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Ladbrokes think the Tory contest winner will not lead the party at the GE – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    kinabalu said:

    But there isn't really a left wing equivalent to the MailExTeleSun monster.
    It’s a really interesting difference to note between UK and US media, that in the UK the mainstream is right of centre and the alternative (mostly online) is of the left; whereas in the US most of the mainstream is of the left, and the alternative of the right.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    viewcode said:

    As for me, I was impressed by her as an individual, but her approach betrays her computer science background; tactical, methodical, problem solving, dealing with individual people, but no strategic sense, no big idea or even a collection of small ideas. I'd put her as a good manager but not a CEO, and she badly needs a theoretician, like Keith Joseph for Thatcherism or Daniel Hannan for Euroscepticism.

    However she now has a chance to perform at the highest level: let's see what she does.
    Er, she has already been a Secretary of State… an actual job “at the highest level”. She was useless. And cowardly, running away from the challenges of the role.

    So we have already “seen what she does”: fuck all.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,078
    kinabalu said:

    Ok so nothing in particular then. Good.
    Activate showing Trump 1% ahead nationally might have spooked some punters.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,464
    edited October 2024
    Five men have been arrested on suspicion of plotting a car bomb attack on a shopping centre in Tel Aviv. The men, Arab Israeli citizens, planned to carry out the attack in the name of extremist group Isis and had discussed how much explosives they would need to bring down one of the Azrieli Tower, a group of three skyscrapers.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,099

    What in Zeus's arsehole is going on in Multan?

    This could be a Test victory for the ages.

    The 6000mph winds there must be helping
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Eabhal said:

    In some respects, it's a healthy thing that the PM isn't a military nerd. Middle aged men who obsess over this kind of stuff are really weird.

    *Chucks grenade and logs out of PB*
    The same right-wing media who regularly make a hash of reporting WW2? Where every UK and Commonweaslth fighter is a RAF Spitfire? And the same rightwingers who used a photo of, IIRC, Spitfires of 330 (Polish) Sqn RAF to illustrate their propaganda of how awful immigrants were?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Nigelb said:

    There's very little evidence of a Badenoch policy agenda that anyone could have thwarted or delayed. Can anyone step up to provide some ?

    Thus far, it's all vibes.
    Seems to be working for Kamala ;)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,252

    Thanks, I will.

    I think you'd have fallen over yourself to forget any past indescretions on Jenrick's part if his politics was aligned with yours, and he was campaigning to integrate more closely with Europe rather than leaving the ECHR. Just like everyone forgot that Cleverly was a gaffe machine with no Ministerial achievements and a dangerous attitude to China that culminated in gaily signing over British sovereign territory to a China-aligned state, then idiotically trying to hammer Labour over it.

    Just like people who claim to have been disgusted by Boris' venal approach to Government, but don't give a crap when SKS's bunch are up to the same thing.
    There you go again equalising free Taylor Swift tickets to saving Desmond a £45m liability.

    Go Kemi!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Indeed. But mistaking a torpedo for a bomb in a war that took place when you were 20 years of age is hardly likely to do so.
    Especially if the chaps in Junkers or SM.79s were dropping both and both were going bang; plus uncle Starmer couldn't see outside for all I know.
  • Just saying he has is an unfortunate run where he has a number of gaffes in short succession. You are very defensive.
    I noticed at PMQs yesterday he fell into the trap of demanding an answer to 'his' question which when Sunak did that previously the Speaker reminded him it is PMs questions !!

    As for 'so what' or 'who cares' or 172 seat majority just indicates an attempt to close down the uncomfortable truth that Starmer's first 100 days has descended into freebies, cronyism and a terrible civil war in no 10 reflecting in approval poll ratings even below Sunak

    Starmer was elected on his undertaking for change and a new way of doing politics, which has disappointed many including myself as I thought he would at least be true to his word but ultimely all he has been is the same as the rest sadly
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    If I can say one thing in favour of Badenoch, I am generally interested in the moment at parties that promise institutional reform and change. I do subscribe to the notion that the way the British state is run is inefficient and does not serve its citizens well. We do need a shakeup (whether from left or right). That is one of the things that attracted me to Starmer Labour (particularly ref housing) because it felt to me like they did get the need to try and rework the system. Now in power, I am not sure that they “get it” as much as I hoped and I fear they’ll be captured by managerialism, but it is early days and these things won’t happen overnight.

    I think Badenoch talks a good game on some of these things. I am far from convinced that she has what it takes to really solve the problems (I think she can perhaps be too good at talking about the issues without knowing what the solutions are), but I do tend to have a soft spot for politicians who at least show a willingness to think outside of the box.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    I noticed at PMQs yesterday he fell into the trap of demanding an answer to 'his' question which when Sunak did that previously the Speaker reminded him it is PMs questions !!

