That will really encourage Israel to stop for sure.
I remember thinking back in October that, given Hamas must have calculated on a very strong Israeli response when planning the massacre, in order to confound Hamas Israel would have to react in a way Hamas weren't expecting.
That would either mean "under-reacting" or "over-reacting". As the former (turning the other cheek) would have been politically unacceptable then, as sure as eggs are eggs, "over-reacting" it would be. And so here we are. Gaza flattened and Israeli air-strikes on Hamas leaders wherever they happen to be operating, even if it's in Iran. Presumably the Hamas planners didn't plan on being dead.
The sad truth is that no-one is really interested in the Palestinians including - in fact, especially - their fellow Muslim Arabs. At least not those in government. Gaza is not important economically, militarily, or in any other way to those playing realpolitik. I'm struggling to see how any of this ends.
I don't think it does. Israel seem to have decided that peace only gives Hamas a chance to launch another surprise attack, so permanent war it is. That suits Hamas too. They will fight until everyone in Gaza is dead.
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
I would never consider leaving England under any circumstances short of civil war. But from a purely monetary point of view it would certainly be tempting. Currently I pay 49% of my turnover in tax which I think is a ridiculous state of affairs.
More likely, as Labour destroy our energy independence and we move to more and more imports, I will probably move back to working overseas permanently on rotation. Not something I want to do but needs must. It improves both my job prospects and my tax situation. I will still be providing the UK with oil and gas - I will just be doing it from the Middle East or South America.
Many multinationals are offering working from any country they have an office in.
It’s the flip side of WFH.
I seem to recall a lot of Tories saying WFH was terrible and people needed to go back to the office.
There’s a difference between them, who can be trusted to WFH, and the oiks they employ, who can’t.
Ah, yes, like there’s a difference between them, who can be trusted with freedom of movement, and the oiks they employ, who can’t!
And whom they conned into voting for Brexit.
Conned into having full employment and pay rises.
But how terrible that they've lost their 'right' to pick turnips in Transylvania.
Yet strangely those pay rises and full employment are forcing Brexiteer citizens of nowhere to flee these shores as the public sector has to match pay and conditions to keep staff.
It's almost as if they don't give a damn about levelling up.
Why are you so angry recently?
denial anger bargaining depression acceptance
If you think the grief cycle is the only cause of anger then you are pretty foolish.
In most unexpected news ever: the paralympics triathlon, which was supposed to occur this morning, has been delayed until tomorrow. Because the water quality in the Seine is shite. Quite literally.
They spent a billion Euros to clean up the river, yet the news system cannot even cope with the excess rainfall in summer.
That will really encourage Israel to stop for sure.
I remember thinking back in October that, given Hamas must have calculated on a very strong Israeli response when planning the massacre, in order to confound Hamas Israel would have to react in a way Hamas weren't expecting.
That would either mean "under-reacting" or "over-reacting". As the former (turning the other cheek) would have been politically unacceptable then, as sure as eggs are eggs, "over-reacting" it would be. And so here we are. Gaza flattened and Israeli air-strikes on Hamas leaders wherever they happen to be operating, even if it's in Iran. Presumably the Hamas planners didn't plan on being dead.
The sad truth is that no-one is really interested in the Palestinians including - in fact, especially - their fellow Muslim Arabs. At least not those in government. Gaza is not important economically, militarily, or in any other way to those playing realpolitik. I'm struggling to see how any of this ends.
Wes Streeting came within 600 votes of losing his seat to someone who DOES care!
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
I would never consider leaving England under any circumstances short of civil war. But from a purely monetary point of view it would certainly be tempting. Currently I pay 49% of my turnover in tax which I think is a ridiculous state of affairs.
More likely, as Labour destroy our energy independence and we move to more and more imports, I will probably move back to working overseas permanently on rotation. Not something I want to do but needs must. It improves both my job prospects and my tax situation. I will still be providing the UK with oil and gas - I will just be doing it from the Middle East or South America.
Many multinationals are offering working from any country they have an office in.
It’s the flip side of WFH.
I seem to recall a lot of Tories saying WFH was terrible and people needed to go back to the office.
There’s a difference between them, who can be trusted to WFH, and the oiks they employ, who can’t.
Ah, yes, like there’s a difference between them, who can be trusted with freedom of movement, and the oiks they employ, who can’t!
And whom they conned into voting for Brexit.
Conned into having full employment and pay rises.
But how terrible that they've lost their 'right' to pick turnips in Transylvania.
Yet strangely those pay rises and full employment are forcing Brexiteer citizens of nowhere to flee these shores as the public sector has to match pay and conditions to keep staff.
It's almost as if they don't give a damn about levelling up.
Why are you so angry recently?
I am not angry.
A bit tetchy about Brexiteers who whinge about paying for what they voted for, higher pay for their fellow citizens and levelling up of neglected areas, levelling up requiring relative progress compared with their own favoured areas. It isn't ex miners in Mansfield talking of going into tax exile.
I didn't vote for higher pay for train drivers and other union dominated industries.
The public sector don't realise they're born compared to the private sector. Safe jobs and decent pensions, particularly for those who aren't strong performers. It is they, not those of us who pay the bill, who ought to stop whingeing.
But more important than that, I didn't vote for puritanical socialists to tell people what they should and shouldn't do in their private lives.
I suspect Labour polling at 30% is going to looked upon wistfully by those on the left come September 1 2025....
Apart from Gilbert & Sullivan, computer gaming and dressage I can't think of anything I'm less interested in than GE Voting Intention polls when the last GE was 2 months ago and the next one is in 5 years.
So one question that arises from this thread is what happens to the Lib Dem commitment to PR?
Do they hold with their commitment to what they perceive as a fair electoral system - even though they run the risk of ending up in 4th place behind Labour, Tory and Reform - or do they decide that in the new normal they are better off sticking with FPTP which may welll see them as the official opposition at the next election or the one after?
For all my dislike of PR I hope they stick to their guns as it is bad to see parties and politicians abandoning long held beliefs simply for the sake of electoral advantage.
For the record I think they will stick with the PR commitment but it is perhaps a question worth asking at least.
Of course they will stick with PR. One rare election where they (almost) get a fair share of the seats, 11% of seats for 12% of votes is hardly going to move opinion.
Now if somehow the LDs had got the Labour results of 63% of seats and 33% of voters I suspect they would find a way to avoid implementation (royal commission and referendum), so yes parties are hugely cynical on PR, but even this time the LDs have a lower share of seats than votes.
In Richmond, Lib Dems got 56% share of the vote in the last 2022 council elections and 48/54 seats. The Tories got 27% of the vote and 1/54 seats (now zero). That is ridiculously unfair. LDs still campaign for PR even though it would mean that the Tories would have approximately 15 seats on the Council.
Yes, the Tories are greatly disliked and do not have anything sensible to say, but theirs is an important point of view and they should have a fair amount of representation.
Apart from Gilbert & Sullivan, computer gaming and dressage I can't think of anything I'm less interested in than GE Voting Intention polls when the last GE was 2 months ago and the next one is in 5 years.
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
And with remote working now available to basically anyone suddenly people are much more mobile. Were I to go both my wife and I would keep our current jobs and we'd just shift to overseas payroll. I'd need to come to the London office for 2 working days per month and my wife's terms are 10 working days per quarter.
Yes. And of course all the “oh they’ll never go” lefty wankers ignore this. A revolution. I can do all my work abroad without a hitch. Even things like moving are so much easier. Books and music are all digital and kept on tiny devices
Plus British weather is shit and worsening and British towns are ugly and getting uglier and mass immigration is, shall we say, not necessarily always adding to the attractions of UK life
I noticed the other day that England and Wales have the highest rape rates in Europe. Higher than Sweden. Absolutely true. Go look for yourself
As someone who has benefitted from opportunities to live and work in numerous different countries, the idea of choosing to live your life purely to minimise how much tax you pay is just baffling.
Apart from Gilbert & Sullivan, computer gaming and dressage I can't think of anything I'm less interested in than GE Voting Intention polls when the last GE was 2 months ago and the next one is in 5 years.
But thank you, John.
The centrist Dad 'boring is hip' line is going to be wearing a bit thin when Starmer is polling in the 20s...
He is a really effective Chief Exec. Excellent at delivery.
His political antennae, however, are off on this.
Until Reform is extinguished, at least in 2019 Tory seats, there is no chance of a Tory govt.
Thing is that he is wrong/right and you are right/wrong. To get anywhere, the Conservatives need to do two things. One is to strangle Reform and the other is to do something equally ruthless to the idea of blue Liberals. Lib Dems on 70 also kills off a Conservative majority.
And I don't think anyone has a plan to solve either of those problems without making the other one worse.
(When did Red Wall Theory come into play? I want to say 2017. Adding older northern WWC voters to the Conservative tally was a gain, but only as long as it didn't repel younger southern metropolitan voters. That second shoe took a while to drop.)
Apart from Gilbert & Sullivan, computer gaming and dressage I can't think of anything I'm less interested in than GE Voting Intention polls when the last GE was 2 months ago and the next one is in 5 years.
But thank you, John.
The next election might be in 3 or 4 years' time.
You never know - but 4 at the earliest, I'd have thought.
The critical role of the Lib Dems in the next Parliament is to dig in to all those new seats that they've gained and not yield them, i.e be really sticky in the way they were always good at pre-Coalition. The Tories chasing the Reform vote under the leadership of some hard right, migrants-and-trannies obsessed lunatic, ought to help enormously.
The Conservative Party is a Trump-lite cesspool of toxic waste, governing on behalf of a core nucleus of elderly golf club bores with fascistic leanings. It's essential that it be denied a majority until the unlikely event of it cleaning up its act, or until it dies out. The cities loathe it, so it can only claw its way to victory through firm control of the whole of its powerbase in Southern England outside London. If the Lib Dems control a big chunk of that territory, the Conservatives can never win again. So we must all hope that Sir Ed plays his cards well.
Hubristic post much?
Similar posts were being made in 2019.
Reality is more complex.
Had the Tories got sub 80 seats, I think Reform would have taken over and see mass defections.
Because they didn't, and amid a backdrop of a hugely unpopular new PM with incredible flat-footed political responses who seems intent on soaking the 'rich' (i.e., anyone in the middle class), I suspect we could easily be looking at a hung parliament by the next election.
Apart from Gilbert & Sullivan, computer gaming and dressage I can't think of anything I'm less interested in than GE Voting Intention polls when the last GE was 2 months ago and the next one is in 5 years.
