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Why we will be discussing AV and electoral reform a lot more – politicalbetting.com

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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,291

    There is nothing unfair about Labour getting 75% of MPs if it wins 75% of constituencies under FPTP.

    Proportionality is not fairer than every locale having a single representative of their choosing.

    That Labour might have so many MPs and other parties do not will be the choice of the voters, and the consequences of the respective parties actions/inactions accordingly.

    But Labour beware - what FPTP gives, it can also take away, if they piss off the electorate like the Tories have.

    Democracy works. FPTP is perfectly democratic.

    Correction - FPTP is imperfectly democratic.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,841
    Heathener said:

    ALSO, didn’t the Conservatives do away with PR for the London mayorality?

    They dumped the Supplementary Vote system and moved it to FPTP.

    Was Tim Stanley complaining then?

    You can't have PR for the election of a single individual.
  • Options
    DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 424

    Heathener said:

    ALSO, didn’t the Conservatives do away with PR for the London mayorality?

    They dumped the Supplementary Vote system and moved it to FPTP.

    Was Tim Stanley complaining then?

    You can't have PR for the election of a single individual.
    The very idea is a chimera
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    mickydroymickydroy Posts: 313
    Can anyone confirm who Murdochs papers are backing in this election, a couple of weeks ago someone said on here that they were backing Labour, since then I have not seen any concrete proof, I'm sure at this stage of the campaign in 1997, they were full square behind Blair
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,462

    Heathener said:

    ALSO, didn’t the Conservatives do away with PR for the London mayorality?

    They dumped the Supplementary Vote system and moved it to FPTP.

    Was Tim Stanley complaining then?

    You can't have PR for the election of a single individual.
    Turn it into a job share.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,062
    edited June 21

    Heathener said:

    ALSO, didn’t the Conservatives do away with PR for the London mayorality?

    They dumped the Supplementary Vote system and moved it to FPTP.

    Was Tim Stanley complaining then?

    You can't have PR for the election of a single individual.
    That doesn’t address my point and it’s also not true. The previous supplementary vote system was a form of PR. It allowed voters to express their own proportional preferences.

    If you PR advocates want to be taken seriously then you can’t be purists. But that’s part of the problem: you don’t agree about one perfect alternative.

    Hence why we booted it out 13 years ago and voted to retain FPTP.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,417

    Heathener said:

    ALSO, didn’t the Conservatives do away with PR for the London mayorality?

    They dumped the Supplementary Vote system and moved it to FPTP.

    Was Tim Stanley complaining then?

    You can't have PR for the election of a single individual.
    Turn it into a job share.
    Anyone interested might want to look at the voting system for the leadership of the Scottish Green Party at Holyrood. (But don't ask me, as I dunno.)
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,020
    Ukrainian app gives me an alert 30 min before power goes out, which allows me to quick cook dinner before it’s too late

    Having a hard time imagining other cities in the world having this level of digital sophistication during a wartime energy crisis

    https://x.com/timkmak/status/1804153156282015968
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,474
    Nunu5 said:

    AV and Scottish independence in one thread, you lot don't know how lucky you all are.

    next time could we get a subtle ABBA in there somewhere, please...........
    Are you suggesting that it's important to emphasise the disadvantages of a system where The Winner Takes It All?
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    rkelkrkelk Posts: 19
    mickydroy said:

    Can anyone confirm who Murdochs papers are backing in this election, a couple of weeks ago someone said on here that they were backing Labour, since then I have not seen any concrete proof, I'm sure at this stage of the campaign in 1997, they were full square behind Blair

    I was wondering the same thing. The Sun and the Times still seem pretty hostile to Labour so far
  • Options
    agingjb2agingjb2 Posts: 99
    I voted for AV because, proportional or not, it would have meant a simple extension to STV at a later stage.

    I do not expect to get STV in my lifetime (I will see one more general election, if I am lucky). Pity, because as a voter, not a partisan, STV would be my choice.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,020
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    ALSO, didn’t the Conservatives do away with PR for the London mayorality?

    They dumped the Supplementary Vote system and moved it to FPTP.

    Was Tim Stanley complaining then?

    You can't have PR for the election of a single individual.
    That doesn’t address my point and it’s also not true. The previous supplementary vote system was a form of PR. It allowed voters to express their own proportional preferences.

    If you PR advocates want to be taken seriously then you can’t be purists. But that’s part of the problem: you don’t agree about one perfect alternative.

    Hence why we booted it out 13 years ago and voted to retain FPTP.
    Graded preference is clearly not the same as proportional representation.
    I thought you were someone who didn't like snark; I'm disappointed that you're resorting to it yourself.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,468
    mickydroy said:

    Can anyone confirm who Murdochs papers are backing in this election, a couple of weeks ago someone said on here that they were backing Labour, since then I have not seen any concrete proof, I'm sure at this stage of the campaign in 1997, they were full square behind Blair

    From last night's Popbitch

    Poll/Positions

    When the Sun goes down


    There's a lot of internal consternation at the Times as editor Tony Gallagher is planning to have the paper endorse the Conservatives. This, despite fortnightly surveys of their readers making it clear as far back as 18 months ago that the overwhelming majority of them intend to vote Labour this time around.

    Then again, Tony has never really seen eye-to-eye with his readers.

    Back when he was editor of The Sun, the paper ran a survey about its readers' sex lives. In among the results, one curious bit of information that cropped up was that Sun readers claimed the time they were most likely to have sex was 7:30pm.

    When this finding was presented to him, Tony's response was: "What? But it's not even dark then..."
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,837
    rkelk said:

    mickydroy said:

    Can anyone confirm who Murdochs papers are backing in this election, a couple of weeks ago someone said on here that they were backing Labour, since then I have not seen any concrete proof, I'm sure at this stage of the campaign in 1997, they were full square behind Blair

    I was wondering the same thing. The Sun and the Times still seem pretty hostile to Labour so far
    Popbitch this week said the Times will back the Sunak Tories, the Sun however is not yet confirmed either way.

    The betting is the Sun will grudgingly back Starmer, he has history at the CPS prosecuting News International journalists but with positive words for Farage too. If Reform overtook the Tories in most polls Murdoch would likely tell the Sun to endorse Reform

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw88x6ww1p8o
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,837
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don't have a problem with PR. It would ensure an independent Tory party on even 10-15% of the vote would still win 65-100 seats for example whereas under FPTP it wouldn't win any seats at all.

    In NZ, Italy and Israel and Sweden there are now right of centre coalition governments in power in PR systems so the argument it would always lead to Labour led governments doesn't work. It would also ensure the SNP couldn't win a majority of Scottish seats as TSE says on less than half the vote and also it would avoid Labour landslides on less than 45% of the vote as we will likely get now.

    It would also mean no more Tory landslides and fewer majority governments of one party but that doesn't necessarily have to be a bad thing if it leads to more consensus and higher turnout as all votes count. I would prefer the German style system though with FPTP constituencies and PR top up lists so a constituency link is retained for some MPs

    Do you think there's a stronger argument for PR at local level?

    In Newham, Labour won 61% of the vote and 64 of the 66 seats. The Greens got 16.5% and 2 seats. The 14% who voted Conservative got nothing as did the 8.5% who voted for the other parties.

