Priti Patel (Witham, majority 25,669, 353rd safest Tory seat), has started running Facebook ads in the last couple of days. Very unlikely the seat will change hands.
19th safest Tory seat.
If you were running those ads your biggest problem would be having to mention the name 'Priti Patel'. I don't know the constituency but that name alone would surely be a call to action for every potential voter to hunt for her nearest challenger
LOL if I posted that, you'd be calling me a racist.
So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.
As happened here a couple of years back
"How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."
I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.
And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
The Lib Dems came to our house to ask my father if he's still planning on voting Lib Dem, said he was, I questioned them on how things are going and they said Rishi's supermajority talk is working.
They have definitely picked up voters of all strands who are voting Lib Dem to stop Starmer having a supermajority and this is a prime target for it to work.
It would be really funny if the Tory scaremongering about a supermajority led to more people voting Lib Dem and so caused the loss of even more Tory seats - just to the Lib Dems rather than Labour. There would be a delicious irony in that.
My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.
They don't register very much anywhere else.
Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
Priti Patel (Witham, majority 25,669, 353rd safest Tory seat), has started running Facebook ads in the last couple of days. Very unlikely the seat will change hands.
19th safest Tory seat.
If you were running those ads your biggest problem would be having to mention the name 'Priti Patel'. I don't know the constituency but that name alone would surely be a call to action for every potential voter to hunt for her nearest challenger
LOL if I posted that, you'd be calling me a racist.
So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.
As happened here a couple of years back
"How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."
I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.
And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
Interesting. 33yrs old you say? Sounds more like the set of beliefs that are prevalent at Uni.
Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity should be out around 10am Eastern time.
6 - 3 ruling with opinions by Alito and Thomas arguing the 6 should have gone further
I mean, obviously the following is a joke and the Dems wouldn't do it: but if the ruling does accept the Trump teams legal theory then Biden could do the funniest thing and have Trump whacked. The Trump team did argue it would be legal for the President to assassinate a political rival or to do a coup, so they can't complain if Biden then does it...
Priti Patel (Witham, majority 25,669, 353rd safest Tory seat), has started running Facebook ads in the last couple of days. Very unlikely the seat will change hands.
19th safest Tory seat.
If you were running those ads your biggest problem would be having to mention the name 'Priti Patel'. I don't know the constituency but that name alone would surely be a call to action for every potential voter to hunt for her nearest challenger
LOL if I posted that, you'd be calling me a racist.
Priti Patel (Witham, majority 25,669, 353rd safest Tory seat), has started running Facebook ads in the last couple of days. Very unlikely the seat will change hands.
19th safest Tory seat.
If you were running those ads your biggest problem would be having to mention the name 'Priti Patel'. I don't know the constituency but that name alone would surely be a call to action for every potential voter to hunt for her nearest challenger
In the ad she helpfully tells you which party is the challenger:
"Priti Patel Witham's strong local voice v. Starmers Labour candidate from Luton"
That's: Priti Patel, former CCHQ A-lister parachuted in by Cameron, Witham's strong 'local' voice, btw.
She does have an address in the constituency but AFAIK her husband is a Councillor in Bexley.
Traffic light coalition government. I could live with that.
54% for Lab/Lib/Green with PR does challenge the sort of mainstream wisdom that the country is, at the end of the day, small c conservative.
One of the reasons it has looked that way is that, for a very very long time, the mainstream right has been united in one tent and the mainstream left has been split into two.
Priti Patel (Witham, majority 25,669, 353rd safest Tory seat), has started running Facebook ads in the last couple of days. Very unlikely the seat will change hands.
19th safest Tory seat.
If you were running those ads your biggest problem would be having to mention the name 'Priti Patel'. I don't know the constituency but that name alone would surely be a call to action for every potential voter to hunt for her nearest challenger
I posted earlier today that Electoral Calculus shows her margin over Labour decreasing. Now she's only 0.4% ahead, and those Facebook posts attract quite a few Reform 'critics'!
Witham was Labour in 1997 when half of the seat was in Braintree including Witham town. EC now has it closer than Braintree but all the Tory activists sent to the area have mainly been helping Cleverly rather than Patel
I feel the Lib Dems may get more than 50 seats. Up to 60. Lots of boards in Surrey. Parts of Hampshire. West Sussex and Cheltenham. S. Wiltshire I saw some around Sailsbury area. Not definite on this. What do people on here think?
When I was working a bellwhether constituency in the 80's, we used to reckon there needed to be 40 LibDem posters to every Tory before we were in trouble. It's virtue signalling to put up a LibDem sign. No risk of getting a brick through the window that you have to factor in by putting up a Conservative poster.
Posters is what LibDems do.Try and suggest there is a huge groundswell. But as I reminded someone the other day when we were going round a new development with four LibDem signs, "Aye, but the other 63 haven't publically proclaimed who they are voting for..."
Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity should be out around 10am Eastern time.
6 - 3 ruling with opinions by Alito and Thomas arguing the 6 should have gone further
I mean, obviously the following is a joke and the Dems wouldn't do it: but if the ruling does accept the Trump teams legal theory then Biden could do the funniest thing and have Trump whacked. The Trump team did argue it would be legal for the President to assassinate a political rival or to do a coup, so they can't complain if Biden then does it...
Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity should be out around 10am Eastern time.
6 - 3 ruling with opinions by Alito and Thomas arguing the 6 should have gone further
I mean, obviously the following is a joke and the Dems wouldn't do it: but if the ruling does accept the Trump teams legal theory then Biden could do the funniest thing and have Trump whacked. The Trump team did argue it would be legal for the President to assassinate a political rival or to do a coup, so they can't complain if Biden then does it...
The reality is, though, that Trump's GOP is far more likely to abuse presidential power than are the Democrats. Which is why we are where we are.
oh give over, you stick with this line the Dems never do anything wrong.
For months youve been denying theres anything wrong with Biden when there clearly is.
The man running the US is not capable of doing so.
Is there anyone on here who actually thinks that Biden IS capable of being US president?
If there is, would that person argue the same if it wasn't Trump that he was up against?
He probably still just about is.
But the idea that he can cope with another four years is pretty well exploded. (Though a large minority of the party itself think he should still run.)
It remains the case that unless he decides to step down, there's no simple way for the Democrats to dislodge him.
Also. I am not not in denial about how well labour will do in the election. I cannot see them getting over 410 seats. I could be wrong. I cannot see it.
It's around this time, i.e. 3 - 4 days before polling day that I tend to have a final look at the seat spread prices in the hope of finding a smidgen of value, coupled with minimum risk (which by definition I is something of a nonsense in terms of spread-betting I know, I know). To be honest, however, Spreadex's prices have barely moved at all, 2 seats if that, over the past 2 weeks. So not too much to get excited about unless the final polls were to indicate a clear new trend. The current mid-spread seat prices, with the sell - buy range shown in brackets, are currently as follows:
I feel the Lib Dems may get more than 50 seats. Up to 60. Lots of boards in Surrey. Parts of Hampshire. West Sussex and Cheltenham. S. Wiltshire I saw some around Sailsbury area. Not definite on this. What do people on here think?
The Lib Dems have done better when the Tories have done worse, and the Tories might end up with less than half their 2019 vote.
If something like that does happen then the Lib Dems should do very well, and it also looks likely that the awfulness of the 2019-24 Parliament will allow many left of centre voters to overlook the Coalition in favour of voting tactically to punish the Tories.
More than four in ten Democrats, 41%, said the Democratic Party should replace Biden as its presidential nominee. That included 37% of those who say they plan to vote for him.
So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.
As happened here a couple of years back
"How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."
I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.
And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
And yet food production is greater than ever before. I despair at the despair of youth. Malthus thought we would all starve as far back as the 18th Century. Things will be challenging. They always have been. The rubbish dumps of the 20th century could become the mines of the 21st. Reclaim the resources we threw away.
Priti Patel (Witham, majority 25,669, 353rd safest Tory seat), has started running Facebook ads in the last couple of days. Very unlikely the seat will change hands.
