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The Lib Dems and the Tory peril – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,212
edited September 29 in General
The Lib Dems and the Tory peril – politicalbetting.com

‘Obsession’ with Reform UK could leave Tories out of power for 20 years, warns Andy Street https://t.co/tPehjlDm0O

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,956
    Just had some cheeky bets on Verstappen at 23 and Hamilton 25 to win today's Grand Prix.

    You never know, safety cars, etc.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    edited September 1
    I suspect the LibDems may be in a position to consolidate gains at the next election, should the Tories continue to tack to the right.

    There were several seats they took where the tactical vote was unclear and where it will be more so next time, which may help reinforce majorities. What’s more, unencumbered by the need to lead opposition, LibDem MP’s will have the time to properly embed themselves in their constituencies. I anticipate quite a few of the new seats becoming quite sticky. In many ways they are a better fit for a liberal centrist party than the seats they held in 1997.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,114
    Much as I would like to see the LDs overtake the Conservatives in Parliament, we do have a long way to run before any election.

    The miserablism and coercive approach of Labour is doing it no favours, but we have no real polling yet, and the pollsters have a lot to do to get their models right. In particular their turnout prediction.

    Street looks to be the first significant Tory to have worked their way through the grief response to resolution, perhaps because of a 2 month headstart.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,709
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Just had some cheeky bets on Verstappen at 23 and Hamilton 25 to win today's Grand Prix.

    You never know, safety cars, etc.

    I thought the safety car had crashed in practice?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,946
    Mr. Eagles, the longest odds I looked at were 15 for Sainz. Incredibly hard to tell, though, safety car is eminently possible, and the pace is very tight.

    It's possible Mercedes will suffer in the heat. That said, I think Hamilton has a better chance than Verstappen.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,956
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Just had some cheeky bets on Verstappen at 23 and Hamilton 25 to win today's Grand Prix.

    You never know, safety cars, etc.

    I thought the safety car had crashed in practice?
    It did.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,956
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, the longest odds I looked at were 15 for Sainz. Incredibly hard to tell, though, safety car is eminently possible, and the pace is very tight.

    It's possible Mercedes will suffer in the heat. That said, I think Hamilton has a better chance than Verstappen.

    It's going to be fun to watch.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,946
    Mr. Eagles, might be a Norris victory parade. But even if it is, that shifts the title from probable Verstappen win to perhaps advantage Norris.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,437
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Just had some cheeky bets on Verstappen at 23 and Hamilton 25 to win today's Grand Prix.

    You never know, safety cars, etc.

    I thought the safety car had crashed in practice?
    It did.
    There's a story from the early 1980s when Prof Watkins (the medical officer at the time) complained that there wasn't a medical car available, and therefore the session could not be run. So Bernie and others looked for a fast car in the parking lot, broke into it, and that was the medical car for the session.

    (Or summit like that.)

    Thank goodness times have changed. The 'medical facilities' at some circuits in the seventies were muddy tents.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,437
    I totally bonked on my run this morning. I hate bonking on a run.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,897
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/sep/01/tony-blair-on-leadership-book-interview-starmer-ai-trump

    An interesting interview with Tony Blair.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,897
    Posts still reading top to bottom, for me at least.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,956
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, might be a Norris victory parade. But even if it is, that shifts the title from probable Verstappen win to perhaps advantage Norris.

    Yeah, last week's winning margin was bigger than anything Verstappen has achieved.

    My only concern is how bad Norris starts from pole, last week did him no harm but it will eventually cost him.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,437
    All Musky Baby needs to do now is write his tweets in ALL CAPS and he will be virtually indistinguishable from Trump:

    "Today, we launch the daily data dump on the crimes – under *Brazilian* law – that fake “judge” @alexandre has committed!

    He can block this platform in Brazil, but he can’t stop the whole world from knowing his illegal, shameful & hypocritical deeds. Karma’s a b*tch bro."

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1830062141744853281
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Posts still reading top to bottom, for me at least.

    We are stuck with for the foreseeable thanks to Vanilla. @rcs1000 has been looking into it. There was discussion on yesterday's thread.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,978
    rottenborough said:

    There is also the issue of the assumption that Reform voters are all Tories ready to return to the cause. Seems to be a view that if enough red meat is thrown their way they'll return.

    I really don't think it is going to be that simple.

    Look at where reform are strong. Many of these seats are former labour strongholds where there was never a real,Tory presence. The idea these are all sinning Tories who need to repent is not likely to be the case.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,946
    Mr. Eagles, I did mention this in my blog, but last week it was the track, I think. The top 3-4 drivers on that side all lost a place at the start and Norris' reaction time was identical to Verstappen's.

    You're right that he needs to sort out his starts, though, way too many poor ones this year.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,956
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, I did mention this in my blog, but last week it was the track, I think. The top 3-4 drivers on that side all lost a place at the start and Norris' reaction time was identical to Verstappen's.

    You're right that he needs to sort out his starts, though, way too many poor ones this year.

    His race last week was like Rome during the Second Punic War, poor start but then absolutely dominated and a victory so epic people will talk about it for the rest of time.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,442
    Well quite.

    It's really really hard to map a Conservative path to Downing Street that doesn't go through the sort of seats that the Lib Dems gorged on two months ago. And a lot of Lib Dem voters rather like opting out of the question of who actually runs Britain.

    One quibblette though. Dave didn't do that much to hit Lib Dem popularity in the 2010 election. What did for them was being in government, especially as a junior coalition partner. That's not easy to engineer and adds another five years to the time in purgatory.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,946
    Mr. Eagles, you silly sausage.

    That analogy may end up applying to the title race, if he wins that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, I did mention this in my blog, but last week it was the track, I think. The top 3-4 drivers on that side all lost a place at the start and Norris' reaction time was identical to Verstappen's.

    You're right that he needs to sort out his starts, though, way too many poor ones this year.

    Hamilton had also had a period where he couldn't get a decent start. He'll sort it out.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,125
    The Conservatives need Labour to screw up, which is how you win from Opposition. Then the Reform and Lib Dem problems will solve themselves. It also helps to give people some positive reasons to vote for them, but that's relatively minor.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,709
    edited September 1
    JosiasJessop said:

    I totally bonked on my run this morning. I hate bonking on a run.

    *Raises eyebrows*

    May one be permitted to enquire what Mrs Jessop thought of this?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,437
    "Ukrainian drone strikes in Moscow continue into the morning after successful simultaneous strikes on thermal power plants 120 km northwest & 106 km south of the Kremlin around 3:30am, followed by a direct hit on the Moscow Oil Refinery, just 15 km from the Kremlin."

    https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1830105442472600046
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,236
    The Tories don't have good choices. Demonstrated by Andy Street's recommendation not being slamdunk obvious as it would have been in a previous era
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,437
    ydoethur said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    I totally bonked on my run this morning. I hate bonking on a run.

