At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:
I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election
So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
You are making the mistake of thinking about Reform as a classic political party
They aren’t - they are simply an inchoate cry of rage channelled by one person.
Without Farage it all dissipates. I’m not sure that I’ve seen them doing the work to become a serious party
You haven't really been looking then. Their most recent law and order press conference, they've sent a letter to Yvette Cooper to demand she expedites the prosecution of the Manchester Airport attackers, who are currently wandering the streets unencumbered, and threatening a private prosecution if she doesn't. That's good policy and good politics.
Nah that’s standard stuff.
It’s the hard yards of organisation and structure that will determine whether they flourish long term or not. They may do - but I suspect they fizzle out when Farage decides he’s had enough (and at some point he will be old news - don’t forget that he’s been in the front line for 20(?) years now
Are you aware of Zia Yusuf? If so what do you think - I'm very impressed.
He reminds me of the baddie in Crocodile Dundee 2.
Anyone knowledgeable about Italian business who can say of this is true ?
When I tell this story, all Americans 🇺🇸 and most British 🇬🇧 don’t believe me. Italy 🇮🇹 cannot have startups by design. This is due many items, starting with the untranslable “studio di settore”. The 🇮🇹 tax authorities assume that given x company assets you MUST make a profit 1/5.. https://x.com/aledeniz/status/1842872753499607407
If so, for heaven's sake don't tell Starmer, or this could be us in a couple of years...
Until recently, starting a limited liability company in Germany required putting up €25000 in escrow so that any unpaid invoices would be covered when the company closed. Don't have €25000? Go get a job and save.
Thankfully, that has changed.
One of the things the Tax Gap loonies were advocating was minimum profit tax.
That is, start a business, you pay at least x tax. Because all businesses make money from day one.
That sounds more or less the Italian system, as described by that thread. Terrifying.
Anyone knowledgeable about Italian business who can say of this is true ?
When I tell this story, all Americans 🇺🇸 and most British 🇬🇧 don’t believe me. Italy 🇮🇹 cannot have startups by design. This is due many items, starting with the untranslable “studio di settore”. The 🇮🇹 tax authorities assume that given x company assets you MUST make a profit 1/5.. https://x.com/aledeniz/status/1842872753499607407
If so, for heaven's sake don't tell Starmer, or this could be us in a couple of years...
Until recently, starting a limited liability company in Germany required putting up €25000 in escrow so that any unpaid invoices would be covered when the company closed. Don't have €25000? Go get a job and save.
Thankfully, that has changed.
One of the things the Tax Gap loonies were advocating was minimum profit tax.
That is, start a business, you pay at least x tax. Because all businesses make money from day one.
A lot of people don't really grasp what making a loss means. They think it's making less profit. "Why can't supermarkets cut prices by 20% to help people out? Ok, they'd make a little less profit but...."
Yeah on (very) low single digit net margins 20% ain't happening (on all lines) although there will be some loss leaders. They say the entire Aldi wine selection is solely to tempt middle class types in who might buy some Heitz Ketchup while they're there.
Cleverly seems the obviously least bad option for the Tories.
I think he's a bit lazy and ineffective but he's a nice guy, fairly sensible and has a sense of humour so, for those reasons alone, if he makes the final two I'll probably vote for him.
Doubt he'll change the world though.
Yeah that seems right but for all the reasons you cite he seems like their best bet. I can't see the public taking to Jenrick, who just comes over like a bit of a bad egg. Badenoch is too abrasive and needs to grow up a bit I think. Tugendhat just seems a bit wet and I think would have to spend his whole time trying to act like he's more right wing than he is, undermining his authenticity. Cleverly is a bit meh but seems normal. Won't set the world on fire but is a safe pair of hands and could be well placed if Labour can't turn things around by 2029.
Agreed. Cleverly is clearly the sensible, moderate choice. It would seem out of character for the Tories to make such a wise selection, but who knows, perhaps they have learned their lessons after the TRUSS and BORIS fiascos?
Cleverly seems the obviously least bad option for the Tories.
Tugendhat is the obvious option. He performed well as Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee. I don’t think any of the other three can point to something they were a comparable success at.
I like Tom and think he would, in an ideal world, have done fine as leader, and reassured a lot of Home Counties type Tory switchers that it was safe to come back home. BUT he mucked things up with a David Davis type dull speech and by trying to square the circle rather than take a risk, and tell the party a few home truths. Counter-intuitively, that might have worked. But he's now first out for sure. Shame, but hopefully he'll be prominent in the shadow cabinet.
Anyone knowledgeable about Italian business who can say of this is true ?
When I tell this story, all Americans 🇺🇸 and most British 🇬🇧 don’t believe me. Italy 🇮🇹 cannot have startups by design. This is due many items, starting with the untranslable “studio di settore”. The 🇮🇹 tax authorities assume that given x company assets you MUST make a profit 1/5.. https://x.com/aledeniz/status/1842872753499607407
If so, for heaven's sake don't tell Starmer, or this could be us in a couple of years...
Until recently, starting a limited liability company in Germany required putting up €25000 in escrow so that any unpaid invoices would be covered when the company closed. Don't have €25000? Go get a job and save.
Thankfully, that has changed.
But in Britain, you don't need to prove you do business at an address to register that address for VAT. Some guy in Cardiff got tax bills for thousands of Chinese firms. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-65205520
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
In exciting weather / POTUS October surprise news, Hurricane Milton has just rapidly deepened at the fastest rate I’ve ever seen. Down 50mb in just 7 hours and a category 5.
Last aircraft recon measured flight level winds of 165kt.
Hurricane Milton is heading for a direct hit on Tampa Bay.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments are seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
Anyone knowledgeable about Italian business who can say of this is true ?
When I tell this story, all Americans 🇺🇸 and most British 🇬🇧 don’t believe me. Italy 🇮🇹 cannot have startups by design. This is due many items, starting with the untranslable “studio di settore”. The 🇮🇹 tax authorities assume that given x company assets you MUST make a profit 1/5.. https://x.com/aledeniz/status/1842872753499607407
If so, for heaven's sake don't tell Starmer, or this could be us in a couple of years...
