Still on elections, is there really this bias against independant candidates?
As an Independent Candidate I was unable to get access to the voters roll, and in particular to the Postal (Absent) Voters Roll until the day the election was called, and the day I had completed formal nomination forms and they were accepted.
Or so you would think. In reality, it took Perth and Kinross Council a further full week before I was supplied with this information… and it took a bit of a battle before they sent it to me.
This matters, because, unlike the parties (who have access to the previous GE/HE voters roll register – and they don’t change too much) – it gives the Independent Candidate almost no time to canvass, leaflet, or write to, Postal Voters prior to the postal votes being issued and then returned. (Postal vote forms were sent out on 19th, and counting of them starts, on 27th)
Yes, in that only elected representatives or registered political parties or confirmed candidates are entitled to this data, and an Indy only becomes a candidate when the nominations close. I can't see any other way to do it.
Completely off topic personal news but got a couple of reasons to celebrate. Had an interview last week for a new job and have been offered and accepted the job which I'm looking to starting.
And separately, after eight months on my carnivore diet I have now lost 54lbs (24.5kg, nearly 4 stone). I am now pleased to say I have 'beaten' obesity and am well clear of the threshold for being obese. I set originally the target of losing 70lbs which will mean I'm no longer overweight at all if I can achieve that, let alone obese.
Well done on both counts. Keep at it but don't panic if you bob up a bit it would only be natural. Losing weight is the most miserable thing and 4 stone is a huge amount, literally. Most people revert, sadly, once they have been on a diet so now the challenge is to find a mode of living and eating whereby you don't feel the need to eat in the way that you had done pre-weight loss.
Thanks, yeah. It has bobbed up and down over the past eight months, with the odd plateaus too, but the long-term trend has been one-way.
I think everyone is different and everyone needs to find something that works for them and they can sustain, which is why facile things like "just eat less and move more" is like saying to pilot a jet you just need to "decide where you want to go, go up in the air, then get there".
I've never been addicted to smoking or anything else, but I now think that battling your weight is kind of like battling an addiction. When I was eating carbs I would be very hungry and craving food not many hours after having eaten, which is caused by biology and how it affects some people.
Cutting out carbs, I no longer have the cravings, I very rarely get hungry and typically only eat because I know its time to eat and not because I'm "starving" and need to eat.
The danger is going to be if I reintroduce carbs and the cravings come back, but to be honest I don't really miss them anyway. My dad was a vegetarian for decades until he got diabetes (which is what motivated me to lose the weight) and he switched from eating a vegetarian diet to more protein/meat based (but not as extreme as me). I don't really miss carbs, besides sushi which I'll probably allow myself as a "cheat" from time to time once I'm looking to maintain my weight rather than lose anymore.
A colleague has been on and off ozempic equivalents (supply issues mainly) and hates it. He had it for diabetes, and it is brutally effective. It stops him eating. He has no appetite, gets really full quickly and cannot drink beer anymore. Result is rapid weight loss to the point where he will need to stop the drug because his BMI will be below 25.
I can see why people want to use this drug to lose weight. It works. But I also recall the old saying "if you only drink water and eat lettuce you won't live forever, but it will feel like it". For a lot of people eating is fun. Take that away and I suspect a lot of people will wonder if its worth it.
Except that is something you can adjust in your diet, too.
I'd recommend the Carbs and Cals series of recipe / cook books, and apps.
First came out of the need to help people with diabetes get to grips with carb counting (with iirc calorie counting as an add on), as most people are more visual than PBers doing arbitrage calculations in our heads, and have a range of useful recipes with details of ... carbs and cals. Another medical-adjacent product which I think came from a clinician who has created a second career.
Plus an ingredient reference photographed at different sizes, which is fun and establishes a visual link, and helps avoid "larger portions by stealth". Covers a lot of purchased foods, too.
You won't get on with everything, but it's a way to explore options. I have about 4 of them - the first one, salads, soups, world foods etc.
* I know that 60g is a fairly normal hegg because my school friend who competed with his dad in the Great Hegg Race was mortified that he could only find one 0.2g above the specified minimum weight, and it was about that weight.
Counting carbs is certainly much easier than counting calories and works better too IMHO.
In my diet 20g/day of carbs is the maximum recommended daily allowance and I completely agree with your picture that most of my daily carbs come from milk (in coffee mainly, I've long done my scrambled eggs milkless).
The general advice for people on my diet is to keep carbs below 20g then you don't need to worry about calories too much, just eat when you're hungry. You won't end up overeating if you're not consuming the carbs as you won't be hungry.
I tried substituting my milk for other things when I first started the diet but I didn't enjoy them, so dropped it as a concept. You need to find something that you enjoy so I'm happy to give my carb allowance over to milk.
i am greatly amused by Leon's account of the horrors of 2m seas.
In January I was evacuated along with the rest of the crew from the Ocean Great White semi-sub, West of Shetlands. 30m seas and 100 knot winds - though by the time we were evacuated it was down to a mere 17m seas and 70 knots. The waves ripped all the equipment off the bottom if the rig and dropped 1000 tons of riser onto the seafloor and right across the main gas export line.
Is it true that the North Sea is one of the roughest/most volatile? I'm sure I've read that somewhere, but I would be interested to hear first hand!
It may be one of the roughest basins - enclosed sea areas. The stuff in the South Atlantic/Pacific/Indian - the classic roaring 40s - is uniformly much rougher but the North Sea/Norwegian Sea is about the toughest of the commercial basins to work in weather wise.
West of Shetlands is worse. The weather funnels between Shetland/Faroes/Iceland/Greenland and that causes hurricane force winds on a regular basis. And unlike the Gulf where they get real hurricanes and downman in advance, we don't do that. We just sit it out. It is uncomfortble in the extreme with rig heaves of 6-10m being regular. That is the rig moving up and down by that much over a period of 30-60 seconds. But generally it is not life threatening. It is just the fact that you know it has been life threatening at times that adds the element of uncertainty.
