Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
Most of my friends and family , unlike me, voted to leave. They are very pleased we are no more part of the EU which is what they wanted. Aside from sovereignty issues, one obvious benefit is that we are not sending money (it matters not what the actual sum is) to the EU. I was a pragmatic only Remainer and continue to be bewildered as to the extent of some Remainers' emotional attachment to the EU and wonder what is behind this.
They (and their opinions) were scorned. They were rejected - and they can't accept it.
Hell hath no fury like a lover Remainer scorned.
But while they're sitting plotting their revenge, searching their ex's social media keeping tabs on them, the rest of the world has calmly and quietly moved on.
The world has not moved on. The Tories are going to be delivered a crushing defeat as a direct result of Brexit.
Not just because of the destructive folly of the policy itself, but also because of the incoherent populism that it catalysed.
Tommoow night we will see that revenge of Remainers served cold.
Yep. The Conservative Party has been ruthlessly taken down.
How far back do you go? I last voted Cons in 2010 (can't remember 2015) but post-Brexit I switched to LD and now I am backing Labour as we seriously need the "Conservatives" out and most of their talentless loons ejected from the building.
Thanks, was trying to compile a list of direct 2019>2024 CON>LAB PB Switchers, so you are not one although you have switched indirectly I guess!
- Have we discussed much about how Survation modelling mortality since the 2019 vote might explain the disparities in its CON vote vs other pollsters? - Do other pollsters do this? - Given COVID disproportionately impacting older people, and older people disproportionately voting Tory, this could be particularly important vs previous election polls?
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?
Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.
What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.
The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
Why?
Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.
It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.
I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
The polling says this is a non-issue. Not even on the radar.
Keir Starmer and Ed Davey and everyone who wants to be elected are concentrating on actual issues, not your hobbyhorse.
Hmmm. In the interests of fairness I should point out that I used to regularly scorn OGH for using this argument. I believe his favourite phrae was that voters didn't give a monkey's about the EU as an issue. What seemed obvious to me is that voters are perfactly able to walk and chew gum at the same time. They can be concerned about myriad issues all at once and whilst they will have priorities that doesn't mean they won't still have very strong feelings about those issues that don't register highly on the list. So for example obvious cases are Social Care or the Environment. Neither appear on that top 10 list but most people have stroing feelings about them in one way or another.
So just as OGH was proved wrong in the idea that the EU was not an issue in 2010 - 2015, it is entirely possible that it is wrong today to claim that the EU is not still an issue with a sigificant number of people.
The problem with such forced choice questions is that, indeed, quite a lot of people have about 5 things they wanted sorted out.
A non-forced ranking, allowing equal or similar levels of importance would be much more valuable. As would testing for clustering - what are the groupings of issues?
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?
Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.
What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.
The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
Why?
Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.
It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.
I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
The polling says this is a non-issue. Not even on the radar.
Keir Starmer and Ed Davey and everyone who wants to be elected are concentrating on actual issues, not your hobbyhorse.
What you are of course failing to engage with is that several of those categories, and especially the economy, have been irreparably damaged by our withdrawal from the largest trading bloc.
The economic arguments, which were never properly aired during the 2016 campaign, will become persuasive once more.
It’s only a matter of time whether you like or not, or indeed whether you try to convince yourself or not.
Money talks.
Largest trading bloc?
The EU isn't even close to the world's largest trading bloc.
Indeed once the UK finishing accession to the CPTPP, we'll be in an even larger bloc than the EU and there's other, larger blocs out there too.
1. Labour to slightly stem the polling tide and land a (GB) vote share of above 40%, UK above 39%
Why: quite simply how few votes they need to actually gain to get there. A significant proportion of the work from a GB 32.9% last time out can be done by deaths, new voters, Tory abstentionism and the like, only 3-4% net need actually come from gaining switchers from other parties, and the people to do that are there imho.
2. That said Labour will lose votes to the left and will fail in at least half a dozen nominal defences:
Why: Hat tip to the poster who pointed me to the YouGov ethnic minority voter poll which had, iirc, Lab 43, Grn 26, Oth 10 for Pakistanis and Bangladeshis. That sounds tolerable for Labour, but still gives scope the quarter of those voters who live in the 23 constituencies where they account for 30%+ of the population and where the highest profile others are standing to account for a lot of that "Other" vote, and even then selectively. I think locally to me, Dewsbury & Batley will be amongst these and I think the winners will be low profile names - I don't necessarily think Galloway and Corbyn will figure, though Reform might.
3. Tory vote share will be under 25% (UK)
Why: They are too far below 25% in polling. This reverses an earlier prediction of mine saying they would be above it, though I retain my broad brush, Labour to win by 8-16%, which today's predictions just about allow.
4. We will be close to a situation where the identity of HM Opposition could be unclear for some time and may rely on alliance making, whether that is LD/APNI/Green or Con/DUP or even that Reform getting a look in down the line. There may be parliamentary shenanigans, and we may have different blocs providing LOTO during the course of the next parliament. It could be messy.
Why: Simply because I'm in this territory with predictions 1-3.
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz · 20h Watergate journalist @CarlBernstein reveals more incidents of Biden’s cognitive decline, as reported by people who love and admire the President:
The mere fact we are talking about Biden's feebleness shows how much more suited he is for the Presidency than Trump, who is clearly in an absolute mental tailspin of delusion, instability and paranoia that would make George III, Henry VI or Charles VI look well-adjusted and suitable, and yet gets a free pass because everybody's scared shitless of saying he"s completely mad.
But - in a rather better world, the choice would be neither of them.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?
Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.
What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.
The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
Why?
Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.
It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.
I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
The polling says this is a non-issue. Not even on the radar.
Keir Starmer and Ed Davey and everyone who wants to be elected are concentrating on actual issues, not your hobbyhorse.
What you are of course failing to engage with is that several of those categories, and especially the economy, have been irreparably damaged by our withdrawal from the largest trading bloc.
The economic arguments, which were never properly aired during the 2016 campaign, will become persuasive once more.
It’s only a matter of time whether you like or not, or indeed whether you try to convince yourself or not.
Money talks.
Except as I pointed out yesterday this is completely wrong. We have passed both Italy and France in GDP terms since Brexit and are expected to pass Japan in the next few yeasr as well. Exports to the EU have not been hit in the way predicted and overall our exports are up to both EU and non EU destinations.
The idea that Brexit damaged the economy is simply not backed up by the evidence. As Ed Conway was forced to reluctantly admit on Sky last week.
