35,000 casualties a month would be completely unsustainable. The fact that the situation is being sustained tells you that the 1,200/day figure is bullshit.
Apparently the Tories own internal forecast is that they’re confident of holding 80 seats and that there’s a further 60 in play.
Morning all! Happy changeover day! Yeah was looking at this last night. Expectations management? In which case they reckon towards top end of that and hope for a few more - 130plus??
What's the best source for all the results down to an individual candidate level? I.e. is there a spreadsheet that people will be filling in which doesn't just group "others" together?
The lack of enthusiasm for Labour at this election really is striking. Among those who plan to vote Labour tomorrow, the party is much less well-liked than in 2019, 2017 or 2015 (no data before that). Quite a flimsy voter coalition that could unravel in the absence of results.
A few has emerged that the voters fall into two blocks: LLDG and ConRef. Actually I think its more Con/Lab versus none of the above.
It seems quite regional: RefUK in East and North with Lib Dems in South and West. We have not discussed thus because the demographics are so different: ABC going Lib Dem in the South, RefUK getting CDE voters elsewhere.
However this is mangling the previous Tory voter coalition, and squeezing them from both red wall and blue wall.
Labour seem set for a landslide with less than a third of the electorate. There is little enthusiasm for SKS's rather thin lipped managerialism.
The Tories, however, are absolutely loathed, detested, and their voter base now reduced to the absolute core vote.
However, Labour have very little room for manoeuvre and without demonstrable progress within the next few months, they too will quickly become just as unpopular as the Tories.
The none of the above parties will be make big advances in the locals next spring.
SkS had better have something substantial up his sleeve, or the very basis of British democracy will come under challenge. Bullshit and bluster can not just be replaced with minimal competence, welcome though that would be.
I think despite a massive Labour majority, indeed partly because of it, politics is going to become increasingly turbulent.
Yes, think I agree with that.
The 'competent managerialism' may work for a bit but the structural problems will ultimately remain. This is why I think that a new force will enter politics, one that purports to have 'solutions', and will be quite radical as well. I just don't believe that bland centrism can deliver.
The problem is the "radical" people just piss and shout and then dissolve into incompetence.
What you really need is someone serious and competent with a good team behind them dedicated to serious reform: like renegotiating the web of international asylum treaties and HR law.
In the 1970s, you had a number of serious research outfits - like the Center for Policy Studies and the Institute of Fiscal Studies - who pushed back hard against the Keynesian consensus.
Sadly, we don't have a similar interest in policy by politicians anymore.
Of course. It’s simply payback for the party and politicians that put their own ideological obsessions ahead of the interests of our country. Those bunch of mendacious incompetents deserve every defeat that’s incoming.
That we will have a government with a huge majority backed by barely a third of the voters, a quarter of whom would rather have voted for someone else, we can worry about later.
I finally decided to register after reading your comments for months. Mainly, I just wanted to say thanks for making it so easy for me to stay informed about all the various polling - and the insightful commentary you good people contribute around the data.
I hope you all have a fun election night. I'll be following along for sure.
Unless I have missed it, it seems deepfakes are the dogs that haven't barked in this election. A few months ago I was expecting the campaign to be full of videos of Starmer castrating a minor aide over his chai being too milky, or Sunak eating indigenous Moldovans in place of his favoured sandwich, which a few days later were exposed as the twisted creation of a Dura_Ace-type figure operating from the dark web.
The relative absence of such videos tells me one of two things: (a) our security services are doing a decent job of information security; or (b) said videos are now good enough and we are collectively gullible enough that they haven't been spotted.
So long as The Blob is able to transfer power seamlessly from Sunak to Starmer, they are happy. The Deepfakes would only have been deployed if the people started looking like voting for someone dangerous, like Davey.
Wait a second… are you trying to tell me that all those clips of Davey juming off things were actually real?
The lack of enthusiasm for Labour at this election really is striking. Among those who plan to vote Labour tomorrow, the party is much less well-liked than in 2019, 2017 or 2015 (no data before that). Quite a flimsy voter coalition that could unravel in the absence of results.
A few has emerged that the voters fall into two blocks: LLDG and ConRef. Actually I think its more Con/Lab versus none of the above.
It seems quite regional: RefUK in East and North with Lib Dems in South and West. We have not discussed thus because the demographics are so different: ABC going Lib Dem in the South, RefUK getting CDE voters elsewhere.
However this is mangling the previous Tory voter coalition, and squeezing them from both red wall and blue wall.
Labour seem set for a landslide with less than a third of the electorate. There is little enthusiasm for SKS's rather thin lipped managerialism.
The Tories, however, are absolutely loathed, detested, and their voter base now reduced to the absolute core vote.
However, Labour have very little room for manoeuvre and without demonstrable progress within the next few months, they too will quickly become just as unpopular as the Tories.
The none of the above parties will be make big advances in the locals next spring.
SkS had better have something substantial up his sleeve, or the very basis of British democracy will come under challenge. Bullshit and bluster can not just be replaced with minimal competence, welcome though that would be.
I think despite a massive Labour majority, indeed partly because of it, politics is going to become increasingly turbulent.
Yes, think I agree with that.
The 'competent managerialism' may work for a bit but the structural problems will ultimately remain. This is why I think that a new force will enter politics, one that purports to have 'solutions', and will be quite radical as well. I just don't believe that bland centrism can deliver.
The problem is the "radical" people just piss and shout and then dissolve into incompetence.
What you really need is someone serious and competent with a good team behind them dedicated to serious reform: like renegotiating the web of international asylum treaties and HR law.
Paragraph 1 describes Johnson.
Paragraph 2 describes a former Senior lawyer... and I have an idea and it's not Suella.
35,000 casualties a month would be completely unsustainable. The fact that the situation is being sustained tells you that the 1,200/day figure is bullshit.
Sadly, that is probably right.
That said: the Russians advance around Karhiv does seem to have stalled, and they have taken some pretty horrible casualties.
Until Ukraine can no longer lose however many a day they are losing with less than a quarter of Russias population. That is how attrition works.
Nah.
As Russia herself proved in the Second World War, the proportion of people willing to give up their lives to repel an invader is far greater than the number of people willing to give them up for territorial gains.
And as Russia found out in the First War, and in the Wagner rebellion, eventually troops mutiny.
35,000 casualties a month would be completely unsustainable. The fact that the situation is being sustained tells you that the 1,200/day figure is bullshit.
Why is it completely unsustainable? The Soviet Union lost 18k per day (soldiers and civilians). True, that was a larger war, but it shows the scale in small in comparison.
Though an important issue is that Russia is no longer an agrarian society, so the cannon-fodder Russia is sending to the front will eventually start to be from industries that *really* hurt their economy.
What scale of casualties (dead and injured) do you think Russia is suffering?
