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This is bad for Badenoch – politicalbetting.com

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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,329

    kinabalu said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    But it was Brexit that delivered the party into the clutches of Johnson.
    Only because of Labour's opposition to Theresa May's deal.
    Not just labour - also the Tory Europhiles. Basically anyone who didn't like the outcome of the referendum and sought to overturn it.
    All of us Brexit sceptics are guilty, but then if Mrs May had put together a less "Brexit is Brexit" strategy perhaps we would have had something to hold onto whilst Brexit was "done".
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,037

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
    Most of my friends and family , unlike me, voted to leave. They are very pleased we are no more part of the EU which is what they wanted. Aside from sovereignty issues, one obvious benefit is that we are not sending money (it matters not what the actual sum is) to the EU. I was a pragmatic only Remainer and continue to be bewildered as to the extent of some Remainers' emotional attachment to the EU and wonder what is behind this.
    They (and their opinions) were scorned. They were rejected - and they can't accept it.

    Hell hath no fury like a lover Remainer scorned.

    But while they're sitting plotting their revenge, searching their ex's social media keeping tabs on them, the rest of the world has calmly and quietly moved on.
    I honestly don't think it's that. I think it's a deep down dislike for their own country and they (perhaps unconsciously) support any way of diluting it. I think it's a disapproval of the nation state system over some sort of global utopia.
    In intention, at any rate, the English intelligentsia are Europeanized. They take their cookery from Paris and their opinions from Moscow. In the general patriotism of the country they form a sort of island of dissident thought. England is perhaps the only great country whose intellectuals are ashamed of their own nationality. In left-wing circles it is always felt that there is something slightly disgraceful in being an Englishman and that it is a duty to snigger at every English institution, from horse racing to suet puddings. It is a strange fact, but it is unquestionably true that almost any English intellectual would feel more ashamed of standing to attention during ‘God Save the King’ than of stealing from a poor box.
    It's quite niteresting to consider which parts of that quote have stood the test of time.

    "They take their cookery from Paris" feels very last century.
  • ChristopherChristopher Posts: 91
    theakes said:

    There is NO swing back to the Cons, Anything is well within the margin of error. What they should be doing is laying back and thinking of England.

    The betting markets arent showing it much yet and i presume there are Tories with insider info on the polls making sneaky bets.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,541

    Stocky said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
    Most of my friends and family , unlike me, voted to leave. They are very pleased we are no more part of the EU which is what they wanted. Aside from sovereignty issues, one obvious benefit is that we are not sending money (it matters not what the actual sum is) to the EU. I was a pragmatic only Remainer and continue to be bewildered as to the extent of some Remainers' emotional attachment to the EU and wonder what is behind this.
    They (and their opinions) were scorned. They were rejected - and they can't accept it.

    Hell hath no fury like a lover Remainer scorned.

    But while they're sitting plotting their revenge, searching their ex's social media keeping tabs on them, the rest of the world has calmly and quietly moved on.
    They've also been proved right (well, some of them). The country is worse off due to Brexit. It need not have been, but it is.

    It's quite funny really: some Brexiteers refuse to see any of the damage Brexit has caused, whilst others don't give a damn about the damage.
    What damage?
    This is not exhaustive:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit

    (Yes, I know it's wiki...)
    I refer you to the first section of the Talk page.
  • johntjohnt Posts: 166
    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    For many people, there is a steady stream of inconveniences resulting from Brexit.

    In the case of my missus, the latest wheeze is labels, sticky labels that are used for labelling sample vials at her NHS lab. The ones they use are robust, waterproof, have the correct information and have proved themselves over time. They imported from the Netherlands, and the latest batch has been stuck in customs for the last month or so. In desperation, the Dutch supplier has been rerouting labels intended for other labs are are already in the UK, but this can only be a stopgap measure. If they don't get those labels soon, they simply won't be able to continue cancer testing. It's a completely absurd situation.
    Does that not just pose the question of who ever thought it was sensible to buy labels from overseas? If that ever made economic sense then there’s something fundamentally wrong. Hence Brexit to force the issue. Or is label making a specialist art only found in the Netherlands?
    Not sure anyone is stopping you setting up a factory producing labels and supplying the UK. Thing is with the economies of scale and the cost of equipment that will probably make the UK labels hugely expensive. And in a nutshell you have demonstrated why the brexiteers are so out of touch with the real world.
    They simply have no comprehension of the way global integrated supply chains work and in their desire to reinvent 1980 have done generational damage to the UK economy. It is like trying to recreate post war Eastern Europe but in a country of 70 million. It is delusional.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,082

    kinabalu said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    But it was Brexit that delivered the party into the clutches of Johnson.
    Only because of Labour's opposition to Theresa May's deal.
    Not just labour - also the Tory Europhiles. Basically anyone who didn't like the outcome of the referendum and sought to overturn it.
    And the ERG.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,677

    kinabalu said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    But it was Brexit that delivered the party into the clutches of Johnson.
    Only because of Labour's opposition to Theresa May's deal.
    Theresa May's deal at the time looked awful. With the benefit of hindsight over Johnson's "oven ready for the microwave" dog's breakfast, it was an error not to support it.

    I don't believe the previously Euro Federalist William Glenn was an overwhelming advocate at the time.
    It's curious how remaining in the Customs Union was regarded as heresy and betrayal at the time. Now the idea has gone mainstream - almost everyone is saying it could be a good long-term aspiration.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 963
    Last minute move from Labour to reform.

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (-3)
    CON: 18% (=)
    RFM: 17% (+3)
    LDM: 11% (-1)
    GRN: 7% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (+1)

    Via
    @Survation
    📞, 26 Jun - 2 Jul.
    Changes w/ 21-25 Jun.

    I think it will continue to election day itself.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,329

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    Boris Johnson said last night that you need to vote Conservative because"Putinista" Starmer is an EU traitor to Johnson's Brexit legacy and a traitor to Johnson's Ukraine legacy.

    You once exclaimed Boris Johnson is the "greatest Prime Minister". Why are you disregarding his (self-proclaimed last evening) astonishingly brilliant legacy?
    I never said that, I said at the time (pre-partygate) he was one of the better Prime Ministers of my lifetime, but that it was a low bar, which he was.

    I also said it was time for him to go well before he did. I also stopped supporting him and his party well before he left.

    I make my own opinions, I am happy to reject anyone else's thoughts, including my own of the past as I am quite prepared to change my mind if the facts change.
    Fair enough.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    biggles said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
    Yes! We are the centre. Everyone else is diverging from us... "Fog in Channel, Continent cut off" still lives :D
    Eh? Oh ok. You want to call me a little englander. Carry on. Those arguments don’t really matter any more. We have left and are never going back.
    Fine by me.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,963

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    I don't think they have moved on.

    The referendum should have put a line under the thorny issue of whether we should be part of the EU project or sit it out. It has put a line for me but obviously not for others.

    It's conveniently forgotten that Con policy was to stay in the EU and if there is blame it should be towards the MPs who voted for the referendum in the first place - which the vast majority did across party (with the notable exception of the SNP).
    It has put a line under it. We're out.

    Neither Starmer, nor Davey, nor anyone else is proposing to reverse it.

    ScottP, Beiberley and others may be banging on about it like Hiroo Onoda still fighting the war decades later, but the rest of the world has moved on.

    Starmer will have other priorities to deal with, using our sovereignty, than taking us back into Europe.
    Except that it simply becomes more and more apparent that Brexit was sold on a lie. That many of the promises were bogus.

    It destroyed trust and the legacy of that betrayed trust is still poisoning our politics. Tomorrow may be the start of the redress but it has been a long time coming.
    What lie?

    Vote Leave made key pledges as to what Brexit would mean, and it seems to me that all have been met.

    1: That we would take back control of our laws - Done.
    Don't like a law? You can now vote for a different party to change it.

    2: The we would take back control of our money - Done.
    Our money is no longer going to Brussels.

    3: That we would take back control of our borders - Done.
    Migration now happens under our own domestically set laws. Don't like it? Vote for a party to change it to one you do like.

    4: That we would be able to sign our own trade deals - Done
    We can now sign trade deals, and have done.

    What exactly was a lie?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,773

    carnforth said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    For many people, there is a steady stream of inconveniences resulting from Brexit.

    In the case of my missus, the latest wheeze is labels, sticky labels that are used for labelling sample vials at her NHS lab. The ones they use are robust, waterproof, have the correct information and have proved themselves over time. They imported from the Netherlands, and the latest batch has been stuck in customs for the last month or so. In desperation, the Dutch supplier has been rerouting labels intended for other labs are are already in the UK, but this can only be a stopgap measure. If they don't get those labels soon, they simply won't be able to continue cancer testing. It's a completely absurd situation.
    Does that not just pose the question of who ever thought it was sensible to buy labels from overseas? If that ever made economic sense then there’s something fundamentally wrong. Hence Brexit to force the issue. Or is label making a specialist art only found in the Netherlands?
    It's got to be one hell of a specialist label if "simply won't be able to continue cancer testing" is anything other than the worst hyperbole I've seen since 2016.
    It is a specialist label. That's how these things work! The labels have specific markings and are read by machines. You can't just stick a hand-written post-it on the vial.

    Honestly, some people seem to have no idea how the modern world actually functions.
    And they are the ones running the government.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,476
    carnforth said:

    Stocky said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
    Most of my friends and family , unlike me, voted to leave. They are very pleased we are no more part of the EU which is what they wanted. Aside from sovereignty issues, one obvious benefit is that we are not sending money (it matters not what the actual sum is) to the EU. I was a pragmatic only Remainer and continue to be bewildered as to the extent of some Remainers' emotional attachment to the EU and wonder what is behind this.
    They (and their opinions) were scorned. They were rejected - and they can't accept it.

    Hell hath no fury like a lover Remainer scorned.

    But while they're sitting plotting their revenge, searching their ex's social media keeping tabs on them, the rest of the world has calmly and quietly moved on.
    They've also been proved right (well, some of them). The country is worse off due to Brexit. It need not have been, but it is.

    It's quite funny really: some Brexiteers refuse to see any of the damage Brexit has caused, whilst others don't give a damn about the damage.
    What damage?
    This is not exhaustive:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit

    (Yes, I know it's wiki...)
    I refer you to the first section of the Talk page.
    And?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,281

    Survation Telephone Tracker for @GMB - Poll 4/4:

    LAB 38% (-3)
    CON 18% (-)
    REF 17% (+3)
    LD 11% (-1)
    GRE 7% (+2)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    OTH 6% (-1)

    F/w 26th June - 2nd July. Changes vs. 26th June 2024.

    https://x.com/Survation/status/1808427141400330357

    I am now more confident Labour will not exceed 40%.

    First 20pp lead for Labour in the final opinion polls for each firm.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,572

    Stocky said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
    Most of my friends and family , unlike me, voted to leave. They are very pleased we are no more part of the EU which is what they wanted. Aside from sovereignty issues, one obvious benefit is that we are not sending money (it matters not what the actual sum is) to the EU. I was a pragmatic only Remainer and continue to be bewildered as to the extent of some Remainers' emotional attachment to the EU and wonder what is behind this.
    They (and their opinions) were scorned. They were rejected - and they can't accept it.

    Hell hath no fury like a lover Remainer scorned.

    But while they're sitting plotting their revenge, searching their ex's social media keeping tabs on them, the rest of the world has calmly and quietly moved on.
    The world has not moved on. The Tories are going to be delivered a crushing defeat as a direct result of Brexit.

    Not just because of the destructive folly of the policy itself, but also because of the incoherent populism that it catalysed.

    Tommoow night we will see that revenge of Remainers served cold.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,943
    Nunu5 said:

    Last minute move from Labour to reform.

