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Records are tumbling during the Sunakpocalypse – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited July 5 in General
Records are tumbling during the Sunakpocalypse – politicalbetting.com

Cannock Chase has now broken the record set by Telford 20 minutes earlier – *25.7* point Con to Lab swing. Wow. https://t.co/anTdH47P7f

Read the full story here

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Comments

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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,457
    First?
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    If I were a Tory, beyond saying "Labour have won on only 36% of the vote" (to be fair so has Novara), I would be more worried about how effective Labour has been at targeting their votes.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,247
    Chichester!!!
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    I backed Labour in Cannock Chase.
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    UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 864
    Second like Yvette Cooper? I doubt it!
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    Cannock Chase = the biggest ever drop in Cons party share apparently
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,602
    Chichester is in the "last won in 1923" cohort for Lib Dems.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,736
    I won my bet with @Leon!!!

    Tories appear to be outperforming the exit poll, is that 150-200 seat band value?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774


    Did the exit poll have it going Tory?

    No, a 91% chance for Reform.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,502
    Heathener said:

    Cannock Chase = the biggest ever drop in Cons party share apparently

    And again, more to Reform than Labour
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    Feels at this point Reform are damaging the Tories, less so Labour directly
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,502
    Lord Kinnock on BBC as Starmer arrives with his wife at his count
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,478
    Jonathan said:

    Chichester!!!

    Could it be that the Tories are wiped out of West Sussex?
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Cannock going Labour is massive.
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    Andy_JS said:

    In all modesty my spreadsheet is proving more accurate than the exit poll at the moment although I screwed up in Skipton & Ripon

    Link?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Labour have gained Rushcliffe.
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    Jonathan said:

    Chichester!!!

    Could it be that the Tories are wiped out of West Sussex?
    I said Chichester, Guildford, Winchester were all going Lib Dem months ago.
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    tlg86 said:

    I backed Labour in Cannock Chase.

    Fair play to you there.
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,739
    This looks to me like Lib Dems 80, Tories 80-100.

    Ofcourse , I could be wrong..

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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,229
    edited July 5

    If I were a Tory, beyond saying "Labour have won on only 36% of the vote" (to be fair so has Novara), I would be more worried about how effective Labour has been at targeting their votes.

    Labour haven't really targeted any votes.

    I think it is more the people targeting the Tories.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261
    Conservatives 2/18 so far on defence.
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    EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 67
    Up In Scotland Reform ahead of Con in all Glasgow seats. No wins of course but still.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915

    I think the Lib Dems will outperform the exit poll.

    Tories & Reform look like they are going to underperform versus the EP
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,022
    Andy_JS said:

    In all modesty my spreadsheet is proving more accurate than the exit poll at the moment although I screwed up in Skipton & Ripon being unduly influenced by MRPs showing Lab would be the challenger and not the LDs

    Andy you linked Harrogate and Knaresborough. Skipton is not yet in.
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,532
    Sandpit said:

    I won my bet with @Leon!!!

    Tories appear to be outperforming the exit poll, is that 150-200 seat band value?

    Absolutely no chance

    We are having some hideous results - could be nearer 100

    But you have already won a bet!
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,736

    Labour have gained Rushcliffe.

    Ken Clarke lost?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,249
    Redcar was fairly close, top 3:

    Lab 15663
    Con 12340
    Ref 7216

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001440
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Sandpit said:

    Labour have gained Rushcliffe.

    Ken Clarke lost?
    Ken Clarke retired in 2019/
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Andy_JS said:

    In all modesty my spreadsheet is proving more accurate than the exit poll at the moment although I screwed up in Skipton & Ripon being unduly influenced by MRPs showing Lab would be the challenger and not the LDs

    That’s a huge result for the LibDems - MRPs said Tory/Labour, all the tactical voting sites said vote Labour, the LDs started in third, yet won, decisively, and pushed Labour way way down into a distant third despite the polls and tactical recommendations.

    If the LibDem campaign has that traction in areas where they have traditionally been reasonably active and strong - there could be more surprises in the south.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,502
    Sandpit said:

    Labour have gained Rushcliffe.