Unless I have missed it, it seems deepfakes are the dogs that haven't barked in this election. A few months ago I was expecting the campaign to be full of videos of Starmer castrating a minor aide over his chai being too milky, or Sunak eating indigenous Moldovans in place of his favoured sandwich, which a few days later were exposed as the twisted creation of a Dura_Ace-type figure operating from the dark web.
The relative absence of such videos tells me one of two things: (a) our security services are doing a decent job of information security; or (b) said videos are now good enough and we are collectively gullible enough that they haven't been spotted.
So long as The Blob is able to transfer power seamlessly from Sunak to Starmer, they are happy. The Deepfakes would only have been deployed if the people started looking like voting for someone dangerous, like Davey.
That makes sense, having watched too many stupid stunt videos of Davey from the campaign. He’s either auditioning to be the next Peter Duncan, or they’re all fake.
The lack of enthusiasm for Labour at this election really is striking. Among those who plan to vote Labour tomorrow, the party is much less well-liked than in 2019, 2017 or 2015 (no data before that). Quite a flimsy voter coalition that could unravel in the absence of results.
A few has emerged that the voters fall into two blocks: LLDG and ConRef. Actually I think its more Con/Lab versus none of the above.
It seems quite regional: RefUK in East and North with Lib Dems in South and West. We have not discussed thus because the demographics are so different: ABC going Lib Dem in the South, RefUK getting CDE voters elsewhere.
However this is mangling the previous Tory voter coalition, and squeezing them from both red wall and blue wall.
Labour seem set for a landslide with less than a third of the electorate. There is little enthusiasm for SKS's rather thin lipped managerialism.
The Tories, however, are absolutely loathed, detested, and their voter base now reduced to the absolute core vote.
However, Labour have very little room for manoeuvre and without demonstrable progress within the next few months, they too will quickly become just as unpopular as the Tories.
The none of the above parties will be make big advances in the locals next spring.
SkS had better have something substantial up his sleeve, or the very basis of British democracy will come under challenge. Bullshit and bluster can not just be replaced with minimal competence, welcome though that would be.
I think despite a massive Labour majority, indeed partly because of it, politics is going to become increasingly turbulent.
Yes, think I agree with that.
The 'competent managerialism' may work for a bit but the structural problems will ultimately remain. This is why I think that a new force will enter politics, one that purports to have 'solutions', and will be quite radical as well. I just don't believe that bland centrism can deliver.
The problem is the "radical" people just piss and shout and then dissolve into incompetence.
What you really need is someone serious and competent with a good team behind them dedicated to serious reform: like renegotiating the web of international asylum treaties and HR law.
In the 1970s, you had a number of serious research outfits - like the Center for Policy Studies and the Institute of Fiscal Studies - who pushed back hard against the Keynesian consensus.
Sadly, we don't have a similar interest in policy by politicians anymore.
Until Ukraine can no longer lose however many a day they are losing with less than a quarter of Russias population. That is how attrition works.
Nah.
As Russia herself proved in the Second World War, the proportion of people willing to give up their lives to repel an invader is far greater than the number of people willing to give them up for territorial gains.
And as Russia found out in the First War, and in the Wagner rebellion, eventually troops mutiny.
That latter was such a missed opportunity, probably not for the Russians but likely for a reset to stop the war.
The lack of enthusiasm for Labour at this election really is striking. Among those who plan to vote Labour tomorrow, the party is much less well-liked than in 2019, 2017 or 2015 (no data before that). Quite a flimsy voter coalition that could unravel in the absence of results.
A few has emerged that the voters fall into two blocks: LLDG and ConRef. Actually I think its more Con/Lab versus none of the above.
It seems quite regional: RefUK in East and North with Lib Dems in South and West. We have not discussed thus because the demographics are so different: ABC going Lib Dem in the South, RefUK getting CDE voters elsewhere.
However this is mangling the previous Tory voter coalition, and squeezing them from both red wall and blue wall.
Labour seem set for a landslide with less than a third of the electorate. There is little enthusiasm for SKS's rather thin lipped managerialism.
The Tories, however, are absolutely loathed, detested, and their voter base now reduced to the absolute core vote.
However, Labour have very little room for manoeuvre and without demonstrable progress within the next few months, they too will quickly become just as unpopular as the Tories.
The none of the above parties will be make big advances in the locals next spring.
SkS had better have something substantial up his sleeve, or the very basis of British democracy will come under challenge. Bullshit and bluster can not just be replaced with minimal competence, welcome though that would be.
I think despite a massive Labour majority, indeed partly because of it, politics is going to become increasingly turbulent.
Yes, think I agree with that.
The 'competent managerialism' may work for a bit but the structural problems will ultimately remain. This is why I think that a new force will enter politics, one that purports to have 'solutions', and will be quite radical as well. I just don't believe that bland centrism can deliver.
The problem is the "radical" people just piss and shout and then dissolve into incompetence.
What you really need is someone serious and competent with a good team behind them dedicated to serious reform: like renegotiating the web of international asylum treaties and HR law.
Paragraph 1 describes Johnson.
Paragraph 2 describes a former Senior lawyer... and I have an idea and it's not Suella.
Chortle. He's going to do fuck all mate.
He just wants to be PM and have a blank cheque.
And he'll get one since no-one has put him under any scrutiny.
Of course. It’s simply payback for the party and politicians that put their own ideological obsessions ahead of the interests of our country. Those bunch of mendacious incompetents deserve every defeat that’s incoming.
That we will have a government with a huge majority backed by barely a third of the voters, a quarter of whom would rather have voted for someone else, we can worry about later.
The lack of enthusiasm for Labour at this election really is striking. Among those who plan to vote Labour tomorrow, the party is much less well-liked than in 2019, 2017 or 2015 (no data before that). Quite a flimsy voter coalition that could unravel in the absence of results.
A few has emerged that the voters fall into two blocks: LLDG and ConRef. Actually I think its more Con/Lab versus none of the above.
It seems quite regional: RefUK in East and North with Lib Dems in South and West. We have not discussed thus because the demographics are so different: ABC going Lib Dem in the South, RefUK getting CDE voters elsewhere.
However this is mangling the previous Tory voter coalition, and squeezing them from both red wall and blue wall.
Labour seem set for a landslide with less than a third of the electorate. There is little enthusiasm for SKS's rather thin lipped managerialism.
The Tories, however, are absolutely loathed, detested, and their voter base now reduced to the absolute core vote.
However, Labour have very little room for manoeuvre and without demonstrable progress within the next few months, they too will quickly become just as unpopular as the Tories.
The none of the above parties will be make big advances in the locals next spring.
SkS had better have something substantial up his sleeve, or the very basis of British democracy will come under challenge. Bullshit and bluster can not just be replaced with minimal competence, welcome though that would be.
I think despite a massive Labour majority, indeed partly because of it, politics is going to become increasingly turbulent.