    I'm not disputing the fact Labour won a majority of the vote and therefore a majority of the seats but if you apply the 5% threshold for votes, you can argue Labour should have 44 under a proportional system, the Greens 12 and the Conservatives ten.

    PR would therefore allow for the election of 10 Conservatives and a Conservative voice on the Council, albeit a minority but still a voice. The current system means Conservative voters have no voice.

    That's not right and I think piloting STV in local elections might be a good start but with safeguards for local Independents.
    Yes I would back PR at local level, though again on a top up basis with bigger FPTP 3 councillor wards
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,841
    edited June 21
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    ALSO, didn’t the Conservatives do away with PR for the London mayorality?

    They dumped the Supplementary Vote system and moved it to FPTP.

    Was Tim Stanley complaining then?

    You can't have PR for the election of a single individual.
    That doesn’t address my point and it’s also not true. The previous supplementary vote system was a form of PR. It allowed voters to express their own proportional preferences.

    If you PR advocates want to be taken seriously then you can’t be purists. But that’s part of the problem: you don’t agree about one perfect alternative.

    Hence why we booted it out 13 years ago and voted to retain FPTP.
    Sigh.

    You're one of the worst individuals for assigning people you disagree with to a group identity, and then arguing against that group identity, rather than the point made by the individual in discussion with you.

    Online is already a difficult medium for having complex and contentious discussions, but that's the sort of approach that makes it really easy to ignite into a raging firestorm. Please try to stop.

    SV is marginally better than FPTP, because it allows people to give a second preference. That makes it a preferential voting system, not a proportional one. Preferential systems have different advantages and disadvantages to proportional ones, and one of the beauties of STV is that it is a preferential and a proportional system all in one.

    Personally I am happy to vote in favour of any incremental improvement to the voting system, which is why I voted for AV, despite it not being a proportional system, or as good as my preferred system.

    What was your point again?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,020
    Thomas is the sole vote in favour of protecting the right of domestic abusers to own guns.
    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/22-915_8o6b.pdf
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,895
    HYUFD said:

    rkelk said:

    mickydroy said:

    Can anyone confirm who Murdochs papers are backing in this election, a couple of weeks ago someone said on here that they were backing Labour, since then I have not seen any concrete proof, I'm sure at this stage of the campaign in 1997, they were full square behind Blair

    I was wondering the same thing. The Sun and the Times still seem pretty hostile to Labour so far
    Popbitch this week said the Times will back the Sunak Tories, the Sun however is not yet confirmed either way.

    The betting is the Sun will grudgingly back Starmer, he has history at the CPS prosecuting News International journalists but with positive words for Farage too. If Reform overtook the Tories in most polls Murdoch would likely tell the Sun to endorse Reform

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw88x6ww1p8o
    I’m thinking the Sun and the Times will say that they accept Labour will win but they are concerned about Labour’s tax plans etc and so whilst they are not suggesting the Tories should remain in charge it’s important to vote Tory and not to vote reform in order to ensure a robust opposition to Labour.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,837
    boulay said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkelk said:

    mickydroy said:

    Can anyone confirm who Murdochs papers are backing in this election, a couple of weeks ago someone said on here that they were backing Labour, since then I have not seen any concrete proof, I'm sure at this stage of the campaign in 1997, they were full square behind Blair

    I was wondering the same thing. The Sun and the Times still seem pretty hostile to Labour so far
    Popbitch this week said the Times will back the Sunak Tories, the Sun however is not yet confirmed either way.

    The betting is the Sun will grudgingly back Starmer, he has history at the CPS prosecuting News International journalists but with positive words for Farage too. If Reform overtook the Tories in most polls Murdoch would likely tell the Sun to endorse Reform

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw88x6ww1p8o
    I’m thinking the Sun and the Times will say that they accept Labour will win but they are concerned about Labour’s tax plans etc and so whilst they are not suggesting the Tories should remain in charge it’s important to vote Tory and not to vote reform in order to ensure a robust opposition to Labour.

    The Times will say that, the Sun however likely has far more Reform voters amongst its readers than the Times and Murdoch will therefore probably hedge his bets. The Times will back the Tories, the Sun will back Labour but with strong positive words for Farage
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,291

    Everyone saying it's impossible for FPTP to be changed, how did other countries manage it?

    From what I can see there's a mixed record for it being changed. India and US* haven't, Australia and Ireland have, for example. So it's clearly doable.

    *I don't consider US a good example of how to/how not to change anything cause of their fetishisation of their constitution

    Ireland have used STV since the beginning. When you have a war of independence it tends to encourage a bit of utopian thinking when writing a new constitution. It's a bit harder to make the change to an established system.
    STV in Ireland was imposed by the BRITISH administration, as means of attempting to blunt the domination of most Irish constituencies by Sinn Fein under FPTP.

    However, the Irish in the Free State then the Republic have retained STV ever since; up North the Unionists ditched it ASAP for FPTP, in order to lock in their dominance, along with gerrymandering & other sharp practice(s).
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,576
    We Think

    Labour 43%, Con 22%, Reform 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 7%.
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    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,860

    Pulpstar said:

    The idea AV would produce a significantly different outcome is for the birds I think.

    I think we’d get a slightly different result under multi member STV which would be my first choice.
    We'd definitely get a different result. Instead of it being announced on Friday morning, we'd have to wait until the middle of the following week.
    Imagine the difference electronic voting would make.

    22:01 Result
    22:10 End of speeches
    22:20 Everyone to the pub
    06:00 Talking heads still talking
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,417
    edited June 21
    O/T - or perhaps not, as it is about the Scots Parliament, and it's Friday teatime. Interesting blog on pieces of the old Pmt building and a wider project of what that part of Edinburgh used to look like. Specially for @DavidL too.

    https://www.old-edinburgh.com/
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,643
    Nigelb said:

    Thomas is the sole vote in favour of protecting the right of domestic abusers to own guns.
    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/22-915_8o6b.pdf

    It's rare him and Alito disagree on anything.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,841
    Sean_F said:

    We Think

    Labour 43%, Con 22%, Reform 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 7%.

    It's the BigG swing from the Lib Dems back to the Tories. LDM -3, CON +2 the big movers on that poll.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,837
    edited June 21
    Sean_F said:

    We Think

    Labour 43%, Con 22%, Reform 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 7%.

    Taken yesterday and today. Labour unchanged, Tories up 2%, Reform down 1% and LDs down 3%. Greens and SNP up 1%

    https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1804152514545099071
  • Options
    rkelkrkelk Posts: 19
    HYUFD said:

    rkelk said:

    mickydroy said:

    Can anyone confirm who Murdochs papers are backing in this election, a couple of weeks ago someone said on here that they were backing Labour, since then I have not seen any concrete proof, I'm sure at this stage of the campaign in 1997, they were full square behind Blair

    I was wondering the same thing. The Sun and the Times still seem pretty hostile to Labour so far
    Popbitch this week said the Times will back the Sunak Tories, the Sun however is not yet confirmed either way.

    The betting is the Sun will grudgingly back Starmer, he has history at the CPS prosecuting News International journalists but with positive words for Farage too. If Reform overtook the Tories in most polls Murdoch would likely tell the Sun to endorse Reform

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw88x6ww1p8o
    Cheers for that. Any idea about the other papers? FT, Independent, Economist etc?

