One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
The next Conservative Prime Minister is almost certainly not yet an MP.
Starmer, Cameron, Blair . . . for the past half a century every new PM who has brought their party back into Downing Street was not yet an MP when the party lost office.
I’m old enough to remember people saying that about Labour in the long ago era of 2021.
It must only be three or four years ago that we were discussing which Labour MPs were going to defect to the Conservatives...
I do place *some* of the blame for the Conservative's travails on Covid. Just some, and far from all. It just has not been a pleasant five years, and I do wonder how many incumbents of democracies have suffered, and are suffering, because of its political effects.
Fine Gael returned to government in Ireland at a similar time, and in similar circumstances, to the Conservatives in Britain.
They imposed austerity in the aftermath of the great financial crash. They have presided over a deteriorating health service. They had to deal with Covid, Ukraine and inflation. They once looked doomed to election defeat by the principal opposition.
They now lead in the latest opinion poll.
The difference, I think, is all Truss.
One of the post-election problems for the Tories will be in convincing many of their core supporters that Truss was a failure. The stab-in-the-back myth is alive and well, and it's a large reason for the Farage resurgence.
What can never be know AFAIK is how many got lost in the post back to the council.
Anyone who wants to check can nip down the Town Hall and ask to inspect the record of which postal votes came back and which didn't. And the political parties can buy a copy of the complete list, if they want to do ther own checking of members and supporters.
I did not know that. Does that mean that, for example, I could check if my father-in-law voted? Seem a bit intrusive and counter to secret ballots.
Yes, who has voted and who has not is actually public information, although you are supposed to give a reason and the parties simply say "electoral purposes". You could certainly go in and check your own entry - they might look dimly if you wanted to check someone else without their permission, and that might, I guess, get refused as the Representation of the Peoples Act is specific about the reasons for accessing this data, and its candidates, registered parties and elected representatives that have priveleged rights of access.
I have always bought a copy of the "who's voted" list for every election I've stood in - it only costs about £15 or so. It's very useful information, allowing you to calibrate what people say to you on the doorstep and identifying those people who always vote and those who never bother. You'd be surprised how many people when canvassed insist they always vote a certain way, when I can see that they never vote at all, or conversely claim to be completely disinterested in politics and determined non-voters, when I can see that they voted last time. Or people who come to you wanting casework done and introduce themselves by saying "I voted for you last time!" when I can see that they didn't vote at all!
If there's a concern about the PVs after this election, in a close result, getting the list will be the first thing the party agent does.
On the face of it, there are some significant privacy issues with that list.
Some councils sent out postal votes two weeks early others didn’t . Surely it should be the same time across the country .
Even if these missing postal votes are small in number it’s disgraceful that some voters will be disenfranchised.
I think the big difference is between those with a standing postal vote, where they could be posted as soon as printed, and those who had to apply for one fir this election because they were going to be unable to attend the polling station
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
That has already happened. With respect to the Sunak / @Casino_Royale tantrum about tax, nobody at all is listening. Nobody. The party has lost all credibility to be able to attack anybody on tax and spend. The reason why the polls haven't moved is because the Tory campaign has been gaff after gaff after gaff, and has now reduced itself to pleeeeeeaase don't let Keir Starmer fuck and then eat your puppy.
Cease to be relevant in 48 hours? Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Too many to choose from.
I'm going for Partygate.
It was the Truss removal. 3 leaders so quickly demolished any idea of competence and split them internally. Prior to that things were potentially recoverable. She dropped so much they felt they had no option, but it had a deeper effect than they thought.
As someone said yesterday Sunak played a bad hand badly. It's not all his fault, but he's made it even worse.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
That has already happened. With respect to the Sunak / @Casino_Royale tantrum about tax, nobody at all is listening. Nobody. The party has lost all credibility to be able to attack anybody on tax and spend. The reason why the polls haven't moved is because the Tory campaign has been gaff after gaff after gaff, and has now reduced itself to pleeeeeeaase don't let Keir Starmer fuck and then eat your puppy.
Cease to be relevant in 48 hours? Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Too many to choose from.
I'm going for Partygate.
They were cursed from the moment they partied while HM mourned.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
The next Conservative Prime Minister is almost certainly not yet an MP.
Starmer, Cameron, Blair . . . for the past half a century every new PM who has brought their party back into Downing Street was not yet an MP when the party lost office.
I’m old enough to remember people saying that about Labour in the long ago era of 2021.
It must only be three or four years ago that we were discussing which Labour MPs were going to defect to the Conservatives...
I do place *some* of the blame for the Conservative's travails on Covid. Just some, and far from all. It just has not been a pleasant five years, and I do wonder how many incumbents of democracies have suffered, and are suffering, because of its political effects.
Fine Gael returned to government in Ireland at a similar time, and in similar circumstances, to the Conservatives in Britain.
They imposed austerity in the aftermath of the great financial crash. They have presided over a deteriorating health service. They had to deal with Covid, Ukraine and inflation. They once looked doomed to election defeat by the principal opposition.
They now lead in the latest opinion poll.
The difference, I think, is all Truss.
One of the post-election problems for the Tories will be in convincing many of their core supporters that Truss was a failure. The stab-in-the-back myth is alive and well, and it's a large reason for the Farage resurgence.
Johnson's parties and "the dog ate my homework" lies he spewed out as cover.
What can never be know AFAIK is how many got lost in the post back to the council.
Anyone who wants to check can nip down the Town Hall and ask to inspect the record of which postal votes came back and which didn't. And the political parties can buy a copy of the complete list, if they want to do ther own checking of members and supporters.
I did not know that. Does that mean that, for example, I could check if my father-in-law voted? Seem a bit intrusive and counter to secret ballots.
It's never been as entirely secret as people think, even if in practice it is most of the time.
Barclay is more likely next Tory leader than Badenoch in my view, with Tory MPs putting Tugendhat with him to members. On Badenoch's seat, if a postal vote is postmarked as sent before polling day it should be included
That's not the rule. We are not California.
Postal votes have to be recieved (not postmarked) by the end of the day on July 4th.
It is wrong to change the rules mid election.
Absolutely. I think that American rule is barmy myself, but various challenges to it in 2020 were fruitless because you cannot change the rules in the middle of the game. Our election officials certainly cannot decide such a thing.
Which party is likely to get the most postal votes? I am not sure there is a answer to this question.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
They won a majority of 80 in December 2019...
At the cost of the party. At that election anyone who didn't worship Brexit and BoZo was prevented from standing.
And here we are...
As the Telegraph said yesterday, the Tory Party are the latest victims of Brexit
On a wider front, how many seats are going to be up for a legal challenge due to postal vote delays?
At least 45 constituencies are affected by postal delays, including Braintree in Essex, where James Cleverly, the home secretary, is standing. Grant Shapps has also raised concerns about postal voting delays in his Welwyn Hatfield constituency in Hertfordshire, where he is defending a majority of 11,000.
