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The Lib Dems and the Tory peril – politicalbetting.com

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  • I remember thinking back in October that, given Hamas must have calculated on a very strong Israeli response when planning the massacre, in order to confound Hamas Israel would have to react in a way Hamas weren't expecting.

    That would either mean "under-reacting" or "over-reacting". As the former (turning the other cheek) would have been politically unacceptable then, as sure as eggs are eggs, "over-reacting" it would be. And so here we are. Gaza flattened and Israeli air-strikes on Hamas leaders wherever they happen to be operating, even if it's in Iran. Presumably the Hamas planners didn't plan on being dead.

    The sad truth is that no-one is really interested in the Palestinians including - in fact, especially - their fellow Muslim Arabs. At least not those in government. Gaza is not important economically, militarily, or in any other way to those playing realpolitik. I'm struggling to see how any of this ends.
    I don't think it does. Israel seem to have decided that peace only gives Hamas a chance to launch another surprise attack, so permanent war it is. That suits Hamas too. They will fight until everyone in Gaza is dead.
  • 🚨 Today’s BMG Poll 🚨

    🟥 Labour: 30%
    🟦 Tory: 26%
    🟪 Reform: 19%
    🟧 Lib Dems: 11%
    🟩 Greens: 7%

    Greens bottom of the pile?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432

    denial
    anger
    bargaining
    depression
    acceptance

    If you think the grief cycle is the only cause of anger then you are pretty foolish.

    What do you think I am grieving?
  • In most unexpected news ever: the paralympics triathlon, which was supposed to occur this morning, has been delayed until tomorrow. Because the water quality in the Seine is shite. Quite literally.

    They spent a billion Euros to clean up the river, yet the news system cannot even cope with the excess rainfall in summer.
  • I remember thinking back in October that, given Hamas must have calculated on a very strong Israeli response when planning the massacre, in order to confound Hamas Israel would have to react in a way Hamas weren't expecting.

    That would either mean "under-reacting" or "over-reacting". As the former (turning the other cheek) would have been politically unacceptable then, as sure as eggs are eggs, "over-reacting" it would be. And so here we are. Gaza flattened and Israeli air-strikes on Hamas leaders wherever they happen to be operating, even if it's in Iran. Presumably the Hamas planners didn't plan on being dead.

    The sad truth is that no-one is really interested in the Palestinians including - in fact, especially - their fellow Muslim Arabs. At least not those in government. Gaza is not important economically, militarily, or in any other way to those playing realpolitik. I'm struggling to see how any of this ends.
    Wes Streeting came within 600 votes of losing his seat to someone who DOES care!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,000
    Hypothetical polling.

    Presidential poll if Trump dropped out:

    Harris 57%
    Vance 39%

    There's your MAGA floor.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkZVPcqqCKE
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,177
    I like Andy a lot.

    He is a really effective Chief Exec. Excellent at delivery.

    His political antennae, however, are off on this.

    Until Reform is extinguished, at least in 2019 Tory seats, there is no chance of a Tory govt.
  • William Rubinstein, historian of the ‘super rich’ who also defended Britain’s policies during the Holocaust – obituary
    He argued that many of the wartime democracies’ so-called ‘plans for rescue’ of the Jews were figments of postwar historians’ imaginations

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2024/09/01/william-rubinstein-historian-holocaust-shakespeare/ (£££)

    Mentioned because Rubinstein was at Aberystwyth which *might* be @ydoethur's alma mater.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,177
    edited September 2024
    Foxy said:

    I am not angry.

    A bit tetchy about Brexiteers who whinge about paying for what they voted for, higher pay for their fellow citizens and levelling up of neglected areas, levelling up requiring relative progress compared with their own favoured areas. It isn't ex miners in Mansfield talking of going into tax exile.
    I didn't vote for higher pay for train drivers and other union dominated industries.

    The public sector don't realise they're born compared to the private sector. Safe jobs and decent pensions, particularly for those who aren't strong performers. It is they, not those of us who pay the bill, who ought to stop whingeing.

    But more important than that, I didn't vote for puritanical socialists to tell people what they should and shouldn't do in their private lives.

    I suspect Labour polling at 30% is going to looked upon wistfully by those on the left come September 1 2025....
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,956
    Barnesian said:

    In Richmond, Lib Dems got 56% share of the vote in the last 2022 council elections and 48/54 seats.
    The Tories got 27% of the vote and 1/54 seats (now zero).
    That is ridiculously unfair. LDs still campaign for PR even though it would mean that the Tories would have approximately 15 seats on the Council.
    Yes, the Tories are greatly disliked and do not have anything sensible to say, but theirs is an important point of view and they should have a fair amount of representation.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,912
    kinabalu said:

    Apart from Gilbert & Sullivan, computer gaming and dressage I can't think of anything I'm less interested in than GE Voting Intention polls when the last GE was 2 months ago and the next one is in 5 years.