I think the problem with the OGW was and is that she is just too big for a floater. She is the largest semi-sub in the world. I have spenta lot of time on smaller semis West of Shetlands over the years and they ride the storms. The OGW sits there and lets the storm batter it. Hence I think the failure that took it out.
i am greatly amused by Leon's account of the horrors of 2m seas.
In January I was evacuated along with the rest of the crew from the Ocean Great White semi-sub, West of Shetlands. 30m seas and 100 knot winds - though by the time we were evacuated it was down to a mere 17m seas and 70 knots. The waves ripped all the equipment off the bottom if the rig and dropped 1000 tons of riser onto the seafloor and right across the main gas export line.
Is it true that the North Sea is one of the roughest/most volatile? I'm sure I've read that somewhere, but I would be interested to hear first hand!
I believe the sea between Shetland and Foula is one of the roughest in the world (I flew over it to get to foula). They told me they have, on average, one calm day a year. Maybe they were pulling my leg? But when I went to the tiny harbour I saw a device for hauling the ferry boat entirely out of the sea in case of storms - a huge crane that held the boat aloft. IN THE HARBOUR
If you have to do that then you definitely have rough seas
My father in law recounted that on many occasions on returning to his home port of Lossiemouth from fishing off the west coast of Scotland he would go astern, even with full power, at times in the Pentland Firth where the Atlantic meets the North Sea
However, the roughest seas are on the Southern Ocean and in particular Drake passage
The Pentland Firth was chosen as a test site for tidal power generation partly for that reason - if the devices can cope wth those extremes, they can manage anywhere.
At this point I think the alternative to Biden as Democrat candidate is Kemala Harris. There may be theoretical other alternatives but the actual alternative is Harris. So as a Democrat do you think you will do better with Harris as the sane option or better with Biden? That is the one and only choice in front of you.
Yes, sure, it’s theoretically possible that Channel 4 just *happened* to strike gold by finding a horrendous racist who just HAPPENS to be an actor who just HAPPENS to specialise in the same “rough voice” used in the undercover footage and just HAPPENS to be a Reform supporter.
Such a relief nobody else within Reform has exhibited the same behaviours. One bad apple etc
Heh, like my friend @CorrectHorseBattery called Johnson's peak when the Pb consensus was that he'd govern for 10 years, I seem to have perfectly called the Reform peak
Given recent events on PB perhaps this isn’t the best place to throw insults about dementia or make amateur guesses about dementia when you’re not qualified to do so.
We all, of course, see your point - but how else do we discuss last night? If we aren’t allowed to use these words? Everyone in the American media is now openly using them - even the Biden friendly media
Doddery, old, slow, forgetful - plenty of words to use other than dementia.
To be honest the clips I've seen remind me of my late grandad, who did not have dementia but who was increasingly slow and forgetful and could lose his place more easily.
Dementia is something different and although I didn't watch the debate I've seen no signs of that in any of the debates, I just see a frail old man who is past it.
I’ve seen dementia up close and personal. My poor mother has it now, and her husband has it too (I thank god they are sinking together)
He in particular exhibits all the behaviours we see in Biden. The vacant staring. The incoherent speech. The wandering off. Some of it is identical
However I’ve no wish to upset the mods and if @TSE and @rcs would prefer us to use different words that’s fine and I will obey. The point is made, anyway
The 'point' is that you are (1) clueless about dementia and (2) cheap and nasty enough to be forever spreading Trumpist propaganda and gloating whenever anything happens that you think improves his chances of becoming President again.
And it is indeed made. It's been made for quite some time tbf.
Yes, I am “clueless” about dementia apart from the fact that my mother has it, as does her husband, and I was there when she was formally diagnosed by the dementia nurse (along with her husband) and we spent an afternoon discussing - with the nurse - what this meant, why she had this diagnosis, what the prognosis was (not great) and so on
Apart from that I have no experience of it at all and I am obviously unable to see it in others
You know, sometimes I forgive you your inane commentary because you’re not very sharp. But occasionally I realise you’re not just a bit dim, you are also quite inadequate as a human being
I see right through you, I'm afraid, esp when it comes to this US stuff.
Really sorry to hear that about your mum. That's a sad thing we have in common. Mine has it too and it's awful. Do I think this gives me the ability to diagnose it in Joe Biden? No, I don't. Why? Because it doesn't. All that can reasonably be diagnosed by either you or me is a case of "too frail to run again and shouldn't".
Yes, sure, it’s theoretically possible that Channel 4 just *happened* to strike gold by finding a horrendous racist who just HAPPENS to be an actor who just HAPPENS to specialise in the same “rough voice” used in the undercover footage and just HAPPENS to be a Reform supporter.
There's a lot of it going around. people are setting things up all the time. There's this for example...
The bloke is a singer/actor who was paid to do this. He's been paid to do a couple of impersonations of Farage over the years. He told me that people organised it to get more views of their 'media empire'
Yes, sure, it’s theoretically possible that Channel 4 just *happened* to strike gold by finding a horrendous racist who just HAPPENS to be an actor who just HAPPENS to specialise in the same “rough voice” used in the undercover footage and just HAPPENS to be a Reform supporter.
She’s about two steps from turning into Alex Jones.
He is definitely too old. But he shows no signs of dementia.
However, Trump does.
Careful, Leon is pretending that he is making a 'spreadsheet'
Absolutely Biden should be replaced but is anyone actually capable of defeating Trump?
Biden is the only candidate to have ever actually beaten Trump.
Trump is really unpopular - the DNC just seems to enjoy putting up more unpopular politicians against him. Anyone not named Hillary Clinton would have beaten Trump in 2016. Anyone not named Joe Biden could probably beat him easily now.
But who? That is the point, who is this person?
I am not interested in some mythical person, I want an actual person.
Newsom or Whitmer would probably be the establishment Dem choice, and probably the easiest to run. I’d personally prefer Whitmer as POTUS and Newsom as VP, but I think Newsom is the favourite for POTUS.
