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The Lib Dems and the Tory peril – politicalbetting.com

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  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    🚨 Today’s BMG Poll 🚨

    🟥 Labour: 30%
    🟦 Tory: 26%
    🟪 Reform: 19%
    🟧 Lib Dems: 11%
    🟩 Greens: 7%

    Apart from Gilbert & Sullivan, computer gaming and dressage I can't think of anything I'm less interested in than GE Voting Intention polls when the last GE was 2 months ago and the next one is in 5 years.

    But thank you, John.
    Translation: that's not a good poll for Labour, and I don't want to hear it.
    No, I'm perfectly serious about my supreme lack of interest in UK polls right now.

    US polls - different story. Living and breathing those.
    No interest in Gilbert & Sullivan? Are you a citizen of nowhere?
    I like Gilbert 'O' Sullivan. He's underrated. I think - in this shallow world - because of his looks.
    I see him around occasionally. Seems to have life sorted.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,635
    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    Well I've done a buy of Liverpool on the spreads for this season (because I think they've replaced a good manager with a great one) and early days etc but I certainly wouldn't take it back.

    It’s hard to tell, we’ve had an easy run of fixtures and won’t know how good we are until we play a team who might finish in the top half.
    Hang on, today's opponent is Manchester United Football Club.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,556
    kinabalu said:

    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    Well I've done a buy of Liverpool on the spreads for this season (because I think they've replaced a good manager with a great one) and early days etc but I certainly wouldn't take it back.

    It’s hard to tell, we’ve had an easy run of fixtures and won’t know how good we are until we play a team who might finish in the top half.
    Hang on, today's opponent is Manchester United Football Club.
    Exactement mon ami.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,635
    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    🚨 Today’s BMG Poll 🚨

    🟥 Labour: 30%
    🟦 Tory: 26%
    🟪 Reform: 19%
    🟧 Lib Dems: 11%
    🟩 Greens: 7%

    Apart from Gilbert & Sullivan, computer gaming and dressage I can't think of anything I'm less interested in than GE Voting Intention polls when the last GE was 2 months ago and the next one is in 5 years.

    But thank you, John.
    Translation: that's not a good poll for Labour, and I don't want to hear it.
    No, I'm perfectly serious about my supreme lack of interest in UK polls right now.

    US polls - different story. Living and breathing those.
    No interest in Gilbert & Sullivan? Are you a citizen of nowhere?
    I like Gilbert 'O' Sullivan. He's underrated. I think - in this shallow world - because of his looks.
    I see him around occasionally. Seems to have life sorted.
    That's good to hear. He's given pleasure to many people and deserves to be happy.

    I think I'll pop him on spotify in a minute.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,175

    DougSeal said:

    Loving the excitement of PB Tories being a mere 4 points behind Labour some (checks notes) five years before the next general election (assuming things pan out as they suggest). I was breathlessly examining the polls from mid-2019 in the run up to this year’s election I can tell you. They were uncannily accurate.

    Onto more pressing matters. Why is this the flattest Man Utd v Liverpool game since…forever!

    I find the furious Sky wanking over this fixture deeply unedifying. Most people hate both clubs and don’t care who wins.
    Sounds like a metaphor for Labour vs the Tories.

    Which takes us back to the header…
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,858
    kinabalu said:

    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    Well I've done a buy of Liverpool on the spreads for this season (because I think they've replaced a good manager with a great one) and early days etc but I certainly wouldn't take it back.

    It’s hard to tell, we’ve had an easy run of fixtures and won’t know how good we are until we play a team who might finish in the top half.
    Hang on, today's opponent is Manchester United Football Club.
    27th October - away to Arsenal. Not much till then except AC Milan. Betting post: don't bet the farm on an Arsenal win, sadly.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    The test vs Sri Lanka at the Oval is not a dead rubber from England’s point of view. Win that and we are back in the frame for the Test Championship (although we’d probably need to win both series over the winter…)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,672
    Fishing said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.

    One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.

    Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.

    So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.

    I would never consider leaving England under any circumstances short of civil war. But from a purely monetary point of view it would certainly be tempting. Currently I pay 49% of my turnover in tax which I think is a ridiculous state of affairs.

