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People tell pollsters duff info – politicalbetting.com
People tell pollsters duff info – politicalbetting.com
Surveys are an imperfect measure of turnout as people overestimate likelihood and we may still be more likely to interview the politically engagedBut looking at the % telling us they are 10/10 certain to vote is a useful relative measure to gauge enthusiasm between elections ?
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On turnout it just seems so easy for it to drop to below 2001 levels, if lots of Tories are too upset to come out. Maybe we'll stay in the 60s, but my gut says that's it.
Which the Tories shoudl welcome - it would mean this could be a 2001 election instead of 1997, and so faster on road to recovery.
Late swing and differential turnout provide handy excuses for what could easily be sampling or modelling or assumptions failure.
The only question is whether these adjustments are sufficient and who has got them most accurately. But none of them are going to make a material difference with a lead like this.
(quickly heads off to Wikipedia to see if Colonel Sanders is still alive)
Why are there so many empty seats at court no 1 Wimbledon in the match between Paolini and Minnen?
"Tom Chatfield
@tomachatfield
@Wimbledon - one of the greatest sports events in world. Thousands queue but can’t get in, millions miss out in the ballot, yet on Day 2 when a Brit enters a 5th set on centre court, it’s half empty?! Address the empty seats and fix the resale process! Its broken. #Wimbledon"
https://x.com/tomachatfield/status/1808235095406567890
1. Labour disproportionately loses. There's not that much enthusiasm for Starmer, merely resigned acceptance.
2. GOTV matters. If turnout is low, then ground game is more important, and the ability to get your vote out is more important.
3. Parties with older voters do better - probably a net positive for both Reform and the Conservatives.
Top of the head: I think it means that the Conservatives and Reform outperform, Labour underperforms, and the LDs do well in places where they have lots of tellers and knocker-uppers. It makes the first 40-odd seats easier, but the next 40 much harder.
Of course, the next question is: will this have impacted postal voting? Also, will voter ID laws have a further dampening effect?
Women especially. Other women died to ensure they got the vote. They probably feel bad if they are actually forced to say, "Emmeline Pankhurst? She could've stayed in bed really. I can't be bothered voting."
https://x.com/CountyChamp/status/1808561225602601277
@ydoethur doing cartwheels I expect.
The real revelation is that, for various complicated reasons, the amount of variability is essentially a tunable parameter.
Who still polls by phone?
But it was a match for the ages. What a last over.
And 100,000 watching the livestream...
Labour is now polling at its lowest point since December 2021.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
I suppose an alternative would be to use the actual declaration times from last time which I have on my 2019 running totals spreadsheet, (modified according to take account of boundary changes).
Lab 449
Con 91
LD 66
SNP 20
Plaid 3
Green 2
Ref 1
Labour 425
Tories 105
He's older than Biden. No chance he's VP.
Is there another Sanders?
Colonel Sanders? He'd be amazing as VP, but I think he's even older (deader).
Edit - Great minds think alike.
Still think Colonel Sanders would be a great VP.
Most importantly, because they have been asking people for a long time, they can look at changes in vote for particular demographics.
The tickets will also have limited appeal for resale if people are leaving when there's only one, comparatively low profile, match left to play.
Especially with the media and places like this lobbing things like "racist" and "fascist" at the party freely.
I am quite careful about who I tell I am likely going to vote Reform to.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20474120.
My grandparents when they lived in Surrey used to go up every evening during Wimbledon. They said they always got free tickets through that system and would go in and watch some excellent matches.
Mind you, that was sixty years ago. It may be different now, but it seemed a great idea to me.
But who are the remaining phone pollsters? And do they have much lower Reform vote shares?
(the question is, of course, whether it'll actually do much to help...)
I trust everyone on this site, lurkers and all; who can vote tomorrow is going to do so?
Don't assume your party is home and dry, even in Bootle - your vote DOES count.
Don't assume there's no point, they're all the same. That's not true really is it now.
And if you do think the above, and truly think there is no point, go out and vote anyway. A nice stroll on a nice (Well......?) July day will do wonders for your well being.
Very white, old and conservative area.
