Phone poll. Hello sir. Who are you voting for. I am just the cleaner. When will the owner be in? I know nothing. I see you in hell. Ok. We will put that one down for Farage.
Stuff like this has no predictive value. He has to say that until he reaches a final decision, he can't say, "I might quit because I'm too old, otoh maybe I'm fine and you should vote for me, let me think about it".
Annie Grayer @AnnieGrayerCNN · 2h One blue state Dem told me the last 24 hours has started to feel different.
The lawmaker described the flood of messages from delegates & rank-file Dem voters in the last 24 hours as all saying essentially the same thing: 'I love and respect the president, but it’s time.’
He (John Major) also secured a room in the Cabinet Office for them to store larger items so that they could be moved after the election: "They were (understandably) keen to avoid having a removal van seen in or near Downing Street." This plan was thwarted on polling day "when I got a panicked call from the press office to say that there was a removal van in Downing Street." It turned out that another group of civil servants had decided it would be a nice quiet day to shift furniture in Whitehall.
Do you think Donald Trump left the country better or worse than when he took office?
Better 48% Worse 47% ——— Do you think Joe Biden has made the country better or worse since taking office?
Better 36% Worse 57%
That’s extraordinary. Seriously half of the USA population are insane .
It is their Brexit moment where they inflict totally unnecessary self-harm on themselves and then spend years regretting it.
Spice will be added because the Yanks are generally armed to the teeth (there being more guns than people in the US)
Whatever happens, we have got The Gatling gun, and they have not
The arms borne by the people do not include automatic rifles let alone military drones and helicopter gunships. A shooting civil war against the Pentagon is not on the cards.
I'm not sure on that. A shooting war not involving the Pentagon is possible, as is Mr Trump trying to use the armed forces for his own purposes.
AIUI bump stocks - as used in the 2017 Las Vegas slaughter - have just been made legal again. One 64 year old bloke fired 1000+ rounds in 10 minutes, killing 61 and injuring 400+ people directly. He also had 20kg of explosive.*
And there are places where they have all kinds of major weapons around. Plus the police are militarised with cast off army stock.
* On October 1, 2017, a mass shooting occurred when 64-year-old Stephen Paddock opened fire on the crowd attending the Route 91 Harvest music festival on the Las Vegas Strip in Nevada from his 32nd-floor suites in the Mandalay Bay hotel. He fired more than 1,000 rounds, killing 60 people[a] and wounding at least 413. The ensuing panic brought the total number of injured to approximately 867. ... Paddock was found to have fired a total of 1,058 rounds from fifteen of the firearms: 1,049 from twelve AR-15-style rifles, eight from two AR-10-style rifles, and the round used to kill himself from the Smith & Wesson revolver.
So is Biden done? Harris / Sanders ticket incoming?
Harris wouldn't pick Sanders. She'd pick one of the people who are good on telly and popular in swing-states who are getting suggested for nominee. Alternatively she'd think past the election and poll the military for the most popular general.
The pollsters adjust for certainty to vote don't they? And the tendency of Tory supporters to turn out even when thoroughly pissed off and disillusioned. And the tendency of Reform supporters to get diverted to the golf bar on the way to the polling station etc.
The only question is whether these adjustments are sufficient and who has got them most accurately. But none of them are going to make a material difference with a lead like this.
Reform voters. I cannot wait to see what percentage of votes they get in this election.10.0%?
It is one of the biggest unknowns, not least because the pollsters don't have anything like the history to cross check. The damage to the Tories will be somewhere between catastrophic and apocalyptic. The number of seats they get are key. If they get very few they are much less likely to be around the next time.
On the betting front, 50/1 available on reform in Christchurch. Very white, old and conservative area. I can see Con slumping to the low 30s % and UKIP got 21.5% in 2015 50/1 looks great value
Unlikely. But I've had one English pound on at 100/1 cheers.
The pollsters adjust for certainty to vote don't they? And the tendency of Tory supporters to turn out even when thoroughly pissed off and disillusioned. And the tendency of Reform supporters to get diverted to the golf bar on the way to the polling station etc.
The only question is whether these adjustments are sufficient and who has got them most accurately. But none of them are going to make a material difference with a lead like this.
Reform voters. I cannot wait to see what percentage of votes they get in this election.10.0%?
It is one of the biggest unknowns, not least because the pollsters don't have anything like the history to cross check. The damage to the Tories will be somewhere between catastrophic and apocalyptic. The number of seats they get are key. If they get very few they are much less likely to be around the next time.
I don't want that to happen and I don't believe it will happen. I suppose how quickly any damage is repaired depends on whether they skip Hague and IDS and go straight to Cameron.
It would be really helpful to the Tories if Farage gets the tonking he deserves.
Follow up question in news briefing: If the president is jet lagged 12 days after overseas travel, doesn't that raise its own issues?
Honestly, I'm in my 30s and get jetlagged for a few days even when the clocks change twice a year. East coast US - UK takes me a week to fully recover from, and west coast takes me two.
I get it, the President of the US should do better than that: he's got much more experience, and probably lots of pharmaceutical help.
But jetlag is a real issue, no matter how much caffeine and/or amphetamines you have access to.
So is Biden done? Harris / Sanders ticket incoming?
Harris wouldn't pick Sanders. She'd pick one of the people who are good on telly and popular in swing-states who are getting suggested for nominee. Alternatively she'd think past the election and poll the military for the most popular general.
