Electoral Calculus has revised/updated its forecast and it looks interesting (LibDems HMMLO and Reform on a more realistic six seats (vs 19 previously)
Edit: sorry for going off topic into UK politics (there's a PB apology for you).
But many of their predictions look bizarre, and out of line with all the others - for example they have the LibDems taking Labour Cambridge and Labour Bermondsey, neither of which seems remotely likely?
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.
I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
That sounds sensible
I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman
Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
She won't win any of the swing states.
Is that the polling?
Fair enough
Jfc the democrats have got themselves in a right old pickle. Perhaps they should have been more honest with voters and themselves a year ago when it was already being pointed out that Biden was in speedy decline. Instead they decided to lie and to gaslight everyone. Generally, that doesn’t work out well
Jill Biden has to take a lot of the blame for this mess imho.
Unless - as @Theuniondivvie has perceptively pointed out - Joe Biden himself is the issue. Demented people can be just as stubborn - more stubborn? Less open to persuasion? - than sane people
Perhaps she’s tried and he’s not having any of it. And he can’t see the issue because he’s demented
Seems like Biden has blown it. Not unpredictable. I must say if Trump now wins thank goodness Starmer and not Sunak will be in charge. Despite his appearance of pusillanimity underneath we know him to be a committed European and if ever we'll have needed to be part of a united Europe this is the time
Yes - and for the sake of Ukraine and peace in Europe if nothing else.
Trump is not an ally of Europe. He's not a friend of anyone but his own self interest, and doesn't do deals via mutually beneficial relationships. Forget trade deals, I wouldn't be surprised if there is a trade war.
Starmer should do nothing to antagonise Trump, but equally should know where our more reliable allies are for his first term if Trump is president.
Perhaps so but Trump still gave Europe the best advice its had in decades:
Increase military spending Reduce dependence upon Russian energy
Instead the policy of GDR Merkel, lauded as a 'more reliable ally', was to:
Reduce military spending Increase dependence upon Russian energy
On Leon’s mockery of people who point out that Biden has a stammer I feel I should point out that I have a stammer which is worsened by stress and (unusually) alcohol. At my worst I would be less coherent than Biden was last night. The worst thing is that because you desperately try to substitute any word you can actually get out it makes you sound stupid. I’m youngish so people don’t attribute it to senility but I could see how they could if I were older.
As it happens I also think that Biden has other related issues too but that doesn’t mean his stammer is still not a problem.
Sorry but last night was not a stammer. At least not the real problem bits. I suffer from non verbal tourettes which includes a stammer element - or at least a hesitation element. What Biden was displaying was completely losing track of what he was trying to say. Not that he couldn't form the words but that half way through a sentance he just went blank. He had literally forgotten what he was supposed to be saying.
I desperately want someone to beat Trump and if that was Biden then great. But it won't be because he is no longer fit to be President and everyone and see that.
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.
I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
That sounds sensible
I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman
Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
She won't win any of the swing states.
Is that the polling?
Fair enough
Jfc the democrats have got themselves in a right old pickle. Perhaps they should have been more honest with voters and themselves a year ago when it was already being pointed out that Biden was in speedy decline. Instead they decided to lie and to gaslight everyone. Generally, that doesn’t work out well
Jill Biden has to take a lot of the blame for this mess imho.
Unless - as @Theuniondivvie has perceptively pointed out - Joe Biden himself is the issue. Demented people can be just as stubborn - more stubborn? Less open to persuasion? - than sane people
Perhaps she’s tried and he’s not having any of it. And he can’t see the issue because he’s demented
What the heck do you do then??
I'd guess that her plan - and maybe that of the Dems more widely - was for him to display his Trump-beating credentials for a second time, and then step down (or be retired) and hand over to the VP, in true Sian Berry style. Sadly it looks as if his health is working to a faster timetable.
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
Doesn't sound like something I'd say usually, but when you make as many posts as I do I cannot remember many.
No really. You did. Congratulate yourself!
There was a whole debate (I think after the state of the Union?) when a lot of PBers were saying “look Biden is fine it was all nonsense he just has a stammer and he wears adult nappies as a fashion statement” and you and @Luckyguy1983 quietly but firmly insisted “no, he’s senile; and it will get worse, and ignoring this is really foolish”
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
Jeez have you really got nothing else going on in your life? It's almost a shame nobody's got the time or will to wade through the floods of runny poo you have been posting on here for years to repost the most idiotic and obnoxious, though it would fill up the comments for many pages.
Yep. You were one of the “Biden is fine, presidents always poop themselves at NATO meetings” people. I’m preparing a spreadsheet of the most insane remarks
Ha, I knew if I provoked you you would waste time searching for some killer quote from me. Hopefully it will keep you quiet a bit longer.
But as I am going away for the weekend please give me my quote now because I can't remember it, and I don't want to miss it.
Dude there are dozens - just from you. Its going to take weeks to repost them all from everyone but luckily I’m brutally cruel and I love gloating when I’m right so I’m prepared to put in the hard yards. Don’t worry you won’t miss anything - there will be plenty more when you return, for several weeks
So you didn't find a single one?
I want to catch you out when you’re not expecting it. More fun that way
Dude, don't give up so easily! I do now remember posting something about Biden that with hindsight must seem so hilariously wrong that it it will definitely be worth your while digging it out! I just can't remember when, but it was definitely some time in the last four years. I'm sure you'll find it eventually.
I have said before - Harris could crash and burn. But if Biden were to step down and pass the torch, she would get a wall of media attention and a window (however narrow) in which to redefine herself. And whilst it’s a roll of the dice, people could start seeing her as presidential and she could boost her image.
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.
I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
That sounds sensible
I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman
Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
Putting aside any personal opinion I have about Harris, she polls badly, with high negative ratings. Running with her as the candidate would be a rerun of running with Hillary, and ignoring her negative ratings. It would be a mistake and likely lead to defeat.
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.
I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
That sounds sensible
I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman
Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
She won't win any of the swing states.
Is that the polling?
Fair enough
Jfc the democrats have got themselves in a right old pickle. Perhaps they should have been more honest with voters and themselves a year ago when it was already being pointed out that Biden was in speedy decline. Instead they decided to lie and to gaslight everyone. Generally, that doesn’t work out well
Jill Biden has to take a lot of the blame for this mess imho.
Unless - as @Theuniondivvie has perceptively pointed out - Joe Biden himself is the issue. Demented people can be just as stubborn - more stubborn? Less open to persuasion? - than sane people
Perhaps she’s tried and he’s not having any of it. And he can’t see the issue because he’s demented
What the heck do you do then??
Either his cabinet or the Dem convention force him to stand down.
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.
I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
That sounds sensible
I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman
Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
She won't win any of the swing states.
Is that the polling?
Fair enough
Jfc the democrats have got themselves in a right old pickle. Perhaps they should have been more honest with voters and themselves a year ago when it was already being pointed out that Biden was in speedy decline. Instead they decided to lie and to gaslight everyone. Generally, that doesn’t work out well
Jill Biden has to take a lot of the blame for this mess imho.
Unless - as @Theuniondivvie has perceptively pointed out - Joe Biden himself is the issue. Demented people can be just as stubborn - more stubborn? Less open to persuasion? - than sane people
Perhaps she’s tried and he’s not having any of it. And he can’t see the issue because he’s demented
What the heck do you do then??
They could 25th him but that leads to certain defeat by DJT because they've left it too late.
I actually think Kamala would be ok at being POTUS and the candidate but apparently it's just me.
Seems like Biden has blown it. Not unpredictable. I must say if Trump now wins thank goodness Starmer and not Sunak will be in charge. Despite his appearance of pusillanimity underneath we know him to be a committed European and if ever we'll have needed to be part of a united Europe this is the time
When push comes to shove the UK has always stood by its allies. Its not a fair statement to suggest that Sunak would do any less.
Yes but Europe will prove to be a much better ally than an isolationist Trumpian US
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.
I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
That sounds sensible
I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman
Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
She won't win any of the swing states.
Is that the polling?
Fair enough
Jfc the democrats have got themselves in a right old pickle. Perhaps they should have been more honest with voters and themselves a year ago when it was already being pointed out that Biden was in speedy decline. Instead they decided to lie and to gaslight everyone. Generally, that doesn’t work out well
Jill Biden has to take a lot of the blame for this mess imho.
Unless - as @Theuniondivvie has perceptively pointed out - Joe Biden himself is the issue. Demented people can be just as stubborn - more stubborn? Less open to persuasion? - than sane people
Perhaps she’s tried and he’s not having any of it. And he can’t see the issue because he’s demented
What the heck do you do then??
They could 25th him but that leads to certain defeat by DJT because they've left it too late.
I actually think Kamala would be ok at being POTUS and the candidate but apparently it's just me.
Yes. She is possibly the least bad option out of many really bad options, which the democrats have forced on themselves
Electoral Calculus has revised/updated its forecast and it looks interesting (LibDems HMMLO and Reform on a more realistic six seats (vs 19 previously)
Edit: sorry for going off topic into UK politics (there's a PB apology for you).
But many of their predictions look bizarre, and out of line with all the others - for example they have the LibDems taking Labour Cambridge and Labour Bermondsey, neither of which seems remotely likely?
EC's prediction is still that the LDs (6 seats ahead of Con) will be HMLO, and Davey LOTO. I wouldn't mind at all if this happened, but I don't think it will.
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.
I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
That sounds sensible
I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman
Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
She won't win any of the swing states.
Is that the polling?
Fair enough
Jfc the democrats have got themselves in a right old pickle. Perhaps they should have been more honest with voters and themselves a year ago when it was already being pointed out that Biden was in speedy decline. Instead they decided to lie and to gaslight everyone. Generally, that doesn’t work out well
Jill Biden has to take a lot of the blame for this mess imho.
Unless - as @Theuniondivvie has perceptively pointed out - Joe Biden himself is the issue. Demented people can be just as stubborn - more stubborn? Less open to persuasion? - than sane people
Perhaps she’s tried and he’s not having any of it. And he can’t see the issue because he’s demented
What the heck do you do then??
That's the problem (and why I have said for ages that it's extremely hard to replace a sitting president).
If he steps down, then it's up to the vote of several thousand (of what were Biden's) delegates. Picked for a degree of loyalty to Biden, he or his camp will have some influence over them, but otherwise it's a free for all.
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.
I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
That sounds sensible
I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman
Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
Putting aside any personal opinion I have about Harris, she polls badly, with high negative ratings. Running with her as the candidate would be a rerun of running with Hillary, and ignoring her negative ratings. It would be a mistake and likely lead to defeat.
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.
I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
That sounds sensible
I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman
Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
She won't win any of the swing states.
Is that the polling?
Fair enough
Jfc the democrats have got themselves in a right old pickle. Perhaps they should have been more honest with voters and themselves a year ago when it was already being pointed out that Biden was in speedy decline. Instead they decided to lie and to gaslight everyone. Generally, that doesn’t work out well
Jill Biden has to take a lot of the blame for this mess imho.
Unless - as @Theuniondivvie has perceptively pointed out - Joe Biden himself is the issue. Demented people can be just as stubborn - more stubborn? Less open to persuasion? - than sane people
Perhaps she’s tried and he’s not having any of it. And he can’t see the issue because he’s demented
What the heck do you do then??
They could 25th him but that leads to certain defeat by DJT because they've left it too late.
I actually think Kamala would be ok at being POTUS and the candidate but apparently it's just me.
Not just you.
She'd present a very striking contrast to Trump too, and, who knows, the US electorate may suddenly start to want, once again, a more decent politics that she'd surely represent.
Completely off topic personal news but got a couple of reasons to celebrate. Had an interview last week for a new job and have been offered and accepted the job which I'm looking to starting.
