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The betting chart that tells you last night’s debate was a disaster for Biden – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Key thing about the Biden car-crash. Trump won’t run against him..

    No, he'll run against whomever the nominee will now be, and that's unlikely to be Biden.

    Dan is a bit slow.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 508

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    There is a problem brewing with postal votes (possibly only in Scotland). Lots of anecdotal evidence of them not arriving in time before people go on holiday.

    My son's postal vote in the Vale of Glamorgan hasn't arrived. He was told they were being posted on Monday, still nothing yesterday.

    Of course having applied and not received a postal ballot, the voter simply can't rock up to the polling station and vote.

    More voter suppressing Machiavellian genius from Rishi?
    Post has been increasingly erratic for the last few years.

    Postal votes are not going to be practical soon. Simply too unreliable soon.
    Good thing we are handing the Royal Mail over to a Czech. That's our democracy safe for the couple of decades while we transition to an electronic system on Fujitsu software.
    We're not handing it over, we're selling it to give the money for a few more foreign holidays.

    And a trillion quid of assets has gone the same way over the last few decades.
    My understanding is that he's buying it using debt he'll put on Royal Mail and only wants the European parcel business, which is profitable. So he'll carve that off and leave UK with a massively indebted, loss making Royal Mail.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    Stereodog said:

    On Leon’s mockery of people who point out that Biden has a stammer I feel I should point out that I have a stammer which is worsened by stress and (unusually) alcohol. At my worst I would be less coherent than Biden was last night. The worst thing is that because you desperately try to substitute any word you can actually get out it makes you sound stupid. I’m youngish so people don’t attribute it to senility but I could see how they could if I were older.

    As it happens I also think that Biden has other related issues too but that doesn’t mean his stammer is still not a problem.

    Biden has always stumbled over his words, but he was quick witted, had a turn of phrase, some spark, and could land a verbal punch. That's gone now, and has been for years. He's an old man. A good man, probably just about competent enough to do the job now, and infinitely preferable to Trump for any thinking person, but it's too big a risk to have him as the candidate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    Jamei said:

    Eabhal said:

    There is a problem brewing with postal votes (possibly only in Scotland). Lots of anecdotal evidence of them not arriving in time before people go on holiday.

    Quite a few people I know - me included - still haven't received their polling cards. It's not s big a deal but it does suggest a very widespread problem.

    Surely people affected can apply for a proxy vote instead?
    Not if a PV has been sent out. You can go back to the Town Hall and apply for a replacement vote, but it will be on a different coloured paper and not actually included in the count.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    Jeez have you really got nothing else going on in your life? It's almost a shame nobody's got the time or will to wade through the floods of runny poo you have been posting on here for years to repost the most idiotic and obnoxious, though it would fill up the comments for many pages.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited June 28
    Dopermean said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Also unlike last time there is a team behind with a plan to destroy their constitutional checks and balances, it will be far worse than last time and it is generally underestimated how much damage he did last time, the US Judicial system now has decades of right wing bias built in, not just the SCOTUS.
    Yes, even since January 6th there's been a lot of complacency because in the end the system held.

    But this time the GOP are going in prepared to deny election results, with officials elected on the basis they would have rejected a Biden win last time. Not all of them, but the majority.

    That Trump may win legitimately is unfortunate, but unlike 2016 when people didn't know for certain what he might be like as President, we know now.

    There's a reason most of his former Cabinet say he's unfit.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    Eabhal said:

    There is a problem brewing with postal votes (possibly only in Scotland). Lots of anecdotal evidence of them not arriving in time before people go on holiday.

    Scottish voters miss out on general election as postal ballots arrive late
    Anger as thousands leave for their holidays before forms turn up after ‘delivery difficulties’


    About 25 per cent of the Scottish electorate now vote through the post but voters in several areas, including Ayrshire, South Lanarkshire, Perthshire, Fife and the Western Isles, said they were still without their papers.

    The Electoral Management Board for Scotland (EMB) has admitted there have been “many difficulties experienced with the delivery of postal votes” across the country.

    The EMB, made up of returning officers and electoral registration officers, said there was now a need for a major review of capacity and systems.

    Royal Mail said it had investigated concerns over the delivery of postal votes in some areas but had found no issues.

    Blair McDougall, a Labour candidate, said: “In a seat in East Renfrewshire which is highly marginal and projections suggest could be won by a handful of votes, it is deeply frustrating to find yourself talking to people who say they will vote for you but cannot because they haven’t received their postal vote. We need the postal service to step up to the plate because this is not people’s fault.”

    Some voters said that although they had applied for a postal vote before the cut-off date of June 19, the ballot papers had not arrived before they went on holiday.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scottish-voters-postal-votes-general-election-3f395n6r3
    You know you are getting old when you see that Labour spox have been named after Blair.

    What were his parents thinking?
    Met a girl called Trinity the other day, she explained it was after a character in an old film.
    Was it "Jesus Christ Superstar"?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,788
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: sprint bullshit this weekend, alas.

    Mr. T, I remember the farce a few years ago of ITV News reporting a footballer had said something terrible (racist, I think). There was no mention, even in a not-explicit-but-enough-to-guess, of what it was.

    So viewers had no idea if this was a full on 1930s Germany type situation, or using a term plenty of people use and which isn't great but isn't the worst. There's got to be clarity.

    On-topic: sad to hear about this, but Biden should step down.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    edited June 28
    Former Senator Claire McCaskill:

    “Joe Biden had one thing he had to do tonight, and he didn’t do didn't do it...He had one thing he had to accomplish, and that was reassure America that he was up to the job at his age, and he failed at that tonight.”


    Biden wanted an early debate to show america he was up to the job.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    kle4 said:

    Heathener said:

    Neat summary of all the constituency prediction polls:

    https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/

    That is absolutely brilliant. Thank you so much for spotting it and linking. Well worth looking at folks.

    They have also put an aggregated Tactical Voting recommendation to it: https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/tactical-voting/
    Quite some ranges in the predictions:

    Lab: 516-407
    Con: 155-53
    LibD: 71-38
    SNP: 37-9
    Grn: 4-0
    PC: 4-2
    Necessary though - with the Tories at or past a tipping point dozens of seats could change hands on very little vote share difference, there could be lots of very small majorities.
    Another interesting feature of that aggregator is that you can filter on the seats that all the aggregators agree on for each party - the 'nailed-on' seats maybe.

    Doing so gives you:
    Lab 335
    LD 21
    Con 11
    SNP 5
    PC 2
    Green 0
    Ref 0
    That list of 'certain' seats is eye opening. especially the 335 v 11. I'm beginning to think Labour might just sneak home.

    On another matter, under election rules/laws is there a date by which postal vote forms have to be posted out to the voter? At a glance I can't find one.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    No, it's not too late to change.
    I'd say it's odds on that Biden will (perhaps with some heavy persuasion being necessary) step down before the Democratic convention.

    So they've got a month and a half.
    And that destroys the campaign and immediately hands the election to Trump.

    It's not procedurally too late, but it is practically.

    What, the Dems are going to admit either they made a mistake, that Biden has had a sudden deterioration, or Trump beat Biden so they realised he could not last 4 years even if he's fine now?

    What does that do for the prospects of Harris, Buttering, or whoever?
    They haven't yet officially nominated Biden.

    No one of any significance ran against him - so what's the mistake to admit to ?
    Hs administration continues to be effective; all they would be "admitting" is that he can't serve a second term.

    Your argument fails on its own merits. How can it be "too late to change from Biden" if you're so certain he'll lose ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    ((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    5m
    To be honest, I don’t think it matters now though. Looking at the response from within the Democratic Party, it seems pretty clear Biden is not going to be the candidate. Which is absolutely incredible.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    edited June 28
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.

    I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.

