Solar is only going to get cheaper, but the US has some tough decisions coming up very soon on whether to continue to press for growing its domestic manufacturing - largely with Chinese manufacturers - or just import everything.
The US has just broken ground on it's next-gen nuclear reactors. Bill Gates seems to have been quietly pushing their political buttons for a decade or more to make it happen.
The polls could well be totally out on Reform in either direction. They're a polling nightmare: Low-trust voters who don't want to talk to pollsters, potential embarrassment on the one side, potentially previously unmobilized voters on the other, and they didn't run last time so there's no data from that.
But if you believe ramping sourced to "one activist" then you're an idiot.
The polls could well be totally out on Reform in either direction. They're a polling nightmare: Low-trust voters who don't want to talk to pollsters, potential embarrassment on the one side, potentially previously unmobilized voters on the other, and they didn't run last time so there's no data from that.
But if you believe ramping sourced to "one activist" then you're an idiot.
OK let's have some fun. It looks like the final trends are for LAB and CON to slip, and LDs and REF to gain
So let's say that continues and intensifies in the final 24 hours and it's something like
LAB: 36 CON: 19 REF: 20 LDs: 16 GRN: 4
That would produce:
LAB: 443 CON: 63 REF: 26 LIB: 77 GRN: 3
The SNP get 15 seats with almost any result
Let's go a bit crazier and say the slippage is even bigger
LAB: 35 CON: 18 REF: 21 LDs: 16 GRN: 5
Baxtered:
LAB: 436 CON: 55 REF: 38 LDM: 80 GRN: 3
With an opposition this fragmented, and Reform doing so well. Labour can get an ENORMOUS majority on just a third of the vote
It's what our silly system does when you have only one large party and several smaller ones. The smaller ones have more support collectively but it doesn't stop them being overwhelmed. An outcome like that would merely be a slightly less extreme version of what happened to Scotland in 2015.
OK let's have some fun. It looks like the final trends are for LAB and CON to slip, and LDs and REF to gain
So let's say that continues and intensifies in the final 24 hours and it's something like
LAB: 36 CON: 19 REF: 20 LDs: 16 GRN: 4
That would produce:
LAB: 443 CON: 63 REF: 26 LIB: 77 GRN: 3
The SNP get 15 seats with almost any result
Let's go a bit crazier and say the slippage is even bigger
LAB: 35 CON: 18 REF: 21 LDs: 16 GRN: 5
Baxtered:
LAB: 436 CON: 55 REF: 38 LDM: 80 GRN: 3
With an opposition this fragmented, and Reform doing so well. Labour can get an ENORMOUS majority on just a third of the vote
It's what our silly system does when you have only one large party and several smaller ones. The smaller ones have more support collectively but it doesn't stop them being overwhelmed. An outcome like that would merely be a slightly less extreme version of what happened to Scotland in 2015.
Indeed, I've been larking about with the Baxter-matic and you can get insane results even with Labour down to 30% if the opposition is perfectly fragmented (and Reform do really well, relatively). ie Labour still have a three figure majority
I just found a pheasant in the freezer that I had forgotten about.
So I'm having pheasant, a decent wine, and maybe an English Sparklng with cheese later, with which I will toast the first post-Election Shadow Cabinet meeting of generation Sunak and the Shysters.
"What's that smell, Rishi?" "We're in a cesspit; the voters shat us down the toilet of history."
Tomorrow I might even offer a couple of hours to Ashfield Labour GOTV; it is touch and go on the markets for this seat.
I just found a pheasant in the freezer that I had forgotten about is close to peak PB.
Particularly from a Labour supporter!! I am looking forward to tomorrow though as we face an election without the spectre of Corbyn, I need not worry that my vote will let him in!
Will anyone be drinking that special whisky tomorrow night which has been waiting years for a special occasion?
Thinking about the good Glen Garioch if DRoss loses ANME, especially if Rochdale has a good result. An Aberdeenshire whisky seems appropriate. May have another if Jenrick loses, then if Mogg loses, then if Sunak loses …. hic!
Will anyone be drinking that special whisky tomorrow night which has been waiting years for a special occasion?
Thinking about the good Glen Garioch if DRoss loses ANME, especially if Rochdale has a good result. An Aberdeenshire whisky seems appropriate. May have another if Jenrick loses, then if Mogg loses, then if Sunak loses …. hic!
Under no circumstances have a shot every time you hear 'worst result since the Great Reform Act', you'll be in a coma by ten past eleven.
Such is the insanity of FPTP, if the opposition is fragmented just so, Labour can get 31% and still have an overwhelming majority of 160
On 31%!
Now. You get this now, but you didn't get it in the days of the Alliance?
tbf we've never had an alignment as insane as this. Also, I have been persuaded of the merits of PR for about three-four years now. You can believe me or not, but this is not some brand new conversion on my part. Our politics NEEDS new parties and new ideas. FPTP is not working for us
OK let's have some fun. It looks like the final trends are for LAB and CON to slip, and LDs and REF to gain
So let's say that continues and intensifies in the final 24 hours and it's something like
LAB: 36 CON: 19 REF: 20 LDs: 16 GRN: 4
That would produce:
LAB: 443 CON: 63 REF: 26 LIB: 77 GRN: 3
The SNP get 15 seats with almost any result
Let's go a bit crazier and say the slippage is even bigger
LAB: 35 CON: 18 REF: 21 LDs: 16 GRN: 5
Baxtered:
LAB: 436 CON: 55 REF: 38 LDM: 80 GRN: 3
With an opposition this fragmented, and Reform doing so well. Labour can get an ENORMOUS majority on just a third of the vote
It's what our silly system does when you have only one large party and several smaller ones. The smaller ones have more support collectively but it doesn't stop them being overwhelmed. An outcome like that would merely be a slightly less extreme version of what happened to Scotland in 2015.
Indeed, I've been larking about with the Baxter-matic and you can get insane results even with Labour down to 30% if the opposition is perfectly fragmented (and Reform do really well, relatively). ie Labour still have a three figure majority
In the days of the Alliance they won 20 odd seats compared to Labour on 200 odd with almost identical votes because their vote was evenly spread. So much so that if they had hit a figure north of about 37% they would have won nearly all the seats. The voting system is bonkers for many reasons. This is just one of them.
