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Records are tumbling during the Sunakpocalypse – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Nick Timothy is in in West Suffolk.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 52,980
    Hinkley & Bosworth! 🍾
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,057
    Ghedebrav said:

    Weird footage of Richard Holden aimlessly meandering around a school gymnasium.

    Looks like he's upset at being picked last for netball in the PE lesson again.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,257
    Selebian said:

    SMukesh said:

    Lost the Galloway bet!

    Won the Galloway bet! :smile:

    Glad I traded out the Corbyn lay, as it stands.

    Likely loser in Bristol C.

    Need the Cons to bring home 100+ seats for a good betting night.

    ETA: Oh, and I had Sunak to hold. Forgot about him!
    Smarkets settling these already (Rochdale). Well done them for speed.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,594
    Cicero said:

    Possible recount in Godalming

    Hunt wants his deposit back?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,927
    Heathener said:

    ITV forecast updated from Exit Poll: Labour majority 178

    Lab 414
    Con 130
    LD 60
    Ref 10
    SNP 11

    Do you have a link please?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    Labour gain Bolsover from Cons
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,581
    LD gain Chelmsford
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    edited July 5
    Starmer's seat declaring

    Lab 18,884
    Feinstein 7,312
    Grn 4,030
    Con 2,776
    Ref 2,371
    LD 2,236
    Ind 636
    Loony 162
    UKIP 75
    Soc Equ 61
    Ind 40
    Ind 19

    Labour were notionally on 29,537 before.

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2269
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,961
    edited July 5
    Andy_JS said:

    Nick Timothy is in in West Suffolk.

    Not that Nick Timothy? Oh gawd.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    KEEP CALMER AND :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534
    This'll be Farage's seventh or eight attempt at becoming an MP? He's a persistent bugger.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nick Timothy is in in West Suffolk.

    Not that Nick Timothy? Oh gawd.
    Yes that one
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,257
    rkrkrk said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage arriving at Clacton count on BBC surrounded by cameras

    BBC all over Farage - what a bloody surprise.
    It's interesting to me that all of the people in studios are major parties, they can't seem to get any guests from Reform or Greens.
    ITV had an interview in-studio with a Reform guy. I checked out the other channels...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    Labour gain Harlow
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,961
    edited July 5
    rkrkrk said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage arriving at Clacton count on BBC surrounded by cameras

    BBC all over Farage - what a bloody surprise.
    It's interesting to me that all of the people in studios are major parties, they can't seem to get any guests from Reform or Greens.
    TBH, they have been struggling for guests all night. Lots of representatives of parties that really aren't important (anymore) e.g. John McDonnell, Sayeeda Warsi, Kinnock, Mandelson.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 5,850
    Andy_JS said:

    EPG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pontypridd: Lab vote goes down from 21,254 to 16,225.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/W07000106
    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2414

    Great coverage of Labour vote falls. Any other parties losing votes?
    When a party is winning a 170 seat majority you don't expect it to be losing so many votes.
    The media have said it was a done deal so in seats where Labour are defending their vote is down.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    viewcode said:

    Heathener said:

    ITV forecast updated from Exit Poll: Labour majority 178

    Lab 414
    Con 130
    LD 60
    Ref 10
    SNP 11

    Do you have a link please?
    They just announced it on their show
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,876
    bondegezou said:

    What are the odds that Anderson and Farage fall out within 6 months?

    All the REF MPs will be like ferrets in a sack within a few months...
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,726
    tlg86 said:

    Cicero said:

    Possible recount in Godalming

    Noooo. That's a banker for me. Hunt must go!
    Hunt is well liked in his seat
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,016
    state_go_away said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ITV forecast based on the early results.

    Con 130

    Lab 414

    LD 60

    Ref 10

    SNP 11

    Don't know where these ref seats are. Basildon maybe. But that makes 4/5?
    Louth?
    Great Yarmouth
    Boston and Skegness

    Don't know if they will win them but they are 2 they are supposed to be likely winners in.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,927
    Heathener said:

    ITV forecast updated from Exit Poll: Labour majority 178

    Lab 414
    Con 130
    LD 60
    Ref 10
    SNP 11

    Do you have a link please?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,208
    Broxtowe - @NickPalmer old ground - back Lab
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    SKS re-elected!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Feinstein second in Holborn
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    rkrkrk said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage arriving at Clacton count on BBC surrounded by cameras

    BBC all over Farage - what a bloody surprise.
    It's interesting to me that all of the people in studios are major parties, they can't seem to get any guests from Reform or Greens.
    Beeb had that Mooch-lookin’ Bull guy for reform, and C4 had Widdicombe.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,581
    edited July 5
    Con hold Fylde - first Northern seat
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,961
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nick Timothy is in in West Suffolk.

