What can never be know AFAIK is how many got lost in the post back to the council.
Anyone who wants to check can nip down the Town Hall and ask to inspect the record of which postal votes came back and which didn't. And the political parties can buy a copy of the complete list, if they want to do ther own checking of members and supporters.
I did not know that. Does that mean that, for example, I could check if my father-in-law voted? Seem a bit intrusive and counter to secret ballots.
The act of voting is a matter of public record. Who you vote for is between you and your conscience
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
I agree although leadership elections are usually interesting. I am 62. Tomorrow may be the last day of Conservative government I see. I hope that the idiots voting for Reform tomorrow are happy with that. 10-15 years of Labour government will see a lot of them out.
I do like you David but you really don't get it do you?
For a great many, perhaps even the vast majority of people voting Reform, the last 14 years - in particlar the last 5 years - mean that the Tories are no longer an alternative. They are detested and if Reform did not exist those voters would still not be voting Tory.
They have made two decisions.
The first is that hell would need to freeze over before they wouild vote for the current iteration of the Tory party.
The second is then a question of where they put that vote. Indeed you should probably be grateful so many of them are giving it to Reform rather than jumping direct to Labour. You should be grateful to people like me who are choosing to spoil their ballot rather than vote Labour.
Your party is so utterly discredited that you are lucky there are other parties than Labour to vote for because if not you may well be extinct.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
I agree although leadership elections are usually interesting. I am 62. Tomorrow may be the last day of Conservative government I see. I hope that the idiots voting for Reform tomorrow are happy with that. 10-15 years of Labour government will see a lot of them out.
Most of the reform people will be dead and buried by the time Labour have gone.
The real problem with Reform isn't the sustainability of the current Farage limited company masquerading as a political party. It's whether what we're seeing is the beginning in this country of the anti-democracy myth that's been growing in the US and (till now, just the rest of) Western Europe - exemplified by the proportion of the Yoof population supporting autocracies in polls.
Simple demographics won't deal with this trend. We need positive leadership from all sides of the responsible parties (especially including the heirs to Britain's Tories) in demonstrating to every group the benefits of a politically accountable real democracy.
Love that Braverman has declared defeat and launched her campaign for the leadership *before* the election.
I'm very surprised we've not seen more of this, they've been more restrained than I expected.
Steve "Hard man -Brexit" Baker has too.
Survation give Baker a 99% chance of losing.
He needs some time off to get back to nature. Backpacking round India and Brazil would be good for him. Hanging out with the locals and forgetting about politics.
The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts Westminster voting intention
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
It does seem startling that 21% gets the Tories only 66 seats while 11% gets the LDs 70.
In 2010 LDs got 23% and only 57 seats, so I can believe the Tory figure. It's the LDs 70 for 11% that looks a big stretch; their vote will have to be super-efficient for that.
The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts Westminster voting intention
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
The real disaster there for the Tories would be the LDs in second place by seat count, therefore being the official Opposition with all the funding and Parliamentary time that comes from that position.
Ed will jump off the Shard if his party comes second!
The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts Westminster voting intention
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
The polling industry getting it right? This can't happen. Too many projections with too much difference. By the laws of logic they can't all be right, or even nearly right. Unless you depend on this for more than fun, this matters not.
There is no possibility at all that the interest will go away in trying to predict big elections. And, for the gambler, perfect information = no opportunity to beat the market with inspired research/guesswork.
Polling will be correct in outline anyway: Labour will do well and Tories badly.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
That has already happened. With respect to the Sunak / @Casino_Royale tantrum about tax, nobody at all is listening. Nobody. The party has lost all credibility to be able to attack anybody on tax and spend. The reason why the polls haven't moved is because the Tory campaign has been gaff after gaff after gaff, and has now reduced itself to pleeeeeeaase don't let Keir Starmer fuck and then eat your puppy.
Cease to be relevant in 48 hours? Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
I'm saying this to be deviled apricot a bit... but honourable mention here for Sturgeon's scandal and resignation. The SNP has been an irrelevance in this campaign, but Sturgeon's SNP were incredibly useful to the Tories as bogeymen for English voters. The message that a weak and vacillating Labour leader would have rings run round him by a sharp, tough Sturgeon in her pomp really played well for them. But the SNP are now seen as waning, and Swinney isn't going to be running rings around anyone. The Tories lost a real trump card there.
I mean, in truth there are several factors at play - particularly Partygate and the Truss/Kwarteng budget. But the Coalition of Chaos theme, with Sturgeon at its heart, is just so much stronger than, "If Starmer has a large majority, Michael Fabricant will be less able to scrutinise every sub-section of the Dangerous Cats Bill 2026 in the forensic manner for which he is justly famed".
My own vote goes to the Furlough scheme.
Very generous and gave people the expectation that the Govt will always bail them out.
Will end in tears; eventual IMF bailout, I suspect.
Not to do so while enforcing lockdowns would have been utterly disastrous for the economy.
If you pinned it on lockdowns that would make more sense imo.
The Class 13 was used in only *one* location (Tinsley Yard, Sheffield). I wonder if the Greens like humping as much as the 13s did?
The Class 31 for Farage? I'd go with that, as long as you call it the Class 30 (they were initially built as Class 30, but the engines were so cr@p they were re-engined and made into Class 31. As which they were reasonably successful.)
Corbyn should be a Class 28. Beloved by some; an utter failure as a class, and soon made redundant.
Now, the real question is who is a Clayton Class 17; perhaps one of the worst 'modern' locos ever built. I'd got for Change UK? A short life, utter failure, and ended up stored unserviceable throughout the UK?
It's missing Henry the Green Engine, bricked up in his tunnel. Can he be the Gallowazzock?
And the Peppercorn Class Tornado, rescuing passengers when the system fails.
The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts Westminster voting intention
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
It does seem startling that 21% gets the Tories only 66 seats while 11% gets the LDs 70.
In 2010 LDs got 23% and only 57 seats, so I can believe the Tory figure. It's the LDs 70 for 11% that looks a big stretch; their vote will have to be super-efficient for that.
EC’s algorithm this time round needs to be taken with an intravenous saline drip.
The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts Westminster voting intention
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
This is however a very different election to model than those that came before it. The swings are huge.
I remain of the view that EC is overcooking the LDs and Reform particularly. I don’t discount it entirely, but as I have said before I am expecting Tory seat totals to be 20-30 better than anything EC is throwing up.
The first vulture has started picking at the corpse of the Conservative Party:
“Thursday’s vote is now all about forming a strong enough opposition,” she writes.
“One needs to read the writing on the wall: it’s over, and we need to prepare for the reality and frustration of opposition.”
Braverman blames the situation on a fracture within the Conservative Party resulting from a rise in Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
It is notable that Labour’s vote share has not markedly increased in recent weeks, but our vote is evaporating from both Left and Right.
The critics will cite Boris (Johnson), Liz (Truss), Rwanda, and, I can immodestly predict, even me as all being fatal to our ‘centrist’ vote.
The reality is rather different: we are haemorrhaging votes largely to Reform. Why? Because we failed to cut immigration or tax or deal with the net zero and woke policies we have presided over for 14 years.
We may lose hundreds of excellent MPs because of our abject inability to have foreseen this inevitability months ago: that our failure to unite the Right would destroy us.”
Braverman says the Tories need “a searingly honest post-match analysis”, “because the fight for the soul of the Conservative Party will determine whether we allow Starmer a clear run at destroying our country for good or having a chance to redeem it in due course.
“Indeed, it will decide whether our party continues to exist at all.”
The problem is that this election may in fact be only the first episode in a longer term realignment. The Tories will get nowhere if they can only wave fictitious apocalypses in the air. The failure of the Tories cancels out any criticisms they make. That failure is not because Net Zero or "Woke" (whatever that means) or Rwanda should have been dropped, it is because every time they made these their talking points, or the basis for policies like Rwanda, then most people just heard silly extremist slogans and bankrupt policies. If the Tory answer to all of this is a move to some kind of dilute Faragism, then the Tories will never get back into power.
Whatever the result now, I see a huge opportunity to come for the Liberal Democrats. Starmer looks set to get a good two thirds of the new House of Commons on barely 40% of the vote. This discredits FPTP completely, and yet Starmer remains committed to it. Very soon his party will start to enact several very unpopular policies and each time they do, Ed Davey can beat up Labours distorted mandate.
An early example is VAT on school fees which is going to be unexpectedly unpopular not merely amongst parents of independent school kids, but amongst the aspirational, and amongst the parents of kids at good state schools which will now have to deal with higher rolls. Special schools are not exempted, and I am sure the press will find some photogenic dyslexic kids to pose for sad faced pictures. The mood music will not be pretty.
The discipline of the new government, with Sue Gray as chief Commissar will be formidable and the laser focus will be an immediate relief from the recent Tory shambles. The incoming administration is one of the best prepared in my life time, and the economy, though still fundamentally misfiring will nevertheless show clear signs of improvement. Not, however, for small businesses, which have been under the cosh since the GFC and especially Breexit. Good profits in the City, but not for SMEs. Stories of arrogant administrators and silly red tape will abound. The Mandelson love of the rich will start to make people see that Labour is not on the side of the little guys. Still the drip drip of how legitimate Labour´s democratic mandate will come in the background.
The centralising dirigiste soul of Labour will eventually get boring, and with so many idle hands, the devil will make work on the Labour back benches. Expulsions and Maoist discipline won`t altogether still the Greek chorus of back chat. The NHS will improve, but not by much, we are beyond the time where mere tinkering will solve that. Protests will grow in time.
Starmer has been a very lucky general. In the hour of his greatest victory, a triumph unlikely ever to be matched, there is a small voice that is saying... "Remember, you too must die".
The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts Westminster voting intention
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
The real disaster there for the Tories would be the LDs in second place by seat count, therefore being the official Opposition with all the funding and Parliamentary time that comes from that position.
Ed will jump off the Shard if his party comes second!
This is a good summary of why the Tories deserve to lose -
"Yet beyond all that, my biggest issue lies with the moral quagmire the party has mired itself in. Through the various scandals that have plagued the party over the last few years, the leadership has failed to respond with anything other than political posturing. The sins are almost too numerous to recall – lobbying scandals, sexual harassment, Partygate, and the tawdry gambling issue of the last few weeks.On each of these, it was not just the original error, but the way the party contorted itself away from any sense of contrition or repentance. Political and policy failings are one thing, people are entitled to get things wrong – but this repeated retreat from decency is something the party needs to be shaken out of."
But really it no longer matters much what happens on Thursday IMO. The recent Supreme Court judgment, its consequences for American democracy, a Trump win and what that means for Ukraine and European security are the "events" which will impact the next few years. Tough times ahead, I fear.
Certainly looks like Starmer will have to leave the domestic side of policy to Reeves and Fadden while he deals with very threatening international situation.
Time to rearm.
Which requires money being taken from someone.
Oldies, benefit recipients, public sector workers.
The choice isn't from which as it will be from all of them.
The choice is how much from each group.
Labour have been disingenuous over tax and spend. And yet the Tories would never have had such dilemmas. Tax cuts, increased defense budgets and Rwanda can all be funded from the magic money tree.
I felt McFadden this morning was dying to say: "Of course we are lying but the other lot are lying worse, vote for change" but just stopped himself from this transparent truth. (He's done well as shadow minister for Radio 4 overall. Very safe pair of hands).
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
I agree although leadership elections are usually interesting. I am 62. Tomorrow may be the last day of Conservative government I see. I hope that the idiots voting for Reform tomorrow are happy with that. 10-15 years of Labour government will see a lot of them out.
Most of the reform people will be dead and buried by the time Labour have gone.
The real problem with Reform isn't the sustainability of the current Farage limited company masquerading as a political party. It's whether what we're seeing is the beginning in this country of the anti-democracy myth that's been growing in the US and (till now, just the rest of) Western Europe - exemplified by the proportion of the Yoof population supporting autocracies in polls.