I just found a pheasant in the freezer that I had forgotten about.
So I'm having pheasant, a decent wine, and maybe an English Sparklng with cheese later, with which I will toast the first post-Election Shadow Cabinet meeting of generation Sunak and the Shysters.
"What's that smell, Rishi?" "We're in a cesspit; the voters shat us down the toilet of history."
Tomorrow I might even offer a couple of hours to Ashfield Labour GOTV; it is touch and go on the markets for this seat.
I just found a pheasant in the freezer that I had forgotten about is close to peak PB.
It's an Aldi Pheasant with bacon rashers from last Christmas, so may not count ;-) . Aldi have some great deals around then.
My favourite was a relative who bought a whole salmon about 3ft long, and froze it without portioning. It lurked at the bottom of the freezer for months like Jaws before they worked out that they had to either a) Thaw it and live on salmon for a week or b) Admit the problem and use a hacksaw to chunk it whilst still frozen.
Will anyone be drinking that special whisky tomorrow night which has been waiting years for a special occasion?
No, but something pink and sparkling has been purchased from the local wine shop (we still have one of those, the town clearly possessing a sizeable population of well-heeled inebriates,) as a small indulgence for tomorrow night. I suppose you could call me a Champagne Social Democrat.
All the final polls tonight have Labour below the 43% Blair got in 1997 but heading for a bigger majority than then due to the split on the right between Tory and Reform. LDs also below 1997 levels but again may get more seats than then for the same reason, looks like FPTP will really boost the left and hit the right for once tomorrow. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
The MRPs at least suggest the Tories will be over the pyschologically important 100 seats mark though and still clearly the main opposition to a near certain Starmer government
It’s your crooked voting system; lap it up.
FPTP is not crooked, it is just not, to my mind, the best option.
No option is great but a top up system would probably give the conservatives another 100 seats.
And it’s not about you it’s about us.
An aside I’ve always wondered if we could weight votes. The predicted 80 Tories sharing 21% of the 650 votes. So each member vote counts as 136/80 of the total.
It keeps the constituency link and the proportional weight.
OK let's have some fun. It looks like the final trends are for LAB and CON to slip, and LDs and REF to gain
So let's say that continues and intensifies in the final 24 hours and it's something like
LAB: 36 CON: 19 REF: 20 LDs: 16 GRN: 4
That would produce:
LAB: 443 CON: 63 REF: 26 LIB: 77 GRN: 3
The SNP get 15 seats with almost any result
Let's go a bit crazier and say the slippage is even bigger
LAB: 35 CON: 18 REF: 21 LDs: 16 GRN: 5
Baxtered:
LAB: 436 CON: 55 REF: 38 LDM: 80 GRN: 3
With an opposition this fragmented, and Reform doing so well. Labour can get an ENORMOUS majority on just a third of the vote
It's what our silly system does when you have only one large party and several smaller ones. The smaller ones have more support collectively but it doesn't stop them being overwhelmed. An outcome like that would merely be a slightly less extreme version of what happened to Scotland in 2015.
Indeed, I've been larking about with the Baxter-matic and you can get insane results even with Labour down to 30% if the opposition is perfectly fragmented (and Reform do really well, relatively). ie Labour still have a three figure majority
In the days of the Alliance they won 20 odd seats compared to Labour on 200 odd with almost identical votes because their vote was evenly spread. So much so that if they had hit a figure north of about 37% they would have won nearly all the seats. The voting system is bonkers for many reasons. This is just one of them.
I used to believe in FPTP because it "delivers strong government" and because "the constituency connection with MPs is important"
But being on PB has persuaded me there are PR systems which preserve the constituency link, for starters, and also the idea that FPTP "delivers strong government" is fatuous, in the light of what he have experienced since 2005
So, I am intellectually entirely convinced, and have been for a while. We need PR
Such is the insanity of FPTP, if the opposition is fragmented just so, Labour can get 31% and still have an overwhelming majority of 160
On 31%!
Now. You get this now, but you didn't get it in the days of the Alliance?
tbf we've never had an alignment as insane as this. Also, I have been persuaded of the merits of PR for about three-four years now. You can believe me or not, but this is not some brand new conversion on my part. Our politics NEEDS new parties and new ideas. FPTP is not working for us
See the example I gave you. This isn't new. It is different, but it isn't new. Identical votes share, 10 times difference in seats.
I'm happy with my "toe back in the water bets", after the Theresa May wrong-call mess", which should make something around £500 on the basics, plus surprises, seat bets and lollipops.
The main things I am concerned about is Reform over about 14-15%, or Tories under 50 seats.
Solar is only going to get cheaper, but the US has some tough decisions coming up very soon on whether to continue to press for growing its domestic manufacturing - largely with Chinese manufacturers - or just import everything.
The US has just broken ground on its next-gen nuclear reactors. Bill Gates seems to have been quietly pushing their political buttons for a decade or more to make it happen.
That’s not particularly relevant to the uptake of solar, though. While nuclear will continue to have a place in the energy mix, the price differential is only going to grow.
All the final polls tonight have Labour below the 43% Blair got in 1997 but heading for a bigger majority than then due to the split on the right between Tory and Reform. LDs also below 1997 levels but again may get more seats than then for the same reason, looks like FPTP will really boost the left and hit the right for once tomorrow. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
The MRPs at least suggest the Tories will be over the pyschologically important 100 seats mark though and still clearly the main opposition to a near certain Starmer government
It’s your crooked voting system; lap it up.
FPTP is not crooked, it is just not, to my mind, the best option.
No option is great but a top up system would probably give the conservatives another 100 seats.
And it’s not about you it’s about us.
An aside I’ve always wondered if we could weight votes. The predicted 80 Tories sharing 21% of the 650 votes. So each member vote counts as 136/80 of the total.
It keeps the constituency link and the proportional weight.