    As for 'so what' or 'who cares' or 172 seat majority just indicates an attempt to close down the uncomfortable truth that Starmer's first 100 days has descended into freebies, cronyism and a terrible civil war in no 10 reflecting in approval poll ratings even below Sunak

    Starmer was elected on his undertaking for change and a new way of doing politics, which has disappointed many including myself as I thought he would at least be true to his word but ultimely all he has been is the same as the rest sadly
    Change the record.
  • Change the record.
    Thats the other one I forgot !!!!!
  • Carnyx said:

    Especially if the chaps in Junkers or SM.79s were dropping both and both were going bang; plus uncle Starmer couldn't see outside for all I know.
    Genuine question, when was the last time a vessel was sunk by a torpedo carried by an aircraft? The concept sounds very quaint nowadays - 'Deploy the Stringbags!"
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,252
    edited October 2024

    Indeed. But mistaking a torpedo for a bomb in a war that took place when you were 20 years of age is hardly likely to do so.
    These errors matter. Remember when Boris ordered 10 million Edvard Munch "scream" masks instead of FF14s?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,682
    Sandpit said:

    Seems to be working for Kamala ;)
    That's a no from you, then.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,616
    edited October 2024
    Selebian said:

    Depending on system type, the expansion vessel is likely shot - with no expansion capacity it will instead be losing water through the pressure relief valve (should be via a copper pipe to the outside of the building, near the boiler) causing you to need to top it up. Expansion vessel replacement or, likely easier, adding an extra, external one will fix if so. On the other hand, your landlord could stop being so tight, buy a new boiler and split the heating bills savings with you to pay for it.

    PlumbingBanter.com :smiley:

    ETA: Or alternatively a subtle leak as JJ mentioned. That could cause a lot of damage depending where it is, but - assuming you've mentioned to landlord - not so much your problem, I guess.
    There are grant schemes for free boiler upgrades if the occupant and the flat meet the criteria.

    They've been on offer since around 2010-11 in various variations.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 958
    The media and John Curtice have more or less ignored the Lib Dems since the election but they are only 49 seats behind the Conservatives.
    They must be jumping for joy over yesterday, probably means they will hold all or virtually their seats
    taken from the Tories in July and gain another 15-20.
    On present form it is quite plausible that the next election will turn out to be a contest between Reform and Lib Dems.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    viewcode said:

    AI summary of LOTO Badenoch's TED talk when 30

    "...The speaker's political journey was driven by anger over educational inequities and the portrayal of Africa in international development. Growing up in Nigeria, they faced high academic expectations, but upon moving to the UK, encountered low expectations from teachers for minority students, which hindered their aspirations to attend Oxford. This led them to focus on engineering while remaining committed to addressing educational disparities.

    The speaker criticized the patronizing attitudes in international development, particularly Western celebrities speaking for Africans without genuine engagement. This frustration motivated their entry into politics to influence Sub-Saharan Africa policy after joining the Conservative Party. Despite initial doubts about the party's elitism, they found opportunities to contribute meaningfully to policy discussions.

    Throughout their journey, the speaker faced skepticism about their political involvement, reflecting broader societal grievances. A personal experience in a Dulwich West campaign highlighted the challenges Conservative candidates face in Labour-dominated areas.

    Key insights include the need to critically evaluate advice, recognizing that well-meaning guidance can hinder progress. The speaker reevaluated personal relationships, identifying true allies as those who prioritize individual goals over political beliefs. They emphasize the importance of engaging with diverse political perspectives and avoiding assumptions about support.

    Ultimately, the speaker advocates for individuals to voice their own experiences, especially in discussions affecting marginalized communities, promoting empowerment and active participation in societal change..."


    Input: YouTube transcript from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1ulBcFCt-E
    Summarizer; https://ahrefs.com/writing-tools/summarizer

    Yes, Kemi's pronouns are so going to be they/ them!

    Superb trolling from the AI bot!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,801
    Leon said:

    Yes. The rumours about Badenoch say she is disliked within Whitehall

    However this may be true of any right wing minister who has a genuinely right wing agenda
    I have read that Substack article in full - I'm afraid I'm very much unconvinced.

    Unless I've muddled my bills, the renters reform bill is a mess, which is in danger of driving down housing supply - I consider it to Jenrick’s credit that he parked it, and to Gove's discredit that he came in and sped it up.

    I'm also not as appalled as perhaps I should be by the fact that he was hated by the Grenfell campaign groups, especially not by the reports that he 'looked uncomfortable' when someone burst into tears on a conference call - who wouldn't look uncomfortable? Again, I think on balance it is to Jenrick’s credit that he understood that promising the earth to a campaign group was not necessarily a wise decision and that the impacts needed to be weighed against the impacts to the housing supply, which was dire then and direr now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,221
    theakes said:

    The media and John Curtice have more or less ignored the Lib Dems since the election but they are only 49 seats behind the Conservatives.
    They must be jumping for joy over yesterday, probably means they will hold all or virtually their seats
    taken from the Tories in July and gain another 15-20.
    On present form it is quite plausible that the next election will turn out to be a contest between Reform and Lib Dems.

