Why being English is a bad sign – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Farage is getting more like Trump by the hour.eristdoof said:
Farage wants the BBC to ask him the questions he wants to answer....that's not how politics in a free democracy works.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Nigel Farage: "IT IS A DISGRACE THAT REFORM ARE NOT GIVEN COVERAGE BY THE BBC"
BBC: asks Nigel Farage questions
Nigel Farage: "NO, NOT LIKE THAT!"
The thin-skinned tw@.0 -
Bloody Beaker People.kle4 said:
Britain for the Beaker People!Foxy said:
Who got to Britain via a small boat with no papers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
If we go back far enough, you and I share a common ancestor from east Africa, say Somalia/Ethiopia way.Leon said:I am a white Anglo-Celtic European Briton, descended from William the Conqueror and Maud Ingelric, the Saxon Princess, and also the grandson of Annie Maud Jory, last of the Cornish bal maidens, a child slave sent to the tin mines of st Agnes to break rocks, up at grass
Coming over here with their advanced ceramic technology.
What was wrong with cupping your hands to drink?1 -
Not at that point, to be sure, but given how much preparing their legacy was important to many rulers, it would probably have weighed on him toward the end, if he was capable of such self reflection.Leon said:P
I doubt he particularly cared at that pointFarooq said:
In every sense.Theuniondivvie said:
A right bastard.Farooq said:William the Conqueror was a fat sadist who was hated by everyone
When the fucker died, nobody could be bothered to deal with the body. They took his stuff, including his clothes, and his naked body was left to start to rot until some random came and cleaned up the mess. When he was interred, he was so bloated by decay that he burst.
I remember a comedy piece once which was looking at some commentary about personal notes of Stalin and how it revealed he was a distrustful and lonely man, and their response was "Well, that's what happens when you kill everyone you know, dude!"1 -
You have to say WHITE like Humza Yousaf. Works betterIanB2 said:
No, your main identity is TWAT. Being white is a secondary characteristic.Leon said:
My main identity is WHITETheScreamingEagles said:
So you’re really French.Leon said:I am a white Anglo-Celtic European Briton, descended from William the Conqueror and Maud Ingelric, the Saxon Princess, and also the grandson of Annie Maud Jory, last of the Cornish bal maidens, a child slave sent to the tin mines of st Agnes to break rocks, up at grass
It explains a lot.1 -
I believe it was less how and more *what* they had to drink, i.e. beer. But IANAE.dixiedean said:
Bloody Beaker People.kle4 said:
Britain for the Beaker People!Foxy said:
Who got to Britain via a small boat with no papers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
If we go back far enough, you and I share a common ancestor from east Africa, say Somalia/Ethiopia way.Leon said:I am a white Anglo-Celtic European Briton, descended from William the Conqueror and Maud Ingelric, the Saxon Princess, and also the grandson of Annie Maud Jory, last of the Cornish bal maidens, a child slave sent to the tin mines of st Agnes to break rocks, up at grass
Coming over here with their advanced ceramic technology.
What was wrong with cupping your hands to drink?0 -
JK Rowling says David Tennant is part of ‘gender Taliban’ after trans rights support
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/jk-rowling-david-tennant-trans-kemi-badenoch-b2570909.html
Another grown-up response from JK Rowling.0 -
Jutes will not replace us.kle4 said:
Britain for the Beaker People!Foxy said:
Who got to Britain via a small boat with no papers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
If we go back far enough, you and I share a common ancestor from east Africa, say Somalia/Ethiopia way.Leon said:I am a white Anglo-Celtic European Briton, descended from William the Conqueror and Maud Ingelric, the Saxon Princess, and also the grandson of Annie Maud Jory, last of the Cornish bal maidens, a child slave sent to the tin mines of st Agnes to break rocks, up at grass
Edit apologies to Selebian who came up with that line.2 -
She is starting to lose me a little. She's done well to reveal that a lot of people going after her have been wildly disproportionate, she doesn't want to fall into the same trap.BatteryCorrectHorse said:JK Rowling says David Tennant is part of ‘gender Taliban’ after trans rights support
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/jk-rowling-david-tennant-trans-kemi-badenoch-b2570909.html
Another grown-up response from JK Rowling.1 -
England to name Jamie Smith as wicketkeeper for West Indies Test series
Exclusive: Surrey man to get nod ahead of county team-mate Ben Foakes thanks to superiority with bat, both in red and white-ball formats
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/06/29/england-jamie-smith-wicketkeeper-west-indies-series/0 -
Especially considering that - whatever Kemi Badenoch tried to twist it into in her self-serving way - Tennant's essential message was "Live and let live".kle4 said:
She is starting to lose me a little. She's done well to reveal that a lot of people going after her have been wildly disproportionate, she doesn't want to fall into the same trap.BatteryCorrectHorse said:JK Rowling says David Tennant is part of ‘gender Taliban’ after trans rights support
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/jk-rowling-david-tennant-trans-kemi-badenoch-b2570909.html
Another grown-up response from JK Rowling.0 -
I know it's not red ball related but is Jos going to quit soon?TheScreamingEagles said:England to name Jamie Smith as wicketkeeper for West Indies Test series
Exclusive: Surrey man to get nod ahead of county team-mate Ben Foakes thanks to superiority with bat, both in red and white-ball formats
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/06/29/england-jamie-smith-wicketkeeper-west-indies-series/0 -
I've never understood why we cannot find enough excellent batsmen to enable selecting the best wicketkeeper, so long as that person is not completely terrible with the bat.TheScreamingEagles said:England to name Jamie Smith as wicketkeeper for West Indies Test series
Exclusive: Surrey man to get nod ahead of county team-mate Ben Foakes thanks to superiority with bat, both in red and white-ball formats
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/06/29/england-jamie-smith-wicketkeeper-west-indies-series/1 -
There are consoling hints that Stalin was somewhat remorseful and agonised. In one of Sebag Montefiore’s brilliant blogs of him there is a scene where Stalin meets some old friends that he put through the Terror, nearly having them shot, putting them in the gulags etckle4 said:
Not at that point, to be sure, but given how much preparing their legacy was important to many rulers, it would probably have weighed on him toward the end, if he was capable of such self reflection.Leon said:P
I doubt he particularly cared at that pointFarooq said:
In every sense.Theuniondivvie said:
A right bastard.Farooq said:William the Conqueror was a fat sadist who was hated by everyone
When the fucker died, nobody could be bothered to deal with the body. They took his stuff, including his clothes, and his naked body was left to start to rot until some random came and cleaned up the mess. When he was interred, he was so bloated by decay that he burst.
I remember a comedy piece once which was looking at some commentary about personal notes of Stalin and how it revealed he was a distrustful and lonely man, and their response was "Well, that's what happens when you kill everyone you know, dude!"
Apparently he looked at these broken people and said, with a rueful chuckle, “I’m sorry I had you tortured so much, we probably went too far”0 -
Its just an equation to balance.kle4 said:
I've never understood why we cannot find enough excellent batsmen to enable selecting the best wicketkeeper, so long that person is not completely terrible with the bat.TheScreamingEagles said:England to name Jamie Smith as wicketkeeper for West Indies Test series
Exclusive: Surrey man to get nod ahead of county team-mate Ben Foakes thanks to superiority with bat, both in red and white-ball formats
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/06/29/england-jamie-smith-wicketkeeper-west-indies-series/
If a keeper is 5 runs an innings better as keeper than his rival, he can be about 5 runs worse than that rival with the bat, but if he is 10 runs worse you'd pick the worse keeper.
Judging those numbers, and how much they change in different conditions, isn't easy but the logic is straightforward.0 -
That's about where my dial is set, Kle, but it's very sensitive. The slightest nudge would alter it significantly.kle4 said:
I'm presently thinking between 85-115.Farooq said:
They'll easily win more than 100. Back them.paulyork64 said:If I've counted right Conservatives are favourites in 96 seats, some at odds against. This is somewhat higher than most predictions I've seen to have them winning, with them in danger of slipping behind the LDs.