    But thank you, John.
    The next election might be in 3 or 4 years' time.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,177
    kinabalu said:

    Apart from Gilbert & Sullivan, computer gaming and dressage I can't think of anything I'm less interested in than GE Voting Intention polls when the last GE was 2 months ago and the next one is in 5 years.

    But thank you, John.
    The centrist Dad 'boring is hip' line is going to be wearing a bit thin when Starmer is polling in the 20s...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,299

    Hypothetical polling.

    Presidential poll if Trump dropped out:

    Harris 57%
    Vance 39%

    There's your MAGA floor.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkZVPcqqCKE

    Where do we think the Trump floor is though? Or his ceiling for that matter.

    I think he's going to poll between 43 and 45.
  • Mortimer said:

    I like Andy a lot.

    He is a really effective Chief Exec. Excellent at delivery.

    His political antennae, however, are off on this.

    Until Reform is extinguished, at least in 2019 Tory seats, there is no chance of a Tory govt.

    Thing is that he is wrong/right and you are right/wrong. To get anywhere, the Conservatives need to do two things. One is to strangle Reform and the other is to do something equally ruthless to the idea of blue Liberals. Lib Dems on 70 also kills off a Conservative majority.

    And I don't think anyone has a plan to solve either of those problems without making the other one worse.

    (When did Red Wall Theory come into play? I want to say 2017. Adding older northern WWC voters to the Conservative tally was a gain, but only as long as it didn't repel younger southern metropolitan voters. That second shoe took a while to drop.)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,000

    🚨 Today’s BMG Poll 🚨

    🟥 Labour: 30%
    🟦 Tory: 26%
    🟪 Reform: 19%
    🟧 Lib Dems: 11%
    🟩 Greens: 7%

    Labour/Tory crossover before Christmas.

    And best part of 5 years Buyers' Remorse for LibDem and Reform voters.

    The people of Britain needed a stark reminder of what Labour Governments mean.

    They got it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,299
    Andy_JS said:

    The next election might be in 3 or 4 years' time.
    You never know - but 4 at the earliest, I'd have thought.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,177
    pigeon said:

    The critical role of the Lib Dems in the next Parliament is to dig in to all those new seats that they've gained and not yield them, i.e be really sticky in the way they were always good at pre-Coalition. The Tories chasing the Reform vote under the leadership of some hard right, migrants-and-trannies obsessed lunatic, ought to help enormously.

    The Conservative Party is a Trump-lite cesspool of toxic waste, governing on behalf of a core nucleus of elderly golf club bores with fascistic leanings. It's essential that it be denied a majority until the unlikely event of it cleaning up its act, or until it dies out. The cities loathe it, so it can only claw its way to victory through firm control of the whole of its powerbase in Southern England outside London. If the Lib Dems control a big chunk of that territory, the Conservatives can never win again. So we must all hope that Sir Ed plays his cards well.

    Hubristic post much?

    Similar posts were being made in 2019.

    Reality is more complex.

    Had the Tories got sub 80 seats, I think Reform would have taken over and see mass defections.

    Because they didn't, and amid a backdrop of a hugely unpopular new PM with incredible flat-footed political responses who seems intent on soaking the 'rich' (i.e., anyone in the middle class), I suspect we could easily be looking at a hung parliament by the next election.

  • Mortimer said:

    The centrist Dad 'boring is hip' line is going to be wearing a bit thin when Starmer is polling in the 20s...
    I fear I'm a pretty average 'centrist Dad', and I've been saying that the fact Starmer is boring is a big problem for him for years.

    You might want to change it to: "Labourite cope" line ....
  • Labour/Tory crossover before Christmas.

    And best part of 5 years Buyers' Remorse for LibDem and Reform voters.

    The people of Britain needed a stark reminder of what Labour Governments mean.

    They got it.
    I suspect crossover early Nov after the Budget!

    We did try to warn people didn't we! 😈
  • kinabalu said:

    You never know - but 4 at the earliest, I'd have thought.
    Unless something bonkers happens:

    May 2028 if Labour are confident of winning.
    May 2029 if they expect to lose.

    And remember kiddos, Callaghan was ahead of Maggie by this point after the 1979 general election.

