Long time lurker here! Spotted a couple of interesting bets available, In East Surrey, Claire Coutinho is defending a 24k majority for the Tories. It's a very long shot, but Yougov's last MRP has her on 34%, ahead of the Lib Dems who have 28%. Lib Dems are 20/1 on Skybet and bet365.
In Scotland, Amy Callaghan is defending a notional majority of 1,986 for the SNP over a Lib Dem challenge in Mid Dunbartonshire. This seat has had boundary changes and will be a slightly tougher nut to crack than the former East Dunbartonshire seat. It's likely to go Lib Dem but you can still get 8/1 on SNP again via Skybet and bet365. Yougov have the seat as an SNP hold on their final MRP
I got on the East Surrey LD bet a few weeks ago after spotting it at 20s (it's my constituency) - that is a frankly ludicrous price for a party with a strong ground game and longstanding representation at council level. I've also seen a lot of orange diamonds and not a single blue board to date
Follow up question in news briefing: If the president is jet lagged 12 days after overseas travel, doesn't that raise its own issues?
Honestly, I'm in my 30s and get jetlagged for a few days even when the clocks change twice a year. East coast US - UK takes me a week to fully recover from, and west coast takes me two.
I get it, the President of the US should do better than that: he's got much more experience, and probably lots of pharmaceutical help.
But jetlag is a real issue, no matter how much caffeine and/or amphetamines you have access to.
Yes it is and some get it worse than others.
Last time I went out to Asia I hadn’t really recovered for 2 weeks and I’m very fit and healthy.
No you are not, if that's true. And anyway if you want to be a world statesman you are claiming to be world class at a lot of things, including regular long haul travel. I mean I cycled 70 miles 10 days ago and it took me 4 days to recover, but I am not going to proffer that as an excuse for Vingegaard underperforming today.
You’re confusing two different things if I may say so.
I’m not giving an excuse for Joe Biden’s debate performance and if this is the latest one, coming after having a cold, or not having his afternoon nap, then it’s pretty risible.
But jetlag is a strange thing and can sometimes hit you for a couple of weeks. Especially if you mess up the flight timings as I did on that occasion. Other times it hardly affects me.
But I note you profess to be my medic which is a new point of departure in an increasingly hostile frame of reference on here. I am, in fact, exceptionally fit and healthy (well always touch wood etc) with a resting pulse of 45. I run and walk loads, gym workouts, yoga etc. I have blood test MOTs every 6 months and my endocrinologist, who spoke to me just two days ago, is delighted.
But, hey, if you think you know best ...
As the PBer who probably flies the most, I tend to agree. Some people seem to get letlag really badly, and some don't, and it's not necessarily basic health or fitness that determines this. it's almost random. Also if you travel a lot (like me) then your body gets used to clock changes and jetlag diminishes over the years
And yet despite that, sometimes I can be whacked by jetlag out of nowhere, and for no obvious reason - and a long haul flight that I would normally shrug off leaves me hazy for a week. It must be complexly linked to biorhythms and hormonal chan⁸ges and diet/exercise - so many imponderables it is impossible to untangle them
However, blaming Biden's debate performance on jetlag is so ridiculous it is insulting. He is senile, and it's getting worse, and that's all there is to it. He needs to quit or he will lose badly to Trump
Agree with every word of what you’ve written.
Occasionally we align
No this is bollocks from both of you because you are not claiming to be qualified to lead the free world. It's like me minimising a bad day for Pogacar on the Tour de France by saying I cycle more than most other PBers and I find 80 miles really tiring. It's absolutely irrelevant to contenders for world class status. Joe can stand the heat or get out of the kitchen.
No, I'm agreeing with @Heathener that jet lag hits some people more than others, and it isn't easily explained by health/fitness or even age. I know old people that fly around the world no problem, I know younger fit people who get terrible jet lag. It's a genuinely mysterious condition (I believe that is medically accepted - ie we know some things about it but much is left to be explored)
And we all agree that this is an absurd excuse from the Dems. Even if Biden isn't senile (he is) a POTUS should not be rendered incoherent 12 days after a flight, flying around the world is part of his job, and so he's not fit for the job
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
Yep. The funny thing will be if any of these people get seriously stung with a tax that had never even entered their heads.
If Labour wants to do any of their pet projects (on top of just day to day managing) they are going to have to introduce some serious tax rises. And with IT, NI and VAT ruled out they will have to go into new areas.
I don't know - how about extending IHT to lifetime gifts with tax payable on the spot. Bank of Mum and Dad wants to fund a house deposit - 20% (or maybe 40%?) tax payable on the spot on the transfer.
When they get clobbered with that they'll think why on earth didn't they vote for the Conservatives offering sod all. Because sod all would have been infinitely preferable.
Not everyone values a few extra £k in their bank account versus, say, public services that work, better health services, a fairer society.
I appreciate this is hard for Tories to understand, but there it is.
I expect that Labour will probably try and tax all these people who spend all day looking at bar charts of their stocks/shares etc and who have built up massive fortunes in ISAs/SIPPs. Trying to rebalance priorities more towards people who go to work on modest incomes and are one shock away from poverty can't honestly be a bad thing in my view even though I guess I will be hit at a personal level.
I am more worried about the possible tilt towards authoritarianism and 'progressive' initiatives to try and re-engineer society, be this through social policy, criminal justice policy etc. Very worrying, particularly given the enormous majority they will probably have.
All the final polls tonight have Labour below the 43% Blair got in 1997 but heading for a bigger majority than then due to the split on the right between Tory and Reform. LDs also below 1997 levels but again may get more seats than then for the same reason, looks like FPTP will really boost the left and hit the right for once tomorrow. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
The MRPs at least suggest the Tories will be over the pyschologically important 100 seats mark though and still clearly the main opposition to a near certain Starmer government
Follow up question in news briefing: If the president is jet lagged 12 days after overseas travel, doesn't that raise its own issues?
Honestly, I'm in my 30s and get jetlagged for a few days even when the clocks change twice a year. East coast US - UK takes me a week to fully recover from, and west coast takes me two.
I get it, the President of the US should do better than that: he's got much more experience, and probably lots of pharmaceutical help.
But jetlag is a real issue, no matter how much caffeine and/or amphetamines you have access to.
Yes it is and some get it worse than others.
Last time I went out to Asia I hadn’t really recovered for 2 weeks and I’m very fit and healthy.
No you are not, if that's true. And anyway if you want to be a world statesman you are claiming to be world class at a lot of things, including regular long haul travel. I mean I cycled 70 miles 10 days ago and it took me 4 days to recover, but I am not going to proffer that as an excuse for Vingegaard underperforming today.
You’re confusing two different things if I may say so.
I’m not giving an excuse for Joe Biden’s debate performance and if this is the latest one, coming after having a cold, or not having his afternoon nap, then it’s pretty risible.
But jetlag is a strange thing and can sometimes hit you for a couple of weeks. Especially if you mess up the flight timings as I did on that occasion. Other times it hardly affects me.
But I note you profess to be my medic which is a new point of departure in an increasingly hostile frame of reference on here. I am, in fact, exceptionally fit and healthy (well always touch wood etc) with a resting pulse of 45. I run and walk loads, gym workouts, yoga etc. I have blood test MOTs every 6 months and my endocrinologist, who spoke to me just two days ago, is delighted as is my GP. I take my health seriously, which is one of the reasons I gave up alcohol a long time ago. And I’m very careful about what I eat (tomorrow’s scotch egg for election night being a notable exception!).
But, hey, if you think you know best ...
Well, fit for me means fit for purpose. I know several seriously old buffers who push off to Thailand and Cambodia for the winter months and are on cracking form 48 hours after the flight back. I am deeply sorry that you lack their resilience. Perhaps have a word with your endocrinologist.
Labour down a bit in these last few polls.....will it continue in the polling booth?
If the system was one person one vote then Tories and reform coalition. If the poll is correct?
The system is one person one vote.
If the system were PR, which is what I think you mean, Con + Ref wouldn't be able to command a majority. And since none of Lab, Ld or Green would join them, you'd have a Lab/LD/Green coalition.
Thanks for the clarification. No reform in government. Fantastic!
Follow up question in news briefing: If the president is jet lagged 12 days after overseas travel, doesn't that raise its own issues?
Say it ain't so. Are they really trying to blame Biden's debate performance on..... jetlag???
They are. But that's just for those who don't follow the politics well. It was revealed that Biden had been coached for seven days prior to the debate. The chances of any jetlag still being evident are basically nil. It was just used as an excuse.