Not sure if there is a contradiction here or which if either is more likely to be wrong. is there value in opposing Cons in some of those seats? or is winning 96 more trustworthy?0 -
Maybe the Beaker People were just mugs?dixiedean said:
Bloody Beaker People.kle4 said:
Britain for the Beaker People!Foxy said:
Who got to Britain via a small boat with no papers.Sunil_Prasannan said:
If we go back far enough, you and I share a common ancestor from east Africa, say Somalia/Ethiopia way.Leon said:I am a white Anglo-Celtic European Briton, descended from William the Conqueror and Maud Ingelric, the Saxon Princess, and also the grandson of Annie Maud Jory, last of the Cornish bal maidens, a child slave sent to the tin mines of st Agnes to break rocks, up at grass
Coming over here with their advanced ceramic technology.
What was wrong with cupping your hands to drink?3 -
With a bigly penchant for ORANGE.Leon said:
My main identity is WHITETheScreamingEagles said:
So you’re really French.Leon said:I am a white Anglo-Celtic European Briton, descended from William the Conqueror and Maud Ingelric, the Saxon Princess, and also the grandson of Annie Maud Jory, last of the Cornish bal maidens, a child slave sent to the tin mines of st Agnes to break rocks, up at grass
It explains a lot.2 -
UK rather than GB is a Brexit benefit. It was a Boris wheeze to compensate Northern Ireland for breaking his pledge on the border down the Irish Sea.IanB2 said:peter_from_putney said:
I'm surprised by just how few cars and other vehicles these days continue to display the once all too familiar black and white oval "GB" stickers at the rear signifying that it is registered in Great Britain. I was even more surprised very recently to notice a vehicle displaying a "UK" sticker in this style. Unless there has been a recent change, surely this contravenes the regulations. If there has been such a change, what letters are now required to signify that a particular vehicle is registered in Northern Ireland?SouthamObserver said:I have multiple identities:
I am a Londoner in England
From Camden in London
I am English in the rest of the UK, Europe and the Commonwealth.
British everywhere else.
Except in the US, where I am European.
But if I'm asked where I am from I always say England. I guess that makes me English most of all.
Yes, there’s been a change. A GB sticker is now non compliant.
ETA scooped by TimS.0 -
Whereas a good keeper can be worth a couple of wickets per innings.noneoftheabove said:
Its just an equation to balance.kle4 said:
I've never understood why we cannot find enough excellent batsmen to enable selecting the best wicketkeeper, so long that person is not completely terrible with the bat.TheScreamingEagles said:England to name Jamie Smith as wicketkeeper for West Indies Test series
Exclusive: Surrey man to get nod ahead of county team-mate Ben Foakes thanks to superiority with bat, both in red and white-ball formats
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/06/29/england-jamie-smith-wicketkeeper-west-indies-series/
If a keeper is 5 runs an innings better as keeper than his rival, he can be about 5 runs worse than that rival with the bat, but if he is 10 runs worse you'd pick the worse keeper.
Judging those numbers, and how much they change in different conditions, isn't easy but the logic is straightforward.
Yes it’s good if your keeper and bowlers can also bat, but you should have enough strength at the top of the order to not need to worry too much about trying to pick a keeping all-rounder rather than a specialist.2 -
To me it seems pretty straightforward, a slightly better batting average seems outweighed by the significance of a better chance for wickets, and the prevention of extras, that a wicket keeper can provide.Sandpit said:
Whereas a good keeper can be worth a couple of wickets per innings.noneoftheabove said:
Its just an equation to balance.kle4 said:
I've never understood why we cannot find enough excellent batsmen to enable selecting the best wicketkeeper, so long that person is not completely terrible with the bat.TheScreamingEagles said:England to name Jamie Smith as wicketkeeper for West Indies Test series
Exclusive: Surrey man to get nod ahead of county team-mate Ben Foakes thanks to superiority with bat, both in red and white-ball formats
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/06/29/england-jamie-smith-wicketkeeper-west-indies-series/
If a keeper is 5 runs an innings better as keeper than his rival, he can be about 5 runs worse than that rival with the bat, but if he is 10 runs worse you'd pick the worse keeper.
Judging those numbers, and how much they change in different conditions, isn't easy but the logic is straightforward.
Wickets greater than runs, if the top order have done their jobs.1 -
Interesting tweet here looking at MRP in a probabilistic way:
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807025080028807658?t=O7EkRQBmcTBUdOR99PCDVQ&s=19
Looking differently at the probabilities.
Seats where 1 party has >85% chance of winning:
LAB 403
LD 34
CON 16
SNP 2
PC 1
RFM 0
GRN 0
No party >85%: 175
These probability still assume Survation's polling is correct.
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807027204527710695?t=3ElZisztluWQ-VdaUoVDCQ&s=19
So 175 up for grabs.,5 -
So, even though 3 Reform candidates have been disowned by the Party and Farage says he wants nothing to do with them, people should still vote for them to support Reform's platform.
O-Kay....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c727xz2kkgjo0 -
He was 'the Bastard' to his friends.Theuniondivvie said:
A right bastard.Farooq said:William the Conqueror was a fat sadist who was hated by everyone
He was a whole lot worse to his enemies.1 -
He was French, that Guillaume le ConFarooq said:
I think William was an unusually fractious and reviled individual. But I'm sure you can find other nasty pieces of work.kle4 said:
Did any of the Norman or Angevin kings get along with their kids? People give John shit about what he did with Richard, but they were all at it I think.Farooq said:
The point is, when he died, the last person who cared about him died. His kids fucked off as soon as he named their inheritance, even before he expired. They hated the bastard just like everyone else did.Leon said:P
I doubt he particularly cared at that pointFarooq said:
In every sense.Theuniondivvie said:
A right bastard.Farooq said:William the Conqueror was a fat sadist who was hated by everyone
When the fucker died, nobody could be bothered to deal with the body. They took his stuff, including his clothes, and his naked body was left to start to rot until some random came and cleaned up the mess. When he was interred, he was so bloated by decay that he burst.
He literally died from injuries sustained while burning a church on some petty revenge mission. The fire spooked his horse and he ripped his bladder on the pommel. He died as he lived: being an utter shit to everyone.
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Scotland is going to be fun!Foxy said:Interesting tweet here looking at MRP in a probabilistic way:
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807025080028807658?t=O7EkRQBmcTBUdOR99PCDVQ&s=19
Looking differently at the probabilities.
Seats where 1 party has >85% chance of winning:
LAB 403
LD 34
CON 16
SNP 2
PC 1
RFM 0
GRN 0
No party >85%: 175
These probability still assume Survation's polling is correct.
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807027204527710695?t=3ElZisztluWQ-VdaUoVDCQ&s=19
So 175 up for grabs.,0 -
he would probably have grown up to be a decent chap if he hadnt constantly been called Robert Le Bellend at school.kle4 said:
Not William himself, but that does put me in mind of a quote I read of a Norman lord from around that time, in the postscript of a novel set in the period, describing one of the historical characters.Farooq said:William the Conqueror was a fat sadist who was hated by everyone
The most powerful and the most most dangerous of the Norman baronage, he was also the most repellant in character. In a society of ruffianly, bloodthirsty men, Robert de Belleme stands out as particularly atrocious; an evil, treacherous man with an insatiable ambition and a love of cruelty for cruelty's sake; a medieval sadist, whose ingenious barbarities were proverbal among the people of that time.
Sounds like a real go getter, I think a descendant might be standing for Reform somewhere in East Anglia.2 -
Also, I did wonder if it might be possible to walk or cycle the length of the UK without passing through a Conservative constituency. Not likely at the moment.Eabhal said:
Scotland is going to be fun!Foxy said:Interesting tweet here looking at MRP in a probabilistic way:
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807025080028807658?t=O7EkRQBmcTBUdOR99PCDVQ&s=19
Looking differently at the probabilities.
Seats where 1 party has >85% chance of winning:
LAB 403
LD 34
CON 16
SNP 2
PC 1
RFM 0
GRN 0
No party >85%: 175
These probability still assume Survation's polling is correct.
