Climate "modelling" - on a par accuracy wise with Ferguson's COVID mortality modelling I'm sure..🧐😏
If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border, which side do you bury the survivors?
Is it Saturday already
I think SonofContrarian has been around a while. My assumption was that he was a reboot of Contrarian. Who was many things, but not, I don't think, a Putinbot.
I am trying to look at flats in London to buy. Each time I call up a large corporate estate agent chain to arrange a viewing a process starts where I have a 30 min 'registration' session where they take sensitive and personal details about my financial position, and then I get asked to agree to an appointment with an in-house mortgage broker. After all that is concluded they say someone will call me back to arrange a viewing, and then they never do. This is despite the fact I am a serious buyer and it is supposedly a 'buyers market'. What kind of business model is this? Why would anyone list a property with these agents and how can they sell them when this is how they deal with customers?
Why would you hand over that information? Stand your ground.
Absolutely. Same applies to anyone after your personal details.
I won't even tell Twitter my age. I don't get to see all those X links as a result.
I am trying to look at flats in London to buy. Each time I call up a large corporate estate agent chain to arrange a viewing a process starts where I have a 30 min 'registration' session where they take sensitive and personal details about my financial position, and then I get asked to agree to an appointment with an in-house mortgage broker. After all that is concluded they say someone will call me back to arrange a viewing, and then they never do. This is despite the fact I am a serious buyer and it is supposedly a 'buyers market'. What kind of business model is this? Why would anyone list a property with these agents and how can they sell them when this is how they deal with customers?
Why would you hand over that information? Stand your ground.
You have to give an answer to see the property, they seem to do this as a form of 'gatekeeping',.
However, if they were just trying to get access to the property, someone could easily manipulate the whole process by lying and giving false information, so the whole thing seems to have no real purpose.
It's weird. I have a friend, doing fine, old money, few thousand acres blah, blah who, when he was in Shanghai, went specifically to whichever (well-known) knock off market it is to have an exact replica of some kind of smart watch made. It's got a fancy movement so is as accurate as, er, a watch, and costs about £500 to look (exactly) like something that costs about £5,000.
I do have to ask (but didn't ask him) what was the point.
The latest Chinese copies are basically a clone of an actual Rolex, complete with a copy of the movement (and packaging!), not a fancy face plate with a quartz watch behind it.
It’s almost impossible to tell them apart until you put them next to each other, you could probably fool second-hand watch dealers in many parts of the world.
Rolex now have a database of serial numbers that you have to use to confirm it's original. If you head off to replica forums you will see people checking literally everything down to 1/2 a mm...
It sounds a remarkable amount of faff for what's a mere status symbol. Rolex have pulled off a great con trick.
Plus danger of being mugged ? Jeez.
Don't all luxury brands ultimately come down to a con? They're not really scarce and even if very high quality you could get the same quality for less, but we want the brand.
Yes. Generally speaking the companies with the highest profit margins are those selling luxury goods, because their brand value means they can charge a large premium over the cost of production.
The interesting one to look at in that respect is the companies behind skincare products who not only make a huge profit margin, but about half their costs are the advertising that creates their brand value.
It's not just luxury goods.
7 out of the top 10 big pharma companies spend more on marketing than on R&D. And by a long way -
Johnson and Johnson spending $22bn on marketing vs $12bn on R&D for example. For GSK, the figure is $15bn on marketing vs $7bn on R&D.
And you wonder why I buy the generic paracetamol...
This is why I would ban advertising. It is a huge distortion on the operation of a free market and leads to enormous misallocation of resources.
I'm a libertarian so, ideologically, I can't get behind a ban. But to your point that it distorts the free market and results in enormous misallocation of resources, I entirely agree.
The question is whether those distortions would exist even without marketing spend behind them. Levis jeans selling at a premium in Soviet Russia, for example.
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Climate "modelling" - on a par accuracy wise with Ferguson's COVID mortality modelling I'm sure..🧐😏
If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border, which side do you bury the survivors?
Is it Saturday already
I think SonofContrarian has been around a while. My assumption was that he was a reboot of Contrarian. Who was many things, but not, I don't think, a Putinbot.
What a moron, why do politicians come out with these kinds of statements that are so easily disproven.
Because he's just said 'tax credit' to refer to the credits low income families get that the name of was changed to tax credit and expanded. The Family Credit was introduced when he was 14, while that itself replaced the Family Income Supplement, which was introduced before he was born.
It's a bit like if he said 'I used to love Snickers as a child' when it was called a 'Marathon' then. Not strictly true but any fair person knows what he meant.
I mean, are people going on about a single tweet from ten years ago, where David Lammy confused two benefits that were essentially the same?
I am trying to look at flats in London to buy. Each time I call up a large corporate estate agent chain to arrange a viewing a process starts where I have a 30 min 'registration' session where they take sensitive and personal details about my financial position, and then I get asked to agree to an appointment with an in-house mortgage broker. After all that is concluded they say someone will call me back to arrange a viewing, and then they never do. This is despite the fact I am a serious buyer and it is supposedly a 'buyers market'. What kind of business model is this? Why would anyone list a property with these agents and how can they sell them when this is how they deal with customers?
Why would you hand over that information? Stand your ground.
You have to give an answer to see the property, they seem to do this as a form of 'gatekeeping',.
However, if they were just trying to get access to the property, someone could easily manipulate the whole process by lying and giving false information, so the whole thing seems to have no real purpose.
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Even if they are, it's nearly impossible to judge beforehand what someone will be like as leader. Sure, there's reasons to be hopeful or skeptical of a particular candidate, but the step up changes everything and it's also about responding to the unforeseen.
Perhaps it is the latest YouGov national poll showing them level? But TIPP, also today, shows Kamala 3% ahead nationally. And Activote, also today, shows Kamala 2% ahead in North Carolina.
Only 4% of likely voters have not yet decided who to vote for. Of the decideds (inc already voted) Harris leads by 52 to 47. Trump leads with men by 5 pts. Harris leads with women by 15 pts. Harris leads by 5 with cat owners. With dog owners it's a tie. Trump has a big lead on immigration but not on the economy where she edges it. She leads on most other issues.
And here's one that surprised me. When asked what's the main driver of their vote only 8% picked "disgust with the other candidate" (10% of Harris voters and 5% of Trump's).
Perhaps people aren't keen to admit voting for negative reasons. Or perhaps things are not quite as bitter and riven as we keep hearing.
Yes - that's the ResearchCo poll. The other poll today is YouGov showing them level. But Activote shows Harris 2% ahead in N Carolina, which is good.
All to play for.
I wonder if the polls are distorted by some wives of MAGA men unwilling to disclose their intention to vote for Kamala to pollsters? Or am I clutching at straws?
That's not a thing I'm putting much store by tbh. Overall, it's closer than I'd like 4 weeks out but she is 2 or 3 pts ahead on the averages, looks good for MI and WI, bang there for PA, NV, NC, and competitive in GA and AZ.
Trump has the harder path. He has to flip the Sunbelt states to take it to the Rustbelt and then needs PA. She can do an either/or and if she flips NC she probably doesn't need PA. Close, yes, but I'd have taken this back in the summer when it was still Biden and Trump was looking nailed on.
I still think she'll win comfortably fwiw.
Will winning be enough? Ridiculous it needs asking in a longstanding democracy.
Cleverly seems the obviously least bad option for the Tories.
I think he's a bit lazy and ineffective but he's a nice guy, fairly sensible and has a sense of humour so, for those reasons alone, if he makes the final two I'll probably vote for him.
Doubt he'll change the world though.
Yeah that seems right but for all the reasons you cite he seems like their best bet. I can't see the public taking to Jenrick, who just comes over like a bit of a bad egg. Badenoch is too abrasive and needs to grow up a bit I think. Tugendhat just seems a bit wet and I think would have to spend his whole time trying to act like he's more right wing than he is, undermining his authenticity. Cleverly is a bit meh but seems normal. Won't set the world on fire but is a safe pair of hands and could be well placed if Labour can't turn things around by 2029.
Agreed. Cleverly is clearly the sensible, moderate choice. It would seem out of character for the Tories to make such a wise selection, but who knows, perhaps they have learned their lessons after the TRUSS and BORIS fiascos?
Is the sensible moderate choice actually the right move at this time? Serious question. Does it store up some arguments and do they need to take a bigger risk?
