Sir John Curtice updates the BBC forecast as Farage wins – politicalbetting.com
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Alan Mak holds Havant by 92 votes
Con 12986
Lab 12894
Ref 9959
LD 3275
Grn 2861
WPB 211
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001275
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You have a typo, that should read "[it's all] Forking going Lib Dem"Cicero said:Dorking going Lib Fem
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Ah, Bromsgrove stayed Tory. I really did not believe the Lab gain in the Exit Poll.0
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Peston moment more likeGIN1138 said:
There's our Portillo moment?TheScreamingEagles said:Robert Peston has sources tell him that Truss will lose.
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Bromsgrove Con hold, Weston super Mare Lab gain0
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The exit poll/projections are looking a touch uncertain at the moment with all of these changes!
Makes it exciting at least!1 -
Yvette Cooper survives1
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Turnip for the books?TheScreamingEagles said:Robert Peston has sources tell him that Truss will lose.
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There’s a reasonable chance this won’t be an electoral issue in the UK in 2029 though.rkrkrk said:
That's mad... what has gone on there? Another Gaza backlash?MikeL said:
Goodness me - Streeting could easily have lost.wooliedyed said:Streeting hangs on by 500
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Caused me to switch over.Andy_JS said:BBC thinks it's more important to talk to Alex Salmond than show a declaration.
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Well at least SNP are destroyed. Brexit has ended independence for nowwilliamglenn said:BBC forecast has changed again:
Labour: 410 seats
Conservative: 144 seats
Liberal Democrat: 58 seats
Scottish National Party: 8 seats
Reform UK: 4 seats
Other 260 -
The away list.ydoethur said:
Turnip for the books?TheScreamingEagles said:Robert Peston has sources tell him that Truss will lose.
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Sheffield Hallam held by Labour.0
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Loledmundintokyo said:Tories got rid of the European Parliament elections, forcing the voters to deliver their European Parliament election result in a general election
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The Exit Poll has been brilliant except for Reform, who have underperformedwilliamglenn said:BBC forecast has changed again:
Labour: 410 seats
Conservative: 144 seats
Liberal Democrat: 58 seats
Scottish National Party: 8 seats
Reform UK: 4 seats
Other 260 -
Con hold IoW East0
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Labour have won Tamworth, their 302nd target! On a 24%+ swing...
https://x.com/gsoh31/status/18090664736603382292 -
SNP have held both Perth & Kinross and Aberdeen South. Labour have been winning other seats from 3rd place.MikeL said:
Con wins Berwick by 6,599 - suggests may do well in Scotland0 -
I hope somebody took my tip on Chris Philp to hang on!1
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Cons hold Sutton Coldfield0
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Lab gain Glasgow South from SNP and Lab gain Bury S and Wolverhampton W from Tories0
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Well, she fucked the entire country.williamglenn said:
The away list.ydoethur said:
Turnip for the books?TheScreamingEagles said:Robert Peston has sources tell him that Truss will lose.
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Con hold Broadland - maj 7190
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Looks like Big Gav Robinson has held onto Belfast East for the DUP
Not a great night for APNI if so.1 -
Johnny Mercer loses to Labour, couldn't happen to a nicer man1
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Looks like LAB might end up on 33%????0
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Based on what we have seen so far, Labour might actually want PR. It would possibly give them a more solid foundation for the next election than FPTP.2
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Bow and Stepney could be a labour loss now0
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Jezza on ITV.0
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New BBC forecast
LDs back up to 580 -
Sheffield Hallam:
Olivia (Lab) 23,875
Shaffaq (LD) 15,6860 -
So I got both sides of the island right. Haven’t seen the figures yetCasino_Royale said:Con hold IoW East
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BOOOOOO.HYUFD said:Cons hold Sutton Coldfield
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More Reform bollocks.Monksfield said:Yvette Cooper survives
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At what time does Sunak concede?0
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With a majority of 6,600!Monksfield said:Yvette Cooper survives
Wtf was that Reform tweet on about? Just ridiculous.1 -
Weren't the Lib Dems supposed to take this? Weird.El_Capitano said:Sheffield Hallam:
Olivia (Lab) 23,875
Shaffaq (LD) 15,6860 -
Lab GAIN Finchley2
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Darren McCaffrey
@darrenmccaffrey
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16m
🗳️✖️ LIB DEM GAIN Ely & East Cambridgeshire from CON
🔵Another cabinet minister CMS Sec Lucy Frazer loses1 -
After he has got his daily 6am Peloton session in ;-)JosiasJessop said:At what time does Sunak concede?