But thank you, John.
The centrist Dad 'boring is hip' line is going to be wearing a bit thin when Starmer is polling in the 20s...
I fear I'm a pretty average 'centrist Dad', and I've been saying that the fact Starmer is boring is a big problem for him for years.
You might want to change it to: "Labourite cope" line ....
Apart from Gilbert & Sullivan, computer gaming and dressage I can't think of anything I'm less interested in than GE Voting Intention polls when the last GE was 2 months ago and the next one is in 5 years.
But thank you, John.
The next election might be in 3 or 4 years' time.
You never know - but 4 at the earliest, I'd have thought.
Unless something bonkers happens:
May 2028 if Labour are confident of winning. May 2029 if they expect to lose.
And remember kiddos, Callaghan was ahead of Maggie by this point after the 1979 general election.
And best part of 5 years Buyers' Remorse for LibDem and Reform voters.
The people of Britain needed a stark reminder of what Labour Governments mean.
They got it.
Especially if they elect someone willing to hold the Govt to account on immigration, who wasn't tarnished by working closely with Sunak in the fag end of the last parliament.
An on topic cycling story - one of two bizarre cycling stories in the press this weekend.
A Lib Dem Councillor (on topic!) called Paul Bennett on Malvern Hills DC was all over local media about how he had challenged Mountain Bikers on a hill fort called British Camp who were cycling in the area, how they swore at him, and abused him, and how he felt threatened. Media attention, police engaged - more patrols promised, lots of ranting on social media. https://www.malverngazette.co.uk/news/24544204.malvern-hills-british-camp-visitors-threatened-cyclists/
It now appears he may be a pork pie merchant. Unfortunately for some, there is some video and at least one independent witness.
It seems that he marched up to three people who were sitting looking at the view for the previous 45 minutes, having pushed their bikes from the path, and noisily abused *them*.
In general, wheeling your bicycle through pedestrian only areas (or at junctions during a red light) seems to wind some people up no end.
People get angry about the stupidest things.
I've probably said this story before, but three decades ago I was at uni in London, and had to get the tube in each morning. I was on crutches, and me and a friend got into a packed tube train at South Woodford. A few stops later, a woman said angrily to me: "Do you have to use those things on the tube?"
Because, of course, I was only using the crutches to annoy her and steal a few precious square centimetres of space in the carriage.
There are angry arseholes in every group.
The Giant Dickheads In Giant SUVs now have e-bikes and are Giant Dickheads on E-Bikes etc.
And best part of 5 years Buyers' Remorse for LibDem and Reform voters.
The people of Britain needed a stark reminder of what Labour Governments mean.
They got it.
Especially if they elect someone willing to hold the Govt to account on immigration, who wasn't tarnished by working closely with Sunak in the fag end of the last parliament.
Robert Jenrick, come on down.....
Plan is to lock him in the basement for the duration?
Might be prudent, I suppose.
(Can't be bothered to go through the details, but immigration was such a fiasco for so long that he's bound to have skeletons in his closet there.)
And best part of 5 years Buyers' Remorse for LibDem and Reform voters.
The people of Britain needed a stark reminder of what Labour Governments mean.
They got it.
I suspect crossover early Nov after the Budget!
We did try to warn people didn't we! 😈
Polling doesn't matter though for 4 years.
In 2028 it starts to become interesting. It looks like Starmer expects that the hard grind is done by thenand results are showing in terms of public finances and services.
He might be right, he may be wrong, but that's the plan.
And best part of 5 years Buyers' Remorse for LibDem and Reform voters.
The people of Britain needed a stark reminder of what Labour Governments mean.
They got it.
Especially if they elect someone willing to hold the Govt to account on immigration, who wasn't tarnished by working closely with Sunak in the fag end of the last parliament.
Robert Jenrick, come on down.....
Would any Tory MP have credibility with Reform voters on immigration? They had years in government and failed to deal with the issue. They passed the Rwanda plan laws, and still failed to deport anyone, and possibly called an election to avoid doing so.
I'm still boggled that the election was called for July. Sunak could still be PM and sending planeloads of people to Rwanda if he hadn't called the election.
Apart from Gilbert & Sullivan, computer gaming and dressage I can't think of anything I'm less interested in than GE Voting Intention polls when the last GE was 2 months ago and the next one is in 5 years.
But thank you, John.
Translation: that's not a good poll for Labour, and I don't want to hear it.
For the LDs to eclipse the Tories they would have to become a genuine Orange Book centre right party and ditch the social democrats. Essentially the SDP wing of the LDs which merged with the Liberals in the 1980s would have to return to Labour. Only that would see the remaining One Nation centre right wing of the Tories permanently shift to the Liberals. The Tories would also need to lose their hard right ERG wing to Reform who would become the main party of populist Brexiteers and overtake the Tories too...
I think you're assuming an ideological coherence to the Lib Dem vote that isn't there. That's both their superpower and Achilles Heel.
The Lib Dem path to overtaking the Conservatives goes like this:
1. Identify thirty or so target seats. They will be overwhelmingly Conservative-held with a chunky Labour vote to squeeze, most will look like current Lib Dem seats- leafy. 2. Throw the kitchen sink at them for four to five years. 3. Err... 4. That's it really.
Nothing about social democracy vs. orange bookery. Everything about the failings of the government, the uselessnesses of your Tory MP and lots and lots of photos of potholes.
Half the LDs are social democrats, winning a few more Tory seats in by election style campaigns ain't making them anywhere near the main centre right party in the UK unless the Orange Bookers force the social democrats out and take full control
I know lots of LDs very well. I don't know who are "social democrats" and who are "Orange bookers" and I suspect neither do they. What unites us is making a real practical improvement to people's lives without ideological labels or hangups.
Well the LDs were formed by a merger of social democratic SDP supporters and classical liberal Liberals so I am afraid that division is there.
Yes LDs can get away with 'practical improvement to peoples' lives' at council level only when they promise to be better at repairing potholes than the Tories or Labour and blocking new homes on fields.
However that doesn't work at national level, to break into the main 2 parties either the Orange Book, classical liberal wing would have to win to have any chance of replacing the Tories as the main party of the centre right or the social democratic wing to have a chance of replacing Labour as the main party of the centre right if say Corbynites retook control of Labour.
@hyufd umpteen LDs have replied to you and 100% have said the same thing. We have no Social Democrat/Liberal split in the party and the voters generally (as opposed to political geeks like ourselves) have not a clue that the LDs are made up of Liberals and Social Democrats. I have not a clue what most of my LD colleagues are. I don't even know what my MP is. All I know is I am a Liberal and from discussions I am aware of maybe whether 1 or 2 are Liberals or Social Democrats. But for 99% I have not a clue and don't care.
The merger was decades ago. It is now entirely irrelevant. Nobody cares. Literally nobody at all.
Now we are all LDs and you are a Tory so you are not inside the party to see what we think. Don't you think it would make sense to take on board what we actually know from our combined experience.
That is not to say sometime in the future a split might not happen and if PR was implemented I would expect it to happen, but as is there really is no such groupings in the LDs at all.
The interesting split is that there are Conservatives like @TSE and was-but-can't-face-it-now Conservatives like me saying "hey guys, there's a real risk here". When Lib Dems throw the kitchen sink at a seat, they tend to win, because they are damn good at what they do. And national politics and polls mean diddly squat.
And (former) safe seats Conservatives don't seem to have a clue what is about to hit them. Take East Hampshire. Majority down from 20000 to 1300. And 5000 Labour votes to squeeze.
Gentlemen, it is time to leave the billiards room.
An even bigger 6,476 Reform votes for the Tories to squeeze in East Hampshire too.
While if Tugendhat became Tory leader some of those 2024 LD voters would likely go Tory again next time
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
And with remote working now available to basically anyone suddenly people are much more mobile. Were I to go both my wife and I would keep our current jobs and we'd just shift to overseas payroll. I'd need to come to the London office for 2 working days per month and my wife's terms are 10 working days per quarter.
Yes. And of course all the “oh they’ll never go” lefty wankers ignore this. A revolution. I can do all my work abroad without a hitch. Even things like moving are so much easier. Books and music are all digital and kept on tiny devices
Plus British weather is shit and worsening and British towns are ugly and getting uglier and mass immigration is, shall we say, not necessarily always adding to the attractions of UK life
I noticed the other day that England and Wales have the highest rape rates in Europe. Higher than Sweden. Absolutely true. Go look for yourself
As someone who has benefitted from opportunities to live and work in numerous different countries, the idea of choosing to live your life purely to minimise how much tax you pay is just baffling.
Depends on how much tax you are talking about. For all that I wouldn't move for entirely personal reasons, I entirely understand why, for example, The Rolling Stones moved to France in the early 70s. When you are paying 90% tax on much of your earnings there must be a high incentive to look elsewhere to live. In 1974 it got even worse when it went up to 98%.
For the LDs to eclipse the Tories they would have to become a genuine Orange Book centre right party and ditch the social democrats. Essentially the SDP wing of the LDs which merged with the Liberals in the 1980s would have to return to Labour. Only that would see the remaining One Nation centre right wing of the Tories permanently shift to the Liberals. The Tories would also need to lose their hard right ERG wing to Reform who would become the main party of populist Brexiteers and overtake the Tories too...
I think you're assuming an ideological coherence to the Lib Dem vote that isn't there. That's both their superpower and Achilles Heel.
The Lib Dem path to overtaking the Conservatives goes like this:
1. Identify thirty or so target seats. They will be overwhelmingly Conservative-held with a chunky Labour vote to squeeze, most will look like current Lib Dem seats- leafy. 2. Throw the kitchen sink at them for four to five years. 3. Err... 4. That's it really.
Nothing about social democracy vs. orange bookery. Everything about the failings of the government, the uselessnesses of your Tory MP and lots and lots of photos of potholes.
Half the LDs are social democrats, winning a few more Tory seats in by election style campaigns ain't making them anywhere near the main centre right party in the UK unless the Orange Bookers force the social democrats out and take full control
I know lots of LDs very well. I don't know who are "social democrats" and who are "Orange bookers" and I suspect neither do they. What unites us is making a real practical improvement to people's lives without ideological labels or hangups.
Well the LDs were formed by a merger of social democratic SDP supporters and classical liberal Liberals so I am afraid that division is there.