Sir Keir Starmer says he’s “not worried in the slightest” by Boris Johnson’s intervention last night. He described Johnson as “Exhibit A” of the argument that Labour has been making, that the Tories are chaotic and divided. “I’m only assuming that sometime about lunchtime today there’ll be a joint press conference with Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak on economic stability.”
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?
Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.
What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.
The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
Why?
Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
I don't think they have moved on.
The referendum should have put a line under the thorny issue of whether we should be part of the EU project or sit it out. It has put a line for me but obviously not for others.
It's conveniently forgotten that Con policy was to stay in the EU and if there is blame it should be towards the MPs who voted for the referendum in the first place - which the vast majority did across party (with the notable exception of the SNP).
It has put a line under it. We're out.
Neither Starmer, nor Davey, nor anyone else is proposing to reverse it.
ScottP, Beiberley and others may be banging on about it like Hiroo Onoda still fighting the war decades later, but the rest of the world has moved on.
Starmer will have other priorities to deal with, using our sovereignty, than taking us back into Europe.
It's going to be great. Rejoin starts in earnest on Friday.
Democracies can change their mind. On top of us bitter Remoaners, sector after sector now feels betrayed. Farmers feel betrayed. Fishermen feel betrayed. The young feel betrayed. Small businesses feel betrayed. Big business feels betrayed. Food is more expensive. Fresh food doesn't last as long. There is less choice on our shelves. There are medicine shortages. There are labour shortages. We are second class citizens on our own continent. NHS waiting lists haven't come down. Immigration hasn't come down. The only sectors where wages have risen is where we've engineered labour shortages. We don't have amazing trade deals with the rest of the world to replace the advantages of the Single Market. The German car manufacturers didn't rescue us. It wasn't the easiest trade deal in history. We aren't part of a continent-wide free trade zone. We haven't retained free movement. We didn't hold all the cards. We couldn't have our cake and eat it.
None of this was promised by the Lyin' Leave campaigns.
Polling shows strong majorities in every age group under 65 pretty much for the view that Brexit has been an error.
We'll be back in once the Boomers have gone. Schengen, the Euro, the whole shebang. Brexit will be a two decade aberration, a collective hiccup, an anomaly delivered on lies, fevered ideological wishful thinking and nostalgia.
Meanwhile back in the real world people have moved on, Starmer, Davey, everyone serious has moved on.
And I hate to tell you but only push polling prompting people says that Brexit is even anything anyone is thinking about.
Back in the real world, when it comes to polling people aren't even bringing up Europe or any related issues as a concern unprompted at all.
You are going to be amazed and impressed by how much of Brexit you can unwind with a 300 seat maj and who knows perhaps an anti Brexit opposition, all while pointing to the fact that nothing short of actual rejoining counts as actual rejoining.
I don't think that will happen, and certainly in his first term. It's too much of a hot potato, and there are more enticing battles for him to fight that *may* get larger rewards.
And the other thing is the demographics. Mass market Brexit was always a project of a specific generation; there is no sign at all of young voters accepting it.
If you have a hot potato and leave it, it becomes a cold potato. Almost certainly not under Starmer, but quite possibly under his successor.
In the meantime, saying "it's a lovely Brexit and we wouldn't dream of getting rid of it and not just because you would cut us out of your will" is a noble lie to keep the peace.
30-35% of young men are voting Reform. Do they want to rejoin the EU? Well yes maybe if it’s run by Meloni, Orban, Wilders and Le Pen
I sense your Remaineriness is about to be severely tested
I think remain/rejoin sentiment has been aligned closely with the centre/centre-left and a narrow sliver on the centre-right of British politics for a long long time, but if the EU is reshaped into a block that is further right, it isn't inconceivable that the right in the UK moves to a more pro-european position than it has occupied previously a la Meloni, Le Pen and so on.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?
Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.
What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.
The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
Why?
Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.
It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.
I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
The polling says this is a non-issue. Not even on the radar.
Keir Starmer and Ed Davey and everyone who wants to be elected are concentrating on actual issues, not your hobbyhorse.
Hmmm. In the interests of fairness I should point out that I used to regularly scorn OGH for using this argument. I believe his favourite phrae was that voters didn't give a monkey's about the EU as an issue. What seemed obvious to me is that voters are perfactly able to walk and chew gum at the same time. They can be concerned about myriad issues all at once and whilst they will have priorities that doesn't mean they won't still have very strong feelings about those issues that don't register highly on the list. So for example obvious cases are Social Care or the Environment. Neither appear on that top 10 list but most people have stroing feelings about them in one way or another.
So just as OGH was proved wrong in the idea that the EU was not an issue in 2010 - 2015, it is entirely possible that it is wrong today to claim that the EU is not still an issue with a sigificant number of people.
The attitude to Brexit is one of a number of reasons that I did not vote Labour, and obviously wouldn't consider either Tories or Reform for the same reason, but even I didn't mark Brexit/EU as a major issue when doing the Yougov poll.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
You really have no idea of the practical effects of Brexit Long queues at airports overseas for UK passport holders. Doesn't encourage business travel Difficulties and expense of importing foods from EU countries. Have you looked at the poor range of cheese in shops these days Pharmacies unable to access commonly used medicines, including those for serious medical conditions, because it's too complex to import pharmaceuticals from Europe. This really harms patients The list goes on, and it is difficult to think of a single positive.
Just one small thing: I do a lot of work with European colleagues (because of the nature of the subject) and this involves sending courtesy copies of publications to people or institutions who have provided indispensable images or information.
Pre-Brexit, just get the publisher to send it with a wee note to say courtesy of Carnyx and Auchtermuchty University, shove in postbox.
Now, snarled up, plus the recipients have to pay customs charges, flat rate processing fees, etc. etc. Ticking the gift box doesn't work as it is an 'official' thing, and M. le Douanier/Herr Zollbeamter can see that the book costs £££x (it says so on the cover when they open it up).
In one particularly extreme case I had to send a copy myself out of my own pocket for both book and postage.
Edit: not the endo f the worl;d, but it adds to the enshittification and general lapse.
I've been doing them for since before they were cool and I'm going to do a little rant about the public MrPs.
In terms of the Labour majority public MrPs vary here by about 200 seats.
One of the reasons for this is down to the distributions. The 11 MrPs (and 1 SRP) are shown below in terms of the spread of the Labour vote share across 631 constituencies.