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807027204527710695?t=3ElZisztluWQ-VdaUoVDCQ&s=19
So 175 up for grabs.,0 -
Increasingly the contents of her comments reminds me of the way some parts of society sought to treat the gay community a generation (or maybe even a few generations) ago. She picks individual cases (some real some not) and tries to use them as an excuse for bashing an entire community as if to suggest that everyone in that community is the same. Many would call it pure bigotry and hatred.kle4 said:
She is starting to lose me a little. She's done well to reveal that a lot of people going after her have been wildly disproportionate, she doesn't want to fall into the same trap.BatteryCorrectHorse said:JK Rowling says David Tennant is part of ‘gender Taliban’ after trans rights support
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/jk-rowling-david-tennant-trans-kemi-badenoch-b2570909.html
Another grown-up response from JK Rowling.
The irony is that in the end she is not doing her cause any favours. The trans community exists and will not be going away. If she has genuine concerns (and many accept there are issues society needs to address) she would be better raising them coherently and specifically. Instead she begins to sound just like a child going on about picking soap up in the shower. It’s boring and pointless.
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If, of course, they dropped Ollie Pope for Josh Bohannon and Jonny Bairstow for Jamie Smith, they could still have Foakes keeping wicket.TheScreamingEagles said:England to name Jamie Smith as wicketkeeper for West Indies Test series
Exclusive: Surrey man to get nod ahead of county team-mate Ben Foakes thanks to superiority with bat, both in red and white-ball formats
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/06/29/england-jamie-smith-wicketkeeper-west-indies-series/1 -
Sounds more like he pissed off.Farooq said:
I think William was an unusually fractious and reviled individual. But I'm sure you can find other nasty pieces of work.kle4 said:
Did any of the Norman or Angevin kings get along with their kids? People give John shit about what he did with Richard, but they were all at it I think.Farooq said:
The point is, when he died, the last person who cared about him died. His kids fucked off as soon as he named their inheritance, even before he expired. They hated the bastard just like everyone else did.Leon said:P
I doubt he particularly cared at that pointFarooq said:
In every sense.Theuniondivvie said:
A right bastard.Farooq said:William the Conqueror was a fat sadist who was hated by everyone
When the fucker died, nobody could be bothered to deal with the body. They took his stuff, including his clothes, and his naked body was left to start to rot until some random came and cleaned up the mess. When he was interred, he was so bloated by decay that he burst.
He literally died from injuries sustained while burning a church on some petty revenge mission. The fire spooked his horse and he ripped his bladder on the pommel. He died as he lived: being an utter shit to everyone.0 -
If its peak Foakes vs peak Gilchrist who are you picking?kle4 said:
To me it seems pretty straightforward, a slightly better batting average seems outweighed by the significance of a better chance for wickets, and the prevention of extras, that a wicket keeper can provide.Sandpit said:
Whereas a good keeper can be worth a couple of wickets per innings.noneoftheabove said:
Its just an equation to balance.kle4 said:
I've never understood why we cannot find enough excellent batsmen to enable selecting the best wicketkeeper, so long that person is not completely terrible with the bat.TheScreamingEagles said:England to name Jamie Smith as wicketkeeper for West Indies Test series
Exclusive: Surrey man to get nod ahead of county team-mate Ben Foakes thanks to superiority with bat, both in red and white-ball formats
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/06/29/england-jamie-smith-wicketkeeper-west-indies-series/
If a keeper is 5 runs an innings better as keeper than his rival, he can be about 5 runs worse than that rival with the bat, but if he is 10 runs worse you'd pick the worse keeper.
Judging those numbers, and how much they change in different conditions, isn't easy but the logic is straightforward.
Wickets greater than runs, if the top order have done their jobs.
Foakes is definitely the better keeper but the decsion is not close because Gilchrist averages 18 more runs per innings, than Foakes, and doesnt drop anywhere near half a catch extra or concede many extras per innings.0 -
Considering that Blair "only" ended up with 418 in total...Foxy said:Interesting tweet here looking at MRP in a probabilistic way:
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807025080028807658?t=O7EkRQBmcTBUdOR99PCDVQ&s=19
Looking differently at the probabilities.
Seats where 1 party has >85% chance of winning:
LAB 403
LD 34
CON 16
SNP 2
PC 1
RFM 0
GRN 0
No party >85%: 175
These probability still assume Survation's polling is correct.
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807027204527710695?t=3ElZisztluWQ-VdaUoVDCQ&s=19
So 175 up for grabs.,
Someone is in for a career-ending night on Thursday. Either the Conservative Party, or the opinion polling industry.1 -
Despite everything, I think the SNP will do well. Independence will drive voting even with a fairly useless SNP party.Eabhal said:
Scotland is going to be fun!Foxy said:Interesting tweet here looking at MRP in a probabilistic way:
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807025080028807658?t=O7EkRQBmcTBUdOR99PCDVQ&s=19
Looking differently at the probabilities.
Seats where 1 party has >85% chance of winning:
LAB 403
LD 34
CON 16
SNP 2
PC 1
RFM 0
GRN 0
No party >85%: 175
These probability still assume Survation's polling is correct.
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807027204527710695?t=3ElZisztluWQ-VdaUoVDCQ&s=19
So 175 up for grabs.,0 -
No, for the good reason there are no Labour constituencies on the south coast that don't have Tory seats next door.Eabhal said:
Also, I did wonder if it might be possible to walk or cycle the length of the UK without passing through a Conservative constituency. Not likely at the moment.Eabhal said:
Scotland is going to be fun!Foxy said:Interesting tweet here looking at MRP in a probabilistic way:
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807025080028807658?t=O7EkRQBmcTBUdOR99PCDVQ&s=19
Looking differently at the probabilities.
Seats where 1 party has >85% chance of winning:
LAB 403
LD 34
CON 16
SNP 2
PC 1
RFM 0
GRN 0
No party >85%: 175
These probability still assume Survation's polling is correct.
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807027204527710695?t=3ElZisztluWQ-VdaUoVDCQ&s=19
So 175 up for grabs.,
Also, the Tories have a lock on seats in the Scottish Borders.0 -
The Breton language does not exist. I have now concluded this. Three weeks travelling all over Brittany - from big cities to tiny far flung islands (like ouessant, or le Sein, where it might be likely to survive) and I have not heard it once. Not a peep
The French government claims 250,000 people speak it. They simply do not. Whereas I’ve heard Scottish Gaelic in Scotland and Irish in Ireland - and the claimed numbers of speakers of these languages are far lower0 -
I'm positive on their chances compared to most, I think they will pick up several Con seats and will hold up better than expected in a number of others.Foxy said:
Despite everything, I think the SNP will do well. Independence will drive voting even with a fairly useless SNP party.Eabhal said:
Scotland is going to be fun!Foxy said:Interesting tweet here looking at MRP in a probabilistic way:
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807025080028807658?t=O7EkRQBmcTBUdOR99PCDVQ&s=19
Looking differently at the probabilities.
Seats where 1 party has >85% chance of winning:
LAB 403
LD 34
CON 16
SNP 2
PC 1
RFM 0
GRN 0
No party >85%: 175
These probability still assume Survation's polling is correct.
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807027204527710695?t=3ElZisztluWQ-VdaUoVDCQ&s=19
So 175 up for grabs.,
Estimating that based on second hand incomplete data from a vantage in rural southern England means I am almost certain to be best placed to make that prediction too.0 -
Yes, but how many of the options are like Gilchrist? Or even comparable to him?noneoftheabove said:
If its peak Foakes vs peak Gilchrist who are you picking?kle4 said:
To me it seems pretty straightforward, a slightly better batting average seems outweighed by the significance of a better chance for wickets, and the prevention of extras, that a wicket keeper can provide.Sandpit said:
Whereas a good keeper can be worth a couple of wickets per innings.noneoftheabove said:
Its just an equation to balance.kle4 said:
I've never understood why we cannot find enough excellent batsmen to enable selecting the best wicketkeeper, so long that person is not completely terrible with the bat.TheScreamingEagles said:England to name Jamie Smith as wicketkeeper for West Indies Test series
Exclusive: Surrey man to get nod ahead of county team-mate Ben Foakes thanks to superiority with bat, both in red and white-ball formats
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/06/29/england-jamie-smith-wicketkeeper-west-indies-series/
If a keeper is 5 runs an innings better as keeper than his rival, he can be about 5 runs worse than that rival with the bat, but if he is 10 runs worse you'd pick the worse keeper.