    And we all know how that ended up.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,177

    Labour/Tory crossover before Christmas.

    And best part of 5 years Buyers' Remorse for LibDem and Reform voters.

    The people of Britain needed a stark reminder of what Labour Governments mean.

    They got it.
    Especially if they elect someone willing to hold the Govt to account on immigration, who wasn't tarnished by working closely with Sunak in the fag end of the last parliament.

    Robert Jenrick, come on down.....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,472

    People get angry about the stupidest things.

    I've probably said this story before, but three decades ago I was at uni in London, and had to get the tube in each morning. I was on crutches, and me and a friend got into a packed tube train at South Woodford. A few stops later, a woman said angrily to me: "Do you have to use those things on the tube?"

    Because, of course, I was only using the crutches to annoy her and steal a few precious square centimetres of space in the carriage.
    There are angry arseholes in every group.

    The Giant Dickheads In Giant SUVs now have e-bikes and are Giant Dickheads on E-Bikes etc.

  • kinabalu said:

    Where do we think the Trump floor is though? Or his ceiling for that matter.

    I think he's going to poll between 43 and 45.
    2016 46.1%
    2020 46.8%
    2024 ?? Trump's favourability ratings seem pretty good compared to 2016 and 2020.

    I find it hard to see him receiving a lower share of the vote than in 2020.
  • I suspect crossover early Nov after the Budget!

    We did try to warn people didn't we! 😈
    If only the Tories under Johnson/Truss/Sunak weren't so crap!
  • Mortimer said:

    Especially if they elect someone willing to hold the Govt to account on immigration, who wasn't tarnished by working closely with Sunak in the fag end of the last parliament.

    Robert Jenrick, come on down.....
    Plan is to lock him in the basement for the duration?

    Might be prudent, I suppose.

    (Can't be bothered to go through the details, but immigration was such a fiasco for so long that he's bound to have skeletons in his closet there.)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432
    edited September 2024

    I suspect crossover early Nov after the Budget!

    We did try to warn people didn't we! 😈
    Polling doesn't matter though for 4 years.

    In 2028 it starts to become interesting. It looks like Starmer expects that the hard grind is done by thenand results are showing in terms of public finances and services.

    He might be right, he may be wrong, but that's the plan.
  • Mortimer said:

    Especially if they elect someone willing to hold the Govt to account on immigration, who wasn't tarnished by working closely with Sunak in the fag end of the last parliament.

    Robert Jenrick, come on down.....
    Would any Tory MP have credibility with Reform voters on immigration? They had years in government and failed to deal with the issue. They passed the Rwanda plan laws, and still failed to deport anyone, and possibly called an election to avoid doing so.

    I'm still boggled that the election was called for July. Sunak could still be PM and sending planeloads of people to Rwanda if he hadn't called the election.
  • kinabalu said:

    Apart from Gilbert & Sullivan, computer gaming and dressage I can't think of anything I'm less interested in than GE Voting Intention polls when the last GE was 2 months ago and the next one is in 5 years.

    But thank you, John.
    Translation: that's not a good poll for Labour, and I don't want to hear it.
  • HYUFD said:

    An even bigger 6,476 Reform votes for the Tories to squeeze in East Hampshire too.

    While if Tugendhat became Tory leader some of those 2024 LD voters would likely go Tory again next time
    I live in East Hampshire.

    The Liberal Democrats aren't taking it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,912
    Ollie Pope has reviewed 8 times. None has been successful.
  • Tres said:

    As someone who has benefitted from opportunities to live and work in numerous different countries, the idea of choosing to live your life purely to minimise how much tax you pay is just baffling.
    Depends on how much tax you are talking about. For all that I wouldn't move for entirely personal reasons, I entirely understand why, for example, The Rolling Stones moved to France in the early 70s. When you are paying 90% tax on much of your earnings there must be a high incentive to look elsewhere to live. In 1974 it got even worse when it went up to 98%.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,912

    I live in East Hampshire.

    The Liberal Democrats aren't taking it.
    I thought the LDs would win it, and the Tories would hold NE Hants. Got it the wrong way round.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,472

    Depends on how much tax you are talking about. For all that I wouldn't move for entirely personal reasons, I entirely understand why, for example, The Rolling Stones moved to France in the early 70s. When you are paying 90% tax on much of your earnings there must be a high incentive to look elsewhere to live. In 1974 it got even worse when it went up to 98%.

    IIRC, no one ever paid 98%
  • Depends on how much tax you are talking about. For all that I wouldn't move for entirely personal reasons, I entirely understand why, for example, The Rolling Stones moved to France in the early 70s. When you are paying 90% tax on much of your earnings there must be a high incentive to look elsewhere to live. In 1974 it got even worse when it went up to 98%.