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (-3)
    CON: 18% (=)
    RFM: 17% (+3)
    LDM: 11% (-1)
    GRN: 7% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (+1)

    Via
    @Survation
    📞, 26 Jun - 2 Jul.
    Changes w/ 21-25 Jun.

    I think it will continue to election day itself.

    Blimey.

    But are 7% of voters really going to be going Green tomorrow?
    The SNP mini-surge looks real now, across a few pollsters and the Scottish poll.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956

    https://x.com/survation/status/1808427141400330357

    Survation Telephone Tracker for @GMB

    LAB 38% (-3)
    CON 18% (-)
    REF 17% (+3)
    LD 11% (-1)
    GRE 7% (+2)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    OTH 6% (-1)

    F/w 26th June - 2nd July. Changes vs. 26th June 2024.

    If thats the result it would likely be tories less than 59 seats. But generally if you look back to 1997 the tories final poll is 3 to 4% above their lowest share.
    You're not wrong Chritopher, these polling figures are about the worst we've seen throughout the campaingn - certainly in terms of Baxterised seat numbers which work out as follows:

    Labour ... 469
    Con ... 56
    Reform ... 9
    Lib Dems ... 75
    Greens ... 3
    SNP ... 15
    Others ... 5
    N.I. ... 18
    Total ... 650

    The 3% increase in Reform's share of the vote since Survation's previous surveyg shows just how desparately damaging this is for the Tories.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,058
    a

    carnforth said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    For many people, there is a steady stream of inconveniences resulting from Brexit.

    In the case of my missus, the latest wheeze is labels, sticky labels that are used for labelling sample vials at her NHS lab. The ones they use are robust, waterproof, have the correct information and have proved themselves over time. They imported from the Netherlands, and the latest batch has been stuck in customs for the last month or so. In desperation, the Dutch supplier has been rerouting labels intended for other labs are are already in the UK, but this can only be a stopgap measure. If they don't get those labels soon, they simply won't be able to continue cancer testing. It's a completely absurd situation.
    Does that not just pose the question of who ever thought it was sensible to buy labels from overseas? If that ever made economic sense then there’s something fundamentally wrong. Hence Brexit to force the issue. Or is label making a specialist art only found in the Netherlands?
    It's got to be one hell of a specialist label if "simply won't be able to continue cancer testing" is anything other than the worst hyperbole I've seen since 2016.
    It is a specialist label. That's how these things work! The labels have specific markings and are read by machines. You can't just stick a hand-written post-it on the vial.

    Honestly, some people seem to have no idea how the modern world actually functions.
    Technical question - has anyone looked at printing directly onto the phials? I've seen some really excellent systems that do a print/etch into the plastic. The result is completely indelible and very clear.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,963

    kinabalu said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    But it was Brexit that delivered the party into the clutches of Johnson.
    Only because of Labour's opposition to Theresa May's deal.
    Not just labour - also the Tory Europhiles. Basically anyone who didn't like the outcome of the referendum and sought to overturn it.
    All of us Brexit sceptics are guilty, but then if Mrs May had put together a less "Brexit is Brexit" strategy perhaps we would have had something to hold onto whilst Brexit was "done".
    How about holding on to a respect for democracy and acknowledging that we had voted to Leave?

    Bygones now but you could have done that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    That latter group being the authors of the fiendishly cunning argument that the benefit of Brexit is Brexit. It's a success by dint of it happening.

    I mean, c'mon. Lots of things happen in this world. Eg the zip went on my Blue Harbour chinos this morning.
    That’s where I am. Brexit is Brexit. That’s the benefit of Brexiting: Brexiting

    Brexit divided by Brexit equals Brexit
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,541

    carnforth said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    For many people, there is a steady stream of inconveniences resulting from Brexit.

    In the case of my missus, the latest wheeze is labels, sticky labels that are used for labelling sample vials at her NHS lab. The ones they use are robust, waterproof, have the correct information and have proved themselves over time. They imported from the Netherlands, and the latest batch has been stuck in customs for the last month or so. In desperation, the Dutch supplier has been rerouting labels intended for other labs are are already in the UK, but this can only be a stopgap measure. If they don't get those labels soon, they simply won't be able to continue cancer testing. It's a completely absurd situation.
    Does that not just pose the question of who ever thought it was sensible to buy labels from overseas? If that ever made economic sense then there’s something fundamentally wrong. Hence Brexit to force the issue. Or is label making a specialist art only found in the Netherlands?
    It's got to be one hell of a specialist label if "simply won't be able to continue cancer testing" is anything other than the worst hyperbole I've seen since 2016.
    It is a specialist label. That's how these things work! The labels have specific markings and are read by machines. You can't just stick a hand-written post-it on the vial.

    Honestly, some people seem to have no idea how the modern world actually functions.

    Edit: And that, by the way, is just one example. Every day seems to bring some other Brexit-related hassle for which some sort of workaround has to be found. And that all ends up costing money.
    Do you think cancer testing would stop if the factory in the Netherlands burned down, or do you think a solution would be found?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Nunu5 said:

    Last minute move from Labour to reform.

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (-3)
    CON: 18% (=)
    RFM: 17% (+3)
    LDM: 11% (-1)
    GRN: 7% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (+1)

    Via
    @Survation
    📞, 26 Jun - 2 Jul.
    Changes w/ 21-25 Jun.

    I think it will continue to election day itself.

    C’mon BIG NIGE
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    That latter group being the authors of the fiendishly cunning argument that the benefit of Brexit is Brexit. It's a success by dint of it happening.

    I mean, c'mon. Lots of things happen in this world. Eg the zip went on my Blue Harbour chinos this morning.
    That’s where I am. Brexit is Brexit. That’s the benefit of Brexiting: Brexiting

    Brexit divided by Brexit equals Brexit
    Brexit divided by brexit equals 1, the number of brain cells brexiteers have.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,943

    https://x.com/survation/status/1808427141400330357

    Survation Telephone Tracker for @GMB

    LAB 38% (-3)
    CON 18% (-)
    REF 17% (+3)
    LD 11% (-1)
    GRE 7% (+2)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    OTH 6% (-1)

    F/w 26th June - 2nd July. Changes vs. 26th June 2024.

    If thats the result it would likely be tories less than 59 seats. But generally if you look back to 1997 the tories final poll is 3 to 4% above their lowest share.
    You're not wrong Chritopher, these polling figures are about the worst we've seen throughout the campaingn - certainly in terms of Baxterised seat numbers which work out as follows:

    Labour ... 469
    Con ... 56
    Reform ... 9
    Lib Dems ... 75
    Greens ... 3
    SNP ... 15
    Others ... 5
    N.I. ... 18
    Total ... 650

    The 3% increase in Reform's share of the vote since Survation's previous surveyg shows just how desparately damaging this is for the Tories.

    Once again I am asking people to stop Baxtering all the polls.

    [Photo of Bernie Sanders if I had more than 1 pic per day allowance]
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,476

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts
    Westminster voting intention

    LAB: 40% (-1)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    REF: 16% (-1)
    LDEM: 11% (-1)
    GRN: 6% (+1)

    via @techneUK, 28 Jun - 02 Jul

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1808377633240936922?t=qn4zH_UhqMWsRNkPlri8_Q&s=19

    Baxterising these figures produces the following seats forecast:

    Labour .......... 467
    Cons ............ 66
    LibDems ............70
    Reform ............. 6
    Greens ............... 3
    SNP .................. 15
    Others ............... 5
    N.I. .................. 18
    Toral: ............... 650

    Labour Maj: 284

    Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.

    It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.

    The real disaster there for the Tories would be the LDs in second place by seat count, therefore being the official Opposition with all the funding and Parliamentary time that comes from that position.
    Ed will jump off the Shard if his party comes second!
    Is he doing the Three Peaks Challenge today?
    He is walking the pennine way this weekend and the coast to coast straight after that.
    I've heard of someone walking the Pennine Way north, reaching Keld (where it meets the C2C); then walking along the C2C to the east coast, then back along it to the west coast, then back to Keld, and north to finish the Pennine Way.

    That's one of the problems with these charity endeavours: you have to do ever more extreme things as achievements such as "walking the Pennine Way" become commonplace.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,387

    a

    carnforth said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    For many people, there is a steady stream of inconveniences resulting from Brexit.

    In the case of my missus, the latest wheeze is labels, sticky labels that are used for labelling sample vials at her NHS lab. The ones they use are robust, waterproof, have the correct information and have proved themselves over time. They imported from the Netherlands, and the latest batch has been stuck in customs for the last month or so. In desperation, the Dutch supplier has been rerouting labels intended for other labs are are already in the UK, but this can only be a stopgap measure. If they don't get those labels soon, they simply won't be able to continue cancer testing. It's a completely absurd situation.
    Does that not just pose the question of who ever thought it was sensible to buy labels from overseas? If that ever made economic sense then there’s something fundamentally wrong. Hence Brexit to force the issue. Or is label making a specialist art only found in the Netherlands?
    It's got to be one hell of a specialist label if "simply won't be able to continue cancer testing" is anything other than the worst hyperbole I've seen since 2016.
    It is a specialist label. That's how these things work! The labels have specific markings and are read by machines. You can't just stick a hand-written post-it on the vial.

    Honestly, some people seem to have no idea how the modern world actually functions.
    Technical question - has anyone looked at printing directly onto the phials? I've seen some really excellent systems that do a print/etch into the plastic. The result is completely indelible and very clear.
    I've no idea (it's my missus's place of work). I just have to suffer the exasperation when she gets home. Perhaps that might be a possibility in the future.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,639

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    I don't think they have moved on.

    The referendum should have put a line under the thorny issue of whether we should be part of the EU project or sit it out. It has put a line for me but obviously not for others.

    It's conveniently forgotten that Con policy was to stay in the EU and if there is blame it should be towards the MPs who voted for the referendum in the first place - which the vast majority did across party (with the notable exception of the SNP).
    It has put a line under it. We're out.

    Neither Starmer, nor Davey, nor anyone else is proposing to reverse it.

    ScottP, Beiberley and others may be banging on about it like Hiroo Onoda still fighting the war decades later, but the rest of the world has moved on.

    Starmer will have other priorities to deal with, using our sovereignty, than taking us back into Europe.
    It's going to be great. Rejoin starts in earnest on Friday.

    Democracies can change their mind. On top of us bitter Remoaners, sector after sector now feels betrayed. Farmers feel betrayed. Fishermen feel betrayed. The young feel betrayed. Small businesses feel betrayed. Big business feels betrayed. Food is more expensive. Fresh food doesn't last as long. There is less choice on our shelves. There are medicine shortages. There are labour shortages. We are second class citizens on our own continent. NHS waiting lists haven't come down. Immigration hasn't come down. The only sectors where wages have risen is where we've engineered labour shortages. We don't have amazing trade deals with the rest of the world to replace the advantages of the Single Market. The German car manufacturers didn't rescue us. It wasn't the easiest trade deal in history. We aren't part of a continent-wide free trade zone. We haven't retained free movement. We didn't hold all the cards. We couldn't have our cake and eat it.

    None of this was promised by the Lyin' Leave campaigns.

    Polling shows strong majorities in every age group under 65 pretty much for the view that Brexit has been an error.