The MoreInCommon MrP (in the bottom left) has a very wide distribution. Labour having very high and very low vote shares in lots of constituencies (an interdecile range [IDR] of 55%), while Survation (in the top left) are very narrow (an IDR of 33%), Labour getting a similar vote share in lots of constituencies.
This is important because the narrower the distributions, the fewer seats the Tories get.
"...in 2017 MrPs were better than in 2019 because voting behaviour in the 2016 referendum was an excellent predictor of how people switched between parties between 2015 and 2017 and that particular variable was well known for each constituency and relatively easy to build into the model. By contrast, the change in vote between 2017 and 2019 was not as easily predicted by the 2016 referendum and there wasn't any other variable that could just as easily plug the gap..."
Since 2019 we've also had Covid, which I assume changes people's voting behavior more.
This is the thing that worries me. Whether it's MrP or ordinary polls, they all have to be jiggled at the end by applying weights to account for differential turnout, and those weights are - to be polite - educated guesses. Combine that with brigading and people being paid to sit on panels leading to unbalanced panels, and my worries increase.
Given the difference between normal polls (Con 150-200ish) and MRPs (Con 50-150ish), we know that somebody is going to fail. Given that Sunak is campaigning in Con Maj+20K seats, they think they're going to come in at around the 100 seat mark (there are 98 Con seats with majorities of 20K or more). So I assume the MRPs are right in total, if not for each specific constituency.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?
Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.
What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.
The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
Why?
Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.
It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.
I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
So when do you expect a major party to bring back the death penalty?
This month. The Conservatives. New 1922 Committee rules. Won't apply to the rest of the country though.
Hey there's a thought. I wonder what the quorate rules are for the 1922 Committee? What happens when every MP in the party is part of the Shadow Cabinet?
LOL
You get a complete power shift in favour of refuseniks who decline shad cab positions in order to be kingmakers
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
Most of my friends and family , unlike me, voted to leave. They are very pleased we are no more part of the EU which is what they wanted. Aside from sovereignty issues, one obvious benefit is that we are not sending money (it matters not what the actual sum is) to the EU. I was a pragmatic only Remainer and continue to be bewildered as to the extent of some Remainers' emotional attachment to the EU and wonder what is behind this.
They (and their opinions) were scorned. They were rejected - and they can't accept it.
Hell hath no fury like a lover Remainer scorned.
But while they're sitting plotting their revenge, searching their ex's social media keeping tabs on them, the rest of the world has calmly and quietly moved on.
I honestly don't think it's that. I think it's a deep down dislike for their own country and they (perhaps unconsciously) support any way of diluting it. I think it's a disapproval of the nation state system over some sort of global utopia.
In intention, at any rate, the English intelligentsia are Europeanized. They take their cookery from Paris and their opinions from Moscow. In the general patriotism of the country they form a sort of island of dissident thought. England is perhaps the only great country whose intellectuals are ashamed of their own nationality. In left-wing circles it is always felt that there is something slightly disgraceful in being an Englishman and that it is a duty to snigger at every English institution, from horse racing to suet puddings. It is a strange fact, but it is unquestionably true that almost any English intellectual would feel more ashamed of standing to attention during ‘God Save the King’ than of stealing from a poor box.
It's quite niteresting to consider which parts of that quote have stood the test of time.
"They take their cookery from Paris" feels very last century.
Well, the very word "intellectual" is pretty old-fashioned - and opinions among Guardian readers now mirror more the loopier American universities than widely discredited Moscow. The bit of Orwell's quote, though, that still survives is "it is a duty to snigger at every English institution" - except the NHS, and that only when the government of the day can be accused of wrecking it. Which the Guardian-reading class has been doing more or less permanently since the NHS was founded, or at least since Bevin resigned from government in 1951 over charging for spectacles.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?
Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.
What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.
The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
Why?
Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.
It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.
I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
The polling says this is a non-issue. Not even on the radar.
Keir Starmer and Ed Davey and everyone who wants to be elected are concentrating on actual issues, not your hobbyhorse.
Indeed. This is the key point. The reason why none of the big parties are talking about Brexit is that the public is sick to the eye-teeth of the discussion. We left, we need to move on, not fight yesterday's war. Sir Keir's strategy has been spot on in this regard.
Can I just say how proud I am of my exwife for coming back from Nepal just to vote Reform as I instructed her
My best guess is that Farage will be an MP and probably the only Reform MP.
What then?
Will he be a noisy agitator, a thorn in everyone's side, or will he succumb and become another establishment figure enjoying the prestige and perks of the position; the comfy armchairs, drinks and repartee?
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
For many people, there is a steady stream of inconveniences resulting from Brexit.
In the case of my missus, the latest wheeze is labels, sticky labels that are used for labelling sample vials at her NHS lab. The ones they use are robust, waterproof, have the correct information and have proved themselves over time. They imported from the Netherlands, and the latest batch has been stuck in customs for the last month or so. In desperation, the Dutch supplier has been rerouting labels intended for other labs are are already in the UK, but this can only be a stopgap measure. If they don't get those labels soon, they simply won't be able to continue cancer testing. It's a completely absurd situation.
Does that not just pose the question of who ever thought it was sensible to buy labels from overseas? If that ever made economic sense then there’s something fundamentally wrong. Hence Brexit to force the issue. Or is label making a specialist art only found in the Netherlands?
It's got to be one hell of a specialist label if "simply won't be able to continue cancer testing" is anything other than the worst hyperbole I've seen since 2016.
It is a specialist label. That's how these things work! The labels have specific markings and are read by machines. You can't just stick a hand-written post-it on the vial.
Honestly, some people seem to have no idea how the modern world actually functions.
Edit: And that, by the way, is just one example. Every day seems to bring some other Brexit-related hassle for which some sort of workaround has to be found. And that all ends up costing money.
Do you think cancer testing would stop if the factory in the Netherlands burned down, or do you think a solution would be found?
Brexit: no worse than burning down factories! Hurrah!
Can I just say how proud I am of my exwife for coming back from Nepal just to vote Reform as I instructed her
My best guess is that Farage will be an MP and probably the only Reform MP.
What then?
Will he be a noisy agitator, a thorn in everyone's side, or will he succumb and become another establishment figure enjoying the prestige and perks of the position; the comfy armchairs, drinks and repartee?
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?
Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.
What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.
The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
Why?
Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.
It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.
I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
The polling says this is a non-issue. Not even on the radar.
Keir Starmer and Ed Davey and everyone who wants to be elected are concentrating on actual issues, not your hobbyhorse.