It does rather depend on the majority being less than the number of postal votes sent out but not returned...
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
That has already happened. With respect to the Sunak / @Casino_Royale tantrum about tax, nobody at all is listening. Nobody. The party has lost all credibility to be able to attack anybody on tax and spend. The reason why the polls haven't moved is because the Tory campaign has been gaff after gaff after gaff, and has now reduced itself to pleeeeeeaase don't let Keir Starmer fuck and then eat your puppy.
Cease to be relevant in 48 hours? Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Too many to choose from.
I'm going for Partygate.
The tax strategy has not worked. That is for sure.
The Class 13 was used in only *one* location (Tinsley Yard, Sheffield). I wonder if the Greens like humping as much as the 13s did?
The Class 31 for Farage? I'd go with that, as long as you call it the Class 30 (they were initially built as Class 30, but the engines were so cr@p they were re-engined and made into Class 31. As which they were reasonably successful.)
Corbyn should be a Class 28. Beloved by some; an utter failure as a class, and soon made redundant.
Now, the real question is who is a Clayton Class 17; perhaps one of the worst 'modern' locos ever built. I'd got for Change UK? A short life, utter failure, and ended up stored unserviceable throughout the UK?
The brave don't wait for the final MRPs...... WOOLIES FINAL CALL LABOUR 399 (38%) CONSERVATIVE 134 (26%) LD 38 (11%) SNP 20 (3%) SF 6 DUP 6 REFORM 5 (13%) PC 3 GREEN 3 (5%) INDEPENDENTS 3 (corbyn, yakoob, iqbal in Dewsbury) ALLIANCE 2 SDLP 2 UUP 2 WORKERS GB 2 (more than 225,000 total votes)
LABOUR MAJORITY 148
SDP will get over 75,000 votes, 0 seats
Which app do you put your figures in to get the seat count?
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
That has already happened. With respect to the Sunak / @Casino_Royale tantrum about tax, nobody at all is listening. Nobody. The party has lost all credibility to be able to attack anybody on tax and spend. The reason why the polls haven't moved is because the Tory campaign has been gaff after gaff after gaff, and has now reduced itself to pleeeeeeaase don't let Keir Starmer fuck and then eat your puppy.
Cease to be relevant in 48 hours? Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Too many to choose from.
I'm going for Partygate.
It was the Truss removal. 3 leaders so quickly demolished any idea of competence and split them internally. Prior to that things were potentially recoverable. She dropped so much they felt they had no option, but it had a deeper effect than they thought.
As someone said yesterday Sunak played a bad hand badly. It's not all his fault, but he's made it even worse.
The wine did look good at the party. Nearly the last nail in the coffin.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
The next Conservative Prime Minister is almost certainly not yet an MP.
Starmer, Cameron, Blair . . . for the past half a century every new PM who has brought their party back into Downing Street was not yet an MP when the party lost office.
I’m old enough to remember people saying that about Labour in the long ago era of 2021.
It must only be three or four years ago that we were discussing which Labour MPs were going to defect to the Conservatives...
I do place *some* of the blame for the Conservative's travails on Covid. Just some, and far from all. It just has not been a pleasant five years, and I do wonder how many incumbents of democracies have suffered, and are suffering, because of its political effects.
Fine Gael returned to government in Ireland at a similar time, and in similar circumstances, to the Conservatives in Britain.
They imposed austerity in the aftermath of the great financial crash. They have presided over a deteriorating health service. They had to deal with Covid, Ukraine and inflation. They once looked doomed to election defeat by the principal opposition.
They now lead in the latest opinion poll.
The difference, I think, is all Truss.
One of the post-election problems for the Tories will be in convincing many of their core supporters that Truss was a failure. The stab-in-the-back myth is alive and well, and it's a large reason for the Farage resurgence.
Johnson's parties and "the dog ate my homework" lies he spewed out as cover.
I mean, maybe, but that feels like a regular normal scandal in comparison to Truss. Something like Leo the Leak.
It's like the argument that the dinosaurs were heading for extinction before the asteroid came along. With the asteroid obliterating everything how can you tell what effect other factors might have had?
Trump must be stopped means by democratic means. If it doesn't Biden could order Trump's immediate execution on grounds of national security under absurd power bestowed upon him as incumbent President.
Barclay is more likely next Tory leader than Badenoch in my view, with Tory MPs putting Tugendhat with him to members. On Badenoch's seat, if a postal vote is postmarked as sent before polling day it should be included
That's not the rule. We are not California.
Postal votes have to be recieved (not postmarked) by the end of the day on July 4th.
It is wrong to change the rules mid election.
Absolutely. I think that American rule is barmy myself, but various challenges to it in 2020 were fruitless because you cannot change the rules in the middle of the game. Our election officials certainly cannot decide such a thing.
Which party is likely to get the most postal votes? I am not sure there is a answer to this question.
I'd assume Labour. When you're this far ahead with votes in general you're probably getting most postal votes, even if they skew older.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
That has already happened. With respect to the Sunak / @Casino_Royale tantrum about tax, nobody at all is listening. Nobody. The party has lost all credibility to be able to attack anybody on tax and spend. The reason why the polls haven't moved is because the Tory campaign has been gaff after gaff after gaff, and has now reduced itself to pleeeeeeaase don't let Keir Starmer fuck and then eat your puppy.
Cease to be relevant in 48 hours? Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Too many to choose from.
I'm going for Partygate.
I think it was actually Truss v. Lettuce. The many and various things you could pick coalesced into that image and the mood changed. Who'd've thought it was "The Star Wot Done It".
On a wider front, how many seats are going to be up for a legal challenge due to postal vote delays?
At least 45 constituencies are affected by postal delays, including Braintree in Essex, where James Cleverly, the home secretary, is standing. Grant Shapps has also raised concerns about postal voting delays in his Welwyn Hatfield constituency in Hertfordshire, where he is defending a majority of 11,000.
It's a good job the Tories privatised Royal Mail and made it much more efficient. Can you imagine the chaos if it was still in the public sector and deliveries could be relied on?
Similarly, thank you too Tories for privatising the water companies, buses and rail. It's heart-warming to see profits and long-term strategic investment sucked out of them too.
The brave don't wait for the final MRPs...... WOOLIES FINAL CALL LABOUR 399 (38%) CONSERVATIVE 134 (26%) LD 38 (11%) SNP 20 (3%) SF 6 DUP 6 REFORM 5 (13%) PC 3 GREEN 3 (5%) INDEPENDENTS 3 (corbyn, yakoob, iqbal in Dewsbury) ALLIANCE 2 SDLP 2 UUP 2 WORKERS GB 2 (more than 225,000 total votes)
LABOUR MAJORITY 148
SDP will get over 75,000 votes, 0 seats
Which app do you put your figures in to get the seat count?