Given the 'risky' choices are Jenrick (odious twit) and Kemi (Truss v2)...
What a moron, why do politicians come out with these kinds of statements that are so easily disproven.
Because he's just said 'tax credit' to refer to the credits low income families get that the name of was changed to tax credit and expanded. The Family Credit was introduced when he was 14, while that itself replaced the Family Income Supplement, which was introduced before he was born.
It's a bit like if he said 'I used to love Snickers as a child' when it was called a 'Marathon' then. Not strictly true but any fair person knows what he meant.
Economical with the truth morelike coupled with being thick as two short planks
I am trying to look at flats in London to buy. Each time I call up a large corporate estate agent chain to arrange a viewing a process starts where I have a 30 min 'registration' session where they take sensitive and personal details about my financial position, and then I get asked to agree to an appointment with an in-house mortgage broker. After all that is concluded they say someone will call me back to arrange a viewing, and then they never do. This is despite the fact I am a serious buyer and it is supposedly a 'buyers market'. What kind of business model is this? Why would anyone list a property with these agents and how can they sell them when this is how they deal with customers?
Why would you hand over that information? Stand your ground.
You have to give an answer to see the property, they seem to do this as a form of 'gatekeeping',.
However, if they were just trying to get access to the property, someone could easily manipulate the whole process by lying and giving false information, so the whole thing seems to have no real purpose.
I would just tell the agent you are a cash buyer.
That would work, but surely it would be better just to refuse to deal with a dodgy trader.
I am trying to look at flats in London to buy. Each time I call up a large corporate estate agent chain to arrange a viewing a process starts where I have a 30 min 'registration' session where they take sensitive and personal details about my financial position, and then I get asked to agree to an appointment with an in-house mortgage broker. After all that is concluded they say someone will call me back to arrange a viewing, and then they never do. This is despite the fact I am a serious buyer and it is supposedly a 'buyers market'. What kind of business model is this? Why would anyone list a property with these agents and how can they sell them when this is how they deal with customers?
Why would you hand over that information? Stand your ground.
You have to give an answer to see the property, they seem to do this as a form of 'gatekeeping',.
However, if they were just trying to get access to the property, someone could easily manipulate the whole process by lying and giving false information, so the whole thing seems to have no real purpose.
I suspect it's to keep out nosey people who just like to look around other people's homes. It is surprisingly common.
All I'll offer on the Conservative leadership election is the MPs are voting for someone to lead them as well as the party and possibly the country. The Party leader is also the Parliamentary leader and I would think MPs are looking for who can make the best impact in the Commons.
The best leader in the Commons isn't always the best leader for the party in the country or even for those seeking to be brought back into the Conservative fold.
I am trying to look at flats in London to buy. Each time I call up a large corporate estate agent chain to arrange a viewing a process starts where I have a 30 min 'registration' session where they take sensitive and personal details about my financial position, and then I get asked to agree to an appointment with an in-house mortgage broker. After all that is concluded they say someone will call me back to arrange a viewing, and then they never do. This is despite the fact I am a serious buyer and it is supposedly a 'buyers market'. What kind of business model is this? Why would anyone list a property with these agents and how can they sell them when this is how they deal with customers?
Why would you hand over that information? Stand your ground.
You have to give an answer to see the property, they seem to do this as a form of 'gatekeeping',.
However, if they were just trying to get access to the property, someone could easily manipulate the whole process by lying and giving false information, so the whole thing seems to have no real purpose.
I am trying to look at flats in London to buy. Each time I call up a large corporate estate agent chain to arrange a viewing a process starts where I have a 30 min 'registration' session where they take sensitive and personal details about my financial position, and then I get asked to agree to an appointment with an in-house mortgage broker. After all that is concluded they say someone will call me back to arrange a viewing, and then they never do. This is despite the fact I am a serious buyer and it is supposedly a 'buyers market'. What kind of business model is this? Why would anyone list a property with these agents and how can they sell them when this is how they deal with customers?
Why would you hand over that information? Stand your ground.
You have to give an answer to see the property, they seem to do this as a form of 'gatekeeping',.
However, if they were just trying to get access to the property, someone could easily manipulate the whole process by lying and giving false information, so the whole thing seems to have no real purpose.
I would just tell the agent you are a cash buyer.
You probably shouldn't do this, but I'd be tempted to stick a note through the door of the property in question explaining why I wasn't able to consider it - the vendor may not be aware of the agent's practices.
“I’ve probably seen him, but I don’t pay much attention to other countries,” said 69-year-old Doug Campbell.
The former welder and maintenance man had been at the Butler event when Trump was shot, and was eager to return for the second coming.'..Before Trump disappeared and the homeward rush began, POLITICO at last found one person, hobbling along in the twilight, who had heard of Farage: Patrick Mangan.
“His movement in getting out of the European Union was the same kind of populist movement we’re having here right now,” said the 66-year-old former political adviser.
Mangan’s “Keep America Great” polo shirt stretched around his stomach. “Jesus is my savior; Trump is my president,” his cap proclaimed. He leaned deep on his crutch and warned about the threat of civil war if the election is “stolen” from Trump.
But his message to Farage was one of reassurance: “The great populist movements of Trump, in South America, and in Europe, are alive and well.”
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Tory members have never voted for a general election loser, since 2001 they have picked IDS, Cameron, Johnson and Truss none of whom lost a general election.
It was Tory MPs alone who picked Hague, Howard, May and Sunak
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Tory members have never voted for a general election loser, since 2001 they have picked IDS, Cameron, Johnson and Truss none of whom lost a general election.
It was Tory MPs alone who picked Hague, Howard, May and Sunak
I am trying to look at flats in London to buy. Each time I call up a large corporate estate agent chain to arrange a viewing a process starts where I have a 30 min 'registration' session where they take sensitive and personal details about my financial position, and then I get asked to agree to an appointment with an in-house mortgage broker. After all that is concluded they say someone will call me back to arrange a viewing, and then they never do. This is despite the fact I am a serious buyer and it is supposedly a 'buyers market'. What kind of business model is this? Why would anyone list a property with these agents and how can they sell them when this is how they deal with customers?
Why would you hand over that information? Stand your ground.
You have to give an answer to see the property, they seem to do this as a form of 'gatekeeping',.
However, if they were just trying to get access to the property, someone could easily manipulate the whole process by lying and giving false information, so the whole thing seems to have no real purpose.
I would just tell the agent you are a cash buyer.
That would work, but surely it would be better just to refuse to deal with a dodgy trader.
You want to see as many flats as possible. That some agents are shits is not news. Limiting your search to properties where the agents are not shits severely disadvantages you.
Cleverly's strategy I think would be to hold the fort, sound sensible, not alienate anyone and do nothing rash while he waits for Starmer, Farage, and eventually the Lib Dems, to crumble into dust. It's not a bad strategy for a fractious party with few good options, but I doubt those taking part in the selection would find it particularly compelling.
So it is like Starmers approach to opposition... but that only worked because the government were in chaos.
Yes, but all things being equal Labour should win the next election and would probably only not do so if it does descend into the kind of chaos you're talking about.
Also something Starmer was good at, and Cleverly could replicate, is to maximise the opportunities the opposition give you.
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Tory members have never voted for a general election loser, since 2001 they have picked IDS, Cameron, Johnson and Truss none of whom lost a general election.
It was Tory MPs alone who picked Hague, Howard, May and Sunak
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Tory members have never voted for a general election loser, since 2001 they have picked IDS, Cameron, Johnson and Truss none of whom lost a general election.
It was Tory MPs alone who picked Hague, Howard, May and Sunak
IDS and Truss didn't fight a GE
What on earth are you talking about
Facts, they never fought a GE so Tory members can correctly state they never picked a general election loser as Howard was the loser in 2005 and Rishi the loser in 2024 not IDS or Truss
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Tory members have never voted for a general election loser, since 2001 they have picked IDS, Cameron, Johnson and Truss none of whom lost a general election.
It was Tory MPs alone who picked Hague, Howard, May and Sunak
IDS and Truss didn't fight a GE
What on earth are you talking about
Facts, they never fought a GE so Tory members can correctly state they never picked a general election loser as Howard was the loser in 2005 and Rishi the loser in 2024 not IDS or Truss
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Tory members have never voted for a general election loser, since 2001 they have picked IDS, Cameron, Johnson and Truss none of whom lost a general election.
