Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

People tell pollsters duff info – politicalbetting.com

1468910

Comments

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,311
    Jonathan said:

    Well. I care about you. Take it easy. You will no doubt have happy days soon enough. Let others enjoy their moment if it comes. Celebrate the joy of democracy.
    No, I will rant, scream and rage against the dying of the light over the next 36 hours if I need to - it's a kind of therapy for me and since no-one has listened to a word I've said over recent weeks anyway it's not going to cost any votes either.

    Primal scream therapy. Argh.

    It's hard when people you feel are on your side and your political allies desert you. Feels like a betrayal. And I'm a very loyal person- it hurts.

    Probably will throw up tomorrow night. Maybe some tears. Might even go into the streets.

    Then a glass of water, get through work on Friday- try to avoid the TV - and then spend the weekend with the family ignoring politics.

    Just hope a win a few bets too.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    Riiiiight. OK mate.
    The Omnishambles budget was 12 years ago. You know that right? And the Tories are still in power? Trying to explain anything to you is like trying to explain gravity to a chicken.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,311
    Nigelb said:

    True - but as nothing to the utter numpties who’ve been voting Tory fir the last decade.
    Except I'm smarter, brighter, more attractive and more successful than you.

    So what does that tell you?
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    No, I will rant, scream and rage against the dying of the light over the next 36 hours if I need to - it's a kind of therapy for me and since no-one has listened to a word I've said over recent weeks anyway it's not going to cost any votes either.

    Primal scream therapy. Argh.

    It's hard when people you feel are on your side and your political allies desert you. Feels like a betrayal. And I'm a very loyal person- it hurts.

    Probably will throw up tomorrow night. Maybe some tears. Might even go into the streets.

    Then a glass of water, get through work on Friday- try to avoid the TV - and then spend the weekend with the family ignoring politics.

    Just hope a win a few bets too.
    Best of luck. Those of us on the other side did the same in 2019.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    The Sun backing of Labour was more fulsome than I anticipated and actually more so than the Times.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,311
    OnboardG1 said:

    You're currently the PB equivalent of someone standing bollock naked bar a sandwich board with "The End Is Nigh" written on it. The voters know what they're voting for. It isn't your man. Cope.
    No, fuck off. You can stare at my hairy bollocks and listen to my rants for as long as my lungs hold out. And I will call you an idiot a lot - because you probably are one.

    Deal with it.
  • Except I'm smarter, brighter, more attractive and more successful than you.

    So what does that tell you?
    You avoid narrow doors for safety reasons?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,311

    Have you been hacked by Leon?
    He's voting Labour. Another example of the crazy maze we're in.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296

    Except I'm smarter, brighter, more attractive and more successful than you.

    So what does that tell you?
    It tells me you can afford to pay VAT on your kids school fees.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    Cookie said:

    I don't think any shittiness there.
    An interesting anecdote because we have heard, second hand, the thoughts of the Tory friend for years now. Presumably @Heathener is of the view said Tory friend won't mind. And kudos to Heathener for reporting a final bit of anecdata which absolutely fails to fit the narrative she has been telling these last few years.
    Horrible. Has the temerity to use the word "friend". "I didn't criticise her, but I did gently point out..."

    Vom.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,733

    Don't be ridiculous. There's an argument to eject from government.

    Not to totally wipe them out.

    That's recklessly irresponsible and borderline insane.
    I must have missed your advocating for PR.

    Your beef isn’t with the minority of voters who’ll vote Labour.
    Or if you had any intellectual honesty it wouldn’t be.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367
    edited July 2024
    dixiedean said:

    If the fantasy taxes that this Labour government are likely to impose on this board ever came to pass, then the entire national debt would be paid off in a single year.
    Then there'd be a proper tax cutting budget in Labour's second year.

    The like of the IFS have said that none of the parties are being straight on tax. The main parties have all ruled out the usual levers for raising taxation, so what's left are mostly indirect taxes.

    Labour has specifically ruled out raising the big four (income tax, national insurance, corporation tax, and VAT) that accounts for two thirds of all receipts. So all the money needed to close the spending gap will have to come from the remaining third. Short of a real economic miracle there are going to have to be a lot of tax and duty rises in all sorts of areas. Many of those will likely be very unpopular.

    It wouldn't make much difference who wins tomorrow, big rises in taxation are almost certain.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    Pulpstar said:

    The declaration times which were in the spreadsheet Matt Singh posted up and has taken down at the request of PA media form part of my GE spreadsheets...