    More likely, as Labour destroy our energy independence and we move to more and more imports, I will probably move back to working overseas permanently on rotation. Not something I want to do but needs must. It improves both my job prospects and my tax situation. I will still be providing the UK with oil and gas - I will just be doing it from the Middle East or South America.
    Many multinationals are offering working from any country they have an office in.

    It’s the flip side of WFH.
    I seem to recall a lot of Tories saying WFH was terrible and people needed to go back to the office.
    There’s a difference between them, who can be trusted to WFH, and the oiks they employ, who can’t.
    Ah, yes, like there’s a difference between them, who can be trusted with freedom of movement, and the oiks they employ, who can’t!
    And whom they conned into voting for Brexit.
    Conned into having full employment and pay rises.

    But how terrible that they've lost their 'right' to pick turnips in Transylvania.
    Yet strangely those pay rises and full employment are forcing Brexiteer citizens of nowhere to flee these shores as the public sector has to match pay and conditions to keep staff.

    It's almost as if they don't give a damn about levelling up.
    Why are you so angry recently?
    denial
    anger
    bargaining
    depression
    acceptance

    If you think the grief cycle is the only cause of anger then you are pretty foolish.

    What do you think I am grieving?
    You think bunging cash at public sector workers is levelling up. 😂
    Agreeing pay settlements in line with national averages isn't sensibly called "bunging cash at public sector workers". Question is why the previous government of drift didn't do this literally years ago and avoid the inevitable degradation of public services, which at the end of the day is their job to provide.
    Pay increases in the public sector should be much lower than in the private sector, as pay should increase in line with productivity and productivity is increasing far slower (or actually falling) in government than in industry.

    And takehome pay should be far lower in the public sector for comparable jobs in the private sector because public sector pensions and job security are far better.
    We got 2% pay increase last year, and are getting 3% this year. That's it.

    Our employer contributes 6% pa to our pension pots.

    We also have hard utilisation, commercial and revenue targets to hit. Or we're performance managed out.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,945

    Fishing said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.

    One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.

    Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.

    So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.

    I would never consider leaving England under any circumstances short of civil war. But from a purely monetary point of view it would certainly be tempting. Currently I pay 49% of my turnover in tax which I think is a ridiculous state of affairs.

    More likely, as Labour destroy our energy independence and we move to more and more imports, I will probably move back to working overseas permanently on rotation. Not something I want to do but needs must. It improves both my job prospects and my tax situation. I will still be providing the UK with oil and gas - I will just be doing it from the Middle East or South America.
    Many multinationals are offering working from any country they have an office in.

    It’s the flip side of WFH.
    I seem to recall a lot of Tories saying WFH was terrible and people needed to go back to the office.
    There’s a difference between them, who can be trusted to WFH, and the oiks they employ, who can’t.
    Ah, yes, like there’s a difference between them, who can be trusted with freedom of movement, and the oiks they employ, who can’t!
    And whom they conned into voting for Brexit.
    Conned into having full employment and pay rises.

    But how terrible that they've lost their 'right' to pick turnips in Transylvania.
    Yet strangely those pay rises and full employment are forcing Brexiteer citizens of nowhere to flee these shores as the public sector has to match pay and conditions to keep staff.

    It's almost as if they don't give a damn about levelling up.
    Why are you so angry recently?
    denial
    anger
    bargaining
    depression
    acceptance

    If you think the grief cycle is the only cause of anger then you are pretty foolish.

    What do you think I am grieving?
    You think bunging cash at public sector workers is levelling up. 😂
    Agreeing pay settlements in line with national averages isn't sensibly called "bunging cash at public sector workers". Question is why the previous government of drift didn't do this literally years ago and avoid the inevitable degradation of public services, which at the end of the day is their job to provide.
    Pay increases in the public sector should be much lower than in the private sector, as pay should increase in line with productivity and productivity is increasing far slower (or actually falling) in government than in industry.

    And takehome pay should be far lower in the public sector for comparable jobs in the private sector because public sector pensions and job security are far better.
    We got 2% pay increase last year, and are getting 3% this year. That's it.