She will pick Shapiro
He’s very good and a great speaker. There’s still time for the Dems but they need to wake up and realize that Biden has to stand down . Many don’t want to come out and say so. I get the respect people have for him and he was there to beat Trump in 2020 but that was then . Now Biden could deliver what he most feared .
All the final polls tonight have Labour below the 43% Blair got in 1997 but heading for a bigger majority than then due to the split on the right between Tory and Reform. LDs also below 1997 levels but again may get more seats than then for the same reason, looks like FPTP will really boost the left and hit the right for once tomorrow. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
The MRPs at least suggest the Tories will be over the pyschologically important 100 seats mark though and still clearly the main opposition to a near certain Starmer government
Follow up question in news briefing: If the president is jet lagged 12 days after overseas travel, doesn't that raise its own issues?
Honestly, I'm in my 30s and get jetlagged for a few days even when the clocks change twice a year. East coast US - UK takes me a week to fully recover from, and west coast takes me two.
I get it, the President of the US should do better than that: he's got much more experience, and probably lots of pharmaceutical help.
But jetlag is a real issue, no matter how much caffeine and/or amphetamines you have access to.
Yes it is and some get it worse than others.
Last time I went out to Asia I hadn’t really recovered for 2 weeks and I’m very fit and healthy.
He is as delusional as Boris - "I do think we could get a better deal than the botched deal we got under Boris Johnson on the trading front, in research and development and on security
So is Biden done? Harris / Sanders ticket incoming?
Harris wouldn't pick Sanders. She'd pick one of the people who are good on telly and popular in swing-states who are getting suggested for nominee. Alternatively she'd think past the election and poll the military for the most popular general.
On turnout. Two of my close friends both 29 yo have never been registered to vote. TIL that they've both been bothered to register, and will be voting Labour tomorrow, having read summaries of the main Parties' policies Online. I don't know if that means anything at all, really, but I was surprised to say the least. I wonder if getting them to drop me off at the polling station for the May locals had any effect? (I never have talked politics with them. They were surprised I was voting Labour too).
The pollsters adjust for certainty to vote don't they? And the tendency of Tory supporters to turn out even when thoroughly pissed off and disillusioned. And the tendency of Reform supporters to get diverted to the golf bar on the way to the polling station etc.
The only question is whether these adjustments are sufficient and who has got them most accurately. But none of them are going to make a material difference with a lead like this.
Reform voters. I cannot wait to see what percentage of votes they get in this election.10.0%?
It is one of the biggest unknowns, not least because the pollsters don't have anything like the history to cross check. The damage to the Tories will be somewhere between catastrophic and apocalyptic. The number of seats they get are key. If they get very few they are much less likely to be around the next time.
not sure if it hugey affects the tories now in terms of what percentage Reform get in that (like Brexit ref) a high reform vote will be because new voters will vote for them so look for a higher turnout than expected
On turnout. Two of my close friends both 29 yo have never been registered to vote. TIL that they've both been bothered to register, and will be voting Labour tomorrow, having read summaries of the main Parties' policies Online. I don't know if that means anything at all, really, but I was surprised to say the least. I wonder if getting them to drop me off at the polling station for the May locals had any effect? (I never have talked politics with them. They were surprised I was voting Labour too).
So reverse 2019 for the big two, bit of reshuffling amongst the smaller parties. The Tories would have your arm off for that, but it would imply a massive polling failure. I've not played around with the numbers too much but if you try to Baxter the vote shares you need to have Con comfortably into the 30s and hoovering up a lot of the Reform vote, and/or an unexpectedly poor Labour showing, to arrive at a seat distribution like this.
Why would certain members of the great British public lie when contacted by polling companies? What would be the reasons that they would do that?
You have to be terminally hebephrenic not to have your phone set up so that random timewasters like polling cos cannot get through to you, so the people they do get through to on the phone don't know whether it's Christmas or Easter. That leaves self selected tossers on internet panels, and any statistics textbook I ever read was pretty clear about the importance of RANDOM samples. People earnestly studying polls these days are like neo Ptolemaic astronomers debating which current model most accurately portrays how the sun and planets revolve around the earth.
Who do we need to vote for to improve the standards of your statistics text books ??
You what? How can a non-random sample of a population represent that population?
A sample needs to be representative not random.
That’s a major reason why polls are less shit now than they were 30 years ago
Naah, the bias implied by limiting your sample to people who are positively willing to be polled online for 23p an hour utterly dwarfs the representative vs random distinction
BTW I note an extraordinary flip in autosuggestion on phones. It used to bowdlerise like crazy and my messages would say ducking bell and so on. Now it's the other way round, I was 2 letters in to distinction above and it wanted to say dickhead. Shot gets changed to shit and so on.
Turnout troubling 60% for me, ultra low in safe Labour seats up north
I agree. I think it will creep over 60% but not by much.
I sold turnout below 62% and below 60% in particular, FWIW
But, I truly have no idea.
I think it will be higher than expected due to the Reform vote - a lot of Reform voters are not ex tory or labour ones they will be new ones like the euro ref
The pollsters adjust for certainty to vote don't they? And the tendency of Tory supporters to turn out even when thoroughly pissed off and disillusioned. And the tendency of Reform supporters to get diverted to the golf bar on the way to the polling station etc.
The only question is whether these adjustments are sufficient and who has got them most accurately. But none of them are going to make a material difference with a lead like this.
Reform voters. I cannot wait to see what percentage of votes they get in this election.10.0%?