I didn't, its my interpretation based on a combination of factors - MRPs, gut feeling, a bit of baxtering, UNS firewalls, seats visited etc
On a wider front, how many seats are going to be up for a legal challenge due to postal vote delays?
At least 45 constituencies are affected by postal delays, including Braintree in Essex, where James Cleverly, the home secretary, is standing. Grant Shapps has also raised concerns about postal voting delays in his Welwyn Hatfield constituency in Hertfordshire, where he is defending a majority of 11,000.
Is this a delay in sending them out in all these councils? If so that’s unbelievable - you don’t see mass incompetence on something like this
On a wider front, how many seats are going to be up for a legal challenge due to postal vote delays?
At least 45 constituencies are affected by postal delays, including Braintree in Essex, where James Cleverly, the home secretary, is standing. Grant Shapps has also raised concerns about postal voting delays in his Welwyn Hatfield constituency in Hertfordshire, where he is defending a majority of 11,000.
Is this a delay in sending them out in all these councils? If so that’s unbelievable - you don’t see mass incompetence on something like this
Barclay is more likely next Tory leader than Badenoch in my view, with Tory MPs putting Tugendhat with him to members. On Badenoch's seat, if a postal vote is postmarked as sent before polling day it should be included
You know that PVs have to arrive before close of polls to be counted.
I doubt it will be a big issue, unless the result there really is on a knifeedge. The balance of PVs won't be hugely different from the on-the-day votes.
Well, it might be, given that the elderly are disproportionately more likely to use a postal vote and are (these days, marginally) more likely to vote for the Tories. Mind you if Kemi B had a majority of under 1000, I think her political capital as leader would be pretty dramatically lowered anyway.
This is a good summary of why the Tories deserve to lose -
"Yet beyond all that, my biggest issue lies with the moral quagmire the party has mired itself in. Through the various scandals that have plagued the party over the last few years, the leadership has failed to respond with anything other than political posturing. The sins are almost too numerous to recall – lobbying scandals, sexual harassment, Partygate, and the tawdry gambling issue of the last few weeks.On each of these, it was not just the original error, but the way the party contorted itself away from any sense of contrition or repentance. Political and policy failings are one thing, people are entitled to get things wrong – but this repeated retreat from decency is something the party needs to be shaken out of."
But really it no longer matters much what happens on Thursday IMO. The recent Supreme Court judgment, its consequences for American democracy, a Trump win and what that means for Ukraine and European security are the "events" which will impact the next few years. Tough times ahead, I fear.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
That has already happened. With respect to the Sunak / @Casino_Royale tantrum about tax, nobody at all is listening. Nobody. The party has lost all credibility to be able to attack anybody on tax and spend. The reason why the polls haven't moved is because the Tory campaign has been gaff after gaff after gaff, and has now reduced itself to pleeeeeeaase don't let Keir Starmer fuck and then eat your puppy.
Cease to be relevant in 48 hours? Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Too many to choose from.
I'm going for Partygate.
It was the Truss removal. 3 leaders so quickly demolished any idea of competence and split them internally. Prior to that things were potentially recoverable. She dropped so much they felt they had no option, but it had a deeper effect than they thought.
As someone said yesterday Sunak played a bad hand badly. It's not all his fault, but he's made it even worse.
Was it? I would go back a bit further and say it was the leadership election where both Truss and Rishi promised things that weren't in the manifesto.
Once you started to see those promises being implemented it was clear that the Tory party cared more for themselves than the electorate..
er gaff, and has now reduced itself to pleeeeeeaase don't let Keir Starmer fuck and then eat your puppy.
Cease to be relevant in 48 hours? Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
Relevant isn't the correct word because they are still the government, can shape events and will likely be the opposition from Friday. Thus they are and will be relevant.
The point at which they became doomed to lose beyond any hope of recovery was probably the by-election defeat after O-Patz was chucked out in December 2021. That's when the polls crossed over and it's been shit all the way down since then.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
That has already happened. With respect to the Sunak / @Casino_Royale tantrum about tax, nobody at all is listening. Nobody. The party has lost all credibility to be able to attack anybody on tax and spend. The reason why the polls haven't moved is because the Tory campaign has been gaff after gaff after gaff, and has now reduced itself to pleeeeeeaase don't let Keir Starmer fuck and then eat your puppy.
Cease to be relevant in 48 hours? Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Too many to choose from.
I'm going for Partygate.
It's like the murder mystery trope where Everyone Did It. But my pet theory is that something like this has been incoming since the late 90s.
The generation of young people who became Conservative in the late Major/early Blair era were... unusual. A bit too obsessed with Europe. Too aware of the stories of late era Maggie. More interested in abstractions than running things.
And the career pipeline means that those unusual people have been the ones in charge for the last fourteen years.
If I'm right, it's Blair's fault really, for winning so one-sidedly. And the Conservative Party of 2040 or so will be a sight to behold.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
That has already happened. With respect to the Sunak / @Casino_Royale tantrum about tax, nobody at all is listening. Nobody. The party has lost all credibility to be able to attack anybody on tax and spend. The reason why the polls haven't moved is because the Tory campaign has been gaff after gaff after gaff, and has now reduced itself to pleeeeeeaase don't let Keir Starmer fuck and then eat your puppy.
Cease to be relevant in 48 hours? Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
The Tories cease to be relevant the day after tomorrow. There are many causes starting with Brexit. That's when they stopped being the pragmatic party and the party of business.
Some councils sent out postal votes two weeks early others didn’t . Surely it should be the same time across the country .
Even if these missing postal votes are small in number it’s disgraceful that some voters will be disenfranchised.
I think the big difference is between those with a standing postal vote, where they could be posted as soon as printed, and those who had to apply for one fir this election because they were going to be unable to attend the polling station
And then you have the question of do you do it in 2 stages, early and then a followup for requests or a single task at the end once you know where they need to go..
Anyway, before we write the Tories off, shouldn't we get an update from Casino on what's 'cutting through' on the doorstep / with my work colleagues?
Why the snarky dig? Did it make you feel clever or part of the gang? It’s good to hear from CR so we have the thoughts of a staunch but disappointed Tory and his work colleagues or friends even if through a filter.
I know you are high on the fact that Labour are about to win big and the evil Tories are going to be smashed so enjoy it for now but no need to be a twat.
Trump must be stopped means by democratic means. If it doesn't Biden could order Trump's immediate execution on grounds of national security under absurd power bestowed upon him as incumbent President.
Trump and Starmer. If The Don Falls out with Keir. He could punish the UK. Labour do not want to spend enough on defence. Donald will not accept that. Rayner will deal with him.
The brave don't wait for the final MRPs...... WOOLIES FINAL CALL LABOUR 399 (38%) CONSERVATIVE 134 (26%) LD 38 (11%) SNP 20 (3%) SF 6 DUP 6 REFORM 5 (13%) PC 3 GREEN 3 (5%) INDEPENDENTS 3 (corbyn, yakoob, iqbal in Dewsbury) ALLIANCE 2 SDLP 2 UUP 2 WORKERS GB 2 (more than 225,000 total votes)
LABOUR MAJORITY 148
SDP will get over 75,000 votes, 0 seats
Which app do you put your figures in to get the seat count?