Yes LDs can get away with 'practical improvement to peoples' lives' at council level only when they promise to be better at repairing potholes than the Tories or Labour and blocking new homes on fields.
However that doesn't work at national level, to break into the main 2 parties either the Orange Book, classical liberal wing would have to win to have any chance of replacing the Tories as the main party of the centre right or the social democratic wing to have a chance of replacing Labour as the main party of the centre right if say Corbynites retook control of Labour.
@hyufd umpteen LDs have replied to you and 100% have said the same thing. We have no Social Democrat/Liberal split in the party and the voters generally (as opposed to political geeks like ourselves) have not a clue that the LDs are made up of Liberals and Social Democrats. I have not a clue what most of my LD colleagues are. I don't even know what my MP is. All I know is I am a Liberal and from discussions I am aware of maybe whether 1 or 2 are Liberals or Social Democrats. But for 99% I have not a clue and don't care.
The merger was decades ago. It is now entirely irrelevant. Nobody cares. Literally nobody at all.
Now we are all LDs and you are a Tory so you are not inside the party to see what we think. Don't you think it would make sense to take on board what we actually know from our combined experience.
That is not to say sometime in the future a split might not happen and if PR was implemented I would expect it to happen, but as is there really is no such groupings in the LDs at all.
The interesting split is that there are Conservatives like @TSE and was-but-can't-face-it-now Conservatives like me saying "hey guys, there's a real risk here". When Lib Dems throw the kitchen sink at a seat, they tend to win, because they are damn good at what they do. And national politics and polls mean diddly squat.
And (former) safe seats Conservatives don't seem to have a clue what is about to hit them. Take East Hampshire. Majority down from 20000 to 1300. And 5000 Labour votes to squeeze.
Gentlemen, it is time to leave the billiards room.
An even bigger 6,476 Reform votes for the Tories to squeeze in East Hampshire too.
While if Tugendhat became Tory leader some of those 2024 LD voters would likely go Tory again next time
I live in East Hampshire.
The Liberal Democrats aren't taking it.
I thought the LDs would win it, and the Tories would hold NE Hants. Got it the wrong way round.
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
And with remote working now available to basically anyone suddenly people are much more mobile. Were I to go both my wife and I would keep our current jobs and we'd just shift to overseas payroll. I'd need to come to the London office for 2 working days per month and my wife's terms are 10 working days per quarter.
Yes. And of course all the “oh they’ll never go” lefty wankers ignore this. A revolution. I can do all my work abroad without a hitch. Even things like moving are so much easier. Books and music are all digital and kept on tiny devices
Plus British weather is shit and worsening and British towns are ugly and getting uglier and mass immigration is, shall we say, not necessarily always adding to the attractions of UK life
I noticed the other day that England and Wales have the highest rape rates in Europe. Higher than Sweden. Absolutely true. Go look for yourself
As someone who has benefitted from opportunities to live and work in numerous different countries, the idea of choosing to live your life purely to minimise how much tax you pay is just baffling.
Depends on how much tax you are talking about. For all that I wouldn't move for entirely personal reasons, I entirely understand why, for example, The Rolling Stones moved to France in the early 70s. When you are paying 90% tax on much of your earnings there must be a high incentive to look elsewhere to live. In 1974 it got even worse when it went up to 98%.
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
And with remote working now available to basically anyone suddenly people are much more mobile. Were I to go both my wife and I would keep our current jobs and we'd just shift to overseas payroll. I'd need to come to the London office for 2 working days per month and my wife's terms are 10 working days per quarter.
Yes. And of course all the “oh they’ll never go” lefty wankers ignore this. A revolution. I can do all my work abroad without a hitch. Even things like moving are so much easier. Books and music are all digital and kept on tiny devices
Plus British weather is shit and worsening and British towns are ugly and getting uglier and mass immigration is, shall we say, not necessarily always adding to the attractions of UK life
I noticed the other day that England and Wales have the highest rape rates in Europe. Higher than Sweden. Absolutely true. Go look for yourself
As someone who has benefitted from opportunities to live and work in numerous different countries, the idea of choosing to live your life purely to minimise how much tax you pay is just baffling.
Depends on how much tax you are talking about. For all that I wouldn't move for entirely personal reasons, I entirely understand why, for example, The Rolling Stones moved to France in the early 70s. When you are paying 90% tax on much of your earnings there must be a high incentive to look elsewhere to live. In 1974 it got even worse when it went up to 98%.
The 98% was 83% 'regular' income tax plus 15% on top for investment income eg interest on savings
I only mention this as I expect Rachel to bring in a 5% investment income surcharge. Rachel and Keir don't like people to have savings.
For the LDs to eclipse the Tories they would have to become a genuine Orange Book centre right party and ditch the social democrats. Essentially the SDP wing of the LDs which merged with the Liberals in the 1980s would have to return to Labour. Only that would see the remaining One Nation centre right wing of the Tories permanently shift to the Liberals. The Tories would also need to lose their hard right ERG wing to Reform who would become the main party of populist Brexiteers and overtake the Tories too...
I think you're assuming an ideological coherence to the Lib Dem vote that isn't there. That's both their superpower and Achilles Heel.
The Lib Dem path to overtaking the Conservatives goes like this:
1. Identify thirty or so target seats. They will be overwhelmingly Conservative-held with a chunky Labour vote to squeeze, most will look like current Lib Dem seats- leafy. 2. Throw the kitchen sink at them for four to five years. 3. Err... 4. That's it really.
Nothing about social democracy vs. orange bookery. Everything about the failings of the government, the uselessnesses of your Tory MP and lots and lots of photos of potholes.
Half the LDs are social democrats, winning a few more Tory seats in by election style campaigns ain't making them anywhere near the main centre right party in the UK unless the Orange Bookers force the social democrats out and take full control
I know lots of LDs very well. I don't know who are "social democrats" and who are "Orange bookers" and I suspect neither do they. What unites us is making a real practical improvement to people's lives without ideological labels or hangups.
Well the LDs were formed by a merger of social democratic SDP supporters and classical liberal Liberals so I am afraid that division is there.
Yes LDs can get away with 'practical improvement to peoples' lives' at council level only when they promise to be better at repairing potholes than the Tories or Labour and blocking new homes on fields.
However that doesn't work at national level, to break into the main 2 parties either the Orange Book, classical liberal wing would have to win to have any chance of replacing the Tories as the main party of the centre right or the social democratic wing to have a chance of replacing Labour as the main party of the centre right if say Corbynites retook control of Labour.
@hyufd umpteen LDs have replied to you and 100% have said the same thing. We have no Social Democrat/Liberal split in the party and the voters generally (as opposed to political geeks like ourselves) have not a clue that the LDs are made up of Liberals and Social Democrats. I have not a clue what most of my LD colleagues are. I don't even know what my MP is. All I know is I am a Liberal and from discussions I am aware of maybe whether 1 or 2 are Liberals or Social Democrats. But for 99% I have not a clue and don't care.
The merger was decades ago. It is now entirely irrelevant. Nobody cares. Literally nobody at all.
Now we are all LDs and you are a Tory so you are not inside the party to see what we think. Don't you think it would make sense to take on board what we actually know from our combined experience.
That is not to say sometime in the future a split might not happen and if PR was implemented I would expect it to happen, but as is there really is no such groupings in the LDs at all.
The interesting split is that there are Conservatives like @TSE and was-but-can't-face-it-now Conservatives like me saying "hey guys, there's a real risk here". When Lib Dems throw the kitchen sink at a seat, they tend to win, because they are damn good at what they do. And national politics and polls mean diddly squat.
And (former) safe seats Conservatives don't seem to have a clue what is about to hit them. Take East Hampshire. Majority down from 20000 to 1300. And 5000 Labour votes to squeeze.
Gentlemen, it is time to leave the billiards room.
An even bigger 6,476 Reform votes for the Tories to squeeze in East Hampshire too.
While if Tugendhat became Tory leader some of those 2024 LD voters would likely go Tory again next time
In most unexpected news ever: the paralympics triathlon, which was supposed to occur this morning, has been delayed until tomorrow. Because the water quality in the Seine is shite. Quite literally.
They spent a billion Euros to clean up the river, yet the news system cannot even cope with the excess rainfall in summer.
This can't be right - we've been told that it is only Brexit Britain that has excess rainfall leading to sewage overflow.
In most unexpected news ever: the paralympics triathlon, which was supposed to occur this morning, has been delayed until tomorrow. Because the water quality in the Seine is shite. Quite literally.
They spent a billion Euros to clean up the river, yet the news system cannot even cope with the excess rainfall in summer.
This can't be right - we've been told that it is only Brexit Britain that has excess rainfall leading to sewage overflow.
Overflow? Get your hyperbole right! They're "pumping it into the rivers".
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
I would never consider leaving England under any circumstances short of civil war. But from a purely monetary point of view it would certainly be tempting. Currently I pay 49% of my turnover in tax which I think is a ridiculous state of affairs.
More likely, as Labour destroy our energy independence and we move to more and more imports, I will probably move back to working overseas permanently on rotation. Not something I want to do but needs must. It improves both my job prospects and my tax situation. I will still be providing the UK with oil and gas - I will just be doing it from the Middle East or South America.
Many multinationals are offering working from any country they have an office in.
It’s the flip side of WFH.
I seem to recall a lot of Tories saying WFH was terrible and people needed to go back to the office.
There’s a difference between them, who can be trusted to WFH, and the oiks they employ, who can’t.
Ah, yes, like there’s a difference between them, who can be trusted with freedom of movement, and the oiks they employ, who can’t!
And whom they conned into voting for Brexit.
Conned into having full employment and pay rises.
But how terrible that they've lost their 'right' to pick turnips in Transylvania.
Yet strangely those pay rises and full employment are forcing Brexiteer citizens of nowhere to flee these shores as the public sector has to match pay and conditions to keep staff.
It's almost as if they don't give a damn about levelling up.
Why are you so angry recently?
I am not angry.
A bit tetchy about Brexiteers who whinge about paying for what they voted for, higher pay for their fellow citizens and levelling up of neglected areas, levelling up requiring relative progress compared with their own favoured areas. It isn't ex miners in Mansfield talking of going into tax exile.
I didn't vote for higher pay for train drivers and other union dominated industries.
The public sector don't realise they're born compared to the private sector. Safe jobs and decent pensions, particularly for those who aren't strong performers. It is they, not those of us who pay the bill, who ought to stop whingeing.