    *Raises eyebrows*

    May one be permitted to enquire what Mrs Jessop thought of this?
    She thought I should have eaten a proper meal yesterday evening... ;)

    Wait... what.... 'bonking' has more than one meaning?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,114
    Fishing said:

    The Conservatives need Labour to screw up, which is how you win from Opposition. Then the Reform and Lib Dem problems will solve themselves. It also helps to give people some positive reasons to vote for them, but that's relatively minor.

    There are more than 2 parties to choose from nowadays, as the last election showed. It isn't enough for the Tories to win by awaiting buggins turn.

    I would expect a fresh face leading Labour in the 2029 GE, in an attempt to do a Harris/Walz revitalisation and be the "change" choice.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,236
    Foxy said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Well quite.

    It's really really hard to map a Conservative path to Downing Street that doesn't go through the sort of seats that the Lib Dems gorged on two months ago. And a lot of Lib Dem voters rather like opting out of the question of who actually runs Britain.

    One quibblette though. Dave didn't do that much to hit Lib Dem popularity in the 2010 election. What did for them was being in government, especially as a junior coalition partner. That's not easy to engineer and adds another five years to the time in purgatory.

    As a LD I supported the Coalition. Yes there were mistakes but overall it was a golden period of competent government that shines compared to what followed. I don't regret my support, and a lot of good things were achieved.

    There is a real possibility that Labour will lose its majority in 2029 and only be in position to continue in government with LD support. That would be a very difficult decision for the party, not least because keeping in power a government that has lost seats would be out of tune with the electorate. My inclination would be to steer clear of coalition, and vote on a bill by Bill basis.
    It's a lot easier from here for Labour to lose its majority than for the Conservatives to become the biggest party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    For the LDs to eclipse the Tories they would have to become a genuine Orange Book centre right party and ditch the social democrats. Essentially the SDP wing of the LDs which merged with the Liberals in the 1980s would have to return to Labour. Only that would see the remaining One Nation centre right wing of the Tories permanently shift to the Liberals. The Tories would also need to lose their hard right ERG wing to Reform who would become the main party of populist Brexiteers and overtake the Tories too.

    At the moment neither is happening. Indeed on the latest poll from BMG taken last week the Tories are already up 2% since the general election to 26% with Labour down to 30% and Reform while up to 19% are further behind the Tories than the Tories are behind Labour.
    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/voters-labour-dishonest-tax-plans-fuel-duty-rise-3253546

    There is also evidence Tory members are giving Tom Tugendhat, the candidate most likely to win back southern voters and seats from the LDs, a hearing. A new JL Tory members poll today has Tugendhat beating Jenrick and Patel and only narrowly losing to Badenoch
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13800647/Tory-leadership-race-Tom-Tugendhat-Robert-Jenrick-Kemi-Badenoch-poll.html
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,442
    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Well quite.

    It's really really hard to map a Conservative path to Downing Street that doesn't go through the sort of seats that the Lib Dems gorged on two months ago. And a lot of Lib Dem voters rather like opting out of the question of who actually runs Britain.

    One quibblette though. Dave didn't do that much to hit Lib Dem popularity in the 2010 election. What did for them was being in government, especially as a junior coalition partner. That's not easy to engineer and adds another five years to the time in purgatory.

    As a LD I supported the Coalition. Yes there were mistakes but overall it was a golden period of competent government that shines compared to what followed. I don't regret my support, and a lot of good things were achieved.

    There is a real possibility that Labour will lose its majority in 2029 and only be in position to continue in government with LD support. That would be a very difficult decision for the party, not least because keeping in power a government that has lost seats would be out of tune with the electorate. My inclination would be to steer clear of coalition, and vote on a bill by Bill basis.
    It's a lot easier from here for Labour to lose its majority than for the Conservatives to become the biggest party.
    Shift 100 seats from Red to Blue, and you get L320 C220, for example. The current LibDem map really does an excellent job of keeping Conservatives out of government.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    edited September 1
    In the US Trump tries to regain ground lost to Harris by positioning himself as more socially liberal than Vance and DeSantis. He says he wants government or insurance companies to fund IVF after Vance previously supported IVF restrictions and also says he opposes Florida Governor DeSantis' 6 week abortion limit in Florida as 'too short.'

    While Trump is clearly targeting women and Independent voters with his comments he also does risk evangelicals and conservative Catholics staying home with his now more pro choice stance on abortion especially
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-wants-make-ivf-treatments-paid-government-insurance-compani-rcna168804
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,236
    Fishing said:

    The Conservatives need Labour to screw up, which is how you win from Opposition. Then the Reform and Lib Dem problems will solve themselves. It also helps to give people some positive reasons to vote for them, but that's relatively minor.

    Problem for the Tories is increasingly large parts of the UK are falling out of reach for them: London, Scotland, Wales mostly, increasingly the South of England thanks to the Lib Dem insurgency, and possibly the North of England following the failure of Johnson's Red Wall coalition.

    Also the Tories are only getting solid support from the over 75s at the moment, which is unsustainable in the medium term obviously.

    If people stop voting for Starmer's Labour party, their votes have to go somewhere, but they may not stack up very efficiently for the Conservatives.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    edited September 1
    Foxy said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Well quite.

    It's really really hard to map a Conservative path to Downing Street that doesn't go through the sort of seats that the Lib Dems gorged on two months ago. And a lot of Lib Dem voters rather like opting out of the question of who actually runs Britain.

    One quibblette though. Dave didn't do that much to hit Lib Dem popularity in the 2010 election. What did for them was being in government, especially as a junior coalition partner. That's not easy to engineer and adds another five years to the time in purgatory.

    As a LD I supported the Coalition. Yes there were mistakes but overall it was a golden period of competent government that shines compared to what followed. I don't regret my support, and a lot of good things were achieved.

    There is a real possibility that Labour will lose its majority in 2029 and only be in position to continue in government with LD support. That would be a very difficult decision for the party, not least because keeping in power a government that has lost seats would be out of tune with the electorate. My inclination would be to steer clear of coalition, and vote on a bill by Bill basis.
    A minority Labour government propped up by former minister in Cameron's government Ed Davey's party would also likely see many leftwing voters move from Labour to Green. Much as some rightwingers moved from Tory to UKIP in 2015 after the LD coalition government with Cameron's Tories
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,236
    Foxy said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Well quite.

    It's really really hard to map a Conservative path to Downing Street that doesn't go through the sort of seats that the Lib Dems gorged on two months ago. And a lot of Lib Dem voters rather like opting out of the question of who actually runs Britain.