I didn't, its my interpretation based on a combination of factors - MRPs, gut feeling, a bit of baxtering, UNS firewalls etc
Ok. Where I am is broadly in line with yours. 37, 26, Rf 14, LD 11 Gn-5 Not sure what that means for seats. I have bet on Yakub after your tip. I have also bet on Rf in the working class seats and Con in the Jewish majority seats for long odds.
Anyway, before we write the Tories off, shouldn't we get an update from Casino on what's 'cutting through' on the doorstep / with my work colleagues?
Why the snarky dig? Did it make you feel clever or part of the gang? It’s good to hear from CR so we have the thoughts of a staunch but disappointed Tory and his work colleagues or friends even of through a filter.
I know you are high on the fact that Labour are about to win big and the evil Tories are going to be smashed so enjoy it for now but no need to be a twat.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
I agree although leadership elections are usually interesting. I am 62. Tomorrow may be the last day of Conservative government I see. I hope that the idiots voting for Reform tomorrow are happy with that. 10-15 years of Labour government will see a lot of them out.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
Gloating is a very unpleasant characteristic
People may disagree with you, but they are voting what they believe is best for the country
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
The next Conservative Prime Minister is almost certainly not yet an MP.
Starmer, Cameron, Blair . . . for the past half a century every new PM who has brought their party back into Downing Street was not yet an MP when the party lost office.
I’m old enough to remember people saying that about Labour in the long ago era of 2021.
It must only be three or four years ago that we were discussing which Labour MPs were going to defect to the Conservatives...
I do place *some* of the blame for the Conservative's travails on Covid. Just some, and far from all. It just has not been a pleasant five years, and I do wonder how many incumbents of democracies have suffered, and are suffering, because of its political effects.
Fine Gael returned to government in Ireland at a similar time, and in similar circumstances, to the Conservatives in Britain.
They imposed austerity in the aftermath of the great financial crash. They have presided over a deteriorating health service. They had to deal with Covid, Ukraine and inflation. They once looked doomed to election defeat by the principal opposition.
They now lead in the latest opinion poll.
The difference, I think, is all Truss.
One of the post-election problems for the Tories will be in convincing many of their core supporters that Truss was a failure. The stab-in-the-back myth is alive and well, and it's a large reason for the Farage resurgence.
Johnson's parties and "the dog ate my homework" lies he spewed out as cover.
I mean, maybe, but that feels like a regular normal scandal in comparison to Truss. Something like Leo the Leak.
It's like the argument that the dinosaurs were heading for extinction before the asteroid came along. With the asteroid obliterating everything how can you tell what effect other factors might have had?
All roads lead back to Boris Johnson, and yet he pops up yesterday to pat himself on the back and gaslight Starmer over the accusation that Starmer would be a "part time Prime Minister". The sort of Prime Minister who missed five Cobra meetings perhaps.
Truss merely tried to put out the fire using fire extinguishers she had filled with kerosene.
The brave don't wait for the final MRPs...... WOOLIES FINAL CALL LABOUR 399 (38%) CONSERVATIVE 134 (26%) LD 38 (11%) SNP 20 (3%) SF 6 DUP 6 REFORM 5 (13%) PC 3 GREEN 3 (5%) INDEPENDENTS 3 (corbyn, yakoob, iqbal in Dewsbury) ALLIANCE 2 SDLP 2 UUP 2 WORKERS GB 2 (more than 225,000 total votes)
LABOUR MAJORITY 148
SDP will get over 75,000 votes, 0 seats
Which app do you put your figures in to get the seat count?
I didn't, its my interpretation based on a combination of factors - MRPs, gut feeling, a bit of baxtering, UNS firewalls etc
Ok. Where I am is broadly in line with yours. 37, 26, Rf 14, LD 11 Gn-5 Not sure what that means for seats. I have bet on Yakub after your tip. I have also bet on Rf in the working class seats and Con in the Jewish majority seats for long odds.
Then I hope yakoob pulls it off on your behalf! It's no certainty but it will be close
Anyway, before we write the Tories off, shouldn't we get an update from Casino on what's 'cutting through' on the doorstep / with my work colleagues?
Why the snarky dig? Did it make you feel clever or part of the gang? It’s good to hear from CR so we have the thoughts of a staunch but disappointed Tory and his work colleagues or friends even of through a filter.
I know you are high on the fact that Labour are about to win big and the evil Tories are going to be smashed so enjoy it for now but no need to be a twat.
Oh dear, feeling a bit sore are we?
Not really, whatever the result on Thursday/Friday my life goes on unaffected, my taxes don’t change, the laws I live and work under don’t change either but a well thought out and cutting response from you all the same.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
That has already happened. With respect to the Sunak / @Casino_Royale tantrum about tax, nobody at all is listening. Nobody. The party has lost all credibility to be able to attack anybody on tax and spend. The reason why the polls haven't moved is because the Tory campaign has been gaff after gaff after gaff, and has now reduced itself to pleeeeeeaase don't let Keir Starmer fuck and then eat your puppy.
Cease to be relevant in 48 hours? Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Too many to choose from.
I'm going for Partygate.
It was the Truss removal. 3 leaders so quickly demolished any idea of competence and split them internally. Prior to that things were potentially recoverable. She dropped so much they felt they had no option, but it had a deeper effect than they thought.
As someone said yesterday Sunak played a bad hand badly. It's not all his fault, but he's made it even worse.
Was it? I would go back a bit further and say it was the leadership election where both Truss and Rishi promised things that weren't in the manifesto.
Once you started to see those promises being implemented it was clear that the Tory party cared more for themselves than the electorate..
Yes, the myopic way they treated that election as some kind of race to the bottom on tax was a slap in the face of voters who had voted for one kind of Toryism and got another. And it didn’t help that what people got was - Liz Truss.
It severed a very, very important thread of trust with the electorate which was already badly frayed with Partygate.
I happen to think Partygate probably did for them in all actuality - it might not have led to outright defeat at this GE but I don’t think they’d have clung on to a majority. Of course, everything they did after that made it worse.
It also means if she narrowly lost in a wipeout scenario she could get a second munch
Gerry Malone waves hello.
And what a by election that was. I have so many stories from it. It was tremendous fun. We were all invited in for the declaration by the police and also entertainment provided by Screaming Lord Such at the party afterwards.
Please share them.
Will do later. Out delivering now. But a couple of snippets:
Only election where I have been stopped on the street several times by people wanting to tell you they are going to vote for you or asking for window posters. Normally people avoid you as if you had the plague.
Made an executive decision not to canvas the house that the fire brigade were putting out.
