The first key result sees a 16.5% Con to Lab swing. – politicalbetting.com

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System Posts: 12,578
edited July 2024 in General
The first key result sees a 16.5% Con to Lab swing. – politicalbetting.com

Swindon South:? LAB: 48.4% (+8.2)? CON: 26.9% (-24.7)?? RFM: 13.8% (New)? GRN: 5.7% (+5.2)? LDM: 4.1% (-3.6)? IND: 1.1% (New)Labour GAIN from Conservative.

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Comments

  • BatteryCorrectHorse
    BatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    Survation bang on so far. But they had the Tories getting 60 seats.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,732
    Are the TV channels struggling to get people who are relevant on. John McDonnell and now Sayeeda Warsi.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Where are our declarations? My last hit is running low.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    rcs1000 said:

    First.

    (Sorry some other people!)

    Disgraceful behaviour!
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    It’s the get the Tories out election.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    edited July 2024
    I would like to apologize to @EScrymgeour, @CatMan, @tlg86 and others.

    No reason.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Labour's majority in Swindon South is bigger than 3 out of the 4 NE seats announced so far !!!
  • EPG
    EPG Posts: 6,739
    It's a terrrrrible night for the Lib Dems on these swings. Or maybe not.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    We've only had 5 declarations and they've missed 2 of them.
  • EScrymgeour
    EScrymgeour Posts: 142
    What time does Gurning Gullis get turfed?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Notice in all the seats declared so far the swing from Tories to Reform/BXP as was is bigger than the swing to Labour
  • Dadge
    Dadge Posts: 2,052
    If Ross is close to losing in Moray, the Scottish part of the exit poll needs flushing.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    That’s a by-election swing!
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Survation bang on so far. But they had the Tories getting 60 seats.

    MRP is erratic, they should have stuck to UNS
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    First.

    (Sorry some other people!)

    Disgraceful behaviour!
    I have no idea what you are talking about.
  • BatteryCorrectHorse
    BatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    Labour will get 420 or more seats IMHO.

    Any bets on beating Tony's landslide in 1997?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    HYUFD said:

    Notice in all the seats declared so far the swing from Tories to Reform/BXP as was is bigger than the swing to Labour

    What were you expecting from the expected vote shares ?
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    Jonathan said:

    It’s the get the Tories out election.

    Brexit Payback Day!
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    Dadge said:

    If Ross is close to losing in Moray, the Scottish part of the exit poll needs flushing.

    It immediately looked wrong.
  • Benpointer
    Benpointer Posts: 35,627
    Andy_JS said:

    We've only had 5 declarations and they've missed 2 of them.

    'They' being?
  • Cicero
    Cicero Posts: 3,622
    SNP Massacre in Glasgow.
  • FeersumEnjineeya
    FeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,792
    It will be fascinating to see how accurate the exit poll is this time round.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,732
    Police investigate potential electoral fraud in Glasgow

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/07/04/police-investigate-potential-electoral-fraud-glasgow/
  • BartholomewRoberts
    BartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,331
    HYUFD said:

    Notice in all the seats declared so far the swing from Tories to Reform/BXP as was is bigger than the swing to Labour

    Notice in all the seats declared so far, Labour won.

    Run after the Reform vote and you'll deserve to lose your current voters and current seats to get what Reform have instead.
  • Ghedebrav
    Ghedebrav Posts: 3,860
    If the Tories do lurch rightwards they can look forward to getting plenty more second places.
  • nico679
    nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Andy_JS said:

    We've only had 5 declarations and they've missed 2 of them.

    Yes it’s pathetic .
  • FeersumEnjineeya
    FeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,792
    Benpointer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We've only had 5 declarations and they've missed 2 of them.

    'They' being?
    BBC
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    It will be fascinating to see how accurate the exit poll is this time round.

    Pretty good so far
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Sadiq Khan is a total asslicker.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Monksfield said:

    Dadge said:

    If Ross is close to losing in Moray, the Scottish part of the exit poll needs flushing.

    It immediately looked wrong.
    Might not be wrong for Lab facing SNP though
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    I struggle to understand why Warsi is in the Tory party.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQC
    AramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,901
    Cicero said:

    SNP Massacre in Glasgow.

    They're going to get absolutely pumped, don't piss off your own voters and activists, basic stuff.
  • TimS
    TimS Posts: 15,712
    Incredible punditry so far on all 3 channels. Essentially this election result shows the country is in a seething ferment of fashy extremism and Tories need to go far right to survive.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Cicero said:

    SNP Massacre in Glasgow.

