That's one vote for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam.
My vote is 100% influenced by wanting to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary.
Oh aye, like that’s gonna happen.
Didn’t you previously say you were minded not to vote Tory? Are you Big G-like in your flip floppery?!
I’m only joshing, I don’t blame you, or him, for returning to the fold. You both seem to have longstanding, heartfelt, tribal feelings for the party. It’s not something I understand personally, but it must be difficult to see an organisation you have such an affinity, a connection, with in such deep, deep shit.
I’ll never forgive the Tories for what they’ve done to this country for the last 14 years, for the damage austerity has brought to my part of the Red Wall, the closed libraries and sports centres, the crumbling public realm, the hard-pressed public services, the slow, wilful destruction of the NHS. And I’ll never forgive them for stripping me of my European citizenship and Freedom of Movement, for their weakness in standing up to their nutters.
I want them to get a good fucking hammering. I want their handling of the last 14 years to be clearly, unequivocally, decisively rejected by the public. I want them to be chastened, to have their time in the wilderness, to renew. But I don’t want them destroyed. Because as bad as they are - and I hate the party with a passion even though I have plenty of Tory friends -Farage is worse.
The number of people I know who are voting Tory is quite extraordinary. I think it's one of those habits that are hard to break. If it wasn't for PB and my belief in polls I would be putting my house on at least a hung parliament
Roger, you're a wealthy retired tampon ad executive, educated at a minor public school, who mainly lives in Villefranche-sur-Mer
Your social circle is probably quite unusual, and may indeed be limited to 24/7 private nurses
I have a wide circle of friends and family, home and abroad, rich and poor, who are a real mix, arty and geeky, you name it. In the past they've been everything from SWP to BNP, but mainly Labour and Tory, with a couple of Libs, Nits and UKIPs
Not a single one is definitely voting Tory. One was edging that way but the Reform Manifesto has tempted her to Farage
I can therefore believe these stories of total wipe-out (sorry @Sandpit). Unless there is a shy Tory effect at work, but I don't believe it, people aren't embarrassed about voting Tory or not voting Tory, they just despise them, quietly or loudly. A shy Reform vote is more likely, because Farage
There is a shy Tory effect at work, the one that's going to ensure they get 20% of the vote. 😊
Boris Johnson has announced the release date for his “unrestrained” memoir in which he will give his account of his time in Downing Street. The former prime minister’s book, called Unleashed, will be published by William Collins on Oct 10 this year, with Harper releasing it in the United States five days later.
He is never writing that Shakespeare book is he....
Rough pro guess, he was offered £100,000 for the Shakespeare book, max; he will make £5-10 million from his memoir, worldwide, so no, I imagine the Shakespeare book is very much on the backburner
With that sort of money sloshing about, he may well have just paid back the advance. I can't imagine the publisher who has been waiting for what 10 years? for this Shakespeare book cares now about the actual book.
I can't imagine anyone who cares about Shakespeare does, either.
Yeah the idea that Boris Johnson is gonna have amazing new insights into Shakespeare, such that I might buy a book of them, is quite fanciful, indeed fatuous and ludicrous
However I bet Boris Johnson has plenty of amazing new insights into the life and thoughts of Boris Johnson, and he was also the winner of the Brexit ref and British PM during some of the most turbulent years in all UK/global history, from Covid to Ukraine. So I probably WILL buy his memoir, as will many people worldwide - and he can write pretty well
He will likely earn that £5m advance, unlike many political memoirs
The swingback phenomenon is long standing and well documented. It seems particularly to benefit Conservatives, but we also saw some evidence of it when Labour were in power.
The idea is that ahead of an election people flirt with change and sending a message to the government. They’re fed up. But when the actual election day looms they consider their options and opt for the devil they know. So you get swingback to the incumbent.
This year lots of people are flirting with change. In fact the vast majority of the electorate, both in E&W and Scotland. But they are not just looking at Labour and the Lib Dems, the “established opposition parties”. They’re also looking at Reform and Green.
Over the next two weeks will people start to focus their minds and end up voting more conservatively? Yes, I think they will. It usually happens. But will the beneficiaries in England and Wales be the Tories? Perhaps not exclusively. Starmer and Labour are so much part of the furniture, and what they offer is so non-alarming and dull, that I wonder if they could be the main beneficiaries. A safe option, while still representing change.
Swingback, but to the main opposition party.
Just a thought.
Not a ridiculous idea, but on the whole I disagree.
Labour are still an unknown quantity. The small c conservative reflex will be to stick with the incumbent government.
And this is definitely a CHANGE election, but one where Labour aren't offering much in the way of change. That's why Reform are catching so much attention.
Labour are stuck between two stools. I think their campaign is in real trouble. They really need to come out and rally an anti-Farage vote, but they also need to offer a positive and optimistic vision for people to vote for. But it's too late for Starmer to pull that out of the hat. He doesn't do improv, I don't think he does optimism. It was seen as too risky when they drew up the campaign plan.
I don't know - I think I agree with @TimS - it seems clear that even many typically Tory voters are exasperated with the party and how it has governed, and I am worried about the polling day cold feet of many typically Labour voters who may be flirting with Greens (from my pov) worrying a "Vote for Greens is a Vote for Tories" and will get squeezed. I think there is a good argument being made here that Labour are so clearly going to get a majority and the Tories are in such trouble that in this election you don't have to necessarily vote tactically to kick out a Tory government - but with those numbers around how many voters want the Tories to get 0 seats, and how I'm sure some constituents with certain MPs have added desires to kick them out in a cross party manner, I do wonder if Labour could even exceed the polls. But we'll have to see!
A vote for Green in the vast majority of seats is a wasted vote, pure and simple. So it's right that those votes are squeezed. There are exceptions – but not very many.
It isn't wasted for the Greens - it's good short money. And every vote for Labour beyond the single vote needed to get more votes than the second party is also a wasted vote. The argument is "Labour are going to win anyway - so vote your heart" is fair, in my mind.
I've been chilling and thinking. I was always more drawn historically to the Tories as I was brought up in a very Labour suspicious environment, both my parents and grandparents on mums side were fully engaged with Thatcher and blamed Labour for Britain's decline in the 70s (Dads parents were and some members of the family that side still are very left wing/Trade Unionist Labour). I still very much dislike Labour, but what is the Tory party actually for? They don't care about me, they don't care about defence, they don't care about low tax for workers, just for business owners and corporates. They don't care about getting benefits down in a fair and kind way to those of us unfortunate enough to rely on them. They don't care about immigration concerns, they don't care about decency, they don't care about public service, they don't care about shit in our rivers, they don't care about affordable housing, renters, tenants, they don't care about ANYTHING. They are an infestation. They are the aristocracy of the interwar period, unforgivably self centred, arrogant, power hungry, distant. They are the worst of us. Fuck them. Seriously. Fuck them all. Let them perish and then let's see.
It's hard to work out what they stand for, other than putting their fingers in places where fingers should not be put.
I've been chilling and thinking. I was always more drawn historically to the Tories as I was brought up in a very Labour suspicious environment, both my parents and grandparents on mums side were fully engaged with Thatcher and blamed Labour for Britain's decline in the 70s (Dads parents were and some members of the family that side still are very left wing/Trade Unionist Labour). I still very much dislike Labour, but what is the Tory party actually for? They don't care about me, they don't care about defence, they don't care about low tax for workers, just for business owners and corporates. They don't care about getting benefits down in a fair and kind way to those of us unfortunate enough to rely on them. They don't care about immigration concerns, they don't care about decency, they don't care about public service, they don't care about shit in our rivers, they don't care about affordable housing, renters, tenants, they don't care about ANYTHING. They are an infestation. They are the aristocracy of the interwar period, unforgivably self centred, arrogant, power hungry, distant. They are the worst of us. Fuck them. Seriously. Fuck them all. Let them perish and then let's see.
More emotive than I would have put it, but you are right. Time they are put out to pasture to discover what they are actually about.
I'd go harder. Time they were put out to pasture and we decide what we are about. They are yesterday's mistake, we have no need of them anymore.
Yes, that is a fair emphasis. Perhaps their time has past and, in spite of what people like Leon may think/hope, we are becoming a more left of centre "woke" nation ?
I think the silent majority need to roar, then we will know.
Astonishing news that the CCHQ director of campaigns has now taken a leave of absence while his wife - a Con candidate - is being investigated for placing a bet on the date of the election.
It encapsulates both the incompetence and corruption at the heart of this sorry government (or indeed their contempt for democracy). This is the sort of thing that can cut through as well. They deserve the kicking that is hopefully coming to them.
I may be in the minority, but is it not possible that those who had a tip about the election genuinely thought there was nothing wrong in using said tip for a wager? I know ignorance of the law (is this is legal thing, or terms and conditions with the betting firm?) is not a defence.
There also seems to be a grey area. I placed bets on the day that things were leaking out, but before the official announcement. Was that illegal?
I've been chilling and thinking. I was always more drawn historically to the Tories as I was brought up in a very Labour suspicious environment, both my parents and grandparents on mums side were fully engaged with Thatcher and blamed Labour for Britain's decline in the 70s (Dads parents were and some members of the family that side still are very left wing/Trade Unionist Labour). I still very much dislike Labour, but what is the Tory party actually for? They don't care about me, they don't care about defence, they don't care about low tax for workers, just for business owners and corporates. They don't care about getting benefits down in a fair and kind way to those of us unfortunate enough to rely on them. They don't care about immigration concerns, they don't care about decency, they don't care about public service, they don't care about shit in our rivers, they don't care about affordable housing, renters, tenants, they don't care about ANYTHING. They are an infestation. They are the aristocracy of the interwar period, unforgivably self centred, arrogant, power hungry, distant. They are the worst of us. Fuck them. Seriously. Fuck them all. Let them perish and then let's see.
It's hard to work out what they stand for, other than putting their fingers in places where fingers should not be put.
Like the 1930s aristocracy, plundering the nation and living high on the hog before the ceiling came down. That's what they are and stand for. Greed. Unadulterated greed, both financial and personal.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
2nd bit of feedback from Wantage and Didcot ( @Andy_Cooke and @NickPalmer ). Again another member of the campaign I am involved in who are non political but very interested in who gets elected for obvious reasons. The current Tory MP has been a champion for our cause.
"I have had campaign leaflets from Labour and the SDP, plus several leaflets from the Liberal Democrats.
The Liberal Democrats are making quite in effort in Wantage, and seem to regard this as one of their target seats."
Thanks, kjh - always useful to get the feel of whether or not we're cutting through.
There are countless LibDem leaflets, which mostly are generic (not referring to the candidate) - on a given day, residents may receive 2 different ones: they are slightly overdoing it IMO. There are fairly widespread Labour leaflets and some SDP leaflets, but none so far from the Tories, who seem to have given up. LibDem posters were up first and are moderately common, though less so than in previous seats where I've been aqctive. Labour posters are catching up. I've yet to see a single Tory poster. Constituency polling varies between a smalle Labour lead to a large LibDem lead; I've yet to see a Tory lead predicted by any of them. Labour is working hard and in with a reasonable shot - but there are masses of tactical anti-Tory voters still making up their minds.