    This is based on your spreadsheet which is really useful. Thank you.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19Rj9mRpDoxn5OQ3h5wmdydO7aO3FGXn-5uJ__LzYUHA/edit?usp=sharing
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108

    Thats the best theme tune. Perfectly captures the drama.
    Indeed. There was about a decade when they’d abandoned it, and elections weren’t the same.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,263

    He's voting Labour. Another example of the crazy maze we're in.
    Nah, he is nailed on for Reform, but even he can't defend it.
  • kle4 said:

    The worst ones will always survive.
    Like cockroaches?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    kyf_100 said:

    I think people are voting Labour because it's buggins turn, i.e. things are bad and have been getting bad the last few years. So let's kick the lot in power.

    But they are voting Labour just to kick the current lot for being shite, without any real hope that Labour will be any better. There has been no optimism in this election campaign. No promises of improvement. Because Labour don't have any answers either.

    Given their lack of a coherent plan for economic growth, plus a potential weak spot on immigration, I can see them being as unpopular as the Tories, or even worse, in a couple of years time.
    Yes. I see that, but.
    Not handing contracts to mates. Not bollocking on about trivial culture war shite of no importance but to a handful. Accepting and fessing up that things aren't Panglossian joy for everybody. Nor trumpeting Brexit as a magic
    lamp solution to all our ills. Not changing PM and key ministers as often as I change my undercrackers.
    That should count for a fair bit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,733
    edited July 2024

    Except I'm smarter, brighter, more attractive and more successful than you.

    So what does that tell you?
    That you’re boastful, along with being slightly lacking in judgment.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850

    I honestly thought that when the Pensioner and spouse died that was it and the pension was no more. I assumed that was how pension companies actually made money. The idea that pensions could be inherited down the generations is a new one to me.
    it will only die if an annuity was taken out , if a pension is in drawdown or not yet touched then can be passed on - a defined contribution pension is just savings in a tax wrapper really.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108

    Except I'm smarter, brighter, more attractive and more successful than you.

    So what does that tell you?
    That Sean has hacked your account?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,649
    Nigelb said:

    I must have missed your advocating for PR.

    Your beef isn’t with the minority of voters who’ll vote Labour.
    Or if you had any intellectual honesty it wouldn’t be.
    Surely the electoral system should be the one that best benefits my choice?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    Except I'm smarter, brighter, more attractive and more successful than you.

    So what does that tell you?
    It tells me that you are trying to compensate for something.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,566

    Don't be ridiculous. There's an argument to eject from government.

    Not to totally wipe them out.

    That's recklessly irresponsible and borderline insane.
    It's your job to reconstruct your party, not mine. It's your fault if that goes badly.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    They could just make them VAT able. No need for special taxes.
    Possibly, although (a) VAT applies to some naughties like crisps already, and in any case (b) any expansion of scope - let alone the introduction of a higher rate on energy dense foods - would violate the Labour pledge not to raise VAT.

    OTOH they've not said anything about not introducing a clone of VAT that's not actually called VAT, applicable to cake, high calorie ready meals and whatever else. They could call it Save the NHS from Fatties Tax, hypothecate it for building new hospitals, paying local councils not to close their leisure centres or whatever, and claim it's entirely novel.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,649
    DougSeal said:

    It tells me that you are trying to compensate for something.
    A lack of Venison is my guess.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,526

    No, I will rant, scream and rage against the dying of the light over the next 36 hours if I need to - it's a kind of therapy for me and since no-one has listened to a word I've said over recent weeks anyway it's not going to cost any votes either.

    Primal scream therapy. Argh.

    It's hard when people you feel are on your side and your political allies desert you. Feels like a betrayal. And I'm a very loyal person- it hurts.

    Probably will throw up tomorrow night. Maybe some tears. Might even go into the streets.

    Then a glass of water, get through work on Friday- try to avoid the TV - and then spend the weekend with the family ignoring politics.

    Just hope a win a few bets too.
    You would do better to rage against the Conservatives politicians who have let you, and the country, down.

    And then consider how the next generation of Conservative politicians can be stopped from behaving as the current lot have done.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    Farooq said:

    He really doesn't. For all his fury and condescension, I've never heard a single racist word from Casino.
    Give me anger over evil any day.
    Good point. Fair do's @Casino_Royale
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    Don't be ridiculous. There's an argument to eject from government.

    Not to totally wipe them out.

    That's recklessly irresponsible and borderline insane.
    Why not?
    They haven't done anything to deserve being the Opposition.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    IanB2 said:

    Indeed. There was about a decade when they’d abandoned it, and elections weren’t the same.
    That sounds so good. Maybe not quite the "played at clubs when I was at uni" vibe of the BBC News Pips but it definitely had something.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    No, I will rant, scream and rage against the dying of the light over the next 36 hours if I need to - it's a kind of therapy for me and since no-one has listened to a word I've said over recent weeks anyway it's not going to cost any votes either.

    Primal scream therapy. Argh.

    It's hard when people you feel are on your side and your political allies desert you. Feels like a betrayal. And I'm a very loyal person- it hurts.

    Probably will throw up tomorrow night. Maybe some tears. Might even go into the streets.