    But how are they doing in the elections?
  • Stark_Dawning
    Stark_Dawning Posts: 10,202
    Oh Lordy. Baroness Warsi.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Benpointer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We've only had 5 declarations and they've missed 2 of them.

    'They' being?
    Most of the channels, BBC had the speeches but not the result itself.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    HYUFD said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Survation bang on so far. But they had the Tories getting 60 seats.

    MRP is erratic, they should have stuck to UNS
    That wouldn’t work either, with swings of this size.
  • GarethoftheVale2
    GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,350
    Dadge said:

    If Ross is close to losing in Moray, the Scottish part of the exit poll needs flushing.

    In fairness Ross could do relatively worse than other SCONs due to the ousting of Duguid.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Labour saying Dundee Central is very close - Might 10 be generous and SNP actually be the main beneficiaries of panel over engagement?
  • DecrepiterJohnL
    DecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,769
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Are the TV channels struggling to get people who are relevant on. John McDonnell and now Sayeeda Warsi.

    In olden times there were two outlets on election night: BBC and ITN. Now it is close to two dozen. Guests are spread around more, but also there is probably a limited pool of Conservative ex-ministers willing to be humiliated or Labour frontbenchers willing to risk the wrath of Keir Starmer if they go even a smidge beyond the agreed line.
  • Benpointer
    Benpointer Posts: 35,627
    IanB2 said:

    Buckland laying into his nutter colleagues

    Sounding quite sensible - where has he been hiding?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    HYUFD said:

    Notice in all the seats declared so far the swing from Tories to Reform/BXP as was is bigger than the swing to Labour

    Notice in all the seats declared so far, Labour won.

    Run after the Reform vote and you'll deserve to lose your current voters and current seats to get what Reform have instead.
    More 2019 Tory voters have defected to Reform than Labour, that is just what the results show. Yes it needs both regained to win but the former are bigger so far
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Monksfield said:

    I struggle to understand why Warsi is in the Tory party.

    Wait.

    She's still in the Tory party?
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Now Dorries is off ch4 is watchable.
  • Cicero
    Cicero Posts: 3,622
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Cicero said:

    SNP Massacre in Glasgow.

    They're going to get absolutely pumped, don't piss off your own voters and activists, basic stuff.
    If SNP is reamed across the country, leaves the North East in a very interesting situation. @RochdalePioneers any news?
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    Please let the prediction that Mogg loses be true
  • Ghedebrav
    Ghedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Robert Buckland pulling no punches.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Struggling to work out how the Tories might have lost Broxbourne. Maybe it's because of a big Reform vote without Labour coming through the middle.
  • Scott_xP
    Scott_xP Posts: 39,295
    Monksfield said:

    I struggle to understand why Warsi is in the Tory party.

    She shares Conservative values and policy. That puts her in the same party as Cameron.

    It is less clear why she would still be in the party of BoZo and Truss
  • BatteryCorrectHorse
    BatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    Robert Buckland understands how to win young voters back. So they will presumably ignore him.
  • Pro_Rata
    Pro_Rata Posts: 5,690
    Early AVG:
    Lab +4.3
    Con -20.8
    Ref +15.5
    LD -1.1
    Grn +3.1
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Buckland is on fire. Tories currently "just a desiccated management machine"!
  • nico679
    nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Those currently voting Tory aren’t going to break out the champagne if there’s a merger with Reform who are party which has zero solutions to the countries problems and is full of candidates that should be nowhere near UK politics.

  • Foxy
    Foxy Posts: 52,170
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    It will be fascinating to see how accurate the exit poll is this time round.

    i remember watching in 1997. It was a long time to wait for a Con hold
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Break in the count, I see Swindon is expected but still rough.

    A terrible night but could still have been worse!
  • EPG
    EPG Posts: 6,739
    Andy_JS said:

    Struggling to work out how the Tories might have lost Broxbourne. Maybe it's because of a big Reform vote without Labour coming through the middle.

    Broxbourne used to have a BNP presence.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Monksfield said:

    I struggle to understand why Warsi is in the Tory party.

    She is too pro Palestine for Starmer Labour?
  • Scott_xP
    Scott_xP Posts: 39,295
    Chameleon said:

    Labour saying Dundee Central is very close - Might 10 be generous and SNP actually be the main beneficiaries of panel over engagement?

    @alexmassie

    The significance of this is not Dundee so much as it is every other seat in Fife and the central belt. Because *if* *Dundee Central* is close the Nats are probably cooked everywhere else.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    edited July 2024
    edit
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Buckland for leader.
  • Ghedebrav
    Ghedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Benpointer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Buckland laying into his nutter colleagues

    Sounding quite sensible - where has he been hiding?
    Very eloquently explaining why the Tories have lost.