It is one of the biggest unknowns, not least because the pollsters don't have anything like the history to cross check. The damage to the Tories will be somewhere between catastrophic and apocalyptic. The number of seats they get are key. If they get very few they are much less likely to be around the next time.
I don't want that to happen and I don't believe it will happen. I suppose how quickly any damage is repaired depends on whether they skip Hague and IDS and go straight to Cameron.
It would be really helpful to the Tories if Farage gets the tonking he deserves.
I think that is essential to an electable party. Those who dream of reverse take overs, inviting Farage into the party, tolerating the madness and the delusions are basically guaranteeing a lazy, comfortable win next time around.
On the betting front, 50/1 available on reform in Christchurch. Very white, old and conservative area. I can see Con slumping to the low 30s % and UKIP got 21.5% in 2015 50/1 looks great value
Unlikely. But I've had one English pound on at 100/1 cheers.
where? bf is 7
Done it again sorry. Got ashfield mixed up.with Ashford and now Christchurch mixed up with Chichester. Sorry all.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
So is Biden done? Harris / Sanders ticket incoming?
Harris wouldn't pick Sanders. She'd pick one of the people who are good on telly and popular in swing-states who are getting suggested for nominee. Alternatively she'd think past the election and poll the military for the most popular general.
She will pick Shapiro
He’s very good and a great speaker. There’s still time for the Dems but they need to wake up and realize that Biden has to stand down . Many don’t want to come out and say so. I get the respect people have for him and he was there to beat Trump in 2020 but that was then . Now Biden could deliver what he most feared .
It's been said enough that a Biden campaign can't proceed. He can bow out well or badly. He will have to bow out though.
A thumping endorsement of Harris will be his greatest legacy, but perhaps that's all for the good. The stupidity of the geriatric Trump vs Biden contest obliviated once and for all.
Do you think Donald Trump left the country better or worse than when he took office?
Better 48% Worse 47% ——— Do you think Joe Biden has made the country better or worse since taking office?
Better 36% Worse 57%
That’s extraordinary. Seriously half of the USA population are insane .
It is their Brexit moment where they inflict totally unnecessary self-harm on themselves and then spend years regretting it.
Spice will be added because the Yanks are generally armed to the teeth (there being more guns than people in the US)
Whatever happens, we have got The Gatling gun, and they have not
The arms borne by the people do not include automatic rifles let alone military drones and helicopter gunships. A shooting civil war against the Pentagon is not on the cards.
I'm not sure on that. A shooting war not involving the Pentagon is possible, as is Mr Trump trying to use the armed forces for his own purposes.
AIUI bump stocks - as used in the 2017 Las Vegas slaughter - have just been made legal again. One 64 year old bloke fired 1000+ rounds in 10 minutes, killing 61 and injuring 400+ people directly. He also had 20kg of explosive.*
And there are places where they have all kinds of major weapons around. Plus the police are militarised with cast off army stock.
* On October 1, 2017, a mass shooting occurred when 64-year-old Stephen Paddock opened fire on the crowd attending the Route 91 Harvest music festival on the Las Vegas Strip in Nevada from his 32nd-floor suites in the Mandalay Bay hotel. He fired more than 1,000 rounds, killing 60 people[a] and wounding at least 413. The ensuing panic brought the total number of injured to approximately 867. ... Paddock was found to have fired a total of 1,058 rounds from fifteen of the firearms: 1,049 from twelve AR-15-style rifles, eight from two AR-10-style rifles, and the round used to kill himself from the Smith & Wesson revolver.
I'd recommend the documentary about that. 11 minutes. On IPlayer I think.
It’s a very good doc. The amount of footage from people is incredible and really well put together. I knew of the story from it being on the news at the time but never realised the scale of what happened until watching 11 minutes.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Is it just me or is Betfair really slow at loading/refreshing the moment?
Same. Everyone overtrading the US and UK elections at the same time?
That said Betfair should be able to handle high traffic.
Betfair is fine for me. But if there are problems then I absolutely guarantee it's not due to political markets. There are some big fish on this site but in a very small pond!
In this case it's Paddy Power and Betfair (non exchange) apparently. They are the same company fwiw.
(This is not betting advice, I don't know anything about the seat)
Trouble is that oddschecker throws up some options for joker bookies who are as dodgy as hell.
I don't mean the mainstream UK ones. I mean ones with shells in Gibraltar or elsewhere who take your money but have no means of contacting them about an unpaid bet or account problem.
Follow up question in news briefing: If the president is jet lagged 12 days after overseas travel, doesn't that raise its own issues?
Honestly, I'm in my 30s and get jetlagged for a few days even when the clocks change twice a year. East coast US - UK takes me a week to fully recover from, and west coast takes me two.
I get it, the President of the US should do better than that: he's got much more experience, and probably lots of pharmaceutical help.
But jetlag is a real issue, no matter how much caffeine and/or amphetamines you have access to.
Difference is that you aren’t expected to make decisions that could change the world whilst spangled from jet lag. If he’s that out of it then people might understandably wonder how he’s supposed to fulfil the role properly with the travel element being intrinsic but the inevitability of jet lag affecting him so badly.
What if the Russians accidentally trigger NATO in Poland and Joe doesn’t know if he's about to declare war on Medicaid or Moscow.
It's really quite noticeable round here - normally festooned with party election posters in windows - that there's.... nothing. Not a jot.