    The 98% was 83% 'regular' income tax plus 15% on top for investment income eg interest on savings

    I only mention this as I expect Rachel to bring in a 5% investment income surcharge. Rachel and Keir don't like people to have savings.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,314

    I live in East Hampshire.

    The Liberal Democrats aren't taking it.
    Are you putting up barricades?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559

    In most unexpected news ever: the paralympics triathlon, which was supposed to occur this morning, has been delayed until tomorrow. Because the water quality in the Seine is shite. Quite literally.

    They spent a billion Euros to clean up the river, yet the news system cannot even cope with the excess rainfall in summer.

    This can't be right - we've been told that it is only Brexit Britain that has excess rainfall leading to sewage overflow.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,912
    O/T

    New Mentour Pilot video on the infamous Saudi air incident Flight 163 in 1980.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pgug1I5_UlU
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,387
    Driver said:

    This can't be right - we've been told that it is only Brexit Britain that has excess rainfall leading to sewage overflow.
    Overflow? Get your hyperbole right! They're "pumping it into the rivers".
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 981

    The sheer brutality of hamas;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce31ddege9vo

    Executing hostages. Casually justifying it.

    Peace seems very far away, dun’it?

    How do we know Isreali missles didn't kill them? The Isreali's haven't exactly been very discerning.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,299
    edited September 2024
    Mortimer said:

    I didn't vote for higher pay for train drivers and other union dominated industries.

    The public sector don't realise they're born compared to the private sector. Safe jobs and decent pensions, particularly for those who aren't strong performers. It is they, not those of us who pay the bill, who ought to stop whingeing.

    But more important than that, I didn't vote for puritanical socialists to tell people what they should and shouldn't do in their private lives.

    I suspect Labour polling at 30% is going to looked upon wistfully by those on the left come September 1 2025....
    Well of course you didn't vote for it! But I did and there were more of me than there were of you. This time that's how it was. Normally it's the other way round, so next time who knows. It could be normal service resumed. Until then - so at least for the next 4 years - we have this Labour government with a big majority so let's see how they get on.

    It's your absolute right but I find the whinging a bit tedious. Your kind of politics doesn't have a right to be in the saddle, you know, and for the next few years it isn't and won't be. If it's any comfort there are also plenty of people on the left (Corbynites and others) who are pissed off with the election result.

    Well, tough titty to you and to them too. Your party got hammered. The radical Left had their chance when they controlled Labour and they blew it.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,774

    Translation: that's not a good poll for Labour, and I don't want to hear it.
    Would give Labour 348 seats and Conservatives 180 seats and a Labour majority of 46 according to Electoral Calculus.

    I suspect Labour would be happy with that.

    Obviously both the poll and Electoral Calculus are completely meaningless at this point. My first checkpoint will be next year's English Council Elections. The Conservatives have had a string of bad results here. Will they start to turn this round?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,912
    "Tory leadership race: Robert Jenrick says he has plan to fix this 'great country'"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cStleQJK5Zo
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Andy_JS said:

    Ollie Pope has reviewed 8 times. None has been successful.

    He is the polar opposite of Stokes, who is a reluctant reviewer at the best of times.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,292
    Andy_JS said:

    "Tory leadership race: Robert Jenrick says he has plan to fix this 'great country'"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cStleQJK5Zo

    I suspect most people's response will be "where was this plan in the past 14 years and why couldn't you persuade your own party to follow it if it was going to fix this great country?"

    The more I see of Jenrick the more he seems determined to follow the style of Poilievre in Canada.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    stodge said:

    I suspect most people's response will be "where was this plan in the past 14 years and why couldn't you persuade your own party to follow it if it was going to fix this great country?"

    The more I see of Jenrick the more he seems determined to follow the style of Poilievre in Canada.
    JENRICK
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081

    JENRICK
    Rhymes with Prick !
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,912
    "Trump signals backing for Florida marijuana legalisation"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq6rj3n8nrdo
  • During last night's convo, wasn't that a point that was made? Abroad is excellent for providing more, nicer, house for less money.

    Which leaves me with some questions that I really don't have answers to, but I have strong suspicions.

    How much of our collective sense of "not enough money" is down to the cost of accommodation, rather than taxes?