    Our employer contributes 6% pa to our pension pots.

    We also have hard utilisation, commercial and revenue targets to hit. Or we're performance managed out.
    Why don't you switch over to the public sector then? You could earn £65,000 to be the head of IT at the Treasury!
  • IanB2 said:

    Today’s Sunday Rawnsley, brought to you via the majestic scenery of Grand Island, Nebraska, as yet another megalong US goods train trundles by:

    It makes sense, at the level of basic diplomacy, in the pursuit of common geostrategic interests and to please many of his own party’s supporters, for Sir Keir to strive to improve relations between the UK and its neighbours. There are signs for thinking that the effort is being reciprocated.

    He wants to “turn a corner on Brexit”, and so should the EU. There’s no need to carry on rubbing it in that Britain made a terrible choice eight years ago because that is now so obvious and a chunky majority of British voters express feelings of Bregret.

    The tone of the dialogue with our neighbours has definitely waxed warmer since Sir Keir moved into Number 10, but seasoned observers warn not to read too much into this yet. “People in the UK don’t realise just how bad our reputation is in the EU,” remarks Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform. “There’s a lot of work to do to rebuild trust and confidence, and convince them that Starmer isn’t just a nicer version of Rishi Sunak.” Handshakes for the cameras are easy. The real test is signatures on substantive agreements.

    Any substantive improvement in the economic relationship will have to be negotiated with the European Commission. The botched Brexit deal agreed by Boris Johnson is up for review in 2025-26. It would require a massive effort and a lot of trust to break down the resistance in Brussels to a fundamental recasting.

    In terms of what Sir Keir would like to gain on commerce, the publicly stated ambitions are modest: a veterinary agreement to reduce barriers to trade in food products, the removal of the impediments to touring musicians and other artists, and mutual recognition of professional qualifications. “This is, to put it mildly, quite a strange choice of objectives,” says Anand Menon, the director of UK in a Changing Europe. “Rather than picking low-hanging fruit, the government seems to have opted for targets that are neither low, nor particularly juicy.”

    Are you buzzzing through the Great Plains via interstate highways? OR are you sticking to the two-lane roads?

    IF the former, then no wonder you find everything sooooo booooring.

    Freeways are great for eating up miles . . . but rotten (mostly) for scenery, unless you are traveling through mountains.

    Same as what I experienced in the UK. Which is why I avoided the motorways as much as humanly possible!
  • FffsFffs Posts: 76
    Eabhal said:

    Fishing said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.

    One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.

    Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.

    So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.

    I would never consider leaving England under any circumstances short of civil war. But from a purely monetary point of view it would certainly be tempting. Currently I pay 49% of my turnover in tax which I think is a ridiculous state of affairs.

    More likely, as Labour destroy our energy independence and we move to more and more imports, I will probably move back to working overseas permanently on rotation. Not something I want to do but needs must. It improves both my job prospects and my tax situation. I will still be providing the UK with oil and gas - I will just be doing it from the Middle East or South America.
    Many multinationals are offering working from any country they have an office in.

    It’s the flip side of WFH.
    I seem to recall a lot of Tories saying WFH was terrible and people needed to go back to the office.
    There’s a difference between them, who can be trusted to WFH, and the oiks they employ, who can’t.
    Ah, yes, like there’s a difference between them, who can be trusted with freedom of movement, and the oiks they employ, who can’t!
    And whom they conned into voting for Brexit.
    Conned into having full employment and pay rises.

    But how terrible that they've lost their 'right' to pick turnips in Transylvania.
    Yet strangely those pay rises and full employment are forcing Brexiteer citizens of nowhere to flee these shores as the public sector has to match pay and conditions to keep staff.

    It's almost as if they don't give a damn about levelling up.
    Why are you so angry recently?
    denial
    anger
    bargaining
    depression
    acceptance

    If you think the grief cycle is the only cause of anger then you are pretty foolish.

