Lost my Casio a couple of years ago and have been without a watch ever since. I need to get another Casio. Can't fault them.
I bought a Samsung smart watch due to the need to check my pulse rate keeps near the 60bpm set by my pacemaker, but there are certain features like body mass index and some fitness tracking I avoid due to the possible interference with the pacemaker
It is excellent for tracking my daily walking, sleep and bpm
I sat a couple of seats along from a guy wearing a smart watch during a recent visit to the theatre. In the darkened auditorium the permanently illuminated display was lit up like a Christmas tree. To make things worse the guy couldn't stop fiddling with his face and so seemed to be waving the thing around constantly. It only added to my belief that modern technology is giving people infinite opportunities to be unbearable (see also: phones, vapes, social media, e-bikes).
DRONES
(e-bikes when they metamorphose into illegal e-motorcycles using the DuraAce mod, certainly)
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Lost my Casio a couple of years ago and have been without a watch ever since. I need to get another Casio. Can't fault them.
I bought a Samsung smart watch due to the need to check my pulse rate keeps near the 60bpm set by my pacemaker, but there are certain features like body mass index and some fitness tracking I avoid due to the possible interference with the pacemaker
It is excellent for tracking my daily walking, sleep and bpm
It's the sort of 'argument' that amuses me. If your watch allows you to do what you want, cool. If someone wants a bog-standard watch to just tell the time, cool. If someone doesn't want to wear a watch, cool.
My watch allows me to do what I want, pretty much. I wouldn't force anyone else to wear one, or tell people that they must get one. But neither is it, in my mind, a status symbol. It is simply a tool that does a job.
I have a watch which is definitely more a display piece then a simple tool, though it does also tell the time. I bought it deliberately because it was pretty, in the same way as someone might buy an attractive piece of jewellery.
And the inherent purpose of such things is to display status. Even with a functional watch you are displaying your disdain for display.
Speak for yourself.
The inherent purpose of my Apple Watch Ultra watch is not to display status. It's to track my running times, sleep quality and other health, and display OS Maps in hi-res on my watchface when I'm hiking.
It's about as far from an "attractive piece of jewellery" as you can get.
At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:
I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election
So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
Nope
How many seats did RefUK win?
How many seats did the Lib Dems win?
Which is bigger?
Except that parties are interested in voters, which are potentially directly transferable. And there are more Ref voters than Lib Dem voters. The present commons seat distribution is a sideshow.
Also, this election was probably high tide for the Lib Dems, particularly in seat terms. All the signs are that Reform will be growing strongly between now and 2028/9, particularly on the back of disaffected Labour votes.
Reform UK have the potential to grow, certainly, but they also have the potential to crash and burn. We’ve been here before with UKIP and growing electoral success for UKIP rapidly turned into infighting. Can RefUK scale up from the Nigel Farage show? Can they live up to expectations now they have seats in Parliament? I am confident the LibDems will still exist in 2028/9. I am not confident Reform UK will.
If Reform collapsed that would be a huge boost to the next Tory leader but I can only see that happening if they pick Jenrick or Badenoch to lead them
Lost my Casio a couple of years ago and have been without a watch ever since. I need to get another Casio. Can't fault them.
I bought a Samsung smart watch due to the need to check my pulse rate keeps near the 60bpm set by my pacemaker, but there are certain features like body mass index and some fitness tracking I avoid due to the possible interference with the pacemaker
It is excellent for tracking my daily walking, sleep and bpm
It's the sort of 'argument' that amuses me. If your watch allows you to do what you want, cool. If someone wants a bog-standard watch to just tell the time, cool. If someone doesn't want to wear a watch, cool.
My watch allows me to do what I want, pretty much. I wouldn't force anyone else to wear one, or tell people that they must get one. But neither is it, in my mind, a status symbol. It is simply a tool that does a job.
I have a watch which is definitely more a display piece then a simple tool, though it does also tell the time. I bought it deliberately because it was pretty, in the same way as someone might buy an attractive piece of jewellery.
And the inherent purpose of such things is to display status. Even with a functional watch you are displaying your disdain for display.
Speak for yourself.
The inherent purpose of my Apple Watch Ultra watch is not to display status. It's to track my running times, sleep quality and other health, and display OS Maps in hi-res on my watchface when I'm hiking.
It's about as far from an "attractive piece of jewellery" as you can get.
True, but it's also good to have something acceptable for the office. That's why I upgraded from the Instinct (good if you're in the police or army, perhaps) to the Fenix.
Another example of the piss poor media management / Starmer has tin ear....
Downing Street has categorically ruled out talks with Argentina and Spain over the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar. The Government’s decision last week to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius sparked questions about the future of the Falklands and Gibraltar. Sir Keir Starmer was asked last Friday to guarantee that no other British overseas territory would be signed away by the Government, but he avoided the question.
It was an easy question, to which the answer was NO. Instead they enabled a story to run giving the impression that you never know do you.
I was thinking on the Chagos thing last night
This is what we should have done. Offered the Chagossians - here in the UK and Mauritiius - a plebiscite and let THEM choose
1. Become full UK citizens, Chagos remains British, indeed it is incorporated into the UK as a democratic constituency. They can settle on any island apart from Diego Garcia. The UKG and the Chagossians together decide the future of the seas and its riches
2. What Labour did. Hand it all over to Mauritius (and China). No UK citizenship
I am pretty sure they would have chosen option 1. And then Britain would have kept the Chagos, kept the base, kept China at bay, and satisfied the Chagossians AND we would have then had a cast iron case to show the ICJ and the UN, "they have decided, that's democracy"
Yes, that would have been a way ahead.
I'm not certain that the vote would have gone that way. Quite a few of the Chagossians in Mauritius are said to be keen on being part of Mauritius.
We should have done the same in Hong Kong - held a referendum.
Hong Kong it was not realistic for us to keep control after the lease was up or even give Hong Kongers independence unless the US was also on board as only US support could have contained Beijing
I'm not convinced. The Chinese didn't formally recognise the treaties that gave Britain Hong Kong, so the expiration of the lease was only a problem for Britain, which a referendum could have changed, and then the status quo would likely have continued for at least some time.
No, Beijing would likely have sent tanks into Hong Kong once the lease had expired in 1997 if the handover had not happened as agreed in the Treaty between Thatcher and Chinese leaders in the 1980s
If you think the Tories are having trouble getting a half decent leader, spare a thought for Hezbollah....
There’s definitely a Monty python sketch there - everyone denying that the chance to be Spartacus
There are suggestions on X (cavaet emperor) that the long time deputy of Hezbollah has refused to take up leadership role.
Naim Qassem, Deputy head of Hezbollah since 1991, not only refused to become the new head, but also resigned from his position and won't be affiliated with Hezbollah anymore 🤣 He was last seen heavily sweating and stressed in a video after Nasrallah's elimination.
Another example of the piss poor media management / Starmer has tin ear....
Downing Street has categorically ruled out talks with Argentina and Spain over the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar. The Government’s decision last week to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius sparked questions about the future of the Falklands and Gibraltar. Sir Keir Starmer was asked last Friday to guarantee that no other British overseas territory would be signed away by the Government, but he avoided the question.
It was an easy question, to which the answer was NO. Instead they enabled a story to run giving the impression that you never know do you.
I was thinking on the Chagos thing last night
This is what we should have done. Offered the Chagossians - here in the UK and Mauritiius - a plebiscite and let THEM choose
1. Become full UK citizens, Chagos remains British, indeed it is incorporated into the UK as a democratic constituency. They can settle on any island apart from Diego Garcia. The UKG and the Chagossians together decide the future of the seas and its riches
2. What Labour did. Hand it all over to Mauritius (and China). No UK citizenship
I am pretty sure they would have chosen option 1. And then Britain would have kept the Chagos, kept the base, kept China at bay, and satisfied the Chagossians AND we would have then had a cast iron case to show the ICJ and the UN, "they have decided, that's democracy"
Yes, that would have been a way ahead.
I'm not certain that the vote would have gone that way. Quite a few of the Chagossians in Mauritius are said to be keen on being part of Mauritius.
We should have done the same in Hong Kong - held a referendum.
Well then if they then vote for Mauritius, so be it. Good for them. We THEN cut a deal
But we should have asked them, first
It's what France does. The people of Mayotte voted to become part of France
At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:
I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election
So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
Nope
How many seats did RefUK win?