And separately, after eight months on my carnivore diet I have now lost 54lbs (24.5kg, nearly 4 stone). I am now pleased to say I have 'beaten' obesity and am well clear of the threshold for being obese. I set originally the target of losing 70lbs which will mean I'm no longer overweight at all if I can achieve that, let alone obese.
Well done on both counts. Keep at it but don't panic if you bob up a bit it would only be natural. Losing weight is the most miserable thing and 4 stone is a huge amount, literally. Most people revert, sadly, once they have been on a diet so now the challenge is to find a mode of living and eating whereby you don't feel the need to eat in the way that you had done pre-weight loss.
Thanks, yeah. It has bobbed up and down over the past eight months, with the odd plateaus too, but the long-term trend has been one-way.
I think everyone is different and everyone needs to find something that works for them and they can sustain, which is why facile things like "just eat less and move more" is like saying to pilot a jet you just need to "decide where you want to go, go up in the air, then get there".
I've never been addicted to smoking or anything else, but I now think that battling your weight is kind of like battling an addiction. When I was eating carbs I would be very hungry and craving food not many hours after having eaten, which is caused by biology and how it affects some people.
Cutting out carbs, I no longer have the cravings, I very rarely get hungry and typically only eat because I know its time to eat and not because I'm "starving" and need to eat.
The danger is going to be if I reintroduce carbs and the cravings come back, but to be honest I don't really miss them anyway. My dad was a vegetarian for decades until he got diabetes (which is what motivated me to lose the weight) and he switched from eating a vegetarian diet to more protein/meat based (but not as extreme as me). I don't really miss carbs, besides sushi which I'll probably allow myself as a "cheat" from time to time once I'm looking to maintain my weight rather than lose anymore.
Yes v sensible. Make sure you have enough treats. A problem with losing weight is that you end up obsessed by the very thing you want to avoid - ie food. If you set yourself treats along the way it becomes much easier. And if you have got to the position where you can take it or leave it then it really does look like job done.
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
Jeez have you really got nothing else going on in your life? It's almost a shame nobody's got the time or will to wade through the floods of runny poo you have been posting on here for years to repost the most idiotic and obnoxious, though it would fill up the comments for many pages.
Yep. You were one of the “Biden is fine, presidents always poop themselves at NATO meetings” people. I’m preparing a spreadsheet of the most insane remarks
Ha, I knew if I provoked you you would waste time searching for some killer quote from me. Hopefully it will keep you quiet a bit longer.
But as I am going away for the weekend please give me my quote now because I can't remember it, and I don't want to miss it.
Dude there are dozens - just from you. Its going to take weeks to repost them all from everyone but luckily I’m brutally cruel and I love gloating when I’m right so I’m prepared to put in the hard yards. Don’t worry you won’t miss anything - there will be plenty more when you return, for several weeks
So you didn't find a single one?
I want to catch you out when you’re not expecting it. More fun that way
Dude, don't give up so easily! I do now remember posting something about Biden that with hindsight must seem so hilariously wrong that it it will definitely be worth your while digging it out! I just can't remember when, but it was definitely some time in the last four years. I'm sure you'll find it eventually.
Er what? I’m not going to do it personally. They have algorithms for this kind of thing now
Completely off topic personal news but got a couple of reasons to celebrate. Had an interview last week for a new job and have been offered and accepted the job which I'm looking to starting.
And separately, after eight months on my carnivore diet I have now lost 54lbs (24.5kg, nearly 4 stone). I am now pleased to say I have 'beaten' obesity and am well clear of the threshold for being obese. I set originally the target of losing 70lbs which will mean I'm no longer overweight at all if I can achieve that, let alone obese.
Well done! It’s a great achievement. I too was close to obese about six months ago. I did a lot of things - fasting etc - then ozempic - to try and tackle it and they weren’t entirely successful
But I’ve discovered a really cool way of dropping weight slowly but consistently. Move around more and eat less. Without even trying the weight comes off. It’s like magic
I gained weight when I switched from commuting by public transport to commuting by car. Plus an office culture of cakes, pies and samosas. Ended up nudging 15 stone.
What worked for me was eating a lot less for my mid-day meal and at work generally. I lost a stone and a half over the course of a year, slowly but surely. While others are tucking in to a bowl of leftovers or a meal deal, I have 4 or 5 pieces of fruit.
My commute (albeit 2 or 3 days a week) is now by train, and includes gets me over 10,000 steps for the day, and that has helped be lose a bit more.
I'm now below 13 stone for the first time in decades.
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.
I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
That sounds sensible
I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman
Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
Putting aside any personal opinion I have about Harris, she polls badly, with high negative ratings. Running with her as the candidate would be a rerun of running with Hillary, and ignoring her negative ratings. It would be a mistake and likely lead to defeat.
I see lots of losing moves for the Democrats.
Unfortunately Trump would love having Harris as his opponent. Dems need to think outside the immediate box and look for a unity candidate. An Eisenhower type figure. Military or business. A public servant. Do what Trump wouldn't want them to do.
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.
I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
That sounds sensible
I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman
Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
She won't win any of the swing states.
Is that the polling?
Fair enough
Jfc the democrats have got themselves in a right old pickle. Perhaps they should have been more honest with voters and themselves a year ago when it was already being pointed out that Biden was in speedy decline. Instead they decided to lie and to gaslight everyone. Generally, that doesn’t work out well
Jill Biden has to take a lot of the blame for this mess imho.
Unless - as @Theuniondivvie has perceptively pointed out - Joe Biden himself is the issue. Demented people can be just as stubborn - more stubborn? Less open to persuasion? - than sane people
Perhaps she’s tried and he’s not having any of it. And he can’t see the issue because he’s demented
What the heck do you do then??
I'd guess that her plan - and maybe that of the Dems more widely - was for him to display his Trump-beating credentials for a second time, and then step down (or be retired) and hand over to the VP, in true Sian Berry style. Sadly it looks as if his health is working to a faster timetable.
Jill Biden looked as demented as Joe in that clip from the post debate party. Just demented in a different way.
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.
I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
That sounds sensible
I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman
Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
Putting aside any personal opinion I have about Harris, she polls badly, with high negative ratings. Running with her as the candidate would be a rerun of running with Hillary, and ignoring her negative ratings. It would be a mistake and likely lead to defeat.
I see lots of losing moves for the Democrats.
I don't know how it comes over to Americans but for me with Kamala it's all about that most effective tool of pols, the voice. She has a nasal whine that seems just on the verge of nagging you about all your past shortcomings.
Still, it doesn't seem to have held back Vicks Sinex Starmer or Bumble Bee Trapped in a Bottle Reeves.
In previous elections, I thought laying Michelle Obama for the Presidency was smart - tipped by many on here regularly at good odds.
This year, however, I was against it - because I thought there was actually a chance.
And we might be seeing why.
If you want to ditch Harris, it goes over much better with your Democrat base to pick another black woman.
She can be continuity Obama/Biden without the flaws - which might be enough against Trump.
I remember in 2020 a lot of American pundits suggesting that Michelle would win 400+ seats against Trump, either as Biden’s VP or herself. I’m not sure *that* much but I see the logic.
If Trump knocks her lack of experience, she can easily say “Donald you were a reality TV star before becoming President, whereas I did XYZ in the White House…”
I also think, in 2020, we saw how Barack Obama had the clout to unite the party behind Biden against Bernie. In 2024, he is perhaps uniquely placed to tell his old friend Joe it’s time to stand aside - and to encourage his wife, who might be reluctant to do it, that she needs to ‘Save America’.
Michelle Obama for President also allows you to pick a safe pair of hands as a VP candidate, which might bolster the ticket overall. E.g. Newsom for President might be seen as supplanting Harris in a negative manner. But Obama / Newsom might be more palatable.
To be honest I still think Harris is more likely than the above but you cannot rule it out and I think laying Michelle for President is bad at the odds quoted.
Last night showed Biden may be toast, but also, this is not the Trump of 2016 or 2020. He is more beatable than he seems right now.
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.
I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
That sounds sensible
I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman
Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
She won't win any of the swing states.
Is that the polling?
Fair enough
Jfc the democrats have got themselves in a right old pickle. Perhaps they should have been more honest with voters and themselves a year ago when it was already being pointed out that Biden was in speedy decline. Instead they decided to lie and to gaslight everyone. Generally, that doesn’t work out well
Jill Biden has to take a lot of the blame for this mess imho.
Unless - as @Theuniondivvie has perceptively pointed out - Joe Biden himself is the issue. Demented people can be just as stubborn - more stubborn? Less open to persuasion? - than sane people
Perhaps she’s tried and he’s not having any of it. And he can’t see the issue because he’s demented
What the heck do you do then??
First you have to convince Biden that he is likely to lose to Trump, the polls at the moment are showing it as neck-and-neck and maybe moving slightly in Biden's favour over recent weeks, though I expect this will change (having said that, I was surprised that his Mitterrand and Kohl comments seemed to have no effect on the polls back in February).
Then you have to convince him that a replacement candidate will do better against Trump. The only straightforward (logistically speaking) replacement candidate is Harris, and we can't even convince ourselves that she would do better, so it's a tough sell.
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.
I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
That sounds sensible
I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman
Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
She won't win any of the swing states.
Is that the polling?
Fair enough
Jfc the democrats have got themselves in a right old pickle. Perhaps they should have been more honest with voters and themselves a year ago when it was already being pointed out that Biden was in speedy decline. Instead they decided to lie and to gaslight everyone. Generally, that doesn’t work out well
Jill Biden has to take a lot of the blame for this mess imho.
Unless - as @Theuniondivvie has perceptively pointed out - Joe Biden himself is the issue. Demented people can be just as stubborn - more stubborn? Less open to persuasion? - than sane people
Perhaps she’s tried and he’s not having any of it. And he can’t see the issue because he’s demented
What the heck do you do then??
First you have to convince Biden that he is likely to lose to Trump, the polls at the moment are showing it as neck-and-neck and maybe moving slightly in Biden's favour over recent weeks, though I expect this will change (having said that, I was surprised that his Mitterrand and Kohl comments seemed to have no effect on the polls back in February).
Then you have to convince him that a replacement candidate will do better against Trump. The only straightforward (logistically speaking) replacement candidate is Harris, and we can't even convince ourselves that she would do better, so it's a tough sell.
If biden refuses to jump, he can pushed within 24hrs by the money people. 25th amendment unnecessary.
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.
I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
That sounds sensible
I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman
Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
She won't win any of the swing states.
Is that the polling?
Fair enough
Jfc the democrats have got themselves in a right old pickle. Perhaps they should have been more honest with voters and themselves a year ago when it was already being pointed out that Biden was in speedy decline. Instead they decided to lie and to gaslight everyone. Generally, that doesn’t work out well
Jill Biden has to take a lot of the blame for this mess imho.
Unless - as @Theuniondivvie has perceptively pointed out - Joe Biden himself is the issue. Demented people can be just as stubborn - more stubborn? Less open to persuasion? - than sane people
Perhaps she’s tried and he’s not having any of it. And he can’t see the issue because he’s demented
What the heck do you do then??
I'd guess that her plan - and maybe that of the Dems more widely - was for him to display his Trump-beating credentials for a second time, and then step down (or be retired) and hand over to the VP, in true Sian Berry style. Sadly it looks as if his health is working to a faster timetable.
Jill Biden looked as demented as Joe in that clip from the post debate party. Just demented in a different way.
Is that this? It is incredible. And quite disturbing
Seems like Biden has blown it. Not unpredictable. I must say if Trump now wins thank goodness Starmer and not Sunak will be in charge. Despite his appearance of pusillanimity underneath we know him to be a committed European and if ever we'll have needed to be part of a united Europe this is the time
If ever we need proof of why we do not want or need a united Europe, Trump is it.