Yes, think I agree with that.
The 'competent managerialism' may work for a bit but the structural problems will ultimately remain. This is why I think that a new force will enter politics, one that purports to have 'solutions', and will be quite radical as well. I just don't believe that bland centrism can deliver.
The problem is the "radical" people just piss and shout and then dissolve into incompetence.
What you really need is someone serious and competent with a good team behind them dedicated to serious reform: like renegotiating the web of international asylum treaties and HR law.
In the 1970s, you had a number of serious research outfits - like the Center for Policy Studies and the Institute of Fiscal Studies - who pushed back hard against the Keynesian consensus.
Sadly, we don't have a similar interest in policy by politicians anymore.
Time that changed.
Indeed: and it's also impossible to see Farage being at the forefront of an intellectual revolution.
The great sadness of our politics is that it is almost entirely defined by what it is you are against. And what you are against is usually a strawman.
Until Ukraine can no longer lose however many a day they are losing with less than a quarter of Russias population. That is how attrition works.
They’re also losing around a quarter of the troops Russia is losing, so well before Ukraine is out of troops Russia is going to be calling up all the Moscovites and St. Petersbergers, which I suspect won’t go down too well with the middle-class whites in those cities bing told to send their sons to the meat grinder.
Meat grinder tactics simply should not work on a modern battlefield given the power of antipersonnel weaponry. The only reason that they have worked over the summer is that Ukraine was not getting nearly enough ammunition to use the systems they have, let alone any new ones. That situation has improved and we are now back to something similar to a stalemate with any Russian advances being offset by counterattacks by Ukraine.
What we really need is to increase our supply of material to Ukraine to the point the Russian tactics become unsustainable. Already losses of artillery systems, which are essential to prepare the ground for these meat attacks, are at record highs as counterbattery retaliation has increased.
The key point is going to be the US election in November and I think the Russians are hanging on and hoping that changes the strategic position of the US. The new government in the UK and the EU should be ramping up production far more than they are just in case they need to fill that gap.
The only good thing about the last time we did this was the return of the King Arthur theme, with a more dramatic new arrangement (although the final flourish is gratuitous, I feel):
Tomorrow is a public holiday in the US. I plan on getting up early, getting on my bike, and successfully getting to the top of Kenter Canyon (which is a brutal Category 2/3 climb on Strava). It does involve passing the VP's California residence on my way up, so I will wave as I pass.
Then barbeque with the family (I have a big steak I'm looking to cook), before a quick check of the exit poll at 2pm (10pm). At about 4pm, I will settle in by my computer with a bottle of wine to enjoy the show.
The key point is going to be the US election in November and I think the Russians are hanging on and hoping that changes the strategic position of the US. The new government in the UK and the EU should be ramping up production far more than they are just in case they need to fill that gap.
The election doesn't matter as much any more. Even if the mortal remains of Biden manage to get re-elected he won't be getting another Ukraine loot drop through Congress in its current form.
The key point is going to be the US election in November and I think the Russians are hanging on and hoping that changes the strategic position of the US. The new government in the UK and the EU should be ramping up production far more than they are just in case they need to fill that gap.
The election doesn't matter as much any more. Even if the mortal remains of Biden manage to get re-elected he won't be getting another Ukraine loot drop through Congress in its current form.
Congress changes at year end. It is far from impossible that all three branches: Senate, House and Presidency all flip.
Until Ukraine can no longer lose however many a day they are losing with less than a quarter of Russias population. That is how attrition works.
They’re also losing around a quarter of the troops Russia is losing, so well before Ukraine is out of troops Russia is going to be calling up all the Moscovites and St. Petersbergers, which I suspect won’t go down too well with the middle-class whites in those cities bing told to send their sons to the meat grinder.
Meat grinder tactics simply should not work on a modern battlefield given the power of antipersonnel weaponry. The only reason that they have worked over the summer is that Ukraine was not getting nearly enough ammunition to use the systems they have, let alone any new ones. That situation has improved and we are now back to something similar to a stalemate with any Russian advances being offset by counterattacks by Ukraine.
What we really need is to increase our supply of material to Ukraine to the point the Russian tactics become unsustainable. Already losses of artillery systems, which are essential to prepare the ground for these meat attacks, are at record highs as counterbattery retaliation has increased.
The key point is going to be the US election in November and I think the Russians are hanging on and hoping that changes the strategic position of the US. The new government in the UK and the EU should be ramping up production far more than they are just in case they need to fill that gap.
The tactic was to send in the conscrips to get slaughtered, but to identify the defensive positions by doing so, and pound them with artillery, then repeat.
Not a very sophisticated battle plan, but falls apart when losing your artillery when that too is revealed.
Final Survation Poll of the 2024 General Election:
18 point Labour lead
Labour: 37.6% Conservative: 19.9% Reform UK: 17.0% Liberal Democrats: 12.1% Green Party: 7.2% Scottish National Party: 3.0% Plaid Cymru: 0.6% Other: 2.4%
Based on telephone interviews of 1,679 respondents living in Great Britain aged 18+. Fieldwork was conducted between the 1st and 3rd of July 2024.
We have also updated our MRP model with the data from this final telephone poll. Changes below vs. the 2nd July 2024 update.
Probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 475 (-9) Conservative: 64 (-) Liberal Democrats: 60 (-1) Scottish National Party: 13 (+3) Reform UK: 13 (+6) Green Party: 3 (-) Plaid Cymru: 4 (+1)
survation.com/final-survatio…
13 quite high for Reform, if correct though it would be absurd that Labour get 73% of MPs on barely more than a third of the vote. Might finally start to make some Tories question if FPTP still works for them and look towards PR, with PR on the Survation figures Tories and Reform would have the same number of MPs combined as Labour do
How bloody shabby though, Hyufd, that only when it doesn't work for them do some Tories start to question FPTP.
What's good for the country doesn't come into it then?
🗳️ It's election day and polling stations are open from 7am until 10pm (Thursday, 4 July). 🪪 Remember to bring your voter ID. 🐶 Are you bringing your dog along with you when you vote? 📷 Comment below with your #DogsAtPollingStations photo."
🗳️ It's election day and polling stations are open from 7am until 10pm (Thursday, 4 July). 🪪 Remember to bring your voter ID. 🐶 Are you bringing your dog along with you when you vote? 📷 Comment below with your #DogsAtPollingStations photo."
🗳️ It's election day and polling stations are open from 7am until 10pm (Thursday, 4 July). 🪪 Remember to bring your voter ID. 🐶 Are you bringing your dog along with you when you vote? 📷 Comment below with your #DogsAtPollingStations photo."
"Be warned, only owners of certain dog breeds will be allowed to cast a vote. For public safety reasons, Chihuahua owners will be barred from polling stations, irrespective of whether they are accompanied by their dog or not."