How many seats did the Lib Dems win?
Which is bigger?
Except that parties are interested in voters, which are potentially directly transferable. And there are more Ref voters than Lib Dem voters. The present commons seat distribution is a sideshow.
Also, this election was probably high tide for the Lib Dems, particularly in seat terms. All the signs are that Reform will be growing strongly between now and 2028/9, particularly on the back of disaffected Labour votes.
Reform UK have the potential to grow, certainly, but they also have the potential to crash and burn. We’ve been here before with UKIP and growing electoral success for UKIP rapidly turned into infighting. Can RefUK scale up from the Nigel Farage show? Can they live up to expectations now they have seats in Parliament? I am confident the LibDems will still exist in 2028/9. I am not confident Reform UK will.
If Reform collapsed that would be a huge boost to the next Tory leader but I can only see that happening if they pick Jenrick or Badenoch to lead them
I don’t think the probability of a Reform UK collapse is that dependent on who the Tories pick as a leader. I think it’s got more to do with the internal relationships within Reform UK and Farage’s psychology.
Lost my Casio a couple of years ago and have been without a watch ever since. I need to get another Casio. Can't fault them.
I bought a Samsung smart watch due to the need to check my pulse rate keeps near the 60bpm set by my pacemaker, but there are certain features like body mass index and some fitness tracking I avoid due to the possible interference with the pacemaker
It is excellent for tracking my daily walking, sleep and bpm
It's the sort of 'argument' that amuses me. If your watch allows you to do what you want, cool. If someone wants a bog-standard watch to just tell the time, cool. If someone doesn't want to wear a watch, cool.
My watch allows me to do what I want, pretty much. I wouldn't force anyone else to wear one, or tell people that they must get one. But neither is it, in my mind, a status symbol. It is simply a tool that does a job.
I have a watch which is definitely more a display piece then a simple tool, though it does also tell the time. I bought it deliberately because it was pretty, in the same way as someone might buy an attractive piece of jewellery.
And the inherent purpose of such things is to display status. Even with a functional watch you are displaying your disdain for display.
Speak for yourself.
The inherent purpose of my Apple Watch Ultra watch is not to display status. It's to track my running times, sleep quality and other health, and display OS Maps in hi-res on my watchface when I'm hiking.
It's about as far from an "attractive piece of jewellery" as you can get.
You go hiking? Oooh, where?
All over England & Wales, long-distance. Chiefly, but not exclusively, in national parks. I love it.
At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:
I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election
So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
Nope
How many seats did RefUK win?
How many seats did the Lib Dems win?
Which is bigger?
Except that parties are interested in voters, which are potentially directly transferable. And there are more Ref voters than Lib Dem voters. The present commons seat distribution is a sideshow.
Also, this election was probably high tide for the Lib Dems, particularly in seat terms. All the signs are that Reform will be growing strongly between now and 2028/9, particularly on the back of disaffected Labour votes.
It's a fascinating question, because FPTP hammers parties which suffer from tactical voting against them.
It will be interesting to see how that impact Reform next time around.
Lost my Casio a couple of years ago and have been without a watch ever since. I need to get another Casio. Can't fault them.
I bought a Samsung smart watch due to the need to check my pulse rate keeps near the 60bpm set by my pacemaker, but there are certain features like body mass index and some fitness tracking I avoid due to the possible interference with the pacemaker
It is excellent for tracking my daily walking, sleep and bpm
It's the sort of 'argument' that amuses me. If your watch allows you to do what you want, cool. If someone wants a bog-standard watch to just tell the time, cool. If someone doesn't want to wear a watch, cool.
My watch allows me to do what I want, pretty much. I wouldn't force anyone else to wear one, or tell people that they must get one. But neither is it, in my mind, a status symbol. It is simply a tool that does a job.
I have a watch which is definitely more a display piece then a simple tool, though it does also tell the time. I bought it deliberately because it was pretty, in the same way as someone might buy an attractive piece of jewellery.
And the inherent purpose of such things is to display status. Even with a functional watch you are displaying your disdain for display.
Speak for yourself.
The inherent purpose of my Apple Watch Ultra watch is not to display status. It's to track my running times, sleep quality and other health, and display OS Maps in hi-res on my watchface when I'm hiking.
It's about as far from an "attractive piece of jewellery" as you can get.
True, but it's also good to have something acceptable for the office. That's why I upgraded from the Instinct (good if you're in the police or army, perhaps) to the Fenix.
The Apple Watch Ultra is perfectly acceptable for my office. I also wear it with black tie at work gala events. It has an orange strap!
Another example of the piss poor media management / Starmer has tin ear....
Downing Street has categorically ruled out talks with Argentina and Spain over the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar. The Government’s decision last week to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius sparked questions about the future of the Falklands and Gibraltar. Sir Keir Starmer was asked last Friday to guarantee that no other British overseas territory would be signed away by the Government, but he avoided the question.
It was an easy question, to which the answer was NO. Instead they enabled a story to run giving the impression that you never know do you.
I was thinking on the Chagos thing last night
This is what we should have done. Offered the Chagossians - here in the UK and Mauritiius - a plebiscite and let THEM choose
1. Become full UK citizens, Chagos remains British, indeed it is incorporated into the UK as a democratic constituency. They can settle on any island apart from Diego Garcia. The UKG and the Chagossians together decide the future of the seas and its riches
2. What Labour did. Hand it all over to Mauritius (and China). No UK citizenship
I am pretty sure they would have chosen option 1. And then Britain would have kept the Chagos, kept the base, kept China at bay, and satisfied the Chagossians AND we would have then had a cast iron case to show the ICJ and the UN, "they have decided, that's democracy"
Yes, that would have been a way ahead.
I'm not certain that the vote would have gone that way. Quite a few of the Chagossians in Mauritius are said to be keen on being part of Mauritius.
We should have done the same in Hong Kong - held a referendum.
Well then if they then vote for Mauritius, so be it. Good for them. We THEN cut a deal
But we should have asked them, first
It's what France does. The people of Mayotte voted to become part of France
Being a Crown Dependency or Overseas Territory does seem like a very good deal. Get left alone, might have to put up with a big air base, access to careers and universities in the UK for the kids, flotilla arrives the event the local autocrat decides they want a new possession, local democracy, tax haven. Nice.
"Sopel’s arched eyebrow over Trump’s America, especially on the BBC’s Americast podcast, won him many fans in Britain. But did it add to their understanding of what was happening there? His 40-page rehash of the January 6, 2021 riots at the US Capitol building in Strangeland (a book, remember, that is supposed to be about “Britishness”) is telling. He calls it “the most shocking day of my journalistic career”. The day ended with Sopel tweeting a picture of a glass of red wine to tell his followers he was “fine”."
Close competition with Justin Webb for worst BBC US correspondent ever.
I may be very wrong but both of them seem to be sneering metropolitan liberals who cannot understand any viewpoint that is not their own. Hence Brexit would be a disaster, they cannot conceive of anyone voting for Trump etc. Not great to be so closed minded in someone purporting to be a reporter of a great nation like the USA.
If you think the Tories are having trouble getting a half decent leader, spare a thought for Hezbollah....
There’s definitely a Monty python sketch there - everyone denying that the chance to be Spartacus
There are suggestions on X (cavaet emperor) that the long time deputy of Hezbollah has refused to take up leadership role.
Naim Qassem, Deputy head of Hezbollah since 1991, not only refused to become the new head, but also resigned from his position and won't be affiliated with Hezbollah anymore 🤣 He was last seen heavily sweating and stressed in a video after Nasrallah's elimination.
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Rolex now have a database of serial numbers that you have to use to confirm it's original. If you head off to replica forums you will see people checking literally everything down to 1/2 a mm...
Cleverly seems the obviously least bad option for the Tories.
Tugendhat is the obvious option. He performed well as Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee. I don’t think any of the other three can point to something they were a comparable success at.
He is the obvious choice to the non swivel-eyed Tories who will have the casting vote. I'd happily vote for him as a broadly centre right chap.
Another example of the piss poor media management / Starmer has tin ear....
Downing Street has categorically ruled out talks with Argentina and Spain over the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar. The Government’s decision last week to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius sparked questions about the future of the Falklands and Gibraltar. Sir Keir Starmer was asked last Friday to guarantee that no other British overseas territory would be signed away by the Government, but he avoided the question.