Until recently, starting a limited liability company in Germany required putting up €25000 in escrow so that any unpaid invoices would be covered when the company closed. Don't have €25000? Go get a job and save.
Thankfully, that has changed.
But in Britain, you don't need to prove you do business at an address to register that address for VAT. Some guy in Cardiff got tax bills for thousands of Chinese firms. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-65205520
Some crook once registered my address for his business, presumably at random. I got some mail from his irate creditors and one of them came all the way from Germany to doorstep him. Weird experience, though luckily nothing bad came of it - not for me anyway.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
I see you all got there before me.
This hurricane is quite something. Almost opposite to Helene, which was a huge lumbering beast that took ages to spin up and spin down. This is a small vicious one with a pinhole eye and able to intensify very quickly but - as forecast - likely lose intensity equally quickly when hit by shear before landfall.
Perhaps it is the latest YouGov national poll showing them level? But TIPP, also today, shows Kamala 3% ahead nationally. And Activote, also today, shows Kamala 2% ahead in North Carolina.
Only 4% of likely voters have not yet decided who to vote for. Of the decideds (inc already voted) Harris leads by 52 to 47. Trump leads with men by 5 pts. Harris leads with women by 15 pts. Harris leads by 5 with cat owners. With dog owners it's a tie. Trump has a big lead on immigration but not on the economy where she edges it. She leads on most other issues.
And here's one that surprised me. When asked what's the main driver of their vote only 8% picked "disgust with the other candidate" (10% of Harris voters and 5% of Trump's).
Perhaps people aren't keen to admit voting for negative reasons. Or perhaps things are not quite as bitter and riven as we keep hearing.
Yes - that's the ResearchCo poll. The other poll today is YouGov showing them level. But Activote shows Harris 2% ahead in N Carolina, which is good.
All to play for.
I wonder if the polls are distorted by some wives of MAGA men unwilling to disclose their intention to vote for Kamala to pollsters? Or am I clutching at straws?
That's not a thing I'm putting much store by tbh. Overall, it's closer than I'd like 4 weeks out but she is 2 or 3 pts ahead on the averages, looks good for MI and WI, bang there for PA, NV, NC, and competitive in GA and AZ.
Trump has the harder path. He has to flip the Sunbelt states to take it to the Rustbelt and then needs PA. She can do an either/or and if she flips NC she probably doesn't need PA. Close, yes, but I'd have taken this back in the summer when it was still Biden and Trump was looking nailed on.
Quite apart from the horrible mistake, does he ever give over going on about his background? He was probably being asked what he thought about the evolving threat of China when he said this.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments are seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
Well Trump has spent a week lying about it. The propaganda still being spread is quite remarkable.
And this from a guy who denied the state federal relief for a hurricane when he was President, and wants to defund FEMA.
Quite apart from the horrible mistake, does he ever give over going on about his background? He was probably being asked what he thought about the evolving threat of China when he said this.
At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:
I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election
So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
You are making the mistake of thinking about Reform as a classic political party
They aren’t - they are simply an inchoate cry of rage channelled by one person.
Without Farage it all dissipates. I’m not sure that I’ve seen them doing the work to become a serious party
You haven't really been looking then. Their most recent law and order press conference, they've sent a letter to Yvette Cooper to demand she expedites the prosecution of the Manchester Airport attackers, who are currently wandering the streets unencumbered, and threatening a private prosecution if she doesn't. That's good policy and good politics.
Nah that’s standard stuff.
It’s the hard yards of organisation and structure that will determine whether they flourish long term or not. They may do - but I suspect they fizzle out when Farage decides he’s had enough (and at some point he will be old news - don’t forget that he’s been in the front line for 20(?) years now
The UK's political system, with small(-ish) constituencies and First Past The Post incentivizes good local organization and councillor-bases.
The LibDems only became successful at capturing a whole bunch of seats after they established themselves in local government. I think you could make the case that the Greens are following a similar path.
Can Reform do it without local presence and councillors and the like?
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments are seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
Well Trump has spent a week lying about it. The propaganda still being spread is quite remarkable.
And this from a guy who denied the state federal relief for a hurricane when he was President, and wants to defund FEMA.
That FEMA have said they don’t have enough money to last the hurricane season, is from their own director.
That FEMA have spent half a billion dollars on housing illegal immigrants is from their own press releases.
Trump turned up for several days in the region, bringing with him lorry loads of water, fuel, and essential supplies.
Biden said that everyone has everything they need.
Harris turned up for 10 minutes and made a joke or two about FEMA being awesome in the eyes of the victims.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
"This latest fall means that for the first time in our tracker Rishi Sunak (narrowly) has a higher net approval rating than Keir Starmer. His net approval sits at -32 points compared to Keir Starmer at -33 points."
In which case we may as well keep Rishi if Cleverly wins as he is basically Rishi 2 in terms of policy just slightly more affable but with less charisma and brains
What.
Cleverly has less charisma than Sunak?
I mean, I get the dull managerialism criticism. But surely he can't have less charisma than the charisma-free Sunak?
Now that we have several months experience of SKS, hindsight does not show Rishi Sunak as charisma-free. On the contrary, Rishi now appears quite charming.
And the polls agree. Starmer is now less popular than massively-unpopular Sunak, and Starmer's polling is in free-fall and Sunak's is stable (albeit bad)
I don't believe this "relaunch" will help Starmer. You can't relaunch a dud
A "relaunch" three months after winning a landslide at a general election is a prima facie absurdity...
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments are seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
Well Trump has spent a week lying about it. The propaganda still being spread is quite remarkable.
And this from a guy who denied the state federal relief for a hurricane when he was President, and wants to defund FEMA.
That FEMA have said they don’t have enough money to last the hurricane season, is from their own director.
That FEMA have spent half a billion dollars on housing illegal immigrants is from their own press releases.
Trump turned up for several days in the region, bringing with him lorry loads of water, fuel, and essential supplies.
Biden said that everyone has everything they need.