Judging those numbers, and how much they change in different conditions, isn't easy but the logic is straightforward.
Wickets greater than runs, if the top order have done their jobs.
Foakes is definitely the better keeper but the decsion is not close because Gilchrist averages 18 more runs per innings, than Foakes, and doesnt drop anywhere near half a catch extra or concede many extras per innings.0 -
Exmouth and Exeter East looks a close betting contest, Reform, LD, Lab, Con all above evens and below 7-10
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Conservative party members could lose their final say over who becomes Tory leader as senior figures weigh up whether to change the rules if they suffer an election defeat.
Two Cabinet ministers have expressed interest to The Telegraph about diluting the voting power of members given criticism over how the grassroots selected Liz Truss in 2022.
Similar arguments have been made in public and private by influential Tories in the last year amid frustration at how Ms Truss’s premiership backfired, sending the party’s opinion poll rating plummeting.
While Tory candidates are insisting it is still possible to win the general election next Thursday, privately many are braced for defeat, with minds turning to what may come afterwards.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/tory-members-new-party-leader-general-election/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1719605657-11 -
It's had a a tumultuous time with parliamentary seats in the last 15 years, and that looks to be the case once more.Eabhal said:
Scotland is going to be fun!Foxy said:Interesting tweet here looking at MRP in a probabilistic way:
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807025080028807658?t=O7EkRQBmcTBUdOR99PCDVQ&s=19
Looking differently at the probabilities.
Seats where 1 party has >85% chance of winning:
LAB 403
LD 34
CON 16
SNP 2
PC 1
RFM 0
GRN 0
No party >85%: 175
These probability still assume Survation's polling is correct.
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807027204527710695?t=3ElZisztluWQ-VdaUoVDCQ&s=19
So 175 up for grabs.,
I'm in a seat which may change hands (or at least be competitive) for the first time in a century, so it is exciting to think of the flexibility they must have had in recent times.0 -
Orderic Vitalis, who was generally an admirer of William (although he denounced the Harrying of the North), certainly loathed Robert Le Bellend.paulyork64 said:
he would probably have grown up to be a decent chap if he hadnt constantly been called Robert Le Bellend at school.kle4 said:
Not William himself, but that does put me in mind of a quote I read of a Norman lord from around that time, in the postscript of a novel set in the period, describing one of the historical characters.Farooq said:William the Conqueror was a fat sadist who was hated by everyone
The most powerful and the most most dangerous of the Norman baronage, he was also the most repellant in character. In a society of ruffianly, bloodthirsty men, Robert de Belleme stands out as particularly atrocious; an evil, treacherous man with an insatiable ambition and a love of cruelty for cruelty's sake; a medieval sadist, whose ingenious barbarities were proverbal among the people of that time.
Sounds like a real go getter, I think a descendant might be standing for Reform somewhere in East Anglia.
Being a “Batard” at least meant you were highborn. Lowborn children out of wedlock were usually called “whoreson.”1 -
English Nationalism gives 'Nationalism' a bad name. In Monaco there's a small zoo by the harbour that has a cockatoo which sings 'La Marseillaise' every time you walk past and after you've listened laughed and start to walk away he says. 'Bye Bye' with a slight bow of his head.
0 -
My spreadsheet has the current betting favourite as a column alongside a slew of MRPs and models. I'll complete it this evening4
-
Tories 'highly alarmed' by network of pro-Russian Facebook pages interfering in UK election
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-29/uk-election-pro-russian-facebook-pages-coordinating/104038246
0 -
The Members would riot, we've seen comments before about what's the point if you don't get to choose the leader (never mind it is a very recent innovation)TheScreamingEagles said:Conservative party members could lose their final say over who becomes Tory leader as senior figures weigh up whether to change the rules if they suffer an election defeat.
Two Cabinet ministers have expressed interest to The Telegraph about diluting the voting power of members given criticism over how the grassroots selected Liz Truss in 2022.
Similar arguments have been made in public and private by influential Tories in the last year amid frustration at how Ms Truss’s premiership backfired, sending the party’s opinion poll rating plummeting.
While Tory candidates are insisting it is still possible to win the general election next Thursday, privately many are braced for defeat, with minds turning to what may come afterwards.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/tory-members-new-party-leader-general-election/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1719605657-1
Notably involving the Members in the voting process has not led to an increase in the Membership as might have been hoped when it was brought in.
Plus, whilst some of the post Truss troubles are due to the damage she caused, at the end of the day the Members were given what transpired to be two duds of candidates, so how big an error did they really make?0 -
The logic applies though. You compare the benefit to the battings innings vs the cost of the bowling innings. Quantify and make your choice. It should vary quite a bit by pitch and who your bowlers are.kle4 said:
Yes, but how many of the options are like Gilchrist? Or even comparable to him?noneoftheabove said:
If its peak Foakes vs peak Gilchrist who are you picking?kle4 said:
To me it seems pretty straightforward, a slightly better batting average seems outweighed by the significance of a better chance for wickets, and the prevention of extras, that a wicket keeper can provide.Sandpit said:
Whereas a good keeper can be worth a couple of wickets per innings.noneoftheabove said:
Its just an equation to balance.kle4 said:
I've never understood why we cannot find enough excellent batsmen to enable selecting the best wicketkeeper, so long that person is not completely terrible with the bat.TheScreamingEagles said:England to name Jamie Smith as wicketkeeper for West Indies Test series
Exclusive: Surrey man to get nod ahead of county team-mate Ben Foakes thanks to superiority with bat, both in red and white-ball formats
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/06/29/england-jamie-smith-wicketkeeper-west-indies-series/
If a keeper is 5 runs an innings better as keeper than his rival, he can be about 5 runs worse than that rival with the bat, but if he is 10 runs worse you'd pick the worse keeper.
Judging those numbers, and how much they change in different conditions, isn't easy but the logic is straightforward.
Wickets greater than runs, if the top order have done their jobs.
Foakes is definitely the better keeper but the decsion is not close because Gilchrist averages 18 more runs per innings, than Foakes, and doesnt drop anywhere near half a catch extra or concede many extras per innings.0 -
The problem was entirely on the MPs, selecting two names and then refusing to back the winner.TheScreamingEagles said:Conservative party members could lose their final say over who becomes Tory leader as senior figures weigh up whether to change the rules if they suffer an election defeat.
Two Cabinet ministers have expressed interest to The Telegraph about diluting the voting power of members given criticism over how the grassroots selected Liz Truss in 2022.
Similar arguments have been made in public and private by influential Tories in the last year amid frustration at how Ms Truss’s premiership backfired, sending the party’s opinion poll rating plummeting.
While Tory candidates are insisting it is still possible to win the general election next Thursday, privately many are braced for defeat, with minds turning to what may come afterwards.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/tory-members-new-party-leader-general-election/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1719605657-1
If you don’t want someone to be leader, then don’t nominate them in the first place.2 -
Good wicketkeepers also set the standard for fielding, and offer important guidance to the bowlers.kle4 said:
To me it seems pretty straightforward, a slightly better batting average seems outweighed by the significance of a better chance for wickets, and the prevention of extras, that a wicket keeper can provide.Sandpit said:
Whereas a good keeper can be worth a couple of wickets per innings.noneoftheabove said:
Its just an equation to balance.kle4 said:
I've never understood why we cannot find enough excellent batsmen to enable selecting the best wicketkeeper, so long that person is not completely terrible with the bat.TheScreamingEagles said:England to name Jamie Smith as wicketkeeper for West Indies Test series
Exclusive: Surrey man to get nod ahead of county team-mate Ben Foakes thanks to superiority with bat, both in red and white-ball formats
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/06/29/england-jamie-smith-wicketkeeper-west-indies-series/
If a keeper is 5 runs an innings better as keeper than his rival, he can be about 5 runs worse than that rival with the bat, but if he is 10 runs worse you'd pick the worse keeper.
Judging those numbers, and how much they change in different conditions, isn't easy but the logic is straightforward.
Wickets greater than runs, if the top order have done their jobs.