Aside from that the choices I have tomorrow are :
The Incumbent SNP bloke : never knocked my door even during the 2-3 campaigns they've 'fought', zero local presence, no sign of even having been here rather than Westminster.
The Labour Guy : wealthy background (poor constituency), clearly an up-and-comer who will possibly 'go places', but again - no sign of them ever having set foot here or even knowing where 'here' is.
The Green Guy : no chance of being elected, but has spent time answering questions from locals and lives in the area.
Various others (reform/tory/LD/communist/whatever): no chance of winning, and zero sign of even knowing they're standing, let alone where.
I'm not terribly inspired at this late stage. Throw my vote away on The Green Guy just because he's shown willing?
most people dont want politicians knocking at their door
Given that he's already 61, this seems like a reasonable conclusion to draw. Renegotiation would take years and it has a vital necessary precondition: a sustained and substantial majority (minimum two-thirds IMHO) of public opinion committed to going back in. The EU member states are not going to want to go through Brexit twice: they need confidence that we won't turn up, stay for a few years being annoying, and then flounce a second time.
Rebuilding sufficient trust to go back in and convincing most of the population to be positive about the project is the work of decades, not months.
So a depressing but perhaps utterly predictable update from my Surrey tory friend.
For weeks she has told me that for the first time in her life she wouldn’t vote for the Conservatives, that she would vote LibDem or Labour (edit or even Green), that the tory party had left her behind not the other way around, that she dislikes Rishi Sunak, that people like Badenoch and Braverman are thoroughly nasty etc. etc. etc.
And tonight? She has told me ...
… that she is voting Conservative
Why? Because her MP Jonathan Lord helped Seema Misa the sub post mistress who was imprisoned whilst pregnant whilst the LibDems’ Ed Davey didn’t listen.
To be honest, I resigned myself to her staying blue. I didn’t criticise her though I did gently point out that she could be voting for Badenoch or Braverman (whom she professes to loathe).
A certain, perhaps significant, number always return to the fold.
Cons 100-200 seats is very much in play in my opinion.
Given that he's already 61, this seems like a reasonable conclusion to draw. Renegotiation would take years and it has a vital necessary precondition: a sustained and substantial majority (minimum two-thirds IMHO) of public opinion committed to going back in. The EU member states are not going to want to go through Brexit twice: they need confidence that we won't turn up, stay for a few years being annoying, and then flounce a second time.
Rebuilding sufficient trust to go back in and convincing most of the population to be positive about the project is the work of decades, not months.
True. Hopefully no Frexit in the next ten years or Italiano finito as well.
Why would certain members of the great British public lie when contacted by polling companies? What would be the reasons that they would do that?
You have to be terminally hebephrenic not to have your phone set up so that random timewasters like polling cos cannot get through to you, so the people they do get through to on the phone don't know whether it's Christmas or Easter. That leaves self selected tossers on internet panels, and any statistics textbook I ever read was pretty clear about the importance of RANDOM samples. People earnestly studying polls these days are like neo Ptolemaic astronomers debating which current model most accurately portrays how the sun and planets revolve around the earth.
Who do we need to vote for to improve the standards of your statistics text books ??
You what? How can a non-random sample of a population represent that population?
A sample needs to be representative not random.
That’s a major reason why polls are less shit now than they were 30 years ago
Naah, the bias implied by limiting your sample to people who are positively willing to be polled online for 23p an hour utterly dwarfs the representative vs random distinction
BTW I note an extraordinary flip in autosuggestion on phones. It used to bowdlerise like crazy and my messages would say ducking bell and so on. Now it's the other way round, I was 2 letters in to distinction above and it wanted to say dickhead. Shot gets changed to shit and so on.
Follow up question in news briefing: If the president is jet lagged 12 days after overseas travel, doesn't that raise its own issues?
Honestly, I'm in my 30s and get jetlagged for a few days even when the clocks change twice a year. East coast US - UK takes me a week to fully recover from, and west coast takes me two.
I get it, the President of the US should do better than that: he's got much more experience, and probably lots of pharmaceutical help.
But jetlag is a real issue, no matter how much caffeine and/or amphetamines you have access to.
Difference is that you aren’t expected to make decisions that could change the world whilst spangled from jet lag. If he’s that out of it then people might understandably wonder how he’s supposed to fulfil the role properly with the travel element being intrinsic but the inevitability of jet lag affecting him so badly.
What if the Russians accidentally trigger NATO in Poland and Joe doesn’t know if he's about to declare war on Medicare or Moscow.
just like having weak forces against a foe it is exceptionally dangerous having a weak command structure and when you have the president at the top with dementia then that IS weak .What is the US playing at ?
So is Biden done? Harris / Sanders ticket incoming?
Sanders is like bolting Corbyn on to the ticket. Yes, he's still sharp. But he is seriously left wing for main stream US politics.
We need Biden to walk the plank first. I don't mind Harris but Whitmer with a VP who is a Representative/ Senator from a rust belt swing state makes sense.
A Harris-Bernie ticket would be like Starmer replacing Reeves with Burgon. Not going to happen.
Stuff like this has no predictive value. He has to say that until he reaches a final decision, he can't say, "I might quit because I'm too old, otoh maybe I'm fine and you should vote for me, let me think about it".
It could also be part of the factional struggle if he wants to ensure his favoured successor is unopposed.
So a depressing but perhaps utterly predictable update from my Surrey tory friend.
