Jenrick remains the favourite to succeed Sunak – politicalbetting.com

Leon said:

Alanbrooke said:

Leon said:

kle4 said:

Jenrick seems most likely to bring back Reform voters? And will he really drive off that many still voting for the Tories, the core voters?

So he probably will do well in the contest despite or even because of his remarks.

He looks like a nice safe Cameroon, I don't believe he will frighten anyone. It's bollocks

There is more to the allegations that he is greedy and the like, but then he's a Tory, greed is to Tories as canting hypocrisy is to Labour. Also, crucially, his greed has made him a rich man, through his own hard work. He is NOT an Old Etonian, he is NOT Rishi the Billionaire

Also, and finally, the Tories need to be thinking about how to fight the next war, not the last one. They really DO need those Reform voters to return, who is likely to do that, without alienating the centre right?

It will HAVE to be someone firm on immigration, because - sadly - this pivotal issue is going to dominate from now on, along with the economy

The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad. Tories should ignore lefties advising them to become like the Lib Dems, that advice is either disingenuous or clueless

I want a BAME Loto, that way I wont have to listen to 5 years of Lefty dross on race and women. Old pasty face Starmer just wont cut it.

A fair point

If its not Jenrick, it should be Badenoch. I quite like Patel but she is obviously not liked by trillions of my fellow Brits, so it's pointless

My fear is that Badenoch is a kind of featherweight ideologue. She's a thinker, she's not a politician. She's brittle and intellectual and a bit globalist. A kind of Davos woman of the right. She's an addition to the party, but leader? No

However she'd be my second choice. if the Tories go for Cleverly or Tugendhat they are admitting defeat in the next election, too, and also risking destruction by Reform

Priti Patel was the architect of Rwanda, or at least her dabs were found on the smoking gun. That is probably a weakness because Rwanda never looked like working but could turn positive if illegal immigration rockets over the next two months. Priti is Boris's man but does that count for much these days? And the Oxbridge snobs in the media won't have this Essex graduate.

Scott_xP said:

Oh

@christinafinn8

Taoiseach Simon Harris says the era of self regulation by social media companies is over

He’s prepared to meet Elon Musk and other social media company execs to discuss Irish government plans for financial sanctions and personal liabilities for failing to remove harmful content

https://x.com/christinafinn8/status/1821149335028990404

The top article on the Spectator website is European concerns over something similar happening over there. Looks like they will try and get ahead of it.

Leon said:

kle4 said:

Jenrick seems most likely to bring back Reform voters? And will he really drive off that many still voting for the Tories, the core voters?

So he probably will do well in the contest despite or even because of his remarks.

He looks like a nice safe Cameroon, I don't believe he will frighten anyone. It's bollocks

There is more to the allegations that he is greedy and the like, but then he's a Tory, greed is to Tories as canting hypocrisy is to Labour. Also, crucially, his greed has made him a rich man, through his own hard work. He is NOT an Old Etonian, he is NOT Rishi the Billionaire

Also, and finally, the Tories need to be thinking about how to fight the next war, not the last one. They really DO need those Reform voters to return, who is likely to do that, without alienating the centre right?

It will HAVE to be someone firm on immigration, because - sadly - this pivotal issue is going to dominate from now on, along with the economy

The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad. Tories should ignore lefties advising them to become like the Lib Dems, that advice is either disingenuous or clueless

If your Camden pad is leasehold, you should not be voting Jenrick. The guy stymied leasehold reform and was on the side of developers who lobbied against any kind of reform. Net result is that leasehold flats have significantly underperformed the rest of the UK housing market - so if you are a leaseholder (which most of us in London are) the guy has literally lost you a ton of money.

Leaving aside all the other stuff about the mural-painting, lockdown-breaking, expenses-grabbing, self-serving little toad, the guy was possibly the worst housing minister we have ever had, and that is up against some stiff competition. Compare and contrast with Gove, who was actually quite good in the role, and is one of the few Tories I still like.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eek said:

williamglenn said:

There’s an interesting phenomenon on TikTok at the moment of liberal white women breaking down in tears because Tim Walz reminds them of their dads before political polarisation affected their relationships.

They blame this all on losing their dads to the MAGA movement, but if you listen to them, it’s clear that to a large extent they are the ones who have been radicalised and their dads have the same views they always had.

That's a demonstration of the misremembered idyllic childhood which is equally true of the many people who vote Reform and are rioting at the moment.

They misremember a "better" country / world that never quite existed which they wish to return to.

They accurately remember a better country in which small girls could dance to Taylor Swift without being slashed to ribbons by maniac knifemen, which, lest we forget, is what triggered this.

Taylor Swift triggered this?

stodge said:

Alanbrooke said:

Leon said:

kle4 said:

Jenrick seems most likely to bring back Reform voters? And will he really drive off that many still voting for the Tories, the core voters?

So he probably will do well in the contest despite or even because of his remarks.