    Spotting that they are both terrible, elderly candidates is the EASY bit. The challenge is working out whether either of the US parties was ever going to do anything about it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    glw said:

    Stereodog said:

    On Leon’s mockery of people who point out that Biden has a stammer I feel I should point out that I have a stammer which is worsened by stress and (unusually) alcohol. At my worst I would be less coherent than Biden was last night. The worst thing is that because you desperately try to substitute any word you can actually get out it makes you sound stupid. I’m youngish so people don’t attribute it to senility but I could see how they could if I were older.

    As it happens I also think that Biden has other related issues too but that doesn’t mean his stammer is still not a problem.

    Biden has always stumbled over his words, but he was quick witted, had a turn of phrase, some spark, and could land a verbal punch. That's gone now, and has been for years. He's an old man. A good man, probably just about competent enough to do the job now, and infinitely preferable to Trump for any thinking person, but it's too big a risk to have him as the candidate.
    The thing most people are bad at when assessing risk is properly understanding the risk of the alternative.

    So if Biden goes, it seems fairly inevitable that it will either be a divided party:

    led by Kamala Harris with a large part of the party thinking why her she is not up to it and electorally unpopular
    led by someone other than Kamala Harris with a large part of the party, and electorare, thinking they have passed her by as she is a woman of colour, as they say over there

    Both are risky as well, it is not obvious which is the least risky. So the easiest path remains the most likely imo.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,597
    Dopermean said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    There is a problem brewing with postal votes (possibly only in Scotland). Lots of anecdotal evidence of them not arriving in time before people go on holiday.

    My son's postal vote in the Vale of Glamorgan hasn't arrived. He was told they were being posted on Monday, still nothing yesterday.

    Of course having applied and not received a postal ballot, the voter simply can't rock up to the polling station and vote.

    More voter suppressing Machiavellian genius from Rishi?
    Post has been increasingly erratic for the last few years.

    Postal votes are not going to be practical soon. Simply too unreliable soon.
    Good thing we are handing the Royal Mail over to a Czech. That's our democracy safe for the couple of decades while we transition to an electronic system on Fujitsu software.
    We're not handing it over, we're selling it to give the money for a few more foreign holidays.

    And a trillion quid of assets has gone the same way over the last few decades.
    My understanding is that he's buying it using debt he'll put on Royal Mail and only wants the European parcel business, which is profitable. So he'll carve that off and leave UK with a massively indebted, loss making Royal Mail.
    Wouldn't surprise me.

    If Starmer and Reeves want to do something useful in government then they need to put restrictions on debt financed private equity like that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    Dopermean said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    There is a problem brewing with postal votes (possibly only in Scotland). Lots of anecdotal evidence of them not arriving in time before people go on holiday.

    My son's postal vote in the Vale of Glamorgan hasn't arrived. He was told they were being posted on Monday, still nothing yesterday.

    Of course having applied and not received a postal ballot, the voter simply can't rock up to the polling station and vote.

    More voter suppressing Machiavellian genius from Rishi?
    Post has been increasingly erratic for the last few years.

    Postal votes are not going to be practical soon. Simply too unreliable soon.
    Good thing we are handing the Royal Mail over to a Czech. That's our democracy safe for the couple of decades while we transition to an electronic system on Fujitsu software.
    We're not handing it over, we're selling it to give the money for a few more foreign holidays.

    And a trillion quid of assets has gone the same way over the last few decades.
    My understanding is that he's buying it using debt he'll put on Royal Mail and only wants the European parcel business, which is profitable. So he'll carve that off and leave UK with a massively indebted, loss making Royal Mail.
    Wouldn't surprise me.

    If Starmer and Reeves want to do something useful in government then they need to put restrictions on debt financed private equity like that.
    Royal Mail is going to be one of Labour's very first big calls to make this summer.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Nigelb said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Key thing about the Biden car-crash. Trump won’t run against him..

    No, he'll run against whomever the nominee will now be, and that's unlikely to be Biden.

    Dan is a bit slow.
    To be fair, you were telling me not to lay Biden a couple of weeks ago.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...
    eek said:

    Eabhal said:

    There is a problem brewing with postal votes (possibly only in Scotland). Lots of anecdotal evidence of them not arriving in time before people go on holiday.

    Scottish voters miss out on general election as postal ballots arrive late
    Anger as thousands leave for their holidays before forms turn up after ‘delivery difficulties’


    About 25 per cent of the Scottish electorate now vote through the post but voters in several areas, including Ayrshire, South Lanarkshire, Perthshire, Fife and the Western Isles, said they were still without their papers.

    The Electoral Management Board for Scotland (EMB) has admitted there have been “many difficulties experienced with the delivery of postal votes” across the country.

    The EMB, made up of returning officers and electoral registration officers, said there was now a need for a major review of capacity and systems.

    Royal Mail said it had investigated concerns over the delivery of postal votes in some areas but had found no issues.

    Blair McDougall, a Labour candidate, said: “In a seat in East Renfrewshire which is highly marginal and projections suggest could be won by a handful of votes, it is deeply frustrating to find yourself talking to people who say they will vote for you but cannot because they haven’t received their postal vote. We need the postal service to step up to the plate because this is not people’s fault.”

    Some voters said that although they had applied for a postal vote before the cut-off date of June 19, the ballot papers had not arrived before they went on holiday.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scottish-voters-postal-votes-general-election-3f395n6r3
    You know you are getting old when you see that Labour spox have been named after Blair.

    What were his parents thinking?
    Met a girl called Trinity the other day, she explained it was after a character in an old film.
    "They call me Trinity" and "Trinity rides again" I think. Wasn't it starring Spaghetti Westerner Terrence Hill.

    Not the first thing to spring to mind when naming one's child.
    ‘Twas The matrix
    Makes more sense.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    Jeez have you really got nothing else going on in your life? It's almost a shame nobody's got the time or will to wade through the floods of runny poo you have been posting on here for years to repost the most idiotic and obnoxious, though it would fill up the comments for many pages.
    Yep. You were one of the “Biden is fine, presidents always poop themselves at NATO meetings” people. I’m preparing a spreadsheet of the most insane remarks
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.

    I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
    Only one way Trump gets replaced now.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    Roger said:

    Seems like Biden has blown it. Not unpredictable. I must say if Trump now wins thank goodness Starmer and not Sunak will be in charge. Despite his appearance of pusillanimity underneath we know him to be a committed European and if ever we'll have needed to be part of a united Europe this is the time

    Yes - and for the sake of Ukraine and peace in Europe if nothing else.

    Trump is not an ally of Europe. He's not a friend of anyone but his own self interest, and doesn't do deals via mutually beneficial relationships. Forget trade deals, I wouldn't be surprised if there is a trade war.

    Starmer should do nothing to antagonise Trump, but equally should know where our more reliable allies are for his first term if Trump is president.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited June 28
    Biden supporters should ask themselves why all their attacks on Trump over the last 10 years haven't worked, (mostly).
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,653

    Eabhal said:

    There is a problem brewing with postal votes (possibly only in Scotland). Lots of anecdotal evidence of them not arriving in time before people go on holiday.

    Scottish voters miss out on general election as postal ballots arrive late
    Anger as thousands leave for their holidays before forms turn up after ‘delivery difficulties’


    About 25 per cent of the Scottish electorate now vote through the post but voters in several areas, including Ayrshire, South Lanarkshire, Perthshire, Fife and the Western Isles, said they were still without their papers.

    The Electoral Management Board for Scotland (EMB) has admitted there have been “many difficulties experienced with the delivery of postal votes” across the country.

    The EMB, made up of returning officers and electoral registration officers, said there was now a need for a major review of capacity and systems.

    Royal Mail said it had investigated concerns over the delivery of postal votes in some areas but had found no issues.

    Blair McDougall, a Labour candidate, said: “In a seat in East Renfrewshire which is highly marginal and projections suggest could be won by a handful of votes, it is deeply frustrating to find yourself talking to people who say they will vote for you but cannot because they haven’t received their postal vote. We need the postal service to step up to the plate because this is not people’s fault.”