    One quibblette though. Dave didn't do that much to hit Lib Dem popularity in the 2010 election. What did for them was being in government, especially as a junior coalition partner. That's not easy to engineer and adds another five years to the time in purgatory.

    As a LD I supported the Coalition. Yes there were mistakes but overall it was a golden period of competent government that shines compared to what followed. I don't regret my support, and a lot of good things were achieved.

    There is a real possibility that Labour will lose its majority in 2029 and only be in position to continue in government with LD support. That would be a very difficult decision for the party, not least because keeping in power a government that has lost seats would be out of tune with the electorate. My inclination would be to steer clear of coalition, and vote on a bill by Bill basis.
    Suppose the Lib Dems do go into coalition with Labour in 2029 (they are much less likely to do so with the Conservatives not least because of the previous bad treatment by them), the first the Conservatives could capitalise on it would be 2034.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,421
    HYUFD said:

    In the US Trump tries to regain ground lost to Harris by positioning himself as more socially liberal than Vance and DeSantis. He says he wants government or insurance companies to fund IVF after Vance previously supported IVF restrictions and also says he opposes Florida Governor DeSantis' 6 week abortion limit in Florida as 'too short.'

    While Trump is clearly targeting women and Independent voters with his comments he also does risk evangelicals and conservative Catholics staying home with his now more pro choice stance on abortion especially
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-wants-make-ivf-treatments-paid-government-insurance-compani-rcna168804

    Trump said he’d vote against the Florida abortion ban before now saying he’ll vote for it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    HYUFD said:

    In the US Trump tries to regain ground lost to Harris by positioning himself as more socially liberal than Vance and DeSantis. He says he wants government or insurance companies to fund IVF after Vance previously supported IVF restrictions and also says he opposes Florida Governor DeSantis' 6 week abortion limit in Florida as 'too short.'

    While Trump is clearly targeting women and Independent voters with his comments he also does risk evangelicals and conservative Catholics staying home with his now more pro choice stance on abortion especially
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-wants-make-ivf-treatments-paid-government-insurance-compani-rcna168804

    He just changed his mind and said he supports DeSantis.

    No one believes the flip flopping liar about his support for IVF - which every GOP senator but two voted against funding.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934
    edited September 1
    HYUFD said:

    In the US Trump tries to regain ground lost to Harris by positioning himself as more socially liberal than Vance and DeSantis. He says he wants government or insurance companies to fund IVF after Vance previously supported IVF restrictions and also says he opposes Florida Governor DeSantis' 6 week abortion limit in Florida as 'too short.'

    While Trump is clearly targeting women and Independent voters with his comments he also does risk evangelicals and conservative Catholics staying home with his now more pro choice stance on abortion especially
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-wants-make-ivf-treatments-paid-government-insurance-compani-rcna168804

    Trump is all over the place. His "campaign" is a rambling mess in response to Harris' laser-focus since she became the Presidential candidate.

    The Arligton cemetery fiasco started out as an attempt by Trump to win over veterans - and ends with them pissed at the lack of respect at sacred ground. And veterans are 6% of the voters in the US.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,709
    JosiasJessop said:

    ydoethur said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    I totally bonked on my run this morning. I hate bonking on a run.

    *Raises eyebrows*

    May one be permitted to enquire what Mrs Jessop thought of this?
    She thought I should have eaten a proper meal yesterday evening... ;)

    Wait... what.... 'bonking' has more than one meaning?
    It does.

    The second one...well, it's hard.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,114
    FF43 said:

    Fishing said:

    The Conservatives need Labour to screw up, which is how you win from Opposition. Then the Reform and Lib Dem problems will solve themselves. It also helps to give people some positive reasons to vote for them, but that's relatively minor.

    Problem for the Tories is increasingly large parts of the UK are falling out of reach for them: London, Scotland, Wales mostly, increasingly the South of England thanks to the Lib Dem insurgency, and possibly the North of England following the failure of Johnson's Red Wall coalition.

    Also the Tories are only getting solid support from the over 75s at the moment, which is unsustainable in the medium term obviously.

    If people stop voting for Starmer's Labour party, their votes have to go somewhere, but they may not stack up very efficiently for the Conservatives.
    I see further fragmentation of the party system happening. Voters wanting more "Tax and Spend*" are the ones becoming disenchanted with Starmer, and not obviously Tory inclined. They are more likely to go Green or Independent.

    The Tories need to recruit a million voters to replace those lost to the grim reaper just to stand still, though Reeves plans to do that for them with her WFP policy.

    *Tax (on others) and Spend (on people like me) which is a large part of the Reform vote, just with different values of "others" and of "people like me".

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    edited September 1
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the US Trump tries to regain ground lost to Harris by positioning himself as more socially liberal than Vance and DeSantis. He says he wants government or insurance companies to fund IVF after Vance previously supported IVF restrictions and also says he opposes Florida Governor DeSantis' 6 week abortion limit in Florida as 'too short.'

    While Trump is clearly targeting women and Independent voters with his comments he also does risk evangelicals and conservative Catholics staying home with his now more pro choice stance on abortion especially
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-wants-make-ivf-treatments-paid-government-insurance-compani-rcna168804

    He just changed his mind and said he supports DeSantis.

    No one believes the flip flopping liar about his support for IVF - which every GOP senator but two voted against funding.
    Not entirely 'On Friday, Trump told Fox News that he still thinks Florida's ban on abortions after six weeks is too strict.

    However he said would still vote "no" on a measure that would amend the state's constitution to protect abortion rights.

    "You need more time than six weeks," Trump said. "I’ve disagreed with that right from the early primaries when I heard about it."
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy547v72nd4o

    Trump has also now signalled support for legalising marijuana in Florida which DeSantis and GOP leaders oppose there

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/31/us/elections/trump-marijuana-legalization-florida.html
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    MarqueeMark said:

    Trump is all over the place. His "campaign" is a rambling mess in response to Harris' laser-focus since she became the Presidential candidate.

    His proposal to pay for IVF puts him to the left of Obama on healthcare...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,114
    edited September 1
    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Well quite.

    It's really really hard to map a Conservative path to Downing Street that doesn't go through the sort of seats that the Lib Dems gorged on two months ago. And a lot of Lib Dem voters rather like opting out of the question of who actually runs Britain.

    One quibblette though. Dave didn't do that much to hit Lib Dem popularity in the 2010 election. What did for them was being in government, especially as a junior coalition partner. That's not easy to engineer and adds another five years to the time in purgatory.

    As a LD I supported the Coalition. Yes there were mistakes but overall it was a golden period of competent government that shines compared to what followed. I don't regret my support, and a lot of good things were achieved.