What you are of course failing to engage with is that several of those categories, and especially the economy, have been irreparably damaged by our withdrawal from the largest trading bloc.
The economic arguments, which were never properly aired during the 2016 campaign, will become persuasive once more.
It’s only a matter of time whether you like or not, or indeed whether you try to convince yourself or not.
Money talks.
Largest trading bloc?
The EU isn't even close to the world's largest trading bloc.
So yet another poll relegating the Tories to 3rd...
We don't even mention it now. "Tories, third? Meh (swipes to another site)". We quickly become accustomed to the unusual. How's things going in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East? We feeling good for the final stretch?
LAB 38% (-3) CON 18% (-) REF 17% (+3) LD 11% (-1) GRE 7% (+2) SNP 3% (+1) OTH 6% (-1)
F/w 26th June - 2nd July. Changes vs. 26th June 2024.
Nice to see that the good old phone surveys are still being rolled out in 2024. I wonder if they have to use a totally different methodology compared to online surveys.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
You really have no idea of the practical effects of Brexit Long queues at airports overseas for UK passport holders. Doesn't encourage business travel Difficulties and expense of importing foods from EU countries. Have you looked at the poor range of cheese in shops these days Pharmacies unable to access commonly used medicines, including those for serious medical conditions, because it's too complex to import pharmaceuticals from Europe. This really harms patients The list goes on, and it is difficult to think of a single positive.
Jeez, not this again. I have flown to Europe dozens of times to various airports since Brexit and am yet to find a single queue. Either I have been extraordinarily lucky or some of these Brexit disadvantages are being imagined.
A narrower choice of cheese - are you serious?
My experience also. Indeed I used to have to queue a lot more at Schipol when we were in the EU. Connections through Schipol have actually got easier over the last few years (though that may well be completely unconnected to Brexit of course).
I flew into and out of Schiphol at Easter and it was absolutely hellish on the way in. They had far too few border staff for the volume of flights at that time, though (1-2pm).
Yeah appalling at Oslo every time too. We’re no longer in the EU fast track and it’s abysmal.
I did remind all the Brits getting very stressed out about missing flights that if they hadn’t voted Brexit they wouldn’t be in the predicament.
But I also let them in front of me. Nice lass y’see.
I have flown into Oslo and Stavanger 4 times in the last year and never had to queue.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
You really have no idea of the practical effects of Brexit Long queues at airports overseas for UK passport holders. Doesn't encourage business travel Difficulties and expense of importing foods from EU countries. Have you looked at the poor range of cheese in shops these days Pharmacies unable to access commonly used medicines, including those for serious medical conditions, because it's too complex to import pharmaceuticals from Europe. This really harms patients The list goes on, and it is difficult to think of a single positive.
Long queues at airports overseas for UK passport holders. Doesn't encourage business travel
I'm skeptical about this - we hear of the days when there is a big hold up, but nothing most of the time. Reporting bias. Many of the business travellers on PB report few problems.
Difficulties and expense of importing foods from EU countries. Have you looked at the poor range of cheese in shops these days
Really? I see no difference in the shops I use, and frankly tend to eat the excellent British cheese available. Dorset Blue Vinny last night, for instance.
Pharmacies unable to access commonly used medicines, including those for serious medical conditions, because it's too complex to import pharmaceuticals from Europe. This really harms patients
There are issues with pharmacy manufacture currently partly from effects of covid. Its not just Brexit, although it is having some effect. I have seen reports of patients needing to switch medication but not patients going untreated.
The problem with all of this is that people who hate Brexit are keen to blame all ills on Brexit, just as those who hated being in the EU before 2016 blamed the EU for everything. Neither was or is correct.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?
Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.
What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.
The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
Why?
Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
I don't think they have moved on.
The referendum should have put a line under the thorny issue of whether we should be part of the EU project or sit it out. It has put a line for me but obviously not for others.
It's conveniently forgotten that Con policy was to stay in the EU and if there is blame it should be towards the MPs who voted for the referendum in the first place - which the vast majority did across party (with the notable exception of the SNP).
It has put a line under it. We're out.
Neither Starmer, nor Davey, nor anyone else is proposing to reverse it.
ScottP, Beiberley and others may be banging on about it like Hiroo Onoda still fighting the war decades later, but the rest of the world has moved on.
Starmer will have other priorities to deal with, using our sovereignty, than taking us back into Europe.
It's going to be great. Rejoin starts in earnest on Friday.
Democracies can change their mind. On top of us bitter Remoaners, sector after sector now feels betrayed. Farmers feel betrayed. Fishermen feel betrayed. The young feel betrayed. Small businesses feel betrayed. Big business feels betrayed. Food is more expensive. Fresh food doesn't last as long. There is less choice on our shelves. There are medicine shortages. There are labour shortages. We are second class citizens on our own continent. NHS waiting lists haven't come down. Immigration hasn't come down. The only sectors where wages have risen is where we've engineered labour shortages. We don't have amazing trade deals with the rest of the world to replace the advantages of the Single Market. The German car manufacturers didn't rescue us. It wasn't the easiest trade deal in history. We aren't part of a continent-wide free trade zone. We haven't retained free movement. We didn't hold all the cards. We couldn't have our cake and eat it.
None of this was promised by the Lyin' Leave campaigns.
Polling shows strong majorities in every age group under 65 pretty much for the view that Brexit has been an error.
We'll be back in once the Boomers have gone. Schengen, the Euro, the whole shebang. Brexit will be a two decade aberration, a collective hiccup, an anomaly delivered on lies, fevered ideological wishful thinking and nostalgia.
Meanwhile back in the real world people have moved on, Starmer, Davey, everyone serious has moved on.
And I hate to tell you but only push polling prompting people says that Brexit is even anything anyone is thinking about.
Back in the real world, when it comes to polling people aren't even bringing up Europe or any related issues as a concern unprompted at all.
You are going to be amazed and impressed by how much of Brexit you can unwind with a 300 seat maj and who knows perhaps an anti Brexit opposition, all while pointing to the fact that nothing short of actual rejoining counts as actual rejoining.
I don't think that will happen, and certainly in his first term. It's too much of a hot potato, and there are more enticing battles for him to fight that *may* get larger rewards.
And the other thing is the demographics. Mass market Brexit was always a project of a specific generation; there is no sign at all of young voters accepting it.
If you have a hot potato and leave it, it becomes a cold potato. Almost certainly not under Starmer, but quite possibly under his successor.
In the meantime, saying "it's a lovely Brexit and we wouldn't dream of getting rid of it and not just because you would cut us out of your will" is a noble lie to keep the peace.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?
Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.
What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.
The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
Why?
Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
I don't think they have moved on.
The referendum should have put a line under the thorny issue of whether we should be part of the EU project or sit it out. It has put a line for me but obviously not for others.
It's conveniently forgotten that Con policy was to stay in the EU and if there is blame it should be towards the MPs who voted for the referendum in the first place - which the vast majority did across party (with the notable exception of the SNP).
It has put a line under it. We're out.
Neither Starmer, nor Davey, nor anyone else is proposing to reverse it.
ScottP, Beiberley and others may be banging on about it like Hiroo Onoda still fighting the war decades later, but the rest of the world has moved on.
Starmer will have other priorities to deal with, using our sovereignty, than taking us back into Europe.
It's going to be great. Rejoin starts in earnest on Friday.
Democracies can change their mind. On top of us bitter Remoaners, sector after sector now feels betrayed. Farmers feel betrayed. Fishermen feel betrayed. The young feel betrayed. Small businesses feel betrayed. Big business feels betrayed. Food is more expensive. Fresh food doesn't last as long. There is less choice on our shelves. There are medicine shortages. There are labour shortages. We are second class citizens on our own continent. NHS waiting lists haven't come down. Immigration hasn't come down. The only sectors where wages have risen is where we've engineered labour shortages. We don't have amazing trade deals with the rest of the world to replace the advantages of the Single Market. The German car manufacturers didn't rescue us. It wasn't the easiest trade deal in history. We aren't part of a continent-wide free trade zone. We haven't retained free movement. We didn't hold all the cards. We couldn't have our cake and eat it.
None of this was promised by the Lyin' Leave campaigns.
Polling shows strong majorities in every age group under 65 pretty much for the view that Brexit has been an error.
We'll be back in once the Boomers have gone. Schengen, the Euro, the whole shebang. Brexit will be a two decade aberration, a collective hiccup, an anomaly delivered on lies, fevered ideological wishful thinking and nostalgia.
If you want Reform as biggest party and Fargle as PM in 2029, keep that up.
I am a 2019 - 2024 Con to Lab switcher. (Always Tory in GEs from 1974 onwards, including 1997). But lending my vote, pending a One Nation centre right party renewal, and giving my vote to the party (out of Lab/LD) that can beat the Tories in my patch.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
Most of my friends and family , unlike me, voted to leave. They are very pleased we are no more part of the EU which is what they wanted. Aside from sovereignty issues, one obvious benefit is that we are not sending money (it matters not what the actual sum is) to the EU. I was a pragmatic only Remainer and continue to be bewildered as to the extent of some Remainers' emotional attachment to the EU and wonder what is behind this.
They (and their opinions) were scorned. They were rejected - and they can't accept it.
Hell hath no fury like a lover Remainer scorned.
But while they're sitting plotting their revenge, searching their ex's social media keeping tabs on them, the rest of the world has calmly and quietly moved on.
The world has not moved on. The Tories are going to be delivered a crushing defeat as a direct result of Brexit.
Not just because of the destructive folly of the policy itself, but also because of the incoherent populism that it catalysed.
Tommoow night we will see that revenge of Remainers served cold.
The populism is all over the western world. If anything we have a milder variant than many. And revenge is not generally a wise motivation in politics. Be careful what you wish for, Dr.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
But it was Brexit that delivered the party into the clutches of Johnson.
Only because of Labour's opposition to Theresa May's deal.
Not just labour - also the Tory Europhiles. Basically anyone who didn't like the outcome of the referendum and sought to overturn it.
All of us Brexit sceptics are guilty, but then if Mrs May had put together a less "Brexit is Brexit" strategy perhaps we would have had something to hold onto whilst Brexit was "done".
How about holding on to a respect for democracy and acknowledging that we had voted to Leave?
Bygones now but you could have done that.
Parliament was sovereign. I supported the sovereign Parliament of 2017 to 2019.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?
Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.
What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.
The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
Why?
Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.
It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.
I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
The polling says this is a non-issue. Not even on the radar.
Keir Starmer and Ed Davey and everyone who wants to be elected are concentrating on actual issues, not your hobbyhorse.
What you are of course failing to engage with is that several of those categories, and especially the economy, have been irreparably damaged by our withdrawal from the largest trading bloc.
The economic arguments, which were never properly aired during the 2016 campaign, will become persuasive once more.
It’s only a matter of time whether you like or not, or indeed whether you try to convince yourself or not.
Money talks.
Largest trading bloc?
The EU isn't even close to the world's largest trading bloc.
Indeed once the UK finishing accession to the CPTPP, we'll be in an even larger bloc than the EU and there's other, larger blocs out there too.
1. Labour to slightly stem the polling tide and land a (GB) vote share of above 40%, UK above 39%
Why: quite simply how few votes they need to actually gain to get there. A significant proportion of the work from a GB 32.9% last time out can be done by deaths, new voters, Tory abstentionism and the like, only 3-4% net need actually come from gaining switchers from other parties, and the people to do that are there imho.
2. That said Labour will lose votes to the left and will fail in at least half a dozen nominal defences:
Why: Hat tip to the poster who pointed me to the YouGov ethnic minority voter poll which had, iirc, Lab 43, Grn 26, Oth 10 for Pakistanis and Bangladeshis. That sounds tolerable for Labour, but still gives scope the quarter of those voters who live in the 23 constituencies where they account for 30%+ of the population and where the highest profile others are standing to account for a lot of that "Other" vote, and even then selectively. I think locally to me, Dewsbury & Batley will be amongst these and I think the winners will be low profile names - I don't necessarily think Galloway and Corbyn will figure, though Reform might.
3. Tory vote share will be under 25% (UK)
Why: They are too far below 25% in polling. This reverses an earlier prediction of mine saying they would be above it, though I retain my broad brush, Labour to win by 8-16%, which today's predictions just about allow.
4. We will be close to a situation where the identity of HM Opposition could be unclear for some time and may rely on alliance making, whether that is LD/APNI/Green or Con/DUP or even that Reform getting a look in down the line. There may be parliamentary shenanigans, and we may have different blocs providing LOTO during the course of the next parliament. It could be messy.
Why: Simply because I'm in this territory with predictions 1-3.
I wonder if there is value in Labour>500 seats at 22 now? Or LD as most seats without Labour at 6.6?
Personally I'm not quite there with those - both BFX.