Harris turned up for 10 minutes and made a joke or two about FEMA being awesome in the eyes of the victims.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments are seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
There's been a huge amount of disinformation on t'net about what the Feds were supposed to have done after Helene.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Cleverly feels like a sensible appointment for an earlier age. Looks good on telly, sounds good on radio, gravity from holding the big briefs. Look like a PM and you shall become one young man, especially with the current lot imploding.
But I’m not at all clear what his strategy would be to counter the social media engine of Reform. And without a winning plan for that, his vote stays split.
Next election might be super weird. Lib Dems more or less retain vote share but lose seats to the Tories. Reform overtake labour in a few dozen constituencies, mix of labour and Tory seats. Which probably translates to a Labour minority govt, perhaps with a sub 30% share? Or a Tory / Reform coalition?
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments are seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
Well Trump has spent a week lying about it. The propaganda still being spread is quite remarkable.
And this from a guy who denied the state federal relief for a hurricane when he was President, and wants to defund FEMA.
That FEMA have said they don’t have enough money to last the hurricane season, is from their own director.
That FEMA have spent half a billion dollars on housing illegal immigrants is from their own press releases.
Trump turned up for several days in the region, bringing with him lorry loads of water, fuel, and essential supplies.
Biden said that everyone has everything they need.
Harris turned up for 10 minutes and made a joke or two about FEMA being awesome in the eyes of the victims.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says hurricane is steered by "them".
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Hurricanes aren't freak weather events. There's an annual hurricane season in which they predictably occur. Meteorologists have a good handle on the conditions that make Hurricanes more likely and more powerful, one of which is sea temperature, which is going up due to the extra carbon dioxide released by burning fossil fuels.
Today, in our latest edition of this tracker, our Presidential Voting Intention poll of 18,875 swing state voters finds Kamala Harris ahead in five out of nine potential swing states. Donald Trump leads in three states, while the candidates are tied in Georgia.
Compared to our last swing state voting intention poll, Harris now leads Trump by a single point in three states which were previously tied: Nevada (48% to 47%), Pennsylvania (48% to 47%), and Wisconsin (47% to 46%). Trump leads in Arizona (48% to 47%), Florida (49% to 45%), and North Carolina (47% to 45%), but has lost his lead in Georgia, where both candidates are tied on 47%. Meanwhile, Harris extends her leads in Michigan (48% to 46%) and Minnesota (51% to 43%).
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says hurricane is steered by "them".
Cleverly feels like a sensible appointment for an earlier age. Looks good on telly, sounds good on radio, gravity from holding the big briefs. Look like a PM and you shall become one young man, especially with the current lot imploding.
But I’m not at all clear what his strategy would be to counter the social media engine of Reform. And without a winning plan for that, his vote stays split.
Next election might be super weird. Lib Dems more or less retain vote share but lose seats to the Tories. Reform overtake labour in a few dozen constituencies, mix of labour and Tory seats. Which probably translates to a Labour minority govt, perhaps with a sub 30% share? Or a Tory / Reform coalition?
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
One event is random, two is a coincidence, three is a trend. That's what people will think as the third hurricane comes blasting in. Some may blame angry gods. Others may think -perhaps we should be doing something about the changing climate.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Hurricanes aren't freak weather events. There's an annual hurricane season in which they predictably occur. Meteorologists have a good handle on the conditions that make Hurricanes more likely and more powerful, one of which is sea temperature, which is going up due to the extra carbon dioxide released by burning fossil fuels.
It isn't complicated.
Sea temperatures are going up because of the ban on ships emitting sulphur, which significantly changed the atmosphere.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says hurricane is steered by "them".
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says hurricane is steered by "them".
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments are seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
Well Trump has spent a week lying about it. The propaganda still being spread is quite remarkable.
And this from a guy who denied the state federal relief for a hurricane when he was President, and wants to defund FEMA.
That FEMA have said they don’t have enough money to last the hurricane season, is from their own director.
That FEMA have spent half a billion dollars on housing illegal immigrants is from their own press releases.
Trump turned up for several days in the region, bringing with him lorry loads of water, fuel, and essential supplies.
Biden said that everyone has everything they need.
Harris turned up for 10 minutes and made a joke or two about FEMA being awesome in the eyes of the victims.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments are seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
There's been a huge amount of disinformation on t'net about what the Feds were supposed to have done after Helene.
There seem to be very few pictures of anyone from the Federal government actually providing assistance to the victims of the floods, and very few mainstream journalists there on the ground reporting on it.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Hurricanes aren't freak weather events. There's an annual hurricane season in which they predictably occur. Meteorologists have a good handle on the conditions that make Hurricanes more likely and more powerful, one of which is sea temperature, which is going up due to the extra carbon dioxide released by burning fossil fuels.
It isn't complicated.
Every heat engine depends on a source (sea temperature) and, importantly, a sink (the upper atmosphere).
It does also depend on what happens to the sink whether hurricanes will get worse or not - even if the sea does gets warmer.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says hurricane is steered by "them".
At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:
I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election
So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
You are making the mistake of thinking about Reform as a classic political party
They aren’t - they are simply an inchoate cry of rage channelled by one person.
Without Farage it all dissipates. I’m not sure that I’ve seen them doing the work to become a serious party
You haven't really been looking then. Their most recent law and order press conference, they've sent a letter to Yvette Cooper to demand she expedites the prosecution of the Manchester Airport attackers, who are currently wandering the streets unencumbered, and threatening a private prosecution if she doesn't. That's good policy and good politics.
Nah that’s standard stuff.
It’s the hard yards of organisation and structure that will determine whether they flourish long term or not. They may do - but I suspect they fizzle out when Farage decides he’s had enough (and at some point he will be old news - don’t forget that he’s been in the front line for 20(?) years now
The UK's political system, with small(-ish) constituencies and First Past The Post incentivizes good local organization and councillor-bases.
The LibDems only became successful at capturing a whole bunch of seats after they established themselves in local government. I think you could make the case that the Greens are following a similar path.
Can Reform do it without local presence and councillors and the like?
Probably not, but winning any seats without hard local grinding was an impressive accomplishment, so it's not beyond the realm of possibility to do things in reverse order.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Hurricanes aren't freak weather events. There's an annual hurricane season in which they predictably occur. Meteorologists have a good handle on the conditions that make Hurricanes more likely and more powerful, one of which is sea temperature, which is going up due to the extra carbon dioxide released by burning fossil fuels.
