5005818/#Comment_5005818
    I don't see the problem with this view personally, and nor do I think it is likely to be particularly unusual worldwide (or its equivalent).
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    Is that a tip, or just what you intend to open at 3.45pm?
    Both. 😇
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,285
    Cookie said:

    Di you have a link? Because honestly as I recall it it was something to the effect of "I don't want white people to die out".
    It was actually "I want more white British babies and fewer other kinds of people in Britain"

    "I don't want white people to die out" is completely bonkers, and also sounds fairly racist to me in most plausible contexts.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,972

    Both. 😇
    Followed by champagne at 4pm, I hope.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,782
    I was out with an old friend last night, he informed us his 20 something daughter just joined the Tory party. Couldn't offer a rationale explanation for it but there you go, it takes all sorts.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,220
    Sandpit said:

    There needs to be a change of approach to tertiary education. Encourage more degree apprenticeships and self-study options such as the OU, that aren’t three years living away from home and resulting in £50k+ of debt aged 21 or 22.
    We do that already as a popular option.

    There are hundreds of thousands of students who live at home (quick lookup says around half a million), and the Open University has 200,000 students.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,332
    Cookie said:

    There are mock elections at schools up and down the country being won by the Greens on the single issue of university fees. Leaning into this could garner a lot of votes from that generation and their parents.
    And lead to several Universities going bust in pretty quick order. The crisis in funding of further and higher education is now more serious than the NHS.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,411
    Sandpit said:

    There needs to be a change of approach to tertiary education. Encourage more degree apprenticeships and self-study options such as the OU, that aren’t three years living away from home and resulting in £50k+ of debt aged 21 or 22.
    I went well away from home to study, and it was very good for me. I was a middle-class youth from South Essex and I went to live in an industrial city in the North East. What's more I lived in lodgings and was 'done for' rather than a hall of residence.
    Highly recommend the experience.


    And Good Morning one and all.
  • Jenrick at over 20/1 now
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,314

    Jenrick at over 20/1 now

    This is the Tory party membership we are talking about. They routinely do the unthinkable.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,513
    Cicero said:

    And lead to several Universities going bust in pretty quick order. The crisis in funding of further and higher education is now more serious than the NHS.
    The NHS is too big to fail. Universities aren't.
  • 1.02
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,981
    Cicero said:

    And lead to several Universities going bust in pretty quick order. The crisis in funding of further and higher education is now more serious than the NHS.
    The problem is the kind of person who takes on debt for university tends to be aspirational but not from a hugely rich background. They then end up working in cities with massive housing pressure, so most of their salary goes on student loan repayments and rent.

    This is not how Conservative voters are formed, and is why Millenials remain so stubbornly left-wing.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,485
    Jonathan said:

    The new Tory leader is elected and immediately turn their sights on Reform. They denounce the hard right and set out a new big tent on the centre right of British politics. The nasty culture war rhetoric is gone. There is no more fuck business or ideological nonsense. No more drill baby drill or denial of facts for political purposes. No more favours for mates. Policy isn’t focused on Daily Mail headlines.

    A pragmatic, entrepreneurial, evidence based, progressive right of centre with an eye on future emerges.

    Aww, I'd missed your friendly advice for righties posts. Ought to be saving these priceless pearls for your own side these days though really shouldn't you?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,332

    The Tories need a broad church.

    There's certainly a need for moderate opposition to bien pensant thinking on left-liberal social policies and shibboleths, which, whilst not on its own decisive, is definitely out of kilter to political reality in the country.
    Most of the Moderate Tories either left or were chucked out under May, Johnson and Truss. The Tory party organisation is geriatric and still committed to unworkable and absurd policies and internal systems. If they do make moves to stop being Reform-Lite, it will still take a long time to be coherent, let alone positive.
  • 1.02

    Surely must’ve leaked? Dont the candidates themselves know now too? (Or if they don’t it must be imminent)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866

    Am I the only one who barely understood a word of that tweet?
    Anyone else reminded of the 2017 thing, where the a bunch of city traders tried roll-your-own-polling?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    MattW said:

    We do that already as a popular option.