It was an easy question, to which the answer was NO. Instead they enabled a story to run giving the impression that you never know do you.
I was thinking on the Chagos thing last night
This is what we should have done. Offered the Chagossians - here in the UK and Mauritiius - a plebiscite and let THEM choose
1. Become full UK citizens, Chagos remains British, indeed it is incorporated into the UK as a democratic constituency. They can settle on any island apart from Diego Garcia. The UKG and the Chagossians together decide the future of the seas and its riches
2. What Labour did. Hand it all over to Mauritius (and China). No UK citizenship
I am pretty sure they would have chosen option 1. And then Britain would have kept the Chagos, kept the base, kept China at bay, and satisfied the Chagossians AND we would have then had a cast iron case to show the ICJ and the UN, "they have decided, that's democracy"
Yes, that would have been a way ahead.
I'm not certain that the vote would have gone that way. Quite a few of the Chagossians in Mauritius are said to be keen on being part of Mauritius.
We should have done the same in Hong Kong - held a referendum.
Well then if they then vote for Mauritius, so be it. Good for them. We THEN cut a deal
But we should have asked them, first
It's what France does. The people of Mayotte voted to become part of France
Being a Crown Dependency or Overseas Territory does seem like a very good deal. Get left alone, might have to put up with a big air base, access to careers and universities in the UK for the kids, flotilla arrives the event the local autocrat decides they want a new possession.
Yes, and I am fairly sure the Chagossians would have voted to stay British (as in my proposal). It's a sweet deal
Instead they will have some vague rights to go to the atolls but be run by a tiny island-nation in hock to China, which could at any moment decide to move them all off again and let the Chinese build fishing ports, and so on
Lost my Casio a couple of years ago and have been without a watch ever since. I need to get another Casio. Can't fault them.
I bought a Samsung smart watch due to the need to check my pulse rate keeps near the 60bpm set by my pacemaker, but there are certain features like body mass index and some fitness tracking I avoid due to the possible interference with the pacemaker
It is excellent for tracking my daily walking, sleep and bpm
It's the sort of 'argument' that amuses me. If your watch allows you to do what you want, cool. If someone wants a bog-standard watch to just tell the time, cool. If someone doesn't want to wear a watch, cool.
My watch allows me to do what I want, pretty much. I wouldn't force anyone else to wear one, or tell people that they must get one. But neither is it, in my mind, a status symbol. It is simply a tool that does a job.
I have a watch which is definitely more a display piece then a simple tool, though it does also tell the time. I bought it deliberately because it was pretty, in the same way as someone might buy an attractive piece of jewellery.
And the inherent purpose of such things is to display status. Even with a functional watch you are displaying your disdain for display.
Speak for yourself.
The inherent purpose of my Apple Watch Ultra watch is not to display status. It's to track my running times, sleep quality and other health, and display OS Maps in hi-res on my watchface when I'm hiking.
It's about as far from an "attractive piece of jewellery" as you can get.
You go hiking? Oooh, where?
All over England & Wales, long-distance. Chiefly, but not exclusively, in national parks. I love it.
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Yep. The fakes are absolutely indistinguishable from the real ones now. But aside from the price, they don't come with the three year wait list (ADs *definitely* don't pass all their stock on to watch flippers who sell them at inflated prices and take a cut themselves).
At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:
I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election
So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
You are making the mistake of thinking about Reform as a classic political party
They aren’t - they are simply an inchoate cry of rage channelled by one person.
Without Farage it all dissipates. I’m not sure that I’ve seen them doing the work to become a serious party
You haven't really been looking then. Their most recent law and order press conference, they've sent a letter to Yvette Cooper to demand she expedites the prosecution of the Manchester Airport attackers, who are currently wandering the streets unencumbered, and threatening a private prosecution if she doesn't. That's good policy and good politics.
If you think the Tories are having trouble getting a half decent leader, spare a thought for Hezbollah....
There’s definitely a Monty python sketch there - everyone denying that the chance to be Spartacus
There are suggestions on X (cavaet emperor) that the long time deputy of Hezbollah has refused to take up leadership role.
Naim Qassem, Deputy head of Hezbollah since 1991, not only refused to become the new head, but also resigned from his position and won't be affiliated with Hezbollah anymore 🤣 He was last seen heavily sweating and stressed in a video after Nasrallah's elimination.
Kill all the old realists and only the younger radicals will be left. Which may be what Netanyahu wants, but might not be a boon for the Israeli public when the proper hot heads get going.
IMO This war is going raze a beautiful land, radicalise the Lebanese and will further isolate Israel particularly from the EU. We can see France drifting and this is before Beirut gets the full mk84 treatment and only a few of its hospitals have been Bibied.
Cleverly seems the obviously least bad option for the Tories.
Tugendhat is the obvious option. He performed well as Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee. I don’t think any of the other three can point to something they were a comparable success at.
He is the obvious choice to the non swivel-eyed Tories who will have the casting vote. I'd happily vote for him as a broadly centre right chap.
You would think after Boris and Truss, and all the characters associated with those governments, they might want to pick somebody who in opposition isn't going to get headlines for all the wrong reasons with whacky ideas and divisive comments. Sunak was found at doing the top job, but Tugendhat won't be doing that. Look what Labour did after Corbyn, they picked Mr boring and that worked out well for them. The Tories don't even need to think that Tugendhat will be leader at the GE, they could think more short term and 2-3 years of not shitting the bed.
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Yep. The fakes are absolutely indistinguishable from the real ones now. But aside from the price, they don't come with the three year wait list (ADs *definitely* don't pass all their stock on to watch flippers who sell them at inflated prices and take a cut themselves).
Another example of the piss poor media management / Starmer has tin ear....
Downing Street has categorically ruled out talks with Argentina and Spain over the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar. The Government’s decision last week to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius sparked questions about the future of the Falklands and Gibraltar. Sir Keir Starmer was asked last Friday to guarantee that no other British overseas territory would be signed away by the Government, but he avoided the question.
It was an easy question, to which the answer was NO. Instead they enabled a story to run giving the impression that you never know do you.
I was thinking on the Chagos thing last night
This is what we should have done. Offered the Chagossians - here in the UK and Mauritiius - a plebiscite and let THEM choose
1. Become full UK citizens, Chagos remains British, indeed it is incorporated into the UK as a democratic constituency. They can settle on any island apart from Diego Garcia. The UKG and the Chagossians together decide the future of the seas and its riches
2. What Labour did. Hand it all over to Mauritius (and China). No UK citizenship
I am pretty sure they would have chosen option 1. And then Britain would have kept the Chagos, kept the base, kept China at bay, and satisfied the Chagossians AND we would have then had a cast iron case to show the ICJ and the UN, "they have decided, that's democracy"
Yes, that would have been a way ahead.
I'm not certain that the vote would have gone that way. Quite a few of the Chagossians in Mauritius are said to be keen on being part of Mauritius.
We should have done the same in Hong Kong - held a referendum.
Hong Kong it was not realistic for us to keep control after the lease was up or even give Hong Kongers independence unless the US was also on board as only US support could have contained Beijing
I'm not convinced. The Chinese didn't formally recognise the treaties that gave Britain Hong Kong, so the expiration of the lease was only a problem for Britain, which a referendum could have changed, and then the status quo would likely have continued for at least some time.
The Chinese said, explicitly, that they would treat a referendum on anything other than going back to the mainland as a hostile act and invade. So no UDI or Taiwan
The arrangements negotiated worked in terms of One Country, Two Systems until Zi tore everything up.
In particular, keeping the police and courts kept the Chinese State at bay for a long time after the handover.
Cleverly seems the obviously least bad option for the Tories.
Tugendhat is the obvious option. He performed well as Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee. I don’t think any of the other three can point to something they were a comparable success at.
He is the obvious choice to the non swivel-eyed Tories who will have the casting vote. I'd happily vote for him as a broadly centre right chap.
You would think after Boris and Truss, and all the characters associated with those governments, they might want to pick somebody who in opposition isn't going to get headlines for all the wrong reasons with whacky ideas and divisive comments. Sunak was found at doing the top job, but Tugendhat won't be doing that. Look what Labour did after Corbyn, they picked Mr boring and that worked out well for them.