For weeks she has told me that for the first time in her life she wouldn’t vote for the Conservatives, that she would vote LibDem or Labour, that the tory party had left her behind not the other way around, that she dislikes Rishi Sunak, that people like Badenoch and Braverman are thoroughly nasty etc. etc. etc.
And tonight? She has told me ...
… that she is voting Conservative
Why? Because her MP Jonathan Lord helped Seema Misa the sub post mistress who was imprisoned whilst pregnant whilst the LibDems’ Ed Davey didn’t listen.
To be honest, I resigned myself to her staying blue. I didn’t criticise her though I did gently point out that she could be voting for Badenoch or Braverman (whom she professes to loathe).
A certain, perhaps significant, number always return to the fold.
Cons 100-200 seats is very much in play in my opinion.
Schadenfreude is what makes an election. My dream list of eight losers in order:
Farage Corbyn Galloway Lee Anderson Carla Denver Fazia Shaheen Truss Sunak
Fewer than three of them would be disappointing. Four would be par, and six/ seven ecstasy.
so basically you just love the nice cuddly status quo and like nobody to rock the boat or have ideas - I think all are better in parliament than out personally
Follow up question in news briefing: If the president is jet lagged 12 days after overseas travel, doesn't that raise its own issues?
Honestly, I'm in my 30s and get jetlagged for a few days even when the clocks change twice a year. East coast US - UK takes me a week to fully recover from, and west coast takes me two.
I get it, the President of the US should do better than that: he's got much more experience, and probably lots of pharmaceutical help.
But jetlag is a real issue, no matter how much caffeine and/or amphetamines you have access to.
Yes it is and some get it worse than others.
Last time I went out to Asia I hadn’t really recovered for 2 weeks and I’m very fit and healthy.
No you are not, if that's true. And anyway if you want to be a world statesman you are claiming to be world class at a lot of things, including regular long haul travel. I mean I cycled 70 miles 10 days ago and it took me 4 days to recover, but I am not going to proffer that as an excuse for Vingegaard underperforming today.
He is as delusional as Boris - "I do think we could get a better deal than the botched deal we got under Boris Johnson on the trading front, in research and development and on security
Oven ready, no doubt...
If the red lines change, the deal can change. If Starmer is craven enough to put us under the ECJ in selected matters, that could open some things up. Overall it's hard though.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
There's obviously going to be a lot of that sort of thing going on, because shit voting system. Picking Labour myself to get rid of the Tories, but would go LD if they were still the second party around here (as they were pre-Coalition, if memory serves.)
More broadly, Labour aren't exactly inspiring but they're a radiant beacon of hope compared to the dross we currently have as a lame excuse for a government. Let's just keep or fingers crossed that they have some idea what they're doing; the consequences of a flop could be rather nasty, with Farage and various hard right Conservatives waiting in the wings.
So a depressing but perhaps utterly predictable update from my Surrey tory friend.
For weeks she has told me that for the first time in her life she wouldn’t vote for the Conservatives, that she would vote LibDem or Labour (edit or even Green), that the tory party had left her behind not the other way around, that she dislikes Rishi Sunak, that people like Badenoch and Braverman are thoroughly nasty etc. etc. etc.
And tonight? She has told me ...
… that she is voting Conservative
Why? Because her MP Jonathan Lord helped Seema Misa the sub post mistress who was imprisoned whilst pregnant whilst the LibDems’ Ed Davey didn’t listen.
To be honest, I resigned myself to her staying blue. I didn’t criticise her though I did gently point out that she could be voting for Badenoch or Braverman (whom she professes to loathe).
A certain, perhaps significant, number always return to the fold.
Cons 100-200 seats is very much in play in my opinion.
On turnout. Two of my close friends both 29 yo have never been registered to vote. TIL that they've both been bothered to register, and will be voting Labour tomorrow, having read summaries of the main Parties' policies Online. I don't know if that means anything at all, really, but I was surprised to say the least. I wonder if getting them to drop me off at the polling station for the May locals had any effect? (I never have talked politics with them. They were surprised I was voting Labour too).
My parents took me to the polling station when I was a teenager. Maybe if you've never been it seems scary, and it's easier to stay at home.
Given that he's already 61, this seems like a reasonable conclusion to draw. Renegotiation would take years and it has a vital necessary precondition: a sustained and substantial majority (minimum two-thirds IMHO) of public opinion committed to going back in. The EU member states are not going to want to go through Brexit twice: they need confidence that we won't turn up, stay for a few years being annoying, and then flounce a second time.
Rebuilding sufficient trust to go back in and convincing most of the population to be positive about the project is the work of decades, not months.
Indeed. It also requires unanimous consent from EU member states, and lots of them would want to extract a high price, from the UK or Brussels or both. It would be horrifically painful and even at the end of it, the UK would be risking a last-minute veto from some stroppy member
Starmer is pragmatically correct, it is never going to happen, not in his lifetime or anyone's. It's done. But that doesn't mean we won't come to better arrangements vis a vis mobility and trade, there will be constant tweaks as there are between, say, Switzerland and the EU
And, of course, all this will be rendered meaningless anyway by the various technological changes coming down the line, which will make Brexit seem like a quaint, trivial skirmish compared to a global war
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
Honestly, I'm in my 30s and get jetlagged for a few days even when the clocks change twice a year.