    It's very difficult to tell how many seats the Lib Dems are going to get though from national polling !:

    2015 8 seats 7.9%
    2017 12 seats 7.4%
    2019 11 seats 11.6%
    2024 72 seats 12.2%
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668
    Sandpit said:

    It’s a really interesting difference to note between UK and US media, that in the UK the mainstream is right of centre and the alternative (mostly online) is of the left; whereas in the US most of the mainstream is of the left, and the alternative of the right.
    Well, that’s interesting, apart from it being not true. The biggest news network in the US is Fox. The three biggest newspapers are the Wall Street Journal (considered centre right), New York Times (again, to the right, but endorsing Harris) and New York Post (owned by Murdoch, right-wing).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,682

    Genuine question, when was the last time a vessel was sunk by a torpedo carried by an aircraft? The concept sounds very quaint nowadays - 'Deploy the Stringbags!"
    Well RN helicopters did attack the Argentine navy Santa Fe submarine with torpedos (and missed) during the Falklands conflict.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARA_Santa_Fe_(S-21)#Argentine_service
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,616

    Genuine question, when was the last time a vessel was sunk by a torpedo carried by an aircraft? The concept sounds very quaint nowadays - 'Deploy the Stringbags!"
    Surprisingly, it looks as if it was the Hwacheon Dam in the Korean War.

    For a real ship, I'd punt for something Japanese Imperial from summer 1945.

    If there are any since then, it is probably Helicopter vs Submarine.
  • BBC News - Fresh rise in mortgage rates predicted
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93yenv5r74o
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,535
    kyf_100 said:

    My post from yesterday got a bit lost as it was ten minutes before Cleverley got knocked out, but for those who want more background on Jenrick other than the obvious (mural-painting, Desmond-loving) this takedown of Jenrick's time as Housing Secretary by journalist Peter Apps is worth a read -

    https://peteapps.substack.com/p/robert-jenrick-was-the-worst-housing

    In it he describes Jenrick as both callous and uncaring, as well as ineffective, delivering catastrophe after catastrophe during his tenure, delivering plans described as 'unworkable as well as politically unpalatable'. Later, after losing his job, he sought to blame the Treasury for his failures, avoiding any sort of accountability.

    Apps goes on to note that no other housing minister attracted such a personal level of ire, with Brokenshire and Javid there was 'anger with the whole system' but with Jenrick 'it was personal'.

    As someone put it the other day, if you could turn this guy into an aerosol (no snickering at the back, please), you could put him in a can and market him as a literal voter-repellent.

    The Tories elect him at their peril.
    A couple of dozen Tory MPs appear to have no political nous whatsoever. That's probably down from 100+ at the time of Truss. Those who voted for her deserved to lose their seats. But the party in Westminster now seems to be devoid of whatever it was that kept them a political titan on the world stage for a couple of centuries.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Well, that’s interesting, apart from it being not true. The biggest news network in the US is Fox. The three biggest newspapers are the Wall Street Journal (considered centre right), New York Times (again, to the right, but endorsing Harris) and New York Post (owned by Murdoch, right-wing).
    While Fox might be the largest news network, it’s the only one on the right. There’s half a dozen more on the left, which combined are much larger than Fox. The US newspaper industry is much more regional and fragmented than in the UK.

    My thinking was more that when you think of ‘alternative’ media in the UK, you think of Novara, Tortoise etc, whereas in the US you think of Daily Wire, Post Millennial etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010
    theakes said:

    The media and John Curtice have more or less ignored the Lib Dems since the election but they are only 49 seats behind the Conservatives.
    They must be jumping for joy over yesterday, probably means they will hold all or virtually their seats
    taken from the Tories in July and gain another 15-20.
    On present form it is quite plausible that the next election will turn out to be a contest between Reform and Lib Dems.

    I highly doubt it, most centre left voters won't vote LD after the Coalition and Badenoch or Jenrick should at least keep Tory to Reform leakage down even if they lose a few One Nationers to the LDs
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,156
    Pulpstar said:

    It's very difficult to tell how many seats the Lib Dems are going to get though from national polling !:

    2015 8 seats 7.9%
    2017 12 seats 7.4%
    2019 11 seats 11.6%
    2024 72 seats 12.2%
    Isn't it related to the vote share deficit wrt the Tories?
    2010 13.1%
    2015 29.0%
    2017 34.9%
    2019 32.0%
    2024 11.5%
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,682
    MattW said:

    Surprisingly, it looks as if it was the Hwacheon Dam in the Korean War.

    For a real ship, I'd punt for something Japanese Imperial from summer 1945.

    If there are any since then, it is probably Helicopter vs Submarine.
    Note (and this tends to make Starmer's mistake slightly less ridiculous) the Argentine airforce fitted torpedos to their Pucaras, which they intended to use, but never actually did, against the RN task force.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,535
    edited October 2024

    Let the draw commence on the pancake pitch...
    59-5. Hoping to get some credit for the above comment!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Five down, could England really have a go at finishing this off tonight? Only need these two before we’re in to the bowlers.
  • Well, that’s interesting, apart from it being not true. The biggest news network in the US is Fox. The three biggest newspapers are the Wall Street Journal (considered centre right), New York Times (again, to the right, but endorsing Harris) and New York Post (owned by Murdoch, right-wing).
    New York Times is right-wing?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,252
    HYUFD said:

    I highly doubt it, most centre left voters won't vote LD after the Coalition and Badenoch or Jenrick should at least keep Tory to Reform leakage down even if they lose a few One Nationers to the LDs
    I think you are wrong. Why vote for faux fash when the real thing is on offer with Refuk?