I don't really follow your second sentence. I am one of us as well, I don't know what you mean.
Such is the insanity of FPTP, if the opposition is fragmented just so, Labour can get 31% and still have an overwhelming majority of 160
On 31%!
Now. You get this now, but you didn't get it in the days of the Alliance?
tbf we've never had an alignment as insane as this. Also, I have been persuaded of the merits of PR for about three-four years now. You can believe me or not, but this is not some brand new conversion on my part. Our politics NEEDS new parties and new ideas. FPTP is not working for us
Not sure countries with a perpetual coalition are better governed than we are. The Dutch have finally got their shit together after 12 months without a government and the French are about to emulate them. Admittedly both nations have cheerfully subcontracted the important stuff to Brussels so it doesn't matter much but the Israelis don't have that option. If it wasn't for the pressure exerted by Hamas and Hezbollah, stiffening their resolve, they'd have fallen apart years ago.
Will anyone be drinking that special whisky tomorrow night which has been waiting years for a special occasion?
Thinking about the good Glen Garioch if DRoss loses ANME, especially if Rochdale has a good result. An Aberdeenshire whisky seems appropriate. May have another if Jenrick loses, then if Mogg loses, then if Sunak loses …. hic!
Under no circumstances have a shot every time you hear 'worst result since the Great Reform Act', you'll be in a coma by ten past eleven.
I'd avoid doing a shot every time people hear 'world class spanking' as well, for the same reason.
You really think Reform can get 20% and above realistically? Also, didn't you support remain?
I find it hard to believe they're only getting the same level of support as UKIP did in 2015 as a single-issue pressure group, so I'm more inclined to trust the higher end of their polling.
This election is sui generis so it's very hard to predict what will happen on the day.
Yes I did support Remain but I've fully accepted Brexit now.
Conservative internal forecast is that they will hold 80 seats with confidence
80-160 is the range
I can just about believe it. The upper range seems like it relies on both Reform drop and a Tory boost not picked up in the polls, and good efficiency of the vote, but is at least conceivable to me.
Such is the insanity of FPTP, if the opposition is fragmented just so, Labour can get 31% and still have an overwhelming majority of 160
On 31%!
Now. You get this now, but you didn't get it in the days of the Alliance?
tbf we've never had an alignment as insane as this. Also, I have been persuaded of the merits of PR for about three-four years now. You can believe me or not, but this is not some brand new conversion on my part. Our politics NEEDS new parties and new ideas. FPTP is not working for us
Not sure countries with a perpetual coalition are better governed than we are. The Dutch have finally got their shit together after 12 months without a government and the French are about to emulate them. Admittedly both nations have cheerfully subcontracted the important stuff to Brussels so it doesn't matter much but the Israelis don't have that option. If it wasn't for the pressure exerted by Hamas and Hezbollah, stiffening their resolve, they'd have fallen apart years ago.
There’s an argument that we are the worst governed nation in the western world right now. So yeah I think it is fair to look at our electoral system as part of a much needed national overhaul
Such is the insanity of FPTP, if the opposition is fragmented just so, Labour can get 31% and still have an overwhelming majority of 160
On 31%!
Now. You get this now, but you didn't get it in the days of the Alliance?
tbf we've never had an alignment as insane as this. Also, I have been persuaded of the merits of PR for about three-four years now. You can believe me or not, but this is not some brand new conversion on my part. Our politics NEEDS new parties and new ideas. FPTP is not working for us
Not sure countries with a perpetual coalition are better governed than we are. The Dutch have finally got their shit together after 12 months without a government and the French are about to emulate them. Admittedly both nations have cheerfully subcontracted the important stuff to Brussels so it doesn't matter much but the Israelis don't have that option. If it wasn't for the pressure exerted by Hamas and Hezbollah, stiffening their resolve, they'd have fallen apart years ago.
Political culture seems to play as much a role as system, if not more, and that is harder to account for or alter, even if there are ones with aspects we would like to emulate.
As such I favour tinkering in typical British fashion, but my inclination is some kind of multi member constituency PR type hybrid mess would overall be fairer. But I'm very persuadable.
OK let's have some fun. It looks like the final trends are for LAB and CON to slip, and LDs and REF to gain
So let's say that continues and intensifies in the final 24 hours and it's something like
LAB: 36 CON: 19 REF: 20 LDs: 16 GRN: 4
That would produce:
LAB: 443 CON: 63 REF: 26 LIB: 77 GRN: 3
The SNP get 15 seats with almost any result
Let's go a bit crazier and say the slippage is even bigger
LAB: 35 CON: 18 REF: 21 LDs: 16 GRN: 5
Baxtered:
LAB: 436 CON: 55 REF: 38 LDM: 80 GRN: 3
With an opposition this fragmented, and Reform doing so well. Labour can get an ENORMOUS majority on just a third of the vote
It's what our silly system does when you have only one large party and several smaller ones. The smaller ones have more support collectively but it doesn't stop them being overwhelmed. An outcome like that would merely be a slightly less extreme version of what happened to Scotland in 2015.
Indeed, I've been larking about with the Baxter-matic and you can get insane results even with Labour down to 30% if the opposition is perfectly fragmented (and Reform do really well, relatively). ie Labour still have a three figure majority
In the days of the Alliance they won 20 odd seats compared to Labour on 200 odd with almost identical votes because their vote was evenly spread. So much so that if they had hit a figure north of about 37% they would have won nearly all the seats. The voting system is bonkers for many reasons. This is just one of them.
I used to believe in FPTP because it "delivers strong government" and because "the constituency connection with MPs is important"
But being on PB has persuaded me there are PR systems which preserve the constituency link, for starters, and also the idea that FPTP "delivers strong government" is fatuous, in the light of what he have experienced since 2005
So, I am intellectually entirely convinced, and have been for a while. We need PR
Better late than never. Welcome (although I appreciate that welcome is a few years late - sorry)
Going to sleep now as I have a busy day tomorrow (for obvious reasons).
