On turnout. Two of my close friends both 29 yo have never been registered to vote. TIL that they've both been bothered to register, and will be voting Labour tomorrow, having read summaries of the main Parties' policies Online. I don't know if that means anything at all, really, but I was surprised to say the least. I wonder if getting them to drop me off at the polling station for the May locals had any effect? (I never have talked politics with them. They were surprised I was voting Labour too).
My parents took me to the polling station when I was a teenager. Maybe if you've never been it seems scary, and it's easier to stay at home.
Yeah. Had a chat with the female. She said politics was never discussed at all at home. And she was unaware if her mother had ever voted or not. She still said she had no real idea. But the "bad Party" wanted 18 year olds to join the Army and send people to Rwanda. I think The Bad Party is the kind of rebrand the incompetents at CCHQ will probably have on their shortlist.
So a depressing but perhaps utterly predictable update from my Surrey tory friend.
For weeks she has told me that for the first time in her life she wouldn’t vote for the Conservatives, that she would vote LibDem or Labour (edit or even Green), that the tory party had left her behind not the other way around, that she dislikes Rishi Sunak, that people like Badenoch and Braverman are thoroughly nasty etc. etc. etc.
And tonight? She has told me ...
… that she is voting Conservative
Why? Because her MP Jonathan Lord helped Seema Misa the sub post mistress who was imprisoned whilst pregnant whilst the LibDems’ Ed Davey didn’t listen.
To be honest, I resigned myself to her staying blue. I didn’t criticise her though I did gently point out that she could be voting for Badenoch or Braverman (whom she professes to loathe).
A certain, perhaps significant, number always return to the fold.
Cons 100-200 seats is very much in play in my opinion.
I’ve said for a long time that in the moment of seclusion in the booth, many who have professed to be deserting the Tories will slide back into the old habit. I may be wrong but I expertbthe Tories up 2-3 points on the polling. Nowhere near enough to matter, but I think the pollsters will be wondering about methodology yet again.
Long time lurker here! Spotted a couple of interesting bets available, In East Surrey, Claire Coutinho is defending a 24k majority for the Tories. It's a very long shot, but Yougov's last MRP has her on 34%, ahead of the Lib Dems who have 28%. Lib Dems are 20/1 on Skybet and bet365.
In Scotland, Amy Callaghan is defending a notional majority of 1,986 for the SNP over a Lib Dem challenge in Mid Dunbartonshire. This seat has had boundary changes and will be a slightly tougher nut to crack than the former East Dunbartonshire seat. It's likely to go Lib Dem but you can still get 8/1 on SNP again via Skybet and bet365. Yougov have the seat as an SNP hold on their final MRP
Stuff like this has no predictive value. He has to say that until he reaches a final decision, he can't say, "I might quit because I'm too old, otoh maybe I'm fine and you should vote for me, let me think about it".
I'm surprised phone pollsters get anyone to engage these days. I would assume its a scammer or spammer.
Mind you I think I have been on their "blacklist" since the Constitution Hill incident a few years back and get very few spam calls now.
[Phone Rings]
"Hello I'm calling about the accident you had that wasn't your fault?
>Oh the one this morning, that was quick.
[Goes quiet. Put through to someone else in what seems a big call centre with lots of chatter in the background]
Hello, can you confirm when and where the accident happened.
>10 Oclock this morning in Constitution Hill London. I must say that I am really impressed with how quickly you called me
Can you give me details of the other car involved?
>It wasn't a car it was a coach.
What type of Coach?
>Imperial State.
What was the registration number?
>Couldn't see because of all the horses in front of it.
Er. Ok. Did you get the drivers details?
>Yes. Elizabeth Windsor and her husband Duke Edinburgh.
Thank You. Now can you give me details of your name, car and registrstion number.
[Thinks, time to end this]
>Do you know who Elizabeth Windsor is?
No, who?
>The Queen.
[Long Pause]
THE QUEEN?
[Line goes dead]
I know, I know. Phil the Greek was a terrible driver.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
Would that they were offering Socialism. We'll just have to make do I guess.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
God I really really really really wish that were true. I would love it if we were getting an incoming socialist Government.
Gut-wrenchingly it isn’t true at all. Starmer’s Labour will be bland, middle of the road, and in some ways right of centre. It’s really quite depressing.
But I guess they will be competent and not nasty so that’s something.
Follow up question in news briefing: If the president is jet lagged 12 days after overseas travel, doesn't that raise its own issues?
Honestly, I'm in my 30s and get jetlagged for a few days even when the clocks change twice a year. East coast US - UK takes me a week to fully recover from, and west coast takes me two.
I get it, the President of the US should do better than that: he's got much more experience, and probably lots of pharmaceutical help.
But jetlag is a real issue, no matter how much caffeine and/or amphetamines you have access to.
Yes it is and some get it worse than others.
Last time I went out to Asia I hadn’t really recovered for 2 weeks and I’m very fit and healthy.
No you are not, if that's true. And anyway if you want to be a world statesman you are claiming to be world class at a lot of things, including regular long haul travel. I mean I cycled 70 miles 10 days ago and it took me 4 days to recover, but I am not going to proffer that as an excuse for Vingegaard underperforming today.
You’re confusing two different things if I may say so.
I’m not giving an excuse for Joe Biden’s debate performance and if this is the latest one, coming after having a cold, or not having his afternoon nap, then it’s pretty risible.
But jetlag is a strange thing and can sometimes hit you for a couple of weeks. Especially if you mess up the flight timings as I did on that occasion. Other times it hardly affects me.
But I note you profess to be my medic which is a new point of departure in an increasingly hostile frame of reference on here. I am, in fact, exceptionally fit and healthy (well always touch wood etc) with a resting pulse of 45. I run and walk loads, gym workouts, yoga etc. I have blood test MOTs every 6 months and my endocrinologist, who spoke to me just two days ago, is delighted.
But, hey, if you think you know best ...
As the PBer who probably flies the most, I tend to agree. Some people seem to get letlag really badly, and some don't, and it's not necessarily basic health or fitness that determines this. it's almost random. Also if you travel a lot (like me) then your body gets used to clock changes and jetlag diminishes over the years
And yet despite that, sometimes I can be whacked by jetlag out of nowhere, and for no obvious reason - and a long haul flight that I would normally shrug off leaves me hazy for a week. It must be complexly linked to biorhythms and hormonal changes and diet/exercise - so many imponderables it is impossible to untangle them
However, blaming Biden's debate performance on jetlag is so ridiculous it is insulting. He is senile, and it's getting worse, and that's all there is to it. He needs to quit or he will lose badly to Trump
Honestly, I'm in my 30s and get jetlagged for a few days even when the clocks change twice a year.
This has absolutely nothing to do with political betting but can I just put on record that I HATE daylight savings. My favourite night is invariably the one they go back to GMT. And my least favourite is when we go to BST. It's part of this tyranny of early to rise makes an earthworm a cunt or whatever it is absolute scumbag normie twats promoting this pseudoscientific nonsense calendar adjustment which tortures us night owls even more during what should be the most productive months of the year. And being a night owl is correlated with intelligence, creativity, attractiveness, being a good gambler too (see Titanic Thompson) AND SUICIDE BECAUSE OF THIS HORRIFIC SOCIETAL BIAS
On turnout. Two of my close friends both 29 yo have never been registered to vote. TIL that they've both been bothered to register, and will be voting Labour tomorrow, having read summaries of the main Parties' policies Online. I don't know if that means anything at all, really, but I was surprised to say the least. I wonder if getting them to drop me off at the polling station for the May locals had any effect? (I never have talked politics with them. They were surprised I was voting Labour too).