    Cleverly was your way out of the wilderness.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010
    kyf_100 said:

    My post from yesterday got a bit lost as it was ten minutes before Cleverley got knocked out, but for those who want more background on Jenrick other than the obvious (mural-painting, Desmond-loving) this takedown of Jenrick's time as Housing Secretary by journalist Peter Apps is worth a read -

    https://peteapps.substack.com/p/robert-jenrick-was-the-worst-housing

    In it he describes Jenrick as both callous and uncaring, as well as ineffective, delivering catastrophe after catastrophe during his tenure, delivering plans described as 'unworkable as well as politically unpalatable'. Later, after losing his job, he sought to blame the Treasury for his failures, avoiding any sort of accountability.

    Apps goes on to note that no other housing minister attracted such a personal level of ire, with Brokenshire and Javid there was 'anger with the whole system' but with Jenrick 'it was personal'.

    As someone put it the other day, if you could turn this guy into an aerosol (no snickering at the back, please), you could put him in a can and market him as a literal voter-repellent.

    The Tories elect him at their peril.
    If anything that suggests Jenrick was too focused on planning reform and building more homes, that may have distracted him a bit from cladding and annoyed Nimbys but was not necessarily a bad policy for the Tories longer term
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,535

    BBC News - Fresh rise in mortgage rates predicted
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93yenv5r74o

    Labour intent on continuing the Truss Interegnum it seems...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668

    Genuine question, when was the last time a vessel was sunk by a torpedo carried by an aircraft? The concept sounds very quaint nowadays - 'Deploy the Stringbags!"
    Possibly 1945! Wikipedia says the last known torpedo bomber attack was in 1950 by US forces, but that was against a dam in Korea, not a ship. There have been torpedo attacks since then, as late as the 2010 sinking of a South Korean ship, but not launched from aircraft.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010
    Cicero said:

    It wasn´t just competence. The alienation of the strivers and achievers from the Tory Party was also because of the poisonous and unpleasant rhetoric spewing out from the wreckage. The C2s went for Reform despite it, the ABs broke for the Lib Dems in precisely the places that hurt the Tories the most, because of it.

    The Conservative Party really is on notice. They look increasingly like losers and weirdos and that is the way they have been acting for quite some time. No party has a right to immortality and taking your core vote for granted is a surefire way to keep losing.

    The wealthy and educated will not support a party that, at best, has ignored them, at worst has attacked them.
    They will not vote Labour either as they tax them ever more and in Tory v Labour marginals the only alternative to Labour is the Tories and they won't vote Reform
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,682

    New York Times is right-wing?
    Its new owner certainly is.
    And half its comment writers (and most of its headline writers...) seem to be.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,221
    edited October 2024

    BBC News - Fresh rise in mortgage rates predicted
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93yenv5r74o

    I've been tracking this and locked in at 3.79% with my current provider (FD) when my 1.59% expired in March as soon as I was eligible. I mean a couple of slightly better offers did become available but I always felt they'd be pulled ASAP when I checked the SONIA and gilt rates.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,088
    Kemi's mad but Bobby J is bad

    What a choice...
  • Nigelb said:

    Well RN helicopters did attack the Argentine navy Santa Fe submarine with torpedos (and missed) during the Falklands conflict.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARA_Santa_Fe_(S-21)#Argentine_service
    If only a perspiration-free Prince Andrew had been at the controls..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010

    I think you are wrong. Why vote for faux fash when the real thing is on offer with Refuk?

    Cleverly was your way out of the wilderness.
    Cleverly was Sunak2
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,156
    Sandpit said:

    Five down, could England really have a go at finishing this off tonight? Only need these two before we’re in to the bowlers.

    The Pakistan number 11, Abrar Ahmed, is in hospital with fever and aches. I guess brought on by heat exhaustion?

    So only nine wickets required today. He might be recovered by tomorrow.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,616
    Carnyx said:

    The same right-wing media who regularly make a hash of reporting WW2? Where every UK and Commonweaslth fighter is a RAF Spitfire? And the same rightwingers who used a photo of, IIRC, Spitfires of 330 (Polish) Sqn RAF to illustrate their propaganda of how awful immigrants were?
    On WW2 nerdism I came across one that I had not previously known much about - a thing called the Red House Meeting, which was allegedly Himmler organising the export of enormous amounts of SS and German industrial wealth at the end of WW2, which was in theory to be brought back later to rebuild a 4th Reich.