I can see Con slumping to the low
30s % and UKIP got 21.5% in 2015
50/1 looks great value
Conservative - assuming tomorrow is not an ELE, then they could still have further to go before bottoming out. Next year's locals are the county councils, which the Cons mostly held on to in 2021. Cons could also lose ground in Scotland and Wales in 2026
Labour - In Westminster terms this is probably as good as it gets, but peak Labour is likely to be winning back Holyrood in 2026
SNP - Holyrood 2026 is likely to be the bottom, but also depends on what happens with Branchform
LD - On the up but not necessarily at the top. The LDs had a big breakthrough in 1997,but also gained seats in 2001 and 2005
Reform - The key challenge is turning a pressure group into a real party. Should be lots of opportunities as they currently have few elected politicians.
Green - A Labour government gives them a chance to challenge from the Left
Plaid - Lab controlling both Westminster and Cardiff Bay should give them opportunities
The latest polling for the French Assembly is moving away from a majority being on the cards at all for RN, even if they somehow allied with LR. The ‘front républicain’ not dead yet.
https://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/info-rtl-sondage-legislatives-2024-le-rassemblement-national-en-tete-mais-sans-majorite-absolue-7900400562
RN: 190-220
NFP: 159-183
Ensemble: 110-135
LR: 30-50
I have no idea who could possibly govern out of that, or who would want to. Attal may be able to stay on by default as some sort of zombie minority government as both NFP and RN look instead to the presidential election.
"Rotherham Borough Council's Strategic Director of Children and Young People's Services, Joyce Thacker"
Perhaps if she had spent a little less time worrying about people's party affiliations and more worrying about rampant sex abuse she would not have had to resign in disgrace.
Sit back, relax and partake of the popcorn.
Agreed that it won't affect the Lab majority, but might well have an impact on the scale of that majority, or on who becomes the official opposition.
Lab 365
Con 201
LD 30
SNP 25
PC 3
Green 3
Ref 5
PA estimated declaration times in chronological order
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/estimated-declaration-times-general-election-093817984.html
PA estimated declaration times in alphabetical order
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/estimated-declaration-times-general-election-092322057.html
AIUI bump stocks - as used in the 2017 Las Vegas slaughter - have just been made legal again. One 64 year old bloke fired 1000+ rounds in 10 minutes, killing 61 and injuring 400+ people directly. He also had 20kg of explosive.*
And there are places where they have all kinds of major weapons around. Plus the police are militarised with cast off army stock.
* On October 1, 2017, a mass shooting occurred when 64-year-old Stephen Paddock opened fire on the crowd attending the Route 91 Harvest music festival on the Las Vegas Strip in Nevada from his 32nd-floor suites in the Mandalay Bay hotel. He fired more than 1,000 rounds, killing 60 people[a] and wounding at least 413. The ensuing panic brought the total number of injured to approximately 867.
...
Paddock was found to have fired a total of 1,058 rounds from fifteen of the firearms: 1,049 from twelve AR-15-style rifles, eight from two AR-10-style rifles, and the round used to kill himself from the Smith & Wesson revolver.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Las_Vegas_shooting
Although to be fair it wasn’t a scheduled match on court No.1
It’s only because both Alcarez and Raducanu demolished their opponents, especially Emma, that they put another match on at the last minute - literally announced after Emma had won.
Labour candidate to pay £11,000 to unfairly sacked ex-girlfriend
Khalid Mahmood, a Birmingham MP for more than 20 years, described his former adviser Elaina Cohen as a ‘first-class idiot’ to Keir Starmer
A Labour parliamentary candidate must pay a senior adviser who used to be his girlfriend £11,000 after describing her to Sir Keir Starmer as a “first-class idiot”.
Khalid Mahmood was found to have unfairly sacked Elaina Cohen after she sent him a series of messages accusing him of being “cruel” and “bullying”. Cohen was also said to have described the 62-year-old former shadow defence minister as “spiteful” and a “womaniser”.
An employment tribunal was told that Mahmood, who is standing in the general election as the Labour candidate for Birmingham Perry Barr, sacked Cohen for allegedly disrespecting and intimidating him.
The tribunal in central London ruled that by overseeing Cohen’s disciplinary process himself and deciding to fire her, Mahmood treated her unfairly.
However, while Cohen was originally awarded more than £50,000 in compensation for her treatment after successfully suing Mahmood, that figure has now been cut by 75 per cent to £11,729 after the tribunal found that she had exhibited “blameworthy” conduct.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/law/article/labour-mp-khalid-mahmood-ex-girlfriend-adviser-hfvtf3smz
A Harvard study found people taking semaglutide were significantly more likely to develop a rare and irreversible eye condition
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcare/article/blindness-fears-over-weight-loss-drug-ozempic-jjhcfrq25
Don't get your meat from the same place you get your bread.
