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Why we will be discussing AV and electoral reform a lot more – politicalbetting.com

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  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,705
    Carnyx said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    Oh dear, Johnny Mercer is fucked.

    Fred Thomas’ Certificate of Valediction - signed by the Commanding Officer, Special Forces Support Group



    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1804162095123980459

    Wasn't Mercer complaining about claims he was a combatant? He could have had a glorious seven years behind a desk.
    No, senior special forces bods have vouched for Thomas’ service and it wasn’t behind a desk.
    You have to wonder why Mercer is repeating this claim then. Pretty low.
    Firstly he is desperate and secondly he knows that Thomas cannot come out and say, “actually I did this, this and this” etc which is why it’s pretty despicable of Mercer to call him a Walter Mitty as he knows what the rules are.
    Mercer will potentially be in a spot of bother should he win narrowly in July. Many here will recall Phil Woolas being unseated by an election petition in 2010, due to making false statements about a candidate's character and conduct contrary to section 106 of the Representation of the People Act, and the result being close enough conceivably to have been decisive.

    Quite apart from any defamation issues, he's potentially given himself quite a big problem.
    Has Mercer explained how he is in a position to know whether what Thomas says about his service is true or not?
    Yup. He says "I was a minister in the department" (MOD presumably). Though he must have gone looking, to know career details of an obscure junior officer. Which I think is atrocious, using civil service resources to dig political dirt.
    Well, I was wondering about that as a possibility, but I'm flabbergasted if Mercer has actually admitted he obtained the information through his ministerial office.

    Surely Mercer will be in a lot more than a "spot of bother"? It strikes me as much worse than the shenanigans over Tories having a flutter on the date of the election.

    Odd wording, [edit] about Mr M being a minister, speaking out loud at the hustings presumably. But that's what it seems to say. (The other interpretation is that Mr Thomas was never a minister in the department, but that doesn't really make sense in the context.)

    https://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2024-06-21/johnny-mercer-accuses-labour-opponent-of-lying-about-military-service
    Perhaps Mercer just thinks that being a government minister is something particularly heroic, requiring more bravery than leading troops in combat.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,602
    edited June 21
    Farage comments on Ukraine are made in BBC interview with Nick Robinson.

    Full interview on BBC1 at 7pm.

    As it's a BBC interview, I think good chance it leads BBC1 10pm news.

    Could be a big moment.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,212

    I did say we'd reached peak Reform.

    I am not inclined to argue with you...

    I hope their fall is precipitous.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,172

    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    NEW: Nigel Farage says the West "provoked" Vladimir Putin into invading Ukraine.

    Very odd thing to say in an election campaign
    So far we know he has said the word 'provoked' - that's how confident the quoter is that his quote is a zinger.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,848
    edited June 21
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    Oh dear, Johnny Mercer is fucked.

    Fred Thomas’ Certificate of Valediction - signed by the Commanding Officer, Special Forces Support Group



    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1804162095123980459

    Wasn't Mercer complaining about claims he was a combatant? He could have had a glorious seven years behind a desk.
    No, senior special forces bods have vouched for Thomas’ service and it wasn’t behind a desk.
    You have to wonder why Mercer is repeating this claim then. Pretty low.
    Firstly he is desperate and secondly he knows that Thomas cannot come out and say, “actually I did this, this and this” etc which is why it’s pretty despicable of Mercer to call him a Walter Mitty as he knows what the rules are.
    Mercer will potentially be in a spot of bother should he win narrowly in July. Many here will recall Phil Woolas being unseated by an election petition in 2010, due to making false statements about a candidate's character and conduct contrary to section 106 of the Representation of the People Act, and the result being close enough conceivably to have been decisive.

    Quite apart from any defamation issues, he's potentially given himself quite a big problem.
    Has Mercer explained how he is in a position to know whether what Thomas says about his service is true or not?
    Yup. He says "I was a minister in the department" (MOD presumably). Though he must have gone looking, to know career details of an obscure junior officer. Which I think is atrocious, using civil service resources to dig political dirt.
    Well, I was wondering about that as a possibility, but I'm flabbergasted if Mercer has actually admitted he obtained the information through his ministerial office.

    Surely Mercer will be in a lot more than a "spot of bother"? It strikes me as much worse than the shenanigans over Tories having a flutter on the date of the election.

    That’s….. interesting. A public servant can have access to all sorts of private information, and indeed often needs to in order to do their job. But the various legal powers plus GDPR are almost always couched in “for a specific purpose” provisions. You need to be careful if you use such data for anything else.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    Evening Standard - Post Office Inquiry: former union boss branded 'aggressive and belligerent' during tense exchange

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hu9_BeiKs0

    This clown is a perfect poster child of a goddamn less-than-zero labor-faker.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    edited June 21
    Chris said:

    Carnyx said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    Oh dear, Johnny Mercer is fucked.

    Fred Thomas’ Certificate of Valediction - signed by the Commanding Officer, Special Forces Support Group



    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1804162095123980459

    Wasn't Mercer complaining about claims he was a combatant? He could have had a glorious seven years behind a desk.
    No, senior special forces bods have vouched for Thomas’ service and it wasn’t behind a desk.
    You have to wonder why Mercer is repeating this claim then. Pretty low.
    Firstly he is desperate and secondly he knows that Thomas cannot come out and say, “actually I did this, this and this” etc which is why it’s pretty despicable of Mercer to call him a Walter Mitty as he knows what the rules are.
    Mercer will potentially be in a spot of bother should he win narrowly in July. Many here will recall Phil Woolas being unseated by an election petition in 2010, due to making false statements about a candidate's character and conduct contrary to section 106 of the Representation of the People Act, and the result being close enough conceivably to have been decisive.

    Quite apart from any defamation issues, he's potentially given himself quite a big problem.
    Has Mercer explained how he is in a position to know whether what Thomas says about his service is true or not?
    Yup. He says "I was a minister in the department" (MOD presumably). Though he must have gone looking, to know career details of an obscure junior officer. Which I think is atrocious, using civil service resources to dig political dirt.
    Well, I was wondering about that as a possibility, but I'm flabbergasted if Mercer has actually admitted he obtained the information through his ministerial office.

    Surely Mercer will be in a lot more than a "spot of bother"? It strikes me as much worse than the shenanigans over Tories having a flutter on the date of the election.

    Odd wording, [edit] about Mr M being a minister, speaking out loud at the hustings presumably. But that's what it seems to say. (The other interpretation is that Mr Thomas was never a minister in the department, but that doesn't really make sense in the context.)

    https://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2024-06-21/johnny-mercer-accuses-labour-opponent-of-lying-about-military-service
    Perhaps Mercer just thinks that being a government minister is something particularly heroic, requiring more bravery than leading troops in combat.
    Certainly more risk of blue on blue action. (That is an ironic joke. Not intended to be serious.)
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,407
    Chris said:

    Carnyx said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    Oh dear, Johnny Mercer is fucked.

    Fred Thomas’ Certificate of Valediction - signed by the Commanding Officer, Special Forces Support Group



    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1804162095123980459

    Wasn't Mercer complaining about claims he was a combatant? He could have had a glorious seven years behind a desk.
    No, senior special forces bods have vouched for Thomas’ service and it wasn’t behind a desk.
    You have to wonder why Mercer is repeating this claim then. Pretty low.
    Firstly he is desperate and secondly he knows that Thomas cannot come out and say, “actually I did this, this and this” etc which is why it’s pretty despicable of Mercer to call him a Walter Mitty as he knows what the rules are.
    Mercer will potentially be in a spot of bother should he win narrowly in July. Many here will recall Phil Woolas being unseated by an election petition in 2010, due to making false statements about a candidate's character and conduct contrary to section 106 of the Representation of the People Act, and the result being close enough conceivably to have been decisive.

    Quite apart from any defamation issues, he's potentially given himself quite a big problem.
    Has Mercer explained how he is in a position to know whether what Thomas says about his service is true or not?
    Yup. He says "I was a minister in the department" (MOD presumably). Though he must have gone looking, to know career details of an obscure junior officer. Which I think is atrocious, using civil service resources to dig political dirt.
    Well, I was wondering about that as a possibility, but I'm flabbergasted if Mercer has actually admitted he obtained the information through his ministerial office.

    Surely Mercer will be in a lot more than a "spot of bother"? It strikes me as much worse than the shenanigans over Tories having a flutter on the date of the election.