    Some voters said that although they had applied for a postal vote before the cut-off date of June 19, the ballot papers had not arrived before they went on holiday.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scottish-voters-postal-votes-general-election-3f395n6r3
    I got in touch with my council regarding an emergency proxy vote as my postal ballot did not arrive in time. No luck - missed the deadline for a switch in method and my circumstance is not an emergency.

    I was a fool for not going for proxy in the first place. But I value the secrecy of my vote, so I'd rather a postal. First election I will not have voted in. :(

    I think there should be much clearer guidelines around postal votes. What a mess.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580

    Michelle Obama vs Donald Trump is down to 2 on BF.

    Well you can get 18.5 on just Michelle being the nominee so I hope no one took that 2!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    On Leon’s mockery of people who point out that Biden has a stammer I feel I should point out that I have a stammer which is worsened by stress and (unusually) alcohol. At my worst I would be less coherent than Biden was last night. The worst thing is that because you desperately try to substitute any word you can actually get out it makes you sound stupid. I’m youngish so people don’t attribute it to senility but I could see how they could if I were older.

    As it happens I also think that Biden has other related issues too but that doesn’t mean his stammer is still not a problem.

    I have a very good friend with a very bad stammer and I know how cruel and difficult it can be. I also know what it looks like. You have my sincere sympathies

    But anyone with eyes can see that Biden exhibits bizarre, rambling, incoherent and sometimes meaningless speech patterns which go way beyond “a stammer”. Again this has been self evident for a couple of years but people have bluntly refused to believe it. Later on I will spend several weeks relentlessly digging up their remarks and putting them on here for month after month so they can be publicly humiliated but I won’t do any more than that because I’m not the vindictive, triumphalist type. It’s just not me. There’s no way I’ll spend more than three months sadistically laughing at these hapless twats that I am about to name
    Beautiful company, beautiful, guy’s been doing it for 50 years, sells hundreds of boats, they use Mercury engines, they want to take that out, they want to make it all-electric, I asked, “How is it?” He said, ‘It’s a problem, sir, they want us to make all electric boats, the problem is, the boat is so heavy, it can’t float.’ I said, ‘that sounds like a problem.’ He said, ‘also it can’t go fast because of the weight, and they want to now have a 50 mile or 70 mile radius, you have to go out 70 miles before you can really start the boat up, and you go out at two knots, that’s essentially almost like two miles an hour.’ I said, ‘How long does it take you to get out there?’ He said, ‘many hours, and then you’re allowed to go around for ten minutes, and then you have to come back, because the battery only lasts a very short period of time.’ So I said, ‘let me ask you a question,’ and he said, 'nobody has ever asked this question,’ and it must because of MIT, my relationship to MIT. ‘Very smart,’ he goes. I say, ‘What would happen if the boat sank from its weight, and you’re in the boat, and you have this tremendously powerful battery, and the battery’s now under water, and there’s a shark that’s approximately 10 yards over there — by the way, a lot of shark attacks lately, do you notice that? Lotta shark attacks — I watched some guys justifying it today, ‘well they weren’t really that angry, they bit off the young lady’s leg because of the fact that they were, they were … not hungry but they misunderstood who she was.’ These people are crazy.’ He said, ‘there’s no problem with sharks, they just didn’t really understand a young woman swimming,’ No, really got decimated and other people too, a lot of shark attacks, so I said, ‘there’s a shark 10 yards away from the boat, 10 yards, or here. Do I get electrocuted if the boat is sinking, water goes over the battery, the boat is sinking? Do I stay on top of the boat and get electrocuted or do I jump over by the shark and not get electrocuted?’ Because I will tell you, he didn’t know the answer, he said, ‘you know, nobody’s ever asked me that question.’ I said, ‘I think it’s a good question. I think there’s a lot of electric current coming through that water.’ But you know what I’d do if there was a shark or you get electrocuted? I’ll take electrocution every single time. I’m not getting near the shark. So we’re going to end that, we’re going to end it for boats, we’re going to end it for trucks.
    lol. Fair

    Trump is also in mental decline - but crucially

    1. It’s nowhere near as bad as Biden
    2. He looks physically a lot better - ten years younger than Biden
    3. He’s still funny - that counts for a lot
    4. He’s always rambled so it disguises the decline
    Uh oh!

    https://youtu.be/o_KsI_wkKgI?si=UW-jQ0P403_0qyeH

    Now if you want senile, the inability to control one's bowels due to age must be up there with forgetfulness.

    Uh oh!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.

    I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
    That sounds sensible

    I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman

    Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Who fairly uniquely among recent US precedents, didn't start or wade into any wars.
    He came bloody close assassinating Soleimani in Baghdad. In fact he even backed down, probably because of the JCS, and didn't retalliate after the Iranian ballistic missle strike injured American serviceman, something Trump said would be met with "hellfire" or something similarly over-the-top.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    Jeez have you really got nothing else going on in your life? It's almost a shame nobody's got the time or will to wade through the floods of runny poo you have been posting on here for years to repost the most idiotic and obnoxious, though it would fill up the comments for many pages.
    Yep. You were one of the “Biden is fine, presidents always poop themselves at NATO meetings” people. I’m preparing a spreadsheet of the most insane remarks
    Ha, I knew if I provoked you you would waste time searching for some killer quote from me. Hopefully it will keep you quiet a bit longer.

    But as I am going away for the weekend please give me my quote now because I can't remember it, and I don't want to miss it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    Jeez have you really got nothing else going on in your life? It's almost a shame nobody's got the time or will to wade through the floods of runny poo you have been posting on here for years to repost the most idiotic and obnoxious, though it would fill up the comments for many pages.
    He should NEVER be allowed to forget his reaction to Putin's 2021 speech, which essentially paved the way for the horrors that have followed:
    Leon said:



    He is right. He is absolutely right

    Read it all. This is the best, smartest, most wisely wide-ranging speech I have heard from any global political leader in a decade. And this is PUTIN

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Andy_JS said:

    Biden supporters should ask themselves why all their attacks on Trump over the last 10 years haven't worked, (mostly).

    So you too believe 2020 was a steal?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    Jeez have you really got nothing else going on in your life? It's almost a shame nobody's got the time or will to wade through the floods of runny poo you have been posting on here for years to repost the most idiotic and obnoxious, though it would fill up the comments for many pages.
    Yep. You were one of the “Biden is fine, presidents always poop themselves at NATO meetings” people. I’m preparing a spreadsheet of the most insane remarks
    Is Brittany really that boring?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    Jeez have you really got nothing else going on in your life? It's almost a shame nobody's got the time or will to wade through the floods of runny poo you have been posting on here for years to repost the most idiotic and obnoxious, though it would fill up the comments for many pages.
    Yep. You were one of the “Biden is fine, presidents always poop themselves at NATO meetings” people. I’m preparing a spreadsheet of the most insane remarks
    Ha, I knew if I provoked you you would waste time searching for some killer quote from me. Hopefully it will keep you quiet a bit longer.

    But as I am going away for the weekend please give me my quote now because I can't remember it, and I don't want to miss it.
    Dude there are dozens - just from you. Its going to
    take weeks to repost them all from everyone but luckily I’m brutally cruel and I love gloating when I’m right so I’m prepared to put in the hard yards. Don’t worry you won’t miss anything - there will be plenty more when you return, for several weeks
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.

    I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
    That sounds sensible

    I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman

    Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
    Yep she’s a woman of color - and that will cost the Dems some votes in what may seem weird places - such as Latino votes
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    There is a problem brewing with postal votes (possibly only in Scotland). Lots of anecdotal evidence of them not arriving in time before people go on holiday.

    Scottish voters miss out on general election as postal ballots arrive late
    Anger as thousands leave for their holidays before forms turn up after ‘delivery difficulties’


    About 25 per cent of the Scottish electorate now vote through the post but voters in several areas, including Ayrshire, South Lanarkshire, Perthshire, Fife and the Western Isles, said they were still without their papers.

    The Electoral Management Board for Scotland (EMB) has admitted there have been “many difficulties experienced with the delivery of postal votes” across the country.