    Then a glass of water, get through work on Friday- try to avoid the TV - and then spend the weekend with the family ignoring politics.

    Just hope a win a few bets too.
    Good luck with the bets.

    Honestly, take a more philosophical approach.

    Politicians aren’t worth that kind of emotion and your opponents aren’t bad people, just people with a different perspective. If we believe the polls, about 30-40% of electorate are going to have a government that represents them for the first time in ages. Not being excluded is a good thing.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,311
    DougSeal said:

    The Omnishambles budget was 12 years ago. You know that right? And the Tories are still in power? Trying to explain anything to you is like trying to explain gravity to a chicken.
    The Omnishambles budget may have been 12 years ago, but your understanding of political nuance still seems stuck in the Stone Age.

    If trying to explain gravity to a chicken is hard, trying to explain context to you must be like explaining quantum physics to a rock.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    That's because times were benign then and people were generally content.
    I remember the tone of society being pretty despondent at the time, more so than now.
  • This is interesting. Are the polls getting reform wrong.

    Leaked messages show Tory activists are in meltdown over Reform surge!

    One activist told GB News: "I've canvassed and I never had anything like it as a Tory, Reform are sweeping us away."

    "The enthusiasm is incredible, and the hatred of my party is visceral."

    Wonderful
    9:47 PM · Jul 3, 2024
    ·
    4,131
    Views
    https://x.com/addicted2newz/status/1808603404064764021
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    dixiedean said:

    If the fantasy taxes that this Labour government are likely to impose on this board ever came to pass, then the entire national debt would be paid off in a single year.
    Then there'd be a proper tax cutting budget in Labour's second year.

    If only that were the case - you would have to raise close to 40k from every man woman and child
  • I would say by far the biggest chance of a major polling error is with the reform share.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Good grief - what will it be like in here tomorrow night at 10:01pm?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    edited July 2024

    He's voting Labour. Another example of the crazy maze we're in.
    Give me one good reason to vote Conservative, when the Conservatives have raised immigration to its highest levels in our history - and it really IS on a truly insane scale, 1 in 30 people in Britain arrived in the last 3 years

    Also, we have the highest tax burden since WW2. And the tories have done nothing to reverse Woke. And they have deported maybe 8 people to Rwanda and still the boats come. And then there's all the corruption and lies and venality and Truss and sewage and full-up-prisons and the very very very real decay I can see all around my own country, such that it makes me urgently want to emigrate? Indeed, such that I have already basically emigrated

    Why in the name of Holy Fuck should I give my vote to a party that has done all that and failed to do so much more?

    The Tories have screwed up on a Wagnerian scale and they deserve to die as a punishment. Moreover, their death is the only way I can see for a proper, serious rightwing party to emerge from the ruins. They are now simply blocking the road and they need to be swept into oblivion
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,012
    kyf_100 said:

    The problem with this is assuming that Labour will do any better, or have a plan.

    The Conservatives are awful. Genuinely, awful. The question is do Labour have a plan for better, or is it more managed decline?

    This Conservative government is the worst in my lifetime. Yet the election campaign has not convinced me that Labour have a plan for the economy or will be any better.

    I remember the sense of optimism in 1997 - "things can only get better". But people aren't voting Labour for that reason in 2024, they're voting Labour because the Conservatives have done so badly, they don't believe things can get any worse.
    That's perhaps fair to think that - no one could argue Labour's got a comprehensive map out of the woods, though I'd argue it's fairly clear what the broader shape of Labour's plan is.

    Raise some revenue with tweaks to tax to alleviate immediate crises that are in their in-tray while betting in the longer term that significant planning reform, easing trade friction with the EU/other states, the alleviation of said crises, moving forward with infrastructure projects, and especially ones that can secure private investment, will mean they overshoot current growth projections. That then gives them the headroom to do the bigger things they'd like at the end of a first or in a second term. In the meantime, sweat the small stuff that makes people's everyday lives a bit easier.

    Easier said than done of course and could botch it or get stuck, but it's a plan. Even fixing a few of the messes left them by the Tories might mean things feel a bit better by 2029.

    It's also worth remembering that in 1997 Labour stuck as rigidly to the Tories' spending plans. The economic climate was just much more benign, which was part of the optimism. But they really didn't come in promising the world, rather let the booming economy do its work and make people feel more prosperous, and then from a solid fiscal position started to direct the proceeds towards higher spending on public services. You could say there are similarities - with the differences the less benign backdrop and more interventionist state role in Starmer's pitch now.

    If Starmer had come out with a manifesto saying he was going to chuck money at stuff or have big giveaways he wouldn't be believed. As Corbyn wasn't and to a lesser extent some of Sunak's mooted giveaways now aren't.