It was Tory MPs alone who picked Hague, Howard, May and Sunak
IDS and Truss didn't fight a GE
What on earth are you talking about
Facts, they never fought a GE so Tory members can correctly state they never picked a general election loser as Howard was the loser in 2005 and Rishi the loser in 2024 not IDS or Truss
Utter childish nonsense
Still true though.
Labour MPs alone equally picked Brown and Foot, while Labour members picked Starmer and Blair even if they also picked Corbyn (Ed Miliband was the choice of neither but the unions).
The argument MPs are better picks of general election vote winners than party members has very little evidence for it. The most you can say is MPs can sometimes pick more capable PMs in power
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Tory members have never voted for a general election loser, since 2001 they have picked IDS, Cameron, Johnson and Truss none of whom lost a general election.
It was Tory MPs alone who picked Hague, Howard, May and Sunak
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Tory members have never voted for a general election loser, since 2001 they have picked IDS, Cameron, Johnson and Truss none of whom lost a general election.
It was Tory MPs alone who picked Hague, Howard, May and Sunak
IDS and Truss didn't fight a GE
What on earth are you talking about
Facts, they never fought a GE so Tory members can correctly state they never picked a general election loser as Howard was the loser in 2005 and Rishi the loser in 2024 not IDS or Truss
Utter childish nonsense
Still true though.
Labour MPs alone equally picked Brown and Foot, while Labour members picked Starmer and Blair even if they also picked Corbyn (Ed Miliband was the choice of neither but the unions).
The argument MPs are better picks of general election vote winners than party members has very little evidence for it. The most you can say is MPs can sometimes pick more capable PMs in power
You make a perfectly sound and informative point. The assumption the members are madder than the MPs, and make worse choices, is simplistic
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Tory members have never voted for a general election loser, since 2001 they have picked IDS, Cameron, Johnson and Truss none of whom lost a general election.
It was Tory MPs alone who picked Hague, Howard, May and Sunak
IDS and Truss didn't fight a GE
What on earth are you talking about
It was a rare HYUFD joke I believe, all the better for being technically true.
It looks increasingly likely that Israel's war across the middle east will soon mean directly attacking Iran. Presumably targeting the nuclear facilities or the IRGC. Strangely I'm more comfortable with this than bombing Beirut.
No-one seems to want to take direct action against Iran. Yet no-one seems to have a strategy for deterring them either.
It looks increasingly likely that Israel's war across the middle east will soon mean directly attacking Iran. Presumably targeting the nuclear facilities or the IRGC. Strangely I'm more comfortable with this than bombing Beirut.
No-one seems to want to take direct action against Iran. Yet no-one seems to have a strategy for deterring them either.
Maybe this is a rare case where First Strike makes sense
Here's my post of the day to illustrate a change of narrative incoming re mortgage rates. Anything sub 4% surely is going to be pulled very shortly
2 yr is similar
It seems to me, as a relatively detached and ignorant observer, that the current policy of the BoE is not simply to announce a base rate change when timely but to issue occasional gobbets of speculation such as this:
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Tory members have never voted for a general election loser, since 2001 they have picked IDS, Cameron, Johnson and Truss none of whom lost a general election.
It was Tory MPs alone who picked Hague, Howard, May and Sunak
IDS and Truss didn't fight a GE
What on earth are you talking about
It was a rare HYUFD joke I believe, all the better for being technically true.
Well Theresa May won the 2017 election, Betfair paid out on such a happenstance.
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Tory members have never voted for a general election loser, since 2001 they have picked IDS, Cameron, Johnson and Truss none of whom lost a general election.
It was Tory MPs alone who picked Hague, Howard, May and Sunak
IDS and Truss didn't fight a GE
What on earth are you talking about
Facts, they never fought a GE so Tory members can correctly state they never picked a general election loser as Howard was the loser in 2005 and Rishi the loser in 2024 not IDS or Truss
Utter childish nonsense
Still true though.
Labour MPs alone equally picked Brown and Foot, while Labour members picked Starmer and Blair even if they also picked Corbyn (Ed Miliband was the choice of neither but the unions).
The argument MPs are better picks of general election vote winners than party members has very little evidence for it. The most you can say is MPs can sometimes pick more capable PMs in power
You make a perfectly sound and informative point. The assumption the members are madder than the MPs, and make worse choices, is simplistic
There's a belief either the madder members don't get selected (in general) or the realities of being an MP force them to be a bit more reflective and savvy.
I can believe it's true of the average MP vs the average member, but even so it doesn't mean they're any better at picking a winner.
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Tory members have never voted for a general election loser, since 2001 they have picked IDS, Cameron, Johnson and Truss none of whom lost a general election.
It was Tory MPs alone who picked Hague, Howard, May and Sunak
IDS and Truss didn't fight a GE
What on earth are you talking about
It was a rare HYUFD joke I believe, all the better for being technically true.
Well Theresa May won the 2017 election, Betfair paid out on such a happenstance.
Right wing media lies, I am sure. Read it in the canary and novara media.
It looks increasingly likely that Israel's war across the middle east will soon mean directly attacking Iran. Presumably targeting the nuclear facilities or the IRGC. Strangely I'm more comfortable with this than bombing Beirut.
No-one seems to want to take direct action against Iran. Yet no-one seems to have a strategy for deterring them either.
Maybe this is a rare case where First Strike makes sense
Ultimately, it's take on Iran now, when they might have one or two bombs but no practical means of delivery. Vs taking them on in a year or two, when they have a credible first strike capability.
This is of course why the US tuts in public but in private backs Israel. Better that someone else does the dirty work.
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Tory members have never voted for a general election loser, since 2001 they have picked IDS, Cameron, Johnson and Truss none of whom lost a general election.
It was Tory MPs alone who picked Hague, Howard, May and Sunak
IDS and Truss didn't fight a GE
What on earth are you talking about
Facts, they never fought a GE so Tory members can correctly state they never picked a general election loser as Howard was the loser in 2005 and Rishi the loser in 2024 not IDS or Truss
Utter childish nonsense
Still true though.
Labour MPs alone equally picked Brown and Foot, while Labour members picked Starmer and Blair even if they also picked Corbyn (Ed Miliband was the choice of neither but the unions).
The argument MPs are better picks of general election vote winners than party members has very little evidence for it. The most you can say is MPs can sometimes pick more capable PMs in power
You make a perfectly sound and informative point. The assumption the members are madder than the MPs, and make worse choices, is simplistic
There's a belief either the madder members don't get selected (in general) or the realities of being an MP force them to be a bit more reflective and savvy.
I can believe it's true of the average MP vs the average member, but even so it doesn't mean they're any better at picking a winner.
Indeed
Fucking idiotic Labour MPs put Corbyn on the ballot. I do not believe Labour members - as they were then, pre -Corbyn and pre-Momentum - would have done anything so stupid. That one decision has toxified British politics for a decade. Labour became treacherous quasi-Marxists, once again
Also: the wisdom of crowds. The members may be a bit flaky, but there are lots of them. A crowd has a wisdom denied the individual
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Tory members have never voted for a general election loser, since 2001 they have picked IDS, Cameron, Johnson and Truss none of whom lost a general election.
It was Tory MPs alone who picked Hague, Howard, May and Sunak
IDS and Truss didn't fight a GE
What on earth are you talking about
Facts, they never fought a GE so Tory members can correctly state they never picked a general election loser as Howard was the loser in 2005 and Rishi the loser in 2024 not IDS or Truss
Utter childish nonsense
Still true though.
Labour MPs alone equally picked Brown and Foot, while Labour members picked Starmer and Blair even if they also picked Corbyn (Ed Miliband was the choice of neither but the unions).
The argument MPs are better picks of general election vote winners than party members has very little evidence for it. The most you can say is MPs can sometimes pick more capable PMs in power
You make a perfectly sound and informative point. The assumption the members are madder than the MPs, and make worse choices, is simplistic
There's a belief either the madder members don't get selected (in general) or the realities of being an MP force them to be a bit more reflective and savvy.
I can believe it's true of the average MP vs the average member, but even so it doesn't mean they're any better at picking a winner.