    No doubt they’ll decide it’s actually because of willies and fannies and homeless lifestyle choice.
  • FeersumEnjineeya
    FeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,792
    HYUFD said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    HYUFD said:

    Notice in all the seats declared so far the swing from Tories to Reform/BXP as was is bigger than the swing to Labour

    Notice in all the seats declared so far, Labour won.

    Run after the Reform vote and you'll deserve to lose your current voters and current seats to get what Reform have instead.
    More 2019 Tory voters have defected to Reform than Labour, that is just what the results show. Yes it needs both regained to win but the former are bigger so far
    But if you chase Reform votes, you lose votes to Lab/LD. The proportion of post-truth nutters in the UK is probably only about 25%, and you're not going to win elections with that.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Robert Buckland understands how to win young voters back. So they will presumably ignore him.

    Has he talked about building a million homes a year by the end of the parliament? If not he's as clueless as the rest of the useless wets.
  • Pro_Rata
    Pro_Rata Posts: 5,690
    nico679 said:

    Those currently voting Tory aren’t going to break out the champagne if there’s a merger with Reform who are party which has zero solutions to the countries problems and is full of candidates that should be nowhere near UK politics.

    Frankly, it would be a continuation of the Conservative 19-24 solution free politics
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    Chameleon said:

    Labour saying Dundee Central is very close - Might 10 be generous and SNP actually be the main beneficiaries of panel over engagement?

    Oh I do hope so
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    edited July 2024
    Newcastle C & W

    Reform in second with 7,800 to Labour’s 18,800
  • MisterBedfordshire
    MisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited July 2024
    FPT

    HYUFD Posts: 118,661
    12:30AM
    MisterBedfordshire said:
    Farage has just done to the Tories what Paisley did to the UUP in 1979.

    The UUP were still the largest Unionist party in 1979 as the Tories are now


    1979 was when they went from 1 to 3 with a similar drop in UUP ending the UUPs dominance of the "right"
  • OnlyLivingBoy
    OnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,660
    Scott_xP said:

    Chameleon said:

    Labour saying Dundee Central is very close - Might 10 be generous and SNP actually be the main beneficiaries of panel over engagement?

    @alexmassie

    The significance of this is not Dundee so much as it is every other seat in Fife and the central belt. Because *if* *Dundee Central* is close the Nats are probably cooked everywhere else.
    Yes Dundee is a relative stronghold for the SNP, certainly compared to Fife and the Central belt seats.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    edited July 2024
    Labour's vote down 10,000 in Newcastle Central. Definitely wasn't expecting that.

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2368

    Lab -13.6%
    Ref +10.7%
    Con -16.3%
    Ind +8.8%
    Oth +6.5%
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited July 2024
    Newcastle Central

    Labour 18,875
    Reform 7,815
    Cons 4228
    Ind 3627
    Greens 3228
    LDs 1946

    Swing 12% Labour to Reform
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    Farooq said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Oh Lordy. Baroness Warsi.

    What's she saying?
    The fact that she was overlooked when the vacancy came up for the position of Queen shows the deep problems that still afflict the country.
  • Taz
    Taz Posts: 19,666
    54% turnout in Newcastle central.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Lab source: thinks Ref won't get as many as 13 seats.
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    Green vote is holding up well.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Once again, reports of turnout being huge during the day were misplaced.
  • Foxy
    Foxy Posts: 52,170
    Andy_JS said:

    Labour's vote down 10,000 in Newcastle Central. I definitely wasn't expecting that.

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2368

    Lab -13.6%
    Ref +10.7%
    Con -16.3%
    Ind +8.8%
    Oth +6.5%

    A lot of votes for Yvonne Ridley. Didnt she used to be a Gallowayite?
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    Labour doon in the Toon. Hamas factor?
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,732
    Taz said:

    54% turnout in Newcastle central.

    Well voting certainly wasn't brisk there.....
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    edited July 2024
    BBC banging the "low turnout" drum when I thought it was pretty typical of these Northeast seats to have lower than national average turnouts? Swindon was over 60%+.
  • Flatlander
    Flatlander Posts: 5,138
    Andy_JS said:

    Labour's vote down 10,000 in Newcastle Central. Definitely wasn't expecting that.

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2368

    Lab -13.6%
    Ref +10.7%
    Con -16.3%
    Ind +8.8%
    Oth +6.5%

    Gaza effect?
  • biggles
    biggles Posts: 6,817
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    HYUFD said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    HYUFD said:

    Notice in all the seats declared so far the swing from Tories to Reform/BXP as was is bigger than the swing to Labour

    Notice in all the seats declared so far, Labour won.