    There is a real possibility that Labour will lose its majority in 2029 and only be in position to continue in government with LD support. That would be a very difficult decision for the party, not least because keeping in power a government that has lost seats would be out of tune with the electorate. My inclination would be to steer clear of coalition, and vote on a bill by Bill basis.
    Suppose the Lib Dems do go into coalition with Labour in 2029 (they are much less likely to do so with the Conservatives not least because of the previous bad treatment by them), the first the Conservatives could capitalise on it would be 2034.
    It will all depend on the electoral arithmetic in 2029, but I would be quite opposed to a formal Coalition unless it included a major incentive like Rejoin or implementing STV for Westminster elections or both.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,141
    Stuartinromford said:

    HYUFD said:

    For the LDs to eclipse the Tories they would have to become a genuine Orange Book centre right party and ditch the social democrats. Essentially the SDP wing of the LDs which merged with the Liberals in the 1980s would have to return to Labour. Only that would see the remaining One Nation centre right wing of the Tories permanently shift to the Liberals. The Tories would also need to lose their hard right ERG wing to Reform who would become the main party of populist Brexiteers and overtake the Tories too...

    I think you're assuming an ideological coherence to the Lib Dem vote that isn't there. That's both their superpower and Achilles Heel.

    The Lib Dem path to overtaking the Conservatives goes like this:

    1. Identify thirty or so target seats. They will be overwhelmingly Conservative-held with a chunky Labour vote to squeeze, most will look like current Lib Dem seats- leafy.
    2. Throw the kitchen sink at them for four to five years.
    3. Err...
    4. That's it really.

    Nothing about social democracy vs. orange bookery. Everything about the failings of the government, the uselessnesses of your Tory MP and lots and lots of photos of potholes.

    ..and water sports!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    Starmer is spending the weekend at Balmoral with the King in his first official stay at the King's summer residence as PM
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7v5q000medo
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,932
    Fishing said:

    The Conservatives need Labour to screw up, which is how you win from Opposition. Then the Reform and Lib Dem problems will solve themselves. It also helps to give people some positive reasons to vote for them, but that's relatively minor.

    In the past the opposition was clear. How do you know that when Labour screw up this time it will go to the Conservatives and not LD, Reform, SNP, Green, etc.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,585
    Foxy said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Well quite.

    It's really really hard to map a Conservative path to Downing Street that doesn't go through the sort of seats that the Lib Dems gorged on two months ago. And a lot of Lib Dem voters rather like opting out of the question of who actually runs Britain.

    One quibblette though. Dave didn't do that much to hit Lib Dem popularity in the 2010 election. What did for them was being in government, especially as a junior coalition partner. That's not easy to engineer and adds another five years to the time in purgatory.

    As a LD I supported the Coalition. Yes there were mistakes but overall it was a golden period of competent government that shines compared to what followed. I don't regret my support, and a lot of good things were achieved.

    There is a real possibility that Labour will lose its majority in 2029 and only be in position to continue in government with LD support. That would be a very difficult decision for the party, not least because keeping in power a government that has lost seats would be out of tune with the electorate.
    My inclination would be to steer clear of coalition, and vote on a bill by Bill basis.
    As a LD living where the last Liberal MP was Asquith, I disagree.
    I am not in the LDs to help the nicer parts of Britain become nicer/be kept nice, I want to solve Britain's structural problems.
    And to do that, you need at least junior ministers, with a secretariat of civil servants, to enact those policies.
    If the Lib Dems have the opportunity to join a coalition, and reject it, I leave the party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    edited September 1
    Stuartinromford said:

    HYUFD said:

    For the LDs to eclipse the Tories they would have to become a genuine Orange Book centre right party and ditch the social democrats. Essentially the SDP wing of the LDs which merged with the Liberals in the 1980s would have to return to Labour. Only that would see the remaining One Nation centre right wing of the Tories permanently shift to the Liberals. The Tories would also need to lose their hard right ERG wing to Reform who would become the main party of populist Brexiteers and overtake the Tories too...

    I think you're assuming an ideological coherence to the Lib Dem vote that isn't there. That's both their superpower and Achilles Heel.

    The Lib Dem path to overtaking the Conservatives goes like this:

    1. Identify thirty or so target seats. They will be overwhelmingly Conservative-held with a chunky Labour vote to squeeze, most will look like current Lib Dem seats- leafy.
    2. Throw the kitchen sink at them for four to five years.
    3. Err...
    4. That's it really.

    Nothing about social democracy vs. orange bookery. Everything about the failings of the government, the uselessnesses of your Tory MP and lots and lots of photos of potholes.

    Half the LDs are social democrats, winning a few more Tory seats in by election style campaigns ain't making them anywhere near the main centre right party in the UK unless the Orange Bookers force the social democrats out and take full control
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399
    Trump 1.98
    Kamala 2.12

    Republican Party 1.94
    Democratic Party 2.06

    Note that in at least some bookmakers, prices on the named candidates and their parties are identical, in which case back the party as insurance against reckless bus drivers.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,780
    Stuartinromford said:

    HYUFD said:

    For the LDs to eclipse the Tories they would have to become a genuine Orange Book centre right party and ditch the social democrats. Essentially the SDP wing of the LDs which merged with the Liberals in the 1980s would have to return to Labour. Only that would see the remaining One Nation centre right wing of the Tories permanently shift to the Liberals. The Tories would also need to lose their hard right ERG wing to Reform who would become the main party of populist Brexiteers and overtake the Tories too...

    I think you're assuming an ideological coherence to the Lib Dem vote that isn't there. That's both their superpower and Achilles Heel.

    The Lib Dem path to overtaking the Conservatives goes like this:

    1. Identify thirty or so target seats. They will be overwhelmingly Conservative-held with a chunky Labour vote to squeeze, most will look like current Lib Dem seats- leafy.
    2. Throw the kitchen sink at them for four to five years.
    3. Err...
    4. That's it really.

    Nothing about social democracy vs. orange bookery. Everything about the failings of the government, the uselessnesses of your Tory MP and lots and lots of photos of potholes.

    You forgot nimbyism, more nimbyism and yet more nimbyism.

    Meanwhile if Starmer and Reeves want to build all those new houses and other developments they will have to destroy the LibDem's nimbyism in all those new LibDem seats in southern England.

    The Lib-Lab development wars should be fascinating.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,114
    edited September 1
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    HYUFD said:

    For the LDs to eclipse the Tories they would have to become a genuine Orange Book centre right party and ditch the social democrats. Essentially the SDP wing of the LDs which merged with the Liberals in the 1980s would have to return to Labour. Only that would see the remaining One Nation centre right wing of the Tories permanently shift to the Liberals. The Tories would also need to lose their hard right ERG wing to Reform who would become the main party of populist Brexiteers and overtake the Tories too...