My parents took me to the polling station when I was a teenager. Maybe if you've never been it seems scary, and it's easier to stay at home.
Yeah. Had a chat with the female. She said politics was never discussed at all at home. And she was unaware if her mother had ever voted or not. She still said she had no real idea. But the "bad Party" wanted 18 year olds to join the Army and send people to Rwanda. I think The Bad Party is the kind of rebrand the incompetents at CCHQ will probably have on their shortlist.
So who is the good? The Ugly? Labour good. No. Lib Dems Good. No. There is no good. The ugly. Easy. Nige and Co.
Stuff like this has no predictive value. He has to say that until he reaches a final decision, he can't say, "I might quit because I'm too old, otoh maybe I'm fine and you should vote for me, let me think about it".
I'm surprised phone pollsters get anyone to engage these days. I would assume its a scammer or spammer.
Mind you I think I have been on their "blacklist" since the Constitution Hill incident a few years back and get very few spam calls now.
[Phone Rings]
"Hello I'm calling about the accident you had that wasn't your fault?
>Oh the one this morning, that was quick.
[Goes quiet. Put through to someone else in what seems a big call centre with lots of chatter in the background]
Hello, can you confirm when and where the accident happened.
>10 Oclock this morning in Constitution Hill London. I must say that I am really impressed with how quickly you called me
Can you give me details of the other car involved?
>It wasn't a car it was a coach.
What type of Coach?
>Imperial State.
What was the registration number?
>Couldn't see because of all the horses in front of it.
Er. Ok. Did you get the drivers details?
>Yes. Elizabeth Windsor and her husband Duke Edinburgh.
Thank You. Now can you give me details of your name, car and registrstion number.
[Thinks, time to end this]
>Do you know who Elizabeth Windsor is?
No, who?
>The Queen.
[Long Pause]
THE QUEEN?
[Line goes dead]
I had pretty much that exact conversation at Badminton horse trials this year. Old lady sitting at the same table as me had some sort of apoplexy deal. I ring 999. Badminton. Badminton House Gloucestershire. No I don't know the postcode. No the house does not have a street number. No I cannot tell you the street. No I am not being deliberately unhelpful. Etc.
They're offering the most centrist programme since 2005, I'd say they're virtually on par with Brown in 2010, the most left wing policy is railway nationalisation which is free!
Schadenfreude is what makes an election. My dream list of eight losers in order:
Farage Corbyn Galloway Lee Anderson Carla Denver Fazia Shaheen Truss Sunak
Fewer than three of them would be disappointing. Four would be par, and six/ seven ecstasy.
No Jenrick? Might as well make it an even number after adding Mercer.
I understand the reasons, but I’m pretty indifferent to him. And with the Moggster I now have my ten. Thanks PB for helping me refine the card.
Hey, it is your list. I can't argue with your top seven. I have no desire to see Sunak defenestrated and I suspect it is unlikely anyway. And Mercer, absolutely. Philip Davies would be a nice addition too, but Jenrick, you'll regret not sending him in for an early bath.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
I think Brexit has "radicalized" the right - Hence Con > Ref and Covid/lockdown has seen the country move quite a bit to the left.
Then you have the "One Nation" Conservatives who are perfectly happy voting Lib-Dem now Corbyn's been replaced by SKS.
Added to that all the Tory cock ups and shenanigans that have gone on since 2019, Truss, five Chancellors, etc. and it's a perfect storm for the Conservatives.
If they can survive this election and come back one day, they are literally indestructible lol!
Starmer is the best option for PM, but this should not blind anyone to his sustained record of saying whatever is required to get to the next stage of the journey. What he says now about EU, SM etc is as reliable as what he said in 2019 about Jezza being a brilliant candidate for PM.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
I honestly understand. As you will be hit by VAT on school fees, so will I eventually as unless something either unusually bad or unusually good happens it's my intent to send my daughter and any future kids to private school. I will almost certainly be stuffed by CGT increases like @kyf_100. I can realistically expect IHT to cause me issues too.
But it's still more important to me to kick the Tories in the face.
What I don't think you're quite getting is that this isn't emotional. Emotions drive it sure - they do *any* human decision. We emote first and rationalise later. So maybe I'm rationalising later. But I can claim the same about you. Let's call a truce there and go with my rationalisation. Which is that it's deterrence. To say that it's not acceptable to behave and legislate like this and expect to stay in power. To say that it's not acceptable to screw my generation and those younger over.
I'm even a member of the conservative party btw. Just to vote for sanity in the future if it is what emerges from the ashses.
It may be that a different liberal or centre-right party comes about instead - I'd love orange book lib dems. In which case I'll join it.
But this...thing... that dares to call itself the natural party of government... delenda est.
Long time lurker here! Spotted a couple of interesting bets available, In East Surrey, Claire Coutinho is defending a 24k majority for the Tories. It's a very long shot, but Yougov's last MRP has her on 34%, ahead of the Lib Dems who have 28%. Lib Dems are 20/1 on Skybet and bet365.
In Scotland, Amy Callaghan is defending a notional majority of 1,986 for the SNP over a Lib Dem challenge in Mid Dunbartonshire. This seat has had boundary changes and will be a slightly tougher nut to crack than the former East Dunbartonshire seat. It's likely to go Lib Dem but you can still get 8/1 on SNP again via Skybet and bet365. Yougov have the seat as an SNP hold on their final MRP
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
Yep. The funny thing will be if any of these people get seriously stung with a tax that had never even entered their heads.
If Labour wants to do any of their pet projects (on top of just day to day managing) they are going to have to introduce some serious tax rises. And with IT, NI and VAT ruled out they will have to go into new areas.
I don't know - how about extending IHT to lifetime gifts with tax payable on the spot. Bank of Mum and Dad wants to fund a house deposit - 20% (or maybe 40%?) tax payable on the spot on the transfer.
When they get clobbered with that they'll think why on earth didn't they vote for the Conservatives offering sod all. Because sod all would have been infinitely preferable.
Starmer is the best option for PM, but this should not blind anyone to his sustained record of saying whatever is required to get to the next stage of the journey. What he says now about EU, SM etc is as reliable as what he said in 2019 about Jezza being a brilliant candidate for PM.
When my boss changes, I change my mind. What do you do sir?
So a depressing but perhaps utterly predictable update from my Surrey tory friend.
For weeks she has told me that for the first time in her life she wouldn’t vote for the Conservatives, that she would vote LibDem or Labour (edit or even Green), that the tory party had left her behind not the other way around, that she dislikes Rishi Sunak, that people like Badenoch and Braverman are thoroughly nasty etc. etc. etc.
And tonight? She has told me ...
… that she is voting Conservative
Why? Because her MP Jonathan Lord helped Seema Misa the sub post mistress who was imprisoned whilst pregnant whilst the LibDems’ Ed Davey didn’t listen.
To be honest, I resigned myself to her staying blue. I didn’t criticise her though I did gently point out that she could be voting for Badenoch or Braverman (whom she professes to loathe).