But more important than that, I didn't vote for puritanical socialists to tell people what they should and shouldn't do in their private lives.
I suspect Labour polling at 30% is going to looked upon wistfully by those on the left come September 1 2025....
Well of course you didn't vote for it! But I did and there were more of me than there were of you. This time that's how it was. Normally it's the other way round, so next time who knows. It could be normal service resumed. Until then - so at least for the next 4 years - we have this Labour government with a big majority so let's see how they get on.
It's your absolute right but I find the whinging a bit tedious. Your kind of politics doesn't have a right to be in the saddle, you know, and for the next few years it isn't and won't be. If it's any comfort there are also plenty of people on the left (Corbynites and others) who are pissed off with the election result.
Well, tough titty to you and to them too. Your party got hammered. The radical Left had their chance when they controlled Labour and they blew it.
Apart from Gilbert & Sullivan, computer gaming and dressage I can't think of anything I'm less interested in than GE Voting Intention polls when the last GE was 2 months ago and the next one is in 5 years.
But thank you, John.
Translation: that's not a good poll for Labour, and I don't want to hear it.
Would give Labour 348 seats and Conservatives 180 seats and a Labour majority of 46 according to Electoral Calculus.
I suspect Labour would be happy with that.
Obviously both the poll and Electoral Calculus are completely meaningless at this point. My first checkpoint will be next year's English Council Elections. The Conservatives have had a string of bad results here. Will they start to turn this round?
I suspect most people's response will be "where was this plan in the past 14 years and why couldn't you persuade your own party to follow it if it was going to fix this great country?"
The more I see of Jenrick the more he seems determined to follow the style of Poilievre in Canada.
I suspect most people's response will be "where was this plan in the past 14 years and why couldn't you persuade your own party to follow it if it was going to fix this great country?"
The more I see of Jenrick the more he seems determined to follow the style of Poilievre in Canada.
I suspect most people's response will be "where was this plan in the past 14 years and why couldn't you persuade your own party to follow it if it was going to fix this great country?"
The more I see of Jenrick the more he seems determined to follow the style of Poilievre in Canada.
I'm super excited about being able to buy a place in Central London for less, assuming @boulay and @MaxPB are correct. All those people fleeing to low tax environments will hopefully sell their Regent's Park homes.
During last night's convo, wasn't that a point that was made? Abroad is excellent for providing more, nicer, house for less money.
Which leaves me with some questions that I really don't have answers to, but I have strong suspicions.
How much of our collective sense of "not enough money" is down to the cost of accommodation, rather than taxes?
How much of the money released by tax cuts since the 1980s has just dropped through to the bucket labelled "house price inflation"? (I'm imagining something like that model of the economy made of clear plastic pipes and coloured water. Science Museum or a fever dream?)
I recall someone explaining to me that Hong Kong rents + income tax were roughly equivalent to the costs in the West
Loving the excitement of PB Tories being a mere 4 points behind Labour some (checks notes) five years before the next general election (assuming things pan out as they suggest). I was breathlessly examining the polls from mid-2019 in the run up to this year’s election I can tell you. They were uncannily accurate.
Onto more pressing matters. Why is this the flattest Man Utd v Liverpool game since…forever!
"Brain drain" has been a popular meme since .. well, about as long as I can remember.
If people like Max and Casino decamp, it will have an effect - but not , I think, as great as they imagine.
(For the avoidance of doubt, I'd be sorry to see them go.)
The issue is that it’s now relatively easy for salaried professionals to work from where they wish. The likes of @Casino_Royale and @MaxPB are not in the top 1%, they’re in the top 5% which is where the real money gets raised. The £100k barrier means that tens of thousands of very productive people are either working four days or stuffing pensions for tax avoidance reasons.
It's not just people on very high incomes; I've noted that the propensity to work full time decreases rapidly from about £50,000 up if they have a partner. Consider salaried GPs. People value their children and their long weekends.
But yes, the £100k thing is an obvious thing to fix and oddly enough, a Labour government probably has more cover to do it than a Tory one if it's accompanied by other progressive policies.
The ASI had an interesting take on that effect wrt private schooling, the suggestion being that if parents decide to take their kids out of private school because the additional cost is too high, loads of them might then choose to go part time because they don't need the extra £20-30k per year to pay for fees. CR has literally suggested he's looking at that option right now so it's not as far fetched as some would like to believe. They think the loss of tax income from these people reducing their work hours could be pretty massive, coupled with the additional costs of schooling the kids exiting the private sector we might see a pretty big net increase in spend.
If these people go part-time, the work they were doing will presumably still need doing, so other people will get promotions, start earning more, and there will be little lost tax income.
Yes there are loads of people with those skills just wandering the streets waiting to slot in. What planet are you on, he gets the big money for a reason.
Does no-one else work where he is? Aren't they training up younger staff? What would they do if we got ill, or retired? Don't they have competitors who employ staff? I don't believe he is so completely and utterly irreplaceable.
Loving the excitement of PB Tories being a mere 4 points behind Labour some (checks notes) five years before the next general election (assuming things pan out as they suggest). I was breathlessly examining the polls from mid-2019 in the run up to this year’s election I can tell you. They were uncannily accurate.
Onto more pressing matters. Why is this the flattest Man Utd v Liverpool game since…forever!
I find the furious Sky wanking over this fixture deeply unedifying. Most people hate both clubs and don’t care who wins.
Apart from Gilbert & Sullivan, computer gaming and dressage I can't think of anything I'm less interested in than GE Voting Intention polls when the last GE was 2 months ago and the next one is in 5 years.
But thank you, John.
The centrist Dad 'boring is hip' line is going to be wearing a bit thin when Starmer is polling in the 20s...
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
I would never consider leaving England under any circumstances short of civil war. But from a purely monetary point of view it would certainly be tempting. Currently I pay 49% of my turnover in tax which I think is a ridiculous state of affairs.
More likely, as Labour destroy our energy independence and we move to more and more imports, I will probably move back to working overseas permanently on rotation. Not something I want to do but needs must. It improves both my job prospects and my tax situation. I will still be providing the UK with oil and gas - I will just be doing it from the Middle East or South America.
Many multinationals are offering working from any country they have an office in.
It’s the flip side of WFH.
I seem to recall a lot of Tories saying WFH was terrible and people needed to go back to the office.
There’s a difference between them, who can be trusted to WFH, and the oiks they employ, who can’t.
Ah, yes, like there’s a difference between them, who can be trusted with freedom of movement, and the oiks they employ, who can’t!
And whom they conned into voting for Brexit.
Conned into having full employment and pay rises.
But how terrible that they've lost their 'right' to pick turnips in Transylvania.
Yet strangely those pay rises and full employment are forcing Brexiteer citizens of nowhere to flee these shores as the public sector has to match pay and conditions to keep staff.
It's almost as if they don't give a damn about levelling up.
Why are you so angry recently?
I am not angry.
A bit tetchy about Brexiteers who whinge about paying for what they voted for, higher pay for their fellow citizens and levelling up of neglected areas, levelling up requiring relative progress compared with their own favoured areas. It isn't ex miners in Mansfield talking of going into tax exile.
I didn't vote for higher pay for train drivers and other union dominated industries.
The public sector don't realise they're born compared to the private sector. Safe jobs and decent pensions, particularly for those who aren't strong performers. It is they, not those of us who pay the bill, who ought to stop whingeing.
But more important than that, I didn't vote for puritanical socialists to tell people what they should and shouldn't do in their private lives.
I suspect Labour polling at 30% is going to looked upon wistfully by those on the left come September 1 2025....
Get a public sector job then. There are plenty of unfilled places in multiple roles.
How do we know Isreali missles didn't kill them? The Isreali's haven't exactly been very discerning.
Hamas could - and should - have released all the hostages last year. Their deaths are on Hamas. You should ponder why Hamas haven't released the hostages.
And I suppose you think Hamas have been 'discerning' ?
Loving the excitement of PB Tories being a mere 4 points behind Labour some (checks notes) five years before the next general election (assuming things pan out as they suggest). I was breathlessly examining the polls from mid-2019 in the run up to this year’s election I can tell you. They were uncannily accurate.
Onto more pressing matters. Why is this the flattest Man Utd v Liverpool game since…forever!
I find the furious Sky wanking over this fixture deeply unedifying. Most people hate both clubs and don’t care who wins.
They were also wanking over the Man Utd Keeper in the build-up. One might call it Onnanaism.
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
I would never consider leaving England under any circumstances short of civil war. But from a purely monetary point of view it would certainly be tempting. Currently I pay 49% of my turnover in tax which I think is a ridiculous state of affairs.
More likely, as Labour destroy our energy independence and we move to more and more imports, I will probably move back to working overseas permanently on rotation. Not something I want to do but needs must. It improves both my job prospects and my tax situation. I will still be providing the UK with oil and gas - I will just be doing it from the Middle East or South America.
Many multinationals are offering working from any country they have an office in.
It’s the flip side of WFH.
I seem to recall a lot of Tories saying WFH was terrible and people needed to go back to the office.
There’s a difference between them, who can be trusted to WFH, and the oiks they employ, who can’t.
Ah, yes, like there’s a difference between them, who can be trusted with freedom of movement, and the oiks they employ, who can’t!
And whom they conned into voting for Brexit.
Conned into having full employment and pay rises.
But how terrible that they've lost their 'right' to pick turnips in Transylvania.
Yet strangely those pay rises and full employment are forcing Brexiteer citizens of nowhere to flee these shores as the public sector has to match pay and conditions to keep staff.
It's almost as if they don't give a damn about levelling up.
Why are you so angry recently?
I am not Foxy but I assume it's because we swapped a set of incompetent conservatives who didn't understand the problems faced by the UK but instead indulged in the obsessions of the right-wing metropolitan elite, for a set of competent conservatives who dont understand the problems faced by the UK but instead indulge in the obsessions of the left-wing metropolitan elite.
Apart from Gilbert & Sullivan, computer gaming and dressage I can't think of anything I'm less interested in than GE Voting Intention polls when the last GE was 2 months ago and the next one is in 5 years.
But thank you, John.
The centrist Dad 'boring is hip' line is going to be wearing a bit thin when Starmer is polling in the 20s...
Huey Lewis and the News!
For the next 4-5 years, their platter "Stuck with you" is much more relevant.
"Brain drain" has been a popular meme since .. well, about as long as I can remember.
If people like Max and Casino decamp, it will have an effect - but not , I think, as great as they imagine.