The YouGov MRP, which has a local sample as its base unlike those that only work top down from modelling, puts the LibDems in pole position, with Labour way back tussling with Reform for third and fourth place. The recent PCC elections saw LibDems outpoll Labour in both the council areas covered by that seat. Tactical voters should by now have a clear picture of what they need to do, to defeat the Tory.
These clowns are so stupid they did not get an unknown 3rd party to put the bets on , explains why the country is circling the drain.
They shouldn't have to, malc. This is yet another example of a thing being punished for no good reason. It is legal to gamble.
In fixed-odds bookmaking, the bookmaker knows that there may be people on the other side of the bet with insider information. When people start piling on implausible candidates (eg "The Next Doctor Who Is Jodie Whittaker" in 2016 or "...Is Peter Capaldi" in 2013) the proper response is for the bookmakers to take it on the chin and suspend the market.
PB prides itself on being for free speech (unless it's speech it doesn't like) and against cancellation (except for the people it wants cancelled). We should be loudly decrying this violation of the gambler's rights and interfering with their gambling, not nodding and winking at it.
I never thought I'd be acting for Conservative Party personnel, but it's a topsy-turvy world these days.
It is of course legal to gamble. But is it legal to place a bet on an outcome you already know, by virtue of your position, to be certain ? Or are you at that point defrauding the bookmaker ?
Aren't all bets about information asymmetry? If you have more and better information than me, you win. If I have more and better information than you, I win.
Many years ago, I was involved in a campaign which was the defence of a theoretically marginal seat, where bookies were offering odds a little worse than evens on a Lib Dem hold. But I'd been on the doorstep and spoken to plenty of others who had, and we were cruising home to a huge win. I made a lot of money on it.
I don't quite see at what point you think it becomes cheating. If a bookie is worried people know more about it than them, don't open the book. Or do open the book based on a calculation that, while some people have more information than you, most don't and you can always say "£100 max bet".
It clearly wasn't wise for people to place bets, but I'm struggling with this one to say it was any more than unwise.
You didn't originate this LD hold and it was up to the voters. You didn't know for sure. Not so the Tory instance.
Edit: or so one presumes. But in fairness, it is possible that Mr Sunak didn't tell *anyone* about the announcement till he made it.
I've been chilling and thinking. I was always more drawn historically to the Tories as I was brought up in a very Labour suspicious environment, both my parents and grandparents on mums side were fully engaged with Thatcher and blamed Labour for Britain's decline in the 70s (Dads parents were and some members of the family that side still are very left wing/Trade Unionist Labour). I still very much dislike Labour, but what is the Tory party actually for? They don't care about me, they don't care about defence, they don't care about low tax for workers, just for business owners and corporates. They don't care about getting benefits down in a fair and kind way to those of us unfortunate enough to rely on them. They don't care about immigration concerns, they don't care about decency, they don't care about public service, they don't care about shit in our rivers, they don't care about affordable housing, renters, tenants, they don't care about ANYTHING. They are an infestation. They are the aristocracy of the interwar period, unforgivably self centred, arrogant, power hungry, distant. They are the worst of us. Fuck them. Seriously. Fuck them all. Let them perish and then let's see.
It's hard to work out what they stand for, other than putting their fingers in places where fingers should not be put.
Like the 1930s aristocracy, plundering the nation and living high on the hog before the ceiling came down. That's what they are and stand for. Greed. Unadulterated greed, both financial and personal.
Harsh but sadly fair. With sneering contempt for the lower orders (including their own Red Wall MPs).
A message from Witham constituency. In spite of facing a substantial Tory majority (24k in 2019 and 18k in 2017, when the Labour candidate was a local man) the Labour candidate has now sent out three leaflets against one for Priti Patel. Nothing from anyone else yet.
Was a choice between the Lib Dem who continually posts incorrect gibberish in the comments section of the local rag or Labour - Tories ruled out for many reasons one of which is the dubious history of the law firm of our current MP.
Hopefully next time I will have a choice of candidates
My local LibDem councillor is good at his job, and is a respected expert in a highly technical field. His twitter feed, on the other hand, is the most insane FBPE nonsense I've ever seen - not politically but quality-wise - retweeting genuine conspiracy theories, obviously spoof accounts and so on. Whether he knows it's trash, but thinks it's good for campaigning, or whether he doesn't know is the eternal question.
On topic, Tewkesbury is one of the seats which seems clearly to be in the range between the Tories winning 50 seats, and winning 100.
The issue for the Lib Dems is that the local teams are fighting hard in Cheltenham, then South Cotswolds, then North Cotswolds. Then it looks like a tossup between Tewkesbury and Thornbury & Yate. I don't see any signs that the Lib Dems are going kamikaze into the stretch targets and abandoning the others higher up, which means that the likes of Tewkesbury will have to rely on the local strength in the seat, without outside help.
So it looks more to me like the Lib Dems get a good second place this time, and if the Tories don't sort themselves out in opposition, and a couple of the others locally are won, it then becomes a top tier target next time.
North Dorset in much the same position - there are better prospects all around, so a win there would need to rely on the national campaign and a freak vote split.
Last time the LibDems got carried away during the campaign, spending money and resources on all sorts of long shot seats and then missing many of their top targets; this time they are determined to stay focused and not repeat that mistake, but may finish by winning their top targets by miles and having a swathe of near misses across the home countries.
Nevertheless they are right to want to make sure of landing their primary strategic objective of recovering third party status in the HoC.
That's one vote for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam.
My vote is 100% influenced by wanting to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary.
Oh aye, like that’s gonna happen.
Didn’t you previously say you were minded not to vote Tory? Are you Big G-like in your flip floppery?!
I’m only joshing, I don’t blame you, or him, for returning to the fold. You both seem to have longstanding, heartfelt, tribal feelings for the party. It’s not something I understand personally, but it must be difficult to see an organisation you have such an affinity, a connection, with in such deep, deep shit.
I’ll never forgive the Tories for what they’ve done to this country for the last 14 years, for the damage austerity has brought to my part of the Red Wall, the closed libraries and sports centres, the crumbling public realm, the hard-pressed public services, the slow, wilful destruction of the NHS. And I’ll never forgive them for stripping me of my European citizenship and Freedom of Movement, for their weakness in standing up to their nutters.
I want them to get a good fucking hammering. I want their handling of the last 14 years to be clearly, unequivocally, decisively rejected by the public. I want them to be chastened, to have their time in the wilderness, to renew. But I don’t want them destroyed. Because as bad as they are - and I hate the party with a passion even though I have plenty of Tory friends -Farage is worse.
The number of people I know who are voting Tory is quite extraordinary. I think it's one of those habits that are hard to break. If it wasn't for PB and my belief in polls I would be putting my house on at least a hung parliament
Roger, you're a wealthy retired tampon ad executive, educated at a minor public school, who mainly lives in Villefranche-sur-Mer
Your social circle is probably quite unusual, and may indeed be limited to 24/7 private nurses
I have a wide circle of friends and family, home and abroad, rich and poor, who are a real mix, arty and geeky, you name it. In the past they've been everything from SWP to BNP, but mainly Labour and Tory, with a couple of Libs, Nits and UKIPs
Not a single one is definitely voting Tory. One was edging that way but the Reform Manifesto has tempted her to Farage
I can therefore believe these stories of total wipe-out (sorry @Sandpit). Unless there is a shy Tory effect at work, but I don't believe it, people aren't embarrassed about voting Tory or not voting Tory, they just despise them, quietly or loudly. A shy Reform vote is more likely, because Farage
What about a deal. You stop calling me 'a tampon ad exec' and I'll stop referring to you (accurately) as the winner of the Henry Miller award for the worst sex book ever written.
The winning passage, I assume, was a rather crass and cringe depiction of a breathless and sweaty menage a un.
I believe Roger is confusing me with exPBer @SeanT, and, as always, has got all the details completely wrong: the award was the Bad Sex in Fiction prize, not "Henry Miller", and it is for a passage of absurd sex writing, not a whole book
The passage is quite quite something. The excerpts you find online do not remotely do it justice. After the lagershed I might put it on here, but it really has to be after the lagershed
The one that ends in "aiwa"?
I might actually have it on my bookshelf still somewhere. I picked it up in the 2000s on the basis of the notoriety of that passage, long before I ever heard of PB.
The fact I can still remember the outline of the plot two decades later suggests it's a decent read - I read a lot and don't remember most books. A bit amis-y in places but it was the style of the time...
That's one vote for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam.
My vote is 100% influenced by wanting to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary.
Oh aye, like that’s gonna happen.
Didn’t you previously say you were minded not to vote Tory? Are you Big G-like in your flip floppery?!
I’m only joshing, I don’t blame you, or him, for returning to the fold. You both seem to have longstanding, heartfelt, tribal feelings for the party. It’s not something I understand personally, but it must be difficult to see an organisation you have such an affinity, a connection, with in such deep, deep shit.
I’ll never forgive the Tories for what they’ve done to this country for the last 14 years, for the damage austerity has brought to my part of the Red Wall, the closed libraries and sports centres, the crumbling public realm, the hard-pressed public services, the slow, wilful destruction of the NHS. And I’ll never forgive them for stripping me of my European citizenship and Freedom of Movement, for their weakness in standing up to their nutters.
I want them to get a good fucking hammering. I want their handling of the last 14 years to be clearly, unequivocally, decisively rejected by the public. I want them to be chastened, to have their time in the wilderness, to renew. But I don’t want them destroyed. Because as bad as they are - and I hate the party with a passion even though I have plenty of Tory friends -Farage is worse.
The number of people I know who are voting Tory is quite extraordinary. I think it's one of those habits that are hard to break. If it wasn't for PB and my belief in polls I would be putting my house on at least a hung parliament
Roger, you're a wealthy retired tampon ad executive, educated at a minor public school, who mainly lives in Villefranche-sur-Mer
Your social circle is probably quite unusual, and may indeed be limited to 24/7 private nurses
I have a wide circle of friends and family, home and abroad, rich and poor, who are a real mix, arty and geeky, you name it. In the past they've been everything from SWP to BNP, but mainly Labour and Tory, with a couple of Libs, Nits and UKIPs
Not a single one is definitely voting Tory. One was edging that way but the Reform Manifesto has tempted her to Farage
I can therefore believe these stories of total wipe-out (sorry @Sandpit). Unless there is a shy Tory effect at work, but I don't believe it, people aren't embarrassed about voting Tory or not voting Tory, they just despise them, quietly or loudly. A shy Reform vote is more likely, because Farage
There is a shy Tory effect at work, the one that's going to ensure they get 20% of the vote. 😊
These clowns are so stupid they did not get an unknown 3rd party to put the bets on , explains why the country is circling the drain.
They shouldn't have to, malc. This is yet another example of a thing being punished for no good reason. It is legal to gamble.
In fixed-odds bookmaking, the bookmaker knows that there may be people on the other side of the bet with insider information. When people start piling on implausible candidates (eg "The Next Doctor Who Is Jodie Whittaker" in 2016 or "...Is Peter Capaldi" in 2013) the proper response is for the bookmakers to take it on the chin and suspend the market.