    We'll be back in once the Boomers have gone. Schengen, the Euro, the whole shebang. Brexit will be a two decade aberration, a collective hiccup, an anomaly delivered on lies, fevered ideological wishful thinking and nostalgia.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Dopermean said:

    TimS said:

    Flanner said:

    The Techne UK poll figures appearing at 7.42 a.m. at the end of the previous thread and therefore not really picked up by PBers showed the following:Labour lead at 19pts
    Westminster voting intention

    LAB: 40% (-1)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    REF: 16% (-1)
    LDEM: 11% (-1)
    GRN: 6% (+1)

    via @techneUK, 28 Jun - 02 Jul

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1808377633240936922?t=qn4zH_UhqMWsRNkPlri8_Q&s=19

    Baxterising these figures produces the following seats forecast:

    Labour .......... 467
    Cons ............ 66
    LibDems ............70
    Reform ............. 6
    Greens ............... 3
    SNP .................. 15
    Others ............... 5
    N.I. .................. 18
    Toral: ............... 650

    Labour Maj: 284

    Such an outcome would remain disastrous for the Tories (who are still surprisingly shown as being behind the LibDems). despite the 3% or so recent improvement in their share of the vote as disclosded by a number of polls over the past 7-10 days.

    It is to be hoped that ElectoralCalculus has developed a highly effective and precise model for interpreting polling results. it has, after, all been in this business for a very long time across a number of General Elections and has therefore had plenty of opportunity to iron out any wrinkles and to improve its systems so as to achieve greater accuracy. For some, this will probably be considered the "last chance saloon" both for EC as well as for the polling industry to get it right.

    It does seem startling that 21% gets the Tories only 66 seats while 11% gets the LDs 70.

    In 2010 LDs got 23% and only 57 seats, so I can believe the Tory figure. It's the LDs 70 for 11% that looks a big stretch; their vote will have to be super-efficient for that.
    In my bit of the Blue Wall, LD candidates who started this election assuming they'd be gallant losers are now pinching themselves as canvass returns and chats in pubs tell them there's a real prospect of becoming MPs. No idea how many of them really believe that - but, on today's evidence, the Tories will lose every single seat in the county and LD "voting efficiency" has been transformed.

    There are many reasons the LDs may not sweep up as many local seats as they'd like (such as the unprecedented ferocity of last-minute Labour and Tory campaigning against the LDs, and huge lack of clarity about who'll actually cast a vote). But results in 2010 (or 2019) really aren't among them.
    This is a classic case of candidatitis. It happens in every election.

    Many politicians are by nature optimists. While out canvassing they take note of all the people greeting them with smiles and saying they absolutely will vote Lib Dem, and they skirt over the dozens of houses where "nobody was in", including those where a curtain definitely twitched or a dog barked but nobody answered.

    They start putting two and two together and making five. Their canvassing experience tells them that about 50% of everyone they speak to is voting Lib Dem. They get excited. They start to believe. They are then brought crashing down to earth on election night.

    This is particularly acute in seats that are not being aggressively targeted because there isn't the more experienced party machine around to temper expectations and do the proper adjustments to canvas returns.
    Lib Dem polling has been absolutely flat, either their % is going to be way higher than expected or seat numbers will be lower than predicted. Doesn;t seem plausible they can get 60-70 seats from 10-11% across mainland UK.
    Agreed. Targeting may be good, but not that good.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,963
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    For many people, there is a steady stream of inconveniences resulting from Brexit.

    In the case of my missus, the latest wheeze is labels, sticky labels that are used for labelling sample vials at her NHS lab. The ones they use are robust, waterproof, have the correct information and have proved themselves over time. They imported from the Netherlands, and the latest batch has been stuck in customs for the last month or so. In desperation, the Dutch supplier has been rerouting labels intended for other labs are are already in the UK, but this can only be a stopgap measure. If they don't get those labels soon, they simply won't be able to continue cancer testing. It's a completely absurd situation.
    Does that not just pose the question of who ever thought it was sensible to buy labels from overseas? If that ever made economic sense then there’s something fundamentally wrong. Hence Brexit to force the issue. Or is label making a specialist art only found in the Netherlands?
    It's got to be one hell of a specialist label if "simply won't be able to continue cancer testing" is anything other than the worst hyperbole I've seen since 2016.
    It is a specialist label. That's how these things work! The labels have specific markings and are read by machines. You can't just stick a hand-written post-it on the vial.

    Honestly, some people seem to have no idea how the modern world actually functions.

    Edit: And that, by the way, is just one example. Every day seems to bring some other Brexit-related hassle for which some sort of workaround has to be found. And that all ends up costing money.
    Do you think cancer testing would stop if the factory in the Netherlands burned down, or do you think a solution would be found?
    Indeed.

    Its probably got bugger all to do with Brexit.

    People with an axe to grind or excuses to make both like to reach for the same thing.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,565

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    That latter group being the authors of the fiendishly cunning argument that the benefit of Brexit is Brexit. It's a success by dint of it happening.

    I mean, c'mon. Lots of things happen in this world. Eg the zip went on my Blue Harbour chinos this morning.
    That’s where I am. Brexit is Brexit. That’s the benefit of Brexiting: Brexiting

    Brexit divided by Brexit equals Brexit
    Brexit divided by brexit equals 1, the number of brain cells brexiteers have.
    How much happier would you be if Brexit had resulted in the mass unemployment you predicted ?
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
    Most of my friends and family , unlike me, voted to leave. They are very pleased we are no more part of the EU which is what they wanted. Aside from sovereignty issues, one obvious benefit is that we are not sending money (it matters not what the actual sum is) to the EU. I was a pragmatic only Remainer and continue to be bewildered as to the extent of some Remainers' emotional attachment to the EU and wonder what is behind this.
    They (and their opinions) were scorned. They were rejected - and they can't accept it.

    Hell hath no fury like a lover Remainer scorned.

    But while they're sitting plotting their revenge, searching their ex's social media keeping tabs on them, the rest of the world has calmly and quietly moved on.
    I honestly don't think it's that. I think it's a deep down dislike for their own country and they (perhaps unconsciously) support any way of diluting it. I think it's a disapproval of the nation state system over some sort of global utopia.
    In intention, at any rate, the English intelligentsia are Europeanized. They take their cookery from Paris and their opinions from Moscow. In the general patriotism of the country they form a sort of island of dissident thought. England is perhaps the only great country whose intellectuals are ashamed of their own nationality. In left-wing circles it is always felt that there is something slightly disgraceful in being an Englishman and that it is a duty to snigger at every English institution, from horse racing to suet puddings. It is a strange fact, but it is unquestionably true that almost any English intellectual would feel more ashamed of standing to attention during ‘God Save the King’ than of stealing from a poor box.
    Overrated Old Etonian hackery. Honestly that could be the leader from last week's Spectator (now gstk Vs gstq is no longer a giveaway). Typically non specific, but let's say he has Auden in his sights. That's Auden who as a master at Sedbergh (public school) wrote a splendid poem celebrating victory in a rugby match over a neighbouring school. Hardly sniggering at English institutions.

    One reason for thinking it's Auden he is after is that Auden was you know, one of those, and Orwell didn't approve of that sort of thing at all. And you can't excuse him as being "of his time" without conceding that he was a dull and incurious bigot. Plenty of those awful intellectuals with their fancy Paris cooking were questioning the validity of the law against homosexuality, when they were not mocking suet pudding.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,541

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    For many people, there is a steady stream of inconveniences resulting from Brexit.

    In the case of my missus, the latest wheeze is labels, sticky labels that are used for labelling sample vials at her NHS lab. The ones they use are robust, waterproof, have the correct information and have proved themselves over time. They imported from the Netherlands, and the latest batch has been stuck in customs for the last month or so. In desperation, the Dutch supplier has been rerouting labels intended for other labs are are already in the UK, but this can only be a stopgap measure. If they don't get those labels soon, they simply won't be able to continue cancer testing. It's a completely absurd situation.
    Does that not just pose the question of who ever thought it was sensible to buy labels from overseas? If that ever made economic sense then there’s something fundamentally wrong. Hence Brexit to force the issue. Or is label making a specialist art only found in the Netherlands?
    It's got to be one hell of a specialist label if "simply won't be able to continue cancer testing" is anything other than the worst hyperbole I've seen since 2016.
    It is a specialist label. That's how these things work! The labels have specific markings and are read by machines. You can't just stick a hand-written post-it on the vial.

    Honestly, some people seem to have no idea how the modern world actually functions.

    Edit: And that, by the way, is just one example. Every day seems to bring some other Brexit-related hassle for which some sort of workaround has to be found. And that all ends up costing money.
    Do you think cancer testing would stop if the factory in the Netherlands burned down, or do you think a solution would be found?
    Indeed.

    Its probably got bugger all to do with Brexit.

    People with an axe to grind or excuses to make both like to reach for the same thing.
    Well, if the "stuck in customs" thing is actually true, then it kind of is due to Brexit.

    My point is just that there will be (or should be) some redundancy here, for such a serious issue.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,963

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    I don't think they have moved on.

    The referendum should have put a line under the thorny issue of whether we should be part of the EU project or sit it out. It has put a line for me but obviously not for others.

    It's conveniently forgotten that Con policy was to stay in the EU and if there is blame it should be towards the MPs who voted for the referendum in the first place - which the vast majority did across party (with the notable exception of the SNP).
    It has put a line under it. We're out.

    Neither Starmer, nor Davey, nor anyone else is proposing to reverse it.

    ScottP, Beiberley and others may be banging on about it like Hiroo Onoda still fighting the war decades later, but the rest of the world has moved on.

    Starmer will have other priorities to deal with, using our sovereignty, than taking us back into Europe.
    It's going to be great. Rejoin starts in earnest on Friday.

    Democracies can change their mind. On top of us bitter Remoaners, sector after sector now feels betrayed. Farmers feel betrayed. Fishermen feel betrayed. The young feel betrayed. Small businesses feel betrayed. Big business feels betrayed. Food is more expensive. Fresh food doesn't last as long. There is less choice on our shelves. There are medicine shortages. There are labour shortages. We are second class citizens on our own continent. NHS waiting lists haven't come down. Immigration hasn't come down. The only sectors where wages have risen is where we've engineered labour shortages. We don't have amazing trade deals with the rest of the world to replace the advantages of the Single Market. The German car manufacturers didn't rescue us. It wasn't the easiest trade deal in history. We aren't part of a continent-wide free trade zone. We haven't retained free movement. We didn't hold all the cards. We couldn't have our cake and eat it.

    None of this was promised by the Lyin' Leave campaigns.

    Polling shows strong majorities in every age group under 65 pretty much for the view that Brexit has been an error.

    We'll be back in once the Boomers have gone. Schengen, the Euro, the whole shebang. Brexit will be a two decade aberration, a collective hiccup, an anomaly delivered on lies, fevered ideological wishful thinking and nostalgia.
    Meanwhile back in the real world people have moved on, Starmer, Davey, everyone serious has moved on.

    And I hate to tell you but only push polling prompting people says that Brexit is even anything anyone is thinking about.

    Back in the real world, when it comes to polling people aren't even bringing up Europe or any related issues as a concern unprompted at all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    TimS said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Last minute move from Labour to reform.

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (-3)
    CON: 18% (=)
    RFM: 17% (+3)
    LDM: 11% (-1)
    GRN: 7% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (+1)

    Via
    @Survation
    📞, 26 Jun - 2 Jul.
    Changes w/ 21-25 Jun.

    I think it will continue to election day itself.

    Blimey.

    But are 7% of voters really going to be going Green tomorrow?
    The SNP mini-surge looks real now, across a few pollsters and the Scottish poll.
    I'm always surprised by the Green share. I assumed they'd get 0 seats, but they seem very confident of at least 2.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,963
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    For many people, there is a steady stream of inconveniences resulting from Brexit.

