"were things really that bad under the guy who ACTUALLY TRIED TO END AMERICAN DEMOCRACY?"
Makes you think
What are the democrats doing? Is it any better? They have spent two years pretending the president isn’t mad and now we all know they are literally trying to get Americans to ignore this and vote for a mad president. As things stand
Thing is, even if these polls weren’t swinging to Trump, Biden should still quit.
1. You can’t have a senile President 2. You can’t lie about a President not being senile then when everyone sees that he’s senile say oh it doesn’t matter vote for him anyway, Jill will run the country
It’s absurd and obscene. Get rid of him
The problem is the ridiculous "Won't back down" attitude that's so popular in the United States, even when it's obvious to everyone that you should.
Yes. And I reckon there is a 27.4% chance this ends in violence. Either personal and forensic - an assassination or two - or large scale civil strife
Thing is, even if these polls weren’t swinging to Trump, Biden should still quit.
1. You can’t have a senile President 2. You can’t lie about a President not being senile then when everyone sees that he’s senile say oh it doesn’t matter vote for him anyway, Jill will run the country
It’s absurd and obscene. Get rid of him
Half of the US would prefer Jill to run the country than Trump, even if her husband was in a coma
And then the republicans can say So you deceived the entire American people and the President was elected on a fraudulent basis - unconstitutional, he’s unfit for office - so we’re just going to ignore the election and/or challenge it in SCOTUS
You’re really setting up the civil war there
Though I agree, that would be rather a stupid approach - though I'm not sure it would be unconstitutional, as long as no one invoked the 25th (alternatively you could just invoke the 25th after his election). As a strategy it's lunacy though.
But the Republicans really set the course for a civil war by rigging SCOTUS with corrupt partisan judges to the point it's very difficult to see how an elected Democrat government can function properly without taking measures that actively flout and rip up its role. Which would obviously cause uproar itself.
And it goes back further, as the GOP has been trampling all over America's democratic norms for years while the Democrats played nice and hoped to win the day in votes then tilt things back. Now for the Democrats it maybe too late as the game is so rigged against them and the country so polarised.
Even many Democrat moderates who used to make great plays of bipartisanship just don't believe in the system with this Court, and believe it to be entirely illegitimate and unconstitutional itself given its membership (e.g. that Thomas should be facing criminal corruption charges and not allowed to sit) and how it was appointed.
Thing is, even if these polls weren’t swinging to Trump, Biden should still quit.
1. You can’t have a senile President 2. You can’t lie about a President not being senile then when everyone sees that he’s senile say oh it doesn’t matter vote for him anyway, Jill will run the country
It’s absurd and obscene. Get rid of him
Half of the US would prefer Jill to run the country than Trump, even if her husband was in a coma
And then the republicans can say So you deceived the entire American people and the President was elected on a fraudulent basis - unconstitutional, he’s unfit for office - so we’re just going to ignore the election and/or challenge it in SCOTUS
You’re really setting up the civil war there
Though I agree, that would be rather a stupid approach - though I'm not sure it would be unconstitutional, as long as no one invoked the 25th (alternatively you could just invoke the 25th after his election). As a strategy it's lunacy though.
But the Republicans really set the course for a civil war by rigging SCOTUS with corrupt partisan judges to the point it's very difficult to see how an elected Democrat government can function properly without taking measures that actively flout and rip up its role. Which would obviously cause uproar itself.
And it goes back further, as the GOP has been trampling all over America's democratic norms for years while the Democrats played nice and hoped to win the day in votes then tilt things back. Now for the Democrats it maybe too late as the game is so rigged against them and the country so polarised.
Even many Democrat moderates who used to make great plays of bipartisanship just don't believe in the system with this Court, and believe it to be entirely illegitimate and unconstitutional itself given its membership (e.g. that Thomas should be facing criminal corruption charges and not allowed to sit) and how it was appointed.
So “let’s just have a civil war anyway”. That’s your argument?
And btw lots of sane republicans can equally point to really dodgy shit the democrats have done - long before they tried to pretend the president is not mad
What was the last poll reported that has not particularly-adjusted figures in the headline? Seeing some *interesting* trends here at Survation HQ in current fieldwork
That’s a mahoosive shift in this context. In fact I’m calling it a mahoohoohohoohoohohoosive shift and it’s not often I say that
Surely this is it for Biden. A crushing defeat TO DONALD TRUMP is staring the Dems in the face. Biden has to go. If he won’t jump, push
You don't seem to realise that the +6 just means Trump is leading by 6 in this poll. I think he was also leading by 6 in the previous Harvard Harris poll so no not a mahoosive shift. No shift at all. Trump's lead unchanged.
That’s a mahoosive shift in this context. In fact I’m calling it a mahoohoohohoohoohohoosive shift and it’s not often I say that
Surely this is it for Biden. A crushing defeat TO DONALD TRUMP is staring the Dems in the face. Biden has to go. If he won’t jump, push
You don't seem to realise that the +6 just means Trump is leading by 6 in this poll. I think he was also leading by 6 in the previous Harvard Harris poll so no not a mahoosive shift. No shift at all. Trump's lead unchanged.
Ah. Fair enough. Is that what this is? - I forgot American pollsters do that?
That’s a mahoosive shift in this context. In fact I’m calling it a mahoohoohohoohoohohoosive shift and it’s not often I say that
Surely this is it for Biden. A crushing defeat TO DONALD TRUMP is staring the Dems in the face. Biden has to go. If he won’t jump, push
You don't seem to realise that the +6 just means Trump is leading by 6 in this poll. I think he was also leading by 6 in the previous Harvard Harris poll so no not a mahoosive shift. No shift at all. Trump's lead unchanged.
It is really annoying (and stupid) that American pollsters present their numbers in that way. I mean, anyone can see it’s a six point lead, but it would be useful to know the changes.
What was the last poll reported that has not particularly-adjusted figures in the headline? Seeing some *interesting* trends here at Survation HQ in current fieldwork
What does that mean.....like the sentence I don't get it
I'm unsure too. Obviously I understand the "interesting" trends statement. But I'm unsure what is meant by the first part....
He’s trying to flame his competitors that cook the books by reallocating DKs I think. At least I think that’s what he means. I vaguely remember a TV interview with him years ago where he was sceptical of the practice.
He’s quite an outre figure for a pollster, I’m sure Mr Redfield and Mr Wilton would consider him somewhat gauche.
That’s a mahoosive shift in this context. In fact I’m calling it a mahoohoohohoohoohohoosive shift and it’s not often I say that
Surely this is it for Biden. A crushing defeat TO DONALD TRUMP is staring the Dems in the face. Biden has to go. If he won’t jump, push
You don't seem to realise that the +6 just means Trump is leading by 6 in this poll. I think he was also leading by 6 in the previous Harvard Harris poll so no not a mahoosive shift. No shift at all. Trump's lead unchanged.
It is really annoying (and stupid) that American pollsters present their numbers in that way. I mean, anyone can see it’s a six point lead, but it would be useful to know the changes.
I’m trying to find the prior numbers - some tweeters are claiming this is still v bad for Biden
I don't know the result but please tell me Raducanu won her match.
Can’t you just google it?