    The EMB, made up of returning officers and electoral registration officers, said there was now a need for a major review of capacity and systems.

    Royal Mail said it had investigated concerns over the delivery of postal votes in some areas but had found no issues.

    Blair McDougall, a Labour candidate, said: “In a seat in East Renfrewshire which is highly marginal and projections suggest could be won by a handful of votes, it is deeply frustrating to find yourself talking to people who say they will vote for you but cannot because they haven’t received their postal vote. We need the postal service to step up to the plate because this is not people’s fault.”

    Some voters said that although they had applied for a postal vote before the cut-off date of June 19, the ballot papers had not arrived before they went on holiday.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scottish-voters-postal-votes-general-election-3f395n6r3
    I got in touch with my council regarding an emergency proxy vote as my postal ballot did not arrive in time. No luck - missed the deadline for a switch in method and my circumstance is not an emergency.

    I was a fool for not going for proxy in the first place. But I value the secrecy of my vote, so I'd rather a postal. First election I will not have voted in. :(

    I think there should be much clearer guidelines around postal votes. What a mess.
    SFAICS there isn't any method of running an election, except by having a statutory fixed date (whatever happened to that?), which can make it certain that a random group of people won't be deprived of their vote by personal individual circumstances; both emergencies and prearranged stuff happens.

    It would still help of course if post got delivered.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Andy_JS said:

    Biden supporters should ask themselves why all their attacks on Trump over the last 10 years haven't worked, (mostly).

    So you too believe 2020 was a steal?
    No, I'm talking about him winning in 2016 and possibly winning this year. Neither of those should ever have got anywhere close to happening, but instead of dealing with the underlying reasons why so many voters were turning to Trump, the response was for Democrats to insult those voters and virtue signal amongst themselves.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.

    I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
    That sounds sensible

    I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman

    Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?

    She won't win any of the swing states.

  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    Leon said:

    That sounds sensible

    I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman

    Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?

    She's a bit Starmer, bland and boring, probably safe enough, but there's little real enthusiasm for her. Maybe if she was the candidate that would change, but she's really not capitalised on being Vice President, compared to other VPs who boosted their profile like Gore or Biden himself.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    IanB2 said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    Jeez have you really got nothing else going on in your life? It's almost a shame nobody's got the time or will to wade through the floods of runny poo you have been posting on here for years to repost the most idiotic and obnoxious, though it would fill up the comments for many pages.
    He should NEVER be allowed to forget his reaction to Putin's 2021 speech, which essentially paved the way for the horrors that have followed:
    Leon said:



    He is right. He is absolutely right

    Read it all. This is the best, smartest, most wisely wide-ranging speech I have heard from any global political leader in a decade. And this is PUTIN

    He was absolutely right. It was about Wokeness and he nailed it. Unfortunately - as I say - it came from Vladimir Putin
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited June 28
    It shows deep cruelty that they allowed him to stand again in the first place.

    But his unelected handlers who are running the show behind the scenes will be out of a job if a Democrat candidate who has their marbles was allowed to replace Biden.

    Thats what this is all about.

    A bit like if Andrew McIntosh had gone senile in 1980 so after winning the 1980 GLC election was kept in place by Leninspart and his cabal who actually did his job behind the scenes unseen by most.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Trump's gonna whup Biden in November, and yes it will be Biden he's whupping :D
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    Jeez have you really got nothing else going on in your life? It's almost a shame nobody's got the time or will to wade through the floods of runny poo you have been posting on here for years to repost the most idiotic and obnoxious, though it would fill up the comments for many pages.
    Yep. You were one of the “Biden is fine, presidents always poop themselves at NATO meetings” people. I’m preparing a spreadsheet of the most insane remarks
    Ha, I knew if I provoked you you would waste time searching for some killer quote from me. Hopefully it will keep you quiet a bit longer.

    But as I am going away for the weekend please give me my quote now because I can't remember it, and I don't want to miss it.
    Dude there are dozens - just from you. Its going to
    take weeks to repost them all from everyone but luckily I’m brutally cruel and I love gloating when I’m right so I’m prepared to put in the hard yards. Don’t worry you won’t miss anything - there will be plenty more when you return, for several weeks
    So you didn't find a single one?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,150
    Dopermean said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    There is a problem brewing with postal votes (possibly only in Scotland). Lots of anecdotal evidence of them not arriving in time before people go on holiday.

    My son's postal vote in the Vale of Glamorgan hasn't arrived. He was told they were being posted on Monday, still nothing yesterday.

    Of course having applied and not received a postal ballot, the voter simply can't rock up to the polling station and vote.

    More voter suppressing Machiavellian genius from Rishi?
    Post has been increasingly erratic for the last few years.

    Postal votes are not going to be practical soon. Simply too unreliable soon.
    Good thing we are handing the Royal Mail over to a Czech. That's our democracy safe for the couple of decades while we transition to an electronic system on Fujitsu software.
    We're not handing it over, we're selling it to give the money for a few more foreign holidays.

    And a trillion quid of assets has gone the same way over the last few decades.
    My understanding is that he's buying it using debt he'll put on Royal Mail and only wants the European parcel business, which is profitable. So he'll carve that off and leave UK with a massively indebted, loss making Royal Mail.
    He'll also want the property portfolio, a la Morrison's aiui.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    Jeez have you really got nothing else going on in your life? It's almost a shame nobody's got the time or will to wade through the floods of runny poo you have been posting on here for years to repost the most idiotic and obnoxious, though it would fill up the comments for many pages.
    Yep. You were one of the “Biden is fine, presidents always poop themselves at NATO meetings” people. I’m preparing a spreadsheet of the most insane remarks
    Ha, I knew if I provoked you you would waste time searching for some killer quote from me. Hopefully it will keep you quiet a bit longer.

    But as I am going away for the weekend please give me my quote now because I can't remember it, and I don't want to miss it.
    Dude there are dozens - just from you. Its going to
    take weeks to repost them all from everyone but luckily I’m brutally cruel and I love gloating when I’m right so I’m prepared to put in the hard yards. Don’t worry you won’t miss anything - there will be plenty more when you return, for several weeks
    So you didn't find a single one?
    I want to catch you out when you’re not expecting it. More fun that way
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,653
    algarkirk said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    There is a problem brewing with postal votes (possibly only in Scotland). Lots of anecdotal evidence of them not arriving in time before people go on holiday.

    Scottish voters miss out on general election as postal ballots arrive late
    Anger as thousands leave for their holidays before forms turn up after ‘delivery difficulties’


    About 25 per cent of the Scottish electorate now vote through the post but voters in several areas, including Ayrshire, South Lanarkshire, Perthshire, Fife and the Western Isles, said they were still without their papers.

    The Electoral Management Board for Scotland (EMB) has admitted there have been “many difficulties experienced with the delivery of postal votes” across the country.

    The EMB, made up of returning officers and electoral registration officers, said there was now a need for a major review of capacity and systems.

    Royal Mail said it had investigated concerns over the delivery of postal votes in some areas but had found no issues.

    Blair McDougall, a Labour candidate, said: “In a seat in East Renfrewshire which is highly marginal and projections suggest could be won by a handful of votes, it is deeply frustrating to find yourself talking to people who say they will vote for you but cannot because they haven’t received their postal vote. We need the postal service to step up to the plate because this is not people’s fault.”

    Some voters said that although they had applied for a postal vote before the cut-off date of June 19, the ballot papers had not arrived before they went on holiday.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scottish-voters-postal-votes-general-election-3f395n6r3
    I got in touch with my council regarding an emergency proxy vote as my postal ballot did not arrive in time. No luck - missed the deadline for a switch in method and my circumstance is not an emergency.

    I was a fool for not going for proxy in the first place. But I value the secrecy of my vote, so I'd rather a postal. First election I will not have voted in. :(

    I think there should be much clearer guidelines around postal votes. What a mess.
    SFAICS there isn't any method of running an election, except by having a statutory fixed date (whatever happened to that?), which can make it certain that a random group of people won't be deprived of their vote by personal individual circumstances; both emergencies and prearranged stuff happens.