    In the case of my missus, the latest wheeze is labels, sticky labels that are used for labelling sample vials at her NHS lab. The ones they use are robust, waterproof, have the correct information and have proved themselves over time. They imported from the Netherlands, and the latest batch has been stuck in customs for the last month or so. In desperation, the Dutch supplier has been rerouting labels intended for other labs are are already in the UK, but this can only be a stopgap measure. If they don't get those labels soon, they simply won't be able to continue cancer testing. It's a completely absurd situation.
    Does that not just pose the question of who ever thought it was sensible to buy labels from overseas? If that ever made economic sense then there’s something fundamentally wrong. Hence Brexit to force the issue. Or is label making a specialist art only found in the Netherlands?
    It's got to be one hell of a specialist label if "simply won't be able to continue cancer testing" is anything other than the worst hyperbole I've seen since 2016.
    It is a specialist label. That's how these things work! The labels have specific markings and are read by machines. You can't just stick a hand-written post-it on the vial.

    Honestly, some people seem to have no idea how the modern world actually functions.

    Edit: And that, by the way, is just one example. Every day seems to bring some other Brexit-related hassle for which some sort of workaround has to be found. And that all ends up costing money.
    Do you think cancer testing would stop if the factory in the Netherlands burned down, or do you think a solution would be found?
    Indeed.

    Its probably got bugger all to do with Brexit.

    People with an axe to grind or excuses to make both like to reach for the same thing.
    Well, if the "stuck in customs" thing is actually true, then it kind of is due to Brexit.

    My point is just that there will be (or should be) some redundancy here, for such a serious issue.
    That's a big if.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,565
    MattW said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
    Most of my friends and family , unlike me, voted to leave. They are very pleased we are no more part of the EU which is what they wanted. Aside from sovereignty issues, one obvious benefit is that we are not sending money (it matters not what the actual sum is) to the EU. I was a pragmatic only Remainer and continue to be bewildered as to the extent of some Remainers' emotional attachment to the EU and wonder what is behind this.
    They (and their opinions) were scorned. They were rejected - and they can't accept it.

    Hell hath no fury like a lover Remainer scorned.

    But while they're sitting plotting their revenge, searching their ex's social media keeping tabs on them, the rest of the world has calmly and quietly moved on.
    I honestly don't think it's that. I think it's a deep down dislike for their own country and they (perhaps unconsciously) support any way of diluting it. I think it's a disapproval of the nation state system over some sort of global utopia.
    In intention, at any rate, the English intelligentsia are Europeanized. They take their cookery from Paris and their opinions from Moscow. In the general patriotism of the country they form a sort of island of dissident thought. England is perhaps the only great country whose intellectuals are ashamed of their own nationality. In left-wing circles it is always felt that there is something slightly disgraceful in being an Englishman and that it is a duty to snigger at every English institution, from horse racing to suet puddings. It is a strange fact, but it is unquestionably true that almost any English intellectual would feel more ashamed of standing to attention during ‘God Save the King’ than of stealing from a poor box.
    It's quite niteresting to consider which parts of that quote have stood the test of time.

    "They take their cookery from Paris" feels very last century.
    The last sentence has become more precisely appropriate again.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437
    MattW said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
    Most of my friends and family , unlike me, voted to leave. They are very pleased we are no more part of the EU which is what they wanted. Aside from sovereignty issues, one obvious benefit is that we are not sending money (it matters not what the actual sum is) to the EU. I was a pragmatic only Remainer and continue to be bewildered as to the extent of some Remainers' emotional attachment to the EU and wonder what is behind this.
    They (and their opinions) were scorned. They were rejected - and they can't accept it.

    Hell hath no fury like a lover Remainer scorned.

    But while they're sitting plotting their revenge, searching their ex's social media keeping tabs on them, the rest of the world has calmly and quietly moved on.
    I honestly don't think it's that. I think it's a deep down dislike for their own country and they (perhaps unconsciously) support any way of diluting it. I think it's a disapproval of the nation state system over some sort of global utopia.
    In intention, at any rate, the English intelligentsia are Europeanized. They take their cookery from Paris and their opinions from Moscow. In the general patriotism of the country they form a sort of island of dissident thought. England is perhaps the only great country whose intellectuals are ashamed of their own nationality. In left-wing circles it is always felt that there is something slightly disgraceful in being an Englishman and that it is a duty to snigger at every English institution, from horse racing to suet puddings. It is a strange fact, but it is unquestionably true that almost any English intellectual would feel more ashamed of standing to attention during ‘God Save the King’ than of stealing from a poor box.
    It's quite niteresting to consider which parts of that quote have stood the test of time.

    "They take their cookery from Paris" feels very last century.
    Well, the very word "intellectual" is pretty old-fashioned - and opinions among Guardian readers now mirror more the loopier American universities than widely discredited Moscow. The bit of Orwell's quote, though, that still survives is "it is a duty to snigger at every English institution" - except the NHS, and that only when the government of the day can be accused of wrecking it. Which the Guardian-reading class has been doing more or less permanently since the NHS was founded, or at least since Bevin resigned from government in 1951 over charging for spectacles.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    I don't think they have moved on.

    The referendum should have put a line under the thorny issue of whether we should be part of the EU project or sit it out. It has put a line for me but obviously not for others.

    It's conveniently forgotten that Con policy was to stay in the EU and if there is blame it should be towards the MPs who voted for the referendum in the first place - which the vast majority did across party (with the notable exception of the SNP).
    It has put a line under it. We're out.

    Neither Starmer, nor Davey, nor anyone else is proposing to reverse it.

    ScottP, Beiberley and others may be banging on about it like Hiroo Onoda still fighting the war decades later, but the rest of the world has moved on.

    Starmer will have other priorities to deal with, using our sovereignty, than taking us back into Europe.
    Except that it simply becomes more and more apparent that Brexit was sold on a lie. That many of the promises were bogus.

    It destroyed trust and the legacy of that betrayed trust is still poisoning our politics. Tomorrow may be the start of the redress but it has been a long time coming.
    What lie?

    Vote Leave made key pledges as to what Brexit would mean, and it seems to me that all have been met.

    1: That we would take back control of our laws - Done.
    Don't like a law? You can now vote for a different party to change it.

    2: The we would take back control of our money - Done.
    Our money is no longer going to Brussels.

    3: That we would take back control of our borders - Done.
    Migration now happens under our own domestically set laws. Don't like it? Vote for a party to change it to one you do like.

    4: That we would be able to sign our own trade deals - Done
    We can now sign trade deals, and have done.

    What exactly was a lie?
    I do not know what you are drinking, but you should bottle it and sell it.

    1, 3 and 4 are fantasies and 2 was never an issue.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,773
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    For many people, there is a steady stream of inconveniences resulting from Brexit.

    In the case of my missus, the latest wheeze is labels, sticky labels that are used for labelling sample vials at her NHS lab. The ones they use are robust, waterproof, have the correct information and have proved themselves over time. They imported from the Netherlands, and the latest batch has been stuck in customs for the last month or so. In desperation, the Dutch supplier has been rerouting labels intended for other labs are are already in the UK, but this can only be a stopgap measure. If they don't get those labels soon, they simply won't be able to continue cancer testing. It's a completely absurd situation.
    Does that not just pose the question of who ever thought it was sensible to buy labels from overseas? If that ever made economic sense then there’s something fundamentally wrong. Hence Brexit to force the issue. Or is label making a specialist art only found in the Netherlands?
    It's got to be one hell of a specialist label if "simply won't be able to continue cancer testing" is anything other than the worst hyperbole I've seen since 2016.
    It is a specialist label. That's how these things work! The labels have specific markings and are read by machines. You can't just stick a hand-written post-it on the vial.

    Honestly, some people seem to have no idea how the modern world actually functions.

    Edit: And that, by the way, is just one example. Every day seems to bring some other Brexit-related hassle for which some sort of workaround has to be found. And that all ends up costing money.
    Do you think cancer testing would stop if the factory in the Netherlands burned down, or do you think a solution would be found?
    The interim solution would be to move stock between labs, which is already happening. The medium term solution would be searching for an alternative supplier, almost certainly also abroad. The long term solution would be to repair the Dutch factory.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,476
    Two German spy satellites have failed in orbit:

    "Shockingly, the German publication says that its sources indicated OHB did not fully test the functionality and deployment of the satellite antennas on the ground. "

    https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/07/two-of-the-german-militarys-new-spy-satellites-appear-to-have-failed-in-orbit/
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,194
    nico679 said:

    Even if Labour get a big majority tomorrow it means zip for the next election .

    As we’ve seen from the Tories if you screw up it doesn’t matter how big your majority is.

    The key thing is...

    Does anyone really expect Starmer (and his mad successor and their mediocre successor) to screw up to the extent that Team 2019-24 have? Really?

    The reason that the Conservatives are heading for an unprecedented defeat is that they have been a unprecedented failure.
  • johntjohnt Posts: 166
    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
    Most of my friends and family , unlike me, voted to leave. They are very pleased we are no more part of the EU which is what they wanted. Aside from sovereignty issues, one obvious benefit is that we are not sending money (it matters not what the actual sum is) to the EU. I was a pragmatic only Remainer and continue to be bewildered as to the extent of some Remainers' emotional attachment to the EU and wonder what is behind this.
    They (and their opinions) were scorned. They were rejected - and they can't accept it.

    Hell hath no fury like a lover Remainer scorned.

    But while they're sitting plotting their revenge, searching their ex's social media keeping tabs on them, the rest of the world has calmly and quietly moved on.
    The world has not moved on. The Tories are going to be delivered a crushing defeat as a direct result of Brexit.

    Not just because of the destructive folly of the policy itself, but also because of the incoherent populism that it catalysed.

    Tommoow night we will see that revenge of Remainers served cold.
    I agree and I must admit that I find the complaints of leavers that everyone needs to just 'move on' increasingly tedious. We had to put up with decades of moaning and lies from brexiteers and yet now we have had brexit and it has failed they are endlessly telling everyone it is 'done' and we are not allowed to talk about it.
    For a significant majority of the young and those who work brexit is a real issue. They understand the damage it is doing to the economy and they resent their loss of freedom. I suggest that if it is not significantly unwound then Starmer may be about to start his only parliament as PM and Labour will be removed in 2029 for a party which is significantly more Euro friendly. The fact is that the UK is part of the international community, the policy of taking our ball away to play on our won will not last and the sooner that is accepted the better.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,773
    Stocky said:

    franklyn said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
    You really have no idea of the practical effects of Brexit
    Long queues at airports overseas for UK passport holders. Doesn't encourage business travel
    Difficulties and expense of importing foods from EU countries. Have you looked at the poor range of cheese in shops these days
    Pharmacies unable to access commonly used medicines, including those for serious medical conditions, because it's too complex to import pharmaceuticals from Europe. This really harms patients
    The list goes on, and it is difficult to think of a single positive.
    Jeez, not this again. I have flown to Europe dozens of times to various airports since Brexit and am yet to find a single queue. Either I have been extraordinarily lucky or some of these Brexit disadvantages are being imagined.

    A narrower choice of cheese - are you serious?
    In the words of Ayatollah Khomeini dismissing complaints of food shortages in Iran, we did not fight the revolution for watermelons.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited July 3

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.

    It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.

    I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,407
    Stocky said:

    franklyn said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
    You really have no idea of the practical effects of Brexit
    Long queues at airports overseas for UK passport holders. Doesn't encourage business travel
    Difficulties and expense of importing foods from EU countries. Have you looked at the poor range of cheese in shops these days
    Pharmacies unable to access commonly used medicines, including those for serious medical conditions, because it's too complex to import pharmaceuticals from Europe. This really harms patients
    The list goes on, and it is difficult to think of a single positive.
    Jeez, not this again. I have flown to Europe dozens of times to various airports since Brexit and am yet to find a single queue. Either I have been extraordinarily lucky or some of these Brexit disadvantages are being imagined.