PB prides itself on being for free speech (unless it's speech it doesn't like) and against cancellation (except for the people it wants cancelled). We should be loudly decrying this violation of the gambler's rights and interfering with their gambling, not nodding and winking at it.
I never thought I'd be acting for Conservative Party personnel, but it's a topsy-turvy world these days.
It is of course legal to gamble. But is it legal to place a bet on an outcome you already know, by virtue of your position, to be certain ? Or are you at that point defrauding the bookmaker ?
Aren't all bets about information asymmetry? If you have more and better information than me, you win. If I have more and better information than you, I win.
Many years ago, I was involved in a campaign which was the defence of a theoretically marginal seat, where bookies were offering odds a little worse than evens on a Lib Dem hold. But I'd been on the doorstep and spoken to plenty of others who had, and we were cruising home to a huge win. I made a lot of money on it.
I don't quite see at what point you think it becomes cheating. If a bookie is worried people know more about it than them, don't open the book. Or do open the book based on a calculation that, while some people have more information than you, most don't and you can always say "£100 max bet".
It clearly wasn't wise for people to place bets, but I'm struggling with this one to say it was any more than unwise.
You didn't originate this LD hold and it was up to the voters. You didn't know for sure. Not so the Tory instance.
Edit: or so one presumes. But in fairness, it is possible that Mr Sunak didn't tell *anyone* about the announcement till he made it.
Quite. They may have known, eg, that Akshata has had enough and was pressing him to go early, and observed him looking less and less resolute. That's sort of inside info, but then so is the stuff in the thread header.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Boris Johnson has announced the release date for his “unrestrained” memoir in which he will give his account of his time in Downing Street. The former prime minister’s book, called Unleashed, will be published by William Collins on Oct 10 this year, with Harper releasing it in the United States five days later.
He is never writing that Shakespeare book is he....
Rough pro guess, he was offered £100,000 for the Shakespeare book, max; he will make £5-10 million from his memoir, worldwide, so no, I imagine the Shakespeare book is very much on the backburner
With that sort of money sloshing about, he may well have just paid back the advance. I can't imagine the publisher who has been waiting for what 10 years? for this Shakespeare book cares now about the actual book.
I can't imagine anyone who cares about Shakespeare does, either.
Yeah the idea that Boris Johnson is gonna have amazing new insights into Shakespeare, such that I might buy a book of them, is quite fanciful, indeed fatuous and ludicrous
However I bet Boris Johnson has plenty of amazing new insights into the life and thoughts of Boris Johnson, and he was also the winner of the Brexit ref and British PM during some of the most turbulent years in all UK/global history, from Covid to Ukraine. So I probably WILL buy his memoir, as will many people worldwide - and he can write pretty well
He will likely earn that £5m advance, unlike many political memoirs
Gave that a like. Though I have little interest in buying his memoir (actually, none), I appreciate that quite a few might.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
That's one vote for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam.
My vote is 100% influenced by wanting to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary.
Oh aye, like that’s gonna happen.
Didn’t you previously say you were minded not to vote Tory? Are you Big G-like in your flip floppery?!
I’m only joshing, I don’t blame you, or him, for returning to the fold. You both seem to have longstanding, heartfelt, tribal feelings for the party. It’s not something I understand personally, but it must be difficult to see an organisation you have such an affinity, a connection, with in such deep, deep shit.
I’ll never forgive the Tories for what they’ve done to this country for the last 14 years, for the damage austerity has brought to my part of the Red Wall, the closed libraries and sports centres, the crumbling public realm, the hard-pressed public services, the slow, wilful destruction of the NHS. And I’ll never forgive them for stripping me of my European citizenship and Freedom of Movement, for their weakness in standing up to their nutters.
I want them to get a good fucking hammering. I want their handling of the last 14 years to be clearly, unequivocally, decisively rejected by the public. I want them to be chastened, to have their time in the wilderness, to renew. But I don’t want them destroyed. Because as bad as they are - and I hate the party with a passion even though I have plenty of Tory friends -Farage is worse.
The number of people I know who are voting Tory is quite extraordinary. I think it's one of those habits that are hard to break. If it wasn't for PB and my belief in polls I would be putting my house on at least a hung parliament
Roger, you're a wealthy retired tampon ad executive, educated at a minor public school, who mainly lives in Villefranche-sur-Mer
Your social circle is probably quite unusual, and may indeed be limited to 24/7 private nurses
I have a wide circle of friends and family, home and abroad, rich and poor, who are a real mix, arty and geeky, you name it. In the past they've been everything from SWP to BNP, but mainly Labour and Tory, with a couple of Libs, Nits and UKIPs
Not a single one is definitely voting Tory. One was edging that way but the Reform Manifesto has tempted her to Farage
I can therefore believe these stories of total wipe-out (sorry @Sandpit). Unless there is a shy Tory effect at work, but I don't believe it, people aren't embarrassed about voting Tory or not voting Tory, they just despise them, quietly or loudly. A shy Reform vote is more likely, because Farage
What about a deal. You stop calling me 'a tampon ad exec' and I'll stop referring to you (accurately) as the winner of the Henry Miller award for the worst sex book ever written.
The winning passage, I assume, was a rather crass and cringe depiction of a breathless and sweaty menage a un.
I believe Roger is confusing me with exPBer @SeanT, and, as always, has got all the details completely wrong: the award was the Bad Sex in Fiction prize, not "Henry Miller", and it is for a passage of absurd sex writing, not a whole book
The passage is quite quite something. The excerpts you find online do not remotely do it justice. After the lagershed I might put it on here, but it really has to be after the lagershed
The one that ends in "aiwa"?
I might actually have it on my bookshelf still somewhere. I picked it up in the 2000s on the basis of the notoriety of that passage, long before I ever heard of PB.
The fact I can still remember the outline of the plot two decades later suggests it's a decent read - I read a lot and don't remember most books. A bit amis-y in places but it was the style of the time...
Amis fils presumably?
Top tip: The Zone Of Interest is I think his best. Much more complex than the film and no faux cockneys in it.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
He's another Brexit wanker traitor who emigrates to avoid the unflushed turd he created.
These clowns are so stupid they did not get an unknown 3rd party to put the bets on , explains why the country is circling the drain.
They shouldn't have to, malc. This is yet another example of a thing being punished for no good reason. It is legal to gamble.
In fixed-odds bookmaking, the bookmaker knows that there may be people on the other side of the bet with insider information. When people start piling on implausible candidates (eg "The Next Doctor Who Is Jodie Whittaker" in 2016 or "...Is Peter Capaldi" in 2013) the proper response is for the bookmakers to take it on the chin and suspend the market.
PB prides itself on being for free speech (unless it's speech it doesn't like) and against cancellation (except for the people it wants cancelled). We should be loudly decrying this violation of the gambler's rights and interfering with their gambling, not nodding and winking at it.
I never thought I'd be acting for Conservative Party personnel, but it's a topsy-turvy world these days.
It is of course legal to gamble. But is it legal to place a bet on an outcome you already know, by virtue of your position, to be certain ? Or are you at that point defrauding the bookmaker ?
Aren't all bets about information asymmetry? If you have more and better information than me, you win. If I have more and better information than you, I win.
Many years ago, I was involved in a campaign which was the defence of a theoretically marginal seat, where bookies were offering odds a little worse than evens on a Lib Dem hold. But I'd been on the doorstep and spoken to plenty of others who had, and we were cruising home to a huge win. I made a lot of money on it.
I don't quite see at what point you think it becomes cheating...
The point at which it's a certainty.
Outwitting bookies on the likely odds (even if you're outwitting them massively) of an event whose outcome is yet to be decided, and getting them to take a bet on an event you already know the outcome of, are two very different things.
These clowns are so stupid they did not get an unknown 3rd party to put the bets on , explains why the country is circling the drain.
They shouldn't have to, malc. This is yet another example of a thing being punished for no good reason. It is legal to gamble.
In fixed-odds bookmaking, the bookmaker knows that there may be people on the other side of the bet with insider information. When people start piling on implausible candidates (eg "The Next Doctor Who Is Jodie Whittaker" in 2016 or "...Is Peter Capaldi" in 2013) the proper response is for the bookmakers to take it on the chin and suspend the market.
PB prides itself on being for free speech (unless it's speech it doesn't like) and against cancellation (except for the people it wants cancelled). We should be loudly decrying this violation of the gambler's rights and interfering with their gambling, not nodding and winking at it.
I never thought I'd be acting for Conservative Party personnel, but it's a topsy-turvy world these days.
It is of course legal to gamble. But is it legal to place a bet on an outcome you already know, by virtue of your position, to be certain ? Or are you at that point defrauding the bookmaker ?
Aren't all bets about information asymmetry? If you have more and better information than me, you win. If I have more and better information than you, I win.
Many years ago, I was involved in a campaign which was the defence of a theoretically marginal seat, where bookies were offering odds a little worse than evens on a Lib Dem hold. But I'd been on the doorstep and spoken to plenty of others who had, and we were cruising home to a huge win. I made a lot of money on it.
I don't quite see at what point you think it becomes cheating. If a bookie is worried people know more about it than them, don't open the book. Or do open the book based on a calculation that, while some people have more information than you, most don't and you can always say "£100 max bet".
It clearly wasn't wise for people to place bets, but I'm struggling with this one to say it was any more than unwise.
You didn't originate this LD hold and it was up to the voters. You didn't know for sure. Not so the Tory instance.
Edit: or so one presumes. But in fairness, it is possible that Mr Sunak didn't tell *anyone* about the announcement till he made it.
Quite. They may have known, eg, that Akshata has had enough and was pressing him to go early, and observed him looking less and less resolute. That's sort of inside info, but then so is the stuff in the thread header.
But even then - politically - a dreadful look. And there we are. (I wonder who else will come out of the woodwork on this, too.)
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Do you think Reform will surprise on the upside?
Because I would hate for us to lose our touch.
You could try modding the site so it is slightly less hateful to anyone remotely minded to vote Reform, or even inclined to say "actually Farage has a point" etc etc
This is not for my protection, I don't give a fuck
But we need PB to be a broad church so we can make infiormed bets or wise predictions. It really isn't, in this instance
A message from Witham constituency. In spite of facing a substantial Tory majority (24k in 2019 and 18k in 2017, when the Labour candidate was a local man) the Labour candidate has now sent out three leaflets against one for Priti Patel. Nothing from anyone else yet.
You think lots of leaflets reminding voters their candidate is Priti Patel would be a great strategy?
I've been chilling and thinking. I was always more drawn historically to the Tories as I was brought up in a very Labour suspicious environment, both my parents and grandparents on mums side were fully engaged with Thatcher and blamed Labour for Britain's decline in the 70s (Dads parents were and some members of the family that side still are very left wing/Trade Unionist Labour). I still very much dislike Labour, but what is the Tory party actually for? They don't care about me, they don't care about defence, they don't care about low tax for workers, just for business owners and corporates. They don't care about getting benefits down in a fair and kind way to those of us unfortunate enough to rely on them. They don't care about immigration concerns, they don't care about decency, they don't care about public service, they don't care about shit in our rivers, they don't care about affordable housing, renters, tenants, they don't care about ANYTHING. They are an infestation. They are the aristocracy of the interwar period, unforgivably self centred, arrogant, power hungry, distant. They are the worst of us. Fuck them. Seriously. Fuck them all. Let them perish and then let's see.