    It would still help of course if post got delivered.
    I would agree with that. But there should be a detailed investigation by the EC after the election to see how many people were caught up like me. It might be material in a few constituencies, depending on the demographic profile of those missing out.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    Jeez have you really got nothing else going on in your life? It's almost a shame nobody's got the time or will to wade through the floods of runny poo you have been posting on here for years to repost the most idiotic and obnoxious, though it would fill up the comments for many pages.
    He should NEVER be allowed to forget his reaction to Putin's 2021 speech, which essentially paved the way for the horrors that have followed:
    Leon said:



    He is right. He is absolutely right

    Read it all. This is the best, smartest, most wisely wide-ranging speech I have heard from any global political leader in a decade. And this is PUTIN

    He was absolutely right. It was about Wokeness and he nailed it. Unfortunately - as I say - it came from Vladimir Putin
    Back then, there wasn't any "unfortunately" from you. Putin was destined to save us all, allegedly.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    Dopermean said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    There is a problem brewing with postal votes (possibly only in Scotland). Lots of anecdotal evidence of them not arriving in time before people go on holiday.

    My son's postal vote in the Vale of Glamorgan hasn't arrived. He was told they were being posted on Monday, still nothing yesterday.

    Of course having applied and not received a postal ballot, the voter simply can't rock up to the polling station and vote.

    More voter suppressing Machiavellian genius from Rishi?
    Post has been increasingly erratic for the last few years.

    Postal votes are not going to be practical soon. Simply too unreliable soon.
    Good thing we are handing the Royal Mail over to a Czech. That's our democracy safe for the couple of decades while we transition to an electronic system on Fujitsu software.
    We're not handing it over, we're selling it to give the money for a few more foreign holidays.

    And a trillion quid of assets has gone the same way over the last few decades.
    My understanding is that he's buying it using debt he'll put on Royal Mail and only wants the European parcel business, which is profitable. So he'll carve that off and leave UK with a massively indebted, loss making Royal Mail.
    Wouldn't surprise me.

    If Starmer and Reeves want to do something useful in government then they need to put restrictions on debt financed private equity like that.
    There is a mood in favour of bringing stuff back into public ownership. Royal Mail would be a prime candidate. Listen to what people have to say about railways and water too.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    edited June 28
    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1806593033313321243

    @DPJHodges
    Key thing about the Biden car-crash. Trump won’t run against him. He’ll run against Harris. And say -correctly - if Biden wins she will become President by default.


    I think Dan's wrong here. Trump is driven by revenge more than anything else. He wants to beat Joe Biden and beat him up doing it. That's why I think he'll struggle against a different opponent.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The NYT take:

    President Biden hoped to build fresh momentum for his re-election bid by agreeing to debate nearly two months before he is to be formally nominated. Instead, his halting and disjointed performance on Thursday night prompted a wave of panic among Democrats and reopened discussion of whether he should be the nominee at all.

    Over the course of 90 minutes, a raspy-voiced Mr. Biden struggled to deliver his lines and counter a sharp though deeply dishonest former President Donald J. Trump, raising doubts about the incumbent president’s ability to wage a vigorous and competitive campaign four months before the election. Rather than dispel concerns about his age, Mr. Biden, 81, made it the central issue.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/us/politics/biden-debate-democrats.html
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.

    I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
    That sounds sensible

    I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman

    Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?

    She won't win any of the swing states.

    Is that the polling?

    Fair enough

    Jfc the democrats have got themselves in a right old pickle. Perhaps they should have been more honest with voters and themselves a year ago when it was already being pointed out that Biden was in speedy decline. Instead they decided to lie and to gaslight everyone. Generally, that doesn’t work out well
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    There is a problem brewing with postal votes (possibly only in Scotland). Lots of anecdotal evidence of them not arriving in time before people go on holiday.

    My son's postal vote in the Vale of Glamorgan hasn't arrived. He was told they were being posted on Monday, still nothing yesterday.

    Of course having applied and not received a postal ballot, the voter simply can't rock up to the polling station and vote.

    More voter suppressing Machiavellian genius from Rishi?
    Post has been increasingly erratic for the last few years.

    Postal votes are not going to be practical soon. Simply too unreliable soon.
    My son is in a flat in Oxford. It often takes more than a week for letters or parcels to arrive at his. A week is about the average, even for registered post. It is an appalling service.
  • algarkirk said:

    Dopermean said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    There is a problem brewing with postal votes (possibly only in Scotland). Lots of anecdotal evidence of them not arriving in time before people go on holiday.

    My son's postal vote in the Vale of Glamorgan hasn't arrived. He was told they were being posted on Monday, still nothing yesterday.

    Of course having applied and not received a postal ballot, the voter simply can't rock up to the polling station and vote.

    More voter suppressing Machiavellian genius from Rishi?
    Post has been increasingly erratic for the last few years.

    Postal votes are not going to be practical soon. Simply too unreliable soon.
    Good thing we are handing the Royal Mail over to a Czech. That's our democracy safe for the couple of decades while we transition to an electronic system on Fujitsu software.
    We're not handing it over, we're selling it to give the money for a few more foreign holidays.

    And a trillion quid of assets has gone the same way over the last few decades.
    My understanding is that he's buying it using debt he'll put on Royal Mail and only wants the European parcel business, which is profitable. So he'll carve that off and leave UK with a massively indebted, loss making Royal Mail.
    Wouldn't surprise me.

    If Starmer and Reeves want to do something useful in government then they need to put restrictions on debt financed private equity like that.
    There is a mood in favour of bringing stuff back into public ownership. Royal Mail would be a prime candidate. Listen to what people have to say about railways and water too.
    There is a mood. But no money.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.

    I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
    That sounds sensible

    I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman

    Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?

    She won't win any of the swing states.

    Is that the polling?

    Fair enough

    Jfc the democrats have got themselves in a right old pickle. Perhaps they should have been more honest with voters and themselves a year ago when it was already being pointed out that Biden was in speedy decline. Instead they decided to lie and to gaslight everyone. Generally, that doesn’t work out well

    They have totally ballsed up. Totally. But their worst option from here is to not make the change.

  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Couldn’t bring myself to watch any of the US debate.

    Interesting side note that, in different ways, both US and UK elections are more about fitness to govern than policy.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    No, it's not too late to change.
    I'd say it's odds on that Biden will (perhaps with some heavy persuasion being necessary) step down before the Democratic convention.

    So they've got a month and a half.
    Even in my ignorance I’ve assumed there are still options for the Dems. I was slightly taken aback when during a discussion this morning between Justin Webb and Sarah Smith (which is one definition of vapidity) that Smith, the BBC North American editor, admitted not knowing the rules governing any Biden replacement.
    It's political correctness gone mad. If they'd stayed with the well-paid Jon Sopel he'd have known every detail of the succession rules.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    tlg86 said:

    Nigelb said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Key thing about the Biden car-crash. Trump won’t run against him..

    No, he'll run against whomever the nominee will now be, and that's unlikely to be Biden.

    Dan is a bit slow.
    To be fair, you were telling me not to lay Biden a couple of weeks ago.
    Fair comment.

    I've said all along, though, that it's extremely hard, just from a practical point of view, to set aside a president who want to run again, unless their presidency has been manifestly a failure. In the current case, particularly so, as there isn't a single consensus replacement.

    Last night has changed that dynamic, as Biden's deterioration is impossible to spin.
    The change from (for example) the State of the Union address is stark.