Simple demographics won't deal with this trend. We need positive leadership from all sides of the responsible parties (especially including the heirs to Britain's Tories) in demonstrating to every group the benefits of a politically accountable real democracy.
Absolutely. That is the way to stop parties like Reform gathering a foothold and building on it.
Bit of a trend in Scotland. The other notable thing is a small recovery in the Lib Dem vote in a couple of Scottish polls.
My gut feel, and it may be proved completely wrong tomorrow, is that Swinney has done just enough to steady the SNP ship. That there's been nothing new about SNP finances for a while helps too.
The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts Westminster voting intention
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
It does seem startling that 21% gets the Tories only 66 seats while 11% gets the LDs 70.
In 2010 LDs got 23% and only 57 seats, so I can believe the Tory figure. It's the LDs 70 for 11% that looks a big stretch; their vote will have to be super-efficient for that.
EC’s algorithm this time round needs to be taken with an intravenous saline drip.
The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts Westminster voting intention
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
The real disaster there for the Tories would be the LDs in second place by seat count, therefore being the official Opposition with all the funding and Parliamentary time that comes from that position.
Ed will jump off the Shard if his party comes second!
Is he doing the Three Peaks Challenge today?
He is walking the pennine way this weekend and the coast to coast straight after that.
The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts Westminster voting intention
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
The real disaster there for the Tories would be the LDs in second place by seat count, therefore being the official Opposition with all the funding and Parliamentary time that comes from that position.
Ed will jump off the Shard if his party comes second!
Is he doing the Three Peaks Challenge today?
He could take a helicopter round the three peaks hanging from it.
This is a good summary of why the Tories deserve to lose -
"Yet beyond all that, my biggest issue lies with the moral quagmire the party has mired itself in. Through the various scandals that have plagued the party over the last few years, the leadership has failed to respond with anything other than political posturing. The sins are almost too numerous to recall – lobbying scandals, sexual harassment, Partygate, and the tawdry gambling issue of the last few weeks.On each of these, it was not just the original error, but the way the party contorted itself away from any sense of contrition or repentance. Political and policy failings are one thing, people are entitled to get things wrong – but this repeated retreat from decency is something the party needs to be shaken out of."
But really it no longer matters much what happens on Thursday IMO. The recent Supreme Court judgment, its consequences for American democracy, a Trump win and what that means for Ukraine and European security are the "events" which will impact the next few years. Tough times ahead, I fear.
Certainly looks like Starmer will have to leave the domestic side of policy to Reeves and Fadden while he deals with very threatening international situation.
Time to rearm.
Which requires money being taken from someone.
Oldies, benefit recipients, public sector workers.
The choice isn't from which as it will be from all of them.
The choice is how much from each group.
Labour have been disingenuous over tax and spend. And yet the Tories would never have had such dilemmas. Tax cuts, increased defense budgets and Rwanda can all be funded from the magic money tree.
So what, its Starmer and Reeves who will have to make the decisions.
And take the unpopularity which comes with it.
Hopefully the extra tax raised will be spent competently.
But the slogans are already being written:
Keir Starmer the kid starver. Starmer and Reeves the pension thieves.
And in five years time perhaps a return of that old favourite.
The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts Westminster voting intention
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
The real disaster there for the Tories would be the LDs in second place by seat count, therefore being the official Opposition with all the funding and Parliamentary time that comes from that position.
Ed will jump off the Shard if his party comes second!
Is he doing the Three Peaks Challenge today?
He is walking the pennine way this weekend and the coast to coast straight after that.
The returning officer has rejected your 'X' on account of it taking too long to complete.
This is a good summary of why the Tories deserve to lose -
"Yet beyond all that, my biggest issue lies with the moral quagmire the party has mired itself in. Through the various scandals that have plagued the party over the last few years, the leadership has failed to respond with anything other than political posturing. The sins are almost too numerous to recall – lobbying scandals, sexual harassment, Partygate, and the tawdry gambling issue of the last few weeks.On each of these, it was not just the original error, but the way the party contorted itself away from any sense of contrition or repentance. Political and policy failings are one thing, people are entitled to get things wrong – but this repeated retreat from decency is something the party needs to be shaken out of."
But really it no longer matters much what happens on Thursday IMO. The recent Supreme Court judgment, its consequences for American democracy, a Trump win and what that means for Ukraine and European security are the "events" which will impact the next few years. Tough times ahead, I fear.
Certainly looks like Starmer will have to leave the domestic side of policy to Reeves and Fadden while he deals with very threatening international situation.
Time to rearm.
Which requires money being taken from someone.
Oldies, benefit recipients, public sector workers.
The choice isn't from which as it will be from all of them.
The choice is how much from each group.
Labour have been disingenuous over tax and spend. And yet the Tories would never have had such dilemmas. Tax cuts, increased defense budgets and Rwanda can all be funded from the magic money tree.
So what, its Starmer and Reeves who will have to make the decisions.
And take the unpopularity which comes with it.
Hopefully the extra tax raised will be spent competently.
But the slogans are already being written:
Keir Starmer the kid starver. Starmer and Reeves the pension thieves.
And in five years time perhaps a return of that old favourite.
Labour isn't working.
They will need the extra money to pay Trump for defense money or he will have a trade war with us. Why not. A new venture for him.
The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts Westminster voting intention
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
It does seem startling that 21% gets the Tories only 66 seats while 11% gets the LDs 70.
In 2010 LDs got 23% and only 57 seats, so I can believe the Tory figure. It's the LDs 70 for 11% that looks a big stretch; their vote will have to be super-efficient for that.
In my bit of the Blue Wall, LD candidates who started this election assuming they'd be gallant losers are now pinching themselves as canvass returns and chats in pubs tell them there's a real prospect of becoming MPs. No idea how many of them really believe that - but, on today's evidence, the Tories will lose every single seat in the county and LD "voting efficiency" has been transformed.
There are many reasons the LDs may not sweep up as many local seats as they'd like (such as the unprecedented ferocity of last-minute Labour and Tory campaigning against the LDs, and huge lack of clarity about who'll actually cast a vote). But results in 2010 (or 2019) really aren't among them.
The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts Westminster voting intention
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
The real disaster there for the Tories would be the LDs in second place by seat count, therefore being the official Opposition with all the funding and Parliamentary time that comes from that position.
Ed will jump off the Shard if his party comes second!
Is he doing the Three Peaks Challenge today?
He is walking the pennine way this weekend and the coast to coast straight after that.
The returning officer has rejected your 'X' on account of it taking too long to complete.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
That has already happened. With respect to the Sunak / @Casino_Royale tantrum about tax, nobody at all is listening. Nobody. The party has lost all credibility to be able to attack anybody on tax and spend. The reason why the polls haven't moved is because the Tory campaign has been gaff after gaff after gaff, and has now reduced itself to pleeeeeeaase don't let Keir Starmer fuck and then eat your puppy.
Cease to be relevant in 48 hours? Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
I'm saying this to be deviled apricot a bit... but honourable mention here for Sturgeon's scandal and resignation. The SNP has been an irrelevance in this campaign, but Sturgeon's SNP were incredibly useful to the Tories as bogeymen for English voters. The message that a weak and vacillating Labour leader would have rings run round him by a sharp, tough Sturgeon in her pomp really played well for them. But the SNP are now seen as waning, and Swinney isn't going to be running rings around anyone. The Tories lost a real trump card there.
I mean, in truth there are several factors at play - particularly Partygate and the Truss/Kwarteng budget. But the Coalition of Chaos theme, with Sturgeon at its heart, is just so much stronger than, "If Starmer has a large majority, Michael Fabricant will be less able to scrutinise every sub-section of the Dangerous Cats Bill 2026 in the forensic manner for which he is justly famed".
My own vote goes to the Furlough scheme.
Very generous and gave people the expectation that the Govt will always bail them out.
Will end in tears; eventual IMF bailout, I suspect.
Not to do so while enforcing lockdowns would have been utterly disastrous for the economy.
If you pinned it on lockdowns that would make more sense imo.
Surely the Conservatives are unpopular because: - Things are a lot more expensive than 5 years ago - People can't get a doctor's appointment - Immigration has been at record highs, despite promises to reduce it
Of course, on top of that there's the air of incompetence, sleaze, dishonesty and the sense that their signature policy - leaving the EU - hasn't been a great success.
This is a good summary of why the Tories deserve to lose -
"Yet beyond all that, my biggest issue lies with the moral quagmire the party has mired itself in. Through the various scandals that have plagued the party over the last few years, the leadership has failed to respond with anything other than political posturing. The sins are almost too numerous to recall – lobbying scandals, sexual harassment, Partygate, and the tawdry gambling issue of the last few weeks.On each of these, it was not just the original error, but the way the party contorted itself away from any sense of contrition or repentance. Political and policy failings are one thing, people are entitled to get things wrong – but this repeated retreat from decency is something the party needs to be shaken out of."
But really it no longer matters much what happens on Thursday IMO. The recent Supreme Court judgment, its consequences for American democracy, a Trump win and what that means for Ukraine and European security are the "events" which will impact the next few years. Tough times ahead, I fear.
Certainly looks like Starmer will have to leave the domestic side of policy to Reeves and Fadden while he deals with very threatening international situation.
Time to rearm.
Which requires money being taken from someone.
Oldies, benefit recipients, public sector workers.
The choice isn't from which as it will be from all of them.
The choice is how much from each group.
Labour have been disingenuous over tax and spend. And yet the Tories would never have had such dilemmas. Tax cuts, increased defense budgets and Rwanda can all be funded from the magic money tree.
So what, its Starmer and Reeves who will have to make the decisions.
And take the unpopularity which comes with it.
Hopefully the extra tax raised will be spent competently.
But the slogans are already being written:
Keir Starmer the kid starver. Starmer and Reeves the pension thieves.
And in five years time perhaps a return of that old favourite.
Labour isn't working.
It won’t matter - I expect the Tory party are going to have a few years in the wilderness fighting amongst themselves as to how to get back into power
This is a good summary of why the Tories deserve to lose -
"Yet beyond all that, my biggest issue lies with the moral quagmire the party has mired itself in. Through the various scandals that have plagued the party over the last few years, the leadership has failed to respond with anything other than political posturing. The sins are almost too numerous to recall – lobbying scandals, sexual harassment, Partygate, and the tawdry gambling issue of the last few weeks.On each of these, it was not just the original error, but the way the party contorted itself away from any sense of contrition or repentance. Political and policy failings are one thing, people are entitled to get things wrong – but this repeated retreat from decency is something the party needs to be shaken out of."
But really it no longer matters much what happens on Thursday IMO. The recent Supreme Court judgment, its consequences for American democracy, a Trump win and what that means for Ukraine and European security are the "events" which will impact the next few years. Tough times ahead, I fear.
Certainly looks like Starmer will have to leave the domestic side of policy to Reeves and Fadden while he deals with very threatening international situation.
Time to rearm.
Which requires money being taken from someone.
Oldies, benefit recipients, public sector workers.
The choice isn't from which as it will be from all of them.
The choice is how much from each group.
Labour have been disingenuous over tax and spend. And yet the Tories would never have had such dilemmas. Tax cuts, increased defense budgets and Rwanda can all be funded from the magic money tree.
I felt McFadden this morning was dying to say: "Of course we are lying but the other lot are lying worse, vote for change" but just stopped himself from this transparent truth. (He's done well as shadow minister for Radio 4 overall. Very safe pair of hands).
Mishal put McFadden in a tricky position this morning with a very good point about how Labour intend to deal with small boats if Le Pen’s mob are in control.