    What do you think I am grieving?
    You think bunging cash at public sector workers is levelling up. 😂
    Agreeing pay settlements in line with national averages isn't sensibly called "bunging cash at public sector workers". Question is why the previous government of drift didn't do this literally years ago and avoid the inevitable degradation of public services, which at the end of the day is their job to provide.
    Pay increases in the public sector should be much lower than in the private sector, as pay should increase in line with productivity and productivity is increasing far slower (or actually falling) in government than in industry.

    And takehome pay should be far lower in the public sector for comparable jobs in the private sector because public sector pensions and job security are far better.
    We got 2% pay increase last year, and are getting 3% this year. That's it.

    Our employer contributes 6% pa to our pension pots.

    We also have hard utilisation, commercial and revenue targets to hit. Or we're performance managed out.
    Why don't you switch over to the public sector then? You could earn £65,000 to be the head of IT at the Treasury!
    Hmm…

    https://www.levels.fyi/t/software-engineer/locations/london-metro-area
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,269

    Andy_JS said:

    "World Elects
    @ElectsWorld

    🇩🇪#Germany, Thuringia state election exit poll:

    AfD: 33,5 %
    CDU: 24,5 %
    BSW: 14,5 %
    Die Linke: 11,5 %
    SPD: 6,5 %
    Grüne: 4 %
    FDP: 1 %
    Others: 4,5 %

    ZDF,
    #thueringenwahl2024"

    https://x.com/ElectsWorld/status/1830275207204078029

    That looks like an excellent example of Exquisite Torture, as I believe Paddy Ashdown described the 2010 result.

    AfD can't want to govern on a third of the votes, especially if the really relevant levers of power are still in Berlin.

    How, though, do you get a stable government out of that?

    How do you solve a problem like Eastern Germany?
    In the UK that would give them a landslide majority and a stable government.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,508
    Excellent result for AfD in Thuringia. Exciting times for the sensible right in Germany
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,672
    Eabhal said:

    Fishing said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.

    One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.

    Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.

    So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.

    I would never consider leaving England under any circumstances short of civil war. But from a purely monetary point of view it would certainly be tempting. Currently I pay 49% of my turnover in tax which I think is a ridiculous state of affairs.

    More likely, as Labour destroy our energy independence and we move to more and more imports, I will probably move back to working overseas permanently on rotation. Not something I want to do but needs must. It improves both my job prospects and my tax situation. I will still be providing the UK with oil and gas - I will just be doing it from the Middle East or South America.
    Many multinationals are offering working from any country they have an office in.

    It’s the flip side of WFH.
    I seem to recall a lot of Tories saying WFH was terrible and people needed to go back to the office.
    There’s a difference between them, who can be trusted to WFH, and the oiks they employ, who can’t.
    Ah, yes, like there’s a difference between them, who can be trusted with freedom of movement, and the oiks they employ, who can’t!
    And whom they conned into voting for Brexit.
    Conned into having full employment and pay rises.

    But how terrible that they've lost their 'right' to pick turnips in Transylvania.
    Yet strangely those pay rises and full employment are forcing Brexiteer citizens of nowhere to flee these shores as the public sector has to match pay and conditions to keep staff.

    It's almost as if they don't give a damn about levelling up.
    Why are you so angry recently?
    denial
    anger
    bargaining
    depression
    acceptance

    If you think the grief cycle is the only cause of anger then you are pretty foolish.

    What do you think I am grieving?
    You think bunging cash at public sector workers is levelling up. 😂
    Agreeing pay settlements in line with national averages isn't sensibly called "bunging cash at public sector workers". Question is why the previous government of drift didn't do this literally years ago and avoid the inevitable degradation of public services, which at the end of the day is their job to provide.
    Pay increases in the public sector should be much lower than in the private sector, as pay should increase in line with productivity and productivity is increasing far slower (or actually falling) in government than in industry.

    And takehome pay should be far lower in the public sector for comparable jobs in the private sector because public sector pensions and job security are far better.
    We got 2% pay increase last year, and are getting 3% this year. That's it.

    Our employer contributes 6% pa to our pension pots.

    We also have hard utilisation, commercial and revenue targets to hit. Or we're performance managed out.
    Why don't you switch over to the public sector then? You could earn £65,000 to be the head of IT at the Treasury!
    It would drive me crackers. And, to be fair, I'd do the same to them.