    It just feels quiet at the moment, like the media are hedging their bets
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,841

    Pulpstar said:

    The idea AV would produce a significantly different outcome is for the birds I think.

    I think we’d get a slightly different result under multi member STV which would be my first choice.
    We'd definitely get a different result. Instead of it being announced on Friday morning, we'd have to wait until the middle of the following week.
    Imagine the difference electronic voting would make.

    22:01 Result
    22:10 End of speeches
    22:20 Everyone to the pub
    06:00 Talking heads still talking
    Unless the Russians had accidentally published the result the day before, of course.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,643
    Sean_F said:

    We Think

    Labour 43%, Con 22%, Reform 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 7%.

    They seem to be producing some extraordinarily good constituency polls for the greens. Both the NS and YG MRPs pick up a touch of the "We think" green surge but it's considerably larger to the point of winning the seat in their constituency polls.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,517
    Pulpstar said:

    The idea AV would produce a significantly different outcome is for the birds I think.

    AV would probably lead to an even bigger Tory defeat. It hard-codes tactical voting in, in the sense that a voter can list all the options they prefer to X before them, in order to keep them out. No split 'progressive' votes any more. Even Reform voters wouldn't be that likely to give the Tory their second (or later) preference, with surveys (when they had a smaller share, admittedly, showing a lot wouldn't vote for anyone in the absence of Reform, and the rest scatter all over, with the Tories taking only a bare plurality).
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,462

    Pulpstar said:

    The idea AV would produce a significantly different outcome is for the birds I think.

    I think we’d get a slightly different result under multi member STV which would be my first choice.
    We'd definitely get a different result. Instead of it being announced on Friday morning, we'd have to wait until the middle of the following week.
    Imagine the difference electronic voting would make.

    22:01 Result
    22:10 End of speeches
    22:20 Everyone to the pub
    06:00 Talking heads still talking
    Instead of a recount, candidates could appeal for a full revote. It would be a risky move because voters could punish them for it, but it would allow for buyer's remorse to be corrected.
  • Options
    mickydroymickydroy Posts: 313
    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkelk said:

    mickydroy said:

    Can anyone confirm who Murdochs papers are backing in this election, a couple of weeks ago someone said on here that they were backing Labour, since then I have not seen any concrete proof, I'm sure at this stage of the campaign in 1997, they were full square behind Blair

    I was wondering the same thing. The Sun and the Times still seem pretty hostile to Labour so far
    Popbitch this week said the Times will back the Sunak Tories, the Sun however is not yet confirmed either way.

    The betting is the Sun will grudgingly back Starmer, he has history at the CPS prosecuting News International journalists but with positive words for Farage too. If Reform overtook the Tories in most polls Murdoch would likely tell the Sun to endorse Reform

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw88x6ww1p8o
    I’m thinking the Sun and the Times will say that they accept Labour will win but they are concerned about Labour’s tax plans etc and so whilst they are not suggesting the Tories should remain in charge it’s important to vote Tory and not to vote reform in order to ensure a robust opposition to Labour.

    The Times will say that, the Sun however likely has far more Reform voters amongst its readers than the Times and Murdoch will therefore probably hedge his bets. The Times will back the Tories, the Sun will back Labour but with strong positive words for Farage
    Would be a feather in the cap for Starmer, if he could win without the backing of the Murdoch press, something Blair can't claim, although obviously newspaper sales are well down on 1997
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,939

    There is nothing unfair about Labour getting 75% of MPs if it wins 75% of constituencies under FPTP.

    Proportionality is not fairer than every locale having a single representative of their choosing.

    That Labour might have so many MPs and other parties do not will be the choice of the voters, and the consequences of the respective parties actions/inactions accordingly.

    But Labour beware - what FPTP gives, it can also take away, if they piss off the electorate like the Tories have.

    Democracy works. FPTP is perfectly democratic.

    It's not the choice of the voters. The voters don't get to say Labour should win 75% of MPs. They just get to pick their local MP and through a system that has obvious problems (the independence of irrelevant alternatives condition in particular, which is what f***s up the Tories at present).
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,895
    rkelk said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkelk said:

    mickydroy said:

    Can anyone confirm who Murdochs papers are backing in this election, a couple of weeks ago someone said on here that they were backing Labour, since then I have not seen any concrete proof, I'm sure at this stage of the campaign in 1997, they were full square behind Blair

    I was wondering the same thing. The Sun and the Times still seem pretty hostile to Labour so far
    Popbitch this week said the Times will back the Sunak Tories, the Sun however is not yet confirmed either way.

    The betting is the Sun will grudgingly back Starmer, he has history at the CPS prosecuting News International journalists but with positive words for Farage too. If Reform overtook the Tories in most polls Murdoch would likely tell the Sun to endorse Reform

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw88x6ww1p8o
    Cheers for that. Any idea about the other papers? FT, Independent, Economist etc?

    It just feels quiet at the moment, like the media are hedging their bets
    There’s probably a lot to be said for an editor to not endorse anyone this time round. We all know Labour will win but if they screw up none of their readers can point at the editor and say “you backed these roasters and now look at things”. No real benefit in pinning on a rosette.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 12,228

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    ALSO, didn’t the Conservatives do away with PR for the London mayorality?

    They dumped the Supplementary Vote system and moved it to FPTP.

    Was Tim Stanley complaining then?

    You can't have PR for the election of a single individual.
    That doesn’t address my point and it’s also not true. The previous supplementary vote system was a form of PR. It allowed voters to express their own proportional preferences.

    If you PR advocates want to be taken seriously then you can’t be purists. But that’s part of the problem: you don’t agree about one perfect alternative.

    Hence why we booted it out 13 years ago and voted to retain FPTP.
    Sigh.

    You're one of the worst individuals for assigning people you disagree with to a group identity, and then arguing against that group identity, rather than the point made by the individual in discussion with you.

    Online is already a difficult medium for having complex and contentious discussions, but that's the sort of approach that makes it really easy to ignite into a raging firestorm. Please try to stop.

    SV is marginally better than FPTP, because it allows people to give a second preference. That makes it a preferential voting system, not a proportional one. Preferential systems have different advantages and disadvantages to proportional ones, and one of the beauties of STV is that it is a preferential and a proportional system all in one.

    Personally I am happy to vote in favour of any incremental improvement to the voting system, which is why I voted for AV, despite it not being a proportional system, or as good as my preferred system.

    What was your point again?
    STV is my favoured system. ISTR FPTP is second above AV, but I can't now think of a good reason why that should be the case. Any systemof party lists like d'hondt comes bottom, though it's not without its advantages.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,474
    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkelk said:

    mickydroy said:

    Can anyone confirm who Murdochs papers are backing in this election, a couple of weeks ago someone said on here that they were backing Labour, since then I have not seen any concrete proof, I'm sure at this stage of the campaign in 1997, they were full square behind Blair

    I was wondering the same thing. The Sun and the Times still seem pretty hostile to Labour so far
    Popbitch this week said the Times will back the Sunak Tories, the Sun however is not yet confirmed either way.