He looks like a nice safe Cameroon, I don't believe he will frighten anyone. It's bollocks

There is more to the allegations that he is greedy and the like, but then he's a Tory, greed is to Tories as canting hypocrisy is to Labour. Also, crucially, his greed has made him a rich man, through his own hard work. He is NOT an Old Etonian, he is NOT Rishi the Billionaire

Also, and finally, the Tories need to be thinking about how to fight the next war, not the last one. They really DO need those Reform voters to return, who is likely to do that, without alienating the centre right?

It will HAVE to be someone firm on immigration, because - sadly - this pivotal issue is going to dominate from now on, along with the economy

The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad. Tories should ignore lefties advising them to become like the Lib Dems, that advice is either disingenuous or clueless

I want a BAME Loto, that way I wont have to listen to 5 years of Lefty dross on race and women. Old pasty face Starmer just wont cut it.

Let's be fair - you'd prefer a half-open pot noodle to Starmer.

Well that's hardly news. However setting my personal dislike aside I am surprised at just how inept his government has been. The honeymoon has been remarkably short.

Perhaps he will get a grip and he's just having teething problems or it might be the shitshow that was the Cons masked Labours inadequacies.

Un shitshow peut en cacher un autre

rcs1000 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eek said:

williamglenn said:

There’s an interesting phenomenon on TikTok at the moment of liberal white women breaking down in tears because Tim Walz reminds them of their dads before political polarisation affected their relationships.

They blame this all on losing their dads to the MAGA movement, but if you listen to them, it’s clear that to a large extent they are the ones who have been radicalised and their dads have the same views they always had.

That's a demonstration of the misremembered idyllic childhood which is equally true of the many people who vote Reform and are rioting at the moment.

They misremember a "better" country / world that never quite existed which they wish to return to.

They accurately remember a better country in which small girls could dance to Taylor Swift without being slashed to ribbons by maniac knifemen, which, lest we forget, is what triggered this.

Taylor Swift triggered this?

I did wonder when she was going to get the blame.

Leon said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eek said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eek said:

williamglenn said:

There’s an interesting phenomenon on TikTok at the moment of liberal white women breaking down in tears because Tim Walz reminds them of their dads before political polarisation affected their relationships.

They blame this all on losing their dads to the MAGA movement, but if you listen to them, it’s clear that to a large extent they are the ones who have been radicalised and their dads have the same views they always had.

That's a demonstration of the misremembered idyllic childhood which is equally true of the many people who vote Reform and are rioting at the moment.

They misremember a "better" country / world that never quite existed which they wish to return to.

They accurately remember a better country in which small girls could dance to Taylor Swift without being slashed to ribbons by maniac knifemen, which, lest we forget, is what triggered this.

No it didn't - a set of lies posted on social media blaming a Muslim asylum seeker triggered the riots.

Potato, potato.

And that might be the next point of controversy for two tier Keir. The rioters are being sent down while the Swiftie-killer is still on remand. And what of airport head-stamp man, both the copper and the two who attacked the police? It's all on video so why is no-one in court?

This is a very fair question being asked on TwiX. Where are the Manchester police attackers? Have they even been charged?? It's not like there's a lack of evidence

Brisk justice is all very bracing, but again, is it two tier, Sir Kier?

Is Sir Keir now personally administering the policing, arrests, charging and trials of every crime that happens in Britain? If he is then perhaps that's a good thing - as we saw from his electoral triumph the man's capable of super-human accomplishments - but didn't Magna Carta have something to say about that?

Stark_Dawning said:

Leon said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eek said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eek said:

williamglenn said:

There’s an interesting phenomenon on TikTok at the moment of liberal white women breaking down in tears because Tim Walz reminds them of their dads before political polarisation affected their relationships.

They blame this all on losing their dads to the MAGA movement, but if you listen to them, it’s clear that to a large extent they are the ones who have been radicalised and their dads have the same views they always had.

That's a demonstration of the misremembered idyllic childhood which is equally true of the many people who vote Reform and are rioting at the moment.

They misremember a "better" country / world that never quite existed which they wish to return to.

They accurately remember a better country in which small girls could dance to Taylor Swift without being slashed to ribbons by maniac knifemen, which, lest we forget, is what triggered this.

No it didn't - a set of lies posted on social media blaming a Muslim asylum seeker triggered the riots.

Potato, potato.

And that might be the next point of controversy for two tier Keir. The rioters are being sent down while the Swiftie-killer is still on remand. And what of airport head-stamp man, both the copper and the two who attacked the police? It's all on video so why is no-one in court?

This is a very fair question being asked on TwiX. Where are the Manchester police attackers? Have they even been charged?? It's not like there's a lack of evidence

Brisk justice is all very bracing, but again, is it two tier, Sir Kier?

Is Sir Keir now personally administering the policing, arrests, charging and trials of every crime that happens in Britain? If he is then perhaps that's a good thing - as we saw from his electoral triumph the man's capable of super-human accomplishments - but didn't Magna Carta have something to say about that?

If not, he's a fucking slacker.

TheScreamingEagles said:

kyf_100 said:

Third, like the Tories will be if Jenrick is leader.

I like your optimism.