All the final polls tonight have Labour below the 43% Blair got in 1997 but heading for a bigger majority than then due to the split on the right between Tory and Reform. LDs also below 1997 levels but again may get more seats than then for the same reason, looks like FPTP will really boost the left and hit the right for once tomorrow. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
The MRPs at least suggest the Tories will be over the pyschologically important 100 seats mark though and still clearly the main opposition to a near certain Starmer government
It’s your crooked voting system; lap it up.
FPTP is not crooked, it is just not, to my mind, the best option.
No option is great but a top up system would probably give the conservatives another 100 seats.
And it’s not about you it’s about us.
An aside I’ve always wondered if we could weight votes. The predicted 80 Tories sharing 21% of the 650 votes. So each member vote counts as 136/80 of the total.
It keeps the constituency link and the proportional weight.
Hmmm....
Reform gets 15% of the popular vote but no MPs = Reform voters have no voice in Parliament Reform gets 15% of the popular vote and manages to get Nigel Farage over the finishing line = Nigel Farage is now 15% of the Commons for voting purposes
You really think Reform can get 20% and above realistically? Also, didn't you support remain?
I find it hard to believe they're only getting the same level of support as UKIP did in 2015 as a single-issue pressure group, so I'm more inclined to trust the higher end of their polling.
This election is sui generis so it's very hard to predict what will happen on the day.
Yes I did support Remain but I've fully accepted Brexit now.
Care to make a prediction? Just for fun? You have good insights and I’d be interested to know
Such is the insanity of FPTP, if the opposition is fragmented just so, Labour can get 31% and still have an overwhelming majority of 160
On 31%!
Now. You get this now, but you didn't get it in the days of the Alliance?
tbf we've never had an alignment as insane as this. Also, I have been persuaded of the merits of PR for about three-four years now. You can believe me or not, but this is not some brand new conversion on my part. Our politics NEEDS new parties and new ideas. FPTP is not working for us
Not sure countries with a perpetual coalition are better governed than we are. The Dutch have finally got their shit together after 12 months without a government and the French are about to emulate them. Admittedly both nations have cheerfully subcontracted the important stuff to Brussels so it doesn't matter much but the Israelis don't have that option. If it wasn't for the pressure exerted by Hamas and Hezbollah, stiffening their resolve, they'd have fallen apart years ago.
There’s an argument that we are the worst governed nation in the western world right now. l
We must be up against some pretty stiff competition!
I had the experience in recent days of having an interaction with the esteemed broadcaster GBNews. One day I will tell it when the dust settles but man, they can pull a string or two with politicians.
Good grief - what will it be like in here tomorrow night at 10:01pm?
I am planning a tactical nap after work, with the alarm set for 2145.
Cheese, biscuits and some plonk to keep me going. Brandy for medicinal purposes in reserve.
I intend to watch the exit poll, a bit of the chit chat, and then go to bed (probably before the first result.) I've sufficient confidence in the god Curtice that I'll feel that I know the approximate outcome by 10:01pm. One can fill in the details in the morning.
MIght be worth staying up for the first results just past 11pm. No guarantee if they are on track with the exit poll that the rest will be too, but I think you could be confident enough.
Will anyone be drinking that special whisky tomorrow night which has been waiting years for a special occasion?
Thinking about the good Glen Garioch if DRoss loses ANME, especially if Rochdale has a good result. An Aberdeenshire whisky seems appropriate. May have another if Jenrick loses, then if Mogg loses, then if Sunak loses …. hic!
Under no circumstances have a shot every time you hear 'worst result since the Great Reform Act', you'll be in a coma by ten past eleven.
On electoral reform I think Greece had a system where you could make changes, but they took effect 2 elections down the line or something, I guess so you don't immediately benefit? Sounds like an interesting idea, though when you can call early elections that could be gamed.
Good grief - what will it be like in here tomorrow night at 10:01pm?
I am planning a tactical nap after work, with the alarm set for 2145.
Cheese, biscuits and some plonk to keep me going. Brandy for medicinal purposes in reserve.
I intend to watch the exit poll, a bit of the chit chat, and then go to bed (probably before the first result.) I've sufficient confidence in the god Curtice that I'll feel that I know the approximate outcome by 10:01pm. One can fill in the details in the morning.
MIght be worth staying up for the first results just past 11pm. No guarantee if they are on track with the exit poll that the rest will be too, but I think you could be confident enough.
I might change my mind if I feel alert, but I have a busy day tomorrow and am up later than usual tonight so I anticipate that my bed will already be calling by ten o'clock.
Given that he's already 61, this seems like a reasonable conclusion to draw. Renegotiation would take years and it has a vital necessary precondition: a sustained and substantial majority (minimum two-thirds IMHO) of public opinion committed to going back in. The EU member states are not going to want to go through Brexit twice: they need confidence that we won't turn up, stay for a few years being annoying, and then flounce a second time.
Rebuilding sufficient trust to go back in and convincing most of the population to be positive about the project is the work of decades, not months.
Indeed. It also requires unanimous consent from EU member states, and lots of them would want to extract a high price, from the UK or Brussels or both. It would be horrifically painful and even at the end of it, the UK would be risking a last-minute veto from some stroppy member
Starmer is pragmatically correct, it is never going to happen, not in his lifetime or anyone's. It's done. But that doesn't mean we won't come to better arrangements vis a vis mobility and trade, there will be constant tweaks as there are between, say, Switzerland and the EU
And, of course, all this will be rendered meaningless anyway by the various technological changes coming down the line, which will make Brexit seem like a quaint, trivial skirmish compared to a global war
The internal EU politics - especially about subsidies/budgets - strongly suggests to me that, if asked, the EU would say “join the queue to join on the standard terms”.
Is there a queue to join the EU? Who is in that queue?
I just found a pheasant in the freezer that I had forgotten about.
So I'm having pheasant, a decent wine, and maybe an English Sparklng with cheese later, with which I will toast the first post-Election Shadow Cabinet meeting of generation Sunak and the Shysters.
"What's that smell, Rishi?" "We're in a cesspit; the voters shat us down the toilet of history."