(For the avoidance of doubt, I'd be sorry to see them go.)
The issue is that it’s now relatively easy for salaried professionals to work from where they wish. The likes of @Casino_Royale and @MaxPB are not in the top 1%, they’re in the top 5% which is where the real money gets raised. The £100k barrier means that tens of thousands of very productive people are either working four days or stuffing pensions for tax avoidance reasons.
It's not just people on very high incomes; I've noted that the propensity to work full time decreases rapidly from about £50,000 up if they have a partner. Consider salaried GPs. People value their children and their long weekends.
But yes, the £100k thing is an obvious thing to fix and oddly enough, a Labour government probably has more cover to do it than a Tory one if it's accompanied by other progressive policies.
The ASI had an interesting take on that effect wrt private schooling, the suggestion being that if parents decide to take their kids out of private school because the additional cost is too high, loads of them might then choose to go part time because they don't need the extra £20-30k per year to pay for fees. CR has literally suggested he's looking at that option right now so it's not as far fetched as some would like to believe. They think the loss of tax income from these people reducing their work hours could be pretty massive, coupled with the additional costs of schooling the kids exiting the private sector we might see a pretty big net increase in spend.
If these people go part-time, the work they were doing will presumably still need doing, so other people will get promotions, start earning more, and there will be little lost tax income.
Yes there are loads of people with those skills just wandering the streets waiting to slot in. What planet are you on, he gets the big money for a reason.
Does no-one else work where he is? Aren't they training up younger staff? What would they do if we got ill, or retired? Don't they have competitors who employ staff? I don't believe he is so completely and utterly irreplaceable.
His company may prefer to employ him abroad. Companies often move offices abroad, often because of favourable tax treatment, or other reasons such as post Brexit market access.
Graveyards are full of irreplaceable men. The reality is, particularly in tech and finance there are almost always ambitious young wolves with a lean and hungry look to take advantage of any gap that appears. Often migrants from overseas of course, but should pass the income test.
Apart from Gilbert & Sullivan, computer gaming and dressage I can't think of anything I'm less interested in than GE Voting Intention polls when the last GE was 2 months ago and the next one is in 5 years.
But thank you, John.
Translation: that's not a good poll for Labour, and I don't want to hear it.
No, I'm perfectly serious about my supreme lack of interest in UK polls right now.
US polls - different story. Living and breathing those.
Loving the excitement of PB Tories being a mere 4 points behind Labour some (checks notes) five years before the next general election (assuming things pan out as they suggest). I was breathlessly examining the polls from mid-2019 in the run up to this year’s election I can tell you. They were uncannily accurate.
Onto more pressing matters. Why is this the flattest Man Utd v Liverpool game since…forever!
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
And with remote working now available to basically anyone suddenly people are much more mobile. Were I to go both my wife and I would keep our current jobs and we'd just shift to overseas payroll. I'd need to come to the London office for 2 working days per month and my wife's terms are 10 working days per quarter.
Yes. And of course all the “oh they’ll never go” lefty wankers ignore this. A revolution. I can do all my work abroad without a hitch. Even things like moving are so much easier. Books and music are all digital and kept on tiny devices
Plus British weather is shit and worsening and British towns are ugly and getting uglier and mass immigration is, shall we say, not necessarily always adding to the attractions of UK life
I noticed the other day that England and Wales have the highest rape rates in Europe. Higher than Sweden. Absolutely true. Go look for yourself
As someone who has benefitted from opportunities to live and work in numerous different countries, the idea of choosing to live your life purely to minimise how much tax you pay is just baffling.
Depends on how much tax you are talking about. For all that I wouldn't move for entirely personal reasons, I entirely understand why, for example, The Rolling Stones moved to France in the early 70s. When you are paying 90% tax on much of your earnings there must be a high incentive to look elsewhere to live. In 1974 it got even worse when it went up to 98%.
IIRC, no one ever paid 98%
Possibly some time in the late 1940's. Seem to remember something about it. Mind, the taxpayer had to be earning A LOT, and it was of course only on the last 5 or so %.
Thuringia looks fascinating with Alternativ set to top the state poll with about 30% leaving the CDU on 22% and Linke losing more than half their support to around 15%. The Bundnis Wagenknecht (BSW) set to finish third with 17-20%/
The FDP and Greens will miss out and the SPD might as well.
I imagine the story over here will be all about Alternativ but for me the real story in both states will be the rise of BSW.
Government formation in both states post election will be interesting though I think Kretschmer will carry on in Saxony. For AfD and BSW this is the point where protest politics meets the real world.
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
I would never consider leaving England under any circumstances short of civil war. But from a purely monetary point of view it would certainly be tempting. Currently I pay 49% of my turnover in tax which I think is a ridiculous state of affairs.
More likely, as Labour destroy our energy independence and we move to more and more imports, I will probably move back to working overseas permanently on rotation. Not something I want to do but needs must. It improves both my job prospects and my tax situation. I will still be providing the UK with oil and gas - I will just be doing it from the Middle East or South America.
Many multinationals are offering working from any country they have an office in.
It’s the flip side of WFH.
I seem to recall a lot of Tories saying WFH was terrible and people needed to go back to the office.
There’s a difference between them, who can be trusted to WFH, and the oiks they employ, who can’t.
Ah, yes, like there’s a difference between them, who can be trusted with freedom of movement, and the oiks they employ, who can’t!
And whom they conned into voting for Brexit.
Conned into having full employment and pay rises.
But how terrible that they've lost their 'right' to pick turnips in Transylvania.
Yet strangely those pay rises and full employment are forcing Brexiteer citizens of nowhere to flee these shores as the public sector has to match pay and conditions to keep staff.
It's almost as if they don't give a damn about levelling up.
Why are you so angry recently?
denial anger bargaining depression acceptance
If you think the grief cycle is the only cause of anger then you are pretty foolish.
What do you think I am grieving?
You think bunging cash at public sector workers is levelling up. 😂
Loving the excitement of PB Tories being a mere 4 points behind Labour some (checks notes) five years before the next general election (assuming things pan out as they suggest). I was breathlessly examining the polls from mid-2019 in the run up to this year’s election I can tell you. They were uncannily accurate.
Onto more pressing matters. Why is this the flattest Man Utd v Liverpool game since…forever!
I find the furious Sky wanking over this fixture deeply unedifying. Most people hate both clubs and don’t care who wins.
"Brain drain" has been a popular meme since .. well, about as long as I can remember.
If people like Max and Casino decamp, it will have an effect - but not , I think, as great as they imagine.
(For the avoidance of doubt, I'd be sorry to see them go.)
The issue is that it’s now relatively easy for salaried professionals to work from where they wish. The likes of @Casino_Royale and @MaxPB are not in the top 1%, they’re in the top 5% which is where the real money gets raised. The £100k barrier means that tens of thousands of very productive people are either working four days or stuffing pensions for tax avoidance reasons.
It's not just people on very high incomes; I've noted that the propensity to work full time decreases rapidly from about £50,000 up if they have a partner. Consider salaried GPs. People value their children and their long weekends.
But yes, the £100k thing is an obvious thing to fix and oddly enough, a Labour government probably has more cover to do it than a Tory one if it's accompanied by other progressive policies.
The ASI had an interesting take on that effect wrt private schooling, the suggestion being that if parents decide to take their kids out of private school because the additional cost is too high, loads of them might then choose to go part time because they don't need the extra £20-30k per year to pay for fees. CR has literally suggested he's looking at that option right now so it's not as far fetched as some would like to believe. They think the loss of tax income from these people reducing their work hours could be pretty massive, coupled with the additional costs of schooling the kids exiting the private sector we might see a pretty big net increase in spend.
If these people go part-time, the work they were doing will presumably still need doing, so other people will get promotions, start earning more, and there will be little lost tax income.
Yes there are loads of people with those skills just wandering the streets waiting to slot in. What planet are you on, he gets the big money for a reason.
Does no-one else work where he is? Aren't they training up younger staff? What would they do if we got ill, or retired? Don't they have competitors who employ staff? I don't believe he is so completely and utterly irreplaceable.
His company may prefer to employ him abroad. Companies often move offices abroad, often because of favourable tax treatment, or other reasons such as post Brexit market access.
Graveyards are full of irreplaceable men. The reality is, particularly in tech and finance there are almost always ambitious young wolves with a lean and hungry look to take advantage of any gap that appears. Often migrants from overseas of course, but should pass the income test.
Following on from the citizens of nowhere comment above…
Everyone in my team, apart from me, is a first generation immigrant. If Working From The Algave appeals, they have much less binding them to this country. Why should it?
Apart from Gilbert & Sullivan, computer gaming and dressage I can't think of anything I'm less interested in than GE Voting Intention polls when the last GE was 2 months ago and the next one is in 5 years.
But thank you, John.
The centrist Dad 'boring is hip' line is going to be wearing a bit thin when Starmer is polling in the 20s...
Huey Lewis and the News!
For the next 4-5 years, their platter "Stuck with you" is much more relevant.
Ah don't know that one. But yes, most apt. Or maybe not if all this 'emigration' talk isn't just talk.
I'm picturing the beauty spots and beaches of the world cluttered with British digital nomarks, sorry nomads!, all adding value there instead of here. It's a grim thought.
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
I would never consider leaving England under any circumstances short of civil war. But from a purely monetary point of view it would certainly be tempting. Currently I pay 49% of my turnover in tax which I think is a ridiculous state of affairs.
More likely, as Labour destroy our energy independence and we move to more and more imports, I will probably move back to working overseas permanently on rotation. Not something I want to do but needs must. It improves both my job prospects and my tax situation. I will still be providing the UK with oil and gas - I will just be doing it from the Middle East or South America.
Many multinationals are offering working from any country they have an office in.
It’s the flip side of WFH.
I seem to recall a lot of Tories saying WFH was terrible and people needed to go back to the office.
There’s a difference between them, who can be trusted to WFH, and the oiks they employ, who can’t.
Ah, yes, like there’s a difference between them, who can be trusted with freedom of movement, and the oiks they employ, who can’t!
And whom they conned into voting for Brexit.
Conned into having full employment and pay rises.
But how terrible that they've lost their 'right' to pick turnips in Transylvania.
Yet strangely those pay rises and full employment are forcing Brexiteer citizens of nowhere to flee these shores as the public sector has to match pay and conditions to keep staff.
It's almost as if they don't give a damn about levelling up.