    The betting is the Sun will grudgingly back Starmer, he has history at the CPS prosecuting News International journalists but with positive words for Farage too. If Reform overtook the Tories in most polls Murdoch would likely tell the Sun to endorse Reform

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw88x6ww1p8o
    I’m thinking the Sun and the Times will say that they accept Labour will win but they are concerned about Labour’s tax plans etc and so whilst they are not suggesting the Tories should remain in charge it’s important to vote Tory and not to vote reform in order to ensure a robust opposition to Labour.

    The Times will say that, the Sun however likely has far more Reform voters amongst its readers than the Times and Murdoch will therefore probably hedge his bets. The Times will back the Tories, the Sun will back Labour but with strong positive words for Farage
    What's going to stick in Murdoch's throat more?

    Backing a loser or backing Starmer? They're both pretty ghastly prospects.

    If I were involved in The Sun, I'd be really tempted to run a big celebrity trivia exclusive on July 4.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,841
    Deeply troubling to see the former defence minister of Slovakia charged with treason for providing Ukraine with military equipment.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,084

    OT, I think I was, like TSE, one of the few Tories (yep I used to be one back then) that voted in favour of AV. It seems obvious to me that it is a far better system than FPTP. The reality is that the Conservative Party had the opportunity to do electoral reform and flunked it. Now Labour will do it, and like their gerrymandering of devolution (which went slightly wrong for them), they will try to make sure it favours them and them alone.

    I'm not categorising you as a Conservative, Mr F, although I suppose it's arguable that one can, noways, differentiate between Conservatives and Tories, but I think the current Government and it's supporters have a nerve when they complain about possible Labour gerrymandering.
    During the past eight years we';v seen efforts to making voting more difficult for young people, altered the size of constituencies on a basis which assists the Conservatives and enfranchised overseas voters who, it was thought, would be more likely to vote the 'Right' way. We've also seen attacks on Parliament when it refused to do what the (Conservative) Government wanted.

    Edit: and of course the change of system for the Mayoral and PCC elections!

    I don't disagree with your criticism of Tory misdemeanours Mr C, but it pales when compared to the blatant gerrymandering of devolution. Devolution as an idea was good IMO, but it was clearly designed to favour Labour (and as @Carnyx mentioned the Libs too) in perpetuity. The fact that it backfired for a while does not make it forgivable. IMO any constitutional change needs to be subjected to genuine and balanced scrutiny by a cross party independent constitutional panel. Problem of course is how you ensure that lack of bias.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,525
    edited June 21
    Sean_F said:

    We Think

    Labour 43%, Con 22%, Reform 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 7%.

    Changes from one week ago:

    Lab =
    Con +2
    Ref -1
    LD -3
    Green +1

    Changes seem quite different to majority of other polls.

    Though arguably largely MOE.
  • Options
    ScarpiaScarpia Posts: 50

    Pulpstar said:

    The idea AV would produce a significantly different outcome is for the birds I think.

    I think we’d get a slightly different result under multi member STV which would be my first choice.
    We'd definitely get a different result. Instead of it being announced on Friday morning, we'd have to wait until the middle of the following week.
    Imagine the difference electronic voting would make.

    22:01 Result
    22:10 End of speeches
    22:20 Everyone to the pub
    06:00 Talking heads still talking
    Software and terminals by HMGs provider of choice Fujitsu, no doubt
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,939
    Heathener said:

    ALSO, didn’t the Conservatives do away with PR for the London mayorality?

    They dumped the Supplementary Vote system and moved it to FPTP.

    Was Tim Stanley complaining then?

    No. The Supplementary Vote is not a proportional system. An election for a single mayor can never be proportional.

    Supplementary Vote is an ordinal system, and ordinality is a good thing and something associated with electoral reform, but it is different to proportionality. You can have ordinal systems that are not proportional (AV, SV) and proportional systems that are not ordinal (closed list systems).

    Obviously, the best system is proportional and ordinal, so something like STV or open lists.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,939
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    ALSO, didn’t the Conservatives do away with PR for the London mayorality?

    They dumped the Supplementary Vote system and moved it to FPTP.

    Was Tim Stanley complaining then?

    You can't have PR for the election of a single individual.
    That doesn’t address my point and it’s also not true. The previous supplementary vote system was a form of PR. It allowed voters to express their own proportional preferences.

    If you PR advocates want to be taken seriously then you can’t be purists. But that’s part of the problem: you don’t agree about one perfect alternative.

    Hence why we booted it out 13 years ago and voted to retain FPTP.
    No, that is not what these words mean.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,888
    edited June 21
    boulay said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkelk said:

    mickydroy said:

    Can anyone confirm who Murdochs papers are backing in this election, a couple of weeks ago someone said on here that they were backing Labour, since then I have not seen any concrete proof, I'm sure at this stage of the campaign in 1997, they were full square behind Blair

    I was wondering the same thing. The Sun and the Times still seem pretty hostile to Labour so far
    Popbitch this week said the Times will back the Sunak Tories, the Sun however is not yet confirmed either way.

    The betting is the Sun will grudgingly back Starmer, he has history at the CPS prosecuting News International journalists but with positive words for Farage too. If Reform overtook the Tories in most polls Murdoch would likely tell the Sun to endorse Reform

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw88x6ww1p8o
    I’m thinking the Sun and the Times will say that they accept Labour will win but they are concerned about Labour’s tax plans etc and so whilst they are not suggesting the Tories should remain in charge it’s important to vote Tory and not to vote reform in order to ensure a robust opposition to Labour.

    I had a conversation at the pub with a Tory activist I bumped into last night. He spent a while going on about what a waste of space Sunak is, how the Tories had made a total hash of the past few years, how dire it was on the doorsteps, and how broadly deserved that was.

    I said to him, "You don't sound as if you want to win. Do you actually want five more years?" There was a very long pause and he then said that he did as he was terrified Labour would "crash the economy" and they at least needed enough Tories to act as a brake (something he didn't believe the Lib Dems and others could do).

    My fear for the Tories is that's such a hard message to sell. As soon as you sound as if you don't want it any more, you simply won't get it - it's the stench of decay and death, and people don't want to be associated with it. By the time you get to, "but it's important we can scrutinise legislation on the agriculture sub-committee..." everyone has already turned off.

    There's a sharp contrast with Davey. Everyone knows he's not going to be PM but at least he seems to want people's vote, is actively enjoying the whole thing, and conveys messages about the sort of things he'd want to push on like water quality and social care. That's not to say there will be crossover - my view is the hill is far too steep. But he's got something for the activists to sell (as has Farage, even if it's not to my taste at all).
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,062
    Nigelb said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    ALSO, didn’t the Conservatives do away with PR for the London mayorality?

    They dumped the Supplementary Vote system and moved it to FPTP.

    Was Tim Stanley complaining then?

    You can't have PR for the election of a single individual.
    That doesn’t address my point and it’s also not true. The previous supplementary vote system was a form of PR. It allowed voters to express their own proportional preferences.

    If you PR advocates want to be taken seriously then you can’t be purists. But that’s part of the problem: you don’t agree about one perfect alternative.

