Buttigieg is a practicing Anglican, a habit he picked up at Oxford, which surely should make him PB’s preferred Democrat runner.
Buttigieg is currently offered at 999/1 on the Betfair Exchange. Now I know there is no love lost between Biden's Gov't and the UK, but those odds are ridiculous!
I heard some longer clips of Biden on Talk Radio (Not the friendliest of stations to centre-left politicians) and he definitely sounded better than the word salads that have been clipped up online.
A low bar, granted but I don't think there's enough there to oust him and then he can do a COMEBACK debate in September
A comeback debate where there's rock bottom expectations. He has a good one, confounds everyone, and with the election just round the corner. Very very cunning. Dark Brandon or what.
No way on earth Trump will agree to another debate now
No way would Democrats allow Biden to take part in one either if they nominate him again at their convention
It's not up to "Democrats", if Biden wants to take part in the debate he'll take part in the debate.
No, given his mental state they could literally lock him in the basement and decline
Did you watch the debate? He knows what's going on, he correctly listed lots of policies and understood what's being said. He's perfectly capable of telling the secret service guys to let him out of this basement.
My ushant problem is solved. I’ve dumped the van and rented an ebike so I can drink myself stupid all day. Sorted
Up to a point, Lord Copper
What are the cycling laws in France regarding drinking and cycling?
We’re often asked by our cycling holiday guests about drinking laws and bikes. Well, cycling laws in France are the same as for motorists in this respect with similar penalties. If you are blind drunk and causing a danger to others you’ll be paying a fine – so don’t over-do your wine-tasting! In fact the official limit for a cyclist is between 0.25 and 0.4 mg/l of exhaled air when taking a breath test. The fine for being under the influence of alcohol is €135.
The Dems seem to have got themselves into a bit of a pickle...
Mind you not impossible Trump could be in jail in a fortnight in which case both parties would be in chaos
Trump being thrown in jail is the best thing that could happen to the GOP as they could then put the forward a credible candidate like Haley or De Santis.
The problem for the Dems is that even if Biden steps aside it's hard to see who they've got waiting in the wings.
I don't think throwing Trump in jail would either stop Trump from running for president or stop his delegates from voting for him.
I think people forget just how hierarchical the Democratic party is. If Biden needs to step aside, it's surely surely Harris at this point as VP given Newsom, Obama and all the other Betfair favourites never entered the race in the first place.
This is so bad it goes beyond sad into funny. Sorry if that is cruel but it is tragically funny. This is like a parody sketch of a senile President but it is real
On a more positive note for Democrat despairers - or anyone in Ukraine - here’s Newsom looking decisive and ruthless. And very articulate. I know he has a lot of woke baggage and California is a barren wasteland but still. These are hard times
Given recent events on PB perhaps this isn’t the best place to throw insults about dementia or make amateur guesses about dementia when you’re not qualified to do so.
We all, of course, see your point - but how else do we discuss last night? If we aren’t allowed to use these words? Everyone in the American media is now openly using them - even the Biden friendly media
Doddery, old, slow, forgetful - plenty of words to use other than dementia.
To be honest the clips I've seen remind me of my late grandad, who did not have dementia but who was increasingly slow and forgetful and could lose his place more easily.
Dementia is something different and although I didn't watch the debate I've seen no signs of that in any of the debates, I just see a frail old man who is past it.
I’ve seen dementia up close and personal. My poor mother has it now, and her husband has it too (I thank god they are sinking together)
He in particular exhibits all the behaviours we see in Biden. The vacant staring. The incoherent speech. The wandering off. Some of it is identical
However I’ve no wish to upset the mods and if @TSE and @rcs would prefer us to use different words that’s fine and I will obey. The point is made, anyway
The 'point' is that you are (1) clueless about dementia and (2) cheap and nasty enough to be forever spreading Trumpist propaganda and gloating whenever anything happens that you think improves his chances of becoming President again.
And it is indeed made. It's been made for quite some time tbf.
Yes, I am “clueless” about dementia apart from the fact that my mother has it, as does her husband, and I was there when she was formally diagnosed by the dementia nurse (along with her husband) and we spent an afternoon discussing - with the nurse - what this meant, why she had this diagnosis, what the prognosis was (not great) and so on
Apart from that I have no experience of it at all and I am obviously unable to see it in others
You know, sometimes I forgive you your inane commentary because you’re not very sharp. But occasionally I realise you’re not just a bit dim, you are also quite inadequate as a human being
I see right through you, I'm afraid, esp when it comes to this US stuff.
Really sorry to hear that about your mum. That's a sad thing we have in common. Mine has it too and it's awful. Do I think this gives me the ability to diagnose it in Joe Biden? No, I don't. Why? Because it doesn't. All that can reasonably be diagnosed by either you or me is a case of "too frail to run again and shouldn't".
Yeah whatever. You claimed I know nothing about dementia after reading a comment where I told you that my mother has dementia. You’re just an arsehole
Oh do stop it. I wish your mum all the best but it gives you no special insight to diagnose Joe Biden. If it did I'd have it too, wouldn't I?, what with my mum and all. The difference is I know it doesn't and I don't press a close family member's health problems into the service of ramping my preferred political outcomes.
You've been bloviating about "demented" Biden for ages, linking to clips purporting to prove it, most of which have been doctored, misleading or out of context. I mean, c'mon. It's just embarrassing to be pretending that this is some sincere and considered medical opinion based on your own experience.
But thanks for the insult anyway. Quite gratifying. Because the moment you stop thinking I'm an arsehole is the moment I start to fret.
I heard some longer clips of Biden on Talk Radio (Not the friendliest of stations to centre-left politicians) and he definitely sounded better than the word salads that have been clipped up online.
A low bar, granted but I don't think there's enough there to oust him and then he can do a COMEBACK debate in September
People who listened to NixonVsKennedy on the radio thought Nixon won. Visuals are important.
Just looking at the last week's polling - is this the first week we've had where a majority of polls have had the Tories under 20%?
Wagergate effect, I'd guess. Right at the outset, I'd jokingly said maybe this is the one election where we get used to the concept of 'swingaway' replacing 'swingback'. I didn't expect it to be true,
From National Service, to D-Day, to wagergate.
Its been a neverending pile of shite from the Tories campaign.
I believe it was @Casino_Royale who put it best the other day when he said at this point he could shit in his hands and clap and it would be more appealing than this campaign.
Its only fears of Labour I think that are keeping him and others voting Tory still.
Oh dear that reminds me of the Coen Brothers' Raising Arizona in which an OTT character tells a joke about a guy who walks into a shop with shit in his hands and says "look what I might have trodden in". At least Rishi hasn't done that. But watching/reading the depressing voxpops /constituency reports I sometimes wonder what he would have to do to stop some people voting Tory.
My ushant problem is solved. I’ve dumped the van and rented an ebike so I can drink myself stupid all day. Sorted
Up to a point, Lord Copper
What are the cycling laws in France regarding drinking and cycling?
We’re often asked by our cycling holiday guests about drinking laws and bikes. Well, cycling laws in France are the same as for motorists in this respect with similar penalties. If you are blind drunk and causing a danger to others you’ll be paying a fine – so don’t over-do your wine-tasting! In fact the official limit for a cyclist is between 0.25 and 0.4 mg/l of exhaled air when taking a breath test. The fine for being under the influence of alcohol is €135.
I see a scenario coming up, similar to the night before Thatcher resigned.