I was trying to start a tennis conversation on here, to change the subject slightly.
Fair enough. Luckily for you, you missed the bread shop debate earlier, an exchange not eclipsed for mundanity since the heady days of the PB pizza chain discussion.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
Sunderland South is hardly representative of all the other seats.
I'd say we won't really know until we start seeing a few LD target seats too: Harrogate & Knaresborough at c. 01:45, maybe not until Cheltenham and Eastleigh around 03:00.
Do people not think the exit poll will give at least a rough idea of which category the result is in?
Well quite. MrEd/MisterBedfordshire is weirdo Trumpian trollcaster who knows very little about psephology. Hence his now legendary ‘tip’ for Trump to carry VA in Potus 2020, which Trump lost by 11 points.
I'm not Mr Ed. I stopped posting in 2016 until recently
I also don't go round insulting other posters.
Insulting other posters including me because you disagree with their posts says more about you than you intended to reveal.
Happy to take you word for it but your posts are uncannily similar to his and then there's the MrEd/MisterBedfordshire name similarity.
Still remember enjoying a good few beers with Mr Ed at the last PB gathering, shame he got himself banned.
@mrbedfordshire didn't work and has zilch posts because google (gmail) blocked @rcs1000 email message in response to registration to verify the email address because it came from Vanilla not @rcs1000 so googles spoofing klaxons went off (@paul.... had similar problems after the interregnum since 2016)
So @misterbedfordshire came into existence via a non gmail email which didn't block the please verify email address message.
If you are registered here with a gmail address and you need vanilla to send a message to it for any reason (like you forgot your password) you is stuffed.
Ain't life grand.
also Mr Ed would never willingly get on a bus. I'm buying it.
I don't know the result but please tell me Raducanu won her match.
Can’t you just google it?
I was trying to start a tennis conversation on here, to change the subject slightly.
Fair enough. Luckily for you, you missed the bread shop debate earlier, an exchange not eclipsed for mundanity since the heady days of the PB pizza chain discussion.
That’s a mahoosive shift in this context. In fact I’m calling it a mahoohoohohoohoohohoosive shift and it’s not often I say that
Surely this is it for Biden. A crushing defeat TO DONALD TRUMP is staring the Dems in the face. Biden has to go. If he won’t jump, push
You don't seem to realise that the +6 just means Trump is leading by 6 in this poll. I think he was also leading by 6 in the previous Harvard Harris poll so no not a mahoosive shift. No shift at all. Trump's lead unchanged.
It is really annoying (and stupid) that American pollsters present their numbers in that way. I mean, anyone can see it’s a six point lead, but it would be useful to know the changes.
I’m trying to find the prior numbers - some tweeters are claiming this is still v bad for Biden
It's no change. I'm sure WilliamGlenn knew this when he posted it. Sneaky that way.
Question about BF Exchange for some experienced heads.
I sometimes put longshot lays on in the hopes someone will snap it up.
Then maybe 2 weeks later someone has marched it, and some money drops into my account - but there doesn’t appear to be a way you can check it.
Is there a ‘recently matched’ section in betting history? It only orders them by ‘recently placed’ - so something I put as a longshot lay 2 weeks ago ends up being difficult to find, and then I’m having to check through all my unmatched bets on every market to find it.
Things are starting to inch back in for the Conservatives. Far too late now however, only two days of campaigning left.
I believed at the start of the campaign a hung Parliament wasn't out of the realms of possibility if the Conservatives could creep back up to 30-32% and take from Labour pushing them down to the high 30s.
Labour's support has fallen (but it was never that solid to begin with) but the Conservatives haven't really crept back into the game.
Reform are now at UKIP 2013 levels, and my guess they'd get 2 seats might be an exageration. Lib Dems also being squeezed, along with the Greens and for all Davey's antics, I could see them finishing on only the high teens in terms of seats......
Question about BF Exchange for some experienced heads.
I sometimes put longshot lays on in the hopes someone will snap it up.
Then maybe 2 weeks later someone has marched it, and some money drops into my account - but there doesn’t appear to be a way you can check it.
Is there a ‘recently matched’ section in betting history? It only orders them by ‘recently placed’ - so something I put as a longshot lay 2 weeks ago ends up being difficult to find, and then I’m having to check through all my unmatched bets on every market to find it.
Can't you choose "matched" and "open" in betting activity, and then it lists them by date? I'm not that well-versed in this.
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Reform aren't planning any of that. They're all about immigration.
They have some insane spending plans. They plan to have zero net immigration.
Reform would crash the economy if elected. Luckily, they will be nowhere near the levers of power.
Got two leaflets today. Reform and Labour (again), so now three in total.
Chucked them both, but I did glance at the Reform one. The 'net zero immigration' just made me roar with laughter. They'd never achieve that, and given the population crisis incoming, you wouldn't WANT to achieve that.
It's odd that the actual voting intention polls don't seem to have shifted much though. Maybe nothing will shift them much. People have made their minds up. It kinda makes sense. The 40 something % of voters who really don't want Trump to be president don't care if Biden is half-dead.
Regarding the US election, the blunt fact was that Biden as a candidate was a drag on the Democratic vote which may have been critical enough in a tight race but there was enough doubt to keep him in. The whole comeback from the debate performance is seeping in which probably makes that drag actually critical.
Clearly a week or so to wait it out for some polls is one thing but after that? Democrats have to hope the polls show a real dent in their numbers or else they got a problem of being in no mans land. If there is a dent they face another problem, who is wielding the knife. There is enough outright hositility to Trump for the Democrats to win ok.
As regards the headline article, I'd be surprised if Labour are not at 40%, I think its a differential turnout issue but equally Im not sure the Conservatives are going to be quite as bad as the polls suggest. Its the popular thing to do to slag them off but that wont carry to everyone when they mark the ballot.
On another unrelated note, it appears the Americans are very concerned someone is going to attack one of its facilities in Europe in the next 7-10 days. Bear in mind the US intelligence is good at spotting a lot of these things coming even if not absolutely time and target specific.
Thing is, even if these polls weren’t swinging to Trump, Biden should still quit.
1. You can’t have a senile President 2. You can’t lie about a President not being senile then when everyone sees that he’s senile say oh it doesn’t matter vote for him anyway, Jill will run the country
It’s absurd and obscene. Get rid of him
Half of the US would prefer Jill to run the country than Trump, even if her husband was in a coma
And then the republicans can say So you deceived the entire American people and the President was elected on a fraudulent basis - unconstitutional, he’s unfit for office - so we’re just going to ignore the election and/or challenge it in SCOTUS
You’re really setting up the civil war there
Though I agree, that would be rather a stupid approach - though I'm not sure it would be unconstitutional, as long as no one invoked the 25th (alternatively you could just invoke the 25th after his election). As a strategy it's lunacy though.
But the Republicans really set the course for a civil war by rigging SCOTUS with corrupt partisan judges to the point it's very difficult to see how an elected Democrat government can function properly without taking measures that actively flout and rip up its role. Which would obviously cause uproar itself.
And it goes back further, as the GOP has been trampling all over America's democratic norms for years while the Democrats played nice and hoped to win the day in votes then tilt things back. Now for the Democrats it maybe too late as the game is so rigged against them and the country so polarised.