    I think you're assuming an ideological coherence to the Lib Dem vote that isn't there. That's both their superpower and Achilles Heel.

    The Lib Dem path to overtaking the Conservatives goes like this:

    1. Identify thirty or so target seats. They will be overwhelmingly Conservative-held with a chunky Labour vote to squeeze, most will look like current Lib Dem seats- leafy.
    2. Throw the kitchen sink at them for four to five years.
    3. Err...
    4. That's it really.

    Nothing about social democracy vs. orange bookery. Everything about the failings of the government, the uselessnesses of your Tory MP and lots and lots of photos of potholes.

    ..and water sports!
    The "Fun Dad" campaign approach was a real electoral hit, delivering both turnout and seats. The Dems are doing the same with Walz.

    I am sure that other parties are surely taking note, though hard to see Swinney, Jenrick or Tugenhadt carrying it off, let alone Starmer. Rayner probably could as fun Gran.

    I think the real electoral test of Labour will be the May 2026 Holyrood elections. SLAB are the only realistic alternative Scottish government to the SNP, even if as coalition leader, and after 2 years we will see if Lab are still considered the least bad.

    The SNP has as much or more to sort out as the Tories in terms of party direction, and less time to do it in. SLAB have the challenge of selling austerity to a people that don't want it. It really will be interesting to see who succeeds.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    HYUFD said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    HYUFD said:

    For the LDs to eclipse the Tories they would have to become a genuine Orange Book centre right party and ditch the social democrats. Essentially the SDP wing of the LDs which merged with the Liberals in the 1980s would have to return to Labour. Only that would see the remaining One Nation centre right wing of the Tories permanently shift to the Liberals. The Tories would also need to lose their hard right ERG wing to Reform who would become the main party of populist Brexiteers and overtake the Tories too...

    I think you're assuming an ideological coherence to the Lib Dem vote that isn't there. That's both their superpower and Achilles Heel.

    The Lib Dem path to overtaking the Conservatives goes like this:

    1. Identify thirty or so target seats. They will be overwhelmingly Conservative-held with a chunky Labour vote to squeeze, most will look like current Lib Dem seats- leafy.
    2. Throw the kitchen sink at them for four to five years.
    3. Err...
    4. That's it really.

    Nothing about social democracy vs. orange bookery. Everything about the failings of the government, the uselessnesses of your Tory MP and lots and lots of photos of potholes.

    Half the LDs are social democrats, winning a few more Tory seats in by election style campaigns ain't making them anywhere near the main centre right party in the UK unless the Orange Bookers force the social democrats out and take full control
    The LDs would have to become like the Australian, German or Japanese Liberals or Macron's party
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,495
    JosiasJessop said:

    I totally bonked on my run this morning. I hate bonking on a run.

    Was it with a total stranger?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    Fishing said:

    The Conservatives need Labour to screw up, which is how you win from Opposition. Then the Reform and Lib Dem problems will solve themselves. It also helps to give people some positive reasons to vote for them, but that's relatively minor.

    Problem for the Tories is increasingly large parts of the UK are falling out of reach for them: London, Scotland, Wales mostly, increasingly the South of England thanks to the Lib Dem insurgency, and possibly the North of England following the failure of Johnson's Red Wall coalition.

    Also the Tories are only getting solid support from the over 75s at the moment, which is unsustainable in the medium term obviously.

    If people stop voting for Starmer's Labour party, their votes have to go somewhere, but they may not stack up very efficiently for the Conservatives.
    I see further fragmentation of the party system happening. Voters wanting more "Tax and Spend*" are the ones becoming disenchanted with Starmer, and not obviously Tory inclined. They are more likely to go Green or Independent.

    The Tories need to recruit a million voters to replace those lost to the grim reaper just to stand still, though Reeves plans to do that for them with her WFP policy.

    *Tax (on others) and Spend (on people like me) which is a large part of the Reform vote, just with different values of "others" and of "people like me".

    Yes, although I think there is also some cut-through with two tier Keir as voters contrast swift and decisive action against rioters (and more often, the riot-adjacent) with foot-dragging on other crimes from Carnival stabbings all the way down to shoplifting.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,676
    Stuartinromford said:

    HYUFD said:

    For the LDs to eclipse the Tories they would have to become a genuine Orange Book centre right party and ditch the social democrats. Essentially the SDP wing of the LDs which merged with the Liberals in the 1980s would have to return to Labour. Only that would see the remaining One Nation centre right wing of the Tories permanently shift to the Liberals. The Tories would also need to lose their hard right ERG wing to Reform who would become the main party of populist Brexiteers and overtake the Tories too...

    I think you're assuming an ideological coherence to the Lib Dem vote that isn't there. That's both their superpower and Achilles Heel.

    The Lib Dem path to overtaking the Conservatives goes like this:

    1. Identify thirty or so target seats. They will be overwhelmingly Conservative-held with a chunky Labour vote to squeeze, most will look like current Lib Dem seats- leafy.
    2. Throw the kitchen sink at them for four to five years.
    3. Err...
    4. That's it really.

    Nothing about social democracy vs. orange bookery. Everything about the failings of the government, the uselessnesses of your Tory MP and lots and lots of photos of potholes.

    Spot on. Policy doesn't come into it. Unrelenting hard work at local level and good communications with residents is the Lib Dem way. That's why the 72 seats will stick and others will follow.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,495
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Posts still reading top to bottom, for me at least.

    Odd, nothing has changed for me.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,668
    JosiasJessop said:

    I totally bonked on my run this morning. I hate bonking on a run.

    I hope that was because your wife came with you.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,141
    edited September 1
    Foxy said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    HYUFD said:

    For the LDs to eclipse the Tories they would have to become a genuine Orange Book centre right party and ditch the social democrats. Essentially the SDP wing of the LDs which merged with the Liberals in the 1980s would have to return to Labour. Only that would see the remaining One Nation centre right wing of the Tories permanently shift to the Liberals. The Tories would also need to lose their hard right ERG wing to Reform who would become the main party of populist Brexiteers and overtake the Tories too...

    I think you're assuming an ideological coherence to the Lib Dem vote that isn't there. That's both their superpower and Achilles Heel.

    The Lib Dem path to overtaking the Conservatives goes like this:

    1. Identify thirty or so target seats. They will be overwhelmingly Conservative-held with a chunky Labour vote to squeeze, most will look like current Lib Dem seats- leafy.
    2. Throw the kitchen sink at them for four to five years.
    3. Err...
    4. That's it really.

    Nothing about social democracy vs. orange bookery. Everything about the failings of the government, the uselessnesses of your Tory MP and lots and lots of photos of potholes.