The United States is approaching a fairly critical moment here. Either Biden stands aside and allows someone (anyone) young to run to defeat Trump in November, or it becomes.... at best a dysfunctional flawed state with limited democracy, or at worse a fascist state.
All the final polls tonight have Labour below the 43% Blair got in 1997 but heading for a bigger majority than then due to the split on the right between Tory and Reform. LDs also below 1997 levels but again may get more seats than then for the same reason, looks like FPTP will really boost the left and hit the right for once tomorrow. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
The MRPs at least suggest the Tories will be over the pyschologically important 100 seats mark though and still clearly the main opposition to a near certain Starmer government
So is Biden done? Harris / Sanders ticket incoming?
Sanders is like bolting Corbyn on to the ticket. Yes, he's still sharp. But he is seriously left wing for main stream US politics.
We need Biden to walk the plank first. I don't mind Harris but Whitmer with a VP who is a Representative/ Senator from a rust belt swing state makes sense.
A Harris-Bernie ticket would be like Starmer replacing Reeves with Burgon. Not going to happen.
Do you think Donald Trump left the country better or worse than when he took office?
Better 48% Worse 47% ——— Do you think Joe Biden has made the country better or worse since taking office?
Better 36% Worse 57%
That’s extraordinary. Seriously half of the USA population are insane .
It is their Brexit moment where they inflict totally unnecessary self-harm on themselves and then spend years regretting it.
Spice will be added because the Yanks are generally armed to the teeth (there being more guns than people in the US)
Whatever happens, we have got The Gatling gun, and they have not
The arms borne by the people do not include automatic rifles let alone military drones and helicopter gunships. A shooting civil war against the Pentagon is not on the cards.
Except, of course, the Supreme Court legalised automatic weapons a few weeks back.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
I honestly understand. As you will be hit by VAT on school fees, so will I eventually as unless something either unusually bad or unusually good happens it's my intent to send my daughter and any future kids to private school. I will almost certainly be stuffed by CGT increases like @kyf_100. I can realistically expect IHT to cause me issues too.
But it's still more important to me to kick the Tories in the face.
What I don't think you're quite getting is that this isn't emotional. Emotions drive it sure - they do *any* human decision. We emote first and rationalise later. So maybe I'm rationalising later. But I can claim the same about you. Let's call a truce there and go with my rationalisation. Which is that it's deterrence. To say that it's not acceptable to behave and legislate like this and expect to stay in power. To say that it's not acceptable to screw my generation and those younger over.
I'm even a member of the conservative party btw. Just to vote for sanity in the future if it is what emerges from the ashses.
It may be that a different liberal or centre-right party comes about instead - I'd love orange book lib dems. In which case I'll join it.
But this...thing... that dares to call itself the natural party of government... delenda est.
Yep this nails it. They have to be punished for how they've behaved these last few years. If they aren't we'd have become a one party state.
Starmer didn't seal the deal. He's losing voters hand over fist at the moment because he didn't make a pitch to voters that would convince them to stick with him if they faced doubts, or to vote Labour rather than Lib Dem or Green.
He's rather stumbling over the finish line now. He's presumably far enough ahead, but I think it will be a tense wait for the results from the first marginals.
He's played this incredibly smartly in my view. He has played up to his boring tag, he has done nothing to scare the horses or even the right wing media, he makes it all sound like more of the same but with more sensible people in charge. He started with a 20% lead and is finishing with one of around 16%. That is a result and a half. The Tories have frankly not laid a glove on him.
Yep. I think he has been tactically spot on in this election. He has kept manifesto hostages to fortune to a minimum, made sure his opponents have as little to work with as possible and just concentrated on geting elected with a decent majority so he can do what he thinks is necessary.
Pretty much flawless campaign really.
And the point is, ladies and gentleman, that boring, for lack of a better word, is good. Boring is right, boring works. Boring clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the Parliamentary spirit.
You're showing your age Richard (as am I by recognising it).
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
Is @bigjohnowls aware that they're offering socialism?
Why would certain members of the great British public lie when contacted by polling companies? What would be the reasons that they would do that?
People can’t be arsed on the day
Weren’t there some surveys, a few years back, that probably showed people misreporting their votes at previous elections? Seem to recall impossible numbers of LibDem votes being claimed??
So a depressing but perhaps utterly predictable update from my Surrey tory friend.
For weeks she has told me that for the first time in her life she wouldn’t vote for the Conservatives, that she would vote LibDem or Labour (edit or even Green), that the tory party had left her behind not the other way around, that she dislikes Rishi Sunak, that people like Badenoch and Braverman are thoroughly nasty etc. etc. etc.
And tonight? She has told me ...
… that she is voting Conservative
Why? Because her MP Jonathan Lord helped Seema Misa the sub post mistress who was imprisoned whilst pregnant whilst the LibDems’ Ed Davey didn’t listen.
To be honest, I resigned myself to her staying blue. I didn’t criticise her though I did gently point out that she could be voting for Badenoch or Braverman (whom she professes to loathe).
A certain, perhaps significant, number always return to the fold.
Cons 100-200 seats is very much in play in my opinion.
I’ve said for a long time that in the moment of seclusion in the booth, many who have professed to be deserting the Tories will slide back into the old habit. I may be wrong but I expertbthe Tories up 2-3 points on the polling. Nowhere near enough to matter, but I think the pollsters will be wondering about methodology yet again.
Today, in Bootle, everyone hates the Labour party. Despises them. They've done nothing for Bootle and Peter Dowd has been a lazy feckless idiot (etc etc). They are NOT voting Labour tomorrow. They don't know yet who they will vote for, but it won't be him. Maybe the Greens, maybe Lib Dem.
Tomorrow, Peter Dowd will get 82% of the vote in Bootle.
Everyone hates the Labour Party in Bootle..... except on General Election day.
Follow up question in news briefing: If the president is jet lagged 12 days after overseas travel, doesn't that raise its own issues?
Honestly, I'm in my 30s and get jetlagged for a few days even when the clocks change twice a year. East coast US - UK takes me a week to fully recover from, and west coast takes me two.
I get it, the President of the US should do better than that: he's got much more experience, and probably lots of pharmaceutical help.
But jetlag is a real issue, no matter how much caffeine and/or amphetamines you have access to.
Yes it is and some get it worse than others.
Last time I went out to Asia I hadn’t really recovered for 2 weeks and I’m very fit and healthy.
No you are not, if that's true. And anyway if you want to be a world statesman you are claiming to be world class at a lot of things, including regular long haul travel. I mean I cycled 70 miles 10 days ago and it took me 4 days to recover, but I am not going to proffer that as an excuse for Vingegaard underperforming today.
You’re confusing two different things if I may say so.
I’m not giving an excuse for Joe Biden’s debate performance and if this is the latest one, coming after having a cold, or not having his afternoon nap, then it’s pretty risible.
But jetlag is a strange thing and can sometimes hit you for a couple of weeks. Especially if you mess up the flight timings as I did on that occasion. Other times it hardly affects me.
But I note you profess to be my medic which is a new point of departure in an increasingly hostile frame of reference on here. I am, in fact, exceptionally fit and healthy (well always touch wood etc) with a resting pulse of 45. I run and walk loads, gym workouts, yoga etc. I have blood test MOTs every 6 months and my endocrinologist, who spoke to me just two days ago, is delighted as is my GP. I take my health seriously, which is one of the reasons I gave up alcohol a long time ago. And I’m very careful about what I eat (tomorrow’s scotch egg for election night being a notable exception!).
But, hey, if you think you know best ...
Well, fit for me means fit for purpose. I know several seriously old buffers who push off to Thailand and Cambodia for the winter months and are on cracking form 48 hours after the flight back. I am deeply sorry that you lack their resilience. Perhaps have a word with your endocrinologist.
The key to jetlag is sufficient wine and sleeping pills, on the plane and then off, and forcing your body to adapt to the new time as fast as possible. eg if you fly London Bangkok then make it a night flight leaving at 9pm, and make sure you sleep. You will arrive at 5pm Thai time, so make sure you THEN go to sleep at midnight Thai time - the flight will have left you exhausted enough so that you can sleep again
The following day you wake at about 10am feeling fine, and jetlag is basically avoided. Works a treat - for me; others struggle
All the final polls tonight have Labour below the 43% Blair got in 1997 but heading for a bigger majority than then due to the split on the right between Tory and Reform. LDs also below 1997 levels but again may get more seats than then for the same reason, looks like FPTP will really boost the left and hit the right for once tomorrow. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
The MRPs at least suggest the Tories will be over the pyschologically important 100 seats mark though and still clearly the main opposition to a near certain Starmer government
Would Kamala Harris just take over as candidate for the election, or would she actually become president before then?