    Odd wording, [edit] about Mr M being a minister, speaking out loud at the hustings presumably. But that's what it seems to say. (The other interpretation is that Mr Thomas was never a minister in the department, but that doesn't really make sense in the context.)

    https://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2024-06-21/johnny-mercer-accuses-labour-opponent-of-lying-about-military-service
    Perhaps Mercer just thinks that being a government minister is something particularly heroic, requiring more bravery than leading troops in combat.
    The silly thing is that Mercer has been at the sharp end and should know better than to cast aspersions on someone who cannot respond by saying what he actually did, where and when he was on operations et. It’s a really dickish move but he’s always come across as someone very much high on his own supply.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,172

    pigeon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    NEW: Nigel Farage says the West "provoked" Vladimir Putin into invading Ukraine.

    What a fucking appeaser.

    Any vote for Farage/Reform is a vote for Putin.
    Nigel Farage has reiterated that he blames the West and NATO for the Russian invasion of Ukraine - as he confirmed that he previously said he "admired" Vladimir Putin as a statesman.

    Speaking to the BBC, the Reform UK leader was asked about his previous comments on Russia and Ukraine.

    Asked about the Russia invading Ukraine in 2022, Mr Farage told Nick Robinson that he has been saying since Berlin Wall fell there would be a war in Ukraine due to the "ever-eastward expansion of NATO and the European Union".

    He said this was giving this Putin a reason to say to the Russian people "'They're coming for us again,' and to go to war".

    The Reform leader confirmed his belief the West "provoked" the conflict - but did say it was Putin's "fault".

    On Putin himself, previous comments Mr Farage had made were put to him.

    He was asked about comments he made previously stating that Putin was the statesman he most admired.

    Mr Farage said he disliked the Russian leader - but "I admired him as a political operator because he's managed to take control of running Russia".

    "This is the nonsense, you know, you can pick any figure, current or historical, and say, you know, did they have good aspects?" he added.

    "And if you said, well, they were very talented in one area, then suddenly you're the biggest supporter."


    https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-2024-sunak-starmer-conservatives-labour-reform-davey-lib-dem-12593360?postid=7854097#liveblog-body
    Strong Diane Abbott "Mao did more good than harm" vibes
    Except not.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,212

    Nunu5 said:

    https://x.com/ashcowburn/status/1804182490711531878

    I am convinced that REFORM are in second place and we are in for a big suprise on July 5th!

    Only if Labour are in third....
    Bong! And the exit poll predicts the Tories will be opposition to Nigel Farages Reform Party with Keir Starmers Labour reduced to their Liverpool redout just behind Sir Edward Daveys Liberal Democrats and George Galloways Workers Party
    ....with Corbyn returned.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,390
    Farage is a bellend? Who would have thought it. In other news, Pope, Catholic.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121
    If things do properly escalate between Russia and the West in the coming few years, I can see Nigel becoming so hated he gets run out of the country - Perhaps he'll seek asylum in Moscow?
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,872

    And now I've just ruined my post by going and ordering Ham and Pineapple Pizza from Domino's.

    I'd rather eat dirt from a feral street in Mogadishu, to be honest.

    But, I hope you enjoy it.
    It was bloody lovely. Barbecue sauce instead of tomato.....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,190
    Brook and Livingstone are trying their best to make a match of this.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,602
    Farage on Ukraine also already leading Guardian and Telegraph websites.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,848
    Carnyx said:

    Chris said:

    Carnyx said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    Oh dear, Johnny Mercer is fucked.

    Fred Thomas’ Certificate of Valediction - signed by the Commanding Officer, Special Forces Support Group



    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1804162095123980459

    Wasn't Mercer complaining about claims he was a combatant? He could have had a glorious seven years behind a desk.
    No, senior special forces bods have vouched for Thomas’ service and it wasn’t behind a desk.
    You have to wonder why Mercer is repeating this claim then. Pretty low.
    Firstly he is desperate and secondly he knows that Thomas cannot come out and say, “actually I did this, this and this” etc which is why it’s pretty despicable of Mercer to call him a Walter Mitty as he knows what the rules are.
    Mercer will potentially be in a spot of bother should he win narrowly in July. Many here will recall Phil Woolas being unseated by an election petition in 2010, due to making false statements about a candidate's character and conduct contrary to section 106 of the Representation of the People Act, and the result being close enough conceivably to have been decisive.

    Quite apart from any defamation issues, he's potentially given himself quite a big problem.
    Has Mercer explained how he is in a position to know whether what Thomas says about his service is true or not?
    Yup. He says "I was a minister in the department" (MOD presumably). Though he must have gone looking, to know career details of an obscure junior officer. Which I think is atrocious, using civil service resources to dig political dirt.
    Well, I was wondering about that as a possibility, but I'm flabbergasted if Mercer has actually admitted he obtained the information through his ministerial office.

    Surely Mercer will be in a lot more than a "spot of bother"? It strikes me as much worse than the shenanigans over Tories having a flutter on the date of the election.

    Odd wording, [edit] about Mr M being a minister, speaking out loud at the hustings presumably. But that's what it seems to say. (The other interpretation is that Mr Thomas was never a minister in the department, but that doesn't really make sense in the context.)

    https://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2024-06-21/johnny-mercer-accuses-labour-opponent-of-lying-about-military-service
    Perhaps Mercer just thinks that being a government minister is something particularly heroic, requiring more bravery than leading troops in combat.
    Certainly more risk of blue on blue action. (That is an ironic joke. Not intended to be serious.)
    Blue on Blue Action? I think I have that DVD somewhere. It’s about two female police officers isn’t it?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,783

    If labour do fall into the 30s on polling day, there are going to be a lot of seats won on a much lower share of the vote than 2019 where it was mostly 40s and up winning seats. That means some unlikely gains but also probably some holds on 'buttons' for the Tories

    Well, if that's what keeps your hopes up.

    Let's knock some numbers around - let's assume Stodge-on-the-Wold has 75,000 electors so last time 50,000 voted and split 32,000 Conservative, 12,000 Labour and 6,000 everyone else. That's 64% Conservative, 24% Labour and 12% the rest leaving Labour needing a 20% swing to win the seat.

    Let's assume 50,000 vote this time as well - it won't be the same 50,000 naturally but it makes the maths easier. Let's be kind and assume the Conservatives lose half their vote (based on the polls) so that's 16,000. Where do those 16,000 voters go? If Reform are getting a quarter of the 2019 Conservative vote, let's put 8,000 in the others column and let's also assume 4,000 are going to Labour with 4,000 going to the LDs, Greens and others including that nice Independent chap who runs the bookshop in the High Street.

    Conservative 16,000, Labour 16,000, Rest 18,000. We can split the Rest between Reform (10,000) and the Others (8,000) but Labour are polling 5 points higher than last time (minimum) so between that and tactical voting we can move another 3,500 out of the others column so the actual result:

    Labour 19,500 (39%)
    Conservative 16,000 (32%)
    Reform 10,000 (20%)
    Others 4,500 (9%)

    Swing of 23.5%.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,194

    Farage is a bellend? Who would have thought it. In other news, Pope, Catholic.

    The Pope’s views on the war are worse.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,193
    Sorely tempted to change the c word policy to allow it to be used when describing Nigel Farage.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,602
    Heathener said:

    ALSO, didn’t the Conservatives do away with PR for the London mayorality?

    They dumped the Supplementary Vote system and moved it to FPTP.

    Was Tim Stanley complaining then?

    For those of us who have long supported PR (sometimes in different ways), fairweather supporters of PR, or rather poor weather critics of FPTP, are a constant nuisance.

    No electoral system is perfect, and each has positives and negatives, and of course many electoral changes are proposed by people who think they will benefit, but they could be less blatant.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,872
    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    NEW: Nigel Farage says the West "provoked" Vladimir Putin into invading Ukraine.

    Fuck off Nigel.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    edited June 21
    biggles said:

    Carnyx said:

    Chris said:

    Carnyx said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    Oh dear, Johnny Mercer is fucked.

    Fred Thomas’ Certificate of Valediction - signed by the Commanding Officer, Special Forces Support Group



    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1804162095123980459

    Wasn't Mercer complaining about claims he was a combatant? He could have had a glorious seven years behind a desk.
    No, senior special forces bods have vouched for Thomas’ service and it wasn’t behind a desk.
    You have to wonder why Mercer is repeating this claim then. Pretty low.
    Firstly he is desperate and secondly he knows that Thomas cannot come out and say, “actually I did this, this and this” etc which is why it’s pretty despicable of Mercer to call him a Walter Mitty as he knows what the rules are.
    Mercer will potentially be in a spot of bother should he win narrowly in July. Many here will recall Phil Woolas being unseated by an election petition in 2010, due to making false statements about a candidate's character and conduct contrary to section 106 of the Representation of the People Act, and the result being close enough conceivably to have been decisive.