At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:
I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election
So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
You are making the mistake of thinking about Reform as a classic political party
They aren’t - they are simply an inchoate cry of rage channelled by one person.
Without Farage it all dissipates. I’m not sure that I’ve seen them doing the work to become a serious party
You haven't really been looking then. Their most recent law and order press conference, they've sent a letter to Yvette Cooper to demand she expedites the prosecution of the Manchester Airport attackers, who are currently wandering the streets unencumbered, and threatening a private prosecution if she doesn't. That's good policy and good politics.
That's basically saying that the Manchester Police / CPS isn't doing something that quickly..
How you run a private prosecution when you haven't got the evidence is going to be interesting to watch - were I Yvette I would tell Reform to get on and do it for the Lols because it would fail hopelessly..
"The goalposts are starting to shift on Labour’s taxation policies once again. Liam Byrne, a key figure in the government and chair of the Commons Business and Trade Committee, is calling on the party to raise taxes on wealth. Byrne does not just see a raid on people’s wealth as a means to raise revenue, but also as a way to curtail the rise of populism in Britain — as strange as this might seem."
Cleverly seems the obviously least bad option for the Tories.
Tugendhat is the obvious option. He performed well as Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee. I don’t think any of the other three can point to something they were a comparable success at.
He is the obvious choice to the non swivel-eyed Tories who will have the casting vote. I'd happily vote for him as a broadly centre right chap.
You would think after Boris and Truss, and all the characters associated with those governments, they might want to pick somebody who in opposition isn't going to get headlines for all the wrong reasons with whacky ideas and divisive comments. Sunak was found at doing the top job, but Tugendhat won't be doing that. Look what Labour did after Corbyn, they picked Mr boring and that worked out well for them.
It has?
Well it got them a big majority. Now what they are doing with it, Starmer is getting found out so far (just like Sunak was). But the Tories don't even need to think that long term, 2-3 years without constant craziness will be improvement for them.
I doubt the California figures make much difference, nationally if Harris is ahead by 3%+ she almost certainly wins, less than that and Trump probably has the advantage. Though she is doing better in swing states like NC than Hillary did
"The goalposts are starting to shift on Labour’s taxation policies once again. Liam Byrne, a key figure in the government and chair of the Commons Business and Trade Committee, is calling on the party to raise taxes on wealth. Byrne does not just see a raid on people’s wealth as a means to raise revenue, but also as a way to curtail the rise of populism in Britain — as strange as this might seem."
They are going to have to put on a lot of extra capacity in flights to Dubai....
The UK might benefit from making the wings and engines for that new fleet of A380s.
I thought there were umpteen sitting in the desert?
In 2020 there were, but not any more. Air travel is going gangbusters at the moment, a friend got quoted £1k a ticket out here from London for half term week.
If you think the Tories are having trouble getting a half decent leader, spare a thought for Hezbollah....
There’s definitely a Monty python sketch there - everyone denying that the chance to be Spartacus
There are suggestions on X (cavaet emperor) that the long time deputy of Hezbollah has refused to take up leadership role.
Naim Qassem, Deputy head of Hezbollah since 1991, not only refused to become the new head, but also resigned from his position and won't be affiliated with Hezbollah anymore 🤣 He was last seen heavily sweating and stressed in a video after Nasrallah's elimination.
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Yep. The fakes are absolutely indistinguishable from the real ones now. But aside from the price, they don't come with the three year wait list (ADs *definitely* don't pass all their stock on to watch flippers who sell them at inflated prices and take a cut themselves).
On the watch front, here is an interesting factoid....Rolex Submariner is 6x more expensive (in real terms) than 60 years ago, while they make 6x as many....Apparently Rolex now make more watches than Toyota make cars per year. Not exactly exclusive any more.
The volume claim seems exaggerated. 1 million Rolexes pa vs 10 million Toyotas.
Rolex turnover £13bn pa apparently (wiki), which is more than I expected. 30k employees.
I'm quite amused by the slogan of the Rolex founder. Nothing about quality :
"Hans Wilsdorf (22 March 1881 – 6 July 1960) was a German businessman, best known as the founder of Rolex and Tudor. Wilsdorf's philosophy for the companies was "only great marketing is needed to make a company successful".
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Yep. The fakes are absolutely indistinguishable from the real ones now. But aside from the price, they don't come with the three year wait list (ADs *definitely* don't pass all their stock on to watch flippers who sell them at inflated prices and take a cut themselves).
What kind of perverse psycho stabs someone to death for a watch? Surely you just menace them with your blade until they hand it over?
Why kill?
It may be a good idea to plan for such an eventuality so the fleeting temptation to fight back doesn't spoil your day.
There is something a bit strange about that story. Three of them came out of a car and he immediately tried to run away, they caught him and stabbed him, then took his watch.
In the case it was said a member of the security at an event the murdered man was attending tipped off this gang. Its just a bit weird that you come out of an event and you instantly try and run away, and the robbers don't at least first say give us your watch.
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Yep. The fakes are absolutely indistinguishable from the real ones now. But aside from the price, they don't come with the three year wait list (ADs *definitely* don't pass all their stock on to watch flippers who sell them at inflated prices and take a cut themselves).
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Yep. The fakes are absolutely indistinguishable from the real ones now. But aside from the price, they don't come with the three year wait list (ADs *definitely* don't pass all their stock on to watch flippers who sell them at inflated prices and take a cut themselves).
What kind of perverse psycho stabs someone to death for a watch? Surely you just menace them with your blade until they hand it over?
Why kill?
It may be a good idea to plan for such an eventuality so the fleeting temptation to fight back doesn't spoil your day.
There is something a bit strange about that story. Three of them came out of a car and he immediately tried to run away, they caught him and stabbed him, then took his watch.
Yes. I sense an underlying story. Perhaps more than just a robbery
See this tiny detail:
"A fifth man, Antonios Kfoury, 23, was earlier found guilty of perverting the course of justice and subsequently received an 18-month custodial sentence."
On the watch front, here is an interesting factoid....Rolex Submariner is 6x more expensive (in real terms) than 60 years ago, while they make 6x as many....Apparently Rolex now make more watches than Toyota make cars per year. Not exactly exclusive any more.
The volume claim seems exaggerated. 1 million Rolexes pa vs 10 million Toyotas.
Rolex turnover £13bn pa apparently (wiki), which is more than I expected. 30k employees.
I'm quite amused by the slogan of the Rolex founder. Nothing about quality :
"Hans Wilsdorf (22 March 1881 – 6 July 1960) was a German businessman, best known as the founder of Rolex and Tudor. Wilsdorf's philosophy for the companies was "only great marketing is needed to make a company successful".
I corrected my mistake, I meant to say Toyotas sold in US every year not worldwide.
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Yep. The fakes are absolutely indistinguishable from the real ones now. But aside from the price, they don't come with the three year wait list (ADs *definitely* don't pass all their stock on to watch flippers who sell them at inflated prices and take a cut themselves).
What kind of perverse psycho stabs someone to death for a watch? Surely you just menace them with your blade until they hand it over?
Why kill?
It may be a good idea to plan for such an eventuality so the fleeting temptation to fight back doesn't spoil your day.
There is something a bit strange about that story. Three of them came out of a car and he immediately tried to run away, they caught him and stabbed him, then took his watch.
In the case it was said a member of the security at an event the murdered man was attending tipped off this gang. Its just a bit weird that you come out of an event and you instantly try and run away, and the robbers don't at least first say give us your watch.
Almost as if they’re trying to cover up a gang-related murder as a simple watch theft gone wrong…
"The goalposts are starting to shift on Labour’s taxation policies once again. Liam Byrne, a key figure in the government and chair of the Commons Business and Trade Committee, is calling on the party to raise taxes on wealth. Byrne does not just see a raid on people’s wealth as a means to raise revenue, but also as a way to curtail the rise of populism in Britain — as strange as this might seem."
They are going to have to put on a lot of extra capacity in flights to Dubai....
The UK might benefit from making the wings and engines for that new fleet of A380s.
I thought there were umpteen sitting in the desert?
In 2020 there were, but not any more. Air travel is going gangbusters at the moment, a friend got quoted £1k a ticket out here from London for half term week.
Is that high or low, and economy or business?