The key to success is redundancy. The "Swiss Cheese" model of having fail-safes and multiple layers of protection.
Dozens of European nations working together in peaceful co-operation is better than a united Europe who could be led by a Trump - or a Merkel.
When Germany was refusing to support Ukraine earlier in the build up to the war (and they've considerably changed since and deserve great credit for that) other European nations including the UK, Poland and others stepped up to the plate along with the US.
If the US is not dependable, then I'd rather have dozens of European allies that we can co-operate with those who are willing, than have a single point of failure where a Merkel says "no we're not doing that" and there's no redundancy or fail-safe.
I don't know what anyone sees in Harris as a replacement. Feels like after selecting biden by default they probably should then just do the same and pick the easiest possible replacement. I also don't believe the US will vote for someone who isn't white and is a woman. Well one that isn't called Michelle O.
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.
I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
That sounds sensible
I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman
Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
She won't win any of the swing states.
Is that the polling?
Fair enough
Jfc the democrats have got themselves in a right old pickle. Perhaps they should have been more honest with voters and themselves a year ago when it was already being pointed out that Biden was in speedy decline. Instead they decided to lie and to gaslight everyone. Generally, that doesn’t work out well
Jill Biden has to take a lot of the blame for this mess imho.
Unless - as @Theuniondivvie has perceptively pointed out - Joe Biden himself is the issue. Demented people can be just as stubborn - more stubborn? Less open to persuasion? - than sane people
Perhaps she’s tried and he’s not having any of it. And he can’t see the issue because he’s demented
What the heck do you do then??
I'd guess that her plan - and maybe that of the Dems more widely - was for him to display his Trump-beating credentials for a second time, and then step down (or be retired) and hand over to the VP, in true Sian Berry style. Sadly it looks as if his health is working to a faster timetable.
Jill Biden looked as demented as Joe in that clip from the post debate party. Just demented in a different way.
Mr. Chameleon, on the 'woman' angle: the only reason Hillary Clinton lost is because she screwed it up. A more sensible approach of spending time in battlegrounds rather than California and not describing voters as a basket of deplorables would've been enough. She got really close, even with those dumb calls.
Completely off topic personal news but got a couple of reasons to celebrate. Had an interview last week for a new job and have been offered and accepted the job which I'm looking to starting.
And separately, after eight months on my carnivore diet I have now lost 54lbs (24.5kg, nearly 4 stone). I am now pleased to say I have 'beaten' obesity and am well clear of the threshold for being obese. I set originally the target of losing 70lbs which will mean I'm no longer overweight at all if I can achieve that, let alone obese.
Well done on both counts. Keep at it but don't panic if you bob up a bit it would only be natural. Losing weight is the most miserable thing and 4 stone is a huge amount, literally. Most people revert, sadly, once they have been on a diet so now the challenge is to find a mode of living and eating whereby you don't feel the need to eat in the way that you had done pre-weight loss.
Thanks, yeah. It has bobbed up and down over the past eight months, with the odd plateaus too, but the long-term trend has been one-way.
I think everyone is different and everyone needs to find something that works for them and they can sustain, which is why facile things like "just eat less and move more" is like saying to pilot a jet you just need to "decide where you want to go, go up in the air, then get there".
I've never been addicted to smoking or anything else, but I now think that battling your weight is kind of like battling an addiction. When I was eating carbs I would be very hungry and craving food not many hours after having eaten, which is caused by biology and how it affects some people.
Cutting out carbs, I no longer have the cravings, I very rarely get hungry and typically only eat because I know its time to eat and not because I'm "starving" and need to eat.
The danger is going to be if I reintroduce carbs and the cravings come back, but to be honest I don't really miss them anyway. My dad was a vegetarian for decades until he got diabetes (which is what motivated me to lose the weight) and he switched from eating a vegetarian diet to more protein/meat based (but not as extreme as me). I don't really miss carbs, besides sushi which I'll probably allow myself as a "cheat" from time to time once I'm looking to maintain my weight rather than lose anymore.
Yes v sensible. Make sure you have enough treats. A problem with losing weight is that you end up obsessed by the very thing you want to avoid - ie food. If you set yourself treats along the way it becomes much easier. And if you have got to the position where you can take it or leave it then it really does look like job done.
To be honest, its hard to live on a diet where my main meal may be a steak with some blue cheese and think "I'm missing out on treats".
Completely off topic personal news but got a couple of reasons to celebrate. Had an interview last week for a new job and have been offered and accepted the job which I'm looking to starting.
And separately, after eight months on my carnivore diet I have now lost 54lbs (24.5kg, nearly 4 stone). I am now pleased to say I have 'beaten' obesity and am well clear of the threshold for being obese. I set originally the target of losing 70lbs which will mean I'm no longer overweight at all if I can achieve that, let alone obese.
Well done! I’m three stone down after quitting drinking six months ago (for balance I should add that’s without any animal products in my diet ).
Congrats on the job as well.
Fantastic both of you. I'm now 24 kg lighter than I was at the start of the year. We rule!
Labour will force every borough to take its fair share of migrants and all successful Asylum seekers will be prioritised for social housing.
This is a positive move. It is not acceptable that for too long these people have just been dumped in places like Rochdale, Middlesbrough and Gateshead where housing is dirt cheap. It is good and will reduce the costs of these people being dumped in hotels.
I think Labour will be positive on this. I also think an amnesty is not a bad thing.
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.
I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
That sounds sensible
I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman
Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
She won't win any of the swing states.
Is that the polling?
Fair enough
Jfc the democrats have got themselves in a right old pickle. Perhaps they should have been more honest with voters and themselves a year ago when it was already being pointed out that Biden was in speedy decline. Instead they decided to lie and to gaslight everyone. Generally, that doesn’t work out well
Jill Biden has to take a lot of the blame for this mess imho.
Unless - as @Theuniondivvie has perceptively pointed out - Joe Biden himself is the issue. Demented people can be just as stubborn - more stubborn? Less open to persuasion? - than sane people
Perhaps she’s tried and he’s not having any of it. And he can’t see the issue because he’s demented
What the heck do you do then??
I'd guess that her plan - and maybe that of the Dems more widely - was for him to display his Trump-beating credentials for a second time, and then step down (or be retired) and hand over to the VP, in true Sian Berry style. Sadly it looks as if his health is working to a faster timetable.
Jill Biden looked as demented as Joe in that clip from the post debate party. Just demented in a different way.
I've been saying for a long time that the smart play for those who think the Democrats will win the election is to lay Trump. It covers all eventualities except one.
Completely off topic personal news but got a couple of reasons to celebrate. Had an interview last week for a new job and have been offered and accepted the job which I'm looking to starting.
And separately, after eight months on my carnivore diet I have now lost 54lbs (24.5kg, nearly 4 stone). I am now pleased to say I have 'beaten' obesity and am well clear of the threshold for being obese. I set originally the target of losing 70lbs which will mean I'm no longer overweight at all if I can achieve that, let alone obese.
Well done! I’m three stone down after quitting drinking six months ago (for balance I should add that’s without any animal products in my diet ).
Congrats on the job as well.
Fantastic both of you. I'm now 24 kg lighter than I was at the start of the year. We rule!
You don't have to deliver the entire constituency yourself...
Labour will force every borough to take its fair share of migrants and all successful Asylum seekers will be prioritised for social housing.
This is a positive move. It is not acceptable that for too long these people have just been dumped in places like Rochdale, Middlesbrough and Gateshead where housing is dirt cheap. It is good and will reduce the costs of these people being dumped in hotels.
I think Labour will be positive on this. I also think an amnesty is not a bad thing.
Cracking, lovely to see the next government is really focused on improving the lives of the British people, not illegal economic migrants.
On the plus side this will probably be radicalising enough that by 2030 we'll be up for a serious discussion on using Ascension island as our version of Nauru.
Completely off topic personal news but got a couple of reasons to celebrate. Had an interview last week for a new job and have been offered and accepted the job which I'm looking to starting.
And separately, after eight months on my carnivore diet I have now lost 54lbs (24.5kg, nearly 4 stone). I am now pleased to say I have 'beaten' obesity and am well clear of the threshold for being obese. I set originally the target of losing 70lbs which will mean I'm no longer overweight at all if I can achieve that, let alone obese.
Well done! I’m three stone down after quitting drinking six months ago (for balance I should add that’s without any animal products in my diet ).
Congrats on the job as well.
Fantastic both of you. I'm now 24 kg lighter than I was at the start of the year. We rule!
That's really great and to you too Ghedebrav and SandyRentool (and anyone I missed).
Quite a few PBers seem to be doing quite well on this front this year. This is the only year I've seen PBers celebrating how many pounds they've lost.
Labour will force every borough to take its fair share of migrants and all successful Asylum seekers will be prioritised for social housing.
This is a positive move. It is not acceptable that for too long these people have just been dumped in places like Rochdale, Middlesbrough and Gateshead where housing is dirt cheap. It is good and will reduce the costs of these people being dumped in hotels.
I think Labour will be positive on this. I also think an amnesty is not a bad thing.
That will become SPECTACULARLY unpopular very very quickly
(Tho I entirely agree the present situation is hugely unfair on a few benighted places)
My sense is that Labour will fail to get any grip on migration or asylum, indeed they will possibly make it WORSE and that they could implode over this issue in the first year or two
Given recent events on PB perhaps this isn’t the best place to throw insults about dementia or make amateur guesses about dementia when you’re not qualified to do so.
Electoral Calculus has revised/updated its forecast and it looks interesting (LibDems HMMLO and Reform on a more realistic six seats (vs 19 previously)
Edit: sorry for going off topic into UK politics (there's a PB apology for you).
But many of their predictions look bizarre, and out of line with all the others - for example they have the LibDems taking Labour Cambridge and Labour Bermondsey, neither of which seems remotely likely?
EC's prediction is still that the LDs (6 seats ahead of Con) will be HMLO, and Davey LOTO. I wouldn't mind at all if this happened, but I don't think it will.
The 6 Reform seats according to Electoral Calculus.
Clacton Reform 72, Con 19, Lab 9 Barnsley South Reform 70, Lab 30 Boston & Skegness Reform 61, Con 21, Lab 18 Ashfield Reform 64, Lab 29, Con 6 Skipton & Ripon Reform 57,Con 14, Lab 29 Louth & Horncastle 37% (Lab 33, Con 30)
In previous elections, I thought laying Michelle Obama for the Presidency was smart - tipped by many on here regularly at good odds.
This year, however, I was against it - because I thought there was actually a chance.
And we might be seeing why.
If you want to ditch Harris, it goes over much better with your Democrat base to pick another black woman.
She can be continuity Obama/Biden without the flaws - which might be enough against Trump.
I remember in 2020 a lot of American pundits suggesting that Michelle would win 400+ seats against Trump, either as Biden’s VP or herself. I’m not sure *that* much but I see the logic.
If Trump knocks her lack of experience, she can easily say “Donald you were a reality TV star before becoming President, whereas I did XYZ in the White House…”
I also think, in 2020, we saw how Barack Obama had the clout to unite the party behind Biden against Bernie. In 2024, he is perhaps uniquely placed to tell his old friend Joe it’s time to stand aside - and to encourage his wife, who might be reluctant to do it, that she needs to ‘Save America’.
Michelle Obama for President also allows you to pick a safe pair of hands as a VP candidate, which might bolster the ticket overall. E.g. Newsom for President might be seen as supplanting Harris in a negative manner. But Obama / Newsom might be more palatable.