It was Bob Taylor who suggested to Brearley that perhaps Bob Willis should switch ends at Headingley '81.1 -
It is quite possible the betting value lies in the (almost) nailed-on favourites rather than the outsiders with a squeak.Pulpstar said:My spreadsheet has the current betting favourite as a column alongside a slew of MRPs and models. I'll complete it this evening
1 -
And not that rare anymore. Gilchrist, Sangakarra, Dhoni, De Villiers at the top level, with McCullum, Stewart, Prior, Haddin a level below but still quality batters.noneoftheabove said:
The logic applies though. You compare the benefit to the battings innings vs the cost of the bowling innings. Quantify and make your choice. It should vary quite a bit by pitch and who your bowlers are.kle4 said:
Yes, but how many of the options are like Gilchrist? Or even comparable to him?noneoftheabove said:
If its peak Foakes vs peak Gilchrist who are you picking?kle4 said:
To me it seems pretty straightforward, a slightly better batting average seems outweighed by the significance of a better chance for wickets, and the prevention of extras, that a wicket keeper can provide.Sandpit said:
Whereas a good keeper can be worth a couple of wickets per innings.noneoftheabove said:
Its just an equation to balance.kle4 said:
I've never understood why we cannot find enough excellent batsmen to enable selecting the best wicketkeeper, so long that person is not completely terrible with the bat.TheScreamingEagles said:England to name Jamie Smith as wicketkeeper for West Indies Test series
Exclusive: Surrey man to get nod ahead of county team-mate Ben Foakes thanks to superiority with bat, both in red and white-ball formats
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/06/29/england-jamie-smith-wicketkeeper-west-indies-series/
If a keeper is 5 runs an innings better as keeper than his rival, he can be about 5 runs worse than that rival with the bat, but if he is 10 runs worse you'd pick the worse keeper.
Judging those numbers, and how much they change in different conditions, isn't easy but the logic is straightforward.
Wickets greater than runs, if the top order have done their jobs.
Foakes is definitely the better keeper but the decsion is not close because Gilchrist averages 18 more runs per innings, than Foakes, and doesnt drop anywhere near half a catch extra or concede many extras per innings.0 -
good game.ydoethur said:
No, for the good reason there are no Labour constituencies on the south coast that don't have Tory seats next door.Eabhal said:
Also, I did wonder if it might be possible to walk or cycle the length of the UK without passing through a Conservative constituency. Not likely at the moment.Eabhal said:
Scotland is going to be fun!Foxy said:Interesting tweet here looking at MRP in a probabilistic way:
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807025080028807658?t=O7EkRQBmcTBUdOR99PCDVQ&s=19
Looking differently at the probabilities.
Seats where 1 party has >85% chance of winning:
LAB 403
LD 34
CON 16
SNP 2
PC 1
RFM 0
GRN 0
No party >85%: 175
These probability still assume Survation's polling is correct.
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807027204527710695?t=3ElZisztluWQ-VdaUoVDCQ&s=19
So 175 up for grabs.,
Also, the Tories have a lock on seats in the Scottish Borders.
for my betting i was comparing a constituency to its neighbours and it has 9. this got me wondering which one has the most neighbours and how many.0 -
This could be our last excuse to remember Michael Gove's letter in Viz deploring the standard of English teaching in schools because 90 per cent of emails he received misspelled the word bellend.paulyork64 said:
he would probably have grown up to be a decent chap if he hadnt constantly been called Robert Le Bellend at school.kle4 said:
Not William himself, but that does put me in mind of a quote I read of a Norman lord from around that time, in the postscript of a novel set in the period, describing one of the historical characters.Farooq said:William the Conqueror was a fat sadist who was hated by everyone
The most powerful and the most most dangerous of the Norman baronage, he was also the most repellant in character. In a society of ruffianly, bloodthirsty men, Robert de Belleme stands out as particularly atrocious; an evil, treacherous man with an insatiable ambition and a love of cruelty for cruelty's sake; a medieval sadist, whose ingenious barbarities were proverbal among the people of that time.
Sounds like a real go getter, I think a descendant might be standing for Reform somewhere in East Anglia.1 -
Indeed! If Con MP's didn't want Tory members to vote for Loopy Lizzie they shouldn't have put her on the ballot. Con members were given an awful choice (granted they voted for the worst of the two, though)kle4 said:
Plus, whilst some of the post Truss troubles are due to the damage she caused, at the end of the day the Members were given what transpired to be two duds of candidates, so how big an error did they really make?1 -
I think you can with some of the MRPs. The Survation MRP appears to have a top to bottom route without Tory seats.ydoethur said:
No, for the good reason there are no Labour constituencies on the south coast that don't have Tory seats next door.Eabhal said:
Also, I did wonder if it might be possible to walk or cycle the length of the UK without passing through a Conservative constituency. Not likely at the moment.Eabhal said:
Scotland is going to be fun!Foxy said:Interesting tweet here looking at MRP in a probabilistic way:
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807025080028807658?t=O7EkRQBmcTBUdOR99PCDVQ&s=19
Looking differently at the probabilities.
Seats where 1 party has >85% chance of winning:
LAB 403
LD 34
CON 16
SNP 2
PC 1
RFM 0
GRN 0
No party >85%: 175
These probability still assume Survation's polling is correct.
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807027204527710695?t=3ElZisztluWQ-VdaUoVDCQ&s=19
So 175 up for grabs.,
Also, the Tories have a lock on seats in the Scottish Borders.
You'd go through a lot of Lib Dem seats in the South.
On the Borders, you've got Labour or SNP possibilities in all three. They're also mostly showing fairly lowish Tory votes, so would go easily with tactical voting, but it looks like they may survive due to the three way split.
https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/0 -
I wouldn't riot.kle4 said:
The Members would riot, we've seen comments before about what's the point if you don't get to choose the leader (never mind it is a very recent innovation)TheScreamingEagles said:Conservative party members could lose their final say over who becomes Tory leader as senior figures weigh up whether to change the rules if they suffer an election defeat.
Two Cabinet ministers have expressed interest to The Telegraph about diluting the voting power of members given criticism over how the grassroots selected Liz Truss in 2022.
Similar arguments have been made in public and private by influential Tories in the last year amid frustration at how Ms Truss’s premiership backfired, sending the party’s opinion poll rating plummeting.
While Tory candidates are insisting it is still possible to win the general election next Thursday, privately many are braced for defeat, with minds turning to what may come afterwards.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/tory-members-new-party-leader-general-election/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1719605657-1
Notably involving the Members in the voting process has not led to an increase in the Membership as might have been hoped when it was brought in.
Plus, whilst some of the post Truss troubles are due to the damage she caused, at the end of the day the Members were given what transpired to be two duds of candidates, so how big an error did they really make?1 -
I remain British by birth, but English by the grace of God, as the saying goes.1
-
I meant at the moment.nova said:
I think you can with some of the MRPs. The Survation MRP appears to have a top to bottom route without Tory seats.ydoethur said:
No, for the good reason there are no Labour constituencies on the south coast that don't have Tory seats next door.Eabhal said:
Also, I did wonder if it might be possible to walk or cycle the length of the UK without passing through a Conservative constituency. Not likely at the moment.Eabhal said:
Scotland is going to be fun!Foxy said:Interesting tweet here looking at MRP in a probabilistic way:
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807025080028807658?t=O7EkRQBmcTBUdOR99PCDVQ&s=19
Looking differently at the probabilities.
Seats where 1 party has >85% chance of winning:
LAB 403
LD 34
CON 16
SNP 2
PC 1
RFM 0
GRN 0
No party >85%: 175
These probability still assume Survation's polling is correct.
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807027204527710695?t=3ElZisztluWQ-VdaUoVDCQ&s=19
So 175 up for grabs.,
Also, the Tories have a lock on seats in the Scottish Borders.
You'd go through a lot of Lib Dem seats in the South.