A certain, perhaps significant, number always return to the fold.
Cons 100-200 seats is very much in play in my opinion.
Kind-of yes. I am in agreement with @Casino_Royale@turbotubbs and others that a significant number will put their X for Cons in the privacy of the polling booth.
That she told me is perhaps the surprising thing. Maybe it’s because I’m such an open-hearted and magnanimous gal
On the betting front, 50/1 available on reform in Christchurch. Very white, old and conservative area. I can see Con slumping to the low 30s % and UKIP got 21.5% in 2015 50/1 looks great value
Unlikely. But I've had one English pound on at 100/1 cheers.
where? bf is 7
Done it again sorry. Got ashfield mixed up.with Ashford and now Christchurch mixed up with Chichester. Sorry all.
But Ladbrokes are 33/1 reform Christchurch which is much better than that BF 7. Prefer my messed up Chichester bet tbh.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
You have stuck to your guns throughout which is admirable. But the Tories are so utterly, utterly bereft of ideas, basic ability to govern, or moral compass, that it seems irrational to vote for them in this state.
I can see a rational argument to vote Tory: you don't want them to go extinct, and/or be replaced by Reform. Labour are bound to win anyway, so, to preserve the Tories as the Opposition with a chance of returning to power, you give them your vote, even if you disdain their doings and despair of their ineptitude. They may get a good new leader and have some decent ideas, it is not impossible
Not for me tho. I want them to die, firstly as a condign punishment and secnodly for the lolz and thirdly as creative destruction, so a new rightwing party with cullions can replace them
Follow up question in news briefing: If the president is jet lagged 12 days after overseas travel, doesn't that raise its own issues?
Honestly, I'm in my 30s and get jetlagged for a few days even when the clocks change twice a year. East coast US - UK takes me a week to fully recover from, and west coast takes me two.
I get it, the President of the US should do better than that: he's got much more experience, and probably lots of pharmaceutical help.
But jetlag is a real issue, no matter how much caffeine and/or amphetamines you have access to.
Yes it is and some get it worse than others.
Last time I went out to Asia I hadn’t really recovered for 2 weeks and I’m very fit and healthy.
No you are not, if that's true. And anyway if you want to be a world statesman you are claiming to be world class at a lot of things, including regular long haul travel. I mean I cycled 70 miles 10 days ago and it took me 4 days to recover, but I am not going to proffer that as an excuse for Vingegaard underperforming today.
You’re confusing two different things if I may say so.
I’m not giving an excuse for Joe Biden’s debate performance and if this is the latest one, coming after having a cold, or not having his afternoon nap, then it’s pretty risible.
But jetlag is a strange thing and can sometimes hit you for a couple of weeks. Especially if you mess up the flight timings as I did on that occasion. Other times it hardly affects me.
But I note you profess to be my medic which is a new point of departure in an increasingly hostile frame of reference on here. I am, in fact, exceptionally fit and healthy (well always touch wood etc) with a resting pulse of 45. I run and walk loads, gym workouts, yoga etc. I have blood test MOTs every 6 months and my endocrinologist, who spoke to me just two days ago, is delighted.
But, hey, if you think you know best ...
As the PBer who probably flies the most, I tend to agree. Some people seem to get letlag really badly, and some don't, and it's not necessarily basic health or fitness that determines this. it's almost random. Also if you travel a lot (like me) then your body gets used to clock changes and jetlag diminishes over the years
And yet despite that, sometimes I can be whacked by jetlag out of nowhere, and for no obvious reason - and a long haul flight that I would normally shrug off leaves me hazy for a week. It must be complexly linked to biorhythms and hormonal changes and diet/exercise - so many imponderables it is impossible to untangle them
However, blaming Biden's debate performance on jetlag is so ridiculous it is insulting. He is senile, and it's getting worse, and that's all there is to it. He needs to quit or he will lose badly to Trump
On the betting front, 50/1 available on reform in Christchurch. Very white, old and conservative area. I can see Con slumping to the low 30s % and UKIP got 21.5% in 2015 50/1 looks great value
Unlikely. But I've had one English pound on at 100/1 cheers.
where? bf is 7
Done it again sorry. Got ashfield mixed up.with Ashford and now Christchurch mixed up with Chichester. Sorry all.
Heh. I did one of these today.
At least it is only £1.
In Ashfield you get three dinners with a 10% service charge for £1, and 1p change.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
So will I 👍
Well after the utter fiasco of the last five years, I think you both must have serious masochism issues. I'd find a good therapist and work it out. What? You were expecting a pat on the head?
This has absolutely nothing to do with political betting but can I just put on record that I HATE daylight savings. My favourite night is invariably the one they go back to GMT. And my least favourite is when we go to BST. It's part of this tyranny of early to rise makes an earthworm a cunt or whatever it is absolute scumbag normie twats promoting this pseudoscientific nonsense calendar adjustment which tortures us night owls even more during what should be the most productive months of the year. And being a night owl is correlated with intelligence, creativity, attractiveness, being a good gambler too (see Titanic Thompson) AND SUICIDE BECAUSE OF THIS HORRIFIC SOCIETAL BIAS
I would be quite happy to stick with GMT the whole year. Unfortunately I suspect the morons would insist on having BST the whole year istead whch would be vile.
Moron here. GMT equals waiting till evenings are getting really shit and then making it worse, and then rectifying the situation when things have improved so much anyway that nobody cares.
Stuff like this has no predictive value. He has to say that until he reaches a final decision, he can't say, "I might quit because I'm too old, otoh maybe I'm fine and you should vote for me, let me think about it".
While that’s certainly true, I’m beginning to get distinct Ruth Bader Ginsburg vibes from him.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
Yep. The funny thing will be if any of these people get seriously stung with a tax that had never even entered their heads.
If Labour wants to do any of their pet projects (on top of just day to day managing) they are going to have to introduce some serious tax rises. And with IT, NI and VAT ruled out they will have to go into new areas.
I don't know - how about extending IHT to lifetime gifts with tax payable on the spot. Bank of Mum and Dad wants to fund a house deposit - 20% (or maybe 40%?) tax payable on the spot on the transfer.
When they get clobbered with that they'll think why on earth didn't they vote for the Conservatives offering sod all. Because sod all would have been infinitely preferable.
Not everyone values a few extra £k in their bank account versus, say, public services that work, better health services, a fairer society.
I appreciate this is hard for Tories to understand, but there it is.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
Socialism.
An NHS that treats patients.
Schools that educate children.
Trains that serve passengers.
Water companies that don't polute our rivers and seas.
A society at ease with itself.
Let's vote Conservative to avoid such a nightmare.
I am going to vote Labour tomorrow. The main reason is that they are the only vaguely coherant option for the time being, and stability matters. I think this will only last for as long as Starmer keeps a grip on the party, there is a definite risk after that of corbyn like chaos re-emerging. But none of the other options are vaguely credible. I am not a Reform supporter, but I hope they get a reasonable amount of seats reflecting their vote share, so they can widen the parameters of debate, which I think is important.
Honestly, I'm in my 30s and get jetlagged for a few days even when the clocks change twice a year.