    ..and water sports!
    The "Fun Dad" campaign approach was a real electoral hit, delivering both turnout and seats. The Dems are doing the same with Walz.

    I am sure that other parties are surely taking note, though hard to see Swinney, Jenrick or Tugenhadt carrying it off, let alone Starmer. Rayner probably could as fun Gran.

    I think the real electoral test of Labour will be the May 2026 Holyrood elections. SLAB are the only realistic alternative Scottish government to the SNP, even if as coalition leader, and after 2 years we will see if Lab are still considered the least bad.

    The SNP has as much or more to sort out as the Tories in terms of party direction, and less time to do it in. SLAB have the challenge of selling austerity to a people that don't want it. It really will be interesting to see who succeeds.
    It’ll certainly be interesting to see what wizard wheeze SLab come up with after kicking the arse out of ‘read my lips, no austerity under Labour’. At least as interesting will be the Senedd election where Labour will be defending the record of the incumbents while simultaneously attacking that of those in Holyrood.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    Foxy said:

    I think the real electoral test of Labour will be the May 2026 Holyrood elections. SLAB are the only realistic alternative Scottish government to the SNP, even if as coalition leader, and after 2 years we will see if Lab are still considered the least bad.

    The SNP has as much or more to sort out as the Tories in terms of party direction, and less time to do it in. SLAB have the challenge of selling austerity to a people that don't want it. It really will be interesting to see who succeeds.

    Even long term SNP supporters are in despair

    https://www.holyrood.com/comment/view,failing-and-flailing-the-snp-has-lost-sight-of-what-it-is-for

    The slightly interesting suggestion in that article is, a bit like Brexit, the separatists best hope of winning a vote was by never having to show or explain how it would work.

    Being the party of Government, and totally fucking it up, has soured the project.

    The Tories were lucky they didn't completely fuck it up till after the vote
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,125
    edited September 1
    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    The Conservatives need Labour to screw up, which is how you win from Opposition. Then the Reform and Lib Dem problems will solve themselves. It also helps to give people some positive reasons to vote for them, but that's relatively minor.

    There are more than 2 parties to choose from nowadays, as the last election showed. It isn't enough for the Tories to win by awaiting buggins turn.
    That's a bizarre point. There have been more than two national parties for decades. The Liberal Party has been around since the 1830s at least. And there have been parties to the right of the Conservatives for decades. But as far as one can tell now, there are only two parties with a serious chance of forming a government in 2029 and the fact that the Conservatives, even after four general election victories in a row, presiding over a pandemic, an unprecedented peacetime collapse in living standards, a Prime Minister without any vision or charisma, could still come second shows how resilient the Conservative Party is.

    Of course it isn't guaranteed to survive, but when Labour screw up badly enough, the rest will fall into place. And if it doesn't, then they will continue in government and who leads the Conservative Party is irrelevant.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    Good Morning, Happy Autumn
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,676
    HYUFD said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    HYUFD said:

    For the LDs to eclipse the Tories they would have to become a genuine Orange Book centre right party and ditch the social democrats. Essentially the SDP wing of the LDs which merged with the Liberals in the 1980s would have to return to Labour. Only that would see the remaining One Nation centre right wing of the Tories permanently shift to the Liberals. The Tories would also need to lose their hard right ERG wing to Reform who would become the main party of populist Brexiteers and overtake the Tories too...

    I think you're assuming an ideological coherence to the Lib Dem vote that isn't there. That's both their superpower and Achilles Heel.

    The Lib Dem path to overtaking the Conservatives goes like this:

    1. Identify thirty or so target seats. They will be overwhelmingly Conservative-held with a chunky Labour vote to squeeze, most will look like current Lib Dem seats- leafy.
    2. Throw the kitchen sink at them for four to five years.
    3. Err...
    4. That's it really.

    Nothing about social democracy vs. orange bookery. Everything about the failings of the government, the uselessnesses of your Tory MP and lots and lots of photos of potholes.

    Half the LDs are social democrats, winning a few more Tory seats in by election style campaigns ain't making them anywhere near the main centre right party in the UK unless the Orange Bookers force the social democrats out and take full control
    I know lots of LDs very well. I don't know who are "social democrats" and who are "Orange bookers" and I suspect neither do they.
    What unites us is making a real practical improvement to people's lives without ideological labels or hangups.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Scott_xP said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Trump is all over the place. His "campaign" is a rambling mess in response to Harris' laser-focus since she became the Presidential candidate.

    His proposal to pay for IVF puts him to the left of Obama on healthcare...
    IVF is expensive; no one believes him.

    The Dems should bring back their funding bill before November.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399
    Leon said:

    Good Morning, Happy Autumn

    Indian summer, so far. The first of each month is bill-paying day for me, so rarely happy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    I read on TwiX someone comparing Reeves to a plastic figure from The Lego Movie. That weird unmoving carapace of black hair, her rigid body language

    A brilliant analogy. And not great for a government leadership already accused of being robotic
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Foxy said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Well quite.

    It's really really hard to map a Conservative path to Downing Street that doesn't go through the sort of seats that the Lib Dems gorged on two months ago. And a lot of Lib Dem voters rather like opting out of the question of who actually runs Britain.

    One quibblette though. Dave didn't do that much to hit Lib Dem popularity in the 2010 election. What did for them was being in government, especially as a junior coalition partner. That's not easy to engineer and adds another five years to the time in purgatory.

    As a LD I supported the Coalition. Yes there were mistakes but overall it was a golden period of competent government that shines compared to what followed. I don't regret my support, and a lot of good things were achieved.

    There is a real possibility that Labour will lose its majority in 2029 and only be in position to continue in government with LD support. That would be a very difficult decision for the party, not least because keeping in power a government that has lost seats would be out of tune with the electorate.
    My inclination would be to steer clear of coalition, and vote on a bill by Bill basis.
    As a LD living where the last Liberal MP was Asquith, I disagree.
    I am not in the LDs to help the nicer parts of Britain become nicer/be kept nice, I want to solve Britain's structural problems.
    And to do that, you need at least junior ministers, with a secretariat of civil servants, to enact those policies.
    If the Lib Dems have the opportunity to join a coalition, and reject it, I leave the party.
    Depends on the terms.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,012
    HYUFD said:

    In the US Trump tries to regain ground lost to Harris by positioning himself as more socially liberal than Vance and DeSantis. He says he wants government or insurance companies to fund IVF after Vance previously supported IVF restrictions and also says he opposes Florida Governor DeSantis' 6 week abortion limit in Florida as 'too short.'