Morning all, the final days of the campaign have been, if anything, worse than any of the previous days. The sight of high ranking Reform preying on the credulity of voters by alleging some sort of Machiavellian scheme by the Tories to shaft them is a particular low. I mean it’s hilarious they think the Tories retain the level of competence necessary, but it’s dispiriting how many people seem willing to fall for this obvious nonsense.
Anyway I’ve struggled with where my vote will be going. I’m now 90% decided that for the first time in a quarter of a century of voting I will vote for my local Labour candidate.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
The next Conservative Prime Minister is almost certainly not yet an MP.
Starmer, Cameron, Blair . . . for the past half a century every new PM who has brought their party back into Downing Street was not yet an MP when the party lost office.
I’m old enough to remember people saying that about Labour in the long ago era of 2021.
It must only be three or four years ago that we were discussing which Labour MPs were going to defect to the Conservatives...
I do place *some* of the blame for the Conservative's travails on Covid. Just some, and far from all. It just has not been a pleasant five years, and I do wonder how many incumbents of democracies have suffered, and are suffering, because of its political effects.
Fine Gael returned to government in Ireland at a similar time, and in similar circumstances, to the Conservatives in Britain.
They imposed austerity in the aftermath of the great financial crash. They have presided over a deteriorating health service. They had to deal with Covid, Ukraine and inflation. They once looked doomed to election defeat by the principal opposition.
They now lead in the latest opinion poll.
The difference, I think, is all Truss.
One of the post-election problems for the Tories will be in convincing many of their core supporters that Truss was a failure. The stab-in-the-back myth is alive and well, and it's a large reason for the Farage resurgence.
Johnson's parties and "the dog ate my homework" lies he spewed out as cover.
The brave don't wait for the final MRPs...... WOOLIES FINAL CALL LABOUR 399 (38%) CONSERVATIVE 134 (26%) LD 38 (11%) SNP 20 (3%) SF 6 DUP 6 REFORM 5 (13%) PC 3 GREEN 3 (5%) INDEPENDENTS 3 (corbyn, yakoob, iqbal in Dewsbury) ALLIANCE 2 SDLP 2 UUP 2 WORKERS GB 2 (more than 225,000 total votes)
LABOUR MAJORITY 148
SDP will get over 75,000 votes, 0 seats
Which app do you put your figures in to get the seat count?
I didn't, its my interpretation based on a combination of factors - MRPs, gut feeling, a bit of baxtering, UNS firewalls etc
Ok. Where I am is broadly in line with yours. 37, 26, Rf 14, LD 11 Gn-5 Not sure what that means for seats. I have bet on Yakub after your tip. I have also bet on Rf in the working class seats and Con in the Jewish majority seats for long odds.
Then I hope yakoob pulls it off on your behalf! It's no certainty but it will be close
That was a mental image I could have done without.
This is a good summary of why the Tories deserve to lose -
"Yet beyond all that, my biggest issue lies with the moral quagmire the party has mired itself in. Through the various scandals that have plagued the party over the last few years, the leadership has failed to respond with anything other than political posturing. The sins are almost too numerous to recall – lobbying scandals, sexual harassment, Partygate, and the tawdry gambling issue of the last few weeks.On each of these, it was not just the original error, but the way the party contorted itself away from any sense of contrition or repentance. Political and policy failings are one thing, people are entitled to get things wrong – but this repeated retreat from decency is something the party needs to be shaken out of."
But really it no longer matters much what happens on Thursday IMO. The recent Supreme Court judgment, its consequences for American democracy, a Trump win and what that means for Ukraine and European security are the "events" which will impact the next few years. Tough times ahead, I fear.
Certainly looks like Starmer will have to leave the domestic side of policy to Reeves and Fadden while he deals with very threatening international situation.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
That has already happened. With respect to the Sunak / @Casino_Royale tantrum about tax, nobody at all is listening. Nobody. The party has lost all credibility to be able to attack anybody on tax and spend. The reason why the polls haven't moved is because the Tory campaign has been gaff after gaff after gaff, and has now reduced itself to pleeeeeeaase don't let Keir Starmer fuck and then eat your puppy.
Cease to be relevant in 48 hours? Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Too many to choose from.
I'm going for Partygate.
It was the Truss removal. 3 leaders so quickly demolished any idea of competence and split them internally. Prior to that things were potentially recoverable. She dropped so much they felt they had no option, but it had a deeper effect than they thought.
As someone said yesterday Sunak played a bad hand badly. It's not all his fault, but he's made it even worse.
Was it? I would go back a bit further and say it was the leadership election where both Truss and Rishi promised things that weren't in the manifesto.
Once you started to see those promises being implemented it was clear that the Tory party cared more for themselves than the electorate..
Yes, the myopic way they treated that election as some kind of race to the bottom on tax was a slap in the face of voters who had voted for one kind of Toryism and got another. And it didn’t help that what people got was - Liz Truss.
It severed a very, very important thread of trust with the electorate which was already badly frayed with Partygate.
I happen to think Partygate probably did for them in all actuality - it might not have led to outright defeat at this GE but I don’t think they’d have clung on to a majority. Of course, everything they did after that made it worse.
Boris brought into Brexit to be PM. His reign of terror finished him off during covid. I suspect if he knew about the pandemic beforehand he would not of opted to be PM. Charming he is, shallow. Great imagination and the best liar there is out there.
Morning all, the final days of the campaign have been, if anything, worse than any of the previous days. The sight of high ranking Reform preying on the credulity of voters by alleging some sort of Machiavellian scheme by the Tories to shaft them is a particular low. I mean it’s hilarious they think the Tories retain the level of competence necessary, but it’s dispiriting how many people seem willing to fall for this obvious nonsense.
Anyway I’ve struggled with where my vote will be going. I’m now 90% decided that for the first time in a quarter of a century of voting I will vote for my local Labour candidate.
Also, isn't she the minister responsible for the Royal Mail?
Yup. Minister for the post office too.
Imagine not voting for the Lib Dems because Sir Ed Davey was Post Office Minister a decade ago but happy to vote Tory after they gave Paula Vennells a gong.
I don’t think you can really blame the Tories for that. She was a candidate for +London and a former CEO of a state owned company.
She’d have been automatically included on the list by a civil servant and no one in the government thought to take her off.
As I posted on here yesterday, some councils are worried that postal vote returns are at historically low levels but while that could be due to the post it is more likely due to postal voters sitting it out imo.
I assume every council will be logging the number of requests they are getting for 'my postal vote hasn't arrived'; there are ways and means of dealing with most of those. What can never be know AFAIK is how many got lost in the post back to the council.
Since returns are more likely to be delayed than lost, what is to stop the council keeping all the late returns and checking to see if they would have affected the outcome... and only having a re-run if the winner would have bee changed had all the postal votes arrived back in time?
The figures quoted overnight didn't look unusually low? Nowadays a lot of people like to take their PVs to the polling station on the day.
What am I missing here? What's the point of taking your postal vote to the polling station rather than voting in person?