Indeed
Fucking idiotic Labour MPs put Corbyn on the ballot. I do not believe Labour members - as they were then, pre -Corbyn and pre-Momentum - would have done anything so stupid. That one decision has toxified British politics for a decade. Labour became treacherous quasi-Marxists, once again
Also: the wisdom of crowds. The members may be a bit flaky, but there are lots of them. A crowd has a wisdom denied the individual
Apparently the political genius behind this ruse was a bit miffed to be left out of the Government after working so long and hard to bring it about.
It looks increasingly likely that Israel's war across the middle east will soon mean directly attacking Iran. Presumably targeting the nuclear facilities or the IRGC. Strangely I'm more comfortable with this than bombing Beirut.
No-one seems to want to take direct action against Iran. Yet no-one seems to have a strategy for deterring them either.
Maybe this is a rare case where First Strike makes sense
Ultimately, it's take on Iran now, when they might have one or two bombs but no practical means of delivery. Vs taking them on in a year or two, when they have a credible first strike capability.
This is of course why the US tuts in public but in private backs Israel. Better that someone else does the dirty work.
There is maybe no choice now
A massive first strike against Iran. Take out its nuclear capabilities and decapitate the regime. If you're gonna come for the Shah, or the Ayatollah, you better not miss
I'd like to think diplomacy could prevail but diplomacy has feral anti-Semites chanting in western cities and 50,000 dead in Gaza. Diplomacy has failed
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Tory members have never voted for a general election loser, since 2001 they have picked IDS, Cameron, Johnson and Truss none of whom lost a general election.
It was Tory MPs alone who picked Hague, Howard, May and Sunak
IDS and Truss didn't fight a GE
What on earth are you talking about
It was a rare HYUFD joke I believe, all the better for being technically true.
Well Theresa May won the 2017 election, Betfair paid out on such a happenstance.
Only on the exchange presumably? They need someone to win so they can take their commission. No bookies will have paid out.
Exciting news from America as candidate Trump declares that immigrants have criminal activity in their genes.
Given that Mom was a Scottish immigrant and Grossvater was a German immigrant he may be onto something there
Crime is racially skewed... is presumably Trump's point
Black Americans are notably homicidal compared to Whites or Asians. We can argue why - poverty, or genes,or a mix, or something else entirely, diet, CO2, slavery - until the end of time
However this does not mean "immigrants" are more criminal than "natives". Some evidence suggests the opposite
But if you break down the migrants by race then you do see a troubling pattern
It looks increasingly likely that Israel's war across the middle east will soon mean directly attacking Iran. Presumably targeting the nuclear facilities or the IRGC. Strangely I'm more comfortable with this than bombing Beirut.
No-one seems to want to take direct action against Iran. Yet no-one seems to have a strategy for deterring them either.
Maybe this is a rare case where First Strike makes sense
Ultimately, it's take on Iran now, when they might have one or two bombs but no practical means of delivery. Vs taking them on in a year or two, when they have a credible first strike capability.
This is of course why the US tuts in public but in private backs Israel. Better that someone else does the dirty work.
There is maybe no choice now
A massive first strike against Iran. Take out its nuclear capabilities and decapitate the regime. If you're gonna come for the Shah, or the Ayatollah, you better not miss
I'd like to think diplomacy could prevail but diplomacy has feral anti-Semites chanting in western cities and 50,000 dead in Gaza. Diplomacy has failed
How
Malcolm Rifkind was saying, on Kuenssberg yesterday, Irans nuclear capabilities are all deep underground and the Israelis don’t have the bombs to take them on, the Americans do but don’t want dragging in.
Famed patroniser of the working-class Julie "Squeaky" Burchill has taken pen to paper and produced a Spectator article on Ozempic and fat Americans. I understand you know some bibulous Speccie hacks thru your connections at The Flint-Knappers Gazette ("Anal pleasure or your money back! No returns!"). Can you nudge them and see if they can produce better ones than that?
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says hurricane is steered by "them".
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Tory members have never voted for a general election loser, since 2001 they have picked IDS, Cameron, Johnson and Truss none of whom lost a general election.
It was Tory MPs alone who picked Hague, Howard, May and Sunak
IDS and Truss didn't fight a GE
What on earth are you talking about
Facts, they never fought a GE so Tory members can correctly state they never picked a general election loser as Howard was the loser in 2005 and Rishi the loser in 2024 not IDS or Truss
Utter childish nonsense
Still true though.
Labour MPs alone equally picked Brown and Foot, while Labour members picked Starmer and Blair even if they also picked Corbyn (Ed Miliband was the choice of neither but the unions).
The argument MPs are better picks of general election vote winners than party members has very little evidence for it. The most you can say is MPs can sometimes pick more capable PMs in power
You make a perfectly sound and informative point. The assumption the members are madder than the MPs, and make worse choices, is simplistic
I think the main point is incentives. In that it's in MPs' self-interest to pick a decent leader with electoral appeal as their job is on the line if they don't. If they are too stupid to, that's their own fault and they will be punished for it. In theory that means they should have an incentive to be in touch with the wider population.
Whereas members don't and have whims and views that are unreflective of the general population. Beyond their favoured side losing there's less consequence, and it often seems to take a few punishment beatings at the polls before they come to their senses. Or like in the Corbyn years there's a chunk of the selectorate that genuinely cares more about the fight within a party than wanting to win an election.
The more one looks at the Chagos Deal, the worse it gets
Jonathan Powell's explanation boils down to: "Well OK it's shit but it was the Tories' idea"
If that is the best the negotiator can do, then it is disastrous. It surely dooms Cleverly
You have been pushing this line for a few days now but the polling and markets do not support your assertion. Cleverly has become favourite since the Chagos story broke. No one (other than you) is blaming him for it. To the extent people are interested it is Lammy and Starmer who are taking the flack.
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Tory members have never voted for a general election loser, since 2001 they have picked IDS, Cameron, Johnson and Truss none of whom lost a general election.
It was Tory MPs alone who picked Hague, Howard, May and Sunak
IDS and Truss didn't fight a GE
What on earth are you talking about
Facts, they never fought a GE so Tory members can correctly state they never picked a general election loser as Howard was the loser in 2005 and Rishi the loser in 2024 not IDS or Truss
Utter childish nonsense
Still true though.
Labour MPs alone equally picked Brown and Foot, while Labour members picked Starmer and Blair even if they also picked Corbyn (Ed Miliband was the choice of neither but the unions).
The argument MPs are better picks of general election vote winners than party members has very little evidence for it. The most you can say is MPs can sometimes pick more capable PMs in power
You make a perfectly sound and informative point. The assumption the members are madder than the MPs, and make worse choices, is simplistic
I think the main point is incentives. In that it's in MPs' self-interest to pick a decent leader with electoral appeal as their job is on the line if they don't. If they are too stupid to, that's their own fault and they will be punished for it. In theory that means they should have an incentive to be in touch with the wider population.
Whereas members don't and have whims and views that are unreflective of the general population. Beyond their favoured side losing there's less consequence, and it often seems to take a few punishment beatings at the polls before they come to their senses. Or like in the Corbyn years there's a chunk of the selectorate that genuinely cares more about the fight within a party than wanting to win an election.
But @HYUFD has just shown you, with evidence, that MPs are easily as likely to choose a loser as members, and MPs can have weird spaz-outs (eg Corbyn on the ballot) all of their own
TBH most MPs I have personally met have been creepy, sad, ugly, drunken, neurodivergent losers who lack sex. Who else wants to be an MP?
The more one looks at the Chagos Deal, the worse it gets
Jonathan Powell's explanation boils down to: "Well OK it's shit but it was the Tories' idea"
If that is the best the negotiator can do, then it is disastrous. It surely dooms Cleverly
You have been pushing this line for a few days now but the polling and markets do not support your assertion. Cleverly has become favourite since the Chagos story broke. No one (other than you) is blaming him for it. To the extent people are interested it is Lammy and Starmer who are taking the flack.
And yet Cleverly quickly skipped out of the Chagos debate today
He knows it hurts him. And it does
The Telegraph is banging the Chagos drum daily, as is the Spectator, with its brilliant and handsome and surprisingly charming, virile, debonair new editor. That's what Tories read, and I bet it is slowly having an effect
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says hurricane is steered by "them".
This is your frequent friendly reminder that the USA does have a weather army.
Just as a matter of interest, do you think that the Generals of the US weather army should be court martialed for allowing hurricanes hit the US when it was President Trump giving the orders?