    While Trump is clearly targeting women and Independent voters with his comments he also does risk evangelicals and conservative Catholics staying home with his now more pro choice stance on abortion especially
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-wants-make-ivf-treatments-paid-government-insurance-compani-rcna168804

    While right wing shock jocks come out with filth like this the gender gap, already huge, is just going to grow:
    "“Kamala Harris has done nothing but climb the ladder of power since the moment she got up off her knees in front of Willie Brown,” Erickson spewed. Attacking Harris’ short-lived relationship with the former San Francisco mayor is a common refrain in current right-wing discourse as frustration mounts with conservatives’ inability to land any real blows on her soaring campaign."
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,668
    Fishing said:

    The Conservatives need Labour to screw up, which is how you win from Opposition. Then the Reform and Lib Dem problems will solve themselves. It also helps to give people some positive reasons to vote for them, but that's relatively minor.

    Labour will do the job for the Conservatives.

    They simply won't be able to resist targeting higher earners, and that will hit people in many of the affluent seats the LDs hold.

    Anti-Conservative voting can very quickly turn to anti-Labour voting.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Leon said:

    Good Morning, Happy Autumn

    Indian summer, so far. The first of each month is bill-paying day for me, so rarely happy.
    I always wheel this quote at this time of year so once again

    “September kills me with its sadness” - Lord Byron

    However “autumn is the mind’s true spring” - someone else

    For me it is a late rise then hire a car at Tivat airport and then - onwards to the Accursed Mountains!

    No joke. That’s what they’re called. Brilliant

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accursed_Mountains
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,668
    Foxy said:

    Much as I would like to see the LDs overtake the Conservatives in Parliament, we do have a long way to run before any election.

    The miserablism and coercive approach of Labour is doing it no favours, but we have no real polling yet, and the pollsters have a lot to do to get their models right. In particular their turnout prediction.

    Street looks to be the first significant Tory to have worked their way through the grief response to resolution, perhaps because of a 2 month headstart.

    The Liberal Democrats will only overtake the Conservatives if they became the new competent centre-right party challenging for office.

    Since they don't want to do that, they won't.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,053
    Stuartinromford said:

    HYUFD said:

    For the LDs to eclipse the Tories they would have to become a genuine Orange Book centre right party and ditch the social democrats. Essentially the SDP wing of the LDs which merged with the Liberals in the 1980s would have to return to Labour. Only that would see the remaining One Nation centre right wing of the Tories permanently shift to the Liberals. The Tories would also need to lose their hard right ERG wing to Reform who would become the main party of populist Brexiteers and overtake the Tories too...

    I think you're assuming an ideological coherence to the Lib Dem vote that isn't there. That's both their superpower and Achilles Heel.

    The Lib Dem path to overtaking the Conservatives goes like this:

    1. Identify thirty or so target seats. They will be overwhelmingly Conservative-held with a chunky Labour vote to squeeze, most will look like current Lib Dem seats- leafy.
    2. Throw the kitchen sink at them for four to five years.
    3. Err...
    4. That's it really.

    Nothing about social democracy vs. orange bookery. Everything about the failings of the government, the uselessnesses of your Tory MP and lots and lots of photos of potholes.

    2.5 Win council seats in 2025 and control more councils.
    2.6 Fix the potholes.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,668
    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Leon said:

    Good Morning, Happy Autumn

    Indian summer, so far. The first of each month is bill-paying day for me, so rarely happy.
    I always wheel this quote at this time of year so once again

    “September kills me with its sadness” - Lord Byron

    However “autumn is the mind’s true spring” - someone else

    For me it is a late rise then hire a car at Tivat airport and then - onwards to the Accursed Mountains!

    No joke. That’s what they’re called. Brilliant

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accursed_Mountains
    November to February (those four months) are the crap ones, and sometimes March when Winter doesn't fuck off.

    September and October are OK.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited September 1
    Good news from Pennsylvania for non Trump arselickers . The GOPs continued attempts to stop people from voting was dismissed by the state court .

    The GOP wanted any mail in ballot envelopes with a missing handwritten date or the wrong date on thrown out even if they arrived in time to normally be counted .


  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Leon said:

    Good Morning, Happy Autumn

    Indian summer, so far. The first of each month is bill-paying day for me, so rarely happy.
    I always wheel this quote at this time of year so once again

    “September kills me with its sadness” - Lord Byron

    However “autumn is the mind’s true spring” - someone else

    For me it is a late rise then hire a car at Tivat airport and then - onwards to the Accursed Mountains!

    No joke. That’s what they’re called. Brilliant

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accursed_Mountains
    November to February (those four months) are the crap ones, and sometimes March when Winter doesn't fuck off.

    September and October are OK.
    September is often climatically rather pleasant, especially in the first half especially in southern England

    It’s the principle of it that hurts. The end of summer. The end of long warm evenings. The sense of slow but accelerating decline, like life, that ends in the winter of death

    Ok, time for the Accursed Mountains
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,585
    Casino_Royale said:

    Fishing said:

    The Conservatives need Labour to screw up, which is how you win from Opposition. Then the Reform and Lib Dem problems will solve themselves. It also helps to give people some positive reasons to vote for them, but that's relatively minor.

    Labour will do the job for the Conservatives.

    They simply won't be able to resist targeting higher earners, and that will hit people in many of the affluent seats the LDs hold.

    Anti-Conservative voting can very quickly turn to anti-Labour voting.
    And in the LD seats , their bar-charts will show that they are best placed to beat Labour.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,053
    Casino_Royale said:

    Fishing said:

    The Conservatives need Labour to screw up, which is how you win from Opposition. Then the Reform and Lib Dem problems will solve themselves. It also helps to give people some positive reasons to vote for them, but that's relatively minor.

    Labour will do the job for the Conservatives.

    They simply won't be able to resist targeting higher earners, and that will hit people in many of the affluent seats the LDs hold.

    Anti-Conservative voting can very quickly turn to anti-Labour voting.
    It doesn’t mean that current Lib Dem voters will switch to the Conservatives, though.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    @JLPartnersPolls
    NEW: polling of Conservative members in The Mail on Sunday

    *Prospective match-ups*

    Tugendhat 44% VS Jenrick 32%

    Badenoch 34% VS Jenrick 35%

    Tugendhat 48% VS Patel 40%

    Badenoch 38% VS Patel 29%

    Jenrick 42% VS Patel 35%

    Badenoch 42% VS Tugendhat 39%

    https://x.com/JLPartnersPolls/status/1830123800202969120
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,943
    Casino_Royale said:

    Fishing said:

    The Conservatives need Labour to screw up, which is how you win from Opposition. Then the Reform and Lib Dem problems will solve themselves. It also helps to give people some positive reasons to vote for them, but that's relatively minor.

    Labour will do the job for the Conservatives.

    They simply won't be able to resist targeting higher earners, and that will hit people in many of the affluent seats the LDs hold.