    How much of the money released by tax cuts since the 1980s has just dropped through to the bucket labelled "house price inflation"? (I'm imagining something like that model of the economy made of clear plastic pipes and coloured water. Science Museum or a fever dream?)
    I recall someone explaining to me that Hong Kong rents + income tax were roughly equivalent to the costs in the West
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639
    Loving the excitement of PB Tories being a mere 4 points behind Labour some (checks notes) five years before the next general election (assuming things pan out as they suggest). I was breathlessly examining the polls from mid-2019 in the run up to this year’s election I can tell you. They were uncannily accurate.

    Onto more pressing matters. Why is this the flattest Man Utd v Liverpool game since…forever!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,068
    malcolmg said:

    Yes there are loads of people with those skills just wandering the streets waiting to slot in. What planet are you on, he gets the big money for a reason.
    Does no-one else work where he is? Aren't they training up younger staff? What would they do if we got ill, or retired? Don't they have competitors who employ staff? I don't believe he is so completely and utterly irreplaceable.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    DougSeal said:

    Loving the excitement of PB Tories being a mere 4 points behind Labour some (checks notes) five years before the next general election (assuming things pan out as they suggest). I was breathlessly examining the polls from mid-2019 in the run up to this year’s election I can tell you. They were uncannily accurate.

    Onto more pressing matters. Why is this the flattest Man Utd v Liverpool game since…forever!

    I find the furious Sky wanking over this fixture deeply unedifying. Most people hate both clubs and don’t care who wins.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,299
    Mortimer said:

    The centrist Dad 'boring is hip' line is going to be wearing a bit thin when Starmer is polling in the 20s...
    Huey Lewis and the News! :smile:
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,068
    Mortimer said:

    I didn't vote for higher pay for train drivers and other union dominated industries.

    The public sector don't realise they're born compared to the private sector. Safe jobs and decent pensions, particularly for those who aren't strong performers. It is they, not those of us who pay the bill, who ought to stop whingeing.

    But more important than that, I didn't vote for puritanical socialists to tell people what they should and shouldn't do in their private lives.

    I suspect Labour polling at 30% is going to looked upon wistfully by those on the left come September 1 2025....
    Get a public sector job then. There are plenty of unfilled places in multiple roles.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872
    edited September 2024
    Nunu5 said:

    How do we know Isreali missles didn't kill them? The Isreali's haven't exactly been very discerning.
    Hamas could - and should - have released all the hostages last year. Their deaths are on Hamas. You should ponder why Hamas haven't released the hostages.

    And I suppose you think Hamas have been 'discerning' ?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,001

    I find the furious Sky wanking over this fixture deeply unedifying. Most people hate both clubs and don’t care who wins.
    They were also wanking over the Man Utd Keeper in the build-up. One might call it Onnanaism.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773

    Why are you so angry recently?
    I am not Foxy but I assume it's because we swapped a set of incompetent conservatives who didn't understand the problems faced by the UK but instead indulged in the obsessions of the right-wing metropolitan elite, for a set of competent conservatives who dont understand the problems faced by the UK but instead indulge in the obsessions of the left-wing metropolitan elite.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 439
    edited September 2024
    Nunu5 said:

    How do we know Isreali missles didn't kill them? The Isreali's haven't exactly been very discerning.
    This is why war is so awful. People like you lose your humanity.

    I'll ask you a simple, straight question. No deflection.

    Was Hamas justified in kidnapping those people, holding them in horrific conditions for eleven months and then executing them, in cold blood.

    ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,299

    2016 46.1%
    2020 46.8%
    2024 ?? Trump's favourability ratings seem pretty good compared to 2016 and 2020.

    I find it hard to see him receiving a lower share of the vote than in 2020.
    I think he will - he's a weaker older flakier candidate this time and I think he'll shed 2 or 3 points between now and Nov 5th.
  • kinabalu said:

    Huey Lewis and the News! :smile:
    For the next 4-5 years, their platter "Stuck with you" is much more relevant.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432

    Does no-one else work where he is? Aren't they training up younger staff? What would they do if we got ill, or retired? Don't they have competitors who employ staff? I don't believe he is so completely and utterly irreplaceable.
    His company may prefer to employ him abroad. Companies often move offices abroad, often because of favourable tax treatment, or other reasons such as post Brexit market access.

    Graveyards are full of irreplaceable men. The reality is, particularly in tech and finance there are almost always ambitious young wolves with a lean and hungry look to take advantage of any gap that appears. Often migrants from overseas of course, but should pass the income test.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,299

    Translation: that's not a good poll for Labour, and I don't want to hear it.
    No, I'm perfectly serious about my supreme lack of interest in UK polls right now.