On the Borders, you've got Labour or SNP possibilities in all three. They're also mostly showing fairly lowish Tory votes, so would go easily with tactical voting, but it looks like they may survive due to the three way split.
https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/0 -
There are plenty of other nationalisms giving nationalism a bad name. Including Russian, Turkish, Azeri/Armenian, Hindu, Serbian, Hungarian, and Han-Chinese.Roger said:English Nationalism gives 'Nationalism' a bad name. In Monaco there's a small zoo by the harbour that has a cockatoo which sings 'La Marseillaise' every time you walk past and after you've listened laughed and start to walk away he says. 'Bye Bye' with a slight bow of his head.
2 -
MRPs are good for the overall picture, but not good for constituencies where personal votes, by-elections, tactical voting, etc, are important.3
-
The members are not generally of prime rioting age, to be fair.TheScreamingEagles said:
I wouldn't riot.kle4 said:
The Members would riot, we've seen comments before about what's the point if you don't get to choose the leader (never mind it is a very recent innovation)TheScreamingEagles said:Conservative party members could lose their final say over who becomes Tory leader as senior figures weigh up whether to change the rules if they suffer an election defeat.
Two Cabinet ministers have expressed interest to The Telegraph about diluting the voting power of members given criticism over how the grassroots selected Liz Truss in 2022.
Similar arguments have been made in public and private by influential Tories in the last year amid frustration at how Ms Truss’s premiership backfired, sending the party’s opinion poll rating plummeting.
While Tory candidates are insisting it is still possible to win the general election next Thursday, privately many are braced for defeat, with minds turning to what may come afterwards.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/tory-members-new-party-leader-general-election/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1719605657-1
Notably involving the Members in the voting process has not led to an increase in the Membership as might have been hoped when it was brought in.
Plus, whilst some of the post Truss troubles are due to the damage she caused, at the end of the day the Members were given what transpired to be two duds of candidates, so how big an error did they really make?0 -
I meant "at the moment based on current MRPs". Sorry!ydoethur said:
I meant at the moment.nova said:
I think you can with some of the MRPs. The Survation MRP appears to have a top to bottom route without Tory seats.ydoethur said:
No, for the good reason there are no Labour constituencies on the south coast that don't have Tory seats next door.Eabhal said:
Also, I did wonder if it might be possible to walk or cycle the length of the UK without passing through a Conservative constituency. Not likely at the moment.Eabhal said:
Scotland is going to be fun!Foxy said:Interesting tweet here looking at MRP in a probabilistic way:
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807025080028807658?t=O7EkRQBmcTBUdOR99PCDVQ&s=19
Looking differently at the probabilities.
Seats where 1 party has >85% chance of winning:
LAB 403
LD 34
CON 16
SNP 2
PC 1
RFM 0
GRN 0
No party >85%: 175
These probability still assume Survation's polling is correct.
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807027204527710695?t=3ElZisztluWQ-VdaUoVDCQ&s=19
So 175 up for grabs.,
Also, the Tories have a lock on seats in the Scottish Borders.
You'd go through a lot of Lib Dem seats in the South.
On the Borders, you've got Labour or SNP possibilities in all three. They're also mostly showing fairly lowish Tory votes, so would go easily with tactical voting, but it looks like they may survive due to the three way split.
https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/
Would be a fun novelty bet.0 -
And ScottishTimS said:
There are plenty of other nationalisms giving nationalism a bad name. Including Russian, Turkish, Azeri/Armenian, Hindu, Serbian, Hungarian, and Han-Chinese.Roger said:English Nationalism gives 'Nationalism' a bad name. In Monaco there's a small zoo by the harbour that has a cockatoo which sings 'La Marseillaise' every time you walk past and after you've listened laughed and start to walk away he says. 'Bye Bye' with a slight bow of his head.
0 -
It is worth pointing out that both Stewart and Sangakkara averaged significantly more with the bat when they didn't have to keep wicket - 46;34 for Stewart, 70:44 for Sangakkara.noneoftheabove said:
And not that rare anymore. Gilchrist, Sangakarra, Dhoni, De Villiers at the top level, with McCullum, Stewart, Prior, Haddin a level below but still quality batters.noneoftheabove said:
The logic applies though. You compare the benefit to the battings innings vs the cost of the bowling innings. Quantify and make your choice. It should vary quite a bit by pitch and who your bowlers are.kle4 said:
Yes, but how many of the options are like Gilchrist? Or even comparable to him?noneoftheabove said:
If its peak Foakes vs peak Gilchrist who are you picking?kle4 said:
To me it seems pretty straightforward, a slightly better batting average seems outweighed by the significance of a better chance for wickets, and the prevention of extras, that a wicket keeper can provide.Sandpit said:
Whereas a good keeper can be worth a couple of wickets per innings.noneoftheabove said:
Its just an equation to balance.kle4 said:
I've never understood why we cannot find enough excellent batsmen to enable selecting the best wicketkeeper, so long that person is not completely terrible with the bat.TheScreamingEagles said:England to name Jamie Smith as wicketkeeper for West Indies Test series
Exclusive: Surrey man to get nod ahead of county team-mate Ben Foakes thanks to superiority with bat, both in red and white-ball formats
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/06/29/england-jamie-smith-wicketkeeper-west-indies-series/
If a keeper is 5 runs an innings better as keeper than his rival, he can be about 5 runs worse than that rival with the bat, but if he is 10 runs worse you'd pick the worse keeper.
Judging those numbers, and how much they change in different conditions, isn't easy but the logic is straightforward.
Wickets greater than runs, if the top order have done their jobs.
Foakes is definitely the better keeper but the decsion is not close because Gilchrist averages 18 more runs per innings, than Foakes, and doesnt drop anywhere near half a catch extra or concede many extras per innings.
In trying to squeeze and extra batsman in, they compromised their best (in both cases, arguably for much of their careers only world class) batsman.
Michael Atherton got through 14 opening partners - as I remember only Stewart and Trescothick averaged over 40. Some didn't even make it into the teens.
How much stronger would England have been with Stewart hammering the new ball all the way through the 1990s and leaving the keeping to Russell?3 -
Nationalism, whether English, Scottish, Russian or anything, gives itself a bad name as it looks to exclude, marginalise, blame or in some cases oppress, others to the benefit of a favoured group.TimS said:
There are plenty of other nationalisms giving nationalism a bad name. Including Russian, Turkish, Azeri/Armenian, Hindu, Serbian, Hungarian, and Han-Chinese.Roger said:English Nationalism gives 'Nationalism' a bad name. In Monaco there's a small zoo by the harbour that has a cockatoo which sings 'La Marseillaise' every time you walk past and after you've listened laughed and start to walk away he says. 'Bye Bye' with a slight bow of his head.
Patriotism - belief that one's country has much to be proud of and things to like about it - isn't the same as it isn't necessarily exclusionary, and can help draw people together.1 -
The problem was the pool of names they had to choose fromSandpit said:The problem was entirely on the MPs, selecting two names and then refusing to back the winner.
If you don’t want someone to be leader, then don’t nominate them in the first place.
If you don't want only duds, don't select a vindictive clown as leader...1 -
Are they all 'crisis actors' ?MarqueeMark said:So, even though 3 Reform candidates have been disowned by the Party and Farage says he wants nothing to do with them, people should still vote for them to support Reform's platform.
O-Kay....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c727xz2kkgjo0 -
The members election campaign pushed both Rishi and especially Truss to the right - which resulted in the promises that created Truss's budget..kle4 said:
The Members would riot, we've seen comments before about what's the point if you don't get to choose the leader (never mind it is a very recent innovation)TheScreamingEagles said:Conservative party members could lose their final say over who becomes Tory leader as senior figures weigh up whether to change the rules if they suffer an election defeat.
Two Cabinet ministers have expressed interest to The Telegraph about diluting the voting power of members given criticism over how the grassroots selected Liz Truss in 2022.
Similar arguments have been made in public and private by influential Tories in the last year amid frustration at how Ms Truss’s premiership backfired, sending the party’s opinion poll rating plummeting.
While Tory candidates are insisting it is still possible to win the general election next Thursday, privately many are braced for defeat, with minds turning to what may come afterwards.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/tory-members-new-party-leader-general-election/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1719605657-1
Notably involving the Members in the voting process has not led to an increase in the Membership as might have been hoped when it was brought in.
Plus, whilst some of the post Truss troubles are due to the damage she caused, at the end of the day the Members were given what transpired to be two duds of candidates, so how big an error did they really make?