Thanks. And how do these people replace Biden or it's too late?
Heh, like my friend @CorrectHorseBattery called Johnson's peak when the Pb consensus was that he'd govern for 10 years, I seem to have perfectly called the Reform peak
The actual poll next week will be fascinating. In real votes Reform have tended to underperform the polling and I suspect this will be true again next week. I think the conservatives will be a couple of points up too, but it will still be a huge Labour majority.
Number one prediction though is that the SNP will not 'win' Scotland, but will also claim that the vote is not a a rejection of independence.
I heard some longer clips of Biden on Talk Radio (Not the friendliest of stations to centre-left politicians) and he definitely sounded better than the word salads that have been clipped up online.
A low bar, granted but I don't think there's enough there to oust him and then he can do a COMEBACK debate in September
A comeback debate where there's rock bottom expectations. He has a good one, confounds everyone, and with the election just round the corner. Very very cunning. Dark Brandon or what.
I heard some longer clips of Biden on Talk Radio (Not the friendliest of stations to centre-left politicians) and he definitely sounded better than the word salads that have been clipped up online.
A low bar, granted but I don't think there's enough there to oust him and then he can do a COMEBACK debate in September
I forgot about the debate and woke up to the PB Header and my heart sank.
Playing catch-up I read the PB comments and then watched the CNN highlights and Biden wasn't as bad as I'd feared, but this may be because I've thought for a long time that he isn't fit to be president due to dementia/age. If you were in denial of this then I suppose his performance in the debate would have been more of a shock.
I felt the same. Reading the coverage I was expecting something worse than the highlight I saw. But he certainly is not fit to be a candidate.
Unfortunately perhaps his performance was not bad enough for him to be replaced as candidate, but bad enough (if continued) to hand the election to Trump.
Anyone who knows somebody with dementia as I do would not class Biden as having it.
There are several forms of dementia. They do not all have the same symptoms. My mother's partner had one of the less common ones and in its early stages it wasn't entirely dissimilar to how Biden is presenting.
Technically it isn't, Biden's delegates could be released at the convention and nominate a new candidate.
We of course also have Trump's sentencing a few days before the GOP convention too, now while unlikely if the judge is annoyed by Trump's lack of remorse he could jail him. Which would mean absolute chaos for both parties
Yes, sure, it’s theoretically possible that Channel 4 just *happened* to strike gold by finding a horrendous racist who just HAPPENS to be an actor who just HAPPENS to specialise in the same “rough voice” used in the undercover footage and just HAPPENS to be a Reform supporter.
Let’s put it another way - if they go with Harris it’s a huge gamble but they’ve got a chance to win.
If they go with Biden, they lose now I’m afraid.
No, even now Biden is more electable than Harris in the swing states.
Whitmer maybe the only alternative who polls better there
I promise I haven't just liked that because I put a very long shot bet on Whitmer to be the nominee about 6 months ago when Biden was certain to run but clearly too frail to do so.
I still don't see it happening, though, not least because Harris would have to get out of the way.
Anyone who knows somebody with dementia as I do would not class Biden as having it.
There are several forms of dementia. They do not all have the same symptoms. My mother's partner had one of the less common ones and in its early stages it wasn't entirely dissimilar to how Biden is presenting.
Yes
As I’ve said my mother AND her husband are both formally diagnosed with dementia (which is a weird kind of blessing I think, in the circs). So I see it painfully close and it is quite distressing (so I have great sympathy for people close to Biden, unless they are enabling him to stay on - then they are dangerous fools)
My mum’s dementia is nothing like Biden’s. Her symptoms are constant repetition of stories and phrases and forgetting names/identities entirely. She often thinks I am her grandson
But physically if you looked at her (and didn’t listen) you might not even guess she is demented. However her husband is entirely different and with him there are many more physical symptoms - the vague staring, the bewildered face, the odd rictus smile, plus he wanders off for no reason - also his speech is incoherent gibberish quite a lot of the time. He REALLY resembles Biden
A very sad state of affairs. Tho there is seriously promising medicine in the works - for dementia - AIUI. Too late for Biden or my mum tho
It is deeply disturbing that the man with his finger on the world’s biggest nuclear arsenal has significant cognitive impairment. It would be safest if he was asked to retire on health grounds.
It is deeply disturbing that the man with his finger on the world’s biggest nuclear arsenal has significant cognitive impairment. It would be safest if he was asked to retire on health grounds.
To be fair, Biden would probably be too sleepy to find the nuclear button let alone bother to press it.
Trump if he had a bad night though could easily push it in a strop against some foreign leader's capital who infuriated him unless the generals and his Cabinet talked him out of it
i am greatly amused by Leon's account of the horrors of 2m seas.
In January I was evacuated along with the rest of the crew from the Ocean Great White semi-sub, West of Shetlands. 30m seas and 100 knot winds - though by the time we were evacuated it was down to a mere 17m seas and 70 knots. The waves ripped all the equipment off the bottom if the rig and dropped 1000 tons of riser onto the seafloor and right across the main gas export line.
Is it true that the North Sea is one of the roughest/most volatile? I'm sure I've read that somewhere, but I would be interested to hear first hand!
It may be one of the roughest basins - enclosed sea areas. The stuff in the South Atlantic/Pacific/Indian - the classic roaring 40s - is uniformly much rougher but the North Sea/Norwegian Sea is about the toughest of the commercial basins to work in weather wise.
West of Shetlands is worse. The weather funnels between Shetland/Faroes/Iceland/Greenland and that causes hurricane force winds on a regular basis. And unlike the Gulf where they get real hurricanes and downman in advance, we don't do that. We just sit it out. It is uncomfortble in the extreme with rig heaves of 6-10m being regular. That is the rig moving up and down by that much over a period of 30-60 seconds. But generally it is not life threatening. It is just the fact that you know it has been life threatening at times that adds the element of uncertainty.