My hope is that he campaigns in culture wars poetry and leads in centrist prose.

He was a centrist until Brexit/immigration radicalised him.

What you advocate (Blairism with lower taxes) wouldn't get close to 20% of the vote, let alone 30%+.

The Tories won't be coming back into office without a firm offer on solving immigration and cultural relativism/toxic identity politics, and it's a hard age not a soft one, so best get used to it rather than pretend it's still 2005.

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

Burgessian said:

Leon said:

The markets are right. Jenrick is favourite

Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?

This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that

Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone

Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.

Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.

I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.

Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.

Yes, exactly right

What's more, Labour are gonna gift the Tories the opportunity to do all this in one term, by being mega-woke, shite on the economy, probably even worse on the boats, probably as bad on migration, and generally very annoying and whiny

Starmer only got 24% on a 60% turnout. He is not popular, and he will grow much less popular as all this emerges. Amazingly, the Tories will have a real chance in 2028. But first - as you correctly identify - they have to strangle the Reform viper

I doubt the Johnson's coalition of pensionable red waller's and the comfortable south can be repeated. Reform have taken the angry vote and its not foreseeably coming back.

I honestly believe Johnsonism has killed the Conservatives. So the Cons can either die with dignity or slowly attrit while their membership does.

Alanbrooke said:

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

Burgessian said:

Leon said:

The markets are right. Jenrick is favourite

Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?

This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that

Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone

Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.

Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.

I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.

Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.

Yes, exactly right

What's more, Labour are gonna gift the Tories the opportunity to do all this in one term, by being mega-woke, shite on the economy, probably even worse on the boats, probably as bad on migration, and generally very annoying and whiny

Starmer only got 24% on a 60% turnout. He is not popular, and he will grow much less popular as all this emerges. Amazingly, the Tories will have a real chance in 2028. But first - as you correctly identify - they have to strangle the Reform viper

They need a pact with Reform where Reform stand in those Labour seats the Tories have no chance of winning. The Tory purists are aghast but if Churchill could cut a deal with Stalin then hold your nose. They can then Blue wall until there hearts are content.

I think this is the worst of all worlds for the Conservative Party.

A pact allows them to be portrayed as being the same as Reform, while also allowing Reform to grow in importance. The Conservative Party depends on being the only party of the right: they need to destroy Reform.

They are fortunate in this in that Reform is led by Nigel Farage, and Nigel - like Ray Davies - falls out with everyone he works with. And also that Reform has, so far, shown little interest in getting their foot in the door in local government.

The next Conservative leader should tack right, and ensure there is no space for Reform. After Reform has been destroyed they can look to expand the tent.

Leon said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Carnyx said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

I'm confused as you seem to be saying that the St John's, Cambridge educated lawyer isn't that bright as he doesn't seem to think through the consequences of his ideas..

Although electing him will confirm to many people that the Tory party are the nasty party.

There’s something wrong at St John’s as they also accepted Richard Burgon.

I know. They accepted a friend of mine. Whose academic career consisted in part of throwing waterfilled johnnies at the punters below his room window.

Who hasn't engaged in that joyous pastime? TBH I had completely forgotten about it, and wonder whether the hilarity that it once caused might be worth another go!

I’m going to do it this very afternoon

In fact I think we should all do it, as a protest against the riots (by all sides)

At 5pm sharp every able-bodied PB-er should gather at his/her window and throw water-filled jimmy hats at bemused bypassers, then after a few minutes we should stop, and return to our normal lives, without offering any explanation for our behaviour

Dropping a water-soaked full loaf just behind them so it goes SPLAT! and leaves an unrecognisable mush is much more satisfying, as the try to work out what sort of creature has just plummeted to its death....

Alanbrooke said:

Leon said:

kle4 said:

Jenrick seems most likely to bring back Reform voters? And will he really drive off that many still voting for the Tories, the core voters?

So he probably will do well in the contest despite or even because of his remarks.

He looks like a nice safe Cameroon, I don't believe he will frighten anyone. It's bollocks

There is more to the allegations that he is greedy and the like, but then he's a Tory, greed is to Tories as canting hypocrisy is to Labour. Also, crucially, his greed has made him a rich man, through his own hard work. He is NOT an Old Etonian, he is NOT Rishi the Billionaire

Also, and finally, the Tories need to be thinking about how to fight the next war, not the last one. They really DO need those Reform voters to return, who is likely to do that, without alienating the centre right?

It will HAVE to be someone firm on immigration, because - sadly - this pivotal issue is going to dominate from now on, along with the economy

The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad. Tories should ignore lefties advising them to become like the Lib Dems, that advice is either disingenuous or clueless

I want a BAME Loto, that way I wont have to listen to 5 years of Lefty dross on race and women. Old pasty face Starmer just wont cut it.

Oh, you will.

They will just say she's the wrong sort of BAME or has sold out BAME people.

Anyway, I'm done with all that. All history now as far as I'm concerned.

Best candidate wins. And that's exactly how it should be.

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.

Leon said:

The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad.

One of these takes is correct...

@Leon is more likely to be correct.