She pointed out that they might actually be quite keen for immigrants to leave PdC on boats rather than stay in France and also played a clip of a former French politician from earlier in the programme pointing out that Barella has absolutely no desire or need to negotiate a returns or cooperation agreement with the UK on migrants.
McFadden’s answer was “we will set up Border Command”.
Mishal also asked him if Labour had been putting out any feelers to RN as Lammy has been meeting with Macron’s people and it appears not.
So I can see Labour being tested hard on small boats from the start and if they can’t get agreements with a new French government a lot of people might start pointing out that a nasty tough deterrent such as Rwanda might be the only option.
The first vulture has started picking at the corpse of the Conservative Party:
“Thursday’s vote is now all about forming a strong enough opposition,” she writes.
“One needs to read the writing on the wall: it’s over, and we need to prepare for the reality and frustration of opposition.”
Braverman blames the situation on a fracture within the Conservative Party resulting from a rise in Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
It is notable that Labour’s vote share has not markedly increased in recent weeks, but our vote is evaporating from both Left and Right.
The critics will cite Boris (Johnson), Liz (Truss), Rwanda, and, I can immodestly predict, even me as all being fatal to our ‘centrist’ vote.
The reality is rather different: we are haemorrhaging votes largely to Reform. Why? Because we failed to cut immigration or tax or deal with the net zero and woke policies we have presided over for 14 years.
We may lose hundreds of excellent MPs because of our abject inability to have foreseen this inevitability months ago: that our failure to unite the Right would destroy us.”
Braverman says the Tories need “a searingly honest post-match analysis”, “because the fight for the soul of the Conservative Party will determine whether we allow Starmer a clear run at destroying our country for good or having a chance to redeem it in due course.
“Indeed, it will decide whether our party continues to exist at all.”
The problem is that this election may in fact be only the first episode in a longer term realignment. The Tories will get nowhere if they can only wave fictitious apocalypses in the air. The failure of the Tories cancels out any criticisms they make. That failure is not because Net Zero or "Woke" (whatever that means) or Rwanda should have been dropped, it is because every time they made these their talking points, or the basis for policies like Rwanda, then most people just heard silly extremist slogans and bankrupt policies. If the Tory answer to all of this is a move to some kind of dilute Faragism, then the Tories will never get back into power.
Whatever the result now, I see a huge opportunity to come for the Liberal Democrats. Starmer looks set to get a good two thirds of the new House of Commons on barely 40% of the vote. This discredits FPTP completely, and yet Starmer remains committed to it. Very soon his party will start to enact several very unpopular policies and each time they do, Ed Davey can beat up Labours distorted mandate.
An early example is VAT on school fees which is going to be unexpectedly unpopular not merely amongst parents of independent school kids, but amongst the aspirational, and amongst the parents of kids at good state schools which will now have to deal with higher rolls. Special schools are not exempted, and I am sure the press will find some photogenic dyslexic kids to pose for sad faced pictures. The mood music will not be pretty.
The discipline of the new government, with Sue Gray as chief Commissar will be formidable and the laser focus will be an immediate relief from the recent Tory shambles. The incoming administration is one of the best prepared in my life time, and the economy, though still fundamentally misfiring will nevertheless show clear signs of improvement. Not, however, for small businesses, which have been under the cosh since the GFC and especially Breexit. Good profits in the City, but not for SMEs. Stories of arrogant administrators and silly red tape will abound. The Mandelson love of the rich will start to make people see that Labour is not on the side of the little guys. Still the drip drip of how legitimate Labour´s democratic mandate will come in the background.
The centralising dirigiste soul of Labour will eventually get boring, and with so many idle hands, the devil will make work on the Labour back benches. Expulsions and Maoist discipline won`t altogether still the Greek chorus of back chat. The NHS will improve, but not by much, we are beyond the time where mere tinkering will solve that. Protests will grow in time.
Starmer has been a very lucky general. In the hour of his greatest victory, a triumph unlikely ever to be matched, there is a small voice that is saying... "Remember, you too must die".
It may not be the Tories that end Labour´s reign.
You forgot the bit about the 'straitjacket of the past.'
(Also, although special schools are not exempted de jure the exclusion of EHCPs means they would be exempted de facto. It's a stupid policy for all sorts of reasons but let's keep to facts.)
The first vulture has started picking at the corpse of the Conservative Party:
“Thursday’s vote is now all about forming a strong enough opposition,” she writes.
“One needs to read the writing on the wall: it’s over, and we need to prepare for the reality and frustration of opposition.”
Braverman blames the situation on a fracture within the Conservative Party resulting from a rise in Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
It is notable that Labour’s vote share has not markedly increased in recent weeks, but our vote is evaporating from both Left and Right.
The critics will cite Boris (Johnson), Liz (Truss), Rwanda, and, I can immodestly predict, even me as all being fatal to our ‘centrist’ vote.
The reality is rather different: we are haemorrhaging votes largely to Reform. Why? Because we failed to cut immigration or tax or deal with the net zero and woke policies we have presided over for 14 years.
We may lose hundreds of excellent MPs because of our abject inability to have foreseen this inevitability months ago: that our failure to unite the Right would destroy us.”
Braverman says the Tories need “a searingly honest post-match analysis”, “because the fight for the soul of the Conservative Party will determine whether we allow Starmer a clear run at destroying our country for good or having a chance to redeem it in due course.
“Indeed, it will decide whether our party continues to exist at all.”
The problem is that this election may in fact be only the first episode in a longer term realignment. The Tories will get nowhere if they can only wave fictitious apocalypses in the air. The failure of the Tories cancels out any criticisms they make. That failure is not because Net Zero or "Woke" (whatever that means) or Rwanda should have been dropped, it is because every time they made these their talking points, or the basis for policies like Rwanda, then most people just heard silly extremist slogans and bankrupt policies. If the Tory answer to all of this is a move to some kind of dilute Faragism, then the Tories will never get back into power.
Whatever the result now, I see a huge opportunity to come for the Liberal Democrats. Starmer looks set to get a good two thirds of the new House of Commons on barely 40% of the vote. This discredits FPTP completely, and yet Starmer remains committed to it. Very soon his party will start to enact several very unpopular policies and each time they do, Ed Davey can beat up Labours distorted mandate.
An early example is VAT on school fees which is going to be unexpectedly unpopular not merely amongst parents of independent school kids, but amongst the aspirational, and amongst the parents of kids at good state schools which will now have to deal with higher rolls. Special schools are not exempted, and I am sure the press will find some photogenic dyslexic kids to pose for sad faced pictures. The mood music will not be pretty.
The discipline of the new government, with Sue Gray as chief Commissar will be formidable and the laser focus will be an immediate relief from the recent Tory shambles. The incoming administration is one of the best prepared in my life time, and the economy, though still fundamentally misfiring will nevertheless show clear signs of improvement. Not, however, for small businesses, which have been under the cosh since the GFC and especially Breexit. Good profits in the City, but not for SMEs. Stories of arrogant administrators and silly red tape will abound. The Mandelson love of the rich will start to make people see that Labour is not on the side of the little guys. Still the drip drip of how legitimate Labour´s democratic mandate will come in the background.
The centralising dirigiste soul of Labour will eventually get boring, and with so many idle hands, the devil will make work on the Labour back benches. Expulsions and Maoist discipline won`t altogether still the Greek chorus of back chat. The NHS will improve, but not by much, we are beyond the time where mere tinkering will solve that. Protests will grow in time.
Starmer has been a very lucky general. In the hour of his greatest victory, a triumph unlikely ever to be matched, there is a small voice that is saying... "Remember, you too must die".
It may not be the Tories that end Labour´s reign.
This is of course correct. All regimes eventually pass but the timescales it happens on can be long drawn out.
Take the incumbent Tories for example. In 2016 they proposed an alternative of exiting the European Union, correctly identifying that it would be a mistake. People voted for it anyway and those that allowed it to happen failed to implement it properly. In any normal organisation those people would be out on their ear but it took 8 years of further endemic incompetence for them to finally meet their come-uppance.
I don't actually expect Labour to reach the same dizzy heights of incompetence.
A friend went to the local hustings this week. She says that the Workers Party GB candiate announced at the meeting that she will be standing as an Independent, even though her election literature has a picture of George Galloway on it. It seems she has fallen out with gorgeous George.
The first vulture has started picking at the corpse of the Conservative Party:
“Thursday’s vote is now all about forming a strong enough opposition,” she writes.
“One needs to read the writing on the wall: it’s over, and we need to prepare for the reality and frustration of opposition.”
Braverman blames the situation on a fracture within the Conservative Party resulting from a rise in Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
It is notable that Labour’s vote share has not markedly increased in recent weeks, but our vote is evaporating from both Left and Right.
The critics will cite Boris (Johnson), Liz (Truss), Rwanda, and, I can immodestly predict, even me as all being fatal to our ‘centrist’ vote.
The reality is rather different: we are haemorrhaging votes largely to Reform. Why? Because we failed to cut immigration or tax or deal with the net zero and woke policies we have presided over for 14 years.
We may lose hundreds of excellent MPs because of our abject inability to have foreseen this inevitability months ago: that our failure to unite the Right would destroy us.”
Braverman says the Tories need “a searingly honest post-match analysis”, “because the fight for the soul of the Conservative Party will determine whether we allow Starmer a clear run at destroying our country for good or having a chance to redeem it in due course.
“Indeed, it will decide whether our party continues to exist at all.”
The problem is that this election may in fact be only the first episode in a longer term realignment. The Tories will get nowhere if they can only wave fictitious apocalypses in the air. The failure of the Tories cancels out any criticisms they make. That failure is not because Net Zero or "Woke" (whatever that means) or Rwanda should have been dropped, it is because every time they made these their talking points, or the basis for policies like Rwanda, then most people just heard silly extremist slogans and bankrupt policies. If the Tory answer to all of this is a move to some kind of dilute Faragism, then the Tories will never get back into power.
Whatever the result now, I see a huge opportunity to come for the Liberal Democrats. Starmer looks set to get a good two thirds of the new House of Commons on barely 40% of the vote. This discredits FPTP completely, and yet Starmer remains committed to it. Very soon his party will start to enact several very unpopular policies and each time they do, Ed Davey can beat up Labours distorted mandate.
An early example is VAT on school fees which is going to be unexpectedly unpopular not merely amongst parents of independent school kids, but amongst the aspirational, and amongst the parents of kids at good state schools which will now have to deal with higher rolls. Special schools are not exempted, and I am sure the press will find some photogenic dyslexic kids to pose for sad faced pictures. The mood music will not be pretty.
The discipline of the new government, with Sue Gray as chief Commissar will be formidable and the laser focus will be an immediate relief from the recent Tory shambles. The incoming administration is one of the best prepared in my life time, and the economy, though still fundamentally misfiring will nevertheless show clear signs of improvement. Not, however, for small businesses, which have been under the cosh since the GFC and especially Breexit. Good profits in the City, but not for SMEs. Stories of arrogant administrators and silly red tape will abound. The Mandelson love of the rich will start to make people see that Labour is not on the side of the little guys. Still the drip drip of how legitimate Labour´s democratic mandate will come in the background.
The centralising dirigiste soul of Labour will eventually get boring, and with so many idle hands, the devil will make work on the Labour back benches. Expulsions and Maoist discipline won`t altogether still the Greek chorus of back chat. The NHS will improve, but not by much, we are beyond the time where mere tinkering will solve that. Protests will grow in time.
Starmer has been a very lucky general. In the hour of his greatest victory, a triumph unlikely ever to be matched, there is a small voice that is saying... "Remember, you too must die".
It may not be the Tories that end Labour´s reign.
You forgot the bit about the 'straitjacket of the past.'
(Also, although special schools are not exempted de jure the exclusion of EHCPs means they would be exempted de facto. It's a stupid policy for all sorts of reasons but let's keep to facts.)