This has absolutely nothing to do with political betting but can I just put on record that I HATE daylight savings. My favourite night is invariably the one they go back to GMT. And my least favourite is when we go to BST. It's part of this tyranny of early to rise makes an earthworm a cunt or whatever it is absolute scumbag normie twats promoting this pseudoscientific nonsense calendar adjustment which tortures us night owls even more during what should be the most productive months of the year. And being a night owl is correlated with intelligence, creativity, attractiveness, being a good gambler too (see Titanic Thompson) AND SUICIDE BECAUSE OF THIS HORRIFIC SOCIETAL BIAS
You are Peter Hitchens and I claim my five pounds
Cruising speed on A1(m):
Dumbosaurus: 155mph (limited) Peter Hitchens: 54mph
Number of detectable intoxicating substances in post mortem after Peter Hitchens drove wrong way down A1(m):
Dumbosaurus: 12 (excluding metabolites) Peter Hitchens: 1 (caffeine)
This has absolutely nothing to do with political betting but can I just put on record that I HATE daylight savings. My favourite night is invariably the one they go back to GMT. And my least favourite is when we go to BST. It's part of this tyranny of early to rise makes an earthworm a cunt or whatever it is absolute scumbag normie twats promoting this pseudoscientific nonsense calendar adjustment which tortures us night owls even more during what should be the most productive months of the year. And being a night owl is correlated with intelligence, creativity, attractiveness, being a good gambler too (see Titanic Thompson) AND SUICIDE BECAUSE OF THIS HORRIFIC SOCIETAL BIAS
I would be quite happy to stick with GMT the whole year. Unfortunately I suspect the morons would insist on having BST the whole year istead whch would be vile.
NGL that is a concern. But it'd still be preferable to the status quo. And I hope impossible cause of Shetlands etc.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
I think it’s unfair to characterise it as purely emotional. Just because you don’t think people should switch to Labour doesn’t mean they are ridiculous for doing so or somehow don’t understand the impact of it.
I freely admit that I will be a critical friend to Labour to start off and it is entirely likely that after a couple of years I’ll be sick of them. They might have failed to get a grip on things and they might have been wholly unambitious with their huge majority and they might be reverting to type and doing their New Labour “we know best” authoritarian act which I personally couldn’t stand in the Blair years. But for me, right now, they are the best hope we have of getting some meaningful change, which we need, and therefore they can have my vote.
It’s tough being a Tory voter right now. I understand why people do feel they need to still support the party. But I can’t. Not this time.
Starmer didn't seal the deal. He's losing voters hand over fist at the moment because he didn't make a pitch to voters that would convince them to stick with him if they faced doubts, or to vote Labour rather than Lib Dem or Green.
He's rather stumbling over the finish line now. He's presumably far enough ahead, but I think it will be a tense wait for the results from the first marginals.
This has absolutely nothing to do with political betting but can I just put on record that I HATE daylight savings. My favourite night is invariably the one they go back to GMT. And my least favourite is when we go to BST. It's part of this tyranny of early to rise makes an earthworm a cunt or whatever it is absolute scumbag normie twats promoting this pseudoscientific nonsense calendar adjustment which tortures us night owls even more during what should be the most productive months of the year. And being a night owl is correlated with intelligence, creativity, attractiveness, being a good gambler too (see Titanic Thompson) AND SUICIDE BECAUSE OF THIS HORRIFIC SOCIETAL BIAS
I would be quite happy to stick with GMT the whole year. Unfortunately I suspect the morons would insist on having BST the whole year istead whch would be vile.
Moron here. GMT equals waiting till evenings are getting really shit and then making it worse, and then rectifying the situation when things have improved so much anyway that nobody cares.
BST all year round means going to work and school in the dark.
Either stick to GMT all year round or keep things as they are now. BST all year round is a stupid idea.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
Yep. The funny thing will be if any of these people get seriously stung with a tax that had never even entered their heads.
If Labour wants to do any of their pet projects (on top of just day to day managing) they are going to have to introduce some serious tax rises. And with IT, NI and VAT ruled out they will have to go into new areas.
I don't know - how about extending IHT to lifetime gifts with tax payable on the spot. Bank of Mum and Dad wants to fund a house deposit - 20% (or maybe 40%?) tax payable on the spot on the transfer.
When they get clobbered with that they'll think why on earth didn't they vote for the Conservatives offering sod all. Because sod all would have been infinitely preferable.
Won't have any effect on the vast millions who don't get a deposit off their parents.
So a depressing but perhaps utterly predictable update from my Surrey tory friend.
For weeks she has told me that for the first time in her life she wouldn’t vote for the Conservatives, that she would vote LibDem or Labour (edit or even Green), that the tory party had left her behind not the other way around, that she dislikes Rishi Sunak, that people like Badenoch and Braverman are thoroughly nasty etc. etc. etc.
And tonight? She has told me ...
… that she is voting Conservative
Why? Because her MP Jonathan Lord helped Seema Misa the sub post mistress who was imprisoned whilst pregnant whilst the LibDems’ Ed Davey didn’t listen.
To be honest, I resigned myself to her staying blue. I didn’t criticise her though I did gently point out that she could be voting for Badenoch or Braverman (whom she professes to loathe).
A certain, perhaps significant, number always return to the fold.
Cons 100-200 seats is very much in play in my opinion.
Kind-of yes. I am in agreement with @Casino_Royale@turbotubbs and others that a significant number will put their X for Cons in the privacy of the polling booth.
That she told me is perhaps the surprising thing. Maybe it’s because I’m such an open-hearted and magnanimous gal
Perhaps they will. If so, it delivers for the Tories the spectacular unexpected high of being demolished 1997-style. What a result!
This has absolutely nothing to do with political betting but can I just put on record that I HATE daylight savings. My favourite night is invariably the one they go back to GMT. And my least favourite is when we go to BST. It's part of this tyranny of early to rise makes an earthworm a cunt or whatever it is absolute scumbag normie twats promoting this pseudoscientific nonsense calendar adjustment which tortures us night owls even more during what should be the most productive months of the year. And being a night owl is correlated with intelligence, creativity, attractiveness, being a good gambler too (see Titanic Thompson) AND SUICIDE BECAUSE OF THIS HORRIFIC SOCIETAL BIAS
I would be quite happy to stick with GMT the whole year. Unfortunately I suspect the morons would insist on having BST the whole year istead whch would be vile.
Moron here. GMT equals waiting till evenings are getting really shit and then making it worse, and then rectifying the situation when things have improved so much anyway that nobody cares.
I think it depends on whether, like myself, you enjoy the dark evenings and chance to snuggle down and hibernate a bit.
Yep. The funny thing will be if any of these people get seriously stung with a tax that had never even entered their heads.
If Labour wants to do any of their pet projects (on top of just day to day managing) they are going to have to introduce some serious tax rises. And with IT, NI and VAT ruled out they will have to go into new areas.
I don't know - how about extending IHT to lifetime gifts with tax payable on the spot. Bank of Mum and Dad wants to fund a house deposit - 20% (or maybe 40%?) tax payable on the spot on the transfer.
When they get clobbered with that they'll think why on earth didn't they vote for the Conservatives offering sod all. Because sod all would have been infinitely preferable.
Labour have painted themselves into a corner on taxation, they have ruled out most of the main options, and fiscal drag is already baked in to the plans. Also it is very unlikely that growth will be as fast or as large as necessary to close the tax gap. So there are likely to be a lot of indirect tax rises, and many of those are going to make a lot of people quite angry I expect.