It's hard to work out what they stand for, other than putting their fingers in places where fingers should not be put.
Like the 1930s aristocracy, plundering the nation and living high on the hog before the ceiling came down. That's what they are and stand for. Greed. Unadulterated greed, both financial and personal.
Sounds awful and aristocrat like behaviour, but did the 1930s stand out particularly?
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
He's another Brexit wanker traitor who emigrates to avoid the unflushed turd he created.
Do you think calling me a "Brexit wanker/traitor" benefits the site?
I've been chilling and thinking. I was always more drawn historically to the Tories as I was brought up in a very Labour suspicious environment, both my parents and grandparents on mums side were fully engaged with Thatcher and blamed Labour for Britain's decline in the 70s (Dads parents were and some members of the family that side still are very left wing/Trade Unionist Labour). I still very much dislike Labour, but what is the Tory party actually for? They don't care about me, they don't care about defence, they don't care about low tax for workers, just for business owners and corporates. They don't care about getting benefits down in a fair and kind way to those of us unfortunate enough to rely on them. They don't care about immigration concerns, they don't care about decency, they don't care about public service, they don't care about shit in our rivers, they don't care about affordable housing, renters, tenants, they don't care about ANYTHING. They are an infestation. They are the aristocracy of the interwar period, unforgivably self centred, arrogant, power hungry, distant. They are the worst of us. Fuck them. Seriously. Fuck them all. Let them perish and then let's see.
It's hard to work out what they stand for, other than putting their fingers in places where fingers should not be put.
Like the 1930s aristocracy, plundering the nation and living high on the hog before the ceiling came down. That's what they are and stand for. Greed. Unadulterated greed, both financial and personal.
Sounds awful and aristocrat like behaviour, but did the 1930s stand out particularly?
The interwar period was when the aristocracy reached its most disgusting imo, yes
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Do you think Reform will surprise on the upside?
Because I would hate for us to lose our touch.
You could try modding the site so it is slightly less hateful to anyone remotely minded to vote Reform, or even inclined to say "actually Farage has a point" etc etc
This is not for my protection, I don't give a fuck
But we need PB to be a broad church so we can make infiormed bets or wise predictions. It really isn't, in this instance
You support/boost a party of UK hating appeasers/traitors.
If you cannot stand the heat then get out of the kitchen.
On topic, Tewkesbury is one of the seats which seems clearly to be in the range between the Tories winning 50 seats, and winning 100.
The issue for the Lib Dems is that the local teams are fighting hard in Cheltenham, then South Cotswolds, then North Cotswolds. Then it looks like a tossup between Tewkesbury and Thornbury & Yate. I don't see any signs that the Lib Dems are going kamikaze into the stretch targets and abandoning the others higher up, which means that the likes of Tewkesbury will have to rely on the local strength in the seat, without outside help.
So it looks more to me like the Lib Dems get a good second place this time, and if the Tories don't sort themselves out in opposition, and a couple of the others locally are won, it then becomes a top tier target next time.
North Dorset in much the same position - there are better prospects all around, so a win there would need to rely on the national campaign and a freak vote split.
Last time the LibDems got carried away during the campaign, spending money and resources on all sorts of long shot seats and then missing many of their top targets; this time they are determined to stay focused and not repeat that mistake, but may finish by winning their top targets by miles and having a swathe of near misses across the home countries.
Nevertheless they are right to want to make sure of landing their primary strategic objective of recovering third party status in the HoC.
I believe in Gloucestershire the Lib Dem priorities are in order Cheltenham, South Cotswolds (part in Wiltshire), Tewkesbury, and then the others.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
He's another Brexit wanker traitor who emigrates to avoid the unflushed turd he created.
Do you think calling me a "Brexit wanker/traitor" benefits the site?
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Do you think Reform will surprise on the upside?
Because I would hate for us to lose our touch.
You could try modding the site so it is slightly less hateful to anyone remotely minded to vote Reform, or even inclined to say "actually Farage has a point" etc etc
This is not for my protection, I don't give a fuck
But we need PB to be a broad church so we can make infiormed bets or wise predictions. It really isn't, in this instance
You support/boost a party of UK hating appeasers/traitors.
If you cannot stand the heat then get out of the kitchen.
I am going to kindly presume you are still aching from your operation, and draw a polite veil over your contumely
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
It is quite lonely and frightening if there is very rapid demographic change locally and you find yourself surrounded by people with a very different culture.
Less so for me as being catholic I often have as strong or stronger cultural connections with the newcomers. (our local church in a still very white area is probably the most racially diverse community in the area with a big chunk of the population from South Asia and Central and Southern Africa. Racial differences are irrelevant as the Catholicism unites).
(I think growing up in another such community insulated me from the racial (and class snobbery) nastiness that was around in the 70s and 80s)
But if you are a C of E mainstream elderly English person it must be very daunting. And horrible to be smeared as racist if you dare to complain.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
So she will bugger off to another country where she’ll be an immigrant and yet moans about too many immigrants here . It was like those vox pops in Spain during the EU ref who moaned about too many immigrants in the UK and didn’t compute that they were immigrants in Spain .
On the topic of safe(ish) Tory seats, can I present South West Wiltshire? Current incumbent Andrew Murrison (a decent enough chap). Labour is the closest challenger but for some reason have selected a Londoner who doesn't live anywhere near Wiltshire to be their candidate. And she is also a person of colour.
I'm not implying that the constituency is full of white power racists, far from it, but it certainly is a much less diverse part of the country than almost anywhere else.
DYOR but I think Murrison will be ok. (Perhaps kle4 might have an opinion as its his constituency too?)
Murrisons literature is leaning hard on how he lives locally, so he spots a weakness there.
I find it hard to think Labour could win with very little local strength, but the LDs do not seem to be making any effort (going to Melksham and Devizes, and Chippenham), so perhaps the national polls will mean Labour could win in a Tory wipeout situation.
That's one vote for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam.
My vote is 100% influenced by wanting to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary.
Oh aye, like that’s gonna happen.
Didn’t you previously say you were minded not to vote Tory? Are you Big G-like in your flip floppery?!
I’m only joshing, I don’t blame you, or him, for returning to the fold. You both seem to have longstanding, heartfelt, tribal feelings for the party. It’s not something I understand personally, but it must be difficult to see an organisation you have such an affinity, a connection, with in such deep, deep shit.
I’ll never forgive the Tories for what they’ve done to this country for the last 14 years, for the damage austerity has brought to my part of the Red Wall, the closed libraries and sports centres, the crumbling public realm, the hard-pressed public services, the slow, wilful destruction of the NHS. And I’ll never forgive them for stripping me of my European citizenship and Freedom of Movement, for their weakness in standing up to their nutters.
I want them to get a good fucking hammering. I want their handling of the last 14 years to be clearly, unequivocally, decisively rejected by the public. I want them to be chastened, to have their time in the wilderness, to renew. But I don’t want them destroyed. Because as bad as they are - and I hate the party with a passion even though I have plenty of Tory friends -Farage is worse.
The number of people I know who are voting Tory is quite extraordinary. I think it's one of those habits that are hard to break. If it wasn't for PB and my belief in polls I would be putting my house on at least a hung parliament
Roger, you're a wealthy retired tampon ad executive, educated at a minor public school, who mainly lives in Villefranche-sur-Mer
Your social circle is probably quite unusual, and may indeed be limited to 24/7 private nurses
I have a wide circle of friends and family, home and abroad, rich and poor, who are a real mix, arty and geeky, you name it. In the past they've been everything from SWP to BNP, but mainly Labour and Tory, with a couple of Libs, Nits and UKIPs
Not a single one is definitely voting Tory. One was edging that way but the Reform Manifesto has tempted her to Farage
I can therefore believe these stories of total wipe-out (sorry @Sandpit). Unless there is a shy Tory effect at work, but I don't believe it, people aren't embarrassed about voting Tory or not voting Tory, they just despise them, quietly or loudly. A shy Reform vote is more likely, because Farage
What about a deal. You stop calling me 'a tampon ad exec' and I'll stop referring to you (accurately) as the winner of the Henry Miller award for the worst sex book ever written.
The winning passage, I assume, was a rather crass and cringe depiction of a breathless and sweaty menage a un.
I believe Roger is confusing me with exPBer @SeanT, and, as always, has got all the details completely wrong: the award was the Bad Sex in Fiction prize, not "Henry Miller", and it is for a passage of absurd sex writing, not a whole book
The passage is quite quite something. The excerpts you find online do not remotely do it justice. After the lagershed I might put it on here, but it really has to be after the lagershed
The one that ends in "aiwa"?
I might actually have it on my bookshelf still somewhere. I picked it up in the 2000s on the basis of the notoriety of that passage, long before I ever heard of PB.
The fact I can still remember the outline of the plot two decades later suggests it's a decent read - I read a lot and don't remember most books. A bit amis-y in places but it was the style of the time...
Amis fils presumably?
Top tip: The Zone Of Interest is I think his best. Much more complex than the film and no faux cockneys in it.
Amis (M.) went off the boil around the time of The Information and never really got it back. I did read the zone of interest and can't remember a bloody thing about it, save for the protagonist is called Paul Doll. If I can remember the details of a book years later chances are it's good. If I draw a blank, it's a miss. I barely remember anything from an Amis book published after 1995.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
He's another Brexit wanker traitor who emigrates to avoid the unflushed turd he created.
Do you think calling me a "Brexit wanker/traitor" benefits the site?
Yes, as I am only following your style.
Ah, the sincerest form of flattery. I don't blame you, my style is quite the thing
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Do you think Reform will surprise on the upside?
Because I would hate for us to lose our touch.
When I look at Reform I can see them winning Clacton, Ashfield is possible because that's got some interesting local issues then after that I need to look for seats where Labour will do badly and with Reform getting a lot of votes.
My default seat for that is Redcar (as it does have a the last lot disappointed us (again) so vote for someone else tendency) but Labour hits that target at the moment.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
Look at the US if you want to see what happens when immigrants swamp the indigenous inhabitants. The latter are confined to reservations and treated as very definitely second-class citizens.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Do you think Reform will surprise on the upside?
Because I would hate for us to lose our touch.
When I look at Reform I can see them winning Clacton, Ashfield is possible because that's got some interesting local issues then after that I need to look for seats where Labour will do badly and with Reform getting a lot of votes.
My default seat for that is Redcar (as it does have a the last lot disappointed us (again) so vote for someone else tendency) but Labour hits that target at the moment.
What I think will be interesting is the number of (clear) second places Reform gets.
Come the 2028/29 GE then in a lot of areas 'Only Reform can beat Labour here' becomes the default message and then Farage might end up winning a lot of seats for the first time.