    There are hundreds of thousands of students who live at home (quick lookup says around half a million), and the Open University has 200,000 students.
    I suspect that those numbers skew heavily to mature students rather than 18-year-olds. What’s needed is for schools to encourage such alternatives, government to incentivise companies to hire degree apprentice students, and for self-study options such as the OU to be significantly cheaper than a regular degree.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,961

    It’s only a derangement if it’s not actually happening. You might have missed the Cass report, the closure of a clinic in disgrace, the limiting of puberty blockers around the world.
    This is your semi-regular reminder that I have committed to a syntactic analysis of the Cass Report before year end - indeed, I'll start it after Weds.

    With regards to surgery, the UK doesn't do genital operations on children for trans purposes : in fact iirc it's illegal - I think Cyclefree pointed that out. The USA is very different and does, with numbers (I think - don't quote me!) in the thousands. A lot of the fervour of British people is based on the belief that Britain does what America does.

    As for the limiting of puberty blockers around the world, the picture is surprisingly mixed, with the USA, Australia, Japan rejecting Cass, Ireland and NZ considering it, others ignoring it or were there already. To do a proper work up on each country is difficult: it involves contacting each national medical association and there's quite a few. I've done something similar before (on different things!) so that would take me about a year. There are workarounds of less rigour (getting conference programmes and counting the nationality delegates?) but even so :(
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,485

    Jenrick at over 20/1 now

    Really should have waited for those odds before placing my small bet.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,314

    Really should have waited for those odds before placing my small bet.
    Definitely value, unless insider info is at play.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,617

    Tory is a dirty word, they must change their name, says election guru

    Sir Lynton Crosby, strategist known as the Wizard of Oz, says whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest needs a change of direction


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tory-dirty-word-conservative-party-lynton-crosby-k62dl5q7m

    “Tory” is not and has never been the party’s name. It was an insult by the whigs that stuck
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    I went well away from home to study, and it was very good for me. I was a middle-class youth from South Essex and I went to live in an industrial city in the North East. What's more I lived in lodgings and was 'done for' rather than a hall of residence.
    Highly recommend the experience.

    And Good Morning one and all.
    Good morning OKC!

    Yes there are advantages to studying away from home, but too many students are graduating with a lot of debt that will take decades to clear, and they’re marrying later and having fewer children as a result, not helped by out-of-control housing costs in many areas.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,485
    RobD said:

    Definitely value, unless insider info is at play.
    At this point you'd think it is, but you never know.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,961

    The Pink Arrows fly past to mark historic occasion.

    I love piggies.

    I think Badenoch and her team will try to tack to centre and dump daft policies. She will dump Rwanda and ECHR obsession, that only came from Rwanda policy mistake anyway.
    At the moment we don't know and are projecting: she will no doubt reveal herself in due course, and as Varoufakis says, we will suffer what we must... 🙏
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    Nigelb said:

    Extremely unlikely the result won't have leaked ?
    Bobby spotted in Waitrose buying gateaux. And a big bag of sharing malteesers (not a single bag of which in history has actually been shared)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135
    viewcode said:

    How do you know this?
    I am cribbing mercilessly from the Guardian UK politics live blog and not citing my sources.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    Sandpit said:

    Yes you need both sufficient stockpiles and strategic manufacturing capacity.