Why are you so angry recently?
denial anger bargaining depression acceptance
If you think the grief cycle is the only cause of anger then you are pretty foolish.
What do you think I am grieving?
You think bunging cash at public sector workers is levelling up. 😂
Agreeing pay settlements in line with national averages isn't sensibly called "bunging cash at public sector workers". Question is why the previous government of drift didn't do this literally years ago and avoid the inevitable degradation of public services, which at the end of the day is their job to provide.
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
And with remote working now available to basically anyone suddenly people are much more mobile. Were I to go both my wife and I would keep our current jobs and we'd just shift to overseas payroll. I'd need to come to the London office for 2 working days per month and my wife's terms are 10 working days per quarter.
Yes. And of course all the “oh they’ll never go” lefty wankers ignore this. A revolution. I can do all my work abroad without a hitch. Even things like moving are so much easier. Books and music are all digital and kept on tiny devices
Plus British weather is shit and worsening and British towns are ugly and getting uglier and mass immigration is, shall we say, not necessarily always adding to the attractions of UK life
I noticed the other day that England and Wales have the highest rape rates in Europe. Higher than Sweden. Absolutely true. Go look for yourself
As someone who has benefitted from opportunities to live and work in numerous different countries, the idea of choosing to live your life purely to minimise how much tax you pay is just baffling.
It’s fairly obvious that’s not top of my reasons for generally exiting Britain. At the moment Britain is just depressing. And I have seen far too much of the world to tolerate its bleak drizzly mediocrity especially as I get older and my remaining years dwindle
The fact I will pay less tax is a nice bonus tho. That is true
First look at the German numbers - Saxony is straightforward with the current CDU-SPD-Green Government surviving and looking at a drop of just four seats from 67 to 63 in the 120-seat Landtag. AfD projected to win 41 and BSW 16 to be on the opposition side.
Thuringia looks a right mess - AfD will have 30 seats, CDU 24 seats, BSW 15, Linke 12 and the SPD 7. Not easy to see how to get to 45 to form a majority Government. Could AfD try to form a minority?
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
I would never consider leaving England under any circumstances short of civil war. But from a purely monetary point of view it would certainly be tempting. Currently I pay 49% of my turnover in tax which I think is a ridiculous state of affairs.
More likely, as Labour destroy our energy independence and we move to more and more imports, I will probably move back to working overseas permanently on rotation. Not something I want to do but needs must. It improves both my job prospects and my tax situation. I will still be providing the UK with oil and gas - I will just be doing it from the Middle East or South America.
Many multinationals are offering working from any country they have an office in.
It’s the flip side of WFH.
I seem to recall a lot of Tories saying WFH was terrible and people needed to go back to the office.
There’s a difference between them, who can be trusted to WFH, and the oiks they employ, who can’t.
Ah, yes, like there’s a difference between them, who can be trusted with freedom of movement, and the oiks they employ, who can’t!
And whom they conned into voting for Brexit.
Conned into having full employment and pay rises.
But how terrible that they've lost their 'right' to pick turnips in Transylvania.
Yet strangely those pay rises and full employment are forcing Brexiteer citizens of nowhere to flee these shores as the public sector has to match pay and conditions to keep staff.
It's almost as if they don't give a damn about levelling up.
Why are you so angry recently?
denial anger bargaining depression acceptance
If you think the grief cycle is the only cause of anger then you are pretty foolish.
What do you think I am grieving?
You think bunging cash at public sector workers is levelling up. 😂
Agreeing pay settlements in line with national averages isn't sensibly called "bunging cash at public sector workers". Question is why the previous government of drift didn't do this literally years ago and avoid the inevitable degradation of public services, which at the end of the day is their job to provide.
It’s not levelling up, it’s certainly not going to help left behind communities that need levelling up.
That was my point.
The previous govt wanted something in return. Reform of working practises. Hardly unreasonable for some of the practises still allowed.
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
And with remote working now available to basically anyone suddenly people are much more mobile. Were I to go both my wife and I would keep our current jobs and we'd just shift to overseas payroll. I'd need to come to the London office for 2 working days per month and my wife's terms are 10 working days per quarter.
Yes. And of course all the “oh they’ll never go” lefty wankers ignore this. A revolution. I can do all my work abroad without a hitch. Even things like moving are so much easier. Books and music are all digital and kept on tiny devices
Plus British weather is shit and worsening and British towns are ugly and getting uglier and mass immigration is, shall we say, not necessarily always adding to the attractions of UK life
I noticed the other day that England and Wales have the highest rape rates in Europe. Higher than Sweden. Absolutely true. Go look for yourself
As someone who has benefitted from opportunities to live and work in numerous different countries, the idea of choosing to live your life purely to minimise how much tax you pay is just baffling.
It’s fairly obvious that’s not top of my reasons for generally exiting Britain. At the moment Britain is just depressing. And I have seen far too much of the world to tolerate its bleak drizzly mediocrity especially as I get older and my remaining years dwindle
The fact I will pay less tax is a nice bonus tho. That is true
Don’t blame you.
The U.K. is shit and I had hopes labour would improve it, still have some hope Rachel reeves knows what she’s doing, but Starmer is continuity Sunak. We are in a state of decline and I cannot see anything arresting it.
God knows why anyone wants to risk their life on a dinghy to come here.
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
I would never consider leaving England under any circumstances short of civil war. But from a purely monetary point of view it would certainly be tempting. Currently I pay 49% of my turnover in tax which I think is a ridiculous state of affairs.
More likely, as Labour destroy our energy independence and we move to more and more imports, I will probably move back to working overseas permanently on rotation. Not something I want to do but needs must. It improves both my job prospects and my tax situation. I will still be providing the UK with oil and gas - I will just be doing it from the Middle East or South America.
Many multinationals are offering working from any country they have an office in.
It’s the flip side of WFH.
I seem to recall a lot of Tories saying WFH was terrible and people needed to go back to the office.
There’s a difference between them, who can be trusted to WFH, and the oiks they employ, who can’t.
Ah, yes, like there’s a difference between them, who can be trusted with freedom of movement, and the oiks they employ, who can’t!
And whom they conned into voting for Brexit.
Conned into having full employment and pay rises.
But how terrible that they've lost their 'right' to pick turnips in Transylvania.
Yet strangely those pay rises and full employment are forcing Brexiteer citizens of nowhere to flee these shores as the public sector has to match pay and conditions to keep staff.
It's almost as if they don't give a damn about levelling up.
Why are you so angry recently?
denial anger bargaining depression acceptance
If you think the grief cycle is the only cause of anger then you are pretty foolish.
What do you think I am grieving?
You think bunging cash at public sector workers is levelling up. 😂
Agreeing pay settlements in line with national averages isn't sensibly called "bunging cash at public sector workers". Question is why the previous government of drift didn't do this literally years ago and avoid the inevitable degradation of public services, which at the end of the day is their job to provide.
It’s not levelling up, it’s certainly not going to help left behind communities that need levelling up.
That was my point.
The previous govt wanted something in return. Reform of working practises. Hardly unreasonable for some of the practises still allowed.
The poorer parts of the country tend to have a higher proportion of the workforce in the public sector. The region with the fewest public sector workers is London. Paying public sector workers a decent wage will produce a degree of levelling up.
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
I would never consider leaving England under any circumstances short of civil war. But from a purely monetary point of view it would certainly be tempting. Currently I pay 49% of my turnover in tax which I think is a ridiculous state of affairs.
More likely, as Labour destroy our energy independence and we move to more and more imports, I will probably move back to working overseas permanently on rotation. Not something I want to do but needs must. It improves both my job prospects and my tax situation. I will still be providing the UK with oil and gas - I will just be doing it from the Middle East or South America.
Many multinationals are offering working from any country they have an office in.
It’s the flip side of WFH.
I seem to recall a lot of Tories saying WFH was terrible and people needed to go back to the office.
There’s a difference between them, who can be trusted to WFH, and the oiks they employ, who can’t.
Ah, yes, like there’s a difference between them, who can be trusted with freedom of movement, and the oiks they employ, who can’t!
And whom they conned into voting for Brexit.
Conned into having full employment and pay rises.
But how terrible that they've lost their 'right' to pick turnips in Transylvania.
Yet strangely those pay rises and full employment are forcing Brexiteer citizens of nowhere to flee these shores as the public sector has to match pay and conditions to keep staff.
It's almost as if they don't give a damn about levelling up.
Why are you so angry recently?
denial anger bargaining depression acceptance
If you think the grief cycle is the only cause of anger then you are pretty foolish.
What do you think I am grieving?
You think bunging cash at public sector workers is levelling up. 😂
Agreeing pay settlements in line with national averages isn't sensibly called "bunging cash at public sector workers". Question is why the previous government of drift didn't do this literally years ago and avoid the inevitable degradation of public services, which at the end of the day is their job to provide.
It’s not levelling up, it’s certainly not going to help left behind communities that need levelling up.
That was my point.
The previous govt wanted something in return. Reform of working practises. Hardly unreasonable for some of the practises still allowed.
The poorer parts of the country tend to have a higher proportion of the workforce in the public sector. The region with the fewest public sector workers is London. Paying public sector workers a decent wage will produce a degree of levelling up.
I’m sure they’re dancing on the streets of Stanley this very minute.
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
I would never consider leaving England under any circumstances short of civil war. But from a purely monetary point of view it would certainly be tempting. Currently I pay 49% of my turnover in tax which I think is a ridiculous state of affairs.
More likely, as Labour destroy our energy independence and we move to more and more imports, I will probably move back to working overseas permanently on rotation. Not something I want to do but needs must. It improves both my job prospects and my tax situation. I will still be providing the UK with oil and gas - I will just be doing it from the Middle East or South America.
Many multinationals are offering working from any country they have an office in.
It’s the flip side of WFH.
I seem to recall a lot of Tories saying WFH was terrible and people needed to go back to the office.
There’s a difference between them, who can be trusted to WFH, and the oiks they employ, who can’t.
Ah, yes, like there’s a difference between them, who can be trusted with freedom of movement, and the oiks they employ, who can’t!
And whom they conned into voting for Brexit.
Conned into having full employment and pay rises.
But how terrible that they've lost their 'right' to pick turnips in Transylvania.
Yet strangely those pay rises and full employment are forcing Brexiteer citizens of nowhere to flee these shores as the public sector has to match pay and conditions to keep staff.
It's almost as if they don't give a damn about levelling up.