Fair point, but its the broad brush that I am trying to highlight
This is a good summary of why the Tories deserve to lose -
"Yet beyond all that, my biggest issue lies with the moral quagmire the party has mired itself in. Through the various scandals that have plagued the party over the last few years, the leadership has failed to respond with anything other than political posturing. The sins are almost too numerous to recall – lobbying scandals, sexual harassment, Partygate, and the tawdry gambling issue of the last few weeks.On each of these, it was not just the original error, but the way the party contorted itself away from any sense of contrition or repentance. Political and policy failings are one thing, people are entitled to get things wrong – but this repeated retreat from decency is something the party needs to be shaken out of."
But really it no longer matters much what happens on Thursday IMO. The recent Supreme Court judgment, its consequences for American democracy, a Trump win and what that means for Ukraine and European security are the "events" which will impact the next few years. Tough times ahead, I fear.
Certainly looks like Starmer will have to leave the domestic side of policy to Reeves and Fadden while he deals with very threatening international situation.
Time to rearm.
Which requires money being taken from someone.
Oldies, benefit recipients, public sector workers.
The choice isn't from which as it will be from all of them.
The choice is how much from each group.
Labour have been disingenuous over tax and spend. And yet the Tories would never have had such dilemmas. Tax cuts, increased defense budgets and Rwanda can all be funded from the magic money tree.
So what, its Starmer and Reeves who will have to make the decisions.
And take the unpopularity which comes with it.
Hopefully the extra tax raised will be spent competently.
But the slogans are already being written:
Keir Starmer the kid starver. Starmer and Reeves the pension thieves.
And in five years time perhaps a return of that old favourite.
Labour isn't working.
It won’t matter - I expect the Tory party are going to have a few years in the wilderness fighting amongst themselves as to how to get back into power
They will.
But only political obsessives like us will notice.
Whereas most people will notice, and often experience, what Labour does in government.
The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts Westminster voting intention
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
The real disaster there for the Tories would be the LDs in second place by seat count, therefore being the official Opposition with all the funding and Parliamentary time that comes from that position.
Ed will jump off the Shard if his party comes second!
Is he doing the Three Peaks Challenge today?
He could take a helicopter round the three peaks hanging from it.
The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts Westminster voting intention
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
It does seem startling that 21% gets the Tories only 66 seats while 11% gets the LDs 70.
In 2010 LDs got 23% and only 57 seats, so I can believe the Tory figure. It's the LDs 70 for 11% that looks a big stretch; their vote will have to be super-efficient for that.
I doubt it too - although long LD seats is my biggest GE spread bet so I hope they do have a big night.
It shows Labour 420 seats, Conservative 123, Liberal Democrat 57, SNP 16, Reform UK 8, Plaid Cymru 4, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 192.
The forecast uses the current UK-Elect default forecasting settings, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of constituency opinion polls, by-elections since 2019, Brexit referendum leave/remain percentages, incumbency, and tactical voting among many other factors. This forecast combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. The forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240703ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
As always in this election, small adjustments to the polling data or methodology can make surprisingly big changes to the result, although never enough to either affect the overall result (a Labour majority of around 190 to 250 seats), or to match some of the more extreme MRP seat projections.
This is a good summary of why the Tories deserve to lose -
"Yet beyond all that, my biggest issue lies with the moral quagmire the party has mired itself in. Through the various scandals that have plagued the party over the last few years, the leadership has failed to respond with anything other than political posturing. The sins are almost too numerous to recall – lobbying scandals, sexual harassment, Partygate, and the tawdry gambling issue of the last few weeks.On each of these, it was not just the original error, but the way the party contorted itself away from any sense of contrition or repentance. Political and policy failings are one thing, people are entitled to get things wrong – but this repeated retreat from decency is something the party needs to be shaken out of."
But really it no longer matters much what happens on Thursday IMO. The recent Supreme Court judgment, its consequences for American democracy, a Trump win and what that means for Ukraine and European security are the "events" which will impact the next few years. Tough times ahead, I fear.
Certainly looks like Starmer will have to leave the domestic side of policy to Reeves and Fadden while he deals with very threatening international situation.
Time to rearm.
Which requires money being taken from someone.
Oldies, benefit recipients, public sector workers.
The choice isn't from which as it will be from all of them.
The choice is how much from each group.
Labour have been disingenuous over tax and spend. And yet the Tories would never have had such dilemmas. Tax cuts, increased defense budgets and Rwanda can all be funded from the magic money tree.
I felt McFadden this morning was dying to say: "Of course we are lying but the other lot are lying worse, vote for change" but just stopped himself from this transparent truth. (He's done well as shadow minister for Radio 4 overall. Very safe pair of hands).
Mishal put McFadden in a tricky position this morning with a very good point about how Labour intend to deal with small boats if Le Pen’s mob are in control.
She pointed out that they might actually be quite keen for immigrants to leave PdC on boats rather than stay in France and also played a clip of a former French politician from earlier in the programme pointing out that Barella has absolutely no desire or need to negotiate a returns or cooperation agreement with the UK on migrants.
McFadden’s answer was “we will set up Border Command”.
Mishal also asked him if Labour had been putting out any feelers to RN as Lammy has been meeting with Macron’s people and it appears not.
So I can see Labour being tested hard on small boats from the start and if they can’t get agreements with a new French government a lot of people might start pointing out that a nasty tough deterrent such as Rwanda might be the only option.
It’s almost certain that there will be a small boat lost or capsized at some point over the summer, with the resultant loss of life making the news.
The reality of the situation is that the French have little incentive to co-operate, and only by reducing the pull factors will the crossings stop. Which in practice means that arriving illegally automatically results in deportation.
I’ve said it before, but the average man in the pub simply doesn’t understand why the government have been unable to either escort illegals to Dover to be sent straight back to France, or to reopen RAF Manston and put on a daily flight to Kigali.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
I agree although leadership elections are usually interesting. I am 62. Tomorrow may be the last day of Conservative government I see. I hope that the idiots voting for Reform tomorrow are happy with that. 10-15 years of Labour government will see a lot of them out.
Most of the reform people will be dead and buried by the time Labour have gone.
The real problem with Reform isn't the sustainability of the current Farage limited company masquerading as a political party. It's whether what we're seeing is the beginning in this country of the anti-democracy myth that's been growing in the US and (till now, just the rest of) Western Europe - exemplified by the proportion of the Yoof population supporting autocracies in polls.
Simple demographics won't deal with this trend. We need positive leadership from all sides of the responsible parties (especially including the heirs to Britain's Tories) in demonstrating to every group the benefits of a politically accountable real democracy.
Yes you have to keep fighting for accountable governance. People like Farage are a virus. They keep mutating and new defences are needed.
The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts Westminster voting intention
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
It does seem startling that 21% gets the Tories only 66 seats while 11% gets the LDs 70.
In 2010 LDs got 23% and only 57 seats, so I can believe the Tory figure. It's the LDs 70 for 11% that looks a big stretch; their vote will have to be super-efficient for that.
In my bit of the Blue Wall, LD candidates who started this election assuming they'd be gallant losers are now pinching themselves as canvass returns and chats in pubs tell them there's a real prospect of becoming MPs. No idea how many of them really believe that - but, on today's evidence, the Tories will lose every single seat in the county and LD "voting efficiency" has been transformed.
There are many reasons the LDs may not sweep up as many local seats as they'd like (such as the unprecedented ferocity of last-minute Labour and Tory campaigning against the LDs, and huge lack of clarity about who'll actually cast a vote). But results in 2010 (or 2019) really aren't among them.
This is a classic case of candidatitis. It happens in every election.
Many politicians are by nature optimists. While out canvassing they take note of all the people greeting them with smiles and saying they absolutely will vote Lib Dem, and they skirt over the dozens of houses where "nobody was in", including those where a curtain definitely twitched or a dog barked but nobody answered.
They start putting two and two together and making five. Their canvassing experience tells them that about 50% of everyone they speak to is voting Lib Dem. They get excited. They start to believe. They are then brought crashing down to earth on election night.
This is particularly acute in seats that are not being aggressively targeted because there isn't the more experienced party machine around to temper expectations and do the proper adjustments to canvas returns.
Still no sign of the Survation poll which was supposed to appear on GMB .
Maybe it’s caused a shock at their headquarters and they’re double checking their data !
Can they release it now? I thought there was a bar on polls less than 24 hours before voting begins, or is that just campaigning?
The UK doesn’t have that rule . You can still release a poll even on Election Day as long as the fieldwork stopped before midnight tonight .
Given what we've heard from past elections, maybe it doesn't match what they *think* the election result will be, so they're all sitting around wondering what numbers they change.
A friend went to the local hustings this week. She says that the Workers Party GB candiate announced at the meeting that she will be standing as an Independent, even though her election literature has a picture of George Galloway on it. It seems she has fallen out with gorgeous George.
I bet you have to succumb to the cult of George to prosper in that party.
So I can see Labour being tested hard on small boats from the start and if they can’t get agreements with a new French government a lot of people might start pointing out that a nasty tough deterrent such as Rwanda might be the only option.
If Rwanda was such a fucking great solution there was nothing stopping Big Rish from launching a flight to Kigali before the election. The fact that he didn't and instead chose to campaign on the idea of Rwanda rather than the actuality of the policy tells us everything about how effective the tories think it will be.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
I agree although leadership elections are usually interesting. I am 62. Tomorrow may be the last day of Conservative government I see. I hope that the idiots voting for Reform tomorrow are happy with that. 10-15 years of Labour government will see a lot of them out.
Most of the reform people will be dead and buried by the time Labour have gone.
The real problem with Reform isn't the sustainability of the current Farage limited company masquerading as a political party. It's whether what we're seeing is the beginning in this country of the anti-democracy myth that's been growing in the US and (till now, just the rest of) Western Europe - exemplified by the proportion of the Yoof population supporting autocracies in polls.
Simple demographics won't deal with this trend. We need positive leadership from all sides of the responsible parties (especially including the heirs to Britain's Tories) in demonstrating to every group the benefits of a politically accountable real democracy.
Yes you have to keep fighting for accountable governance. People like Farage are a virus. They keep mutating and new defences are needed.
The only way to deal with the like of Farage is to argue his points. Treating him as beyond the pale and a threat to democracy only makes him more popular.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
I agree although leadership elections are usually interesting. I am 62. Tomorrow may be the last day of Conservative government I see. I hope that the idiots voting for Reform tomorrow are happy with that. 10-15 years of Labour government will see a lot of them out.
Most of the reform people will be dead and buried by the time Labour have gone.
The real problem with Reform isn't the sustainability of the current Farage limited company masquerading as a political party. It's whether what we're seeing is the beginning in this country of the anti-democracy myth that's been growing in the US and (till now, just the rest of) Western Europe - exemplified by the proportion of the Yoof population supporting autocracies in polls.
Simple demographics won't deal with this trend. We need positive leadership from all sides of the responsible parties (especially including the heirs to Britain's Tories) in demonstrating to every group the benefits of a politically accountable real democracy.
The benefit of democracy is that there is a feedback mechanism so that policies desired by the people are implemented. If democratic politicians refuse to do this, it discredits democracy.
It also means if she narrowly lost in a wipeout scenario she could get a second munch
Gerry Malone waves hello.
And what a by election that was. I have so many stories from it. It was tremendous fun. We were all invited in for the declaration by the police and also entertainment provided by Screaming Lord Such at the party afterwards.
Please share them.
Will do later. Out delivering now. But a couple of snippets:
Only election where I have been stopped on the street several times by people wanting to tell you they are going to vote for you or asking for window posters. Normally people avoid you as if you had the plague.
Made an executive decision not to canvas the house that the fire brigade were putting out.