Even many Democrat moderates who used to make great plays of bipartisanship just don't believe in the system with this Court, and believe it to be entirely illegitimate and unconstitutional itself given its membership (e.g. that Thomas should be facing criminal corruption charges and not allowed to sit) and how it was appointed.
So “let’s just have a civil war anyway”. That’s your argument?
And btw lots of sane republicans can equally point to really dodgy shit the democrats have done - long before they tried to pretend the president is not mad
It isn't my argument it's my council of despair - I really don't see how this ends without a major blowup, nor a plausible way out.
Because even mainstream Democrats whose mantra used to be "don't get mad, organise", even after events like Bush v Gore that they saw as incredibly unfair to the point of pushing the limits, now believe one of the three branches of government is both illegitimate and actively hostile to them in a way that is undemocratic. So they are at a minimum going to start acting accordingly in finding ways around it and to change it.
Ditching Biden for a winning candidate - if a surefire one was available - is I suppose where you'd start. But even if they then beat Trump handily, they've still got to deal with a Supreme Court, and thus a system, that's been designed to stop them from governing.
They're going to face huge pressure to do things that will enrage Republican supporters, most of whom won't believe any Democrat victory is legitimate themselves, to the point of rebellion.
And sure, the Democrats aren't saints, by any means - far from it, especially in local politics. But come on who is the Democrat equivalent of Trump, or going back, Roger Stone, Atwater, Nixon? The Trump court (like Trump himself and his and those around him's belief he should have dictator-like powers) is unprecedented - at least in modern times.
And when one side brings guns, the other will reach for theirs.
I just really don't see how this ends another way, given the GOP decided that the dominant strand in the GOP for a while decided America's institutions should be rigged in favour of their Gilead-like vision of their country.
They have been very successful at achieving that, in a way that means the Dems are absolutely going to face insurmountable pressure from their own side to respond in kind, seeing it as the only way to restore American democracy and save it from something resembling fascism.
Emmanuel Macron on Monday urged ministers to back Left-wing candidates to block Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party from gaining power.
The French president told ministers that “not a single vote” should go to the “far-Right” as his party appeared split on tactics heading into this weekend’s final round of voting.
Yes you’re right - I misread the poll because American pollsters do that stupid thing they do
However all the other polling is brutal for Biden. Losing New Hampshire, losing New Jersey (!!!), 72% of Americans think Biden is unfit etc etc
Biden is flying into a mountain. Dems need a new pilot
Behind in New Jersey is terrible - but has there been a New Jersey poll since the debate?
It's a Trump-Biden-RFK poll. These tend to depress the Dem score in places where there isn't much of an active campaign, because the voters are thinking of the wrong Kennedy.
It's odd that the actual voting intention polls don't seem to have shifted much though. Maybe nothing will shift them much. People have made their minds up. It kinda makes sense. The 40 something % of voters who really don't want Trump to be president don't care if Biden is half-dead.
I've said this a lot over the years. Often, things that really ought to matter, don't. As you say, in a forced choice situation, Democrats will still prefer Biden to Trump, even if they do not want Biden.
Yes you’re right - I misread the poll because American pollsters do that stupid thing they do
However all the other polling is brutal for Biden. Losing New Hampshire, losing New Jersey (!!!), 72% of Americans think Biden is unfit etc etc
Biden is flying into a mountain. Dems need a new pilot
Behind in New Jersey is terrible - but has there been a New Jersey poll since the debate?
It's a Trump-Biden-RFK poll. These tend to depress the Dem score in places where there isn't much of an active campaign, because the voters are thinking of the wrong Kennedy.
Trump is crushing it now, tho
Trump has taken a two point lead over Biden in New Hampshire per just released poll. Trump is now even or leading in polls for Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, all states Joe Biden won by 7 points or more in 2020.
I wonder if the tapes of Biden interviews about the classified documents will leak at some point. I presume it is very similar to his debate performance, where the written transcripts don't do justice to how non compos mentis he sounds.
It's odd that the actual voting intention polls don't seem to have shifted much though. Maybe nothing will shift them much. People have made their minds up. It kinda makes sense. The 40 something % of voters who really don't want Trump to be president don't care if Biden is half-dead.
I've said this a lot over the years. Often, things that really ought to matter, don't. As you say, in a forced choice situation, Democrats will still prefer Biden to Trump, even if they do not want Biden.
But they might not be motivated on turning out. Trump has a pretty hard ceiling and a good Democratic turnout will beat it, the raw numbers are there but I point you to 2016 and Clinton, a divisive figure who didnt hold enough public enthusiasm. Led the popular vote but that marmite situation lost it for the Dems. In 2020 it was all about getting Trump out and Biden was a very good fit, dont frighten the horses sunny side up kind of guy. He is not any more.
I wonder if the tapes of Biden interviews about the classified documents will leak at some point. I presume it is very similar to his debate performance, where the written transcripts don't do justice to how non compos mentis he sounds.
Yes quite. Those tapes
Eventually this could lead to court cases? If Biden aides had damning evidence that the POTUS was demented and unfit for office, and then lied about it - that sounds potentially criminal?
Also that interview he did with Time
“Even the liberal media can’t sugar coat just how bad it is. Biden Threatens To Beat Up Journalist and Other Highlights From Time Magazine Interview”
Lethal rapids, foot rot... and a close encounter with machete-wielding 'river pirates'. The incredible story of how a middle-aged British IT worker became the first man to kayak down the Amazon
From Joe Biden’s Time magazine interview, where PB accused me of being a Trumpite fascist, for pointing out that Biden is gaga
"We, on the climate side, have come along and we've done everything that is reasonably—and three other countries are the reason we're in the problem we're in," Biden said. "But what happens if all of a sudden, on the Amazon, they're starting to clear, vast swaths of land, cut down forests, etc. Back when Dick Lugar was alive, he and I started something back in the '90s, where we said—late '80s, excuse me—where we said to, in the Amazon, they said, look, if you, we'll make a deal with you Brazil. You don't cut your forest, we'll pay you not to do it. We'll pay you not to do it, we have to prevent— And that's why we're working so hard to make sure Angola can be in a position that they have more solar capacity than almost any place in the world, to help that whole continent."
I do have a sheet for the entirity, but the chance of having timely refreshes on the night for the early results with that one is near enough zero. I'll be making more smaller ones for later on...
"Le Pen’s economics policies would be a disaster for France, says Farage Reform UK leader warns that hard-Right National Rally would be ‘even worse for the economy than the current lot’"
Question about BF Exchange for some experienced heads.
I sometimes put longshot lays on in the hopes someone will snap it up.
Then maybe 2 weeks later someone has marched it, and some money drops into my account - but there doesn’t appear to be a way you can check it.
Is there a ‘recently matched’ section in betting history? It only orders them by ‘recently placed’ - so something I put as a longshot lay 2 weeks ago ends up being difficult to find, and then I’m having to check through all my unmatched bets on every market to find it.
Just go to betting activity and filter by date + matched
Emmanuel Macron on Monday urged ministers to back Left-wing candidates to block Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party from gaining power.
The French president told ministers that “not a single vote” should go to the “far-Right” as his party appeared split on tactics heading into this weekend’s final round of voting.