    US polls - different story. Living and breathing those.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,001
    DougSeal said:

    Loving the excitement of PB Tories being a mere 4 points behind Labour some (checks notes) five years before the next general election (assuming things pan out as they suggest). I was breathlessly examining the polls from mid-2019 in the run up to this year’s election I can tell you. They were uncannily accurate.

    Onto more pressing matters. Why is this the flattest Man Utd v Liverpool game since…forever!

    Nice work Doug.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639
    Have to say we (Ipswich) at least managed to keep a clean sheet at home in the first half against Liverpool this season.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,299
    Liverpool look terrific now they've got a decent manager, don't they.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,262

    IIRC, no one ever paid 98%
    Possibly some time in the late 1940's. Seem to remember something about it. Mind, the taxpayer had to be earning A LOT, and it was of course only on the last 5 or so %.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,292
    Exit polls from Saxony and Thuringia imminent.

    Thuringia looks fascinating with Alternativ set to top the state poll with about 30% leaving the CDU on 22% and Linke losing more than half their support to around 15%. The Bundnis Wagenknecht (BSW) set to finish third with 17-20%/

    The FDP and Greens will miss out and the SPD might as well.

    I imagine the story over here will be all about Alternativ but for me the real story in both states will be the rise of BSW.

    Government formation in both states post election will be interesting though I think Kretschmer will carry on in Saxony. For AfD and BSW this is the point where protest politics meets the real world.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,911
    Foxy said:

    If you think the grief cycle is the only cause of anger then you are pretty foolish.

    What do you think I am grieving?
    You think bunging cash at public sector workers is levelling up. 😂
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,911

    I find the furious Sky wanking over this fixture deeply unedifying. Most people hate both clubs and don’t care who wins.
    This is something we can both agree on.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953
    Nunu5 said:

    How do we know Isreali missles didn't kill them? The Isreali's haven't exactly been very discerning.
    Quality victim blaming there.

    Hamas kidnapped those people 11 months ago from kibbutzes and music festivals and subjected them to months of torture.

    Have a word with yourself.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,472
    Foxy said:

    His company may prefer to employ him abroad. Companies often move offices abroad, often because of favourable tax treatment, or other reasons such as post Brexit market access.

    Graveyards are full of irreplaceable men. The reality is, particularly in tech and finance there are almost always ambitious young wolves with a lean and hungry look to take advantage of any gap that appears. Often migrants from overseas of course, but should pass the income test.
    Following on from the citizens of nowhere comment above…

    Everyone in my team, apart from me, is a first generation immigrant. If Working From The Algave appeals, they have much less binding them to this country. Why should it?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,299

    For the next 4-5 years, their platter "Stuck with you" is much more relevant.
    Ah don't know that one. But yes, most apt. Or maybe not if all this 'emigration' talk isn't just talk.

    I'm picturing the beauty spots and beaches of the world cluttered with British digital nomarks, sorry nomads!, all adding value there instead of here. It's a grim thought.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,774
    Taz said:

    You think bunging cash at public sector workers is levelling up. 😂
    Agreeing pay settlements in line with national averages isn't sensibly called "bunging cash at public sector workers". Question is why the previous government of drift didn't do this literally years ago and avoid the inevitable degradation of public services, which at the end of the day is their job to provide.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,912
    "Sezione Politica
    @SezionePolitica

    🗳️🇩🇪 Elezioni Statali #Sassonia

    Exit Poll - ZDF

    ⚫️ CDU: 32%
    🔵 AfD: 31,5%
    🟣 BSW: 11,5%
    🌹SPD: 7,5%
    🟢 Verdi: 5%
    🔴Die Linke: 4,5%

    Soglia di sbarramento: 5%

    #ltw2024 #ltwSachsen2024"

    https://x.com/SezionePolitica/status/1830274659901939804
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,912
    "World Elects
    @ElectsWorld

    🇩🇪#Germany, Thuringia state election exit poll:

    AfD: 33,5 %
    CDU: 24,5 %
    BSW: 14,5 %
    Die Linke: 11,5 %
    SPD: 6,5 %
    Grüne: 4 %
    FDP: 1 %
    Others: 4,5 %

    ZDF,
    #thueringenwahl2024"

    https://x.com/ElectsWorld/status/1830275207204078029
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    edited September 2024
    Tres said:

    As someone who has benefitted from opportunities to live and work in numerous different countries, the idea of choosing to live your life purely to minimise how much tax you pay is just baffling.
    It’s fairly obvious that’s not top of my reasons for generally exiting Britain. At the moment Britain is just depressing. And I have seen far too much of the world to tolerate its bleak drizzly mediocrity especially as I get older and my remaining years dwindle

    The fact I will pay less tax is a nice bonus tho. That is true
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,292
    First look at the German numbers - Saxony is straightforward with the current CDU-SPD-Green Government surviving and looking at a drop of just four seats from 67 to 63 in the 120-seat Landtag. AfD projected to win 41 and BSW 16 to be on the opposition side.