To be honest I still think Harris is more likely than the above but you cannot rule it out and I think laying Michelle for President is bad at the odds quoted.
Last night showed Biden may be toast, but also, this is not the Trump of 2016 or 2020. He is more beatable than he seems right now.
The last Harris vs Trump poll has Trump winning by 47-42 (same poll has Trump beating Biden 46-44).
If there has been any attempt to persuade Biden to stand down, these kinds of polls would have persuaded him that he is the best person to beat Trump again.
Last night's locals obviously signed a don't scare the horses waiver as they were entirely unsurprising in either result or vote share, 2 Lab holds and an indy hold.
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.
I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
That sounds sensible
I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman
Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
She won't win any of the swing states.
Is that the polling?
Fair enough
Jfc the democrats have got themselves in a right old pickle. Perhaps they should have been more honest with voters and themselves a year ago when it was already being pointed out that Biden was in speedy decline. Instead they decided to lie and to gaslight everyone. Generally, that doesn’t work out well
Jill Biden has to take a lot of the blame for this mess imho.
Unless - as @Theuniondivvie has perceptively pointed out - Joe Biden himself is the issue. Demented people can be just as stubborn - more stubborn? Less open to persuasion? - than sane people
Perhaps she’s tried and he’s not having any of it. And he can’t see the issue because he’s demented
What the heck do you do then??
I'd guess that her plan - and maybe that of the Dems more widely - was for him to display his Trump-beating credentials for a second time, and then step down (or be retired) and hand over to the VP, in true Sian Berry style. Sadly it looks as if his health is working to a faster timetable.
Jill Biden looked as demented as Joe in that clip from the post debate party. Just demented in a different way.
Is that this? It is incredible. And quite disturbing
Given recent events on PB perhaps this isn’t the best place to throw insults about dementia or make amateur guesses about dementia when you’re not qualified to do so.
We all, of course, see your point - but how else do we discuss last night? If we aren’t allowed to use these words? Everyone in the American media is now openly using them - even the Biden friendly media
Electoral Calculus has revised/updated its forecast and it looks interesting (LibDems HMMLO and Reform on a more realistic six seats (vs 19 previously)
Edit: sorry for going off topic into UK politics (there's a PB apology for you).
But many of their predictions look bizarre, and out of line with all the others - for example they have the LibDems taking Labour Cambridge and Labour Bermondsey, neither of which seems remotely likely?
EC's prediction is still that the LDs (6 seats ahead of Con) will be HMLO, and Davey LOTO. I wouldn't mind at all if this happened, but I don't think it will.
The 6 Reform seats according to Electoral Calculus.
Clacton Reform 72, Con 19, Lab 9 Barnsley South Reform 70, Lab 30 Boston & Skegness Reform 61, Con 21, Lab 18 Ashfield Reform 64, Lab 29, Con 6 Skipton & Ripon Reform 57,Con 14, Lab 29 Louth & Horncastle 37% (Lab 33, Con 30)
That looks more credible than some of their other predictions
Labour will force every borough to take its fair share of migrants and all successful Asylum seekers will be prioritised for social housing.
This is a positive move. It is not acceptable that for too long these people have just been dumped in places like Rochdale, Middlesbrough and Gateshead where housing is dirt cheap. It is good and will reduce the costs of these people being dumped in hotels.
I think Labour will be positive on this. I also think an amnesty is not a bad thing.
That will become SPECTACULARLY unpopular very very quickly
(Tho I entirely agree the present situation is hugely unfair on a few benighted places)
My sense is that Labour will fail to get any grip on migration or asylum, indeed they will possibly make it WORSE and that they could implode over this issue in the first year or two
With Farage doing in the commons what he used to do in the European Parliament.
Electoral Calculus has revised/updated its forecast and it looks interesting (LibDems HMMLO and Reform on a more realistic six seats (vs 19 previously)
Edit: sorry for going off topic into UK politics (there's a PB apology for you).
But many of their predictions look bizarre, and out of line with all the others - for example they have the LibDems taking Labour Cambridge and Labour Bermondsey, neither of which seems remotely likely?
EC's prediction is still that the LDs (6 seats ahead of Con) will be HMLO, and Davey LOTO. I wouldn't mind at all if this happened, but I don't think it will.
The 6 Reform seats according to Electoral Calculus.
Clacton Reform 72, Con 19, Lab 9 Barnsley South Reform 70, Lab 30 Boston & Skegness Reform 61, Con 21, Lab 18 Ashfield Reform 64, Lab 29, Con 6 Skipton & Ripon Reform 57,Con 14, Lab 29 Louth & Horncastle 37% (Lab 33, Con 30)
Hmm. Skipton & Ripon 57% Reform? Difficult to make heads or tails of any of this when you get forecasts like that.
On Leon’s mockery of people who point out that Biden has a stammer I feel I should point out that I have a stammer which is worsened by stress and (unusually) alcohol. At my worst I would be less coherent than Biden was last night. The worst thing is that because you desperately try to substitute any word you can actually get out it makes you sound stupid. I’m youngish so people don’t attribute it to senility but I could see how they could if I were older.
As it happens I also think that Biden has other related issues too but that doesn’t mean his stammer is still not a problem.
We had a boy at my prep school who had a bad stammer and the treatment he got from our form teacher was so shocking I find it haunting to think about to this day.
Given recent events on PB perhaps this isn’t the best place to throw insults about dementia or make amateur guesses about dementia when you’re not qualified to do so.
We all, of course, see your point - but how else do we discuss last night? If we aren’t allowed to use these words? Everyone in the American media is now openly using them - even the Biden friendly media
Doddery, old, slow, forgetful - plenty of words to use other than dementia.
To be honest the clips I've seen remind me of my late grandad, who did not have dementia but who was increasingly slow and forgetful and could lose his place more easily.
Dementia is something different and although I didn't watch the debate I've seen no signs of that in any of the debates, I just see a frail old man who is past it.
Electoral Calculus has revised/updated its forecast and it looks interesting (LibDems HMMLO and Reform on a more realistic six seats (vs 19 previously)
Edit: sorry for going off topic into UK politics (there's a PB apology for you).
But many of their predictions look bizarre, and out of line with all the others - for example they have the LibDems taking Labour Cambridge and Labour Bermondsey, neither of which seems remotely likely?
EC's prediction is still that the LDs (6 seats ahead of Con) will be HMLO, and Davey LOTO. I wouldn't mind at all if this happened, but I don't think it will.
The 6 Reform seats according to Electoral Calculus.
Clacton Reform 72, Con 19, Lab 9 Barnsley South Reform 70, Lab 30 Boston & Skegness Reform 61, Con 21, Lab 18 Ashfield Reform 64, Lab 29, Con 6 Skipton & Ripon Reform 57,Con 14, Lab 29 Louth & Horncastle 37% (Lab 33, Con 30)
That looks more credible than some of their other predictions
As noted and tbf to them they had Reform on 19 seats until this morning so they are evidently thinking carefully about it.
In previous elections, I thought laying Michelle Obama for the Presidency was smart - tipped by many on here regularly at good odds.
This year, however, I was against it - because I thought there was actually a chance.
And we might be seeing why.
If you want to ditch Harris, it goes over much better with your Democrat base to pick another black woman.
She can be continuity Obama/Biden without the flaws - which might be enough against Trump.
I remember in 2020 a lot of American pundits suggesting that Michelle would win 400+ seats against Trump, either as Biden’s VP or herself. I’m not sure *that* much but I see the logic.
If Trump knocks her lack of experience, she can easily say “Donald you were a reality TV star before becoming President, whereas I did XYZ in the White House…”
I also think, in 2020, we saw how Barack Obama had the clout to unite the party behind Biden against Bernie. In 2024, he is perhaps uniquely placed to tell his old friend Joe it’s time to stand aside - and to encourage his wife, who might be reluctant to do it, that she needs to ‘Save America’.
Michelle Obama for President also allows you to pick a safe pair of hands as a VP candidate, which might bolster the ticket overall. E.g. Newsom for President might be seen as supplanting Harris in a negative manner. But Obama / Newsom might be more palatable.
To be honest I still think Harris is more likely than the above but you cannot rule it out and I think laying Michelle for President is bad at the odds quoted.
Last night showed Biden may be toast, but also, this is not the Trump of 2016 or 2020. He is more beatable than he seems right now.
The last Harris vs Trump poll has Trump winning by 47-42 (same poll has Trump beating Biden 46-44).
If there has been any attempt to persuade Biden to stand down, these kinds of polls would have persuaded him that he is the best person to beat Trump again.
Basically roughly the same as Biden, but likely much more able to campaign vigorously, and if Trump agreed to further debates, able to take him on 1:1 more aggressively. And more popular than Harris it seems. I think that’s not half bad!
Electoral Calculus has revised/updated its forecast and it looks interesting (LibDems HMMLO and Reform on a more realistic six seats (vs 19 previously)
Edit: sorry for going off topic into UK politics (there's a PB apology for you).
But many of their predictions look bizarre, and out of line with all the others - for example they have the LibDems taking Labour Cambridge and Labour Bermondsey, neither of which seems remotely likely?
EC's prediction is still that the LDs (6 seats ahead of Con) will be HMLO, and Davey LOTO. I wouldn't mind at all if this happened, but I don't think it will.
The 6 Reform seats according to Electoral Calculus.
Clacton Reform 72, Con 19, Lab 9 Barnsley South Reform 70, Lab 30 Boston & Skegness Reform 61, Con 21, Lab 18 Ashfield Reform 64, Lab 29, Con 6 Skipton & Ripon Reform 57,Con 14, Lab 29 Louth & Horncastle 37% (Lab 33, Con 30)
Hmm. Skipton & Ripon 57% Reform? Difficult to make heads or tails of any of this when you get forecasts like that.
I pulled up that one on Tuesday - Skipton / Ripon ain't going Reform...
Actually I'm going past Ripon tomorrow morning - will call in on the way back to have a look round and see what posters exist.
Edit 2 - the only issue I see is that the Lib Dems didn't stand in 2017 and supported the Green party. Given that I think it's a possible Labour win from a 23,000 Tory majority...
Labour will force every borough to take its fair share of migrants and all successful Asylum seekers will be prioritised for social housing.
This is a positive move. It is not acceptable that for too long these people have just been dumped in places like Rochdale, Middlesbrough and Gateshead where housing is dirt cheap. It is good and will reduce the costs of these people being dumped in hotels.
I think Labour will be positive on this. I also think an amnesty is not a bad thing.
Cracking, lovely to see the next government is really focused on improving the lives of the British people, not illegal economic migrants.
On the plus side this will probably be radicalising enough that by 2030 we'll be up for a serious discussion on using Ascension island as our version of Nauru.
It’s incredible isn’t it?
I now foresee the following chain of events as quite likely: Labour lose all control of migration and asylum, the boats get worse, this is accompanied by storms of Wokeness which enrage everyone
Labour do ok things but all these are drowned out by the above. Public anger is incendiary
Labour collapse in the polls and a new populist right party - either the Tories rebranded, some merger with reform, or something else - surges in opposition. The hard right wins and takes over in 2028
All avoidable. But this is where we’re headed. Just as the Joe Biden disaster was avoidable but no one did anything
Mr. Chameleon, on the 'woman' angle: the only reason Hillary Clinton lost is because she screwed it up. A more sensible approach of spending time in battlegrounds rather than California and not describing voters as a basket of deplorables would've been enough. She got really close, even with those dumb calls.
Yet Biden didn't improve on Clinton's margin against Trump in places like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania more than he did nationally.