    It's not the stuff of inspirational posters, but if it even half works out then Britain will feel a bit better - which is I think all people ask right now.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,311

    You would do better to rage against the Conservatives politicians who have let you, and the country, down.

    And then consider how the next generation of Conservative politicians can be stopped from behaving as the current lot have done.
    I've done very well under the Conservatives but, again, scrutinise the challenger.

    We will lose this time and there's been an abject failure of the democratic process to put the alternative administration and their plans under the microscope.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,733

    Good grief - what will it be like in here tomorrow night at 10:01pm?

    Pretty quiet, as everyone will be knackered.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Good grief - what will it be like in here tomorrow night at 10:01pm?

    My plan is to sit on Zoom with some uni friends, drink beer, talk rubbish and probably play Among Us while we wait for the results.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,653
    edited July 2024
    Election DInner update.

    I just found a pheasant in the freezer that I had forgotten about.

    So I'm having pheasant, a decent wine, and maybe an English Sparklng with cheese later, with which I will toast the first post-Election Shadow Cabinet meeting of generation Sunak and the Shysters.

    "What's that smell, Rishi?"
    "We're in a cesspit; the voters shat us down the toilet of history."

    Tomorrow I might even offer a couple of hours to Ashfield Labour GOTV; it is touch and go on the markets for this seat.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    edited July 2024

    The Omnishambles budget may have been 12 years ago, but your understanding of political nuance still seems stuck in the Stone Age.

    If trying to explain gravity to a chicken is hard, trying to explain context to you must be like explaining quantum physics to a rock.
    You have literally no sense of humour or irony, you joyless muppet. I've seen spreadsheets with more charisma. Seriously, you could suck the fun out of a comedy club and turn it into a tax seminar. When it comes to irony, you're about as sharp as a marble. Go and find a sense of humour before I have to explain sarcasm to you with a PowerPoint presentation
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    Cicero said:

    The blank cheque the Tories got in 2019... how did that go again?
    It was spent paying for Covid and the war in Ukraine.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955
    MJW said:

    That's perhaps fair to think that - no one could argue Labour's got a comprehensive map out of the woods, though I'd argue it's fairly clear what the broader shape of Labour's plan is.

    Raise some revenue with tweaks to tax to alleviate immediate crises that are in their in-tray while betting in the longer term that significant planning reform, easing trade friction with the EU/other states, the alleviation of said crises, moving forward with infrastructure projects, and especially ones that can secure private investment, will mean they overshoot current growth projections. That then gives them the headroom to do the bigger things they'd like at the end of a first or in a second term. In the meantime, sweat the small stuff that makes people's everyday lives a bit easier.

    Easier said than done of course and could botch it or get stuck, but it's a plan. Even fixing a few of the messes left them by the Tories might mean things feel a bit better by 2029.

    It's also worth remembering that in 1997 Labour stuck as rigidly to the Tories' spending plans. The economic climate was just much more benign, which was part of the optimism. But they really didn't come in promising the world, rather let the booming economy do its work and make people feel more prosperous, and then from a solid fiscal position started to direct the proceeds towards higher spending on public services. You could say there are similarities - with the differences the less benign backdrop and more interventionist state role in Starmer's pitch now.

    If Starmer had come out with a manifesto saying he was going to chuck money at stuff or have big giveaways he wouldn't be believed. As Corbyn wasn't and to a lesser extent some of Sunak's mooted giveaways now aren't.

    It's not the stuff of inspirational posters, but if it even half works out then Britain will feel a bit better - which is I think all people ask right now.
    That's fair.

    It's also the equivalent of playing a hand of five card stud and when the dealer asks you how many cards you'd like to change, you ask for four.

    Everyone knows we have a bad hand right now, there's no guarantee the cards we're dealt next will be any better, or any worse.

    As I say, that's Labour in 2024. It's a long way from optimistic belief that 'things can only get better' that carried Labour to victory in 1997.

    And if things don't get better, the electorate will be asking for a whole new deck in 2029.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,311
    Jonathan said:

    Good luck with the bets.

    Honestly, take a more philosophical approach.

    Politicians aren’t worth that kind of emotion and your opponents aren’t bad people, just people with a different perspective. If we believe the polls, about 30-40% of electorate are going to have a government that represents them for the first time in ages. Not being excluded is a good thing.
    Thanks. I've said before I hope Labour deliver for their base, for the sake of democracy, and I meant it. I am frustrated though by how little scrutiny they've had in this campaign, which I think is bad for a whole host of reasons.

    Yes, I get very emotional when I feel people who were on my side, or who I thought were on my side, desert. I have a strong brand loyalty, maybe even tribal loyalty, to the Conservatives. And it runs in my family too.

    It feels like a betrayal, and I don't handle that well :-(
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 140
    Lots of predictions today.