This has absolutely nothing to do with political betting but can I just put on record that I HATE daylight savings. My favourite night is invariably the one they go back to GMT. And my least favourite is when we go to BST. It's part of this tyranny of early to rise makes an earthworm a cunt or whatever it is absolute scumbag normie twats promoting this pseudoscientific nonsense calendar adjustment which tortures us night owls even more during what should be the most productive months of the year. And being a night owl is correlated with intelligence, creativity, attractiveness, being a good gambler too (see Titanic Thompson) AND SUICIDE BECAUSE OF THIS HORRIFIC SOCIETAL BIAS
In this case it's Paddy Power and Betfair (non exchange) apparently. They are the same company fwiw.
(This is not betting advice, I don't know anything about the seat)
Trouble is that oddschecker throws up some options for joker bookies who are as dodgy as hell.
I don't mean the mainstream UK ones. I mean ones with shells in Gibraltar or elsewhere who take your money but have no means of contacting them about an unpaid bet or account problem.
That is a potential concern but I suspect the questioner was a "novice" - if not to betting in general, then to online betting. Otherwise (s)he wouldn't have been asking. Flutter group are perfectly safe anyway
Why would certain members of the great British public lie when contacted by polling companies? What would be the reasons that they would do that?
You have to be terminally hebephrenic not to have your phone set up so that random timewasters like polling cos cannot get through to you, so the people they do get through to on the phone don't know whether it's Christmas or Easter. That leaves self selected tossers on internet panels, and any statistics textbook I ever read was pretty clear about the importance of RANDOM samples. People earnestly studying polls these days are like neo Ptolemaic astronomers debating which current model most accurately portrays how the sun and planets revolve around the earth.
Who do we need to vote for to improve the standards of your statistics text books ??
You what? How can a non-random sample of a population represent that population?
A sample needs to be representative not random.
That’s a major reason why polls are less shit now than they were 30 years ago
Naah, the bias implied by limiting your sample to people who are positively willing to be polled online for 23p an hour utterly dwarfs the representative vs random distinction
BTW I note an extraordinary flip in autosuggestion on phones. It used to bowdlerise like crazy and my messages would say ducking bell and so on. Now it's the other way round, I was 2 letters in to distinction above and it wanted to say dickhead. Shot gets changed to shit and so on.
So a depressing but perhaps utterly predictable update from my Surrey tory friend.
For weeks she has told me that for the first time in her life she wouldn’t vote for the Conservatives, that she would vote LibDem or Labour (edit or even Green), that the tory party had left her behind not the other way around, that she dislikes Rishi Sunak, that people like Badenoch and Braverman are thoroughly nasty etc. etc. etc.
And tonight? She has told me ...
… that she is voting Conservative
Why? Because her MP Jonathan Lord helped Seema Misa the sub post mistress who was imprisoned whilst pregnant whilst the LibDems’ Ed Davey didn’t listen.
To be honest, I resigned myself to her staying blue. I didn’t criticise her though I did gently point out that she could be voting for Badenoch or Braverman (whom she professes to loathe).
A certain, perhaps significant, number always return to the fold.
Cons 100-200 seats is very much in play in my opinion.
Follow up question in news briefing: If the president is jet lagged 12 days after overseas travel, doesn't that raise its own issues?
Honestly, I'm in my 30s and get jetlagged for a few days even when the clocks change twice a year. East coast US - UK takes me a week to fully recover from, and west coast takes me two.
I get it, the President of the US should do better than that: he's got much more experience, and probably lots of pharmaceutical help.
But jetlag is a real issue, no matter how much caffeine and/or amphetamines you have access to.
Yes it is and some get it worse than others.
Last time I went out to Asia I hadn’t really recovered for 2 weeks and I’m very fit and healthy.
No you are not, if that's true. And anyway if you want to be a world statesman you are claiming to be world class at a lot of things, including regular long haul travel. I mean I cycled 70 miles 10 days ago and it took me 4 days to recover, but I am not going to proffer that as an excuse for Vingegaard underperforming today.
You’re confusing two different things if I may say so.
I’m not giving an excuse for Joe Biden’s debate performance and if this is the latest one, coming after having a cold, or not having his afternoon nap, then it’s pretty risible.
But jetlag is a strange thing and can sometimes hit you for a couple of weeks. Especially if you mess up the flight timings as I did on that occasion. Other times it hardly affects me.
But I note you profess to be my medic which is a new point of departure in an increasingly hostile frame of reference on here. I am, in fact, exceptionally fit and healthy (well always touch wood etc) with a resting pulse of 45. I run and walk loads, gym workouts, yoga etc. I have blood test MOTs every 6 months and my endocrinologist, who spoke to me just two days ago, is delighted as is my GP. I take my health seriously, which is one of the reasons I gave up alcohol a long time ago. And I’m very careful about what I eat (tomorrow’s scotch egg for election night being a notable exception!).
Personally going to vote Reform - I have always voted Tory in GEs and even voted REMAIN in the euro referendum but the system is broke and worse it is seeping into public services and the economy - all three main parties are very statist and will not fix anything - Immigration is too high and not controlled atm but for me the reason to vote Reform is the crapness of public services despite the highest taxation rate since WW2 . Something is broken.
Stuff like this has no predictive value. He has to say that until he reaches a final decision, he can't say, "I might quit because I'm too old, otoh maybe I'm fine and you should vote for me, let me think about it".
I'm surprised phone pollsters get anyone to engage these days. I would assume its a scammer or spammer.
Mind you I think I have been on their "blacklist" since the Constitution Hill incident a few years back and get very few spam calls now.
[Phone Rings]
"Hello I'm calling about the accident you had that wasn't your fault?