That’s up to Biden, I guess.
One benefit of going with Kamala Harris instead of the better-polling alternatives is that they could keep that card to play it when they needed it: Biden can stay on as president for now, but at any point he can stand down on grounds of ill health and they get a media cycle of an inauguration, first woman president, a couple of decisive decisions that break from Biden in carefully selected swing-voter-targeting ways etc etc etc.
Do you think Donald Trump left the country better or worse than when he took office?
Better 48% Worse 47% ——— Do you think Joe Biden has made the country better or worse since taking office?
Better 36% Worse 57%
That’s extraordinary. Seriously half of the USA population are insane .
It is their Brexit moment where they inflict totally unnecessary self-harm on themselves and then spend years regretting it.
Spice will be added because the Yanks are generally armed to the teeth (there being more guns than people in the US)
Whatever happens, we have got The Gatling gun, and they have not
The arms borne by the people do not include automatic rifles let alone military drones and helicopter gunships. A shooting civil war against the Pentagon is not on the cards.
I'm not sure on that. A shooting war not involving the Pentagon is possible, as is Mr Trump trying to use the armed forces for his own purposes.
AIUI bump stocks - as used in the 2017 Las Vegas slaughter - have just been made legal again. One 64 year old bloke fired 1000+ rounds in 10 minutes, killing 61 and injuring 400+ people directly. He also had 20kg of explosive.*
And there are places where they have all kinds of major weapons around. Plus the police are militarised with cast off army stock.
* On October 1, 2017, a mass shooting occurred when 64-year-old Stephen Paddock opened fire on the crowd attending the Route 91 Harvest music festival on the Las Vegas Strip in Nevada from his 32nd-floor suites in the Mandalay Bay hotel. He fired more than 1,000 rounds, killing 60 people[a] and wounding at least 413. The ensuing panic brought the total number of injured to approximately 867. ... Paddock was found to have fired a total of 1,058 rounds from fifteen of the firearms: 1,049 from twelve AR-15-style rifles, eight from two AR-10-style rifles, and the round used to kill himself from the Smith & Wesson revolver.
Long time lurker here! Spotted a couple of interesting bets available, In East Surrey, Claire Coutinho is defending a 24k majority for the Tories. It's a very long shot, but Yougov's last MRP has her on 34%, ahead of the Lib Dems who have 28%. Lib Dems are 20/1 on Skybet and bet365.
In Scotland, Amy Callaghan is defending a notional majority of 1,986 for the SNP over a Lib Dem challenge in Mid Dunbartonshire. This seat has had boundary changes and will be a slightly tougher nut to crack than the former East Dunbartonshire seat. It's likely to go Lib Dem but you can still get 8/1 on SNP again via Skybet and bet365. Yougov have the seat as an SNP hold on their final MRP
Welcome. I've had a nibble on the second one, cheers.
So is Biden done? Harris / Sanders ticket incoming?
Sanders is like bolting Corbyn on to the ticket. Yes, he's still sharp. But he is seriously left wing for main stream US politics.
We need Biden to walk the plank first. I don't mind Harris but Whitmer with a VP who is a Representative/ Senator from a rust belt swing state makes sense.
A Harris-Bernie ticket would be like Starmer replacing Reeves with Burgon. Not going to happen.
Whitmer - Warnock
Ipsos finds only Michelle Obama does better than Biden v Trump
'According to a new poll on Tuesday conducted by Reuters and Ipsos, the former first lady is the only Democrat that is able to attain victory over Trump in November in a hypothetical match, leading with 50% support compared to his 39%.
In its findings, Ipsos wrote:
All other hypothetical Democratic candidates either perform similarly to or worse than Biden against Trump.
Vice-president Kamala Harris hypothetically wins 42% of registered voters to Trump’s 43%. California Governor Gavin Newsom hypothetically wins 39% of registered voters to Trump’s 42%.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
Yep. The funny thing will be if any of these people get seriously stung with a tax that had never even entered their heads.
If Labour wants to do any of their pet projects (on top of just day to day managing) they are going to have to introduce some serious tax rises. And with IT, NI and VAT ruled out they will have to go into new areas.
I don't know - how about extending IHT to lifetime gifts with tax payable on the spot. Bank of Mum and Dad wants to fund a house deposit - 20% (or maybe 40%?) tax payable on the spot on the transfer.
When they get clobbered with that they'll think why on earth didn't they vote for the Conservatives offering sod all. Because sod all would have been infinitely preferable.
Not everyone values a few extra £k in their bank account versus, say, public services that work, better health services, a fairer society.
I appreciate this is hard for Tories to understand, but there it is.
Yes, that is the number one reason why my constituency is set to turn red tomorrow. Public services have become almost frighteningly bad, and when they are asked, people repeatedly say that they'd be prepared to pay a bit more tax if that is what is needed to get things working again.
All the final polls tonight have Labour below the 43% Blair got in 1997 but heading for a bigger majority than then due to the split on the right between Tory and Reform. LDs also below 1997 levels but again may get more seats than then for the same reason, looks like FPTP will really boost the left and hit the right for once tomorrow. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
The MRPs at least suggest the Tories will be over the pyschologically important 100 seats mark though and still clearly the main opposition to a near certain Starmer government
It’s your crooked voting system; lap it up.
Don't blame me, I voted for AV!
No way! I am genuinely surprised at that HY. Good for you!
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
Is @bigjohnowls aware that they're offering socialism?
Hey was it you who I bet a tenner it wouldn't be Trump Biden in November? 🙂
Given that he's already 61, this seems like a reasonable conclusion to draw. Renegotiation would take years and it has a vital necessary precondition: a sustained and substantial majority (minimum two-thirds IMHO) of public opinion committed to going back in. The EU member states are not going to want to go through Brexit twice: they need confidence that we won't turn up, stay for a few years being annoying, and then flounce a second time.
Rebuilding sufficient trust to go back in and convincing most of the population to be positive about the project is the work of decades, not months.
Indeed. It also requires unanimous consent from EU member states, and lots of them would want to extract a high price, from the UK or Brussels or both. It would be horrifically painful and even at the end of it, the UK would be risking a last-minute veto from some stroppy member
Starmer is pragmatically correct, it is never going to happen, not in his lifetime or anyone's. It's done. But that doesn't mean we won't come to better arrangements vis a vis mobility and trade, there will be constant tweaks as there are between, say, Switzerland and the EU
And, of course, all this will be rendered meaningless anyway by the various technological changes coming down the line, which will make Brexit seem like a quaint, trivial skirmish compared to a global war
The internal EU politics - especially about subsidies/budgets - strongly suggests to me that, if asked, the EU would say “join the queue to join on the standard terms”.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
It's the opposite of irrational. The Tories' record is so bad - quite possibly the worst in modern history - and for many people they have been pursuing policies whose results seem actively malicious towards them. They are utterly discredited in many eyes that means people want a different approach - much as that may pain you that your team and its ideas have completely failed people.
The entirely irrational thing would be voting Conservative if you feel failed by the government. Einstein and the definition of insanity and all that.
If you are around 35 and a middle earning professional (a group who used to be key swing voters), so have lived under the Tories all your adult life, you have found it more difficult to buy your own home, and earn less in real terms than your 2010 doppelganger did. Your local amenities are worse. You wait longer for any NHS treatment and are unlikely to be able to find an NHS dentist. Oh and if you wanted to get away, you now can't live, work or study easily in loads of places you could in 2010.
We could go on listing these things that have got worse - but on top of this the Tories give every impression that they don't like you, and don't value or even consider your views. Britain feels genuinely broken and what's worse you don't think the Conservatives have a plan to fix it and help you.
So of course it's entirely rational to vote Labour. Warnings about 'socialism' aren't scary because you haven't had the kind of tax cuts that might make you feel better off, nor has the economy grown at any reasonable clip over the past 14 years.
You see a crumbling, meaner, less effective state, low growth, and some of the downright toxicity that emanates from the Tory benches and of course you are more receptive to Labour's arguments about needing to take on a more activist role in fixing things, and raising taxes high earners or those with wealth tend to pay to do so.
You are fully aware that you don't agree with Labour on everything, and know that there might be a time when you're on the wrong end of a decision they make. But frankly, you decide they can't be worse than the other lot and they at least give the impression they like people like me and look like they listen now and again. It's not a difficult rational choice to make.