Major and Heseltine polled far better than Thatcher v Kinnock in 1990, no alternative Democrat does v Trump compared to Biden so that is not a valid comparison
The Dems seem to have got themselves into a bit of a pickle...
Mind you not impossible Trump could be in jail in a fortnight in which case both parties would be in chaos
Trump being thrown in jail is the best thing that could happen to the GOP as they could then put the forward a credible candidate like Haley or De Santis.
The problem for the Dems is that even if Biden steps aside it's hard to see who they've got waiting in the wings.
I don't think throwing Trump in jail would either stop Trump from running for president or stop his delegates from voting for him.
Yup, Trump would run from jail or go independent if the GOP elite tried to fiddle the convention to nominate someone else
And if Biden has to stand down, there will be a strong argument for her becoming president immediately and running as the incumbent.
Wouldn’t Harris’ VP need to be confirmed by both houses of congress - and could the Republicans block the latter? If anything then happened to Harris, the Presidency would fall to the Speaker of the House - the Republican Mike Johnson.
I think on balance it would be better to make her President straight away and have people used to the idea, plus it might give the chance for the Dems to slam the Republicans if they refuse her VP Pick.
She can accede to the presidency now (see Nixon->Ford), be POTUS47 for four months without a veep, then her pick as Veep will be elected with her in November if she is elected. A president doesn't have to have a veep (see Truman 45-49) and there's no need to get congress involved
Just looking at the last week's polling - is this the first week we've had where a majority of polls have had the Tories under 20%?
Wagergate effect, I'd guess. Right at the outset, I'd jokingly said maybe this is the one election where we get used to the concept of 'swingaway' replacing 'swingback'. I didn't expect it to be true,
From National Service, to D-Day, to wagergate.
Its been a neverending pile of shite from the Tories campaign.
I believe it was @Casino_Royale who put it best the other day when he said at this point he could shit in his hands and clap and it would be more appealing than this campaign.
Its only fears of Labour I think that are keeping him and others voting Tory still.
- people over 35 account for 57% of England's renters (up from 49% in 2013) - prediction that demand from the over 35s will increase eightfold by 2030 - rents rose by a record 9.2% annually in March of this year - rents are 'unaffordable' for 30% of workers (as defgined as spending more than 30% of gross pay on rent)
So things are bad now, and if you believe that eightfold rise in demand by 2030 - even if you only believe it's half that - things are going to be immeasurably worse for the next generation who are likely to be 'renters for life' with all that entails both as adults, and being able to support yourself in old age.
For their failure to sort out the housing market alone, the Conservatives deserve to be out of office.
I see a scenario coming up, similar to the night before Thatcher resigned.
Major and Heseltine polled far better than Thatcher v Kinnock in 1990, no alternative Democrat does v Trump compared to Biden so that is not a valid comparison
Given recent events on PB perhaps this isn’t the best place to throw insults about dementia or make amateur guesses about dementia when you’re not qualified to do so.
We all, of course, see your point - but how else do we discuss last night? If we aren’t allowed to use these words? Everyone in the American media is now openly using them - even the Biden friendly media
Doddery, old, slow, forgetful - plenty of words to use other than dementia.
To be honest the clips I've seen remind me of my late grandad, who did not have dementia but who was increasingly slow and forgetful and could lose his place more easily.
Dementia is something different and although I didn't watch the debate I've seen no signs of that in any of the debates, I just see a frail old man who is past it.
I’ve seen dementia up close and personal. My poor mother has it now, and her husband has it too (I thank god they are sinking together)
He in particular exhibits all the behaviours we see in Biden. The vacant staring. The incoherent speech. The wandering off. Some of it is identical
However I’ve no wish to upset the mods and if @TSE and @rcs would prefer us to use different words that’s fine and I will obey. The point is made, anyway
The 'point' is that you are (1) clueless about dementia and (2) cheap and nasty enough to be forever spreading Trumpist propaganda and gloating whenever anything happens that you think improves his chances of becoming President again.
And it is indeed made. It's been made for quite some time tbf.
Yes, I am “clueless” about dementia apart from the fact that my mother has it, as does her husband, and I was there when she was formally diagnosed by the dementia nurse (along with her husband) and we spent an afternoon discussing - with the nurse - what this meant, why she had this diagnosis, what the prognosis was (not great) and so on
Apart from that I have no experience of it at all and I am obviously unable to see it in others
You know, sometimes I forgive you your inane commentary because you’re not very sharp. But occasionally I realise you’re not just a bit dim, you are also quite inadequate as a human being
I see right through you, I'm afraid, esp when it comes to this US stuff.
Really sorry to hear that about your mum. That's a sad thing we have in common. Mine has it too and it's awful. Do I think this gives me the ability to diagnose it in Joe Biden? No, I don't. Why? Because it doesn't. All that can reasonably be diagnosed by either you or me is a case of "too frail to run again and shouldn't".
Yeah whatever. You claimed I know nothing about dementia after reading a comment where I told you that my mother has dementia. You’re just an arsehole
Oh do stop it. I wish your mum all the best but it gives you no special insight to diagnose Joe Biden. If it did I'd have it too, wouldn't I?, what with my mum and all. The difference is I know it doesn't and I don't press a close family member's health problems into the service of ramping my preferred political outcomes.
You've been bloviating about "demented" Biden for ages, linking to clips purporting to prove it, most of which have been doctored, misleading or out of context. I mean, c'mon. It's just embarrassing to be pretending that this is some sincere and considered medical opinion based on your own experience.
But thanks for the insult anyway. Quite gratifying. Because the moment you stop thinking I'm an arsehole is the moment I start to fret.
I’ll say one more thing then I suggest we end this unedifying spat. I don’t want to lose my temper. I am in a benign mood e-biking around Ushant. And I offer you sincere sympathies on your own mother
I’ve been saying for about 18 months - at least - that Biden is in steep cognitive decline. And that this would obviously get worse - that’s what it does. And that this could easily be catastrophic for the democrats
Now, if I was really some secret Trump supporter, why would I do that? Surely I’d stay quiet and let the democrats make their enormous lying blunder so Trump can win?
But I didn’t do that because I’m not a Trump supporter. It would be bad if he won. Maybe slightly amusing in a nihilistic way - but really bad.
Moreover, I say what I see. I tell the truth and I extrapolate from the facts before me. And here is another example of where I got it right and an awful lot of PBers got it wrong
And that’s my final word with you on this topic for today. I’m off on my ebike. E-bikes are so cool and this island is like Enid Blyton meets Wagner
And if Biden has to stand down, there will be a strong argument for her becoming president immediately and running as the incumbent.
Wouldn’t Harris’ VP need to be confirmed by both houses of congress - and could the Republicans block the latter? If anything then happened to Harris, the Presidency would fall to the Speaker of the House - the Republican Mike Johnson.
I think on balance it would be better to make her President straight away and have people used to the idea, plus it might give the chance for the Dems to slam the Republicans if they refuse her VP Pick.
Only after confirmation in January would Congress get involved on a Veep.
Until then, the Electoral College determines.
Theoretically if Biden continues to run and wins, then drops dead in December and Harris dies in an accident too in December, then Biden's electors would be entitled to pick a new, Democrat, President and Veep without Congress getting involved other than the formality of recognising that the electoral college has voted.
I think they are referring to confirmation of a VP if a new one was needed now. However, I’m not sure if the post requires congressional approval anyway.
All this reminds me of the early 80s when the soviets went through a series of aged general secretaries before landing on Gorbachev. The last days of the boomer generation.