The last time I did long haul Business Class was from the UK to Australia and back pre-COVID - £1500. Dubai to Oz was in an A380; nice beds, and a nice lounge in Dubai.
Which was a big discount, but supports your statement.
"The goalposts are starting to shift on Labour’s taxation policies once again. Liam Byrne, a key figure in the government and chair of the Commons Business and Trade Committee, is calling on the party to raise taxes on wealth. Byrne does not just see a raid on people’s wealth as a means to raise revenue, but also as a way to curtail the rise of populism in Britain — as strange as this might seem."
They are going to have to put on a lot of extra capacity in flights to Dubai....
The UK might benefit from making the wings and engines for that new fleet of A380s.
I thought there were umpteen sitting in the desert?
In 2020 there were, but not any more. Air travel is going gangbusters at the moment, a friend got quoted £1k a ticket out here from London for half term week.
Is that high or low, and economy or business?
The last time I did long haul Business Class was from the UK to Australia and back - £1500. Dubai to Oz was in an A380; nice beds, and nice lounge in Dubai.
That’s economy for London-Dubai, and as high as it’s possibly even been.
Yeah, biz class on the A380 is rather lovely. Only done it once.
On the watch front, here is an interesting factoid....Rolex Submariner is 6x more expensive (in real terms) than 60 years ago, while they make 6x as many....Apparently Rolex now make more watches than Toyota make cars per year. Not exactly exclusive any more.
The volume claim seems exaggerated. 1 million Rolexes pa vs 10 million Toyotas.
Rolex turnover £13bn pa apparently (wiki), which is more than I expected. 30k employees.
I'm quite amused by the slogan of the Rolex founder. Nothing about quality :
"Hans Wilsdorf (22 March 1881 – 6 July 1960) was a German businessman, best known as the founder of Rolex and Tudor. Wilsdorf's philosophy for the companies was "only great marketing is needed to make a company successful".
I corrected my mistake, I meant to say Toyotas sold in US every year not worldwide.
On the watch front, here is an interesting factoid....Rolex Submariner is 6x more expensive (in real terms) than 60 years ago, while they make 6x as many....Apparently Rolex now make more watches than Toyota make cars per year. Not exactly exclusive any more.
The volume claim seems exaggerated. 1 million Rolexes pa vs 10 million Toyotas.
Rolex turnover £13bn pa apparently (wiki), which is more than I expected. 30k employees.
I'm quite amused by the slogan of the Rolex founder. Nothing about quality :
"Hans Wilsdorf (22 March 1881 – 6 July 1960) was a German businessman, best known as the founder of Rolex and Tudor. Wilsdorf's philosophy for the companies was "only great marketing is needed to make a company successful".
Well, they don't traditionally keep very good time
At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:
I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election
So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
You are making the mistake of thinking about Reform as a classic political party
They aren’t - they are simply an inchoate cry of rage channelled by one person.
Without Farage it all dissipates. I’m not sure that I’ve seen them doing the work to become a serious party
You haven't really been looking then. Their most recent law and order press conference, they've sent a letter to Yvette Cooper to demand she expedites the prosecution of the Manchester Airport attackers, who are currently wandering the streets unencumbered, and threatening a private prosecution if she doesn't. That's good policy and good politics.
That's basically saying that the Manchester Police / CPS isn't doing something that quickly..
How you run a private prosecution when you haven't got the evidence is going to be interesting to watch - were I Yvette I would tell Reform to get on and do it for the Lols because it would fail hopelessly..
Which would be hopelessly bad politics, so it's lucky for Cooper that you're not advising her.
At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:
I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election
So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
Nope
How many seats did RefUK win?
How many seats did the Lib Dems win?
Which is bigger?
Except that parties are interested in voters, which are potentially directly transferable. And there are more Ref voters than Lib Dem voters. The present commons seat distribution is a sideshow.
Also, this election was probably high tide for the Lib Dems, particularly in seat terms. All the signs are that Reform will be growing strongly between now and 2028/9, particularly on the back of disaffected Labour votes.
Reform UK have the potential to grow, certainly, but they also have the potential to crash and burn. We’ve been here before with UKIP and growing electoral success for UKIP rapidly turned into infighting. Can RefUK scale up from the Nigel Farage show? Can they live up to expectations now they have seats in Parliament? I am confident the LibDems will still exist in 2028/9. I am not confident Reform UK will.
If Reform collapsed that would be a huge boost to the next Tory leader but I can only see that happening if they pick Jenrick or Badenoch to lead them
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Yep. The fakes are absolutely indistinguishable from the real ones now. But aside from the price, they don't come with the three year wait list (ADs *definitely* don't pass all their stock on to watch flippers who sell them at inflated prices and take a cut themselves).
What kind of perverse psycho stabs someone to death for a watch? Surely you just menace them with your blade until they hand it over?
Why kill?
It may be a good idea to plan for such an eventuality so the fleeting temptation to fight back doesn't spoil your day.
There is something a bit strange about that story. Three of them came out of a car and he immediately tried to run away, they caught him and stabbed him, then took his watch.
In the case it was said a member of the security at an event the murdered man was attending tipped off this gang. Its just a bit weird that you come out of an event and you instantly try and run away, and the robbers don't at least first say give us your watch.
Suggests the intent was murder, and the watch was just spoils.
"Sopel’s arched eyebrow over Trump’s America, especially on the BBC’s Americast podcast, won him many fans in Britain. But did it add to their understanding of what was happening there? His 40-page rehash of the January 6, 2021 riots at the US Capitol building in Strangeland (a book, remember, that is supposed to be about “Britishness”) is telling. He calls it “the most shocking day of my journalistic career”. The day ended with Sopel tweeting a picture of a glass of red wine to tell his followers he was “fine”."
Close competition with Justin Webb for worst BBC US correspondent ever.
I may be very wrong but both of them seem to be sneering metropolitan liberals who cannot understand any viewpoint that is not their own. Hence Brexit would be a disaster, they cannot conceive of anyone voting for Trump etc. Not great to be so closed minded in someone purporting to be a reporter of a great nation like the USA.
No idea of Webb's politics - but he appeared to have almost exclusively GOP contacts, judging from his reporting. I don't think their piss poorness has much to do with their being liberals, sneering or otherwise.
At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:
I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election
So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
You are making the mistake of thinking about Reform as a classic political party
They aren’t - they are simply an inchoate cry of rage channelled by one person.
Without Farage it all dissipates. I’m not sure that I’ve seen them doing the work to become a serious party
You haven't really been looking then. Their most recent law and order press conference, they've sent a letter to Yvette Cooper to demand she expedites the prosecution of the Manchester Airport attackers, who are currently wandering the streets unencumbered, and threatening a private prosecution if she doesn't. That's good policy and good politics.
Nah that’s standard stuff.
It’s the hard yards of organisation and structure that will determine whether they flourish long term or not. They may do - but I suspect they fizzle out when Farage decides he’s had enough (and at some point he will be old news - don’t forget that he’s been in the front line for 20(?) years now
Cleverly seems the obviously least bad option for the Tories.
Tugendhat is the obvious option. He performed well as Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee. I don’t think any of the other three can point to something they were a comparable success at.
He is the obvious choice to the non swivel-eyed Tories who will have the casting vote. I'd happily vote for him as a broadly centre right chap.
You would think after Boris and Truss, and all the characters associated with those governments, they might want to pick somebody who in opposition isn't going to get headlines for all the wrong reasons with whacky ideas and divisive comments. Sunak was found at doing the top job, but Tugendhat won't be doing that. Look what Labour did after Corbyn, they picked Mr boring and that worked out well for them.
It has?
Well it got them a big majority. Now what they are doing with it, Starmer is getting found out so far (just like Sunak was). But the Tories don't even need to think that long term, 2-3 years without constant craziness will be improvement for them.
Sunak being shit and Reform got them a big minority. There is no evidence of a positive vote for Starmer - his flaccid vote share actually indicates otherwise.
I've never paid more than £30 for a watch. I've had my Sekonda for about 15 years. It has needed a new battery every 3 or 4 years on a lifetime deal from Timpsons.
I paid about £400 for a watch 30 years ago and it is still going strong.
That lifetime deal sounds great though! Do they still do them?
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Rolex now have a database of serial numbers that you have to use to confirm it's original. If you head off to replica forums you will see people checking literally everything down to 1/2 a mm...