Tomorrow is a public holiday in the US. I plan on getting up early, getting on my bike, and successfully getting to the top of Kenter Canyon (which is a brutal Category 2/3 climb on Strava). It does involve passing the VP's California residence on my way up, so I will wave as I pass.
Then barbeque with the family (I have a big steak I'm looking to cook), before a quick check of the exit poll at 2pm (10pm). At about 4pm, I will settle in by my computer with a bottle of wine to enjoy the show.
There may be some mild betting activity.
You’re in a much better time zone than me!
I’ll try and get some sleep in the evening, or might go to the pub and stay up for the exit poll at 1am, then getting a couple of hours’ sleep, then drinking champagne and eating bacon sandwiches until about 8am, then getting a couple of hours’ more sleep!
🗳️ It's election day and polling stations are open from 7am until 10pm (Thursday, 4 July). 🪪 Remember to bring your voter ID. 🐶 Are you bringing your dog along with you when you vote? 📷 Comment below with your #DogsAtPollingStations photo."
Best day of the year for dog thieves
Dog prices collapsed after the pandemic, and you don't hear quite so much about thefts nowadays
Until Ukraine can no longer lose however many a day they are losing with less than a quarter of Russias population. That is how attrition works.
Nah.
As Russia herself proved in the Second World War, the proportion of people willing to give up their lives to repel an invader is far greater than the number of people willing to give them up for territorial gains.
They will solve that by population exchanges in the bits they hang on to.
The lack of enthusiasm for Labour at this election really is striking. Among those who plan to vote Labour tomorrow, the party is much less well-liked than in 2019, 2017 or 2015 (no data before that). Quite a flimsy voter coalition that could unravel in the absence of results.
A few has emerged that the voters fall into two blocks: LLDG and ConRef. Actually I think its more Con/Lab versus none of the above.
It seems quite regional: RefUK in East and North with Lib Dems in South and West. We have not discussed thus because the demographics are so different: ABC going Lib Dem in the South, RefUK getting CDE voters elsewhere.
However this is mangling the previous Tory voter coalition, and squeezing them from both red wall and blue wall.
Labour seem set for a landslide with less than a third of the electorate. There is little enthusiasm for SKS's rather thin lipped managerialism.
The Tories, however, are absolutely loathed, detested, and their voter base now reduced to the absolute core vote.
However, Labour have very little room for manoeuvre and without demonstrable progress within the next few months, they too will quickly become just as unpopular as the Tories.
The none of the above parties will be make big advances in the locals next spring.
SkS had better have something substantial up his sleeve, or the very basis of British democracy will come under challenge. Bullshit and bluster can not just be replaced with minimal competence, welcome though that would be.
I think despite a massive Labour majority, indeed partly because of it, politics is going to become increasingly turbulent.
Yes, think I agree with that.
The 'competent managerialism' may work for a bit but the structural problems will ultimately remain. This is why I think that a new force will enter politics, one that purports to have 'solutions', and will be quite radical as well. I just don't believe that bland centrism can deliver.
The problem is the "radical" people just piss and shout and then dissolve into incompetence.
What you really need is someone serious and competent with a good team behind them dedicated to serious reform: like renegotiating the web of international asylum treaties and HR law.
Paragraph 1 describes Johnson.
Paragraph 2 describes a former Senior lawyer... and I have an idea and it's not Suella.
Chortle. He's going to do fuck all mate.
He just wants to be PM and have a blank cheque.
And he'll get one since no-one has put him under any scrutiny.
🗳️ It's election day and polling stations are open from 7am until 10pm (Thursday, 4 July). 🪪 Remember to bring your voter ID. 🐶 Are you bringing your dog along with you when you vote? 📷 Comment below with your #DogsAtPollingStations photo."
Legally we have to list all the other pets in East Devon
Cats Goldfish Lizards Hamsters and other rat impersonators Tamogochi
I can never remotely understand why people are prepared to waste their time, time they can never recover, queuing at a polling station. If they're so fanatical about voting, why not really live the high life and apply for a postal vote. That way they can return it a week or two beforehand and then simply spend the intervening period wallowing in a deep sense of self satisfaction, telling all their friends how totally fulfilled they feel.
Unless I have missed it, it seems deepfakes are the dogs that haven't barked in this election. A few months ago I was expecting the campaign to be full of videos of Starmer castrating a minor aide over his chai being too milky, or Sunak eating indigenous Moldovans in place of his favoured sandwich, which a few days later were exposed as the twisted creation of a Dura_Ace-type figure operating from the dark web.
The relative absence of such videos tells me one of two things: (a) our security services are doing a decent job of information security; or (b) said videos are now good enough and we are collectively gullible enough that they haven't been spotted.
That the Tories put out such awful stuff that no one would notice deepfakes.
Until Ukraine can no longer lose however many a day they are losing with less than a quarter of Russias population. That is how attrition works.
Nah.
As Russia herself proved in the Second World War, the proportion of people willing to give up their lives to repel an invader is far greater than the number of people willing to give them up for territorial gains.
They will solve that by population exchanges in the bits they hang on to.
Unless I have missed it, it seems deepfakes are the dogs that haven't barked in this election. A few months ago I was expecting the campaign to be full of videos of Starmer castrating a minor aide over his chai being too milky, or Sunak eating indigenous Moldovans in place of his favoured sandwich, which a few days later were exposed as the twisted creation of a Dura_Ace-type figure operating from the dark web.
The relative absence of such videos tells me one of two things: (a) our security services are doing a decent job of information security; or (b) said videos are now good enough and we are collectively gullible enough that they haven't been spotted.
The key point is going to be the US election in November and I think the Russians are hanging on and hoping that changes the strategic position of the US. The new government in the UK and the EU should be ramping up production far more than they are just in case they need to fill that gap.
The election doesn't matter as much any more. Even if the mortal remains of Biden manage to get re-elected he won't be getting another Ukraine loot drop through Congress in its current form.
Congress changes at year end. It is far from impossible that all three branches: Senate, House and Presidency all flip.
And Republican senators seem to be a bit more willing to support Ukraine than Republicans in the House, so those 2 can flip. Just need Hillary Clinton to win the presidency and Russia will be out of Ukraine by Christmas!
The lack of enthusiasm for Labour at this election really is striking. Among those who plan to vote Labour tomorrow, the party is much less well-liked than in 2019, 2017 or 2015 (no data before that). Quite a flimsy voter coalition that could unravel in the absence of results.
A few has emerged that the voters fall into two blocks: LLDG and ConRef. Actually I think its more Con/Lab versus none of the above.
It seems quite regional: RefUK in East and North with Lib Dems in South and West. We have not discussed thus because the demographics are so different: ABC going Lib Dem in the South, RefUK getting CDE voters elsewhere.
However this is mangling the previous Tory voter coalition, and squeezing them from both red wall and blue wall.