It isn't complicated.
Sea temperatures are going up because of the ban on ships emitting sulphur, which significantly changed the atmosphere.
The sulphate pollution did cause cooling, which reduced the warming that was happening due to carbon dioxide. So there would be a rebound when the cooling was removed, yes.
But to cancel out the warning from carbon dioxide you'd have to emit more sulphate every year, which was never going to happen.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Hurricanes aren't freak weather events. There's an annual hurricane season in which they predictably occur. Meteorologists have a good handle on the conditions that make Hurricanes more likely and more powerful, one of which is sea temperature, which is going up due to the extra carbon dioxide released by burning fossil fuels.
It isn't complicated.
Sea temperatures are going up because of the ban on ships emitting sulphur, which significantly changed the atmosphere.
Slick pivot bro - from "just weather" to "awsktucally, it's a different kind of climate change".
The climate modelling suggests that weather events like hurricanes will increase in severity and frequency. Of course, compared with last week they will always be "weather", even if they come once a month and kills thousands each time.
Being generous I will ask if there was something else at the time which his brain is confusing with tax credits? As it is very careless to make disprovable claims based on people assuming the past was just like today.
Like if someone wrote a historical novel assuming they had WiFi in the 12th century or something.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments are seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
There's been a huge amount of disinformation on t'net about what the Feds were supposed to have done after Helene.
There seem to be very few pictures of anyone from the Federal government actually providing assistance to the victims of the floods, and very few mainstream journalists there on the ground reporting on it.
I wonder why?
Very few journalists reporting in from Mariupol or Gaza either.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Preposterous to put down science to "freak" events.
We know what causes earth quakes and what causes hurricanes, via the medium of science. No reliance upon gods or "freaks" necessary.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says hurricane is steered by "them".
Perhaps it is the latest YouGov national poll showing them level? But TIPP, also today, shows Kamala 3% ahead nationally. And Activote, also today, shows Kamala 2% ahead in North Carolina.
Only 4% of likely voters have not yet decided who to vote for. Of the decideds (inc already voted) Harris leads by 52 to 47. Trump leads with men by 5 pts. Harris leads with women by 15 pts. Harris leads by 5 with cat owners. With dog owners it's a tie. Trump has a big lead on immigration but not on the economy where she edges it. She leads on most other issues.
And here's one that surprised me. When asked what's the main driver of their vote only 8% picked "disgust with the other candidate" (10% of Harris voters and 5% of Trump's).
Perhaps people aren't keen to admit voting for negative reasons. Or perhaps things are not quite as bitter and riven as we keep hearing.
Yes - that's the ResearchCo poll. The other poll today is YouGov showing them level. But Activote shows Harris 2% ahead in N Carolina, which is good.
All to play for.
I wonder if the polls are distorted by some wives of MAGA men unwilling to disclose their intention to vote for Kamala to pollsters? Or am I clutching at straws?
That's not a thing I'm putting much store by tbh. Overall, it's closer than I'd like 4 weeks out but she is 2 or 3 pts ahead on the averages, looks good for MI and WI, bang there for PA, NV, NC, and competitive in GA and AZ.
Trump has the harder path. He has to flip the Sunbelt states to take it to the Rustbelt and then needs PA. She can do an either/or and if she flips NC she probably doesn't need PA. Close, yes, but I'd have taken this back in the summer when it was still Biden and Trump was looking nailed on.
I still think she'll win comfortably fwiw.
Will winning be enough? Ridiculous it needs asking in a longstanding democracy.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments are seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
There's been a huge amount of disinformation on t'net about what the Feds were supposed to have done after Helene.
There seem to be very few pictures of anyone from the Federal government actually providing assistance to the victims of the floods, and very few mainstream journalists there on the ground reporting on it.
There are AI generated ones that are bullshit though:
Cleverly's strategy I think would be to hold the fort, sound sensible, not alienate anyone and do nothing rash while he waits for Starmer, Farage, and eventually the Lib Dems, to crumble into dust. It's not a bad strategy for a fractious party with few good options, but I doubt those taking part in the selection would find it particularly compelling.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Hurricanes aren't freak weather events. There's an annual hurricane season in which they predictably occur. Meteorologists have a good handle on the conditions that make Hurricanes more likely and more powerful, one of which is sea temperature, which is going up due to the extra carbon dioxide released by burning fossil fuels.
It isn't complicated.
Sea temperatures are going up because of the ban on ships emitting sulphur, which significantly changed the atmosphere.
The sulphate pollution did cause cooling, which reduced the warming that was happening due to carbon dioxide. So there would be a rebound when the cooling was removed, yes.
Yes it’s a very weird unintended consequence, that’s actually resulted in a significant change in the climate.
What could have been done differerently, on the other hand, is a much more difficult question. Clearly the sulphur emissions were not good for the immediate environment at low level, but the banning of them has had a noticable effect on sea temperatures.
Cleverly seems the obviously least bad option for the Tories.
I think he's a bit lazy and ineffective but he's a nice guy, fairly sensible and has a sense of humour so, for those reasons alone, if he makes the final two I'll probably vote for him.
Doubt he'll change the world though.
Yeah that seems right but for all the reasons you cite he seems like their best bet. I can't see the public taking to Jenrick, who just comes over like a bit of a bad egg. Badenoch is too abrasive and needs to grow up a bit I think. Tugendhat just seems a bit wet and I think would have to spend his whole time trying to act like he's more right wing than he is, undermining his authenticity. Cleverly is a bit meh but seems normal. Won't set the world on fire but is a safe pair of hands and could be well placed if Labour can't turn things around by 2029.
Agreed. Cleverly is clearly the sensible, moderate choice. It would seem out of character for the Tories to make such a wise selection, but who knows, perhaps they have learned their lessons after the TRUSS and BORIS fiascos?
Is the sensible moderate choice actually the right move at this time? Serious question. Does it store up some arguments and do they need to take a bigger risk?
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
It's about the frequency of outlier weather events not the existence of them.