I have no idea what the capabilities of the US weather army are, or whether they have been up to any nefarious business concerning Trump, but I do say to those mocking the idea of man-made weather, that the US has a weather army. So unless it consists of people doing raindances, the idea of weather modification is quite real.
The more one looks at the Chagos Deal, the worse it gets
Jonathan Powell's explanation boils down to: "Well OK it's shit but it was the Tories' idea"
If that is the best the negotiator can do, then it is disastrous. It surely dooms Cleverly
You have been pushing this line for a few days now but the polling and markets do not support your assertion. Cleverly has become favourite since the Chagos story broke. No one (other than you) is blaming him for it. To the extent people are interested it is Lammy and Starmer who are taking the flack.
Given that the Man on the Clapham Omnibus has never heard of the Chagos Islands, your penultimate point is key…
The clip of Jonathan Powell defending the Chagos deal is quite extraordinary. He boasts about meeting all of the American’s red lines as if he were negotiating for them and not us.
The more one looks at the Chagos Deal, the worse it gets
Jonathan Powell's explanation boils down to: "Well OK it's shit but it was the Tories' idea"
If that is the best the negotiator can do, then it is disastrous. It surely dooms Cleverly
You have been pushing this line for a few days now but the polling and markets do not support your assertion. Cleverly has become favourite since the Chagos story broke. No one (other than you) is blaming him for it. To the extent people are interested it is Lammy and Starmer who are taking the flack.
And yet Cleverly quickly skipped out of the Chagos debate today
He knows it hurts him. And it does
The Telegraph is banging the Chagos drum daily, as is the Spectator, with its brilliant and handsome and surprisingly charming, virile, debonair new editor. That's what Tories read, and I bet it is slowly having an effect
And yet I have read that the new editor is quite keen on Cleverly, as is George Osborne.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says hurricane is steered by "them".
The clip of Jonathan Powell defending the Chagos deal is quite extraordinary. He boasts about meeting all of the American’s red lines as if he were negotiating for them and not us.
That world-view crops up far too often. I read a report by somebody (I think it was in the Navy) that took pride in the fact that policy was based on servicing the Americans' needs. Some people in Government really need to work out which flag they salute.
The more one looks at the Chagos Deal, the worse it gets
Jonathan Powell's explanation boils down to: "Well OK it's shit but it was the Tories' idea"
If that is the best the negotiator can do, then it is disastrous. It surely dooms Cleverly
You have been pushing this line for a few days now but the polling and markets do not support your assertion. Cleverly has become favourite since the Chagos story broke. No one (other than you) is blaming him for it. To the extent people are interested it is Lammy and Starmer who are taking the flack.
And yet Cleverly quickly skipped out of the Chagos debate today
He knows it hurts him. And it does
The Telegraph is banging the Chagos drum daily, as is the Spectator, with its brilliant and handsome and surprisingly charming, virile, debonair new editor. That's what Tories read, and I bet it is slowly having an effect
And yet I have read that the new editor is quite keen on Cleverly, as is George Osborne.
Don't believe everything you read in The Spectator, is all I can say. But that should be obvious
It looks increasingly likely that Israel's war across the middle east will soon mean directly attacking Iran. Presumably targeting the nuclear facilities or the IRGC. Strangely I'm more comfortable with this than bombing Beirut.
No-one seems to want to take direct action against Iran. Yet no-one seems to have a strategy for deterring them either.
Maybe this is a rare case where First Strike makes sense
Ultimately, it's take on Iran now, when they might have one or two bombs but no practical means of delivery. Vs taking them on in a year or two, when they have a credible first strike capability.
This is of course why the US tuts in public but in private backs Israel. Better that someone else does the dirty work.
There is maybe no choice now
A massive first strike against Iran. Take out its nuclear capabilities and decapitate the regime. If you're gonna come for the Shah, or the Ayatollah, you better not miss
I'd like to think diplomacy could prevail but diplomacy has feral anti-Semites chanting in western cities and 50,000 dead in Gaza. Diplomacy has failed
How
Malcolm Rifkind was saying, on Kuenssberg yesterday, Irans nuclear capabilities are all deep underground and the Israelis don’t have the bombs to take them on, the Americans do but don’t want dragging in.
Don't need to take out the bombs, just the people with their fingers on the trigger.
The clip of Jonathan Powell defending the Chagos deal is quite extraordinary. He boasts about meeting all of the American’s red lines as if he were negotiating for them and not us.
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Tory members have never voted for a general election loser, since 2001 they have picked IDS, Cameron, Johnson and Truss none of whom lost a general election.
It was Tory MPs alone who picked Hague, Howard, May and Sunak
IDS and Truss didn't fight a GE
What on earth are you talking about
Facts, they never fought a GE so Tory members can correctly state they never picked a general election loser as Howard was the loser in 2005 and Rishi the loser in 2024 not IDS or Truss
Utter childish nonsense
Still true though.
Labour MPs alone equally picked Brown and Foot, while Labour members picked Starmer and Blair even if they also picked Corbyn (Ed Miliband was the choice of neither but the unions).
The argument MPs are better picks of general election vote winners than party members has very little evidence for it. The most you can say is MPs can sometimes pick more capable PMs in power
You make a perfectly sound and informative point. The assumption the members are madder than the MPs, and make worse choices, is simplistic
I think the main point is incentives. In that it's in MPs' self-interest to pick a decent leader with electoral appeal as their job is on the line if they don't. If they are too stupid to, that's their own fault and they will be punished for it. In theory that means they should have an incentive to be in touch with the wider population.
Whereas members don't and have whims and views that are unreflective of the general population. Beyond their favoured side losing there's less consequence, and it often seems to take a few punishment beatings at the polls before they come to their senses. Or like in the Corbyn years there's a chunk of the selectorate that genuinely cares more about the fight within a party than wanting to win an election.
But @HYUFD has just shown you, with evidence, that MPs are easily as likely to choose a loser as members, and MPs can have weird spaz-outs (eg Corbyn on the ballot) all of their own
TBH most MPs I have personally met have been creepy, sad, ugly, drunken, neurodivergent losers who lack sex. Who else wants to be an MP?
I did say in theory!
I suppose you could say it's qualitative rather than quantitative in that when MPs pick a dud it's not liable to be a complete loony. The two genuinely disastrous loonies (Corbyn, Truss) were members picks.
Foot is an MPs' pick who was disastrous, but there were other reasons for that in that many Labour MPs thought he'd lose but backed him because they believed he was a compromise candidate who'd prevent a civil war - which of course happened anyway because it may have been inevitable, but still.
Anyway, I'd say a mixed system that allows both members and MPs an effective veto on someone they really object to if enough vote against them may work best. Providing, as has happened in both the Tories and Labour in recent times, MPs aren't so stupid they effectively give up their veto and allow a candidate they know is unfit to be put to the membership.
The clip of Jonathan Powell defending the Chagos deal is quite extraordinary. He boasts about meeting all of the American’s red lines as if he were negotiating for them and not us.
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Tory members have never voted for a general election loser, since 2001 they have picked IDS, Cameron, Johnson and Truss none of whom lost a general election.
It was Tory MPs alone who picked Hague, Howard, May and Sunak
IDS and Truss didn't fight a GE
What on earth are you talking about
Facts, they never fought a GE so Tory members can correctly state they never picked a general election loser as Howard was the loser in 2005 and Rishi the loser in 2024 not IDS or Truss
Utter childish nonsense
Still true though.
Labour MPs alone equally picked Brown and Foot, while Labour members picked Starmer and Blair even if they also picked Corbyn (Ed Miliband was the choice of neither but the unions).
The argument MPs are better picks of general election vote winners than party members has very little evidence for it. The most you can say is MPs can sometimes pick more capable PMs in power
You make a perfectly sound and informative point. The assumption the members are madder than the MPs, and make worse choices, is simplistic
There's a belief either the madder members don't get selected (in general) or the realities of being an MP force them to be a bit more reflective and savvy.
I can believe it's true of the average MP vs the average member, but even so it doesn't mean they're any better at picking a winner.