Labour seem set for a landslide with less than a third of the electorate. There is little enthusiasm for SKS's rather thin lipped managerialism.
The Tories, however, are absolutely loathed, detested, and their voter base now reduced to the absolute core vote.
However, Labour have very little room for manoeuvre and without demonstrable progress within the next few months, they too will quickly become just as unpopular as the Tories.
The none of the above parties will be make big advances in the locals next spring.
SkS had better have something substantial up his sleeve, or the very basis of British democracy will come under challenge. Bullshit and bluster can not just be replaced with minimal competence, welcome though that would be.
I think despite a massive Labour majority, indeed partly because of it, politics is going to become increasingly turbulent.
Yes, think I agree with that.
The 'competent managerialism' may work for a bit but the structural problems will ultimately remain. This is why I think that a new force will enter politics, one that purports to have 'solutions', and will be quite radical as well. I just don't believe that bland centrism can deliver.
The problem is the "radical" people just piss and shout and then dissolve into incompetence.
What you really need is someone serious and competent with a good team behind them dedicated to serious reform: like renegotiating the web of international asylum treaties and HR law.
Paragraph 1 describes Johnson.
Paragraph 2 describes a former Senior lawyer... and I have an idea and it's not Suella.
Chortle. He's going to do fuck all mate.
He just wants to be PM and have a blank cheque.
And he'll get one since no-one has put him under any scrutiny.
It's a job interview where it doesn't matter who comes through the door it's better than the current situation..
Just voted. I don't recall being told on the voting slip whether candidates' addresses are in the constituency. Is that new? It felt appropriate, somehow, that my Reform candidate claims to live in Gibraltar. Also notable that noone asked me for ID.
Just voted. I don't recall being told on the voting slip whether candidates' addresses are in the constituency. Is that new? It felt appropriate, somehow, that my Reform candidate claims to live in Gibraltar. Also notable that noone asked me for ID.
The new bit is allowing candidates not to reveal their address - a change after the various tragic attacks on MPs - so for GEs the ballot paper can simply record which constituency they live in. As I understand it the Tories have told all of their candidates to withhold their addresses, so this will likely become the standard for the future.
As it happens, we have a town council by-election today - such excitement! - and one candidate has declared their address and the other hasn't. At hyper local level my guess is that voters would prefer to know where their candidates live.
The only good thing about the last time we did this was the return of the King Arthur theme, with a more dramatic new arrangement (although the final flourish is gratuitous, I feel):
I can never remotely understand why people are prepared to waste their time, time they can never recover, queuing at a polling station. If they're so fanatical about voting, why not really live the high life and apply for a postal vote. That way they can return it a week or two beforehand and then simply spend the intervening period wallowing in a deep sense of self satisfaction, telling all their friends how totally fulfilled they feel.
Unless I have missed it, it seems deepfakes are the dogs that haven't barked in this election. A few months ago I was expecting the campaign to be full of videos of Starmer castrating a minor aide over his chai being too milky, or Sunak eating indigenous Moldovans in place of his favoured sandwich, which a few days later were exposed as the twisted creation of a Dura_Ace-type figure operating from the dark web.
The relative absence of such videos tells me one of two things: (a) our security services are doing a decent job of information security; or (b) said videos are now good enough and we are collectively gullible enough that they haven't been spotted.
It's today. An election day they will be studying for decades to come. All election days are fun, this one especially so.
Wherever you are, however you are voting, have fun. I always vote in person, despite years of party apparatchiks insisting that activists do a postal. No. The sanctity of the voting booth, our freedom to vote which my grandad and his comrades fought and bled and died for.
🗳️ It's election day and polling stations are open from 7am until 10pm (Thursday, 4 July). 🪪 Remember to bring your voter ID. 🐶 Are you bringing your dog along with you when you vote? 📷 Comment below with your #DogsAtPollingStations photo."
"Be warned, only owners of certain dog breeds will be allowed to cast a vote. For public safety reasons, Chihuahua owners will be barred from polling stations, irrespective of whether they are accompanied by their dog or not."
I finally decided to register after reading your comments for months. Mainly, I just wanted to say thanks for making it so easy for me to stay informed about all the various polling - and the insightful commentary you good people contribute around the data.
I hope you all have a fun election night. I'll be following along for sure.
The lack of enthusiasm for Labour at this election really is striking. Among those who plan to vote Labour tomorrow, the party is much less well-liked than in 2019, 2017 or 2015 (no data before that). Quite a flimsy voter coalition that could unravel in the absence of results.
A few has emerged that the voters fall into two blocks: LLDG and ConRef. Actually I think its more Con/Lab versus none of the above.
It seems quite regional: RefUK in East and North with Lib Dems in South and West. We have not discussed thus because the demographics are so different: ABC going Lib Dem in the South, RefUK getting CDE voters elsewhere.
However this is mangling the previous Tory voter coalition, and squeezing them from both red wall and blue wall.
Labour seem set for a landslide with less than a third of the electorate. There is little enthusiasm for SKS's rather thin lipped managerialism.
The Tories, however, are absolutely loathed, detested, and their voter base now reduced to the absolute core vote.
However, Labour have very little room for manoeuvre and without demonstrable progress within the next few months, they too will quickly become just as unpopular as the Tories.
The none of the above parties will be make big advances in the locals next spring.
SkS had better have something substantial up his sleeve, or the very basis of British democracy will come under challenge. Bullshit and bluster can not just be replaced with minimal competence, welcome though that would be.
I think despite a massive Labour majority, indeed partly because of it, politics is going to become increasingly turbulent.
Yes, think I agree with that.
The 'competent managerialism' may work for a bit but the structural problems will ultimately remain. This is why I think that a new force will enter politics, one that purports to have 'solutions', and will be quite radical as well. I just don't believe that bland centrism can deliver.
The problem is the "radical" people just piss and shout and then dissolve into incompetence.
What you really need is someone serious and competent with a good team behind them dedicated to serious reform: like renegotiating the web of international asylum treaties and HR law.
Paragraph 1 describes Johnson.
Paragraph 2 describes a former Senior lawyer... and I have an idea and it's not Suella.
Chortle. He's going to do fuck all mate.
He just wants to be PM and have a blank cheque.
And he'll get one since no-one has put him under any scrutiny.
So why bother demanding that we vote Conservative? It will at least be a change of faces, even on your own logic, which is also that the Tories are so useless that they have not "put him under any scrutiny".
It's today. An election day they will be studying for decades to come. All election days are fun, this one especially so.
Wherever you are, however you are voting, have fun. I always vote in person, despite years of party apparatchiks insisting that activists do a postal. No. The sanctity of the voting booth, our freedom to vote which my grandad and his comrades fought and bled and died for.
Voting is important.
Yes indeed. Mark your X, and then spare a thought for the countless millions who have governments even worse than ours and there is nothing they can do.