Emmanuel Macron on Monday urged ministers to back Left-wing candidates to block Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party from gaining power.
The French president told ministers that “not a single vote” should go to the “far-Right” as his party appeared split on tactics heading into this weekend’s final round of voting.
What was the last poll reported that has not particularly-adjusted figures in the headline? Seeing some *interesting* trends here at Survation HQ in current fieldwork
It isn't as cut and dry as the lady who was accused of being racist because she was fighting over a bike, when in reality the mob where stealing her bike from her, which wasn't show on the original video.
Sir Keir Starmer has been accused of planning to be a “part-time prime minister” after suggesting he would want to finish work at 6pm on Fridays.
The Labour leader said that on the last working day of the week he does “not do a work-related thing after 6pm pretty well come what may”, saying he wanted to protect time spent with his family.
He added that he planned to maintain the habit if his party was to be elected on Thursday.
Note to the world, you can't have anything happen on Friday evenings.
While I think Starmer's general point is right, just as Cameron had a balance. Like his never use private healthcare, it does rather concern me that you have such hard and fast rules to your life.
Obviously if there was an international incident he would work, but his wife is Jewish and Friday Night Dinner is very important to her. He’s said it several times before.
Well, I liked the show too, but he can watch it on demand.
KEIR ! stop phoning that Joe Biden ,FND is on TELE
If memory serves correctly, you weren't allowed to watch television on the Jewish Sabbath, so the television programme "Friday Night Dinner" about a Jewish family dinner on Friday Night, could not be watched live by a Jewish family having dinner on a Friday, since the programme was transmitted on Friday night.
Dinnerception!
(Incidentally, was this timing in fact the joke and I'm thick for not getting it?)
It comes after the BBC revealed earlier this year that the highest UK student debt was more than £231,000. Around three months later, that figure has now hit £252,000.
He pointed out that the data suggests that less than 50 people owe at least £10m between them.
They do mention that the loan gets wiped after 30 years later on, but the way people interviewed respond it is like they think they are actually going to be asked to repay it all or that if it the principle was bit less they wouldn't be paying as much per month.
A more worrying question is with less and less people paying off the principle, is there going to be a black hole that eventually the government i.e. us will have to foot. I believe in the past they have sold off some of the loan book and let a private company take the risk on interest rates / repayments.
I think the US is in a dangerous place when both sides are now openly and consistently attacking judges and their legal rulings.
I've just read a synopsis of Roberts' ruling and it is quite absurd in relation to Trump's role in 6th January Capital Building storming.
Should a vengeful Trump be elected President he is perfectly entitled in his capacity as President to summarily, and without trial, order the execution of the Biden's, the Clintons, the Obamas and anyone else he doesn't like.
I am no lawyer but I have the benefit of a grain of common sense and this ruling is utterly insane unless the partisan stacking of the cards in favour of Trump immunity is the point all along.
Things are starting to inch back in for the Conservatives. Far too late now however, only two days of campaigning left.
I believed at the start of the campaign a hung Parliament wasn't out of the realms of possibility if the Conservatives could creep back up to 30-32% and take from Labour pushing them down to the high 30s.
Labour's support has fallen (but it was never that solid to begin with) but the Conservatives haven't really crept back into the game.
Reform are now at UKIP 2013 levels, and my guess they'd get 2 seats might be an exageration. Lib Dems also being squeezed, along with the Greens and for all Davey's antics, I could see them finishing on only the high teens in terms of seats......
The LDs will do far better than that in terms of seats.
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Reform aren't planning any of that. They're all about immigration.
They have some insane spending plans. They plan to have zero net immigration.
Reform would crash the economy if elected. Luckily, they will be nowhere near the levers of power.
Got two leaflets today. Reform and Labour (again), so now three in total.
Chucked them both, but I did glance at the Reform one. The 'net zero immigration' just made me roar with laughter. They'd never achieve that, and given the population crisis incoming, you wouldn't WANT to achieve that.
If you had a credible policy to pay people to have a lot of babies here, you could.
But, firstly I doubt their supporters would cough up a bean and, second, no-one has managed to get that to work- worldwide.
Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.
He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.
I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
This election has seen most attention paid to MRP polling. Yet all of us, pretty much, have said words to the effect, that "whatever the national position seat X will not come out as predicted in the MRP". This makes me think that MRP may not be a good guide to final results, especially in very close contests. My forecast therefore has paid more attention to UNS and general polling, together with a sense that shy Tories remain a thing. This is why I have ruled out a Tory ELE, and remain sceptical of the toppy forecasts for both Labour and the Lib Dems. Although there is a lot of postal voting, it is clearly not too late for a Tory swing back, so despite the urgent need for a punishment beating for the party that has so comprehensively failed since 2016, I'm not sure it will happen. However if, after the election, the Tories are still in the hands of Braverman and Patel, then I could see the most blood curdling forecasts for tory decimation still happening... but at the next general election.
It comes after the BBC revealed earlier this year that the highest UK student debt was more than £231,000. Around three months later, that figure has now hit £252,000.
He pointed out that the data suggests that less than 50 people owe at least £10m between them.
They do mention that the loan gets wiped after 30 years later on, but the way people interviewed respond it is like they think they are actually going to be asked to repay it all or that if it the principle was bit less they wouldn't be paying as much per month.
A more worrying question is with less and less people paying off the principle, is there going to be a black hole that eventually the government i.e. us will have to foot. I believe in the past they have sold off some of the loan book and let a private company take the risk on interest rates / repayments.
It is that perception by graduates of an impossible loan hanging over them that is so politically damaging. It is yet another incidence of the Cameron government (G Osborne, prop) being ‘clever’ and shooting itself in the foot by refusing to make it a graduate tax to be paid above some threshold income, as originally proposed by its education team.
Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.
He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.
I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.
He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
It comes after the BBC revealed earlier this year that the highest UK student debt was more than £231,000. Around three months later, that figure has now hit £252,000.
He pointed out that the data suggests that less than 50 people owe at least £10m between them.
They do mention that the loan gets wiped after 30 years later on, but the way people interviewed respond it is like they think they are actually going to be asked to repay it all or that if it the principle was bit less they wouldn't be paying as much per month.
A more worrying question is with less and less people paying off the principle, is there going to be a black hole that eventually the government i.e. us will have to foot. I believe in the past they have sold off some of the loan book and let a private company take the risk on interest rates / repayments.
It is that perception by graduates of an impossible loan hanging over them that is so politically damaging. It is yet another incidence of the Cameron government (G Osborne, prop) being ‘clever’ and shooting itself in the foot by refusing to make it a graduate tax to be paid above some threshold income, as originally proposed by its education team.
This is true, although its a bit worrying that people who have gone to university, in one of the case studies for 6-7 years and they don't understand the loan scheme they have signed up to. Its really not that complicated.
This election has seen most attention paid to MRP polling. Yet all of us, pretty much, have said words to the effect, that "whatever the national position seat X will not come out as predicted in the MRP". This makes me think that MRP may not be a good guide to final results, especially in very close contests. My forecast therefore has paid more attention to UNS and general polling, together with a sense that shy Tories remain a thing. This is why I have ruled out a Tory ELE, and remain sceptical of the toppy forecasts for both Labour and the Lib Dems. Although there is a lot of postal voting, it is clearly not too late for a Tory swing back, so despite the urgent need for a punishment beating for the party that has so comprehensively failed since 2016, I'm not sure it will happen. However if, after the election, the Tories are still in the hands of Braverman and Patel, then I could see the most blood curdling forecasts for tory decimation still happening... but at the next general election.