On the NI School Bus crash, the regulation are safety belts are complex afaics. Different depending on the age of the bus wrt fitting, and I have no idea whether there is any requirement ensure that they are worn.
Also on a safety note, corporate exploitation of the Individual Vehicle Approval process is probably about to bring a *lot* more Dodge Ram monster pickups onto our roads, which do not meet USA safety regs for most vehicles aiui, never mind UK ones. Times article:
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Rolex now have a database of serial numbers that you have to use to confirm it's original. If you head off to replica forums you will see people checking literally everything down to 1/2 a mm...
It sounds a remarkable amount of faff for what's a mere status symbol. Rolex have pulled off a great con trick.
Plus danger of being mugged ? Jeez.
Don't all luxury brands ultimately come down to a con? They're not really scarce and even if very high quality you could get the same quality for less, but we want the brand.
On the watch front, here is an interesting factoid....Rolex Submariner is 6x more expensive (in real terms) than 60 years ago, while they make 6x as many....Apparently Rolex now make more watches than Toyota make cars per year. Not exactly exclusive any more.
The volume claim seems exaggerated. 1 million Rolexes pa vs 10 million Toyotas.
Rolex turnover £13bn pa apparently (wiki), which is more than I expected. 30k employees.
I'm quite amused by the slogan of the Rolex founder. Nothing about quality :
"Hans Wilsdorf (22 March 1881 – 6 July 1960) was a German businessman, best known as the founder of Rolex and Tudor. Wilsdorf's philosophy for the companies was "only great marketing is needed to make a company successful".
Something being tested by cryptocoins and many 'tech' companies.
Perhaps it is the latest YouGov national poll showing them level? But TIPP, also today, shows Kamala 3% ahead nationally. And Activote, also today, shows Kamala 2% ahead in North Carolina.
Only 4% of likely voters have not yet decided who to vote for. Of the decideds (inc already voted) Harris leads by 52 to 47. Trump leads with men by 5 pts. Harris leads with women by 15 pts. Harris leads by 5 with cat owners. With dog owners it's a tie. Trump has a big lead on immigration but not on the economy where she edges it. She leads on most other issues.
And here's one that surprised me. When asked what's the main driver of their vote only 8% picked "disgust with the other candidate" (10% of Harris voters and 5% of Trump's).
Perhaps people aren't keen to admit voting for negative reasons. Or perhaps things are not quite as bitter and riven as we keep hearing.
Yes - that's the ResearchCo poll. The other poll today is YouGov showing them level. But Activote shows Harris 2% ahead in N Carolina, which is good.
All to play for.
I wonder if the polls are distorted by some wives of MAGA men unwilling to disclose their intention to vote for Kamala to pollsters? Or am I clutching at straws?
That's not a thing I'm putting much store by tbh. Overall, it's closer than I'd like 4 weeks out but she is 2 or 3 pts ahead on the averages, looks good for MI and WI, bang there for PA, NV, NC, and competitive in GA and AZ.
Trump has the harder path. He has to flip the Sunbelt states to take it to the Rustbelt and then needs PA. She can do an either/or and if she flips NC she probably doesn't need PA. Close, yes, but I'd have taken this back in the summer when it was still Biden and Trump was looking nailed on.
I still think she'll win comfortably fwiw.
Will winning be enough? Ridiculous it needs asking in a longstanding democracy.
Sadly a relevant question. I have faith that a win by her will stand. It might get messy but I think the system will hold up.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
It's about the frequency of outlier weather events not the existence of them.
And severity. Since the early 1960s, and satellites meaning none can get missed, there have been 31 Category 5 hurricanes. More than half have been since 2005.
Being generous I will ask if there was something else at the time which his brain is confusing with tax credits? As it is very careless to make disprovable claims based on people assuming the past was just like today.
Like if someone wrote a historical novel assuming they had WiFi in the 12th century or something.
Working Tax Credits were a more generous benefit, ie handout, than previous schemes such as Family Credit. But Brown and Blair thought reducing tax on hard working families sounded better and would be be more acceptable to the British public than featherbedding benefit scroungers. Basically the same as its predecessor, now spun as a tax credit,but paying out into higher income categories with more taper, to minimise cliff edges.
On the watch front, here is an interesting factoid....Rolex Submariner is 6x more expensive (in real terms) than 60 years ago, while they make 6x as many....Apparently Rolex now make more watches than Toyota make cars per year. Not exactly exclusive any more.
The volume claim seems exaggerated. 1 million Rolexes pa vs 10 million Toyotas.
Rolex turnover £13bn pa apparently (wiki), which is more than I expected. 30k employees.
I'm quite amused by the slogan of the Rolex founder. Nothing about quality :
"Hans Wilsdorf (22 March 1881 – 6 July 1960) was a German businessman, best known as the founder of Rolex and Tudor. Wilsdorf's philosophy for the companies was "only great marketing is needed to make a company successful".
Something being tested by cryptocoins and many 'tech' companies.
There was once a time in PR when the honest advice to every client began with 'get the product right first'. We now accept that this precaution was, in fact, completely unnecessary.
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Rolex now have a database of serial numbers that you have to use to confirm it's original. If you head off to replica forums you will see people checking literally everything down to 1/2 a mm...
It sounds a remarkable amount of faff for what's a mere status symbol. Rolex have pulled off a great con trick.
Plus danger of being mugged ? Jeez.
Don't all luxury brands ultimately come down to a con? They're not really scarce and even if very high quality you could get the same quality for less, but we want the brand.
The weird one about watches is they also function as a kind of currency. Very easy to walk a hundred grand's worth of Royal Oak through customs on your wrist, heck you can walk half a million through customs with a Richard Mille and most people will think you are wearing a children's watch that was won as a prize in a fairground.
Now try walking through customs with more than five grand in cash in your carry on... or gold bars, for that matter. KYC/AML has had some pretty weird effects on a lot of luxury goods, but watches especially so given their size and relative anonymity.
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Rolex now have a database of serial numbers that you have to use to confirm it's original. If you head off to replica forums you will see people checking literally everything down to 1/2 a mm...