So in this case you do sound a bit like a Corbynite blaming the electorate for not seeing the Wonders of St. Jeremy, when of course for many rejecting him was also for entirely rational reasons based on the evidence of their eyes. So it is now with the Conservatives. As it was for Labour, the answer is to listen to people and why they are upset with you and prefer the other lot, not to think they are "irrational" for doing so.
Labour down a bit in these last few polls.....will it continue in the polling booth?
If the system was one person one vote then Tories and reform coalition. If the poll is correct?
The system is one person one vote.
If the system were PR, which is what I think you mean, Con + Ref wouldn't be able to command a majority. And since none of Lab, Ld or Green would join them, you'd have a Lab/LD/Green coalition.
I think the mistake you make is the one that many people make when looking at PR - they expect the party vote percentages to stay pretty much as they are now. Many people do not vote for minor parties because they consider them wasted votes. That changes when you have PR and people see an actual result for their vote.
Moreover you should take a warning from France. Whilst they don't have PR as such, it has always been assumed that their style of election over sucessive weekends would keep the extremists out because, even if they got through the first round, the non extremist majority would coalesce around a moderate opponent. But in France the extremists on each side have hollowed out the centre ground so it no longer exists in any meaningful manner. Now you have a choice of hard left wing extremism or hard right wing extremism.
Assumptions the majority will always vote for the centre are sadly deluded.
This has absolutely nothing to do with political betting but can I just put on record that I HATE daylight savings. My favourite night is invariably the one they go back to GMT. And my least favourite is when we go to BST. It's part of this tyranny of early to rise makes an earthworm a cunt or whatever it is absolute scumbag normie twats promoting this pseudoscientific nonsense calendar adjustment which tortures us night owls even more during what should be the most productive months of the year. And being a night owl is correlated with intelligence, creativity, attractiveness, being a good gambler too (see Titanic Thompson) AND SUICIDE BECAUSE OF THIS HORRIFIC SOCIETAL BIAS
I would be quite happy to stick with GMT the whole year. Unfortunately I suspect the morons would insist on having BST the whole year istead whch would be vile.
Moron here. GMT equals waiting till evenings are getting really shit and then making it worse, and then rectifying the situation when things have improved so much anyway that nobody cares.
All year GMT is better for people who do more stuff in natural light between 5.30 and 8.30 in the morning than they do between 4.30 and 7.30 in the afternoon. All year BST is better for the rest of us.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
I honestly understand. As you will be hit by VAT on school fees, so will I eventually as unless something either unusually bad or unusually good happens it's my intent to send my daughter and any future kids to private school. I will almost certainly be stuffed by CGT increases like @kyf_100. I can realistically expect IHT to cause me issues too.
But it's still more important to me to kick the Tories in the face.
What I don't think you're quite getting is that this isn't emotional. Emotions drive it sure - they do *any* human decision. We emote first and rationalise later. So maybe I'm rationalising later. But I can claim the same about you. Let's call a truce there and go with my rationalisation. Which is that it's deterrence. To say that it's not acceptable to behave and legislate like this and expect to stay in power. To say that it's not acceptable to screw my generation and those younger over.
I'm even a member of the conservative party btw. Just to vote for sanity in the future if it is what emerges from the ashses.
It may be that a different liberal or centre-right party comes about instead - I'd love orange book lib dems. In which case I'll join it.
But this...thing... that dares to call itself the natural party of government... delenda est.
I agree with all of this post.
Except I won't be stung by CGT increases, I'll either not sell, or leave. Either way the government gets nothing. CGT at 20% is mid to low tier. CGT at 45% is 10% higher than (checks notes) the socialist paradise of finland, and would be the highest in Europe.
I want to see the Conservatives kicked in the teeth for the last 14 years, but HNWIs are already offski, see articles like
The worst thing for planning is insecurity, and I'd much prefer Labour to say "we will raise it to 30% next year, suck it up or leave" because at the minute investors are acting like it will be a rise to 45%, and far more people are leaving.
It's the failure of Labour to explain this that bugs me., due to the capital flight it's already causing. Tbh, I might even be willing to pay 30%, just tell me what I'm paying so I can plan.
I think the one thing we may get is some instant changes that will affect capital - lifetime gifts might be one.
Follow up question in news briefing: If the president is jet lagged 12 days after overseas travel, doesn't that raise its own issues?
Say it ain't so. Are they really trying to blame Biden's debate performance on..... jetlag???
I heard the jetlag execuse, but 12 DAYS?! If he was that bad 12 days later how bad was he on day 1?
Does anyone in the White House twig how bad their defence has been? They make CCHQ look good.
It's become untenable, I think. He'll be withdrawing. Trump will be hoping he doesn't, which only emphasises that he must.
Having looked at a few previous threads on this issue, you have regularly accused PBers who claimed that Biden is senile of "rehashing Trumpite talking points" etc etc. You basically tried to silence debate on this subject
Well Kinabalu ( and myself) failed to silence debate. You made what seemed to be at least 10,000 excitable anti-Biden posts over three days.
"Anti-Biden".
Are you Mrs, or Hunter, Biden in disguise? Are you a senior Democrat? If not why do you frame this as being about being pro or con good ol' Joe? Your response to the suggestion that Biden is senile is, roughly, Yebbut Trump is senile and also smells of wee so I win. To be pro Biden staying in office is to be pro an inevitable Trump victory. How difficult is this point?
Would Kamala Harris just take over as candidate for the election, or would she actually become president before then?
That’s up to Biden, I guess.
One benefit of going with Kamala Harris instead of the better-polling alternatives is that they could keep that card to play it when they needed it: Biden can stay on as president for now, but at any point he can stand down on grounds of ill health and they get a media cycle of an inauguration, first woman president, a couple of decisive decisions that break from Biden in carefully selected swing-voter-targeting ways etc etc etc.
It's a bit more complex than that. You can't just casually swap out a sitting president with a new president and say Actually this is the candidate, sorry everyone
What about the campaign funds? Who gets them? Can they simply be given to the new person? Is that fair and legally watertight? I can see all kinds of complications, and I can also see voters reacting very negatively to the Democrats treating them like idiots - Yeah. we've known for ages he's demented, we thought we could fool you, seems we can't, try this person instead
Not good
If Biden is going to quit - and of course he should - it needs to happen really soon
This has absolutely nothing to do with political betting but can I just put on record that I HATE daylight savings. My favourite night is invariably the one they go back to GMT. And my least favourite is when we go to BST. It's part of this tyranny of early to rise makes an earthworm a cunt or whatever it is absolute scumbag normie twats promoting this pseudoscientific nonsense calendar adjustment which tortures us night owls even more during what should be the most productive months of the year. And being a night owl is correlated with intelligence, creativity, attractiveness, being a good gambler too (see Titanic Thompson) AND SUICIDE BECAUSE OF THIS HORRIFIC SOCIETAL BIAS
I would be quite happy to stick with GMT the whole year. Unfortunately I suspect the morons would insist on having BST the whole year istead whch would be vile.
Moron here. GMT equals waiting till evenings are getting really shit and then making it worse, and then rectifying the situation when things have improved so much anyway that nobody cares.
All year GMT is better for people who do more stuff in natural light between 5.30 and 8.30 in the morning than they do between 4.30 and 7.30 in the afternoon. All year BST is better for the rest of us.
How about those who want to go to work in the light? Particularly the northern half of the country. It does nothing matter north of Watford Gap?
Follow up question in news briefing: If the president is jet lagged 12 days after overseas travel, doesn't that raise its own issues?
Honestly, I'm in my 30s and get jetlagged for a few days even when the clocks change twice a year. East coast US - UK takes me a week to fully recover from, and west coast takes me two.
I get it, the President of the US should do better than that: he's got much more experience, and probably lots of pharmaceutical help.
But jetlag is a real issue, no matter how much caffeine and/or amphetamines you have access to.
Yes it is and some get it worse than others.
Last time I went out to Asia I hadn’t really recovered for 2 weeks and I’m very fit and healthy.
No you are not, if that's true. And anyway if you want to be a world statesman you are claiming to be world class at a lot of things, including regular long haul travel. I mean I cycled 70 miles 10 days ago and it took me 4 days to recover, but I am not going to proffer that as an excuse for Vingegaard underperforming today.
Also, the US President has a whole medical staff in the next cabin on the plane, a luxury bedroom with heavy sound proofing, a top end chef and a whole staff waiting on him/her
Would Kamala Harris just take over as candidate for the election, or would she actually become president before then?