    Ken Clarke lost?
    No, he is in the Lords
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1m
    Cannock Chase goes Labour. Again, how are the Tories getting 130 seats and 25% on these results?
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,034
    Just woken up - who has rhe best coverage? C4?
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    If I were a Tory, beyond saying "Labour have won on only 36% of the vote" (to be fair so has Novara), I would be more worried about how effective Labour has been at targeting their votes.

    Labour haven't really targeted any votes.

    I think it is more the people targeting the Tories.
    On the contrary, they absolutely have.
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930
    There's some funny stuff going on here. The exit poll might well turn out to be right on the macro level, but has LOTS of the detail wrong. RefUK sure to win Barnsley? Labour nailed on in Broxbourne? Tories fine in Chichester? RefUK no better than a toss up in Ashfield? All looks more interesting than expected.
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    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Con / Ref vote seems to be relatively inefficient - Ref didn't gain a seat the exit poll thought it would...
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308

    I think the Lib Dems will outperform the exit poll.

    Yes, I think I've lost on LD seat numbers.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    edited July 5
    There's a very different mood outside Rochdale Leisure Centre tonight as compared to four months ago when George Galloway won his seat in a by-election.

    Then, more than 200 of his supporters gathered and cheered outside - but not tonight.

    Last time around, Labour disowned its candidate Azhar Ali over comments he made about Gaza.

    This time Labour Party members at the count seem more relaxed about the outcome and a potential win for their candidate Paul Waugh - a former journalist.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn09xn9je7lt
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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,229

    Lab hold Bootle

    You could set up a script to post that on every General Election thread until the heat death of the Universe.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    rkrkrk said:

    Just woken up - who has rhe best coverage? C4?

    ITV.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,022
    SKIPTON AND RIPON HAS NOT DECLARED.
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    Jeremy Hunt to lose his seat shortly.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Labour have gained Rushcliffe.

    Ken Clarke lost?
    No, he is in the Lords
    Edwards
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,502
    edited July 5

    I think the Lib Dems will outperform the exit poll.

    Tories & Reform look like they are going to underperform versus the EP
    No, the exit poll had Broxbourne likely going Lab for instance, the Tories held it.

    Reform may not win quite as many seats as projected but they are already off the mark in Ashfield
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    My only bet is Keegan to lose in Chichester (and that’s a gentleman’s evens with a friend).
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,705

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1m
    Cannock Chase goes Labour. Again, how are the Tories getting 130 seats and 25% on these results?

    they are not - dont miss the opportunity to make BIG money
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @KevinASchofield

    Labour win Hartlepool with an 8,000 majority. Exit poll had that as a 91% Reform win.

    Seems like the 13 projected seats for Farage's party was a tad optimistic.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1m
    Cannock Chase goes Labour. Again, how are the Tories getting 130 seats and 25% on these results?

    That was a Labour gain in the exit poll.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Andy_JS said:

    Redcar was fairly close, top 3:

    Lab 15663
    Con 12340
    Ref 7216

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001440

    Simon Clarke should hold on that basis with no Reform
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,462
    HYUFD said:

    Lord Kinnock on BBC as Starmer arrives with his wife at his count

    I grew up watching Kinnock's conference speeches as a politically obsessed kid. "A Labour Council...". Lovely to hear his voice again.
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    I do wonder if in several hours we will see 130 as the best the Tories could have done
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,249

    There's some funny stuff going on here. The exit poll might well turn out to be right on the macro level, but has LOTS of the detail wrong. RefUK sure to win Barnsley? Labour nailed on in Broxbourne? Tories fine in Chichester? RefUK no better than a toss up in Ashfield? All looks more interesting than expected.

    Although the main point about the exit poll is the overall numbers, not individual seats, and they may still be right on that. In fact I'm expecting they will be within a few.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194

    Jonathan said:

    Chichester!!!