    Hence why we booted it out 13 years ago and voted to retain FPTP.
    Graded preference is clearly not the same as proportional representation.
    I thought you were someone who didn't like snark; I'm disappointed that you're resorting to it yourself.
    I don’t care for snide but what was snarky in my comment? I can’t see anything at all. Perhaps it was lost in internet comms - often a problem in online debates.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,877
    edited June 21
    MikeL said:

    Sean_F said:

    We Think

    Labour 43%, Con 22%, Reform 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 7%.

    Changes from one week ago:

    Lab =
    Con +2
    Ref -1
    LD -3
    Green +1

    Changes seem quite different to majority of other polls.

    Though arguably largely MOE.
    Not so much for the LibDems.

    Maybe Davey's fannying around is wooing the media, but leaving the voters thinking "prat...."
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,948

    Deeply troubling to see the former defence minister of Slovakia charged with treason for providing Ukraine with military equipment.

    Details:
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/giving-slovak-jets-air-defence-kyiv-was-sabotage-new-government-says-2024-06-21/

    I'd argue the new Slovakian government is treasonous in its lurch towards Moscow.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 12,228

    Heathener said:

    ALSO, didn’t the Conservatives do away with PR for the London mayorality?

    They dumped the Supplementary Vote system and moved it to FPTP.

    Was Tim Stanley complaining then?

    You can't have PR for the election of a single individual.
    Well said. And nor, I would argue, can you have FPTP - we had an entertaining argument on here some months back about what FPTP means. It was convincingly suggested that technically the system for electing the London mayor is Single Member Plurality Vote (I think). This is also the method for electing constituency MPs. My view is that the 'post' in FPTP is 325 MPs - the first party to achieve that forms the government. Though typically of this place, others had forcefully different views!
  • Options
    maxhmaxh Posts: 1,011
    stodge said:

    "Labour's coming dictatorship" LOL. It's like some of these people have never lost an election.

    I don't remember such concerns when the Conservatives were heading toward a landslide in 1983 or 1987 or 2019.

    All Rishi Sunak has left is fear - all his other "ideas" have run into the sand.

    He can now choose to lose gracefully as Sir
    John Major or disgracefully. As to what
    happens to the Conservative Party after July
    5th, so much will depend on the breadth and depth of the defeat.
    That nice chap Jacob in the Viking helmet who toured the US Capitol on Jan 6th is available on day rates plus a very reasonable retainer, I've heard.

  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,545
    Heathener said:

    "Labour's coming dictatorship" LOL. It's like some of these people have never lost an election.

    Telegraph writers are in the main having a collective nervous breakdown over the coming loss.

    Britain is finished etc etc...
    They are

    I am opposed to PR not because 'I have played by the rules and won by the rules' but because PR gives disproportionate power to minority and fringe interest groups. The tail can all too easily end up wagging the dog. And in today’s world that’s the last thing we need.

    I’d rather have FPTP which favours centrism. It's the lesser of evils.

    Anyway, it’s moot. The Right can bleat all they like but to be taken credibly they should have campaigned for it just after their last victory, not when they are about to lose.

    They have no one to blame but themselves. Not the system. Not Labour. Themselves.
    PR gives proportional power to the minority and fringe interest groups.

    One of the pernicious fictions about PR is you have to work with a party on the same side of the centre line and not reach across it.

    In a hypothetical future result where neither the Conservatives nor Labour can form a coalition of the right or left without involving people they simply can't stand, they can always work with each other.

    In truth there's already considerable overlap with the two parties and there are plenty of outgoing MPs who could exist quite comfortably in either of them. There's no reason to privilege the right of the Tories or the left of Labour. It's just as legitimate for the left of the Tories and the right of Labour to reach out to each other as it is to bring Reform or the Greens into the mix.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,877
    Sean_F said:

    We Think

    Labour 43%, Con 22%, Reform 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 7%.

    So much for the Reform crossover wankathon....
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,250
    MikeL said:

    Sean_F said:

    We Think

    Labour 43%, Con 22%, Reform 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 7%.

    Changes from one week ago:

    Lab =
    Con +2
    Ref -1
    LD -3
    Green +1

    Changes seem quite different to majority of other polls.

    Though arguably largely MOE.
    There have been a couple with low Lib Dem scores. A bit of a mystery as to why. Perhaps just the manifesto and Ed roadshow effects wearing off.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,545

    MikeL said:

    Sean_F said:

    We Think

    Labour 43%, Con 22%, Reform 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 7%.

    Changes from one week ago:

    Lab =
    Con +2
    Ref -1
    LD -3
    Green +1

    Changes seem quite different to majority of other polls.

    Though arguably largely MOE.
    Not so much for the LibDems.

    Maybe Davey's fannying around is wooing the media, but leaving the voters thinking "prat...."
    Maybe the attention was good for their VI but now the football's really gotten going, it's not working. Such was the sage prediction of at least one person on here a few weeks ago, no names mentioned.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,545

    Sean_F said:

    We Think

    Labour 43%, Con 22%, Reform 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 7%.

    So much for the Reform crossover wankathon....
    The Nigaculation is over
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,020
    This is good news, given the potency of methane as a greenhouse gas, and the large number of ill-managed US wells, with fragmented ownership.
    About the most cost effective short term spending to address climate change that there is.

    DOE and EPA Announce $850 Million to Reduce Methane Pollution from the Oil and Gas Sector
    https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-and-epa-announce-850-million-reduce-methane-pollution-oil-and-gas-sector
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,062
    edited June 21

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    ALSO, didn’t the Conservatives do away with PR for the London mayorality?

    They dumped the Supplementary Vote system and moved it to FPTP.

    Was Tim Stanley complaining then?

    You can't have PR for the election of a single individual.
    That doesn’t address my point and it’s also not true. The previous supplementary vote system was a form of PR. It allowed voters to express their own proportional preferences.

    If you PR advocates want to be taken seriously then you can’t be purists. But that’s part of the problem: you don’t agree about one perfect alternative.

    Hence why we booted it out 13 years ago and voted to retain FPTP.
    Sigh.



    Personally I am happy to vote in favour of any incremental improvement to the voting system, which is why I voted for AV, despite it not being a proportional system, or as good as my preferred system.

    What was your point again?
    Leaving aside the completely unnecessary Ad Hominem (literally do not know what the heck that was about) …

    1. The Conservatives who are suddenly moaning about this unfair voting system did not complain in 2022 when they deliberately fiddled with the London mayorality voting to First Past the Post - something less fair than the existing supplementary voting system.

    2. We were given the chance to move to AV and we crushingly rejected it. Just 13 years ago. In a vote which actually named FPTP. We rejected AV in favour of retaining FPTP

    3. My more general point, apart from the utter cant from tories about this, is that PR can give undue power to minority fringe groups leading to the tail wagging the dog.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,020
    edited June 21
    maxh said:

    stodge said:

    "Labour's coming dictatorship" LOL. It's like some of these people have never lost an election.

    I don't remember such concerns when the Conservatives were heading toward a landslide in 1983 or 1987 or 2019.

    All Rishi Sunak has left is fear - all his other "ideas" have run into the sand.

    He can now choose to lose gracefully as Sir
    John Major or disgracefully. As to what
    happens to the Conservative Party after July
    5th, so much will depend on the breadth and depth of the defeat.
    That nice chap Jacob in the Viking helmet who toured the US Capitol on Jan 6th is available on day rates plus a very reasonable retainer, I've heard.