That’s up to Biden, I guess.
One benefit of going with Kamala Harris instead of the better-polling alternatives is that they could keep that card to play it when they needed it: Biden can stay on as president for now, but at any point he can stand down on grounds of ill health and they get a media cycle of an inauguration, first woman president, a couple of decisive decisions that break from Biden in carefully selected swing-voter-targeting ways etc etc etc.
Also, there would be significant risk involved in having a president who would very probably be without a VP, thanks to the Republicans in Congress.
And the GOP are not exactly strangers to shenanigans.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
It's the opposite of irrational. The Tories' record is so bad - quite possibly the worst in modern history - and for many people they have been pursuing policies whose results seem actively malicious towards them. They are utterly discredited in many eyes that means people want a different approach - much as that may pain you that your team and its ideas have completely failed people.
The entirely irrational thing would be voting Conservative if you feel failed by the government. Einstein and the definition of insanity and all that.
If you are around 35 and a middle earning professional (a group who used to be key swing voters), so have lived under the Tories all your adult life, you have found it more difficult to buy your own home, and earn less in real terms than your 2010 doppelganger did. Your local amenities are worse. You wait longer for any NHS treatment and are unlikely to be able to find an NHS dentist. Oh and if you wanted to get away, you now can't live, work or study easily in loads of places you could in 2010.
We could go on listing these things that have got worse - but on top of this the Tories give every impression that they don't like you, and don't value or even consider your views. Britain feels genuinely broken and what's worse you don't think the Conservatives have a plan to fix it and help you.
So of course it's entirely rational to vote Labour. Warnings about 'socialism' aren't scary because you haven't had the kind of tax cuts that might make you feel better off, nor has the economy grown at any reasonable clip over the past 14 years.
You see a crumbling, meaner, less effective state, low growth, and some of the downright toxicity that emanates from the Tory benches and of course you are more receptive to Labour's arguments about needing to take on a more activist role in fixing things, and raising taxes high earners or those with wealth tend to pay to do so.
You are fully aware that you don't agree with Labour on everything, and know that there might be a time when you're on the wrong end of a decision they make. But frankly, you decide they can't be worse than the other lot and they at least give the impression they like people like me and look like they listen now and again. It's not a difficult rational choice to make.
So in this case you do sound a bit like a Corbynite blaming the electorate for not seeing the Wonders of St. Jeremy, when of course for many rejecting him was also for entirely rational reasons based on the evidence of their eyes. So it is now with the Conservatives. As it was for Labour, the answer is to listen to people and why they are upset with you and prefer the other lot, not to think they are "irrational" for doing so.
The problem with this is assuming that Labour will do any better, or have a plan.
The Conservatives are awful. Genuinely, awful. The question is do Labour have a plan for better, or is it more managed decline?
This Conservative government is the worst in my lifetime. Yet the election campaign has not convinced me that Labour have a plan for the economy or will be any better.
I remember the sense of optimism in 1997 - "things can only get better". But people aren't voting Labour for that reason in 2024, they're voting Labour because the Conservatives have done so badly, they don't believe things can get any worse.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
Yep. The funny thing will be if any of these people get seriously stung with a tax that had never even entered their heads.
If Labour wants to do any of their pet projects (on top of just day to day managing) they are going to have to introduce some serious tax rises. And with IT, NI and VAT ruled out they will have to go into new areas.
I don't know - how about extending IHT to lifetime gifts with tax payable on the spot. Bank of Mum and Dad wants to fund a house deposit - 20% (or maybe 40%?) tax payable on the spot on the transfer.
When they get clobbered with that they'll think why on earth didn't they vote for the Conservatives offering sod all. Because sod all would have been infinitely preferable.
Yes, it's essentially a failure of imagination.
SKS strategy is entirely logical. Say nothing- and allow everyone to project onto him what they'd like to be believe - and run the campaign entirely as a referendum on the Conservatives. Cynical, but effective.
The problem comes when he tries to go for a second term..
Follow up question in news briefing: If the president is jet lagged 12 days after overseas travel, doesn't that raise its own issues?
Say it ain't so. Are they really trying to blame Biden's debate performance on..... jetlag???
I heard the jetlag execuse, but 12 DAYS?! If he was that bad 12 days later how bad was he on day 1?
Does anyone in the White House twig how bad their defence has been? They make CCHQ look good.
It's become untenable, I think. He'll be withdrawing. Trump will be hoping he doesn't, which only emphasises that he must.
Having looked at a few previous threads on this issue, you have regularly accused PBers who claimed that Biden is senile of "rehashing Trumpite talking points" etc etc. You basically tried to silence debate on this subject
Well Kinabalu ( and myself) failed to silence debate. You made what seemed to be at least 10,000 excitable anti-Biden posts over three days.
"Anti-Biden".
Are you Mrs, or Hunter, Biden in disguise? Are you a senior Democrat? If not why do you frame this as being about being pro or con good ol' Joe? Your response to the suggestion that Biden is senile is, roughly, Yebbut Trump is senile and also smells of wee so I win. To be pro Biden staying in office is to be pro an inevitable Trump victory. How difficult is this point?
And of course, if I was really anti-Biden, and wanted Biden and the Democrats to lose badly, I would keep quiet about his obvious dementia, so that the Dems persist with a deeply flawed candidate very likely to lose to Trump when the dementia becomes impossible to hide. As has occurred
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
Yep. The funny thing will be if any of these people get seriously stung with a tax that had never even entered their heads.
If Labour wants to do any of their pet projects (on top of just day to day managing) they are going to have to introduce some serious tax rises. And with IT, NI and VAT ruled out they will have to go into new areas.
I don't know - how about extending IHT to lifetime gifts with tax payable on the spot. Bank of Mum and Dad wants to fund a house deposit - 20% (or maybe 40%?) tax payable on the spot on the transfer.
When they get clobbered with that they'll think why on earth didn't they vote for the Conservatives offering sod all. Because sod all would have been infinitely preferable.
Yes, it's essentially a failure of imagination.
SKS strategy is entirely logical. Say nothing- and allow everyone to project onto him what they'd like to be believe - and run the campaign entirely as a referendum on the Conservatives. Cynical, but effective.
The problem comes when he tries to go for a second term..
Starmer didn't seal the deal. He's losing voters hand over fist at the moment because he didn't make a pitch to voters that would convince them to stick with him if they faced doubts, or to vote Labour rather than Lib Dem or Green.
He's rather stumbling over the finish line now. He's presumably far enough ahead, but I think it will be a tense wait for the results from the first marginals.
He's played this incredibly smartly in my view. He has played up to his boring tag, he has done nothing to scare the horses or even the right wing media, he makes it all sound like more of the same but with more sensible people in charge. He started with a 20% lead and is finishing with one of around 16%. That is a result and a half. The Tories have frankly not laid a glove on him.
Yep. I think he has been tactically spot on in this election. He has kept manifesto hostages to fortune to a minimum, made sure his opponents have as little to work with as possible and just concentrated on geting elected with a decent majority so he can do what he thinks is necessary.
Pretty much flawless campaign really.
And the point is, ladies and gentleman, that boring, for lack of a better word, is good. Boring is right, boring works. Boring clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the Parliamentary spirit.
That doesn't mean his strategy doesn't have a price.
This only gets him into office. It doesn't keep him there.
All the final polls tonight have Labour below the 43% Blair got in 1997 but heading for a bigger majority than then due to the split on the right between Tory and Reform. LDs also below 1997 levels but again may get more seats than then for the same reason, looks like FPTP will really boost the left and hit the right for once tomorrow. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
The MRPs at least suggest the Tories will be over the pyschologically important 100 seats mark though and still clearly the main opposition to a near certain Starmer government
It’s your crooked voting system; lap it up.
FPTP is not crooked, it is just not, to my mind, the best option.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
Yep. The funny thing will be if any of these people get seriously stung with a tax that had never even entered their heads.
If Labour wants to do any of their pet projects (on top of just day to day managing) they are going to have to introduce some serious tax rises. And with IT, NI and VAT ruled out they will have to go into new areas.
I don't know - how about extending IHT to lifetime gifts with tax payable on the spot. Bank of Mum and Dad wants to fund a house deposit - 20% (or maybe 40%?) tax payable on the spot on the transfer.
When they get clobbered with that they'll think why on earth didn't they vote for the Conservatives offering sod all. Because sod all would have been infinitely preferable.
Yes, it's essentially a failure of imagination.
SKS strategy is entirely logical. Say nothing- and allow everyone to project onto him what they'd like to be believe - and run the campaign entirely as a referendum on the Conservatives. Cynical, but effective.