    Could it be that the Tories are wiped out of West Sussex?
    I said Chichester, Guildford, Winchester were all going Lib Dem months ago.
    Those were the easy ones. We need a southern rural seat where the LDs aren’t seen as in the running - like Hants E, Maidstone, Weald of Kent, etc
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    StereodogStereodog Posts: 485
    Someone on the previous thread mentioned Labour GAIN Carshalton. Is there any evidence for that as it was the Lib Dems’ top target.
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930

    Sandpit said:

    Labour have gained Rushcliffe.

    Ken Clarke lost?
    Ken Clarke retired in 2019/
    He essentially retired in about 1999 to be fair, although he did remain an MP for a couple more decades.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,602

    If I were a Tory, beyond saying "Labour have won on only 36% of the vote" (to be fair so has Novara), I would be more worried about how effective Labour has been at targeting their votes.

    Labour haven't really targeted any votes.

    I think it is more the people targeting the Tories.
    On the contrary, they absolutely have.
    Peston made the point that the narrative of Labour literally fighting an election against Corbyn was an intentional design of Starmer and team.
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    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Chichester!!!

    Could it be that the Tories are wiped out of West Sussex?
    I said Chichester, Guildford, Winchester were all going Lib Dem months ago.
    Those were the easy ones. We need a southern rural seat where the LDs aren’t seen as in the running - like Hants E, Maidstone, Weald of Kent, etc
    East Hants I did tip and said was worth a punt. It will be close.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,441
    Stereodog said:

    Someone on the previous thread mentioned Labour GAIN Carshalton. Is there any evidence for that as it was the Lib Dems’ top target.

    It was reported but a strange result
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,736
    HYUFD said:

    I think the Lib Dems will outperform the exit poll.

    Tories & Reform look like they are going to underperform versus the EP
    No, the exit poll had Broxbourne likely going Lab for instance, the Tories held it.

    Reform may not win quite as many seats as projected but they are already off the mark in Ashfield
    Sky just had a graphic that suggested the Tories were outperforming the EP.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Turnout is shit. 54% in Starmer's seat.
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    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,211
    it's going to be interesting to see which is closer to the actual result: the exit poll or the MRPs.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562
    HYUFD said:

    I think the Lib Dems will outperform the exit poll.

    Tories & Reform look like they are going to underperform versus the EP
    No, the exit poll had Broxbourne likely going Lab for instance, the Tories held it.

    Reform may not win quite as many seats as projected but they are already off the mark in Ashfield
    A lot of the commentariat are forgetting that the Shires are not in yet:
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,736
    First independent elected - Speaker holds his seat in Chorley.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,326

    This looks to me like Lib Dems 80, Tories 80-100.

    Ofcourse , I could be wrong..

    SPIN: libDem 60.5-63.5 https://www.sportingindex.com/sports/en-GB/spread-betting/politics/uk-politics/2024-general-election/spr/p2063103
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123
    Rushcliffe!!!
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    Sandpit said:

    I won my bet with @Leon!!!

    Tories appear to be outperforming the exit poll, is that 150-200 seat band value?

    I await the result of my bet with Leon. There was less to lose than in yours, let’s be honest. I am hoping I lose badly and will be happy to find that lunch.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562

    it's going to be interesting to see which is closer to the actual result: the exit poll or the MRPs.

    Neither. Andy will be.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,249
    edited July 5
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    My own seat’s count has ground to a halt as they worry about one box with a vote missing.

    Surely some voter who out it in their pocket and wandered off home.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,034
    Galloway loses looks like
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think the Lib Dems will outperform the exit poll.

    Tories & Reform look like they are going to underperform versus the EP
    No, the exit poll had Broxbourne likely going Lab for instance, the Tories held it.

    Reform may not win quite as many seats as projected but they are already off the mark in Ashfield
    Sky just had a graphic that suggested the Tories were outperforming the EP.
    They may be right but I wasn’t convinced that it understood what’s going on with Labour’s efficiency
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930
    Stereodog said:

    Someone on the previous thread mentioned Labour GAIN Carshalton. Is there any evidence for that as it was the Lib Dems’ top target.

    Sky apparently misnamed Cannock Chase (which is presumably just before it on alphabetical list). They won't have gained Carshalton.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    edited July 5
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think the Lib Dems will outperform the exit poll.