    Thuringia looks a right mess - AfD will have 30 seats, CDU 24 seats, BSW 15, Linke 12 and the SPD 7. Not easy to see how to get to 45 to form a majority Government. Could AfD try to form a minority?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    edited September 2024
    The Tara canyon in Montenegro is astonishing

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tara_River_Canyon

    “Third deepest canyon in the world”

    Who knew? It’s magnificent in the slant late summer sun
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,911
    FF43 said:

    Agreeing pay settlements in line with national averages isn't sensibly called "bunging cash at public sector workers". Question is why the previous government of drift didn't do this literally years ago and avoid the inevitable degradation of public services, which at the end of the day is their job to provide.
    It’s not levelling up, it’s certainly not going to help left behind communities that need levelling up.

    That was my point.

    The previous govt wanted something in return. Reform of working practises. Hardly unreasonable for some of the practises still allowed.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,911
    Leon said:

    The Tara canyon in Montenegro is astonishing

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tara_River_Canyon

    “Third deepest canyon in the world”

    Who knew? It’s magnificent in the slant late summer sun

    Have you had a chance to go to Lake Skardar ?
  • Andy_JS said:

    "World Elects
    @ElectsWorld

    🇩🇪#Germany, Thuringia state election exit poll:

    AfD: 33,5 %
    CDU: 24,5 %
    BSW: 14,5 %
    Die Linke: 11,5 %
    SPD: 6,5 %
    Grüne: 4 %
    FDP: 1 %
    Others: 4,5 %

    ZDF,
    #thueringenwahl2024"

    https://x.com/ElectsWorld/status/1830275207204078029

    That looks like an excellent example of Exquisite Torture, as I believe Paddy Ashdown described the 2010 result.

    AfD can't want to govern on a third of the votes, especially if the really relevant levers of power are still in Berlin.

    How, though, do you get a stable government out of that?

    How do you solve a problem like Eastern Germany?
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,911
    edited September 2024
    Leon said:

    It’s fairly obvious that’s not top of my reasons for generally exiting Britain. At the moment Britain is just depressing. And I have seen far too much of the world to tolerate its bleak drizzly mediocrity especially as I get older and my remaining years dwindle

    The fact I will pay less tax is a nice bonus tho. That is true
    Don’t blame you.

    The U.K. is shit and I had hopes labour would improve it, still have some hope Rachel reeves knows what she’s doing, but Starmer is continuity Sunak. We are in a state of decline and I cannot see anything arresting it.

    God knows why anyone wants to risk their life on a dinghy to come here.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,068
    Taz said:

    It’s not levelling up, it’s certainly not going to help left behind communities that need levelling up.

    That was my point.

    The previous govt wanted something in return. Reform of working practises. Hardly unreasonable for some of the practises still allowed.
    The poorer parts of the country tend to have a higher proportion of the workforce in the public sector. The region with the fewest public sector workers is London. Paying public sector workers a decent wage will produce a degree of levelling up.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,911

    The poorer parts of the country tend to have a higher proportion of the workforce in the public sector. The region with the fewest public sector workers is London. Paying public sector workers a decent wage will produce a degree of levelling up.
    I’m sure they’re dancing on the streets of Stanley this very minute.
  • Taz said:

    It’s not levelling up, it’s certainly not going to help left behind communities that need levelling up.

    That was my point.

    The previous govt wanted something in return. Reform of working practises. Hardly unreasonable for some of the practises still allowed.
    Trouble is that the alternative to paying up was ongoing strikes and unfilled vacancies, which also suck.

    Often, there's no good plan with no drawbacks, just a choice of which drawbacks to swallow.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,472
    kinabalu said:

    No, I'm perfectly serious about my supreme lack of interest in UK polls right now.

    US polls - different story. Living and breathing those.
    No interest in Gilbert & Sullivan? Are you a citizen of nowhere?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,402
    FF43 said:

    Agreeing pay settlements in line with national averages isn't sensibly called "bunging cash at public sector workers". Question is why the previous government of drift didn't do this literally years ago and avoid the inevitable degradation of public services, which at the end of the day is their job to provide.
    Pay increases in the public sector should be much lower than in the private sector, as pay should increase in line with productivity and productivity is increasing far slower (or actually falling) in government than in industry.