Tomorrow I might even offer a couple of hours to Ashfield Labour GOTV; it is touch and go on the markets for this seat.
I just found a pheasant in the freezer that I had forgotten about is close to peak PB.
Particularly from a Labour supporter!! I am looking forward to tomorrow though as we face an election without the spectre of Corbyn, I need not worry that my vote will let him in!
I'd argue that Islington Labour offers competition in that respect. Remember Ed Milliband and his THREE kitchens.
Anyhoo - it is ASHFIELD Labour supporter ; there aren't a lot of options here. The choices are:
- a Tory who has vanished, - Lib Dems who do not exist, - the Ashfield Independent who is on about 15 criminal charges in 2025 that he has fought like Trump to delay until after the election, - the Leeanderthal Man, - Or the real person Labour candidate who has had a career and a job, and is not a Spad in short trousers. And seems quite sane.
It's a bit of a punt as with Starmer nationally, I concede. Since Ashfield Labour has been rather bonkers for a decade or two.
The politics are interesting; I supported Brexit (still do, basically), and levelling up to rebalance the country - to the extent that I joined a political party, the Cons, for the first time ever, as a small way of helping that process.
Then it turned out that the promises were meaningless, and this generation of Tory leadership are a generation of cynical backstabbers.
I left after HS2 was canned, which left £50bn being p*ssed away on a branch line to Birmingham, because all the benefits are about long term capacity, and shifts from airline to rail and freight to rail. They will even burn down their own signature achievements such as they are - more house building, better quality housing over time, major progress on the environmental shift and so on.
Now I want this putrid generation in their permanent political graves, and maybe in another 2 decades the Conservatives can rediscover some values.
I just found a pheasant in the freezer that I had forgotten about.
So I'm having pheasant, a decent wine, and maybe an English Sparklng with cheese later, with which I will toast the first post-Election Shadow Cabinet meeting of generation Sunak and the Shysters.
"What's that smell, Rishi?" "We're in a cesspit; the voters shat us down the toilet of history."
Tomorrow I might even offer a couple of hours to Ashfield Labour GOTV; it is touch and go on the markets for this seat.
I just found a pheasant in the freezer that I had forgotten about is close to peak PB.
Particularly from a Labour supporter!! I am looking forward to tomorrow though as we face an election without the spectre of Corbyn, I need not worry that my vote will let him in!
ASHFIELD Labour supporter ; there aren't a lot of options here. The choices are:
- a Tory who has vanished, - Lib Dems who do not exist, - the Ashfield Independent who is on about 15 criminal charges in 2025 that he has fought like Trump to delay until after the election, - the Leeanderthal Man, - Or the real person Labour candidate who has had a career and a job, and is not a Spad in short trousers. And seems quite sane.
It's a bit of a punt as with Starmer nationally.
The politics are interesting; I supported Brexit (still do, basically), and levelling up to rebalance the country - to the extent that I joined a political party, the Cons, for the first time ever, as a small way of helping that process.
Then it turned out that the promises were meaningless, and this generation of Tory leadership are a generation of cynical backstabbers.
I left after HS2 was canned, which left £50bn being p*ssed away on a branch line to Birmingham, because all the benefits are about long term capacity, and shifts from airline to rail and freight to rail. They will even burn down their own signature achievements such as they are - more house building, better quality housing over time, major progress on the environmental shift and so on.
Now I want this putrid generation in their permanent political graves, and maybe in another 2 decades the Conservatives can rediscover some values.
You really think Reform can get 20% and above realistically? Also, didn't you support remain?
I find it hard to believe they're only getting the same level of support as UKIP did in 2015 as a single-issue pressure group, so I'm more inclined to trust the higher end of their polling.
This election is sui generis so it's very hard to predict what will happen on the day.
Yes I did support Remain but I've fully accepted Brexit now.
Care to make a prediction? Just for fun? You have good insights and I’d be interested to know
Just for fun, I'll go with this, but I keep alternating between this scenario and one where the Tories are comfortably ahead of Reform:
I just found a pheasant in the freezer that I had forgotten about.
So I'm having pheasant, a decent wine, and maybe an English Sparklng with cheese later, with which I will toast the first post-Election Shadow Cabinet meeting of generation Sunak and the Shysters.
"What's that smell, Rishi?" "We're in a cesspit; the voters shat us down the toilet of history."
Tomorrow I might even offer a couple of hours to Ashfield Labour GOTV; it is touch and go on the markets for this seat.
I just found a pheasant in the freezer that I had forgotten about is close to peak PB.
Particularly from a Labour supporter!! I am looking forward to tomorrow though as we face an election without the spectre of Corbyn, I need not worry that my vote will let him in!
ASHFIELD Labour supporter ; there aren't a lot of options here. The choices are:
- a Tory who has vanished, - Lib Dems who do not exist, - the Ashfield Independent who is on about 15 criminal charges in 2025 that he has fought like Trump to delay until after the election, - the Leeanderthal Man, - Or the real person Labour candidate who has had a career and a job, and is not a Spad in short trousers. And seems quite sane.
It's a bit of a punt as with Starmer nationally.
The politics are interesting; I supported Brexit (still do, basically), and levelling up to rebalance the country - to the extent that I joined a political party, the Cons, for the first time ever, as a small way of helping that process.
Then it turned out that the promises were meaningless, and this generation of Tory leadership are a generation of cynical backstabbers.
I left after HS2 was canned, which left £50bn being p*ssed away on a branch line to Birmingham, because all the benefits are about long term capacity, and shifts from airline to rail and freight to rail. They will even burn down their own signature achievements such as they are - more house building, better quality housing over time, major progress on the environmental shift and so on.
Now I want this putrid generation in their permanent political graves, and maybe in another 2 decades the Conservatives can rediscover some values.
"the Leeanderthal Man", LOL.
I get the impression he might even like that.
I don't know - I have a fairly reasonable crosscutting twitter audience, and have been using it for several months, but we don't overlap very much, and I don't normally do local politics.
I find that quite surprising that the Sun have gone a lot bigger on their endorsement of Labour than the Times. I presumed the Sun would be much more tepid.