>Oh the one this morning, that was quick.
[Goes quiet. Put through to someone else in what seems a big call centre with lots of chatter in the background]
Hello, can you confirm when and where the accident happened.
>10 Oclock this morning in Constitution Hill London. I must say that I am really impressed with how quickly you called me
Can you give me details of the other car involved?
>It wasn't a car it was a coach.
What type of Coach?
>Imperial State.
What was the registration number?
>Couldn't see because of all the horses in front of it.
Er. Ok. Did you get the drivers details?
>Yes. Elizabeth Windsor and her husband Duke Edinburgh.
Thank You. Now can you give me details of your name, car and registrstion number.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
You have stuck to your guns throughout which is admirable. But the Tories are so utterly, utterly bereft of ideas, basic ability to govern, or moral compass, that it seems irrational to vote for them in this state.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
I completely get that and it seems an entirely reasonable position to me. I will vote Tory for tactical anti-SNP reasons but I don't think I have been so tempted to vote Labour in my adult life. Its not that they are offering much, its just the Tories are offering the square root of sod all.
Labour are offering socialism.
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
This has absolutely nothing to do with political betting but can I just put on record that I HATE daylight savings. My favourite night is invariably the one they go back to GMT. And my least favourite is when we go to BST. It's part of this tyranny of early to rise makes an earthworm a cunt or whatever it is absolute scumbag normie twats promoting this pseudoscientific nonsense calendar adjustment which tortures us night owls even more during what should be the most productive months of the year. And being a night owl is correlated with intelligence, creativity, attractiveness, being a good gambler too (see Titanic Thompson) AND SUICIDE BECAUSE OF THIS HORRIFIC SOCIETAL BIAS
I would be quite happy to stick with GMT the whole year. Unfortunately I suspect the morons would insist on having BST the whole year istead whch would be vile.
Comments
Pillock.
Britain will not rejoin EU in my lifetime, says Starmer
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/03/britain-will-not-rejoin-eu-in-my-lifetime-says-starmer
@AnnieGrayerCNN
·
2h
One blue state Dem told me the last 24 hours has started to feel different.
The lawmaker described the flood of messages from delegates & rank-file Dem voters in the last 24 hours as all saying essentially the same thing: 'I love and respect the president, but it’s time.’
https://x.com/AnnieGrayerCNN/status/1808556280484634848
Tory 131
LD 65
SNP 23
Reform 4
PC 3
Green 2
Other/NI 20
Turnout 60.2%
Exit Poll will show something like Labour 425, Tories 96, LD 93, but things, thankfully, won't be quite that horrific for humanity...
It would be really helpful to the Tories if Farage gets the tonking he deserves.
I get it, the President of the US should do better than that: he's got much more experience, and probably lots of pharmaceutical help.
But jetlag is a real issue, no matter how much caffeine and/or amphetamines you have access to.
Here are the odds of all the main bookies:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/uk-constituencies/next-uk-general-election-constituencies/croydon-south
In this case it's Paddy Power and Betfair (non exchange) apparently. They are the same company fwiw.
(This is not betting advice, I don't know anything about the seat)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
The MRPs at least suggest the Tories will be over the pyschologically important 100 seats mark though and still clearly the main opposition to a near certain Starmer government
Last time I went out to Asia I hadn’t really recovered for 2 weeks and I’m very fit and healthy.
Oven ready, no doubt...
Two of my close friends both 29 yo have never been registered to vote.
TIL that they've both been bothered to register, and will be voting Labour tomorrow, having read summaries of the main Parties' policies Online.
I don't know if that means anything at all, really, but I was surprised to say the least.
I wonder if getting them to drop me off at the polling station for the May locals had any effect?
(I never have talked politics with them. They were surprised I was voting Labour too).
That said Betfair should be able to handle high traffic.
@NorstatUKPolls GB-wide Poll July 1-3
Westminster Voting Intention
Con 24% (+1%)
Lab 37% (-2%)
Lib Dem 11% (-1%)
Reform UK 16% (+1%)
Green 6% (NC)
Sample size 3,134
Changes since June 24-26
https://www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/daily-star-front-page-2024-07-04/
Thought for the day: Will this new lot be any better? Let's wait and see.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/uk-constituencies
BTW I note an extraordinary flip in autosuggestion on phones. It used to bowdlerise like crazy and my messages would say ducking bell and so on. Now it's the other way round, I was 2 letters in to distinction above and it wanted to say dickhead. Shot gets changed to shit and so on.
I will be honest. I did have a slight wobble during the campaign.
I have been a Tory->Labour switcher since 2021. There are a myriad of reasons why I’ve deserted the Tories too extensive to really go into here.
My hope for a Labour government - which I still hope for - is it has the guts to really transform our economy and society, which really isn’t working for a lot of people right now. I am not an ideologue and although I have a wariness about the role the state plays, at times when the country is on the backfoot I believe proportionate and measured intervention is helpful. I want Labour to come up with answers for the problems we face. I want them to succeed, and I want them to be bold.
Hence the wobble. The ming vase strategy has not really enamoured me to them because I want to know the basic contours of a Labour government, and what it will do in the next 5 years. And I don’t feel this campaign has yielded any answers. And I will admit to being disappointed. I expected a little more - not a lot (I know how politics works) - but a bit more meat on the bones.