I think the problem with the OGW was and is that she is just too big for a floater. She is the largest semi-sub in the world. I have spenta lot of time on smaller semis West of Shetlands over the years and they ride the storms. The OGW sits there and lets the storm batter it. Hence I think the failure that took it out.
V interesting - cheers! Not the job for me, I think.
Anyone who knows somebody with dementia as I do would not class Biden as having it.
There are several forms of dementia. They do not all have the same symptoms. My mother's partner had one of the less common ones and in its early stages it wasn't entirely dissimilar to how Biden is presenting.
We have posters on here saying they know people with dementia and Biden clearly has it. We have posters on here saying they know people with dementia and Biden clearly doesn't have it. This gives a good idea of how much these takes are worth.
What is clear is that he's too frail to campaign for a 2nd term or to serve one if he won.
Trump if he had a bad night though could easily push it in a strop against some foreign leader's capital who infuriated him unless the generals and his Cabinet talked him out of it
He would be more likely to launch them against a NATO ally than any genuine threat
Given recent events on PB perhaps this isn’t the best place to throw insults about dementia or make amateur guesses about dementia when you’re not qualified to do so.
We all, of course, see your point - but how else do we discuss last night? If we aren’t allowed to use these words? Everyone in the American media is now openly using them - even the Biden friendly media
Doddery, old, slow, forgetful - plenty of words to use other than dementia.
To be honest the clips I've seen remind me of my late grandad, who did not have dementia but who was increasingly slow and forgetful and could lose his place more easily.
Dementia is something different and although I didn't watch the debate I've seen no signs of that in any of the debates, I just see a frail old man who is past it.
I’ve seen dementia up close and personal. My poor mother has it now, and her husband has it too (I thank god they are sinking together)
He in particular exhibits all the behaviours we see in Biden. The vacant staring. The incoherent speech. The wandering off. Some of it is identical
However I’ve no wish to upset the mods and if @TSE and @rcs would prefer us to use different words that’s fine and I will obey. The point is made, anyway
The 'point' is that you are (1) clueless about dementia and (2) cheap and nasty enough to be forever spreading Trumpist propaganda and gloating whenever anything happens that you think improves his chances of becoming President again.
And it is indeed made. It's been made for quite some time tbf.
Yes, I am “clueless” about dementia apart from the fact that my mother has it, as does her husband, and I was there when she was formally diagnosed by the dementia nurse (along with her husband) and we spent an afternoon discussing - with the nurse - what this meant, why she had this diagnosis, what the prognosis was (not great) and so on
Apart from that I have no experience of it at all and I am obviously unable to see it in others
You know, sometimes I forgive you your inane commentary because you’re not very sharp. But occasionally I realise you’re not just a bit dim, you are also quite inadequate as a human being
I see right through you, I'm afraid, esp when it comes to this US stuff.
Really sorry to hear that about your mum. That's a sad thing we have in common. Mine has it too and it's awful. Do I think this gives me the ability to diagnose it in Joe Biden? No, I don't. Why? Because it doesn't. All that can reasonably be diagnosed by either you or me is a case of "too frail to run again and shouldn't".
Yeah whatever. You claimed I know nothing about dementia after reading a comment where I told you that my mother has dementia. You’re just an arsehole
Yes, sure, it’s theoretically possible that Channel 4 just *happened* to strike gold by finding a horrendous racist who just HAPPENS to be an actor who just HAPPENS to specialise in the same “rough voice” used in the undercover footage and just HAPPENS to be a Reform supporter.
She’s about two steps from turning into Alex Jones.
He might be a volunteer with a day job as an actor.
What is odd that, assuming both are the same person, he appears to have been "in character" with one of his apparent "rough voice" specialisms while volunteering.
Watching the overnight interviews that KH gave it's really quite striking how much better she seems than either Biden or Trump.
This is why the hypotheticals aren’t that helpful.
When people are being polled they’re not being asked about a President Harris vs Trump. They’re being asked about a gaffe-prone VP who hasn’t been given much to do vs Trump.
If KH is elevated to the Presidency that reset button is pressed. She has a window to then try to show she is competent, calm, coherent and presidential. It is a painfully short window. But it is not inconceivable that she could succeed.
I have said before that KH is a better politician than people give her credit for. She does not come across well in her current job - which I don’t think, charitably, is for her. The Presidency is something completely different though.
Anyone who knows somebody with dementia as I do would not class Biden as having it.
There are several forms of dementia. They do not all have the same symptoms. My mother's partner had one of the less common ones and in its early stages it wasn't entirely dissimilar to how Biden is presenting.
It's also pretty hard to diagnose for sure.
The cognitive diagnosis tests are pretty useless, dependent on a person's education, engagement in current affairs etc The brain scan where they show the holes developing in the brain doesn't seem too difficult to assess. It's just that they ration the latter, I assume because there's no cure and other demands on the scanners for patients that could be cureable.
Just looking at the last week's polling - is this the first week we've had where a majority of polls have had the Tories under 20%?
Wagergate effect, I'd guess. Right at the outset, I'd jokingly said maybe this is the one election where we get used to the concept of 'swingaway' replacing 'swingback'. I didn't expect it to be true,
I heard some longer clips of Biden on Talk Radio (Not the friendliest of stations to centre-left politicians) and he definitely sounded better than the word salads that have been clipped up online.
A low bar, granted but I don't think there's enough there to oust him and then he can do a COMEBACK debate in September
A comeback debate where there's rock bottom expectations. He has a good one, confounds everyone, and with the election just round the corner. Very very cunning. Dark Brandon or what.
No way on earth Trump will agree to another debate now
Yes, sure, it’s theoretically possible that Channel 4 just *happened* to strike gold by finding a horrendous racist who just HAPPENS to be an actor who just HAPPENS to specialise in the same “rough voice” used in the undercover footage and just HAPPENS to be a Reform supporter.
She’s about two steps from turning into Alex Jones.
He might be a volunteer with a day job as an actor.
What is odd that, assuming both are the same person, he appears to have been "in character" with one of his apparent "rough voice" specialisms while volunteering.