    My final UK-Elect forecast (which I posted on another thread just before this one started) shows Labour 426 seats, Conservative 116, Liberal Democrat 57, SNP 17, Reform UK 8, Plaid Cymru 4, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 204. It's at https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts/20240703ForecastUKFinal.html The forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240703ForecastUKFinal/UKTop3Forecast.csv

    In 24 hours time we'll all have a much better idea of whether the more extreme MRPs are right or not, unless there is a massive exit poll failure, of course..
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    On pensions I do think they should be subject to IHT rules if there is money left when a person dies. It just seems fair . I hate too much tax but if that is used to bring down other taxes I would be suportive . Given my eclectic career I have all sorts of pensions including
    defined benefit civil service one
    SIPP (biggest)
    Employer defined contribution one
    and a weird hybrid of a defined contribution and hybrid one (that is what you get for working for the Church of England who always do things different to anybody else!)
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    MattW said:

    Election DInner update.

    I just found a pheasant in the freezer that I had forgotten about.

    So I'm having pheasant, a decent wine, and maybe an English Sparklng with cheese later, with which I will toast the first post-Election Ahadow Cabinet meeting of generation Sunak and the Shysters.

    "What's that smell, Rishi?"
    "We're in a cesspit; the voters shat us down the toilet of history."

    It's looking like venison chilli leftovers tomorrow, although I might break my one-takeaway-a-week rule and get election pizza.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    Nigelb said:

    Pretty quiet, as everyone will be knackered.
    Nah, we mostly armchair warriors here. My own days of starting with the 5am early morning delivery and then knocking myself out with a solid fifteen hours of delivery and door knocking with only spells of telling for a break are behind me now.

    By 10pm Sean will be wasted as usual, Rochdale will be knackered and the rest of us will be fresh and raring to go…
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,649
    edited July 2024

    Good grief - what will it be like in here tomorrow night at 10:01pm?

    "Joey...."

    image
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    Good grief - what will it be like in here tomorrow night at 10:01pm?

    Have you never been on PB on election night before? It's a pretty manic experience, to put it mildly.

    This was 2017 election night.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/08/remember-how-at-euref-newcastle-and-sunderland-gave-us-the-first-pointers-as-to-what-was-to-come/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    No, I will rant, scream and rage against the dying of the light over the next 36 hours if I need to - it's a kind of therapy for me and since no-one has listened to a word I've said over recent weeks anyway it's not going to cost any votes either.

    Primal scream therapy. Argh.

    It's hard when people you feel are on your side and your political allies desert you. Feels like a betrayal. And I'm a very loyal person- it hurts.

    Probably will throw up tomorrow night. Maybe some tears. Might even go into the streets.

    Then a glass of water, get through work on Friday- try to avoid the TV - and then spend the weekend with the family ignoring politics.

    Just hope a win a few bets too.
    Hey. Look after you and yours. You're going to lose big time. But that doesn't reflect on you. Tides come in and out. We don't like it but they do. This is our time. We've lost a lot. It's your turn now. Let us enjoy our moment please ? Time to shift mode. It's our job to run the country not yours*. So we need a mindset change.
    Genuine best wishes to you and your daughter. The Sun will rise and set. And the Earth will turn.

    *Of course WE don't. Maybe it would be better if we did?
  • For what it's worth, I think some of the Reform share is poll respondent shorthand for "will not vote", that their vote share will be lower than expected, but that it will marginally benefit all other parties. That is, a good number of people saying Reform will stay at home rather than switching to the Tories late on.

    But that's just a feeling based on relatively little.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,311
    .
    dixiedean said:

    Hey. Look after you and yours. You're going to lose big time. But that doesn't reflect on you. Tides come in and out. We don't like it but they do. This is our time. We've lost a lot. It's your turn now. Let us enjoy our moment please ? Time to shift mode. It's our job to run the country not yours*. So we need a mindset change.
    Genuine best wishes to you and your daughter. The Sun will rise and set. And the Earth will turn.

    *Of course WE don't. Maybe it would be better if we did?
    Thanks.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    JLP slipped a final VI poll in
    NEW: Final @RestIsPolitics / JLP voting intention poll, July 2nd - 3rd 2024

    *Labour lead at 15 points, Reform recovers to close to previous peak*

    Change on weekend in brackets

    LAB: 38% (-1)
    CON: 23% (-1)
    REF: 17% (+1)
    LDEM: 13% (+3)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited July 2024

    JLP slipped a final VI poll in
    NEW: Final @RestIsPolitics / JLP voting intention poll, July 2nd - 3rd 2024

    *Labour lead at 15 points, Reform recovers to close to previous peak*

    Change on weekend in brackets

    LAB: 38% (-1)
    CON: 23% (-1)
    REF: 17% (+1)
    LDEM: 13% (+3)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

    I like this poll because it confirms what I think might happen. 😊
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,263
    edited July 2024

    I would say by far the biggest chance of a major polling error is with the reform share.