19th safest Tory seat.
If you were running those ads your biggest problem would be having to mention the name 'Priti Patel'. I don't know the constituency but athat name alone would surely be a call to action for every potential voter to hunt for her nearest challenger
LOL if I posted that, you'd be calling me a racist.
Why would race be an issue? Priti operating what appeared to be a shadow foreign policy within government would be the crucial reason for me not voting for her, that and her hangin' and floggin' agenda.
I feel the Lib Dems may get more than 50 seats. Up to 60. Lots of boards in Surrey. Parts of Hampshire. West Sussex and Cheltenham. S. Wiltshire I saw some around Sailsbury area. Not definite on this. What do people on here think?
If we're going by boards the LDs will win North Dorset at a canter. I posted this last Weds:
I'm beginning to Simon Hoare could be in trouble in my North Dorset constituency, a top 10 Tory safe seat.
Why?
1. In the locals the wards which make up this seat voted 47.9% Con, 37.8% LD, others 14.3% on a turnout of 33.25%. There were no Reform candidates and just 3 UKIP candidates across the 19 seats. 2. Since the locals nationally there has been a swing of 4% Con to LD (basically the Tories dropping from 28% to 20%). 3. North Dorset has Reform, UKIP and SDP standing alongside C, L, LD and Green. 4. Labour are doing nothing in the constituency, they have an outside candidate, no leaflets yet, no signs, nothing. 5. Orange diamonds are sprouting up everywhere; I've still yet to see any signs for any other party. Yes anecdotal, I know but it's never been like this before. 6. The LD candidate is a well-known local man. 7. Simon Hoare is a decent one-nation Tory but hardly a mover or a shaker, and his one-nation-ness will count against him with some on the right.
So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.
As happened here a couple of years back
"How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."
I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.
And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
Which resources in particular are you worried about?
As a onetime admirer of Boris I have to admit this is true
The revelations that it was he that consciously and deliberately opened the migration floodgates - to the insane extent that 1 in 30 people in Britain came in the last 3 years - has finished him forever. The Tories will likely never be forgiven for this. I hope they die on Thursday
The irony is that it's one of the few times in his life that he told the truth- he's always been upfront about being relaxed about immigration numbers. But in a sort of reverse Boy Who Cried Wolf, we were so used to disbelieving anything he said, that we all ignored it.
For this, and this alone, every patriotic Briton must vote to exterminate the Tories on Thursday
You are a disruptor and an anarchist. You are not a patriot. Your contempt for Britain seethes through almost every post.
I am one of their biggest critics but I do not believe any true patriotic Briton would wish for the extermination of the Conservative Party. They have been the most successful democratically elected party in the western world. At their best they stand for the aspirations of many Britons. Unfortunately they are currently at their worst. But the answer is NOT for them to be exterminated but for them to come back.
Shame on you.
I’m quite patriotic, but would go looking for one of my better bottles if they were exterminated.
Stand back, take the long view, and the progress our country has made has generally been when they’ve been out of power. Once in a while, they’ve promoted said progress in order to stay in power. But under the Tories no progress is going to be made that isn’t forced upon them either in parliament or by public opinion. The clue is in their name.
Where they’ve wrecked their brand, is in getting captured by an ideology more intent on wrecking stuff they don’t like than conserving stuff that they do. Indeed, they’ve even turned on some of the stuff that previously they’ve liked. A Conservative Party that goes around destroying stuff has Ratnered its own brand.
The Lib Dems came to our house to ask my father if he's still planning on voting Lib Dem, said he was, I questioned them on how things are going and they said Rishi's supermajority talk is working.
They have definitely picked up voters of all strands who are voting Lib Dem to stop Starmer having a supermajority and this is a prime target for it to work.
It would be really funny if the Tory scaremongering about a supermajority led to more people voting Lib Dem and so caused the loss of even more Tory seats - just to the Lib Dems rather than Labour. There would be a delicious irony in that.
In a close three way marginal where it is not clear who are the challengers to the Conservatives the supermajority quote could help persuade anti conservatives to vote Lib Dem rather than Labour.
If the Supreme Court rules this afternoon that Trump is NOT immune (yeah, I know, but go with it) does that give Biden the cover to withdraw?
Yes but no but yes but no !
Trump will still run whatever the SC decides this afternoon so Biden will still run too, indeed it makes Biden staying in even more likely as Trump facing more criminal prosecutions would be easier then for Biden to beat
The interesting takeaway from various vox-pops is that people's antagonism towards Johnson is he made promises he had no intention of meeting. Rather than because of Party gate.
My contempt for Johnson is that in some things he was pointing in the right direction, but failed to engage slightly and deliver when he could have done so. And that for me is the problem of the current generation of Tory leaders, plus cynical populism and the things that go with that.
Johnson could have delivered, had he been willing to have a competent chief of staff who could have done everything except the stunts.
Boris needed a Willie. He thought a willy would do, but it was busily engaged elsewhere.
So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.
As happened here a couple of years back
"How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."
I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.
And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
Interesting. 33yrs old you say? Sounds more like the set of beliefs that are prevalent at Uni.
Don't forget that 148gers is a lecturer at a uni, and probably still young enough to believe that the cool undergrads they teach are their friends, and hanging out with them in the Uni bar is in no way a bir creepy...
As a onetime admirer of Boris I have to admit this is true
The revelations that it was he that consciously and deliberately opened the migration floodgates - to the insane extent that 1 in 30 people in Britain came in the last 3 years - has finished him forever. The Tories will likely never be forgiven for this. I hope they die on Thursday
The irony is that it's one of the few times in his life that he told the truth- he's always been upfront about being relaxed about immigration numbers. But in a sort of reverse Boy Who Cried Wolf, we were so used to disbelieving anything he said, that we all ignored it.
For this, and this alone, every patriotic Briton must vote to exterminate the Tories on Thursday
You are a disruptor and an anarchist. You are not a patriot. Your contempt for Britain seethes through almost every post.
I am one of their biggest critics but I do not believe any true patriotic Briton would wish for the extermination of the Conservative Party. They have been the most successful democratically elected party in the western world. At their best they stand for the aspirations of many Britons. Unfortunately they are currently at their worst. But the answer is NOT for them to be exterminated but for them to come back.
Shame on you.
I’m quite patriotic, but would go looking for one of my better bottles if they were exterminated.
They need to go in their current format. I am amused that all those wishing for the death of the Tories are suddenly shitting themselves that they may actually get what they wished for.
Traffic light coalition government. I could live with that.
54% for Lab/Lib/Green with PR does challenge the sort of mainstream wisdom that the country is, at the end of the day, small c conservative.
A lot of votes for Starmer are small c conservative votes. One of the things that I eventually found disappointing about Corbyn was how small c conservative he was. Wanting to revisit the lost battles of the 70s and 80s, unable to conceive of anything new that didn't exist in Labour movement history.
The voters of small c conservatives may well annihilate the Tories on Thursday.
My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.
They don't register very much anywhere else.
Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.
They don't register very much anywhere else.
Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.
They don't register very much anywhere else.
Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
What is a Gail's?
A posh bakery, mainly found in London and the Home Counties plus West Bristol and the posher bits of Cheshire like Knutsford. If you don't have one your area probably isn't expensive enough https://gails.com/pages/find-us
The Lib Dems came to our house to ask my father if he's still planning on voting Lib Dem, said he was, I questioned them on how things are going and they said Rishi's supermajority talk is working.
They have definitely picked up voters of all strands who are voting Lib Dem to stop Starmer having a supermajority and this is a prime target for it to work.
It would be really funny if the Tory scaremongering about a supermajority led to more people voting Lib Dem and so caused the loss of even more Tory seats - just to the Lib Dems rather than Labour. There would be a delicious irony in that.
The social attitudes polling from More in Common (?) showed that current Lib Dem voters are pretty closely aligned with both Labour and Conservative voters. It's only Reform voters that are wildly out of sync with the rest of the electorate.