The problem comes when he tries to go for a second term..
Rachel Reeves is the key to them getting a second term
All the final polls tonight have Labour below the 43% Blair got in 1997 but heading for a bigger majority than then due to the split on the right between Tory and Reform. LDs also below 1997 levels but again may get more seats than then for the same reason, looks like FPTP will really boost the left and hit the right for once tomorrow. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
The MRPs at least suggest the Tories will be over the pyschologically important 100 seats mark though and still clearly the main opposition to a near certain Starmer government
It’s your crooked voting system; lap it up.
Don't blame me, I voted for AV!
Just so that you could give your second preference to Plaid Cymru.
This has absolutely nothing to do with political betting but can I just put on record that I HATE daylight savings. My favourite night is invariably the one they go back to GMT. And my least favourite is when we go to BST. It's part of this tyranny of early to rise makes an earthworm a cunt or whatever it is absolute scumbag normie twats promoting this pseudoscientific nonsense calendar adjustment which tortures us night owls even more during what should be the most productive months of the year. And being a night owl is correlated with intelligence, creativity, attractiveness, being a good gambler too (see Titanic Thompson) AND SUICIDE BECAUSE OF THIS HORRIFIC SOCIETAL BIAS
I would be quite happy to stick with GMT the whole year. Unfortunately I suspect the morons would insist on having BST the whole year istead whch would be vile.
Moron here. GMT equals waiting till evenings are getting really shit and then making it worse, and then rectifying the situation when things have improved so much anyway that nobody cares.
All year GMT is better for people who do more stuff in natural light between 5.30 and 8.30 in the morning than they do between 4.30 and 7.30 in the afternoon. All year BST is better for the rest of us.
How about those who want to go to work in the light? Particularly the northern half of the country. It does nothing matter north of Watford Gap?
I live considerably north of Hadrian's Wall. We don't go to work in the light in the winter, nor come home in it, as it is.
Starmer didn't seal the deal. He's losing voters hand over fist at the moment because he didn't make a pitch to voters that would convince them to stick with him if they faced doubts, or to vote Labour rather than Lib Dem or Green.
He's rather stumbling over the finish line now. He's presumably far enough ahead, but I think it will be a tense wait for the results from the first marginals.
He's played this incredibly smartly in my view. He has played up to his boring tag, he has done nothing to scare the horses or even the right wing media, he makes it all sound like more of the same but with more sensible people in charge. He started with a 20% lead and is finishing with one of around 16%. That is a result and a half. The Tories have frankly not laid a glove on him.
Yep. I think he has been tactically spot on in this election. He has kept manifesto hostages to fortune to a minimum, made sure his opponents have as little to work with as possible and just concentrated on geting elected with a decent majority so he can do what he thinks is necessary.
Pretty much flawless campaign really.
And the point is, ladies and gentleman, that boring, for lack of a better word, is good. Boring is right, boring works. Boring clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the Parliamentary spirit.
Dull, vague, campaigns have often worked. The idea 'they won't tell you what they will do' would make a big difference was strange - it doesn't matter if people trust that person, or don't trust you.
So is Biden done? Harris / Sanders ticket incoming?
Sanders is like bolting Corbyn on to the ticket. Yes, he's still sharp. But he is seriously left wing for main stream US politics.
We need Biden to walk the plank first. I don't mind Harris but Whitmer with a VP who is a Representative/ Senator from a rust belt swing state makes sense.
A Harris-Bernie ticket would be like Starmer replacing Reeves with Burgon. Not going to happen.
Whitmer - Warnock
Ipsos finds only Michelle Obama does better than Biden v Trump
'According to a new poll on Tuesday conducted by Reuters and Ipsos, the former first lady is the only Democrat that is able to attain victory over Trump in November in a hypothetical match, leading with 50% support compared to his 39%.
In its findings, Ipsos wrote:
All other hypothetical Democratic candidates either perform similarly to or worse than Biden against Trump.
Vice-president Kamala Harris hypothetically wins 42% of registered voters to Trump’s 43%. California Governor Gavin Newsom hypothetically wins 39% of registered voters to Trump’s 42%.
This has absolutely nothing to do with political betting but can I just put on record that I HATE daylight savings. My favourite night is invariably the one they go back to GMT. And my least favourite is when we go to BST. It's part of this tyranny of early to rise makes an earthworm a cunt or whatever it is absolute scumbag normie twats promoting this pseudoscientific nonsense calendar adjustment which tortures us night owls even more during what should be the most productive months of the year. And being a night owl is correlated with intelligence, creativity, attractiveness, being a good gambler too (see Titanic Thompson) AND SUICIDE BECAUSE OF THIS HORRIFIC SOCIETAL BIAS
I would be quite happy to stick with GMT the whole year. Unfortunately I suspect the morons would insist on having BST the whole year istead whch would be vile.
Moron here. GMT equals waiting till evenings are getting really shit and then making it worse, and then rectifying the situation when things have improved so much anyway that nobody cares.
All year GMT is better for people who do more stuff in natural light between 5.30 and 8.30 in the morning than they do between 4.30 and 7.30 in the afternoon. All year BST is better for the rest of us.
How about those who want to go to work in the light? Particularly the northern half of the country. It does nothing matter north of Watford Gap?
I'd be open to a compromise - bring forward BST by three weeks.
Would Kamala Harris just take over as candidate for the election, or would she actually become president before then?
That’s up to Biden, I guess.
One benefit of going with Kamala Harris instead of the better-polling alternatives is that they could keep that card to play it when they needed it: Biden can stay on as president for now, but at any point he can stand down on grounds of ill health and they get a media cycle of an inauguration, first woman president, a couple of decisive decisions that break from Biden in carefully selected swing-voter-targeting ways etc etc etc.
It's a bit more complex than that. You can't just casually swap out a sitting president with a new president and say Actually this is the candidate, sorry everyone
What about the campaign funds? Who gets them? Can they simply be given to the new person? Is that fair and legally watertight? I can see all kinds of complications, and I can also see voters reacting very negatively to the Democrats treating them like idiots - Yeah. we've known for ages he's demented, we thought we could fool you, seems we can't, try this person instead
Not good
If Biden is going to quit - and of course he should - it needs to happen really soon
No, I mean you'd do the two things separately, ie Biden would quit as nominee soon, and certainly before the convention which is also before the ballot deadlines and so forth, but then potentially quit as *president* at a later date as and when Kamala's campaign finds it useful. IIUC the campaign funds and related infrastructure transfer smoothly to Kamala Harris, because it's the Biden-Harris campaign that's raising them.
Yep. The funny thing will be if any of these people get seriously stung with a tax that had never even entered their heads.
If Labour wants to do any of their pet projects (on top of just day to day managing) they are going to have to introduce some serious tax rises. And with IT, NI and VAT ruled out they will have to go into new areas.
I don't know - how about extending IHT to lifetime gifts with tax payable on the spot. Bank of Mum and Dad wants to fund a house deposit - 20% (or maybe 40%?) tax payable on the spot on the transfer.
When they get clobbered with that they'll think why on earth didn't they vote for the Conservatives offering sod all. Because sod all would have been infinitely preferable.
Labour have painted themselves into a corner on taxation, they have ruled out most of the main options, and fiscal drag is already baked in to the plans. Also it is very unlikely that growth will be as fast or as large as necessary to close the tax gap. So there are likely to be a lot of indirect tax rises, and many of those are going to make a lot of people quite angry I expect.
Reeves could have her very own omnishambles budget.. this very year.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
Yep. The funny thing will be if any of these people get seriously stung with a tax that had never even entered their heads.
If Labour wants to do any of their pet projects (on top of just day to day managing) they are going to have to introduce some serious tax rises. And with IT, NI and VAT ruled out they will have to go into new areas.
I don't know - how about extending IHT to lifetime gifts with tax payable on the spot. Bank of Mum and Dad wants to fund a house deposit - 20% (or maybe 40%?) tax payable on the spot on the transfer.
When they get clobbered with that they'll think why on earth didn't they vote for the Conservatives offering sod all. Because sod all would have been infinitely preferable.
Yes, it's essentially a failure of imagination.
SKS strategy is entirely logical. Say nothing- and allow everyone to project onto him what they'd like to be believe - and run the campaign entirely as a referendum on the Conservatives. Cynical, but effective.
The problem comes when he tries to go for a second term..
Labour down a bit in these last few polls.....will it continue in the polling booth?