    I get things done.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    edited September 1

    Andy_JS said:

    "World Elects
    @ElectsWorld

    🇩🇪#Germany, Thuringia state election exit poll:

    AfD: 33,5 %
    CDU: 24,5 %
    BSW: 14,5 %
    Die Linke: 11,5 %
    SPD: 6,5 %
    Grüne: 4 %
    FDP: 1 %
    Others: 4,5 %

    ZDF,
    #thueringenwahl2024"

    https://x.com/ElectsWorld/status/1830275207204078029

    That looks like an excellent example of Exquisite Torture, as I believe Paddy Ashdown described the 2010 result.

    AfD can't want to govern on a third of the votes, especially if the really relevant levers of power are still in Berlin.

    How, though, do you get a stable government out of that?

    How do you solve a problem like Eastern Germany?
    In the UK that would give them a landslide majority and a stable government.
    No. Because you play the game as the rules dictate. Labour HQ monitored their canvassing app and rang up anyone who campaigned in a safe seat and immediately invited them to a meeting without coffee. Utterly ruthless FPP ground game.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,444
    LOL. It's one rule for us, one rule for them...

    "The MP also admitted his flats did not have the correct property licences required under a scheme he introduced as Redbridge Council leader, having earlier claimed to the BBC that he had complied with the rules."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crkm15z1r82o
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,836
    edited September 1
    Leon said:

    Excellent result for AfD in Thuringia. Exciting times for the sensible right in Germany

    Third place to this new party:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bündnis_Sahra_Wagenknecht

    "a left-wing nationalist, populist, Eurosceptic and socially conservative German political party founded on 8 January 2024"
  • Andy_JS said:

    "World Elects
    @ElectsWorld

    🇩🇪#Germany, Thuringia state election exit poll:

    AfD: 33,5 %
    CDU: 24,5 %
    BSW: 14,5 %
    Die Linke: 11,5 %
    SPD: 6,5 %
    Grüne: 4 %
    FDP: 1 %
    Others: 4,5 %

    ZDF,
    #thueringenwahl2024"

    https://x.com/ElectsWorld/status/1830275207204078029

    That looks like an excellent example of Exquisite Torture, as I believe Paddy Ashdown described the 2010 result.

    AfD can't want to govern on a third of the votes, especially if the really relevant levers of power are still in Berlin.

    How, though, do you get a stable government out of that?

    How do you solve a problem like Eastern Germany?
    In the UK that would give them a landslide majority and a stable government.
    Only if their vote distribution was as efficient as Labour's. Which seems unlikely.

    Why did Reform get fewer seats than the Lib Dems on more votes? Partly, Reform have zero ground game. But also, they do badly on people being motivated to vote against them.

    Same for Starmer. He has few fans, sure. But as of now, he doesn't have that many haters (most of them seem to be here). I'm sure that will change, it's the nature of politics.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,508
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Excellent result for AfD in Thuringia. Exciting times for the sensible right in Germany

    Third place to this new party:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bündnis_Sahra_Wagenknecht

    "a left-wing nationalist, populist, Eurosceptic and socially conservative German political party founded on 8 January 2024"
    I said “sensible”
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,836
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Excellent result for AfD in Thuringia. Exciting times for the sensible right in Germany

    Third place to this new party:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bündnis_Sahra_Wagenknecht

    "a left-wing nationalist, populist, Eurosceptic and socially conservative German political party founded on 8 January 2024"
    Seems both the AfD and this new party are anti weapons-to-Ukraine.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,808
    ...

    LOL. It's one rule for us, one rule for them...

    "The MP also admitted his flats did not have the correct property licences required under a scheme he introduced as Redbridge Council leader, having earlier claimed to the BBC that he had complied with the rules."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crkm15z1r82o

    I don’t see how this matter can really rest. This isn't a political point - Labour are miles ahead and will win a byelection easily, but I do think byelection it must be.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,678
    edited September 1
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Hypothetical polling.

    Presidential poll if Trump dropped out:

    Harris 57%
    Vance 39%

    There's your MAGA floor.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkZVPcqqCKE

    Where do we think the Trump floor is though? Or his ceiling for that matter.