I can never remotely understand why people are prepared to waste their time, time they can never recover, queuing at a polling station. If they're so fanatical about voting, why not really live the high life and apply for a postal vote. That way they can return it a week or two beforehand and then simply spend the intervening period wallowing in a deep sense of self satisfaction, telling all their friends how totally fulfilled they feel.
And the panic that sets in as polling day arrives and your postal vote pack has inadvertently been sent in error by Royal Mail to a sorting office in Inverness.
The lack of enthusiasm for Labour at this election really is striking. Among those who plan to vote Labour tomorrow, the party is much less well-liked than in 2019, 2017 or 2015 (no data before that). Quite a flimsy voter coalition that could unravel in the absence of results.
A few has emerged that the voters fall into two blocks: LLDG and ConRef. Actually I think its more Con/Lab versus none of the above.
It seems quite regional: RefUK in East and North with Lib Dems in South and West. We have not discussed thus because the demographics are so different: ABC going Lib Dem in the South, RefUK getting CDE voters elsewhere.
However this is mangling the previous Tory voter coalition, and squeezing them from both red wall and blue wall.
Labour seem set for a landslide with less than a third of the electorate. There is little enthusiasm for SKS's rather thin lipped managerialism.
The Tories, however, are absolutely loathed, detested, and their voter base now reduced to the absolute core vote.
However, Labour have very little room for manoeuvre and without demonstrable progress within the next few months, they too will quickly become just as unpopular as the Tories.
The none of the above parties will be make big advances in the locals next spring.
SkS had better have something substantial up his sleeve, or the very basis of British democracy will come under challenge. Bullshit and bluster can not just be replaced with minimal competence, welcome though that would be.
I think despite a massive Labour majority, indeed partly because of it, politics is going to become increasingly turbulent.
Yes, think I agree with that.
The 'competent managerialism' may work for a bit but the structural problems will ultimately remain. This is why I think that a new force will enter politics, one that purports to have 'solutions', and will be quite radical as well. I just don't believe that bland centrism can deliver.
The problem is the "radical" people just piss and shout and then dissolve into incompetence.
What you really need is someone serious and competent with a good team behind them dedicated to serious reform: like renegotiating the web of international asylum treaties and HR law.
Paragraph 1 describes Johnson.
Paragraph 2 describes a former Senior lawyer... and I have an idea and it's not Suella.
Chortle. He's going to do fuck all mate.
He just wants to be PM and have a blank cheque.
And he'll get one since no-one has put him under any scrutiny.
You’re being unfair
He’s going to move tab A to slot B and tab B to slot A
Unless I have missed it, it seems deepfakes are the dogs that haven't barked in this election. A few months ago I was expecting the campaign to be full of videos of Starmer castrating a minor aide over his chai being too milky, or Sunak eating indigenous Moldovans in place of his favoured sandwich, which a few days later were exposed as the twisted creation of a Dura_Ace-type figure operating from the dark web.
The relative absence of such videos tells me one of two things: (a) our security services are doing a decent job of information security; or (b) said videos are now good enough and we are collectively gullible enough that they haven't been spotted.
Or (c) - Russia is too busy with other things mentioned upthread to make them anymore.
The lack of enthusiasm for Labour at this election really is striking. Among those who plan to vote Labour tomorrow, the party is much less well-liked than in 2019, 2017 or 2015 (no data before that). Quite a flimsy voter coalition that could unravel in the absence of results.
A few has emerged that the voters fall into two blocks: LLDG and ConRef. Actually I think its more Con/Lab versus none of the above.
It seems quite regional: RefUK in East and North with Lib Dems in South and West. We have not discussed thus because the demographics are so different: ABC going Lib Dem in the South, RefUK getting CDE voters elsewhere.
However this is mangling the previous Tory voter coalition, and squeezing them from both red wall and blue wall.
Labour seem set for a landslide with less than a third of the electorate. There is little enthusiasm for SKS's rather thin lipped managerialism.
The Tories, however, are absolutely loathed, detested, and their voter base now reduced to the absolute core vote.
However, Labour have very little room for manoeuvre and without demonstrable progress within the next few months, they too will quickly become just as unpopular as the Tories.
The none of the above parties will be make big advances in the locals next spring.
SkS had better have something substantial up his sleeve, or the very basis of British democracy will come under challenge. Bullshit and bluster can not just be replaced with minimal competence, welcome though that would be.
I think despite a massive Labour majority, indeed partly because of it, politics is going to become increasingly turbulent.
Yes, think I agree with that.
The 'competent managerialism' may work for a bit but the structural problems will ultimately remain. This is why I think that a new force will enter politics, one that purports to have 'solutions', and will be quite radical as well. I just don't believe that bland centrism can deliver.
The problem is the "radical" people just piss and shout and then dissolve into incompetence.
What you really need is someone serious and competent with a good team behind them dedicated to serious reform: like renegotiating the web of international asylum treaties and HR law.
Paragraph 1 describes Johnson.
Paragraph 2 describes a former Senior lawyer... and I have an idea and it's not Suella.
Chortle. He's going to do fuck all mate.
He just wants to be PM and have a blank cheque.
And he'll get one since no-one has put him under any scrutiny.
So why bother demanding that we vote Conservative? It will at least be a change of faces, even on your own logic, which is also that the Tories are so useless that they have not "put him under any scrutiny".
Casino highlights the central flaw of the Tory campaign - they tried to attack Starmer simultaneously for having no plan and for being an evil genius, and flipped back and forth from one to the other making either feel like nonsense.
Until Ukraine can no longer lose however many a day they are losing with less than a quarter of Russias population. That is how attrition works.
Nah.
As Russia herself proved in the Second World War, the proportion of people willing to give up their lives to repel an invader is far greater than the number of people willing to give them up for territorial gains.
They will solve that by population exchanges in the bits they hang on to.
As they did in East Prussia.
That's a spectacular non sequitar. Are you OK?
It's what they do (and people are already doing without prompting).
Although in reality, this amounts to a partial defeat by Russia as they won't get a puppet state, won't get Kyiv and likely won't get Odes(s)a and a land bridge to Transdnistra.
35,000 casualties a month would be completely unsustainable. The fact that the situation is being sustained tells you that the 1,200/day figure is bullshit.
No-one is expecting them to be able to sustain it indefinitely. That's the point. At the moment the figure is roughly equally to the estimated figure of new recruits that Russia is mobilising - so they are able to sustain that casualty rate for now.
The Russians have gone to great lengths to find non-Russians to fight and die for them in Ukraine, which certainly helps in making the casualty rate sustainable.
🗳️ It's election day and polling stations are open from 7am until 10pm (Thursday, 4 July). 🪪 Remember to bring your voter ID. 🐶 Are you bringing your dog along with you when you vote? 📷 Comment below with your #DogsAtPollingStations photo."