It sounds a remarkable amount of faff for what's a mere status symbol. Rolex have pulled off a great con trick.
Plus danger of being mugged ? Jeez.
Don't all luxury brands ultimately come down to a con? They're not really scarce and even if very high quality you could get the same quality for less, but we want the brand.
The weird one about watches is they also function as a kind of currency. Very easy to walk a hundred grand's worth of Royal Oak through customs on your wrist, heck you can walk half a million through customs with a Richard Mille and most people will think you are wearing a children's watch that was won as a prize in a fairground.
Now try walking through customs with more than five grand in cash in your carry on... or gold bars, for that matter. KYC/AML has had some pretty weird effects on a lot of luxury goods, but watches especially so given their size and relative anonymity.
According to my taxi driver(s), the use of watches and fine art by the wealthy to expatriate wealth has been underway for over a year now.
What a moron, why do politicians come out with these kinds of statements that are so easily disproven.
Because he's just said 'tax credit' to refer to the credits low income families get that the name of was changed to tax credit and expanded. The Family Credit was introduced when he was 14, while that itself replaced the Family Income Supplement, which was introduced before he was born.
It's a bit like if he said 'I used to love Snickers as a child' when it was called a 'Marathon' then. Not strictly true but any fair person knows what he meant.
Cleverly's strategy I think would be to hold the fort, sound sensible, not alienate anyone and do nothing rash while he waits for Starmer, Farage, and eventually the Lib Dems, to crumble into dust. It's not a bad strategy for a fractious party with few good options, but I doubt those taking part in the selection would find it particularly compelling.
I mean it arguably worked for Davey. He came in after a shattering result, focused on the internal stuff and didn't make any egregious fuck ups. Come the election he played his affability well and reaped the rewards.
What a moron, why do politicians come out with these kinds of statements that are so easily disproven.
Because he's just said 'tax credit' to refer to the credits low income families get that the name of was changed to tax credit and expanded. The Family Credit was introduced when he was 14, while that itself replaced the Family Income Supplement, which was introduced before he was born.
It's a bit like if he said 'I used to love Snickers as a child' when it was called a 'Marathon' then. Not strictly true but any fair person knows what he meant.
Or I suppose calling it a 'Hoover' when you actually have a Dyson, if you prefer.
What a moron, why do politicians come out with these kinds of statements that are so easily disproven.
Because he's just said 'tax credit' to refer to the credits low income families get that the name of was changed to tax credit and expanded. The Family Credit was introduced when he was 14, while that itself replaced the Family Income Supplement, which was introduced before he was born.
It's a bit like if he said 'I used to love Snickers as a child' when it was called a 'Marathon' then. Not strictly true but any fair person knows what he meant.
"Relied on to raise" is still a stretch if it was introduced when he was 14.
And, of course, no politician has the right to his opponents being fair. Part of the game that he's happy to use in reverse.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says hurricane is steered by "them".
This is your frequent friendly reminder that the USA does have a weather army.
Just as a matter of interest, do you think that the Generals of the US weather army should be court martialed for allowing hurricanes hit the US when it was President Trump giving the orders?
I am trying to look at flats in London to buy. Each time I call up a large corporate estate agent chain to arrange a viewing a process starts where I have a 30 min 'registration' session where they take sensitive and personal details about my financial position, and then I get asked to agree to an appointment with an in-house mortgage broker. After all that is concluded they say someone will call me back to arrange a viewing, and then they never do. This is despite the fact I am a serious buyer and it is supposedly a 'buyers market'. What kind of business model is this? Why would anyone list a property with these agents and how can they sell them when this is how they deal with customers?
Cleverly has a serious Chagos problem - and one that I think will kill any real chance of winning or even being in the last 2.
His problem is twofold.
Firstly the Tory membership clearly seems to think that the Chagos deal is bad and he is assocaietd, however obliquely, with that deal. Whether they are right or wrong is beside the point. In this instance they are the electorate.
Secondly, whether one thinks the deal is good or bad, it is clearly a good attack line for the Tories to try and paint Labour as weak on foreign policy and to talk up the (imagined) risks to Gibralter and the Falklands. Cleverly simply can't do this because every time he raises the issue he will be met with the justified retort that Labour were simply completing the policy he had instigated.
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Rolex now have a database of serial numbers that you have to use to confirm it's original. If you head off to replica forums you will see people checking literally everything down to 1/2 a mm...
It sounds a remarkable amount of faff for what's a mere status symbol. Rolex have pulled off a great con trick.
Plus danger of being mugged ? Jeez.
Don't all luxury brands ultimately come down to a con? They're not really scarce and even if very high quality you could get the same quality for less, but we want the brand.
Yes. Generally speaking the companies with the highest profit margins are those selling luxury goods, because their brand value means they can charge a large premium over the cost of production.
The interesting one to look at in that respect is the companies behind skincare products who not only make a huge profit margin, but about half their costs are the advertising that creates their brand value.
Cleverly's strategy I think would be to hold the fort, sound sensible, not alienate anyone and do nothing rash while he waits for Starmer, Farage, and eventually the Lib Dems, to crumble into dust. It's not a bad strategy for a fractious party with few good options, but I doubt those taking part in the selection would find it particularly compelling.
So it is like Starmers approach to opposition... but that only worked because the government were in chaos.
What a moron, why do politicians come out with these kinds of statements that are so easily disproven.
Because he's just said 'tax credit' to refer to the credits low income families get that the name of was changed to tax credit and expanded. The Family Credit was introduced when he was 14, while that itself replaced the Family Income Supplement, which was introduced before he was born.
It's a bit like if he said 'I used to love Snickers as a child' when it was called a 'Marathon' then. Not strictly true but any fair person knows what he meant.
Yeah, I think as mistakes go that isn't too bad.
90% of PBers call it WFA, when it's actually WFP (I think there is a technical difference between a payment and an allowance, which I forget). And then you have all the Scottish devolved benefits which do largely the same thing as the former UK ones but all have different names. I guess it must be the same in Wales and NI.
That's why you need a financial adviser to avoid missing out on this stuff, and why there are such massive underspends at DWP. As a former "expert" on this stuff, I still come across variations, condtions and even whole payments I've never heard before.