Aside from that the choices I have tomorrow are :
The Incumbent SNP bloke : never knocked my door even during the 2-3 campaigns they've 'fought', zero local presence, no sign of even having been here rather than Westminster.
The Labour Guy : wealthy background (poor constituency), clearly an up-and-comer who will possibly 'go places', but again - no sign of them ever having set foot here or even knowing where 'here' is.
The Green Guy : no chance of being elected, but has spent time answering questions from locals and lives in the area.
Various others (reform/tory/LD/communist/whatever): no chance of winning, and zero sign of even knowing they're standing, let alone where.
I'm not terribly inspired at this late stage. Throw my vote away on The Green Guy just because he's shown willing?
"It's a miracle", "will transform millions of lives worldwide", "everyone is taking it now".
Then...
Biden tells campaign staff: ‘No one is pushing me out ... I’m not leaving’ – live
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/jul/03/biden-debate-democrats-kamala-harris-election-updates
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/03/opinions/uk-election-keir-starmer-prime-minister-tony-blair-collins/index.html
Missed this, since a foreign publication...
That’s a major reason why polls are less shit now than they were 30 years ago
So just Survation after 9 and Ipsos tomorrow
Another example of Wimbledon's brokenness:
Yesterday we had tickets for Court No. 2 - initially the order of play looked OK with Jack Draper and Ons Jabeur both featuring. However, Murray's withdrawal meant that the only match featuring a Brit got moved onto Centre, and later on the Jabeur match was also moved.
Meanwhile court 3 (which has unreserved seating) offered both Boulter *and* Norrie matches. Plenty of good first round tennis on outside courts to be had too.
The upshot of this was that across the entire day we spent less an hour in our purchased seats on 2, and the rest of the time watching better tennis elsewhere (mainly court 3).
And because of the way the system works, our seats would've been empty all that time. Lots of other people with tickets for court 2 had a similar idea. Looking at the matches across all courts throughout the day, the purportedly 3rd most prestigious court arguably had the worst lineup of all.
A part of me feels bad about this - taking up a seat that could've gone to somebody with just a ground pass, while my own seat sat empty - but the responsibility surely lies with the schedulers and the system, both of which are awful.
Tickets are all digital these days. The Wimbledon App could easily work out if a spectator isn't in their seat and alert stewards to this fact so they can reallocate it until such time as the ticket holder wants to retake their place, or not!
What I didn't anticipate when this formed part of my reasoning for predicting a hung Parliament was that Reform would become so buoyant and that their vote wouldn't simply deflate to Brexit Party levels, and that tactical voting might occur on quite the scale that the opinion surveys appear to be suggesting. Both Reform and the Lib Dems (whose voter age profiles are not as skewed towards Boomers as are the Tories', but are nonetheless greyer than Labour's,) are peeling off crucial voters and making the Tories' situation considerably worse than it already was.
Nonetheless, I can't help but think (and I don't believe that this is simply my natural pessimism asserting itself) that some of the more extreme predictions of Tory implosion won't be borne out, simply because their residual support is skewed so heavily towards those most likely to bother to vote. It wouldn't take much - a small fraction of the Reform defectors wobbling in the polling booth, fewer young people bothering on the day than the pollsters think will be the case - for the Conservatives to save a meaningful number of seats and modestly outperform (very low) expectations.
In that context, a result something like Labour 410, Con 130, LD 60, SNP 20 would not be too surprising.
Especially if "past vote" is a major factor in the pollsters' calculations.
Natasha Korecki
@natashakorecki
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@natashakorecki
Follow up question in news briefing: If the president is jet lagged 12 days after overseas travel, doesn't that raise its own issues?
Story from May 2nd 1997
He (John Major) also secured a room in the Cabinet Office for them to store larger items so that they could be moved after the election: "They were (understandably) keen to avoid having a removal van seen in or near Downing Street." This plan was thwarted on polling day "when I got a panicked call from the press office to say that there was a removal van in Downing Street." It turned out that another group of civil servants had decided it would be a nice quiet day to shift furniture in Whitehall.
But, I truly have no idea.