There needs to be a shift to the folks in the 40-60.
And if Biden has to stand down, there will be a strong argument for her becoming president immediately and running as the incumbent.
Wouldn’t Harris’ VP need to be confirmed by both houses of congress - and could the Republicans block the latter? If anything then happened to Harris, the Presidency would fall to the Speaker of the House - the Republican Mike Johnson.
I think on balance it would be better to make her President straight away and have people used to the idea, plus it might give the chance for the Dems to slam the Republicans if they refuse her VP Pick.
Only after confirmation in January would Congress get involved on a Veep.
Until then, the Electoral College determines.
Theoretically if Biden continues to run and wins, then drops dead in December and Harris dies in an accident too in December, then Biden's electors would be entitled to pick a new, Democrat, President and Veep without Congress getting involved other than the formality of recognising that the electoral college has voted.
I think they are referring to confirmation of a VP if a new one was needed now. However, I’m not sure if the post requires congressional approval anyway.
Yes, approval is necessary in the event of a mid-term appointment.
Section 2 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment provides that "whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress."
Biden is out to 5.7 on betfair. Anyone else think the market is overreacting?
It was over 6 earlier this morning, so evidently yes.
But it's both reasonably likely that he'll be replaced, and if he does run, reasonably likely that he'd lose, so around 9/2 isn't a massive overreaction in what's now a very volatile situation.
Just looking at the last week's polling - is this the first week we've had where a majority of polls have had the Tories under 20%?
Wagergate effect, I'd guess. Right at the outset, I'd jokingly said maybe this is the one election where we get used to the concept of 'swingaway' replacing 'swingback'. I didn't expect it to be true,
Latest polls from each firm (of which there are 18) Below 20% Techne Redfield & Wilton YouGov Survation Deltapoll Ipsos Whitestone Insight People Polling Lord Ashcroft At 20% BMG Opinium Above 20% More in Common Norstat JL Partners Savanta Verian We Think Focaldata
There were only seven polls putting the Tories below 20% in the whole of 2024 before the election was called. The Tory campaign has been lamentable. Really poor.
Biden is out to 5.7 on beftair. Anyone else think the market is overreacting?
I don't know. We've never had an obviously senile President running for a second term. We have Grandpa Simpson vs a billionaire rapist with a combover. You tell me how to price this.
Buttigieg is a practicing Anglican, a habit he picked up at Oxford, which surely should make him PB’s preferred Democrat runner.
Hardly, given apart from me and Cyclefree and a handful of others most on here are not practicing Anglicans
(FWIW, you can count me in!)
Adsum. They just merge into the landscape in Cumberland from the moment someone leaned against Hadrian's Wall in about 180 AD on the 15th evening and sang Psalm 78 to a quadruple chant.
Anyone who knows somebody with dementia as I do would not class Biden as having it.
There are several forms of dementia. They do not all have the same symptoms. My mother's partner had one of the less common ones and in its early stages it wasn't entirely dissimilar to how Biden is presenting.
Yes
As I’ve said my mother AND her husband are both formally diagnosed with dementia (which is a weird kind of blessing I think, in the circs). So I see it painfully close and it is quite distressing (so I have great sympathy for people close to Biden, unless they are enabling him to stay on - then they are dangerous fools)
My mum’s dementia is nothing like Biden’s. Her symptoms are constant repetition of stories and phrases and forgetting names/identities entirely. She often thinks I am her grandson
But physically if you looked at her (and didn’t listen) you might not even guess she is demented. However her husband is entirely different and with him there are many more physical symptoms - the vague staring, the bewildered face, the odd rictus smile, plus he wanders off for no reason - also his speech is incoherent gibberish quite a lot of the time. He REALLY resembles Biden
A very sad state of affairs. Tho there is seriously promising medicine in the works - for dementia - AIUI. Too late for Biden or my mum tho
Yes, with dementia the symptoms and rates of decline can vary a great deal. Joe Biden might well be in the early stages of a form of it but it's not possible for us to say. We can neither diagnose it nor rule it out. Point is, he looks too frail either to campaign effectively or to serve a 2nd term.
I see a scenario coming up, similar to the night before Thatcher resigned.
Major and Heseltine polled far better than Thatcher v Kinnock in 1990, no alternative Democrat does v Trump compared to Biden so that is not a valid comparison
Newsom has Heseltine's hair.
And Hillary Clinton's ideology and support and as much common touch as Macron does at the moment
Biden is out to 5.7 on beftair. Anyone else think the market is overreacting?
I don't know. We've never had an obviously senile President running for a second term. We have Grandpa Simpson vs a billionaire rapist with a combover. You tell me how to price this.
Having watched a lot of Simpsons, I can safely say that the answer is donuts......hmmmmm....donuts
Holding a presidential debate before the conventions is quite wierd, and certainly very early. It is also much easier to change the candidate before the convention than after it.
I'm speculating that a few senior Dems and/or Whitehouse Aides encouraged Biden to hold a debate this early. Early enough to show that Biden really is fit enough to run for president again, ... or not.
And if Biden has to stand down, there will be a strong argument for her becoming president immediately and running as the incumbent.
Wouldn’t Harris’ VP need to be confirmed by both houses of congress - and could the Republicans block the latter? If anything then happened to Harris, the Presidency would fall to the Speaker of the House - the Republican Mike Johnson.
I think on balance it would be better to make her President straight away and have people used to the idea, plus it might give the chance for the Dems to slam the Republicans if they refuse her VP Pick.
Only after confirmation in January would Congress get involved on a Veep.
Until then, the Electoral College determines.
Theoretically if Biden continues to run and wins, then drops dead in December and Harris dies in an accident too in December, then Biden's electors would be entitled to pick a new, Democrat, President and Veep without Congress getting involved other than the formality of recognising that the electoral college has voted.
I think they are referring to confirmation of a VP if a new one was needed now. However, I’m not sure if the post requires congressional approval anyway.
Yes, approval is necessary in the event of a mid-term appointment.
Section 2 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment provides that "whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress."
Does it impose a time element? She could have a pocket veto.
Biden is out to 5.7 on beftair. Anyone else think the market is overreacting?
I don't know. We've never had an obviously senile President running for a second term. We have Grandpa Simpson vs a billionaire rapist with a combover. You tell me how to price this.
On the first part, I presume you're joking. Ronald Reagan was already in decline in 1984.
Biden is out to 5.7 on beftair. Anyone else think the market is overreacting?
No, a Rubicon has been crossed and now Democrats are openly talking about replacing him.
Last night has sealed his fate.
Its sad as he's actually been a decent President and had he retired with grace, he'd have had a good legacy.
I suspect 5.7 is an overreaction - the power of incumbency and the lack of a clear alternative makes it less than an even chance. About 4 feels about right, covering both the risk of being replaced and the risk of being defeated by Trump.
Given recent events on PB perhaps this isn’t the best place to throw insults about dementia or make amateur guesses about dementia when you’re not qualified to do so.
We all, of course, see your point - but how else do we discuss last night? If we aren’t allowed to use these words? Everyone in the American media is now openly using them - even the Biden friendly media
Doddery, old, slow, forgetful - plenty of words to use other than dementia.
To be honest the clips I've seen remind me of my late grandad, who did not have dementia but who was increasingly slow and forgetful and could lose his place more easily.
Dementia is something different and although I didn't watch the debate I've seen no signs of that in any of the debates, I just see a frail old man who is past it.