Farage now complaining that GB News has not given him enough coverage.
WTF???
Getting ready to sever ties and move on?
They've served their purpose to give him a "voice" over the past couple of years but bigger and better things await than working for some shitty little news station like GB News...
So my extended Whatsapping family, which I previously accused of being slightly ignorant of the epochal nature of this election, has just proved me entirely wrong. They are wholly aware, indeed they can quote the exact polls as well as most PBers. Take from that what you will
Also, quite a few of them are going Reform, from Tory. There are no shy Tories returjing to the fold, not that I can detect
i have no idea who will win in Cornwall, could be very tight across the board - three way splits
Schadenfreude is what makes an election. My dream list of eight losers in order:
Farage Corbyn Galloway Lee Anderson Carla Denver Fazia Shaheen Truss Sunak
Fewer than three of them would be disappointing. Four would be par, and six/ seven ecstasy.
No Jenrick? Might as well make it an even number after adding Mercer.
I understand the reasons, but I’m pretty indifferent to him. And with the Moggster I now have my ten. Thanks PB for helping me refine the card.
Hey, it is your list. I can't argue with your top seven. I have no desire to see Sunak defenestrated and I suspect it is unlikely anyway. And Mercer, absolutely. Philip Davies would be a nice addition too, but Jenrick, you'll regret not sending him in for an early bath.
The only down side of Sir Philip losing his seat will be that he wins his bet.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
I honestly understand. As you will be hit by VAT on school fees, so will I eventually as unless something either unusually bad or unusually good happens it's my intent to send my daughter and any future kids to private school. I will almost certainly be stuffed by CGT increases like @kyf_100. I can realistically expect IHT to cause me issues too.
But it's still more important to me to kick the Tories in the face.
What I don't think you're quite getting is that this isn't emotional. Emotions drive it sure - they do *any* human decision. We emote first and rationalise later. So maybe I'm rationalising later. But I can claim the same about you. Let's call a truce there and go with my rationalisation. Which is that it's deterrence. To say that it's not acceptable to behave and legislate like this and expect to stay in power. To say that it's not acceptable to screw my generation and those younger over.
I'm even a member of the conservative party btw. Just to vote for sanity in the future if it is what emerges from the ashses.
It may be that a different liberal or centre-right party comes about instead - I'd love orange book lib dems. In which case I'll join it.
But this...thing... that dares to call itself the natural party of government... delenda est.
I agree with all of this post.
Except I won't be stung by CGT increases, I'll either not sell, or leave. Either way the government gets nothing. CGT at 20% is mid to low tier. CGT at 45% is 10% higher than (checks notes) the socialist paradise of finland, and would be the highest in Europe.
I want to see the Conservatives kicked in the teeth for the last 14 years, but HNWIs are already offski, see articles like
The worst thing for planning is insecurity, and I'd much prefer Labour to say "we will raise it to 30% next year, suck it up or leave" because at the minute investors are acting like it will be a rise to 45%, and far more people are leaving.
It's the failure of Labour to explain this that bugs me., due to the capital flight it's already causing. Tbh, I might even be willing to pay 30%, just tell me what I'm paying so I can plan.
Starmer didn't seal the deal. He's losing voters hand over fist at the moment because he didn't make a pitch to voters that would convince them to stick with him if they faced doubts, or to vote Labour rather than Lib Dem or Green.
He's rather stumbling over the finish line now. He's presumably far enough ahead, but I think it will be a tense wait for the results from the first marginals.
He's played this incredibly smartly in my view. He has played up to his boring tag, he has done nothing to scare the horses or even the right wing media, he makes it all sound like more of the same but with more sensible people in charge. He started with a 20% lead and is finishing with one of around 16%. That is a result and a half. The Tories have frankly not laid a glove on him.
So my extended Whatsapping family, which I previously accused of being slightly ignorant of the epochal nature of this election, has just proved me entirely wrong. They are all entirely aware, indeed they can quote the exact polls as well as most PBers. Take from that what you will
Also, quite a few of them are going Reform, from Tory. There are no shy Tories returjing to the fold, not that I can detect
i have no idea who will win in Cornwall, could be very tight across the board - three way splits
Schadenfreude is what makes an election. My dream list of eight losers in order:
Farage Corbyn Galloway Lee Anderson Carla Denver Fazia Shaheen Truss Sunak
Fewer than three of them would be disappointing. Four would be par, and six/ seven ecstasy.
No Jenrick? Might as well make it an even number after adding Mercer.
I understand the reasons, but I’m pretty indifferent to him. And with the Moggster I now have my ten. Thanks PB for helping me refine the card.
Hey, it is your list. I can't argue with your top seven. I have no desire to see Sunak defenestrated and I suspect it is unlikely anyway. And Mercer, absolutely. Philip Davies would be a nice addition too, but Jenrick, you'll regret not sending him in for an early bath.
I think Mercer losing would be a great loss to Parliament. A proper MP who has put constituents and veterans ahead of party or personal advantage.
Labour down a bit in these last few polls.....will it continue in the polling booth?
If the system was one person one vote then Tories and reform coalition. If the poll is correct?
The system is one person one vote.
If the system were PR, which is what I think you mean, Con + Ref wouldn't be able to command a majority. And since none of Lab, Ld or Green would join them, you'd have a Lab/LD/Green coalition.
Schadenfreude is what makes an election. My dream list of eight losers in order:
Farage Corbyn Galloway Lee Anderson Carla Denver Fazia Shaheen Truss Sunak
Fewer than three of them would be disappointing. Four would be par, and six/ seven ecstasy.
No Jenrick? Might as well make it an even number after adding Mercer.
I understand the reasons, but I’m pretty indifferent to him. And with the Moggster I now have my ten. Thanks PB for helping me refine the card.
I'd go as far as to say Mogg surviving would spoil the whole thing for me.
Nah
His penance for telling lies to The Queen is to be utterly irrelevant for the next 5 years, watching everything he hates being voted through by huge margins...
Follow up question in news briefing: If the president is jet lagged 12 days after overseas travel, doesn't that raise its own issues?
Say it ain't so. Are they really trying to blame Biden's debate performance on..... jetlag???
I heard the jetlag execuse, but 12 DAYS?! If he was that bad 12 days later how bad was he on day 1?
Does anyone in the White House twig how bad their defence has been? They make CCHQ look good.
It's become untenable, I think. He'll be withdrawing. Trump will be hoping he doesn't, which only emphasises that he must.
Having looked at a few previous threads on this issue, you have regularly accused PBers who claimed that Biden is senile of "rehashing Trumpite talking points" etc etc. You basically tried to silence debate on this subject
Honestly, I'm in my 30s and get jetlagged for a few days even when the clocks change twice a year.
This has absolutely nothing to do with political betting but can I just put on record that I HATE daylight savings. My favourite night is invariably the one they go back to GMT. And my least favourite is when we go to BST. It's part of this tyranny of early to rise makes an earthworm a cunt or whatever it is absolute scumbag normie twats promoting this pseudoscientific nonsense calendar adjustment which tortures us night owls even more during what should be the most productive months of the year. And being a night owl is correlated with intelligence, creativity, attractiveness, being a good gambler too (see Titanic Thompson) AND SUICIDE BECAUSE OF THIS HORRIFIC SOCIETAL BIAS
Follow up question in news briefing: If the president is jet lagged 12 days after overseas travel, doesn't that raise its own issues?
