The betting chart that tells you last night’s debate was a disaster for Biden – politicalbetting.com
The betting chart that tells you last night’s debate was a disaster for Biden – politicalbetting.com
The chart above shows the movement on Betfair’s US Presidential winner market over the last 24 hours.
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Listening to parts of the debate, I couldn't find a single thing said by Mr Trump that was actually true.
Except perhaps "My name is Donald Trump".
BBC coverage not making the point at all, beyond a polite "Trump made unsubstantiated statements."
Presentation, presentation, presentation.
It covers all eventualities except one.
They have also put an aggregated Tactical Voting recommendation to it: https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/tactical-voting/
If you are expecting Biden to have to withdraw, then you are expecting him to withdraw on the grounds that he is unable, due to age/infirmity, to continue.
If you think that’s likely, it is hard to see beyond Kamala Harris becoming the next President, whether she is the nominee or not.
Admitting that means admitting you cannot do the job now either.
Has anyone considered, whilst piling on about how the Democrats shouldn't have nominated Biden, that this debate was actually their exit strategy?
Like, I'm not saying they wanted this to happen. I'm sure they wanted to wake up today and everyone be singing the praises of Comeback Joe. But they chose to have this debate before the convention. And as someone who's always been resentful of Biden running again (he has a 34% chance of dying before the end of the next term, according to SSA stats) I was really glad they did this. Biden needed to prove he's still up to the job, and this was the quickest, easiest way of proving either way or another.
Now, with little effort, they can get him to step aside and move on and destroy Trump.
That's assuming they can get him to step aside.
Nonetheless useful.
I am fully aware it’s a progressive condition, but “I am a bit senile but I can still hang on to the nuclear codes til January next year” isn’t a particularly convincing line is it?
Lab: 516-407
Con: 155-53
LibD: 71-38
SNP: 37-9
Grn: 4-0
PC: 4-2
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/the-climate-activists-taking-down-book-festivals-while-jetting-off-on-long-haul-flights/ar-BB1p0c45?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=fc10a51555f248829a3f526475b8f87a&ei=15
Your guy is done.
What you need is (God help me) a Sunak-style debater combined with a Clinton-style operator.
Someone who will skewer Trump's madness but isn't also seen as mad.
Boris! is available but unlikely. Michelle Obama Doesn't Want The Job and Isn't A Politician. Harris, Whitmer, Newsome - meh
If they were brave they would go with Buttigeg who will utterly skewer Trump and all he stands for. A chunk of America won't vote for him because of everything he is. Same was true of Obama, and yet Obama won. Twice.
Who else is there? Other than Boris of course.
Will the Democrats manage to replace Biden? Is Newsom the best they can do? They lost in 2016 with a New York Democrat, do they want to lose in 2024 with a Californian?
How our Nige took on the racist skinheads and won
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/how-farage-took-on-the-skinheads-and-geezers-of-the-far-right-and-won/ar-BB1p19q1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=fc10a51555f248829a3f526475b8f87a&ei=10
As it happens I also think that Biden has other related issues too but that doesn’t mean his stammer is still not a problem.
But if I'm wrong, you are very, very right and we are totally screwed.
Of course having applied and not received a postal ballot, the voter simply can't rock up to the polling station and vote.
More voter suppressing Machiavellian genius from Rishi?
If they can monetise it and steal it, they will do
The week’s revelations about betting on the election date dominated recent recollections among our participants, all of whom voted Tory in 2019:
“It’s a metaphor for the whole Conservative period in government. If they can monetise it and steal it, they will do, and they did. And this time they got caught;” “They look after each other, give money to their mates, give tips to their mates;”
“Serious lack of judgment. They weren’t even intelligent enough to get someone else to do it for them.”
Most did not think Rishi Sunak was implicated in this particular scandal (“I’d like to think he’s not, but you just don’t know. You can’t trust them;”), but this was beside the point: “They should be there doing a job and we should trust what they’re doing.
But it seems like on every occasion, they’re breaking the law and getting away with it;” “He gave his wife £100,000 in furlough and she didn’t pay taxes and he went along with that;” “It’s like the parties during covid when we were told not to do something, and the politicians didn’t take a blind bit of notice and did things we couldn’t do. It seems to be an ongoing thing from that;”
“You’ve had someone in the Labour party gambling now as well and Starmer got rid of him straight away. So he responded very much quicker than Rishi did.”