And if MPs had been left with the final say Rishi wouldn't have had such a mess to fix.0 -
NI.RobD said:
Edit: it does say 'British citizen' but this is absurd as the main texts say United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. And no way is NI part of Britain.1 -
Perhaps - I don't think any of them realised how cataclysmic taking down and replacing Truss was to the party's reputation and internal cohesion, however necessary - but his own choices since then have hardly inspired confidence.eek said:
The members election campaign pushed both Rishi and especially Truss to the right - which resulted in the promises that created Truss's budget..kle4 said:
The Members would riot, we've seen comments before about what's the point if you don't get to choose the leader (never mind it is a very recent innovation)TheScreamingEagles said:Conservative party members could lose their final say over who becomes Tory leader as senior figures weigh up whether to change the rules if they suffer an election defeat.
Two Cabinet ministers have expressed interest to The Telegraph about diluting the voting power of members given criticism over how the grassroots selected Liz Truss in 2022.
Similar arguments have been made in public and private by influential Tories in the last year amid frustration at how Ms Truss’s premiership backfired, sending the party’s opinion poll rating plummeting.
While Tory candidates are insisting it is still possible to win the general election next Thursday, privately many are braced for defeat, with minds turning to what may come afterwards.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/tory-members-new-party-leader-general-election/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1719605657-1
Notably involving the Members in the voting process has not led to an increase in the Membership as might have been hoped when it was brought in.
Plus, whilst some of the post Truss troubles are due to the damage she caused, at the end of the day the Members were given what transpired to be two duds of candidates, so how big an error did they really make?
And if MPs had been left with the final say Rishi wouldn't have had such a mess to fix.0 -
Coming to Brittany you realise what a feat the Welsh have achieved - keeping Welsh alive. It is easy to find people naturally speaking Welsh - thee are entire towns where it is the main language. You walk into bars and shops - they speak Welsh
When I first arrived in Brittany I asked guides where I could find native speakers. They were all all quite furtive - er, try a market, maybe the islands; dunno
Now I realise that they did not want to disappoint me. But the truth is Breton has vanished0 -
There is an argument, given the choice between Truss and Richi, members made the right choice...1
-
Mr. Leon, on that note, I've no idea how common Occitan is in Langue d'Oc any more.0
-
Looking ahead, as a non expert, so much data has been gathered by so many organisations, and predictions made, and with such huge variance, and this all made available in ways even I can sort of understand such as thisFoxy said:Interesting tweet here looking at MRP in a probabilistic way:
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807025080028807658?t=O7EkRQBmcTBUdOR99PCDVQ&s=19
Looking differently at the probabilities.
Seats where 1 party has >85% chance of winning:
LAB 403
LD 34
CON 16
SNP 2
PC 1
RFM 0
GRN 0
No party >85%: 175
These probability still assume Survation's polling is correct.
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807027204527710695?t=3ElZisztluWQ-VdaUoVDCQ&s=19
So 175 up for grabs.,
https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/
and a million other such, that after the event there will be limitless scope for analysis of who got what right and wrong, who did best, who did worst, and why etc so as to keep both PB and the fortune telling industry going for ages.1 -
No simple equation of British to the coverage of the UK state, that's all. Especially in recent years when people in NI have a dual status both as Irish/UK and as EU as well in contrast to rUK.RobD said:0 -
Language themed empire building is what the French do. Breton is probably as dead as Cornish and they are lying about it with a long term plan of making it an official language of the EU.Leon said:Coming to Brittany you realise what a feat the Welsh have achieved - keeping Welsh alive. It is easy to find people naturally speaking Welsh - thee are entire towns where it is the main language. You walk into bars and shops - they speak Welsh
When I first arrived in Brittany I asked guides where I could find native speakers. They were all all quite furtive - er, try a market, maybe the islands; dunno
Now I realise that they did not want to disappoint me. But the truth is Breton has vanished
I am having a French themed travel year - Polynésie. Bretagne. Algérie.0 -
I fail to see how any of that prevents someone from being British from birth.Carnyx said:
No simple equation of British to the coverage of the UK state, that's all. Especially in recent years when people in NI have a dual status both as Irish/UK and as EU as well in contrast to rUK.RobD said:2 -
Cowboy : Whoo! That is one crazy get-up, mister... Are you in the show?biggles said:I remain British by birth, but English by the grace of God, as the saying goes.
Austin Powers : No, actually, I'm English.
Cowboy : Oh... I'm sorry.0 -
Sky are joing the three Reform candidates quest. Nige is scared of Laura's invite. Coward. He knows he will come out the looser. Exposed. The wimp he is. Shame on him!0
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I’m pretty sure I’ve never heard it and I’ve been there a lot. The French are good at exterminating languages. It is an unpleasant aspect of their chauvinism. Then they moan that French is threatened by English. Pfff!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Leon, on that note, I've no idea how common Occitan is in Langue d'Oc any more.
I love hearing rare languages. I’ve heard Ancient Greek in tiny towns in Calabria - it clings on amazingly
I’ve heard siwi in Siwa in Egypt. A precious survival
My favourite was hearing Cimbrian German in the Italian Dolomites. Just 2200 speakers left! Yet I heard it and it’s really weird - like a sing song version of German
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cimbrian_language1 -
And in conversation, which is what I was doing, only a complete weirdo would say their nationality was “UK”. It can be an interesting test of what you really think as if asked overseas I will always say “British”. I reserve “English” for “if pressed” or “we’re playing another British nation”.RobD said:
Never understood Ireland being a “home nation” in conversation while I’m on the subject. I just think of it as another country. (As opposed to NI obviously - but I stick to my proposal that Scotland takes NI with it when it wins independence).
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Having declined from more than one million speakers around 1950 to about 200,000 in the first decade of the 21st century, Breton is classified as "severely endangered" by the UNESCO Atlas of the World's Languages in Danger.[4] However, the number of children attending bilingual classes rose 33% between 2006 and 2012 to 14,709.[3][1]Leon said:Coming to Brittany you realise what a feat the Welsh have achieved - keeping Welsh alive. It is easy to find people naturally speaking Welsh - thee are entire towns where it is the main language. You walk into bars and shops - they speak Welsh
When I first arrived in Brittany I asked guides where I could find native speakers. They were all all quite furtive - er, try a market, maybe the islands; dunno
Now I realise that they did not want to disappoint me. But the truth is Breton has vanished
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breton_language0 -
France has done its utmost to eradicate Breton - becoming more limited to older generation in inland villages... Very sad.
In marked contrast to Cymraeg which is booming (although still under pressure)0 -
Hmm, I checked and it doesn't appear to be linked to the Cimbri. A shame.
The Cimbri were a notable tribe that sought peaceful accommodation in the Roman Empire or, failing that, peaceful passage. They got repeatedly attacked and repeatedly annihilated Roman armies, with Arausio being a particularly bloody affair. In the end it was Marius, uncle of Julius Caesar (I think) who put them down. Ironically, that was one of the few occasions they actually wanted a battle.0 -
Good. The party leader has to be the person the MPs think is best to lead them in Parliament. The membership should have nothing to do with it.TheScreamingEagles said:Conservative party members could lose their final say over who becomes Tory leader as senior figures weigh up whether to change the rules if they suffer an election defeat.
Two Cabinet ministers have expressed interest to The Telegraph about diluting the voting power of members given criticism over how the grassroots selected Liz Truss in 2022.
Similar arguments have been made in public and private by influential Tories in the last year amid frustration at how Ms Truss’s premiership backfired, sending the party’s opinion poll rating plummeting.
While Tory candidates are insisting it is still possible to win the general election next Thursday, privately many are braced for defeat, with minds turning to what may come afterwards.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/tory-members-new-party-leader-general-election/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1719605657-17 -
Tweedledee said:
Language themed empire building is what the French do. Breton is probably as dead as Cornish and they are lying about it with a long term plan of making it an official language of the EU.Leon said:Coming to Brittany you realise what a feat the Welsh have achieved - keeping Welsh alive. It is easy to find people naturally speaking Welsh - thee are entire towns where it is the main language. You walk into bars and shops - they speak Welsh
When I first arrived in Brittany I asked guides where I could find native speakers. They were all all quite furtive - er, try a market, maybe the islands; dunno
Now I realise that they did not want to disappoint me. But the truth is Breton has vanished
I am having a French themed travel year - Polynésie. Bretagne. Algérie.