Which is setting off various Klaxons.
What's wrong with treating your default voice as one of the menu options?
I heard some longer clips of Biden on Talk Radio (Not the friendliest of stations to centre-left politicians) and he definitely sounded better than the word salads that have been clipped up online.
A low bar, granted but I don't think there's enough there to oust him and then he can do a COMEBACK debate in September
A comeback debate where there's rock bottom expectations. He has a good one, confounds everyone, and with the election just round the corner. Very very cunning. Dark Brandon or what.
No way on earth Trump will agree to another debate now
Yes, sure, it’s theoretically possible that Channel 4 just *happened* to strike gold by finding a horrendous racist who just HAPPENS to be an actor who just HAPPENS to specialise in the same “rough voice” used in the undercover footage and just HAPPENS to be a Reform supporter.
She’s about two steps from turning into Alex Jones.
He might be a volunteer with a day job as an actor.
What is odd that, assuming both are the same person, he appears to have been "in character" with one of his apparent "rough voice" specialisms while volunteering.
Which is setting off various Klaxons.
What's wrong with treating your default voice as one of the menu options?
The allegation is that his normal voice is "well spoken" and claimed to be as such on his website.
Just looking at the last week's polling - is this the first week we've had where a majority of polls have had the Tories under 20%?
Wagergate effect, I'd guess. Right at the outset, I'd jokingly said maybe this is the one election where we get used to the concept of 'swingaway' replacing 'swingback'. I didn't expect it to be true,
From National Service, to D-Day, to wagergate.
Its been a neverending pile of shite from the Tories campaign.
I believe it was @Casino_Royale who put it best the other day when he said at this point he could shit in his hands and clap and it would be more appealing than this campaign.
Its only fears of Labour I think that are keeping him and others voting Tory still.
The best politicians are honest about themselves. In a recording from earlier this year the newly selected candidate for Southampton Itchen, Sidney Yankson, had a few choice words about his own candidacy. It doesn’t fill you with confidence for the now-formerly battleground seat…
Yankson describes how he missed out on Selby due to “an inside job” before immediately coming runner up in Kingston upon Hull West – which Yankson says he knows nothing about (“is it twinned with New York?“). Eventually he describes that he got a call: “so can you come to Southampton, someone has pulled out? I said alright, so I went to Southampton.” Ruminating on why his attempts had kept failing Yankson says “I looked at my CV and said, you’re basically crap, that’s why you’re not in the final three.” In a seat with a Conservative majority of 4,498 he might need to find some self-esteem before Thursday…
I heard some longer clips of Biden on Talk Radio (Not the friendliest of stations to centre-left politicians) and he definitely sounded better than the word salads that have been clipped up online.
A low bar, granted but I don't think there's enough there to oust him and then he can do a COMEBACK debate in September
A comeback debate where there's rock bottom expectations. He has a good one, confounds everyone, and with the election just round the corner. Very very cunning. Dark Brandon or what.
No way on earth Trump will agree to another debate now
No way would Democrats allow Biden to take part in one either if they nominate him again at their convention
Trump if he had a bad night though could easily push it in a strop against some foreign leader's capital who infuriated him unless the generals and his Cabinet talked him out of it
He would be more likely to launch them against a NATO ally than any genuine threat
Andrew Neil @afneil I write in this piece that senior Democrats have long been hoping Jill Biden would have a quiet word in her husband’s ear about pulling out of the race. But that the First Lady likes her position too much to do that. After the way she congratulated Biden post-debate — much as a mother would a child — it looks for now as if nothing has changed. But pressure for him to quit from Democrats will reach fever pitch this weekend.
Just looking at the last week's polling - is this the first week we've had where a majority of polls have had the Tories under 20%?
Wagergate effect, I'd guess. Right at the outset, I'd jokingly said maybe this is the one election where we get used to the concept of 'swingaway' replacing 'swingback'. I didn't expect it to be true,
From National Service, to D-Day, to wagergate.
Its been a neverending pile of shite from the Tories campaign.
I believe it was @Casino_Royale who put it best the other day when he said at this point he could shit in his hands and clap and it would be more appealing than this campaign.
Its only fears of Labour I think that are keeping him and others voting Tory still.
TBF I'm not sure Natty Servs was actually that big a hit to them. And it was at least a policy.
I'd guess the Sky TV thing was more impactful, probably the fourth most significant thing after D-Day, Farage/Reform and then the betting.
There's also been a constant drumbeat of minor gaffes, and an entire gaffe sub-genre called 'Rishi Looks A Tit'.
Yes, sure, it’s theoretically possible that Channel 4 just *happened* to strike gold by finding a horrendous racist who just HAPPENS to be an actor who just HAPPENS to specialise in the same “rough voice” used in the undercover footage and just HAPPENS to be a Reform supporter.
She’s about two steps from turning into Alex Jones.
He might be a volunteer with a day job as an actor.
What is odd that, assuming both are the same person, he appears to have been "in character" with one of his apparent "rough voice" specialisms while volunteering.
Which is setting off various Klaxons.
What's wrong with treating your default voice as one of the menu options?
The allegation is that his normal voice is "well spoken" and claimed to be as such on his website.
Boom!
Back when I was being treated for leukeamia I was hoping to be released from isolation on the ward to go home (I'd become neutropenic after a round of chemo). One of the consultants came in to say that because the team had not taken bloods in the morning, they couldn't say if I was safe to go. Oddly, he did the whole thing in an Inpsector Clouseau mock French accent. For about 10 minutes. Made me start questioning my sanity for a while.
Goodwin's latest polling is out, a representative sample of self-selecting largely GB News watching viewers weighted to better resemble the demographics etc of the general population.