OK a few others:
One day I was the minder for Robert McLennan, I was also partnered with David laws for knocking up. I got chatted up at the after election party, but had to point out to him that my wife and children might not approve. In a conversation with one voter in Meon (now in another constituency) the discussion led to talk about the Navy. 'Oh what do you do in the Navy' Answer 'I run it'. And going by where he lived I suspect that was true. After a lot of outs at one house full of students I got 13 LDs.
And for Nick who doesn't believe in lots of leaflets we had (one of many leaflets going out during knockup) a letter from Mark Oaten's wife not just dated, but timed at 4pm. How many letters do you get with a time on it?
But the best bit was the evening party. There were hundreds of us there with David Rendell and David Chidgey hosting it. They were both brilliant, feeding back the latest gossip on the count. Eventually we were told that it looked like a declaration was due and the hall we had (which was full of TV cameras) was a stones throw away so we all piled over to the count and singing spontaneously broke out. The police then came out and announced we were going to be let into the hall for the declaration.
So there were hundreds of LDs and just about nobody else. And the declaration was perfect because of the order of the surnames of the candidates. Labour first, 900 odd votes. There was a huge taking in of breath in the hall that their vote had been almost entirely wiped out. Then Malone which resulted in a huge cheer. Then Oaten which resulted in a gasp at the size of the vote and then a huge cheer. Majority in just a few months goes from 2 to 22,000.
What a party afterwards with Screaming Lord Sutch and his band providing the entertainment.
Scotland seems very sensible in not drinking the Farage Kool-Aid.
More generally, I get the impression that Farage's balloon has been slowly deflating this past couple of weeks. People are realising that one or two MPs are not going to make any difference.
We have had multiple canvas teams out for weeks. What is remarkable is the sheer number of people STILL undecided just days before polling. There is certainly the potential for significnt numbers of those to have voted Conservative by tomorrow night.
I still refuse to believe polling that shows more than half of the 2019 Conservative vote has departed. That is not consistent with my experience (at least until this week, when I have been hors de combat with Covid). A third I could believe. But not more than half.
Be wary of "everybody hates the Tories" narratives from social media. There is an army of Conservative voters who will keep their thoughts to themselves, other than to a Conservative door-knoocker.
You're absolutely right about the undecideds. A lot a lot of them. But which way they will break? I think we know what the Tories expect - and it isn't towards them.
The tone and content of their social media, combined with the places Sunak is going in the final days tells us everything we need to know about the overall canvass return that you and others are sending into them.
It is absolutely possible that those undecided Tory last time voters will go out and vote Tory after all. Or they could stay at home as they did in 1997. Or they could go "fuck it" and join the slide away. We just don't know.
Psychology comes into play. Its very hard to make a final break for something against the wisdom of the crowd. The final Tory pitch isn't "we want to do x", its "ignore the crowd going that way, come this way". That is a difficult thing to persuade people to do.
Off topic betting post - I think Jasper Philipsen's stage win odds on the Tour de France sprint stages are far too short. He was under 1.9 for the first sprint stage which is absolutely ridiculous for anyone in a bunch sprint, especially as his form's not as dominant as it was last year. He's 2.4 for today's stage and I think that's still worth the lay at that price
Bit of a trend in Scotland. The other notable thing is a small recovery in the Lib Dem vote in a couple of Scottish polls.
My gut feel, and it may be proved completely wrong tomorrow, is that Swinney has done just enough to steady the SNP ship. That there's been nothing new about SNP finances for a while helps too.
But plenty about the SNP gazumping public money by using MSP stamps to post campaign materials. And that has been talked about an awful lot...
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
That has already happened. With respect to the Sunak / @Casino_Royale tantrum about tax, nobody at all is listening. Nobody. The party has lost all credibility to be able to attack anybody on tax and spend. The reason why the polls haven't moved is because the Tory campaign has been gaff after gaff after gaff, and has now reduced itself to pleeeeeeaase don't let Keir Starmer fuck and then eat your puppy.
Cease to be relevant in 48 hours? Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
I'm saying this to be deviled apricot a bit... but honourable mention here for Sturgeon's scandal and resignation. The SNP has been an irrelevance in this campaign, but Sturgeon's SNP were incredibly useful to the Tories as bogeymen for English voters. The message that a weak and vacillating Labour leader would have rings run round him by a sharp, tough Sturgeon in her pomp really played well for them. But the SNP are now seen as waning, and Swinney isn't going to be running rings around anyone. The Tories lost a real trump card there.
I mean, in truth there are several factors at play - particularly Partygate and the Truss/Kwarteng budget. But the Coalition of Chaos theme, with Sturgeon at its heart, is just so much stronger than, "If Starmer has a large majority, Michael Fabricant will be less able to scrutinise every sub-section of the Dangerous Cats Bill 2026 in the forensic manner for which he is justly famed".
My own vote goes to the Furlough scheme.
Very generous and gave people the expectation that the Govt will always bail them out.
Will end in tears; eventual IMF bailout, I suspect.
Are you saying the furlough scheme was 220 yards too long?
One day people will learn not to write either the Tory or Labour obituary when they sit at one of their low points. I think the risk of maximum danger for the Tories (being overtaken by Reform on votes and the LibDems on seats) has passed, and something 1997 shaped which should shake them to their core will feel “ok”.
How quickly they recover is partly to do with them and how they reshape, but mostly to do with Starmer in power. He doesn’t have the freedom to act that Blair had, there’s bad news to come, and we certainly aren’t in for strong growth any time soon.
At this stage, forecasting 2029 is a mug’s game. It might be a political sea change, or we might be back to the 70s.
But for now, what matters is what the new Government does from Friday morning. There’s a lot in the in-tray. I am quite interested in a “first Tory lead” market after the election, because I suspect it will be the Autumn and I bet I’ll get good odds.
Kamala now fav for the Dem Nom. There's just too much going on. My head's throbbing.
Yes US politics has gone completely mad after last week’s debate. There’s a civil war erupted in the Democtatic Party, between pro-Biden and anti-Biden factions, the latter being furious that the former have conspired to cover up the obvious frailty of the old man, which displayed itself at the debate. Last week was the first time the general public, as opposed to political obsessives, got to see just how bad the President’s heath has become.
Still no sign of the Survation poll which was supposed to appear on GMB .
Maybe it’s caused a shock at their headquarters and they’re double checking their data !
Can they release it now? I thought there was a bar on polls less than 24 hours before voting begins, or is that just campaigning?
The UK doesn’t have that rule . You can still release a poll even on Election Day as long as the fieldwork stopped before midnight tonight .
Given what we've heard from past elections, maybe it doesn't match what they *think* the election result will be, so they're all sitting around wondering what numbers they change.
If it’s a phone poll it’s more likely to have the shy Reform voter given the news over the last week .
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
I agree although leadership elections are usually interesting. I am 62. Tomorrow may be the last day of Conservative government I see. I hope that the idiots voting for Reform tomorrow are happy with that. 10-15 years of Labour government will see a lot of them out.
Most of the reform people will be dead and buried by the time Labour have gone.
The real problem with Reform isn't the sustainability of the current Farage limited company masquerading as a political party. It's whether what we're seeing is the beginning in this country of the anti-democracy myth that's been growing in the US and (till now, just the rest of) Western Europe - exemplified by the proportion of the Yoof population supporting autocracies in polls.
Simple demographics won't deal with this trend. We need positive leadership from all sides of the responsible parties (especially including the heirs to Britain's Tories) in demonstrating to every group the benefits of a politically accountable real democracy.
Yes you have to keep fighting for accountable governance. People like Farage are a virus. They keep mutating and new defences are needed.
The only way to deal with the like of Farage is to argue his points. Treating him as beyond the pale and a threat to democracy only makes him more popular.
Yes. If we are to avoid a situation where the populist right surges, mainstream politicians are going to have to start engaging with the debate. That means talking about things that make mainstream politicians feel quite queasy.
I fully expect them to fluff it but I hope I’m wrong.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
That has already happened. With respect to the Sunak / @Casino_Royale tantrum about tax, nobody at all is listening. Nobody. The party has lost all credibility to be able to attack anybody on tax and spend. The reason why the polls haven't moved is because the Tory campaign has been gaff after gaff after gaff, and has now reduced itself to pleeeeeeaase don't let Keir Starmer fuck and then eat your puppy.
Cease to be relevant in 48 hours? Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
I'm saying this to be deviled apricot a bit... but honourable mention here for Sturgeon's scandal and resignation. The SNP has been an irrelevance in this campaign, but Sturgeon's SNP were incredibly useful to the Tories as bogeymen for English voters. The message that a weak and vacillating Labour leader would have rings run round him by a sharp, tough Sturgeon in her pomp really played well for them. But the SNP are now seen as waning, and Swinney isn't going to be running rings around anyone. The Tories lost a real trump card there.
I mean, in truth there are several factors at play - particularly Partygate and the Truss/Kwarteng budget. But the Coalition of Chaos theme, with Sturgeon at its heart, is just so much stronger than, "If Starmer has a large majority, Michael Fabricant will be less able to scrutinise every sub-section of the Dangerous Cats Bill 2026 in the forensic manner for which he is justly famed".
My own vote goes to the Furlough scheme.
Very generous and gave people the expectation that the Govt will always bail them out.
Will end in tears; eventual IMF bailout, I suspect.
Are you saying the furlough scheme was 220 yards too long?
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
That has already happened. With respect to the Sunak / @Casino_Royale tantrum about tax, nobody at all is listening. Nobody. The party has lost all credibility to be able to attack anybody on tax and spend. The reason why the polls haven't moved is because the Tory campaign has been gaff after gaff after gaff, and has now reduced itself to pleeeeeeaase don't let Keir Starmer fuck and then eat your puppy.
Cease to be relevant in 48 hours? Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
I'm saying this to be deviled apricot a bit... but honourable mention here for Sturgeon's scandal and resignation. The SNP has been an irrelevance in this campaign, but Sturgeon's SNP were incredibly useful to the Tories as bogeymen for English voters. The message that a weak and vacillating Labour leader would have rings run round him by a sharp, tough Sturgeon in her pomp really played well for them. But the SNP are now seen as waning, and Swinney isn't going to be running rings around anyone. The Tories lost a real trump card there.
I mean, in truth there are several factors at play - particularly Partygate and the Truss/Kwarteng budget. But the Coalition of Chaos theme, with Sturgeon at its heart, is just so much stronger than, "If Starmer has a large majority, Michael Fabricant will be less able to scrutinise every sub-section of the Dangerous Cats Bill 2026 in the forensic manner for which he is justly famed".
My own vote goes to the Furlough scheme.
Very generous and gave people the expectation that the Govt will always bail them out.
Will end in tears; eventual IMF bailout, I suspect.
Are you saying the furlough scheme was 220 yards too long?
That’s the furlong scheme.
Nah.that's the Tory scheme to go back to the 19th century and measure everything in perches and drachms.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
I agree although leadership elections are usually interesting. I am 62. Tomorrow may be the last day of Conservative government I see. I hope that the idiots voting for Reform tomorrow are happy with that. 10-15 years of Labour government will see a lot of them out.
Most of the reform people will be dead and buried by the time Labour have gone.
The real problem with Reform isn't the sustainability of the current Farage limited company masquerading as a political party. It's whether what we're seeing is the beginning in this country of the anti-democracy myth that's been growing in the US and (till now, just the rest of) Western Europe - exemplified by the proportion of the Yoof population supporting autocracies in polls.
Simple demographics won't deal with this trend. We need positive leadership from all sides of the responsible parties (especially including the heirs to Britain's Tories) in demonstrating to every group the benefits of a politically accountable real democracy.
Yes you have to keep fighting for accountable governance. People like Farage are a virus. They keep mutating and new defences are needed.
The only way to deal with the like of Farage is to argue his points. Treating him as beyond the pale and a threat to democracy only makes him more popular.