    Anti-Conservative voting can very quickly turn to anti-Labour voting.
    Sure! But anti-Labour doesn't mean they will vote for you either. Because you taxed the country into the ground and fucked business.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,668
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Fishing said:

    The Conservatives need Labour to screw up, which is how you win from Opposition. Then the Reform and Lib Dem problems will solve themselves. It also helps to give people some positive reasons to vote for them, but that's relatively minor.

    Labour will do the job for the Conservatives.

    They simply won't be able to resist targeting higher earners, and that will hit people in many of the affluent seats the LDs hold.

    Anti-Conservative voting can very quickly turn to anti-Labour voting.
    And in the LD seats , their bar-charts will show that they are best placed to beat Labour.
    It's not that mathematical: if people want Labour out they will stop voting for the LDs and start voting Conservative.

    The LDs are a "safe" non-Labour option when people want the Conservatives out.

    It doesn't work in reverse. The massive Cleggasm was a huge amount of peddling to stand still, and he still went backwards a bit.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,114
    edited September 1
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Foxy said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    HYUFD said:

    For the LDs to eclipse the Tories they would have to become a genuine Orange Book centre right party and ditch the social democrats. Essentially the SDP wing of the LDs which merged with the Liberals in the 1980s would have to return to Labour. Only that would see the remaining One Nation centre right wing of the Tories permanently shift to the Liberals. The Tories would also need to lose their hard right ERG wing to Reform who would become the main party of populist Brexiteers and overtake the Tories too...

    I think you're assuming an ideological coherence to the Lib Dem vote that isn't there. That's both their superpower and Achilles Heel.

    The Lib Dem path to overtaking the Conservatives goes like this:

    1. Identify thirty or so target seats. They will be overwhelmingly Conservative-held with a chunky Labour vote to squeeze, most will look like current Lib Dem seats- leafy.
    2. Throw the kitchen sink at them for four to five years.
    3. Err...
    4. That's it really.

    Nothing about social democracy vs. orange bookery. Everything about the failings of the government, the uselessnesses of your Tory MP and lots and lots of photos of potholes.

    ..and water sports!
    The "Fun Dad" campaign approach was a real electoral hit, delivering both turnout and seats. The Dems are doing the same with Walz.

    I am sure that other parties are surely taking note, though hard to see Swinney, Jenrick or Tugenhadt carrying it off, let alone Starmer. Rayner probably could as fun Gran.

    I think the real electoral test of Labour will be the May 2026 Holyrood elections. SLAB are the only realistic alternative Scottish government to the SNP, even if as coalition leader, and after 2 years we will see if Lab are still considered the least bad.

    The SNP has as much or more to sort out as the Tories in terms of party direction, and less time to do it in. SLAB have the challenge of selling austerity to a people that don't want it. It really will be interesting to see who succeeds.
    It’ll certainly be interesting to see what wizard wheeze SLab come up with after kicking the arse out of ‘read my lips, no austerity under Labour’. At least as interesting will be the Senedd election where Labour will be defending the record of the incumbents while simultaneously attacking that of those in Holyrood.
    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    I think the real electoral test of Labour will be the May 2026 Holyrood elections. SLAB are the only realistic alternative Scottish government to the SNP, even if as coalition leader, and after 2 years we will see if Lab are still considered the least bad.

    The SNP has as much or more to sort out as the Tories in terms of party direction, and less time to do it in. SLAB have the challenge of selling austerity to a people that don't want it. It really will be interesting to see who succeeds.

    Even long term SNP supporters are in despair

    https://www.holyrood.com/comment/view,failing-and-flailing-the-snp-has-lost-sight-of-what-it-is-for

    The slightly interesting suggestion in that article is, a bit like Brexit, the separatists best hope of winning a vote was by never having to show or explain how it would work.

    Being the party of Government, and totally fucking it up, has soured the project.

    The Tories were lucky they didn't completely fuck it up till after the vote
    Yes, and that is what makes the race so interesting for Holyrood, and in Wales too, though there the opposition to Labour is more split.

    Can the SNP really expect another term after the shambles of this one? Will they get a shellacking as in the Westminster seats?

    Or can Sarwar sell unending winter, having promised not to do so, and before any green shoots appear?

    It is an intriguing contest.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,767
    malcolmg said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    I totally bonked on my run this morning. I hate bonking on a run.

    Was it with a total stranger?
    Gin a body …

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,767
    Leon said:

    Good Morning, Happy Autumn

    Season of mellow fruitfulness … the squirrels have stripped our Victoria plum trees, again!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,437
    malcolmg said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    I totally bonked on my run this morning. I hate bonking on a run.

    Was it with a total stranger?
    Nah, I bonked all on my own. It's quite easy if you don't eat properly.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Am I the only one who has no idea what @JosiasJessop is talking about? I run regularly and have never heard of bonking, beyond the obvious.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143
    rottenborough said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Posts still reading top to bottom, for me at least.

    We are stuck with for the foreseeable thanks to Vanilla. @rcs1000 has been looking into it. There was discussion on yesterday's thread.
    Might a one click button to the end of the thread at the bottom of the header be a temporary fix?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Scott_xP said:

    @JLPartnersPolls
    NEW: polling of Conservative members in The Mail on Sunday

    *Prospective match-ups*

    Tugendhat 44% VS Jenrick 32%

    Badenoch 34% VS Jenrick 35%

    Tugendhat 48% VS Patel 40%

    Badenoch 38% VS Patel 29%

    Jenrick 42% VS Patel 35%

    Badenoch 42% VS Tugendhat 39%

    https://x.com/JLPartnersPolls/status/1830123800202969120

    JENRICK
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,213
    No doubt a sight to get all hot blooded patriots doing mini fist pumps: Yvette’s deporting people.

    https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/1830164143422242999?s=46
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    nico679 said:

    Good news from Pennsylvania for non Trump arselickers . The GOPs continued attempts to stop people from voting was dismissed by the state court .

    The GOP wanted any mail in ballot envelopes with a missing handwritten date or the wrong date on thrown out even if they arrived in time to normally be counted .


    The arselickers will pop up soon to tell you why are wrong and that this is in fact good news for their man.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,916
    I think too much is written around the challenges of the electoral geography for a particular party. How often have we seen it written how challenging it is for one of the main parties to win certain seats - until it isn’t. 2019 and 2024 should both show that if the voter coalition is there, the seats will follow.

    What is absolutely correct is that the Tory voter coalition is splintered, and it will be a significant challenge for them to reassemble with both the LDs and Reform parked on their lawn.

    GE 2029 will be won by the party that can assemble the biggest coalition of voter interests. At this point I dont count out much - including a third party surge.
This discussion has been closed.