It sounds a remarkable amount of faff for what's a mere status symbol. Rolex have pulled off a great con trick.
At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:
I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election
So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
You are making the mistake of thinking about Reform as a classic political party
They aren’t - they are simply an inchoate cry of rage channelled by one person.
Without Farage it all dissipates. I’m not sure that I’ve seen them doing the work to become a serious party
You haven't really been looking then. Their most recent law and order press conference, they've sent a letter to Yvette Cooper to demand she expedites the prosecution of the Manchester Airport attackers, who are currently wandering the streets unencumbered, and threatening a private prosecution if she doesn't. That's good policy and good politics.
Nah that’s standard stuff.
It’s the hard yards of organisation and structure that will determine whether they flourish long term or not. They may do - but I suspect they fizzle out when Farage decides he’s had enough (and at some point he will be old news - don’t forget that he’s been in the front line for 20(?) years now
What does that make the Tories who've been silent on this - substandard? *OK they get a bit of a pass for being admidst a leadership election.
At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:
I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election
So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
You are making the mistake of thinking about Reform as a classic political party
They aren’t - they are simply an inchoate cry of rage channelled by one person.
Without Farage it all dissipates. I’m not sure that I’ve seen them doing the work to become a serious party
You haven't really been looking then. Their most recent law and order press conference, they've sent a letter to Yvette Cooper to demand she expedites the prosecution of the Manchester Airport attackers, who are currently wandering the streets unencumbered, and threatening a private prosecution if she doesn't. That's good policy and good politics.
Nah that’s standard stuff.
It’s the hard yards of organisation and structure that will determine whether they flourish long term or not. They may do - but I suspect they fizzle out when Farage decides he’s had enough (and at some point he will be old news - don’t forget that he’s been in the front line for 20(?) years now
Are you aware of Zia Yusuf? If so what do you think - I'm very impressed.
"Sopel’s arched eyebrow over Trump’s America, especially on the BBC’s Americast podcast, won him many fans in Britain. But did it add to their understanding of what was happening there? His 40-page rehash of the January 6, 2021 riots at the US Capitol building in Strangeland (a book, remember, that is supposed to be about “Britishness”) is telling. He calls it “the most shocking day of my journalistic career”. The day ended with Sopel tweeting a picture of a glass of red wine to tell his followers he was “fine”."
Close competition with Justin Webb for worst BBC US correspondent ever.
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Rolex now have a database of serial numbers that you have to use to confirm it's original. If you head off to replica forums you will see people checking literally everything down to 1/2 a mm...
It sounds a remarkable amount of faff for what's a mere status symbol. Rolex have pulled off a great con trick.
Plus danger of being mugged ? Jeez.
They reportedly pay a million dollars a time for that one-second shot of the clock as the F1 grid moves off.
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Yep. The fakes are absolutely indistinguishable from the real ones now. But aside from the price, they don't come with the three year wait list (ADs *definitely* don't pass all their stock on to watch flippers who sell them at inflated prices and take a cut themselves).
What kind of perverse psycho stabs someone to death for a watch? Surely you just menace them with your blade until they hand it over?
Why kill?
It may be a good idea to plan for such an eventuality so the fleeting temptation to fight back doesn't spoil your day.
There is something a bit strange about that story. Three of them came out of a car and he immediately tried to run away, they caught him and stabbed him, then took his watch.
Yes. I sense an underlying story. Perhaps more than just a robbery
See this tiny detail:
"A fifth man, Antonios Kfoury, 23, was earlier found guilty of perverting the course of justice and subsequently received an 18-month custodial sentence."
If you do some digging, there are some shall we say inconsistencies.
Cleverly seems the obviously least bad option for the Tories.
I think he's a bit lazy and ineffective but he's a nice guy, fairly sensible and has a sense of humour so, for those reasons alone, if he makes the final two I'll probably vote for him.
At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:
I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election
So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
You are making the mistake of thinking about Reform as a classic political party
They aren’t - they are simply an inchoate cry of rage channelled by one person.
Without Farage it all dissipates. I’m not sure that I’ve seen them doing the work to become a serious party
You haven't really been looking then. Their most recent law and order press conference, they've sent a letter to Yvette Cooper to demand she expedites the prosecution of the Manchester Airport attackers, who are currently wandering the streets unencumbered, and threatening a private prosecution if she doesn't. That's good policy and good politics.
Nah that’s standard stuff.
It’s the hard yards of organisation and structure that will determine whether they flourish long term or not. They may do - but I suspect they fizzle out when Farage decides he’s had enough (and at some point he will be old news - don’t forget that he’s been in the front line for 20(?) years now
What does that make the Tories who've been silent on this - substandard? *OK they get a bit of a pass for being admidst a leadership election.
Not every party needs to jump at every opportunity. But the Tories are internally focused at the moment.
That said Reform needs to work harder to overcome the Tory incumbency advantage
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
Every time he checks it he gets to think about how clever he was (because he doesn’t value the additional mechanical benefits).
And if he had a cheap watch everyone would ask why
I had mentioned earlier that the two richest people I know wear Swatches.
Anyone knowledgeable about Italian business who can say of this is true ?
When I tell this story, all Americans 🇺🇸 and most British 🇬🇧 don’t believe me. Italy 🇮🇹 cannot have startups by design. This is due many items, starting with the untranslable “studio di settore”. The 🇮🇹 tax authorities assume that given x company assets you MUST make a profit 1/5.. https://x.com/aledeniz/status/1842872753499607407
If so, for heaven's sake don't tell Starmer, or this could be us in a couple of years...
Perhaps it is the latest YouGov national poll showing them level? But TIPP, also today, shows Kamala 3% ahead nationally. And Activote, also today, shows Kamala 2% ahead in North Carolina.
Only 4% of likely voters have not yet decided who to vote for. Of the decideds (inc already voted) Harris leads by 52 to 47. Trump leads with men by 5 pts. Harris leads with women by 15 pts. Harris leads by 5 with cat owners. With dog owners it's a tie. Trump has a big lead on immigration but not on the economy where she edges it. She leads on most other issues.
And here's one that surprised me. When asked what's the main driver of their vote only 8% picked "disgust with the other candidate" (10% of Harris voters and 5% of Trump's).
Perhaps people aren't keen to admit voting for negative reasons. Or perhaps things are not quite as bitter and riven as we keep hearing.
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
I think that's great (and thanks for the response also @FrancisUrquhart). It throws, or should throw into question the status of status symbols and branding. The most egregious of these ofc being diamonds.
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
Every time he checks it he gets to think about how clever he was (because he doesn’t value the additional mechanical benefits).
And if he had a cheap watch everyone would ask why
I had mentioned earlier that the two richest people I know wear Swatches.
Who wants to get mugged for an expensive watch? Even a replica could put you at risk.
At the risk of being told off by others for being another non-tory offering my unwanted views:
I've no idea how Cleverly would perform as LOTO - he does seem somewhat gaffe-prone - but he would surely be a more broadly appealing individual than Jenrick. He also went to my son's secondary school, so there's that.
He would have much less chance of winning over Reform voters than Jenrick though might do better with Labour voters
Isn't the risk for the Tories with Jenrick and Reform that he will just be seen as sucking up to them? If you're not a Farage fan then that's quite offputting, if you're already Reformy then why not go for the real thing? Being seen as a watered down understudy of a more right wing party destroyed the Lib Dems for several years. At least Badenoch would - I assume - argue with them. She's good at arguing.
Simply put, the Tories need at least half of those Reform voters. The alternative is that Reform will grow stronger and extinguish the Tories, possibly by the time of the next election
So Reform is the immediate and proximate danger, that has to be neutralised
Nope
How many seats did RefUK win?
How many seats did the Lib Dems win?
Which is bigger?
Except that parties are interested in voters, which are potentially directly transferable. And there are more Ref voters than Lib Dem voters. The present commons seat distribution is a sideshow.
Also, this election was probably high tide for the Lib Dems, particularly in seat terms. All the signs are that Reform will be growing strongly between now and 2028/9, particularly on the back of disaffected Labour votes.
Reform UK have the potential to grow, certainly, but they also have the potential to crash and burn. We’ve been here before with UKIP and growing electoral success for UKIP rapidly turned into infighting. Can RefUK scale up from the Nigel Farage show? Can they live up to expectations now they have seats in Parliament? I am confident the LibDems will still exist in 2028/9. I am not confident Reform UK will.