Some people don't trust the post. Some people like the feeling of participation that going down the polls gives. Some people put the ballot behind the clock and only remember when it comes on the news that it's polling day. Some people want to see the whole campaign before making up their mind at the last minute. Some people never really wanted a postal vote but are stuck with one either because they applied for one once but mistakenly ticked the 'perpetual' box, or were pestered into getting one by their preferred political party. Some people have a PV because their working arrangements are variable and unpredictable, and only find out they'll be home on polling day nearer the time. Some people have forgotten about it and are reminded by political canvassers or knockers up who are calling on postal voters to remind them to vote. Etc.
I have a PV because it cuts my lecky bills by about 60%.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
That has already happened. With respect to the Sunak / @Casino_Royale tantrum about tax, nobody at all is listening. Nobody. The party has lost all credibility to be able to attack anybody on tax and spend. The reason why the polls haven't moved is because the Tory campaign has been gaff after gaff after gaff, and has now reduced itself to pleeeeeeaase don't let Keir Starmer fuck and then eat your puppy.
Cease to be relevant in 48 hours? Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
I'm saying this to be deviled apricot a bit... but honourable mention here for Sturgeon's scandal and resignation. The SNP has been an irrelevance in this campaign, but Sturgeon's SNP were incredibly useful to the Tories as bogeymen for English voters. The message that a weak and vacillating Labour leader would have rings run round him by a sharp, tough Sturgeon in her pomp really played well for them. But the SNP are now seen as waning, and Swinney isn't going to be running rings around anyone. The Tories lost a real trump card there.
I mean, in truth there are several factors at play - particularly Partygate and the Truss/Kwarteng budget. But the Coalition of Chaos theme, with Sturgeon at its heart, is just so much stronger than, "If Starmer has a large majority, Michael Fabricant will be less able to scrutinise every sub-section of the Dangerous Cats Bill 2026 in the forensic manner for which he is justly famed".
Trump must be stopped means by democratic means. If it doesn't Biden could order Trump's immediate execution on grounds of national security under absurd power bestowed upon him as incumbent President.
If Mr Biden ordered Mr Trump executed as "official business", does that get Trump a Darwin Award?
Morning all, the final days of the campaign have been, if anything, worse than any of the previous days. The sight of high ranking Reform preying on the credulity of voters by alleging some sort of Machiavellian scheme by the Tories to shaft them is a particular low. I mean it’s hilarious they think the Tories retain the level of competence necessary, but it’s dispiriting how many people seem willing to fall for this obvious nonsense.
Anyway I’ve struggled with where my vote will be going. I’m now 90% decided that for the first time in a quarter of a century of voting I will vote for my local Labour candidate.
Bit of a trend in Scotland. The other notable thing is a small recovery in the Lib Dem vote in a couple of Scottish polls.
Scotland needs two polls. A central belt poll, and an everywhere else poll. Even assuming this one poll does show what is happening overall, the question is where is it happening.
Lets put it like this. If the SNP canvas returns were as good as this, Swinney would not be campaigning in seats where they hold a 15k majority and getting Flynn to beg Labour and LDs for votes...
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
I agree although leadership elections are usually interesting. I am 62. Tomorrow may be the last day of Conservative government I see. I hope that the idiots voting for Reform tomorrow are happy with that. 10-15 years of Labour government will see a lot of them out.
Most of the reform people will be dead and buried by the time Labour have gone.
On a wider front, how many seats are going to be up for a legal challenge due to postal vote delays?
At least 45 constituencies are affected by postal delays, including Braintree in Essex, where James Cleverly, the home secretary, is standing. Grant Shapps has also raised concerns about postal voting delays in his Welwyn Hatfield constituency in Hertfordshire, where he is defending a majority of 11,000.
Is this a delay in sending them out in all these councils? If so that’s unbelievable - you don’t see mass incompetence on something like this
Business as Usual. Rule Britannia!
Screaming Eagles reminds us that "at least 45 constituencies are affected by postal delays". But that's far less than Labour's likely lead over all other parties, so it won't affect the vital question "who can form a government?" - and it's highly unlikely to affect the (tbh secondary, and highly improbable) question of whether the Tories or the LibDems should provide the Leader of the Opposition.
So what we're likely to see early on Friday is a lot of upset people complaining about something they've every right to be aggrieved about, but isn't at all urgent to sort out. Followed by a promise from Starmer to conduct an inquiry and possibly some adjustment to electoral rules and/or Royal Mail's supervision in the following year.
And I suspect not even Farage will have the chutzpah to try justifying a Trump-like invasion of Parliament over the time it'll take to sort the mess out.
Scotland seems very sensible in not drinking the Farage Kool-Aid.
More generally, I get the impression that Farage's balloon has been slowly deflating this past couple of weeks. People are realising that one or two MPs are not going to make any difference.
We have had multiple canvas teams out for weeks. What is remarkable is the sheer number of people STILL undecided just days before polling. There is certainly the potential for significnt numbers of those to have voted Conservative by tomorrow night.
I still refuse to believe polling that shows more than half of the 2019 Conservative vote has departed. That is not consistent with my experience (at least until this week, when I have been hors de combat with Covid). A third I could believe. But not more than half.
Be wary of "everybody hates the Tories" narratives from social media. There is an army of Conservative voters who will keep their thoughts to themselves, other than to a Conservative door-knoocker.
The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts Westminster voting intention
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
That has already happened. With respect to the Sunak / @Casino_Royale tantrum about tax, nobody at all is listening. Nobody. The party has lost all credibility to be able to attack anybody on tax and spend. The reason why the polls haven't moved is because the Tory campaign has been gaff after gaff after gaff, and has now reduced itself to pleeeeeeaase don't let Keir Starmer fuck and then eat your puppy.
Cease to be relevant in 48 hours? Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Too many to choose from.
I'm going for Partygate.
It was the Truss removal. 3 leaders so quickly demolished any idea of competence and split them internally. Prior to that things were potentially recoverable. She dropped so much they felt they had no option, but it had a deeper effect than they thought.
As someone said yesterday Sunak played a bad hand badly. It's not all his fault, but he's made it even worse.
Was it? I would go back a bit further and say it was the leadership election where both Truss and Rishi promised things that weren't in the manifesto.
Once you started to see those promises being implemented it was clear that the Tory party cared more for themselves than the electorate..
Yes, the myopic way they treated that election as some kind of race to the bottom on tax was a slap in the face of voters who had voted for one kind of Toryism and got another. And it didn’t help that what people got was - Liz Truss.
It severed a very, very important thread of trust with the electorate which was already badly frayed with Partygate.
I happen to think Partygate probably did for them in all actuality - it might not have led to outright defeat at this GE but I don’t think they’d have clung on to a majority. Of course, everything they did after that made it worse.
Boris brought into Brexit to be PM. His reign of terror finished him off during covid. I suspect if he knew about the pandemic beforehand he would not of opted to be PM. Charming he is, shallow. Great imagination and the best liar there is out there.