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Con hold Bexhill and Battle and Broadland and Fakenham and Stockton W and Isle of Wight E1
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Yvette Cooper strolls in, reports of her demise were greatly exaggerated0
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It's the one seat I might vote tactically against the Conservatives.williamglenn said:Liz Truss could be third
Nutcase.3 -
UK support for Palestinian statehood is probably quite a significant vote winner now.Ghedebrav said:
There’s a reasonable chance this won’t be an electoral issue in the UK in 2029 though.rkrkrk said:
That's mad... what has gone on there? Another Gaza backlash?MikeL said:
Goodness me - Streeting could easily have lost.wooliedyed said:Streeting hangs on by 500
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Gave up trying to get to sleep in the end, I've been watching events and it's all been quite absorbing. Looks like Rishi is going to end up somewhere around the 1906 beating rather even worse. But the SNP, gosh. Couldn't have happened to a nicer bunch of people.1
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Woah, that is white knuckle territorySunil_Prasannan said:Ilford North
Labour Wes Streeting 15,647 (33.4 -20.8)
Independent Leanne Mohamad 15,119 (32.2 +32.2)
Conservative Kaz Rizvi 9,619 (20.5 -16.2)
Reform UK Alex Wilson 3,621 (7.7 +5.9)
Green Rachel Collinson 1,794 (3.8 +2.5)
Liberal Democrat Fraser Coppin 1,088 (2.3 -1.7)1 -
Another exit poll failSunil_Prasannan said:Lab GAIN Finchley
Reform second, then Greens, then Labour
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With over half the seats counted we should get a projected national share of the vote soon.londonpubman said:Looks like LAB might end up on 33%????
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Rumours of a LD gain were greatly exaggerated.El_Capitano said:Sheffield Hallam:
Olivia (Lab) 23,875
Shaffaq (LD) 15,6860 -
Didn't realise you'd officially tipped it, but I certainly copied it, thank you sir!KnightOut said:I hope somebody took my tip on Chris Philp to hang on!
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And win 200 seat majority. Time to end fptplondonpubman said:Looks like LAB might end up on 33%????
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Worth remembering this is only the second election in the age of universal suffrage where a government with a double digit majority has conceded a double digit (or triple digit) majority to the opposition.
It really is a strange election.2 -
BBC focuses on Farage in its leading website headline.
FFS. When will this stop?0 -
It's not as simple as that. A block vote doesn't mean all Muslims, it also frames the anti Labour focus for other leftists and the right should they choose to do so.IanB2 said:
He must have lost pretty much every Muslim voter in his seatMikeL said:
Goodness me - Streeting could easily have lost.wooliedyed said:Streeting hangs on by 500
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Wolverhampton West, chunky odds on bet.0
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Labour gain Gillingham and Rainham and York Outer4
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This does look like a majority built on sand, it must be said.0
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The exit poll forecasting LD gains from Lab was always just dumbAndy_JS said:
Rumours of a LD gain were greatly exaggerated.El_Capitano said:Sheffield Hallam:
Olivia (Lab) 23,875
Shaffaq (LD) 15,6860 -
Cannock Chase often has the biggest swing in the country. It did in 2010 if I remember correctly.
The reason? It's full of white van man/woman types of voters.0 -
After his sandwiches.JosiasJessop said:At what time does Sunak concede?
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End billionaires says Jezza. Probably not going to win you Hexham.0
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I bet it is because it gets them clicks (like Trump does for US media).rottenborough said:BBC focuses on Farage in its leading website headline.
FFS. When will this stop?2 -
Might well not the be the last.ydoethur said:Worth remembering this is only the second election in the age of universal suffrage where a government with a double digit majority has conceded a double digit (or triple digit) majority to the opposition.
It really is a strange election.
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Also a lot of fake stuff going round on social media about Wes Streeting as well - deepfake-type videos, I believe. It should probably be looked into more deeply.Monksfield said:
Woah, that is white knuckle territorySunil_Prasannan said:Ilford North
Labour Wes Streeting 15,647 (33.4 -20.8)
Independent Leanne Mohamad 15,119 (32.2 +32.2)
Conservative Kaz Rizvi 9,619 (20.5 -16.2)
Reform UK Alex Wilson 3,621 (7.7 +5.9)
Green Rachel Collinson 1,794 (3.8 +2.5)
Liberal Democrat Fraser Coppin 1,088 (2.3 -1.7)2 -
That was obviously nonsense, predicting a LD win in Finchley.IanB2 said:
Another exit poll failSunil_Prasannan said:Lab GAIN Finchley
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It's designed to average out nationwide, not forecast individual seats precisely.IanB2 said:
Another exit poll failSunil_Prasannan said:Lab GAIN Finchley
That said, some of the 99%+ stuff didn't exactly manage expectations.1 -
Broadland and Fakenham Con Hold, as tipped by me
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Wolverhampton West a Labour gain. Biggest odds on bet ! Was a touch worried it'd get Gazaed.0
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Thing is, in 2019 the narrative was that Boris/Dom had made a new alignment and Labour were in the hole for good.BatteryCorrectHorse said:This does look like a majority built on sand, it must be said.
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It is however much better to have control of the ball....you can effect change, while all your opponents can do is complain. It why I never subscribe to the "its a good election to lose".BatteryCorrectHorse said:This does look like a majority built on sand, it must be said.
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Declarations I would have loved to see tonight are the likes of Bristol Central, Leicester East, Leicester South, Sheffield Hallam. I haven't seen any of them so far, not sure if any channel did show them.2
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The key takeaway of the night is that Labour’s ming vase strategy might have been perfect for 2024, but they need to do the exact opposite in 2029.