    I'm happy to admit that I didn't predict the rate of his deterioration would be sufficient to change that dynamic before the convention - and in some way I'm relieved that has happened.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,583
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    Jeez have you really got nothing else going on in your life? It's almost a shame nobody's got the time or will to wade through the floods of runny poo you have been posting on here for years to repost the most idiotic and obnoxious, though it would fill up the comments for many pages.
    He should NEVER be allowed to forget his reaction to Putin's 2021 speech, which essentially paved the way for the horrors that have followed:
    Leon said:



    He is right. He is absolutely right

    Read it all. This is the best, smartest, most wisely wide-ranging speech I have heard from any global political leader in a decade. And this is PUTIN

    He was absolutely right. It was about Wokeness and he nailed it. Unfortunately - as I say - it came from Vladimir Putin
    Have you considered that VVP might not be correct (*), and that he's only saying it to sow discord amongst westerners?

    (*) After all, he's rarely truthful in anything...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    MattW said:
    Not well but it’s curious how TATA seem to want the blast furnaces shut down permanently before next Friday - I wonder why Friday is so important…
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited June 28
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    Jeez have you really got nothing else going on in your life? It's almost a shame nobody's got the time or will to wade through the floods of runny poo you have been posting on here for years to repost the most idiotic and obnoxious, though it would fill up the comments for many pages.
    He should NEVER be allowed to forget his reaction to Putin's 2021 speech, which essentially paved the way for the horrors that have followed:
    Leon said:



    He is right. He is absolutely right

    Read it all. This is the best, smartest, most wisely wide-ranging speech I have heard from any global political leader in a decade. And this is PUTIN

    He was absolutely right. It was about Wokeness and he nailed it. Unfortunately - as I say - it came from Vladimir Putin
    Back then, there wasn't any "unfortunately" from you. Putin was destined to save us all, allegedly.
    On this day of all days, when I have been completely vindicated YET AGAIN after being mocked and abused on PB, you question my judgment? You??? I’m right about basically everything and I see it two years before everyone
    else. Sorry

    On the other hand I am on a horrible boat in a very choppy sea crossing to Ushant. So my exultancy is potentially tinged with nausea
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Roger said:

    Seems like Biden has blown it. Not unpredictable. I must say if Trump now wins thank goodness Starmer and not Sunak will be in charge. Despite his appearance of pusillanimity underneath we know him to be a committed European and if ever we'll have needed to be part of a united Europe this is the time

    When push comes to shove the UK has always stood by its allies. Its not a fair statement to suggest that Sunak would do any less.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    On postal ballots I got my GE one over a week ago and a council by-election one earlier this week - so “local council organisation” rather than “fiendish Tory plot” seems to be the issue. If you do get a late postal ballot and intend to deliver it by hand to the polling station expect to be quizzed on why “don’t trust the Post Office” seemed an acceptable answer when I did it in the council elections. They are on the look out for postal vote harvesting and there is a limit on how many they will accept being handed in - 5 for a member of the public and 5 for family members if you are a political campaigner.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    I also have never understood the widespread animosity to Harris (which in my Pollyanna-ish way I am not ascribing to the most obvious factors).

    I mean, she’s no great stateswomen but f*ck me compared to Hinge and Bracket at the lecterns she is like Bismark, Churchill, and MLK rolled into one.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    eek said:

    MattW said:
    Not well but it’s curious how TATA seem to want the blast furnaces shut down permanently before next Friday - I wonder why Friday is so important…
    Isn't there is a big financial incentive from Rishi for the electric arc furnaces? If there is no alternative by Friday the next Government sticks rather than negotiates. Team Starmer might at least try to hold UNITE off until after next Friday.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.

    I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
    That sounds sensible

    I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman

    Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?

    She won't win any of the swing states.

    Is that the polling?

    Fair enough

    Jfc the democrats have got themselves in a right old pickle. Perhaps they should have been more honest with voters and themselves a year ago when it was already being pointed out that Biden was in speedy decline. Instead they decided to lie and to gaslight everyone. Generally, that doesn’t work out well

    They have totally ballsed up. Totally. But their worst option from here is to not make the change.

    I agree entirely. Letting Biden run now would be guaranteed defeat - not least because half of them have now basically admitted “Christ yeah he’s senile sorry”. How can they turn around after that and say “but we still want you to vote for him as President of the USA”. The mere fact his mental decline is openly admitted is self fulfilling - he cannot stand…. Can he????

    I think not. But they have to work fast and cleverly
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    edited June 28
    Ghedebrav said:

    I also have never understood the widespread animosity to Harris (which in my Pollyanna-ish way I am not ascribing to the most obvious factors).

    I mean, she’s no great stateswomen but f*ck me compared to Hinge and Bracket at the lecterns she is like Bismark, Churchill, and MLK rolled into one.

    She was pretty poor in her own debates running to be POTUS.

    But Biden put her there. And I dont see how it can be anyone else now given her position and the time.

    iirc I posted on here months ago that the problem would be that Trump will just say Harris is the one should focus on because she will be POTUS within months if Biden wins as he is too old to do the full term.

    I've spent time trying to persuade myself that Joe can do this but he set himself a test to prove he can do it and he flunked it, so this is over.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.

    I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
    That sounds sensible

    I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman

    Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?

    She won't win any of the swing states.

    I'd agree with Leon on this one.
    Harris isn't the ideal candidate, but she'd have a reasonable chance.

    And she's better paced than anyone else to actually be the replacement, should Biden step down.

    There will be a number of other possibile candidates who'll be struggling to decide whether to stay loyal, or declare they want the nomination; Harris by virtue of her position doesn't really have that dilemma.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    What's all this 'apology' bollocks? Where the fuck do you think you are?
    Halfway between Le Conquet and Ile Ouessant in a heavy sea
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    Ghedebrav said:

    I also have never understood the widespread animosity to Harris (which in my Pollyanna-ish way I am not ascribing to the most obvious factors).

    I mean, she’s no great stateswomen but f*ck me compared to Hinge and Bracket at the lecterns she is like Bismark, Churchill, and MLK rolled into one.

    She's a woman and she's black - and she lacks the communicative magic to get beyond that. In the US that makes her politically disastrous. It means she cannot win swing states.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    What's all this 'apology' bollocks? Where the fuck do you think you are?
    Halfway between Le Conquet and Ile Ouessant in a heavy sea
    What a weird bit of France. What is there.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    Jeez have you really got nothing else going on in your life? It's almost a shame nobody's got the time or will to wade through the floods of runny poo you have been posting on here for years to repost the most idiotic and obnoxious, though it would fill up the comments for many pages.
    He should NEVER be allowed to forget his reaction to Putin's 2021 speech, which essentially paved the way for the horrors that have followed:
    Leon said:



    He is right. He is absolutely right

    Read it all. This is the best, smartest, most wisely wide-ranging speech I have heard from any global political leader in a decade. And this is PUTIN

    He was absolutely right. It was about Wokeness and he nailed it. Unfortunately - as I say - it came from Vladimir Putin
    Back then, there wasn't any "unfortunately" from you. Putin was destined to save us all, allegedly.
    On this day of all days, when I have been completely vindicated YET AGAIN after being mocked and abused on PB, you question my judgment? You??? I’m right about basically everything and I see it two years before everyone
    else. Sorry

    On the other hand I am on a horrible boat in a very choppy sea crossing to Ushant. So my exultancy is potentially tinged with nausea
    The point is that spotting that Biden is old and doddery and that his memory is going is hardly an insight of staggering proportions. The question is whether he's going to be the nominee, or not? Despite my own severe and long-standing doubts that he will, it's still a strong possibility even after last night's shambolic performance.

    We'll just put Putin's destiny to save us all up there with Truss's predicted incoming brilliance, and the millions of Brits that were going to die from Covid, as exemplars of your worst nonsense and disproof of your absurd assertions above.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Completely off topic personal news but got a couple of reasons to celebrate. Had an interview last week for a new job and have been offered and accepted the job which I'm looking to starting.

    And separately, after eight months on my carnivore diet I have now lost 54lbs (24.5kg, nearly 4 stone). I am now pleased to say I have 'beaten' obesity and am well clear of the threshold for being obese. I set originally the target of losing 70lbs which will mean I'm no longer overweight at all if I can achieve that, let alone obese.