"Others won big by backing themselves against the odds. The now-disgraced Liberal MP Clement Freud — who was investigated by the Met in 2016 for histroic child sexual abuse claims — was once notorious for being the shrewdest punter in Westminster when he was the candidate in the Isle of Ely by-election in 1973. Having begun as the 33/1 outsider, he managed to place £1,000 on himself — winning the equivalent of £340,000 in today’s money when he became the MP."
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
He's another Brexit wanker traitor who emigrates to avoid the unflushed turd he created.
Do you think calling me a "Brexit wanker/traitor" benefits the site?
Yes, as I am only following your style.
Ah, the sincerest form of flattery. I don't blame you, my style is quite the thing
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Do you think Reform will surprise on the upside?
Because I would hate for us to lose our touch.
When I look at Reform I can see them winning Clacton, Ashfield is possible because that's got some interesting local issues then after that I need to look for seats where Labour will do badly and with Reform getting a lot of votes.
My default seat for that is Redcar (as it does have a the last lot disappointed us (again) so vote for someone else tendency) but Labour hits that target at the moment.
I’m beginning to wonder about my seat. The imposed Labour candidate is poor and the primary campaign has decided to champion the Green. If Tory popularity continues to fall it isn’t impossible that Reform could come through the middle.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Do you think Reform will surprise on the upside?
Because I would hate for us to lose our touch.
You could try modding the site so it is slightly less hateful to anyone remotely minded to vote Reform, or even inclined to say "actually Farage has a point" etc etc
This is not for my protection, I don't give a fuck
But we need PB to be a broad church so we can make infiormed bets or wise predictions. It really isn't, in this instance
The absence of Reform voters on PB is telling in itself. It suggests that they are not particularly politically engaged, or are likely not to be traditional Tories (HYUFD/BigG/DavidL etc), do not have access to the internet, do not place bets or some combination of these.
You can extract quite a lot of that if you base your betting on polling sample error, swing versus turnout, demographics and so on.
Alternatively, the hostility you mention could lead to something hitherto unheard of - shy Reform voters. PB might be different but in my experience these types of people are more than happy to advertise their views. DYOR.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
He's another Brexit wanker traitor who emigrates to avoid the unflushed turd he created.
Do you think calling me a "Brexit wanker/traitor" benefits the site?
Yes, as I am only following your style.
Ah, the sincerest form of flattery. I don't blame you, my style is quite the thing
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Do you think Reform will surprise on the upside?
Because I would hate for us to lose our touch.
When I look at Reform I can see them winning Clacton, Ashfield is possible because that's got some interesting local issues then after that I need to look for seats where Labour will do badly and with Reform getting a lot of votes.
My default seat for that is Redcar (as it does have a the last lot disappointed us (again) so vote for someone else tendency) but Labour hits that target at the moment.
What I think will be interesting is the number of (clear) second places Reform gets.
Come the 2028/29 GE then in a lot of areas 'Only Reform can beat Labour here' becomes the default message and then Farage might end up winning a lot of seats for the first time.
I don’t sense he’s remotely interested in a long five- to ten-year long haul.
“A sudden surge in activity on the betting markets sealed [Morgan McSweeney, Sir Keir Starmer’s campaign chief] conviction that a July poll would be called imminently.”
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
So she will bugger off to another country where she’ll be an immigrant and yet moans about too many immigrants here . It was like those vox pops in Spain during the EU ref who moaned about too many immigrants in the UK and didn’t compute that they were immigrants in Spain .
I would rather not live in a majority Muslim area, because it would entirely change the cultural feel of the neighborhood: all the pubs shut (no custom), the schools change entirely, the streets and shops are transformed. This happens, I've seen it happen in parts of Birmingham and, to a lesser extent, London
This is not racism, it is merely preferring your own native culture: a very human thing. So if this woman now emigrates to a more traditonally Christian country, albeit foreign, she is making a rational choice
And I have travelled widely in Muslim countries, many of them, and had marvelous times and met some of the most marvelous people. I just don't want to live in a Muslim country/locale
Swich it around, if a load of white Christians swiftly took over half a town in Pakistan and opened pubs and closed all the mosques and opened churches then the Pakistani locals would probably feel quite aggreived and upset. And that would not be racism, either. Just human nature: their sense of upset would be justified
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Do you think Reform will surprise on the upside?
Because I would hate for us to lose our touch.
When I look at Reform I can see them winning Clacton, Ashfield is possible because that's got some interesting local issues then after that I need to look for seats where Labour will do badly and with Reform getting a lot of votes.
My default seat for that is Redcar (as it does have a the last lot disappointed us (again) so vote for someone else tendency) but Labour hits that target at the moment.
What I think will be interesting is the number of (clear) second places Reform gets.
Come the 2028/29 GE then in a lot of areas 'Only Reform can beat Labour here' becomes the default message and then Farage might end up winning a lot of seats for the first time.
I don’t sense he’s remotely interested in a long five- to ten-year long haul.
Neither do I but he can disappear for a few years then come back in 2028/29 and start hammering that message.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
He's another Brexit wanker traitor who emigrates to avoid the unflushed turd he created.
Do you think calling me a "Brexit wanker/traitor" benefits the site?
Yes, as I am only following your style.
Ah, the sincerest form of flattery. I don't blame you, my style is quite the thing
It really isn't.
Well, my style pays, and indeed it pays extremely well, at times
People don't emigrate "to avoid foreigners" as some would put it.
They emigrate because when they see the country they live in is being flooded with low wage immigration they see no hope of a better quality of life for themselves or children or even great-grandchildren. Saying such people "hate foreigners" is a purposeful misunderstanding if why they want control of our borders and restricted high quality migration into the country they live in.
With the Romanian and US decisions on Patriot, the F16s by summer story and now this, it seems there's been something of an uptick in western determination to actually prevail in Ukraine.
“A sudden surge in activity on the betting markets sealed [Morgan McSweeney, Sir Keir Starmer’s campaign chief] conviction that a July poll would be called imminently.”
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Do you think Reform will surprise on the upside?
Because I would hate for us to lose our touch.
You could try modding the site so it is slightly less hateful to anyone remotely minded to vote Reform, or even inclined to say "actually Farage has a point" etc etc
This is not for my protection, I don't give a fuck
But we need PB to be a broad church so we can make infiormed bets or wise predictions. It really isn't, in this instance
The absence of Reform voters on PB is telling in itself. It suggests that they are not particularly politically engaged, or are likely not to be traditional Tories (HYUFD/BigG/DavidL etc), do not have access to the internet, do not place bets or some combination of these.
You can extract quite a lot of that if you base your betting on polling sample error, swing versus turnout, demographics and so on.
Alternatively, the hostility you mention could lead to something hitherto unheard of - shy Reform voters. PB might be different but in my experience these types of people are more than happy to advertise their views. DYOR.
That or PB is largely made up of middle managers and accountants from the status obsessed middle classes who consider a vote for the Faragist intifada completely non-u due to status anxiety.
Whereas one of the richest poshos I know has shamelessly broken for reform on the basis he thinks the tories have f***Ed the country.
I suspect it's all a bit like status conscious people shopping at asda while saying they only ever shop in waitrose.
A lot of those types will break for reform, but won't admit it. Until enough people in their social circle make it acceptable to talk about.
That's one vote for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam.
My vote is 100% influenced by wanting to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary.
Oh aye, like that’s gonna happen.
Didn’t you previously say you were minded not to vote Tory? Are you Big G-like in your flip floppery?!
I’m only joshing, I don’t blame you, or him, for returning to the fold. You both seem to have longstanding, heartfelt, tribal feelings for the party. It’s not something I understand personally, but it must be difficult to see an organisation you have such an affinity, a connection, with in such deep, deep shit.
I’ll never forgive the Tories for what they’ve done to this country for the last 14 years, for the damage austerity has brought to my part of the Red Wall, the closed libraries and sports centres, the crumbling public realm, the hard-pressed public services, the slow, wilful destruction of the NHS. And I’ll never forgive them for stripping me of my European citizenship and Freedom of Movement, for their weakness in standing up to their nutters.
I want them to get a good fucking hammering. I want their handling of the last 14 years to be clearly, unequivocally, decisively rejected by the public. I want them to be chastened, to have their time in the wilderness, to renew. But I don’t want them destroyed. Because as bad as they are - and I hate the party with a passion even though I have plenty of Tory friends -Farage is worse.
The number of people I know who are voting Tory is quite extraordinary. I think it's one of those habits that are hard to break. If it wasn't for PB and my belief in polls I would be putting my house on at least a hung parliament
Roger, you're a wealthy retired tampon ad executive, educated at a minor public school, who mainly lives in Villefranche-sur-Mer
Your social circle is probably quite unusual, and may indeed be limited to 24/7 private nurses
I have a wide circle of friends and family, home and abroad, rich and poor, who are a real mix, arty and geeky, you name it. In the past they've been everything from SWP to BNP, but mainly Labour and Tory, with a couple of Libs, Nits and UKIPs
Not a single one is definitely voting Tory. One was edging that way but the Reform Manifesto has tempted her to Farage
I can therefore believe these stories of total wipe-out (sorry @Sandpit). Unless there is a shy Tory effect at work, but I don't believe it, people aren't embarrassed about voting Tory or not voting Tory, they just despise them, quietly or loudly. A shy Reform vote is more likely, because Farage
What about a deal. You stop calling me 'a tampon ad exec' and I'll stop referring to you (accurately) as the winner of the Henry Miller award for the worst sex book ever written.
The winning passage, I assume, was a rather crass and cringe depiction of a breathless and sweaty menage a un.
I believe Roger is confusing me with exPBer @SeanT, and, as always, has got all the details completely wrong: the award was the Bad Sex in Fiction prize, not "Henry Miller", and it is for a passage of absurd sex writing, not a whole book
The passage is quite quite something. The excerpts you find online do not remotely do it justice. After the lagershed I might put it on here, but it really has to be after the lagershed
The one that ends in "aiwa"?
I might actually have it on my bookshelf still somewhere. I picked it up in the 2000s on the basis of the notoriety of that passage, long before I ever heard of PB.
The fact I can still remember the outline of the plot two decades later suggests it's a decent read - I read a lot and don't remember most books. A bit amis-y in places but it was the style of the time...
Amis fils presumably?
Top tip: The Zone Of Interest is I think his best. Much more complex than the film and no faux cockneys in it.
Amis (M.) went off the boil around the time of The Information and never really got it back. I did read the zone of interest and can't remember a bloody thing about it, save for the protagonist is called Paul Doll. If I can remember the details of a book years later chances are it's good. If I draw a blank, it's a miss. I barely remember anything from an Amis book published after 1995.
Not read The Information. Gave up on London Fields which reads like an accurate but uninspired parody.
That's one vote for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam.
My vote is 100% influenced by wanting to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary.
Oh aye, like that’s gonna happen.
Didn’t you previously say you were minded not to vote Tory? Are you Big G-like in your flip floppery?!
I’m only joshing, I don’t blame you, or him, for returning to the fold. You both seem to have longstanding, heartfelt, tribal feelings for the party. It’s not something I understand personally, but it must be difficult to see an organisation you have such an affinity, a connection, with in such deep, deep shit.