You're far too kind to him imo. He's a narcissistic privileged delinquent who f*cked the country over without a second thought.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
That has already happened. With respect to the Sunak / @Casino_Royale tantrum about tax, nobody at all is listening. Nobody. The party has lost all credibility to be able to attack anybody on tax and spend. The reason why the polls haven't moved is because the Tory campaign has been gaff after gaff after gaff, and has now reduced itself to pleeeeeeaase don't let Keir Starmer fuck and then eat your puppy.
Cease to be relevant in 48 hours? Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
I'm saying this to be deviled apricot a bit... but honourable mention here for Sturgeon's scandal and resignation. The SNP has been an irrelevance in this campaign, but Sturgeon's SNP were incredibly useful to the Tories as bogeymen for English voters. The message that a weak and vacillating Labour leader would have rings run round him by a sharp, tough Sturgeon in her pomp really played well for them. But the SNP are now seen as waning, and Swinney isn't going to be running rings around anyone. The Tories lost a real trump card there.
I mean, in truth there are several factors at play - particularly Partygate and the Truss/Kwarteng budget. But the Coalition of Chaos theme, with Sturgeon at its heart, is just so much stronger than, "If Starmer has a large majority, Michael Fabricant will be less able to scrutinise every sub-section of the Dangerous Cats Bill 2026 in the forensic manner for which he is justly famed".
My own vote goes to the Furlough scheme.
Very generous and gave people the expectation that the Govt will always bail them out.
Will end in tears; eventual IMF bailout, I suspect.
The first vulture has started picking at the corpse of the Conservative Party
Please withdraw that wicked slur on vultures. They are useful creatures who do a valuable job of work removing carrion that might otherwise cause a health hazard.
Braverman is, er, not...
She is damaging her wing of the party
I think disloyalty will be a charge. She’s made an error writing this before the election
The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts Westminster voting intention
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
The real disaster there for the Tories would be the LDs in second place by seat count, therefore being the official Opposition with all the funding and Parliamentary time that comes from that position.
This is a good summary of why the Tories deserve to lose -
"Yet beyond all that, my biggest issue lies with the moral quagmire the party has mired itself in. Through the various scandals that have plagued the party over the last few years, the leadership has failed to respond with anything other than political posturing. The sins are almost too numerous to recall – lobbying scandals, sexual harassment, Partygate, and the tawdry gambling issue of the last few weeks.On each of these, it was not just the original error, but the way the party contorted itself away from any sense of contrition or repentance. Political and policy failings are one thing, people are entitled to get things wrong – but this repeated retreat from decency is something the party needs to be shaken out of."
But really it no longer matters much what happens on Thursday IMO. The recent Supreme Court judgment, its consequences for American democracy, a Trump win and what that means for Ukraine and European security are the "events" which will impact the next few years. Tough times ahead, I fear.
Certainly looks like Starmer will have to leave the domestic side of policy to Reeves and Fadden while he deals with very threatening international situation.
Time to rearm.
Which requires money being taken from someone.
Oldies, benefit recipients, public sector workers.
The choice isn't from which as it will be from all of them.
Morning all, the final days of the campaign have been, if anything, worse than any of the previous days. The sight of high ranking Reform preying on the credulity of voters by alleging some sort of Machiavellian scheme by the Tories to shaft them is a particular low. I mean it’s hilarious they think the Tories retain the level of competence necessary, but it’s dispiriting how many people seem willing to fall for this obvious nonsense.
Anyway I’ve struggled with where my vote will be going. I’m now 90% decided that for the first time in a quarter of a century of voting I will vote for my local Labour candidate.
For this election, I still remain broadly right of centre. If the Tories return to a place I can vote for them then I will, otherwise I will vote on a case by case basis. For instance if I lived in my mother’s seat I’d vote Tory this time.
Trump must be stopped means by democratic means. If it doesn't Biden could order Trump's immediate execution on grounds of national security under absurd power bestowed upon him as incumbent President.
If Mr Biden ordered Mr Trump executed as "official business", does that get Trump a Darwin Award?
If he issued the same order for Screaming Lord Gorsuch, Thomas, Alito, Coney-Barret, Kavanagh and Roberts yes.
Morning all, the final days of the campaign have been, if anything, worse than any of the previous days. The sight of high ranking Reform preying on the credulity of voters by alleging some sort of Machiavellian scheme by the Tories to shaft them is a particular low. I mean it’s hilarious they think the Tories retain the level of competence necessary, but it’s dispiriting how many people seem willing to fall for this obvious nonsense.
Anyway I’ve struggled with where my vote will be going. I’m now 90% decided that for the first time in a quarter of a century of voting I will vote for my local Labour candidate.
This is a good summary of why the Tories deserve to lose -
"Yet beyond all that, my biggest issue lies with the moral quagmire the party has mired itself in. Through the various scandals that have plagued the party over the last few years, the leadership has failed to respond with anything other than political posturing. The sins are almost too numerous to recall – lobbying scandals, sexual harassment, Partygate, and the tawdry gambling issue of the last few weeks.On each of these, it was not just the original error, but the way the party contorted itself away from any sense of contrition or repentance. Political and policy failings are one thing, people are entitled to get things wrong – but this repeated retreat from decency is something the party needs to be shaken out of."
But really it no longer matters much what happens on Thursday IMO. The recent Supreme Court judgment, its consequences for American democracy, a Trump win and what that means for Ukraine and European security are the "events" which will impact the next few years. Tough times ahead, I fear.
Certainly looks like Starmer will have to leave the domestic side of policy to Reeves and Fadden while he deals with very threatening international situation.
Time to rearm.
Which requires money being taken from someone.
Oldies, benefit recipients, public sector workers.
The choice isn't from which as it will be from all of them.
The choice is how much from each group.
Labour have been disingenuous over tax and spend. And yet the Tories would never have had such dilemmas. Tax cuts, increased defense budgets and Rwanda can all be funded from the magic money tree.
Comments
They imposed austerity in the aftermath of the great financial crash. They have presided over a deteriorating health service. They had to deal with Covid, Ukraine and inflation. They once looked doomed to election defeat by the principal opposition.
They now lead in the latest opinion poll.
The difference, I think, is all Truss.
One of the post-election problems for the Tories will be in convincing many of their core supporters that Truss was a failure. The stab-in-the-back myth is alive and well, and it's a large reason for the Farage resurgence.
YouGov MRP today 5pm
IPSOS-Mori tomorrow morning
As someone said yesterday Sunak played a bad hand badly. It's not all his fault, but he's made it even worse.
Focaldata mrp this PM
Survation phone poll before 9am on GMB
Aren't the Tory leadership votes cast by post, too?
And here we are...
As the Telegraph said yesterday, the Tory Party are the latest victims of Brexit
Thanks for the header.
This *is* an unusual time. A clean pun from @TSE - what happened?