Indeed
Fucking idiotic Labour MPs put Corbyn on the ballot. I do not believe Labour members - as they were then, pre -Corbyn and pre-Momentum - would have done anything so stupid. That one decision has toxified British politics for a decade. Labour became treacherous quasi-Marxists, once again
Also: the wisdom of crowds. The members may be a bit flaky, but there are lots of them. A crowd has a wisdom denied the individual
To be fair to Corbyn though he did get a higher voteshare than Starmer in 2017 and a hung parliament and a higher voteshare than Brown and Ed Miliband in 2019
The clip of Jonathan Powell defending the Chagos deal is quite extraordinary. He boasts about meeting all of the American’s red lines as if he were negotiating for them and not us.
Back in March, a hit-and-run driver seriously injured a 15-year old boy in our village. In June, he was jailed for one year and eleven months. He has already been released, after serving just eleven weeks.
And is now living in the village, near where the boy and his family live. The boy has still not recovered from the injuries sustained.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says hurricane is steered by "them".
How can he win amongst the members unless he faces Tugenhadt?
Surely Jenrick vs Cleverly with the members means Jenrick?
Isn't it just possibe the members will reflect on their previous disastrous choices and go for the more sensible option this time? Yes, I know these are mostly brain-addled Daily Mail readers, bit even they are capable of learning from mistakes, aren't they?
Tory members have never voted for a general election loser, since 2001 they have picked IDS, Cameron, Johnson and Truss none of whom lost a general election.
It was Tory MPs alone who picked Hague, Howard, May and Sunak
IDS and Truss didn't fight a GE
What on earth are you talking about
Facts, they never fought a GE so Tory members can correctly state they never picked a general election loser as Howard was the loser in 2005 and Rishi the loser in 2024 not IDS or Truss
Utter childish nonsense
Still true though.
Labour MPs alone equally picked Brown and Foot, while Labour members picked Starmer and Blair even if they also picked Corbyn (Ed Miliband was the choice of neither but the unions).
The argument MPs are better picks of general election vote winners than party members has very little evidence for it. The most you can say is MPs can sometimes pick more capable PMs in power
You make a perfectly sound and informative point. The assumption the members are madder than the MPs, and make worse choices, is simplistic
There's a belief either the madder members don't get selected (in general) or the realities of being an MP force them to be a bit more reflective and savvy.
I can believe it's true of the average MP vs the average member, but even so it doesn't mean they're any better at picking a winner.
Indeed
Fucking idiotic Labour MPs put Corbyn on the ballot. I do not believe Labour members - as they were then, pre -Corbyn and pre-Momentum - would have done anything so stupid. That one decision has toxified British politics for a decade. Labour became treacherous quasi-Marxists, once again
Also: the wisdom of crowds. The members may be a bit flaky, but there are lots of them. A crowd has a wisdom denied the individual
To be fair to Corbyn though he did get a higher voteshare than Starmer in 2017 and a hung parliament and a higher voteshare than Brown and Ed Miliband in 2019
Back in March, a hit-and-run driver seriously injured a 15-year old boy in our village. In June, he was jailed for one year and eleven months. He has already been released, after serving just eleven weeks.
And is now living in the village, near where the boy and his family live. The boy has still not recovered from the injuries sustained.
This sort of story, local as it is, does the court and justice system no favours at all.
Driving at 37mph in a 20mph zone albeit leaving the scene, plus a 5 year driving ban, doesn't seem that far off given the offence. Albeit maybe a bit more for leaving the scene.
It was of course the Starmer government that let him out early as a non violent offender with a less than 4 year sentence, not the judges
Exciting news from America as candidate Trump declares that immigrants have criminal activity in their genes.
Given that Mom was a Scottish immigrant and Grossvater was a German immigrant he may be onto something there
Crime is racially skewed... is presumably Trump's point
Black Americans are notably homicidal compared to Whites or Asians. We can argue why - poverty, or genes,or a mix, or something else entirely, diet, CO2, slavery - until the end of time
However this does not mean "immigrants" are more criminal than "natives". Some evidence suggests the opposite
But if you break down the migrants by race then you do see a troubling pattern
Blacks are much less likely to immigrants to the US than other racial groups.
The clip of Jonathan Powell defending the Chagos deal is quite extraordinary. He boasts about meeting all of the American’s red lines as if he were negotiating for them and not us.
Of course he was negotiating for the Americans. When has the UK done anything else except follow American instructions on Diego Garcia?
The assertions on here about Chagos are completely disconnected from reality.
The Americans wanted us to retain sovereignty. It is fucking obvious if you think about the ramifications of each scenario, and you have an IQ over 103
Once it became clear we were determined to hand back (back? To Mauritius??? China?????) these islands then the Americans made the best of our very bad job, and told us what they then expected. You are simply too dim to work all this out and I cannot be arsed to explain it, again
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says hurricane is steered by "them".
This is your frequent friendly reminder that the USA does have a weather army.
Does it?
Yes.
Details, please.
From Wikipedia:
U.S. Weather Force
The United States Weather Force (USWF) is a top-secret, specialized military unit established to leverage advanced climate-control technologies for national defense and strategic military operations. Formed in the late 20th century, the USWF utilizes cutting-edge weather manipulation tools, including space-based lasers, artificial storm generation, and atmospheric disruption devices, to target enemy forces and infrastructure. This elite division, officially part of the U.S. Department of Defense, has been at the forefront of global military dominance through non-conventional warfare methods. While its existence remains shrouded in controversy and secrecy, leaked reports and declassified documents suggest that the USWF's capabilities are unparalleled, able to weaponize natural phenomena such as hurricanes, droughts, and even lightning storms. Critics of the program argue that the militarization of weather poses significant ethical and environmental risks, while supporters maintain that it is a vital tool for maintaining U.S. security in a rapidly evolving global threat landscape.
Exciting news from America as candidate Trump declares that immigrants have criminal activity in their genes.
Given that Mom was a Scottish immigrant and Grossvater was a German immigrant he may be onto something there
Crime is racially skewed... is presumably Trump's point
Black Americans are notably homicidal compared to Whites or Asians. We can argue why - poverty, or genes,or a mix, or something else entirely, diet, CO2, slavery - until the end of time
However this does not mean "immigrants" are more criminal than "natives". Some evidence suggests the opposite
But if you break down the migrants by race then you do see a troubling pattern
Blacks are much less likely to immigrants to the US than other racial groups.
its not like the good old days when they used to arrive at major ports by the shipload.
Back in March, a hit-and-run driver seriously injured a 15-year old boy in our village. In June, he was jailed for one year and eleven months. He has already been released, after serving just eleven weeks.
And is now living in the village, near where the boy and his family live. The boy has still not recovered from the injuries sustained.
This sort of story, local as it is, does the court and justice system no favours at all.
Driving at 37mph in a 20mph zone albeit leaving the scene, plus a 5 year driving ban, doesn't seem that far off given the offence. Albeit maybe a bit more for leaving the scene.
It was of course the Starmer government that let him out early as a non violent offender with a less than 4 year sentence, not the judges
Torched his own car as well. I can understand 1 year 11 months, serving half for good behaviour. But 11 weeks - less than three months - is far too little given the injuries it has given the kid.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says hurricane is steered by "them".
This is your frequent friendly reminder that the USA does have a weather army.
Does it?
Yes.
Details, please.
From Wikipedia:
U.S. Weather Force
The United States Weather Force (USWF) is a top-secret, specialized military unit established to leverage advanced climate-control technologies for national defense and strategic military operations. Formed in the late 20th century, the USWF utilizes cutting-edge weather manipulation tools, including space-based lasers, artificial storm generation, and atmospheric disruption devices, to target enemy forces and infrastructure. This elite division, officially part of the U.S. Department of Defense, has been at the forefront of global military dominance through non-conventional warfare methods. While its existence remains shrouded in controversy and secrecy, leaked reports and declassified documents suggest that the USWF's capabilities are unparalleled, able to weaponize natural phenomena such as hurricanes, droughts, and even lightning storms. Critics of the program argue that the militarization of weather poses significant ethical and environmental risks, while supporters maintain that it is a vital tool for maintaining U.S. security in a rapidly evolving global threat landscape.
I've never read that before. I just knew they had a huge weather division with generals etc. They probably have more people in their weather army than we do in our army army.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says hurricane is steered by "them".
This is your frequent friendly reminder that the USA does have a weather army.
Does it?
Yes.
Details, please.