I’ll never forgive the Tories for what they’ve done to this country for the last 14 years, for the damage austerity has brought to my part of the Red Wall, the closed libraries and sports centres, the crumbling public realm, the hard-pressed public services, the slow, wilful destruction of the NHS. And I’ll never forgive them for stripping me of my European citizenship and Freedom of Movement, for their weakness in standing up to their nutters.
I want them to get a good fucking hammering. I want their handling of the last 14 years to be clearly, unequivocally, decisively rejected by the public. I want them to be chastened, to have their time in the wilderness, to renew. But I don’t want them destroyed. Because as bad as they are - and I hate the party with a passion even though I have plenty of Tory friends -Farage is worse.
The number of people I know who are voting Tory is quite extraordinary. I think it's one of those habits that are hard to break. If it wasn't for PB and my belief in polls I would be putting my house on at least a hung parliament
Roger, you're a wealthy retired tampon ad executive, educated at a minor public school, who mainly lives in Villefranche-sur-Mer
Your social circle is probably quite unusual, and may indeed be limited to 24/7 private nurses
I have a wide circle of friends and family, home and abroad, rich and poor, who are a real mix, arty and geeky, you name it. In the past they've been everything from SWP to BNP, but mainly Labour and Tory, with a couple of Libs, Nits and UKIPs
Not a single one is definitely voting Tory. One was edging that way but the Reform Manifesto has tempted her to Farage
I can therefore believe these stories of total wipe-out (sorry @Sandpit). Unless there is a shy Tory effect at work, but I don't believe it, people aren't embarrassed about voting Tory or not voting Tory, they just despise them, quietly or loudly. A shy Reform vote is more likely, because Farage
What about a deal. You stop calling me 'a tampon ad exec' and I'll stop referring to you (accurately) as the winner of the Henry Miller award for the worst sex book ever written.
The winning passage, I assume, was a rather crass and cringe depiction of a breathless and sweaty menage a un.
I believe Roger is confusing me with exPBer @SeanT, and, as always, has got all the details completely wrong: the award was the Bad Sex in Fiction prize, not "Henry Miller", and it is for a passage of absurd sex writing, not a whole book
The passage is quite quite something. The excerpts you find online do not remotely do it justice. After the lagershed I might put it on here, but it really has to be after the lagershed
The one that ends in "aiwa"?
I might actually have it on my bookshelf still somewhere. I picked it up in the 2000s on the basis of the notoriety of that passage, long before I ever heard of PB.
The fact I can still remember the outline of the plot two decades later suggests it's a decent read - I read a lot and don't remember most books. A bit amis-y in places but it was the style of the time...
Amis fils presumably?
Top tip: The Zone Of Interest is I think his best. Much more complex than the film and no faux cockneys in it.
Amis (M.) went off the boil around the time of The Information and never really got it back. I did read the zone of interest and can't remember a bloody thing about it, save for the protagonist is called Paul Doll. If I can remember the details of a book years later chances are it's good. If I draw a blank, it's a miss. I barely remember anything from an Amis book published after 1995.
The Information is brillianjt, tho. It's my favourite of his books. Money is second. After that, yes, couldn't be arsed to open one
A message from Witham constituency. In spite of facing a substantial Tory majority (24k in 2019 and 18k in 2017, when the Labour candidate was a local man) the Labour candidate has now sent out three leaflets against one for Priti Patel. Nothing from anyone else yet.
You think lots of leaflets reminding voters their candidate is Priti Patel would be a great strategy?
Point noted; however there are several local issues where she’s been notably quiet. So far, anyway.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
He's another Brexit wanker traitor who emigrates to avoid the unflushed turd he created.
Do you think calling me a "Brexit wanker/traitor" benefits the site?
Yes, as I am only following your style.
Ah, the sincerest form of flattery. I don't blame you, my style is quite the thing
It really isn't.
Well, my style pays, and indeed it pays extremely well, at times
It’s sad that you so often fall back to that as the justification-of-last-resort, as if anyone else here seriously thinks that it’s any kind of scorecard.
That was advantage betting as the outcome still wasn't a certainty. It effectively allowed the sharps to be one point ahead in knowledge to feed their models.
One of the episodes deals with courtsiding and I seem to recall the guy wanted to find a doddery old woman umpire who was slow to enter each point into the electronic system. Betting after the point is won is a bit different.
I would have thought the betting companies would have someone sitting on the court to make sure they have the latest information. It's remarkable that they don't imo, if that's the case.
The bookies' data comes from the umpires scoring pads. But umpires may not consider immediate pressing of the button as their top priority.
With the Romanian and US decisions on Patriot, the F16s by summer story and now this, it seems there's been something of an uptick in western determination to actually prevail in Ukraine.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Do you think Reform will surprise on the upside?
Because I would hate for us to lose our touch.
You could try modding the site so it is slightly less hateful to anyone remotely minded to vote Reform, or even inclined to say "actually Farage has a point" etc etc
This is not for my protection, I don't give a fuck
But we need PB to be a broad church so we can make infiormed bets or wise predictions. It really isn't, in this instance
The absence of Reform voters on PB is telling in itself. It suggests that they are not particularly politically engaged, or are likely not to be traditional Tories (HYUFD/BigG/DavidL etc), do not have access to the internet, do not place bets or some combination of these.
You can extract quite a lot of that if you base your betting on polling sample error, swing versus turnout, demographics and so on.
Alternatively, the hostility you mention could lead to something hitherto unheard of - shy Reform voters. PB might be different but in my experience these types of people are more than happy to advertise their views. DYOR.
That or PB is largely made up of middle managers and accountants from the status obsessed middle classes who consider a vote for the Faragist intifada completely non-u due to status anxiety.
Whereas one of the richest poshos I know has shamelessly broken for reform on the basis he thinks the tories have f***Ed the country.
I suspect it's all a bit like status conscious people shopping at asda while saying they only ever shop in waitrose.
A lot of those types will break for reform, but won't admit it. Until enough people in their social circle make it acceptable to talk about.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
He's another Brexit wanker traitor who emigrates to avoid the unflushed turd he created.
Do you think calling me a "Brexit wanker/traitor" benefits the site?
Yes, as I am only following your style.
Ah, the sincerest form of flattery. I don't blame you, my style is quite the thing
It really isn't.
Well, my style pays, and indeed it pays extremely well, at times
So you say. No one went broke underestimating the taste of the general public they say.
That's one vote for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam.
My vote is 100% influenced by wanting to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary.
Oh aye, like that’s gonna happen.
Didn’t you previously say you were minded not to vote Tory? Are you Big G-like in your flip floppery?!
I’m only joshing, I don’t blame you, or him, for returning to the fold. You both seem to have longstanding, heartfelt, tribal feelings for the party. It’s not something I understand personally, but it must be difficult to see an organisation you have such an affinity, a connection, with in such deep, deep shit.
I’ll never forgive the Tories for what they’ve done to this country for the last 14 years, for the damage austerity has brought to my part of the Red Wall, the closed libraries and sports centres, the crumbling public realm, the hard-pressed public services, the slow, wilful destruction of the NHS. And I’ll never forgive them for stripping me of my European citizenship and Freedom of Movement, for their weakness in standing up to their nutters.
I want them to get a good fucking hammering. I want their handling of the last 14 years to be clearly, unequivocally, decisively rejected by the public. I want them to be chastened, to have their time in the wilderness, to renew. But I don’t want them destroyed. Because as bad as they are - and I hate the party with a passion even though I have plenty of Tory friends -Farage is worse.
The number of people I know who are voting Tory is quite extraordinary. I think it's one of those habits that are hard to break. If it wasn't for PB and my belief in polls I would be putting my house on at least a hung parliament
Roger, you're a wealthy retired tampon ad executive, educated at a minor public school, who mainly lives in Villefranche-sur-Mer
Your social circle is probably quite unusual, and may indeed be limited to 24/7 private nurses
I have a wide circle of friends and family, home and abroad, rich and poor, who are a real mix, arty and geeky, you name it. In the past they've been everything from SWP to BNP, but mainly Labour and Tory, with a couple of Libs, Nits and UKIPs
Not a single one is definitely voting Tory. One was edging that way but the Reform Manifesto has tempted her to Farage
I can therefore believe these stories of total wipe-out (sorry @Sandpit). Unless there is a shy Tory effect at work, but I don't believe it, people aren't embarrassed about voting Tory or not voting Tory, they just despise them, quietly or loudly. A shy Reform vote is more likely, because Farage
What about a deal. You stop calling me 'a tampon ad exec' and I'll stop referring to you (accurately) as the winner of the Henry Miller award for the worst sex book ever written.
The winning passage, I assume, was a rather crass and cringe depiction of a breathless and sweaty menage a un.
I believe Roger is confusing me with exPBer @SeanT, and, as always, has got all the details completely wrong: the award was the Bad Sex in Fiction prize, not "Henry Miller", and it is for a passage of absurd sex writing, not a whole book
The passage is quite quite something. The excerpts you find online do not remotely do it justice. After the lagershed I might put it on here, but it really has to be after the lagershed
The one that ends in "aiwa"?
I might actually have it on my bookshelf still somewhere. I picked it up in the 2000s on the basis of the notoriety of that passage, long before I ever heard of PB.
The fact I can still remember the outline of the plot two decades later suggests it's a decent read - I read a lot and don't remember most books. A bit amis-y in places but it was the style of the time...
Amis fils presumably?
Top tip: The Zone Of Interest is I think his best. Much more complex than the film and no faux cockneys in it.
Amis (M.) went off the boil around the time of The Information and never really got it back. I did read the zone of interest and can't remember a bloody thing about it, save for the protagonist is called Paul Doll. If I can remember the details of a book years later chances are it's good. If I draw a blank, it's a miss. I barely remember anything from an Amis book published after 1995.
I kind of gave up on Amis after House of Meetings, but I'm puzzled by the Wiki description of Zone of Interest which seems to bear little connection with the (excellent) film of the same name - Doll is Rudolf Höss apparently. It's a good title, pregnant with the adminstrative varnish put on genocide, perhaps Glazer just stole the best bit.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
He's another Brexit wanker traitor who emigrates to avoid the unflushed turd he created.
Do you think calling me a "Brexit wanker/traitor" benefits the site?
Yes, as I am only following your style.
Ah, the sincerest form of flattery. I don't blame you, my style is quite the thing
It really isn't.
Well, my style pays, and indeed it pays extremely well, at times
It’s sad that you so often fall back to that as the justification-of-last-resort, as if anyone else here seriously thinks that it’s any kind of scorecard.
Well, when you're literally talking about "style of prose" it is probably the only test that matters
If you can make a lot of money writing in a certain style, that means a lot of people want to read it, it also means they clearly enjoy it, as they come back for more, so you continue to get paid
So yes I will continue to make this quite obvious point, not least because it drives all the many sad, thwarted people on here completely nuts, including you
Seems the Supreme Court has just effectively banned drilling for oil and gas.
The way to stop the learned judges interfering is of course to repeal the Climate Change act that their ruling is an interpretation of.
This of course is in Reform's manifesto. This ruling couldn't have come at a better time for them. Political catnip.