    Quite apart from any defamation issues, he's potentially given himself quite a big problem.
    Has Mercer explained how he is in a position to know whether what Thomas says about his service is true or not?
    Yup. He says "I was a minister in the department" (MOD presumably). Though he must have gone looking, to know career details of an obscure junior officer. Which I think is atrocious, using civil service resources to dig political dirt.
    Well, I was wondering about that as a possibility, but I'm flabbergasted if Mercer has actually admitted he obtained the information through his ministerial office.

    Surely Mercer will be in a lot more than a "spot of bother"? It strikes me as much worse than the shenanigans over Tories having a flutter on the date of the election.

    Odd wording, [edit] about Mr M being a minister, speaking out loud at the hustings presumably. But that's what it seems to say. (The other interpretation is that Mr Thomas was never a minister in the department, but that doesn't really make sense in the context.)

    https://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2024-06-21/johnny-mercer-accuses-labour-opponent-of-lying-about-military-service
    Perhaps Mercer just thinks that being a government minister is something particularly heroic, requiring more bravery than leading troops in combat.
    Certainly more risk of blue on blue action. (That is an ironic joke. Not intended to be serious.)
    Blue on Blue Action? I think I have that DVD somewhere. It’s about two female police officers isn’t it?
    Oh, pleeeeease. Awful joke.
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    Oh dear, Johnny Mercer is fucked.

    Fred Thomas’ Certificate of Valediction - signed by the Commanding Officer, Special Forces Support Group



    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1804162095123980459

    Wasn't Mercer complaining about claims he was a combatant? He could have had a glorious seven years behind a desk.
    No, senior special forces bods have vouched for Thomas’ service and it wasn’t behind a desk.
    You have to wonder why Mercer is repeating this claim then. Pretty low.
    Firstly he is desperate and secondly he knows that Thomas cannot come out and say, “actually I did this, this and this” etc which is why it’s pretty despicable of Mercer to call him a Walter Mitty as he knows what the rules are.
    Mercer will potentially be in a spot of bother should he win narrowly in July. Many here will recall Phil Woolas being unseated by an election petition in 2010, due to making false statements about a candidate's character and conduct contrary to section 106 of the Representation of the People Act, and the result being close enough conceivably to have been decisive.

    Quite apart from any defamation issues, he's potentially given himself quite a big problem.
    Has Mercer explained how he is in a position to know whether what Thomas says about his service is true or not?
    Yup. He says "I was a minister in the department" (MOD presumably). Though he must have gone looking, to know career details of an obscure junior officer. Which I think is atrocious, using civil service resources to dig political dirt.
    Well, I was wondering about that as a possibility, but I'm flabbergasted if Mercer has actually admitted he obtained the information through his ministerial office.

    Surely Mercer will be in a lot more than a "spot of bother"? It strikes me as much worse than the shenanigans over Tories having a flutter on the date of the election.

    It's a good point. Indeed, it's probably best for Mercer if he was, in fact, bullshitting about seeing the file.

    It's a really serious breach of data protection to go looking files of sensitive personal data for information of political interest to Mercer. The MOD would be data controller and would need to use the information exclusively for the purpose for which it was held - which very plainly isn't that.

    Could be serious questions for MOD officials too if, as I say, Mercer isn't simply bullshitting (which is pretty possible).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,602
    I am confused by this, since how could anyone not see this coming?

    Bestselling writer Naomi Klein has called Baillie Gifford “thin-skinned” for putting literary festivals in jeopardy, as she defended her decision to support Fossil Free Books’ campaign against the investment manager.

    ...Klein said she believed people should pull their money from Baillie Gifford and that the investment manager couldn’t expect to gain the clout from association with the arts, without also engaging with the ideas of artists and writers...Klein was one of the 800+ signatories of the recent contentious letter spearheaded by Fossil Free Books which called on Baillie Gifford, a prominent sponsor of arts festivals including Hay and the Edinburgh Fringe, to pull its investments from the fossil fuel industry as well as from companies “that profit from Israeli apartheid, occupation and genocide”.

    The resulting pressure saw Hay Festival sever its ties to Baillie Gifford, and the investment manager has since cancelled all its remaining sponsorships of literary festivals.


    https://www.cityam.com/naomi-klein-thin-skinned-baillie-gifford-has-put-arts-festivals-in-jeopardy/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,194

    Sorely tempted to change the c word policy to allow it to be used when describing Nigel Farage.

    You protest too much given Cameron's record of appeasement.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,407

    Sorely tempted to change the c word policy to allow it to be used when describing Nigel Farage.

    Quisling is spelled with a “Q” not a “C”.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,693
    Big unforced error from Farage there.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,019
    boulay said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    Oh dear, Johnny Mercer is fucked.

    Fred Thomas’ Certificate of Valediction - signed by the Commanding Officer, Special Forces Support Group



    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1804162095123980459

    Wasn't Mercer complaining about claims he was a combatant? He could have had a glorious seven years behind a desk.
    No, senior special forces bods have vouched for Thomas’ service and it wasn’t behind a desk.
    You have to wonder why Mercer is repeating this claim then. Pretty low.
    Firstly he is desperate and secondly he knows that Thomas cannot come out and say, “actually I did this, this and this” etc which is why it’s pretty despicable of Mercer to call him a Walter Mitty as he knows what the rules are.
    Mercer will potentially be in a spot of bother should he win narrowly in July. Many here will recall Phil Woolas being unseated by an election petition in 2010, due to making false statements about a candidate's character and conduct contrary to section 106 of the Representation of the People Act, and the result being close enough conceivably to have been decisive.

    Quite apart from any defamation issues, he's potentially given himself quite a big problem.
    Has Mercer explained how he is in a position to know whether what Thomas says about his service is true or not?
    Yup. He says "I was a minister in the department" (MOD presumably). Though he must have gone looking, to know career details of an obscure junior officer. Which I think is atrocious, using civil service resources to dig political dirt.
    Well, I was wondering about that as a possibility, but I'm flabbergasted if Mercer has actually admitted he obtained the information through his ministerial office.

    Surely Mercer will be in a lot more than a "spot of bother"? It strikes me as much worse than the shenanigans over Tories having a flutter on the date of the election.

    I’m more surprised that Mercer is saying that people in the MOD can look at a database of which soldiers are doing what and who is in special forces. There is clearly no way at all that could be a security risk. No way. No chance of a spy for a foreign country providing lists and numbers and operations of British personnel.
    More prosaically, it could be the goat-shagger attack. Make an accusation, not because you think it's true, but because your opponent can't rebut it.

    Unfortunately, that's how far down the road to Hell some politicians have got.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,705
    biggles said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    Oh dear, Johnny Mercer is fucked.

    Fred Thomas’ Certificate of Valediction - signed by the Commanding Officer, Special Forces Support Group



    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1804162095123980459

    Wasn't Mercer complaining about claims he was a combatant? He could have had a glorious seven years behind a desk.
    No, senior special forces bods have vouched for Thomas’ service and it wasn’t behind a desk.
    You have to wonder why Mercer is repeating this claim then. Pretty low.
    Firstly he is desperate and secondly he knows that Thomas cannot come out and say, “actually I did this, this and this” etc which is why it’s pretty despicable of Mercer to call him a Walter Mitty as he knows what the rules are.
    Mercer will potentially be in a spot of bother should he win narrowly in July. Many here will recall Phil Woolas being unseated by an election petition in 2010, due to making false statements about a candidate's character and conduct contrary to section 106 of the Representation of the People Act, and the result being close enough conceivably to have been decisive.

    Quite apart from any defamation issues, he's potentially given himself quite a big problem.
    Has Mercer explained how he is in a position to know whether what Thomas says about his service is true or not?
    Yup. He says "I was a minister in the department" (MOD presumably). Though he must have gone looking, to know career details of an obscure junior officer. Which I think is atrocious, using civil service resources to dig political dirt.
    Well, I was wondering about that as a possibility, but I'm flabbergasted if Mercer has actually admitted he obtained the information through his ministerial office.

    Surely Mercer will be in a lot more than a "spot of bother"? It strikes me as much worse than the shenanigans over Tories having a flutter on the date of the election.