“Tell Jabba I’ve got his money”
The Class 13 was used in only *one* location (Tinsley Yard, Sheffield). I wonder if the Greens like humping as much as the 13s did?
The Class 31 for Farage? I'd go with that, as long as you call it the Class 30 (they were initially built as Class 30, but the engines were so cr@p they were re-engined and made into Class 31. As which they were reasonably successful.)
Corbyn should be a Class 28. Beloved by some; an utter failure as a class, and soon made redundant.
Now, the real question is who is a Clayton Class 17; perhaps one of the worst 'modern' locos ever built. I'd got for Change UK? A short life, utter failure, and ended up stored unserviceable throughout the UK?
It's like the argument that the dinosaurs were heading for extinction before the asteroid came along. With the asteroid obliterating everything how can you tell what effect other factors might have had?
Trump must be stopped means by democratic means. If it doesn't Biden could order Trump's immediate execution on grounds of national security under absurd power bestowed upon him as incumbent President.
Similarly, thank you too Tories for privatising the water companies, buses and rail. It's heart-warming to see profits and long-term strategic investment sucked out of them too.
"Yet beyond all that, my biggest issue lies with the moral quagmire the party has mired itself in. Through the various scandals that have plagued the party over the last few years, the leadership has failed to respond with anything other than political posturing. The sins are almost too numerous to recall – lobbying scandals, sexual harassment, Partygate, and the tawdry gambling issue of the last few weeks. On each of these, it was not just the original error, but the way the party contorted itself away from any sense of contrition or repentance. Political and policy failings are one thing, people are entitled to get things wrong – but this repeated retreat from decency is something the party needs to be shaken out of."
But really it no longer matters much what happens on Thursday IMO. The recent Supreme Court judgment, its consequences for American democracy, a Trump win and what that means for Ukraine and European security are the "events" which will impact the next few years. Tough times ahead, I fear.
Once you started to see those promises being implemented it was clear that the Tory party cared more for themselves than the electorate..
The point at which they became doomed to lose beyond any hope of recovery was probably the by-election defeat after O-Patz was chucked out in December 2021. That's when the polls crossed over and it's been shit all the way down since then.
The generation of young people who became Conservative in the late Major/early Blair era were... unusual. A bit too obsessed with Europe. Too aware of the stories of late era Maggie. More interested in abstractions than running things.
And the career pipeline means that those unusual people have been the ones in charge for the last fourteen years.
If I'm right, it's Blair's fault really, for winning so one-sidedly. And the Conservative Party of 2040 or so will be a sight to behold.
I know you are high on the fact that Labour are about to win big and the evil Tories are going to be smashed so enjoy it for now but no need to be a twat.
🚨NEW Scottish Westminster VI for @TheScotsman
📈SNP lead Labour going into #GE2024
🎗️SNP 34% (=)
🌹LAB 31% (-3)
🌳CON 15% (+1)
🔶LD 9% (+2)
➡️Reform 6% (=)
🌍Green 3% (+1)
⬜️Other 2% (=)
1,083 Scottish adults, 28 June - 2 July
(change from 21-26 June)
People may disagree with you, but they are voting what they believe is best for the country
Truss merely tried to put out the fire using fire extinguishers she had filled with kerosene.
It severed a very, very important thread of trust with the electorate which was already badly frayed with Partygate.
I happen to think Partygate probably did for them in all actuality - it might not have led to outright defeat at this GE but I don’t think they’d have clung on to a majority. Of course, everything they did after that made it worse.
Only election where I have been stopped on the street several times by people wanting to tell you they are going to vote for you or asking for window posters. Normally people avoid you as if you had the plague.
Made an executive decision not to canvas the house that the fire brigade were putting out.
Anyway I’ve struggled with where my vote will be going. I’m now 90% decided that for the first time in a quarter of a century of voting I will vote for my local Labour candidate.
Time to rearm.
She’d have been automatically included on the list by a civil servant and no one in the government thought to take her off.
It’s incompetence not malice on this occasion
I mean, in truth there are several factors at play - particularly Partygate and the Truss/Kwarteng budget. But the Coalition of Chaos theme, with Sturgeon at its heart, is just so much stronger than, "If Starmer has a large majority, Michael Fabricant will be less able to scrutinise every sub-section of the Dangerous Cats Bill 2026 in the forensic manner for which he is justly famed".
Lets put it like this. If the SNP canvas returns were as good as this, Swinney would not be campaigning in seats where they hold a 15k majority and getting Flynn to beg Labour and LDs for votes...
So what we're likely to see early on Friday is a lot of upset people complaining about something they've every right to be aggrieved about, but isn't at all urgent to sort out. Followed by a promise from Starmer to conduct an inquiry and possibly some adjustment to electoral rules and/or Royal Mail's supervision in the following year.
And I suspect not even Farage will have the chutzpah to try justifying a Trump-like invasion of Parliament over the time it'll take to sort the mess out.
Vance says presidents must have immunity, though possibly not Biden
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/30/vance-president-immunity-biden-trump-00165948
Best independent vote share!
Will it be Jeremy Corbyn in Islington N? Or will it be Alex Easton in N Down? Or could it be anyone else?
We are a couple of hundred thousand well placed votes short of a hung parliament, so vote Tory
and
The Tories face a wipeout far worse than 1997, with echoes of 1931 (Mel Stride this morning), so vote Tory.
Is this just the burblings of panic or is there a cunning plan?
More generally, I get the impression that Farage's balloon has been slowly deflating this past couple of weeks. People are realising that one or two MPs are not going to make any difference.
We have had multiple canvas teams out for weeks. What is remarkable is the sheer number of people STILL undecided just days before polling. There is certainly the potential for significnt numbers of those to have voted Conservative by tomorrow night.
I still refuse to believe polling that shows more than half of the 2019 Conservative vote has departed. That is not consistent with my experience (at least until this week, when I have been hors de combat with Covid). A third I could believe. But not more than half.
Be wary of "everybody hates the Tories" narratives from social media. There is an army of Conservative voters who will keep their thoughts to themselves, other than to a Conservative door-knoocker.
To be clear: correlation is not causation!
Westminster voting intention
LAB: 40% (-1)
CON: 21% (+2)
REF: 16% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
GRN: 6% (+1)
via @techneUK, 28 Jun - 02 Jul
https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1808377633240936922?t=qn4zH_UhqMWsRNkPlri8_Q&s=19
Baxterising these figures produces the following seats forecast:
Labour .......... 467
Cons ............ 66
LibDems ............70
Reform ............. 6
Greens ............... 3
SNP .................. 15
Others ............... 5
N.I. .................. 18
Toral: ............... 650
Labour Maj: 284
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
Very generous and gave people the expectation that the Govt will always bail them out.
Will end in tears; eventual IMF bailout, I suspect.
Oldies, benefit recipients, public sector workers.
The choice isn't from which as it will be from all of them.
The choice is how much from each group.