    But since Himmler snuffed it the people who had exported it brought it back instead allegedly to feed the economic miracle. With lots of co-operative cover up and interference running from senior figures in the UK & US preventing anyone such as the FBI addressing it.

    It was a Mark Felton, and high-up Allied dodginess is one of his favourite themes. So needs some checking, perhaps, as he likes speculating in such areas - though TBF he will usually say "I am speculating and this is my own interpretation".

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKDI2rxQ-fA
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,221

    Isn't it related to the vote share deficit wrt the Tories?
    2010 13.1%
    2015 29.0%
    2017 34.9%
    2019 32.0%
    2024 11.5%
    Lib Dems could well be sucked into the mucky business of Gov't next election I reckon.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I've been tracking this and locked in at 3.79% with my current provider (FD) when my 1.59% expired in March as soon as I was eligible. I mean a couple of slightly better offers did become available but I always felt they'd be pulled ASAP when I checked the SONIA and gilt rates.
    Looks like Reeves has a serious problem

    https://x.com/GloboGuido/status/1844309671362035812?t=gpFlfv49XST98fX-bP_01Q&s=19
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,252
    ...
    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly was Sunak2
    Please yourself. Kemi and even moreso Honest Bob could be Truss2.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,616
    edited October 2024
    Covered elsewhere.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,221
    edited October 2024

    Looks like Reeves has a serious problem

    https://x.com/GloboGuido/status/1844309671362035812?t=gpFlfv49XST98fX-bP_01Q&s=19
    The SONIA (Sterling Overnight Index Average) seems to be trading at a slight yield discount to gilts over the same maturity period (Anyone know why ?). It looks slightly better for Reeves but I assume will follow gilts north.

    I know he wasn't everyone's cup of tea but Hunt very much had the confidence of the bond markets during his tenure as chancellor.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    The Pakistan number 11, Abrar Ahmed, is in hospital with fever and aches. I guess brought on by heat exhaustion?

    So only nine wickets required today. He might be recovered by tomorrow.
    Ooh, good to know. All the better to get them out today while they’re a man down - but he’ll probably take the drip out and run back to the ground if it looks like he might be needed tonight!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668
    Sandpit said:

    While Fox might be the largest news network, it’s the only one on the right. There’s half a dozen more on the left, which combined are much larger than Fox. The US newspaper industry is much more regional and fragmented than in the UK.

    My thinking was more that when you think of ‘alternative’ media in the UK, you think of Novara, Tortoise etc, whereas in the US you think of Daily Wire, Post Millennial etc.
    Or you can think of GB News in the UK and Daily Kos in the US.

    Here are the top 50 news websites in the US: https://pressgazette.co.uk/media-audience-and-business-data/media_metrics/most-popular-websites-news-us-monthly-3/

    The really interesting thing from that table is the Daily Mail at 9th and the BBC at 14th!
  • ...

    Please yourself. Kemi and even moreso Honest Bob could be Truss2.
    The way the bond markets are going Reeves could have that pleasure though pleasure is not what the electorate will feel
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Looks like Reeves has a serious problem

    https://x.com/GloboGuido/status/1844309671362035812?t=gpFlfv49XST98fX-bP_01Q&s=19
    So any tinkering she tries to do is going to be dwarfed by the increase in debt interest payments, even before the capital fight.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,617

    Labour intent on continuing the Truss Interegnum it seems...
    Still, probably good news for savers.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,617
    edited October 2024
    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly was Sunak2
    I thought that was SKS,

    Cleverly would be Sunak3
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    edited October 2024
    CERN is like a kind of anti-Auschwitz. As anti matter is to matter CERN is to the Nazi extermination camp

    They look similar, lots of low strange buildings with gates and security and chimneys puffing, in Central Europe, but CERN is the BEST of humanity. Perhaps our most extraordinary achievement - experimental particle physics. Dissecting the essence of the universe
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,221
    Sandpit said:

    So any tinkering she tries to do is going to be dwarfed by the increase in debt interest payments, even before the capital fight.
    She needs to be careful, I think the bond yields going up was more to do with the bumper non farm payroll US September numbers which gave global markets an abrupt dose of reality after Powell's bumper sugar rush half point cut.
    Chancellors can't make yields go down here - but they can make them go up if they fuck up *Cough Kwarteng/Truss*
  • Taz said:

    Still, probably good news for savers.
    I understand the much vaunted employee rights bill will go out to consultation in 2025 and will not become law before 2026 at the earliest
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,801

    ...

    Please yourself. Kemi and even moreso Honest Bob could be Truss2.
    Truss 2 but with a united party and waaaaay better political and communications skills will do me just fine thanks.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    At GE 2029 the key issue is whether people want to give Labour another chance. That’s usually the driver of the first GE after a party has won.

    If people broadly want to give Labour another go and the Tories look weird and unreliable, then the LD seats will likely be very sticky.

    If people want Labour out then it’s likely the LDs will lose some seats.