(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government

I can see what flying pigs would look like.

That doesn't mean they will come to pass.

rcs1000 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eek said:

williamglenn said:

There’s an interesting phenomenon on TikTok at the moment of liberal white women breaking down in tears because Tim Walz reminds them of their dads before political polarisation affected their relationships.

They blame this all on losing their dads to the MAGA movement, but if you listen to them, it’s clear that to a large extent they are the ones who have been radicalised and their dads have the same views they always had.

That's a demonstration of the misremembered idyllic childhood which is equally true of the many people who vote Reform and are rioting at the moment.

They misremember a "better" country / world that never quite existed which they wish to return to.

They accurately remember a better country in which small girls could dance to Taylor Swift without being slashed to ribbons by maniac knifemen, which, lest we forget, is what triggered this.

Taylor Swift triggered this?

She's triggering MAGA today...

Crossover looms.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176878927

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.

Leon said:

The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad.

One of these takes is correct...

@Leon is more likely to be correct.

(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government

Because of stuff like THIS


"Labour scraps previous government’s ‘British workers’ social housing allocation plan"

https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/home/labour-scraps-previous-governments-british-workers-social-housing-allocation-plan-87937

Labour are going to become blisteringly unpopular very quickly. They are pushing a Woke, pro-more-migration agenda at the very moment when the country is firmly rowing the other way (even as we all recoil from these horrible riots)

Did Leon get into his flat eventually?

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

Burgessian said:

Leon said:

The markets are right. Jenrick is favourite

Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?

This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that

Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone

Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.

Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.

I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.

Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.

Yes, exactly right

What's more, Labour are gonna gift the Tories the opportunity to do all this in one term, by being mega-woke, shite on the economy, probably even worse on the boats, probably as bad on migration, and generally very annoying and whiny

Starmer only got 24% on a 60% turnout. He is not popular, and he will grow much less popular as all this emerges. Amazingly, the Tories will have a real chance in 2028. But first - as you correctly identify - they have to strangle the Reform viper

Spot on. He will royally fuck off LD curious voters through wrecking pensions, shares, VAT on private schools and jacking up high end taxes (so there's 20 to 30 seats to go at there, at least) and really rile the Reform curious with the Woke crusade in education and by an open-door policy in immigration. Meaning many return to the colours and the Tories rake in a further 50-60 seats there too.

Strangely, and I wouldn't usually say this and I'd expect to be called delusional if I did, if the Tories play it right (and that's from automatic) they should easily get 200+ seats and, if Starmer flushes it all down the toilet, they could get to 300+ seats again in one hit too.

They need to have a better team, better plan, and better solutions. And then it's very possible.

Media Prog is fascinating today. Apologies if its been posted already but the person who first posted the lie about the Southport murderer being a Muslim boat person was a Cheshire housewife living in a £1,500,000 house married with three grown up children. The really fascinating part is that this company could trace who it was and they explain how they did it

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0021jb0

Mexicanpete said:

...

Leon said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eek said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eek said:

williamglenn said:

There’s an interesting phenomenon on TikTok at the moment of liberal white women breaking down in tears because Tim Walz reminds them of their dads before political polarisation affected their relationships.

They blame this all on losing their dads to the MAGA movement, but if you listen to them, it’s clear that to a large extent they are the ones who have been radicalised and their dads have the same views they always had.

That's a demonstration of the misremembered idyllic childhood which is equally true of the many people who vote Reform and are rioting at the moment.

They misremember a "better" country / world that never quite existed which they wish to return to.

They accurately remember a better country in which small girls could dance to Taylor Swift without being slashed to ribbons by maniac knifemen, which, lest we forget, is what triggered this.

No it didn't - a set of lies posted on social media blaming a Muslim asylum seeker triggered the riots.

Potato, potato.

And that might be the next point of controversy for two tier Keir. The rioters are being sent down while the Swiftie-killer is still on remand. And what of airport head-stamp man, both the copper and the two who attacked the police? It's all on video so why is no-one in court?

This is a very fair question being asked on TwiX. Where are the Manchester police attackers? Have they even been charged?? It's not like there's a lack of evidence

Brisk justice is all very bracing, but again, is it two tier, Sir Kier?

This is true. Patriots going to jail

FrankBooth said:

An excellent piece by Melanie Phillips

A nice oxymoron.

You'll need to read it and critique it first.

Andy_JS said:

Did Leon get into his flat eventually?

I did, thankyou. And thankyou PB for all the good advice. I have now squirted WD40 into the lock!

stodge said:

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

Burgessian said:

Leon said:

The markets are right. Jenrick is favourite

Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?

This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that

Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone

Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.

Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.

I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.

Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.

Yes, exactly right

What's more, Labour are gonna gift the Tories the opportunity to do all this in one term, by being mega-woke, shite on the economy, probably even worse on the boats, probably as bad on migration, and generally very annoying and whiny

Starmer only got 24% on a 60% turnout. He is not popular, and he will grow much less popular as all this emerges. Amazingly, the Tories will have a real chance in 2028. But first - as you correctly identify - they have to strangle the Reform viper

Starmer got 34% on a 60% turnout. Sunak struggled home with 24%. As to popularity, he's lost a little but strangely not with 2024 Conservative voters who seem to like him - perhaps not the Devil Incaranate some on here would have us believe.