Yes! That's what I meant. I didn't express it as well as you. We shouldn't accommodate but we do need to argue his points. We should be empathetic with the people that have bought his snake oil. As with any fraud they are the victims
Kamala now fav for the Dem Nom. There's just too much going on. My head's throbbing.
Yes US politics has gone completely mad after last week’s debate. There’s a civil war erupted in the Democtatic Party, between pro-Biden and anti-Biden factions, the latter being furious that the former have conspired to cover up the obvious frailty of the old man, which displayed itself at the debate. Last week was the first time the general public, as opposed to political obsessives, got to see just how bad the President’s heath has become.
That said it sounds like he had severe jetlag and a heavy summer cold.
Since he's tagged me a few times in this, I'll return the favour. Penultimate day of the election today before it all ends tomorrow, unless you're @Anabobazina in which case there's only the one day left and nothing happening tomorrow. 😉
The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts Westminster voting intention
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
It does seem startling that 21% gets the Tories only 66 seats while 11% gets the LDs 70.
In 2010 LDs got 23% and only 57 seats, so I can believe the Tory figure. It's the LDs 70 for 11% that looks a big stretch; their vote will have to be super-efficient for that.
In my bit of the Blue Wall, LD candidates who started this election assuming they'd be gallant losers are now pinching themselves as canvass returns and chats in pubs tell them there's a real prospect of becoming MPs. No idea how many of them really believe that - but, on today's evidence, the Tories will lose every single seat in the county and LD "voting efficiency" has been transformed.
There are many reasons the LDs may not sweep up as many local seats as they'd like (such as the unprecedented ferocity of last-minute Labour and Tory campaigning against the LDs, and huge lack of clarity about who'll actually cast a vote). But results in 2010 (or 2019) really aren't among them.
This is a classic case of candidatitis. It happens in every election.
Many politicians are by nature optimists. While out canvassing they take note of all the people greeting them with smiles and saying they absolutely will vote Lib Dem, and they skirt over the dozens of houses where "nobody was in", including those where a curtain definitely twitched or a dog barked but nobody answered.
They start putting two and two together and making five. Their canvassing experience tells them that about 50% of everyone they speak to is voting Lib Dem. They get excited. They start to believe. They are then brought crashing down to earth on election night.
This is particularly acute in seats that are not being aggressively targeted because there isn't the more experienced party machine around to temper expectations and do the proper adjustments to canvas returns.
Very true! Then again I also know what it is like being the bagman for a candidate where you're expected to win but the canvas returns and chats on the doorstep show that the tide has turned against you.
Very easy to get carried away - absolutely. I am 100% talking up my chances because thats what you do. I'm 100% talking up the candidates who won from 3rd and even 4th. But I'm also rooted in reality and know that its a stretch for me. But for others in the blue wall?
Here's the thing. We know the game is on because (a) Sunak is both campaigning in seats they hold with whopping majorities and pumping out "If you vote LibDem Starmer will eat your puppy" Facebook ads, and (b) Davey is pushing out from the initial target seats into the longer list of targets.
We know there could be a LD surge because everyone can see it. Including the Tories. It isn't candidatitis if its validated by data from pollsters and both parties. May not happen. But we're less than 24 hours from the poll and I think we're going to surprise a lot of people on the upside.
Kamala now fav for the Dem Nom. There's just too much going on. My head's throbbing.
Yes US politics has gone completely mad after last week’s debate. There’s a civil war erupted in the Democtatic Party, between pro-Biden and anti-Biden factions, the latter being furious that the former have conspired to cover up the obvious frailty of the old man, which displayed itself at the debate. Last week was the first time the general public, as opposed to political obsessives, got to see just how bad the President’s heath has become.
That said it sounds like he had severe jetlag and a heavy summer cold.
Not to anyone who has ever had either of those things it doesn't
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
It also means if she narrowly lost in a wipeout scenario she could get a second munch
Gerry Malone waves hello.
And what a by election that was. I have so many stories from it. It was tremendous fun. We were all invited in for the declaration by the police and also entertainment provided by Screaming Lord Such at the party afterwards.
Please share them.
Will do later. Out delivering now. But a couple of snippets:
Only election where I have been stopped on the street several times by people wanting to tell you they are going to vote for you or asking for window posters. Normally people avoid you as if you had the plague.
Made an executive decision not to canvas the house that the fire brigade were putting out.
Shouldn’t you have heroically rushed in, rescued a milky cow and jumped out of a window brandishing a LibDem banner?
The market that isn't available but should be is...
Best independent vote share!
Will it be Jeremy Corbyn in Islington N? Or will it be Alex Easton in N Down? Or could it be anyone else?
How about lowest winning vote %?
Newton Abbot ? Lib Dems on something like 35% ? Probably wrong. The more eurosceptic bits of the SW with a bit of Labour hinterland in..
My latest UK-Elect forecast has the Conservatives winning Newton Abbott - on less than 26%!
Problem for the Tories is the libdems are taking many seats in the south by default. Largely thanks to reform taking almost all their vote from the Tories. Even is euro friendly areas
Kamala Harris now 2nd favourite to be POTUS 2024 on the Exchange.
stjohn - the big surprise for me was the speed and extent to which Biden's odds have lengthened over revent days, reaching 8.6 to buy on the BetfairX this morning, at which level you'd have to coclude that he's finished and surely can't continue for more than a matter of weeks. This, I believe, is the main reason for Kamala Harris' shortening price, since she would automatically become acting POTUS if/when Biden resigns which puts her in the driving seat to win the November election in her own right, although she faces potentially strong opposition. An interesting prospect for me would be to LAY Trump on the exchange against him being returned to the White House. With all his own problems and pitched againt someone much younger and at least as intellectually articulate andcapable, I fail to see how he merits his current short odds-on probability of winning such a contest. In seeming to go comparatively easy against his struggling opponent in last week's debate, Trump seemed to me to be accepting that his best shot of once again becoming POTUS was by ensuring that Biden is selected as the Democrats' nominee which now appears very unlikely.
Kamala now fav for the Dem Nom. There's just too much going on. My head's throbbing.
Yes US politics has gone completely mad after last week’s debate. There’s a civil war erupted in the Democtatic Party, between pro-Biden and anti-Biden factions, the latter being furious that the former have conspired to cover up the obvious frailty of the old man, which displayed itself at the debate. Last week was the first time the general public, as opposed to political obsessives, got to see just how bad the President’s heath has become.
I cannot see him clinging on now.
I think the WH and the Bidens really, really tried to dig their heels in over the weekend, but there is now an air of panic growing. Biden is coming out with more feeble excuses. The WH aren’t even trying to spin it much anymore. And the Democratic establishment have gone very quiet.
I have been thinking of a few places to hide away your way. Where would pick from my list. Forest of Bowland.The hills near Great Harwood, Ramsbottom, Around Clitheroe. The glorious countryside near to Lancaster heading towards the Yorkshire border?
Kamala now fav for the Dem Nom. There's just too much going on. My head's throbbing.
Yes US politics has gone completely mad after last week’s debate. There’s a civil war erupted in the Democtatic Party, between pro-Biden and anti-Biden factions, the latter being furious that the former have conspired to cover up the obvious frailty of the old man, which displayed itself at the debate. Last week was the first time the general public, as opposed to political obsessives, got to see just how bad the President’s heath has become.
I would have hoped that the SCOTUS judgement might have focused a few Democrat minds around how utterly vital it is that Trump does not win in November. So far it seems that those around Biden are suffering from Tory levels of delusion.
The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts Westminster voting intention
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
It does seem startling that 21% gets the Tories only 66 seats while 11% gets the LDs 70.
In 2010 LDs got 23% and only 57 seats, so I can believe the Tory figure. It's the LDs 70 for 11% that looks a big stretch; their vote will have to be super-efficient for that.
In my bit of the Blue Wall, LD candidates who started this election assuming they'd be gallant losers are now pinching themselves as canvass returns and chats in pubs tell them there's a real prospect of becoming MPs. No idea how many of them really believe that - but, on today's evidence, the Tories will lose every single seat in the county and LD "voting efficiency" has been transformed.
There are many reasons the LDs may not sweep up as many local seats as they'd like (such as the unprecedented ferocity of last-minute Labour and Tory campaigning against the LDs, and huge lack of clarity about who'll actually cast a vote). But results in 2010 (or 2019) really aren't among them.
This is a classic case of candidatitis. It happens in every election.
Many politicians are by nature optimists. While out canvassing they take note of all the people greeting them with smiles and saying they absolutely will vote Lib Dem, and they skirt over the dozens of houses where "nobody was in", including those where a curtain definitely twitched or a dog barked but nobody answered.
They start putting two and two together and making five. Their canvassing experience tells them that about 50% of everyone they speak to is voting Lib Dem. They get excited. They start to believe. They are then brought crashing down to earth on election night.
This is particularly acute in seats that are not being aggressively targeted because there isn't the more experienced party machine around to temper expectations and do the proper adjustments to canvas returns.
Bottom line, intimate involvement with the election through canvassing etc is no guarantee of picking up accurate info.
One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.
In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.
It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.
Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.
The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.
I agree although leadership elections are usually interesting. I am 62. Tomorrow may be the last day of Conservative government I see. I hope that the idiots voting for Reform tomorrow are happy with that. 10-15 years of Labour government will see a lot of them out.
Most of the reform people will be dead and buried by the time Labour have gone.
The real problem with Reform isn't the sustainability of the current Farage limited company masquerading as a political party. It's whether what we're seeing is the beginning in this country of the anti-democracy myth that's been growing in the US and (till now, just the rest of) Western Europe - exemplified by the proportion of the Yoof population supporting autocracies in polls.
Simple demographics won't deal with this trend. We need positive leadership from all sides of the responsible parties (especially including the heirs to Britain's Tories) in demonstrating to every group the benefits of a politically accountable real democracy.
Yes you have to keep fighting for accountable governance. People like Farage are a virus. They keep mutating and new defences are needed.
The only way to deal with the like of Farage is to argue his points. Treating him as beyond the pale and a threat to democracy only makes him more popular.
Isn't this the status quo? For the last ten years or so, media give blanket coverage to whatever he says, politicians rush to do something about it or not, and he doesn't win elections.
The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts Westminster voting intention
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
It does seem startling that 21% gets the Tories only 66 seats while 11% gets the LDs 70.
In 2010 LDs got 23% and only 57 seats, so I can believe the Tory figure. It's the LDs 70 for 11% that looks a big stretch; their vote will have to be super-efficient for that.
In my bit of the Blue Wall, LD candidates who started this election assuming they'd be gallant losers are now pinching themselves as canvass returns and chats in pubs tell them there's a real prospect of becoming MPs. No idea how many of them really believe that - but, on today's evidence, the Tories will lose every single seat in the county and LD "voting efficiency" has been transformed.
There are many reasons the LDs may not sweep up as many local seats as they'd like (such as the unprecedented ferocity of last-minute Labour and Tory campaigning against the LDs, and huge lack of clarity about who'll actually cast a vote). But results in 2010 (or 2019) really aren't among them.
This is a classic case of candidatitis. It happens in every election.
Many politicians are by nature optimists. While out canvassing they take note of all the people greeting them with smiles and saying they absolutely will vote Lib Dem, and they skirt over the dozens of houses where "nobody was in", including those where a curtain definitely twitched or a dog barked but nobody answered.
They start putting two and two together and making five. Their canvassing experience tells them that about 50% of everyone they speak to is voting Lib Dem. They get excited. They start to believe. They are then brought crashing down to earth on election night.
This is particularly acute in seats that are not being aggressively targeted because there isn't the more experienced party machine around to temper expectations and do the proper adjustments to canvas returns.
Lib Dem polling has been absolutely flat, either their % is going to be way higher than expected or seat numbers will be lower than predicted. Doesn;t seem plausible they can get 60-70 seats from 10-11% across mainland UK.