    If option 2 arises though, unless people are flocking to the Tories en masse I wouldn’t expect the LDs to lose as many seats as would be hoped for by the Tories. They are good at putting down incumbency advantages.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,236
    Leon said:

    Having dissed Geneva for 36 hours I can say that CERN is incredible

    I had no idea humans could make antimatter. I mean, I’d probably read that but here you understand that. And grasp it. Also I got to try my first really good virtual reality headset - it takes you down in the collider! - and I saw the original computer where Tim Berners Lee invented the world as it is today. We should demand it back and put it in the British museum

    Even better the whole thing js free - as well as brilliant - so amazingly I still have money for a nice glass of wine at Geneva airport

    What do you mean "back"? I don't suppose that computer has ever left Switzerland, and Elgin Marbles style waltzing off with things to put in the BM is a bit out of fashion these days...
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    As we are seeing with Starmer, it is not so much a x-wing agenda (ha) that is the problem. But having an agenda of change.

    The Blob exists. It is not a conspiracy (much like the NU10K) just a combination of

    1) All large organisations have a Way Things Are Done Here.
    2) People within the organisation have built their careers, promotions, friendships, even beliefs around The Way Things Are Done Here.
    3) This means that any attempt to change The Way Things Are Done Here meets immediate resistance on many fronts.
    In my experience of working life, if someone is disliked in a work context it is usually because they are dislikeable, ie disagreeable in their personal dealings with people. That usually means being underhand or abrasive. Sometimes disagreeable people are good at driving through change because they don't mind upsetting the status quo. More often though they are ineffective because they put people's backs up unnecessarily and can't build coalitions to drive through change. Organisations are frequently full of people desperate to shake them up, the secret is to harness that energy but this is hard if everyone thinks you're a twat.
    I don't know much about Badenoch beyond what I've read in the media but she sounds like someone who puts people's backs up in unproductive ways. She's still a better choice than Jenrick though.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,295

    Looks like Reeves has a serious problem

    https://x.com/GloboGuido/status/1844309671362035812?t=gpFlfv49XST98fX-bP_01Q&s=19
    Most of this, as before, is being driven by global bond yields (stronger US jobs data means fewer rate cuts expected, and all markets correlate to the US to a large extent).

    But UK giltsare underperforming US treasury yields. The expected increase in borrowing (from a high baseline) is impacting, albeit in part because of the uncertainty as to how much more there will be.

    But I don't there's any real risk of a Truss type event.
  • From the BBC.

    Ireland's 492 is currently the highest score made in the first innings of a Test by a team who went on to lose by an innings.

    They made that against Sri Lanka last year but conceded 704-3 declared and were dismissed for 202 in their second innings.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    edited October 2024
    pm215 said:

    What do you mean "back"? I don't suppose that computer has ever left Switzerland, and Elgin Marbles style waltzing off with things to put in the BM is a bit out of fashion these days...
    I mean “BACK to the British Museum” in the “handing BACK to Mauritius” sense, employed by our present government
  • Ratters said:

    Most of this, as before, is being driven by global bond yields (stronger US jobs data means fewer rate cuts expected, and all markets correlate to the US to a large extent).

    But UK giltsare underperforming US treasury yields. The expected increase in borrowing (from a high baseline) is impacting, albeit in part because of the uncertainty as to how much more there will be.

    But I don't there's any real risk of a Truss type event.
    I sincerely hope not for everyone's sake
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Thats the other one I forgot !!!!!
    Who are you voting for in the Tory leadership contest?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,156

    From the BBC.

    Ireland's 492 is currently the highest score made in the first innings of a Test by a team who went on to lose by an innings.

    They made that against Sri Lanka last year but conceded 704-3 declared and were dismissed for 202 in their second innings.

    Would be typical of England to take a record away from Ireland, but uncharacteristic in the way they're looking to do it this time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,682
    Ratters said:

    Most of this, as before, is being driven by global bond yields (stronger US jobs data means fewer rate cuts expected, and all markets correlate to the US to a large extent).

    But UK giltsare underperforming US treasury yields. The expected increase in borrowing (from a high baseline) is impacting, albeit in part because of the uncertainty as to how much more there will be.

    But I don't there's any real risk of a Truss type event.
    Damn.
    It's going to happen now, isn't it ?
  • Who are you voting for in the Tory leadership contest?
    I am not a member
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,682
    Good luck with that.

    Applications are open to recruit a Chair of the new Regulatory Innovation Office.

    RIO will reduce red tape and speed up access to new technologies that improve our daily lives.

    We're looking for an ambitious leader to shape a regulatory environment that is fit for the future.

    https://x.com/SciTechgovuk/status/1844289287929593893
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668

    ...

    Please yourself. Kemi and even moreso Honest Bob could be Truss2.
    Isn’t Kemi Truss2 and Bob Johnson2?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,184

    In my experience of working life, if someone is disliked in a work context it is usually because they are dislikeable, ie disagreeable in their personal dealings with people. That usually means being underhand or abrasive. Sometimes disagreeable people are good at driving through change because they don't mind upsetting the status quo. More often though they are ineffective because they put people's backs up unnecessarily and can't build coalitions to drive through change. Organisations are frequently full of people desperate to shake them up, the secret is to harness that energy but this is hard if everyone thinks you're a twat.
    I don't know much about Badenoch beyond what I've read in the media but she sounds like someone who puts people's backs up in unproductive ways. She's still a better choice than Jenrick though.
    I knew a chap who was utterly hated in a bank.