Why are you so angry recently?
denial anger bargaining depression acceptance
If you think the grief cycle is the only cause of anger then you are pretty foolish.
What do you think I am grieving?
You think bunging cash at public sector workers is levelling up. 😂
Agreeing pay settlements in line with national averages isn't sensibly called "bunging cash at public sector workers". Question is why the previous government of drift didn't do this literally years ago and avoid the inevitable degradation of public services, which at the end of the day is their job to provide.
It’s not levelling up, it’s certainly not going to help left behind communities that need levelling up.
That was my point.
The previous govt wanted something in return. Reform of working practises. Hardly unreasonable for some of the practises still allowed.
Trouble is that the alternative to paying up was ongoing strikes and unfilled vacancies, which also suck.
Often, there's no good plan with no drawbacks, just a choice of which drawbacks to swallow.
Apart from Gilbert & Sullivan, computer gaming and dressage I can't think of anything I'm less interested in than GE Voting Intention polls when the last GE was 2 months ago and the next one is in 5 years.
But thank you, John.
Translation: that's not a good poll for Labour, and I don't want to hear it.
No, I'm perfectly serious about my supreme lack of interest in UK polls right now.
US polls - different story. Living and breathing those.
No interest in Gilbert & Sullivan? Are you a citizen of nowhere?
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
I would never consider leaving England under any circumstances short of civil war. But from a purely monetary point of view it would certainly be tempting. Currently I pay 49% of my turnover in tax which I think is a ridiculous state of affairs.
More likely, as Labour destroy our energy independence and we move to more and more imports, I will probably move back to working overseas permanently on rotation. Not something I want to do but needs must. It improves both my job prospects and my tax situation. I will still be providing the UK with oil and gas - I will just be doing it from the Middle East or South America.
Many multinationals are offering working from any country they have an office in.
It’s the flip side of WFH.
I seem to recall a lot of Tories saying WFH was terrible and people needed to go back to the office.
There’s a difference between them, who can be trusted to WFH, and the oiks they employ, who can’t.
Ah, yes, like there’s a difference between them, who can be trusted with freedom of movement, and the oiks they employ, who can’t!
And whom they conned into voting for Brexit.
Conned into having full employment and pay rises.
But how terrible that they've lost their 'right' to pick turnips in Transylvania.
Yet strangely those pay rises and full employment are forcing Brexiteer citizens of nowhere to flee these shores as the public sector has to match pay and conditions to keep staff.
It's almost as if they don't give a damn about levelling up.
Why are you so angry recently?
denial anger bargaining depression acceptance
If you think the grief cycle is the only cause of anger then you are pretty foolish.
What do you think I am grieving?
You think bunging cash at public sector workers is levelling up. 😂
Agreeing pay settlements in line with national averages isn't sensibly called "bunging cash at public sector workers". Question is why the previous government of drift didn't do this literally years ago and avoid the inevitable degradation of public services, which at the end of the day is their job to provide.
Pay increases in the public sector should be much lower than in the private sector, as pay should increase in line with productivity and productivity is increasing far slower (or actually falling) in government than in industry.
And takehome pay should be far lower in the public sector for comparable jobs in the private sector because public sector pensions and job security are far better.
Who knew? It’s magnificent in the slant late summer sun
Have you had a chance to go to Lake Skardar ?
Ha! I canoed that with my son. LOTS of paddling. But a beautiful place, and fun to dock in the village and have a few cold ones before returning to the water. Quite funny watching the border guards zip around the lake in their motorboats trying to prevent tourists from inadvertently crossing illegally into Albania!
Apart from Gilbert & Sullivan, computer gaming and dressage I can't think of anything I'm less interested in than GE Voting Intention polls when the last GE was 2 months ago and the next one is in 5 years.
But thank you, John.
Translation: that's not a good poll for Labour, and I don't want to hear it.
No, I'm perfectly serious about my supreme lack of interest in UK polls right now.
US polls - different story. Living and breathing those.
No interest in Gilbert & Sullivan? Are you a citizen of nowhere?
On topic - the issue is the strange, some would say wierd, ecosystem that so many Cons seem to live in. An online world of culture wars and talking points that are often based on a US political reality that is far from identical to our own. It just does not chime with the mass of UK voters' interests and priorities.
Even in the US it leads to interesting missteps. Vance used the 'crazy cat ladies' line because in the world of 8chan that is the 'harmless' cover phrase for more overtly offensive anti-woman beliefs. He didn't understand that in the real world even that 'safe' cover phrase makes you look like a freak.
Well I've done a buy of Liverpool on the spreads for this season (because I think they've replaced a good manager with a great one) and early days etc but I certainly wouldn't take it back.
Well I've done a buy of Liverpool on the spreads for this season (because I think they've replaced a good manager with a great one) and early days etc but I certainly wouldn't take it back.
It’s hard to tell, we’ve had an easy run of fixtures and won’t know how good we are until we play a team who might finish in the top half.
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
I would never consider leaving England under any circumstances short of civil war. But from a purely monetary point of view it would certainly be tempting. Currently I pay 49% of my turnover in tax which I think is a ridiculous state of affairs.
More likely, as Labour destroy our energy independence and we move to more and more imports, I will probably move back to working overseas permanently on rotation. Not something I want to do but needs must. It improves both my job prospects and my tax situation. I will still be providing the UK with oil and gas - I will just be doing it from the Middle East or South America.
Many multinationals are offering working from any country they have an office in.
It’s the flip side of WFH.
I seem to recall a lot of Tories saying WFH was terrible and people needed to go back to the office.
There’s a difference between them, who can be trusted to WFH, and the oiks they employ, who can’t.
Ah, yes, like there’s a difference between them, who can be trusted with freedom of movement, and the oiks they employ, who can’t!
And whom they conned into voting for Brexit.
Conned into having full employment and pay rises.
But how terrible that they've lost their 'right' to pick turnips in Transylvania.
Yet strangely those pay rises and full employment are forcing Brexiteer citizens of nowhere to flee these shores as the public sector has to match pay and conditions to keep staff.
It's almost as if they don't give a damn about levelling up.
Why are you so angry recently?
denial anger bargaining depression acceptance
If you think the grief cycle is the only cause of anger then you are pretty foolish.
What do you think I am grieving?
You think bunging cash at public sector workers is levelling up. 😂
Agreeing pay settlements in line with national averages isn't sensibly called "bunging cash at public sector workers". Question is why the previous government of drift didn't do this literally years ago and avoid the inevitable degradation of public services, which at the end of the day is their job to provide.
Pay increases in the public sector should be much lower than in the private sector, as pay should increase in line with productivity and productivity is increasing far slower (or actually falling) in government than in industry.
And takehome pay should be far lower in the public sector for comparable jobs in the private sector because public sector pensions and job security are far better.
There is no "should be" in a competitive labour market. It's not values based, and salaries do not reflect productivity but rather the demand and supply for particular roles.
This effect is summarised here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol_effect. And is also why I think labour-intensive jobs like healthcare will come to dominate our economy over time.
That looks like an excellent example of Exquisite Torture, as I believe Paddy Ashdown described the 2010 result.
AfD can't want to govern on a third of the votes, especially if the really relevant levers of power are still in Berlin.
How, though, do you get a stable government out of that?
How do you solve a problem like Eastern Germany?
How does it compare with polling? Does it validate my theory that the centre right always outperforms and the far right always underperforms the polls?
I think the budget will be the big test in the next few months. In the unlikely event that massive tax rises land well, Labour could stabilise. As it'll probably be hugely painful, especially among floating voters where it counts, and Reeves has shown political tin ears and economic incompetence ("That's a great idea. Let's just tax our way to growth!"), crossover could come much earlier than Christmas.
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
And with remote working now available to basically anyone suddenly people are much more mobile. Were I to go both my wife and I would keep our current jobs and we'd just shift to overseas payroll. I'd need to come to the London office for 2 working days per month and my wife's terms are 10 working days per quarter.
Yes. And of course all the “oh they’ll never go” lefty wankers ignore this. A revolution. I can do all my work abroad without a hitch. Even things like moving are so much easier. Books and music are all digital and kept on tiny devices
Plus British weather is shit and worsening and British towns are ugly and getting uglier and mass immigration is, shall we say, not necessarily always adding to the attractions of UK life
I noticed the other day that England and Wales have the highest rape rates in Europe. Higher than Sweden. Absolutely true. Go look for yourself
As someone who has benefitted from opportunities to live and work in numerous different countries, the idea of choosing to live your life purely to minimise how much tax you pay is just baffling.
It’s fairly obvious that’s not top of my reasons for generally exiting Britain. At the moment Britain is just depressing. And I have seen far too much of the world to tolerate its bleak drizzly mediocrity especially as I get older and my remaining years dwindle
The fact I will pay less tax is a nice bonus tho. That is true
That's nice but I mean I don't think it was you we were discussing. I reckon you won't be getting rid of that London flat quite yet.
People worried about paying higher taxes are worried about seeing no return for their taxes. What is needed is quick and easy evidence of improvement. Something like a blitz on potholes would do the job. Unfortunately, fixing the NHS, our infrastructure or the asylum system won’t be quick or easy, but if people see something positive happening, they will be more patient with fixing the big issues.
One thing that I find interesting is the *type* of people who are thinking of moving.
Not just business owners, but employees on high salaries. And given the collapse in contracting, these people are nearly all on PAYE.
So the idea that they aren’t paying a lot of tax already is simply impossible.
I would never consider leaving England under any circumstances short of civil war. But from a purely monetary point of view it would certainly be tempting. Currently I pay 49% of my turnover in tax which I think is a ridiculous state of affairs.
More likely, as Labour destroy our energy independence and we move to more and more imports, I will probably move back to working overseas permanently on rotation. Not something I want to do but needs must. It improves both my job prospects and my tax situation. I will still be providing the UK with oil and gas - I will just be doing it from the Middle East or South America.
Many multinationals are offering working from any country they have an office in.
It’s the flip side of WFH.
I seem to recall a lot of Tories saying WFH was terrible and people needed to go back to the office.
There’s a difference between them, who can be trusted to WFH, and the oiks they employ, who can’t.
Ah, yes, like there’s a difference between them, who can be trusted with freedom of movement, and the oiks they employ, who can’t!
And whom they conned into voting for Brexit.
Conned into having full employment and pay rises.
But how terrible that they've lost their 'right' to pick turnips in Transylvania.