The Conservatives have abandoned that centre of gravity by chasing Reform voters and ended up in the wilderness. The strategy might have worked a little better if they'd stuck in the mid ground.
Can't read it due to paywall, but I disagree with the premise. The support for Trump is a cult of personality - policy wise any other popular Republican would do the same or more of what the voters want. For the Dems the issue is policy based - primaries are increasingly left versus centrist fights and most of the older politicians in positions of power are centrists who want to keep centrists in power. If Biden didn't rerun it would mean another fight about policies, and could mean someone like Bernie or AOC could show how popular they are with the base, even if they only succeed at pushing the final candidate to the left.
The reason none of the possible frontrunners stood against him in the primaries is that they (probably correctly) thought they would lose.
After the predicted midterm disaster didn't materialise, it was fairly inevitable that he would go only on his own terms. Anyone saying "the Democrats should have replaced him" just doesn't understand how US presidential politics works.
And I don't think a left v right fight really came into it. All of the realistic contenders weren't from the left.
Priti Patel (Witham, majority 25,669, 353rd safest Tory seat), has started running Facebook ads in the last couple of days. Very unlikely the seat will change hands.
19th safest Tory seat.
If you were running those ads your biggest problem would be having to mention the name 'Priti Patel'. I don't know the constituency but that name alone would surely be a call to action for every potential voter to hunt for her nearest challenger
I posted earlier today that Electoral Calculus shows her margin over Labour decreasing. Now she's only 0.4% ahead, and those Facebook posts attract quite a few Reform 'critics'!
Witham was Labour in 1997 when half of the seat was in Braintree including Witham town. EC now has it closer than Braintree but all the Tory activists sent to the area have mainly been helping Cleverly rather than Patel
The old Braintree constituency, which included Witham town and the area between it and Braintree, was Labour when we moved here. It was a major surprise when Tony Newton, who'd sat in Conservative cabinets, was defeated. However the Labour chap who won the seat, and held it in 2005, Alan Hurst, was a really good, helpful MP. He eventually lost to Brooks Newmark, who wasn't.
I’ve read so much about the election but so little is talked about the elephant in the room
Rishi Sunak is not white
Some voters will not vote or be v reluctant to vote for a minority PM even if most won’t admit it
It is reflected in the CON polling and the final election result though
It’s taboo to even mention it because it’s not PC to mention race and people in their bubbles like to deny racism exists
Just so we can cut to the chase, what are your view on Gay Rights? And on Ukraine?
Gay rights are an important civil liberty as people should be able to do they want but some people are obsessed with an issue that doesn’t matter to most people
You do bring up a relevent point. I don’t think the UK would vote for a gay man as a leader either . They wouldn’t publicly admit that though !
From what I saw Ukraine weren’t very good in the euros but thats to be expected given the invasion
I genuinely think you are wrong - and pretty much for the reason you state in your first paragraph. The issue doesn't matter to most people. They would simply not think it mattered whether their potential PM was gay or not. At most after the event there might be a bit of self satisfaction from many that the UK was tolerent enough to have voted for a gay leader in spite of the impression some people try to portray that we are intolerent.
I would not vote for Sunak now because he is incompetent and lightweight - but I also did not vote for Johnson for the same reason. I would not vote for Patel or Braverman because they are jackbooted authoritarians - but I also did not vote for May for the same reason.
As a onetime admirer of Boris I have to admit this is true
The revelations that it was he that consciously and deliberately opened the migration floodgates - to the insane extent that 1 in 30 people in Britain came in the last 3 years - has finished him forever. The Tories will likely never be forgiven for this. I hope they die on Thursday
The irony is that it's one of the few times in his life that he told the truth- he's always been upfront about being relaxed about immigration numbers. But in a sort of reverse Boy Who Cried Wolf, we were so used to disbelieving anything he said, that we all ignored it.
For this, and this alone, every patriotic Briton must vote to exterminate the Tories on Thursday
You are a disruptor and an anarchist. You are not a patriot. Your contempt for Britain seethes through almost every post.
I am one of their biggest critics but I do not believe any true patriotic Briton would wish for the extermination of the Conservative Party. They have been the most successful democratically elected party in the western world. At their best they stand for the aspirations of many Britons. Unfortunately they are currently at their worst. But the answer is NOT for them to be exterminated but for them to come back.
Shame on you.
I don't regard myself as patriotic in the 'my country right or wrong' sense but I do love Britain and the British.
I would be very happy to see the extermination of the Tories. I cannot see how that would be 'unpatriotic', and certainly not a cause for shame.
More than four in ten Democrats, 41%, said the Democratic Party should replace Biden as its presidential nominee. That included 37% of those who say they plan to vote for him.
Jill Biden will read that the other way around, and say that nearly 60% of the party want him to stay as the runner.
My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.
They don't register very much anywhere else.
Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
So ignore those telling you to vote Tory for the bigger boobs and a BMW, and vote LibDem for a Waitrose and more valuable house!
Can't read it due to paywall, but I disagree with the premise. The support for Trump is a cult of personality - policy wise any other popular Republican would do the same or more of what the voters want. For the Dems the issue is policy based - primaries are increasingly left versus centrist fights and most of the older politicians in positions of power are centrists who want to keep centrists in power. If Biden didn't rerun it would mean another fight about policies, and could mean someone like Bernie or AOC could show how popular they are with the base, even if they only succeed at pushing the final candidate to the left.
The reason none of the possible frontrunners stood against him in the primaries is that they (probably correctly) thought they would lose.
After the predicted midterm disaster didn't materialise, it was fairly inevitable that he would go only on his own terms. Anyone saying "the Democrats should have replaced him" just doesn't understand how US presidential politics works.
And I don't think a left v right fight really came into it. All of the realistic contenders weren't from the left.
If an open primary had been held, with debates and campaigning, and Biden had performed as he did the other night - he would not have beaten them.
The Lib Dems came to our house to ask my father if he's still planning on voting Lib Dem, said he was, I questioned them on how things are going and they said Rishi's supermajority talk is working.
They have definitely picked up voters of all strands who are voting Lib Dem to stop Starmer having a supermajority and this is a prime target for it to work.
It would be really funny if the Tory scaremongering about a supermajority led to more people voting Lib Dem and so caused the loss of even more Tory seats - just to the Lib Dems rather than Labour. There would be a delicious irony in that.
The social attitudes polling from More in Common (?) showed that current Lib Dem voters are pretty closely aligned with both Labour and Conservative voters. It's only Reform voters that are wildly out of sync with the rest of the electorate.
The Conservatives have abandoned that centre of gravity by chasing Reform voters and ended up in the wilderness. The strategy might have worked a little better if they'd stuck in the mid ground.
That old chestnut.
It only works if you have kept your core voters on board and they havent.
As a onetime admirer of Boris I have to admit this is true
The revelations that it was he that consciously and deliberately opened the migration floodgates - to the insane extent that 1 in 30 people in Britain came in the last 3 years - has finished him forever. The Tories will likely never be forgiven for this. I hope they die on Thursday
The irony is that it's one of the few times in his life that he told the truth- he's always been upfront about being relaxed about immigration numbers. But in a sort of reverse Boy Who Cried Wolf, we were so used to disbelieving anything he said, that we all ignored it.
For this, and this alone, every patriotic Briton must vote to exterminate the Tories on Thursday
You are a disruptor and an anarchist. You are not a patriot. Your contempt for Britain seethes through almost every post.
I am one of their biggest critics but I do not believe any true patriotic Briton would wish for the extermination of the Conservative Party. They have been the most successful democratically elected party in the western world. At their best they stand for the aspirations of many Britons. Unfortunately they are currently at their worst. But the answer is NOT for them to be exterminated but for them to come back.
Shame on you.
I’m quite patriotic, but would go looking for one of my better bottles if they were exterminated.
They need to go in their current format. I am amused that all those wishing for the death of the Tories are suddenly shitting themselves that they may actually get what they wished for.