I was going to like this post but as usual you simply couldn't help yourself and the last few sentences were hyperbolic and extremely silly.
Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.
He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.
I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.
He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
Compare Charles Kennedy. The people who have influence on him also derive all their influence over the wider world from him. It's not that they want him to be president but that they want to be first lady etc.
Things are starting to inch back in for the Conservatives. Far too late now however, only two days of campaigning left.
I believed at the start of the campaign a hung Parliament wasn't out of the realms of possibility if the Conservatives could creep back up to 30-32% and take from Labour pushing them down to the high 30s.
Labour's support has fallen (but it was never that solid to begin with) but the Conservatives haven't really crept back into the game.
Reform are now at UKIP 2013 levels, and my guess they'd get 2 seats might be an exageration. Lib Dems also being squeezed, along with the Greens and for all Davey's antics, I could see them finishing on only the high teens in terms of seats......
The LDs will do far better than that in terms of seats.
Going into the election on 15 seats, and with the same vote, more concentrated, as 2019, I think the Lib Dems would still, on a very bad night, manage to get into the mid 20s. If the MRPs are right, then they can expect a minimum of 30-35. However, and although their campaign has been regarded as a success, whilst the Tory campaign is already descending into recriminations, the fact is that the Lib Dem poll rating has been stuck at 11%. Without getting into the low/mid teens, I fear a night of near misses and disappointment in target seats, whilst still facing obliteration in non targets.
Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.
He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.
I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.
He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
It comes after the BBC revealed earlier this year that the highest UK student debt was more than £231,000. Around three months later, that figure has now hit £252,000.
He pointed out that the data suggests that less than 50 people owe at least £10m between them.
They do mention that the loan gets wiped after 30 years later on, but the way people interviewed respond it is like they think they are actually going to be asked to repay it all or that if it the principle was bit less they wouldn't be paying as much per month.
A more worrying question is with less and less people paying off the principle, is there going to be a black hole that eventually the government i.e. us will have to foot. I believe in the past they have sold off some of the loan book and let a private company take the risk on interest rates / repayments.
It is that perception by graduates of an impossible loan hanging over them that is so politically damaging. It is yet another incidence of the Cameron government (G Osborne, prop) being ‘clever’ and shooting itself in the foot by refusing to make it a graduate tax to be paid above some threshold income, as originally proposed by its education team.
This is true, although its a bit worrying that people who have gone to university, in one of the case studies for 6-7 years and they don't understand the loan scheme they have signed up to. Its really not that complicated.
The graduates may well understand it. They really do have a loan hanging over them that they do need to pay off once they reach the level to which they aspire and it is that aspiration, however unrealistic, that kills the Conservative Party. Ironically, George Osborne played on those same aspirations with his inheritance tax announcement that killed the election that never was so he should have understood at whose foot he was pointing his fiscal shotgun.
This election has seen most attention paid to MRP polling. Yet all of us, pretty much, have said words to the effect, that "whatever the national position seat X will not come out as predicted in the MRP". This makes me think that MRP may not be a good guide to final results, especially in very close contests. My forecast therefore has paid more attention to UNS and general polling, together with a sense that shy Tories remain a thing. This is why I have ruled out a Tory ELE, and remain sceptical of the toppy forecasts for both Labour and the Lib Dems. Although there is a lot of postal voting, it is clearly not too late for a Tory swing back, so despite the urgent need for a punishment beating for the party that has so comprehensively failed since 2016, I'm not sure it will happen. However if, after the election, the Tories are still in the hands of Braverman and Patel, then I could see the most blood curdling forecasts for tory decimation still happening... but at the next general election.
I was going to like this post but as usual you simply couldn't help yourself and the last few sentences were hyperbolic and extremely silly.
I think you underestimate how unpopular these figures are outside the Tory bubble. Giving them the decisive voice after the 2024 GE will not bring the Party back to the Cameronite centre, which is where they need to be to win. That's not silly, it's just a statement of the obvious.
Things are starting to inch back in for the Conservatives. Far too late now however, only two days of campaigning left.
I believed at the start of the campaign a hung Parliament wasn't out of the realms of possibility if the Conservatives could creep back up to 30-32% and take from Labour pushing them down to the high 30s.
Labour's support has fallen (but it was never that solid to begin with) but the Conservatives haven't really crept back into the game.
Reform are now at UKIP 2013 levels, and my guess they'd get 2 seats might be an exageration. Lib Dems also being squeezed, along with the Greens and for all Davey's antics, I could see them finishing on only the high teens in terms of seats......
The LDs will do far better than that in terms of seats.
Going into the election on 15 seats, and with the same vote, more concentrated, as 2019, I think the Lib Dems would still, on a very bad night, manage to get into the mid 20s. If the MRPs are right, then they can expect a minimum of 30-35. However, and although their campaign has been regarded as a success, whilst the Tory campaign is already descending into recriminations, the fact is that the Lib Dem poll rating has been stuck at 11%. Without getting into the low/mid teens, I fear a night of near misses and disappointment in target seats, whilst still facing obliteration in non targets.
Bear in mind you may be helped by the Tory vote splintering in some of your targets, which are sniper like.
It's not like previous LD-Tory marginal fights where almost everyone clusters round those two.
It comes after the BBC revealed earlier this year that the highest UK student debt was more than £231,000. Around three months later, that figure has now hit £252,000.
He pointed out that the data suggests that less than 50 people owe at least £10m between them.
They do mention that the loan gets wiped after 30 years later on, but the way people interviewed respond it is like they think they are actually going to be asked to repay it all or that if it the principle was bit less they wouldn't be paying as much per month.
A more worrying question is with less and less people paying off the principle, is there going to be a black hole that eventually the government i.e. us will have to foot. I believe in the past they have sold off some of the loan book and let a private company take the risk on interest rates / repayments.
It is that perception by graduates of an impossible loan hanging over them that is so politically damaging. It is yet another incidence of the Cameron government (G Osborne, prop) being ‘clever’ and shooting itself in the foot by refusing to make it a graduate tax to be paid above some threshold income, as originally proposed by its education team.
This is true, although its a bit worrying that people who have gone to university, in one of the case studies for 6-7 years and they don't understand the loan scheme they have signed up to. Its really not that complicated.
The graduates may well understand it. They really do have a loan hanging over them that they do need to pay off once they reach the level to which they aspire and it is that aspiration, however unrealistic, that kills the Conservative Party. Ironically, George Osborne played on those same aspirations with his inheritance tax announcement that killed the election that never was so he should have understood at whose foot he was pointing his fiscal shotgun.
The case study, the guy clearly didn't understand it, as he was worrying about the principle increasing. He is in his 40s, he owes £130k, he is never paying it off, so its totally irrelevant what the principle is this month versus a few months ago.
It comes after the BBC revealed earlier this year that the highest UK student debt was more than £231,000. Around three months later, that figure has now hit £252,000.