    And takehome pay should be far lower in the public sector for comparable jobs in the private sector because public sector pensions and job security are far better.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Taz said:

    Have you had a chance to go to Lake Skardar ?
    Ha! I canoed that with my son. LOTS of paddling. But a beautiful place, and fun to dock in the village and have a few cold ones before returning to the water. Quite funny watching the border guards zip around the lake in their motorboats trying to prevent tourists from inadvertently crossing illegally into Albania!
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,001

    No interest in Gilbert & Sullivan? Are you a citizen of nowhere?
    He is an Englishman, behold him.
  • On topic - the issue is the strange, some would say wierd, ecosystem that so many Cons seem to live in. An online world of culture wars and talking points that are often based on a US political reality that is far from identical to our own. It just does not chime with the mass of UK voters' interests and priorities.

    Even in the US it leads to interesting missteps. Vance used the 'crazy cat ladies' line because in the world of 8chan that is the 'harmless' cover phrase for more overtly offensive anti-woman beliefs. He didn't understand that in the real world even that 'safe' cover phrase makes you look like a freak.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,299
    Well I've done a buy of Liverpool on the spreads for this season (because I think they've replaced a good manager with a great one) and early days etc but I certainly wouldn't take it back.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,001
    kinabalu said:

    Well I've done a buy of Liverpool on the spreads for this season (because I think they've replaced a good manager with a great one) and early days etc but I certainly wouldn't take it back.

    It’s hard to tell, we’ve had an easy run of fixtures and won’t know how good we are until we play a team who might finish in the top half.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,764
    edited September 2024
    Fishing said:

    Pay increases in the public sector should be much lower than in the private sector, as pay should increase in line with productivity and productivity is increasing far slower (or actually falling) in government than in industry.

    And takehome pay should be far lower in the public sector for comparable jobs in the private sector because public sector pensions and job security are far better.
    There is no "should be" in a competitive labour market. It's not values based, and salaries do not reflect productivity but rather the demand and supply for particular roles.

    This effect is summarised here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol_effect. And is also why I think labour-intensive jobs like healthcare will come to dominate our economy over time.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,456
    edited September 2024

    That looks like an excellent example of Exquisite Torture, as I believe Paddy Ashdown described the 2010 result.

    AfD can't want to govern on a third of the votes, especially if the really relevant levers of power are still in Berlin.

    How, though, do you get a stable government out of that?

    How do you solve a problem like Eastern Germany?
    How does it compare with polling? Does it validate my theory that the centre right always outperforms and the far right always underperforms the polls?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,402

    Labour/Tory crossover before Christmas.

    I think the budget will be the big test in the next few months. In the unlikely event that massive tax rises land well, Labour could stabilise. As it'll probably be hugely painful, especially among floating voters where it counts, and Reeves has shown political tin ears and economic incompetence ("That's a great idea. Let's just tax our way to growth!"), crossover could come much earlier than Christmas.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,755
    Leon said:

    It’s fairly obvious that’s not top of my reasons for generally exiting Britain. At the moment Britain is just depressing. And I have seen far too much of the world to tolerate its bleak drizzly mediocrity especially as I get older and my remaining years dwindle

    The fact I will pay less tax is a nice bonus tho. That is true
    That's nice but I mean I don't think it was you we were discussing. I reckon you won't be getting rid of that London flat quite yet.
  • Fishing said:

    Pay increases in the public sector should be much lower than in the private sector, as pay should increase in line with productivity and productivity is increasing far slower (or actually falling) in government than in industry.

    And takehome pay should be far lower in the public sector for comparable jobs in the private sector because public sector pensions and job security are far better.
    But there is no "should"- that's lefty talk. There are three things, and there always have been:

    1. What's the lowest pay and worst conditions the employees are willing to accept before they kick off or walk away?

    2. What's the highest pay and cushiest conditions that the employers are willing to offer before they decide to do without the role?

    3. How much power does each side have to haggle within the range set by 1 and 2?

    The category error we've seen recently is that the outgoing government saw things in terms of point 3- by being steely and resolute, they could hold the pay bill down. What they didn't notice (or chose to overlook) was the significance of point 1. Telling people that they ought to be grateful for what they're getting and really ought to be paid less doesn't work.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,299

    No interest in Gilbert & Sullivan? Are you a citizen of nowhere?
    I like Gilbert 'O' Sullivan. He's underrated. I think - in this shallow world - because of his looks.
This discussion has been closed.