As a onetime admirer of Boris I have to admit this is true
The revelations that it was he that consciously and deliberately opened the migration floodgates - to the insane extent that 1 in 30 people in Britain came in the last 3 years - has finished him forever. The Tories will likely never be forgiven for this. I hope they die on Thursday
The irony is that it's one of the few times in his life that he told the truth- he's always been upfront about being relaxed about immigration numbers. But in a sort of reverse Boy Who Cried Wolf, we were so used to disbelieving anything he said, that we all ignored it.
For this, and this alone, every patriotic Briton must vote to exterminate the Tories on Thursday
You are a disruptor and an anarchist. You are not a patriot. Your contempt for Britain seethes through almost every post.
I am one of their biggest critics but I do not believe any true patriotic Briton would wish for the extermination of the Conservative Party. They have been the most successful democratically elected party in the western world. At their best they stand for the aspirations of many Britons. Unfortunately they are currently at their worst. But the answer is NOT for them to be exterminated but for them to come back.
Shame on you.
I’m quite patriotic, but would go looking for one of my better bottles if they were exterminated.
They need to go in their current format. I am amused that all those wishing for the death of the Tories are suddenly shitting themselves that they may actually get what they wished for.
More than four in ten Democrats, 41%, said the Democratic Party should replace Biden as its presidential nominee. That included 37% of those who say they plan to vote for him.
Jill Biden will read that the other way around, and say that nearly 60% of the party want him to stay as the runner.
Joe will read it the other way round too: 'More than ten in four Democrats want me replaced. So I'm gonna carry on.'
My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.
They don't register very much anywhere else.
Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
I'm confused. How can the presence of a bakery chain in an area indicate its poshness?
I would have thought that a posh area would have a bakery run either by the same family for eight generations, or some young baking wunderkind who'd studied patisserie at the top French school.
Gail's ffs. There are more than a hundred of them now.
I feel the Lib Dems may get more than 50 seats. Up to 60. Lots of boards in Surrey. Parts of Hampshire. West Sussex and Cheltenham. S. Wiltshire I saw some around Sailsbury area. Not definite on this. What do people on here think?
The Lib Dems have done better when the Tories have done worse, and the Tories might end up with less than half their 2019 vote.
If something like that does happen then the Lib Dems should do very well, and it also looks likely that the awfulness of the 2019-24 Parliament will allow many left of centre voters to overlook the Coalition in favour of voting tactically to punish the Tories.
It's an amazing opportunity for the Lib Dems.
The opportunity for the LibDems is that the Tory vote is collapsing, and collapsing most in the sort of comfortable Home Counties seats where the LibDems tend to come a comfortable, if distant, second. The downside for them is that while their campaign has got noticed - kudos to brave Ed putting his credibility on the line - it has not broken through to capture the imagination. Winning seats purely because your opponent is less popular than you is always a risky business.
The Lib Dems came to our house to ask my father if he's still planning on voting Lib Dem, said he was, I questioned them on how things are going and they said Rishi's supermajority talk is working.
They have definitely picked up voters of all strands who are voting Lib Dem to stop Starmer having a supermajority and this is a prime target for it to work.
It would be really funny if the Tory scaremongering about a supermajority led to more people voting Lib Dem and so caused the loss of even more Tory seats - just to the Lib Dems rather than Labour. There would be a delicious irony in that.
The social attitudes polling from More in Common (?) showed that current Lib Dem voters are pretty closely aligned with both Labour and Conservative voters. It's only Reform voters that are wildly out of sync with the rest of the electorate.
The Conservatives have abandoned that centre of gravity by chasing Reform voters and ended up in the wilderness. The strategy might have worked a little better if they'd stuck in the mid ground.
That old chestnut.
It only works if you have kept your core voters on board and they havent.
I think they have actually. They are still polling c20%, and the DavidLs and BigGs will still vote for them.
Why? Just relax a bit. Election results (you know, actual votes) will be trickling in by just past 11 pm Thursday night. The outcome is not in doubt. Starmer will be kissing the ring on Friday.
I’m hugely relaxed. After a busy week I’m back in Surrey sitting with dogs watching Wimbledon.
I just need an opinion poll. Or several.
Why?
Duh. Because I enjoy politics and political betting. And I love General Elections. This one in particular. It has been the most enjoyable campaign of my life.
Elections are exciting when its a close result. This is just plain boring, the only thing of interest is what happens the Conservatives when they lose.
Elections are exciting when one's own side is looking like winning, or the side one doesn't like is looking like losing. I can see that for Conservative (or SNP) supporters this election would be boring, or at best morbidly fascinating. But for Labour supporters, Reform supporters and - with the usual caveats - Lib Dem supporters this is an exciting election.
IMHO it's exciting in at least two ways, objectively.
Fallout in short, medium and long term is unpredictable and likely to be far reaching. This will have UK wide consequence. This links with a critical national question: can Labour turn the national mood and fortunes around? No-one can call this dull.
And the relation of voting to demography, geography, pre-existing patterns and the actual result in seats for whom and where remains peculiarly unclear.
I feel the Lib Dems may get more than 50 seats. Up to 60. Lots of boards in Surrey. Parts of Hampshire. West Sussex and Cheltenham. S. Wiltshire I saw some around Sailsbury area. Not definite on this. What do people on here think?
When I was working a bellwhether constituency in the 80's, we used to reckon there needed to be 40 LibDem posters to every Tory before we were in trouble. It's virtue signalling to put up a LibDem sign. No risk of getting a brick through the window that you have to factor in by putting up a Conservative poster.
Posters is what LibDems do.Try and suggest there is a huge groundswell. But as I reminded someone the other day when we were going round a new development with four LibDem signs, "Aye, but the other 63 haven't publically proclaimed who they are voting for..."
Brick in the window and a Reform poster with a picture of Nige drinking a pint. That would probably get the person who put up the sign punched out.
So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.
As happened here a couple of years back
"How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."
I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.
And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
Which resources in particular are you worried about?
Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.
They don't register very much anywhere else.
Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
What is a Gail's?
A Greggs with 4x the price and 4x less quantity. Tastes better though.
I’ve read so much about the election but so little is talked about the elephant in the room
Rishi Sunak is not white
Some voters will not vote or be v reluctant to vote for a minority PM even if most won’t admit it
It is reflected in the CON polling and the final election result though
It’s taboo to even mention it because it’s not PC to mention race and people in their bubbles like to deny racism exists
Just so we can cut to the chase, what are your view on Gay Rights? And on Ukraine?
Gay rights are an important civil liberty as people should be able to do they want but some people are obsessed with an issue that doesn’t matter to most people
You do bring up a relevent point. I don’t think the UK would vote for a gay man as a leader either . They wouldn’t publicly admit that though !
From what I saw Ukraine weren’t very good in the euros but thats to be expected given the invasion
I genuinely think you are wrong - and pretty much for the reason you state in your first paragraph. The issue doesn't matter to most people. They would simply not think it mattered whether their potential PM was gay or not. At most after the event there might be a bit of self satisfaction from many that the UK was tolerent enough to have voted for a gay leader in spite of the impression some people try to portray that we are intolerent.
I would not vote for Sunak now because he is incompetent and lightweight - but I also did not vote for Johnson for the same reason. I would not vote for Patel or Braverman because they are jackbooted authoritarians - but I also did not vote for May for the same reason.
Some things matter. Others really don't.
I'm not sure that this is the case, much as we all on here might like to think it is. Plenty of people out there and if we look at the 17-20% who say they might vote for Reform I can't believe that some would hold such views.
I feel the Lib Dems may get more than 50 seats. Up to 60. Lots of boards in Surrey. Parts of Hampshire. West Sussex and Cheltenham. S. Wiltshire I saw some around Sailsbury area. Not definite on this. What do people on here think?
The Lib Dems have done better when the Tories have done worse, and the Tories might end up with less than half their 2019 vote.
If something like that does happen then the Lib Dems should do very well, and it also looks likely that the awfulness of the 2019-24 Parliament will allow many left of centre voters to overlook the Coalition in favour of voting tactically to punish the Tories.