I’ve seen dementia up close and personal. My poor mother has it now, and her husband has it too (I thank god they are sinking together)
He in particular exhibits all the behaviours we see in Biden. The vacant staring. The incoherent speech. The wandering off. Some of it is identical
However I’ve no wish to upset the mods and if @TSE and @rcs would prefer us to use different words that’s fine and I will obey. The point is made, anyway
The 'point' is that you are (1) clueless about dementia and (2) cheap and nasty enough to be forever spreading Trumpist propaganda and gloating whenever anything happens that you think improves his chances of becoming President again.
And it is indeed made. It's been made for quite some time tbf.
Yes, I am “clueless” about dementia apart from the fact that my mother has it, as does her husband, and I was there when she was formally diagnosed by the dementia nurse (along with her husband) and we spent an afternoon discussing - with the nurse - what this meant, why she had this diagnosis, what the prognosis was (not great) and so on
Apart from that I have no experience of it at all and I am obviously unable to see it in others
You know, sometimes I forgive you your inane commentary because you’re not very sharp. But occasionally I realise you’re not just a bit dim, you are also quite inadequate as a human being
I see right through you, I'm afraid, esp when it comes to this US stuff.
Really sorry to hear that about your mum. That's a sad thing we have in common. Mine has it too and it's awful. Do I think this gives me the ability to diagnose it in Joe Biden? No, I don't. Why? Because it doesn't. All that can reasonably be diagnosed by either you or me is a case of "too frail to run again and shouldn't".
Yeah whatever. You claimed I know nothing about dementia after reading a comment where I told you that my mother has dementia. You’re just an arsehole
Oh do stop it. I wish your mum all the best but it gives you no special insight to diagnose Joe Biden. If it did I'd have it too, wouldn't I?, what with my mum and all. The difference is I know it doesn't and I don't press a close family member's health problems into the service of ramping my preferred political outcomes.
You've been bloviating about "demented" Biden for ages, linking to clips purporting to prove it, most of which have been doctored, misleading or out of context. I mean, c'mon. It's just embarrassing to be pretending that this is some sincere and considered medical opinion based on your own experience.
But thanks for the insult anyway. Quite gratifying. Because the moment you stop thinking I'm an arsehole is the moment I start to fret.
I’ll say one more thing then I suggest we end this unedifying spat. I don’t want to lose my temper. I am in a benign mood e-biking around Ushant. And I offer you sincere sympathies on your own mother
I’ve been saying for about 18 months - at least - that Biden is in steep cognitive decline. And that this would obviously get worse - that’s what it does. And that this could easily be catastrophic for the democrats
Now, if I was really some secret Trump supporter, why would I do that? Surely I’d stay quiet and let the democrats make their enormous lying blunder so Trump can win?
But I didn’t do that because I’m not a Trump supporter. It would be bad if he won. Maybe slightly amusing in a nihilistic way - but really bad.
Moreover, I say what I see. I tell the truth and I extrapolate from the facts before me. And here is another example of where I got it right and an awful lot of PBers got it wrong
And that’s my final word with you on this topic for today. I’m off on my ebike. E-bikes are so cool and this island is like Enid Blyton meets Wagner
Ok. And I do accept that your better self is not rooting for a Trump win. It's just that your better self is not very big sometimes. It's there, no question, but it spends a lot of time cowering under the sofa.
Just looking at the last week's polling - is this the first week we've had where a majority of polls have had the Tories under 20%?
Wagergate effect, I'd guess. Right at the outset, I'd jokingly said maybe this is the one election where we get used to the concept of 'swingaway' replacing 'swingback'. I didn't expect it to be true,
Latest polls from each firm (of which there are 18) Below 20% Techne Redfield & Wilton YouGov Survation Deltapoll Ipsos Whitestone Insight People Polling Lord Ashcroft At 20% BMG Opinium Above 20% More in Common Norstat JL Partners Savanta Verian We Think Focaldata
There were only seven polls putting the Tories below 20% in the whole of 2024 before the election was called. The Tory campaign has been lamentable. Really poor.
I think there comes a point where incompetence ceases to be an explanation. I think the Conservatives' campaign is being run by supporters of Labour and Reform.
Holding a presidential debate before the conventions is quite wierd, and certainly very early. It is also much easier to change the candidate before the convention than after it.
I'm speculating that a few senior Dems and/or Whitehouse Aides encouraged Biden to hold a debate this early. Early enough to show that Biden really is fit enough to run for president again, ... or not.
That is a plausible theory. Because they obviously all know that he’s gaga. That analyst’s report on his mental state was not “made up Republican propaganda” - as some on here stupidly claimed. It was a calm statement of the facts
But how do you get a stubborn doddering President with a crazy wife to step aside? You show him to the world so the pressure to step aside becomes overwhelming
All this reminds me of the early 80s when the soviets went through a series of aged general secretaries before landing on Gorbachev. The last days of the boomer generation.
There needs to be a shift to the folks in the 40-60.
Like Rishi Sunak, Nigel Farage or Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer?
🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 22 points in our latest poll for The National. Con 20% (+1) Lab 42%(-1) Lib Dem 11% (-2) Reform 17% (+2) SNP 3% (+1) Green 4% (-1) Other 2%(-) Fieldwork: 24th to 26th June 2024
Biden is out to 5.7 on beftair. Anyone else think the market is overreacting?
I don't know. We've never had an obviously senile President running for a second term. We have Grandpa Simpson vs a billionaire rapist with a combover. You tell me how to price this.
On the first part, I presume you're joking. Ronald Reagan was already in decline in 1984.
Possibly so, but he clearly wasn't as gone as Biden is. From Wiki:
In the next debate on October 21, however, in response to a question from journalist Henry Trewhitt about his age, Reagan joked, "I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience." Mondale himself laughed at the joke, and later admitted that Reagan had effectively neutralized the age issue:
If TV can tell the truth, as you say it can, you'll see that I was smiling. But I think if you come in close, you'll see some tears coming down because I knew he had gotten me there. That was really the end of my campaign that night, I think. [I told my wife] the campaign was over, and it was.
🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 22 points in our latest poll for The National. Con 20% (+1) Lab 42%(-1) Lib Dem 11% (-2) Reform 17% (+2) SNP 3% (+1) Green 4% (-1) Other 2%(-) Fieldwork: 24th to 26th June 2024
Biden is out to 5.7 on beftair. Anyone else think the market is overreacting?
I don't know. We've never had an obviously senile President running for a second term. We have Grandpa Simpson vs a billionaire rapist with a combover. You tell me how to price this.
On the first part, I presume you're joking. Ronald Reagan was already in decline in 1984.
Just looking at the last week's polling - is this the first week we've had where a majority of polls have had the Tories under 20%?
Wagergate effect, I'd guess. Right at the outset, I'd jokingly said maybe this is the one election where we get used to the concept of 'swingaway' replacing 'swingback'. I didn't expect it to be true,
From National Service, to D-Day, to wagergate.
Its been a neverending pile of shite from the Tories campaign.
I believe it was @Casino_Royale who put it best the other day when he said at this point he could shit in his hands and clap and it would be more appealing than this campaign.
Its only fears of Labour I think that are keeping him and others voting Tory still.