    Isn't he banged up ?
    Or do you mean Rees Mogg... ????
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,468
    DRS corrupt as fuck.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,955
    Absolute bullshit decision in the cricket. That was 100% a fair catch. Grrrrrrr.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,517
    edited June 21

    Sean_F said:

    We Think

    Labour 43%, Con 22%, Reform 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 7%.

    So much for the Reform crossover wankathon....
    So no Lord Andrew Tate for Culture Secretary then?
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 695
    Blindingly obvious thing is reform HoL which needs doing anyway and play around with alternative electoral systems for its replacement if we are having one. If that's a success change the commons to match.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,541
    TimS said:

    MikeL said:

    Sean_F said:

    We Think

    Labour 43%, Con 22%, Reform 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 7%.

    Changes from one week ago:

    Lab =
    Con +2
    Ref -1
    LD -3
    Green +1

    Changes seem quite different to majority of other polls.

    Though arguably largely MOE.
    There have been a couple with low Lib Dem scores. A bit of a mystery as to why. Perhaps just the manifesto and Ed roadshow effects wearing off.
    Possibly because We Think the last I saw weren’t using the ballot question so less tactical voting shows up .

    I can’t see them polling less than 10% in the GE .
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,517

    Everyone saying it's impossible for FPTP to be changed, how did other countries manage it?

    From what I can see there's a mixed record for it being changed. India and US* haven't, Australia and Ireland have, for example. So it's clearly doable.

    *I don't consider US a good example of how to/how not to change anything cause of their fetishisation of their constitution

    Ireland have used STV since the beginning. When you have a war of independence it tends to encourage a bit of utopian thinking when writing a new constitution. It's a bit harder to make the change to an established system.
    STV in Ireland was imposed by the BRITISH administration, as means of attempting to blunt the domination of most Irish constituencies by Sinn Fein under FPTP.

    However, the Irish in the Free State then the Republic have retained STV ever since; up North the Unionists ditched it ASAP for FPTP, in order to lock in their dominance, along with gerrymandering & other sharp practice(s).
    I don't think that's right? The last pre-independence general election in Ireland, in 1918, was on FPTP.

    But the UK had already been using STV for parliamentary elections, in some university seats (one of which was Dublin).
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,370
    Farooq said:

    Sean_F said:

    We Think

    Labour 43%, Con 22%, Reform 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 7%.

    So much for the Reform crossover wankathon....
    The Nigaculation is over
    That conclusion is a bit premature, we should await the climax when the fat lady has finished singing.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,370

    Sean_F said:

    We Think

    Labour 43%, Con 22%, Reform 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 7%.

    So much for the Reform crossover wankathon....
    So no Lord Andrew Tate for Culture Secretary then?
    Minister for women and inequalities under PM Nige surely?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,020
    Farooq said:

    Heathener said:

    "Labour's coming dictatorship" LOL. It's like some of these people have never lost an election.

    Telegraph writers are in the main having a collective nervous breakdown over the coming loss.

    Britain is finished etc etc...
    They are

    I am opposed to PR not because 'I have played by the rules and won by the rules' but because PR gives disproportionate power to minority and fringe interest groups. The tail can all too easily end up wagging the dog. And in today’s world that’s the last thing we need.

    I’d rather have FPTP which favours centrism. It's the lesser of evils.

    Anyway, it’s moot. The Right can bleat all they like but to be taken credibly they should have campaigned for it just after their last victory, not when they are about to lose.

    They have no one to blame but themselves. Not the system. Not Labour. Themselves.
    PR gives proportional power to the minority and fringe interest groups.

    One of the pernicious fictions about PR is you have to work with a party on the same side of the centre line and not reach across it.

    In a hypothetical future result where neither the Conservatives nor Labour can form a coalition of the right or left without involving people they simply can't stand, they can always work with each other.

    In truth there's already considerable overlap with the two parties and there are plenty of outgoing MPs who could exist quite comfortably in either of them. There's no reason to privilege the right of the Tories or the left of Labour. It's just as legitimate for the left of the Tories and the right of Labour to reach out to each other as it is to bring Reform or the Greens into the mix.
    There is also - as you can see even in some of this week's US Supreme Court decisions - usually some agreement that cuts across the political spectrum on particular policies.

    Such legislative cooperation is far more likely with a PR system, than under the dead hands of two party hegemony.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,234

    DRS corrupt as fuck.

    Looked like it was working fine on Lewis’s car down the straight.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,462
    edited June 21
    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    stodge said:

    "Labour's coming dictatorship" LOL. It's like some of these people have never lost an election.

    I don't remember such concerns when the Conservatives were heading toward a landslide in 1983 or 1987 or 2019.

    All Rishi Sunak has left is fear - all his other "ideas" have run into the sand.

    He can now choose to lose gracefully as Sir
    John Major or disgracefully. As to what
    happens to the Conservative Party after July
    5th, so much will depend on the breadth and depth of the defeat.
    That nice chap Jacob in the Viking helmet who toured the US Capitol on Jan 6th is available on day rates plus a very reasonable retainer, I've heard.

    Isn't he banged up ?
    He was released after 27 months and tentatively ran for Congress

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/qanon-shaman-stormed-capitol-jan-6-files-paperwork-run-congress-rcna124858
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,098
    edited June 21
    We are now broadly seeing two polling camps.

    One suggests low 20s CON, low 40s Lab with clear third.

    Others suggest CON/REF evenly split
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,468
    The Electoral Commission has published donations for the second week of the election campaign - with Labour bringing in over £4million and the Tories just short of £300k...

    Labour's biggest donations in the period came from former supermarket boss Lord David Sainsbury (£2.5million) and Autoglass's Gary Lubner (£900k).


    https://x.com/ashcowburn/status/1804165572202012957
  • Options
    maxhmaxh Posts: 1,011

    Blindingly obvious thing is reform HoL which needs doing anyway and play around with alternative electoral systems for its replacement if we are having one. If that's a success change the commons to match.

    I like the idea of replacing the HoL with a (series of) citizens assemblies on important stuff. That way you get representation from all parts of the political spectrum but their ideas have to stand up to the scrutiny of real people, not filtered through favourable media outlets.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,020

    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    stodge said:

    "Labour's coming dictatorship" LOL. It's like some of these people have never lost an election.

    I don't remember such concerns when the Conservatives were heading toward a landslide in 1983 or 1987 or 2019.

    All Rishi Sunak has left is fear - all his other "ideas" have run into the sand.

    He can now choose to lose gracefully as Sir
    John Major or disgracefully. As to what
    happens to the Conservative Party after July
    5th, so much will depend on the breadth and depth of the defeat.
    That nice chap Jacob in the Viking helmet who toured the US Capitol on Jan 6th is available on day rates plus a very reasonable retainer, I've heard.