    IIRC the NHS was really impressed with Burberry gowns that appeared a couple of months into the pandemic, and one of my favourite stories of the pandemic was the Mercedes F1 engine factory that made CPAP machines.
    And people banging on about the Dyson ventilators - the main reason those weren’t proceeded with, was the turn away from full ventilation…

    Something that will bite us next time is the reliance on a patchwork of disposable PPE. If a vaguely airborne pathogen happens - won’t help. Plus the supply chain will collapse again. This is because disposable PPE has a shelf life. The French tried using stuff past the date and found it fell apart…

    Reusable PPE can be far more comfortable (built in air conditioning, face dam 3D printed to fit etc) and can be designed to integrate, as required, into a full suit.
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 372
    Sandpit said:

    I suspect that those numbers skew heavily to mature students rather than 18-year-olds. What’s needed is for schools to encourage such alternatives, government to incentivise companies to hire degree apprentice students, and for self-study options such as the OU to be significantly cheaper than a regular degree.
    The Open University has not yet brought back in person examinations or face to face tutorials following COVID. Is tertiary education with no in person teaching or assessment competitive with a traditional university?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,490

    That’s the rub. She needs a good deputy and chairman she will listen to.
    Could Jeremy Hunt be persuaded to help unite the various factions?
  • Aww, I'd missed your friendly advice for righties posts. Ought to be saving these priceless pearls for your own side these days though really shouldn't you?
    It says something about the state of politics at the moment that advice from supporters of other parties about how you might win their votes is somehow abhorrent.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735

    “Tory” is not and has never been the party’s name. It was an insult by the whigs that stuck
    It’s also like people have no memory. The brand felt like it was in the toilet in 1997 but by 2019 (and fleetingly in 2017) was actually quite popular, having certainly not been truly hated since before 2005, and with Cameron gobbling up the LibDems a real help.

    Things change.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,490
    Tres said:

    I was out with an old friend last night, he informed us his 20 something daughter just joined the Tory party. Couldn't offer a rationale explanation for it but there you go, it takes all sorts.

    A tory supporting boyfriend?
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 835
    edited November 2024
    Stereodog said:

    It says something about the state of politics at the moment that advice from supporters of other parties about how you might win their votes is somehow abhorrent.
    Meh, he was telling me off for advice yesterday when I'm actual party member :D (although admittedly not voter)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,314

    A tory supporting boyfriend?
    Heaven forbid she has her own views.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,531
    Well the market says Kemi. Soon find out. Exciting, as these things always are. I'm green on both, which is nice.

    One thing that's struck me about the commentary on this one is how little focus there's been on the demographics of the electorate. Eg who is winning women under 30? Are there any women under 30? Who has the edge with the all important retirees vote. Did they come out in big numbers? etc - nobody seemed to bother with any of that.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    kamski said:

    It was actually "I want more white British babies and fewer other kinds of people in Britain"

    "I don't want white people to die out" is completely bonkers, and also sounds fairly racist to me in most plausible contexts.
    The later is problematic - though not specifically racist.

    The former is 14 words, with less stylisation.

    On the later, I recall an entertaining article in the Guardian about how black peoples in the U.K., instead of staying in their place in the cities, were “fleeing” into the countryside. Where they tended to intermarry…. Which was bad.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,961
    Given the fact that this is the Conservative Party we are talking about, can't we just assume that somebody with leaked info is betting? Not in a sarky way but guys, c'mon, they do have form on this... 😃
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,490
    Cicero said:

    And lead to several Universities going bust in pretty quick order. The crisis in funding of further and higher education is now more serious than the NHS.
    I disagree, on the basis that higher education is less important than universal healthcare.
  • Squeaky bum time as Kemi drifts but the 1.14 is quickly taken.

    Kemi 1.06
    Bob J 10
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    viewcode said:

    At the moment we don't know and are projecting: she will no doubt reveal herself in due course, and as Varoufakis says, we will suffer what we must... 🙏
    Dump Rwanda policy. Economically talk about waste, lack of UK productivity and lack of UK growth under Starmer’s Labour.

    And look at the hay Badeoch anti-woke agenda is having down ballot in the US election.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    edited November 2024

    A tory supporting boyfriend?
    Based on the jokes in Hancock, 50 years ago the answer would have been “to find an other half”.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,617

    Labour may prove incompetent over the next five years but the PPE fast lanes were venal, unbridled corruption. They were
    indefensible at the time and they are now.