- people over 35 account for 57% of England's renters (up from 49% in 2013) - prediction that demand from the over 35s will increase eightfold by 2030 - rents rose by a record 9.2% annually in March of this year - rents are 'unaffordable' for 30% of workers (as defgined as spending more than 30% of gross pay on rent)
So things are bad now, and if you believe that eightfold rise in demand by 2030 - even if you only believe it's half that - things are going to be immeasurably worse for the next generation who are likely to be 'renters for life' with all that entails both as adults, and being able to support yourself in old age.
For their failure to sort out the housing market alone, the Conservatives deserve to be out of office.
It's the ultimate failure of Margaret Thatcher's property owning democracy. It simply turned into an oligarchy dominated by the interests of the wealthy winners. But perhaps that was the point all along?
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
The trouble is there's no-one better than Biden in the swing states - Newsom is too Lib and Harris too alienating who'd do even worse - and the other characters like Oprah Winfrey and Michelle Obama are just fantasies picked because they're popular and not obviously Republican, so why not?
Biden is out to 5.7 on beftair. Anyone else think the market is overreacting?
I don't know. We've never had an obviously senile President running for a second term. We have Grandpa Simpson vs a billionaire rapist with a combover. You tell me how to price this.
On the first part, I presume you're joking. Ronald Reagan was already in decline in 1984.
Possibly so, but he clearly wasn't as gone as Biden is. From Wiki:
In the next debate on October 21, however, in response to a question from journalist Henry Trewhitt about his age, Reagan joked, "I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience." Mondale himself laughed at the joke, and later admitted that Reagan had effectively neutralized the age issue:
If TV can tell the truth, as you say it can, you'll see that I was smiling. But I think if you come in close, you'll see some tears coming down because I knew he had gotten me there. That was really the end of my campaign that night, I think. [I told my wife] the campaign was over, and it was.
Yes, you say "the next debate".. what's unsaid here is that Reagan's first debate was.. not good.
Biden is out to 5.7 on beftair. Anyone else think the market is overreacting?
I don't know. We've never had an obviously senile President running for a second term. We have Grandpa Simpson vs a billionaire rapist with a combover. You tell me how to price this.
On the first part, I presume you're joking. Ronald Reagan was already in decline in 1984.
Possibly so, but he clearly wasn't as gone as Biden is. From Wiki:
In the next debate on October 21, however, in response to a question from journalist Henry Trewhitt about his age, Reagan joked, "I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience." Mondale himself laughed at the joke, and later admitted that Reagan had effectively neutralized the age issue:
If TV can tell the truth, as you say it can, you'll see that I was smiling. But I think if you come in close, you'll see some tears coming down because I knew he had gotten me there. That was really the end of my campaign that night, I think. [I told my wife] the campaign was over, and it was.
Yes, you say "the next debate".. what's unsaid here is that Reagan's first debate was.. not good.
You reckon Biden can turn it around as Reagan clearly did?
I see a scenario coming up, similar to the night before Thatcher resigned.
Major and Heseltine polled far better than Thatcher v Kinnock in 1990, no alternative Democrat does v Trump compared to Biden so that is not a valid comparison
Newsom has Heseltine's hair.
He looks like Matthew McConaughey playing Ken Wind.
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
The trouble is there's no-one better than Biden in the swing states - Newsom is too Lib and Harris too alienating who'd do even worse - and the other characters like Oprah Winfrey and Michelle Obama are just fantasies picked because they're popular and not obviously Republican, so why not?
Biden is out to 5.7 on beftair. Anyone else think the market is overreacting?
I don't know. We've never had an obviously senile President running for a second term. We have Grandpa Simpson vs a billionaire rapist with a combover. You tell me how to price this.
On the first part, I presume you're joking. Ronald Reagan was already in decline in 1984.
That is the best delivered line in political debates, ever, imo.
But this is from Reagans sons book.
In it, Ron Reagan describes his growing sense of alarm over his father's mental condition, beginning as early as three years into his first term. He recalls the presidential debate with Walter Mondale on 7 October 1984.
"My heart sank as he floundered his way through his responses, fumbling with his notes, uncharacteristically lost for words. He looked tired and bewildered," Ron Reagan writes.
And if Biden has to stand down, there will be a strong argument for her becoming president immediately and running as the incumbent.
Wouldn’t Harris’ VP need to be confirmed by both houses of congress - and could the Republicans block the latter? If anything then happened to Harris, the Presidency would fall to the Speaker of the House - the Republican Mike Johnson.
I think on balance it would be better to make her President straight away and have people used to the idea, plus it might give the chance for the Dems to slam the Republicans if they refuse her VP Pick.
Only after confirmation in January would Congress get involved on a Veep.
Until then, the Electoral College determines.
Theoretically if Biden continues to run and wins, then drops dead in December and Harris dies in an accident too in December, then Biden's electors would be entitled to pick a new, Democrat, President and Veep without Congress getting involved other than the formality of recognising that the electoral college has voted.
I think they are referring to confirmation of a VP if a new one was needed now. However, I’m not sure if the post requires congressional approval anyway.
Yes, approval is necessary in the event of a mid-term appointment.
Section 2 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment provides that "whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress."
Does it impose a time element? She could have a pocket veto.
Re the above that is what I was referring to yes. If Harris becomes President now she might find it hard to get a VP confirmed? Yes we have had Presidents without VPs before but that was in an era where you could arguably trust the procedures etc of US politics to be upheld.
OTOH if she can point to the Republican house blocking a Veep confirmation and say they are ‘putting politics above country’ etc that might help her a bit in the election
My ushant problem is solved. I’ve dumped the van and rented an ebike so I can drink myself stupid all day. Sorted
Up to a point, Lord Copper
What are the cycling laws in France regarding drinking and cycling?
We’re often asked by our cycling holiday guests about drinking laws and bikes. Well, cycling laws in France are the same as for motorists in this respect with similar penalties. If you are blind drunk and causing a danger to others you’ll be paying a fine – so don’t over-do your wine-tasting! In fact the official limit for a cyclist is between 0.25 and 0.4 mg/l of exhaled air when taking a breath test. The fine for being under the influence of alcohol is €135.
There's also the fact that riding a bike while blind drunk isn't easy. Mine still bears the marks of an ill-advised attempt to do so.
I was once very inebriated on a unicycle. (I was at college. Something had broken on my bike. I was using the unicycle to get around as it's marginally quicker than walking.) I was unicycling home late, maybe 1am?, along the pavement. A police car pulls level with me. 'Shit,' I thought, 'I'm in trouble.'
But, no, they just called out something like, 'That looks difficult!' and drove off. They couldn't tell erratic unicycling from sober unicycling. I was spared.
Unicycling while inebriated is safer than bicycling, however. It's easier to come off a unicycle safely. No handlebars to get in the way. You're going slower.
All this reminds me of the early 80s when the soviets went through a series of aged general secretaries before landing on Gorbachev. The last days of the boomer generation.
There needs to be a shift to the folks in the 40-60.
Like Rishi Sunak, Nigel Farage or Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer?
Sunak and Farage are clearly transitional figures, younger but still playing to the older generation.
Remains to be seen if Starmer is the step change, but it is coming.
Yep, the market isn't entirely wrong: it just exaggerates.
Biden has gone from a 5% chance of not getting the Nom due to a health event to, now, a 20-25% of not getting the Nom due to the Dems acting on his health issues.
But, the market prices the former as a 15-20% chance (even when had all the delegates and it's less than 2 months away) and the latter as a 40-50% chance (even though there's no obvious credible successor who'd do better, and it's less than 2 months away)
Biden has always stumbled and said stupid shit. Now it's much much worse. But I expect, given his daily nap, he's perfectly OK at his day job and understands the interests of swing voters better than other rivals do, even if he doesn't communicate it well.
🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 22 points in our latest poll for The National. Con 20% (+1) Lab 42%(-1) Lib Dem 11% (-2) Reform 17% (+2) SNP 3% (+1) Green 4% (-1) Other 2%(-) Fieldwork: 24th to 26th June 2024
Also taken largely before Wednesday's debate, small swing of 1% from Labour to Tories though Labour still well ahead
Nothing of note has happened in the polls in the entire campaign period save for the Farage bounce, which appears to have impacted the Tories a bit more than Labour. That's it. Tiny little wobbles like these are inconsequential.
Biden is out to 5.7 on beftair. Anyone else think the market is overreacting?
I don't know. We've never had an obviously senile President running for a second term. We have Grandpa Simpson vs a billionaire rapist with a combover. You tell me how to price this.
On the first part, I presume you're joking. Ronald Reagan was already in decline in 1984.
Possibly so, but he clearly wasn't as gone as Biden is. From Wiki:
In the next debate on October 21, however, in response to a question from journalist Henry Trewhitt about his age, Reagan joked, "I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience." Mondale himself laughed at the joke, and later admitted that Reagan had effectively neutralized the age issue:
If TV can tell the truth, as you say it can, you'll see that I was smiling. But I think if you come in close, you'll see some tears coming down because I knew he had gotten me there. That was really the end of my campaign that night, I think. [I told my wife] the campaign was over, and it was.
Yes, you say "the next debate".. what's unsaid here is that Reagan's first debate was.. not good.
You reckon Biden can turn it around as Reagan clearly did?
Yes. Which isn't to disagree with those who say he should step aside.
🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 22 points in our latest poll for The National. Con 20% (+1) Lab 42%(-1) Lib Dem 11% (-2) Reform 17% (+2) SNP 3% (+1) Green 4% (-1) Other 2%(-) Fieldwork: 24th to 26th June 2024
Also taken largely before Wednesday's debate, small swing of 1% from Labour to Tories though Labour still well ahead
Nothing of note has happened in the polls in the entire campaign period save for the Farage bounce, which appears to have impacted the Tories a bit more than Labour. That's it. Tiny little wobbles like these are inconsequential.
The LibDem rise in the polls is another thing of note that has happened.
🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 22 points in our latest poll for The National. Con 20% (+1) Lab 42%(-1) Lib Dem 11% (-2) Reform 17% (+2) SNP 3% (+1) Green 4% (-1) Other 2%(-) Fieldwork: 24th to 26th June 2024
All this reminds me of the early 80s when the soviets went through a series of aged general secretaries before landing on Gorbachev. The last days of the boomer generation.
There needs to be a shift to the folks in the 40-60.
Like Rishi Sunak, Nigel Farage or Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer?
Sunak and Farage are clearly transitional figures, younger but still playing to the older generation.
Remains to be seen if Starmer is the step change, but it is coming.
Starmer is an old-school statist socialist with enough sense to pretend to be a moderate in order to be electable. He is a blast from the past, not a figure for the future. I suspect he will disappoint very rapidly.
Just looking at the last week's polling - is this the first week we've had where a majority of polls have had the Tories under 20%?
Wagergate effect, I'd guess. Right at the outset, I'd jokingly said maybe this is the one election where we get used to the concept of 'swingaway' replacing 'swingback'. I didn't expect it to be true,
From National Service, to D-Day, to wagergate.
Its been a neverending pile of shite from the Tories campaign.
I believe it was @Casino_Royale who put it best the other day when he said at this point he could shit in his hands and clap and it would be more appealing than this campaign.
Its only fears of Labour I think that are keeping him and others voting Tory still.
- people over 35 account for 57% of England's renters (up from 49% in 2013) - prediction that demand from the over 35s will increase eightfold by 2030 - rents rose by a record 9.2% annually in March of this year - rents are 'unaffordable' for 30% of workers (as defgined as spending more than 30% of gross pay on rent)
So things are bad now, and if you believe that eightfold rise in demand by 2030 - even if you only believe it's half that - things are going to be immeasurably worse for the next generation who are likely to be 'renters for life' with all that entails both as adults, and being able to support yourself in old age.
For their failure to sort out the housing market alone, the Conservatives deserve to be out of office.
It's the ultimate failure of Margaret Thatcher's property owning democracy. It simply turned into an oligarchy dominated by the interests of the wealthy winners. But perhaps that was the point all along?
It was only under Thatcher that the numbers owning property in the UK rather than renting clearly rose over 50% for the first time.
As William Glenn correctly pointed out the other day in a chart he showed it was under New Labour that the decline in home ownership rose most dramatically due to their open door immigration policy pushing up demand and prices. They also were building less homes a year than the Tories are now.
Free movement has now ended and we have tighter visa restrictions and we will see if Starmer is willing to build more on greenbelt land as his advisers suggest
Biden is out to 5.7 on beftair. Anyone else think the market is overreacting?
I don't know. We've never had an obviously senile President running for a second term. We have Grandpa Simpson vs a billionaire rapist with a combover. You tell me how to price this.
On the first part, I presume you're joking. Ronald Reagan was already in decline in 1984.
Possibly so, but he clearly wasn't as gone as Biden is. From Wiki:
In the next debate on October 21, however, in response to a question from journalist Henry Trewhitt about his age, Reagan joked, "I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience." Mondale himself laughed at the joke, and later admitted that Reagan had effectively neutralized the age issue:
If TV can tell the truth, as you say it can, you'll see that I was smiling. But I think if you come in close, you'll see some tears coming down because I knew he had gotten me there. That was really the end of my campaign that night, I think. [I told my wife] the campaign was over, and it was.
Yes, you say "the next debate".. what's unsaid here is that Reagan's first debate was.. not good.
You reckon Biden can turn it around as Reagan clearly did?
Yes. Which isn't to disagree with those who say he should step aside.
Fair enough, I am sceptical. Arguably, it shouldn't matter, and Americans should vote for a corpse over Trump, but that isn't going to happen. The Dems are more likely to win with someone else than with Biden. The sooner they realise this the better.
Biden is out to 5.7 on beftair. Anyone else think the market is overreacting?
I don't know. We've never had an obviously senile President running for a second term. We have Grandpa Simpson vs a billionaire rapist with a combover. You tell me how to price this.
On the first part, I presume you're joking. Ronald Reagan was already in decline in 1984.
Possibly so, but he clearly wasn't as gone as Biden is. From Wiki:
In the next debate on October 21, however, in response to a question from journalist Henry Trewhitt about his age, Reagan joked, "I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience." Mondale himself laughed at the joke, and later admitted that Reagan had effectively neutralized the age issue:
If TV can tell the truth, as you say it can, you'll see that I was smiling. But I think if you come in close, you'll see some tears coming down because I knew he had gotten me there. That was really the end of my campaign that night, I think. [I told my wife] the campaign was over, and it was.
Yes, you say "the next debate".. what's unsaid here is that Reagan's first debate was.. not good.
You reckon Biden can turn it around as Reagan clearly did?
I don't think Reagan failed in 84 for either debate
🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 22 points in our latest poll for The National. Con 20% (+1) Lab 42%(-1) Lib Dem 11% (-2) Reform 17% (+2) SNP 3% (+1) Green 4% (-1) Other 2%(-) Fieldwork: 24th to 26th June 2024
Also taken largely before Wednesday's debate, small swing of 1% from Labour to Tories though Labour still well ahead
Nothing of note has happened in the polls in the entire campaign period save for the Farage bounce, which appears to have impacted the Tories a bit more than Labour. That's it. Tiny little wobbles like these are inconsequential.