I find that quite surprising that the Sun have gone a lot bigger on their endorsement of Labour than the Times. I presumed the Sun would be much more tepid.
The Sun is only interested in being seen to pick the winner.
The Sun has some positives for Reform even if it says it can only win a handful of MPs
'Put bluntly, the Tories are exhausted.
They need a period in Opposition to unite around a common set of principles which can finally bring to an end all the years of internal warfare.
It is time for a change.
Nigel Farage's manifesto - lower taxes, less immigration, slashing the size of the bloated State - has struck a chord with millions, including many hard-working voters who supported Boris Johnson in 2019.
But Reform is a one-man band which at best can win only a handful of MPs and can never implement its policies.
The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, are a joke - with a leader who has spent this most depressing of campaigns pulling ridiculous stunts.
Which means that it is time for Labour.
There is no doubt Sir Keir Starmer has fought hard to change his party for the better, even if it is still a work in progress.
I find that quite surprising that the Sun have gone a lot bigger on their endorsement of Labour than the Times. I presumed the Sun would be much more tepid.
The Sun is only interested in being seen to pick the winner.
That may be true, but I presumed they would have gone I think its time for a change, but we aren't massively convinced by Starmer, we are watching you and will be holding you to account. Which is basically what the Times have gone for.
I find that quite surprising that the Sun have gone a lot bigger on their endorsement of Labour than the Times. I presumed the Sun would be much more tepid.
Sun readers are ex Boris Tories, many now voting Reform or Labour, Times readers are Sunak Tories or LDs largely
Final Survation Poll of the 2024 General Election:
18 point Labour lead
Labour: 37.6% Conservative: 19.9% Reform UK: 17.0% Liberal Democrats: 12.1% Green Party: 7.2% Scottish National Party: 3.0% Plaid Cymru: 0.6% Other: 2.4%
Based on telephone interviews of 1,679 respondents living in Great Britain aged 18+. Fieldwork was conducted between the 1st and 3rd of July 2024.
We have also updated our MRP model with the data from this final telephone poll. Changes below vs. the 2nd July 2024 update.
Probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 475 (-9) Conservative: 64 (-) Liberal Democrats: 60 (-1) Scottish National Party: 13 (+3) Reform UK: 13 (+6) Green Party: 3 (-) Plaid Cymru: 4 (+1)
survation.com/final-survatio…
13 quite high for Reform, if correct though it would be absurd that Labour get 73% of MPs on barely more than a third of the vote. Might finally start to make some Tories question if FPTP still works for them and look towards PR, with PR on the Survation figures Tories and Reform would have the same number of MPs combined as Labour do
Final Survation Poll of the 2024 General Election:
18 point Labour lead
Labour: 37.6% Conservative: 19.9% Reform UK: 17.0% Liberal Democrats: 12.1% Green Party: 7.2% Scottish National Party: 3.0% Plaid Cymru: 0.6% Other: 2.4%
Based on telephone interviews of 1,679 respondents living in Great Britain aged 18+. Fieldwork was conducted between the 1st and 3rd of July 2024.
We have also updated our MRP model with the data from this final telephone poll. Changes below vs. the 2nd July 2024 update.
Probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 475 (-9) Conservative: 64 (-) Liberal Democrats: 60 (-1) Scottish National Party: 13 (+3) Reform UK: 13 (+6) Green Party: 3 (-) Plaid Cymru: 4 (+1)
survation.com/final-survatio…
13 quite high for Reform, if correct though it would be absurd that Labour get 73% of MPs on barely more than a third of the vote. Might finally start to make some Tories question if FPTP still works for them and look towards PR, with PR on the Survation figures Tories and Reform would have the same number of MPs combined as Labour do
As @Richard_Tyndall has often pointed out, it is a mistake to think that voting patterns (and parties) would remain unchanged in the event of PR.
The lack of enthusiasm for Labour at this election really is striking. Among those who plan to vote Labour tomorrow, the party is much less well-liked than in 2019, 2017 or 2015 (no data before that). Quite a flimsy voter coalition that could unravel in the absence of results.
There is a fascinating spread of Reform predictions, from ahead of the Conservatives and second on vote share on 20+%, to behind the LibDems in fourth and in the low teens.
Generally, the keener the writer on Reform, the more optimistic their prediction. And vice versa.
I find that quite surprising that the Sun have gone a lot bigger on their endorsement of Labour than the Times. I presumed the Sun would be much more tepid.
Sun readers are ex Boris Tories, many now voting Reform or Labour, Times readers are Sunak Tories or LDs largely
You like polls. Opinion polling suggests even the Telegraph is read by more Labour voters than Tory voters.
rather stupid of Starmer to say he wouldn't rejoin the EU in his lifetime. No one obliged him to say anything and now he's just lost himself a large cohort of voters without a good reason
rather stupid of Starmer to say he wouldn't rejoin the EU in his lifetime. No one obliged him to say anything and now he's just lost himself a large cohort of voters without a good reason
Final prediction: Labour 35% Reform 21% Tories 19%, 10% libdems, 5% Green, 3% SNP
Hope not. I shorted Reform on the spreads at 16.7%.
(Now available with a 16.9 bid if any fellow lemmings want to join me at the cliff edge).
I have a bit of bias for them, tbh But still I think the polls are undercounting them, because I think many reform would be voters do not have high trust and so many won't do opinion polls
US President Joe Biden worked to calm senior Democrats and staff on his campaign on Wednesday, as reports suggested he was weighing his future after his disastrous debate with Donald Trump last week.
Mr Biden held a closed-door lunch with Vice-President Kamala Harris at the White House as speculation mounted over whether she would replace him as the party’s candidate in November’s election.
The pair then joined a call with the broader Democratic campaign where Mr Biden made clear he would remain in the race and Ms Harris reiterated her support. “I'm the nominee of the Democratic Party. No one's pushing me out. I'm not leaving," he told the call, a source told BBC News.
rather stupid of Starmer to say he wouldn't rejoin the EU in his lifetime. No one obliged him to say anything and now he's just lost himself a large cohort of voters without a good reason
It doesn't cost him anything because nobody is going to not vote Labour over it.
