Rory Stewart and I are both sceptical about the exit poll.
I do wonder if ironically it will be a miss but almost contrary to 1992 in that it will be significantly worse for the Tories.
Not much sign of that. Exit poll holding up for the Tories
And also for the LDs. People are missing the point that the exit poll has them dramatically gaining, so when they see a surprise win they go "Oooh: overperforming". But they're not
(Happy to be corrected if this is bullshit, BTW)
If they won Skipton by the repoted percentages, then they're doing well in their targets.
Rory Stewart and I are both sceptical about the exit poll.
I do wonder if ironically it will be a miss but almost contrary to 1992 in that it will be significantly worse for the Tories.
Not much sign of that. Exit poll holding up for the Tories
And also for the LDs. People are missing the point that the exit poll has them dramatically gaining, so when they see a surprise win they go "Oooh: overperforming". But they're not
(Happy to be corrected if this is bullshit, BTW)
If they won Skipton by the repoted percentages, then they're doing well in their targets.
For all the talk about tactical efficiency on Lab/LD side, it also looks like there was a big tactical unwind toward the Greens. So far, in places where it didn't matter this time.
Rory Stewart and I are both sceptical about the exit poll.
I do wonder if ironically it will be a miss but almost contrary to 1992 in that it will be significantly worse for the Tories.
Not much sign of that. Exit poll holding up for the Tories
And also for the LDs. People are missing the point that the exit poll has them dramatically gaining, so when they see a surprise win they go "Oooh: overperforming". But they're not
(Happy to be corrected if this is bullshit, BTW)
It was my view, looking at the list of predicted gains - except that the Skipton gain came out of the blue. If there are others like that, they are overachieving
For all the talk about tactical efficiency on Lab/LD side, it also looks like there was a big tactical unwind toward the Greens. So far, in places where it didn't matter this time.
I think the point is that Labour have put no effort into their previously held seats. They have focused entirely on Cons / SNP / PC seats. All of their resources.
Golloway is a complete tosser who is happy to jump on whatever bandwagon is passing. But I am glad that Starmer hasn't forgotten those in Gaza and Israel and has confirmed that he will honour the ICC arrest warrants.
For all the talk about tactical efficiency on Lab/LD side, it also looks like there was a big tactical unwind toward the Greens. So far, in places where it didn't matter this time.
That’s not tactical unwind because it was never tactical in the first place. It’s free hit.
I think, if this were a close run thing between the Tories and Labour, you’d have seen Labour vote share in the mid to high 40s. This has been an election of free hits.
Rory Stewart and I are both sceptical about the exit poll.
I do wonder if ironically it will be a miss but almost contrary to 1992 in that it will be significantly worse for the Tories.
Not much sign of that. Exit poll holding up for the Tories
And also for the LDs. People are missing the point that the exit poll has them dramatically gaining, so when they see a surprise win they go "Oooh: overperforming". But they're not
(Happy to be corrected if this is bullshit, BTW)
It was my view, looking at the list of predicted gains - except that the Skipton gain came out of the blue. If there are others like that, they are overachieving
For the umpteenth time, that was a misreported result with the numbers for Harrogate. LDs have not and will not win Skipton.
Exit poll had that too close to call, Tories just ahead so again Curtice looks about right.
Barclay holding on means he is the first significant Cabinet Minister and Tory potential leadership contender to have held his seat
Yeah, I think Sir John's exit poll is being unfairly maligned lol.
I think it'll be pretty close, though Ref will probably be in single digit seats (though he did say at the start of the night take the Ref seat score with a pinch of salt)
Is this the first exit poll where they have predicted seat by seat? Can't recall it before. I suspect they may be right (more or less) at the macro level - which, in a sense, is what matters. But interesting how badly it is performing at the local level.
Which is what they all say, in the small print. They’re really national models with the seat data used as building blocks. They shouldn’t be seen as seat forecasts - the problem is that the local data is so sexy for both election enthusiasts and casual folk
For all the talk about tactical efficiency on Lab/LD side, it also looks like there was a big tactical unwind toward the Greens. So far, in places where it didn't matter this time.
I think the point is that Labour have put no effort into their previously held seats. They have focused entirely on Cons / SNP / PC seats. All of their resources.
Right, but the Greens are doing similarly well in Con held seats to the Lab held seats, so they've probably suffered the same phenomenon on each side.
We British do not do apocalyptical political events...it's very unBritish....we are more measured and all that...but tonight feels different to any other...
Labour may well struggle to get over 36%....but in this fragmented, unaffiliated party system, 36% is as much as you can possibly get...
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001434
Rochdale and Widnes not as bad, but in the 56-58% range.
Barclay holding on means he is the first significant Cabinet Minister and Tory potential leadership contender to have held his seat
Lab 32.8%
Galloway 29.2%
Ref 17.1%
Con 10.8%
LD 7.1%
Grn 3.1%
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001446
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001228
(Kilmarnock and Loudoun)
I think, if this were a close run thing between the Tories and Labour, you’d have seen Labour vote share in the mid to high 40s. This has been an election of free hits.
I think it'll be pretty close, though Ref will probably be in single digit seats (though he did say at the start of the night take the Ref seat score with a pinch of salt)
Lab GAIN Scunthorpe
Glad I traded out the Corbyn lay, as it stands.
Likely loser in Bristol C.
Need the Cons to bring home 100+ seats for a good betting night.
ETA: Oh, and I had Sunak to hold. Forgot about him!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001504
His campaign had a very slow start, but the past couple of weeks were full-on by-election style.
Labour worked it hard, but clearly wasn't enough.
ETA my bet on Reform winning no seats is obviously sunk after 30p Lee won.
Lab 414
Con 130
LD 60
Ref 10
SNP 11
Con 130
Lab 414
LD 60
Ref 10
SNP 11
Lab 414
Con 130
LD 60
Ref 10
SNP 11
CON holding up at 130.
Much as exit poll.
summer elections, missing postal votes, uninspiring campaign, foregone conclusion and voter ID not good for democracy
Lab 414
Cons 130
LDs 60
Ref 10
SNP 11
So v close to exit poll but Lab majority now of 178 so only fractionally below Blair's 179 majority in 1997 now
7 MPs now!
So Labour will end up pretty much where I said, I suspect around 420-430 when it's all done.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001546
Labour may well struggle to get over 36%....but in this fragmented, unaffiliated party system, 36% is as much as you can possibly get...
On the count floor, it's very much a two-horse race, between Hunt and Liberal Democrat Paul Follows.
One Lib Dem fears the Tories may have "edged it", another that it may be close enough for a recount.
These things may well even out across the night, but fascinating.