    A narrower choice of cheese - are you serious?
    My experience also. Indeed I used to have to queue a lot more at Schipol when we were in the EU. Connections through Schipol have actually got easier over the last few years (though that may well be completely unconnected to Brexit of course).
  • johntjohnt Posts: 166
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    For many people, there is a steady stream of inconveniences resulting from Brexit.

    In the case of my missus, the latest wheeze is labels, sticky labels that are used for labelling sample vials at her NHS lab. The ones they use are robust, waterproof, have the correct information and have proved themselves over time. They imported from the Netherlands, and the latest batch has been stuck in customs for the last month or so. In desperation, the Dutch supplier has been rerouting labels intended for other labs are are already in the UK, but this can only be a stopgap measure. If they don't get those labels soon, they simply won't be able to continue cancer testing. It's a completely absurd situation.
    Does that not just pose the question of who ever thought it was sensible to buy labels from overseas? If that ever made economic sense then there’s something fundamentally wrong. Hence Brexit to force the issue. Or is label making a specialist art only found in the Netherlands?
    It's got to be one hell of a specialist label if "simply won't be able to continue cancer testing" is anything other than the worst hyperbole I've seen since 2016.
    It is a specialist label. That's how these things work! The labels have specific markings and are read by machines. You can't just stick a hand-written post-it on the vial.

    Honestly, some people seem to have no idea how the modern world actually functions.

    Edit: And that, by the way, is just one example. Every day seems to bring some other Brexit-related hassle for which some sort of workaround has to be found. And that all ends up costing money.
    Do you think cancer testing would stop if the factory in the Netherlands burned down, or do you think a solution would be found?
    I suspect a solution would be found which would increase the costs of the process and mean that fewer cancer tests would be possible and those which are done would be slower. If the objective of Brexit was to slow down medical treatment, drive up costs and ensure that people who could be saved die then I would suggest it is working perfectly.
    Was that the purpose of brexit, because I do not recall seeing that on the side of any bus?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,572
    Heathener said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.

    It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.

    I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
    It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,565

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
    Most of my friends and family , unlike me, voted to leave. They are very pleased we are no more part of the EU which is what they wanted. Aside from sovereignty issues, one obvious benefit is that we are not sending money (it matters not what the actual sum is) to the EU. I was a pragmatic only Remainer and continue to be bewildered as to the extent of some Remainers' emotional attachment to the EU and wonder what is behind this.
    They (and their opinions) were scorned. They were rejected - and they can't accept it.

    Hell hath no fury like a lover Remainer scorned.

    But while they're sitting plotting their revenge, searching their ex's social media keeping tabs on them, the rest of the world has calmly and quietly moved on.
    I honestly don't think it's that. I think it's a deep down dislike for their own country and they (perhaps unconsciously) support any way of diluting it. I think it's a disapproval of the nation state system over some sort of global utopia.
    In intention, at any rate, the English intelligentsia are Europeanized. They take their cookery from Paris and their opinions from Moscow. In the general patriotism of the country they form a sort of island of dissident thought. England is perhaps the only great country whose intellectuals are ashamed of their own nationality. In left-wing circles it is always felt that there is something slightly disgraceful in being an Englishman and that it is a duty to snigger at every English institution, from horse racing to suet puddings. It is a strange fact, but it is unquestionably true that almost any English intellectual would feel more ashamed of standing to attention during ‘God Save the King’ than of stealing from a poor box.
    Overrated Old Etonian hackery. Honestly that could be the leader from last week's Spectator (now gstk Vs gstq is no longer a giveaway). Typically non specific, but let's say he has Auden in his sights. That's Auden who as a master at Sedbergh (public school) wrote a splendid poem celebrating victory in a rugby match over a neighbouring school. Hardly sniggering at English institutions.

    One reason for thinking it's Auden he is after is that Auden was you know, one of those, and Orwell didn't approve of that sort of thing at all. And you can't excuse him as being "of his time" without conceding that he was a dull and incurious bigot. Plenty of those awful intellectuals with their fancy Paris cooking were questioning the validity of the law against homosexuality, when they were not mocking suet pudding.
    Yet Orwell is very widely known and very widely read.

    Whereas how many people have ever heard of Auden now ?
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    I don't think they have moved on.

    The referendum should have put a line under the thorny issue of whether we should be part of the EU project or sit it out. It has put a line for me but obviously not for others.

    It's conveniently forgotten that Con policy was to stay in the EU and if there is blame it should be towards the MPs who voted for the referendum in the first place - which the vast majority did across party (with the notable exception of the SNP).
    It has put a line under it. We're out.

    Neither Starmer, nor Davey, nor anyone else is proposing to reverse it.

    ScottP, Beiberley and others may be banging on about it like Hiroo Onoda still fighting the war decades later, but the rest of the world has moved on.

    Starmer will have other priorities to deal with, using our sovereignty, than taking us back into Europe.
    It's going to be great. Rejoin starts in earnest on Friday.

    Democracies can change their mind. On top of us bitter Remoaners, sector after sector now feels betrayed. Farmers feel betrayed. Fishermen feel betrayed. The young feel betrayed. Small businesses feel betrayed. Big business feels betrayed. Food is more expensive. Fresh food doesn't last as long. There is less choice on our shelves. There are medicine shortages. There are labour shortages. We are second class citizens on our own continent. NHS waiting lists haven't come down. Immigration hasn't come down. The only sectors where wages have risen is where we've engineered labour shortages. We don't have amazing trade deals with the rest of the world to replace the advantages of the Single Market. The German car manufacturers didn't rescue us. It wasn't the easiest trade deal in history. We aren't part of a continent-wide free trade zone. We haven't retained free movement. We didn't hold all the cards. We couldn't have our cake and eat it.

    None of this was promised by the Lyin' Leave campaigns.

    Polling shows strong majorities in every age group under 65 pretty much for the view that Brexit has been an error.

    We'll be back in once the Boomers have gone. Schengen, the Euro, the whole shebang. Brexit will be a two decade aberration, a collective hiccup, an anomaly delivered on lies, fevered ideological wishful thinking and nostalgia.
    Meanwhile back in the real world people have moved on, Starmer, Davey, everyone serious has moved on.

    And I hate to tell you but only push polling prompting people says that Brexit is even anything anyone is thinking about.

    Back in the real world, when it comes to polling people aren't even bringing up Europe or any related issues as a concern unprompted at all.
    You are going to be amazed and impressed by how much of Brexit you can unwind with a 300 seat maj and who knows perhaps an anti Brexit opposition, all while pointing to the fact that nothing short of actual rejoining counts as actual rejoining.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,541
    johnt said:

    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
    Most of my friends and family , unlike me, voted to leave. They are very pleased we are no more part of the EU which is what they wanted. Aside from sovereignty issues, one obvious benefit is that we are not sending money (it matters not what the actual sum is) to the EU. I was a pragmatic only Remainer and continue to be bewildered as to the extent of some Remainers' emotional attachment to the EU and wonder what is behind this.
    They (and their opinions) were scorned. They were rejected - and they can't accept it.

    Hell hath no fury like a lover Remainer scorned.

    But while they're sitting plotting their revenge, searching their ex's social media keeping tabs on them, the rest of the world has calmly and quietly moved on.
    The world has not moved on. The Tories are going to be delivered a crushing defeat as a direct result of Brexit.

    Not just because of the destructive folly of the policy itself, but also because of the incoherent populism that it catalysed.

    Tommoow night we will see that revenge of Remainers served cold.
    ...For a significant majority of the young and those who work brexit is a real issue...
    About 12%:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/the-most-important-issues-facing-the-country?crossBreak=1824
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,502
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.

    It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.

    I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
    It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
    So when do you expect a major party to bring back the death penalty?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    nico679 said:

    Even if Labour get a big majority tomorrow it means zip for the next election .

    As we’ve seen from the Tories if you screw up it doesn’t matter how big your majority is.

    Unlike the tories who pressed self-destruct, Labour are well aware of this and hungry for power.

    And with low expectations, this time things really can only get better.

    They will be in power for at least 10 years.

    Brought to you by the person who first here correctly predicted tomorrow’s Labour landslide.

    xx
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,541

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    I don't think they have moved on.

    The referendum should have put a line under the thorny issue of whether we should be part of the EU project or sit it out. It has put a line for me but obviously not for others.

    It's conveniently forgotten that Con policy was to stay in the EU and if there is blame it should be towards the MPs who voted for the referendum in the first place - which the vast majority did across party (with the notable exception of the SNP).
    It has put a line under it. We're out.

    Neither Starmer, nor Davey, nor anyone else is proposing to reverse it.

    ScottP, Beiberley and others may be banging on about it like Hiroo Onoda still fighting the war decades later, but the rest of the world has moved on.

    Starmer will have other priorities to deal with, using our sovereignty, than taking us back into Europe.
    It's going to be great. Rejoin starts in earnest on Friday.

    Democracies can change their mind. On top of us bitter Remoaners, sector after sector now feels betrayed. Farmers feel betrayed. Fishermen feel betrayed. The young feel betrayed. Small businesses feel betrayed. Big business feels betrayed. Food is more expensive. Fresh food doesn't last as long. There is less choice on our shelves. There are medicine shortages. There are labour shortages. We are second class citizens on our own continent. NHS waiting lists haven't come down. Immigration hasn't come down. The only sectors where wages have risen is where we've engineered labour shortages. We don't have amazing trade deals with the rest of the world to replace the advantages of the Single Market. The German car manufacturers didn't rescue us. It wasn't the easiest trade deal in history. We aren't part of a continent-wide free trade zone. We haven't retained free movement. We didn't hold all the cards. We couldn't have our cake and eat it.

    None of this was promised by the Lyin' Leave campaigns.

    Polling shows strong majorities in every age group under 65 pretty much for the view that Brexit has been an error.

    We'll be back in once the Boomers have gone. Schengen, the Euro, the whole shebang. Brexit will be a two decade aberration, a collective hiccup, an anomaly delivered on lies, fevered ideological wishful thinking and nostalgia.
    Meanwhile back in the real world people have moved on, Starmer, Davey, everyone serious has moved on.

    And I hate to tell you but only push polling prompting people says that Brexit is even anything anyone is thinking about.

    Back in the real world, when it comes to polling people aren't even bringing up Europe or any related issues as a concern unprompted at all.
    You are going to be amazed and impressed by how much of Brexit you can unwind with a 300 seat maj and who knows perhaps an anti Brexit opposition, all while pointing to the fact that nothing short of actual rejoining counts as actual rejoining.
    Nah. It's hard. Really hard:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2024/06/brexit-keir-starmer-eu-uk-haunt-labour-government
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,193
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.

    It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.

    I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
    It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
    I agree there will be tons of polling showing a desire to rejoin the EU. And when we do there will be tons of polling showing a desire to leave the EU.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,476

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    I don't think they have moved on.

    The referendum should have put a line under the thorny issue of whether we should be part of the EU project or sit it out. It has put a line for me but obviously not for others.

    It's conveniently forgotten that Con policy was to stay in the EU and if there is blame it should be towards the MPs who voted for the referendum in the first place - which the vast majority did across party (with the notable exception of the SNP).
    It has put a line under it. We're out.

    Neither Starmer, nor Davey, nor anyone else is proposing to reverse it.

    ScottP, Beiberley and others may be banging on about it like Hiroo Onoda still fighting the war decades later, but the rest of the world has moved on.

    Starmer will have other priorities to deal with, using our sovereignty, than taking us back into Europe.
    It's going to be great. Rejoin starts in earnest on Friday.