If Reform collapsed that would be a huge boost to the next Tory leader but I can only see that happening if they pick Jenrick or Badenoch to lead them
But why would Reform pick Jenrick or Badenoch ?
JRM and Truss would pick Farage,,, so I guess its even :-)
Cleverly seems the obviously least bad option for the Tories.
I think he's a bit lazy and ineffective but he's a nice guy, fairly sensible and has a sense of humour so, for those reasons alone, if he makes the final two I'll probably vote for him.
Doubt he'll change the world though.
lazy puts him in the same category as Cameron and Johnson... Conservatives would probably be over-joyed at that.
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
I think that's great (and thanks for the response also @FrancisUrquhart). It throws, or should throw into question the status of status symbols and branding. The most egregious of these ofc being diamonds.
I've tried to tell Mrs U all about how diamonds are all a con and all branding....there used to be that shopping channel flogging the "fake" diamonds, any suggestion that you know perhaps she might like one of those, stare of death. I was lucky I wasn't sent to be the envoy for nations and regions.
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
Every time he checks it he gets to think about how clever he was (because he doesn’t value the additional mechanical benefits).
And if he had a cheap watch everyone would ask why
I had mentioned earlier that the two richest people I know wear Swatches.
Who wants to get mugged for an expensive watch? Even a replica could put you at risk.
But people should be able to wear expensive watches/short skirts/etc without having to worry about being molested for the fact.
Anyone knowledgeable about Italian business who can say of this is true ?
When I tell this story, all Americans 🇺🇸 and most British 🇬🇧 don’t believe me. Italy 🇮🇹 cannot have startups by design. This is due many items, starting with the untranslable “studio di settore”. The 🇮🇹 tax authorities assume that given x company assets you MUST make a profit 1/5.. https://x.com/aledeniz/status/1842872753499607407
If so, for heaven's sake don't tell Starmer, or this could be us in a couple of years...
Until recently, starting a limited liability company in Germany required putting up €25000 in escrow so that any unpaid invoices would be covered when the company closed. Don't have €25000? Go get a job and save.
Cleverly seems the obviously least bad option for the Tories.
I think he's a bit lazy and ineffective but he's a nice guy, fairly sensible and has a sense of humour so, for those reasons alone, if he makes the final two I'll probably vote for him.
Doubt he'll change the world though.
lazy puts him in the same category as Cameron and Johnson... Conservatives would probably be over-joyed at that.
On the Hammerstein-Equord scale I'd put Cameron as lazy and clever, while Boris was lazy and stupid. So nearly harmless but not quite.
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Yep. The fakes are absolutely indistinguishable from the real ones now. But aside from the price, they don't come with the three year wait list (ADs *definitely* don't pass all their stock on to watch flippers who sell them at inflated prices and take a cut themselves).
What kind of perverse psycho stabs someone to death for a watch? Surely you just menace them with your blade until they hand it over?
Why kill?
It may be a good idea to plan for such an eventuality so the fleeting temptation to fight back doesn't spoil your day.
There is something a bit strange about that story. Three of them came out of a car and he immediately tried to run away, they caught him and stabbed him, then took his watch.
In the case it was said a member of the security at an event the murdered man was attending tipped off this gang. Its just a bit weird that you come out of an event and you instantly try and run away, and the robbers don't at least first say give us your watch.
Almost as if they’re trying to cover up a gang-related murder as a simple watch theft gone wrong…
Covered up by who? The police? The victim's family?
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Rolex now have a database of serial numbers that you have to use to confirm it's original. If you head off to replica forums you will see people checking literally everything down to 1/2 a mm...
It sounds a remarkable amount of faff for what's a mere status symbol. Rolex have pulled off a great con trick.
Plus danger of being mugged ? Jeez.
They reportedly pay a million dollars a time for that one-second shot of the clock as the F1 grid moves off.
Some years ago I was using a watch which didn’t seem to like being changed for different time zones, and I was going to Bangkok every 18 months or so. So, while in Bangkok I found a guy who sold cheap watches and every time I went I found his stall and bought another watch for £1.50 or so. They kept excellent time and of course when the battery ran out I was home so didn’t bother. I’ve now got half a dozen Thai watches worth probably £8.
Perhaps it is the latest YouGov national poll showing them level? But TIPP, also today, shows Kamala 3% ahead nationally. And Activote, also today, shows Kamala 2% ahead in North Carolina.
Only 4% of likely voters have not yet decided who to vote for. Of the decideds (inc already voted) Harris leads by 52 to 47. Trump leads with men by 5 pts. Harris leads with women by 15 pts. Harris leads by 5 with cat owners. With dog owners it's a tie. Trump has a big lead on immigration but not on the economy where she edges it. She leads on most other issues.
And here's one that surprised me. When asked what's the main driver of their vote only 8% picked "disgust with the other candidate" (10% of Harris voters and 5% of Trump's).
Perhaps people aren't keen to admit voting for negative reasons. Or perhaps things are not quite as bitter and riven as we keep hearing.
Yes - that's the ResearchCo poll. The other poll today is YouGov showing them level. But Activote shows Harris 2% ahead in N Carolina, which is good.
All to play for.
I wonder if the polls are distorted by some wives of MAGA men unwilling to disclose their intention to vote for Kamala to pollsters? Or am I clutching at straws?
Anyone knowledgeable about Italian business who can say of this is true ?
When I tell this story, all Americans 🇺🇸 and most British 🇬🇧 don’t believe me. Italy 🇮🇹 cannot have startups by design. This is due many items, starting with the untranslable “studio di settore”. The 🇮🇹 tax authorities assume that given x company assets you MUST make a profit 1/5.. https://x.com/aledeniz/status/1842872753499607407
If so, for heaven's sake don't tell Starmer, or this could be us in a couple of years...
Until recently, starting a limited liability company in Germany required putting up €25000 in escrow so that any unpaid invoices would be covered when the company closed. Don't have €25000? Go get a job and save.
Thankfully, that has changed.
One of the things the Tax Gap loonies were advocating was minimum profit tax.
That is, start a business, you pay at least x tax. Because all businesses make money from day one.
A full bus on its side is very bad. Its a major incident... not going to be cuts and bruises, unfortunately.
Eeesh
I've had my fill of terrible news. Enough for a whole lifetime, frankly
Police calling it "very serious." Asking you only to call 999 if your life is in danger. Not cheery. Have you ever tried to get a bus full of kids to wear seatbelts?
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
Cleverly seems the obviously least bad option for the Tories.
I think he's a bit lazy and ineffective but he's a nice guy, fairly sensible and has a sense of humour so, for those reasons alone, if he makes the final two I'll probably vote for him.
Doubt he'll change the world though.
Yeah that seems right but for all the reasons you cite he seems like their best bet. I can't see the public taking to Jenrick, who just comes over like a bit of a bad egg. Badenoch is too abrasive and needs to grow up a bit I think. Tugendhat just seems a bit wet and I think would have to spend his whole time trying to act like he's more right wing than he is, undermining his authenticity. Cleverly is a bit meh but seems normal. Won't set the world on fire but is a safe pair of hands and could be well placed if Labour can't turn things around by 2029.
"Sopel’s arched eyebrow over Trump’s America, especially on the BBC’s Americast podcast, won him many fans in Britain. But did it add to their understanding of what was happening there? His 40-page rehash of the January 6, 2021 riots at the US Capitol building in Strangeland (a book, remember, that is supposed to be about “Britishness”) is telling. He calls it “the most shocking day of my journalistic career”. The day ended with Sopel tweeting a picture of a glass of red wine to tell his followers he was “fine”."
Close competition with Justin Webb for worst BBC US correspondent ever.
I may be very wrong but both of them seem to be sneering metropolitan liberals who cannot understand any viewpoint that is not their own. Hence Brexit would be a disaster, they cannot conceive of anyone voting for Trump etc. Not great to be so closed minded in someone purporting to be a reporter of a great nation like the USA.
Webb's politics are distinctly right of centre. The vibe with him isn't sneery metro liberal it's dense rugger bugger.
Anyone knowledgeable about Italian business who can say of this is true ?