Anyway I’ve reconciled myself to everything and decided that I have to just take the punt. The only other thing I could really have done is spoiled my ballot paper (sorry LDs, you’re not really for me). I couldn’t vote Tory or Farage (shudder). So down to the polls I go tomorrow to give them their (likely) whacking great majority and I just hope they use it to really get some good and competent stuff done.
A thumping endorsement of Harris will be his greatest legacy, but perhaps that's all for the good. The stupidity of the geriatric Trump vs Biden contest obliviated once and for all.
Swingback in action, apart from the government not pulling their weight!
Farage
Corbyn
Galloway
Lee Anderson
Carla Denver
Fazia Shaheen
Truss
Sunak
Fewer than three of them would be disappointing. Four would be par, and six/ seven ecstasy.
I don't mean the mainstream UK ones. I mean ones with shells in Gibraltar or elsewhere who take your money but have no means of contacting them about an unpaid bet or account problem.
What if the Russians accidentally trigger NATO in Poland and Joe doesn’t know if he's about to declare war on Medicaid or Moscow.
Rebuilding sufficient trust to go back in and convincing most of the population to be positive about the project is the work of decades, not months.
For weeks she has told me that for the first time in her life she wouldn’t vote for the Conservatives, that she would vote LibDem or Labour (edit or even Green), that the tory party had left her behind not the other way around, that she dislikes Rishi Sunak, that people like Badenoch and Braverman are thoroughly nasty etc. etc. etc.
And tonight? She has told me ...
… that she is voting Conservative
Why? Because her MP Jonathan Lord helped Seema Misa the sub post mistress who was imprisoned whilst pregnant whilst the LibDems’ Ed Davey didn’t listen.
This all has echoes of @Big_G_NorthWales
To be honest, I resigned myself to her staying blue. I didn’t criticise her though I did gently point out that she could be voting for Badenoch or Braverman (whom she professes to loathe).
A certain, perhaps significant, number always return to the fold.
Cons 100-200 seats is very much in play in my opinion.
@Casino_Royale may be interested in this
Edit @dixiedean snap
A Harris-Bernie ticket would be like Starmer replacing Reeves with Burgon. Not going to happen.
LAB: 428
CON: 107
LD: 68
REF :7
GRN: 3
Such is the state of things, I imagine the Tories would take that quite happily. 107. Their worst performance ever
More broadly, Labour aren't exactly inspiring but they're a radiant beacon of hope compared to the dross we currently have as a lame excuse for a government. Let's just keep or fingers crossed that they have some idea what they're doing; the consequences of a flop could be rather nasty, with Farage and various hard right Conservatives waiting in the wings.
Starmer is pragmatically correct, it is never going to happen, not in his lifetime or anyone's. It's done. But that doesn't mean we won't come to better arrangements vis a vis mobility and trade, there will be constant tweaks as there are between, say, Switzerland and the EU
And, of course, all this will be rendered meaningless anyway by the various technological changes coming down the line, which will make Brexit seem like a quaint, trivial skirmish compared to a global war
People are voting for them out of sheer anger at the Conservatives and a willingness to cut off their nose to spite their face.
I've never seen anything like it in my life. It's totally emotional and totally irrational. Everyone has their pet reasons (and they're mostly wholly contradictory) but the most disappointed (and angry) in future months will be those "one nation" Tories who think they voted for one of their own.
They're going to be sorely disappointed but it's no use me making any argument beforehand because I simply won't be listened to. That's fair enough but they've got to live with that decision, not me.
I'll be voting Conservative tomorrow.
Baby you and me
Got a groovy kind of Gove"
I’m not giving an excuse for Joe Biden’s debate performance and if this is the latest one, coming after having a cold, or not having his afternoon nap, then it’s pretty risible.
But jetlag is a strange thing and can sometimes hit you for a couple of weeks. Especially if you mess up the flight timings as I did on that occasion. Other times it hardly affects me.
But I note you profess to be my medic which is a new point of departure in an increasingly hostile frame of reference on here. I am, in fact, exceptionally fit and healthy (well always touch wood etc) with a resting pulse of 45. I run and walk loads, gym workouts, yoga etc. I have blood test MOTs every 6 months and my endocrinologist, who spoke to me just two days ago, is delighted as is my GP. I take my health seriously, which is one of the reasons I gave up alcohol a long time ago. And I’m very careful about what I eat (tomorrow’s scotch egg for election night being a notable exception!).
But, hey, if you think you know best ...
Staggering.
Pelosi and co need to end this now.
Mind you I think I have been on their "blacklist" since the Constitution Hill incident a few years back and get very few spam calls now.
[Phone Rings]
"Hello I'm calling about the accident you had that wasn't your fault?
>Oh the one this morning, that was quick.
[Goes quiet. Put through to someone else in what seems a big call centre with lots of chatter in the background]
Hello, can you confirm when and where the accident happened.
>10 Oclock this morning in Constitution Hill London. I must say that I am really impressed with how quickly you called me
Can you give me details of the other car involved?
>It wasn't a car it was a coach.
What type of Coach?
>Imperial State.
What was the registration number?
>Couldn't see because of all the horses in front of it.
Er. Ok. Did you get the drivers details?
>Yes. Elizabeth Windsor and her husband Duke Edinburgh.
Thank You. Now can you give me details of your name, car and registrstion number.
[Thinks, time to end this]
>Do you know who Elizabeth Windsor is?
No, who?
>The Queen.
[Long Pause]
THE QUEEN?
[Line goes dead]
Or is Vlad cyberattacking it?