In fact:
National margin: Biden 2.4% better than Clinton Wisconsin (tipping point state both times) margin: Biden 1.4% better than Clinton
Given that Goodwin gave a speech on Weds 26th at Unherd urging everyone to vote for Reform, and the previous poll of his, I daresay he might just post a poll with Reform on a ridiculously high figure in the hopes that it boosts their turnout.
Electoral Calculus has revised/updated its forecast and it looks interesting (LibDems HMMLO and Reform on a more realistic six seats (vs 19 previously)
Edit: sorry for going off topic into UK politics (there's a PB apology for you).
But many of their predictions look bizarre, and out of line with all the others - for example they have the LibDems taking Labour Cambridge and Labour Bermondsey, neither of which seems remotely likely?
EC's prediction is still that the LDs (6 seats ahead of Con) will be HMLO, and Davey LOTO. I wouldn't mind at all if this happened, but I don't think it will.
The 6 Reform seats according to Electoral Calculus.
Clacton Reform 72, Con 19, Lab 9 Barnsley South Reform 70, Lab 30 Boston & Skegness Reform 61, Con 21, Lab 18 Ashfield Reform 64, Lab 29, Con 6 Skipton & Ripon Reform 57,Con 14, Lab 29 Louth & Horncastle 37% (Lab 33, Con 30)
Hmm. Skipton & Ripon 57% Reform? Difficult to make heads or tails of any of this when you get forecasts like that.
I pulled up that one on Tuesday - Skipton / Ripon ain't going Reform...
Actually I'm going past Ripon tomorrow morning - will call in on the way back to have a look round and see what posters exist.
The inclusion of Ashfield is a sign to me that this is the result of how EC is considering independent/small party votes as a proxy for future Brexit party support. Skipton and Louth both had small but non-zero small party votes last time.
That will become SPECTACULARLY unpopular very very quickly
(Tho I entirely agree the present situation is hugely unfair on a few benighted places)
My sense is that Labour will fail to get any grip on migration or asylum, indeed they will possibly make it WORSE and that they could implode over this issue in the first year or two
There is no will in the Labour Party to reduce immigration the way the people want, even if there was it would cause a whole load of issues for other problems Labour want to tackle like staffing the NHS. So in all likelihood the issue will remain a large problem for Labour and make the government unpopular. All Labour might do is make the system run a bit faster and smoother, but I doubt that there will be a big change in the level of immigration, and there are good reasons to think things will get worse.
Given recent events on PB perhaps this isn’t the best place to throw insults about dementia or make amateur guesses about dementia when you’re not qualified to do so.
We all, of course, see your point - but how else do we discuss last night? If we aren’t allowed to use these words? Everyone in the American media is now openly using them - even the Biden friendly media
Doddery, old, slow, forgetful - plenty of words to use other than dementia.
To be honest the clips I've seen remind me of my late grandad, who did not have dementia but who was increasingly slow and forgetful and could lose his place more easily.
Dementia is something different and although I didn't watch the debate I've seen no signs of that in any of the debates, I just see a frail old man who is past it.
There is age related memory loss that is quite normal but affects some more than others.
The difference is that with age related memory loss you forget things in conversation but eventually remember (usually too late) with it far more noticable if tired. But are very aware of forgetting things and do things like keep lists of things you have to do.
With dementia the memory is destroyed, gone forever. You keep a list of things to remember, forget you had the list and get annoyed with anyone who tries to point out its existence.
To give a computer analogy. Dementia is a failing hard drive with more and more bad sectors. Age related memory loss is the data bus getting narrower and slower but the data hasn't been lost.
Labour will force every borough to take its fair share of migrants and all successful Asylum seekers will be prioritised for social housing.
This is a positive move. It is not acceptable that for too long these people have just been dumped in places like Rochdale, Middlesbrough and Gateshead where housing is dirt cheap. It is good and will reduce the costs of these people being dumped in hotels.
I think Labour will be positive on this. I also think an amnesty is not a bad thing.
Cracking, lovely to see the next government is really focused on improving the lives of the British people, not illegal economic migrants.
On the plus side this will probably be radicalising enough that by 2030 we'll be up for a serious discussion on using Ascension island as our version of Nauru.
It’s incredible isn’t it?
I now foresee the following chain of events as quite likely: Labour lose all control of migration and asylum, the boats get worse, this is accompanied by storms of Wokeness which enrage everyone
Labour do ok things but all these are drowned out by the above. Public anger is incendiary
Labour collapse in the polls and a new populist right party - either the Tories rebranded, some merger with reform, or something else - surges in opposition. The hard right wins and takes over in 2028
All avoidable. But this is where we’re headed. Just as the Joe Biden disaster was avoidable but no one did anything
After last night none of us might make it to 2028 to be honest.
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
Jeez have you really got nothing else going on in your life? It's almost a shame nobody's got the time or will to wade through the floods of runny poo you have been posting on here for years to repost the most idiotic and obnoxious, though it would fill up the comments for many pages.
Yep. You were one of the “Biden is fine, presidents always poop themselves at NATO meetings” people. I’m preparing a spreadsheet of the most insane remarks
Ha, I knew if I provoked you you would waste time searching for some killer quote from me. Hopefully it will keep you quiet a bit longer.
But as I am going away for the weekend please give me my quote now because I can't remember it, and I don't want to miss it.
Dude there are dozens - just from you. Its going to take weeks to repost them all from everyone but luckily I’m brutally cruel and I love gloating when I’m right so I’m prepared to put in the hard yards. Don’t worry you won’t miss anything - there will be plenty more when you return, for several weeks
So you didn't find a single one?
I want to catch you out when you’re not expecting it. More fun that way
Dude, don't give up so easily! I do now remember posting something about Biden that with hindsight must seem so hilariously wrong that it it will definitely be worth your while digging it out! I just can't remember when, but it was definitely some time in the last four years. I'm sure you'll find it eventually.
Er what? I’m not going to do it personally. They have algorithms for this kind of thing now
Go ahead then, if your algorithms already found dozens just from me, it should be easy to post the best of them. Unless you are entirely full of shit.
Electoral Calculus has revised/updated its forecast and it looks interesting (LibDems HMMLO and Reform on a more realistic six seats (vs 19 previously)
Edit: sorry for going off topic into UK politics (there's a PB apology for you).
But many of their predictions look bizarre, and out of line with all the others - for example they have the LibDems taking Labour Cambridge and Labour Bermondsey, neither of which seems remotely likely?
EC's prediction is still that the LDs (6 seats ahead of Con) will be HMLO, and Davey LOTO. I wouldn't mind at all if this happened, but I don't think it will.
The 6 Reform seats according to Electoral Calculus.
Clacton Reform 72, Con 19, Lab 9 Barnsley South Reform 70, Lab 30 Boston & Skegness Reform 61, Con 21, Lab 18 Ashfield Reform 64, Lab 29, Con 6 Skipton & Ripon Reform 57,Con 14, Lab 29 Louth & Horncastle 37% (Lab 33, Con 30)
Skip and Rip???
What are the smoking?
You can't get more Tory than rural North Yorkshire.
Electoral Calculus has revised/updated its forecast and it looks interesting (LibDems HMMLO and Reform on a more realistic six seats (vs 19 previously)
Edit: sorry for going off topic into UK politics (there's a PB apology for you).
But many of their predictions look bizarre, and out of line with all the others - for example they have the LibDems taking Labour Cambridge and Labour Bermondsey, neither of which seems remotely likely?
EC's prediction is still that the LDs (6 seats ahead of Con) will be HMLO, and Davey LOTO. I wouldn't mind at all if this happened, but I don't think it will.
The 6 Reform seats according to Electoral Calculus.
Clacton Reform 72, Con 19, Lab 9 Barnsley South Reform 70, Lab 30 Boston & Skegness Reform 61, Con 21, Lab 18 Ashfield Reform 64, Lab 29, Con 6 Skipton & Ripon Reform 57,Con 14, Lab 29 Louth & Horncastle 37% (Lab 33, Con 30)
Hmm. Skipton & Ripon 57% Reform? Difficult to make heads or tails of any of this when you get forecasts like that.
I pulled up that one on Tuesday - Skipton / Ripon ain't going Reform...
Actually I'm going past Ripon tomorrow morning - will call in on the way back to have a look round and see what posters exist.
The inclusion of Ashfield is a sign to me that this is the result of how EC is considering independent/small party votes as a proxy for future Brexit party support. Skipton and Louth both had small but non-zero small party votes last time.
Yep - the Yorkshire party got 1,131 votes but they are standing again this time.
It's simply not a Reform area - way, way too wealthy.
It's too late to change from Biden. If they thought they had an option to go for someone else, well, they still might have arrived at this point because taking down an incumbent is very difficult. There's no consensus on who would pick up the baton either, even though Harris is obvious.
I think the USA will really do it, they'll elect Trump again, and he's an unstable, idiotic, vindictive, criminal. Nothing he says or does appears to bother 45% of the country, and the 5-10% swayable voters may not be fans but don't fear him either, as they should.
Btw I’ve been going over the history of “Biden is senile, no he’s not” arguments - the best of them are hilarious, I’ll post later - but I’ve noted how lucid and articulate you’ve been on this for many months. You said it a year ago and six months ago. “Biden is losing his mind and this is bad, people are in denial”
So well done you. Seriously
Also @Luckyguy1983 - absolutely clear that Biden is senile and was roundly abused on here for saying it. Deserves an apology
The betting point - who will be the nominees, and whether the eventual winner will be Biden/Trump or someone else, is still very much in play.
I've been advocating, and betting, against Trump and Biden both as nominee and next president for a long time - probably for two years, now. As the election approaches and both Biden and Trump remain in place, there's growing incredulity. The beauty of laying them both for next president is that if one of them wins, the loss is only small, but if a third person gets the job you do win big. But laying them both for nominee is a risky and currently losing position. If Biden gets replaced, I'll still have the loss on Trump getting the nom for the GOP. If both of them get replaced, all of these long-standing bets pay off. One can only hope.
That sounds sensible
I don’t understand the animosity to Harris. She’s definitely not the brightest person in Washington but she’s still fairly lucid and also sane, which is better than either Trump or Biden. At her best she can be quite impressive. She’d be a difficult opponent for Trump - a black woman
Why are so many democrats allergic to her? Does she have some issue we cannot see?
She won't win any of the swing states.
Is that the polling?
Fair enough
Jfc the democrats have got themselves in a right old pickle. Perhaps they should have been more honest with voters and themselves a year ago when it was already being pointed out that Biden was in speedy decline. Instead they decided to lie and to gaslight everyone. Generally, that doesn’t work out well
Jill Biden has to take a lot of the blame for this mess imho.
Unless - as @Theuniondivvie has perceptively pointed out - Joe Biden himself is the issue. Demented people can be just as stubborn - more stubborn? Less open to persuasion? - than sane people
Perhaps she’s tried and he’s not having any of it. And he can’t see the issue because he’s demented
What the heck do you do then??
I'd guess that her plan - and maybe that of the Dems more widely - was for him to display his Trump-beating credentials for a second time, and then step down (or be retired) and hand over to the VP, in true Sian Berry style. Sadly it looks as if his health is working to a faster timetable.
Jill Biden looked as demented as Joe in that clip from the post debate party. Just demented in a different way.
Is that this? It is incredible. And quite disturbing
Labour will force every borough to take its fair share of migrants and all successful Asylum seekers will be prioritised for social housing.
This is a positive move. It is not acceptable that for too long these people have just been dumped in places like Rochdale, Middlesbrough and Gateshead where housing is dirt cheap. It is good and will reduce the costs of these people being dumped in hotels.
I think Labour will be positive on this. I also think an amnesty is not a bad thing.
Given recent events on PB perhaps this isn’t the best place to throw insults about dementia or make amateur guesses about dementia when you’re not qualified to do so.