He pointed out that the data suggests that less than 50 people owe at least £10m between them.
They do mention that the loan gets wiped after 30 years later on, but the way people interviewed respond it is like they think they are actually going to be asked to repay it all or that if it the principle was bit less they wouldn't be paying as much per month.
A more worrying question is with less and less people paying off the principle, is there going to be a black hole that eventually the government i.e. us will have to foot. I believe in the past they have sold off some of the loan book and let a private company take the risk on interest rates / repayments.
It is that perception by graduates of an impossible loan hanging over them that is so politically damaging. It is yet another incidence of the Cameron government (G Osborne, prop) being ‘clever’ and shooting itself in the foot by refusing to make it a graduate tax to be paid above some threshold income, as originally proposed by its education team.
This is true, although its a bit worrying that people who have gone to university, in one of the case studies for 6-7 years and they don't understand the loan scheme they have signed up to. Its really not that complicated.
The graduates may well understand it. They really do have a loan hanging over them that they do need to pay off once they reach the level to which they aspire and it is that aspiration, however unrealistic, that kills the Conservative Party. Ironically, George Osborne played on those same aspirations with his inheritance tax announcement that killed the election that never was so he should have understood at whose foot he was pointing his fiscal shotgun.
It's possibly one reason why the Conservatives have lost so many young people: they've whopped a huge extra tax on them.
Who wants to pay an extra 9% tax for the whole of their careers?
Things are starting to inch back in for the Conservatives. Far too late now however, only two days of campaigning left.
I believed at the start of the campaign a hung Parliament wasn't out of the realms of possibility if the Conservatives could creep back up to 30-32% and take from Labour pushing them down to the high 30s.
Labour's support has fallen (but it was never that solid to begin with) but the Conservatives haven't really crept back into the game.
Reform are now at UKIP 2013 levels, and my guess they'd get 2 seats might be an exageration. Lib Dems also being squeezed, along with the Greens and for all Davey's antics, I could see them finishing on only the high teens in terms of seats......
The LDs will do far better than that in terms of seats.
Going into the election on 15 seats, and with the same vote, more concentrated, as 2019, I think the Lib Dems would still, on a very bad night, manage to get into the mid 20s. If the MRPs are right, then they can expect a minimum of 30-35. However, and although their campaign has been regarded as a success, whilst the Tory campaign is already descending into recriminations, the fact is that the Lib Dem poll rating has been stuck at 11%. Without getting into the low/mid teens, I fear a night of near misses and disappointment in target seats, whilst still facing obliteration in non targets.
Bear in mind you may be helped by the Tory vote splintering in some of your targets, which are sniper like.
It's not like previous LD-Tory marginal fights where almost everyone clusters round those two.
Yes, and I think that is why majorities will be so small. Having had so many elections where the Tory machine makes the difference, it would be a new situation if the Lib Dems have out fought the Conservatives, so I'm still sceptical.
It comes after the BBC revealed earlier this year that the highest UK student debt was more than £231,000. Around three months later, that figure has now hit £252,000.
He pointed out that the data suggests that less than 50 people owe at least £10m between them.
They do mention that the loan gets wiped after 30 years later on, but the way people interviewed respond it is like they think they are actually going to be asked to repay it all or that if it the principle was bit less they wouldn't be paying as much per month.
A more worrying question is with less and less people paying off the principle, is there going to be a black hole that eventually the government i.e. us will have to foot. I believe in the past they have sold off some of the loan book and let a private company take the risk on interest rates / repayments.
It is that perception by graduates of an impossible loan hanging over them that is so politically damaging. It is yet another incidence of the Cameron government (G Osborne, prop) being ‘clever’ and shooting itself in the foot by refusing to make it a graduate tax to be paid above some threshold income, as originally proposed by its education team.
This is true, although its a bit worrying that people who have gone to university, in one of the case studies for 6-7 years and they don't understand the loan scheme they have signed up to. Its really not that complicated.
The graduates may well understand it. They really do have a loan hanging over them that they do need to pay off once they reach the level to which they aspire and it is that aspiration, however unrealistic, that kills the Conservative Party. Ironically, George Osborne played on those same aspirations with his inheritance tax announcement that killed the election that never was so he should have understood at whose foot he was pointing his fiscal shotgun.
It's possibly one reason why the Conservatives have lost so many young people: they've whopped a huge extra tax on them.
Who wants to pay an extra 9% tax for the whole of their careers?
The problem is what are the options? We have a loan system that is basically a graduate tax. 50% of kids now go to university, so funding this out of general taxation is huge. Any suggestion that perhaps not sending quite so many or not full time and that is politically unacceptable to all parents as their little Johnny is special and not fair if they don't go full time, live away from home, get the full university experience.
This isn't how it works in many European countries. The elite go away to elite institutions, most stay local, many are part-time mixed with work and continue to live at home. So they never run up £50-100k in loans.
Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.
He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.
I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.
He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
Reminds me of when Jim Hacker became PM and found he had very little to actually do.
Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.
He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.
I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.
He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
Good morning.
One of the awful things about Sunak’s attack on Starmer is the apparent lack of awareness of what Friday night means. He really is hopeless as a politician.
On which subject, if you’ve never seen Friday Night Dinner then it’s highly recommended. Great comedy.
I love the fact that Keir is showing the way with something that matters. I’m sick and tired of Sunak’s nasty little attempt to normalise work-until-you-drop ethics in Britain. It may be de rigueur in Silicon Valley start-ups but it does not make for a happier world.
It comes after the BBC revealed earlier this year that the highest UK student debt was more than £231,000. Around three months later, that figure has now hit £252,000.
He pointed out that the data suggests that less than 50 people owe at least £10m between them.
They do mention that the loan gets wiped after 30 years later on, but the way people interviewed respond it is like they think they are actually going to be asked to repay it all or that if it the principle was bit less they wouldn't be paying as much per month.
A more worrying question is with less and less people paying off the principle, is there going to be a black hole that eventually the government i.e. us will have to foot. I believe in the past they have sold off some of the loan book and let a private company take the risk on interest rates / repayments.
It is that perception by graduates of an impossible loan hanging over them that is so politically damaging. It is yet another incidence of the Cameron government (G Osborne, prop) being ‘clever’ and shooting itself in the foot by refusing to make it a graduate tax to be paid above some threshold income, as originally proposed by its education team.
This is true, although its a bit worrying that people who have gone to university, in one of the case studies for 6-7 years and they don't understand the loan scheme they have signed up to. Its really not that complicated.
The graduates may well understand it. They really do have a loan hanging over them that they do need to pay off once they reach the level to which they aspire and it is that aspiration, however unrealistic, that kills the Conservative Party. Ironically, George Osborne played on those same aspirations with his inheritance tax announcement that killed the election that never was so he should have understood at whose foot he was pointing his fiscal shotgun.
It's possibly one reason why the Conservatives have lost so many young people: they've whopped a huge extra tax on them.
Who wants to pay an extra 9% tax for the whole of their careers?
Given the amount of crow the Lib Dems have had to eat after Cameron forced tuition fees on the coalition, there is a small sense of karma in this
However if, after the election, the Tories are still in the hands of Braverman and Patel, then I could see the most blood curdling forecasts for tory decimation still happening... but at the next general election.