    Democracies can change their mind. On top of us bitter Remoaners, sector after sector now feels betrayed. Farmers feel betrayed. Fishermen feel betrayed. The young feel betrayed. Small businesses feel betrayed. Big business feels betrayed. Food is more expensive. Fresh food doesn't last as long. There is less choice on our shelves. There are medicine shortages. There are labour shortages. We are second class citizens on our own continent. NHS waiting lists haven't come down. Immigration hasn't come down. The only sectors where wages have risen is where we've engineered labour shortages. We don't have amazing trade deals with the rest of the world to replace the advantages of the Single Market. The German car manufacturers didn't rescue us. It wasn't the easiest trade deal in history. We aren't part of a continent-wide free trade zone. We haven't retained free movement. We didn't hold all the cards. We couldn't have our cake and eat it.

    None of this was promised by the Lyin' Leave campaigns.

    Polling shows strong majorities in every age group under 65 pretty much for the view that Brexit has been an error.

    We'll be back in once the Boomers have gone. Schengen, the Euro, the whole shebang. Brexit will be a two decade aberration, a collective hiccup, an anomaly delivered on lies, fevered ideological wishful thinking and nostalgia.
    Meanwhile back in the real world people have moved on, Starmer, Davey, everyone serious has moved on.

    And I hate to tell you but only push polling prompting people says that Brexit is even anything anyone is thinking about.

    Back in the real world, when it comes to polling people aren't even bringing up Europe or any related issues as a concern unprompted at all.
    You are going to be amazed and impressed by how much of Brexit you can unwind with a 300 seat maj and who knows perhaps an anti Brexit opposition, all while pointing to the fact that nothing short of actual rejoining counts as actual rejoining.
    I don't think that will happen, and certainly in his first term. It's too much of a hot potato, and there are more enticing battles for him to fight that *may* get larger rewards.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,963
    Heathener said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.

    It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.

    I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
    Why would we? We've moved on.

    Not even Keir Starmer wants to have the conversation anymore.

    Its the last war. We've moved on to the next ones already.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    nico679 said:

    Even if Labour get a big majority tomorrow it means zip for the next election .

    As we’ve seen from the Tories if you screw up it doesn’t matter how big your majority is.

    The key thing is...

    Does anyone really expect Starmer (and his mad successor and their mediocre successor) to screw up to the extent that Team 2019-24 have? Really?

    The reason that the Conservatives are heading for an unprecedented defeat is that they have been a unprecedented failure.
    I mean it’s possible but not likely. However it seems reasonable to assume that if they get a majority of 200+ that even if they cruise to reelection they would do so whilst shipping a few dozen seats, the question remains to whom.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,122
    edited July 3

    Mortimer said:

    Heathener said:

    One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.

    In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.

    It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.

    Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.

    The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.

    That has already happened. With respect to the Sunak / @Casino_Royale tantrum about tax, nobody at all is listening. Nobody. The party has lost all credibility to be able to attack anybody on tax and spend. The reason why the polls haven't moved is because the Tory campaign has been gaff after gaff after gaff, and has now reduced itself to pleeeeeeaase don't let Keir Starmer fuck and then eat your puppy.

    Cease to be relevant in 48 hours? Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.
    I'm saying this to be deviled apricot a bit... but honourable mention here for Sturgeon's scandal and resignation. The SNP has been an irrelevance in this campaign, but Sturgeon's SNP were incredibly useful to the Tories as bogeymen for English voters. The message that a weak and vacillating Labour leader would have rings run round him by a sharp, tough Sturgeon in her pomp really played well for them. But the SNP are now seen as waning, and Swinney isn't going to be running rings around anyone. The Tories lost a real trump card there.

    I mean, in truth there are several factors at play - particularly Partygate and the Truss/Kwarteng budget. But the Coalition of Chaos theme, with Sturgeon at its heart, is just so much stronger than, "If Starmer has a large majority, Michael Fabricant will be less able to scrutinise every sub-section of the Dangerous Cats Bill 2026 in the forensic manner for which he is justly famed".
    My own vote goes to the Furlough scheme.

    Very generous and gave people the expectation that the Govt will always bail them out.

    Will end in tears; eventual IMF bailout, I suspect.
    Not to do so while enforcing lockdowns would have been utterly disastrous for the economy.

    If you pinned it on lockdowns that would make more sense imo.
    Good point.

    I've always thought that politicians who go against their own better judgement generally tend to diminish themselves. The gut call of a Libertarian was surely not to lock down. Sadly the state apparatus thought they knew better.....
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,963
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.

    It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.

    I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
    It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
    The polling says this is a non-issue. Not even on the radar.

    image

    Keir Starmer and Ed Davey and everyone who wants to be elected are concentrating on actual issues, not your hobbyhorse.
  • JamesFJamesF Posts: 42

    My plan for analysing the early results tomorrow is to have my lappy and 2 tablets on the go with extreme end mrps open plus the 2019 results/target seats in my boxers like a sad old crack addict

    This made me laugh - the idea of a crack addict closely attending to the full range of MRPs!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,943

    Heathener said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.

    It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.

    I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
    Why would we? We've moved on.

    Not even Keir Starmer wants to have the conversation anymore.

    Its the last war. We've moved on to the next ones already.
    Both sides have this wrong. "Reversing Brexit" is fighting the last war. We've definitely moved on from that.
    "Considering our relationship with the EU and perhaps joining in due course" is the next war - probably a cold war for a while, but it's not going away as long as the EU exists.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,407
    Farooq said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.

    It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.

    I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
    It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
    So when do you expect a major party to bring back the death penalty?
    This month. The Conservatives. New 1922 Committee rules. Won't apply to the rest of the country though.
    Hey there's a thought. I wonder what the quorate rules are for the 1922 Committee? What happens when every MP in the party is part of the Shadow Cabinet? :)
  • johntjohnt Posts: 166

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    I don't think they have moved on.

    The referendum should have put a line under the thorny issue of whether we should be part of the EU project or sit it out. It has put a line for me but obviously not for others.

    It's conveniently forgotten that Con policy was to stay in the EU and if there is blame it should be towards the MPs who voted for the referendum in the first place - which the vast majority did across party (with the notable exception of the SNP).
    It has put a line under it. We're out.

    Neither Starmer, nor Davey, nor anyone else is proposing to reverse it.

    ScottP, Beiberley and others may be banging on about it like Hiroo Onoda still fighting the war decades later, but the rest of the world has moved on.

    Starmer will have other priorities to deal with, using our sovereignty, than taking us back into Europe.
    Except that it simply becomes more and more apparent that Brexit was sold on a lie. That many of the promises were bogus.

    It destroyed trust and the legacy of that betrayed trust is still poisoning our politics. Tomorrow may be the start of the redress but it has been a long time coming.
    What lie?

    Vote Leave made key pledges as to what Brexit would mean, and it seems to me that all have been met.

    1: That we would take back control of our laws - Done.
    Don't like a law? You can now vote for a different party to change it.

    2: The we would take back control of our money - Done.
    Our money is no longer going to Brussels.

    3: That we would take back control of our borders - Done.
    Migration now happens under our own domestically set laws. Don't like it? Vote for a party to change it to one you do like.

    4: That we would be able to sign our own trade deals - Done
    We can now sign trade deals, and have done.

    What exactly was a lie?
    In what way were these the 'key' pledges made by leave? Who defines the pledges which were key? It would be just as easy to argue that the key pledges from leave were cheaper fuel (as claimed by Johnson and Gove in May 2016), No change to the borders with Ireland (as claimed by Johnson), the 'perfect NHS of that 'which NHS will you vote for broadcast and cheaper food as offered by JRM. On that perfectly sensible and reasonable basis Brexit is a complete and total failure, is it not? It turns out all those things were lies.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,963
    TimS said:

    Heathener said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.

    It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.

    I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
    Why would we? We've moved on.

    Not even Keir Starmer wants to have the conversation anymore.

    Its the last war. We've moved on to the next ones already.
    Both sides have this wrong. "Reversing Brexit" is fighting the last war. We've definitely moved on from that.
    "Considering our relationship with the EU and perhaps joining in due course" is the next war - probably a cold war for a while, but it's not going away as long as the EU exists.
    We'll join the EU around the same time as Canada joins the USA.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,194

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    I don't think they have moved on.

    The referendum should have put a line under the thorny issue of whether we should be part of the EU project or sit it out. It has put a line for me but obviously not for others.

    It's conveniently forgotten that Con policy was to stay in the EU and if there is blame it should be towards the MPs who voted for the referendum in the first place - which the vast majority did across party (with the notable exception of the SNP).
    It has put a line under it. We're out.

    Neither Starmer, nor Davey, nor anyone else is proposing to reverse it.

    ScottP, Beiberley and others may be banging on about it like Hiroo Onoda still fighting the war decades later, but the rest of the world has moved on.

    Starmer will have other priorities to deal with, using our sovereignty, than taking us back into Europe.
    It's going to be great. Rejoin starts in earnest on Friday.

    Democracies can change their mind. On top of us bitter Remoaners, sector after sector now feels betrayed. Farmers feel betrayed. Fishermen feel betrayed. The young feel betrayed. Small businesses feel betrayed. Big business feels betrayed. Food is more expensive. Fresh food doesn't last as long. There is less choice on our shelves. There are medicine shortages. There are labour shortages. We are second class citizens on our own continent. NHS waiting lists haven't come down. Immigration hasn't come down. The only sectors where wages have risen is where we've engineered labour shortages. We don't have amazing trade deals with the rest of the world to replace the advantages of the Single Market. The German car manufacturers didn't rescue us. It wasn't the easiest trade deal in history. We aren't part of a continent-wide free trade zone. We haven't retained free movement. We didn't hold all the cards. We couldn't have our cake and eat it.

    None of this was promised by the Lyin' Leave campaigns.

    Polling shows strong majorities in every age group under 65 pretty much for the view that Brexit has been an error.

    We'll be back in once the Boomers have gone. Schengen, the Euro, the whole shebang. Brexit will be a two decade aberration, a collective hiccup, an anomaly delivered on lies, fevered ideological wishful thinking and nostalgia.
    Meanwhile back in the real world people have moved on, Starmer, Davey, everyone serious has moved on.

    And I hate to tell you but only push polling prompting people says that Brexit is even anything anyone is thinking about.

    Back in the real world, when it comes to polling people aren't even bringing up Europe or any related issues as a concern unprompted at all.
    You are going to be amazed and impressed by how much of Brexit you can unwind with a 300 seat maj and who knows perhaps an anti Brexit opposition, all while pointing to the fact that nothing short of actual rejoining counts as actual rejoining.
    I don't think that will happen, and certainly in his first term. It's too much of a hot potato, and there are more enticing battles for him to fight that *may* get larger rewards.
    And the other thing is the demographics. Mass market Brexit was always a project of a specific generation; there is no sign at all of young voters accepting it.

    If you have a hot potato and leave it, it becomes a cold potato. Almost certainly not under Starmer, but quite possibly under his successor.

    In the meantime, saying "it's a lovely Brexit and we wouldn't dream of getting rid of it and not just because you would cut us out of your will" is a noble lie to keep the peace.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,955
    Stocky said:

    I honestly don't think it's that. I think it's a deep down dislike for their own country and they (perhaps unconsciously) support any way of diluting it. I think it's a disapproval of the nation state system over some sort of global utopia.

    You have this entirely backwards (perhaps unsurprisingly)

    I was very proud on my Country, a Global leader, a beacon of enlightenment and rational thought.

    And then we narrowly voted with the swivel eyed loons and closet racists to withdraw from the World as it is and retreat into a fantasy of the World as it used to be.

    It is a stain of shame that will take a long time to clear
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,572
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.

    It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.

    I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
    It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
    I suppose it's similar to immigration pre-Brexit. People are upset about it but it's not a top priority for most people in the centre.

    The smart thing (politically) would be up ignore it as an issue and never fall into the trap Cameron did. Starmer needs to stick his fingers in his ears for the next 5/20/♾️ years.