We all, of course, see your point - but how else do we discuss last night? If we aren’t allowed to use these words? Everyone in the American media is now openly using them - even the Biden friendly media
Doddery, old, slow, forgetful - plenty of words to use other than dementia.
To be honest the clips I've seen remind me of my late grandad, who did not have dementia but who was increasingly slow and forgetful and could lose his place more easily.
Dementia is something different and although I didn't watch the debate I've seen no signs of that in any of the debates, I just see a frail old man who is past it.
I'd agree with that. My father had dementia for many years before his death. I'm not medically qualified to assess it, obviously, but I don't see the same in Biden.
But his political opponents - as has Leon - will reach for the word as a shorthand anyway, and there's little or nothing the Democrats can do about that.
(Mike himself was strongly of the opinion that Biden was too old to run for a second term, of course.)
Labour will force every borough to take its fair share of migrants and all successful Asylum seekers will be prioritised for social housing.
This is a positive move. It is not acceptable that for too long these people have just been dumped in places like Rochdale, Middlesbrough and Gateshead where housing is dirt cheap. It is good and will reduce the costs of these people being dumped in hotels.
I think Labour will be positive on this. I also think an amnesty is not a bad thing.
When I was at RMAS we did a night exercise on Salisbury Plain. There was a guy who had a stammer in the platoon and sometimes it was good and sometimes it was bad.
He was appointed platoon commander for the night phase and was in the middle of giving orders to us all when the Queen walked in, on a visit to the range area (no idea why she was doing it so late but there you are). She asked him something and he couldn't reply. He just stood there, silent, trying to get a word out.
After about 30 seconds (an eternity) someone else in the platoon said "what he is trying to say is..." and at that the Queen turned and gave him (the interrupting guy) a huge bollocking, telling us all to wait and that the words would come. Which they did shortly afterwards, which she listened to intently before thanking him and heading off.
I will be taking questions about the socio-political implications of this story during my forthcoming podcast.
Labour will force every borough to take its fair share of migrants and all successful Asylum seekers will be prioritised for social housing.
This is a positive move. It is not acceptable that for too long these people have just been dumped in places like Rochdale, Middlesbrough and Gateshead where housing is dirt cheap. It is good and will reduce the costs of these people being dumped in hotels.
I think Labour will be positive on this. I also think an amnesty is not a bad thing.
I am actually quite upbeat on learning about Biden's disasterous performance last night.
Trump was already clear favourite for the polling and to turn it around the Democrats were relying on a candidate whose mental facilities were in visible and rapid decline. The danger to the Democrats was that Biden was somehow able to soldier on for two or three more months and then inevitably put in a performance like last night's at a point when it was far too late to replace him.
The early debate has worked out in the Democrats' favour, and Trump will in a week's time be regretting having agreed to it. That is, the Democrats will now be forced to press the reset button with over four months to go still and put in place a new fresh candidate who has every opportunity of beating Trump in November.
Completely off topic personal news but got a couple of reasons to celebrate. Had an interview last week for a new job and have been offered and accepted the job which I'm looking to starting.
And separately, after eight months on my carnivore diet I have now lost 54lbs (24.5kg, nearly 4 stone). I am now pleased to say I have 'beaten' obesity and am well clear of the threshold for being obese. I set originally the target of losing 70lbs which will mean I'm no longer overweight at all if I can achieve that, let alone obese.
Well done on both counts. Keep at it but don't panic if you bob up a bit it would only be natural. Losing weight is the most miserable thing and 4 stone is a huge amount, literally. Most people revert, sadly, once they have been on a diet so now the challenge is to find a mode of living and eating whereby you don't feel the need to eat in the way that you had done pre-weight loss.
Thanks, yeah. It has bobbed up and down over the past eight months, with the odd plateaus too, but the long-term trend has been one-way.
I think everyone is different and everyone needs to find something that works for them and they can sustain, which is why facile things like "just eat less and move more" is like saying to pilot a jet you just need to "decide where you want to go, go up in the air, then get there".
I've never been addicted to smoking or anything else, but I now think that battling your weight is kind of like battling an addiction. When I was eating carbs I would be very hungry and craving food not many hours after having eaten, which is caused by biology and how it affects some people.
Cutting out carbs, I no longer have the cravings, I very rarely get hungry and typically only eat because I know its time to eat and not because I'm "starving" and need to eat.
The danger is going to be if I reintroduce carbs and the cravings come back, but to be honest I don't really miss them anyway. My dad was a vegetarian for decades until he got diabetes (which is what motivated me to lose the weight) and he switched from eating a vegetarian diet to more protein/meat based (but not as extreme as me). I don't really miss carbs, besides sushi which I'll probably allow myself as a "cheat" from time to time once I'm looking to maintain my weight rather than lose anymore.
A colleague has been on and off ozempic equivalents (supply issues mainly) and hates it. He had it for diabetes, and it is brutally effective. It stops him eating. He has no appetite, gets really full quickly and cannot drink beer anymore. Result is rapid weight loss to the point where he will need to stop the drug because his BMI will be below 25.
I can see why people want to use this drug to lose weight. It works. But I also recall the old saying "if you only drink water and eat lettuce you won't live forever, but it will feel like it". For a lot of people eating is fun. Take that away and I suspect a lot of people will wonder if its worth it.
'We just used our English pamphlet copy and replaced the Conservatives with the SNP' klaxon. Which pretty much sums up the whole SLD strategy with a bit of added amnesia about all the legislation they supported in Holyrood.
Given recent events on PB perhaps this isn’t the best place to throw insults about dementia or make amateur guesses about dementia when you’re not qualified to do so.
We all, of course, see your point - but how else do we discuss last night? If we aren’t allowed to use these words? Everyone in the American media is now openly using them - even the Biden friendly media
Doddery, old, slow, forgetful - plenty of words to use other than dementia.
To be honest the clips I've seen remind me of my late grandad, who did not have dementia but who was increasingly slow and forgetful and could lose his place more easily.
Dementia is something different and although I didn't watch the debate I've seen no signs of that in any of the debates, I just see a frail old man who is past it.
I’ve seen dementia up close and personal. My poor mother has it now, and her husband has it too (I thank god they are sinking together)
He in particular exhibits all the behaviours we see in Biden. The vacant staring. The incoherent speech. The wandering off. Some of it is identical
However I’ve no wish to upset the mods and if @TSE and @rcs would prefer us to use different words that’s fine and I will obey. The point is made, anyway
Labour will force every borough to take its fair share of migrants and all successful Asylum seekers will be prioritised for social housing.
This is a positive move. It is not acceptable that for too long these people have just been dumped in places like Rochdale, Middlesbrough and Gateshead where housing is dirt cheap. It is good and will reduce the costs of these people being dumped in hotels.
I think Labour will be positive on this. I also think an amnesty is not a bad thing.
Cracking, lovely to see the next government is really focused on improving the lives of the British people, not illegal economic migrants.
On the plus side this will probably be radicalising enough that by 2030 we'll be up for a serious discussion on using Ascension island as our version of Nauru.
It’s incredible isn’t it?
I now foresee the following chain of events as quite likely: Labour lose all control of migration and asylum, the boats get worse, this is accompanied by storms of Wokeness which enrage everyone
Labour do ok things but all these are drowned out by the above. Public anger is incendiary
Labour collapse in the polls and a new populist right party - either the Tories rebranded, some merger with reform, or something else - surges in opposition. The hard right wins and takes over in 2028
All avoidable. But this is where we’re headed. Just as the Joe Biden disaster was avoidable but no one did anything
Bringing the Tories' competence and integrity together with Farage's steady gaffe-free touch could be a winning combination. Maybe.
In previous elections, I thought laying Michelle Obama for the Presidency was smart - tipped by many on here regularly at good odds.
This year, however, I was against it - because I thought there was actually a chance.
And we might be seeing why.
If you want to ditch Harris, it goes over much better with your Democrat base to pick another black woman.
She can be continuity Obama/Biden without the flaws - which might be enough against Trump.
I remember in 2020 a lot of American pundits suggesting that Michelle would win 400+ seats against Trump, either as Biden’s VP or herself. I’m not sure *that* much but I see the logic.
If Trump knocks her lack of experience, she can easily say “Donald you were a reality TV star before becoming President, whereas I did XYZ in the White House…”
I also think, in 2020, we saw how Barack Obama had the clout to unite the party behind Biden against Bernie. In 2024, he is perhaps uniquely placed to tell his old friend Joe it’s time to stand aside - and to encourage his wife, who might be reluctant to do it, that she needs to ‘Save America’.
Michelle Obama for President also allows you to pick a safe pair of hands as a VP candidate, which might bolster the ticket overall. E.g. Newsom for President might be seen as supplanting Harris in a negative manner. But Obama / Newsom might be more palatable.
To be honest I still think Harris is more likely than the above but you cannot rule it out and I think laying Michelle for President is bad at the odds quoted.
Last night showed Biden may be toast, but also, this is not the Trump of 2016 or 2020. He is more beatable than he seems right now.
The last Harris vs Trump poll has Trump winning by 47-42 (same poll has Trump beating Biden 46-44).
If there has been any attempt to persuade Biden to stand down, these kinds of polls would have persuaded him that he is the best person to beat Trump again.
There are, of course, no polls which show an actual alternative nominee against Trump.
Hypotheticals - particularly when they're only a couple of percentage points different - don't really shown anything very useful. At least Harris has run for office before. No one has any idea how Michelle Obama might perform as an actual candidate.
Electoral Calculus has revised/updated its forecast and it looks interesting (LibDems HMMLO and Reform on a more realistic six seats (vs 19 previously)
Edit: sorry for going off topic into UK politics (there's a PB apology for you).
But many of their predictions look bizarre, and out of line with all the others - for example they have the LibDems taking Labour Cambridge and Labour Bermondsey, neither of which seems remotely likely?
EC's prediction is still that the LDs (6 seats ahead of Con) will be HMLO, and Davey LOTO. I wouldn't mind at all if this happened, but I don't think it will.
The 6 Reform seats according to Electoral Calculus.
Clacton Reform 72, Con 19, Lab 9 Barnsley South Reform 70, Lab 30 Boston & Skegness Reform 61, Con 21, Lab 18 Ashfield Reform 64, Lab 29, Con 6 Skipton & Ripon Reform 57,Con 14, Lab 29 Louth & Horncastle 37% (Lab 33, Con 30)
Hmm. Skipton & Ripon 57% Reform? Difficult to make heads or tails of any of this when you get forecasts like that.
I pulled up that one on Tuesday - Skipton / Ripon ain't going Reform...
Actually I'm going past Ripon tomorrow morning - will call in on the way back to have a look round and see what posters exist.
Edit 2 - the only issue I see is that the Lib Dems didn't stand in 2017 and supported the Green party. Given that I think it's a possible Labour win from a 23,000 Tory majority...
I'd be astonished if Reform won there; there must a be dozen or more seats where it's more likely.
I am actually quite upbeat on learning about Biden's disasterous performance last night.
Trump was already clear favourite for the polling and to turn it around the Democrats were relying on a candidate whose mental facilities were in visible and rapid decline. The danger to the Democrats was that Biden was somehow able to soldier on for two or three more months and then inevitably put in a performance like last night's at a point when it was far too late to replace him.
The early debate has worked out in the Democrats' favour, and Trump will in a week's time be regretting having agreed to it. That is, the Democrats will now be forced to press the reset button with over four months to go still and put in place a new fresh candidate who has every opportunity of beating Trump in November.
If you could wave a magic wand and hey presto Andy Beshear is the Dem candidate against Trump, then I think Trump would lose (NB I don't know anything about Andy Beshear, except he is a very popular Democratic governor in a Republican state). But I don't see how we get there.