Sunak is a really nice bloke.

DougSeal said:

Leon said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.

Leon said:

The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad.

One of these takes is correct...

@Leon is more likely to be correct.

(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government

Because of stuff like THIS


"Labour scraps previous government’s ‘British workers’ social housing allocation plan"

https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/home/labour-scraps-previous-governments-british-workers-social-housing-allocation-plan-87937

Labour are going to become blisteringly unpopular very quickly. They are pushing a Woke, pro-more-migration agenda at the very moment when the country is firmly rowing the other way (even as we all recoil from these horrible riots)

How many times are we going to get this slightly amended version of the exactly same post from you?

Every time Labour does something truly annoying or Woke or inept or rubbish

So, approximately once an hour

This is what it means being in government. You get attacked constantly. I understand that lefties are not used to it

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.

Leon said:

The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad.

One of these takes is correct...

@Leon is more likely to be correct.

(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government

I can see what flying pigs would look like.

That doesn't mean they will come to pass.

Another keeper.

I've heard a lot of it - as I did the first time, before the election, when people laughed at my suggestion Starmer could be a one-term PM - and it's all stuff that people forget they said when it actually happens.

You'll be the same too.

Cicero said:

glw said:

JohnO said:

Jenrick turned up for a very quickly arranged Chinese dinner last night. Fluent presentation but the usual hard-right shtick to entice the membership. Hey that worked so well in 1997-2005. I berated him for his open support for Trump (well, what a surprise) to which he replied that the GOP is our "sister party".

No chance of his getting my vote but I fear he'll win. What then after almost 50 years party membership?

Next week it's drinkkies with Mel.

So not only does he support Trump, but he does so for a facile reason. If he is the best the Conservatives can come up with they really might be toast.

More to the point, when you go through the CVs of the new Lib Dem MPs, Lots of ex military, lots of really impressive academic, business, community and local credentials... these are the kinds of MPs who could easily have been conservative. Then you think well, it the Tories go down the Reform/Populist rabbit hole there is an actual conservative party to vote for- moderate decent, pragmatic, hard working, reasonable and sensible. Everything that the Tories used to claim to be.

At this point the Lib Dems only need to take 26 MPs in order to push the Tories into third place or 29 if you took the Tories and Reform together, and yes I know this is a mildly specious argument but under FPTP but there are 72 Lib Dem MPs and only 5 RefUK. However, Truss and now Jenrick saying they support Trump is absolutely lethal, totally lines them up with Farage in the Petin camp and could actually trigger a hard core of the Tories to defect since they completely loathe both Trump and Farage. Local Tories often get on well with local Lib Dems, and we could certainly see emergence of the Lib Dems as the centre right party that many Tories say they are or want to be (but are actually not and definitely would not be as allies of Trump).

I mentioned awhile ago that Chris Coghlan would be one to watch if he got elected, which he did. I was in his constituency until boundary changes moved me to Guildford. I voted for him to be the candidate over the candidate who stood last time who is a very capable guy and whom I feel very sorry for now, but Chris Coghlan's CV in almost unbelievable and he comes over in person the same. He is like a younger clone of Paddy Ashdown. What I don't know is can he now perform, now he is there.

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

An excellent piece by Melanie Phillips.

https://melaniephillips.substack.com/p/britains-multicultural-disaster

Braverman et all should learn how it is done.

Worst Radio 4 programme: The Moral Maze with Mel & the gang.

In violent agreement.
The BBC at its condescending worst in translating morality, events and society for we oiks mode. Guests are either people I’ve always disliked or people I’ve grown to dislike since appearing on MM (though I only hear the trailers nowadays).

LOL

What's great about this ticket is there's the candidate born in 1964 to appeal to young voters and the candidate born in 1964 to appeal to older voters.

BTW, the most Republican birth cohort in America is people born in 1964.

https://x.com/DanaHoule/status/1820867852792164652

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.

Leon said:

The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad.

One of these takes is correct...

@Leon is more likely to be correct.

(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government

I can see what flying pigs would look like.

That doesn't mean they will come to pass.

Another keeper.

I've heard a lot of it - as I did the first time, before the election, when people laughed at my suggestion Starmer could be a one-term PM - and it's all stuff that people forget they said when it actually happens.

You'll be the same too.

I assure you, I have a perfect memory.

The Tories could reverse some of this decline in one go. If they have a capable leader.

The idea they could return to power if led by a cheap crook and failure like Jenrick is ludicrous.

Remember, dissatisfaction with Starmer doesn't automatically mean that votes will head to the Tories.

Leon said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.

Leon said:

The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad.

One of these takes is correct...

@Leon is more likely to be correct.