Honestly, I'm in my 30s and get jetlagged for a few days even when the clocks change twice a year. East coast US - UK takes me a week to fully recover from, and west coast takes me two.
I get it, the President of the US should do better than that: he's got much more experience, and probably lots of pharmaceutical help.
But jetlag is a real issue, no matter how much caffeine and/or amphetamines you have access to.
Yes it is and some get it worse than others.
Last time I went out to Asia I hadn’t really recovered for 2 weeks and I’m very fit and healthy.
No you are not, if that's true. And anyway if you want to be a world statesman you are claiming to be world class at a lot of things, including regular long haul travel. I mean I cycled 70 miles 10 days ago and it took me 4 days to recover, but I am not going to proffer that as an excuse for Vingegaard underperforming today.
You’re confusing two different things if I may say so.
I’m not giving an excuse for Joe Biden’s debate performance and if this is the latest one, coming after having a cold, or not having his afternoon nap, then it’s pretty risible.
But jetlag is a strange thing and can sometimes hit you for a couple of weeks. Especially if you mess up the flight timings as I did on that occasion. Other times it hardly affects me.
But I note you profess to be my medic which is a new point of departure in an increasingly hostile frame of reference on here. I am, in fact, exceptionally fit and healthy (well always touch wood etc) with a resting pulse of 45. I run and walk loads, gym workouts, yoga etc. I have blood test MOTs every 6 months and my endocrinologist, who spoke to me just two days ago, is delighted.
But, hey, if you think you know best ...
As the PBer who probably flies the most, I tend to agree. Some people seem to get letlag really badly, and some don't, and it's not necessarily basic health or fitness that determines this. it's almost random. Also if you travel a lot (like me) then your body gets used to clock changes and jetlag diminishes over the years
And yet despite that, sometimes I can be whacked by jetlag out of nowhere, and for no obvious reason - and a long haul flight that I would normally shrug off leaves me hazy for a week. It must be complexly linked to biorhythms and hormonal chan⁸ges and diet/exercise - so many imponderables it is impossible to untangle them
However, blaming Biden's debate performance on jetlag is so ridiculous it is insulting. He is senile, and it's getting worse, and that's all there is to it. He needs to quit or he will lose badly to Trump
Agree with every word of what you’ve written.
Occasionally we align
No this is bollocks from both of you because you are not claiming to be qualified to lead the free world. It's like me minimising a bad day for Pogacar on the Tour de France by saying I cycle more than most other PBers and I find 80 miles really tiring. It's absolutely irrelevant to contenders for world class status. Joe can stand the heat or get out of the kitchen.
Schadenfreude is what makes an election. My dream list of eight losers in order:
Farage Corbyn Galloway Lee Anderson Carla Denver Fazia Shaheen Truss Sunak
Fewer than three of them would be disappointing. Four would be par, and six/ seven ecstasy.
No Jenrick? Might as well make it an even number after adding Mercer.
I understand the reasons, but I’m pretty indifferent to him. And with the Moggster I now have my ten. Thanks PB for helping me refine the card.
Hey, it is your list. I can't argue with your top seven. I have no desire to see Sunak defenestrated and I suspect it is unlikely anyway. And Mercer, absolutely. Philip Davies would be a nice addition too, but Jenrick, you'll regret not sending him in for an early bath.
I think Mercer losing would be a great loss to Parliament. A proper MP who has put constituents and veterans ahead of party or personal advantage.
He and his wife have been incredibly unpleasant and entitled during the campaign. As a compromise can we settle on Jenrick.
Honestly, I'm in my 30s and get jetlagged for a few days even when the clocks change twice a year.
This has absolutely nothing to do with political betting but can I just put on record that I HATE daylight savings. My favourite night is invariably the one they go back to GMT. And my least favourite is when we go to BST. It's part of this tyranny of early to rise makes an earthworm a cunt or whatever it is absolute scumbag normie twats promoting this pseudoscientific nonsense calendar adjustment which tortures us night owls even more during what should be the most productive months of the year. And being a night owl is correlated with intelligence, creativity, attractiveness, being a good gambler too (see Titanic Thompson) AND SUICIDE BECAUSE OF THIS HORRIFIC SOCIETAL BIAS
You are Peter Hitchens and I claim my five pounds
Cruising speed on A1(m):
Dumbosaurus: 155mph (limited) Peter Hitchens: 54mph
Number of detectable intoxicating substances in post mortem after Peter Hitchens drove wrong way down A1(m):
Dumbosaurus: 12 (excluding metabolites) Peter Hitchens: 1 (caffeine)
54 by Hitchens? That would be quite an achievement as he dosent drive anything exceptna bicycle.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
Yep. The funny thing will be if any of these people get seriously stung with a tax that had never even entered their heads.
If Labour wants to do any of their pet projects (on top of just day to day managing) they are going to have to introduce some serious tax rises. And with IT, NI and VAT ruled out they will have to go into new areas.
I don't know - how about extending IHT to lifetime gifts with tax payable on the spot. Bank of Mum and Dad wants to fund a house deposit - 20% (or maybe 40%?) tax payable on the spot on the transfer.
When they get clobbered with that they'll think why on earth didn't they vote for the Conservatives offering sod all. Because sod all would have been infinitely preferable.
Not everyone values a few extra £k in their bank account versus, say, public services that work, better health services, a fairer society.
I appreciate this is hard for Tories to understand, but there it is.
The problem we have is that too many believe in unicorns. They think that people who earn more than them should pay more tax. If parties honestly set out that they will raise taxes they lose. May tried to fix social care and it helped wreck her campaign. So we have all the parties pretending that they won’t find a way to raise tax when in reality whoever is in charge will have to do so. The nation is getting older, with more and more demands on health and social care and it needs paying for. Growth is anaemia and no one has convinced that they have a plan as opposed to vague aspirations. I wanted to vote Labour. I was going to, right until Labour sent a Londoner with no link to the constituency as the candidate. The disrespect annoys me. Are there no potential labour candidates in SW Wilts at all? So Lib Dem it will be. I feel for my Tory MP - he’s a decent sort, but he has been mixing with some right wrong uns in recent times. The Tories will need to find the spirit of Cameron again, and look at how they recovered from 1997. Turning right isn’t the answer.
So my extended Whatsapping family, which I previously accused of being slightly ignorant of the epochal nature of this election, has just proved me entirely wrong. They are all entirely aware, indeed they can quote the exact polls as well as most PBers. Take from that what you will
Also, quite a few of them are going Reform, from Tory. There are no shy Tories returjing to the fold, not that I can detect
i have no idea who will win in Cornwall, could be very tight across the board - three way splits
...and then you woke up.
Why would I lie or fantasize about my own family's political preferences?! I'm giving you the truth
iF they are representative then Reform are going to do well. But that's a pretty major IF, I readily concede
Starmer didn't seal the deal. He's losing voters hand over fist at the moment because he didn't make a pitch to voters that would convince them to stick with him if they faced doubts, or to vote Labour rather than Lib Dem or Green.
He's rather stumbling over the finish line now. He's presumably far enough ahead, but I think it will be a tense wait for the results from the first marginals.