LAB 38% (-3) CON 18% (-) REF 17% (+3) LD 11% (-1) GRE 7% (+2) SNP 3% (+1) OTH 6% (-1)
F/w 26th June - 2nd July. Changes vs. 26th June 2024.
If thats the result it would likely be tories less than 59 seats. But generally if you look back to 1997 the tories final poll is 3 to 4% above their lowest share.
That's triggered me to go and have a look at the final polls versus the actual shares (not exactly what you're covering here, though):
1997 Final poll average from each company: Con 30.8, Lab 46.8, LD 16.4 Result: Con 30.7, Lab 43.2, LD 16.8
2001 Final poll average from each company: Con 31.0, Lab 45.2, LD 17.4 Result: Con 31.7, Lab 40.7, LD 18.3
2005 Final poll average from each company: Con 32.3, Lab 38.0, LD 22.0 Result: Con 32.3, Lab 36.2, LD 22.7
2010 Final poll average from each company: Con 35.6, Lab 27.6, LD 27.4 Result: Con 36.9, Lab 29.7, LD 23.6
2015 Final poll average from each company: Con 33.7, Lab 33.1, LD 8.8, UKIP 12.7 Result: Con 37.8, Lab 31.2, LD 8.1, UKIP 12.9
2017 Final poll average from each company: Con 43.2, Lab 36.3, LD 7.7, UKIP 4.4 Result [GB only]: Con 43.5, Lab 41.0, LD 7.6, UKIP 1.9
2019 Final poll average from each company: Con 43.2, Lab 33.5, LD 11.9, Brexit 3.5 Result [GB only]: Con 44.7, Lab 33.0, LD 11.8, Brexit 4.0
[apologies for the switch to GB only towards the end, not precisely comparing apples to apples]
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?
Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.
What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.
The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
Why?
Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.
It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.
I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
So when do you expect a major party to bring back the death penalty?
This month. The Conservatives. New 1922 Committee rules. Won't apply to the rest of the country though.
Hey there's a thought. I wonder what the quorate rules are for the 1922 Committee? What happens when every MP in the party is part of the Shadow Cabinet?
Some senior Tories will, no doubt, see the necessity of changing internal party rules in this situation as a bit of a silver lining, as it'll give them plenty of cover to fix the no-confidence & leadership election process to their liking as well.
Via @Survation 📞, 26 Jun - 2 Jul. Changes w/ 21-25 Jun.
I think it will continue to election day itself.
Blimey.
But are 7% of voters really going to be going Green tomorrow? The SNP mini-surge looks real now, across a few pollsters and the Scottish poll.
And I doubt reform will get 17% either.
I'm not sure why people doubt Reform getting a decent vote share. Ukip got nearly 13% of the UK vote share in 2015 when the Tories got nearly 37%. Given the collapsing Tory vote to the low 20s even teens, a reform vote of 17-20% seems perfectly plausible.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?
Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.
What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.
The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
Why?
Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.
It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.
I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
The polling says this is a non-issue. Not even on the radar.
Keir Starmer and Ed Davey and everyone who wants to be elected are concentrating on actual issues, not your hobbyhorse.
What you are of course failing to engage with is that several of those categories, and especially the economy, have been irreparably damaged by our withdrawal from the largest trading bloc.
The economic arguments, which were never properly aired during the 2016 campaign, will become persuasive once more.
It’s only a matter of time whether you like or not, or indeed whether you try to convince yourself or not.
Money talks.
Largest trading bloc?
The EU isn't even close to the world's largest trading bloc.
Indeed once the UK finishing accession to the CPTPP, we'll be in an even larger bloc than the EU and there's other, larger blocs out there too.
It's the closest large trading block to the UK.
Which would have mattered if this was the 1950s where manufacturing and geography were the overwhelming majority of trade.
We live in a global, connected, 21st century services based information age nowadays. Where I can speak to someone in Singapore as easily as someone in Manchester.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?
Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.
What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.
The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
Why?
Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.
It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.
I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
The polling says this is a non-issue. Not even on the radar.
Keir Starmer and Ed Davey and everyone who wants to be elected are concentrating on actual issues, not your hobbyhorse.
What you are of course failing to engage with is that several of those categories, and especially the economy, have been irreparably damaged by our withdrawal from the largest trading bloc.
The economic arguments, which were never properly aired during the 2016 campaign, will become persuasive once more.
It’s only a matter of time whether you like or not, or indeed whether you try to convince yourself or not.
Money talks.
Largest trading bloc?
The EU isn't even close to the world's largest trading bloc.
Indeed once the UK finishing accession to the CPTPP, we'll be in an even larger bloc than the EU and there's other, larger blocs out there too.
It's the closest large trading block to the UK.
The UK-EU FTA could be considered a trading bloc in its own right. In many parts of the world it would be.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
You really have no idea of the practical effects of Brexit Long queues at airports overseas for UK passport holders. Doesn't encourage business travel Difficulties and expense of importing foods from EU countries. Have you looked at the poor range of cheese in shops these days Pharmacies unable to access commonly used medicines, including those for serious medical conditions, because it's too complex to import pharmaceuticals from Europe. This really harms patients The list goes on, and it is difficult to think of a single positive.
Jeez, not this again. I have flown to Europe dozens of times to various airports since Brexit and am yet to find a single queue. Either I have been extraordinarily lucky or some of these Brexit disadvantages are being imagined.
A narrower choice of cheese - are you serious?
My experience also. Indeed I used to have to queue a lot more at Schipol when we were in the EU. Connections through Schipol have actually got easier over the last few years (though that may well be completely unconnected to Brexit of course).
I flew into and out of Schiphol at Easter and it was absolutely hellish on the way in. They had far too few border staff for the volume of flights at that time, though (1-2pm).
Yeah appalling at Oslo every time too. We’re no longer in the EU fast track and it’s abysmal.
I did remind all the Brits getting very stressed out about missing flights that if they hadn’t voted Brexit they wouldn’t be in the predicament.
But I also let them in front of me. Nice lass y’see.
I have flown into Oslo and Stavanger 4 times in the last year and never had to queue.
I flew into Oslo last week. Inbound was OK, we were the only fight at that time so it was only about 15 minutes, and once all the EU had gone through they let us use their booths too
But leaving - chaos. We arrived 2 hours ahead of our flight and would have missed it if it hadn't been delayed anyway. About 80 minutes in the queue.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?
Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.
What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.
The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
Why?
Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
I don't think they have moved on.
The referendum should have put a line under the thorny issue of whether we should be part of the EU project or sit it out. It has put a line for me but obviously not for others.