One day people will learn not to write either the Tory or Labour obituary when they sit at one of their low points. I think the risk of maximum danger for the Tories (being overtaken by Reform on votes and the LibDems on seats) has passed, and something 1997 shaped which should shake them to their core will feel “ok”.
How quickly they recover is partly to do with them and how they reshape, but mostly to do with Starmer in power. He doesn’t have the freedom to act that Blair had, there’s bad news to come, and we certainly aren’t in for strong growth any time soon.
At this stage, forecasting 2029 is a mug’s game. It might be a political sea change, or we might be back to the 70s.
But for now, what matters is what the new Government does from Friday morning. There’s a lot in the in-tray. I am quite interested in a “first Tory lead” market after the election, because I suspect it will be the Autumn and I bet I’ll get good odds.
One thing Starmer has in his favour is low expectations. He's not riding in on a wave of hope like Blair, and isn't basking in Corbynesque adulation. Nobody expects him to do wonderful things from the start; it's more that people just want somebody reasonably competent at the helm. I'd therefore expect him to have a somewhat longer honeymoon period than you suggest.
@Andy_JS - you asked in the last thread if there would be any Tories left in Oxfordshire.
Other than the prospect of them holding on through the middle in Bicester & Woodstock or in Didcot & Wantage, their best prospect is Witney.
Although until the votes are counted, they could hold on everywhere out of a fortunate distribution of votes of course, or a late softening towards them (I will never count the chickens before they're hatched and Lib Dems have scars on their backs from hope in the past).
I understand that Labour have been concerned in Banbury that it's proving to have a resilient Tory share (and the campaign visits from both Starmer and Sunak recently indicate that both think it's still in the fight), but I think Labour have got it there - albeit from a bit of a distance and with minimal direct knowledge of that constituency.
Witney, though, always looked the hardest nut to crack and at the start of the campaign, I assumed it'd stay blue but with a decent Lib Dem advance. However, virtually everything seems to have broken ideally for Charlie Maynard and it seems to be genuinely in the balance (as per the campaign visits by Sunak and Davey - they both seem to think it's gettable by either).
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts Westminster voting intention
Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.
It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.
It does seem startling that 21% gets the Tories only 66 seats while 11% gets the LDs 70.
In 2010 LDs got 23% and only 57 seats, so I can believe the Tory figure. It's the LDs 70 for 11% that looks a big stretch; their vote will have to be super-efficient for that.
In my bit of the Blue Wall, LD candidates who started this election assuming they'd be gallant losers are now pinching themselves as canvass returns and chats in pubs tell them there's a real prospect of becoming MPs. No idea how many of them really believe that - but, on today's evidence, the Tories will lose every single seat in the county and LD "voting efficiency" has been transformed.
There are many reasons the LDs may not sweep up as many local seats as they'd like (such as the unprecedented ferocity of last-minute Labour and Tory campaigning against the LDs, and huge lack of clarity about who'll actually cast a vote). But results in 2010 (or 2019) really aren't among them.
This is a classic case of candidatitis. It happens in every election.
Many politicians are by nature optimists. While out canvassing they take note of all the people greeting them with smiles and saying they absolutely will vote Lib Dem, and they skirt over the dozens of houses where "nobody was in", including those where a curtain definitely twitched or a dog barked but nobody answered.
They start putting two and two together and making five. Their canvassing experience tells them that about 50% of everyone they speak to is voting Lib Dem. They get excited. They start to believe. They are then brought crashing down to earth on election night.
This is particularly acute in seats that are not being aggressively targeted because there isn't the more experienced party machine around to temper expectations and do the proper adjustments to canvas returns.
Very true! Then again I also know what it is like being the bagman for a candidate where you're expected to win but the canvas returns and chats on the doorstep show that the tide has turned against you.
Very easy to get carried away - absolutely. I am 100% talking up my chances because thats what you do. I'm 100% talking up the candidates who won from 3rd and even 4th. But I'm also rooted in reality and know that its a stretch for me. But for others in the blue wall?
Here's the thing. We know the game is on because (a) Sunak is both campaigning in seats they hold with whopping majorities and pumping out "If you vote LibDem Starmer will eat your puppy" Facebook ads, and (b) Davey is pushing out from the initial target seats into the longer list of targets.
We know there could be a LD surge because everyone can see it. Including the Tories. It isn't candidatitis if its validated by data from pollsters and both parties. May not happen. But we're less than 24 hours from the poll and I think we're going to surprise a lot of people on the upside.
I really hope so, but muscle memory gives me that sense of dread and foreboding ahead of general elections these days. The weather doesn't help. It's practically ANME weather in London this week, and due to get worse. Anchorage is subtropical by comparison.
This is a good summary of why the Tories deserve to lose -
"Yet beyond all that, my biggest issue lies with the moral quagmire the party has mired itself in. Through the various scandals that have plagued the party over the last few years, the leadership has failed to respond with anything other than political posturing. The sins are almost too numerous to recall – lobbying scandals, sexual harassment, Partygate, and the tawdry gambling issue of the last few weeks.On each of these, it was not just the original error, but the way the party contorted itself away from any sense of contrition or repentance. Political and policy failings are one thing, people are entitled to get things wrong – but this repeated retreat from decency is something the party needs to be shaken out of."
But really it no longer matters much what happens on Thursday IMO. The recent Supreme Court judgment, its consequences for American democracy, a Trump win and what that means for Ukraine and European security are the "events" which will impact the next few years. Tough times ahead, I fear.
Certainly looks like Starmer will have to leave the domestic side of policy to Reeves and Fadden while he deals with very threatening international situation.
Time to rearm.
Which requires money being taken from someone.
Oldies, benefit recipients, public sector workers.
The choice isn't from which as it will be from all of them.
The choice is how much from each group.
Labour have been disingenuous over tax and spend. And yet the Tories would never have had such dilemmas. Tax cuts, increased defense budgets and Rwanda can all be funded from the magic money tree.
I felt McFadden this morning was dying to say: "Of course we are lying but the other lot are lying worse, vote for change" but just stopped himself from this transparent truth. (He's done well as shadow minister for Radio 4 overall. Very safe pair of hands).
Mishal put McFadden in a tricky position this morning with a very good point about how Labour intend to deal with small boats if Le Pen’s mob are in control.
She pointed out that they might actually be quite keen for immigrants to leave PdC on boats rather than stay in France and also played a clip of a former French politician from earlier in the programme pointing out that Barella has absolutely no desire or need to negotiate a returns or cooperation agreement with the UK on migrants.
McFadden’s answer was “we will set up Border Command”.
Mishal also asked him if Labour had been putting out any feelers to RN as Lammy has been meeting with Macron’s people and it appears not.
So I can see Labour being tested hard on small boats from the start and if they can’t get agreements with a new French government a lot of people might start pointing out that a nasty tough deterrent such as Rwanda might be the only option.
It’s almost certain that there will be a small boat lost or capsized at some point over the summer, with the resultant loss of life making the news.
The reality of the situation is that the French have little incentive to co-operate, and only by reducing the pull factors will the crossings stop. Which in practice means that arriving illegally automatically results in deportation.
I’ve said it before, but the average man in the pub simply doesn’t understand why the government have been unable to either escort illegals to Dover to be sent straight back to France, or to reopen RAF Manston and put on a daily flight to Kigali.
Surely the simplest thing for Labour to do is to convert Rwanda to just an offshore processing arrangement. There should then be little legal objection to flights to Kigali as they will effectively be internal flights.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
One day people will learn not to write either the Tory or Labour obituary when they sit at one of their low points. I think the risk of maximum danger for the Tories (being overtaken by Reform on votes and the LibDems on seats) has passed, and something 1997 shaped which should shake them to their core will feel “ok”.
How quickly they recover is partly to do with them and how they reshape, but mostly to do with Starmer in power. He doesn’t have the freedom to act that Blair had, there’s bad news to come, and we certainly aren’t in for strong growth any time soon.
At this stage, forecasting 2029 is a mug’s game. It might be a political sea change, or we might be back to the 70s.
But for now, what matters is what the new Government does from Friday morning. There’s a lot in the in-tray. I am quite interested in a “first Tory lead” market after the election, because I suspect it will be the Autumn and I bet I’ll get good odds.
One thing Starmer has in his favour is low expectations. He's not riding in on a wave of hope like Blair, and isn't basking in Corbynesque adulation. Nobody expects him to do wonderful things from the start; it's more that people just want somebody reasonably competent at the helm. I'd therefore expect him to have a somewhat longer honeymoon period than you suggest.
'what he is, what he has always been, and what he will be as your next Prime Minister, is Not Rishi Sunak.'
Scotland seems very sensible in not drinking the Farage Kool-Aid.
More generally, I get the impression that Farage's balloon has been slowly deflating this past couple of weeks. People are realising that one or two MPs are not going to make any difference.
We have had multiple canvas teams out for weeks. What is remarkable is the sheer number of people STILL undecided just days before polling. There is certainly the potential for significnt numbers of those to have voted Conservative by tomorrow night.
I still refuse to believe polling that shows more than half of the 2019 Conservative vote has departed. That is not consistent with my experience (at least until this week, when I have been hors de combat with Covid). A third I could believe. But not more than half.
Be wary of "everybody hates the Tories" narratives from social media. There is an army of Conservative voters who will keep their thoughts to themselves, other than to a Conservative door-knoocker.
We're finding a huge number of convincing-sounding don't knows too in Didcot and Wantage. Some are presumably Tories who don't want to admit to it, but most sound as though they're genuinely unsure how and whether to vote. The defensive Labour campaign ("We won't drop the Ming vase"), the negative LibDem campaign (essentially "vote for us because we're not Tories or Labour") and the wildly thrashing Tory campaign (I can't find a common theme at all) have left Reform as the party offering cheerful messages that they can't deliver. I suspect many people genuinely won't vote and turnout will be unusually low.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
But it was Brexit that delivered the party into the clutches of Johnson.
@Andy_JS - you asked in the last thread if there would be any Tories left in Oxfordshire.
Other than the prospect of them holding on through the middle in Bicester & Woodstock or in Didcot & Wantage, their best prospect is Witney.
Although until the votes are counted, they could hold on everywhere out of a fortunate distribution of votes of course, or a late softening towards them (I will never count the chickens before they're hatched and Lib Dems have scars on their backs from hope in the past).
I understand that Labour have been concerned in Banbury that it's proving to have a resilient Tory share (and the campaign visits from both Starmer and Sunak recently indicate that both think it's still in the fight), but I think Labour have got it there - albeit from a bit of a distance and with minimal direct knowledge of that constituency.
Witney, though, always looked the hardest nut to crack and at the start of the campaign, I assumed it'd stay blue but with a decent Lib Dem advance. However, virtually everything seems to have broken ideally for Charlie Maynard and it seems to be genuinely in the balance (as per the campaign visits by Sunak and Davey - they both seem to think it's gettable by either).
I've got my fingers crossed for Oxfordshire and Surrey making a big advance in numbers for the LDs. However as you say we have been bitten before and I wouldn't be surprised if hopes are dashed.
Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.
I'm going with the Truss budget.
Brexit
It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
Comments
For a great many, perhaps even the vast majority of people voting Reform, the last 14 years - in particlar the last 5 years - mean that the Tories are no longer an alternative. They are detested and if Reform did not exist those voters would still not be voting Tory.
They have made two decisions.
The first is that hell would need to freeze over before they wouild vote for the current iteration of the Tory party.
The second is then a question of where they put that vote. Indeed you should probably be grateful so many of them are giving it to Reform rather than jumping direct to Labour. You should be grateful to people like me who are choosing to spoil their ballot rather than vote Labour.
Your party is so utterly discredited that you are lucky there are other parties than Labour to vote for because if not you may well be extinct.