Cleverly's strategy I think would be to hold the fort, sound sensible, not alienate anyone and do nothing rash while he waits for Starmer, Farage, and eventually the Lib Dems, to crumble into dust. It's not a bad strategy for a fractious party with few good options, but I doubt those taking part in the selection would find it particularly compelling.
So it is like Starmers approach to opposition... but that only worked because the government were in chaos.
I am trying to look at flats in London to buy. Each time I call up a large corporate estate agent chain to arrange a viewing a process starts where I have a 30 min 'registration' session where they take sensitive and personal details about my financial position, and then I get asked to agree to an appointment with an in-house mortgage broker. After all that is concluded they say someone will call me back to arrange a viewing, and then they never do. This is despite the fact I am a serious buyer and it is supposedly a 'buyers market'. What kind of business model is this? Why would anyone list a property with these agents and how can they sell them when this is how they deal with customers?
Why would you hand over that information? Stand your ground.
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Rolex now have a database of serial numbers that you have to use to confirm it's original. If you head off to replica forums you will see people checking literally everything down to 1/2 a mm...
It sounds a remarkable amount of faff for what's a mere status symbol. Rolex have pulled off a great con trick.
Plus danger of being mugged ? Jeez.
Don't all luxury brands ultimately come down to a con? They're not really scarce and even if very high quality you could get the same quality for less, but we want the brand.
Yes. Generally speaking the companies with the highest profit margins are those selling luxury goods, because their brand value means they can charge a large premium over the cost of production.
The interesting one to look at in that respect is the companies behind skincare products who not only make a huge profit margin, but about half their costs are the advertising that creates their brand value.
It's not just luxury goods.
7 out of the top 10 big pharma companies spend more on marketing than on R&D. And by a long way -
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Rolex now have a database of serial numbers that you have to use to confirm it's original. If you head off to replica forums you will see people checking literally everything down to 1/2 a mm...
It sounds a remarkable amount of faff for what's a mere status symbol. Rolex have pulled off a great con trick.
Plus danger of being mugged ? Jeez.
Don't all luxury brands ultimately come down to a con? They're not really scarce and even if very high quality you could get the same quality for less, but we want the brand.
The weird one about watches is they also function as a kind of currency. Very easy to walk a hundred grand's worth of Royal Oak through customs on your wrist, heck you can walk half a million through customs with a Richard Mille and most people will think you are wearing a children's watch that was won as a prize in a fairground.
Now try walking through customs with more than five grand in cash in your carry on... or gold bars, for that matter. KYC/AML has had some pretty weird effects on a lot of luxury goods, but watches especially so given their size and relative anonymity.
According to my taxi driver(s), the use of watches and fine art by the wealthy to expatriate wealth has been underway for over a year now.
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Rolex now have a database of serial numbers that you have to use to confirm it's original. If you head off to replica forums you will see people checking literally everything down to 1/2 a mm...
It sounds a remarkable amount of faff for what's a mere status symbol. Rolex have pulled off a great con trick.
Plus danger of being mugged ? Jeez.
Don't all luxury brands ultimately come down to a con? They're not really scarce and even if very high quality you could get the same quality for less, but we want the brand.
Yes. Generally speaking the companies with the highest profit margins are those selling luxury goods, because their brand value means they can charge a large premium over the cost of production.
The interesting one to look at in that respect is the companies behind skincare products who not only make a huge profit margin, but about half their costs are the advertising that creates their brand value.
It's not just luxury goods.
7 out of the top 10 big pharma companies spend more on marketing than on R&D. And by a long way -
I am trying to look at flats in London to buy. Each time I call up a large corporate estate agent chain to arrange a viewing a process starts where I have a 30 min 'registration' session where they take sensitive and personal details about my financial position, and then I get asked to agree to an appointment with an in-house mortgage broker. After all that is concluded they say someone will call me back to arrange a viewing, and then they never do. This is despite the fact I am a serious buyer and it is supposedly a 'buyers market'. What kind of business model is this? Why would anyone list a property with these agents and how can they sell them when this is how they deal with customers?
Tell them to get lost.
They are trying to flog you a mortgage product they get commission on and insist on your offer to view the property to be put forward to the seller.
Comments
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/04/18/software-firms-face-huge-tax-bills-that-threaten-tech-startup-survival.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-65205520
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Last aircraft recon measured flight level winds of 165kt.
Hurricane Milton is heading for a direct hit on Tampa Bay.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
My Mum relied on tax credits to raise me
He was 31 when they were introduced !!!!!
This hurricane is quite something. Almost opposite to Helene, which was a huge lumbering beast that took ages to spin up and spin down. This is a small vicious one with a pinhole eye and able to intensify very quickly but - as forecast - likely lose intensity equally quickly when hit by shear before landfall.
Trump has the harder path. He has to flip the Sunbelt states to take it to the Rustbelt and then needs PA. She can do an either/or and if she flips NC she probably doesn't need PA. Close, yes, but I'd have taken this back in the summer when it was still Biden and Trump was looking nailed on.
I still think she'll win comfortably fwiw.
The propaganda still being spread is quite remarkable.
And this from a guy who denied the state federal relief for a hurricane when he was President, and wants to defund FEMA.
Half the world has had elections so far this year"
https://www.economist.com/international/2024/10/06/over-a-billion-have-voted-in-2024-has-democracy-won
The LibDems only became successful at capturing a whole bunch of seats after they established themselves in local government. I think you could make the case that the Greens are following a similar path.
Can Reform do it without local presence and councillors and the like?
That FEMA have spent half a billion dollars on housing illegal immigrants is from their own press releases.
Trump turned up for several days in the region, bringing with him lorry loads of water, fuel, and essential supplies.
Biden said that everyone has everything they need.