    Isn't he banged up ?
    He was released after 27 months and is tentatively ran for Congress

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/qanon-shaman-stormed-capitol-jan-6-files-paperwork-run-congress-rcna124858
    Wow, you're actually tracking this stuff. :wink:
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,468
    Surprised the Saffers didn't review that catch.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,545
    Here is a short article on the legality of using inside information in gambling, by Kate Bedford, Professor of Law and Political Economy at the University of Birmingham:
    https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/news/2024/general-election-2024-cheating-and-the-misuse-of-inside-information-in-gambling-what-the-law-says
  • Options
    maxhmaxh Posts: 1,011
    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Sean_F said:

    We Think

    Labour 43%, Con 22%, Reform 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 7%.

    So much for the Reform crossover wankathon....
    The Nigaculation is over
    That conclusion is a bit premature, we should await the climax when the fat lady has finished singing.
    I doubt Nigel has the technique to make her sing, tbh.
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 695

    Pulpstar said:

    The idea AV would produce a significantly different outcome is for the birds I think.

    I think we’d get a slightly different result under multi member STV which would be my first choice.
    We'd definitely get a different result. Instead of it being announced on Friday morning, we'd have to wait until the middle of the following week.
    Imagine the difference electronic voting would make.

    22:01 Result
    22:10 End of speeches
    22:20 Everyone to the pub
    06:00 Talking heads still talking
    2025-35 numerous Returning Officers jailed for electoral fraud, 2040-45 inquiry as to who in the electoral commission knew what when about backdoors into the Fujitsu voting software.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,517

    The Electoral Commission has published donations for the second week of the election campaign - with Labour bringing in over £4million and the Tories just short of £300k...

    Labour's biggest donations in the period came from former supermarket boss Lord David Sainsbury (£2.5million) and Autoglass's Gary Lubner (£900k).


    https://x.com/ashcowburn/status/1804165572202012957

    Frank Hester needs to pull his finger out!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,468
    Sandpit said:

    DRS corrupt as fuck.

    Looked like it was working fine on Lewis’s car down the straight.
    You're not watching the cricket between England and South Africa?
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,841
    Heathener said:

    3. My more general point, apart from the utter cant from tories about this, is that PR can give undue power to minority fringe groups leading to the tail wagging the dog.

    Do you have examples of where this has happened?

    I've been travelling to Ireland quite often since meeting my wife in 2007, and have talked to her about Irish politics, and it isn't a description that fits the experience of small parties in Ireland.

    To give just one example, the Green Party are the third party in a three-party coalition government at present in Ireland. So weak is their influence over policy that they couldn't even manage to achieve a ban on turf-cutting, probably the most damaging activity to the environment that it is possible to imagine.

    Consequently they will likely be obliterated at the next general election. Just as they were the last time they were in government.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,535
    edited June 21

    We are now broadly seeing two polling camps.

    One suggests low 20s CON, low 40s Lab with clear third.

    Others suggest CON/REF evenly split

    Edit: think your edit got me there.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,468
    Oh dear, Johnny Mercer is fucked.

    Fred Thomas’ Certificate of Valediction - signed by the Commanding Officer, Special Forces Support Group



    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1804162095123980459
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,841

    Everyone saying it's impossible for FPTP to be changed, how did other countries manage it?

    From what I can see there's a mixed record for it being changed. India and US* haven't, Australia and Ireland have, for example. So it's clearly doable.

    *I don't consider US a good example of how to/how not to change anything cause of their fetishisation of their constitution

    Ireland have used STV since the beginning. When you have a war of independence it tends to encourage a bit of utopian thinking when writing a new constitution. It's a bit harder to make the change to an established system.
    STV in Ireland was imposed by the BRITISH administration, as means of attempting to blunt the domination of most Irish constituencies by Sinn Fein under FPTP.

    However, the Irish in the Free State then the Republic have retained STV ever since; up North the Unionists ditched it ASAP for FPTP, in order to lock in their dominance, along with gerrymandering & other sharp practice(s).
    I don't think that's right? The last pre-independence general election in Ireland, in 1918, was on FPTP.

    But the UK had already been using STV for parliamentary elections, in some university seats (one of which was Dublin).
    The second Dail was elected during the war of independence. It was the election to the Southern Ireland House of Commons, created by the Government of Ireland Act, and used STV as supported by the British government. But SF stood unopposed in the vast majority of constituencies, so the voting system was moot.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 12,228

    Everyone saying it's impossible for FPTP to be changed, how did other countries manage it?

    From what I can see there's a mixed record for it being changed. India and US* haven't, Australia and Ireland have, for example. So it's clearly doable.

    *I don't consider US a good example of how to/how not to change anything cause of their fetishisation of their constitution

    Ireland have used STV since the beginning. When you have a war of independence it tends to encourage a bit of utopian thinking when writing a new constitution. It's a bit harder to make the change to an established system.
    STV in Ireland was imposed by the BRITISH administration, as means of attempting to blunt the domination of most Irish constituencies by Sinn Fein under FPTP.

    However, the Irish in the Free State then the Republic have retained STV ever since; up North the Unionists ditched it ASAP for FPTP, in order to lock in their dominance, along with gerrymandering & other sharp practice(s).
    I don't think that's right? The last pre-independence general election in Ireland, in 1918, was on FPTP.

    But the UK had already been using STV for parliamentary elections, in some university seats (one of which was Dublin).
    My understanding on this is the same as SSI's.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,847
    Nigelb said:

    Ukrainian app gives me an alert 30 min before power goes out, which allows me to quick cook dinner before it’s too late

    Having a hard time imagining other cities in the world having this level of digital sophistication during a wartime energy crisis

    https://x.com/timkmak/status/1804153156282015968

    One reason that wars speed up technological progress is the “say no to everything” attitude gets steamrollered.

    See in COVID where a determined and multi-pronged attempt was made to stop the data dashboard being created. And note how, after COVID, the team that did the dashboard had a few honours chucked at them.

    And then were rapidly disbanded.

    Because ministers (and others) were asking about applying the same principles of open data to other departments.

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,643

    Heathener said:

    3. My more general point, apart from the utter cant from tories about this, is that PR can give undue power to minority fringe groups leading to the tail wagging the dog.

    Do you have examples of where this has happened?

    I've been travelling to Ireland quite often since meeting my wife in 2007, and have talked to her about Irish politics, and it isn't a description that fits the experience of small parties in Ireland.

    To give just one example, the Green Party are the third party in a three-party coalition government at present in Ireland. So weak is their influence over policy that they couldn't even manage to achieve a ban on turf-cutting, probably the most damaging activity to the environment that it is possible to imagine.

    Consequently they will likely be obliterated at the next general election. Just as they were the last time they were in government.
    Looks like the most back breaking activity imaginable too.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,545
    edited June 21
    Deleted because I'm replying to something that's been edited
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,517
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    stodge said:

    "Labour's coming dictatorship" LOL. It's like some of these people have never lost an election.

    I don't remember such concerns when the Conservatives were heading toward a landslide in 1983 or 1987 or 2019.

    All Rishi Sunak has left is fear - all his other "ideas" have run into the sand.

    He can now choose to lose gracefully as Sir
    John Major or disgracefully. As to what
    happens to the Conservative Party after July
    5th, so much will depend on the breadth and depth of the defeat.
    That nice chap Jacob in the Viking helmet who toured the US Capitol on Jan 6th is available on day rates plus a very reasonable retainer, I've heard.