    Not that Nick Timothy? Oh gawd.
    Yes that one
    We are supposed to be getting rid of the numpties.
  • FossFoss Posts: 877
    Selebian said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage arriving at Clacton count on BBC surrounded by cameras

    BBC all over Farage - what a bloody surprise.
    It's interesting to me that all of the people in studios are major parties, they can't seem to get any guests from Reform or Greens.
    ITV had an interview in-studio with a Reform guy. I checked out the other channels...
    The BBC had one before midnight.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,376
    Kevin Foster out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    Con hold Fylde
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,995
    state_go_away said:

    tlg86 said:

    Cicero said:

    Possible recount in Godalming

    Noooo. That's a banker for me. Hunt must go!
    Hunt is well liked in his seat
    I know, but even so. Ah well, all fun and games.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    Lab hold Walthamstow and Starmer's seat of Holborn and St Pancras
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,637
    7k Feinstein votes and second place behind Starmer is not negligible and you can see why Novara types were being wishful about the outcome.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    It's getting close to the point where we can probably say Labour will get less votes than 2019 (and therefore 2017) due to low turnout.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,326
    @RobDotHutton

    BBC coverage is redeemed by RicCam, a constant feed of coverage of Tory Chairman Ric Holden looking sad at his recount.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,753
    Turnout is shocking. Is this ID? apathy?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 52,980
    Have to love the next PM being on stage with two cartoon characters at the count. British democracy at its best.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534
    Monksfield said:

    Turnout is shocking. Is this ID? apathy?

    Foregone conclusion?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Lab gain Michael Howard's old seat in Folkestone.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,995
    Monksfield said:

    Turnout is shocking. Is this ID? apathy?

    Postal votes?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,581
    Con win Fylde by just 561
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Monksfield said:

    Turnout is shocking. Is this ID? apathy?

    Time of year as well.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534
    MikeL said:

    Con win Fylde by just 561

    Vital win. :smiley:
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,927
    Fifteen minutes to Bristol Central...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,772
    Monksfield said:

    Turnout is shocking. Is this ID? apathy?

    The inevitability of the result.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,376
    Amazing Starmer couldn't muster 20,000 votes lol
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,323
    RobD said:

    Monksfield said:

    Turnout is shocking. Is this ID? apathy?

    Foregone conclusion?
    Tory abstainers too.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,726
    Monksfield said:

    Turnout is shocking. Is this ID? apathy?

    more like a vote against the system and the career politicians it churns out
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,326
    @katierazz

    Carla Denyer, Green Party co-leader, arriving to cheers at Bristol Central count and sticking to the script that the party is “optimistic” about taking the seat from Labour. If the piles of ballot papers are anything to go by, she has won. Labour look devastated.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,277
    Massive drop in Starmer's votes.

    What's going on?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,938
    Holborn & St Pancras: easy win for Starmer, but vote share down 17%. Pro-Gaza independent Andrew Feinstein second on 19%. Greens third on 10%, another good result for them in the capital.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 874
    state_go_away said:

    tlg86 said:

    Cicero said:

    Possible recount in Godalming

    Noooo. That's a banker for me. Hunt must go!
    Hunt is well liked in his seat
    So was Charles Kennedy.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,323
    Andy_JS said:

    It's getting close to the point where we can probably say Labour will get less votes than 2019 (and therefore 2017) due to low turnout.

    Fewer!
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Massive drop in Starmer's votes.

    What's going on?

    Feinstein and apathy
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,277
    Pulpstar said:

    Amazing Starmer couldn't muster 20,000 votes lol

    John Major once received 48,000 votes.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Andy_JS said:

    Lab gain Michael Howard's old seat in Folkestone.

    Labour wave in Kent.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,057
    rkrkrk said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage arriving at Clacton count on BBC surrounded by cameras

    BBC all over Farage - what a bloody surprise.
    It's interesting to me that all of the people in studios are major parties, they can't seem to get any guests from Reform or Greens.
    You mean they have relatively few representatives from parties that look to have won slightly less than 2% of MPs between them?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,961
    edited July 5
    RobD said:

    Monksfield said:

    Turnout is shocking. Is this ID? apathy?

    Foregone conclusion?
    1997 was a foregone conclusion and got 71%. 2005 was bad with similarly predictable outcome and only got 60%.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,938
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Massive drop in Starmer's votes.

    What's going on?