"Be warned, only owners of certain dog breeds will be allowed to cast a vote. For public safety reasons, Chihuahua owners will be barred from polling stations, irrespective of whether they are accompanied by their dog or not."
Trump would probably want to stop all Chihuahuans at the border
Unless I have missed it, it seems deepfakes are the dogs that haven't barked in this election. A few months ago I was expecting the campaign to be full of videos of Starmer castrating a minor aide over his chai being too milky, or Sunak eating indigenous Moldovans in place of his favoured sandwich, which a few days later were exposed as the twisted creation of a Dura_Ace-type figure operating from the dark web.
The relative absence of such videos tells me one of two things: (a) our security services are doing a decent job of information security; or (b) said videos are now good enough and we are collectively gullible enough that they haven't been spotted.
Or (c) - Russia is too busy with other things mentioned upthread to make them anymore.
Or (d) - keep your powder dry for when it might actually make a difference. This election is probably impossible to derail.
Unless I have missed it, it seems deepfakes are the dogs that haven't barked in this election. A few months ago I was expecting the campaign to be full of videos of Starmer castrating a minor aide over his chai being too milky, or Sunak eating indigenous Moldovans in place of his favoured sandwich, which a few days later were exposed as the twisted creation of a Dura_Ace-type figure operating from the dark web.
The relative absence of such videos tells me one of two things: (a) our security services are doing a decent job of information security; or (b) said videos are now good enough and we are collectively gullible enough that they haven't been spotted.
Or (c) - Russia is too busy with other things mentioned upthread to make them anymore.
Or (d) - keep your powder dry for when it might actually make a difference. This election is probably impossible to derail.
They’re likely more interested in the US election, which is going to be somewhat closer and more controversial than the British one. France and Germany too.
35,000 casualties a month would be completely unsustainable. The fact that the situation is being sustained tells you that the 1,200/day figure is bullshit.
No-one is expecting them to be able to sustain it indefinitely. That's the point. At the moment the figure is roughly equally to the estimated figure of new recruits that Russia is mobilising - so they are able to sustain that casualty rate for now.
The Russians have gone to great lengths to find non-Russians to fight and die for them in Ukraine, which certainly helps in making the casualty rate sustainable.
I think the point he is making is that taking casualty figures put out by the other side at face value is not necessarily wise if you intend to use the figures for serious debate rather than feelgood.
We had friends in Spain during the Falklands war who were breathlessly told by the Spanish media that HMS invincible had been sunk three times in a week.
It's today. An election day they will be studying for decades to come. All election days are fun, this one especially so.
Wherever you are, however you are voting, have fun. I always vote in person, despite years of party apparatchiks insisting that activists do a postal. No. The sanctity of the voting booth, our freedom to vote which my grandad and his comrades fought and bled and died for.
Voting is important.
Good luck!
If you win, fantastic. If you don't and you eat away enough DRoss votes, I think you can claim that as a victory.
Unless I have missed it, it seems deepfakes are the dogs that haven't barked in this election. A few months ago I was expecting the campaign to be full of videos of Starmer castrating a minor aide over his chai being too milky, or Sunak eating indigenous Moldovans in place of his favoured sandwich, which a few days later were exposed as the twisted creation of a Dura_Ace-type figure operating from the dark web.
The relative absence of such videos tells me one of two things: (a) our security services are doing a decent job of information security; or (b) said videos are now good enough and we are collectively gullible enough that they haven't been spotted.
Or (c) - Russia is too busy with other things mentioned upthread to make them anymore.
Russia will be concentrating on the US, and maybe France? The size of Starmer's majority probably isn't a matter of much urgency for them, maybe Conservatives being overtaken by Reform on votes would be nice for Putin, but probably of less immediate importance than the AfD coming top in the 3 German state elections in a few weeks.
🗳️ It's election day and polling stations are open from 7am until 10pm (Thursday, 4 July). 🪪 Remember to bring your voter ID. 🐶 Are you bringing your dog along with you when you vote? 📷 Comment below with your #DogsAtPollingStations photo."
"Be warned, only owners of certain dog breeds will be allowed to cast a vote. For public safety reasons, Chihuahua owners will be barred from polling stations, irrespective of whether they are accompanied by their dog or not."
Trump would probably want to stop all Chihuahuans at the border
It's today. An election day they will be studying for decades to come. All election days are fun, this one especially so.
Wherever you are, however you are voting, have fun. I always vote in person, despite years of party apparatchiks insisting that activists do a postal. No. The sanctity of the voting booth, our freedom to vote which my grandad and his comrades fought and bled and died for.
Voting is important.
Good luck
Thanks! Whatever happens this election has been an experience!
Unless I have missed it, it seems deepfakes are the dogs that haven't barked in this election. A few months ago I was expecting the campaign to be full of videos of Starmer castrating a minor aide over his chai being too milky, or Sunak eating indigenous Moldovans in place of his favoured sandwich, which a few days later were exposed as the twisted creation of a Dura_Ace-type figure operating from the dark web.
The relative absence of such videos tells me one of two things: (a) our security services are doing a decent job of information security; or (b) said videos are now good enough and we are collectively gullible enough that they haven't been spotted.
Or (c) - Russia is too busy with other things mentioned upthread to make them anymore.
Yet they still have time to assign trolls to this place
[Puffs up contentedly with well-placed self-importance]
35,000 casualties a month would be completely unsustainable. The fact that the situation is being sustained tells you that the 1,200/day figure is bullshit.
No-one is expecting them to be able to sustain it indefinitely. That's the point. At the moment the figure is roughly equally to the estimated figure of new recruits that Russia is mobilising - so they are able to sustain that casualty rate for now.
The Russians have gone to great lengths to find non-Russians to fight and die for them in Ukraine, which certainly helps in making the casualty rate sustainable.
I think the point he is making is that taking casualty figures put out by the other side at face value is not necessarily wise if you intend to use the figures for serious debate rather than feelgood.
We had friends in Spain during the Falklands war who were breathlessly told by the Spanish media that HMS invincible had been sunk three times in a week.
Both sides are taking far too many casualties. History will judge Putin very badly for starting such a pointless slaughter.
35,000 casualties a month would be completely unsustainable. The fact that the situation is being sustained tells you that the 1,200/day figure is bullshit.
No-one is expecting them to be able to sustain it indefinitely. That's the point. At the moment the figure is roughly equally to the estimated figure of new recruits that Russia is mobilising - so they are able to sustain that casualty rate for now.
The Russians have gone to great lengths to find non-Russians to fight and die for them in Ukraine, which certainly helps in making the casualty rate sustainable.
I think the point he is making is that taking casualty figures put out by the other side at face value is not necessarily wise if you intend to use the figures for serious debate rather than feelgood.
We had friends in Spain during the Falklands war who were breathlessly told by the Spanish media that HMS invincible had been sunk three times in a week.