When I tell this story, all Americans 🇺🇸 and most British 🇬🇧 don’t believe me. Italy 🇮🇹 cannot have startups by design. This is due many items, starting with the untranslable “studio di settore”. The 🇮🇹 tax authorities assume that given x company assets you MUST make a profit 1/5.. https://x.com/aledeniz/status/1842872753499607407
If so, for heaven's sake don't tell Starmer, or this could be us in a couple of years...
Until recently, starting a limited liability company in Germany required putting up €25000 in escrow so that any unpaid invoices would be covered when the company closed. Don't have €25000? Go get a job and save.
Thankfully, that has changed.
One of the things the Tax Gap loonies were advocating was minimum profit tax.
That is, start a business, you pay at least x tax. Because all businesses make money from day one.
A lot of people don't really grasp what making a loss means. They think it's making less profit. "Why can't supermarkets cut prices by 20% to help people out? Ok, they'd make a little less profit but...."
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
I think that's great (and thanks for the response also @FrancisUrquhart). It throws, or should throw into question the status of status symbols and branding. The most egregious of these ofc being diamonds.
I've tried to tell Mrs U all about how diamonds are all a con and all branding....there used to be that shopping channel flogging the "fake" diamonds, any suggestion that you know perhaps she might like one of those, stare of death. I was lucky I wasn't sent to be the envoy for nations and regions.
I got lucky that mine actually understands the jewellery market a little, so after the one carat for the big occasion a decade ago she’s now much happier with receiving gifts of gold.
Anyone knowledgeable about Italian business who can say of this is true ?
When I tell this story, all Americans 🇺🇸 and most British 🇬🇧 don’t believe me. Italy 🇮🇹 cannot have startups by design. This is due many items, starting with the untranslable “studio di settore”. The 🇮🇹 tax authorities assume that given x company assets you MUST make a profit 1/5.. https://x.com/aledeniz/status/1842872753499607407
If so, for heaven's sake don't tell Starmer, or this could be us in a couple of years...
Until recently, starting a limited liability company in Germany required putting up €25000 in escrow so that any unpaid invoices would be covered when the company closed. Don't have €25000? Go get a job and save.
Thankfully, that has changed.
One of the things the Tax Gap loonies were advocating was minimum profit tax.
That is, start a business, you pay at least x tax. Because all businesses make money from day one.
That sounds more or less the Italian system, as described by that thread. Terrifying.
Comments
(e-bikes when they metamorphose into illegal e-motorcycles using the DuraAce mod, certainly)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCA8ucYWAEw
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
https://x.com/themagic_tophat/status/1843296743632556215
#1 gets nominated - can’t do it because he is picking up the dog from the vet or something…
Then #2… increasingly implausible excuses
Until you end up with the tea boy…
But we should have asked them, first
It's what France does. The people of Mayotte voted to become part of France
https://conservativehome.com/2024/10/02/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-cleverly-surges-ahead-to-two-supporters/
It will be interesting to see how that impact Reform next time around.
Instead they will have some vague rights to go to the atolls but be run by a tiny island-nation in hock to China, which could at any moment decide to move them all off again and let the Chinese build fishing ports, and so on
Plus, their pristine oceans will be plundered
Plus, you can still be killed for wearing a fake one - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpe0z59kp00o
IMO This war is going raze a beautiful land, radicalise the Lebanese and will further isolate Israel particularly from the EU. We can see France drifting and this is before Beirut gets the full mk84 treatment and only a few of its hospitals have been Bibied.
Why kill?
The arrangements negotiated worked in terms of One Country, Two Systems until Zi tore everything up.
In particular, keeping the police and courts kept the Chinese State at bay for a long time after the handover.
How you run a private prosecution when you haven't got the evidence is going to be interesting to watch - were I Yvette I would tell Reform to get on and do it for the Lols because it would fail hopelessly..
Harris 51%
Trump 49%
https://www.activote.net/harris-has-small-lead-in-north-carolina/
I doubt the California figures make much difference, nationally if Harris is ahead by 3%+ she almost certainly wins, less than that and Trump probably has the advantage. Though she is doing better in swing states like NC than Hillary did
"Reports suggest that an #IDF airstrike just eliminated Naim Qassem, #Hezbollah’s number 2 figure. #Lebanon #Israel"
https://x.com/WarRoomME/status/1843313654248472645
Rolex turnover £13bn pa apparently (wiki), which is more than I expected. 30k employees.
I'm quite amused by the slogan of the Rolex founder. Nothing about quality
"Hans Wilsdorf (22 March 1881 – 6 July 1960) was a German businessman, best known as the founder of Rolex and Tudor. Wilsdorf's philosophy for the companies was "only great marketing is needed to make a company successful".
In the case it was said a member of the security at an event the murdered man was attending tipped off this gang. Its just a bit weird that you come out of an event and you instantly try and run away, and the robbers don't at least first say give us your watch.
It may have been worth six figures, but it was the sponsor’s watch not his own.
See this tiny detail:
"A fifth man, Antonios Kfoury, 23, was earlier found guilty of perverting the course of justice and subsequently received an 18-month custodial sentence."
The Northern Ireland Ambulance Service (NIAS) has declared a major incident following a school bus crash in county Down.
Police and emergency services are currently at the scene at Ballyblack Road East in Newtownards.
It is understood up to 70 passengers were on board but the details of casualties are not yet clear.
Pictures on social media show the vehicle on its side in a field having left the road.
The road is closed and motorists are asked to avoid the area.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cglk8lgkzd6o
The last time I did long haul Business Class was from the UK to Australia and back pre-COVID - £1500. Dubai to Oz was in an A380; nice beds, and a nice lounge in Dubai.
Which was a big discount, but supports your statement.
Yeah, biz class on the A380 is rather lovely. Only done it once.
One prays that is the case
I don't think their piss poorness has much to do with their being liberals, sneering or otherwise.
It’s the hard yards of organisation and structure that will determine whether they flourish long term or not. They may do - but I suspect they fizzle out when Farage decides he’s had enough (and at some point he will be old news - don’t forget that he’s been in the front line for 20(?) years now
Rolex have pulled off a great con trick.
Plus danger of being mugged ? Jeez.
Doubt he'll change the world though.
That said Reform needs to work harder to overcome the Tory incumbency advantage
When I tell this story, all Americans 🇺🇸 and most British 🇬🇧 don’t believe me.
Italy 🇮🇹 cannot have startups by design. This is due many items, starting with the untranslable “studio di settore”.
The 🇮🇹 tax authorities assume that given x company assets you MUST make a profit 1/5..
https://x.com/aledeniz/status/1842872753499607407
If so, for heaven's sake don't tell Starmer, or this could be us in a couple of years...
https://researchco.ca/2024/10/07/us-nationwide-oct2024/
Some notables:
Only 4% of likely voters have not yet decided who to vote for. Of the decideds (inc already voted) Harris leads by 52 to 47. Trump leads with men by 5 pts. Harris leads with women by 15 pts. Harris leads by 5 with cat owners. With dog owners it's a tie. Trump has a big lead on immigration but not on the economy where she edges it. She leads on most other issues.
And here's one that surprised me. When asked what's the main driver of their vote only 8% picked "disgust with the other candidate" (10% of Harris voters and 5% of Trump's).
Perhaps people aren't keen to admit voting for negative reasons. Or perhaps things are not quite as bitter and riven as we keep hearing.
Even a replica could put you at risk.
Clearly the citizens of the USA can see what you can see. I am afraid I can't.
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1843193788518260815?t=pK9wPDaq3XyCp_7rIy1mPg&s=19
Thankfully, that has changed.
I've had my fill of terrible news. Enough for a whole lifetime, frankly
Vardy: £1.8m for Rooney's lawyers is too much - why should I be charged for the Nobu hotel and alcoholic drinks?
(Original costs budget was ~£540k.)
Rooney: You took the legal action, sweetheart.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g53vxjlpjo
All to play for.
I wonder if the polls are distorted by some wives of MAGA men unwilling to disclose their intention to vote for Kamala to pollsters? Or am I clutching at straws?
That is, start a business, you pay at least x tax. Because all businesses make money from day one.
Asking you only to call 999 if your life is in danger.
Not cheery. Have you ever tried to get a bus full of kids to wear seatbelts?
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/
...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate.
The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact.
Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
There are only so many thoughts available to one on any given day.
Terrifying.