    Run after the Reform vote and you'll deserve to lose your current voters and current seats to get what Reform have instead.
    More 2019 Tory voters have defected to Reform than Labour, that is just what the results show. Yes it needs both regained to win but the former are bigger so far
    But if you chase Reform votes, you lose votes to Lab/LD. The proportion of post-truth nutters in the UK is probably only about 25%, and you're not going to win elections with that.
    I don’t think the residual Tory Party is a the position of losing votes to anyone. This is rock bottom.
  • Ghedebrav
    Ghedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Andy_JS said:

    Labour's vote down 10,000 in Newcastle Central. Definitely wasn't expecting that.

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2368

    Lab -13.6%
    Ref +10.7%
    Con -16.3%
    Ind +8.8%
    Oth +6.5%

    Big vote for the indy there.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    I'm feeling very good about my turnout bet.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Andy_JS said:

    edit

    And 20.5% Con to Reform
  • Scott_xP
    Scott_xP Posts: 39,295
    @thetimes

    Rishi Sunak will announce his resignation as Conservative Party leader on Friday morning, the political commentator Tim Shipman has said

    Shipman added that the party will then have to decide whether to launch a leadership contest straight away or draw it out to announce a new leader at the party conference in October
  • Taz
    Taz Posts: 19,666
    KentRising said:

    Buckland is on fire. Tories currently "just a desiccated management machine"!

    Bald men fighting over a comb.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    Andy_JS said:

    Labour's vote down 10,000 in Newcastle Central. Definitely wasn't expecting that.

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2368

    Lab -13.6%
    Ref +10.7%
    Con -16.3%
    Ind +8.8%
    Oth +6.5%

    Eh? She got 21,000 last time
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Rishi Sunak will announce his resignation as Conservative Party leader on Friday morning, the political commentator Tim Shipman has said

    Shipman added that the party will then have to decide whether to launch a leadership contest straight away or draw it out to announce a new leader at the party conference in October

    Well duh.
  • Foxy
    Foxy Posts: 52,170
    edited July 2024
    Popcorn, Champers and Mrs Foxy all gone. Onto the Brandy and cheese.

    Mrs Foxy on an early start tommorow
  • SirNorfolkPassmore
    SirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,367
    biggles said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    HYUFD said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    HYUFD said:

    Notice in all the seats declared so far the swing from Tories to Reform/BXP as was is bigger than the swing to Labour

    Notice in all the seats declared so far, Labour won.

    Run after the Reform vote and you'll deserve to lose your current voters and current seats to get what Reform have instead.
    More 2019 Tory voters have defected to Reform than Labour, that is just what the results show. Yes it needs both regained to win but the former are bigger so far
    But if you chase Reform votes, you lose votes to Lab/LD. The proportion of post-truth nutters in the UK is probably only about 25%, and you're not going to win elections with that.
    I don’t think the residual Tory Party is a the position of losing votes to anyone. This is rock bottom.
    Just you wait.
  • Benpointer
    Benpointer Posts: 35,627
    Swingometer!
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Flatlander said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Labour's vote down 10,000 in Newcastle Central. Definitely wasn't expecting that.

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2368

    Lab -13.6%
    Ref +10.7%
    Con -16.3%
    Ind +8.8%
    Oth +6.5%

    Gaza effect?
    Probably, and maybe also students at home
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Labour's vote down 10,000 in Newcastle Central. Definitely wasn't expecting that.

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2368

    Lab -13.6%
    Ref +10.7%
    Con -16.3%
    Ind +8.8%
    Oth +6.5%

    Eh? She got 21,000 last time
    Gaza
  • BatteryCorrectHorse
    BatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Rishi Sunak will announce his resignation as Conservative Party leader on Friday morning, the political commentator Tim Shipman has said

    Shipman added that the party will then have to decide whether to launch a leadership contest straight away or draw it out to announce a new leader at the party conference in October

    The most unsuccessful candidate for PM in history (to run in an election)?
  • Pro_Rata
    Pro_Rata Posts: 5,690
    Andy_JS said:

    Labour's vote down 10,000 in Newcastle Central. Definitely wasn't expecting that.

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2368

    Lab -13.6%
    Ref +10.7%
    Con -16.3%
    Ind +8.8%
    Oth +6.5%

    Gone Ind and Green? That, I'm guessing, might still be a younger demographic as much as the 15.5% Muslim vote.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Very strange election.

    A Labour landslide but also feels like they are also being put on notice by Reform... If they screw up in the the next five years?
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