He's done it because it cockblocks the tories from running a 24 Hours To Save Our Precious Brexit campaign. What SKS actually believes or intends at this point is irrelevant. Everything is subservient to getting elected and he's decided he isn't going to give the tories a chink of daylight on Brexit.
Final prediction: Labour 35% Reform 21% Tories 19%, 10% libdems, 5% Green, 3% SNP
Hope not. I shorted Reform on the spreads at 16.7%.
(Now available with a 16.9 bid if any fellow lemmings want to join me at the cliff edge).
I have a bit of bias for them, tbh But still I think the polls are undercounting them, because I think many reform would be voters do not have high trust and so many won't do opinion polls
I think it's a definite possibility, they're a right bugger to call. If I lose on that I lose - am very happy indeed with my overall GE portfolio
The most fun long odds (which I will define as over 20) Betfair bet atm is back next permanent Tory leader to come in 2025 - although it's phrased entirely differently as being on the day Sunak stops being Tory leader that's not what the actual rules are. I'm on at 40 and I reckon you could probably get close to if not better than 100. Particulary since it will be either exitable or "write offable" in a few weeks, even though you'll have to wait until January to actually collect.
Remember that this would have won for the Howard/Cameron transition.
However B&A will be a great sign of whether RFM's appeal is as wide as BXP - they should be a comfortable second, and B&B is a sign for (a) how much Con has lost to Labour in the south, and whether RFM are likely to underperform as a whole (they should be within 10%). Broxbourne should also be a 3 way marginal.
Get ready to load up on your RFM bets (either way) by 12:15 tomorrow.
Why would certain members of the great British public lie when contacted by polling companies? What would be the reasons that they would do that?
You have to be terminally hebephrenic not to have your phone set up so that random timewasters like polling cos cannot get through to you, so the people they do get through to on the phone don't know whether it's Christmas or Easter. That leaves self selected tossers on internet panels, and any statistics textbook I ever read was pretty clear about the importance of RANDOM samples. People earnestly studying polls these days are like neo Ptolemaic astronomers debating which current model most accurately portrays how the sun and planets revolve around the earth.
Who do we need to vote for to improve the standards of your statistics text books ??
You what? How can a non-random sample of a population represent that population?
A sample needs to be representative not random.
That’s a major reason why polls are less shit now than they were 30 years ago
The sample frame (the thing you take the sample from) needs to be representative. The sampling method (from that frame) needs to be done in such a way that the proportion in the sample matches that in the sample frame. Entirely at random is a good way of doing the latter.
However B&A will be a great sign of whether RFM's appeal is as wide as BXP - they should be a comfortable second, and B&B is a sign for (a) how much Con has lost to Labour in the south, and whether RFM are likely to underperform as a whole (they should be within 10%). Broxbourne should also be a 3 way marginal.
Get ready to load up on your RFM bets (either way) by 12:15 tomorrow.
Reform should be strong in all of those seats if they are having a good night
However B&A will be a great sign of whether RFM's appeal is as wide as BXP - they should be a comfortable second, and B&B is a sign for (a) how much Con has lost to Labour in the south, and whether RFM are likely to underperform as a whole (they should be within 10%). Broxbourne should also be a 3 way marginal.
Get ready to load up on your RFM bets (either way) by 12:15 tomorrow.
Thanks for bird-dogging the early bird constituencies.
BUT must demure from your opinion "H&SS not interesting" surely the swings and roundabouts 2019 > 2024 (in seat that's got one more Sutherland ward but otherwise unchanged) will provide some early indications of whatever they're indicating?
Comments
I'm excited!!
Not long now.
On 31%!
But if you believe ramping sourced to "one activist" then you're an idiot.
My view remains that RefUK will underperform polls, and Cons will outperform. Something like 13% and 28% respectively.
80-160 is the range
LAB: 39%
CON: 25%
REF: 13%
LD: 13%:
GRN: 4%
I reckon that's bollocks now. CON too high and REF way too low
I'm going to make a new OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION 2.0
LAB: 38%
CON: 22%
REF: 18%
LD: 11%
GRN: 5%
Baxtered:
LAB: 451
CON: 81
REF: 9
LD: 68
GRN: 3
Labour 35% Reform 21% Tories 19%, 10% libdems, 5% Green, 3% SNP
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c120CRw_tdw
My favourite was a relative who bought a whole salmon about 3ft long, and froze it without portioning. It lurked at the bottom of the freezer for months like Jaws before they worked out that they had to either a) Thaw it and live on salmon for a week or b) Admit the problem and use a hacksaw to chunk it whilst still frozen.
And it’s not about you it’s about us.
An aside
I’ve always wondered if we could weight votes. The predicted 80 Tories sharing 21% of the 650 votes. So each member vote counts as 136/80 of the total.
It keeps the constituency link and the proportional weight.
But being on PB has persuaded me there are PR systems which preserve the constituency link, for starters, and also the idea that FPTP "delivers strong government" is fatuous, in the light of what he have experienced since 2005
So, I am intellectually entirely convinced, and have been for a while. We need PR
The main things I am concerned about is Reform over about 14-15%, or Tories under 50 seats.
While nuclear will continue to have a place in the energy mix, the price differential is only going to grow.
Nothing personal in this, you seem like a sound chap, and you speak honestly on most things. But, fuck the Tories, soz boz
This election is sui generis so it's very hard to predict what will happen on the day.
Yes I did support Remain but I've fully accepted Brexit now.
As such I favour tinkering in typical British fashion, but my inclination is some kind of multi member constituency PR type hybrid mess would overall be fairer. But I'm very persuadable.
Going to sleep now as I have a busy day tomorrow (for obvious reasons).
Reform gets 15% of the popular vote but no MPs = Reform voters have no voice in Parliament
Reform gets 15% of the popular vote and manages to get Nigel Farage over the finishing line = Nigel Farage is now 15% of the Commons for voting purposes
This might be viewed as sub-optimal.