"The risk for Democrats now is two-fold. The first is that Biden simply refuses to budge. Indeed, that is still the likeliest outcome...If Biden believes he simply had a bad night, he could eat up the precious time Democrats have to elect a replacement. The worst thing he could do is cling on for another few weeks then step down. He would need to make the announcement in the next few days."
"The second risk is that Biden does decide to step aside in good time and the Democratic party descends into civil war."
When I was at RMAS we did a night exercise on Salisbury Plain. There was a guy who had a stammer in the platoon and sometimes it was good and sometimes it was bad.
He was appointed platoon commander for the night phase and was in the middle of giving orders to us all when the Queen walked in, on a visit to the range area (no idea why she was doing it so late but there you are). She asked him something and he couldn't reply. He just stood there, silent, trying to get a word out.
After about 30 seconds (an eternity) someone else in the platoon said "what he is trying to say is..." and at that the Queen turned and gave him (the interrupting guy) a huge bollocking, telling us all to wait and that the words would come. Which they did shortly afterwards, which she listened to intently before thanking him and heading off.
I will be taking questions about the socio-political implications of this story during my forthcoming podcast.
Good story. You can see how characters like this were elevated to deity status in times when storytelling was how history was made. You can imagine it getting embellished and growing over the years. The aspect about her just turning up unannounced on Salisbury Plain in the middle of the night just adds to it. Also, I love that we still all know who you mean by 'the Queen'. I wonder for how long she will remain THE Queen - and all other queens have to be given titles (e.g. names or of...) to differentiate them from THE queen. I feel a bit sorry for "what he is trying to say is..." guy. Presumably his intentions were nothing but helpful, towards both colleague and queen. But that takes nothing away from the story.
Electoral Calculus has revised/updated its forecast and it looks interesting (LibDems HMMLO and Reform on a more realistic six seats (vs 19 previously)
Edit: sorry for going off topic into UK politics (there's a PB apology for you).
But many of their predictions look bizarre, and out of line with all the others - for example they have the LibDems taking Labour Cambridge and Labour Bermondsey, neither of which seems remotely likely?
EC's prediction is still that the LDs (6 seats ahead of Con) will be HMLO, and Davey LOTO. I wouldn't mind at all if this happened, but I don't think it will.
The 6 Reform seats according to Electoral Calculus.
Clacton Reform 72, Con 19, Lab 9 Barnsley South Reform 70, Lab 30 Boston & Skegness Reform 61, Con 21, Lab 18 Ashfield Reform 64, Lab 29, Con 6 Skipton & Ripon Reform 57,Con 14, Lab 29 Louth & Horncastle 37% (Lab 33, Con 30)
Hmm. Skipton & Ripon 57% Reform? Difficult to make heads or tails of any of this when you get forecasts like that.
I pulled up that one on Tuesday - Skipton / Ripon ain't going Reform...
Actually I'm going past Ripon tomorrow morning - will call in on the way back to have a look round and see what posters exist.
The inclusion of Ashfield is a sign to me that this is the result of how EC is considering independent/small party votes as a proxy for future Brexit party support. Skipton and Louth both had small but non-zero small party votes last time.
Skipton and Ripon is the one that I don't get.
Clacton and Boston were 1 and 2 for 2015 UKIP support Ashfield has a fractured landscape and the incumbent is reform. Barnsley South had a very strong Brexit performance in it's predecessor seat last time round - and it's mainly villages surrounding Barnsley, not Barnsley itself where I think Reform/Brexit would be stronger than Labour. I've also had a small bet on them at 8-1 there. Baxter must have some logic to his thinking that it's a good shout too. Louth is a bit more tenuous but Skipton and Ripon was 300th for UKIP vote in 2015, and Ripon seems far too - how can I put this - "middle class" for Reform when I go there to my mind.
Electoral Calculus has revised/updated its forecast and it looks interesting (LibDems HMMLO and Reform on a more realistic six seats (vs 19 previously)
Edit: sorry for going off topic into UK politics (there's a PB apology for you).
But many of their predictions look bizarre, and out of line with all the others - for example they have the LibDems taking Labour Cambridge and Labour Bermondsey, neither of which seems remotely likely?
EC's prediction is still that the LDs (6 seats ahead of Con) will be HMLO, and Davey LOTO. I wouldn't mind at all if this happened, but I don't think it will.
The 6 Reform seats according to Electoral Calculus.
Clacton Reform 72, Con 19, Lab 9 Barnsley South Reform 70, Lab 30 Boston & Skegness Reform 61, Con 21, Lab 18 Ashfield Reform 64, Lab 29, Con 6 Skipton & Ripon Reform 57,Con 14, Lab 29 Louth & Horncastle 37% (Lab 33, Con 30)
Hmm. Skipton & Ripon 57% Reform? Difficult to make heads or tails of any of this when you get forecasts like that.
I pulled up that one on Tuesday - Skipton / Ripon ain't going Reform...
Actually I'm going past Ripon tomorrow morning - will call in on the way back to have a look round and see what posters exist.
Edit 2 - the only issue I see is that the Lib Dems didn't stand in 2017 and supported the Green party. Given that I think it's a possible Labour win from a 23,000 Tory majority...
I'd be astonished if Reform won there; there must a be dozen or more seats where it's more likely.
Castle Point and Great Yarmouth (Farage has been campaigning there)
Electoral Calculus has revised/updated its forecast and it looks interesting (LibDems HMMLO and Reform on a more realistic six seats (vs 19 previously)
Edit: sorry for going off topic into UK politics (there's a PB apology for you).
But many of their predictions look bizarre, and out of line with all the others - for example they have the LibDems taking Labour Cambridge and Labour Bermondsey, neither of which seems remotely likely?
EC's prediction is still that the LDs (6 seats ahead of Con) will be HMLO, and Davey LOTO. I wouldn't mind at all if this happened, but I don't think it will.
The 6 Reform seats according to Electoral Calculus.
Clacton Reform 72, Con 19, Lab 9 Barnsley South Reform 70, Lab 30 Boston & Skegness Reform 61, Con 21, Lab 18 Ashfield Reform 64, Lab 29, Con 6 Skipton & Ripon Reform 57,Con 14, Lab 29 Louth & Horncastle 37% (Lab 33, Con 30)
Pure intuition, but I am very unpersuaded that Louth and Horncastle will go anything other than Tory.
i am greatly amused by Leon's account of the horrors of 2m seas.
In January I was evacuated along with the rest of the crew from the Ocean Great White semi-sub, West of Shetlands. 30m seas and 100 knot winds - though by the time we were evacuated it was down to a mere 17m seas and 70 knots. The waves ripped all the equipment off the bottom if the rig and dropped 1000 tons of riser onto the seafloor and right across the main gas export line.
Mr. Chameleon, on the 'woman' angle: the only reason Hillary Clinton lost is because she screwed it up. A more sensible approach of spending time in battlegrounds rather than California and not describing voters as a basket of deplorables would've been enough. She got really close, even with those dumb calls.
Yet Biden didn't improve on Clinton's margin against Trump in places like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania more than he did nationally.
In fact:
National margin: Biden 2.4% better than Clinton Wisconsin (tipping point state both times) margin: Biden 1.4% better than Clinton
Arizona (11 ECV): Biden 4.78% better than Clinton and had it swung by National Margin then Trump would have won Arizona Georgia (16 ECV) Biden 4.18% better than Clinton and had it swung by the national margin the Trump would have won Georgia Michigan (16 ECV) Biden 3.35% better than Clinton
Biden campaigned more than Clinton in the swing states and got a bigger swing as a result in most of the swing states, winning some of them purely due to that fact.
Blue Wall frontline: These are Conservative-held seats where the Liberal Democrats are the primary challenger and can claim the seat on a swing of 10% or less.
Red Wall defences: These are those former Labour strongholds in the North, Midlands and Wales which the Conservatives infamously flipped (many for the first time) on election night of 2019.
Conservative/Leave redoubts: These are seats which have been solidly Conservative for at least the last four elections, and which all voted Leave to a greater extent that the national average in 2016.
Conservative/Strong Leave seats: These are Conservative seats which have previously been Labour, and where ‘Leave’ won over 65% of the vote in 2016.
Diverse battlegrounds: Local elections, indicated that Labour might see a backlash in those areas of the country with large Asian and Muslim populations, in response to its position on the conflict in Gaza. Meanwhile, there are several Conservative seats where the incumbent’s majority is under 30%, and the Asian population is above 20%.
Graduate-heavy seats: Recent elections have shown that education is now a key dividing line among British voters, with university graduates and those without a degree often having very different political preferences. These are seats which, despite having different levels of socioeconomic development and diversity, have high concentrations of graduates.
Labour breakthrough: These are Conservative-held seats in England where the incumbent has a majority of less than 30%, and Labour came second in 2019. However, Labour has not won the seat since 2005, or maybe ever.
Major change seats: On the back of the 2023 boundary reforms, some constituencies have undergone a huge degree of change, with some being broken up and reallocated between three or four new seats.
SNP/Labour battlegrounds: These are SNP-held seats where the incumbent has less than a 40% majority, and which Labour has held before. Labour is second in almost all these seats.
Traditional swing seats: These constituencies and their predecessors have traditionally been bellwethers.
Comments
Perhaps she’s tried and he’s not having any of it. And he can’t see the issue because he’s demented
What the heck do you do then??
Increase military spending
Reduce dependence upon Russian energy
Instead the policy of GDR Merkel, lauded as a 'more reliable ally', was to:
Reduce military spending
Increase dependence upon Russian energy
I desperately want someone to beat Trump and if that was Biden then great. But it won't be because he is no longer fit to be President and everyone and see that.
There was a whole debate (I think after the state of the Union?) when a lot of PBers were saying “look Biden is fine it was all nonsense he just has a stammer and he wears adult nappies as a fashion statement” and you and @Luckyguy1983 quietly but firmly insisted “no, he’s senile; and it will get worse, and ignoring this is really foolish”
I see lots of losing moves for the Democrats.
I actually think Kamala would be ok at being POTUS and the candidate but apparently it's just me.
Unless he steps down voluntarily, there's now no real mechanism to choose anyone else. NBC has a good summary:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/can-democrats-replace-joe-biden-ballot-rcna159374
If he steps down, then it's up to the vote of several thousand (of what were Biden's) delegates. Picked for a degree of loyalty to Biden, he or his camp will have some influence over them, but otherwise it's a free for all.
She'd present a very striking contrast to Trump too, and, who knows, the US electorate may suddenly start to want, once again, a more decent politics that she'd surely represent.
What worked for me was eating a lot less for my mid-day meal and at work generally. I lost a stone and a half over the course of a year, slowly but surely. While others are tucking in to a bowl of leftovers or a meal deal, I have 4 or 5 pieces of fruit.
My commute (albeit 2 or 3 days a week) is now by train, and includes gets me over 10,000 steps for the day, and that has helped be lose a bit more.
I'm now below 13 stone for the first time in decades.
Still, it doesn't seem to have held back Vicks Sinex Starmer or Bumble Bee Trapped in a Bottle Reeves.
This year, however, I was against it - because I thought there was actually a chance.
And we might be seeing why.
If you want to ditch Harris, it goes over much better with your Democrat base to pick another black woman.
She can be continuity Obama/Biden without the flaws - which might be enough against Trump.
I remember in 2020 a lot of American pundits suggesting that Michelle would win 400+ seats against Trump, either as Biden’s VP or herself. I’m not sure *that* much but I see the logic.