Spot on post and this part nails it.
I think, in some ways sadly, that this is precisely what will happen. They will listen to the headbangers telling them they lost because they weren’t right-wing enough. They’ll even further lurch to the right, where they will take a hammering next election: possibly every bit as big as this one if not more so.
Only then, in the 2030’s, will the Conservative Party renew itself as a sensible party for Government.
Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.
He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.
I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.
He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
Good morning.
One of the awful things about Sunak’s attack on Starmer is the apparent lack of awareness of what Friday night means. He really is hopeless as a politician.
On which subject, if you’ve never seen Friday Night Dinner then it’s highly recommended. Great comedy.
I love the fact that Keir is showing the way with something that matters. I’m sick and tired of Sunak’s nasty little attempt to normalise work-until-you-drop ethics in Britain. It may be de rigueur in Silicon Valley start-ups but it does not make for a happier world.
Slowly starts to step away after realising still in my office 24hrs after I arrived....
Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.
He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.
I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.
He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
Good morning.
One of the awful things about Sunak’s attack on Starmer is the apparent lack of awareness of what Friday night means. He really is hopeless as a politician.
On which subject, if you’ve never seen Friday Night Dinner then it’s highly recommended. Great comedy.
I love the fact that Keir is showing the way with something that matters. I’m sick and tired of Sunak’s nasty little attempt to normalise work-until-you-drop ethics in Britain. It may be de rigueur in Silicon Valley start-ups but it does not make for a happier world.
Or necessarily a more efficient one. I always liked George Soros's view that the best asset managers need "time to hang heavily on their hands" to come up with their best ideas. Our Society prefers Hares to Tortoises, but fails to remember who won the race.
Comments
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-energy-minister-announces-discovery-multiple-oil-gas-fields-2024-07-01/
Which sports league is getting brought this time?
Ball boy.
But the Republicans really set the course for a civil war by rigging SCOTUS with corrupt partisan judges to the point it's very difficult to see how an elected Democrat government can function properly without taking measures that actively flout and rip up its role. Which would obviously cause uproar itself.
And it goes back further, as the GOP has been trampling all over America's democratic norms for years while the Democrats played nice and hoped to win the day in votes then tilt things back. Now for the Democrats it maybe too late as the game is so rigged against them and the country so polarised.
Even many Democrat moderates who used to make great plays of bipartisanship just don't believe in the system with this Court, and believe it to be entirely illegitimate and unconstitutional itself given its membership (e.g. that Thomas should be facing criminal corruption charges and not allowed to sit) and how it was appointed.
And btw lots of sane republicans can equally point to really dodgy shit the democrats have done - long before they tried to pretend the president is not mad
Nonetheless a chunky Trump lead
in that way. I mean, anyone can see it’s a six point lead, but it would be useful to know the changes.
He’s quite an outre figure for a pollster, I’m sure Mr Redfield and Mr Wilton would consider him somewhat gauche.
Who do you think won the Debate?
Donald Trump: 52%
Joe Biden: 22%
Undecided: 26%
New Hampshire post-debate poll from St. Anslem (change from December):
Trump 44 (+5)
Biden 42 (-7)
Their last two polls were Biden +10 and Biden +9.
Democrats lead the generic ballot by 3, which means Biden is trailing generic Democrats by FIVE POINTS...
“Harry Enten on new poll for Biden -- I have never seen numbers this bad for an incumbent president during my lifetime.”
https://x.com/citizenfreepres/status/1807748147097014455?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
I sometimes put longshot lays on in the hopes someone will snap it up.
Then maybe 2 weeks later someone has marched it, and some money drops into my account - but there doesn’t appear to be a way you can check it.
Is there a ‘recently matched’ section in betting history? It only orders them by ‘recently placed’ - so something I put as a longshot lay 2 weeks ago ends up being difficult to find, and then I’m having to check through all my unmatched bets on every market to find it.
However all the other polling is brutal for Biden. Losing New Hampshire, losing New Jersey (!!!), 72% of Americans think Biden is unfit etc etc
Biden is flying into a mountain. Dems need a new pilot
Joe Biden cannot win this election. There is time to make way for someone who can.
ANDREW SULLIVAN"
https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/for-gods-sake-withdraw
Far too late now however, only two days of campaigning left.
I believed at the start of the campaign a hung Parliament wasn't out of the realms of possibility if the Conservatives could creep back up to 30-32% and take from Labour pushing them down to the high 30s.
Labour's support has fallen (but it was never that solid to begin with) but the Conservatives haven't really crept back into the game.
Reform are now at UKIP 2013 levels, and my guess they'd get 2 seats might be an exageration.
Lib Dems also being squeezed, along with the Greens and for all Davey's antics, I could see them finishing on only the high teens in terms of seats......
Chucked them both, but I did glance at the Reform one. The 'net zero immigration' just made me roar with laughter. They'd never achieve that, and given the population crisis incoming, you wouldn't WANT to achieve that.
“7/1 model update.
Debate beginning to take a real bite out of Biden.”
https://x.com/natesilver538/status/1807909113768137059?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Clearly a week or so to wait it out for some polls is one thing but after that? Democrats have to hope the polls show a real dent in their numbers or else they got a problem of being in no mans land. If there is a dent they face another problem, who is wielding the knife. There is enough outright hositility to Trump for the Democrats to win ok.
As regards the headline article, I'd be surprised if Labour are not at 40%, I think its a differential turnout issue but equally Im not sure the Conservatives are going to be quite as bad as the polls suggest. Its the popular thing to do to slag them off but that wont carry to everyone when they mark the ballot.
On another unrelated note, it appears the Americans are very concerned someone is going to attack one of its facilities in Europe in the next 7-10 days. Bear in mind the US intelligence is good at spotting a lot of these things coming even if not absolutely time and target specific.
Because even mainstream Democrats whose mantra used to be "don't get mad, organise", even after events like Bush v Gore that they saw as incredibly unfair to the point of pushing the limits, now believe one of the three branches of government is both illegitimate and actively hostile to them in a way that is undemocratic. So they are at a minimum going to start acting accordingly in finding ways around it and to change it.
Ditching Biden for a winning candidate - if a surefire one was available - is I suppose where you'd start. But even if they then beat Trump handily, they've still got to deal with a Supreme Court, and thus a system, that's been designed to stop them from governing.
They're going to face huge pressure to do things that will enrage Republican supporters, most of whom won't believe any Democrat victory is legitimate themselves, to the point of rebellion.
And sure, the Democrats aren't saints, by any means - far from it, especially in local politics. But come on who is the Democrat equivalent of Trump, or going back, Roger Stone, Atwater, Nixon? The Trump court (like Trump himself and his and those around him's belief he should have dictator-like powers) is unprecedented - at least in modern times.
And when one side brings guns, the other will reach for theirs.
I just really don't see how this ends another way, given the GOP decided that the dominant strand in the GOP for a while decided America's institutions should be rigged in favour of their Gilead-like vision of their country.
They have been very successful at achieving that, in a way that means the Dems are absolutely going to face insurmountable pressure from their own side to respond in kind, seeing it as the only way to restore American democracy and save it from something resembling fascism.