    That’s….. interesting. A public servant can have access to all sorts of private information, and indeed often needs to in order to do their job. But the various legal powers plus GDPR are almost always couched in “for a specific purpose” provisions. You need to be careful if you use such data for anything else.
    If he'd done what he seems to be implying, I'm sure it would be a major scandal.

    Perhaps more likely it's just bravado. But implying he'd accessed personal data and misused it to attack a political opponent would be amazingly stupid.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,602

    Big unforced error from Farage there.

    People are't really listening to what Reform or the Tories or Labour are saying.

    They know they are furious at the Tories, and they are voting accordingly by selecting Labour or Reform. And when someone has said as many things that upset people as Farage has over the years, offending some people will not change the direction of travel.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,019
    MikeL said:

    Farage comments on Ukraine are made in BBC interview with Nick Robinson.

    Full interview on BBC1 at 7pm.

    As it's a BBC interview, I think good chance it leads BBC1 10pm news.

    Could be a big moment.

    Probably ought to be, but the fan club are probably immune. Fan clubs usually are.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    stodge said:

    If labour do fall into the 30s on polling day, there are going to be a lot of seats won on a much lower share of the vote than 2019 where it was mostly 40s and up winning seats. That means some unlikely gains but also probably some holds on 'buttons' for the Tories

    Well, if that's what keeps your hopes up.

    Let's knock some numbers around - let's assume Stodge-on-the-Wold has 75,000 electors so last time 50,000 voted and split 32,000 Conservative, 12,000 Labour and 6,000 everyone else. That's 64% Conservative, 24% Labour and 12% the rest leaving Labour needing a 20% swing to win the seat.

    Let's assume 50,000 vote this time as well - it won't be the same 50,000 naturally but it makes the maths easier. Let's be kind and assume the Conservatives lose half their vote (based on the polls) so that's 16,000. Where do those 16,000 voters go? If Reform are getting a quarter of the 2019 Conservative vote, let's put 8,000 in the others column and let's also assume 4,000 are going to Labour with 4,000 going to the LDs, Greens and others including that nice Independent chap who runs the bookshop in the High Street.

    Conservative 16,000, Labour 16,000, Rest 18,000. We can split the Rest between Reform (10,000) and the Others (8,000) but Labour are polling 5 points higher than last time (minimum) so between that and tactical voting we can move another 3,500 out of the others column so the actual result:

    Labour 19,500 (39%)
    Conservative 16,000 (32%)
    Reform 10,000 (20%)
    Others 4,500 (9%)

    Swing of 23.5%.
    The point is if Labour are getting 39% in Stodge on the wold they aren't getting 37% nationally unless their vote in safe seats is collapsing.
    And it's absolutely nothing to do with 'hopes' its to do with maths, if Labour win a huge majority on 37% of the vote then by necessity they'll be winning some with a very low % comparatively. It's merely a product of votes available across seats won (or defended)
    Obviously none of this applies if Labour get a much more robust total vote.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,172
    GIN1138 said:

    If things do properly escalate between Russia and the West in the coming few years, I can see Nigel becoming so hated he gets run out of the country - Perhaps he'll seek asylum in Moscow?

    And then you wake up with sticky sheets?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    edited June 21

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    Oh dear, Johnny Mercer is fucked.

    Fred Thomas’ Certificate of Valediction - signed by the Commanding Officer, Special Forces Support Group



    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1804162095123980459

    Wasn't Mercer complaining about claims he was a combatant? He could have had a glorious seven years behind a desk.
    No, senior special forces bods have vouched for Thomas’ service and it wasn’t behind a desk.
    You have to wonder why Mercer is repeating this claim then. Pretty low.
    Firstly he is desperate and secondly he knows that Thomas cannot come out and say, “actually I did this, this and this” etc which is why it’s pretty despicable of Mercer to call him a Walter Mitty as he knows what the rules are.
    Mercer will potentially be in a spot of bother should he win narrowly in July. Many here will recall Phil Woolas being unseated by an election petition in 2010, due to making false statements about a candidate's character and conduct contrary to section 106 of the Representation of the People Act, and the result being close enough conceivably to have been decisive.

    Quite apart from any defamation issues, he's potentially given himself quite a big problem.
    Has Mercer explained how he is in a position to know whether what Thomas says about his service is true or not?
    Yup. He says "I was a minister in the department" (MOD presumably). Though he must have gone looking, to know career details of an obscure junior officer. Which I think is atrocious, using civil service resources to dig political dirt.
    Well, I was wondering about that as a possibility, but I'm flabbergasted if Mercer has actually admitted he obtained the information through his ministerial office.

    Surely Mercer will be in a lot more than a "spot of bother"? It strikes me as much worse than the shenanigans over Tories having a flutter on the date of the election.

    It's a good point. Indeed, it's probably best for Mercer if he was, in fact, bullshitting about seeing the file.

    It's a really serious breach of data protection to go looking files of sensitive personal data for information of political interest to Mercer. The MOD would be data controller and would need to use the information exclusively for the purpose for which it was held - which very plainly isn't that.

    Could be serious questions for MOD officials too if, as I say, Mercer isn't simply bullshitting (which is pretty possible).
    Could be knowledge which he had retained in his memory, let's say, rather than actual file-riffling. But that still falls down on the revelation of official knowledge, GDPR etc. Because he's the, or a, very senior responsible person at MoD.

    Edit: and still is, till July 4, isn't he? So "someone else told me" doesn't work, either.

  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,848
    Chris said:

    biggles said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    Oh dear, Johnny Mercer is fucked.

    Fred Thomas’ Certificate of Valediction - signed by the Commanding Officer, Special Forces Support Group



    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1804162095123980459

    Wasn't Mercer complaining about claims he was a combatant? He could have had a glorious seven years behind a desk.
    No, senior special forces bods have vouched for Thomas’ service and it wasn’t behind a desk.
    You have to wonder why Mercer is repeating this claim then. Pretty low.
    Firstly he is desperate and secondly he knows that Thomas cannot come out and say, “actually I did this, this and this” etc which is why it’s pretty despicable of Mercer to call him a Walter Mitty as he knows what the rules are.
    Mercer will potentially be in a spot of bother should he win narrowly in July. Many here will recall Phil Woolas being unseated by an election petition in 2010, due to making false statements about a candidate's character and conduct contrary to section 106 of the Representation of the People Act, and the result being close enough conceivably to have been decisive.

    Quite apart from any defamation issues, he's potentially given himself quite a big problem.
    Has Mercer explained how he is in a position to know whether what Thomas says about his service is true or not?
    Yup. He says "I was a minister in the department" (MOD presumably). Though he must have gone looking, to know career details of an obscure junior officer. Which I think is atrocious, using civil service resources to dig political dirt.
    Well, I was wondering about that as a possibility, but I'm flabbergasted if Mercer has actually admitted he obtained the information through his ministerial office.

    Surely Mercer will be in a lot more than a "spot of bother"? It strikes me as much worse than the shenanigans over Tories having a flutter on the date of the election.

    That’s….. interesting. A public servant can have access to all sorts of private information, and indeed often needs to in order to do their job. But the various legal powers plus GDPR are almost always couched in “for a specific purpose” provisions. You need to be careful if you use such data for anything else.
    If he'd done what he seems to be implying, I'm sure it would be a major scandal.

    Perhaps more likely it's just bravado. But implying he'd accessed personal data and misused it to attack a political opponent would be amazingly stupid.
    Thinking charitably, he could have asked a few people who know the bloke.
  • kle4 said:

    I am confused by this, since how could anyone not see this coming?

    Bestselling writer Naomi Klein has called Baillie Gifford “thin-skinned” for putting literary festivals in jeopardy, as she defended her decision to support Fossil Free Books’ campaign against the investment manager.

    ...Klein said she believed people should pull their money from Baillie Gifford and that the investment manager couldn’t expect to gain the clout from association with the arts, without also engaging with the ideas of artists and writers...Klein was one of the 800+ signatories of the recent contentious letter spearheaded by Fossil Free Books which called on Baillie Gifford, a prominent sponsor of arts festivals including Hay and the Edinburgh Fringe, to pull its investments from the fossil fuel industry as well as from companies “that profit from Israeli apartheid, occupation and genocide”.

    The resulting pressure saw Hay Festival sever its ties to Baillie Gifford, and the investment manager has since cancelled all its remaining sponsorships of literary festivals.


    https://www.cityam.com/naomi-klein-thin-skinned-baillie-gifford-has-put-arts-festivals-in-jeopardy/

    "Either you totally change your whole business model to one that fits in with my world view but shafts your bottom line, or stop sponsoring book festivals!"