Yet strangely those pay rises and full employment are forcing Brexiteer citizens of nowhere to flee these shores as the public sector has to match pay and conditions to keep staff.
It's almost as if they don't give a damn about levelling up.
Why are you so angry recently?
denial anger bargaining depression acceptance
If you think the grief cycle is the only cause of anger then you are pretty foolish.
What do you think I am grieving?
You think bunging cash at public sector workers is levelling up. 😂
Agreeing pay settlements in line with national averages isn't sensibly called "bunging cash at public sector workers". Question is why the previous government of drift didn't do this literally years ago and avoid the inevitable degradation of public services, which at the end of the day is their job to provide.
Pay increases in the public sector should be much lower than in the private sector, as pay should increase in line with productivity and productivity is increasing far slower (or actually falling) in government than in industry.
And takehome pay should be far lower in the public sector for comparable jobs in the private sector because public sector pensions and job security are far better.
But there is no "should"- that's lefty talk. There are three things, and there always have been:
1. What's the lowest pay and worst conditions the employees are willing to accept before they kick off or walk away?
2. What's the highest pay and cushiest conditions that the employers are willing to offer before they decide to do without the role?
3. How much power does each side have to haggle within the range set by 1 and 2?
The category error we've seen recently is that the outgoing government saw things in terms of point 3- by being steely and resolute, they could hold the pay bill down. What they didn't notice (or chose to overlook) was the significance of point 1. Telling people that they ought to be grateful for what they're getting and really ought to be paid less doesn't work.
Apart from Gilbert & Sullivan, computer gaming and dressage I can't think of anything I'm less interested in than GE Voting Intention polls when the last GE was 2 months ago and the next one is in 5 years.
But thank you, John.
Translation: that's not a good poll for Labour, and I don't want to hear it.
No, I'm perfectly serious about my supreme lack of interest in UK polls right now.
US polls - different story. Living and breathing those.
No interest in Gilbert & Sullivan? Are you a citizen of nowhere?
I like Gilbert 'O' Sullivan. He's underrated. I think - in this shallow world - because of his looks.
Comments
What do you think I am grieving?
They spent a billion Euros to clean up the river, yet the news system cannot even cope with the excess rainfall in summer.
Presidential poll if Trump dropped out:
Harris 57%
Vance 39%
There's your MAGA floor.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkZVPcqqCKE
He is a really effective Chief Exec. Excellent at delivery.
His political antennae, however, are off on this.
Until Reform is extinguished, at least in 2019 Tory seats, there is no chance of a Tory govt.
He argued that many of the wartime democracies’ so-called ‘plans for rescue’ of the Jews were figments of postwar historians’ imaginations
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2024/09/01/william-rubinstein-historian-holocaust-shakespeare/ (£££)
Mentioned because Rubinstein was at Aberystwyth which *might* be @ydoethur's alma mater.
The public sector don't realise they're born compared to the private sector. Safe jobs and decent pensions, particularly for those who aren't strong performers. It is they, not those of us who pay the bill, who ought to stop whingeing.
But more important than that, I didn't vote for puritanical socialists to tell people what they should and shouldn't do in their private lives.
I suspect Labour polling at 30% is going to looked upon wistfully by those on the left come September 1 2025....
But thank you, John.
I think he's going to poll between 43 and 45.
And I don't think anyone has a plan to solve either of those problems without making the other one worse.
(When did Red Wall Theory come into play? I want to say 2017. Adding older northern WWC voters to the Conservative tally was a gain, but only as long as it didn't repel younger southern metropolitan voters. That second shoe took a while to drop.)
And best part of 5 years Buyers' Remorse for LibDem and Reform voters.
The people of Britain needed a stark reminder of what Labour Governments mean.
They got it.
Similar posts were being made in 2019.
Reality is more complex.
Had the Tories got sub 80 seats, I think Reform would have taken over and see mass defections.
Because they didn't, and amid a backdrop of a hugely unpopular new PM with incredible flat-footed political responses who seems intent on soaking the 'rich' (i.e., anyone in the middle class), I suspect we could easily be looking at a hung parliament by the next election.
You might want to change it to: "Labourite cope" line ....
We did try to warn people didn't we! 😈
May 2028 if Labour are confident of winning.
May 2029 if they expect to lose.
And remember kiddos, Callaghan was ahead of Maggie by this point after the 1979 general election.
And we all know how that ended up.
Robert Jenrick, come on down.....
The Giant Dickheads In Giant SUVs now have e-bikes and are Giant Dickheads on E-Bikes etc.
2020 46.8%
2024 ?? Trump's favourability ratings seem pretty good compared to 2016 and 2020.
I find it hard to see him receiving a lower share of the vote than in 2020.
Might be prudent, I suppose.
(Can't be bothered to go through the details, but immigration was such a fiasco for so long that he's bound to have skeletons in his closet there.)
In 2028 it starts to become interesting. It looks like Starmer expects that the hard grind is done by thenand results are showing in terms of public finances and services.
He might be right, he may be wrong, but that's the plan.
I'm still boggled that the election was called for July. Sunak could still be PM and sending planeloads of people to Rwanda if he hadn't called the election.
The Liberal Democrats aren't taking it.
Right-wing bloc: 45%
Whatever you want us to be: 11%
I only mention this as I expect Rachel to bring in a 5% investment income surcharge. Rachel and Keir don't like people to have savings.
New Mentour Pilot video on the infamous Saudi air incident Flight 163 in 1980.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pgug1I5_UlU
It's your absolute right but I find the whinging a bit tedious. Your kind of politics doesn't have a right to be in the saddle, you know, and for the next few years it isn't and won't be. If it's any comfort there are also plenty of people on the left (Corbynites and others) who are pissed off with the election result.
Well, tough titty to you and to them too. Your party got hammered. The radical Left had their chance when they controlled Labour and they blew it.
I suspect Labour would be happy with that.
Obviously both the poll and Electoral Calculus are completely meaningless at this point. My first checkpoint will be next year's English Council Elections. The Conservatives have had a string of bad results here. Will they start to turn this round?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cStleQJK5Zo
The more I see of Jenrick the more he seems determined to follow the style of Poilievre in Canada.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq6rj3n8nrdo
Onto more pressing matters. Why is this the flattest Man Utd v Liverpool game since…forever!
And I suppose you think Hamas have been 'discerning' ?
I'll ask you a simple, straight question. No deflection.
Was Hamas justified in kidnapping those people, holding them in horrific conditions for eleven months and then executing them, in cold blood.
?
Graveyards are full of irreplaceable men. The reality is, particularly in tech and finance there are almost always ambitious young wolves with a lean and hungry look to take advantage of any gap that appears. Often migrants from overseas of course, but should pass the income test.
US polls - different story. Living and breathing those.
Thuringia looks fascinating with Alternativ set to top the state poll with about 30% leaving the CDU on 22% and Linke losing more than half their support to around 15%. The Bundnis Wagenknecht (BSW) set to finish third with 17-20%/
The FDP and Greens will miss out and the SPD might as well.
I imagine the story over here will be all about Alternativ but for me the real story in both states will be the rise of BSW.
Government formation in both states post election will be interesting though I think Kretschmer will carry on in Saxony. For AfD and BSW this is the point where protest politics meets the real world.
Hamas kidnapped those people 11 months ago from kibbutzes and music festivals and subjected them to months of torture.
Have a word with yourself.
Everyone in my team, apart from me, is a first generation immigrant. If Working From The Algave appeals, they have much less binding them to this country. Why should it?
I'm picturing the beauty spots and beaches of the world cluttered with British digital nomarks, sorry nomads!, all adding value there instead of here. It's a grim thought.
@SezionePolitica
🗳️🇩🇪 Elezioni Statali #Sassonia
Exit Poll - ZDF
⚫️ CDU: 32%
🔵 AfD: 31,5%
🟣 BSW: 11,5%
🌹SPD: 7,5%
🟢 Verdi: 5%
🔴Die Linke: 4,5%
Soglia di sbarramento: 5%
#ltw2024 #ltwSachsen2024"
https://x.com/SezionePolitica/status/1830274659901939804
@ElectsWorld
🇩🇪#Germany, Thuringia state election exit poll:
AfD: 33,5 %
CDU: 24,5 %
BSW: 14,5 %
Die Linke: 11,5 %
SPD: 6,5 %
Grüne: 4 %
FDP: 1 %
Others: 4,5 %
ZDF,
#thueringenwahl2024"
https://x.com/ElectsWorld/status/1830275207204078029
The fact I will pay less tax is a nice bonus tho. That is true
Thuringia looks a right mess - AfD will have 30 seats, CDU 24 seats, BSW 15, Linke 12 and the SPD 7. Not easy to see how to get to 45 to form a majority Government. Could AfD try to form a minority?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tara_River_Canyon
“Third deepest canyon in the world”
Who knew? It’s magnificent in the slant late summer sun
That was my point.
The previous govt wanted something in return. Reform of working practises. Hardly unreasonable for some of the practises still allowed.
AfD can't want to govern on a third of the votes, especially if the really relevant levers of power are still in Berlin.
How, though, do you get a stable government out of that?
How do you solve a problem like Eastern Germany?
The U.K. is shit and I had hopes labour would improve it, still have some hope Rachel reeves knows what she’s doing, but Starmer is continuity Sunak. We are in a state of decline and I cannot see anything arresting it.
God knows why anyone wants to risk their life on a dinghy to come here.
Often, there's no good plan with no drawbacks, just a choice of which drawbacks to swallow.
And takehome pay should be far lower in the public sector for comparable jobs in the private sector because public sector pensions and job security are far better.
Even in the US it leads to interesting missteps. Vance used the 'crazy cat ladies' line because in the world of 8chan that is the 'harmless' cover phrase for more overtly offensive anti-woman beliefs. He didn't understand that in the real world even that 'safe' cover phrase makes you look like a freak.
This effect is summarised here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol_effect. And is also why I think labour-intensive jobs like healthcare will come to dominate our economy over time.
1. What's the lowest pay and worst conditions the employees are willing to accept before they kick off or walk away?
2. What's the highest pay and cushiest conditions that the employers are willing to offer before they decide to do without the role?
3. How much power does each side have to haggle within the range set by 1 and 2?
The category error we've seen recently is that the outgoing government saw things in terms of point 3- by being steely and resolute, they could hold the pay bill down. What they didn't notice (or chose to overlook) was the significance of point 1. Telling people that they ought to be grateful for what they're getting and really ought to be paid less doesn't work.