If Trump knocks her lack of experience, she can easily say “Donald you were a reality TV star before becoming President, whereas I did XYZ in the White House…”
I also think, in 2020, we saw how Barack Obama had the clout to unite the party behind Biden against Bernie. In 2024, he is perhaps uniquely placed to tell his old friend Joe it’s time to stand aside - and to encourage his wife, who might be reluctant to do it, that she needs to ‘Save America’.
Michelle Obama for President also allows you to pick a safe pair of hands as a VP candidate, which might bolster the ticket overall. E.g. Newsom for President might be seen as supplanting Harris in a negative manner. But Obama / Newsom might be more palatable.
To be honest I still think Harris is more likely than the above but you cannot rule it out and I think laying Michelle for President is bad at the odds quoted.
Last night showed Biden may be toast, but also, this is not the Trump of 2016 or 2020. He is more beatable than he seems right now.
Then you have to convince him that a replacement candidate will do better against Trump. The only straightforward (logistically speaking) replacement candidate is Harris, and we can't even convince ourselves that she would do better, so it's a tough sell.
https://x.com/tpostmillennial/status/1806530807026122972?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
https://x.com/tpostmillennial/status/1806530807026122972?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
The key to success is redundancy. The "Swiss Cheese" model of having fail-safes and multiple layers of protection.
Dozens of European nations working together in peaceful co-operation is better than a united Europe who could be led by a Trump - or a Merkel.
When Germany was refusing to support Ukraine earlier in the build up to the war (and they've considerably changed since and deserve great credit for that) other European nations including the UK, Poland and others stepped up to the plate along with the US.
If the US is not dependable, then I'd rather have dozens of European allies that we can co-operate with those who are willing, than have a single point of failure where a Merkel says "no we're not doing that" and there's no redundancy or fail-safe.
Gavin Newsom maybe, or… I wonder whether an all woman ticket is completely off the table. Harris-Whitmer I think could be quite a good ticket.
My kindergarten teacher congratulating me after I finished last
https://x.com/alifarhat79/status/1806535455871046072
Have we done this Techne already?
📊 Labour lead at 22pts
Westminster voting intention
LAB: 41% (-1)
CON: 19% (-)
REF: 17% (-)
LDEM: 12% (-)
GRN: 5% (-)
via @techneUK, 26 - 27 Jun
This is a positive move. It is not acceptable that for too long these people have just been dumped in places like Rochdale, Middlesbrough and Gateshead where housing is dirt cheap. It is good and will reduce the costs of these people being dumped in hotels.
I think Labour will be positive on this. I also think an amnesty is not a bad thing.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/labour-will-force-every-borough-to-take-fair-share-of-migrants-says-rayner/ar-BB1p11HK?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=6cdf3e2a98cd4dc2a31b9a845eceee1d&ei=10
Only the family could have persuaded him to really be the "bridge to the next generation" he actually promised.
On the plus side this will probably be radicalising enough that by 2030 we'll be up for a serious discussion on using Ascension island as our version of Nauru.
Quite a few PBers seem to be doing quite well on this front this year. This is the only year I've seen PBers celebrating how many pounds they've lost.
(Tho I entirely agree the present situation is hugely unfair on a few benighted places)
My sense is that Labour will fail to get any grip on migration or asylum, indeed they will possibly
make it WORSE and that they could implode over this issue in the first year or two
Chuckle. Jill just won’t stop, she’s the one that needs to be given the revolver and whisky bottle, not him. Drunk on power I suspect.
@FrankLuntz
·
5h
My focus group of undecided voters wants Joe Biden to step aside.
They like him and respect him – most voted for him in 2020. But they want him to go.
Tonight was a political earthquake.
https://x.com/FrankLuntz
Clacton Reform 72, Con 19, Lab 9
Barnsley South Reform 70, Lab 30
Boston & Skegness Reform 61, Con 21, Lab 18
Ashfield Reform 64, Lab 29, Con 6
Skipton & Ripon Reform 57,Con 14, Lab 29
Louth & Horncastle 37% (Lab 33, Con 30)
Lab: 485
Con: 39
Ref: 7
LD: 76
Grn: 3
SNP: 18
PC: 3
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13246475/donald-trump-michelle-obama-election-poll.html
has Trump winning 47-44
The last Harris vs Trump poll has Trump winning by 47-42 (same poll has Trump beating Biden 46-44).
If there has been any attempt to persuade Biden to stand down, these kinds of polls would have persuaded him that he is the best person to beat Trump again.
Opportunity for the Lib Dems, perhaps. Or the far right. Likely to be too short a timescale for the Conservatives to recover.
In public she has no choice other than to be supportive, unequivocally.
You see that kind of response after any debate by any candidate when it comes to the "spin room" or immediate rallies etc
What's said in private behind closed doors is another matter.
Did you really think she might come out and say in front of the cameras "well that was shit Joe, you really ballsed that one up now didn't you?"
Difficult to make heads or tails of any of this when you get forecasts like that.
To be honest the clips I've seen remind me of my late grandad, who did not have dementia but who was increasingly slow and forgetful and could lose his place more easily.
Dementia is something different and although I didn't watch the debate I've seen no signs of that in any of the debates, I just see a frail old man who is past it.
Actually I'm going past Ripon tomorrow morning - will call in on the way back to have a look round and see what posters exist.
Edit 2 - the only issue I see is that the Lib Dems didn't stand in 2017 and supported the Green party. Given that I think it's a possible Labour win from a 23,000 Tory majority...
I now foresee the following chain of events as quite likely: Labour lose all control of migration and asylum, the boats get worse, this is accompanied by storms of Wokeness which enrage everyone
Labour do ok things but all these are drowned out by the above. Public anger is incendiary
Labour collapse in the polls and a new populist right party - either the Tories rebranded, some merger with reform, or something else - surges in opposition. The hard right wins and takes over in 2028
All avoidable. But this is where we’re headed. Just as the Joe Biden disaster was avoidable but no one did anything
In fact:
National margin: Biden 2.4% better than Clinton
Wisconsin (tipping point state both times) margin: Biden 1.4% better than Clinton
Given that Goodwin gave a speech on Weds 26th at Unherd urging everyone to vote for Reform, and the previous poll of his, I daresay he might just post a poll with Reform on a ridiculously high figure in the hopes that it boosts their turnout.
The difference is that with age related memory loss you forget things in conversation but eventually remember (usually too late) with it far more noticable if tired. But are very aware of forgetting things and do things like keep lists of things you have to do.
With dementia the memory is destroyed, gone forever. You keep a list of things to remember, forget you had the list and get annoyed with anyone who tries to point out its existence.
To give a computer analogy. Dementia is a failing hard drive with more and more bad sectors. Age related memory loss is the data bus getting narrower and slower but the data hasn't been lost.
What are the smoking?
You can't get more Tory than rural North Yorkshire.
It's simply not a Reform area - way, way too wealthy.
But seriously, yes, you're exactly right. As long as her husband is the candidate she'll advocate for him. Anything else in public would be odd.
My father had dementia for many years before his death. I'm not medically qualified to assess it, obviously, but I don't see the same in Biden.
There's a later clip from the post debate party where he's much more coherent:
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1806525054295085188
But his political opponents - as has Leon - will reach for the word as a shorthand anyway, and there's little or nothing the Democrats can do about that.
(Mike himself was strongly of the opinion that Biden was too old to run for a second term, of course.)
When I was at RMAS we did a night exercise on Salisbury Plain. There was a guy who had a stammer in the platoon and sometimes it was good and sometimes it was bad.
He was appointed platoon commander for the night phase and was in the middle of giving orders to us all when the Queen walked in, on a visit to the range area (no idea why she was doing it so late but there you are). She asked him something and he couldn't reply. He just stood there, silent, trying to get a word out.
After about 30 seconds (an eternity) someone else in the platoon said "what he is trying to say is..." and at that the Queen turned and gave him (the interrupting guy) a huge bollocking, telling us all to wait and that the words would come. Which they did shortly afterwards, which she listened to intently before thanking him and heading off.
I will be taking questions about the socio-political implications of this story during my forthcoming podcast.
Trump was already clear favourite for the polling and to turn it around the Democrats were relying on a candidate whose mental facilities were in visible and rapid decline. The danger to the Democrats was that Biden was somehow able to soldier on for two or three more months and then inevitably put in a performance like last night's at a point when it was far too late to replace him.
The early debate has worked out in the Democrats' favour, and Trump will in a week's time be regretting having agreed to it. That is, the Democrats will now be forced to press the reset button with over four months to go still and put in place a new fresh candidate who has every opportunity of beating Trump in November.
I can see why people want to use this drug to lose weight. It works. But I also recall the old saying "if you only drink water and eat lettuce you won't live forever, but it will feel like it". For a lot of people eating is fun. Take that away and I suspect a lot of people will wonder if its worth it.
Which pretty much sums up the whole SLD strategy with a bit of added amnesia about all the legislation they supported in Holyrood.
https://x.com/gregmoodie/status/1806603976592224463
He in particular exhibits all the behaviours we see in Biden. The vacant staring. The incoherent speech. The wandering off. Some of it is identical
However I’ve no wish to upset the mods and if @TSE and @rcs would prefer us to use different words that’s fine and I will obey. The point is made, anyway
Hypotheticals - particularly when they're only a couple of percentage points different - don't really shown anything very useful.
At least Harris has run for office before. No one has any idea how Michelle Obama might perform as an actual candidate.
"The risk for Democrats now is two-fold. The first is that Biden simply refuses to budge. Indeed, that is still the likeliest outcome...If Biden believes he simply had a bad night, he could eat up the precious time Democrats have to elect a replacement. The worst thing he could do is cling on for another few weeks then step down. He would need to make the announcement in the next few days."
"The second risk is that Biden does decide to step aside in good time and the Democratic party descends into civil war."
FT: https://www.ft.com/content/b28034a1-69dd-4b04-ae55-89907845d550?shareType=nongift
You can see how characters like this were elevated to deity status in times when storytelling was how history was made. You can imagine it getting embellished and growing over the years. The aspect about her just turning up unannounced on Salisbury Plain in the middle of the night just adds to it.
Also, I love that we still all know who you mean by 'the Queen'. I wonder for how long she will remain THE Queen - and all other queens have to be given titles (e.g. names or of...) to differentiate them from THE queen.
I feel a bit sorry for "what he is trying to say is..." guy. Presumably his intentions were nothing but helpful, towards both colleague and queen. But that takes nothing away from the story.
Clacton and Boston were 1 and 2 for 2015 UKIP support
Ashfield has a fractured landscape and the incumbent is reform.
Barnsley South had a very strong Brexit performance in it's predecessor seat last time round - and it's mainly villages surrounding Barnsley, not Barnsley itself where I think Reform/Brexit would be stronger than Labour. I've also had a small bet on them at 8-1 there. Baxter must have some logic to his thinking that it's a good shout too.
Louth is a bit more tenuous but Skipton and Ripon was 300th for UKIP vote in 2015, and Ripon seems far too - how can I put this - "middle class" for Reform when I go there to my mind.
In January I was evacuated along with the rest of the crew from the Ocean Great White semi-sub, West of Shetlands. 30m seas and 100 knot winds - though by the time we were evacuated it was down to a mere 17m seas and 70 knots. The waves ripped all the equipment off the bottom if the rig and dropped 1000 tons of riser onto the seafloor and right across the main gas export line.
Georgia (16 ECV) Biden 4.18% better than Clinton and had it swung by the national margin the Trump would have won Georgia
Michigan (16 ECV) Biden 3.35% better than Clinton
Biden campaigned more than Clinton in the swing states and got a bigger swing as a result in most of the swing states, winning some of them purely due to that fact.
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/general-election-2024-seats-to-watch/