The French president told ministers that “not a single vote” should go to the “far-Right” as his party appeared split on tactics heading into this weekend’s final round of voting.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/07/01/macron-votes-for-hard-left-to-stop-le-pens-rn-gaining-power/
Here I’ll help
“biden won New Jersey by 16 in 2020…
If this poll is even *remotely* close, we are headed for a historic national landslide.”
https://x.com/geiger_capital/status/1806741020891021465?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Edit to edit to add: some say this is pre-debate!
https://www.epsilontheory.com/joe-biden-and-the-common-knowledge-game/
Trump has taken a two point lead over Biden in New Hampshire per just released poll. Trump is now even or leading in polls for Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, all states Joe Biden won by 7 points or more in 2020.
https://x.com/claytravis/status/1807867549150810479?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
The most awkward radio interview of all time, with BBC producer Grace Wyndham Goldie in 1979, at just after 19 mins on this link.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0020p2x
Eventually this could lead to court cases? If Biden aides had damning evidence that the POTUS was demented and unfit for office, and then lied about it - that sounds potentially criminal?
Also that interview he did with Time
“Even the liberal media can’t sugar coat just how bad it is. Biden Threatens To Beat Up Journalist and Other Highlights From Time Magazine Interview”
https://x.com/jonasjbc/status/1798627346406097168?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
I mentioned this on here. The Time interview. I said “look, he’s fucking senile”. The usual suspects banged on about his stutter
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-13588801/Lethal-rapids-foot-rot-close-encounter-machete-wielding-river-pirates-incredible-story-middle-aged-British-worker-kayak-Amazon-just-impress-grandchildren.html
Ed......we have booked you a holiday for after the GE.
"We, on the climate side, have come along and we've done everything that is reasonably—and three other countries are the reason we're in the problem we're in," Biden said. "But what happens if all of a sudden, on the Amazon, they're starting to clear, vast swaths of land, cut down forests, etc. Back when Dick Lugar was alive, he and I started something back in the '90s, where we said—late '80s, excuse me—where we said to, in the Amazon, they said, look, if you, we'll make a deal with you Brazil. You don't cut your forest, we'll pay you not to do it. We'll pay you not to do it, we have to prevent— And that's why we're working so hard to make sure Angola can be in a position that they have more solar capacity than almost any place in the world, to help that whole continent."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGAKyCEUv44
General Election Spreadsheet for the start of the evening (Expected results to 02:15
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TskjcRFG9P0FLFeLzU6m3hefToD1aSC8rw8tj6_H7Rg/edit?usp=sharing
It should auto-update results
"Winner by Expected declaration time by model" is the tab to look at,
"Democracy club 3" is the one that does the work - with some intermediate spreadsheets to process the data that should feed from democracy club
ATOM Feed should give a live update of results from Democracy club
***********************************************************************************************************************
https://x.com/samfr/status/1807855586416959566?s=46
This is what Damien Lyons Lowe at Survation was referring to earlier, right? The 3 polls that were out today all do adjustments beyond raw data?
Interestingly, DLL has now deleted his tweet!
I wonder if Survation might actually show the opposite to the Tory bounce…
Reform UK leader warns that hard-Right National Rally would be ‘even worse for the economy than the current lot’"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/07/01/nigel-farage-reform-uk-le-pen-right-party-disaser-france/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CL1GXCOfWI8
They NYC banker who was filmed punching somebody and lost his job....he was attacked first by a mob.
https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1807912563902144884
It isn't as cut and dry as the lady who was accused of being racist because she was fighting over a bike, when in reality the mob where stealing her bike from her, which wasn't show on the original video.
Dinnerception!
(Incidentally, was this timing in fact the joke and I'm thick for not getting it?)
He pointed out that the data suggests that less than 50 people owe at least £10m between them.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2xxp2gv4d1o
How did they rack up £250k in student loans?
They do mention that the loan gets wiped after 30 years later on, but the way people interviewed respond it is like they think they are actually going to be asked to repay it all or that if it the principle was bit less they wouldn't be paying as much per month.
A more worrying question is with less and less people paying off the principle, is there going to be a black hole that eventually the government i.e. us will have to foot. I believe in the past they have sold off some of the loan book and let a private company take the risk on interest rates / repayments.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c51yx1n15y4o
Should a vengeful Trump be elected President he is perfectly entitled in his capacity as President to summarily, and without trial, order the execution of the Biden's, the Clintons, the Obamas and anyone else he doesn't like.
I am no lawyer but I have the benefit of a grain of common sense and this ruling is utterly insane unless the partisan stacking of the cards in favour of Trump immunity is the point all along.
Only 50 days till the convention.
It would have been Nyetimber, but I can’t find it anywhere out here in the desert.
But, firstly I doubt their supporters would cough up a bean and, second, no-one has managed to get that to work- worldwide.
He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.
I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
This makes me think that MRP may not be a good guide to final results, especially in very close contests.
My forecast therefore has paid more attention to UNS and general polling, together with a sense that shy Tories remain a thing.
This is why I have ruled out a Tory ELE, and remain sceptical of the toppy forecasts for both Labour and the Lib Dems.
Although there is a lot of postal voting, it is clearly not too late for a Tory swing back, so despite the urgent need for a punishment beating for the party that has so comprehensively failed since 2016, I'm not sure it will happen.
However if, after the election, the Tories are still in the hands of Braverman and Patel, then I could see the most blood curdling forecasts for tory decimation still happening... but at the next general election.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKAeO-5saqQ
I will put him down as a floating voter leaning Tory this time around.
He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
He's at his least funny when talking about The Tories, when he just becomes a typical foam-flecked Lefty comedian.
However, and although their campaign has been regarded as a success, whilst the Tory campaign is already descending into recriminations, the fact is that the Lib Dem poll rating has been stuck at 11%.
Without getting into the low/mid teens, I fear a night of near misses and disappointment in target seats, whilst still facing obliteration in non targets.
It's not like previous LD-Tory marginal fights where almost everyone clusters round those two.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28SCSyMUKMw&t=2067s
T minus ten, nine, eight, abort...!
Who wants to pay an extra 9% tax for the whole of their careers?
This isn't how it works in many European countries. The elite go away to elite institutions, most stay local, many are part-time mixed with work and continue to live at home. So they never run up £50-100k in loans.
One of the awful things about Sunak’s attack on Starmer is the apparent lack of awareness of what Friday night means. He really is hopeless as a politician.
On which subject, if you’ve never seen Friday Night Dinner then it’s highly recommended. Great comedy.
I love the fact that Keir is showing the way with something that matters. I’m sick and tired of Sunak’s nasty little attempt to normalise work-until-you-drop ethics in Britain. It may be de rigueur in Silicon Valley start-ups but it does not make for a happier world.
I think, in some ways sadly, that this is precisely what will happen. They will listen to the headbangers telling them they lost because they weren’t right-wing enough. They’ll even further lurch to the right, where they will take a hammering next election: possibly every bit as big as this one if not more so.
Only then, in the 2030’s, will the Conservative Party renew itself as a sensible party for Government.
Britain is a moderate country.
Our Society prefers Hares to Tortoises, but fails to remember who won the race.