    Tories & Reform look like they are going to underperform versus the EP
    No, the exit poll had Broxbourne likely going Lab for instance, the Tories held it.

    Reform may not win quite as many seats as projected but they are already off the mark in Ashfield
    Sky just had a graphic that suggested the Tories were outperforming the EP.
    Not seeing that yet, ex possibly against Reform.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    Stereodog said:

    Someone on the previous thread mentioned Labour GAIN Carshalton. Is there any evidence for that as it was the Lib Dems’ top target.

    It is (was) a rare London Brexit seat, so it wouldn't surprise me if the LibDems didn't win it.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,736

    Turnout is shit. 54% in Starmer's seat.

    Yes, laying the turnout was the bet to make.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,736
    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    I won my bet with @Leon!!!

    Tories appear to be outperforming the exit poll, is that 150-200 seat band value?

    I await the result of my bet with Leon. There was less to lose than in yours, let’s be honest. I am hoping I lose badly and will be happy to find that lunch.
    What’s your bet?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,249
    edited July 5
    Rochdale incoming

    Lab 13,026
    Galloway 11,---
    Con 4,273
    LD 2,816
    Grn 1,212
    Ref 6,773
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Sandpit said:

    First independent elected - Speaker holds his seat in Chorley.

    Exit poll as others +1 - Corbyn?
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    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,234
    Blimey
    Adele Merson
    @adelemerson_
    ·
    1h
    Labour source says Aberdeen North race “very close” between SNP and Labour.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,502
    edited July 5
    biggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think the Lib Dems will outperform the exit poll.

    Tories & Reform look like they are going to underperform versus the EP
    No, the exit poll had Broxbourne likely going Lab for instance, the Tories held it.

    Reform may not win quite as many seats as projected but they are already off the mark in Ashfield
    A lot of the commentariat are forgetting that the Shires are not in yet:
    Yes, Reform vote will be lower there.

    So far on voteshare Labour on 43%, Tories 20.6%, Reform 19.8%, LDs 7.6%, Greens 6.6% however most results in so far from the North and Midlands and Wales

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/regions/E92000001

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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    2m
    Labour have gained Ken Clarke's old seat of Rushcliffe in the East Midlands.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,131
    7000 for Galloway not enough surely.
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    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,211
    edited July 5
    Jacob Rees Mogg in trouble. Oh, I hope so!
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    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Owen Jones reporting Corbyn has held on to his seat
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,532
    Cheerio George
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308

    Blimey
    Adele Merson
    @adelemerson_
    ·
    1h
    Labour source says Aberdeen North race “very close” between SNP and Labour.

    DAMN IT.

    I WANT A PB LibDem win in Aberdeen North.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,249
    You knew Galloway hadn't won when he wasn't on the stage.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,736
    Galloway out!
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    rcs1000 said:

    Stereodog said:

    Someone on the previous thread mentioned Labour GAIN Carshalton. Is there any evidence for that as it was the Lib Dems’ top target.

    It is (was) a rare London Brexit seat, so it wouldn't surprise me if the LibDems didn't win it.
    There were 650 votes in it last time, and when I went there last weekend to canvass I was sent over to Sutton and Cheam because Carshalton was in the bag. So no, not a Labour gain.

    And by the way if LD do win it, Bobby Dean is a star and future leader.
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    edited July 5
    Looks like Galloway has lost Rochdale
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    EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 67
    Galloway gone
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Galloway loses Rochdale to Lab
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    IanB2 said:

    My own seat’s count has ground to a halt as they worry about one box with a vote missing.

    Surely some voter who out it in their pocket and wandered off home.

    Perhaps a former member of the Canadian "Edible Ballot Society" which was group of Canuck anarchists who advocated eating rather than voting one's election ballot.

    IIRC they published a cookbook of favorite recipes.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,772
    Pro_Rata said:

    7000 for Galloway not enough surely.

    11000 but still not enough
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,139
    Yes. Galloway gone!
This discussion has been closed.