Simple demographics won't deal with this trend. We need positive leadership from all sides of the responsible parties (especially including the heirs to Britain's Tories) in demonstrating to every group the benefits of a politically accountable real democracy.
In 2010 LDs got 23% and only 57 seats, so I can believe the Tory figure. It's the LDs 70 for 11% that looks a big stretch; their vote will have to be super-efficient for that.
There is no possibility at all that the interest will go away in trying to predict big elections. And, for the gambler, perfect information = no opportunity to beat the market with inspired research/guesswork.
Polling will be correct in outline anyway: Labour will do well and Tories badly.
If you pinned it on lockdowns that would make more sense imo.
And the Peppercorn Class Tornado, rescuing passengers when the system fails.
Lab 455
Con 94
LD 55
SNP 17
PC 3
Grn 3
Ref 4
Do it on UNS to get something more realistic.
I remain of the view that EC is overcooking the LDs and Reform particularly. I don’t discount it entirely, but as I have said before I am expecting Tory seat totals to be 20-30 better than anything EC is throwing up.
Whatever the result now, I see a huge opportunity to come for the Liberal Democrats. Starmer looks set to get a good two thirds of the new House of Commons on barely 40% of the vote. This discredits FPTP completely, and yet Starmer remains committed to it. Very soon his party will start to enact several very unpopular policies and each time they do, Ed Davey can beat up Labours distorted mandate.
An early example is VAT on school fees which is going to be unexpectedly unpopular not merely amongst parents of independent school kids, but amongst the aspirational, and amongst the parents of kids at good state schools which will now have to deal with higher rolls. Special schools are not exempted, and I am sure the press will find some photogenic dyslexic kids to pose for sad faced pictures. The mood music will not be pretty.
The discipline of the new government, with Sue Gray as chief Commissar will be formidable and the laser focus will be an immediate relief from the recent Tory shambles. The incoming administration is one of the best prepared in my life time, and the economy, though still fundamentally misfiring will nevertheless show clear signs of improvement. Not, however, for small businesses, which have been under the cosh since the GFC and especially Breexit. Good profits in the City, but not for SMEs. Stories of arrogant administrators and silly red tape will abound. The Mandelson love of the rich will start to make people see that Labour is not on the side of the little guys. Still the drip drip of how legitimate Labour´s democratic mandate will come in the background.
The centralising dirigiste soul of Labour will eventually get boring, and with so many idle hands, the devil will make work on the Labour back benches. Expulsions and Maoist discipline won`t altogether still the Greek chorus of back chat. The NHS will improve, but not by much, we are beyond the time where mere tinkering will solve that. Protests will grow in time.
Starmer has been a very lucky general. In the hour of his greatest victory, a triumph unlikely ever to be matched, there is a small voice that is saying... "Remember, you too must die".
It may not be the Tories that end Labour´s reign.
And take the unpopularity which comes with it.
Hopefully the extra tax raised will be spent competently.
But the slogans are already being written:
Keir Starmer the kid starver.
Starmer and Reeves the pension thieves.
And in five years time perhaps a return of that old favourite.
Labour isn't working.
Maybe it’s caused a shock at their headquarters and they’re double checking their data !
There are many reasons the LDs may not sweep up as many local seats as they'd like (such as the unprecedented ferocity of last-minute Labour and Tory campaigning against the LDs, and huge lack of clarity about who'll actually cast a vote). But results in 2010 (or 2019) really aren't among them.
- Things are a lot more expensive than 5 years ago
- People can't get a doctor's appointment
- Immigration has been at record highs, despite promises to reduce it
Of course, on top of that there's the air of incompetence, sleaze, dishonesty and the sense that their signature policy - leaving the EU - hasn't been a great success.
She pointed out that they might actually be quite keen for immigrants to leave PdC on boats rather than stay in France and also played a clip of a former French politician from earlier in the programme pointing out that Barella has absolutely no desire or need to negotiate a returns or cooperation agreement with the UK on migrants.
McFadden’s answer was “we will set up Border Command”.
Mishal also asked him if Labour had been putting out any feelers to RN as Lammy has been meeting with Macron’s people and it appears not.
So I can see Labour being tested hard on small boats from the start and if they can’t get agreements with a new French government a lot of people might start pointing out that a nasty tough deterrent such as Rwanda might be the only option.
(Also, although special schools are not exempted de jure the exclusion of EHCPs means they would be exempted de facto. It's a stupid policy for all sorts of reasons but let's keep to facts.)
Which is why it is so pleasing that so many of the "suck it up" brigade are about to be defenestrated
Take the incumbent Tories for example. In 2016 they proposed an alternative of exiting the European Union, correctly identifying that it would be a mistake. People voted for it anyway and those that allowed it to happen failed to implement it properly. In any normal organisation those people would be out on their ear but it took 8 years of further endemic incompetence for them to finally meet their come-uppance.
I don't actually expect Labour to reach the same dizzy heights of incompetence.
But only political obsessives like us will notice.
Whereas most people will notice, and often experience, what Labour does in government.
It shows Labour 420 seats, Conservative 123, Liberal Democrat 57, SNP 16, Reform UK 8, Plaid Cymru 4, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 192.
The forecast uses the current UK-Elect default forecasting settings, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of constituency opinion polls, by-elections since 2019, Brexit referendum leave/remain percentages, incumbency, and tactical voting among many other factors. This forecast combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. The forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240703ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
As always in this election, small adjustments to the polling data or methodology can make surprisingly big changes to the result, although never enough to either affect the overall result (a Labour majority of around 190 to 250 seats), or to match some of the more extreme MRP seat projections.
Some people may also find the UK-Elect links page useful as it contains a lot of links to election related websites: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/links.html
The reality of the situation is that the French have little incentive to co-operate, and only by reducing the pull factors will the crossings stop. Which in practice means that arriving illegally automatically results in deportation.
I’ve said it before, but the average man in the pub simply doesn’t understand why the government have been unable to either escort illegals to Dover to be sent straight back to France, or to reopen RAF Manston and put on a daily flight to Kigali.
Many politicians are by nature optimists. While out canvassing they take note of all the people greeting them with smiles and saying they absolutely will vote Lib Dem, and they skirt over the dozens of houses where "nobody was in", including those where a curtain definitely twitched or a dog barked but nobody answered.
They start putting two and two together and making five. Their canvassing experience tells them that about 50% of everyone they speak to is voting Lib Dem. They get excited. They start to believe. They are then brought crashing down to earth on election night.
This is particularly acute in seats that are not being aggressively targeted because there isn't the more experienced party machine around to temper expectations and do the proper adjustments to canvas returns.
One day I was the minder for Robert McLennan, I was also partnered with David laws for knocking up. I got chatted up at the after election party, but had to point out to him that my wife and children might not approve. In a conversation with one voter in Meon (now in another constituency) the discussion led to talk about the Navy. 'Oh what do you do in the Navy' Answer 'I run it'. And going by where he lived I suspect that was true. After a lot of outs at one house full of students I got 13 LDs.
And for Nick who doesn't believe in lots of leaflets we had (one of many leaflets going out during knockup) a letter from Mark Oaten's wife not just dated, but timed at 4pm. How many letters do you get with a time on it?
But the best bit was the evening party. There were hundreds of us there with David Rendell and David Chidgey hosting it. They were both brilliant, feeding back the latest gossip on the count. Eventually we were told that it looked like a declaration was due and the hall we had (which was full of TV cameras) was a stones throw away so we all piled over to the count and singing spontaneously broke out. The police then came out and announced we were going to be let into the hall for the declaration.
So there were hundreds of LDs and just about nobody else. And the declaration was perfect because of the order of the surnames of the candidates. Labour first, 900 odd votes. There was a huge taking in of breath in the hall that their vote had been almost entirely wiped out. Then Malone which resulted in a huge cheer. Then Oaten which resulted in a gasp at the size of the vote and then a huge cheer. Majority in just a few months goes from 2 to 22,000.
What a party afterwards with Screaming Lord Sutch and his band providing the entertainment.
The tone and content of their social media, combined with the places Sunak is going in the final days tells us everything we need to know about the overall canvass return that you and others are sending into them.
It is absolutely possible that those undecided Tory last time voters will go out and vote Tory after all. Or they could stay at home as they did in 1997. Or they could go "fuck it" and join the slide away. We just don't know.
Psychology comes into play. Its very hard to make a final break for something against the wisdom of the crowd. The final Tory pitch isn't "we want to do x", its "ignore the crowd going that way, come this way". That is a difficult thing to persuade people to do.
How quickly they recover is partly to do with them and how they reshape, but mostly to do with Starmer in power. He doesn’t have the freedom to act that Blair had, there’s bad news to come, and we certainly aren’t in for strong growth any time soon.
At this stage, forecasting 2029 is a mug’s game. It might be a political sea change, or we might be back to the 70s.
But for now, what matters is what the new Government does from Friday morning. There’s a lot in the in-tray. I am quite interested in a “first Tory lead” market after the election, because I suspect it will be the Autumn and I bet I’ll get good odds.
I fully expect them to fluff it but I hope I’m wrong.
If you believe undecideds are extremely high then laying turnout would be the best bet.
Biden 2.62-2.66
Harris 3.65-3.7
Very easy to get carried away - absolutely. I am 100% talking up my chances because thats what you do. I'm 100% talking up the candidates who won from 3rd and even 4th. But I'm also rooted in reality and know that its a stretch for me. But for others in the blue wall?
Here's the thing. We know the game is on because (a) Sunak is both campaigning in seats they hold with whopping majorities and pumping out "If you vote LibDem Starmer will eat your puppy" Facebook ads, and (b) Davey is pushing out from the initial target seats into the longer list of targets.
We know there could be a LD surge because everyone can see it. Including the Tories. It isn't candidatitis if its validated by data from pollsters and both parties. May not happen. But we're less than 24 hours from the poll and I think we're going to surprise a lot of people on the upside.
Welcome
@ToryJim
@BartholomewRoberts
@Leon (?)
Any others?
Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
Ed Davey would be disappointed in you 😏
This, I believe, is the main reason for Kamala Harris' shortening price, since she would automatically become acting POTUS if/when Biden resigns which puts her in the driving seat to win the November election in her own right, although she faces potentially strong opposition.
An interesting prospect for me would be to LAY Trump on the exchange against him being returned to the White House. With all his own problems and pitched againt someone much younger and at least as intellectually articulate andcapable, I fail to see how he merits his current short odds-on probability of winning such a contest.
In seeming to go comparatively easy against his struggling opponent in last week's debate, Trump seemed to me to be accepting that his best shot of once again becoming POTUS was by ensuring that Biden is selected as the Democrats' nominee which now appears very unlikely.
I think the WH and the Bidens really, really tried to dig their heels in over the weekend, but there is now an air of panic growing. Biden is coming out with more feeble excuses. The WH aren’t even trying to spin it much anymore. And the Democratic establishment have gone very quiet.
You might, but plenty don't. Sorry activists.
Other than the prospect of them holding on through the middle in Bicester & Woodstock or in Didcot & Wantage, their best prospect is Witney.
Although until the votes are counted, they could hold on everywhere out of a fortunate distribution of votes of course, or a late softening towards them (I will never count the chickens before they're hatched and Lib Dems have scars on their backs from hope in the past).
I understand that Labour have been concerned in Banbury that it's proving to have a resilient Tory share (and the campaign visits from both Starmer and Sunak recently indicate that both think it's still in the fight), but I think Labour have got it there - albeit from a bit of a distance and with minimal direct knowledge of that constituency.
Witney, though, always looked the hardest nut to crack and at the start of the campaign, I assumed it'd stay blue but with a decent Lib Dem advance. However, virtually everything seems to have broken ideally for Charlie Maynard and it seems to be genuinely in the balance (as per the campaign visits by Sunak and Davey - they both seem to think it's gettable by either).
Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.
The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.
The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.
The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.
The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.