    I think he's going to poll between 43 and 45.
    2016 46.1%
    2020 46.8%
    2024 ?? Trump's favourability ratings seem pretty good compared to 2016 and 2020.

    I find it hard to see him receiving a lower share of the vote than in 2020.
    I think he will - he's a weaker older flakier candidate this time and I think he'll shed 2 or 3 points between now and Nov 5th.
    The current exponential moving average of the polls is Trump 45%, Harris 49%.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,239
    edited September 1
    Fishing said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.

    One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.

    Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.

    So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.

    I would never consider leaving England under any circumstances short of civil war. But from a purely monetary point of view it would certainly be tempting. Currently I pay 49% of my turnover in tax which I think is a ridiculous state of affairs.

    More likely, as Labour destroy our energy independence and we move to more and more imports, I will probably move back to working overseas permanently on rotation. Not something I want to do but needs must. It improves both my job prospects and my tax situation. I will still be providing the UK with oil and gas - I will just be doing it from the Middle East or South America.
    Many multinationals are offering working from any country they have an office in.

    It’s the flip side of WFH.
    I seem to recall a lot of Tories saying WFH was terrible and people needed to go back to the office.
    There’s a difference between them, who can be trusted to WFH, and the oiks they employ, who can’t.
    Ah, yes, like there’s a difference between them, who can be trusted with freedom of movement, and the oiks they employ, who can’t!
    And whom they conned into voting for Brexit.
    Conned into having full employment and pay rises.

    But how terrible that they've lost their 'right' to pick turnips in Transylvania.
    Yet strangely those pay rises and full employment are forcing Brexiteer citizens of nowhere to flee these shores as the public sector has to match pay and conditions to keep staff.

    It's almost as if they don't give a damn about levelling up.
    Why are you so angry recently?
    denial
    anger
    bargaining
    depression
    acceptance

    If you think the grief cycle is the only cause of anger then you are pretty foolish.

    What do you think I am grieving?
    You think bunging cash at public sector workers is levelling up. 😂
    Agreeing pay settlements in line with national averages isn't sensibly called "bunging cash at public sector workers". Question is why the previous government of drift didn't do this literally years ago and avoid the inevitable degradation of public services, which at the end of the day is their job to provide.
    Pay increases in the public sector should be much lower than in the private sector, as pay should increase in line with productivity and productivity is increasing far slower (or actually falling) in government than in industry.

    And takehome pay should be far lower in the public sector for comparable jobs in the private sector because public sector pensions and job security are far better.
    I actually think governments should be careful with public money. They should always aim to get the best value for money. Sunak hardly achieved this by allowing the pay disputes to fester, with serious knock on effects for productivity.

    On the general productivity point, the Conservatives had 14 years to sort this. If they haven't done so by now, time to get rid.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,213
    FF43 said:

    Fishing said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.

    One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.

    Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.

    So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.

    I would never consider leaving England under any circumstances short of civil war. But from a purely monetary point of view it would certainly be tempting. Currently I pay 49% of my turnover in tax which I think is a ridiculous state of affairs.

    More likely, as Labour destroy our energy independence and we move to more and more imports, I will probably move back to working overseas permanently on rotation. Not something I want to do but needs must. It improves both my job prospects and my tax situation. I will still be providing the UK with oil and gas - I will just be doing it from the Middle East or South America.
    Many multinationals are offering working from any country they have an office in.

    It’s the flip side of WFH.
    I seem to recall a lot of Tories saying WFH was terrible and people needed to go back to the office.
    There’s a difference between them, who can be trusted to WFH, and the oiks they employ, who can’t.
    Ah, yes, like there’s a difference between them, who can be trusted with freedom of movement, and the oiks they employ, who can’t!
    And whom they conned into voting for Brexit.
    Conned into having full employment and pay rises.

    But how terrible that they've lost their 'right' to pick turnips in Transylvania.
    Yet strangely those pay rises and full employment are forcing Brexiteer citizens of nowhere to flee these shores as the public sector has to match pay and conditions to keep staff.