If the system was one person one vote then Tories and reform coalition. If the poll is correct?
The system is one person one vote.
If the system were PR, which is what I think you mean, Con + Ref wouldn't be able to command a majority. And since none of Lab, Ld or Green would join them, you'd have a Lab/LD/Green coalition.
I think the mistake you make is the one that many people make when looking at PR - they expect the party vote percentages to stay pretty much as they are now. Many people do not vote for minor parties because they consider them wasted votes. That changes when you have PR and people see an actual result for their vote.
Moreover you should take a warning from France. Whilst they don't have PR as such, it has always been assumed that their style of election over sucessive weekends would keep the extremists out because, even if they got through the first round, the non extremist majority would coalesce around a moderate opponent. But in France the extremists on each side have hollowed out the centre ground so it no longer exists in any meaningful manner. Now you have a choice of hard left wing extremism or hard right wing extremism.
Assumptions the majority will always vote for the centre are sadly deluded.
You only have to look across the Atlantic to see that FPTP also has its issues with regard to extremism.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
Yep. The funny thing will be if any of these people get seriously stung with a tax that had never even entered their heads.
If Labour wants to do any of their pet projects (on top of just day to day managing) they are going to have to introduce some serious tax rises. And with IT, NI and VAT ruled out they will have to go into new areas.
I don't know - how about extending IHT to lifetime gifts with tax payable on the spot. Bank of Mum and Dad wants to fund a house deposit - 20% (or maybe 40%?) tax payable on the spot on the transfer.
When they get clobbered with that they'll think why on earth didn't they vote for the Conservatives offering sod all. Because sod all would have been infinitely preferable.
Yes, it's essentially a failure of imagination.
SKS strategy is entirely logical. Say nothing- and allow everyone to project onto him what they'd like to be believe - and run the campaign entirely as a referendum on the Conservatives. Cynical, but effective.
The problem comes when he tries to go for a second term..
They said that in 1997 and 2010.
Yes, it is perfectly possible, but it's like 'good election to lose', no certainty.
This has absolutely nothing to do with political betting but can I just put on record that I HATE daylight savings. My favourite night is invariably the one they go back to GMT. And my least favourite is when we go to BST. It's part of this tyranny of early to rise makes an earthworm a cunt or whatever it is absolute scumbag normie twats promoting this pseudoscientific nonsense calendar adjustment which tortures us night owls even more during what should be the most productive months of the year. And being a night owl is correlated with intelligence, creativity, attractiveness, being a good gambler too (see Titanic Thompson) AND SUICIDE BECAUSE OF THIS HORRIFIC SOCIETAL BIAS
I would be quite happy to stick with GMT the whole year. Unfortunately I suspect the morons would insist on having BST the whole year istead whch would be vile.
Moron here. GMT equals waiting till evenings are getting really shit and then making it worse, and then rectifying the situation when things have improved so much anyway that nobody cares.
All year GMT is better for people who do more stuff in natural light between 5.30 and 8.30 in the morning than they do between 4.30 and 7.30 in the afternoon. All year BST is better for the rest of us.
How about those who want to go to work in the light? Particularly the northern half of the country. It does nothing matter north of Watford Gap?
Indeed if you have a long commute and/or you work an early shift you might do better with GMT. On the basis that different people can't have different timezones to suit themselves, the 80% case is better served by BST.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
It's the opposite of irrational. The Tories' record is so bad - quite possibly the worst in modern history - and for many people they have been pursuing policies whose results seem actively malicious towards them. They are utterly discredited in many eyes that means people want a different approach - much as that may pain you that your team and its ideas have completely failed people.
The entirely irrational thing would be voting Conservative if you feel failed by the government. Einstein and the definition of insanity and all that.
If you are around 35 and a middle earning professional (a group who used to be key swing voters), so have lived under the Tories all your adult life, you have found it more difficult to buy your own home, and earn less in real terms than your 2010 doppelganger did. Your local amenities are worse. You wait longer for any NHS treatment and are unlikely to be able to find an NHS dentist. Oh and if you wanted to get away, you now can't live, work or study easily in loads of places you could in 2010.
We could go on listing these things that have got worse - but on top of this the Tories give every impression that they don't like you, and don't value or even consider your views. Britain feels genuinely broken and what's worse you don't think the Conservatives have a plan to fix it and help you.
So of course it's entirely rational to vote Labour. Warnings about 'socialism' aren't scary because you haven't had the kind of tax cuts that might make you feel better off, nor has the economy grown at any reasonable clip over the past 14 years.
You see a crumbling, meaner, less effective state, low growth, and some of the downright toxicity that emanates from the Tory benches and of course you are more receptive to Labour's arguments about needing to take on a more activist role in fixing things, and raising taxes high earners or those with wealth tend to pay to do so.
You are fully aware that you don't agree with Labour on everything, and know that there might be a time when you're on the wrong end of a decision they make. But frankly, you decide they can't be worse than the other lot and they at least give the impression they like people like me and look like they listen now and again. It's not a difficult rational choice to make.
So in this case you do sound a bit like a Corbynite blaming the electorate for not seeing the Wonders of St. Jeremy, when of course for many rejecting him was also for entirely rational reasons based on the evidence of their eyes. So it is now with the Conservatives. As it was for Labour, the answer is to listen to people and why they are upset with you and prefer the other lot, not to think they are "irrational" for doing so.
The problem with this is assuming that Labour will do any better, or have a plan.
The Conservatives are awful. Genuinely, awful. The question is do Labour have a plan for better, or is it more managed decline?
This Conservative government is the worst in my lifetime. Yet the election campaign has not convinced me that Labour have a plan for the economy or will be any better.
I remember the sense of optimism in 1997 - "things can only get better". But people aren't voting Labour for that reason in 2024, they're voting Labour because the Conservatives have done so badly, they don't believe things can get any worse.
And Labour would really have to make a quite prodigious and historically unprecedented effort to make it any worse. Hence the polling.
Would Kamala Harris just take over as candidate for the election, or would she actually become president before then?
That’s up to Biden, I guess.
One benefit of going with Kamala Harris instead of the better-polling alternatives is that they could keep that card to play it when they needed it: Biden can stay on as president for now, but at any point he can stand down on grounds of ill health and they get a media cycle of an inauguration, first woman president, a couple of decisive decisions that break from Biden in carefully selected swing-voter-targeting ways etc etc etc.
It's a bit more complex than that. You can't just casually swap out a sitting president with a new president and say Actually this is the candidate, sorry everyone
What about the campaign funds? Who gets them? Can they simply be given to the new person? Is that fair and legally watertight? I can see all kinds of complications, and I can also see voters reacting very negatively to the Democrats treating them like idiots - Yeah. we've known for ages he's demented, we thought we could fool you, seems we can't, try this person instead
Not good
If Biden is going to quit - and of course he should - it needs to happen really soon
I don’t think the funds are a problem if it’s Harris; anyone else, yes, a bit awkward.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
I think it’s unfair to characterise it as purely emotional. Just because you don’t think people should switch to Labour doesn’t mean they are ridiculous for doing so or somehow don’t understand the impact of it.
I freely admit that I will be a critical friend to Labour to start off and it is entirely likely that after a couple of years I’ll be sick of them. They might have failed to get a grip on things and they might have been wholly unambitious with their huge majority and they might be reverting to type and doing their New Labour “we know best” authoritarian act which I personally couldn’t stand in the Blair years. But for me, right now, they are the best hope we have of getting some meaningful change, which we need, and therefore they can have my vote.
It’s tough being a Tory voter right now. I understand why people do feel they need to still support the party. But I can’t. Not this time.
You could abstain or go independent.
Because otherwise SKS will bank your support and claim it as a mandate for precisely whatever he wants.
So is Biden done? Harris / Sanders ticket incoming?
Sanders is like bolting Corbyn on to the ticket. Yes, he's still sharp. But he is seriously left wing for main stream US politics.
We need Biden to walk the plank first. I don't mind Harris but Whitmer with a VP who is a Representative/ Senator from a rust belt swing state makes sense.
A Harris-Bernie ticket would be like Starmer replacing Reeves with Burgon. Not going to happen.
Whitmer - Warnock
Ipsos finds only Michelle Obama does better than Biden v Trump
'According to a new poll on Tuesday conducted by Reuters and Ipsos, the former first lady is the only Democrat that is able to attain victory over Trump in November in a hypothetical match, leading with 50% support compared to his 39%.
In its findings, Ipsos wrote:
All other hypothetical Democratic candidates either perform similarly to or worse than Biden against Trump.