    "Hmmm. Let's think about that. What was the second option again?"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,004
    I hope Rishi has written his thankyou letter to the Panorama editor?
  • Everyone saying it's impossible for FPTP to be changed, how did other countries manage it?

    From what I can see there's a mixed record for it being changed. India and US* haven't, Australia and Ireland have, for example. So it's clearly doable.

    *I don't consider US a good example of how to/how not to change anything cause of their fetishisation of their constitution

    Ireland have used STV since the beginning. When you have a war of independence it tends to encourage a bit of utopian thinking when writing a new constitution. It's a bit harder to make the change to an established system.
    STV in Ireland was imposed by the BRITISH administration, as means of attempting to blunt the domination of most Irish constituencies by Sinn Fein under FPTP.

    However, the Irish in the Free State then the Republic have retained STV ever since; up North the Unionists ditched it ASAP for FPTP, in order to lock in their dominance, along with gerrymandering & other sharp practice(s).
    I don't think that's right? The last pre-independence general election in Ireland, in 1918, was on FPTP.

    But the UK had already been using STV for parliamentary elections, in some university seats (one of which was Dublin).
    The Parliament of Southern Ireland elections were STV in the (only) elections held in 1921. Irrelevant though as all consituencies were elected unopposed (4 Unionst 124 SF) and SF refused to turn up.

    The reality is that had all the unpleasntness that followed not happened and the Southern Ireland Parliament functioned, the place would have become a dominion within ten years and adpoted the current flag. It is possible it might not have later become a republic (although I suspect it would after India did, but the only difference is that the word Republic wouldn't have been in the name of the country and the person in Dublin Castle called Governor General not President.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,602
    MikeL said:

    Farage on Ukraine also already leading Guardian and Telegraph websites.

    Most of the time he keeps up the chummy act, and its pretty effective as he's likeable enough, but every now and then he reminds you that for once a Trump comparison is accurate.

    His criticisms of Putin are clearly grudging and, unlike most of what he says, do not come across as authentic, when he parrots a Putin talking point the very next sentence.

    Everything is going for him right now, it's like he cannot help himself from telling his honest opinion when a fudge would be better.

    I wish it would hurt him, but it won't.
  • WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 596
    boulay said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    Oh dear, Johnny Mercer is fucked.

    Fred Thomas’ Certificate of Valediction - signed by the Commanding Officer, Special Forces Support Group



    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1804162095123980459

    Wasn't Mercer complaining about claims he was a combatant? He could have had a glorious seven years behind a desk.
    No, senior special forces bods have vouched for Thomas’ service and it wasn’t behind a desk.
    You have to wonder why Mercer is repeating this claim then. Pretty low.
    Firstly he is desperate and secondly he knows that Thomas cannot come out and say, “actually I did this, this and this” etc which is why it’s pretty despicable of Mercer to call him a Walter Mitty as he knows what the rules are.
    Mercer will potentially be in a spot of bother should he win narrowly in July. Many here will recall Phil Woolas being unseated by an election petition in 2010, due to making false statements about a candidate's character and conduct contrary to section 106 of the Representation of the People Act, and the result being close enough conceivably to have been decisive.

    Quite apart from any defamation issues, he's potentially given himself quite a big problem.
    Has Mercer explained how he is in a position to know whether what Thomas says about his service is true or not?
    Yup. He says "I was a minister in the department" (MOD presumably). Though he must have gone looking, to know career details of an obscure junior officer. Which I think is atrocious, using civil service resources to dig political dirt.
    Well, I was wondering about that as a possibility, but I'm flabbergasted if Mercer has actually admitted he obtained the information through his ministerial office.

    Surely Mercer will be in a lot more than a "spot of bother"? It strikes me as much worse than the shenanigans over Tories having a flutter on the date of the election.

    I’m more surprised that Mercer is saying that people in the MOD can look at a database of which soldiers are doing what and who is in special forces. There is clearly no way at all that could be a security risk. No way. No chance of a spy for a foreign country providing lists and numbers and operations of British personnel.
    I would be shocked if a civil servant would give operational access to a database to go fishing. That's gross misconduct, and something I doubt many senior civil servants are going to be risking for a minster with a couple of weeks left in the job.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,848
    HYUFD said:

    I hope Rishi has written his thankyou letter to the Panorama editor?

    Only helps him if it moves votes to the Tories. This is when he needs Boris to appear, attack Farage on Ukraine, and implore those voters to come home.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,004
    MikeL said:

    Farage on Ukraine also already leading Guardian and Telegraph websites.

    BBC, Mail and Sun now covering it too
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,190
    Oh wow, England might actually do this. 21 from that over.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    boulay said:

    Chris said:

    Carnyx said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    Oh dear, Johnny Mercer is fucked.

    Fred Thomas’ Certificate of Valediction - signed by the Commanding Officer, Special Forces Support Group



    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1804162095123980459

    Wasn't Mercer complaining about claims he was a combatant? He could have had a glorious seven years behind a desk.
    No, senior special forces bods have vouched for Thomas’ service and it wasn’t behind a desk.
    You have to wonder why Mercer is repeating this claim then. Pretty low.
    Firstly he is desperate and secondly he knows that Thomas cannot come out and say, “actually I did this, this and this” etc which is why it’s pretty despicable of Mercer to call him a Walter Mitty as he knows what the rules are.
    Mercer will potentially be in a spot of bother should he win narrowly in July. Many here will recall Phil Woolas being unseated by an election petition in 2010, due to making false statements about a candidate's character and conduct contrary to section 106 of the Representation of the People Act, and the result being close enough conceivably to have been decisive.

    Quite apart from any defamation issues, he's potentially given himself quite a big problem.
    Has Mercer explained how he is in a position to know whether what Thomas says about his service is true or not?
    Yup. He says "I was a minister in the department" (MOD presumably). Though he must have gone looking, to know career details of an obscure junior officer. Which I think is atrocious, using civil service resources to dig political dirt.
    Well, I was wondering about that as a possibility, but I'm flabbergasted if Mercer has actually admitted he obtained the information through his ministerial office.

    Surely Mercer will be in a lot more than a "spot of bother"? It strikes me as much worse than the shenanigans over Tories having a flutter on the date of the election.

    Odd wording, [edit] about Mr M being a minister, speaking out loud at the hustings presumably. But that's what it seems to say. (The other interpretation is that Mr Thomas was never a minister in the department, but that doesn't really make sense in the context.)

    https://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2024-06-21/johnny-mercer-accuses-labour-opponent-of-lying-about-military-service
    Perhaps Mercer just thinks that being a government minister is something particularly heroic, requiring more bravery than leading troops in combat.
    The silly thing is that Mercer has been at the sharp end and should know better than to cast aspersions on someone who cannot respond by saying what he actually did, where and when he was on operations et. It’s a really dickish move but he’s always come across as someone very much high on his own supply.
    The 11 tour of duty guy who asked the question sounded like a retired RM officer who would presumably know what is what. It's possible that Thomas is swinging the lead a bit but not to an extent that is going to register with the general public. Ok perhaps he was the cook, but he was stil a special forces cook in a warzone.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,193
    Sandpit said:

    Oh wow, England might actually do this. 21 from that over.

    You are DavidL and I claim my £5,
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,407
    biggles said:

    Chris said:

    biggles said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    Oh dear, Johnny Mercer is fucked.

    Fred Thomas’ Certificate of Valediction - signed by the Commanding Officer, Special Forces Support Group



    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1804162095123980459

    Wasn't Mercer complaining about claims he was a combatant? He could have had a glorious seven years behind a desk.
    No, senior special forces bods have vouched for Thomas’ service and it wasn’t behind a desk.
    You have to wonder why Mercer is repeating this claim then. Pretty low.
    Firstly he is desperate and secondly he knows that Thomas cannot come out and say, “actually I did this, this and this” etc which is why it’s pretty despicable of Mercer to call him a Walter Mitty as he knows what the rules are.
    Mercer will potentially be in a spot of bother should he win narrowly in July. Many here will recall Phil Woolas being unseated by an election petition in 2010, due to making false statements about a candidate's character and conduct contrary to section 106 of the Representation of the People Act, and the result being close enough conceivably to have been decisive.

    Quite apart from any defamation issues, he's potentially given himself quite a big problem.
    Has Mercer explained how he is in a position to know whether what Thomas says about his service is true or not?
    Yup. He says "I was a minister in the department" (MOD presumably). Though he must have gone looking, to know career details of an obscure junior officer. Which I think is atrocious, using civil service resources to dig political dirt.
    Well, I was wondering about that as a possibility, but I'm flabbergasted if Mercer has actually admitted he obtained the information through his ministerial office.