(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government

Because of stuff like THIS


"Labour scraps previous government’s ‘British workers’ social housing allocation plan"

https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/home/labour-scraps-previous-governments-british-workers-social-housing-allocation-plan-87937

Labour are going to become blisteringly unpopular very quickly. They are pushing a Woke, pro-more-migration agenda at the very moment when the country is firmly rowing the other way (even as we all recoil from these horrible riots)

They seem to be totally tone-deaf. Starmer thinks that just because he's put his ming vase on the mantelpiece, with just a little bit of dust on it and a few coughs, he can now turn on the disco he can now do whatever the fuck he likes.

He's about to be shown just how wrong he can be.

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.

Leon said:

The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad.

One of these takes is correct...

@Leon is more likely to be correct.

(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government

I can see what flying pigs would look like.

That doesn't mean they will come to pass.

Another keeper.

I've heard a lot of it - as I did the first time, before the election, when people laughed at my suggestion Starmer could be a one-term PM - and it's all stuff that people forget they said when it actually happens.

You'll be the same too.

Yep - given the result in 2019 and the subsequent result in 2024 - it's possible that the same may happen in reverse and the Tories win a majority.

The problem for the Tories though is that they are currently subject to a pincer movement attacked by Labour in urban areas, Reform in the poorest areas and the Lib Dems in the richest areas.

And you can't create a manifesto of ideas that will please all 3 sets of potential voters.

Hence I don't see 2028 being a repeat of 2019 or even 2017 because I don't see them picking off all 3 sets of voters especially if they target reform rather than Labour switchers.

rcs1000 said:

Alanbrooke said:

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

Burgessian said:

Leon said:

The markets are right. Jenrick is favourite

Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?

This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that

Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone

Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.

Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.

I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.

Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.

Yes, exactly right

What's more, Labour are gonna gift the Tories the opportunity to do all this in one term, by being mega-woke, shite on the economy, probably even worse on the boats, probably as bad on migration, and generally very annoying and whiny

Starmer only got 24% on a 60% turnout. He is not popular, and he will grow much less popular as all this emerges. Amazingly, the Tories will have a real chance in 2028. But first - as you correctly identify - they have to strangle the Reform viper

They need a pact with Reform where Reform stand in those Labour seats the Tories have no chance of winning. The Tory purists are aghast but if Churchill could cut a deal with Stalin then hold your nose. They can then Blue wall until there hearts are content.

I think this is the worst of all worlds for the Conservative Party.

A pact allows them to be portrayed as being the same as Reform, while also allowing Reform to grow in importance. The Conservative Party depends on being the only party of the right: they need to destroy Reform.

They are fortunate in this in that Reform is led by Nigel Farage, and Nigel - like Ray Davies - falls out with everyone he works with. And also that Reform has, so far, shown little interest in getting their foot in the door in local government.

The next Conservative leader should tack right, and ensure there is no space for Reform. After Reform has been destroyed they can look to expand the tent.

I disagree

1. a pact might allow those areas which are badly represented to get better representation. FPTP cuts them off at the legs atm. If therer's a realistic hance of representation the forgotten places might get a voice. The Tories cant reach the parts Reform can.

2. A pact is a pact it's up to the two parties to work out an programme. The Tories happily knifed Clegg so let's not pretend they are "honourable". Pacts only stay together if there is something for both sides.

3. Farage is a tremendous shit stirrer and I mean that as a plus. He will do the dirty work Souihern Cons run from and give Labour a hard time. The Tories will have a hard enough time battling the LDs in the South if they are to get back on their feet.

4. As you point out Farage is no spring chicken. Post Nigel there may be a more rounded character who makes a longer term alliance easier. I use the Lab Coop model as an example.

5. The Tories are for the foreseeable future in no shape to destroy Reform. They should forget about it. They should worry about the 2.8 million natural conservatives who sit at home ( Im one ) because the party has no conservatives values or vision. get them back voting and that's a lot of votes. In the mean tinme they have the LDs stealing their southern seats and labour as their opponent. A war on two fronts is bad, opening up a third is not a good idea.

6. I dont think the Conservatives should tack right. They should just try being conservatives again. They need a moderate skill leader who can hold a party together. The so called modernisers became addicted with "elections are won in the centre". This is bollocks. The correct statement is "elections are won in the centre if you keep your party wings on board"
You have to bring all the elements with you and simply jumping to the right wont fix their problem. They need a bit of red meat for all their activists and a vision for where they are going to hold it together.

So if they want to be out of power for quite some time do what they are doing. If they want to hold HMG to account and win an election eat some crow and cut a deal. A three front war is a mugs game.

Mexicanpete said:

Scott_xP said:

I would like Jenrick to win

Only because you want to see an end of the Conservative Party.

Might just be Betfair book.
TBH, that's the only thing about the contest which us sightly interesting.

More good news for Jenrick

@krishgm
Deputy PM @AngelaRayner criticises Tory leadership candidate @RobertJenrick over the racist riots saying ""People like Robert Jenrick have been stirring up some of the problems that we've seen in our communities ...Actually, what we want to see is communities coming together, and the vast majority of the public want to see that."

eek said:

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.

Leon said:

The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad.

One of these takes is correct...

