Sir John Curtice updates the BBC forecast as Farage wins – politicalbetting.com

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  • rkrkrk
    rkrkrk Posts: 8,746
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    This does look like a majority built on sand, it must be said.

    Pressure is really on for Labour to deliver, particularly if Cons and Reform merge in some way.
  • BatteryCorrectHorse
    BatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    Beyond getting the winner right, the polls do seem to have over-estimated Labour's share quite significantly but oddly the seat predictions do gel with a higher percentage of the vote.

    Weird election.
  • Ghedebrav
    Ghedebrav Posts: 3,860
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Also on turnout, any indications if voting ID has made an impact?

    I suspect there are manifold reasons for low turnout.
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    The biggest subplot is the Reform surge

    Which didn’t happen
    Wait and see what the vote percentage is at the end. And even if they gain no more seats they certainly have more than a lot of people on here were predicting.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Sky News have Godalming
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited July 2024
    JC - Labour are continuing to progress towards their expected landslide victory, winning previously safe Tory seats across the country.

    Their gains are largely on the back of a dramatic 20-point decline in Conservative support.

    Labour's own vote is expected to be up by just under four points across the country, entirely as a result of a 20 point increase in support in Scotland.

    In Wales, the party's vote has actually fallen back by four points, while in England the party's vote is largely unchanged from 2019.

    ---

    So JC is saying 36% Labour, 24% Tory.
  • SeaShantyIrish2
    SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    londonpubman said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Johnny Mercer has lost.

    A real pity but no surprise
    Opinions on Johnny Mercer xMP are mixed. With mine (from afar) less positive than yours.

    However, will say that, in the House of Commons debate in February 2023 - not the more famous March debate (think I have that right) - Mercer gave a powerful speech in favor (in essence) of supporting Blair government re: imminent war with Iraq. Was in the gallery when he gave it. Disagreed with his position, but nevertheless thought his was the second-best speech of the debate.

    Best speaker was the Rev. Dr. Ian Paisley Sr. who also spoke in favor of going to war with Iraq if need be (which he thought it was, at least at the time). Paisley was a riveting speaker, very much a born preacher with a reasoned, righteous text, by his lights anyway.

    In the role of MP addressing the House, Paisley the Elder was simply superb, I would guess among the best, certainly in the Top Ten. Disagreed with him on the war, and other things, but he left me wanting to hear more of his Ulster rasp echoing in my ears. Speaking as a once-Catholic Fenian with woke libtard tendencies.
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    Amateur hour with these declarations
  • SteveS
    SteveS Posts: 203
    Hunt looks nervous
  • SMukesh
    SMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Con hold Harrow East
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Con hold Worthing East - Lab were 2/9
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    HYUFD said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Looks like Big Gav Robinson has held onto Belfast East for the DUP

    Not a great night for APNI if so.

    That is a great hold for the DUP if so
    Rumours that Alex Easton has gained North Down from Alliance.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,860
    Binface is on stage
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Godalming & Ash -> Con hold

    Con 23,293
    LD 22,402
    Ref 4,815
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    Great tip on Harrow East - well done to all who were on that.
  • londonpubman
    londonpubman Posts: 3,665
    Go Jeremy!!!
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    edited July 2024
    Hunt has won. And I have lost.
  • wooliedyed
    wooliedyed Posts: 12,801
    Harrow East Con hold
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    edited July 2024
    Con hold Harrow East - huge maj 11,860

    Swing from Lab to Con!
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Godalming and Ash

    LDs 22402
    Cons 23293


    Chanceller Jeremy Hunt holds on
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    edited July 2024
    Hunt still in the hunt!
  • Ghedebrav
    Ghedebrav Posts: 3,860
    tlg86 said:

    EDIT: guess he would give a losing speech if lost.

    Braverman devastated
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    NEW THREAD
  • Foxy
    Foxy Posts: 52,169
    Casino_Royale said:

    Con hold IoW East

    So I got both sides of the island right. Haven’t seen the figures yet

    Reform second, so Brothers did very poorly.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806

    NEW THREAD

  • RochdalePioneers
    RochdalePioneers Posts: 30,611
    Bollocks. Hunt
  • rkrkrk
    rkrkrk Posts: 8,746
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Con hold Worthing East - Lab were 2/9

    Oh no! That's a big disappointment
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Hunt still in the hunt!

    He's out of the hunt for being the Portillo moment. It looks like it's Liz Truss's for the taking.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Richmond & Northallerton -> Con hold

    Con 23,059
    Lab 10,874
    Ref 7,142
    Ind 222
    Ind 160
    Yorkshire 132
    Loony 99
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806

    NEW THREAD

  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Richmond and Northallerton

    Tories 23059
    Lab 10874
    LDs 4322
    Ref 7142

    PM Rishi Sunak holds his seat
  • londonpubman
    londonpubman Posts: 3,665
    Rishi wins his seat comfortably
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Booooo. Hunt holds on.
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