    Surely Mercer will be in a lot more than a "spot of bother"? It strikes me as much worse than the shenanigans over Tories having a flutter on the date of the election.

    That’s….. interesting. A public servant can have access to all sorts of private information, and indeed often needs to in order to do their job. But the various legal powers plus GDPR are almost always couched in “for a specific purpose” provisions. You need to be careful if you use such data for anything else.
    If he'd done what he seems to be implying, I'm sure it would be a major scandal.

    Perhaps more likely it's just bravado. But implying he'd accessed personal data and misused it to attack a political opponent would be amazingly stupid.
    Thinking charitably, he could have asked a few people who know the bloke.
    And none of these people have come forward to dispute his service in all the time since he was declared as candidate - in Plymouth if Thomas hadn’t had the record the press has ascribed to him - there would be many who would be angry and go to the media to say he’s a Walt. The only person who has is, funnily enough, the chap who might be losing his job to Thomas and also funnily enough has left it until now to start making such claims.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,194
    If the Tories hadn't got rid of Boris then Farage's views on Ukraine would be irrelevant.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,848
    Sandpit said:

    Oh wow, England might actually do this. 21 from that over.

    Yes. My betting position has been, shall we say, “dynamic”.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,602
    Since I don't think Nigel's Putin apologism (which is what 'It's his fault, but we gave him a reason' is, despite his denials) will move the dial at all politically, I am more curious as to whether the Tories will feel it gives them an opening to make an actual concerted attack on Reform.

    As up until now the criticism seems fairly muted, mostly about how please don't follow your heart and vote Reform, because you will let in Labour.

    Which makes sense, since even more Tories would like to vote Reform than those already saying they will, but means they are fighting with an arm tied behind their back.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,019

    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    NEW: Nigel Farage says the West "provoked" Vladimir Putin into invading Ukraine.

    FFS. This is why noone should vote Reform.

    What a dickhead.
    This is the sort of reason why I put them on 17% instead of the likes of 22%.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,628

    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    NEW: Nigel Farage says the West "provoked" Vladimir Putin into invading Ukraine.

    FFS. This is why noone should vote Reform.

    What a dickhead.
    Reform down to 5% and CON up to 30% for polling day?

    LAB still win big but CON get a reasonable Parliamentary group 175?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,848
    boulay said:

    biggles said:

    Chris said:

    biggles said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    Oh dear, Johnny Mercer is fucked.

    Fred Thomas’ Certificate of Valediction - signed by the Commanding Officer, Special Forces Support Group



    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1804162095123980459

    Wasn't Mercer complaining about claims he was a combatant? He could have had a glorious seven years behind a desk.
    No, senior special forces bods have vouched for Thomas’ service and it wasn’t behind a desk.
    You have to wonder why Mercer is repeating this claim then. Pretty low.
    Firstly he is desperate and secondly he knows that Thomas cannot come out and say, “actually I did this, this and this” etc which is why it’s pretty despicable of Mercer to call him a Walter Mitty as he knows what the rules are.
    Mercer will potentially be in a spot of bother should he win narrowly in July. Many here will recall Phil Woolas being unseated by an election petition in 2010, due to making false statements about a candidate's character and conduct contrary to section 106 of the Representation of the People Act, and the result being close enough conceivably to have been decisive.

    Quite apart from any defamation issues, he's potentially given himself quite a big problem.
    Has Mercer explained how he is in a position to know whether what Thomas says about his service is true or not?
    Yup. He says "I was a minister in the department" (MOD presumably). Though he must have gone looking, to know career details of an obscure junior officer. Which I think is atrocious, using civil service resources to dig political dirt.
    Well, I was wondering about that as a possibility, but I'm flabbergasted if Mercer has actually admitted he obtained the information through his ministerial office.

    Surely Mercer will be in a lot more than a "spot of bother"? It strikes me as much worse than the shenanigans over Tories having a flutter on the date of the election.

    That’s….. interesting. A public servant can have access to all sorts of private information, and indeed often needs to in order to do their job. But the various legal powers plus GDPR are almost always couched in “for a specific purpose” provisions. You need to be careful if you use such data for anything else.
    If he'd done what he seems to be implying, I'm sure it would be a major scandal.

    Perhaps more likely it's just bravado. But implying he'd accessed personal data and misused it to attack a political opponent would be amazingly stupid.
    Thinking charitably, he could have asked a few people who know the bloke.
    And none of these people have come forward to dispute his service in all the time since he was declared as candidate - in Plymouth if Thomas hadn’t had the record the press has ascribed to him - there would be many who would be angry and go to the media to say he’s a Walt. The only person who has is, funnily enough, the chap who might be losing his job to Thomas and also funnily enough has left it until now to start making such claims.
    Yes, sorry that reads like I’m supporting the ****. I mean that at this stage that would be the only excuse he could deploy that doesn’t come with… issues. And I don’t think he can deploy it.
  • johntjohnt Posts: 166
    HYUFD said:

    I hope Rishi has written his thankyou letter to the Panorama editor?

    Personally I am not convinced reform voters will defect to the Tories. They think the Tories have failed, why would they vote for failure? They are just as likely in my view to go to Labour or the Lib Dem’s.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,187
    kle4 said:

    Since I don't think Nigel's Putin apologism (which is what 'It's his fault, but we gave him a reason' is, despite his denials) will move the dial at all politically, I am more curious as to whether the Tories will feel it gives them an opening to make an actual concerted attack on Reform.

    As up until now the criticism seems fairly muted, mostly about how please don't follow your heart and vote Reform, because you will let in Labour.

    Which makes sense, since even more Tories would like to vote Reform than those already saying they will, but means they are fighting with an arm tied behind their back.

    How can they now accept him into the party come 5th July?

    Surely that would mean the conservatives splitting?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,602

    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    NEW: Nigel Farage says the West "provoked" Vladimir Putin into invading Ukraine.

    FFS. This is why noone should vote Reform.

    What a dickhead.
    Foreign affairs is, oddly considering being anti-EU made his career, an achilles heel for Farage, much as it was for Corbyn. He doesn't know when the hide his support for unpalatable people.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,848
    kle4 said:

    Since I don't think Nigel's Putin apologism (which is what 'It's his fault, but we gave him a reason' is, despite his denials) will move the dial at all politically, I am more curious as to whether the Tories will feel it gives them an opening to make an actual concerted attack on Reform.

    As up until now the criticism seems fairly muted, mostly about how please don't follow your heart and vote Reform, because you will let in Labour.

    Which makes sense, since even more Tories would like to vote Reform than those already saying they will, but means they are fighting with an arm tied behind their back.

    Option B is that he actually gains votes from Corbynites who haven’t seen the rest of the manifesto…
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    biggles said:

    boulay said:

    biggles said:

    Chris said:

    biggles said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    Oh dear, Johnny Mercer is fucked.

    Fred Thomas’ Certificate of Valediction - signed by the Commanding Officer, Special Forces Support Group



    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1804162095123980459

    Wasn't Mercer complaining about claims he was a combatant? He could have had a glorious seven years behind a desk.
    No, senior special forces bods have vouched for Thomas’ service and it wasn’t behind a desk.
    You have to wonder why Mercer is repeating this claim then. Pretty low.
    Firstly he is desperate and secondly he knows that Thomas cannot come out and say, “actually I did this, this and this” etc which is why it’s pretty despicable of Mercer to call him a Walter Mitty as he knows what the rules are.
    Mercer will potentially be in a spot of bother should he win narrowly in July. Many here will recall Phil Woolas being unseated by an election petition in 2010, due to making false statements about a candidate's character and conduct contrary to section 106 of the Representation of the People Act, and the result being close enough conceivably to have been decisive.

    Quite apart from any defamation issues, he's potentially given himself quite a big problem.
    Has Mercer explained how he is in a position to know whether what Thomas says about his service is true or not?
    Yup. He says "I was a minister in the department" (MOD presumably). Though he must have gone looking, to know career details of an obscure junior officer. Which I think is atrocious, using civil service resources to dig political dirt.
    Well, I was wondering about that as a possibility, but I'm flabbergasted if Mercer has actually admitted he obtained the information through his ministerial office.

    Surely Mercer will be in a lot more than a "spot of bother"? It strikes me as much worse than the shenanigans over Tories having a flutter on the date of the election.

