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Records are tumbling during the Sunakpocalypse – politicalbetting.com

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  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 794
    Andy_JS said:

    Turnout is appalling almost everywhere. Maybe it'll be less than 60% overall.

    I'd love to understand the anecdotal reports. My place was DEFINITELY busy (and the staff confirmed it). And we're a ludicrously safe seat (although my little bit of it used to be in Richard Holden's previous constituency which was split into three iirc, and only my bit joined North Durham).
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,651
    148grss said:

    bondegezou said:

    Holborn & St Pancras: easy win for Starmer, but vote share down 17%. Pro-Gaza independent Andrew Feinstein second on 19%. Greens third on 10%, another good result for them in the capital.

    That's not great for Starmer...
    It's the cost of entry to those few hundred seats where normal people are leery of unconditional support for an Islamic dictatorship.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    LDs GAIN Carshalton

    That’s more like it. Well done Bobby
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    The BBC have a dedicated election results channel if you are tired of pundits and endless talking:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/l0056pll/election-2024-election-data-live
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    Tories held their former stronghold of Fylde by just 561 votes.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001242
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Tonight is payback for 2015.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,290
    Lab gain Paisley and Renfrewshire South
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited July 5
    Grant Schnapps about to lose on the BBC. Another fantastic hat

    Lab 19,800 Con 16,000 Ref 6,300
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    biggles said:

    This Labour front bench is so underwhelming. I had assumed it would be a competence upgrade, but that’s not necessarily so is it?

    Bit hit and miss. I wonder what Keir will do in a year or two.

    I wonder about Creasey, for example.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,601
    ANOTHER HAT LADY!!!
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,660
    Another hat! More of this.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,575
    HYUFD said:

    Cons hold Epping Forest

    Congratulations!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,704
    Shapps live on Sky!
  • bobbobbobbob Posts: 100
    Dumbosaurus said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Turnout is appalling almost everywhere. Maybe it'll be less than 60% overall.

    I'd love to understand the anecdotal reports. My place was DEFINITELY busy (and the staff confirmed it). And we're a ludicrously safe seat (although my little bit of it used to be in Richard Holden's previous constituency which was split into three iirc, and only my bit joined North Durham).
    ID checking slowing things down?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    biggles said:

    This Labour front bench is so underwhelming. I had assumed it would be a competence upgrade, but that’s not necessarily so is it?

    Its not 1997 or 2010 level.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,651
    Welwyn HAT field alert.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Another marvellous hat presiding over the demise of Shapps
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,037
    I want to be a Returning Officer. I want the uniform.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    LostPassword said:

    Nick Timothy is elected with 34.3% of the vote. Five deposits saved in that seat.

    Uuurgh
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Cons hold Gosport
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    My turnout bet is looking *VERY* profitable. Tiny loss in LD seat numbers. Great win in Tunbridge Wells. Decent result on Reform vote share.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,456
    What actually is the difference between a returning officer and an acting returning officer? And why do the former all have daft hats and improbably posh voices?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,633
    Were you up for Michael Green?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    Welwyn Hatfield -> Lab gain

    Lab 19,877
    Con 16,078
    Grn 2,986
    LD 3,117
    Ref 6,397
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,160
    Apologies the spreadsheets are falling over a bit !
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    Cicero said:

    Cheltenham goes Lib Dem

    Anyone old enough to remember when we were all informed on here that Chalk would cling on yesterday afternoon? Still, he only lost by 7,210 (which actually isn't terrible but definitely isn't close).
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 141
    Pearly Queen at Welwyn
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Morning. 2.55am alarm sounded and I now have to decide whether to start on the coffee or resume the Old Rosie. Maybe wait for the first Oxfordshire declaration before deciding...
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,281
    Northumberland lost the fastest count and have now lost the hat contest to Welwyn- Hatfield.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,059
    Gravitation said:

    The BBC have a dedicated election results channel if you are tired of pundits and endless talking:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/l0056pll/election-2024-election-data-live

    I love it! Very soothing! Thank you.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,704
    SHAPPS OUT!

    19k to 16k
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Bye bye Shappsy
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Shaps' returning officer looks like a Town Crier.

    Oyez! Oyez! Bye bye Shaps!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Welwyn Hatfield

    Lab 19877
    Cons 16078
    Ref 6397
    LDs 3117
    Greens 2986

    Labour gain from Tories, Defence Sec Grant Shapps loses his seat and will not be a leadership contender
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    We've had 3 Scottish seats, 3 SNP losses to Lab - 4th, 11th, and 16th safest all gone.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    Shapps gone.

    No more defending the indefensible on the morning round
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Tactical voting at play.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    Flatlander said:

    Another hat! More of this.

    The hats! It’s been planned, surely.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,261
    Shapps thought he was going to stand for leader 😂
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    Why would turn-out be down 30%+ in Starmer's seat. Have they redrawn it or something?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,284
    Quite the hat for the returning officer in Welwyn Hatfield. Shapps out
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,720
    biggles said:

    I want to be a Returning Officer. I want the uniform.

    They're mostly Acting Returning Officers, aren't they? So actors paid to do the role and they love dressing up? :wink:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    Foxy said:

    Shapps gone.