The LibDem rise in the polls is another thing of note that has happened.
Not really. They've appreciated by 1-2%. Though, of course, the more relevant thing for the yellows is where their voters are located.
Biden is out to 5.7 on beftair. Anyone else think the market is overreacting?
I don't know. We've never had an obviously senile President running for a second term. We have Grandpa Simpson vs a billionaire rapist with a combover. You tell me how to price this.
On the first part, I presume you're joking. Ronald Reagan was already in decline in 1984.
Possibly so, but he clearly wasn't as gone as Biden is. From Wiki:
In the next debate on October 21, however, in response to a question from journalist Henry Trewhitt about his age, Reagan joked, "I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience." Mondale himself laughed at the joke, and later admitted that Reagan had effectively neutralized the age issue:
If TV can tell the truth, as you say it can, you'll see that I was smiling. But I think if you come in close, you'll see some tears coming down because I knew he had gotten me there. That was really the end of my campaign that night, I think. [I told my wife] the campaign was over, and it was.
Yes, you say "the next debate".. what's unsaid here is that Reagan's first debate was.. not good.
You reckon Biden can turn it around as Reagan clearly did?
Yes. Which isn't to disagree with those who say he should step aside.
Fair enough, I am sceptical. Arguably, it shouldn't matter, and Americans should vote for a corpse over Trump, but that isn't going to happen. The Dems are more likely to win with someone else than with Biden. The sooner they realise this the better.
Who? Biden is the only Democrat who has beaten Trump in the rustbelt swing states. No evidence Newsom and Harris would, indeed both almost certainly would just repeat the 2016 result Hillary got
All this reminds me of the early 80s when the soviets went through a series of aged general secretaries before landing on Gorbachev. The last days of the boomer generation.
There needs to be a shift to the folks in the 40-60.
Like Rishi Sunak, Nigel Farage or Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer?
Sunak and Farage are clearly transitional figures, younger but still playing to the older generation.
Remains to be seen if Starmer is the step change, but it is coming.
Starmer is an old-school statist socialist with enough sense to pretend to be a moderate in order to be electable. He is a blast from the past, not a figure for the future. I suspect he will disappoint very rapidly.
If he gets a majority he will bea remarkably effective LotO. Could be good. Let’s hope so.
Biden is out to 5.7 on beftair. Anyone else think the market is overreacting?
I don't know. We've never had an obviously senile President running for a second term. We have Grandpa Simpson vs a billionaire rapist with a combover. You tell me how to price this.
On the first part, I presume you're joking. Ronald Reagan was already in decline in 1984.
Possibly so, but he clearly wasn't as gone as Biden is. From Wiki:
In the next debate on October 21, however, in response to a question from journalist Henry Trewhitt about his age, Reagan joked, "I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience." Mondale himself laughed at the joke, and later admitted that Reagan had effectively neutralized the age issue:
If TV can tell the truth, as you say it can, you'll see that I was smiling. But I think if you come in close, you'll see some tears coming down because I knew he had gotten me there. That was really the end of my campaign that night, I think. [I told my wife] the campaign was over, and it was.
Yes, you say "the next debate".. what's unsaid here is that Reagan's first debate was.. not good.
You reckon Biden can turn it around as Reagan clearly did?
Yes. Which isn't to disagree with those who say he should step aside.
Fair enough, I am sceptical. Arguably, it shouldn't matter, and Americans should vote for a corpse over Trump, but that isn't going to happen. The Dems are more likely to win with someone else than with Biden. The sooner they realise this the better.
Who? Biden is the only Democrat who has beaten Trump in the rustbelt swing states. No evidence Newsom and Harris would, indeed both almost certainly would just repeat the 2016 result Hillary got
He is definitely too old. But he shows no signs of dementia.
However, Trump does.
Careful, Leon is pretending that he is making a 'spreadsheet'
Absolutely Biden should be replaced but is anyone actually capable of defeating Trump?
Biden is the only candidate to have ever actually beaten Trump.
I think we are past that point.
Jill Biden needs to rethink her support for Joe's second term. If he walks now he remains undefeated against Trump, he can pardon Hunter and we can cross our fingers for a Trump defeat by Whitmer, Michelle or Mayor Pete.
Biden is out to 5.7 on beftair. Anyone else think the market is overreacting?
I don't know. We've never had an obviously senile President running for a second term. We have Grandpa Simpson vs a billionaire rapist with a combover. You tell me how to price this.
On the first part, I presume you're joking. Ronald Reagan was already in decline in 1984.
Possibly so, but he clearly wasn't as gone as Biden is. From Wiki:
In the next debate on October 21, however, in response to a question from journalist Henry Trewhitt about his age, Reagan joked, "I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience." Mondale himself laughed at the joke, and later admitted that Reagan had effectively neutralized the age issue:
If TV can tell the truth, as you say it can, you'll see that I was smiling. But I think if you come in close, you'll see some tears coming down because I knew he had gotten me there. That was really the end of my campaign that night, I think. [I told my wife] the campaign was over, and it was.
Yes, you say "the next debate".. what's unsaid here is that Reagan's first debate was.. not good.
You reckon Biden can turn it around as Reagan clearly did?
Yes. Which isn't to disagree with those who say he should step aside.
Fair enough, I am sceptical. Arguably, it shouldn't matter, and Americans should vote for a corpse over Trump, but that isn't going to happen. The Dems are more likely to win with someone else than with Biden. The sooner they realise this the better.
Who? Biden is the only Democrat who has beaten Trump in the rustbelt swing states. No evidence Newsom and Harris would, indeed both almost certainly would just repeat the 2016 result Hillary got
But it's obvious that Trump wouldn't be up against Biden. He is up against whoever the Dems want it to be after the election.
All this reminds me of the early 80s when the soviets went through a series of aged general secretaries before landing on Gorbachev. The last days of the boomer generation.
There needs to be a shift to the folks in the 40-60.
Like Rishi Sunak, Nigel Farage or Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer?
Sunak and Farage are clearly transitional figures, younger but still playing to the older generation.
Remains to be seen if Starmer is the step change, but it is coming.
Starmer is an old-school statist socialist with enough sense to pretend to be a moderate in order to be electable. He is a blast from the past, not a figure for the future. I suspect he will disappoint very rapidly.
Yup, he will be as popular as Biden, Scolz, Albanese and Hollande were a year after election by summer 2025.
Biden is out to 5.7 on beftair. Anyone else think the market is overreacting?
I don't know. We've never had an obviously senile President running for a second term. We have Grandpa Simpson vs a billionaire rapist with a combover. You tell me how to price this.
On the first part, I presume you're joking. Ronald Reagan was already in decline in 1984.
Possibly so, but he clearly wasn't as gone as Biden is. From Wiki:
In the next debate on October 21, however, in response to a question from journalist Henry Trewhitt about his age, Reagan joked, "I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience." Mondale himself laughed at the joke, and later admitted that Reagan had effectively neutralized the age issue:
If TV can tell the truth, as you say it can, you'll see that I was smiling. But I think if you come in close, you'll see some tears coming down because I knew he had gotten me there. That was really the end of my campaign that night, I think. [I told my wife] the campaign was over, and it was.