Anyhoo - it is ASHFIELD Labour supporter
- a Tory who has vanished,
- Lib Dems who do not exist,
- the Ashfield Independent who is on about 15 criminal charges in 2025 that he has fought like Trump to delay until after the election,
- the Leeanderthal Man,
- Or the real person Labour candidate who has had a career and a job, and is not a Spad in short trousers. And seems quite sane.
It's a bit of a punt as with Starmer nationally, I concede. Since Ashfield Labour has been rather bonkers for a decade or two.
The politics are interesting; I supported Brexit (still do, basically), and levelling up to rebalance the country - to the extent that I joined a political party, the Cons, for the first time ever, as a small way of helping that process.
Then it turned out that the promises were meaningless, and this generation of Tory leadership are a generation of cynical backstabbers.
I left after HS2 was canned, which left £50bn being p*ssed away on a branch line to Birmingham, because all the benefits are about long term capacity, and shifts from airline to rail and freight to rail. They will even burn down their own signature achievements such as they are - more house building, better quality housing over time, major progress on the environmental shift and so on.
Now I want this putrid generation in their permanent political graves, and maybe in another 2 decades the Conservatives can rediscover some values.
"David Dimbleby gives his stark analysis ahead of the UK General Election | Newscast"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cwifPU95j8
I get the impression he might even like that.
Lab: 34%
Reform: 22%
Con: 19%
LD: 15%
Green: 4%
SNP: 3%
18 point Labour lead
Labour: 37.6%
Conservative: 19.9%
Reform UK: 17.0%
Liberal Democrats: 12.1%
Green Party: 7.2%
Scottish National Party: 3.0%
Plaid Cymru: 0.6%
Other: 2.4%
Based on telephone interviews of 1,679 respondents living in Great Britain aged 18+. Fieldwork was conducted between the 1st and 3rd of July 2024.
We have also updated our MRP model with the data from this final telephone poll. Changes below vs. the 2nd July 2024 update.
Probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 475 (-9)
Conservative: 64 (-)
Liberal Democrats: 60 (-1)
Scottish National Party: 13 (+3)
Reform UK: 13 (+6)
Green Party: 3 (-)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (+1)
survation.com/final-survatio…
It might be a long night tomorrow! 😈
This means their most optimistic scenario tomorrow is winning just 140 seats - half of their 2019 seats
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1808627120492486946
https://www.thetimes.com/comment/the-times-view/article/the-times-view-on-labour-in-power-leap-in-the-dark-sppjn6q5f
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/28935096/its-time-for-a-change/
https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1918629/general-election-vote-tory-labour-power
(Now available with a 16.9 bid if any fellow lemmings want to join me at the cliff edge).
'Put bluntly, the Tories are exhausted.
They need a period in Opposition to unite around a common set of principles which can finally bring to an end all the years of internal warfare.
It is time for a change.
Nigel Farage's manifesto - lower taxes, less immigration, slashing the size of the bloated State - has struck a chord with millions, including many hard-working voters who supported Boris Johnson in 2019.
But Reform is a one-man band which at best can win only a handful of MPs and can never implement its policies.
The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, are a joke - with a leader who has spent this most depressing of campaigns pulling ridiculous stunts.
Which means that it is time for Labour.
There is no doubt Sir Keir Starmer has fought hard to change his party for the better, even if it is still a work in progress.
The anti-Semitism that was rife under Jeremy Corbyn is largely gone, and Sir Keir has distanced himself from crazy Marxist Corbynista policies and MPs....'
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/28935096/its-time-for-a-change/
So all of his titles have their bases covered.
Their lead: Darren Jones, Labour’s Shadow Secretary to the Treasury, has been recorded secretly speculating about reforming the council tax system
Shocking stuff!
The lack of enthusiasm for Labour at this election really is striking. Among those who plan to vote Labour tomorrow, the party is much less well-liked than in 2019, 2017 or 2015 (no data before that). Quite a flimsy voter coalition that could unravel in the absence of results.
https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1808482446951797043
Generally, the keener the writer on Reform, the more optimistic their prediction. And vice versa.
But still I think the polls are undercounting them, because I think many reform would be voters do not have high trust and so many won't do opinion polls
Mr Biden held a closed-door lunch with Vice-President Kamala Harris at the White House as speculation mounted over whether she would replace him as the party’s candidate in November’s election.
The pair then joined a call with the broader Democratic campaign where Mr Biden made clear he would remain in the race and Ms Harris reiterated her support. “I'm the nominee of the Democratic Party. No one's pushing me out. I'm not leaving," he told the call, a source told BBC News.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crgrwgnvqgvo
He's done it because it cockblocks the tories from running a 24 Hours To Save Our Precious Brexit campaign. What SKS actually believes or intends at this point is irrelevant. Everything is subservient to getting elected and he's decided he isn't going to give the tories a chink of daylight on Brexit.
The most fun long odds (which I will define as over 20) Betfair bet atm is back next permanent Tory leader to come in 2025 - although it's phrased entirely differently as being on the day Sunak stops being Tory leader that's not what the actual rules are. I'm on at 40 and I reckon you could probably get close to if not better than 100. Particulary since it will be either exitable or "write offable" in a few weeks, even though you'll have to wait until January to actually collect.
Remember that this would have won for the Howard/Cameron transition.
Blyth & Ashington
Houghton & Sunderland South
Basildon & Billericay
Broxbourne
H&SS not interesting.
However B&A will be a great sign of whether RFM's appeal is as wide as BXP - they should be a comfortable second, and B&B is a sign for (a) how much Con has lost to Labour in the south, and whether RFM are likely to underperform as a whole (they should be within 10%). Broxbourne should also be a 3 way marginal.
Get ready to load up on your RFM bets (either way) by 12:15 tomorrow.
BUT must demure from your opinion "H&SS not interesting" surely the swings and roundabouts 2019 > 2024 (in seat that's got one more Sutherland ward but otherwise unchanged) will provide some early indications of whatever they're indicating?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80xjne8ryxo
Brutal cannon fodder approach from Russia.
Sounds like the end could be near.