    Experienced NHS procurement organisations were left of the list whilst brothers and sisters of Ministers with AliExpress accounts were handed millions of tax pounds.
    That’s a very serious allegation

    Do you have a link?
  • I went well away from home to study, and it was very good for me. I was a middle-class youth from South Essex and I went to live in an industrial city in the North East. What's more I lived in lodgings and was 'done for' rather than a hall of residence.
    Highly recommend the experience.


    And Good Morning one and all.
    Yes, in many, probably most cases, the finishing school side of university is the most valuable part, outside of trade school degrees like medicine.
  • kinabalu said:

    Well the market says Kemi. Soon find out. Exciting, as these things always are. I'm green on both, which is nice.

    One thing that's struck me about the commentary on this one is how little focus there's been on the demographics of the electorate. Eg who is winning women under 30? Are there any women under 30? Who has the edge with the all important retirees vote. Did they come out in big numbers? etc - nobody seemed to bother with any of that.

    It's been absolutely useless tbh. As has the polling.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,411
    Sandpit said:

    Good morning OKC!

    Yes there are advantages to studying away from home, but too many students are graduating with a lot of debt that will take decades to clear, and they’re marrying later and having fewer children as a result, not helped by out-of-control housing costs in many areas.
    Agree with you about the debt, and the situation is getting worse. Interestingly, admittedly several years ago now Mrs C and I went with our just-setting-up-home teacher grandson, and his fiancee, to buy some furniture. The idea was that we would give them a substantial deposit and they'd deal with the rest on HP.
    The sales staff, and apparently the HP lenders were interested in what the young couple earned, and what other outgoings they had, but not their student debts. Which, as they were both graduates and grandson had done teacher-training were, and I think still are, considerable.
  • kinabalu said:

    Well the market says Kemi. Soon find out. Exciting, as these things always are. I'm green on both, which is nice.

    One thing that's struck me about the commentary on this one is how little focus there's been on the demographics of the electorate. Eg who is winning women under 30? Are there any women under 30? Who has the edge with the all important retirees vote. Did they come out in big numbers? etc - nobody seemed to bother with any of that.

    Sophie on Sky says she is not "putting my money on this one, I'm really not".

    Could do either way she reckons.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    RobD said:

    Heaven forbid she has her own views.
    Apparently local Con clubs aren’t dating agencies for middle-class teens and twenties any more.
  • I :love: an all green market book!!!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Agree with you about the debt, and the situation is getting worse. Interestingly, admittedly several years ago now Mrs C and I went with our just-setting-up-home teacher grandson, and his fiancee, to buy some furniture. The idea was that we would give them a substantial deposit and they'd deal with the rest on HP.
    The sales staff, and apparently the HP lenders were interested in what the young couple earned, and what other outgoings they had, but not their student debts. Which, as they were both graduates and grandson had done teacher-training were, and I think still are, considerable.
    HP providers might not care too much about student debt, but mortgage providers definitely look into it. Good on you for helping your grandkids get set up though.
  • Tres said:

    I was out with an old friend last night, he informed us his 20 something daughter just joined the Tory party. Couldn't offer a rationale explanation for it but there you go, it takes all sorts.