Their electoral fortunes in 2029 should largely be determined by if they grow the economy.2 -
Perhaps. But it's a substantial majority and if regular politics resume then it could take a while to overturn.BatteryCorrectHorse said:This does look like a majority built on sand, it must be said.
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The biggest subplot is the Reform surge1
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Stockton West May end up the sole NE seat for Con0
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Gee thanks.Andy_JS said:Cannock Chase often has the biggest swing in the country. It did in 2010 if I remember correctly.
The reason? It's full of white van man/woman types of voters.
But actually it was quite close this time. Possibly because Amanda Milling is generally inoffensive and the Labour candidate came across as an arrogant prick, but even so.
It also retains its record of only once not voting for the winning party in the last 55 years (1992).0 -
Green - Bristol - 10K majority.
Wow.3 -
16 and 17 year olds will be voting. Will they have introduced PR?PedestrianRock said:The key takeaway of the night is that Labour’s ming vase strategy might have been perfect for 2024, but they need to do the exact opposite in 2029.
Their electoral fortunes in 2029 should largely be determined by if they grow the economy.1 -
Alliance have gained Jeffrey Donaldson's old seat in Lagan Valley.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/N050000094 -
Also on turnout, any indications if voting ID has made an impact?0
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This was a kick tories in face election.PedestrianRock said:The key takeaway of the night is that Labour’s ming vase strategy might have been perfect for 2024, but they need to do the exact opposite in 2029.
Their electoral fortunes in 2029 should largely be determined by if they grow the economy.
2029 may well be the kick labour in the face election.
I'm pretty optimistic cause either labour sort things out or I can kick them in the face. What's not to like?1 -
This is the tricky part. This isn't 1997. We haven't had good solid continuous growth for 20 years now.PedestrianRock said:The key takeaway of the night is that Labour’s ming vase strategy might have been perfect for 2024, but they need to do the exact opposite in 2029.
Their electoral fortunes in 2029 should largely be determined by if they grow the economy.0 -
Tories drifting out on the 150-199 seat band again, now at 9. Could be value again.1
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Indeed. It's very much a freak result. +400 seats with maybe 35% of the vote and turnout at or even under 60%.BatteryCorrectHorse said:This does look like a majority built on sand, it must be said.
It's a very, very odd election and I can't see it being replicated in 2029.0 -
With this majority and so much volatility in the electorate? No.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
16 and 17 year olds will be voting. Will they have introduced PR?PedestrianRock said:The key takeaway of the night is that Labour’s ming vase strategy might have been perfect for 2024, but they need to do the exact opposite in 2029.
Their electoral fortunes in 2029 should largely be determined by if they grow the economy.0 -
Really quite cross about Bristol (as a green), but also about the fascinating Leicester seats as well, all ignored for the Reform/media soggy biscuit.Andy_JS said:Declarations I would have loved to see tonight are the likes of Bristol Central, Leicester East, Leicester South, Sheffield Hallam. I haven't seen any of them so far, not sure if any channel did show them.
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Sorcha. She's got a bit of star quality.Andy_JS said:Alliance have gained Jeffrey Donaldson's old seat in Lagan Valley.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/N050000092 -
Is it the subplot?Leon said:The biggest subplot is the Reform surge
I suspect the BBC are going to bang on about all weekend and interview Farage and Tice once an hour for the next three days.0 -
IoW split Lab / Con0
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Lots of tactical voting and very, very, smart seat winning. An unofficial Lab-LibDem pincer movement.GIN1138 said:
Indeed. It's very much a freak result. +400 seats with maybe 35% of the vote and turnout at or even under 60%.BatteryCorrectHorse said:This does look like a majority built on sand, it must be said.
It's a very, very odd election and I can't see it being replicated in 2029.0 -
Hunt’s declaration…Hunt wins
And Sunak’s…Con 23,000 Lab 10,800 Ref 7,100. What nonsense about it being marginal2 -
Labour will never introduce PR. Nor the Tories. Just look how it shuts out rivals to left and right.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
16 and 17 year olds will be voting. Will they have introduced PR?PedestrianRock said:The key takeaway of the night is that Labour’s ming vase strategy might have been perfect for 2024, but they need to do the exact opposite in 2029.
Their electoral fortunes in 2029 should largely be determined by if they grow the economy.0 -
Dunstable & Leighton Buzzard -> Lab gain
Lab 14976
Con 14309
Ref 8071
LD 6497
Grn 2115
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E140012060 -
Overall it's not done at all badly - and, given the huge complicating effect of Reform, it's probably not a surprise that it hasn't been even more accurate.Casino_Royale said:
It's designed to average out nationwide, not forecast individual seats precisely.IanB2 said:
Another exit poll failSunil_Prasannan said:Lab GAIN Finchley
That said, some of the 99%+ stuff didn't exactly manage expectations.1 -
Mansfield returns to Labour. Bye to Ben Bradley…..0
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EDIT: guess he would give a losing speech if lost.0