They really are lying about it
A language does not exist if it is not spoken naturally. The fact some kids learn it then forget it means nothing. The fact you can probably only hear it at Breton festivals means it is functionally dead
Which is quite incredible when you learn that there might have been a million speakers as late as 1950. Now all gone
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It seems to me there are just two traits which matter when it comes to being English.
- A fondness for drinking tea
- A delight in annoying the French and Scots at any and all opportunities.
I see nothing wrong in either of these things, indeed it's clearly the premier mark of civilisation. So I rather disagree with the header!
English nationalism is generally awful. It feels very contrived. I'm far more likely to think of myself as British than English, although I'm obviously both.
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They try and keep Jersey Norman French going, teaching it in schools here but it’s more a novelty than a living language. The oldies who are from generations of islanders still speak it to each other, an ex’s stepfather used to speak to his brothers and parents in it, sounds like South Africans speaking bad French.Tweedledee said:
Language themed empire building is what the French do. Breton is probably as dead as Cornish and they are lying about it with a long term plan of making it an official language of the EU.Leon said:Coming to Brittany you realise what a feat the Welsh have achieved - keeping Welsh alive. It is easy to find people naturally speaking Welsh - thee are entire towns where it is the main language. You walk into bars and shops - they speak Welsh
When I first arrived in Brittany I asked guides where I could find native speakers. They were all all quite furtive - er, try a market, maybe the islands; dunno
Now I realise that they did not want to disappoint me. But the truth is Breton has vanished
I am having a French themed travel year - Polynésie. Bretagne. Algérie.
I always chuckle thinking that when French tourists come here and they see all the signs etc in Jersey Norman French that they must think some tosser has tried to write in French and got it wrong as it has many differences that are clearer when seen written than spoken.0 -
I 100% agree. I believe in government Labour MPs select the leader but they should also do the same when I opposition.Richard_Tyndall said:
Good. The party leader has to be the person the MPs think is best to lead them in Parliament. The membership should have nothing to do with it.TheScreamingEagles said:Conservative party members could lose their final say over who becomes Tory leader as senior figures weigh up whether to change the rules if they suffer an election defeat.
Two Cabinet ministers have expressed interest to The Telegraph about diluting the voting power of members given criticism over how the grassroots selected Liz Truss in 2022.
Similar arguments have been made in public and private by influential Tories in the last year amid frustration at how Ms Truss’s premiership backfired, sending the party’s opinion poll rating plummeting.
While Tory candidates are insisting it is still possible to win the general election next Thursday, privately many are braced for defeat, with minds turning to what may come afterwards.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/tory-members-new-party-leader-general-election/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1719605657-1
Do not let people like me vote, we voted for Corbyn.1 -
Nationalism, however, tends to be both the cause, and the result, of democracy. It brings empires to an end. Of course, post-imperial democracy can be terrible for some minority groups, and indigenous peoples.MJW said:
Nationalism, whether English, Scottish, Russian or anything, gives itself a bad name as it looks to exclude, marginalise, blame or in some cases oppress, others to the benefit of a favoured group.TimS said:
There are plenty of other nationalisms giving nationalism a bad name. Including Russian, Turkish, Azeri/Armenian, Hindu, Serbian, Hungarian, and Han-Chinese.Roger said:English Nationalism gives 'Nationalism' a bad name. In Monaco there's a small zoo by the harbour that has a cockatoo which sings 'La Marseillaise' every time you walk past and after you've listened laughed and start to walk away he says. 'Bye Bye' with a slight bow of his head.
Patriotism - belief that one's country has much to be proud of and things to like about it - isn't the same as it isn't necessarily exclusionary, and can help draw people together.
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100000 left in France says Wikipedia. Also some in Spain Italy Monaco and North CarolinaMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Leon, on that note, I've no idea how common Occitan is in Langue d'Oc any more.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occitan_language0 -
You’ve travelled in Brittany a lot. Have you ever heard Breton spoken in a natural setting? Eg casually between people in shops or markets or bars etc?boulay said:
They try and keep Jersey Norman French going, teaching it in schools here but it’s more a novelty than a living language. The oldies who are from generations of islanders still speak it to each other, an ex’s stepfather used to speak to his brothers and parents in it, sounds like South Africans speaking bad French.Tweedledee said:
Language themed empire building is what the French do. Breton is probably as dead as Cornish and they are lying about it with a long term plan of making it an official language of the EU.Leon said:Coming to Brittany you realise what a feat the Welsh have achieved - keeping Welsh alive. It is easy to find people naturally speaking Welsh - thee are entire towns where it is the main language. You walk into bars and shops - they speak Welsh
When I first arrived in Brittany I asked guides where I could find native speakers. They were all all quite furtive - er, try a market, maybe the islands; dunno
Now I realise that they did not want to disappoint me. But the truth is Breton has vanished
I am having a French themed travel year - Polynésie. Bretagne. Algérie.
I always chuckle thinking that when French tourists come here and they see all the signs etc in Jersey Norman French that they must think some tosser has tried to write in French and got it wrong as it has many differences that are clearer when seen written than spoken.0 -
What is the point of being a Tory party member if you don't in your heart believe in the good chaps theory of government? The members' job is for the husbands to finance and prop up the bar and the womenfolk to make the cakes and organise the raffles so that the good chaps can run the country.GIN1138 said:
Indeed! If Con MP's didn't want Tory members to vote for Loopy Lizzie they shouldn't have put her on the ballot. Con members were given an awful choice (granted they voted for the worst of the two, though)kle4 said:
Plus, whilst some of the post Truss troubles are due to the damage she caused, at the end of the day the Members were given what transpired to be two duds of candidates, so how big an error did they really make?
It's a shame that the 'good chaps' theory of government has been so comprehensively trashed by the party of good chaps. It wasn't all good, but wasn't all bad either.
Having said that, this is Cumberland and my Labour candidate, Marcus Campbell Savours just happens to be the son of a former well known Cumberland Labour MP, Dale CS. So maybe the good chaps theory has just switched to Labour.0 -
Depends on whether a party wants to be a mass movement. Corbyn did achieve that (in relative terms) and engaged a lot of younger voters in 2017 in particular. I suspect being able to vote him in as leader helped.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I 100% agree. I believe in government Labour MPs select the leader but they should also do the same when I opposition.Richard_Tyndall said:
Good. The party leader has to be the person the MPs think is best to lead them in Parliament. The membership should have nothing to do with it.TheScreamingEagles said:Conservative party members could lose their final say over who becomes Tory leader as senior figures weigh up whether to change the rules if they suffer an election defeat.
Two Cabinet ministers have expressed interest to The Telegraph about diluting the voting power of members given criticism over how the grassroots selected Liz Truss in 2022.
Similar arguments have been made in public and private by influential Tories in the last year amid frustration at how Ms Truss’s premiership backfired, sending the party’s opinion poll rating plummeting.
While Tory candidates are insisting it is still possible to win the general election next Thursday, privately many are braced for defeat, with minds turning to what may come afterwards.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/28/tory-members-new-party-leader-general-election/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1719605657-1
Do not let people like me vote, we voted for Corbyn.
Remove that right to vote and we may never see such a link to supporters again. That would be sad.
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I have serious doubts about that numberTweedledee said:
100000 left in France says Wikipedia. Also some in Spain Italy Monaco and North CarolinaMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Leon, on that note, I've no idea how common Occitan is in Langue d'Oc any more.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occitan_language
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The Daily Mail tactical voting guide is like a far right wank dream0
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Yes, the lack of Anna Soubry was a blow they never really recovered from.Scott_xP said:
The problem was the pool of names they had to choose fromSandpit said:The problem was entirely on the MPs, selecting two names and then refusing to back the winner.
If you don’t want someone to be leader, then don’t nominate them in the first place.
If you don't want only duds, don't select a vindictive clown as leader...0