From Wikipedia:
U.S. Weather Force
The United States Weather Force (USWF) is a top-secret, specialized military unit established to leverage advanced climate-control technologies for national defense and strategic military operations. Formed in the late 20th century, the USWF utilizes cutting-edge weather manipulation tools, including space-based lasers, artificial storm generation, and atmospheric disruption devices, to target enemy forces and infrastructure. This elite division, officially part of the U.S. Department of Defense, has been at the forefront of global military dominance through non-conventional warfare methods. While its existence remains shrouded in controversy and secrecy, leaked reports and declassified documents suggest that the USWF's capabilities are unparalleled, able to weaponize natural phenomena such as hurricanes, droughts, and even lightning storms. Critics of the program argue that the militarization of weather poses significant ethical and environmental risks, while supporters maintain that it is a vital tool for maintaining U.S. security in a rapidly evolving global threat landscape.
all we need now is an explanation for why the US Army decided to destroy the Florida bend and North Carolina.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says hurricane is steered by "them".
Back in March, a hit-and-run driver seriously injured a 15-year old boy in our village. In June, he was jailed for one year and eleven months. He has already been released, after serving just eleven weeks.
And is now living in the village, near where the boy and his family live. The boy has still not recovered from the injuries sustained.
This sort of story, local as it is, does the court and justice system no favours at all.
Driving at 37mph in a 20mph zone albeit leaving the scene, plus a 5 year driving ban, doesn't seem that far off given the offence. Albeit maybe a bit more for leaving the scene.
It was of course the Starmer government that let him out early as a non violent offender with a less than 4 year sentence, not the judges
Torched his own car as well. I can understand 1 year 11 months, serving half for good behaviour. But 11 weeks - less than three months - is far too little given the injuries it has given the kid.
Did he get time off for being remanded in custody? it does look as if he got more tarrif off than usual.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says hurricane is steered by "them".
The clip of Jonathan Powell defending the Chagos deal is quite extraordinary. He boasts about meeting all of the American’s red lines as if he were negotiating for them and not us.
The more one looks at the Chagos Deal, the worse it gets
Jonathan Powell's explanation boils down to: "Well OK it's shit but it was the Tories' idea"
If that is the best the negotiator can do, then it is disastrous. It surely dooms Cleverly
You have been pushing this line for a few days now but the polling and markets do not support your assertion. Cleverly has become favourite since the Chagos story broke. No one (other than you) is blaming him for it. To the extent people are interested it is Lammy and Starmer who are taking the flack.
And yet Cleverly quickly skipped out of the Chagos debate today
He knows it hurts him. And it does
The Telegraph is banging the Chagos drum daily, as is the Spectator, with its brilliant and handsome and surprisingly charming, virile, debonair new editor. That's what Tories read, and I bet it is slowly having an effect
Is Govey vain enough to believe grovelling subordinates when they tell him he’s handsome? Worth a try I suppose.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says hurricane is steered by "them".
This is your frequent friendly reminder that the USA does have a weather army.
Does it?
Yes.
Details, please.
From Wikipedia:
U.S. Weather Force
The United States Weather Force (USWF) is a top-secret, specialized military unit established to leverage advanced climate-control technologies for national defense and strategic military operations. Formed in the late 20th century, the USWF utilizes cutting-edge weather manipulation tools, including space-based lasers, artificial storm generation, and atmospheric disruption devices, to target enemy forces and infrastructure. This elite division, officially part of the U.S. Department of Defense, has been at the forefront of global military dominance through non-conventional warfare methods. While its existence remains shrouded in controversy and secrecy, leaked reports and declassified documents suggest that the USWF's capabilities are unparalleled, able to weaponize natural phenomena such as hurricanes, droughts, and even lightning storms. Critics of the program argue that the militarization of weather poses significant ethical and environmental risks, while supporters maintain that it is a vital tool for maintaining U.S. security in a rapidly evolving global threat landscape.
I've never read that before. I just knew they had a huge weather division with generals etc. They probably have more people in their weather army than we do in our army army.
Rumour has it that Ian McCaskill ran it for a while but was sacked when he deployed it just to spite Michael Fish.
The clip of Jonathan Powell defending the Chagos deal is quite extraordinary. He boasts about meeting all of the American’s red lines as if he were negotiating for them and not us.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says hurricane is steered by "them".
This is your frequent friendly reminder that the USA does have a weather army.
Does it?
Yes.
Details, please.
From Wikipedia:
U.S. Weather Force
The United States Weather Force (USWF) is a top-secret, specialized military unit established to leverage advanced climate-control technologies for national defense and strategic military operations. Formed in the late 20th century, the USWF utilizes cutting-edge weather manipulation tools, including space-based lasers, artificial storm generation, and atmospheric disruption devices, to target enemy forces and infrastructure. This elite division, officially part of the U.S. Department of Defense, has been at the forefront of global military dominance through non-conventional warfare methods. While its existence remains shrouded in controversy and secrecy, leaked reports and declassified documents suggest that the USWF's capabilities are unparalleled, able to weaponize natural phenomena such as hurricanes, droughts, and even lightning storms. Critics of the program argue that the militarization of weather poses significant ethical and environmental risks, while supporters maintain that it is a vital tool for maintaining U.S. security in a rapidly evolving global threat landscape.
I've never read that before. I just knew they had a huge weather division with generals etc. They probably have more people in their weather army than we do in our army army.
Rumour has it that Ian McCaskill ran it for a while but was sacked when he deployed it just to spite Michael Fish.
Aww. You're really very funny - I don't care what people say.
Biden signs emergency declaration as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4919619-biden-signs-disaster-declaration-florida/ ...Milton on Monday strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Florida, with officials warning of a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and urging certain areas to evacuate. The Associated Press reported the storm could make landfall on Wednesday. It is expected to move across Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean, which would mean other states would largely be spared from its impact. Milton is arriving in Florida as the Sunshine State, as well as Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene. That stormed killed more than 200 people after hitting the United States a little more than one week ago...
I wonder whether this will harm the climate change deniers standing in the November election.
Trump is about 4% ahead in Florida and Scott also 4% ahead for the Senate. Florida lost to GOP is a game changer.
Whether the Florida hurricane leads more people to vote Dem or Rep, will depend entirely on whether it’s the State or Federal governments seen to be leading the relief efforts.
The view from the Helene aftermath was not in the Feds’ favour.
It also depends on whether some GOP supporters change their mind on the dangers of climate change and reject the deniers.
Preposterous to put down freak weather events down to climate change. That’s little more than blaming angry gods for an earth quake.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says hurricane is steered by "them".
This is your frequent friendly reminder that the USA does have a weather army.
Does it?
Yes.
Details, please.
From Wikipedia:
U.S. Weather Force
The United States Weather Force (USWF) is a top-secret, specialized military unit established to leverage advanced climate-control technologies for national defense and strategic military operations. Formed in the late 20th century, the USWF utilizes cutting-edge weather manipulation tools, including space-based lasers, artificial storm generation, and atmospheric disruption devices, to target enemy forces and infrastructure. This elite division, officially part of the U.S. Department of Defense, has been at the forefront of global military dominance through non-conventional warfare methods. While its existence remains shrouded in controversy and secrecy, leaked reports and declassified documents suggest that the USWF's capabilities are unparalleled, able to weaponize natural phenomena such as hurricanes, droughts, and even lightning storms. Critics of the program argue that the militarization of weather poses significant ethical and environmental risks, while supporters maintain that it is a vital tool for maintaining U.S. security in a rapidly evolving global threat landscape.
Ah yes, that's the organisation that grew out of the earlier work of the American Responsive Storm Engineering.
Exciting news from America as candidate Trump declares that immigrants have criminal activity in their genes.
Given that Mom was a Scottish immigrant and Grossvater was a German immigrant he may be onto something there
Crime is racially skewed... is presumably Trump's point
Black Americans are notably homicidal compared to Whites or Asians. We can argue why - poverty, or genes,or a mix, or something else entirely, diet, CO2, slavery - until the end of time
However this does not mean "immigrants" are more criminal than "natives". Some evidence suggests the opposite
But if you break down the migrants by race then you do see a troubling pattern
I'm pretty certain it's not genetic or racial, but sociological. Blacks in America, especially native born ones, are more violent than Hispanics while African countries generally have similar or slightly lower homicide rates than Latin American ones.
Back in March, a hit-and-run driver seriously injured a 15-year old boy in our village. In June, he was jailed for one year and eleven months. He has already been released, after serving just eleven weeks.