It's conveniently forgotten that Con policy was to stay in the EU and if there is blame it should be towards the MPs who voted for the referendum in the first place - which the vast majority did across party (with the notable exception of the SNP).
It has put a line under it. We're out.
Neither Starmer, nor Davey, nor anyone else is proposing to reverse it.
ScottP, Beiberley and others may be banging on about it like Hiroo Onoda still fighting the war decades later, but the rest of the world has moved on.
Starmer will have other priorities to deal with, using our sovereignty, than taking us back into Europe.
Except that it simply becomes more and more apparent that Brexit was sold on a lie. That many of the promises were bogus.
It destroyed trust and the legacy of that betrayed trust is still poisoning our politics. Tomorrow may be the start of the redress but it has been a long time coming.
What lie?
Vote Leave made key pledges as to what Brexit would mean, and it seems to me that all have been met.
1: That we would take back control of our laws - Done. Don't like a law? You can now vote for a different party to change it.
2: The we would take back control of our money - Done. Our money is no longer going to Brussels.
3: That we would take back control of our borders - Done. Migration now happens under our own domestically set laws. Don't like it? Vote for a party to change it to one you do like.
4: That we would be able to sign our own trade deals - Done We can now sign trade deals, and have done.
What exactly was a lie?
Great for a guffaw as ever Bart 1. Rwanda, titter 2. We have no money now, cry 3. Migration has tripled , great control 4. Trade deals where we give them £20 and they give us a £10 back , smashing
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
You really have no idea of the practical effects of Brexit Long queues at airports overseas for UK passport holders. Doesn't encourage business travel Difficulties and expense of importing foods from EU countries. Have you looked at the poor range of cheese in shops these days Pharmacies unable to access commonly used medicines, including those for serious medical conditions, because it's too complex to import pharmaceuticals from Europe. This really harms patients The list goes on, and it is difficult to think of a single positive.
Jeez, not this again. I have flown to Europe dozens of times to various airports since Brexit and am yet to find a single queue. Either I have been extraordinarily lucky or some of these Brexit disadvantages are being imagined.
A narrower choice of cheese - are you serious?
My experience also. Indeed I used to have to queue a lot more at Schipol when we were in the EU. Connections through Schipol have actually got easier over the last few years (though that may well be completely unconnected to Brexit of course).
I flew into and out of Schiphol at Easter and it was absolutely hellish on the way in. They had far too few border staff for the volume of flights at that time, though (1-2pm).
Yeah appalling at Oslo every time too. We’re no longer in the EU fast track and it’s abysmal.
I did remind all the Brits getting very stressed out about missing flights that if they hadn’t voted Brexit they wouldn’t be in the predicament.
But I also let them in front of me. Nice lass y’see.
I have flown into Oslo and Stavanger 4 times in the last year and never had to queue.
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz · 20h Watergate journalist @CarlBernstein reveals more incidents of Biden’s cognitive decline, as reported by people who love and admire the President:
The mere fact we are talking about Biden's feebleness shows how much more suited he is for the Presidency than Trump, who is clearly in an absolute mental tailspin of delusion, instability and paranoia that would make George III, Henry VI or Charles VI look well-adjusted and suitable, and yet gets a free pass because everybody's scared shitless of saying he"s completely mad.
But - in a rather better world, the choice would be neither of them.
On what planet do you think anyone has been shy of criticising Trump's mental state or anything else about him. Utterly absurd.
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz · 20h Watergate journalist @CarlBernstein reveals more incidents of Biden’s cognitive decline, as reported by people who love and admire the President:
The mere fact we are talking about Biden's feebleness shows how much more suited he is for the Presidency than Trump, who is clearly in an absolute mental tailspin of delusion, instability and paranoia that would make George III, Henry VI or Charles VI look well-adjusted and suitable, and yet gets a free pass because everybody's scared shitless of saying he"s completely mad.
But - in a rather better world, the choice would be neither of them.
On what planet do you think anyone has been shy of criticising Trump's mental state or anything else about him. Utterly absurd.
This one, duh.
He's so far off the wall he makes the corpse of Henry VI look sane, and he's repeatedly lied about it as well, but it's Biden that takes the heat for stumbling over some of his words.
Comments
As @Dura_Ace memorably put it a while back:
"I think some tories mis-underestimate SKS. For the past two and half years he's been gradually feeding the tory party into a woodchipper. "
- Have we discussed much about how Survation modelling mortality since the 2019 vote might explain the disparities in its CON vote vs other pollsters?
- Do other pollsters do this?
- Given COVID disproportionately impacting older people, and older people disproportionately voting Tory, this could be particularly important vs previous election polls?
A non-forced ranking, allowing equal or similar levels of importance would be much more valuable. As would testing for clustering - what are the groupings of issues?
The EU isn't even close to the world's largest trading bloc.
Indeed once the UK finishing accession to the CPTPP, we'll be in an even larger bloc than the EU and there's other, larger blocs out there too.
1. Labour to slightly stem the polling tide and land a (GB) vote share of above 40%, UK above 39%
Why: quite simply how few votes they need to actually gain to get there. A significant proportion of the work from a GB 32.9% last time out can be done by deaths, new voters, Tory abstentionism and the like, only 3-4% net need actually come from gaining switchers from other parties, and the people to do that are there imho.
2. That said Labour will lose votes to the left and will fail in at least half a dozen nominal defences:
Why: Hat tip to the poster who pointed me to the YouGov ethnic minority voter poll which had, iirc, Lab 43, Grn 26, Oth 10 for Pakistanis and Bangladeshis. That sounds tolerable for Labour, but still gives scope the quarter of those voters who live in the 23 constituencies where they account for 30%+ of the population and where the highest profile others are standing to account for a lot of that "Other" vote, and even then selectively. I think locally to me, Dewsbury & Batley will be amongst these and I think the winners will be low profile names - I don't necessarily think Galloway and Corbyn will figure, though Reform might.
3. Tory vote share will be under 25% (UK)
Why: They are too far below 25% in polling. This reverses an earlier prediction of mine saying they would be above it, though I retain my broad brush, Labour to win by 8-16%, which today's predictions just about allow.
4. We will be close to a situation where the identity of HM Opposition could be unclear for some time and may rely on alliance making, whether that is LD/APNI/Green or Con/DUP or even that Reform getting a look in down the line. There may be parliamentary shenanigans, and we may have different blocs providing LOTO during the course of the next parliament. It could be messy.
Why: Simply because I'm in this territory with predictions 1-3.