Harris turned up for 10 minutes and made a joke or two about FEMA being awesome in the eyes of the victims.
https://www.newsweek.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-doubles-down-weather-comments-after-backlash-1964508
The name and eligibility criteria have changed over the years, but they have been around a long time.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/06/politics/fact-check-trump-helene-response-north-carolina/index.html
Major North Carolina newspaper knocks Trump over Helene response ‘falsehoods’
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4919363-north-carolina-trump-helene-response-harris-fema/
Mike Johnson Refuses to Call Back Congress to Vote on Hurricane Aid
Congress has not fully funded FEMA for the 2024 hurricane season
https://meidasnews.com/news/mike-johnson-refuses-to-call-back-congress-to-vote-on-hurricane-aid
But I’m not at all clear what his strategy would be to counter the social media engine of Reform. And without a winning plan for that, his vote stays split.
Next election might be super weird. Lib Dems more or less retain vote share but lose seats to the Tories. Reform overtake labour in a few dozen constituencies, mix of labour and Tory seats. Which probably translates to a Labour minority govt, perhaps with a sub 30% share? Or a Tory / Reform coalition?
180mph winds.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-georgia-hurricane-helene-b2623999.html
It isn't complicated.
Today, in our latest edition of this tracker, our Presidential Voting Intention poll of 18,875 swing state voters finds Kamala Harris ahead in five out of nine potential swing states. Donald Trump leads in three states, while the candidates are tied in Georgia.
Compared to our last swing state voting intention poll, Harris now leads Trump by a single point in three states which were previously tied: Nevada (48% to 47%), Pennsylvania (48% to 47%), and Wisconsin (47% to 46%). Trump leads in Arizona (48% to 47%), Florida (49% to 45%), and North Carolina (47% to 45%), but has lost his lead in Georgia, where both candidates are tied on 47%. Meanwhile, Harris extends her leads in Michigan (48% to 46%) and Minnesota (51% to 43%).
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-27-september-2-october-2024/
You mean stuff like this?
https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1843242847912284318
That's what people will think as the third hurricane comes blasting in.
Some may blame angry gods. Others may think -perhaps we should be doing something about the changing climate.
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/cutting-pollution-from-the-shipping-industry-accidentally-increased-global-warming-study-suggests
It does also depend on what happens to the sink whether hurricanes will get worse or not - even if the sea does gets warmer.
No, thought not.
But to cancel out the warning from carbon dioxide you'd have to emit more sulphate every year, which was never going to happen.
The climate modelling suggests that weather events like hurricanes will increase in severity and frequency. Of course, compared with last week they will always be "weather", even if they come once a month and kills thousands each time.
Like if someone wrote a historical novel assuming they had WiFi in the 12th century or something.
Very few journalists reporting in from Mariupol or Gaza either.
We know what causes earth quakes and what causes hurricanes, via the medium of science. No reliance upon gods or "freaks" necessary.
https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/ai-girl-maga-hurricane-helene-1235125285/
What could have been done differerently, on the other hand, is a much more difficult question. Clearly the sulphur emissions were not good for the immediate environment at low level, but the banning of them has had a noticable effect on sea temperatures.
On the NI School Bus crash, the regulation are safety belts are complex afaics. Different depending on the age of the bus wrt fitting, and I have no idea whether there is any requirement ensure that they are worn.
Also on a safety note, corporate exploitation of the Individual Vehicle Approval process is probably about to bring a *lot* more Dodge Ram monster pickups onto our roads, which do not meet USA safety regs for most vehicles aiui, never mind UK ones. Times article:
https://archive.ph/UfP1O
Perhaps Casino_Roya1e in a suitable San-Serif font?
If it has numbers in it we can call you Le Chiffre.
Now try walking through customs with more than five grand in cash in your carry on... or gold bars, for that matter. KYC/AML has had some pretty weird effects on a lot of luxury goods, but watches especially so given their size and relative anonymity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Fm5tmIyAKc&t=8s
He's actually said this and clarified what he meant before:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jul/21/david-lammy-defends-tweet-growing-up-on-tax-credits
It's a bit like if he said 'I used to love Snickers as a child' when it was called a 'Marathon' then. Not strictly true but any fair person knows what he meant.
And, of course, no politician has the right to his opponents being fair. Part of the game that he's happy to use in reverse.
Each time I call up a large corporate estate agent chain to arrange a viewing a process starts where I have a 30 min 'registration' session where they take sensitive and personal details about my financial position, and then I get asked to agree to an appointment with an in-house mortgage broker.
After all that is concluded they say someone will call me back to arrange a viewing, and then they never do.
This is despite the fact I am a serious buyer and it is supposedly a 'buyers market'.
What kind of business model is this? Why would anyone list a property with these agents and how can they sell them when this is how they deal with customers?
His problem is twofold.
Firstly the Tory membership clearly seems to think that the Chagos deal is bad and he is assocaietd, however obliquely, with that deal. Whether they are right or wrong is beside the point. In this instance they are the electorate.
Secondly, whether one thinks the deal is good or bad, it is clearly a good attack line for the Tories to try and paint Labour as weak on foreign policy and to talk up the (imagined) risks to Gibralter and the Falklands. Cleverly simply can't do this because every time he raises the issue he will be met with the justified retort that Labour were simply completing the policy he had instigated.
The interesting one to look at in that respect is the companies behind skincare products who not only make a huge profit margin, but about half their costs are the advertising that creates their brand value.
90% of PBers call it WFA, when it's actually WFP (I think there is a technical difference between a payment and an allowance, which I forget). And then you have all the Scottish devolved benefits which do largely the same thing as the former UK ones but all have different names. I guess it must be the same in Wales and NI.
That's why you need a financial adviser to avoid missing out on this stuff, and why there are such massive underspends at DWP. As a former "expert" on this stuff, I still come across variations, condtions and even whole payments I've never heard before.
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
7 out of the top 10 big pharma companies spend more on marketing than on R&D. And by a long way -
https://www.csrxp.org/icymi-new-study-finds-big-pharma-spent-more-on-sales-and-marketing-than-rd-during-pandemic/
Johnson and Johnson spending $22bn on marketing vs $12bn on R&D for example. For GSK, the figure is $15bn on marketing vs $7bn on R&D.
And you wonder why I buy the generic paracetamol...
Unless they are money laundering of course.
They are trying to flog you a mortgage product they get commission on and insist on your offer to view the property to be put forward to the seller.
Unlikely but not that unlikely