    Well done! I’m three stone down after quitting drinking six months ago (for balance I should add that’s without any animal products in my diet :) ).

    Congrats on the job as well.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    There is a problem brewing with postal votes (possibly only in Scotland). Lots of anecdotal evidence of them not arriving in time before people go on holiday.

    My son's postal vote in the Vale of Glamorgan hasn't arrived. He was told they were being posted on Monday, still nothing yesterday.

    Of course having applied and not received a postal ballot, the voter simply can't rock up to the polling station and vote.

    More voter suppressing Machiavellian genius from Rishi?
    Post has been increasingly erratic for the last few years.

    Postal votes are not going to be practical soon. Simply too unreliable soon.
    My son is in a flat in Oxford. It often takes more than a week for letters or parcels to arrive at his. A week is about the average, even for registered post. It is an appalling service.
    It really is and it is rather sad. I regularly have letters go missing entirely now

    I tell people not to post things to me unless it can’t be helped. We should let Amazon take over - they can apparently do what the Royal Mail cannot and at 100 times the speed
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    Nigelb said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Key thing about the Biden car-crash. Trump won’t run against him..

    No, he'll run against whomever the nominee will now be, and that's unlikely to be Biden.

    Dan is a bit slow.
    To be fair, you were telling me not to lay Biden a couple of weeks ago.
    Fair comment.

    I've said all along, though, that it's extremely hard, just from a practical point of view, to set aside a president who want to run again, unless their presidency has been manifestly a failure. In the current case, particularly so, as there isn't a single consensus replacement.

    Last night has changed that dynamic, as Biden's deterioration is impossible to spin.
    The change from (for example) the State of the Union address is stark.

    I'm happy to admit that I didn't predict the rate of his deterioration would be sufficient to change that dynamic before the convention - and in some way I'm relieved that has happened.

    What's interesting is that Biden is still odds on for the Dem nomination. So, actually, whilst laying him would have been a good bet, it's not a great bet yet. We're now at the point where a lot of people think he has to go, but that doesn't mean it will happen.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    Jeez have you really got nothing else going on in your life? It's almost a shame nobody's got the time or will to wade through the floods of runny poo you have been posting on here for years to repost the most idiotic and obnoxious, though it would fill up the comments for many pages.
    He should NEVER be allowed to forget his reaction to Putin's 2021 speech, which essentially paved the way for the horrors that have followed:
    Leon said:



    He is right. He is absolutely right

    Read it all. This is the best, smartest, most wisely wide-ranging speech I have heard from any global political leader in a decade. And this is PUTIN

    He was absolutely right. It was about Wokeness and he nailed it. Unfortunately - as I say - it came from Vladimir Putin
    Back then, there wasn't any "unfortunately" from you. Putin was destined to save us all, allegedly.
    On this day of all days, when I have been completely vindicated YET AGAIN after being mocked and abused on PB, you question my judgment? You??? I’m right about basically everything and I see it two years before everyone
    else. Sorry

    On the other hand I am on a horrible boat in a very choppy sea crossing to Ushant. So my exultancy is potentially tinged with nausea
    The point is that spotting that Biden is old and doddery and that his memory is going is hardly an insight of staggering proportions. The question is whether he's going to be the nominee, or not? Despite my own severe and long-standing doubts that he will, it's still a strong possibility even after last night's shambolic performance.

    We'll just put Putin's destiny to save us all up there with Truss's predicted incoming brilliance, and the millions of Brits that were going to die from Covid, as exemplars of your worst nonsense and disproof of your absurd assertions above.
    My continued brilliance pains you. I get it

  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.

    I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
    That sounds sensible

    I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman

    Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?

    She won't win any of the swing states.

    I'd agree with Leon on this one.
    Harris isn't the ideal candidate, but she'd have a reasonable chance.

    And she's better paced than anyone else to actually be the replacement, should Biden step down.

    There will be a number of other possibile candidates who'll be struggling to decide whether to stay loyal, or declare they want the nomination; Harris by virtue of her position doesn't really have that dilemma.
    To use a high-takes poker analogy, the Democrats are playing ‘tight weak’. Terrible hole cards and they are playing with excessive caution before inevitably losing.

    They need to take a big risk.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    Ghedebrav said:

    I also have never understood the widespread animosity to Harris (which in my Pollyanna-ish way I am not ascribing to the most obvious factors).

    I mean, she’s no great stateswomen but f*ck me compared to Hinge and Bracket at the lecterns she is like Bismark, Churchill, and MLK rolled into one.

    But there must also be American voters backing Trump with their nose held, merely because of Biden and his incapability, who might switch if the Dems offered somebody who could actually do the job?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    What's all this 'apology' bollocks? Where the fuck do you think you are?
    Halfway between Le Conquet and Ile Ouessant in a heavy sea
    What a weird bit of France. What is there.
    Beaucoup de l'eau salée
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.

    I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
    That sounds sensible

    I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman

    Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?

    She won't win any of the swing states.

    Is that the polling?

    Fair enough

    Jfc the democrats have got themselves in a right old pickle. Perhaps they should have been more honest with voters and themselves a year ago when it was already being pointed out that Biden was in speedy decline. Instead they decided to lie and to gaslight everyone. Generally, that doesn’t work out well
    Jill Biden has to take a lot of the blame for this mess imho.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    Completely off topic personal news but got a couple of reasons to celebrate. Had an interview last week for a new job and have been offered and accepted the job which I'm looking to starting.

    And separately, after eight months on my carnivore diet I have now lost 54lbs (24.5kg, nearly 4 stone). I am now pleased to say I have 'beaten' obesity and am well clear of the threshold for being obese. I set originally the target of losing 70lbs which will mean I'm no longer overweight at all if I can achieve that, let alone obese.

    Well done on both counts. Keep at it but don't panic if you bob up a bit it would only be natural. Losing weight is the most miserable thing and 4 stone is a huge amount, literally. Most people revert, sadly, once they have been on a diet so now the challenge is to find a mode of living and eating whereby you don't feel the need to eat in the way that you had done pre-weight loss.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    What's all this 'apology' bollocks? Where the fuck do you think you are?
    Halfway between Le Conquet and Ile Ouessant in a heavy sea
    What a weird bit of France. What is there.
    I couldn't dig up a clip of it but in 'A Bridge Too Far' there's a small bit where the German General is wondering why on earth the Allies would attack a certain area... then he twigs. 'Ich', 'Ich bin hier!' Sort of imagined Leon saying that :)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836
    edited June 28
    ... [not new]
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Completely off topic personal news but got a couple of reasons to celebrate. Had an interview last week for a new job and have been offered and accepted the job which I'm looking to starting.

    And separately, after eight months on my carnivore diet I have now lost 54lbs (24.5kg, nearly 4 stone). I am now pleased to say I have 'beaten' obesity and am well clear of the threshold for being obese. I set originally the target of losing 70lbs which will mean I'm no longer overweight at all if I can achieve that, let alone obese.

    Well done! It’s a great achievement. I too was close to obese about six months ago. I did a lot of things - fasting etc - then ozempic - to try and tackle it and they weren’t entirely successful

    But I’ve discovered a really cool way of dropping weight slowly but consistently. Move around more and eat less. Without even trying the weight comes off. It’s like magic
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860

    Completely off topic personal news but got a couple of reasons to celebrate. Had an interview last week for a new job and have been offered and accepted the job which I'm looking to starting.

    And separately, after eight months on my carnivore diet I have now lost 54lbs (24.5kg, nearly 4 stone). I am now pleased to say I have 'beaten' obesity and am well clear of the threshold for being obese. I set originally the target of losing 70lbs which will mean I'm no longer overweight at all if I can achieve that, let alone obese.