Very straightforward, a little less whimsical than usual, and everso slightly pointed.
Available here for recirculation.
https://x.com/davewalker/status/1808434563053396238
The mere fact we are talking about Biden's feebleness shows how much more suited he is for the Presidency than Trump, who is clearly in an absolute mental tailspin of delusion, instability and paranoia that would make George III, Henry VI or Charles VI look well-adjusted and suitable, and yet gets a free pass because everybody's scared shitless of saying he"s completely mad.
But - in a rather better world, the choice would be neither of them.
NI-GEL
NI-GEL
Can I just say how proud I am of my exwife for coming back from Nepal just to vote Reform as I instructed her
The idea that Brexit damaged the economy is simply not backed up by the evidence. As Ed Conway was forced to reluctantly admit on Sky last week.
@ToryJim
@BartholomewRoberts
@Leon (?)
@Simon_Peach
Any more for any more?
She would occasionally comment on here in her late teens. Sorry I mean THE late teens
FFS.
And then they will spend five years whining over their oatmilk lattes about how boomers get all the public goods.
Keiran Pedley
@keiranpedley
Key analysis from @CameronGarrett_ yesterday on turnout.
https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1808424950979555758
NEW THREAD
Pre-Brexit, just get the publisher to send it with a wee note to say courtesy of Carnyx and Auchtermuchty University, shove in postbox.
Now, snarled up, plus the recipients have to pay customs charges, flat rate processing fees, etc. etc. Ticking the gift box doesn't work as it is an 'official' thing, and M. le Douanier/Herr Zollbeamter can see that the book costs £££x (it says so on the cover when they open it up).
In one particularly extreme case I had to send a copy myself out of my own pocket for both book and postage.
Edit: not the endo f the worl;d, but it adds to the enshittification and general lapse.
"...in 2017 MrPs were better than in 2019 because voting behaviour in the 2016 referendum was an excellent predictor of how people switched between parties between 2015 and 2017 and that particular variable was well known for each constituency and relatively easy to build into the model. By contrast, the change in vote between 2017 and 2019 was not as easily predicted by the 2016 referendum and there wasn't any other variable that could just as easily plug the gap..."
Since 2019 we've also had Covid, which I assume changes people's voting behavior more.
This is the thing that worries me. Whether it's MrP or ordinary polls, they all have to be jiggled at the end by applying weights to account for differential turnout, and those weights are - to be polite - educated guesses. Combine that with brigading and people being paid to sit on panels leading to unbalanced panels, and my worries increase.
Given the difference between normal polls (Con 150-200ish) and MRPs (Con 50-150ish), we know that somebody is going to fail. Given that Sunak is campaigning in Con Maj+20K seats, they think they're going to come in at around the 100 seat mark (there are 98 Con seats with majorities of 20K or more). So I assume the MRPs are right in total, if not for each specific constituency.
You get a complete power shift in favour of refuseniks who decline shad cab positions in order to be kingmakers
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4752714-kamala-harris-stronger-joe-biden-democrats/
He loves all the stuff that Reform candidates come out with, right down to the Putin man-love.
What then?
Will he be a noisy agitator, a thorn in everyone's side, or will he succumb and become another establishment figure enjoying the prestige and perks of the position; the comfy armchairs, drinks and repartee?
I'm skeptical about this - we hear of the days when there is a big hold up, but nothing most of the time. Reporting bias. Many of the business travellers on PB report few problems.
Difficulties and expense of importing foods from EU countries. Have you looked at the poor range of cheese in shops these days
Really? I see no difference in the shops I use, and frankly tend to eat the excellent British cheese available. Dorset Blue Vinny last night, for instance.
Pharmacies unable to access commonly used medicines, including those for serious medical conditions, because it's too complex to import pharmaceuticals from Europe. This really harms patients
There are issues with pharmacy manufacture currently partly from effects of covid. Its not just Brexit, although it is having some effect. I have seen reports of patients needing to switch medication but not patients going untreated.
The problem with all of this is that people who hate Brexit are keen to blame all ills on Brexit, just as those who hated being in the EU before 2016 blamed the EU for everything. Neither was or is correct.
It remains the easiest, cheapest, simplest way for us to solve the problems we created.
Reasons? Read this:
https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v46/n12/tom-crewe/carnival-of-self-harm
Personally I'm not quite there with those - both BFX.
1997
Final poll average from each company: Con 30.8, Lab 46.8, LD 16.4
Result: Con 30.7, Lab 43.2, LD 16.8
2001
Final poll average from each company: Con 31.0, Lab 45.2, LD 17.4
Result: Con 31.7, Lab 40.7, LD 18.3
2005
Final poll average from each company: Con 32.3, Lab 38.0, LD 22.0
Result: Con 32.3, Lab 36.2, LD 22.7
2010
Final poll average from each company: Con 35.6, Lab 27.6, LD 27.4
Result: Con 36.9, Lab 29.7, LD 23.6
2015
Final poll average from each company: Con 33.7, Lab 33.1, LD 8.8, UKIP 12.7
Result: Con 37.8, Lab 31.2, LD 8.1, UKIP 12.9
2017
Final poll average from each company: Con 43.2, Lab 36.3, LD 7.7, UKIP 4.4
Result [GB only]: Con 43.5, Lab 41.0, LD 7.6, UKIP 1.9
2019
Final poll average from each company: Con 43.2, Lab 33.5, LD 11.9, Brexit 3.5
Result [GB only]: Con 44.7, Lab 33.0, LD 11.8, Brexit 4.0
[apologies for the switch to GB only towards the end, not precisely comparing apples to apples]
We live in a global, connected, 21st century services based information age nowadays. Where I can speak to someone in Singapore as easily as someone in Manchester.
Move on.
@ToryJim
@BartholomewRoberts
@Leon (?)
@Simon_Peach
@Pro_Rata
Has @Leon actually confirmed this or is he still farting around?
(@Contrarian where art thou?)
But leaving - chaos. We arrived 2 hours ahead of our flight and would have missed it if it hadn't been delayed anyway. About 80 minutes in the queue.
1. Rwanda, titter
2. We have no money now, cry
3. Migration has tripled , great control
4. Trade deals where we give them £20 and they give us a £10 back , smashing
I'm not sure if I've used my image quota yet, so just a link.
https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1807710527583359016
He's so far off the wall he makes the corpse of Henry VI look sane, and he's repeatedly lied about it as well, but it's Biden that takes the heat for stumbling over some of his words.