    It's almost as if they don't give a damn about levelling up.
    Why are you so angry recently?
    denial
    anger
    bargaining
    depression
    acceptance

    If you think the grief cycle is the only cause of anger then you are pretty foolish.

    What do you think I am grieving?
    You think bunging cash at public sector workers is levelling up. 😂
    Agreeing pay settlements in line with national averages isn't sensibly called "bunging cash at public sector workers". Question is why the previous government of drift didn't do this literally years ago and avoid the inevitable degradation of public services, which at the end of the day is their job to provide.
    Pay increases in the public sector should be much lower than in the private sector, as pay should increase in line with productivity and productivity is increasing far slower (or actually falling) in government than in industry.

    And takehome pay should be far lower in the public sector for comparable jobs in the private sector because public sector pensions and job security are far better.
    I actually think governments should be careful with public money. They should always aim to get the best value for money. Sunak hardly achieved this by allowing the pay disputes to fester, with serious knock on effects for productivity.

    On the general productivity point, the Conservatives had 14 years to sort this. If they haven't done so by now, time to get rid.
    Pay in the public sector should be whatever the market requires it to be. If you can get away with paying less by guaranteeing workplace conditions and job security, and giving people a sense of working for the greater good, then great. After all that’s why people become teachers. They certainly don’t do it for work life balance or big bucks.

    If you have to pay top dollar because talent is scarce then you either pay it, or invest in technology to automate it away.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,444

    ...

    LOL. It's one rule for us, one rule for them...

    "The MP also admitted his flats did not have the correct property licences required under a scheme he introduced as Redbridge Council leader, having earlier claimed to the BBC that he had complied with the rules."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crkm15z1r82o

    I don’t see how this matter can really rest. This isn't a political point - Labour are miles ahead and will win a byelection easily, but I do think byelection it must be.
    I think you're correct; the more that comes out on this story, the dodgier the MP looks. His defence seems rather poor IMO.

    On the other hand, I bet a few renters are getting visits from their MP landlords asking them if everything is okay and if they can do anything to make the property better...

    Will Starmer do it, or are they hoping the story will just disappear?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,635
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Excellent result for AfD in Thuringia. Exciting times for the sensible right in Germany

    Third place to this new party:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bündnis_Sahra_Wagenknecht

    "a left-wing nationalist, populist, Eurosceptic and socially conservative German political party founded on 8 January 2024"
    Nationalist, Eurosceptic, Socially Conservative and (supposedly) Left Wing? So Galloway has decamped to Germany then. Excellent news.
  • TimS said:

    FF43 said:

    Fishing said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.

    One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.

    Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.

    So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.

    I would never consider leaving England under any circumstances short of civil war. But from a purely monetary point of view it would certainly be tempting. Currently I pay 49% of my turnover in tax which I think is a ridiculous state of affairs.

    More likely, as Labour destroy our energy independence and we move to more and more imports, I will probably move back to working overseas permanently on rotation. Not something I want to do but needs must. It improves both my job prospects and my tax situation. I will still be providing the UK with oil and gas - I will just be doing it from the Middle East or South America.
    Many multinationals are offering working from any country they have an office in.

    It’s the flip side of WFH.
    I seem to recall a lot of Tories saying WFH was terrible and people needed to go back to the office.
    There’s a difference between them, who can be trusted to WFH, and the oiks they employ, who can’t.
    Ah, yes, like there’s a difference between them, who can be trusted with freedom of movement, and the oiks they employ, who can’t!
    And whom they conned into voting for Brexit.
    Conned into having full employment and pay rises.

    But how terrible that they've lost their 'right' to pick turnips in Transylvania.
    Yet strangely those pay rises and full employment are forcing Brexiteer citizens of nowhere to flee these shores as the public sector has to match pay and conditions to keep staff.

    It's almost as if they don't give a damn about levelling up.
    Why are you so angry recently?
    denial
    anger
    bargaining
    depression
    acceptance

    If you think the grief cycle is the only cause of anger then you are pretty foolish.