It's an amazing opportunity for the Lib Dems.
The opportunity for the LibDems is that the Tory vote is collapsing, and collapsing most in the sort of comfortable Home Counties seats where the LibDems tend to come a comfortable, if distant, second. The downside for them is that while their campaign has got noticed - kudos to brave Ed putting his credibility on the line - it has not broken through to capture the imagination. Winning seats purely because your opponent is less popular than you is always a risky business.
Just go ask that Mr Starmer.
Actually relative to 2019 the Tory vote is collapsing most in the redwall, Essex and East Kent ie areas Boris won by a landslide, with Reform making big inroads as are Labour.
Sunak actually polls relatively better than Boris did in the posher bits of the Home Counties and West London so a smaller swing away from the Tories may be seen there which could see some Tories scrape home against a divided LD and Labour opposition
More than four in ten Democrats, 41%, said the Democratic Party should replace Biden as its presidential nominee. That included 37% of those who say they plan to vote for him.
Of course. If I were a US voter, I'd probably say the same if asked.
It's the 4% difference between the responses to the two questions that should worry the current Biden loyalists. That could mean the election in November.
But the fact that it's only 42% illustrates the problem. Unless Biden chooses/can be persuaded to go (or actually collapses), he's probably the candidate in November.
My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.
They don't register very much anywhere else.
Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
I'm confused. How can the presence of a bakery chain in an area indicate its poshness?
I would have thought that a posh area would have a bakery run either by the same family for eight generations, or some young baking wunderkind who'd studied patisserie at the top French school.
Gail's ffs. There are more than a hundred of them now.
Yes with far more expensive prices than some family run bakery in Stoke would have
Why? Just relax a bit. Election results (you know, actual votes) will be trickling in by just past 11 pm Thursday night. The outcome is not in doubt. Starmer will be kissing the ring on Friday.
I’m hugely relaxed. After a busy week I’m back in Surrey sitting with dogs watching Wimbledon.
I just need an opinion poll. Or several.
Why?
Duh. Because I enjoy politics and political betting. And I love General Elections. This one in particular. It has been the most enjoyable campaign of my life.
Elections are exciting when its a close result. This is just plain boring, the only thing of interest is what happens the Conservatives when they lose.
Elections are exciting when one's own side is looking like winning, or the side one doesn't like is looking like losing. I can see that for Conservative (or SNP) supporters this election would be boring, or at best morbidly fascinating. But for Labour supporters, Reform supporters and - with the usual caveats - Lib Dem supporters this is an exciting election.
IMHO it's exciting in at least two ways, objectively.
Fallout in short, medium and long term is unpredictable and likely to be far reaching. This will have UK wide consequence. This links with a critical national question: can Labour turn the national mood and fortunes around? No-one can call this dull.
And the relation of voting to demography, geography, pre-existing patterns and the actual result in seats for whom and where remains peculiarly unclear.
A lot of experts are going to be wrong.
Pre-existing patterns is the big one. Are people that live in rural areas and have voted conservative for example for the last 40 years going to all vote Lib Dem and reform? What percentage of them will vote Labour?
So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.
As happened here a couple of years back
"How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."
I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.
And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
Which resources in particular are you worried about?
Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
The UK is a morbidly obese nation, we can afford to eat less.
My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.
They don't register very much anywhere else.
Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
I'm confused. How can the presence of a bakery chain in an area indicate its poshness?
I would have thought that a posh area would have a bakery run either by the same family for eight generations, or some young baking wunderkind who'd studied patisserie at the top French school.
Gail's ffs. There are more than a hundred of them now.
And yet it definitely is a thing re Waitrose. Waitrose will build stores with the 'right kind of clientele' - i.e. those that can afford to splash the cash in the supermarket with cornershop prices. Take my area - Westbury, Trowbridge, Frome - no Waitrose. Warminster - Waitrose, and undeniably a more up market town than the others (although Frome is rather bohemian).
My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.
They don't register very much anywhere else.
Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
I'm confused. How can the presence of a bakery chain in an area indicate its poshness?
I would have thought that a posh area would have a bakery run either by the same family for eight generations, or some young baking wunderkind who'd studied patisserie at the top French school.
Gail's ffs. There are more than a hundred of them now.
Never heard of them. I have found out why. The nearest is about 120 miles away.
So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.
As happened here a couple of years back
"How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."
I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.
And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
Interesting. 33yrs old you say? Sounds more like the set of beliefs that are prevalent at Uni.
Don't forget that 148gers is a lecturer at a uni, and probably still young enough to believe that the cool undergrads they teach are their friends, and hanging out with them in the Uni bar is in no way a bir creepy...
Also. I am not not in denial about how well labour will do in the election. I cannot see them getting over 410 seats. I could be wrong. I cannot see it.
I think you need to face up to the fact that you are 'not not in denial'.
The interesting takeaway from various vox-pops is that people's antagonism towards Johnson is he made promises he had no intention of meeting. Rather than because of Party gate.
My contempt for Johnson is that in some things he was pointing in the right direction, but failed to engage slightly and deliver when he could have done so. And that for me is the problem of the current generation of Tory leaders, plus cynical populism and the things that go with that.
Johnson could have delivered, had he been willing to have a competent chief of staff who could have done everything except the stunts.
Boris needed a Willie. He thought a willy would do, but it was busily engaged elsewhere.
Boris was short term gain, long term pain. As the likes of HY were told, very clearly, well in advance.
That the Tories went for him encapsulates the wider problem with our politics, which offers no incentive to do the right things for the long term when set against a short-term imperative.
The one good thing about Labour crushing the Tories, as we hope for, is that they might realise that they have ten years plus in power in front of them, and can afford to do some of the longer term stuff that is the right thing, but for which they won’t get thanked any time soon. Blair had the same chance, but blew it not least because the people around him were forever focused on tomorrow’s headlines rather than the next generation’s legacy (yes, Campbell, that’s you).
Priti Patel (Witham, majority 25,669, 353rd safest Tory seat), has started running Facebook ads in the last couple of days. Very unlikely the seat will change hands.
19th safest Tory seat.
If you were running those ads your biggest problem would be having to mention the name 'Priti Patel'. I don't know the constituency but that name alone would surely be a call to action for every potential voter to hunt for her nearest challenger
I posted earlier today that Electoral Calculus shows her margin over Labour decreasing. Now she's only 0.4% ahead, and those Facebook posts attract quite a few Reform 'critics'!
Witham was Labour in 1997 when half of the seat was in Braintree including Witham town. EC now has it closer than Braintree but all the Tory activists sent to the area have mainly been helping Cleverly rather than Patel
The old Braintree constituency, which included Witham town and the area between it and Braintree, was Labour when we moved here. It was a major surprise when Tony Newton, who'd sat in Conservative cabinets, was defeated. However the Labour chap who won the seat, and held it in 2005, Alan Hurst, was a really good, helpful MP. He eventually lost to Brooks Newmark, who wasn't.
I campaigned for Brooks in 2001 when yes he narrowly lost to Hurst by a few hundred votes
My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.
They don't register very much anywhere else.
Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
I'm confused. How can the presence of a bakery chain in an area indicate its poshness?
I would have thought that a posh area would have a bakery run either by the same family for eight generations, or some young baking wunderkind who'd studied patisserie at the top French school.
Gail's ffs. There are more than a hundred of them now.
And yet it definitely is a thing re Waitrose. Waitrose will build stores with the 'right kind of clientele' - i.e. those that can afford to splash the cash in the supermarket with cornershop prices. Take my area - Westbury, Trowbridge, Frome - no Waitrose. Warminster - Waitrose, and undeniably a more up market town than the others (although Frome is rather bohemian).
Waitrose is a definite. Tory normally and some of the waitrose clientele may switch to Lib Dem. Some of the things they sell are lovely. A lot of overpriced items. M and S is better!
So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.
As happened here a couple of years back
"How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."
I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.
And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
Which resources in particular are you worried about?
Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
No it won't. Food production is going to continue going from strength to strength.