He's played this incredibly smartly in my view. He has played up to his boring tag, he has done nothing to scare the horses or even the right wing media, he makes it all sound like more of the same but with more sensible people in charge. He started with a 20% lead and is finishing with one of around 16%. That is a result and a half. The Tories have frankly not laid a glove on him.
Yes agreed.
It also means he can only please on the upside, which I think he will. Had he of promised manna from heaven, then he’d have been setting up for a fall.
Schadenfreude is what makes an election. My dream list of eight losers in order:
Farage Corbyn Galloway Lee Anderson Carla Denver Fazia Shaheen Truss Sunak
Fewer than three of them would be disappointing. Four would be par, and six/ seven ecstasy.
No Jenrick? Might as well make it an even number after adding Mercer.
I understand the reasons, but I’m pretty indifferent to him. And with the Moggster I now have my ten. Thanks PB for helping me refine the card.
Hey, it is your list. I can't argue with your top seven. I have no desire to see Sunak defenestrated and I suspect it is unlikely anyway. And Mercer, absolutely. Philip Davies would be a nice addition too, but Jenrick, you'll regret not sending him in for an early bath.
I think Mercer losing would be a great loss to Parliament. A proper MP who has put constituents and veterans ahead of party or personal advantage.
Well. That's why I said he's come up on the rails like an outsider. He's always struck me as the decent face of the Tory Party. I liked him. But his behaviour, when his job is at risk, has been that of an absolute world class prize cock.
Follow up question in news briefing: If the president is jet lagged 12 days after overseas travel, doesn't that raise its own issues?
Say it ain't so. Are they really trying to blame Biden's debate performance on..... jetlag???
I heard the jetlag execuse, but 12 DAYS?! If he was that bad 12 days later how bad was he on day 1?
Does anyone in the White House twig how bad their defence has been? They make CCHQ look good.
It's become untenable, I think. He'll be withdrawing. Trump will be hoping he doesn't, which only emphasises that he must.
Having looked at a few previous threads on this issue, you have regularly accused PBers who claimed that Biden is senile of "rehashing Trumpite talking points" etc etc. You basically tried to silence debate on this subject
Well Kinabalu ( and myself) failed to silence debate. You made what seemed to be at least 10,000 excitable anti-Biden posts over three days.
This has absolutely nothing to do with political betting but can I just put on record that I HATE daylight savings. My favourite night is invariably the one they go back to GMT. And my least favourite is when we go to BST. It's part of this tyranny of early to rise makes an earthworm a cunt or whatever it is absolute scumbag normie twats promoting this pseudoscientific nonsense calendar adjustment which tortures us night owls even more during what should be the most productive months of the year. And being a night owl is correlated with intelligence, creativity, attractiveness, being a good gambler too (see Titanic Thompson) AND SUICIDE BECAUSE OF THIS HORRIFIC SOCIETAL BIAS
I would be quite happy to stick with GMT the whole year. Unfortunately I suspect the morons would insist on having BST the whole year istead whch would be vile.
Moron here. GMT equals waiting till evenings are getting really shit and then making it worse, and then rectifying the situation when things have improved so much anyway that nobody cares.
I think it depends on whether, like myself, you enjoy the dark evenings and chance to snuggle down and hibernate a bit.
Anyone who pines for BST can get up an hour earlier if they wish.
I don't quite understand why they have to mess with the time on the clocks to kid themselves that they are getting up at 7am instead of 6am, or whatever.
This has absolutely nothing to do with political betting but can I just put on record that I HATE daylight savings. My favourite night is invariably the one they go back to GMT. And my least favourite is when we go to BST. It's part of this tyranny of early to rise makes an earthworm a cunt or whatever it is absolute scumbag normie twats promoting this pseudoscientific nonsense calendar adjustment which tortures us night owls even more during what should be the most productive months of the year. And being a night owl is correlated with intelligence, creativity, attractiveness, being a good gambler too (see Titanic Thompson) AND SUICIDE BECAUSE OF THIS HORRIFIC SOCIETAL BIAS
I would be quite happy to stick with GMT the whole year. Unfortunately I suspect the morons would insist on having BST the whole year istead whch would be vile.
Moron here. GMT equals waiting till evenings are getting really shit and then making it worse, and then rectifying the situation when things have improved so much anyway that nobody cares.
I would hate to have BST in the winter. I find it hard enough to get up in the halflight of a 7.30am January morning; the pitch dark it would be with BST would be horrible.
Starmer didn't seal the deal. He's losing voters hand over fist at the moment because he didn't make a pitch to voters that would convince them to stick with him if they faced doubts, or to vote Labour rather than Lib Dem or Green.
He's rather stumbling over the finish line now. He's presumably far enough ahead, but I think it will be a tense wait for the results from the first marginals.
He's played this incredibly smartly in my view. He has played up to his boring tag, he has done nothing to scare the horses or even the right wing media, he makes it all sound like more of the same but with more sensible people in charge. He started with a 20% lead and is finishing with one of around 16%. That is a result and a half. The Tories have frankly not laid a glove on him.
Yep. I think he has been tactically spot on in this election. He has kept manifesto hostages to fortune to a minimum, made sure his opponents have as little to work with as possible and just concentrated on geting elected with a decent majority so he can do what he thinks is necessary.
Pretty much flawless campaign really.
And the point is, ladies and gentleman, that boring, for lack of a better word, is good. Boring is right, boring works. Boring clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the Parliamentary spirit.
Comments
Does anyone in the White House twig how bad their defence has been? They make CCHQ look good.
Lab 39/41/41/39/36/38/39/40/41/38/39/36/39/38/39 Ave 38.87 (mean) 39 (median) 39 (mode)
Con 20/23/21/22/16/21/22/21/22/18/22/21/24/19/23 Ave 21.00 (mean) 21 (median) 21.5 (mode)
Lead 19/18/20/17/20/17/17/19/19/20/17/15/15/19/16 Ave 17.87(mean)18 (median) 17 (mode)
Had a chat with the female. She said politics was never discussed at all at home. And she was unaware if her mother had ever voted or not.
She still said she had no real idea. But the "bad Party" wanted 18 year olds to join the Army and send people to Rwanda.
I think The Bad Party is the kind of rebrand the incompetents at CCHQ will probably have on their shortlist.
Long time lurker here! Spotted a couple of interesting bets available, In East Surrey, Claire Coutinho is defending a 24k majority for the Tories. It's a very long shot, but Yougov's last MRP has her on 34%, ahead of the Lib Dems who have 28%. Lib Dems are 20/1 on Skybet and bet365.
In Scotland, Amy Callaghan is defending a notional majority of 1,986 for the SNP over a Lib Dem challenge in Mid Dunbartonshire. This seat has had boundary changes and will be a slightly tougher nut to crack than the former East Dunbartonshire seat. It's likely to go Lib Dem but you can still get 8/1 on SNP again via Skybet and bet365. Yougov have the seat as an SNP hold on their final MRP
We'll just have to make do I guess.
LAB: 37% (-2)
CON: 24% (+1)
RFM: 16% (+1)
LDM: 11% (-1)
GRN: 6% (=)
Via @NorstatUKPolls, 1-3 Jul. Changes w/ 24-26 Jun.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1808598424776028556
inglourious basterds
Gut-wrenchingly it isn’t true at all. Starmer’s Labour will be bland, middle of the road, and in some ways right of centre. It’s really quite depressing.