    Yes. I think it will be more lumpy than even. Overall I am betting on less than 14%, but there are seats where it may well be high enough to win the seat, particularly as a 3 way, and that will be where the value is. For example Melton&Syston or NW Leics both 29 with Bet365.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,526
    Andy_JS said:

    Have you never been on PB on election night before? It's a pretty manic experience, to put it mildly.

    This was 2017 election night.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/08/remember-how-at-euref-newcastle-and-sunderland-gave-us-the-first-pointers-as-to-what-was-to-come/
    I remember 2010 well.

    How many of us were here back then.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    edited July 2024
    DougSeal said:

    It tells me that you are trying to compensate for something.
    It’s hard to think of anything more unintelligent than going round boasting about your intelligence? If you conjure up an image of someone who genuinely has a deep, insightful, analytical, high-powered brain, it’s just not something they would ever do. There would be no need.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,937

    JLP slipped a final VI poll in
    NEW: Final @RestIsPolitics / JLP voting intention poll, July 2nd - 3rd 2024

    *Labour lead at 15 points, Reform recovers to close to previous peak*

    Change on weekend in brackets

    LAB: 38% (-1)
    CON: 23% (-1)
    REF: 17% (+1)
    LDEM: 13% (+3)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

    LD are yo-yoing around all over the place with the different pollsters.

    Reform certainly seem to be holding together far more than I expected this late on.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,311
    DougSeal said:

    You have literally no sense of humour or irony, you joyless muppet. I've seen spreadsheets with more charisma. Seriously, you could suck the fun out of a comedy club and turn it into a tax seminar. When it comes to irony, you're about as sharp as a marble. Go and find a sense of humour before I have to explain sarcasm to you with a PowerPoint presentation
    It seems like you're really keen to have the last Word.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    dixiedean said:

    Yes. I see that, but.
    Not handing contracts to mates. Not bollocking on about trivial culture war shite of no importance but to a handful. Accepting and fessing up that things aren't Panglossian joy for everybody. Nor trumpeting Brexit as a magic
    lamp solution to all our ills. Not changing PM and key ministers as often as I change my undercrackers.
    That should count for a fair bit.
    I would be surprised if friends of Labour aren't rubbing their hands together at the prospect of them getting in, and I would be flabbergasted if when it is more difficult to do what they think would be done, they don't bring out all the culture war stuff of their own.

    I live in hope but to imagine one set of politicians to be better than the other lot seems to defy historical precedence.
  • Oh dear the mail lol

    "Vote Farage get them"

    https://x.com/hendopolis/status/1808610332447027385
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,132

    I remember 2010 well.

    How many of us were here back then.
    Bring back the IRC channel...
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Andy_JS said:

    Have you never been on PB on election night before? It's a pretty manic experience, to put it mildly.

    This was 2017 election night.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/08/remember-how-at-euref-newcastle-and-sunderland-gave-us-the-first-pointers-as-to-what-was-to-come/
    I have been on here for years, several elections worth, but we rarely get the sort of pre-election meltdown that is on display tonight. It usually happens on Friday morning...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    edited July 2024

    You would do better to rage against the Conservatives politicians who have let you, and the country, down.

    And then consider how the next generation of Conservative politicians can be stopped from behaving as the current lot have done.
    Rather than raging against people intending to vote Labour - a shrinking constituency across the country at present - the more pressing concern for Casino is how to ensure that his party doesn't sell itself to Farage. Many of the party's MPs are desperate to do so, seeing in that act their future renaissance, while the polling of the membership suggests they are even more eager to have Farage as their figurehead.

    Given all the things that have happened during the 2019-24 it would be strange were the Tories not to receive a pasting at this election. One of the deciding factors for the future course of British politics is not so much the scale of the Tory defeat, but whether they react to that defeat by embracing Farage.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,311
    Leon said:

    Give me one good reason to vote Conservative, when the Conservatives have raised immigration to its highest levels in our history - and it really IS on a truly insane scale, 1 in 30 people in Britain arrived in the last 3 years

    Also, we have the highest tax burden since WW2. And the tories have done nothing to reverse Woke. And they have deported maybe 8 people to Rwanda and still the boats come. And then there's all the corruption and lies and venality and Truss and sewage and full-up-prisons and the very very very real decay I can see all around my own country, such that it makes me urgently want to emigrate? Indeed, such that I have already basically emigrated

    Why in the name of Holy Fuck should I give my vote to a party that has done all that and failed to do so much more?

    The Tories have screwed up on a Wagnerian scale and they deserve to die as a punishment. Moreover, their death is the only way I can see for a proper, serious rightwing party to emerge from the ruins. They are now simply blocking the road and they need to be swept into oblivion
    I listed that out three weeks ago. Other people seem to be able to scan and find my posts in about 30 seconds. But unfortunately, I don't know how to do it other than trying to manually fish through the last 300 posts.