    What do you think I am grieving?
    You think bunging cash at public sector workers is levelling up. 😂
    Agreeing pay settlements in line with national averages isn't sensibly called "bunging cash at public sector workers". Question is why the previous government of drift didn't do this literally years ago and avoid the inevitable degradation of public services, which at the end of the day is their job to provide.
    Pay increases in the public sector should be much lower than in the private sector, as pay should increase in line with productivity and productivity is increasing far slower (or actually falling) in government than in industry.

    And takehome pay should be far lower in the public sector for comparable jobs in the private sector because public sector pensions and job security are far better.
    I actually think governments should be careful with public money. They should always aim to get the best value for money. Sunak hardly achieved this by allowing the pay disputes to fester, with serious knock on effects for productivity.

    On the general productivity point, the Conservatives had 14 years to sort this. If they haven't done so by now, time to get rid.
    Pay in the public sector should be whatever the market requires it to be. If you can get away with paying less by guaranteeing workplace conditions and job security, and giving people a sense of working for the greater good, then great. After all that’s why people become teachers. They certainly don’t do it for work life balance or big bucks.

    If you have to pay top dollar because talent is scarce then you either pay it, or invest in technology to automate it away.
    One of Parkinson's subsidiary Laws is that an ideal job advert should balance demands and rewards so perfectly that it results in one appointable candidate who can be given the job forthwith.

    There are an awful lot of roles in various bits of the public sector that get zero appointable candidates. That tells us something.
  • "Exciting times for the sensible right in Germany"

    Translation - "Exciting times for the SKINHEAD right in Germany"
  • NEW THREAD

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,444
    For some reason, today I'm getting loads of tweets from Donald Trump on my Twix 'For you' feed. I don't think I've ever seen one from Harris. (I don't follow either, and I think I click on posts from left and right fairly equally.)

    Hmmm...

    (Dons tinfoil hat.)
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,898
    rkrkrk said:

    Good read, thanks for sharing. Bewilders me that Blair thinks he was at his best late on - I think most people would agree his early period was more successful than latterly.
    Yes, that's a good point. Perhaps there were low hanging fruit at the beginning.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608

    kinabalu said:

    Hypothetical polling.

    Presidential poll if Trump dropped out:

    Harris 57%
    Vance 39%

    There's your MAGA floor.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkZVPcqqCKE

    Where do we think the Trump floor is though? Or his ceiling for that matter.

    I think he's going to poll between 43 and 45.
    2016 46.1%
    2020 46.8%
    2024 ?? Trump's favourability ratings seem pretty good compared to 2016 and 2020.

    I find it hard to see him receiving a lower share of the vote than in 2020.
    He could recieve a lower share of the vote than in 2020 under two circumstances that I can see:

    (1) Significantly increased turnout of traditionally low turnout Democratic demographics - particularly women, and inside there, particularly younger women.

    (2) Evangelical Christians staying home.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,858
    Leon said:

    Excellent result for AfD in Thuringia. Exciting times for the sensible right in Germany

    A straw in the wind is that the Economist's Charlemagne this week is noting the shift of the European left away from support for inward migration/open doors refugee policy etc.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,890
    edited September 1

    LOL. It's one rule for us, one rule for them...

    "The MP also admitted his flats did not have the correct property licences required under a scheme he introduced as Redbridge Council leader, having earlier claimed to the BBC that he had complied with the rules."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crkm15z1r82o

    He's up shit creek. He's now sacked his Managing Agent, but has not yet got to grips with the fact that he is the Principal with the responsibilities. It's all slopey shoulders and weasel words.

    The Whips need to find a way out without a byelection; and it has to be around protecting the tenants not covering the MP's arse or doing a petulant punishment in the hope that it will go away.

    It won't go away. Plus they have all the others who are potential timebombs if similar. They have to fix the underlying issue, and will only get one free hit.

    My photo for the day is the Mr Wotsit's block of flats; it's quite remarkably intense development eg no outside space - 2 more floors on top of a long commercial unit in the long back garden of a shop unit. And many more similar in the street.


    He'll be getting an income of £100-150k per annum at a fairly modest estimate from just those 7 flats together, at 1200-1800 per month per flat.
This discussion has been closed.