Vladimir and various Emirs will be pleased too.
From the BBC.
"UK oil and gas plc said they will now work with Surrey County Council to amend its planning application, and that future production will fall below the levels at which an environmental assessment is required."
Still, if the NIMBY ecoloons want to be useful idiots for Russia and the Middle East so be it.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
So she will bugger off to another country where she’ll be an immigrant and yet moans about too many immigrants here . It was like those vox pops in Spain during the EU ref who moaned about too many immigrants in the UK and didn’t compute that they were immigrants in Spain .
I would rather not live in a majority Muslim area, because it would entirely change the cultural feel of the neighborhood: all the pubs shut (no custom), the schools change entirely, the streets and shops are transformed. This happens, I've seen it happen in parts of Birmingham and, to a lesser extent, London
This is not racism, it is merely preferring your own native culture: a very human thing. So if this woman now emigrates to a more traditonally Christian country, albeit foreign, she is making a rational choice
And I have travelled widely in Muslim countries, many of them, and had marvelous times and met some of the most marvelous people. I just don't want to live in a Muslim country/locale
Swich it around, if a load of white Christians swiftly took over half a town in Pakistan and opened pubs and closed all the mosques and opened churches then the Pakistani locals would probably feel quite aggreived and upset. And that would not be racism, either. Just human nature: their sense of upset would be justified
Dubai waves at you. 👋🏼
The locals are quite happy at what the place has become in the last two decades.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Do you think Reform will surprise on the upside?
Because I would hate for us to lose our touch.
You could try modding the site so it is slightly less hateful to anyone remotely minded to vote Reform, or even inclined to say "actually Farage has a point" etc etc
This is not for my protection, I don't give a fuck
But we need PB to be a broad church so we can make infiormed bets or wise predictions. It really isn't, in this instance
The absence of Reform voters on PB is telling in itself. It suggests that they are not particularly politically engaged, or are likely not to be traditional Tories (HYUFD/BigG/DavidL etc), do not have access to the internet, do not place bets or some combination of these.
You can extract quite a lot of that if you base your betting on polling sample error, swing versus turnout, demographics and so on.
Alternatively, the hostility you mention could lead to something hitherto unheard of - shy Reform voters. PB might be different but in my experience these types of people are more than happy to advertise their views. DYOR.
That or PB is largely made up of middle managers and accountants from the status obsessed middle classes who consider a vote for the Faragist intifada completely non-u due to status anxiety.
Whereas one of the richest poshos I know has shamelessly broken for reform on the basis he thinks the tories have f***Ed the country.
I suspect it's all a bit like status conscious people shopping at asda while saying they only ever shop in waitrose.
A lot of those types will break for reform, but won't admit it. Until enough people in their social circle make it acceptable to talk about.
95% of PBers have terrible Status Anxiety
I doubt it's anything like that - though you do add to that category,
Reform probably need to hit a very high % polling number before seats fall like dominos, because they ain't got a clue how to work seats - the LDs do.
The only other option is their votes all materalise in specific and rich areas for them, so they scoop the 20-25 surprise seats on the night on a 20%+ share.
These clowns are so stupid they did not get an unknown 3rd party to put the bets on , explains why the country is circling the drain.
They shouldn't have to, malc. This is yet another example of a thing being punished for no good reason. It is legal to gamble.
In fixed-odds bookmaking, the bookmaker knows that there may be people on the other side of the bet with insider information. When people start piling on implausible candidates (eg "The Next Doctor Who Is Jodie Whittaker" in 2016 or "...Is Peter Capaldi" in 2013) the proper response is for the bookmakers to take it on the chin and suspend the market.
PB prides itself on being for free speech (unless it's speech it doesn't like) and against cancellation (except for the people it wants cancelled). We should be loudly decrying this violation of the gambler's rights and interfering with their gambling, not nodding and winking at it.
I never thought I'd be acting for Conservative Party personnel, but it's a topsy-turvy world these days.
It is of course legal to gamble. But is it legal to place a bet on an outcome you already know, by virtue of your position, to be certain ? Or are you at that point defrauding the bookmaker ?
Aren't all bets about information asymmetry? If you have more and better information than me, you win. If I have more and better information than you, I win.
Many years ago, I was involved in a campaign which was the defence of a theoretically marginal seat, where bookies were offering odds a little worse than evens on a Lib Dem hold. But I'd been on the doorstep and spoken to plenty of others who had, and we were cruising home to a huge win. I made a lot of money on it.
I don't quite see at what point you think it becomes cheating...
The point at which it's a certainty.
Outwitting bookies on the likely odds (even if you're outwitting them massively) of an event whose outcome is yet to be decided, and getting them to take a bet on an event you already know the outcome of, are two very different things.
Isn't the example I gave was as much a certainty as this case? The candidate won in a landslide, and I KNEW that would happen - a surprise on the downside would have been a win by only a few thousand. You can say I wasn't certain and maybe it was 99.5%... but (even putting it at its maximum) that seems to have been the case here - Sunak could have had a last minute change of heart.
We also don't, in fact, know the extent of knowledge here. Suppose CCHQ are suddenly asked by Number 10 to draw up a plan of what a July election looks like. That's a golden piece of information in terms of saying the odds on July were WAY too long - but it isn't knowledge of the date at all, but maybe a 50/50 when the odds are 10-1.
Additionally, I go back to the point that bookies don't have to open a book, and can limit bets or exclude customers. I recall the case of the chubby goalie a few years ago where a bookie offered odds on him being seen eating a pie during an FA Cup tie. He was an unused sub, when all subs had been used - he placed a bet and promptly got himself a pie. People got holier-than-thou on that too - I say them's the breaks. Do you think he should be investigated for a potential criminal offence under the Gambling Act? It's ludicrous.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
So she will bugger off to another country where she’ll be an immigrant and yet moans about too many immigrants here . It was like those vox pops in Spain during the EU ref who moaned about too many immigrants in the UK and didn’t compute that they were immigrants in Spain .
I would rather not live in a majority Muslim area, because it would entirely change the cultural feel of the neighborhood: all the pubs shut (no custom), the schools change entirely, the streets and shops are transformed. This happens, I've seen it happen in parts of Birmingham and, to a lesser extent, London
This is not racism, it is merely preferring your own native culture: a very human thing. So if this woman now emigrates to a more traditonally Christian country, albeit foreign, she is making a rational choice
And I have travelled widely in Muslim countries, many of them, and had marvelous times and met some of the most marvelous people. I just don't want to live in a Muslim country/locale
Swich it around, if a load of white Christians swiftly took over half a town in Pakistan and opened pubs and closed all the mosques and opened churches then the Pakistani locals would probably feel quite aggreived and upset. And that would not be racism, either. Just human nature: their sense of upset would be justified
Dubai waves at you. 👋🏼
The locals are quite happy at what the place has become in the last two decades.
Dubai is pretty unique tho. It was a dismal backwater and made the conscious decision to open its doors to the world as a route to prosperity. It has worked brilliantly well, and good luck to them. Ditto places like Singapore and Hong Kong (as was, sob)
What worked for a small emirate like Dubai would go catastrophically badly in many other parts of the Muslim world, indeed it wouldn't even be allowed. Saudi is not about to let in 2m Christians keen on opening pubs and selling bacon sarnies on streetcorners
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Do you think Reform will surprise on the upside?
Because I would hate for us to lose our touch.
When I look at Reform I can see them winning Clacton, Ashfield is possible because that's got some interesting local issues then after that I need to look for seats where Labour will do badly and with Reform getting a lot of votes.
My default seat for that is Redcar (as it does have a the last lot disappointed us (again) so vote for someone else tendency) but Labour hits that target at the moment.
What I think will be interesting is the number of (clear) second places Reform gets.
Come the 2028/29 GE then in a lot of areas 'Only Reform can beat Labour here' becomes the default message and then Farage might end up winning a lot of seats for the first time.
I don’t sense he’s remotely interested in a long five- to ten-year long haul.
Neither do I but he can disappear for a few years then come back in 2028/29 and start hammering that message.
How does he do that if he is stuck as the MP for Clacton and fails to keep his constituents happy...
A lot of second places and no MPs is way better for Farage than a few wins - especially as its very unlikely the winning Reform candidates will have the expertise to be a decent constituency MP...
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Do you think Reform will surprise on the upside?
Because I would hate for us to lose our touch.
You could try modding the site so it is slightly less hateful to anyone remotely minded to vote Reform, or even inclined to say "actually Farage has a point" etc etc
This is not for my protection, I don't give a fuck
But we need PB to be a broad church so we can make infiormed bets or wise predictions. It really isn't, in this instance
The absence of Reform voters on PB is telling in itself. It suggests that they are not particularly politically engaged, or are likely not to be traditional Tories (HYUFD/BigG/DavidL etc), do not have access to the internet, do not place bets or some combination of these.
You can extract quite a lot of that if you base your betting on polling sample error, swing versus turnout, demographics and so on.
Alternatively, the hostility you mention could lead to something hitherto unheard of - shy Reform voters. PB might be different but in my experience these types of people are more than happy to advertise their views. DYOR.
That or PB is largely made up of middle managers and accountants from the status obsessed middle classes who consider a vote for the Faragist intifada completely non-u due to status anxiety.
Whereas one of the richest poshos I know has shamelessly broken for reform on the basis he thinks the tories have f***Ed the country.
I suspect it's all a bit like status conscious people shopping at asda while saying they only ever shop in waitrose.
A lot of those types will break for reform, but won't admit it. Until enough people in their social circle make it acceptable to talk about.
95% of PBers have terrible Status Anxiety
Your anxiety is your own problem. It's a pretty broad church here and by and large it's been enjoyable... but if I were you I'd tone it down a bit.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Do you think Reform will surprise on the upside?
Because I would hate for us to lose our touch.
You could try modding the site so it is slightly less hateful to anyone remotely minded to vote Reform, or even inclined to say "actually Farage has a point" etc etc
This is not for my protection, I don't give a fuck
But we need PB to be a broad church so we can make infiormed bets or wise predictions. It really isn't, in this instance
The absence of Reform voters on PB is telling in itself. It suggests that they are not particularly politically engaged, or are likely not to be traditional Tories (HYUFD/BigG/DavidL etc), do not have access to the internet, do not place bets or some combination of these.
You can extract quite a lot of that if you base your betting on polling sample error, swing versus turnout, demographics and so on.
Alternatively, the hostility you mention could lead to something hitherto unheard of - shy Reform voters. PB might be different but in my experience these types of people are more than happy to advertise their views. DYOR.
If PB is suddenly full if people who are shy about sharing their opinion then I have to say that is news to me!
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Do you think Reform will surprise on the upside?
Because I would hate for us to lose our touch.
You could try modding the site so it is slightly less hateful to anyone remotely minded to vote Reform, or even inclined to say "actually Farage has a point" etc etc
This is not for my protection, I don't give a fuck
But we need PB to be a broad church so we can make infiormed bets or wise predictions. It really isn't, in this instance
The absence of Reform voters on PB is telling in itself. It suggests that they are not particularly politically engaged, or are likely not to be traditional Tories (HYUFD/BigG/DavidL etc), do not have access to the internet, do not place bets or some combination of these.