    It is Halloween week after all.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,293
    OT. Interesting winner of Cannes Palm d'Or 'Anora' now on cinema release. Despite a score of 99% on Rotten Toms I could see little to admire. Daringly pornographic for a mainstream film I suppose but following last years 'Anatomy of a Fall' and the brilliant 'Zone of Interest' this shouldn't be in the same league.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,411
    edited November 2024
    Sandpit said:

    HP providers might not care too much about student debt, but mortgage providers definitely look into it. Good on you for helping your grandkids get set up though.
    Reflecting on this a bit I do wonder whether they'll have their student debt paid off before or after their (now) two year old starts on his!
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    Sandpit said:

    Apparently local Con clubs aren’t dating agencies for middle-class teens and twenties any more.
    Perhaps this should be a major priority for the new leader? “Join us, we’re better than tinder and the beer is cheap” is a good sell for an 18 year old.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,622
    Cancel the declaration. Rishi must stay!
  • Sandpit said:

    Apparently local Con clubs aren’t dating agencies for middle-class teens and twenties any more.
    Todays youngsters are small c conservative, far more than so the middle aged generations anyway. There are paths for a successful Conservative party to appear in the next 3-10 years but I doubt any of them particularly involve Badenoch or Jenrick.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735

    Reflecting on this a bit I do wonder whether they'll have their student debt paid off before or after their (now) two year old starts on his!
    On the new system, they aren’t really mean to and the state hopes they won’t. It’s a graduate tax designed to get around having to charge those of us who graduated before them.
  • Squeaky bum time as Kemi drifts but the 1.14 is quickly taken.

    Kemi 1.06
    Bob J 10

    And now we are back to where we started this morning. LOL.
  • ScarpiaScarpia Posts: 76
    edited November 2024
    kle4 said:

    Why is it always Liberal Democrat and not Democratic Liberal?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Liberal_Democratic_parties

    (there are a handful listed on another page, but very few).

    Originally - at merger - it was Social and Liberal Democrats as a mix of both parties identities, but rather a mouthful so shortened to Liberal Democrats after a couple of years. As well as SLD being pronounced Salad, which was not a particularly good brand image!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    biggles said:

    Perhaps this should be a major priority for the new leader? “Join us, we’re better than tinder and the beer is cheap” is a good sell for an 18 year old.
    I’ll drink to that! 🍻
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,411
    Sandpit said:

    Apparently local Con clubs aren’t dating agencies for middle-class teens and twenties any more.
    That was the Young Conservatives. Con clubs are drinking dens for people who can't get to Wetherspoons.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    You can have all your Presidential elections, John Curtice exit polls, referendums, parliamentary votes but for sheer excitement nothing beats the announcement of a new Tory party leader.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,220
    Sandpit said:

    I suspect that those numbers skew heavily to mature students rather than 18-year-olds. What’s needed is for schools to encourage such alternatives, government to incentivise companies to hire degree apprentice students, and for self-study options such as the OU to be significantly cheaper than a regular degree.
    I think the OU may skew that way. I expect that more general students do not skew very heavily.

    Absolutely agree on industry and Govt and Universities needing to push the alternatives - especially as its nothing new.

    Back in the 1980s I did a thin sandwich course, and my Company (Plessey) had an arrangement with the local University for specialist training courses and a sponsorship agreement. A number of our graduate software / hardware engineers had come up through the factory floor, starting at 16 or 18 and working into the Design Areas by the time they were 30.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,696
    edited November 2024
    Have others noticed this?

    It feels like there was a massive vibe shift against Kamala based on literally nothing and now there's a massive vibe shift in favor of Kamala based on literally nothing

    Nothing happened at any point to justify any of this


    https://x.com/swannmarcus89/status/1852580114078265384?s=46

    I hadn’t. Vibes still seem to be heavily with Trump at the moment.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    Scarpia said:

    Originally - at merger - it was Social and Liberal Democrats as a mix of both parties identities, but rather a mouthful so shortened to Liberal Democrats after a couple of years
    The old Spitting Image joke. “We’ll take the word ‘liberal’ from the Liberal Party and the word ‘party’ from the Social Democratic Party”.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Kemi would be the first female LOTO since Thatcher
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,411
    MattW said:

    I think the OU may skew that way. I expect that more general students do not skew very heavily.

    Absolutely agree on industry and Govt and Universities needing to push the alternatives - especially as its nothing new.