    Corbynite, pro-Gaza independent candidate
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    Ghedebrav said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage arriving at Clacton count on BBC surrounded by cameras

    BBC all over Farage - what a bloody surprise.
    It's interesting to me that all of the people in studios are major parties, they can't seem to get any guests from Reform or Greens.
    Beeb had that Mooch-lookin’ Bull guy for reform, and C4 had Widdicombe.
    Bull also appeared on SKY earlier,
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,753
    Carshalton LibDem Gain is more like it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    Labour gain Worcester
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    LDs GAIN Carshalton
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Turnout is appalling almost everywhere. Maybe it'll be less than 60% overall.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,966
    Cheltenham goes Lib Dem
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    EPG said:

    7k Feinstein votes and second place behind Starmer is not negligible and you can see why Novara types were being wishful about the outcome.

    They were still massively overselling it, though. Shocked, shocked I tell you that Novara were bullshitting.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 874
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Massive drop in Starmer's votes.

    What's going on?

    Labour's vote is becoming more efficient.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    Pulpstar said:

    Kevin Foster out.

    Pity, he was a good MP and university contemporary of mine
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Disgraceful how much the far left hate having a Labour government.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    Epping Con hold
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    bondegezou said:

    Holborn & St Pancras: easy win for Starmer, but vote share down 17%. Pro-Gaza independent Andrew Feinstein second on 19%. Greens third on 10%, another good result for them in the capital.

    That's not great for Starmer...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,574
    Andy_JS said:

    Turnout is appalling almost everywhere. Maybe it'll be less than 60% overall.

    looks like it. Not brisk at all.

  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,601
    CON hold Epping Forest! :smiley:
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,581
    Con hold Epping Forest!!!!!! HY!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,277
    HYUFD said:

    Labour gain Worcester

    How do you pronounce Worcester?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,941
    bondegezou said:

    What are the odds that Anderson and Farage fall out within 6 months?

    Ego meets serial defector. Couldn't happen to a nicer party.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534
    .
    londonpubman said:

    CON hold Epping Forest! :smiley:

    Praise be to @HYUFD
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,938
    bondegezou said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Massive drop in Starmer's votes.

    What's going on?

    Corbynite, pro-Gaza independent candidate
    Independent now, but served 7 years as an MP for the ANC, in South Africa.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    HYUFD said:

    Labour gain Worcester

    Worcester Woman has spoken!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    Cons hold Epping Forest
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,961
    edited July 5
    Turn out was way down in Starmer's seat. Usually 55-60k, was 38.5k.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,494
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Massive drop in Starmer's votes.

    What's going on?

    A very popular indy, taking 7,000
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    Labour hold Bermondsey and Old Southwark
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Bolsover back in Labour hands.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    LDs gain Cheltenham
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534
    HYUFD said:

    Cons hold Epping Forest

    Humblebrag.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,104
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage arriving at Clacton count on BBC surrounded by cameras

    BBC all over Farage - what a bloody surprise.
    It's interesting to me that all of the people in studios are major parties, they can't seem to get any guests from Reform or Greens.
    You mean they have relatively few representatives from parties that look to have won slightly less than 2% of MPs between them?
    But a lot of votes! Maybe 20% nationally?

    And it's quite a contrast with BBC essentially being FarageCam whenever it can.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,268
    Nick Timothy is elected with 34.3% of the vote. Five deposits saved in that seat.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    A lot of seats are declaring earlier than usual, probably because of a lower than expected turnout.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,494
    Rumours that IOW west is going Labour
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,753
    Cicero said:

    Cheltenham goes Lib Dem

    And Torbay.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,574
    bondegezou said:

    Holborn & St Pancras: easy win for Starmer, but vote share down 17%. Pro-Gaza independent Andrew Feinstein second on 19%. Greens third on 10%, another good result for them in the capital.

    Greens getting lots of votes in all sorts of places like Leicester West and Reading. The Gaza vote I think
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,277
    Alex Chalk loses, booooo
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,966
    HYUFD said:

    Cons hold Epping Forest

    Congratulations
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,594
    This Labour front bench is so underwhelming. I had assumed it would be a competence upgrade, but that’s not necessarily so is it?
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,593
    Ghedebrav said:

    Disgraceful how much the far left hate having a Labour government.

    People don't like being lied to.

    https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/keir-starmer-broken-promises-political-lying-dishonest/
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,164
    edited July 5
    Missed Barnsley South Labour victory. It wasn't the disownment then.

    Yvette should be OK?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,927
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour gain Worcester

    How do you pronounce Worcester?
    Chumley
This discussion has been closed.