Any diminution of food production will be when dimwitted governments decide to implement policies such as the Environmental Stewardship Scheme which takes arable or land out of production. But there is always Tescos other countries.
The interesting takeaway from various vox-pops is that people's antagonism towards Johnson is he made promises he had no intention of meeting. Rather than because of Party gate.
My contempt for Johnson is that in some things he was pointing in the right direction, but failed to engage slightly and deliver when he could have done so. And that for me is the problem of the current generation of Tory leaders, plus cynical populism and the things that go with that.
Johnson could have delivered, had he been willing to have a competent chief of staff who could have done everything except the stunts.
Boris needed a Willie. He thought a willy would do, but it was busily engaged elsewhere.
Boris was short term gain, long term pain. As the likes of HY were told, very clearly, well in advance.
That the Tories went for him encapsulates the wider problem with our politics, which offers no incentive to do the right things for the long term when set against a short-term imperative.
The one good thing about Labour crushing the Tories, as we hope for, is that they realise they have ten years plus in power, and can afford to do some of the longer term stuff that is the right thing, but for which they won’t get thanked any time soon.
Without Boris we would probably now have PM Corbyn leading a minority Labour government or at best PM Hunt leading a minority Tory government with Brexit still not having got done and Corbyn looking set to win in the polls next time
My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.
They don't register very much anywhere else.
Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
I'm confused. How can the presence of a bakery chain in an area indicate its poshness?
I would have thought that a posh area would have a bakery run either by the same family for eight generations, or some young baking wunderkind who'd studied patisserie at the top French school.
Gail's ffs. There are more than a hundred of them now.
And yet it definitely is a thing re Waitrose. Waitrose will build stores with the 'right kind of clientele' - i.e. those that can afford to splash the cash in the supermarket with cornershop prices. Take my area - Westbury, Trowbridge, Frome - no Waitrose. Warminster - Waitrose, and undeniably a more up market town than the others (although Frome is rather bohemian).
Conversely they bought a lot of Somerfields premises when the co-op bought Som and the MMC said they had to get rid of some so the Southwest is full of Waitrose in really eeeuw locations. Disaster because they can't sell the proper upmarket stuff, and the essentials items still cost more than Lidl, so neither the rich nor the poor shop there
My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.
They don't register very much anywhere else.
Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
What is a Gail's?
A posh bakery, mainly found in London and the Home Counties plus West Bristol and the posher bits of Cheshire like Knutsford. If you don't have one your area probably isn't expensive enough https://gails.com/pages/find-us
None in Yorkshire - nearest are in Manchester. Explains why I've never heard of them.
Also. I am not not in denial about how well labour will do in the election. I cannot see them getting over 410 seats. I could be wrong. I cannot see it.
I think you need to face up to the fact that you are 'not not in denial'.
My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.
They don't register very much anywhere else.
Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
I'm confused. How can the presence of a bakery chain in an area indicate its poshness?
I would have thought that a posh area would have a bakery run either by the same family for eight generations, or some young baking wunderkind who'd studied patisserie at the top French school.
Gail's ffs. There are more than a hundred of them now.
Yes with far more expensive prices than some family run bakery in Stoke would have
So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.
As happened here a couple of years back
"How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."
I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.
And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
Which resources in particular are you worried about?
Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
No it won't. Food production is going to continue going from strength to strength.
Any diminution of food production will be when dimwitted governments decide to implement policies such as the Environmental Stewardship Scheme which takes arable or land out of production. But there is always Tescos other countries.
Any evidence to back up your unsubstantiated claim?
Priti Patel (Witham, majority 25,669, 353rd safest Tory seat), has started running Facebook ads in the last couple of days. Very unlikely the seat will change hands.
19th safest Tory seat.
If you were running those ads your biggest problem would be having to mention the name 'Priti Patel'. I don't know the constituency but that name alone would surely be a call to action for every potential voter to hunt for her nearest challenger
I posted earlier today that Electoral Calculus shows her margin over Labour decreasing. Now she's only 0.4% ahead, and those Facebook posts attract quite a few Reform 'critics'!
Witham was Labour in 1997 when half of the seat was in Braintree including Witham town. EC now has it closer than Braintree but all the Tory activists sent to the area have mainly been helping Cleverly rather than Patel
The old Braintree constituency, which included Witham town and the area between it and Braintree, was Labour when we moved here. It was a major surprise when Tony Newton, who'd sat in Conservative cabinets, was defeated. However the Labour chap who won the seat, and held it in 2005, Alan Hurst, was a really good, helpful MP. He eventually lost to Brooks Newmark, who wasn't.
I campaigned for Brooks in 2001 when yes he narrowly lost to Hurst by a few hundred votes
You might have canvassed me, i lived in Witham in 2001
My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.
They don't register very much anywhere else.
Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
What is a Gail's?
A posh bakery, mainly found in London and the Home Counties plus West Bristol and the posher bits of Cheshire like Knutsford. If you don't have one your area probably isn't expensive enough https://gails.com/pages/find-us
None in Yorkshire - nearest are in Manchester. Explains why I've never heard of them.
Betty's in Yorshire. Different business. Dale's pubs are the place to go for good food!
So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.
As happened here a couple of years back
"How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."
I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.
And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
Which resources in particular are you worried about?
Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
Do you think that you personally are at risk of starving to death in a famine?
Why? Just relax a bit. Election results (you know, actual votes) will be trickling in by just past 11 pm Thursday night. The outcome is not in doubt. Starmer will be kissing the ring on Friday.
I’m hugely relaxed. After a busy week I’m back in Surrey sitting with dogs watching Wimbledon.
I just need an opinion poll. Or several.
Why?
Duh. Because I enjoy politics and political betting. And I love General Elections. This one in particular. It has been the most enjoyable campaign of my life.
Elections are exciting when its a close result. This is just plain boring, the only thing of interest is what happens the Conservatives when they lose.
Elections are exciting when one's own side is looking like winning, or the side one doesn't like is looking like losing. I can see that for Conservative (or SNP) supporters this election would be boring, or at best morbidly fascinating. But for Labour supporters, Reform supporters and - with the usual caveats - Lib Dem supporters this is an exciting election.
My problem - and I do realise this is a genuine character flaw - is that, in spite of the fact that I am pretty sure the next Parliament is going to be very bad for me financially and possess a lot of risks to my livelihood and ability to support my family - in spite of all of that - there is still within me that anarchist disruptor that Heathener was ascribing to Leon.
I have often said I am only a Libertarian because I am too frightened to be an anarchist. I view the old Chinese proverb about 'Living in Interesting times' as a blessing rather than the curse it is intended to be. And this is self destructive and stupid but I do recognise it in myself and it is something I can't completely supress.
So a big bit of me wants to see the Tories get absolutely slaughtered even though it means a Labour Government that will be bad for me and my family.
A bit of me wants to see Reform gain seats just for the laugh and the horror even though I would not myself vote for them in a million years.
I am enjoying all the angst of the French election results because it maks life more interesting even though it could be bad for France and the rest of Europe including the UK.
But all this is the detached observer and I would never actively want to help any of this happen (well except perhaps the destruction of the Tory party but that is for other reasons).
This is why I am so looking forward to Thursday night and hoping it won't all be a boring damp squip.
Something of an indictment of YouGov and which renders their poll something of a waste of space is the fact that the total of their percentages for the parties, incl others, fails to total 100% ... oh dearie me, that's pretty basic stuff!
The interesting takeaway from various vox-pops is that people's antagonism towards Johnson is he made promises he had no intention of meeting. Rather than because of Party gate.
My contempt for Johnson is that in some things he was pointing in the right direction, but failed to engage slightly and deliver when he could have done so. And that for me is the problem of the current generation of Tory leaders, plus cynical populism and the things that go with that.
Johnson could have delivered, had he been willing to have a competent chief of staff who could have done everything except the stunts.
Boris needed a Willie. He thought a willy would do, but it was busily engaged elsewhere.
Boris was short term gain, long term pain. As the likes of HY were told, very clearly, well in advance.