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2024/06/its-a-metaphor-for-the-whole-conservative-government-my-focus-groups-in-newquay-plymouth-and-ne-somerset/
So not that bumbling fat oaf for POTUS and on a technicality. Besides which he's shilling for Trump.
And that's assuming the parents have put in a postal vote application.
Disproportionately affects the generation with school age children, disproportionately does not affect the oldies who go on hols at cheaper times. A feature not a bug for Mr Sunak.
"But the climate influencer might want to have a look at her own carbon footprint. She has already flown twice to the Caribbean this year, a 9,000-mile round trip. First in January to see relatives in Jamaica, where she was born before moving to the UK as a toddler, and then in March to join 120 activists for a “climate justice camp” on the exotic island of Saint Martin.
This is despite declaring in 2019 she would go “flight-free”.
Addressing the “Elephant in the Room” on Instagram following her recent trips abroad, Loach told her followers she felt she didn’t have “to justify my whole life to everyone”, claiming criticism of her apparent U-Turn was simply a “distraction tactic” used by major corporations."
Postal votes are not going to be practical soon. Simply too unreliable soon.
George the third managed for a while but times have changed. Trump may well be barmy,and anyone with half a brain should be able to beat him. Can I suggest an attractive female without the baggage of Hilary Clinton?
My wife's arrived on Tuesday and she was going to post it the same day. I advised she used pen, not pencil, and I drove it round to the council offices myself. But with the sort of thing you point out in Vale of Glamorgan it appears that the Conservatives will win whatever happens.
Within an hour someone had called on a tactical nuclear device to be let off thede (which seemed to be going a little bit far) and @rcs1000 rushed to reassure anxious readers that the PB servers are not in the area.
Anyway, the festival organisers have convened and decided in the true spirit of self regulation to ban the England football from being shown on the big screens and they will have to listen to some ghastly band wailing while they poison the local eels with their drug riddled effluent instead.
https://x.com/dailystar/status/1806280970774929534?t=DrxYUCv9XXeQC1hYKszBpw&s=09.
Thoughts and prayers with the eels of Glastonbury.
It should never have been allowed to get to a point where the clip of Trump saying “I didn’t understand what he was saying at the end there, and I don’t think he did either” sounded like the comment of a cool, sensible customer.
And the whole “I got my handicap as vice president” golf bollocks was the pits.
Very sad for Biden, sad for the US and the world.
Anger as thousands leave for their holidays before forms turn up after ‘delivery difficulties’
About 25 per cent of the Scottish electorate now vote through the post but voters in several areas, including Ayrshire, South Lanarkshire, Perthshire, Fife and the Western Isles, said they were still without their papers.
The Electoral Management Board for Scotland (EMB) has admitted there have been “many difficulties experienced with the delivery of postal votes” across the country.
The EMB, made up of returning officers and electoral registration officers, said there was now a need for a major review of capacity and systems.
Royal Mail said it had investigated concerns over the delivery of postal votes in some areas but had found no issues.
Blair McDougall, a Labour candidate, said: “In a seat in East Renfrewshire which is highly marginal and projections suggest could be won by a handful of votes, it is deeply frustrating to find yourself talking to people who say they will vote for you but cannot because they haven’t received their postal vote. We need the postal service to step up to the plate because this is not people’s fault.”
Some voters said that although they had applied for a postal vote before the cut-off date of June 19, the ballot papers had not arrived before they went on holiday.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scottish-voters-postal-votes-general-election-3f395n6r3
Has Liz Trust got a US passport?
What were his parents thinking?
If Biden can be persuaded to be the bigger man (which he is on all measures to Trump) and do the right thing by his party, his country and the world, that might work. He still has a chance to leave a noble legacy with a final act.
24-25% and the Tories get 155 even 200 seats
19% and 50 seats would be lucky
It’s a problem of industrial waste disposal. It should be treated as such.
But anyone with eyes can see that Biden exhibits bizarre, rambling, incoherent and sometimes meaningless speech patterns which go way beyond “a stammer”. Again this has been self evident for a couple of years but people have bluntly refused to believe it. Later on I will spend several weeks relentlessly digging up their remarks and putting them on here for month after month so they can be publicly humiliated but I won’t do any more than that because I’m not the vindictive, triumphalist type. It’s just not me. There’s no way I’ll spend more than three months sadistically laughing at these hapless twats that I am about to name
In 2024, what is ironic about Biden’s cognitive deficiencies - is that Trump himself does not appear as formidable as in 2016 or 2020.