    Back in the 1980s I did a thin sandwich course, and my Company (Plessey) had an arrangement with the local University for specialist training courses and a sponsorship agreement. A number of our graduate software / hardware engineers had come up through the factory floor, starting at 16 or 18 and working into the Design Areas by the time they were 30.
    Our elder son did an Electronic Technician apprenticeship, then at 24 or so decided to 'top up' with a degree. So he did.
    Then had a very successful career in the motor-racing world.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,316
    TimS said:

    Have others noticed this?

    It feels like there was a massive vibe shift against Kamala based on literally nothing and now there's a massive vibe shift in favor of Kamala based on literally nothing

    Nothing happened at any point to justify any of this


    https://x.com/swannmarcus89/status/1852580114078265384?s=46

    I hadn’t. Vibes still seem to be heavily with Trump at the moment.

    Heavily? Not really. But it's just super close, slne good signs for him in a few places, and if they haven't accounted for underestimating him before then he'll win.

    Plus he won't accept defeat so has a non zero chance of winning through other means.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    TimS said:

    Have others noticed this?

    It feels like there was a massive vibe shift against Kamala based on literally nothing and now there's a massive vibe shift in favor of Kamala based on literally nothing

    Nothing happened at any point to justify any of this


    https://x.com/swannmarcus89/status/1852580114078265384?s=46

    I hadn’t. Vibes still seem to be heavily with Trump at the moment.

    In 2024 I think it’s hard to say, since most people sense the “vibe” based on their individual social media echo chamber.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,087
    biggles said:

    And the good news is, it’s an annual event.
    A buy annual event, indeed, given the candidates have to pay for it.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    TimS said:

    Have others noticed this?

    It feels like there was a massive vibe shift against Kamala based on literally nothing and now there's a massive vibe shift in favor of Kamala based on literally nothing

    Nothing happened at any point to justify any of this


    https://x.com/swannmarcus89/status/1852580114078265384?s=46

    I hadn’t. Vibes still seem to be heavily with Trump at the moment.

    Analysis of early voting is what is pushing it towards Harris.
  • “Tory” is not and has never been the party’s name. It was an insult by the whigs that stuck
    With some help from the Smegheads; Scottish Conservatives’ Twitter tag is @ScotTories.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,220
    I've been all over the previous thread (idiot), but I'll just FPT this one:

    I think people misunderstand who the "conservative" judges on the Supreme Court are. Several are idealogical about the constitution laid down by the forefathers above all else, rather than simply being a Trump / GOP stooge. That means your "progressive" causes are always going to run into difficulties, but not a slam dunk every whinge from the right gets waved through.
    IMO that's not quite right.

    The loyalty of the "originalist" (ie Federalist Society) judges, which is different from "conservative" (who would be eg the commentator Judge Luttig) is not to "the Constitution laid down", but to one particular approach to the Constitution laid down, which involves imposing their own set of dogmas on it, to give the answers that they want.

    They are willing to ignore bits of the Constitution, tweak other bits, import unjustified assumptions, ignore the context of when it was written (eg debates at the time it was written), do violence to decades or centuries of jurisprudence and legal scholarship, and so on - in pursuit of a pretence that they are the only respectable interpreters. If they need to tweak their situational ethics to give a different answer later because it is now convenient, they do so.

    For example, in the case of giving Trump Presidential Immunity so he is above the law, they ignored that the Constitution has a basic principle of no one being above the law, and the debates around that particular point at the time it was written, which provides elucidation.

    At a village idiot level, Aileen Cannon is a Junior hick-from-the-sticks Judge who declared 70 years of legal precedent around Special Prosecutors invalid, when she ruled in her Courthouse that there was no basis for special prosecutors, based on one of the Supreme Court Justices (Roberts?) including an off-the-wall statement in a one-judge opinion hinting at the possibility..