Vice-president Kamala Harris hypothetically wins 42% of registered voters to Trump’s 43%. California Governor Gavin Newsom hypothetically wins 39% of registered voters to Trump’s 42%.
There have been enough straws in the wind; I am now calling it. The Tories are just going to have a disaster tomorrow night, rather than the catastrophe that they deserve.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
Yep. The funny thing will be if any of these people get seriously stung with a tax that had never even entered their heads.
If Labour wants to do any of their pet projects (on top of just day to day managing) they are going to have to introduce some serious tax rises. And with IT, NI and VAT ruled out they will have to go into new areas.
I don't know - how about extending IHT to lifetime gifts with tax payable on the spot. Bank of Mum and Dad wants to fund a house deposit - 20% (or maybe 40%?) tax payable on the spot on the transfer.
When they get clobbered with that they'll think why on earth didn't they vote for the Conservatives offering sod all. Because sod all would have been infinitely preferable.
Yes, it's essentially a failure of imagination.
SKS strategy is entirely logical. Say nothing- and allow everyone to project onto him what they'd like to be believe - and run the campaign entirely as a referendum on the Conservatives. Cynical, but effective.
The problem comes when he tries to go for a second term..
They said that in 1997 and 2010.
Yes, it is perfectly possible, but it's like 'good election to lose', no certainty.
Getting back in is hard. Don’t go back to Tory chaos will be a powerful statement for a good while.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
If by some fluke the Conservatives got a majority tomorrow, then by Monday they'd be back at the in-fighting and where would that get us?
Don't be silly. Labour are going to get a massive majority.
This is now about whether you want to live in a one-party state for the next 5 years, or not.
Comments
And we all agree that this is an absurd excuse from the Dems. Even if Biden isn't senile (he is) a POTUS should not be rendered incoherent 12 days after a flight, flying around the world is part of his job, and so he's not fit for the job
And besides, he IS gaga
I am more worried about the possible tilt towards authoritarianism and 'progressive' initiatives to try and re-engineer society, be this through social policy, criminal justice policy etc. Very worrying, particularly given the enormous majority they will probably have.
Rishi Sunak walking to his polling station.
Keir Starmer walking to his polling station.
Ed Davey parachuting in to his polling station.
Lab 37/39/38/39 Ave 38.25
Con24/24/19/23 Ave 22.5
Lead 13/15/19/16 Ave 15.75
Norstat/ JL Partners/ Lord Ash/ More in Common
It was revealed that Biden had been coached for seven days prior to the debate. The chances of any jetlag still being evident are basically nil.
It was just used as an excuse.
The United States is approaching a fairly critical moment here. Either Biden stands aside and allows someone (anyone) young to run to defeat Trump in November, or it becomes.... at best a dysfunctional flawed state with limited democracy, or at worse a fascist state.
Anyone know what Jesus’s line was on bump stocks for concealed carry weapons for babies?
SKS Maj of 60 is my final prediction
Tomorrow, Peter Dowd will get 82% of the vote in Bootle.
Everyone hates the Labour Party in Bootle..... except on General Election day.
The following day you wake at about 10am feeling fine, and jetlag is basically avoided. Works a treat - for me; others struggle
Labour 467
LDs 72
Conservative 68
SNP 15
Reform 3
Green 3
PC 3
NI 18
Other 1 (Speaker)
'According to a new poll on Tuesday conducted by Reuters and Ipsos, the former first lady is the only Democrat that is able to attain victory over Trump in November in a hypothetical match, leading with 50% support compared to his 39%.
In its findings, Ipsos wrote:
All other hypothetical Democratic candidates either perform similarly to or worse than Biden against Trump.
Vice-president Kamala Harris hypothetically wins 42% of registered voters to Trump’s 43%. California Governor Gavin Newsom hypothetically wins 39% of registered voters to Trump’s 42%.
All other hypothetical Democratic candidates earn between 34% to 39% of potential votes among registered voters.'
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/jul/03/biden-debate-democrats-kamala-harris-election-updates
The entirely irrational thing would be voting Conservative if you feel failed by the government. Einstein and the definition of insanity and all that.
If you are around 35 and a middle earning professional (a group who used to be key swing voters), so have lived under the Tories all your adult life, you have found it more difficult to buy your own home, and earn less in real terms than your 2010 doppelganger did. Your local amenities are worse. You wait longer for any NHS treatment and are unlikely to be able to find an NHS dentist. Oh and if you wanted to get away, you now can't live, work or study easily in loads of places you could in 2010.
We could go on listing these things that have got worse - but on top of this the Tories give every impression that they don't like you, and don't value or even consider your views. Britain feels genuinely broken and what's worse you don't think the Conservatives have a plan to fix it and help you.
So of course it's entirely rational to vote Labour. Warnings about 'socialism' aren't scary because you haven't had the kind of tax cuts that might make you feel better off, nor has the economy grown at any reasonable clip over the past 14 years.
You see a crumbling, meaner, less effective state, low growth, and some of the downright toxicity that emanates from the Tory benches and of course you are more receptive to Labour's arguments about needing to take on a more activist role in fixing things, and raising taxes high earners or those with wealth tend to pay to do so.
You are fully aware that you don't agree with Labour on everything, and know that there might be a time when you're on the wrong end of a decision they make. But frankly, you decide they can't be worse than the other lot and they at least give the impression they like people like me and look like they listen now and again. It's not a difficult rational choice to make.
So in this case you do sound a bit like a Corbynite blaming the electorate for not seeing the Wonders of St. Jeremy, when of course for many rejecting him was also for entirely rational reasons based on the evidence of their eyes. So it is now with the Conservatives. As it was for Labour, the answer is to listen to people and why they are upset with you and prefer the other lot, not to think they are "irrational" for doing so.
Lab 424
Con127
LD 49
SNP 22
Gr 2
PC 3
REF 2
OTH 3
NI 18
Turnout 61%
Based upon looking at my local seats, and a feeling in my bones.
Moreover you should take a warning from France. Whilst they don't have PR as such, it has always been assumed that their style of election over sucessive weekends would keep the extremists out because, even if they got through the first round, the non extremist majority would coalesce around a moderate opponent. But in France the extremists on each side have hollowed out the centre ground so it no longer exists in any meaningful manner. Now you have a choice of hard left wing extremism or hard right wing extremism.
Assumptions the majority will always vote for the centre are sadly deluded.
Are you Mrs, or Hunter, Biden in disguise? Are you a senior Democrat? If not why do you frame this as being about being pro or con good ol' Joe? Your response to the suggestion that Biden is senile is, roughly, Yebbut Trump is senile and also smells of wee so I win. To be pro Biden staying in office is to be pro an inevitable Trump victory. How difficult is this point?
What about the campaign funds? Who gets them? Can they simply be given to the new person? Is that fair and legally watertight? I can see all kinds of complications, and I can also see voters reacting very negatively to the Democrats treating them like idiots - Yeah. we've known for ages he's demented, we thought we could fool you, seems we can't, try this person instead
Not good
If Biden is going to quit - and of course he should - it needs to happen really soon
That should really, really cut into the jet lag.
And the GOP are not exactly strangers to shenanigans.
I hope their model proves correct!
The Conservatives are awful. Genuinely, awful. The question is do Labour have a plan for better, or is it more managed decline?
This Conservative government is the worst in my lifetime. Yet the election campaign has not convinced me that Labour have a plan for the economy or will be any better.
I remember the sense of optimism in 1997 - "things can only get better". But people aren't voting Labour for that reason in 2024, they're voting Labour because the Conservatives have done so badly, they don't believe things can get any worse.
Not long now till blessed relief.
SKS strategy is entirely logical. Say nothing- and allow everyone to project onto him what they'd like to be believe - and run the campaign entirely as a referendum on the Conservatives. Cynical, but effective.
The problem comes when he tries to go for a second term..
This only gets him into office. It doesn't keep him there.
We don't go to work in the light in the winter, nor come home in it, as it is.
But who knows, maybe the current Con party appeals to DUP or TUV voters?
Hence the polling.
*new Inland Revenue Levy replacing Income Tax and National Insurance
Because otherwise SKS will bank your support and claim it as a mandate for precisely whatever he wants.
And he absolutely won't listen to you.
Lab 420
Con 121
LD 45
SNP 26
Ref 10
PC 4
Workers 1
Green 3
Speaker 1
Corbyn 1
SF 7
DUP 5
UUP 2
Alliance 3
SDLP 1
Turnout 65%
This is now about whether you want to live in a one-party state for the next 5 years, or not.