    That was because he was head of Risk after 2008. So his smashed everyone's rice bowl to impose a sane & legal reporting and monitoring system for risk.

    He had the board and pretty much no-one else.

    Got it done.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, good to know. All the better to get them out today while they’re a man down - but he’ll probably take the drip out and run back to the ground if it looks like he might be needed tonight!
    I'm not so sure, what's the point if they are likely to lose anyway?
  • 82 for 6
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,257
    Nigelb said:

    Anagram action ?
    Hot Leon on Elon on Noel on Olen on Leno action! See them do "The Snake"! Gaze at their writhing lardy pasty flesh in awe! Gawp at the oozing! Hear them cry "Is it in yet?"
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited October 2024
    Nigelb said:

    Good luck with that.

    Applications are open to recruit a Chair of the new Regulatory Innovation Office.

    RIO will reduce red tape and speed up access to new technologies that improve our daily lives.

    We're looking for an ambitious leader to shape a regulatory environment that is fit for the future.

    https://x.com/SciTechgovuk/status/1844289287929593893

    Are they going to hire a James Dyson or Jim Radcliffe, or are they looking for someone with at least four decades of public sector experience looking for the Sir or Dame to which they believe they’re entitled?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010
    edited October 2024

    ...

    Please yourself. Kemi and even moreso Honest Bob could be Truss2.
    They couldn't because they are in opposition. Truss as opposition leader could have been more effective but going straight in as PM she was too dramatic for the markets without a mandate from the voters which Badenoch or Jenrick would have to have got to implement their plans
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,221

    I'm not so sure, what's the point if they are likely to lose anyway?
    Yeah if they're done for this evening no way the number 11 gets back. The chances of the final wicket partnership surviving 90 overs tommorow is for all intents and purposes nil.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,184
    Sandpit said:

    Are they going to hire a James Dyson or Jim Radcliffe, or are they looking for someone with at least four decades of public sector experience looking for the Sir or Dame?
    A safe pair of hands. With no ugly technical knowledge that would cause them to focus too much on details.

    I look forward to my public/private partnership in growing ground nuts in Africa to create biofuel.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,954
    HYUFD said:

    If anything that suggests Jenrick was too focused on planning reform and building more homes, that may have distracted him a bit from cladding and annoyed Nimbys but was not necessarily a bad policy for the Tories longer term
    I mean, that's a rather interesting spin on an utterly devastating article.

    Cladding was literally _the_ immediate issue of the post-Grenfell years, with hundreds of thousands of people directly affected, being trapped in unsaleable potential death trap flats, paying a small fortune in 'waking watch' costs, _and_ expected to foot the bill for developers who sold them the shoddy death traps in the first place. 'Caveat emptor' was literally Jenrick's reply.

    The article notes Jenrick's utter lack of empathy - "When one of them burst into tears, Jenrick simply looked astonished and uncomfortable. No warm words of sympathy, no heartfelt expression of a desire to put things right. Just a blank stare at the webcam and a hope that it would stop."

    Saying Jenrick was more concerned with planning reform (notably, reforms "popular with developers") ignores the thrust of that article, which describes "What he delivered was an almost immediate catastrophe," " taking a quick, hopeful punt, closing your ears to warnings that it could go wrong and assuming everything will be fine." "His next effort... went down like a bucket of cold sick" ..."a betrayal" etc.

    It's his attitude that's the problem. Over the course of his tenure, he "alienated" and "angered" people with his "bullish, defensive attitude", leading to a personal ire from voters that wasn't there with his predecessors Brokenshire and Javid, or his successor, Gove.

    And therein lies the problem. Jenrick proved himself to be not only incompetent and venal, but lacking in empathy and more interested in listening to developers and vested interests than in ordinary voters.

    What you want in a party leader and potential prime minister is someone who combines popularity, empathy and competence, in a way that voters warm to.

    There is every evidence from his time as Housing Secretary that Jenrick is the polar opposite.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,257
    Sandpit said:

    Seems to be working for Kamala ;)
    Although you meant it sarcastically, it's a good point. As Davey showed, and Kamala may yet show, "vibes" election works. Faced with a snaggle-mouthed SKS and Ed and his bonfire of cash, it may prevail.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    I am not a member
    Who are you supporting?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,257
    Nigelb said:

    Good luck with that.

    Applications are open to recruit a Chair of the new Regulatory Innovation Office.

    RIO will reduce red tape and speed up access to new technologies that improve our daily lives.

    We're looking for an ambitious leader to shape a regulatory environment that is fit for the future.

    https://x.com/SciTechgovuk/status/1844289287929593893

    Curing bureaucracy with bureaucracy. See my article on the Blob https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/09/28/the-blob/
  • Who are you supporting?
    Badenoch as I have always been very anti Jenrick
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,413

    The Pakistan number 11, Abrar Ahmed, is in hospital with fever and aches. I guess brought on by heat exhaustion?