    If the majority is as massive as suggested then that will be difficult to suppress it. But then so will agitators on child poverty, climate change, disability, cycle lanes (cough)...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,193

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.

    It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.

    I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
    It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
    The polling says this is a non-issue. Not even on the radar.

    image

    Keir Starmer and Ed Davey and everyone who wants to be elected are concentrating on actual issues, not your hobbyhorse.
    The hobbyhorse was long obvious with regard to rabid leavers but I had completely missed that a similar hobbyhorse existed on the remain side. I understand the former but still don't understand the latter. Both hobbyhorses are emotional and irrational, and shows how wrong I was when I thought being in or out was/is a pragmatic decision.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,157
    Scott_xP said:

    Stocky said:

    I honestly don't think it's that. I think it's a deep down dislike for their own country and they (perhaps unconsciously) support any way of diluting it. I think it's a disapproval of the nation state system over some sort of global utopia.

    You have this entirely backwards (perhaps unsurprisingly)

    I was very proud on my Country, a Global leader, a beacon of enlightenment and rational thought.

    And then we narrowly voted with the swivel eyed loons and closet racists to withdraw from the World as it is and retreat into a fantasy of the World as it used to be.

    It is a stain of shame that will take a long time to clear
    Any thoughts on Italy and France? Do you want to be in a club with them given who they are voting for?
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    My original prediction is recorded on here somewhere. I'm somewhat less bullish on the Tories now (I had them on 200-odd when soggy Sunak announced snappy lex.

    Day before prediction:

    Labour (inc Chorley): 393
    Conservative: 155
    Lib Dem: 53
    SNP: 23
    Reform: 4
    Green: 2
    Independent: 1 (not sure who though!)
    NI - less secure here but Alliance on two and UUP on one. Obvs 18 in total.


    I am hoping that all adds up!
  • johntjohnt Posts: 166
    carnforth said:

    johnt said:

    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
    Most of my friends and family , unlike me, voted to leave. They are very pleased we are no more part of the EU which is what they wanted. Aside from sovereignty issues, one obvious benefit is that we are not sending money (it matters not what the actual sum is) to the EU. I was a pragmatic only Remainer and continue to be bewildered as to the extent of some Remainers' emotional attachment to the EU and wonder what is behind this.
    They (and their opinions) were scorned. They were rejected - and they can't accept it.

    Hell hath no fury like a lover Remainer scorned.

    But while they're sitting plotting their revenge, searching their ex's social media keeping tabs on them, the rest of the world has calmly and quietly moved on.
    The world has not moved on. The Tories are going to be delivered a crushing defeat as a direct result of Brexit.

    Not just because of the destructive folly of the policy itself, but also because of the incoherent populism that it catalysed.

    Tommoow night we will see that revenge of Remainers served cold.
    ...For a significant majority of the young and those who work brexit is a real issue...
    About 12%:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/the-most-important-issues-facing-the-country?crossBreak=1824
    Since when is a 'real' issue the same as the 'most important' issue? I do find the way in which some try to twist reality to be very tedious. But the leavers did it for years so I guess it is just something they will continue to do.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.

    It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.

    I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
    It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
    The polling says this is a non-issue. Not even on the radar.

    image

    Keir Starmer and Ed Davey and everyone who wants to be elected are concentrating on actual issues, not your hobbyhorse.
    3 of those top 5 look heavily influenced by Brexit to me though.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,899
    edited July 3

    So what, its Starmer and Reeves who will have to make the decisions.

    And take the unpopularity which comes with it.

    Hopefully the extra tax raised will be spent competently.

    But the slogans are already being written:

    Keir Starmer the kid starver.
    Starmer and Reeves the pension thieves.

    And in five years time perhaps a return of that old favourite.

    Labour isn't working.

    Labour are going to be elected not because there is any great enthusiasm for the party, at the moment it looks like Corbyn was more popular, but because people are fed up. Not even fed up with the Tories per se, but because the last five years have been very tough due the pandemic, and the war in Ukraine which saw commodities like food and fuel soar in price, leading to high inflation. Almost any concievable government would be in dire straits now. Events have done them in.

    I expect events will likewise do Labour in, and I do not think Starmer will get much chance to enact the nice things in his manifesto. The next 5 years might make the last 5 look relatively trivial.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855

    Stocky said:

    franklyn said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
    You really have no idea of the practical effects of Brexit
    Long queues at airports overseas for UK passport holders. Doesn't encourage business travel
    Difficulties and expense of importing foods from EU countries. Have you looked at the poor range of cheese in shops these days
    Pharmacies unable to access commonly used medicines, including those for serious medical conditions, because it's too complex to import pharmaceuticals from Europe. This really harms patients
    The list goes on, and it is difficult to think of a single positive.
    Jeez, not this again. I have flown to Europe dozens of times to various airports since Brexit and am yet to find a single queue. Either I have been extraordinarily lucky or some of these Brexit disadvantages are being imagined.

    A narrower choice of cheese - are you serious?
    My experience also. Indeed I used to have to queue a lot more at Schipol when we were in the EU. Connections through Schipol have actually got easier over the last few years (though that may well be completely unconnected to Brexit of course).
    I flew into and out of Schiphol at Easter and it was absolutely hellish on the way in. They had far too few border staff for the volume of flights at that time, though (1-2pm).
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.

    It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.

    I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
    It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
    The polling says this is a non-issue. Not even on the radar.

    image

    Keir Starmer and Ed Davey and everyone who wants to be elected are concentrating on actual issues, not your hobbyhorse.
    What you are of course failing to engage with is that several of those categories, and especially the economy, have been irreparably damaged by our withdrawal from the largest trading bloc.

    The economic arguments, which were never properly aired during the 2016 campaign, will become persuasive once more.

    It’s only a matter of time whether you like or not, or indeed whether you try to convince yourself or not.

    Money talks.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,193
    Scott_xP said:

    Stocky said:

    I honestly don't think it's that. I think it's a deep down dislike for their own country and they (perhaps unconsciously) support any way of diluting it. I think it's a disapproval of the nation state system over some sort of global utopia.

    You have this entirely backwards (perhaps unsurprisingly)

    I was very proud on my Country, a Global leader, a beacon of enlightenment and rational thought.

    And then we narrowly voted with the swivel eyed loons and closet racists to withdraw from the World as it is and retreat into a fantasy of the World as it used to be.

    It is a stain of shame that will take a long time to clear
    I can understand that, but you are not left-wing are you - and the global influence argument was one of the main reasons that I voted to remain. However, you are surely holding an elevated notion of what the EU is surely?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Anyway, one for another day.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    glw said:

    So what, its Starmer and Reeves who will have to make the decisions.

    And take the unpopularity which comes with it.

    Hopefully the extra tax raised will be spent competently.

    But the slogans are already being written:

    Keir Starmer the kid starver.
    Starmer and Reeves the pension thieves.

    And in five years time perhaps a return of that old favourite.

    Labour isn't working.

    Labour are going to be elected not because there is any great enthusiasm for the party, at the moment it looks like Corbyn was more popular, but because people are fed up. Not even fed up with the Tories per se, but because the last five years have been very tough due the pandemic, and the war in Ukraine which saw commodities like food and fuel soar in price, leading to high inflation. Almost any concievable government would be in dire straits now. Events have done them in.

    I expect events will likewise do Labour in, and I do not think Starmer will get much chance to enact the nice things in his manifesto. The next 5 years might make the last 5 look relatively trivial.
    Based on the last five years I'm predicting nothing about the next five!
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,387

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    For many people, there is a steady stream of inconveniences resulting from Brexit.

    In the case of my missus, the latest wheeze is labels, sticky labels that are used for labelling sample vials at her NHS lab. The ones they use are robust, waterproof, have the correct information and have proved themselves over time. They imported from the Netherlands, and the latest batch has been stuck in customs for the last month or so. In desperation, the Dutch supplier has been rerouting labels intended for other labs are are already in the UK, but this can only be a stopgap measure. If they don't get those labels soon, they simply won't be able to continue cancer testing. It's a completely absurd situation.
    Does that not just pose the question of who ever thought it was sensible to buy labels from overseas? If that ever made economic sense then there’s something fundamentally wrong. Hence Brexit to force the issue. Or is label making a specialist art only found in the Netherlands?
    It's got to be one hell of a specialist label if "simply won't be able to continue cancer testing" is anything other than the worst hyperbole I've seen since 2016.
    It is a specialist label. That's how these things work! The labels have specific markings and are read by machines. You can't just stick a hand-written post-it on the vial.

    Honestly, some people seem to have no idea how the modern world actually functions.

    Edit: And that, by the way, is just one example. Every day seems to bring some other Brexit-related hassle for which some sort of workaround has to be found. And that all ends up costing money.
    Do you think cancer testing would stop if the factory in the Netherlands burned down, or do you think a solution would be found?
    Indeed.

    Its probably got bugger all to do with Brexit.

    People with an axe to grind or excuses to make both like to reach for the same thing.
    Well, if the "stuck in customs" thing is actually true, then it kind of is due to Brexit.

    My point is just that there will be (or should be) some redundancy here, for such a serious issue.
    That's a big if.
    Yes, it is actually true. Believe it or not, no longer being in a customs union with the EU means that stuff from the EU now has to go through customs. This often results in substantial and unpredictable delays as well as additional expense.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    Heathener said:

    One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.

    In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.

    It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.

    Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.

    The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.

    You haven't won just yet.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    That latter group being the authors of the fiendishly cunning argument that the benefit of Brexit is Brexit. It's a success by dint of it happening.

    I mean, c'mon. Lots of things happen in this world. Eg the zip went on my Blue Harbour chinos this morning.
    That’s where I am. Brexit is Brexit. That’s the benefit of Brexiting: Brexiting

    Brexit divided by Brexit equals Brexit
    Brexit divided by brexit equals 1, the number of brain cells brexiteers have.
    Fucking hell thats a low but clever blow: I don’t think you realise the power of your words, sometimes

    I may never post again
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Stocky said:

    franklyn said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
    You really have no idea of the practical effects of Brexit
    Long queues at airports overseas for UK passport holders. Doesn't encourage business travel
    Difficulties and expense of importing foods from EU countries. Have you looked at the poor range of cheese in shops these days
    Pharmacies unable to access commonly used medicines, including those for serious medical conditions, because it's too complex to import pharmaceuticals from Europe. This really harms patients
    The list goes on, and it is difficult to think of a single positive.
    Jeez, not this again. I have flown to Europe dozens of times to various airports since Brexit and am yet to find a single queue. Either I have been extraordinarily lucky or some of these Brexit disadvantages are being imagined.

    A narrower choice of cheese - are you serious?
    My experience also. Indeed I used to have to queue a lot more at Schipol when we were in the EU. Connections through Schipol have actually got easier over the last few years (though that may well be completely unconnected to Brexit of course).
    I flew into and out of Schiphol at Easter and it was absolutely hellish on the way in. They had far too few border staff for the volume of flights at that time, though (1-2pm).
    Yeah appalling at Oslo every time too. We’re no longer in the EU fast track and it’s abysmal.

    I did remind all the Brits getting very stressed out about missing flights that if they hadn’t voted Brexit they wouldn’t be in the predicament.

    But I also let them in front of me. Nice lass y’see.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    One of the things that happens in a sea-change election is the time it takes for the penny to drop, and I’m not referring to the soon-to-be-ex member for Portsmouth North.

    In 48 hours the Conservatives will cease to be relevant in British politics.

    It may interest some on here who next leads them but it will have no relevance for this country. For whoever is chosen by the party faithful will lead them to another crushing defeat.

    Look to the leader after the leader after the next leader. That’s the one who ‘may’ be relevant again for this country and not before.