Clicking on the link to the detail via wiki I got this: This site can’t provide a secure connection www.matthewjgoodwin.org uses an unsupported protocol. ERR_SSL_VERSION_OR_CIPHER_MISMATCH
Andrew Neil @afneil I write in this piece that senior Democrats have long been hoping Jill Biden would have a quiet word in her husband’s ear about pulling out of the race. But that the First Lady likes her position too much to do that. After the way she congratulated Biden post-debate — much as a mother would a child — it looks for now as if nothing has changed. But pressure for him to quit from Democrats will reach fever pitch this weekend.
Matthew Goodwin started out as well-meaning and interesting academic but he seems to have actually gone down a rabbit hole into believing and now using data to confirm his own biases. Very worrying.
My ushant problem is solved. I’ve dumped the van and rented an ebike so I can drink myself stupid all day. Sorted
Up to a point, Lord Copper
What are the cycling laws in France regarding drinking and cycling?
We’re often asked by our cycling holiday guests about drinking laws and bikes. Well, cycling laws in France are the same as for motorists in this respect with similar penalties. If you are blind drunk and causing a danger to others you’ll be paying a fine – so don’t over-do your wine-tasting! In fact the official limit for a cyclist is between 0.25 and 0.4 mg/l of exhaled air when taking a breath test. The fine for being under the influence of alcohol is €135.
My ushant problem is solved. I’ve dumped the van and rented an ebike so I can drink myself stupid all day. Sorted
This highlights one of my problems with France, and also its solution. I've enjoyed your little vignettes from your French trip. My problem with France has always been what do you do with it? Granted it has some pretty towns (which seem mostly sleepy and closed, apart from on rare and seemingly arbitrary occasions when they spring joyously to life) and some areas of pretty countryside. But how do you enjoy that? Simply driving from place to place and mooching about isn't much of a holiday, and also removes the #1 attraction of mooching about in France i.e. the possibility of imbibing copiously over a lengthy lunch. (We have done Breton cider previously, but French beer - the stuff they don't export, anyway - is also very good.) The best way to get around seems to be to be cycling. Having done a rudimentary amountof Google maps research this morning in reaction to this thought, France seems littered with attractive looking cycleways by which to get from place to place. And that way you feel you are really IN it, rather than merely getting a view of it from a metal box. I have absolutely no objection to e-bikes as some bike purists seem to - you still get the happy, due to the modicum of effort that you're putting in, of being part of the landscape that you're seeing, rather than just a spectator of it - but you can keep going for much longer. They strike me as splendid things.
Matthew Goodwin started out as well-meaning and interesting academic but he seems to have actually gone down a rabbit hole into believing and now using data to confirm his own biases. Very worrying.
Anyone who knows somebody with dementia as I do would not class Biden as having it.
There are several forms of dementia. They do not all have the same symptoms. My mother's partner had one of the less common ones and in its early stages it wasn't entirely dissimilar to how Biden is presenting.
It's also pretty hard to diagnose for sure.
The cognitive diagnosis tests are pretty useless, dependent on a person's education, engagement in current affairs etc The brain scan where they show the holes developing in the brain doesn't seem too difficult to assess. It's just that they ration the latter, I assume because there's no cure and other demands on the scanners for patients that could be cureable.
I should have added, without physical evidence. Which none of us have access to in this case.
They'll likely have reasonably accurate blood tests for Alzheimer's fairly soon (which is good since any useful treatments are going to have to be trialled in individuals who've no reached the symptomatic stage.
Goodwin's latest polling is out, a representative sample of self-selecting largely GB News watching viewers weighted to better resemble the demographics etc of the general population.
Clicking on the link to the detail via wiki I got this: This site can’t provide a secure connection www.matthewjgoodwin.org uses an unsupported protocol. ERR_SSL_VERSION_OR_CIPHER_MISMATCH
Try the same URL but with http:// instead of https://
I heard some longer clips of Biden on Talk Radio (Not the friendliest of stations to centre-left politicians) and he definitely sounded better than the word salads that have been clipped up online.
A low bar, granted but I don't think there's enough there to oust him and then he can do a COMEBACK debate in September
A comeback debate where there's rock bottom expectations. He has a good one, confounds everyone, and with the election just round the corner. Very very cunning. Dark Brandon or what.
No way on earth Trump will agree to another debate now
Good point. Why would he? He’s now a big favourite and the Democrats are in chaos and panic. Why throw them a potential lifeline?
Goodwin's latest polling is out, a representative sample of self-selecting largely GB News watching viewers weighted to better resemble the demographics etc of the general population.
Clicking on the link to the detail via wiki I got this: This site can’t provide a secure connection www.matthewjgoodwin.org uses an unsupported protocol. ERR_SSL_VERSION_OR_CIPHER_MISMATCH
Try the same URL but with http:// instead of https://
Won't work in the newest browsers. They force HTTPS.
I heard some longer clips of Biden on Talk Radio (Not the friendliest of stations to centre-left politicians) and he definitely sounded better than the word salads that have been clipped up online.
A low bar, granted but I don't think there's enough there to oust him and then he can do a COMEBACK debate in September
A comeback debate where there's rock bottom expectations. He has a good one, confounds everyone, and with the election just round the corner. Very very cunning. Dark Brandon or what.
No way on earth Trump will agree to another debate now
No way would Democrats allow Biden to take part in one either if they nominate him again at their convention
It's not up to "Democrats", if Biden wants to take part in the debate he'll take part in the debate.
Yes, sure, it’s theoretically possible that Channel 4 just *happened* to strike gold by finding a horrendous racist who just HAPPENS to be an actor who just HAPPENS to specialise in the same “rough voice” used in the undercover footage and just HAPPENS to be a Reform supporter.
She’s about two steps from turning into Alex Jones.
He might be a volunteer with a day job as an actor.
What is odd that, assuming both are the same person, he appears to have been "in character" with one of his apparent "rough voice" specialisms while volunteering.
Which is setting off various Klaxons.
What's wrong with treating your default voice as one of the menu options?
The allegation is that his normal voice is "well spoken" and claimed to be as such on his website.
Boom!
Slightly odd that a professional actor would assume he wouldn't be recognised by anyone if he pulled this sort of stunt. This is a very strange story indeed.
