Labour win Rochdale with 13,000 votes. It's a long way from the days when a couple of candidates with twenty something thousand votes were the norm in those results.
The swings in some of these constituency votes are bigger than the exceptional by elections that happen every Parliament or so...incredible...on an election night, on an election night...
Little wonder the MRP polls have been all over the place
Everything we’ve seen suggests the exit poll is underestimating the scale of Labour and Liberal Democrat gains and electoral efficiency, and overestimating Reform and the Conservatives
Rory Stewart and I are both sceptical about the exit poll.
I do wonder if ironically it will be a miss but almost contrary to 1992 in that it will be significantly worse for the Tories.
Not much sign of that. Exit poll holding up for the Tories
And also for the LDs. People are missing the point that the exit poll has them dramatically gaining, so when they see a surprise win they go "Oooh: overperforming". But they're not
Everything we’ve seen suggests the exit poll is underestimating the scale of Labour and Liberal Democrat gains and electoral efficiency, and overestimating Reform and the Conservatives
Is this the first exit poll where they have predicted seat by seat? Can't recall it before. I suspect they may be right (more or less) at the macro level - which, in a sense, is what matters. But interesting how badly it is performing at the local level.
Everything we’ve seen suggests the exit poll is underestimating the scale of Labour and Liberal Democrat gains and electoral efficiency, and overestimating Reform and the Conservatives
Everything we’ve seen suggests the exit poll is underestimating the scale of Labour and Liberal Democrat gains and electoral efficiency, and overestimating Reform and the Conservatives
I agree about Reform, not sure about Tories. They're holding some seats like Broxbourne which the exit poll said they would lose.
Oh, I missed that the exit poll had Broxbourne as a Tory loss. What's happening is that people are seeing just how badly the Tories are doing and assuming that the exit poll is wrong. No, the exit poll says the Tories are going to do really badly.
Is this the first exit poll where they have predicted seat by seat? Can't recall it before. I suspect they may be right (more or less) at the macro level - which, in a sense, is what matters. But interesting how badly it is performing at the local level.
No there were seat predictions previously. Because I recall it had Stalybridge & Hyde going blue last time, and I was busy hunting out Paddy Ashdown's hat.
"Well, put it this way, I feel very low in myself. I can't see much in the future, and I feel that any second something terrible is going to happen to me." [slumps into Beans-on-Naan]
Comments
JUST FUCKING REJOICE AT THAT NEWS!!!
THank you Paul Waugh.
Not.
Lib Dems saying they've taken Henley: Boris Johnson and Michael Heseltine's old area. It is no. 33 on Lib Dem target list.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/W07000106
https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2414
Kilmarnock and Loudon
SNP 13936
Cons 3527
Grns 1237
Labour 19057
Ind 401
Ref 3472
LDs 850
Labour GAIN from SNP
Little wonder the MRP polls have been all over the place
I do wonder if ironically it will be a miss but almost contrary to 1992 in that it will be significantly worse for the Tories.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001176
Sam Freedman
@Samfr
·
1m
Kinnock chuckling away at Galloway losing is the highlight of the evening so far.
Tory share drops by 16%
Chris Webb (Lab) 16,916 (48.08%)
Mark Butcher (Reform) 10,068 (28.62%)
Zak Khan (C) 5,504 (15.65%)
https://x.com/stephenkb/status/1809037323213975688
I agree with Stephen Bush.
LD 25870
Con 8,635
Lab 6,561
Ref 4,787
Grn 3009
Res 1,177
Workers 395
Loony 230
(Happy to be corrected if this is bullshit, BTW)
George Galloway also couldn’t bring himself to face the count.
But Reform suggests Labour may have some extra seats, so I am officially plopping some money on Labour beating Tony's 1997 result
Con 35, Lab 32
But I'm just a drunk idiot - not the site drunk idiot
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001306
[slumps into Beans-on-Naan]