That the Tories went for him encapsulates the wider problem with our politics, which offers no incentive to do the right things for the long term when set against a short-term imperative.
The one good thing about Labour crushing the Tories, as we hope for, is that they realise they have ten years plus in power, and can afford to do some of the longer term stuff that is the right thing, but for which they won’t get thanked any time soon.
Without Boris we would probably now have PM Corbyn leading a minority Labour government or at best PM Hunt leading a minority Tory government with Brexit still not having got done and Corbyn looking set to win in the polls next time
Your problem is that too many people will be thinking, ‘how would that be any worse?’
So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.
As happened here a couple of years back
"How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."
I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.
And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
Which resources in particular are you worried about?
Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
No it won't. Food production is going to continue going from strength to strength.
Any diminution of food production will be when dimwitted governments decide to implement policies such as the Environmental Stewardship Scheme which takes arable or land out of production. But there is always Tescos other countries.
You can't be certain about any of this. Even a relatively small and brief crisis could have global repercussions. If Vietnam's rice bowl continues to have droughts and salinisation issues...
The big unknown is new diseases turning up. Bird flu is still bubbling away, under the radar.
So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.
As happened here a couple of years back
"How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."
I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.
And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
Which resources in particular are you worried about?
Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
Do you think that you personally are at risk of starving to death in a famine?
Not really. The supermarkets will save the day and make a lot of profit as they in during covid crisis and then again when inflation was high. They came to our rescue.
More than four in ten Democrats, 41%, said the Democratic Party should replace Biden as its presidential nominee. That included 37% of those who say they plan to vote for him.
Jill Biden will read that the other way around, and say that nearly 60% of the party want him to stay as the runner.
They are going to leave it as late as a Southgate substitution....
Can't help feeling that the last big twist in this election campaign is when we, as a nation, have to ask ourselves whether we were to blame. Why did we keep cheering him on? Why did we keep demanding more? Wasn't the bungee jump enough?
Why? Just relax a bit. Election results (you know, actual votes) will be trickling in by just past 11 pm Thursday night. The outcome is not in doubt. Starmer will be kissing the ring on Friday.
I’m hugely relaxed. After a busy week I’m back in Surrey sitting with dogs watching Wimbledon.
I just need an opinion poll. Or several.
Why?
Duh. Because I enjoy politics and political betting. And I love General Elections. This one in particular. It has been the most enjoyable campaign of my life.
Elections are exciting when its a close result. This is just plain boring, the only thing of interest is what happens the Conservatives when they lose.
Elections are exciting when one's own side is looking like winning, or the side one doesn't like is looking like losing. I can see that for Conservative (or SNP) supporters this election would be boring, or at best morbidly fascinating. But for Labour supporters, Reform supporters and - with the usual caveats - Lib Dem supporters this is an exciting election.
My problem - and I do realise this is a genuine character flaw - is that, in spite of the fact that I am pretty sure the next Parliament is going to be very bad for me financially and possess a lot of risks to my livelihood and ability to support my family - in spite of all of that - there is still within me that anarchist disruptor that Heathener was ascribing to Leon.
I have often said I am only a Libertarian because I am too frightened to be an anarchist. I view the old Chinese proverb about 'Living in Interesting times' as a blessing rather than the curse it is intended to be. And this is self destructive and stupid but I do recognise it in myself and it is something I can't completely supress.
So a big bit of me wants to see the Tories get absolutely slaughtered even though it means a Labour Government that will be bad for me and my family.
A bit of me wants to see Reform gain seats just for the laugh and the horror even though I would not myself vote for them in a million years.
I am enjoying all the angst of the French election results because it maks life more interesting even though it could be bad for France and the rest of Europe including the UK.
But all this is the detached observer and I would never actively want to help any of this happen (well except perhaps the destruction of the Tory party but that is for other reasons).
This is why I am so looking forward to Thursday night and hoping it won't all be a boring damp squip.
When did Leon hack your account? Except for the LACK of random words in capitals, I’d almost believe it.
So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.
As happened here a couple of years back
"How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."
I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.
And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
Which resources in particular are you worried about?
Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
No it won't. Food production is going to continue going from strength to strength.
Any diminution of food production will be when dimwitted governments decide to implement policies such as the Environmental Stewardship Scheme which takes arable or land out of production. But there is always Tescos other countries.
Any evidence to back up your unsubstantiated claim?
Yes. Look around you and at the history of food production.
I’ve read so much about the election but so little is talked about the elephant in the room
Rishi Sunak is not white
Some voters will not vote or be v reluctant to vote for a minority PM even if most won’t admit it
It is reflected in the CON polling and the final election result though
It’s taboo to even mention it because it’s not PC to mention race and people in their bubbles like to deny racism exists
Just so we can cut to the chase, what are your view on Gay Rights? And on Ukraine?
Gay rights are an important civil liberty as people should be able to do they want but some people are obsessed with an issue that doesn’t matter to most people
You do bring up a relevent point. I don’t think the UK would vote for a gay man as a leader either . They wouldn’t publicly admit that though !
From what I saw Ukraine weren’t very good in the euros but thats to be expected given the invasion
I genuinely think you are wrong - and pretty much for the reason you state in your first paragraph. The issue doesn't matter to most people. They would simply not think it mattered whether their potential PM was gay or not. At most after the event there might be a bit of self satisfaction from many that the UK was tolerent enough to have voted for a gay leader in spite of the impression some people try to portray that we are intolerent.
I would not vote for Sunak now because he is incompetent and lightweight - but I also did not vote for Johnson for the same reason. I would not vote for Patel or Braverman because they are jackbooted authoritarians - but I also did not vote for May for the same reason.
Some things matter. Others really don't.
I'm not sure that this is the case, much as we all on here might like to think it is. Plenty of people out there and if we look at the 17-20% who say they might vote for Reform I can't believe that some would hold such views.
Oh I am sure there is a small element obviously. We know the racists and homophobes exist. But, for example and not wanting to be nice about Reform, whilst there will be racists and homophobes amongst them, that won't account for most of their support. As such the number of votes that could be mustsred to oppose, for example, a gay PM, would be very small and unlikely to influence the outcome.
So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.
As happened here a couple of years back
"How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."
I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.
And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
Interesting. 33yrs old you say? Sounds more like the set of beliefs that are prevalent at Uni.
Don't forget that 148gers is a lecturer at a uni, and probably still young enough to believe that the cool undergrads they teach are their friends, and hanging out with them in the Uni bar is in no way a bir creepy...
What's a cool undergrad?
Really? You can't be that old that you don't recall the cool undergrad students? The ones that were mature enough to talk to the lecturers as if they were real people, but also able to go out partying, and to keep on top of their studies. Potentially the ones who might stay on to do a higher degree, or if not might actually make something of themselves. They definitely exist. I meet all types of student. You can normally work out their expected trajectory inside one to two tutorials in the first semester.
Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity should be out around 10am Eastern time.
Took the absolute maximum time.
I'm assuming they will say there is some immunity, though not the total immunity he claims, and they won't apply that to the case, they'll leave the district judge to redo it, which can then itself be appealed. Takes up even more time.
So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.
As happened here a couple of years back
"How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."
I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.
And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
Which resources in particular are you worried about?
Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
No it won't. Food production is going to continue going from strength to strength.
Any diminution of food production will be when dimwitted governments decide to implement policies such as the Environmental Stewardship Scheme which takes arable or land out of production. But there is always Tescos other countries.
You can't be certain about any of this. Even a relatively small and brief crisis could have global repercussions. If Vietnam's rice bowl continues to have droughts and salination issues...
The big unknown is new diseases turning up. Bird flu is still bubbling away, under the radar.
Yep true and if a meteor hits us we will all be wiped out but in the absence of many of your "ifs" then all will be well and in any case 148 was talking about BAU leading to this catastrophe, not some attack of highly trained killer bees.
So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.
As happened here a couple of years back
"How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."
I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.
And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
Which resources in particular are you worried about?
Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
Do you think that you personally are at risk of starving to death in a famine?
No - but I live in the imperial core. What I do think is that there will be a lot more use of state violence, at home and abroad, to ensure that the "right" people still have access to things like food and water, and that those things will be much more expensive / valued more highly than they are now. It's possible that somewhere like the UK, where our ability to continue the average lifestyle based on locally grown products is very difficult, will have more instability than elsewhere - but it's hard to know exactly.
Comments
And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-opinion-biden-accomplishment-data/
That isn't the case now, which has consequences.
Posters is what LibDems do.Try and suggest there is a huge groundswell. But as I reminded someone the other day when we were going round a new development with four LibDem signs, "Aye, but the other 63 haven't publically proclaimed who they are voting for..."
But the idea that he can cope with another four years is pretty well exploded.
(Though a large minority of the party itself think he should still run.)
It remains the case that unless he decides to step down, there's no simple way for the Democrats to dislodge him.
The current mid-spread seat prices, with the sell - buy range shown in brackets, are currently as follows:
Labour 424 (420 - 428)
Conservative 117 (114 - 120)
LibDems 56.5 (55 - 58)
If something like that does happen then the Lib Dems should do very well, and it also looks likely that the awfulness of the 2019-24 Parliament will allow many left of centre voters to overlook the Coalition in favour of voting tactically to punish the Tories.
It's an amazing opportunity for the Lib Dems.
Susan Page
@SusanPage
Joe Biden's core Democratic support takes big hit after debate, exclusive poll shows
https://usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/01/biden-democratic-support-shaken-debate-poll/74263208007/ via
@usatoday
https://x.com/SusanPage/status/1807769431663169817
I'm beginning to Simon Hoare could be in trouble in my North Dorset constituency, a top 10 Tory safe seat.
Why?
1. In the locals the wards which make up this seat voted 47.9% Con, 37.8% LD, others 14.3% on a turnout of 33.25%. There were no Reform candidates and just 3 UKIP candidates across the 19 seats.
2. Since the locals nationally there has been a swing of 4% Con to LD (basically the Tories dropping from 28% to 20%).
3. North Dorset has Reform, UKIP and SDP standing alongside C, L, LD and Green.
4. Labour are doing nothing in the constituency, they have an outside candidate, no leaflets yet, no signs, nothing.
5. Orange diamonds are sprouting up everywhere; I've still yet to see any signs for any other party. Yes anecdotal, I know but it's never been like this before.
6. The LD candidate is a well-known local man.
7. Simon Hoare is a decent one-nation Tory but hardly a mover or a shaker, and his one-nation-ness will count against him with some on the right.
DYOR obviously but it could be close.
Stand back, take the long view, and the progress our country has made has generally been when they’ve been out of power. Once in a while, they’ve promoted said progress in order to stay in power. But under the Tories no progress is going to be made that isn’t forced upon them either in parliament or by public opinion. The clue is in their name.
Where they’ve wrecked their brand, is in getting captured by an ideology more intent on wrecking stuff they don’t like than conserving stuff that they do. Indeed, they’ve even turned on some of the stuff that previously they’ve liked. A Conservative Party that goes around destroying stuff has Ratnered its own brand.
Johnson could have delivered, had he been willing to have a competent chief of staff who could have done everything except the stunts.
Boris needed a Willie. He thought a willy would do, but it was busily engaged elsewhere.
The voters of small c conservatives may well annihilate the Tories on Thursday.
https://gails.com/pages/find-us
The Conservatives have abandoned that centre of gravity by chasing Reform voters and ended up in the wilderness. The strategy might have worked a little better if they'd stuck in the mid ground.
After the predicted midterm disaster didn't materialise, it was fairly inevitable that he would go only on his own terms.
Anyone saying "the Democrats should have replaced him" just doesn't understand how US presidential politics works.
And I don't think a left v right fight really came into it. All of the realistic contenders weren't from the left.
However the Labour chap who won the seat, and held it in 2005, Alan Hurst, was a really good, helpful MP. He eventually lost to Brooks Newmark, who wasn't.
I would not vote for Sunak now because he is incompetent and lightweight - but I also did not vote for Johnson for the same reason. I would not vote for Patel or Braverman because they are jackbooted authoritarians - but I also did not vote for May for the same reason.
Some things matter. Others really don't.
I would be very happy to see the extermination of the Tories. I cannot see how that would be 'unpatriotic', and certainly not a cause for shame.
It only works if you have kept your core voters on board and they havent.
I would have thought that a posh area would have a bakery run either by the same family for eight generations, or some young baking wunderkind who'd studied patisserie at the top French school.
Gail's ffs. There are more than a hundred of them now.
Just go ask that Mr Starmer.
Fallout in short, medium and long term is unpredictable and likely to be far reaching. This will have UK wide consequence. This links with a critical national question: can Labour turn the national mood and fortunes around? No-one can call this dull.
And the relation of voting to demography, geography, pre-existing patterns and the actual result in seats for whom and where remains peculiarly unclear.
A lot of experts are going to be wrong.
Sunak actually polls relatively better than Boris did in the posher bits of the Home Counties and West London so a smaller swing away from the Tories may be seen there which could see some Tories scrape home against a divided LD and Labour opposition
If I were a US voter, I'd probably say the same if asked.
It's the 4% difference between the responses to the two questions that should worry the current Biden loyalists.
That could mean the election in November.
But the fact that it's only 42% illustrates the problem. Unless Biden chooses/can be persuaded to go (or actually collapses), he's probably the candidate in November.
It sounds dreadful.
"In 2019, Alison made history as the first non-Conservative district councillor for Hurstpierpoint in living memory."
https://www.midsussexlibdems.org.uk/alison-bennett
That the Tories went for him encapsulates the wider problem with our politics, which offers no incentive to do the right things for the long term when set against a short-term imperative.
The one good thing about Labour crushing the Tories, as we hope for, is that they might realise that they have ten years plus in power in front of them, and can afford to do some of the longer term stuff that is the right thing, but for which they won’t get thanked any time soon. Blair had the same chance, but blew it not least because the people around him were forever focused on tomorrow’s headlines rather than the next generation’s legacy (yes, Campbell, that’s you).
Any diminution of food production will be when dimwitted governments decide to implement policies such as the Environmental Stewardship Scheme which takes arable or land out of production. But there is always
Tescosother countries.https://www.gaylesbakery.com/
If anyone's ever passing, their Key Lime Pie is superb.
I have often said I am only a Libertarian because I am too frightened to be an anarchist. I view the old Chinese proverb about 'Living in Interesting times' as a blessing rather than the curse it is intended to be. And this is self destructive and stupid but I do recognise it in myself and it is something I can't completely supress.
So a big bit of me wants to see the Tories get absolutely slaughtered even though it means a Labour Government that will be bad for me and my family.
A bit of me wants to see Reform gain seats just for the laugh and the horror even though I would not myself vote for them in a million years.
I am enjoying all the angst of the French election results because it maks life more interesting even though it could be bad for France and the rest of Europe including the UK.
But all this is the detached observer and I would never actively want to help any of this happen (well except perhaps the destruction of the Tory party but that is for other reasons).
This is why I am so looking forward to Thursday night and hoping it won't all be a boring damp squip.
https://x.com/skynewsniall/status/1807749638390231226
The big unknown is new diseases turning up. Bird flu is still bubbling away, under the radar.
And utterly wonderful.
King Edward and Princess Elizabeth are black, but that sort-of becomes inconsequential when it is revealed that Lady Jane Grey marries a horse.
Can't help feeling that the last big twist in this election campaign is when we, as a nation, have to ask ourselves whether we were to blame. Why did we keep cheering him on? Why did we keep demanding more? Wasn't the bungee jump enough?
@SmartCircleComm
'The public inquiry was told that all safety checks were carried out on the cannon and safety net.'
I'm assuming they will say there is some immunity, though not the total immunity he claims, and they won't apply that to the case, they'll leave the district judge to redo it, which can then itself be appealed. Takes up even more time.