And if Biden has to stand down, there will be a strong argument for her becoming president immediately and running as the incumbent.
Wouldn’t Harris’ VP need to be confirmed by both houses of congress - and could the Republicans block the latter? If anything then happened to Harris, the Presidency would fall to the Speaker of the House - the Republican Mike Johnson.
I think on balance it would be better to make her President straight away and have people used to the idea, plus it might give the chance for the Dems to slam the Republicans if they refuse her VP Pick.
I heard some longer clips of Biden on Talk Radio (Not the friendliest of stations to centre-left politicians) and he definitely sounded better than the word salads that have been clipped up online.
A low bar, granted but I don't think there's enough there to oust him and then he can do a COMEBACK debate in September
A comeback debate where there's rock bottom expectations. He has a good one, confounds everyone, and with the election just round the corner. Very very cunning. Dark Brandon or what.
No way on earth Trump will agree to another debate now
No way would Democrats allow Biden to take part in one either if they nominate him again at their convention
It's not up to "Democrats", if Biden wants to take part in the debate he'll take part in the debate.
No, given his mental state they could literally lock him in the basement and decline
The Dems seem to have got themselves into a bit of a pickle...
Mind you not impossible Trump could be in jail in a fortnight in which case both parties would be in chaos
Trump being thrown in jail is the best thing that could happen to the GOP as they could then put the forward a credible candidate like Haley or De Santis.
The problem for the Dems is that even if Biden steps aside it's hard to see who they've got waiting in the wings.
And if Biden has to stand down, there will be a strong argument for her becoming president immediately and running as the incumbent.
Wouldn’t Harris’ VP need to be confirmed by both houses of congress - and could the Republicans block the latter? If anything then happened to Harris, the Presidency would fall to the Speaker of the House - the Republican Mike Johnson.
I think on balance it would be better to make her President straight away and have people used to the idea, plus it might give the chance for the Dems to slam the Republicans if they refuse her VP Pick.
Only after confirmation in January would Congress get involved on a Veep.
Until then, the Electoral College determines.
Theoretically if Biden continues to run and wins, then drops dead in December and Harris dies in an accident too in December, then Biden's electors would be entitled to pick a new, Democrat, President and Veep without Congress getting involved other than the formality of recognising that the electoral college has voted.
Comments
In my diet 20g/day of carbs is the maximum recommended daily allowance and I completely agree with your picture that most of my daily carbs come from milk (in coffee mainly, I've long done my scrambled eggs milkless).
The general advice for people on my diet is to keep carbs below 20g then you don't need to worry about calories too much, just eat when you're hungry. You won't end up overeating if you're not consuming the carbs as you won't be hungry.
I tried substituting my milk for other things when I first started the diet but I didn't enjoy them, so dropped it as a concept. You need to find something that you enjoy so I'm happy to give my carb allowance over to milk.
West of Shetlands is worse. The weather funnels between Shetland/Faroes/Iceland/Greenland and that causes hurricane force winds on a regular basis. And unlike the Gulf where they get real hurricanes and downman in advance, we don't do that. We just sit it out. It is uncomfortble in the extreme with rig heaves of 6-10m being regular. That is the rig moving up and down by that much over a period of 30-60 seconds. But generally it is not life threatening. It is just the fact that you know it has been life threatening at times that adds the element of uncertainty.
I think the problem with the OGW was and is that she is just too big for a floater. She is the largest semi-sub in the world. I have spenta lot of time on smaller semis West of Shetlands over the years and they ride the storms. The OGW sits there and lets the storm batter it. Hence I think the failure that took it out.
There may be some scope for VP pick.
Really sorry to hear that about your mum. That's a sad thing we have in common. Mine has it too and it's awful. Do I think this gives me the ability to diagnose it in Joe Biden? No, I don't. Why? Because it doesn't. All that can reasonably be diagnosed by either you or me is a case of "too frail to run again and shouldn't".
https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/news/derby-news/derby-man-confused-nigel-farage-9370291
The bloke is a singer/actor who was paid to do this. He's been paid to do a couple of impersonations of Farage over the years. He told me that people organised it to get more views of their 'media empire'
Number one prediction though is that the SNP will not 'win' Scotland, but will also claim that the vote is not a a rejection of independence.
Take him out of the race, give him time to "recover" outside the spotlight?
Unfortunately perhaps his performance was not bad enough for him to be replaced as candidate, but bad enough (if continued) to hand the election to Trump.
If this is what it is being insinuated it is, then it is going to backfire very bigly.
We of course also have Trump's sentencing a few days before the GOP convention too, now while unlikely if the judge is annoyed by Trump's lack of remorse he could jail him. Which would mean absolute chaos for both parties
The related point is that if she wants to avoid getting switched out for Whitmer/Buttigeig/KLOBUCHAR/Oprah, all she has to do is filibuster.
I still don't see it happening, though, not least because Harris would have to get out of the way.
As I’ve said my mother AND her husband are both formally diagnosed with dementia (which is a weird kind of blessing I think, in the circs). So I see it painfully close and it is quite distressing (so I have great sympathy for people close to Biden, unless they are enabling him to stay on - then they are dangerous fools)
My mum’s dementia is nothing like Biden’s. Her symptoms are constant repetition of stories and phrases and forgetting names/identities entirely. She often thinks I am her grandson
But physically if you looked at her (and didn’t listen) you might not even guess she is demented. However her husband is entirely different and with him there are many more physical symptoms - the vague staring, the bewildered face, the odd rictus smile, plus he wanders off for no reason - also his speech is incoherent gibberish quite a lot of the time. He REALLY resembles Biden
A very sad state of affairs. Tho there is seriously promising medicine in the works - for dementia - AIUI. Too late for Biden or my mum tho
https://x.com/southy_boy/status/1806621419956039959
Much rougher ride than he’s used to…..
Trump if he had a bad night though could easily push it in a strop against some foreign leader's capital who infuriated him unless the generals and his Cabinet talked him out of it
What is clear is that he's too frail to campaign for a 2nd term or to serve one if he won.