    And I'm too tired to do it again tonight, sorry, and you wouldn't listen to me anyway.

    You don't mean it literally, just rhetorically, and if Reform is the alternative to Labour then God help us.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    edited July 2024
    Andy_JS said:

    I like this poll because it confirms what I think might happen. 😊
    That would be a big ooft for the Tories based on EC. Sub 100 seats, labour majority of 236.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    I remember 2010 well.

    How many of us were here back then.
    Not sure whether I was on at that time. I may have joined just afterwards.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,311
    Ok, I am going to bed now.

    Sweet Betfairing all.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    If only that were the case - you would have to raise close to 40k from every man woman and child
    That is pretty much the sum of the amounts various posters seem to think is "probable".
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,945

    The internal EU politics - especially about subsidies/budgets - strongly suggests to me that, if asked, the EU would say “join the queue to join on the standard terms”.
    Is there a queue to join the EU?
    Who is in that queue?
  • TimS said:

    LD are yo-yoing around all over the place with the different pollsters.

    Reform certainly seem to be holding together far more than I expected this late on.
    Mail headline tomorrow suggests the tories are extremely worried about reform. Maybe their private polling is worrying.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    I feels a bit like this on here this evening...

    The Thick Of It - Super Gay-Weight Title Fight
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rG_DvlFJ-YQ
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,865

    There we have it: whatboutism followed by a lot of projection and "hope".

    Exactly what I'm talking about.
    Whataboutism? Your party gave us May, Johnson and Truss in short order. None of whom were up to the job. I shall raise a glass of my best Malbec tomorrow as I watch your party take the beating it so richly deserves.

    Starmer offers a degree of hope. Your lot offer nothing, zero, zilch. The square root of fuck all. Just endless culture war and performance politics aimed at the old and ignorant.

    When you bring people like Rory Stewart back into the party I might start watching again.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,263
    edited July 2024

    Good grief - what will it be like in here tomorrow night at 10:01pm?

    I am planning a tactical nap after work, with the alarm set for 2145.

    Cheese, biscuits and some plonk to keep me going. Brandy for medicinal purposes in reserve.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806

    JLP slipped a final VI poll in
    NEW: Final @RestIsPolitics / JLP voting intention poll, July 2nd - 3rd 2024

    *Labour lead at 15 points, Reform recovers to close to previous peak*

    Change on weekend in brackets

    LAB: 38% (-1)
    CON: 23% (-1)
    REF: 17% (+1)
    LDEM: 13% (+3)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

    BAXTERED:

    LAB: 443
    CON: 88
    REF: 8
    LDEM: 70
    GRN: 3

    Another mind-bending prediction which now seems totally normal
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 982
    Andy_JS said:

    Have you never been on PB on election night before? It's a pretty manic experience, to put it mildly.

    This was 2017 election night.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/08/remember-how-at-euref-newcastle-and-sunderland-gave-us-the-first-pointers-as-to-what-was-to-come/
    You're prediction 1 min before exit poll
    "I'm going for Con 380, Lab 190" ,😜
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,829
    ...

    .

    Thanks.
    The Tory Party is just the democratic expression of a set of people in the country - of their aspirations, views, beliefs, and interests. When it fails to serve those people but thinks instead that it can march them into the voting booths 'for fear of worse', they are obviously going to find an alternative.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,526
    Andy_JS said:

    Not sure whether I was on at that time. I may have joined just afterwards.
    I'm sure you were here.

    And on UKPR.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    @Pulpstar - Thanks for your spreadsheet with (hopefully!) the live results from Democracy Club. I've linked my own spreadsheet to it for use in keeping track of the cricket grounds and a few other things that I will keep track of.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,937
    Here’s the final Sky poll aggregator average:

    Lab 39.1 (36-43) 
    Con 21.1 (16-25) 
    Reform 16.6 (15-20) 
    Lib Dems 10.8 (10-13) 
    Green 6.5 (4-9) 
    SNP 2.9 (2-5)


    https://x.com/drjennings/status/1808619149129887825?s=46

    So final scores for the blocs: LLG 56.4 RefCon 37.7

    That’s a 1-2% swing over the course of the campaign from left to right, largely due to the Reform surge. SNP a little up from where they started too.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    Don't be ridiculous. There's an argument to eject from government.

    Not to totally wipe them out.

    That's recklessly irresponsible and borderline insane.
    I agree with you that taxes will probably be slightly higher under Labour than they would have been under the Conservatives. Although several Conservative policies have increased taxes relative to income, notably pension triple lock and Brexit.