    That’s….. interesting. A public servant can have access to all sorts of private information, and indeed often needs to in order to do their job. But the various legal powers plus GDPR are almost always couched in “for a specific purpose” provisions. You need to be careful if you use such data for anything else.
    If he'd done what he seems to be implying, I'm sure it would be a major scandal.

    Perhaps more likely it's just bravado. But implying he'd accessed personal data and misused it to attack a political opponent would be amazingly stupid.
    Thinking charitably, he could have asked a few people who know the bloke.
    And none of these people have come forward to dispute his service in all the time since he was declared as candidate - in Plymouth if Thomas hadn’t had the record the press has ascribed to him - there would be many who would be angry and go to the media to say he’s a Walt. The only person who has is, funnily enough, the chap who might be losing his job to Thomas and also funnily enough has left it until now to start making such claims.
    Yes, sorry that reads like I’m supporting the ****. I mean that at this stage that would be the only excuse he could deploy that doesn’t come with… issues. And I don’t think he can deploy it.
    Still doesn't work. He's still MoD minister. *For Veterans' Affairs*.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463

    If the Tories hadn't got rid of Boris then Farage's views on Ukraine would be irrelevant.

    They didn't get rid of Boris - he got rid of himself.

    He was also kicked out of parliament.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,193
    I'm sure Matt Goodwin will shortly be tweeting why the Ukraine comments by Farage are a vote winner for Reform.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,190
    johnt said:

    HYUFD said:

    I hope Rishi has written his thankyou letter to the Panorama editor?

    Personally I am not convinced reform voters will defect to the Tories. They think the Tories have failed, why would they vote for failure? They are just as likely in my view to go to Labour or the Lib Dem’s.
    Or stay at home. Lay the turnout, I reckon 60% now.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,858

    kle4 said:

    Since I don't think Nigel's Putin apologism (which is what 'It's his fault, but we gave him a reason' is, despite his denials) will move the dial at all politically, I am more curious as to whether the Tories will feel it gives them an opening to make an actual concerted attack on Reform.

    As up until now the criticism seems fairly muted, mostly about how please don't follow your heart and vote Reform, because you will let in Labour.

    Which makes sense, since even more Tories would like to vote Reform than those already saying they will, but means they are fighting with an arm tied behind their back.

    How can they now accept him into the party come 5th July?

    Surely that would mean the conservatives splitting?

    Anyone who would support Farage joining the Conservative Party might be a party member but they sure as hell aren't really a Conservative.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,602

    If the Tories hadn't got rid of Boris then Farage's views on Ukraine would be irrelevant.

    They didn't get rid of Boris - he got rid of himself.

    He was also kicked out of parliament.
    No he wasn't, he quit Parliament.

    Had he stayed, he had a chance to have have victory over his parliamentary opponents by having the public return him.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,190
    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Since I don't think Nigel's Putin apologism (which is what 'It's his fault, but we gave him a reason' is, despite his denials) will move the dial at all politically, I am more curious as to whether the Tories will feel it gives them an opening to make an actual concerted attack on Reform.

    As up until now the criticism seems fairly muted, mostly about how please don't follow your heart and vote Reform, because you will let in Labour.

    Which makes sense, since even more Tories would like to vote Reform than those already saying they will, but means they are fighting with an arm tied behind their back.

    Option B is that he actually gains votes from Corbynites who haven’t seen the rest of the manifesto…
    LOL, horse shoe theory in action.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,884
    MikeL said:

    Farage comments on Ukraine are made in BBC interview with Nick Robinson.

    Full interview on BBC1 at 7pm.

    As it's a BBC interview, I think good chance it leads BBC1 10pm news.

    Could be a big moment.

    Farage might have just saved the Tories 30 seats.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,661
    Sandpit said:

    johnt said:

    HYUFD said:

    I hope Rishi has written his thankyou letter to the Panorama editor?

    Personally I am not convinced reform voters will defect to the Tories. They think the Tories have failed, why would they vote for failure? They are just as likely in my view to go to Labour or the Lib Dem’s.
    Or stay at home. Lay the turnout, I reckon 60% now.
    Makes note to self: Do not bet on the turnout market.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,407

    boulay said:

    Chris said:

    Carnyx said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    boulay said:

    RobD said:

    Oh dear, Johnny Mercer is fucked.

    Fred Thomas’ Certificate of Valediction - signed by the Commanding Officer, Special Forces Support Group



    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1804162095123980459

    Wasn't Mercer complaining about claims he was a combatant? He could have had a glorious seven years behind a desk.
    No, senior special forces bods have vouched for Thomas’ service and it wasn’t behind a desk.
    You have to wonder why Mercer is repeating this claim then. Pretty low.
    Firstly he is desperate and secondly he knows that Thomas cannot come out and say, “actually I did this, this and this” etc which is why it’s pretty despicable of Mercer to call him a Walter Mitty as he knows what the rules are.
    Mercer will potentially be in a spot of bother should he win narrowly in July. Many here will recall Phil Woolas being unseated by an election petition in 2010, due to making false statements about a candidate's character and conduct contrary to section 106 of the Representation of the People Act, and the result being close enough conceivably to have been decisive.

    Quite apart from any defamation issues, he's potentially given himself quite a big problem.
    Has Mercer explained how he is in a position to know whether what Thomas says about his service is true or not?
    Yup. He says "I was a minister in the department" (MOD presumably). Though he must have gone looking, to know career details of an obscure junior officer. Which I think is atrocious, using civil service resources to dig political dirt.
    Well, I was wondering about that as a possibility, but I'm flabbergasted if Mercer has actually admitted he obtained the information through his ministerial office.

    Surely Mercer will be in a lot more than a "spot of bother"? It strikes me as much worse than the shenanigans over Tories having a flutter on the date of the election.

    Odd wording, [edit] about Mr M being a minister, speaking out loud at the hustings presumably. But that's what it seems to say. (The other interpretation is that Mr Thomas was never a minister in the department, but that doesn't really make sense in the context.)

    https://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2024-06-21/johnny-mercer-accuses-labour-opponent-of-lying-about-military-service
    Perhaps Mercer just thinks that being a government minister is something particularly heroic, requiring more bravery than leading troops in combat.
    The silly thing is that Mercer has been at the sharp end and should know better than to cast aspersions on someone who cannot respond by saying what he actually did, where and when he was on operations et. It’s a really dickish move but he’s always come across as someone very much high on his own supply.
    The 11 tour of duty guy who asked the question sounded like a retired RM officer who would presumably know what is what. It's possible that Thomas is swinging the lead a bit but not to an extent that is going to register with the general public. Ok perhaps he was the cook, but he was stil a special forces cook in a warzone.
    As Casey Rybeck showed us, the cook is the most dangerous special forces soldier around.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037

    I'm sure Matt Goodwin will shortly be tweeting why the Ukraine comments by Farage are a vote winner for Reform.

    *shock poll suggests 89% voting for Putin and Farage*
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,884
    So, Labour secretly plan to tax you till the pips squeak, and Reform secretly plan to back Putin?

    Vote Conservative.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    kle4 said:

    If the Tories hadn't got rid of Boris then Farage's views on Ukraine would be irrelevant.

    They didn't get rid of Boris - he got rid of himself.

    He was also kicked out of parliament.
    No he wasn't, he quit Parliament.

    Had he stayed, he had a chance to have have victory over his parliamentary opponents by having the public return him.
    They wouldn't have though and he knew it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,658
    England are throwing this away again.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,019

    I'm sure Matt Goodwin will shortly be tweeting why the Ukraine comments by Farage are a vote winner for Reform.

    They probably are a vote winner in Castle Point.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,602
    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Since I don't think Nigel's Putin apologism (which is what 'It's his fault, but we gave him a reason' is, despite his denials) will move the dial at all politically, I am more curious as to whether the Tories will feel it gives them an opening to make an actual concerted attack on Reform.

    As up until now the criticism seems fairly muted, mostly about how please don't follow your heart and vote Reform, because you will let in Labour.

    Which makes sense, since even more Tories would like to vote Reform than those already saying they will, but means they are fighting with an arm tied behind their back.

    Option B is that he actually gains votes from Corbynites who haven’t seen the rest of the manifesto…
    They have fewer candidates, but surely those people have Galloway's lot to support dictators if they want. It's classic 'those defending themselves are far worse than those doing the attacking' stuff.