@Leon is more likely to be correct.

(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government

I can see what flying pigs would look like.

That doesn't mean they will come to pass.

Another keeper.

I've heard a lot of it - as I did the first time, before the election, when people laughed at my suggestion Starmer could be a one-term PM - and it's all stuff that people forget they said when it actually happens.

You'll be the same too.

Yep - given the result in 2019 and the subsequent result in 2024 - it's possible that the same may happen in reverse and the Tories win a majority.

The problem for the Tories though is that they are currently subject to a pincer movement attacked by Labour in urban areas, Reform in the poorest areas and the Lib Dems in the richest areas.

And you can't create a manifesto of ideas that will please all 3 sets of potential voters.

Hence I don't see 2028 being a repeat of 2019 or even 2017 because I don't see them picking off all 3 sets of voters especially if they target reform rather than Labour switchers.

Perhaps social media and the resulting polarisation of the country has done for the Tories. We have become a nation of small tents.

Flatlander said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

Did Leon get into his flat eventually?

I did, thankyou. And thankyou PB for all the good advice. I have now squirted WD40 into the lock!

I always use graphite (soft pencil will do) on locks as oil tends to gum them up. WD40 is unlikely to do any harm though.

If you are having to pull the key up or push it down to get it to open the mechanism is likely to be worn, so worth replacing before you have to get out the angle grinder. A 5 minute job for most locks.

Good advice, thanks. I shall do that!

And now, to the shops. My French roadtrip is done and it's back to Camden under grey cloud. Oh well

Leon said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.

Leon said:

The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad.

One of these takes is correct...

@Leon is more likely to be correct.

(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government

Because of stuff like THIS


"Labour scraps previous government’s ‘British workers’ social housing allocation plan"

https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/home/labour-scraps-previous-governments-british-workers-social-housing-allocation-plan-87937

Labour are going to become blisteringly unpopular very quickly. They are pushing a Woke, pro-more-migration agenda at the very moment when the country is firmly rowing the other way (even as we all recoil from these horrible riots)

With the labour party, there are a lot of contested subjects that they aren't even capable of rationally debating, due to the extent that 'woke discourse' has affected them. so they will just end up making bad political decisions. They may be able to sort out something like planning, but they have almost no chance at all of sorting out immigration.

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Burgessian said:

Leon said:

The markets are right. Jenrick is favourite

Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?

This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that

Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone

Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.

Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.

I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.

Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.

What's all this tacking to the centre stuff? Mushy compromises and splitting the difference?

Voters want pragmatism and solutions. Real leaders define and shape exactly where that is themselves.

The liberals at large really don't get this (not at all) because they protect core aspects of their theology as sacrosanct and are simply incapable of seeing it in any other way. This happened with free movement and I can see it happening with migration and asylum rights more broadly, and the HRA on top.

That's the opportunity for the Conservatives and to be seen as the new redefined centre ground, if they can get the tone and pitch right.

When I say "tack to the centre", what I mean is that the Conservatives need to win the voters who went Reform first. And once they've won those guys back and eliminated Reform, then they can look to win back voters who went LibDem or Labour.

But they do need to win back both sets of voters.

I should qualify my previous post re Canadian government warning Canadians not to travel to the UK, that their actual advise is 'visitors should exercise a high degree of caution in the country'

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

On one level it brings me great joy to see Jenrick saying these things. It makes it all the more certain that, even if the party were stupid eough to make him Leader, his chances of becoming PM are, to all intents and purposes, zero. Lets have lots more rope for him to hang himself with.

Leon said:

The Tories have no great choices, Jenrick seems the least bad.

One of these takes is correct...

@Leon is more likely to be correct.

(1) I think Jenrick is probably the candidate to beat at the moment and (2) I could easily see circumstances where he's pilloried constantly by the elites but still wins in 2028/2029 against a desperately unpopular Labour government

I can see what flying pigs would look like.

That doesn't mean they will come to pass.

Another keeper.

I've heard a lot of it - as I did the first time, before the election, when people laughed at my suggestion Starmer could be a one-term PM - and it's all stuff that people forget they said when it actually happens.

You'll be the same too.

Cassandra Royale.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I should qualify my previous post re Canadian government warning Canadians not to travel to the UK, that their actual advise is 'visitors should exercise a high degree of caution in the country'

"UK"

Outside England and Belfast (bits of), where's the problem?

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I should qualify my previous post re Canadian government warning Canadians not to travel to the UK, that their actual advise is 'visitors should exercise a high degree of caution in the country'

"UK"

Outside England and Belfast (bits of), where's the problem?

Perhaps the Canadian government only gives advice on a national level?

*ducks*

Scott_xP said:

Oh

@christinafinn8

Taoiseach Simon Harris says the era of self regulation by social media companies is over

He’s prepared to meet Elon Musk and other social media company execs to discuss Irish government plans for financial sanctions and personal liabilities for failing to remove harmful content

https://x.com/christinafinn8/status/1821149335028990404

I wonder how the Irish people will feel if Meta and Twitter simply shut down their services in Ireland? I see a surge in VPN usage coming soon.