But I guess they will be competent and not nasty so that’s something.
But socialist they ain’t. Tragically.
Fearful of closet Tories.
I'll go 400.
And yet despite that, sometimes I can be whacked by jetlag out of nowhere, and for no obvious reason - and a long haul flight that I would normally shrug off leaves me hazy for a week. It must be complexly linked to biorhythms and hormonal changes and diet/exercise - so many imponderables it is impossible to untangle them
However, blaming Biden's debate performance on jetlag is so ridiculous it is insulting. He is senile, and it's getting worse, and that's all there is to it. He needs to quit or he will lose badly to Trump
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-67622479
You are Peter Hitchens and I claim my five pounds
Then you have the "One Nation" Conservatives who are perfectly happy voting Lib-Dem now Corbyn's been replaced by SKS.
Added to that all the Tory cock ups and shenanigans that have gone on since 2019, Truss, five Chancellors, etc. and it's a perfect storm for the Conservatives.
If they can survive this election and come back one day, they are literally indestructible lol!
But it's still more important to me to kick the Tories in the face.
What I don't think you're quite getting is that this isn't emotional. Emotions drive it sure - they do *any* human decision. We emote first and rationalise later. So maybe I'm rationalising later. But I can claim the same about you. Let's call a truce there and go with my rationalisation. Which is that it's deterrence. To say that it's not acceptable to behave and legislate like this and expect to stay in power. To say that it's not acceptable to screw my generation and those younger over.
I'm even a member of the conservative party btw. Just to vote for sanity in the future if it is what emerges from the ashses.
It may be that a different liberal or centre-right party comes about instead - I'd love orange book lib dems. In which case I'll join it.
But this...thing... that dares to call itself the natural party of government... delenda est.
If Labour wants to do any of their pet projects (on top of just day to day managing) they are going to have to introduce some serious tax rises. And with IT, NI and VAT ruled out they will have to go into new areas.
I don't know - how about extending IHT to lifetime gifts with tax payable on the spot. Bank of Mum and Dad wants to fund a house deposit - 20% (or maybe 40%?) tax payable on the spot on the transfer.
When they get clobbered with that they'll think why on earth didn't they vote for the Conservatives offering sod all. Because sod all would have been infinitely preferable.
That she told me is perhaps the surprising thing. Maybe it’s because I’m such an open-hearted and magnanimous gal
Not for me tho. I want them to die, firstly as a condign punishment and secnodly for the lolz and thirdly as creative destruction, so a new rightwing party with cullions can replace them
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8-EZkGMuud/?igsh=MTFibHhrMmQzaHJsYg==
I enjoyed it.
Looking forward to logging in at some point on Friday morning as the results pour in.
Occasionally we align
At least it is only £1.
In Ashfield you get three dinners with a 10% service charge for £1, and 1p change.
What? You were expecting a pat on the head?
WTF???
Seems David Yelland’s earlier Tweet about “editors at war” following The Sun’s endorsement is… accurate.
I appreciate this is hard for Tories to understand, but there it is.
An NHS that treats patients.
Schools that educate children.
Trains that serve passengers.
Water companies that don't polute our rivers and seas.
A society at ease with itself.
Let's vote Conservative to avoid such a nightmare.
Dumbosaurus: 155mph (limited)
Peter Hitchens: 54mph
Number of detectable intoxicating substances in post mortem after Peter Hitchens drove wrong way down A1(m):
Dumbosaurus: 12 (excluding metabolites)
Peter Hitchens: 1 (caffeine)
I freely admit that I will be a critical friend to Labour to start off and it is entirely likely that after a couple of years I’ll be sick of them. They might have failed to get a grip on things and they might have been wholly unambitious with their huge majority and they might be reverting to type and doing their New Labour “we know best” authoritarian act which I personally couldn’t stand in the Blair years. But for me, right now, they are the best hope we have of getting some meaningful change, which we need, and therefore they can have my vote.
It’s tough being a Tory voter right now. I understand why people do feel they need to still support the party. But I can’t. Not this time.
He's rather stumbling over the finish line now. He's presumably far enough ahead, but I think it will be a tense wait for the results from the first marginals.
Either stick to GMT all year round or keep things as they are now. BST all year round is a stupid idea.
They've served their purpose to give him a "voice" over the past couple of years but bigger and better things await than working for some shitty little news station like GB News...
So my extended Whatsapping family, which I previously accused of being slightly ignorant of the epochal nature of this election, has just proved me entirely wrong. They are wholly aware, indeed they can quote the exact polls as well as most PBers. Take from that what you will
Also, quite a few of them are going Reform, from Tory. There are no shy Tories returjing to the fold, not that I can detect
i have no idea who will win in Cornwall, could be very tight across the board - three way splits
Labour 312.
Conservative 140.
Libdems 69
SNP 45
Reform 33
Workers Party 16
Green 15
PC 2.
NI 18
Except I won't be stung by CGT increases, I'll either not sell, or leave. Either way the government gets nothing. CGT at 20% is mid to low tier. CGT at 45% is 10% higher than (checks notes) the socialist paradise of finland, and would be the highest in Europe.
I want to see the Conservatives kicked in the teeth for the last 14 years, but HNWIs are already offski, see articles like
https://www.ft.com/content/34d72fa2-d3b8-439a-886f-f4968c82762a
https://www.ft.com/content/383587ee-5b31-4549-9392-2f0b4612ef8b
The worst thing for planning is insecurity, and I'd much prefer Labour to say "we will raise it to 30% next year, suck it up or leave" because at the minute investors are acting like it will be a rise to 45%, and far more people are leaving.
It's the failure of Labour to explain this that bugs me., due to the capital flight it's already causing. Tbh, I might even be willing to pay 30%, just tell me what I'm paying so I can plan.
If the system were PR, which is what I think you mean, Con + Ref wouldn't be able to command a majority. And since none of Lab, Ld or Green would join them, you'd have a Lab/LD/Green coalition.
His penance for telling lies to The Queen is to be utterly irrelevant for the next 5 years, watching everything he hates being voted through by huge margins...
Good rant sir. Well done
I am going with Labour 39%.
I wanted to vote Labour. I was going to, right until Labour sent a Londoner with no link to the constituency as the candidate. The disrespect annoys me. Are there no potential labour candidates in SW Wilts at all?
So Lib Dem it will be. I feel for my Tory MP - he’s a decent sort, but he has been mixing with some right wrong uns in recent times. The Tories will need to find the spirit of Cameron again, and look at how they recovered from 1997. Turning right isn’t the answer.
iF they are representative then Reform are going to do well. But that's a pretty major IF, I readily concede
It also means he can only please on the upside, which I think he will. Had he of promised manna from heaven, then he’d have been setting up for a fall.
But his behaviour, when his job is at risk, has been that of an absolute world class prize cock.
Where's that come from?
I don't quite understand why they have to mess with the time on the clocks to kid themselves that they are getting up at 7am instead of 6am, or whatever.
Pretty much flawless campaign really.
And the point is, ladies and gentleman, that boring, for lack of a better word, is good. Boring is right, boring works. Boring clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the Parliamentary spirit.