    I also agree one dominating party like we are likely to see under Labour is bad for democracy and governance.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,591
    rcs1000 said:

    In short: it's complicated. But in general:

    - defined benefit pensions are *not* inherited
    - with defined contribution, it's more complicated. If (as most people do), the pool is converted to an annuity, then that is not inherited either. And yes, Richard, that is exactly how pension companies make their money.
    - if, on the other hand, the pension pot is not converted to an annuity and is instead drawn down in one way or another, then yes it is an inheritable asset.
    Are you sure most people buy an annuity? The returns are derisory, so they must be taking advice from the vendors.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,937

    Mail headline tomorrow suggests the tories are extremely worried about reform. Maybe their private polling is worrying.
    That’s just loyal Tory GOTV tactics from the Mail.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,012
    kyf_100 said:

    That's fair.

    It's also the equivalent of playing a hand of five card stud and when the dealer asks you how many cards you'd like to change, you ask for four.

    Everyone knows we have a bad hand right now, there's no guarantee the cards we're dealt next will be any better, or any worse.

    As I say, that's Labour in 2024. It's a long way from optimistic belief that 'things can only get better' that carried Labour to victory in 1997.

    And if things don't get better, the electorate will be asking for a whole new deck in 2029.
    Oh of course. I just think the most likely scenario (absent major global crises of some sort that has a major impact on Britain - and that's not as unlikely as we'd like) is they grasp the low hanging fruit and make people feel a little bit better, while being a bit underwhelming and disappointing if you are expecting them to be immediately transformative. A lot depends on if they get lucky on/can manufacture growth. But even if don't live up to that, if there's enough small improvements on each issue/policy area it'll all add up.

    As I say, the optimism felt in 97 wasn't completely to do with what Labour were promising - which was fairly underwhelming of and in itself, but the backdrop and the feeling of a country that was becoming more prosperous and relevant again. 'Cool Britannia', Euro 96 and all that. We're just in different times and fairly ground down by the last 16 years if you count the crash. Labour can't immediately change that mood.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,852
    All the pollsters now seem to have Labour at their low point and Reform at their high point.

    If they’re directionally correct but are underestimating the scale, then Goodwin could end up being vindicated.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,937
    TimS said:

    Here’s the final Sky poll aggregator average:

    Lab 39.1 (36-43) 
    Con 21.1 (16-25) 
    Reform 16.6 (15-20) 
    Lib Dems 10.8 (10-13) 
    Green 6.5 (4-9) 
    SNP 2.9 (2-5)


    https://x.com/drjennings/status/1808619149129887825?s=46

    So final scores for the blocs: LLG 56.4 RefCon 37.7

    That’s a 1-2% swing over the course of the campaign from left to right, largely due to the Reform surge. SNP a little up from where they started too.

    I was going to Baxter it, against my better judgment, but EC seems to be crashing.
  • I'd recommend the documentary about that. 11 minutes. On IPlayer I think.
    I cannot watch that documentary. I have friends who were in that crowd - some of whom own guns. That day they realized all the stuff about 'good guys with guns' stopping 'bad guys with guns' is utter garbage.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    I'm sure you were here.

    And on UKPR.
    I was definitely on UKPR from around 2007 onwards. I would have joined PB just before that election in that case.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    OK let's have some fun. It looks like the final trends are for LAB and CON to slip, and LDs and REF to gain

    So let's say that continues and intensifies in the final 24 hours and it's something like

    LAB: 36
    CON: 19
    REF: 20
    LDs: 16
    GRN: 4


    That would produce:

    LAB: 443
    CON: 63
    REF: 26
    LIB: 77
    GRN: 3

    The SNP get 15 seats with almost any result

    Let's go a bit crazier and say the slippage is even bigger

    LAB: 35
    CON: 18
    REF: 21
    LDs: 16
    GRN: 5

    Baxtered:

    LAB: 436
    CON: 55
    REF: 38
    LDM: 80
    GRN: 3


    With an opposition this fragmented, and Reform doing so well. Labour can get an ENORMOUS majority on just a third of the vote
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,733
    “Today, U.S. manufacturing capacity is 26 gigawatts, compared to China’s over 1 terawatt (1,000 gigawatts) capacity.”

    Interesting article:

    Assessing the United States’ Solar Power Play
    https://www.csis.org/analysis/assessing-united-states-solar-power-play

    Solar is only going to get cheaper, but the US has some tough decisions coming up very soon on whether to continue to press for growing its domestic manufacturing - largely with Chinese manufacturers - or just import everything.



  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,937
    TimS said:

    I was going to Baxter it, against my better judgment, but EC seems to be crashing.
    Back working again, so just for lols:

    Lab 462
    Con 71
    LD 69
    Ref 7
    Green 3
    SNP 15
    PC 3
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Andy_JS said:

    I was definitely on UKPR from around 2007 onwards. I would have joined PB just before that election in that case.
    I was reading PB if not commenting on it, and watching uploads of old election nights posted by somebody on YouTube.
This discussion has been closed.