    No more defending the indefensible on the morning round

    A job for someone in the Labour front bench now.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,808
    Grant Shapps loses Welwyn GC
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,575
    Shapps not really Portillo.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,037
    Tory gain in Leicester East on the BBC?! Is that the Vaz seat?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Someone run that Leicester East result past me
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,756
    Con gain Leicester NE lol
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Leicester!!
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 141
    A Con gain
  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 182
    Morning. Just woke up after my nap. What have I missed? What’s the reform percentage looking like?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,704
    CON GAIN LEICESTER EAST FROM LAB!!!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    Ah, excellent.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,704
    IDS WINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,043
    AlsoLei said:

    What actually is the difference between a returning officer and an acting returning officer? And why do the former all have daft hats and improbably posh voices?

    According to Reform UK, acting returning officers are employed by Channel 4 to discredit them.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    IDS wins
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited July 5
    Chingford - IDS 17,200 Labour 12,500 Ref 3,600 Shaheen 12,400

    IDS wins - one of my bets pays off

    Shaheen wins it for him
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,281
    IDS big win.

    Leadership contender ;)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    edited July 5
    Chingford & Woodford Green -> Con hold — IDS survives due to split vote

    Con 18---
    Lab 12,524
    Ind (Shaheen) 12,445
    Ref 3,653
    Grn 1,334
    LD 1,275
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,507
    Conservative Gain?

    Leicester East
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Go IDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Back as leader again?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    IDS is back
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    This looks like an anti Tory election rather than a pro Labour election...considering that polling suggests almost half of Labour voters only voted Labour to kick out the Tories, this government is not going to be popular...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited July 5
    Calling Foxy.....your local Leicester knowledge is required this time.....
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited July 5
    IDS holds on.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    con GAIN leicester east
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,575
    Leicester East - Con gain from Lab!!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    Looking at the current vote counts it does look like the exit poll may have underestimated Lib Dem vote share.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    Well done Faiza you absolute prat.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,808
    IanB2 said:

    Chingford - IDS 17,200 Labour 12,500 Ref 3,600 Shaheen 12,400

    IDS wins - one of my bets pays off

    Shaheen the Splitter :lol:
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    MikeL said:

    CON GAIN LEICESTER EAST FROM LAB!!!

    That’s the Vaz weirdness surely?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    What a wonderfully bonkers set of results. Congrats to the Conservative candidate in Leicester East.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    wooliedyed said:

    IDS is back

    And he's turning up the volume?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    IDS survives because they binned Shaheen. Idiots.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    IDS sneaks back, Starmer can afford to lose a few but didn't need to be that way.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Well done Faiza you absolute prat.

    The gong is in the post.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Chingford

    Cons 17281
    Lab 12524

    IDS holds thanks to Shaheen taking 11,000 votes in part as an Independent
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Con gain Leicester east!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,261
    IDS back lol!
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    IDS fortunate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    HYUFD said:

    Cons hold Epping Forest

    Tory share fell by a massive 21%
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    wooliedyed said:

    IDS is back

    Quiet batty people turning up the volume....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited July 5
    Brentwood and Ongar Cons hold
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,756
    IDS holds on. That must be the win of the election.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    IDS survives!
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Right I think I’m going to bed unless Jeremy Hunt is up soon.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,343
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Conservative Gain?

    Leicester East

    Hopefully, my bet on Bob Blackman will pay off now.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    I've never seen anything like the mess in Chingford.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,059
    Selebian said:

    biggles said:

    I want to be a Returning Officer. I want the uniform.

    They're mostly Acting Returning Officers, aren't they? So actors paid to do the role and they love dressing up? :wink:
    No, they only become Returning Officer once the previous RO has transmitted to Congress that they are no longer interested under the Twenty Fifth Amendment. Until then, they are the Acting Returning Officer. There was a court case, Rex vs Gordon Brittas that eventually decided it.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Pro_Rata said:

    IDS big win.

    Leadership contender ;)

    Shssh!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,507
    Conservatives hold my constituency Grantham and Bourne
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    Tim_in_Ruislip said:

    con GAIN leicester east

    I should have placed a bet on that.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,651
    Monksfield said:

    Someone run that Leicester East result past me

    Two ex Labour MPs running as independents, and the local Conservative party has embraced Hindutva.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Labour gain Hexham!!!! FFS
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,077
    AlsoLei said:

    What actually is the difference between a returning officer and an acting returning officer? And why do the former all have daft hats and improbably posh voices?

    The official responsible for elections is usually the High Sherriff- the folks with the feathers. The person who actually does the work is usually the Chief Executive and is appointed Acting RO or Deputy, depending.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    Well done IDS.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,704
    What a 5 mins for Con on a disastrous night.

    Anything can happen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,660
    Leicester East gone Tory? Bonkers Gaza effect presumably.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    AlsoLei said:

    What actually is the difference between a returning officer and an acting returning officer? And why do the former all have daft hats and improbably posh voices?

    Returning officer is the lord mayor or whatever, while the acting does the actual work.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    SMukesh said:

    IDS holds on. That must be the win of the election.

    Some Con holds can very much put themselves down to a large slice of luck and stonking personal votes.
This discussion has been closed.