And is now living in the village, near where the boy and his family live. The boy has still not recovered from the injuries sustained.
This sort of story, local as it is, does the court and justice system no favours at all.
Driving at 37mph in a 20mph zone albeit leaving the scene, plus a 5 year driving ban, doesn't seem that far off given the offence. Albeit maybe a bit more for leaving the scene.
It was of course the Starmer government that let him out early as a non violent offender with a less than 4 year sentence, not the judges
Torched his own car as well. I can understand 1 year 11 months, serving half for good behaviour. But 11 weeks - less than three months - is far too little given the injuries it has given the kid.
Did he get time off for being remanded in custody? it does look as if he got more tarrif off than usual.
No idea. Seems wrong to me though, particularly as it was a hit-and-run and he torched the car afterwards.
Comments
I won't even tell Twitter my age. I don't get to see all those X links as a result.
My life has not suffered as a consequence.
However, if they were just trying to get access to the property, someone could easily manipulate the whole process by lying and giving false information, so the whole thing seems to have no real purpose.
The question is whether those distortions would exist even without marketing spend behind them. Levis jeans selling at a premium in Soviet Russia, for example.
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-nigel-farage-supporters-maga-politics-uk-elections/
All I'll offer on the Conservative leadership election is the MPs are voting for someone to lead them as well as the party and possibly the country. The Party leader is also the Parliamentary leader and I would think MPs are looking for who can make the best impact in the Commons.
The best leader in the Commons isn't always the best leader for the party in the country or even for those seeking to be brought back into the Conservative fold.
The former welder and maintenance man had been at the Butler event when Trump was shot, and was eager to return for the second coming.'..Before Trump disappeared and the homeward rush began, POLITICO at last found one person, hobbling along in the twilight, who had heard of Farage: Patrick Mangan.
“His movement in getting out of the European Union was the same kind of populist movement we’re having here right now,” said the 66-year-old former political adviser.
Mangan’s “Keep America Great” polo shirt stretched around his stomach. “Jesus is my savior; Trump is my president,” his cap proclaimed. He leaned deep on his crutch and warned about the threat of civil war if the election is “stolen” from Trump.
But his message to Farage was one of reassurance: “The great populist movements of Trump, in South America, and in Europe, are alive and well.”
It was Tory MPs alone who picked Hague, Howard, May and Sunak
2 yr is similar
https://conservativehome.com/2024/10/06/cleverly-overtakes-jenrick-in-our-post-conference-leadership-survey
There's a lot we don't know about ConHome polls, and plenty of water to flow under the bridge, but he's got a chance.
What on earth are you talking about
Also something Starmer was good at, and Cleverly could replicate, is to maximise the opportunities the opposition give you.
Jonathan Powell's explanation boils down to: "Well OK it's shit but it was the Tories' idea"
If that is the best the negotiator can do, then it is disastrous. It surely dooms Cleverly
Labour MPs alone equally picked Brown and Foot, while Labour members picked Starmer and Blair even if they also picked Corbyn (Ed Miliband was the choice of neither but the unions).
The argument MPs are better picks of general election vote winners than party members has very little evidence for it. The most you can say is MPs can sometimes pick more capable PMs in power
No-one seems to want to take direct action against Iran. Yet no-one seems to have a strategy for deterring them either.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2lp5l9dpro
I suppose you might call it 'nudging the tiller'.
I can believe it's true of the average MP vs the average member, but even so it doesn't mean they're any better at picking a winner.
This is of course why the US tuts in public but in private backs Israel. Better that someone else does the dirty work.
Given that Mom was a Scottish immigrant and Grossvater was a German immigrant he may be onto something there
Just watched the latest episode of Young Sheldon that aired on E4 last night.
Fucking idiotic Labour MPs put Corbyn on the ballot. I do not believe Labour members - as they were then, pre -Corbyn and pre-Momentum - would have done anything so stupid. That one decision has toxified British politics for a decade. Labour became treacherous quasi-Marxists, once again
Also: the wisdom of crowds. The members may be a bit flaky, but there are lots of them. A crowd has a wisdom denied the individual
A massive first strike against Iran. Take out its nuclear capabilities and decapitate the regime. If you're gonna come for the Shah, or the Ayatollah, you better not miss
I'd like to think diplomacy could prevail but diplomacy has feral anti-Semites chanting in western cities and 50,000 dead in Gaza. Diplomacy has failed
Black Americans are notably homicidal compared to Whites or Asians. We can argue why - poverty, or genes,or a mix, or something else entirely, diet, CO2, slavery - until the end of time
However this does not mean "immigrants" are more criminal than "natives". Some evidence suggests the opposite
But if you break down the migrants by race then you do see a troubling pattern
Malcolm Rifkind was saying, on Kuenssberg yesterday, Irans nuclear capabilities are all deep underground and the Israelis don’t have the bombs to take them on, the Americans do but don’t want dragging in.
Famed patroniser of the working-class Julie "Squeaky" Burchill has taken pen to paper and produced a Spectator article on Ozempic and fat Americans. I understand you know some bibulous Speccie hacks thru your connections at The Flint-Knappers Gazette ("Anal pleasure or your money back! No returns!"). Can you nudge them and see if they can produce better ones than that?
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/obesity-will-soon-be-history
Whereas members don't and have whims and views that are unreflective of the general population. Beyond their favoured side losing there's less consequence, and it often seems to take a few punishment beatings at the polls before they come to their senses. Or like in the Corbyn years there's a chunk of the selectorate that genuinely cares more about the fight within a party than wanting to win an election.
TBH most MPs I have personally met have been creepy, sad, ugly, drunken, neurodivergent losers who lack sex. Who else wants to be an MP?
He knows it hurts him. And it does
The Telegraph is banging the Chagos drum daily, as is the Spectator, with its brilliant and handsome and surprisingly charming, virile, debonair new editor. That's what Tories read, and I bet it is slowly having an effect
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.205526560
https://x.com/timesradio/status/1842123550066430273
The assertions on here about Chagos are completely disconnected from reality.
I suppose you could say it's qualitative rather than quantitative in that when MPs pick a dud it's not liable to be a complete loony. The two genuinely disastrous loonies (Corbyn, Truss) were members picks.
Foot is an MPs' pick who was disastrous, but there were other reasons for that in that many Labour MPs thought he'd lose but backed him because they believed he was a compromise candidate who'd prevent a civil war - which of course happened anyway because it may have been inevitable, but still.
Anyway, I'd say a mixed system that allows both members and MPs an effective veto on someone they really object to if enough vote against them may work best. Providing, as has happened in both the Tories and Labour in recent times, MPs aren't so stupid they effectively give up their veto and allow a candidate they know is unfit to be put to the membership.
And is now living in the village, near where the boy and his family live. The boy has still not recovered from the injuries sustained.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9wvdmewn71o
This sort of story, local as it is, does the court and justice system no favours at all.
Starmer 2024 = 411 seats (now 403)
It was of course the Starmer government that let him out early as a non violent offender with a less than 4 year sentence, not the judges
Once it became clear we were determined to hand back (back? To Mauritius??? China?????) these islands then the Americans made the best of our very bad job, and told us what they then expected. You are simply too dim to work all this out and I cannot be arsed to explain it, again
U.S. Weather Force
The United States Weather Force (USWF) is a top-secret, specialized military unit established to leverage advanced climate-control technologies for national defense and strategic military operations. Formed in the late 20th century, the USWF utilizes cutting-edge weather manipulation tools, including space-based lasers, artificial storm generation, and atmospheric disruption devices, to target enemy forces and infrastructure. This elite division, officially part of the U.S. Department of Defense, has been at the forefront of global military dominance through non-conventional warfare methods. While its existence remains shrouded in controversy and secrecy, leaked reports and declassified documents suggest that the USWF's capabilities are unparalleled, able to weaponize natural phenomena such as hurricanes, droughts, and even lightning storms. Critics of the program argue that the militarization of weather poses significant ethical and environmental risks, while supporters maintain that it is a vital tool for maintaining U.S. security in a rapidly evolving global threat landscape.
I've never read that before. I just knew they had a huge weather division with generals etc. They probably have more people in their weather army than we do in our army army.
were they needing IanB2 and dog for scale?
Should have been named Sovereign Albion, or something.
Today is Thom Yorke's birthday.
Today should be a national holiday for the front man of Radiohead.