    Congrats on both counts. That a contrarian fatty can pull off such a dual success should inspire us all.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    What's all this 'apology' bollocks? Where the fuck do you think you are?
    Halfway between Le Conquet and Ile Ouessant in a heavy sea
    What a weird bit of France. What is there.
    Beaucoup de l'eau salée


    2m seas! It's like the 1998 Sydney - Hobart out there. Thoughts and prayers.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    Omnium said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    What's all this 'apology' bollocks? Where the fuck do you think you are?
    Halfway between Le Conquet and Ile Ouessant in a heavy sea
    What a weird bit of France. What is there.
    I couldn't dig up a clip of it but in 'A Bridge Too Far' there's a small bit where the German General is wondering why on earth the Allies would attack a certain area... then he twigs. 'Ich', 'Ich bin hier!' Sort of imagined Leon saying that :)
    I remember that. The silly fool thought the world's largest ever airborne invasion was a kidnapping raid aimed at him!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836
    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    What's all this 'apology' bollocks? Where the fuck do you think you are?
    Halfway between Le Conquet and Ile Ouessant in a heavy sea
    What a weird bit of France. What is there.
    Beaucoup de l'eau salée


    2m seas! It's like the 1998 Sydney - Hobart out there. Thoughts and prayers.
    And all of 3 on the Beaufort Scale. Where would Leon be in a fresh breeze?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited June 28
    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    What's all this 'apology' bollocks? Where the fuck do you think you are?
    Halfway between Le Conquet and Ile Ouessant in a heavy sea
    What a weird bit of France. What is there.
    Beaucoup de l'eau salée


    2m seas! It's like the 1998 Sydney - Hobart out there. Thoughts and prayers.
    Thanks. It looks like the captain has fainted in fear - it really is that scary - and a lot of the people are turning to me for help. This often happens so I’m kind of used to it, it’s an alpha thing

    If I go quiet for a bit it’s because I’ve manned the tiller and I’m saving 200 souls. Needs must
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    Former Senator Claire McCaskill:

    “Joe Biden had one thing he had to do tonight, and he didn’t do didn't do it...He had one thing he had to accomplish, and that was reassure America that he was up to the job at his age, and he failed at that tonight.”


    Biden wanted an early debate to show america he was up to the job.

    He's too old. Trump is also too old, and dangerous, but his relatively more dynamic demeanour seems to make people ignore he's too old.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    .
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    No, it's not too late to change.
    I'd say it's odds on that Biden will (perhaps with some heavy persuasion being necessary) step down before the Democratic convention.

    So they've got a month and a half.
    Even in my ignorance I’ve assumed there are still options for the Dems. I was slightly taken aback when during a discussion this morning between Justin Webb and Sarah Smith (which is one definition of vapidity) that Smith, the BBC North American editor, admitted not knowing the rules governing any Biden replacement.
    It's political correctness gone mad. If they'd stayed with the well-paid Jon Sopel he'd have known every detail of the succession rules.
    Sopel was fairly poor, but you're probably right.
    Webb and Smith are dreadful.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    What's all this 'apology' bollocks? Where the fuck do you think you are?
    Halfway between Le Conquet and Ile Ouessant in a heavy sea
    What a weird bit of France. What is there.
    Beaucoup de l'eau salée


    2m seas! It's like the 1998 Sydney - Hobart out there. Thoughts and prayers.
    Thanks. It looks like the captain has fainted in fear - it really is that scary - and a lot of the people are turning to me for help. This often happens so I’m kind of used to it, it’s an alpha thing

    If I go quiet for a bit it’s because I’ve manned the tiller and I’m saving 200 souls. Needs must
    Not many people reach such an advanced age without having ever taken responsibility for anything, so I hope it goes well...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited June 28
    Electoral Calculus has revised/updated its forecast and it looks interesting (LibDems HMMLO and Reform on a more realistic six seats (vs 19 previously)

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

    Edit: sorry for going off topic into UK politics (there's a PB apology for you).
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    I’m one of those that was told that Biden will be the candidate and it was silly to think otherwise. I suppose there’s still a small chance I’m wrong 😂

    Nate Silver has been taking extreme abuse online for months for being some sort of MAGA lackey, for pointing out the obvious about Biden and tying it to polling data. I don’t suppose the internet will be giving him an apology.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    Doesn't sound like something I'd say usually, but when you make as many posts as I do I cannot remember many.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Apparently, I said Abu Hunter was gaga in September 2021 though I am pretty sure LG1983 was first to say it.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3569187#Comment_3569187
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747

    It shows deep cruelty that they allowed him to stand again in the first place.

    But his unelected handlers who are running the show behind the scenes will be out of a job if a Democrat candidate who has their marbles was allowed to replace Biden.

    Thats what this is all about.

    A bit like if Andrew McIntosh had gone senile in 1980 so after winning the 1980 GLC election was kept in place by Leninspart and his cabal who actually did his job behind the scenes unseen by most.

    Bravo!
    That's an analogy worthy of PB.
    McIntosh/Livingston vs Biden/Trump.
    Where else would you see that?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    P
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    What's all this 'apology' bollocks? Where the fuck do you think you are?
    Halfway between Le Conquet and Ile Ouessant in a heavy sea
    What a weird bit of France. What is there.
    Beaucoup de l'eau salée


    2m seas! It's like the 1998 Sydney - Hobart out there. Thoughts and prayers.
    Thanks. It looks like the captain has fainted in fear - it really is that scary - and a lot of the people are turning to me for help. This often happens so I’m kind of used to it, it’s an alpha thing

    If I go quiet for a bit it’s because I’ve manned the tiller and I’m saving 200 souls. Needs must
    Not many people reach such an advanced age without having ever taken responsibility for anything, so I hope it goes well...
    Merci

    There’s also a woman having a baby without anaesthetic and I’m multitasking and biting the umbilicus between comments. Three drowned so far
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    TOPPING said:

    Completely off topic personal news but got a couple of reasons to celebrate. Had an interview last week for a new job and have been offered and accepted the job which I'm looking to starting.

    And separately, after eight months on my carnivore diet I have now lost 54lbs (24.5kg, nearly 4 stone). I am now pleased to say I have 'beaten' obesity and am well clear of the threshold for being obese. I set originally the target of losing 70lbs which will mean I'm no longer overweight at all if I can achieve that, let alone obese.

    Well done on both counts. Keep at it but don't panic if you bob up a bit it would only be natural. Losing weight is the most miserable thing and 4 stone is a huge amount, literally. Most people revert, sadly, once they have been on a diet so now the challenge is to find a mode of living and eating whereby you don't feel the need to eat in the way that you had done pre-weight loss.
    Thanks, yeah. It has bobbed up and down over the past eight months, with the odd plateaus too, but the long-term trend has been one-way.

    I think everyone is different and everyone needs to find something that works for them and they can sustain, which is why facile things like "just eat less and move more" is like saying to pilot a jet you just need to "decide where you want to go, go up in the air, then get there".

    I've never been addicted to smoking or anything else, but I now think that battling your weight is kind of like battling an addiction. When I was eating carbs I would be very hungry and craving food not many hours after having eaten, which is caused by biology and how it affects some people.

    Cutting out carbs, I no longer have the cravings, I very rarely get hungry and typically only eat because I know its time to eat and not because I'm "starving" and need to eat.

    The danger is going to be if I reintroduce carbs and the cravings come back, but to be honest I don't really miss them anyway. My dad was a vegetarian for decades until he got diabetes (which is what motivated me to lose the weight) and he switched from eating a vegetarian diet to more protein/meat based (but not as extreme as me). I don't really miss carbs, besides sushi which I'll probably allow myself as a "cheat" from time to time once I'm looking to maintain my weight rather than lose anymore.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,793
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.

    I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.

    Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”

    So well done you. Seriously

    Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
    The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.

    I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
    That sounds sensible

    I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman

    Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
    Yep she’s a woman of color - and that will cost the Dems some votes in what may seem weird places - such as Latino votes
    I suspect her problem is not so much being a non-white woman, but being a candidate who has been selected BECAUSE she is a non-white woman, rather than on any personal merits.
    Because her personal merits seem comparatively thin.
    Mind you, so do those of Gavin Newsom.
This discussion has been closed.