Yes, you say "the next debate".. what's unsaid here is that Reagan's first debate was.. not good.
You reckon Biden can turn it around as Reagan clearly did?
I don't think Reagan failed in 84 for either debate
Comments
Famous last words
https://x.com/richardhanania/status/1806499620111208457?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
On a more positive note for Democrat despairers - or anyone in Ukraine - here’s Newsom looking decisive and ruthless. And very articulate. I know he has a lot of woke baggage and California is a barren wasteland but still. These are hard times
Newsom?
https://x.com/growing_daniel/status/1806559308856934423?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
You've been bloviating about "demented" Biden for ages, linking to clips purporting to prove it, most of which have been doctored, misleading or out of context. I mean, c'mon. It's just embarrassing to be pretending that this is some sincere and considered medical opinion based on your own experience.
But thanks for the insult anyway. Quite gratifying. Because the moment you stop thinking I'm an arsehole is the moment I start to fret.
At least Rishi hasn't done that. But watching/reading the depressing voxpops /constituency reports I sometimes wonder what he would have to do to stop some people voting Tory.
And the penalties are quite tasty, though I've no idea how they would enforce it on a gyrating, garrulous middle-aged e-biker.
That should liven up the US elections.
- people over 35 account for 57% of England's renters (up from 49% in 2013)
- prediction that demand from the over 35s will increase eightfold by 2030
- rents rose by a record 9.2% annually in March of this year
- rents are 'unaffordable' for 30% of workers (as defgined as spending more than 30% of gross pay on rent)
So things are bad now, and if you believe that eightfold rise in demand by 2030 - even if you only believe it's half that - things are going to be immeasurably worse for the next generation who are likely to be 'renters for life' with all that entails both as adults, and being able to support yourself in old age.
For their failure to sort out the housing market alone, the Conservatives deserve to be out of office.
I’ve been saying for about 18 months - at least - that Biden is in steep cognitive decline. And that this would obviously get worse - that’s what it does. And that this could easily be catastrophic for the democrats
Now, if I was really some secret Trump supporter, why would I do that? Surely I’d stay quiet and let the democrats make their enormous lying blunder so Trump can win?
But I didn’t do that because I’m not a Trump supporter. It would be bad if he won. Maybe slightly amusing in a nihilistic way - but really bad.
Moreover, I say what I see. I tell the truth and I extrapolate from the facts before me. And here is another example of where I got it right and an awful lot of PBers got it wrong
And that’s my final word with you on this topic for today. I’m off on my ebike. E-bikes are so cool and this island is like Enid Blyton meets Wagner
Last night has sealed his fate.
Its sad as he's actually been a decent President and had he retired with grace, he'd have had a good legacy.
A National Rally.
There needs to be a shift to the folks in the 40-60.
Section 2 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment provides that "whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress."
But it's both reasonably likely that he'll be replaced, and if he does run, reasonably likely that he'd lose, so around 9/2 isn't a massive overreaction in what's now a very volatile situation.
Below 20%
Techne
Redfield & Wilton
YouGov
Survation
Deltapoll
Ipsos
Whitestone Insight
People Polling
Lord Ashcroft
At 20%
BMG
Opinium
Above 20%
More in Common
Norstat
JL Partners
Savanta
Verian
We Think
Focaldata
There were only seven polls putting the Tories below 20% in the whole of 2024 before the election was called. The Tory campaign has been lamentable. Really poor.
Is there anything there you disagree with?
I'm speculating that a few senior Dems and/or Whitehouse Aides encouraged Biden to hold a debate this early. Early enough to show that Biden really is fit enough to run for president again, ... or not.
https://youtu.be/WRRG43WBbig?feature=shared
Ronald Reagan was already in decline in 1984.
Be a smarty
Come and Join
The Reform Party
I don’t abandon someone because they had a bad night. Joe has my back, and I have his.
It that simple.
https://x.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1806547253269852206
But how do you get a stubborn doddering President with a crazy wife to step aside? You show him to the world so the pressure to step aside becomes overwhelming
Otherwise why do this debate???
🚨New Voting Intention🚨
Labour lead by 22 points in our latest poll for The National.
Con 20% (+1)
Lab 42%(-1)
Lib Dem 11% (-2)
Reform 17% (+2)
SNP 3% (+1)
Green 4% (-1)
Other 2%(-)
Fieldwork: 24th to 26th June 2024
https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1806655077458854178
In the next debate on October 21, however, in response to a question from journalist Henry Trewhitt about his age, Reagan joked, "I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience." Mondale himself laughed at the joke, and later admitted that Reagan had effectively neutralized the age issue:
If TV can tell the truth, as you say it can, you'll see that I was smiling. But I think if you come in close, you'll see some tears coming down because I knew he had gotten me there. That was really the end of my campaign that night, I think. [I told my wife] the campaign was over, and it was.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-kGUyqOpFA
He didn’t “have a bad night”. The whole world saw a man unfit to be President
Biden has to own this and wear it.
But this is from Reagans sons book.
In it, Ron Reagan describes his growing sense of alarm over his father's mental condition, beginning as early as three years into his first term. He recalls the presidential debate with Walter Mondale on 7 October 1984.
"My heart sank as he floundered his way through his responses, fumbling with his notes, uncharacteristically lost for words. He looked tired and bewildered," Ron Reagan writes.
OTOH if she can point to the Republican house blocking a Veep confirmation and say they are ‘putting politics above country’ etc that might help her a bit in the election
But, no, they just called out something like, 'That looks difficult!' and drove off. They couldn't tell erratic unicycling from sober unicycling. I was spared.
Unicycling while inebriated is safer than bicycling, however. It's easier to come off a unicycle safely. No handlebars to get in the way. You're going slower.
Remains to be seen if Starmer is the step change, but it is coming.
Biden has gone from a 5% chance of not getting the Nom due to a health event to, now, a 20-25% of not getting the Nom due to the Dems acting on his health issues.
But, the market prices the former as a 15-20% chance (even when had all the delegates and it's less than 2 months away) and the latter as a 40-50% chance (even though there's no obvious credible successor who'd do better, and it's less than 2 months away)
Biden has always stumbled and said stupid shit. Now it's much much worse. But I expect, given his daily nap, he's perfectly OK at his day job and understands the interests of swing voters better than other rivals do, even if he doesn't communicate it well.
Which isn't to disagree with those who say he should step aside.
🗳️The Conservatives fall back to equal their lowest ever vote share while Reform rises
🔴Labour 42%
🔵Conservative 19%
🟦Reform UK 15%
🟡Liberal Democrats 11%
🟢Greens 7%
https://x.com/IpsosUK/status/1806658965884882967
As William Glenn correctly pointed out the other day in a chart he showed it was under New Labour that the decline in home ownership rose most dramatically due to their open door immigration policy pushing up demand and prices. They also were building less homes a year than the Tories are now.
Free movement has now ended and we have tighter visa restrictions and we will see if Starmer is willing to build more on greenbelt land as his advisers suggest
Debate 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObDjMJdNGBw (about 90 mins)
Debate 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SbsCaRYW6w (about 90 mins)
Jill Biden needs to rethink her support for Joe's second term. If he walks now he remains undefeated against Trump, he can pardon Hunter and we can cross our fingers for a Trump defeat by Whitmer, Michelle or Mayor Pete.
He is a social democrat not a Blairite
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2012/10/when-ronald-reagan-blew-a-presidential-debate-and-dropped-seven-points-in-the-polls.html