    A good analogy is to the values that various Evangelical groups impose on the text of the Bible so that it says what they want it to say eg at the extreme Young Earth Creationists, who start with the imposed assumption "Genesis is Literal History", rather than starting off with a more respectful question "What is Genesis?". An example of shades of grey is the debate around "innerrancy" vs "authority" of the text, the latter being less literalist.

    The so-called Originalists are like this - rather than approaching the text of the Constitution with respect for the document itself, and the Jurisprudence around it, they sit over it rather than under it and treat it as grist for their mill.

    I suspect that both the Constitution and the Bible, and the traditions around them, are resilient to these attempts, and in the end both groups of "Originalists" will be blown up by the documents they are trying to manipulate.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    MattW said:

    I think the OU may skew that way. I expect that more general students do not skew very heavily.

    Absolutely agree on industry and Govt and Universities needing to push the alternatives - especially as its nothing new.

    Back in the 1980s I did a thin sandwich course, and my Company (Plessey) had an arrangement with the local University for specialist training courses and a sponsorship agreement. A number of our graduate software / hardware engineers had come up through the factory floor, starting at 16 or 18 and working into the Design Areas by the time they were 30.
    Cool story. Yes we need to see much more of that sort of thing, especially for STEM subjects. Let industry work with universities to tailor courses towards useful skills in their degrees.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    ydoethur said:

    A buy annual event, indeed, given the candidates have to pay for it.
    121 Tory MPs and 55 months until the election, so sadly they can’t all have a go, but if they pair up as leaders and deputies they can.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,566

    Kemi would be the first female LOTO since Thatcher

    Margaret Beckett? Albeit briefly.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953
    Roger said:

    OT. Interesting winner of Cannes Palm d'Or 'Anora' now on cinema release. Despite a score of 99% on Rotten Toms I could see little to admire. Daringly pornographic for a mainstream film I suppose but following last years 'Anatomy of a Fall' and the brilliant 'Zone of Interest' this shouldn't be in the same league.

    It's a Sean Baker movie. The guy is known for making movies about sex workers (Tangerine is one of my favourite films), so showing up to a Sean Baker movie you should know what to expect.

    I didn't think it was pornographic at all, it was a film about how working class people are exploited by the ultra rich. We see that in the cleaners hoovering up around the oligarch's son, the henchmen sent after him, and so on. Echoes of Fitzgerald - "They were careless people, Tom and Daisy... they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness or whatever it was that kept them together, and let other people clean up the mess they had made." That was the point Anora was getting across.

    Without spoilering the ending for people who haven't seen it, it was clearly a commentary on how being a sex worker makes it impossible to experience intimacy in a non-transactional way.

    A deserved winner, IMHO, but YMMV.
  • The reality whatever the polls say is that SKS said he was prepared to make tough decisions and to be unpopular to make change.

    That is what he has done. If in five years he’s achieved some improvement he will be rewarded. If he isn’t, he will be out.

    But I still maintain that the odds are very much in Labour’s favour in 2029.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 727
    ohnotnow said:

    Margaret Beckett? Albeit briefly.
    Harriet Harman briefly?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,087
    ohnotnow said:

    Margaret Beckett? Albeit briefly.
    Harman!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,220
    Sandpit said:

    Cool story. Yes we need to see much more of that sort of thing, especially for STEM subjects. Let industry work with universities to tailor courses towards useful skills in their degrees.
    The irony is that the taxes to pay for it are already raised. Is the Apprenticeship Levy now not up to several billion a year?

    (Is that one of our rare hypothecated taxes?)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,087
    edited November 2024
    Gosh. What a lot of pompous verbal diarrhoea from this twat.

    Who is he?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    Crap poker face, Kemi.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,622
    Bobby J wearing the face of a loser
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,566
    ydoethur said:

    Harman!
    Bums! That's who I was actually thinking of then got muddled! I blame my excitement at the leadership announcement!
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 727
    They're dragging the result out more than Strictly.
This discussion has been closed.