    So only nine wickets required today. He might be recovered by tomorrow.
    Does anyone know the highest-scoring test match that wasn't a draw? (Not a quiz question, I don't know and am interested.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,682
    viewcode said:

    Curing bureaucracy with bureaucracy. See my article on the Blob https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/09/28/the-blob/
    I had it in mind when I posted.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,221
    AnneJGP said:

    Does anyone know the highest-scoring test match that wasn't a draw? (Not a quiz question, I don't know and am interested.)
    It's this one.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,252

    82 for 6

    Pounds for dollars after the budget?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    Looks like Reeves has a serious problem

    https://x.com/GloboGuido/status/1844309671362035812?t=gpFlfv49XST98fX-bP_01Q&s=19
    Gilt yields tend to move along with yields on US Treasuries. Since mid-September yields on 10 year gilts have risen by 48bp while those on 10 year Treasuries have risen 47bp. A lot of the commentary on this is a bit parochial.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited October 2024

    A safe pair of hands. With no ugly technical knowledge that would cause them to focus too much on details.

    I look forward to my public/private partnership in growing ground nuts in Africa to create biofuel.
    I'm surprised the previous, late unlamented administration didn't think to bolt that onto (so to speak) the Rwanda scheme. Instant 1950s vibes, what's not to like?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771
    kyf_100 said:

    I mean, that's a rather interesting spin on an utterly devastating article.

    Cladding was literally _the_ immediate issue of the post-Grenfell years, with hundreds of thousands of people directly affected, being trapped in unsaleable potential death trap flats, paying a small fortune in 'waking watch' costs, _and_ expected to foot the bill for developers who sold them the shoddy death traps in the first place. 'Caveat emptor' was literally Jenrick's reply.

    The article notes Jenrick's utter lack of empathy - "When one of them burst into tears, Jenrick simply looked astonished and uncomfortable. No warm words of sympathy, no heartfelt expression of a desire to put things right. Just a blank stare at the webcam and a hope that it would stop."

    Saying Jenrick was more concerned with planning reform (notably, reforms "popular with developers") ignores the thrust of that article, which describes "What he delivered was an almost immediate catastrophe," " taking a quick, hopeful punt, closing your ears to warnings that it could go wrong and assuming everything will be fine." "His next effort... went down like a bucket of cold sick" ..."a betrayal" etc.

    It's his attitude that's the problem. Over the course of his tenure, he "alienated" and "angered" people with his "bullish, defensive attitude", leading to a personal ire from voters that wasn't there with his predecessors Brokenshire and Javid, or his successor, Gove.

    And therein lies the problem. Jenrick proved himself to be not only incompetent and venal, but lacking in empathy and more interested in listening to developers and vested interests than in ordinary voters.

    What you want in a party leader and potential prime minister is someone who combines popularity, empathy and competence, in a way that voters warm to.

    There is every evidence from his time as Housing Secretary that Jenrick is the polar opposite.
    I am not sure who I would vote for. They both seem like very poor candidates.

    Even if I were still a Tory member, I think I would hope that neither would ever be prime minister - their faults would seem to make them particularly ill-suited to that role. (Jenrick's aggression and lack of intellect, Badenoch's inability to get the brain=>mouth ordering correct).

    On balance, Badenoch would seem like the least-worst-option. Even if that is disastrous for my betting.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited October 2024
    AnneJGP said:

    Does anyone know the highest-scoring test match that wasn't a draw? (Not a quiz question, I don't know and am interested.)
    This one, two years ago, England v Pakistan.

    England won.

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/england-in-pakistan-2022-23-1330866/pakistan-vs-england-1st-test-1330871/full-scorecard

    It’s 3rd on the list of cricket match aggregate run records: https://www.espncricinfo.com/records/highest-match-aggregates-284002
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,682
    viewcode said:

    Although you meant it sarcastically, it's a good point. As Davey showed, and Kamala may yet show, "vibes" election works. Faced with a snaggle-mouthed SKS and Ed and his bonfire of cash, it may prevail.
    Well it might. Or might not.

    But that's hardly germane to the discussion (initiated by the Badenoch fans) about how she'd been 'frustrated' by the Civil Service.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,790

    I knew a chap who was utterly hated in a bank.

    That was because he was head of Risk after 2008. So his smashed everyone's rice bowl to impose a sane & legal reporting and monitoring system for risk.

    He had the board and pretty much no-one else.

    Got it done.
    Pre 08 would have been nice though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    How did humans get smart enough to detect and use muons?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited October 2024
    Leon said:

    I mean “BACK to the British Museum” in the “handing BACK to Mauritius” sense, employed by our present government
    You'd need to rip out all the wiring from the walls and floors. Network, not individual console, remember.

    Plus it was never a British-owned computer network, though, but a European one. CERN, the clue is in the name.
This discussion has been closed.