What is odd that, assuming both are the same person, he appears to have been "in character" with one of his apparent "rough voice" specialisms while volunteering.
Which is setting off various Klaxons.
When people are being polled they’re not being asked about a President Harris vs Trump. They’re being asked about a gaffe-prone VP who hasn’t been given much to do vs Trump.
If KH is elevated to the Presidency that reset button is pressed. She has a window to then try to show she is competent, calm, coherent and presidential. It is a painfully short window. But it is not inconceivable that she could succeed.
I have said before that KH is a better politician than people give her credit for. She does not come across well in her current job - which I don’t think, charitably, is for her. The Presidency is something completely different though.
The brain scan where they show the holes developing in the brain doesn't seem too difficult to assess. It's just that they ration the latter, I assume because there's no cure and other demands on the scanners for patients that could be cureable.
From the Tories too.
Wagergate effect, I'd guess. Right at the outset, I'd jokingly said maybe this is the one election where we get used to the concept of 'swingaway' replacing 'swingback'. I didn't expect it to be true,
*Unless we are heading for a worse polling disaster than 1992 etc
Boom!
https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1806367143564280056
Its been a neverending pile of shite from the Tories campaign.
I believe it was @Casino_Royale who put it best the other day when he said at this point he could shit in his hands and clap and it would be more appealing than this campaign.
Its only fears of Labour I think that are keeping him and others voting Tory still.
Yankson describes how he missed out on Selby due to “an inside job” before immediately coming runner up in Kingston upon Hull West – which Yankson says he knows nothing about (“is it twinned with New York?“). Eventually he describes that he got a call: “so can you come to Southampton, someone has pulled out? I said alright, so I went to Southampton.” Ruminating on why his attempts had kept failing Yankson says “I looked at my CV and said, you’re basically crap, that’s why you’re not in the final three.” In a seat with a Conservative majority of 4,498 he might need to find some self-esteem before Thursday…
https://order-order.com/2024/06/28/tory-candidate-mocks-selection-process-for-putting-him-in-battleground-seat/
Trump: 43%
Biden: 22%
Not Sure: 35%
Jesus 35% don't know? That suggests Trump is a joke.
https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/1806642599718981999
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42549687
Andrew Neil
@afneil
I write in this piece that senior Democrats have long been hoping Jill Biden would have a quiet word in her husband’s ear about pulling out of the race. But that the First Lady likes her position too much to do that. After the way she congratulated Biden post-debate — much as a mother would a child — it looks for now as if nothing has changed. But pressure for him to quit from Democrats will reach fever pitch this weekend.
https://x.com/afneil/status/1806625500619575560
Keiran Pedley
@keiranpedley
Worst case scenario for Dems now is they all agree Biden should step aside and he doesn’t.
https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1806582250479181931
I'd guess the Sky TV thing was more impactful, probably the fourth most significant thing after D-Day, Farage/Reform and then the betting.
There's also been a constant drumbeat of minor gaffes, and an entire gaffe sub-genre called 'Rishi Looks A Tit'.
Clicking on the link to the detail via wiki I got this:
This site can’t provide a secure connection www.matthewjgoodwin.org uses an unsupported protocol.
ERR_SSL_VERSION_OR_CIPHER_MISMATCH
What are the cycling laws in France regarding drinking and cycling?
We’re often asked by our cycling holiday guests about drinking laws and bikes. Well, cycling laws in France are the same as for motorists in this respect with similar penalties. If you are blind drunk and causing a danger to others you’ll be paying a fine – so don’t over-do your wine-tasting! In fact the official limit for a cyclist is between 0.25 and 0.4 mg/l of exhaled air when taking a breath test. The fine for being under the influence of alcohol is €135.
https://www.loirelifecycling.com/cycling-laws-in-france/
It must be very difficult for her right now. But she has to think of the country.
I've enjoyed your little vignettes from your French trip. My problem with France has always been what do you do with it? Granted it has some pretty towns (which seem mostly sleepy and closed, apart from on rare and seemingly arbitrary occasions when they spring joyously to life) and some areas of pretty countryside. But how do you enjoy that? Simply driving from place to place and mooching about isn't much of a holiday, and also removes the #1 attraction of mooching about in France i.e. the possibility of imbibing copiously over a lengthy lunch. (We have done Breton cider previously, but French beer - the stuff they don't export, anyway - is also very good.)
The best way to get around seems to be to be cycling. Having done a rudimentary amountof Google maps research this morning in reaction to this thought, France seems littered with attractive looking cycleways by which to get from place to place. And that way you feel you are really IN it, rather than merely getting a view of it from a metal box.
I have absolutely no objection to e-bikes as some bike purists seem to - you still get the happy, due to the modicum of effort that you're putting in, of being part of the landscape that you're seeing, rather than just a spectator of it - but you can keep going for much longer. They strike me as splendid things.
Which none of us have access to in this case.
They'll likely have reasonably accurate blood tests for Alzheimer's fairly soon (which is good since any useful treatments are going to have to be trialled in individuals who've no reached the symptomatic stage.
On a vaguely related note, this is quite remarkable - the near term possibility of a treatment for prion disease (like, for example, CJD).
https://x.com/EricTopol/status/1806436630120821246
Not for political reasons, but if he's too ill to serve he shouldn't do the next eight months until inauguration day, he should go now.
Be better in hindsight if it had happened before last night.
I think on balance it would be better to make her President straight away and have people used to the idea, plus it might give the chance for the Dems to slam the Republicans if they refuse her VP Pick.
The problem for the Dems is that even if Biden steps aside it's hard to see who they've got waiting in the wings.
Until then, the Electoral College determines.
Theoretically if Biden continues to run and wins, then drops dead in December and Harris dies in an accident too in December, then Biden's electors would be entitled to pick a new, Democrat, President and Veep without Congress getting involved other than the formality of recognising that the electoral college has voted.