Both sides are taking far too many casualties. History will judge Putin very badly for starting such a pointless slaughter.
It's today. An election day they will be studying for decades to come. All election days are fun, this one especially so.
Wherever you are, however you are voting, have fun. I always vote in person, despite years of party apparatchiks insisting that activists do a postal. No. The sanctity of the voting booth, our freedom to vote which my grandad and his comrades fought and bled and died for.
Voting is important.
Yes indeed. Mark your X, and then spare a thought for the countless millions who have governments even worse than ours and there is nothing they can do.
Exactly what my friend just said to me.
Apparently Chris Mason made this very point on BBC News last night.
It's possible as many as 45% of seats could change hands. It must be a long time since anything like that has happened.
And adding to the unpredictability:
Britain Predicts More than 42 seats are almost too close to call, with one percentage point either way. That’s the equivalent of three hundred vote majorities.
+ There are 193 seats where the majority will be under 2,000 votes.
It's today. An election day they will be studying for decades to come. All election days are fun, this one especially so.
Wherever you are, however you are voting, have fun. I always vote in person, despite years of party apparatchiks insisting that activists do a postal. No. The sanctity of the voting booth, our freedom to vote which my grandad and his comrades fought and bled and died for.
Voting is important.
Yes indeed. Mark your X, and then spare a thought for the countless millions who have governments even worse than ours and there is nothing they can do.
Comments
Yeah was looking at this last night. Expectations management? In which case they reckon towards top end of that and hope for a few more - 130plus??
Sadly, we don't have a similar interest in policy by politicians anymore.
That we will have a government with a huge majority backed by barely a third of the voters, a quarter of whom would rather have voted for someone else, we can worry about later.
I finally decided to register after reading your comments for months. Mainly, I just wanted to say thanks for making it so easy for me to stay informed about all the various polling - and the insightful commentary you good people contribute around the data.
I hope you all have a fun election night. I'll be following along for sure.
Thanks
Timothy
Paragraph 2 describes a former Senior lawyer... and I have an idea and it's not Suella.
That said: the Russians advance around Karhiv does seem to have stalled, and they have taken some pretty horrible casualties.
Though an important issue is that Russia is no longer an agrarian society, so the cannon-fodder Russia is sending to the front will eventually start to be from industries that *really* hurt their economy.
What scale of casualties (dead and injured) do you think Russia is suffering?
Edit: Just realised that that reference really ages me. I’m talking about this guy, who’s now 70 years old. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Duncan_(actor)
Voting, I hear, is brisk.
He just wants to be PM and have a blank cheque.
And he'll get one since no-one has put him under any scrutiny.
But it feels more like '97
The great sadness of our politics is that it is almost entirely defined by what it is you are against. And what you are against is usually a strawman.
What we really need is to increase our supply of material to Ukraine to the point the Russian tactics become unsustainable. Already losses of artillery systems, which are essential to prepare the ground for these meat attacks, are at record highs as counterbattery retaliation has increased.
The key point is going to be the US election in November and I think the Russians are hanging on and hoping that changes the strategic position of the US. The new government in the UK and the EU should be ramping up production far more than they are just in case they need to fill that gap.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5vM0R4inOc
Tomorrow is a public holiday in the US. I plan on getting up early, getting on my bike, and successfully getting to the top of Kenter Canyon (which is a brutal Category 2/3 climb on Strava). It does involve passing the VP's California residence on my way up, so I will wave as I pass.
Then barbeque with the family (I have a big steak I'm looking to cook), before a quick check of the exit poll at 2pm (10pm). At about 4pm, I will settle in by my computer with a bottle of wine to enjoy the show.
There may be some mild betting activity.
Not a very sophisticated battle plan, but falls apart when losing your artillery when that too is revealed.
Be careful what you wish for!
Well in that case we had all better go out and vote...
What's good for the country doesn't come into it then?
https://x.com/eastdevon/status/1808743515842625999
"East Devon District Council
@eastdevon
🗳️ It's election day and polling stations are open from 7am until 10pm (Thursday, 4 July).
🪪 Remember to bring your voter ID.
🐶 Are you bringing your dog along with you when you vote? 📷 Comment below with your #DogsAtPollingStations photo."
I’ll try and get some sleep in the evening, or might go to the pub and stay up for the exit poll at 1am, then getting a couple of hours’ sleep, then drinking champagne and eating bacon sandwiches until about 8am, then getting a couple of hours’ more sleep!
As they did in East Prussia.
Cats
Goldfish
Lizards
Hamsters and other rat impersonators
Tamogochi
I don't recall being told on the voting slip whether candidates' addresses are in the constituency. Is that new?
It felt appropriate, somehow, that my Reform candidate claims to live in Gibraltar.
Also notable that noone asked me for ID.
As it happens, we have a town council by-election today - such excitement! - and one candidate has declared their address and the other hasn't. At hyper local level my guess is that voters would prefer to know where their candidates live.
I admit I was wondering why they had selected Christopher Cross's "Arthur's Theme"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJ6zs2WSCjk
Wherever you are, however you are voting, have fun. I always vote in person, despite years of party apparatchiks insisting that activists do a postal. No. The sanctity of the voting booth, our freedom to vote which my grandad and his comrades fought and bled and died for.
Voting is important.
And cursing Beeching when they find out how far the place is from Northampton?
He’s going to move tab A to slot B and tab B to slot A
There’s a shuttle bus from Northampton station, or at least there was back in 2011 when I last went to the British GP.
Although in reality, this amounts to a partial defeat by Russia as they won't get a puppet state, won't get Kyiv and likely won't get Odes(s)a and a land bridge to Transdnistra.
The Russians have gone to great lengths to find non-Russians to fight and die for them in Ukraine, which certainly helps in making the casualty rate sustainable.
Mike Smithson - Very best wishes, hope you're enjoying the fun.
We had friends in Spain during the Falklands war who were breathlessly told by the Spanish media that HMS invincible had been sunk three times in a week.
If you win, fantastic. If you don't and you eat away enough DRoss votes, I think you can claim that as a victory.
(I will get my coat)
She’s awoken this morning to tell me she’s not now sure that she will vote Conservative!
“Genuinely conflicted this morning” is her comment.
I made no attempt to persuade her but we both agreed that it’s important to vote.
I suspect there are an awful lot of tories like her. Perhaps this really will be a bad night for them.
[Puffs up contentedly with well-placed self-importance]
Apparently Chris Mason made this very point on BBC News last night.
Britain Predicts
More than 42 seats are almost too close to call, with one percentage point either way. That’s the equivalent of three hundred vote majorities.
+ There are 193 seats where the majority will be under 2,000 votes.
@BNHWalker writes
https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1808741785692144070?t=20KPmDg7UElThwd-yURYiQ&s=19
I’m heartened to hear that.