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I should qualify my previous post re Canadian government warning Canadians not to travel to the UK, that their actual advise is 'visitors should exercise a high degree of caution in the country'

"UK"

Outside England and Belfast (bits of), where's the problem?

If someone is looking to travel to Scotland or Wales they may subsequently wish to visit other parts of the UK during the trip, so of course the advisory cannot be so specific.

DougSeal said:

Carnyx said:

DougSeal said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eek said:

williamglenn said:

There’s an interesting phenomenon on TikTok at the moment of liberal white women breaking down in tears because Tim Walz reminds them of their dads before political polarisation affected their relationships.

They blame this all on losing their dads to the MAGA movement, but if you listen to them, it’s clear that to a large extent they are the ones who have been radicalised and their dads have the same views they always had.

That's a demonstration of the misremembered idyllic childhood which is equally true of the many people who vote Reform and are rioting at the moment.

They misremember a "better" country / world that never quite existed which they wish to return to.

They accurately remember a better country in which small girls could dance to Taylor Swift without being slashed to ribbons by maniac knifemen, which, lest we forget, is what triggered this.

Yes, let’s go back to the 1960s, where kids were kidnapped from Manchester fairgrounds to be tortured to death and buried on the Moors. Good honest child murder by the right sort (wink wink) of murderer.

Can we please stop this rose tinted shite.

Mind, Orwell was complaining about the decline in the quality of the English murder in the 1940s ... always was the case.

British murder in this case, given Brady wasn't English

Not Orwell's fault though ...

Gods cycling is so boring to watch, on road or track.

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Burgessian said:

Leon said:

The markets are right. Jenrick is favourite

Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?

This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that

Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone

Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.

Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.

I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.

Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.

What's all this tacking to the centre stuff? Mushy compromises and splitting the difference?

Voters want pragmatism and solutions. Real leaders define and shape exactly where that is themselves.

The liberals at large really don't get this (not at all) because they protect core aspects of their theology as sacrosanct and are simply incapable of seeing it in any other way. This happened with free movement and I can see it happening with migration and asylum rights more broadly, and the HRA on top.

That's the opportunity for the Conservatives and to be seen as the new redefined centre ground, if they can get the tone and pitch right.

When I say "tack to the centre", what I mean is that the Conservatives need to win the voters who went Reform first. And once they've won those guys back and eliminated Reform, then they can look to win back voters who went LibDem or Labour.

But they do need to win back both sets of voters.

And, importantly, they need to do it in the order you prescribe. Because if they tack to the centre FIRST then Reform will surge and potentially devour them

Neutralising Reform is the initial task

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Burgessian said:

Leon said:

The markets are right. Jenrick is favourite

Let’s face it, none of the candidates is Augustus Caesar, they all have grave flaws. Badenoch is flimsy, Patel is widely disliked, Tugendhat is Who?

This guy probably has the fewest flaws. He’s young, articulate, not posh - self made. He looks vaguely prime ministerial and he’s quite right wing without being Suella, voters may like that

Also, it will drive the Corbynite anti-Semites mad if both the PM and the LOTO have “Zio” wives. So it’s worth doing for that alone

Unfortunately he's also an unelectable careerist dud who's very obviously manoeuvring himself to gain the votes of the remaining hard-line factionalists in the PCP in order to get into the final two.

Chasing Farage is a mug's game. The threat from the LibDems hoovering up the remaining Home Counties seats (backbone of the Tory party since Lord Salisbury) is far more existential.

I disagree: the next leader of the Conservative Party has two tasks. The first is neutralize Reform, to get them into the mid single digits opinion poll-wise, and ensuring they don't get a foothold in local government. Now, sure, this won't win them the next election, but before anything else, the Conservatives must make Reform irrelevant.

Once Reform has been vanquished and the Conservatives have become the only credible party of the right, then they can tack back again towards the centre.

What's all this tacking to the centre stuff? Mushy compromises and splitting the difference?

Voters want pragmatism and solutions. Real leaders define and shape exactly where that is themselves.

The liberals at large really don't get this (not at all) because they protect core aspects of their theology as sacrosanct and are simply incapable of seeing it in any other way. This happened with free movement and I can see it happening with migration and asylum rights more broadly, and the HRA on top.

That's the opportunity for the Conservatives and to be seen as the new redefined centre ground, if they can get the tone and pitch right.

When I say "tack to the centre", what I mean is that the Conservatives need to win the voters who went Reform first. And once they've won those guys back and eliminated Reform, then they can look to win back voters who went LibDem or Labour.

But they do need to win back both sets of voters.

There seems to be an unwritten assumption here that Reform voters will vote for the tory party - I just don't see it..

RobD said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I should qualify my previous post re Canadian government warning Canadians not to travel to the UK, that their actual advise is 'visitors should exercise a high degree of caution in the country'

"UK"

Outside England and Belfast (bits of), where's the problem?

Perhaps the Canadian government only gives advice on a national level?

*ducks*

The Canadian Government has updated its travel advise for the United Kingdom

https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/united-kingdom