    The country is voting for Change. Bye-Bye tories for a generation.

    You haven't won just yet.
    Haha
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    That latter group being the authors of the fiendishly cunning argument that the benefit of Brexit is Brexit. It's a success by dint of it happening.

    I mean, c'mon. Lots of things happen in this world. Eg the zip went on my Blue Harbour chinos this morning.
    That’s where I am. Brexit is Brexit. That’s the benefit of Brexiting: Brexiting

    Brexit divided by Brexit equals Brexit
    Brexit divided by brexit equals 1, the number of brain cells brexiteers have.

    I may never post again
    Please God
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,615

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    20h
    Watergate journalist @CarlBernstein reveals more incidents of Biden’s cognitive decline, as reported by people who love and admire the President:

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/1808128894727598401
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,187
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    That latter group being the authors of the fiendishly cunning argument that the benefit of Brexit is Brexit. It's a success by dint of it happening.

    I mean, c'mon. Lots of things happen in this world. Eg the zip went on my Blue Harbour chinos this morning.
    That’s where I am. Brexit is Brexit. That’s the benefit of Brexiting: Brexiting

    Brexit divided by Brexit equals Brexit
    Brexit divided by brexit equals 1, the number of brain cells brexiteers have.
    Fucking hell thats a low but clever blow: I don’t think you realise the power of your words, sometimes

    I may never post again
    Finally a Brexit benefit!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,502

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    For many people, there is a steady stream of inconveniences resulting from Brexit.

    In the case of my missus, the latest wheeze is labels, sticky labels that are used for labelling sample vials at her NHS lab. The ones they use are robust, waterproof, have the correct information and have proved themselves over time. They imported from the Netherlands, and the latest batch has been stuck in customs for the last month or so. In desperation, the Dutch supplier has been rerouting labels intended for other labs are are already in the UK, but this can only be a stopgap measure. If they don't get those labels soon, they simply won't be able to continue cancer testing. It's a completely absurd situation.
    Does that not just pose the question of who ever thought it was sensible to buy labels from overseas? If that ever made economic sense then there’s something fundamentally wrong. Hence Brexit to force the issue. Or is label making a specialist art only found in the Netherlands?
    It's got to be one hell of a specialist label if "simply won't be able to continue cancer testing" is anything other than the worst hyperbole I've seen since 2016.
    It is a specialist label. That's how these things work! The labels have specific markings and are read by machines. You can't just stick a hand-written post-it on the vial.

    Honestly, some people seem to have no idea how the modern world actually functions.

    Edit: And that, by the way, is just one example. Every day seems to bring some other Brexit-related hassle for which some sort of workaround has to be found. And that all ends up costing money.
    Do you think cancer testing would stop if the factory in the Netherlands burned down, or do you think a solution would be found?
    Indeed.

    Its probably got bugger all to do with Brexit.

    People with an axe to grind or excuses to make both like to reach for the same thing.
    Well, if the "stuck in customs" thing is actually true, then it kind of is due to Brexit.

    My point is just that there will be (or should be) some redundancy here, for such a serious issue.
    That's a big if.
    Yes, it is actually true. Believe it or not, no longer being in a customs union with the EU means that stuff from the EU now has to go through customs. This often results in substantial and unpredictable delays as well as additional expense.
    Hassle drives investment and innovation.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Do we have a list of PB CON>LAB switchers?

    Welcome

    @ToryJim
    @BartholomewRoberts
    @Leon (?)

    Any others?

    Me
    Welcome
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492

    @Andy_JS - you asked in the last thread if there would be any Tories left in Oxfordshire.

    Other than the prospect of them holding on through the middle in Bicester & Woodstock or in Didcot & Wantage, their best prospect is Witney.

    Although until the votes are counted, they could hold on everywhere out of a fortunate distribution of votes of course, or a late softening towards them (I will never count the chickens before they're hatched and Lib Dems have scars on their backs from hope in the past).

    I understand that Labour have been concerned in Banbury that it's proving to have a resilient Tory share (and the campaign visits from both Starmer and Sunak recently indicate that both think it's still in the fight), but I think Labour have got it there - albeit from a bit of a distance and with minimal direct knowledge of that constituency.

    Witney, though, always looked the hardest nut to crack and at the start of the campaign, I assumed it'd stay blue but with a decent Lib Dem advance. However, virtually everything seems to have broken ideally for Charlie Maynard and it seems to be genuinely in the balance (as per the campaign visits by Sunak and Davey - they both seem to think it's gettable by either).

    Thanks Andy.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,639

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    The more I see that kind of sentiment the less sincere it seems.

    It’s like they’re trying to convince themselves that it is true. Leon is the worst culprit but not alone.

    I suspect therefore that you / they know that at some point this is a conversation which the country will once more be having.
    It's only a matter of time. Politicians cannot ignore the polling on this forever. If they want to be elected that is.
    The polling says this is a non-issue. Not even on the radar.

    image

    Keir Starmer and Ed Davey and everyone who wants to be elected are concentrating on actual issues, not your hobbyhorse.
    The thing is, the top four are heavily influenced, negatively, by Brexit. And people realise that. So it is an issue.

    If Brexit were so good the Tories would have made it front and centre of this campaign. They haven't. They are heading for a hiding that can be traced back to the referendum and the contortions they have made to try and deliver on their unicorns for all. And they couldn't do it, so they went right-wing. As they were always going to do.

    And now revenge is coming.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    Isn't it amusing how all the people saying this is an excellent summary ae the fucked off, bitter Remainers who haven't gotten over losing?

    Speaking as a "sovereignty fetishist" I am happy with Brexit. We have taken back control and if our government doesn't do what we want it to do, we can kick it out.

    What I'm not happy with is the government. It hasn't done what I want it to do so I'm going to vote to kick it out.

    The fact I want a change of government doesn't mean I want to hand control back to unelected Eurocrats whom we can't kick out at our national elections though.
    I am, however, open-mouthed in bewilderment over people who were massive Brexiteers deciding to vote this time for the party whose slogan was literally 'Bollocks to Brexit' or the party whose leader was agitating for a second referendum and actively hampering our exit negotiations with the EU.
    Why?

    Its done, we've moved on. They've moved on too.
    I don't think they have moved on.

    The referendum should have put a line under the thorny issue of whether we should be part of the EU project or sit it out. It has put a line for me but obviously not for others.

    It's conveniently forgotten that Con policy was to stay in the EU and if there is blame it should be towards the MPs who voted for the referendum in the first place - which the vast majority did across party (with the notable exception of the SNP).
    It has put a line under it. We're out.

    Neither Starmer, nor Davey, nor anyone else is proposing to reverse it.

    ScottP, Beiberley and others may be banging on about it like Hiroo Onoda still fighting the war decades later, but the rest of the world has moved on.

    Starmer will have other priorities to deal with, using our sovereignty, than taking us back into Europe.
    It's going to be great. Rejoin starts in earnest on Friday.

    Democracies can change their mind. On top of us bitter Remoaners, sector after sector now feels betrayed. Farmers feel betrayed. Fishermen feel betrayed. The young feel betrayed. Small businesses feel betrayed. Big business feels betrayed. Food is more expensive. Fresh food doesn't last as long. There is less choice on our shelves. There are medicine shortages. There are labour shortages. We are second class citizens on our own continent. NHS waiting lists haven't come down. Immigration hasn't come down. The only sectors where wages have risen is where we've engineered labour shortages. We don't have amazing trade deals with the rest of the world to replace the advantages of the Single Market. The German car manufacturers didn't rescue us. It wasn't the easiest trade deal in history. We aren't part of a continent-wide free trade zone. We haven't retained free movement. We didn't hold all the cards. We couldn't have our cake and eat it.

    None of this was promised by the Lyin' Leave campaigns.

    Polling shows strong majorities in every age group under 65 pretty much for the view that Brexit has been an error.

    We'll be back in once the Boomers have gone. Schengen, the Euro, the whole shebang. Brexit will be a two decade aberration, a collective hiccup, an anomaly delivered on lies, fevered ideological wishful thinking and nostalgia.
    Meanwhile back in the real world people have moved on, Starmer, Davey, everyone serious has moved on.

    And I hate to tell you but only push polling prompting people says that Brexit is even anything anyone is thinking about.

    Back in the real world, when it comes to polling people aren't even bringing up Europe or any related issues as a concern unprompted at all.
    You are going to be amazed and impressed by how much of Brexit you can unwind with a 300 seat maj and who knows perhaps an anti Brexit opposition, all while pointing to the fact that nothing short of actual rejoining counts as actual rejoining.
    I don't think that will happen, and certainly in his first term. It's too much of a hot potato, and there are more enticing battles for him to fight that *may* get larger rewards.
    And the other thing is the demographics. Mass market Brexit was always a project of a specific generation; there is no sign at all of young voters accepting it.

    If you have a hot potato and leave it, it becomes a cold potato. Almost certainly not under Starmer, but quite possibly under his successor.

    In the meantime, saying "it's a lovely Brexit and we wouldn't dream of getting rid of it and not just because you would cut us out of your will" is a noble lie to keep the peace.
    30-35% of young men are voting Reform. Do they want to rejoin the EU? Well yes maybe if it’s run by Meloni, Orban, Wilders and Le Pen

    I sense your Remaineriness is about to be severely tested
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,407
    Heathener said:

    Stocky said:

    franklyn said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Once this is over and this election becomes something that people study in the decades to come, the question will be at which point did the Tories cease to be relevant.

    I'm going with the Truss budget.

    Brexit
    It started with Boris. Boris’s consistently terrible behaviour led to Truss. I agree that the Trussterfuck budget cemented the shift long term.

    Honestly I don’t think it’s Brexit.
    Hardly anybody got what they wanted out of Brexit.

    Cameron did the referendum as an internal party management measure and to shore up his right flank against UKIP. That worked out just splendidly.

    The Remainers are fucked off, bitter and will never forgive or forget.

    The chavs didn't get less immigration but got more from less culturally adjacent sources. This was very predictable but just not by them.

    The Singapore-on-Thames wankers didn't get their free market paradise.

    The sovereignty fetishists are the only tiny group that are claiming to be happy with it and they are lying for reasons of vanity and pride.
    You morons really think that’s true don’t you? Many of us have zero regrets over Brexit, precisely because we follow what the EU has been up to, and which we now don’t have to copy. We aren’t diverging: they are.
    You really have no idea of the practical effects of Brexit
    Long queues at airports overseas for UK passport holders. Doesn't encourage business travel
    Difficulties and expense of importing foods from EU countries. Have you looked at the poor range of cheese in shops these days
    Pharmacies unable to access commonly used medicines, including those for serious medical conditions, because it's too complex to import pharmaceuticals from Europe. This really harms patients
    The list goes on, and it is difficult to think of a single positive.
    Jeez, not this again. I have flown to Europe dozens of times to various airports since Brexit and am yet to find a single queue. Either I have been extraordinarily lucky or some of these Brexit disadvantages are being imagined.

    A narrower choice of cheese - are you serious?
    My experience also. Indeed I used to have to queue a lot more at Schipol when we were in the EU. Connections through Schipol have actually got easier over the last few years (though that may well be completely unconnected to Brexit of course).
    I flew into and out of Schiphol at Easter and it was absolutely hellish on the way in. They had far too few border staff for the volume of flights at that time, though (1-2pm).
    Yeah appalling at Oslo every time too. We’re no longer in the EU fast track and it’s abysmal.

    I did remind all the Brits getting very stressed out about missing flights that if they hadn’t voted Brexit they wouldn’t be in the predicament.

    But I also let them in front of me. Nice lass y’see.
    I have flown into Oslo and Stavanger 4 times in the last year and never had to queue.
This discussion has been closed.