Barack Obama vs Trump last night, would have absolutely annihilated him.
But I think many other potential Dem candidates also would. This may not have been the case in 2020.
The complicating factor is that passing over Harris for anyone else might alienate large segments of the black and/or women vote. Even if Harris doesn’t seem the best candidate, it seems like she would have more of a fighting chance than Biden at this point.
And a trillion quid of assets has gone the same way over the last few decades.
Whether Biden actually has early stage dementia or not is besides the point (I very much doubt he does, he's just getting old), the perception is everything. He cannot now win. He needs replacing. The plus side for the Democrats - and the rest of us - is that Trump is that Trump has spent the last few years preparing to take on Biden specifically. At his age, he would struggle to adapt to a new opponent.
Also notable in our groups another criticism has emerged that Farage led the Brexit charge & then disappeared from the stage. Somewhat unfair given he wasn’t in Government & did come back to lead the Brexit Party- but still a perception he left others to do the work of Brexiting
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1806586415452418494
Doing so gives you:
Lab 335
LD 21
Con 11
SNP 5
PC 2
Green 0
Ref 0
Yeah, the vote share is a key factor. Going in to the election i think they believed they could get away with a 30%/200 seat strategy, but with Reform and endless ineptitude thats really now a 25%/160 seat thing. 25% seems reasonable if Reform underperform and at that level they would certainly be in triple figures and official opposition. Its increasingly perilous every 1% they drop under
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
The fairly extensive cover of the RefUK bigotgate is interesting. The one point they seem to be missing is that they are not challenging Farage's "few bad apples" excuses.
The people in the 10 minute C4 video are a canvasser who has known Farage for years, and core people from the national campaign - long term associated of Farage - who have been brought in to Clacton.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmkMpYbOoO0
NY Times
I am aware that the science is entirely contrary to my expectations, but I don't believe the polling and the MRP figures are absurd. Take North Herefordshire as an example.
Both parties are going to be within 50 seats either way of 300. I will be more than relieved if I am wrong and Labour are 350 and Tories 250. But haven't we seen evidence on here of Conservative waverers like BigG coming home just in time for Thursday?
I think Harris would have a better chance than Biden, who appears to have no chance right now.
I'd say it's odds on that Biden will (perhaps with some heavy persuasion being necessary) step down before the Democratic convention.
So they've got a month and a half.
On Radio 5 this morning they spoke to a Professor of American politics, an American, and his first comment said dead straight was "pray for America". He's not wrong. Divine intervention is what is needed now to save America and the World from calamity.
I'd vote for a comatose Biden over Trump. But I don't think swing state voters would.
And that's before worrying about the interference state houses reps have essentially promised this time.
Brace as Leon would say.
Indeed the debate was so bad they could compile three or four entirely different ads making the same cruel but necessary point. Also watch the scenes of Biden being led away from the podium by his wife. He is a very frail and senile old man. It is utterly wrong in a basic way that this is being allowed to happen and all those that facilitate it in the USA should be ashamed
However the Dems now have one last chance to put this right
https://x.com/endwokeness/status/1806557731244986521?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
I’ve seen some people suggest Whitmer-Warnock as a potential compromise balanced ticket. But I still don’t think that assuages the above.
And how do you sell the message “The last 4 years have been a success…and now we are ditching both the President and VP” ? You can do it for age reasons if it was just Biden - but it looks a hard sell where Harris is concerned.
Not a good look.
It's not procedurally too late, but it is practically.
What, the Dems are going to admit either they made a mistake, that Biden has had a sudden deterioration, or Trump beat Biden so they realised he could not last 4 years even if he's fine now?
What does that do for the prospects of Harris, Buttering, or whoever?
Not the first thing to spring to mind when naming one's child.
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
@DPJHodges
Key thing about the Biden car-crash. Trump won’t run against him. He’ll run against Harris. And say -correctly - if Biden wins she will become President by default.
@DPJHodges
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3m
Key thing about the Biden car-crash. Trump won’t run against him. He’ll run against Harris. And say -correctly - if Biden wins she will become President by default.
Trump is also in mental decline - but crucially
1. It’s nowhere near as bad as Biden
2. He looks physically a lot better - ten years younger than Biden
3. He’s still funny - that counts for a lot
4. He’s always rambled so it disguises the decline
But I have not been able to bring myself to listen to the approx. 1 hour of that.