    Our position on Ukraine centres on a condemnation of the expansionary provocation of NATO in alliance with another ethno-nationalist government that throws its own people into a perpetual meat grinder

    https://workerspartybritain.org/manifesto-britain-deserves-better/
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,720

    kle4 said:

    Since I don't think Nigel's Putin apologism (which is what 'It's his fault, but we gave him a reason' is, despite his denials) will move the dial at all politically, I am more curious as to whether the Tories will feel it gives them an opening to make an actual concerted attack on Reform.

    As up until now the criticism seems fairly muted, mostly about how please don't follow your heart and vote Reform, because you will let in Labour.

    Which makes sense, since even more Tories would like to vote Reform than those already saying they will, but means they are fighting with an arm tied behind their back.

    How can they now accept him into the party come 5th July?

    Surely that would mean the conservatives splitting?

    The one bit of good news is this kills any ambitions Farage may have had of a reverse takeover of the Conservative Party. It's actually quite a significant development in that respect.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited June 21

    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    NEW: Nigel Farage says the West "provoked" Vladimir Putin into invading Ukraine.

    FFS. This is why noone should vote Reform.

    What a dickhead.

    Quoting the Torygraph:

    "The leader of Reform UK said that the expansion of Nato and the European Union gave Vladimir Putin “an excuse” to go to war with Ukraine."

    Sorry, but that is an inconvenient truth.

    The Pope, hardly a Putin Toady, said the same the thick end of two years ago.

    What do you think the US would have done if Cuba had joined the Warsaw pact and actually stationed USSR missiles there?

    Similiarly what do you think the US would do if Mexico made a military pact with China and opened Chinese Military bases there?

    He has done it again, got the Great and Good howling with outrage and giving vast publicity to him while people sit at home, quietly nodding "I agree with Nigel".
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,884
    I might go out canvassing for the Conservatives now.

    These comments have disgusted me.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,300
    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    Farage on Ukraine also already leading Guardian and Telegraph websites.

    Most of the time he keeps up the chummy act, and its pretty effective as he's likeable enough, but every now and then he reminds you that for once a Trump comparison is accurate.

    His criticisms of Putin are clearly grudging and, unlike most of what he says, do not come across as authentic, when he parrots a Putin talking point the very next sentence.

    Everything is going for him right now, it's like he cannot help himself from telling his honest opinion when a fudge would be better.

    I wish it would hurt him, but it won't.
    What Farage is saying about Putin will appeal to some of the electorate and probably more than 20%, I would guess.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,602

    kle4 said:

    If the Tories hadn't got rid of Boris then Farage's views on Ukraine would be irrelevant.

    They didn't get rid of Boris - he got rid of himself.

    He was also kicked out of parliament.
    No he wasn't, he quit Parliament.

    Had he stayed, he had a chance to have have victory over his parliamentary opponents by having the public return him.
    They wouldn't have though and he knew it.
    Maybe. Which just shows he was a chicken. He tries so hard and his supporters try to hard to make it look like he was tossed out so that it means he wasn't a chicken, but there's no getting around that he didn't even give his constituents a chance to judge him and reject Parliament's view.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121

    These comments by Farage why a merger between Reform & the Tories won't happen.

    Yes, that's my main takeaway.

    I'm not sure his comments will shift many votes (not in Con's favour anyway) but it surely means whatever is left of the Conservative Party on 5th July couldn't possibly consider a merger with Reform.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,602
    johnt said:

    HYUFD said:

    I hope Rishi has written his thankyou letter to the Panorama editor?

    Personally I am not convinced reform voters will defect to the Tories. They think the Tories have failed, why would they vote for failure? They are just as likely in my view to go to Labour or the Lib Dem’s.
    Some number of them at least - having mentally decided to switch away from the Tories some can be tempted back, but others will seek out others, even if policy wise it may not make much sense.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,884
    I'm putting up a poster for Damian Hinds.

    Enough.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,668
    edited June 21
    Lib Dem anecdata

    Got a call from our local office today saying could I come out to door knock in carshalton and wallington this weekend (Tory majority 600) because whilst the Conservative vote has dropped, it’s not dropping as much as hoped and they are facing a lot of local activity from Labour who are pointing to national polling data and saying Labour are the anti Tory choice there.

    Reminder this is a long time Lib Dem seat that was lost recently.

    OK they may be panicking unnecessarily but I think we’ll see a lot of this. Witness NPXMP in Wantage. Labour4theduopoly
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,602
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm sure Matt Goodwin will shortly be tweeting why the Ukraine comments by Farage are a vote winner for Reform.

    They probably are a vote winner in Castle Point.
    Why would the people in Castle Point be bigger fans of Putin like Farage is than elsewhere in the country?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,661
    darkage said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    Farage on Ukraine also already leading Guardian and Telegraph websites.

    Most of the time he keeps up the chummy act, and its pretty effective as he's likeable enough, but every now and then he reminds you that for once a Trump comparison is accurate.

    His criticisms of Putin are clearly grudging and, unlike most of what he says, do not come across as authentic, when he parrots a Putin talking point the very next sentence.

    Everything is going for him right now, it's like he cannot help himself from telling his honest opinion when a fudge would be better.

    I wish it would hurt him, but it won't.
    What Farage is saying about Putin will appeal to some of the electorate and probably more than 20%, I would guess.
    The Russian electorate maybe - and perhaps 97% of them (just a guess).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,658

    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    NEW: Nigel Farage says the West "provoked" Vladimir Putin into invading Ukraine.

    FFS. This is why noone should vote Reform.

    What a dickhead.

    Quoting the Torygraph:

    "The leader of Reform UK said that the expansion of Nato and the European Union gave Vladimir Putin “an excuse” to go to war with Ukraine."

    Sorry, but that is an inconvenient truth.

    The Pope, hardly a Putin Toady, said the same the thick end of two years ago.

    What do you think the US would have done if Cuba had joined the Warsaw pact and actually stationed USSR missiles there?

    Similiarly what do you think the US would do if Mexico made a military pact with China and opened Chinese Military bases there?

    He has done it again, got the Great and Good howling with outrage and giving vast publicity to him while people sit at home, quietly nodding "I agree with Nigel".
    Nope. He's scum.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,374

    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    NEW: Nigel Farage says the West "provoked" Vladimir Putin into invading Ukraine.

    What a fucking appeaser.

    Any vote for Farage/Reform is a vote for Putin.
    No Ukranian refugees but the FSB are welcome anytime in Farage world.
  • I
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    NEW: Nigel Farage says the West "provoked" Vladimir Putin into invading Ukraine.

    FFS. This is why noone should vote Reform.

    What a dickhead.

    Quoting the Torygraph:

    "The leader of Reform UK said that the expansion of Nato and the European Union gave Vladimir Putin “an excuse” to go to war with Ukraine."

    Sorry, but that is an inconvenient truth.

    The Pope, hardly a Putin Toady, said the same the thick end of two years ago.

    What do you think the US would have done if Cuba had joined the Warsaw pact and actually stationed USSR missiles there?

    Similiarly what do you think the US would do if Mexico made a military pact with China and opened Chinese Military bases there?

    He has done it again, got the Great and Good howling with outrage and giving vast publicity to him while people sit at home, quietly nodding "I agree with Nigel".
    Nope. He's scum.
    I rest my case.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,602
    GIN1138 said:

    These comments by Farage why a merger between Reform & the Tories won't happen.

    Yes, that's my main takeaway.

    I'm not sure his comments will shift many votes (not in Con's favour anyway) but it surely means whatever is left of the Conservative Party on 5th July couldn't possibly consider a merger with Reform.
    I wish I had your optimism.

    People will believe a lot when they are desperate, and as much as Farage's claims to hold Putin at fault are clearly a lie (hence raising the ridiculous NATO provocation line), would a devastated Tory party find it acceptable to pretend to believe it?

    Not right now. But if they were at 50 seats? If it was a pact rather than a merger perhaps?

    Probably still no. But not definitely. And it seems to be the only point of criticism they would have with Farage at this point.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,019
    England flop again.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,848
    edited June 21
    Balls. One more boundary. All we needed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,190
    edited June 21
    So near, yet so far for England.

    Who says cricket isn’t the best sport?
  • Mail Top Comment.

    "I don't entirely agree with Farage, but he makes a valid point. Gorbachev was promised that the Soviet satellite states would never be allowed into NATO and that promise was broken. Then, Eastern European states started joining the EU. That in no way justifies invading Ukraine, but it does to some extent explain it."

    +500 -84
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,628
    Hopefully ENG can beat USA on Sunday and we'll see still be in the semi final! 👍
  • WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 596
    Who is offering individual seat predictions?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,193
    edited June 21
    ...
This discussion has been closed.