    Isn't he banged up ?
    He was released after 27 months and is tentatively ran for Congress

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/qanon-shaman-stormed-capitol-jan-6-files-paperwork-run-congress-rcna124858
    Wow, you're actually tracking this stuff. :wink:
    I'm surprised you are surprised!
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,237
    Heathener said:

    3. My more general point, apart from the utter cant from tories about this, is that PR can give undue power to minority fringe groups leading to the tail wagging the dog.

    Which is exactly what we have now.

    These minority fringe groups are within the "mainstream" parties. The European Research Group. The Covid Recovery Group. The New Conservatives. Momentum. Countless more.

    Under FPTP, every party is an internal coalition of fringe groups. The tail still wags the dog. But as a voter, you don't have a chance to influence that.

    PR means less influence for the extreme fringes, not more. You can't have a One Nation-LibDem-Cooperative coalition under FPTP.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,291

    Everyone saying it's impossible for FPTP to be changed, how did other countries manage it?

    From what I can see there's a mixed record for it being changed. India and US* haven't, Australia and Ireland have, for example. So it's clearly doable.

    *I don't consider US a good example of how to/how not to change anything cause of their fetishisation of their constitution

    Ireland have used STV since the beginning. When you have a war of independence it tends to encourage a bit of utopian thinking when writing a new constitution. It's a bit harder to make the change to an established system.
    STV in Ireland was imposed by the BRITISH administration, as means of attempting to blunt the domination of most Irish constituencies by Sinn Fein under FPTP.

    However, the Irish in the Free State then the Republic have retained STV ever since; up North the Unionists ditched it ASAP for FPTP, in order to lock in their dominance, along with gerrymandering & other sharp practice(s).
    I don't think that's right? The last pre-independence general election in Ireland, in 1918, was on FPTP.

    But the UK had already been using STV for parliamentary elections, in some university seats (one of which was Dublin).
    Anglo Irish Treaty was signed December 1921, took effect December 1922.

    But BEFORE that,

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1921_Irish_elections

    In November 1920, the British Parliament passed the Government of Ireland Act 1920. This partitioned Ireland into two distinct polities, each with their own Home Rule Parliament: Northern Ireland and Southern Ireland. Both parliaments would be composed of a directly-elected House of Commons and an indirectly-elected Senate, with both lower chambers being elected by the Single Transferable Vote system of proportional representation.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,535
    edited June 21
    Farooq said:

    We are now broadly seeing two polling camps.

    One suggests low 20s CON, low 40s Lab with clear third.

    Others suggest CON/REF evenly split

    Oh yeah? Which camp do the latest Techne, R&W, and BMG fall into?
    R&W shows an even split: their last 5 polls show an MoE difference (if any) between the 2nd and 3rd.
    Yeah, yeah, I might have misread numbertwelve's original post, in which case apols to them or they might have edited it.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,913
    maxh said:

    Blindingly obvious thing is reform HoL which needs doing anyway and play around with alternative electoral systems for its replacement if we are having one. If that's a success change the commons to match.

    I like the idea of replacing the HoL with a (series of) citizens assemblies on important stuff. That way you get representation from all parts of the political spectrum but their ideas have to stand up to the scrutiny of real people, not filtered through favourable media outlets.
    I don't like Citizens' Assemblies.

    IMO they give far too much weight to the 'appointed experts' advising.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,847
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    stodge said:

    "Labour's coming dictatorship" LOL. It's like some of these people have never lost an election.

    I don't remember such concerns when the Conservatives were heading toward a landslide in 1983 or 1987 or 2019.

    All Rishi Sunak has left is fear - all his other "ideas" have run into the sand.

    He can now choose to lose gracefully as Sir
    John Major or disgracefully. As to what
    happens to the Conservative Party after July
    5th, so much will depend on the breadth and depth of the defeat.
    That nice chap Jacob in the Viking helmet who toured the US Capitol on Jan 6th is available on day rates plus a very reasonable retainer, I've heard.

    Isn't he banged up ?
    He was released after 27 months and is tentatively ran for Congress

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/qanon-shaman-stormed-capitol-jan-6-files-paperwork-run-congress-rcna124858
    Wow, you're actually tracking this stuff. :wink:
    Maybe, just maybe, using Google.

    First result for “shamen storming Congress now”… is that link.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,468
    What a catch by Jos Buttler.
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    Oh dear, Johnny Mercer is fucked.

    Fred Thomas’ Certificate of Valediction - signed by the Commanding Officer, Special Forces Support Group



    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1804162095123980459

    Finally, a good post from you. Only half tripe now.

    Why would Johnny do this? He's a prat.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,517
    maxh said:

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Sean_F said:

    We Think

    Labour 43%, Con 22%, Reform 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 7%.

    So much for the Reform crossover wankathon....
    The Nigaculation is over
    That conclusion is a bit premature, we should await the climax when the fat lady has finished singing.
    I doubt Nigel has the technique to make her sing, tbh.
    Does a girl need more than a pint of Tetley's and a Woodbine?

    The alternative allusion you imply is too vile to consider (not the singer, but Farage).
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,234
    edited June 21

    Nigelb said:

    Ukrainian app gives me an alert 30 min before power goes out, which allows me to quick cook dinner before it’s too late

    Having a hard time imagining other cities in the world having this level of digital sophistication during a wartime energy crisis

    https://x.com/timkmak/status/1804153156282015968

    One reason that wars speed up technological progress is the “say no to everything” attitude gets steamrollered.

    See in COVID where a determined and multi-pronged attempt was made to stop the data dashboard being created. And note how, after COVID, the team that did the dashboard had a few honours chucked at them.

    And then were rapidly disbanded.

    Because ministers (and others) were asking about applying the same principles of open data to other departments.

    During a war, as with a pandemic, everyone stops caring about procurement processes, the location of the jobs and the length of the projects. They just want all the kit they can get their hands on, want it yesterday, and have their ears open to anyone willing to be innovative or unconventional.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,545

    Farooq said:

    We are now broadly seeing two polling camps.

    One suggests low 20s CON, low 40s Lab with clear third.

    Others suggest CON/REF evenly split

    Oh yeah? Which camp do the latest Techne, R&W, and BMG fall into?
    R&W shows an even split: their last 5 polls show an MoE difference (if any) between the 2nd and 3rd.
    Yeah, yeah, I might have misread numbertwelve's original post, in which case apols to them, or he might have edited it.
    Yeah, I've retracted my post because you did too. And yet it all lives on in these replies :lol:
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    CookieCookie Posts: 12,228
    Farooq said:

    Sean_F said:

    We Think

    Labour 43%, Con 22%, Reform 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 7%.

    So much for the Reform crossover wankathon....
    The Nigaculation is over
    Well done. Faragasm works just as well, though yours is more original.

    That said, I don't think you're right. They're only down by 1 in this poll. Reform more than anyone else seem susceptible to methodology changes.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,407
    edited June 21

    Oh dear, Johnny Mercer is fucked.

    Fred Thomas’ Certificate of Valediction - signed by the Commanding Officer, Special Forces Support Group



    https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1804162095123980459

    Wasn't Mercer complaining about claims he was a combatant? He could have had a glorious seven years behind a desk.
This discussion has been closed.