You can extract quite a lot of that if you base your betting on polling sample error, swing versus turnout, demographics and so on.
Alternatively, the hostility you mention could lead to something hitherto unheard of - shy Reform voters. PB might be different but in my experience these types of people are more than happy to advertise their views. DYOR.
That or PB is largely made up of middle managers and accountants from the status obsessed middle classes who consider a vote for the Faragist intifada completely non-u due to status anxiety.
Whereas one of the richest poshos I know has shamelessly broken for reform on the basis he thinks the tories have f***Ed the country.
I suspect it's all a bit like status conscious people shopping at asda while saying they only ever shop in waitrose.
A lot of those types will break for reform, but won't admit it. Until enough people in their social circle make it acceptable to talk about.
95% of PBers have terrible Status Anxiety
Your anxiety is your own problem. It's a pretty broad church here and by and large it's been enjoyable... but if I were you I'd tone it down a bit.
If you were actually him, then surely you wouldn't feel the need to tone it down?
2nd bit of feedback from Wantage and Didcot ( @Andy_Cooke and @NickPalmer ). Again another member of the campaign I am involved in who are non political but very interested in who gets elected for obvious reasons. The current Tory MP has been a champion for our cause.
"I have had campaign leaflets from Labour and the SDP, plus several leaflets from the Liberal Democrats.
The Liberal Democrats are making quite in effort in Wantage, and seem to regard this as one of their target seats."
Thanks, kjh - always useful to get the feel of whether or not we're cutting through.
There are countless LibDem leaflets, which mostly are generic (not referring to the candidate) - on a given day, residents may receive 2 different ones: they are slightly overdoing it IMO. There are fairly widespread Labour leaflets and some SDP leaflets, but none so far from the Tories, who seem to have given up. LibDem posters were up first and are moderately common, though less so than in previous seats where I've been aqctive. Labour posters are catching up. I've yet to see a single Tory poster. Constituency polling varies between a smalle Labour lead to a large LibDem lead; I've yet to see a Tory lead predicted by any of them. Labour is working hard and in with a reasonable shot - but there are masses of tactical anti-Tory voters still making up their minds.
The YouGov MRP, which has a local sample as its base unlike those that only work top down from modelling, puts the LibDems in pole position, with Labour way back tussling with Reform for third and fourth place. The recent PCC elections saw LibDems outpoll Labour in both the council areas covered by that seat. Tactical voters should by now have a clear picture of what they need to do, to defeat the Tory.
The local elections last year are atypical for reasons of Labour chaos (they only put up candidates for a few seats), now sorted out, and there are numerous MRP polls with local samples, varying from a large LibDems lead to a small Labour lead. I don't think the Tory has much chance; the LibDem is probably favourite but short of local help (the Oxford team that got Laila in have moved on to this and other seats), and arguably they should be concentrating on Henley, where Labour isn't trying as hard. It depends whether one thinks their national prospects are, say, 30, 50 or 70.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
He's another Brexit wanker traitor who emigrates to avoid the unflushed turd he created.
Do you think calling me a "Brexit wanker/traitor" benefits the site?
Yes, as I am only following your style.
Ah, the sincerest form of flattery. I don't blame you, my style is quite the thing
It really isn't.
Well, my style pays, and indeed it pays extremely well, at times
It’s sad that you so often fall back to that as the justification-of-last-resort, as if anyone else here seriously thinks that it’s any kind of scorecard.
It's when Leon questions your manhood that you really know you've won the argument (if you're a bloke).
That's one vote for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam.
My vote is 100% influenced by wanting to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary.
Oh aye, like that’s gonna happen.
Didn’t you previously say you were minded not to vote Tory? Are you Big G-like in your flip floppery?!
I’m only joshing, I don’t blame you, or him, for returning to the fold. You both seem to have longstanding, heartfelt, tribal feelings for the party. It’s not something I understand personally, but it must be difficult to see an organisation you have such an affinity, a connection, with in such deep, deep shit.
I’ll never forgive the Tories for what they’ve done to this country for the last 14 years, for the damage austerity has brought to my part of the Red Wall, the closed libraries and sports centres, the crumbling public realm, the hard-pressed public services, the slow, wilful destruction of the NHS. And I’ll never forgive them for stripping me of my European citizenship and Freedom of Movement, for their weakness in standing up to their nutters.
I want them to get a good fucking hammering. I want their handling of the last 14 years to be clearly, unequivocally, decisively rejected by the public. I want them to be chastened, to have their time in the wilderness, to renew. But I don’t want them destroyed. Because as bad as they are - and I hate the party with a passion even though I have plenty of Tory friends -Farage is worse.
The number of people I know who are voting Tory is quite extraordinary. I think it's one of those habits that are hard to break. If it wasn't for PB and my belief in polls I would be putting my house on at least a hung parliament
Roger, you're a wealthy retired tampon ad executive, educated at a minor public school, who mainly lives in Villefranche-sur-Mer
Your social circle is probably quite unusual, and may indeed be limited to 24/7 private nurses
I have a wide circle of friends and family, home and abroad, rich and poor, who are a real mix, arty and geeky, you name it. In the past they've been everything from SWP to BNP, but mainly Labour and Tory, with a couple of Libs, Nits and UKIPs
Not a single one is definitely voting Tory. One was edging that way but the Reform Manifesto has tempted her to Farage
I can therefore believe these stories of total wipe-out (sorry @Sandpit). Unless there is a shy Tory effect at work, but I don't believe it, people aren't embarrassed about voting Tory or not voting Tory, they just despise them, quietly or loudly. A shy Reform vote is more likely, because Farage
What about a deal. You stop calling me 'a tampon ad exec' and I'll stop referring to you (accurately) as the winner of the Henry Miller award for the worst sex book ever written.
The winning passage, I assume, was a rather crass and cringe depiction of a breathless and sweaty menage a un.
I believe Roger is confusing me with exPBer @SeanT, and, as always, has got all the details completely wrong: the award was the Bad Sex in Fiction prize, not "Henry Miller", and it is for a passage of absurd sex writing, not a whole book
The passage is quite quite something. The excerpts you find online do not remotely do it justice. After the lagershed I might put it on here, but it really has to be after the lagershed
The one that ends in "aiwa"?
I might actually have it on my bookshelf still somewhere. I picked it up in the 2000s on the basis of the notoriety of that passage, long before I ever heard of PB.
The fact I can still remember the outline of the plot two decades later suggests it's a decent read - I read a lot and don't remember most books. A bit amis-y in places but it was the style of the time...
Amis fils presumably?
Top tip: The Zone Of Interest is I think his best. Much more complex than the film and no faux cockneys in it.
Amis (M.) went off the boil around the time of The Information and never really got it back. I did read the zone of interest and can't remember a bloody thing about it, save for the protagonist is called Paul Doll. If I can remember the details of a book years later chances are it's good. If I draw a blank, it's a miss. I barely remember anything from an Amis book published after 1995.
I kind of gave up on Amis after House of Meetings, but I'm puzzled by the Wiki description of Zone of Interest which seems to bear little connection with the (excellent) film of the same name - Doll is Rudolf Höss apparently. It's a good title, pregnant with the adminstrative varnish put on genocide, perhaps Glazer just stole the best bit.
I thought Zone of Interest (the movie) was a masterpiece, the lack of any story somehow made it better, because that is life, often there is no story as such, just life going on day after day, humdrum and quotidian, yet over the wall the Holocaust
And my God that fucking soundtrack, a work of total genius. The best, certainly most terrifying soundtrack in movie history?? At certain points it was freaking me out so much the ordinary cries of the baby made me shudder, like a baby times a million
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
So she will bugger off to another country where she’ll be an immigrant and yet moans about too many immigrants here . It was like those vox pops in Spain during the EU ref who moaned about too many immigrants in the UK and didn’t compute that they were immigrants in Spain .
I would rather not live in a majority Muslim area, because it would entirely change the cultural feel of the neighborhood: all the pubs shut (no custom), the schools change entirely, the streets and shops are transformed. This happens, I've seen it happen in parts of Birmingham and, to a lesser extent, London
This is not racism, it is merely preferring your own native culture: a very human thing. So if this woman now emigrates to a more traditonally Christian country, albeit foreign, she is making a rational choice
And I have travelled widely in Muslim countries, many of them, and had marvelous times and met some of the most marvelous people. I just don't want to live in a Muslim country/locale
Swich it around, if a load of white Christians swiftly took over half a town in Pakistan and opened pubs and closed all the mosques and opened churches then the Pakistani locals would probably feel quite aggreived and upset. And that would not be racism, either. Just human nature: their sense of upset would be justified
Dubai waves at you. 👋🏼
The locals are quite happy at what the place has become in the last two decades.
Dubai is pretty unique tho. It was a dismal backwater and made the conscious decision to open its doors to the world as a route to prosperity. It has worked brilliantly well, and good luck to them. Ditto places like Singapore and Hong Kong (as was, sob)
What worked for a small emirate like Dubai would go catastrophically badly in many other parts of the Muslim world, indeed it wouldn't even be allowed. Saudi is not about to let in 2m Christians keen on opening pubs and selling bacon sarnies on streetcorners
Give me an hour or so, and I’ll be waving from the pub two doors down from my house while eating a bacon sandwich!
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
So she will bugger off to another country where she’ll be an immigrant and yet moans about too many immigrants here . It was like those vox pops in Spain during the EU ref who moaned about too many immigrants in the UK and didn’t compute that they were immigrants in Spain .
I would rather not live in a majority Muslim area, because it would entirely change the cultural feel of the neighborhood: all the pubs shut (no custom), the schools change entirely, the streets and shops are transformed. This happens, I've seen it happen in parts of Birmingham and, to a lesser extent, London
This is not racism, it is merely preferring your own native culture: a very human thing. So if this woman now emigrates to a more traditonally Christian country, albeit foreign, she is making a rational choice
And I have travelled widely in Muslim countries, many of them, and had marvelous times and met some of the most marvelous people. I just don't want to live in a Muslim country/locale
Swich it around, if a load of white Christians swiftly took over half a town in Pakistan and opened pubs and closed all the mosques and opened churches then the Pakistani locals would probably feel quite aggreived and upset. And that would not be racism, either. Just human nature: their sense of upset would be justified
Not surprising, I remember a former poster here who used to boast about hissing at muslim women in burkhas.
These clowns are so stupid they did not get an unknown 3rd party to put the bets on , explains why the country is circling the drain.
They shouldn't have to, malc. This is yet another example of a thing being punished for no good reason. It is legal to gamble.
In fixed-odds bookmaking, the bookmaker knows that there may be people on the other side of the bet with insider information. When people start piling on implausible candidates (eg "The Next Doctor Who Is Jodie Whittaker" in 2016 or "...Is Peter Capaldi" in 2013) the proper response is for the bookmakers to take it on the chin and suspend the market.
PB prides itself on being for free speech (unless it's speech it doesn't like) and against cancellation (except for the people it wants cancelled). We should be loudly decrying this violation of the gambler's rights and interfering with their gambling, not nodding and winking at it.
I never thought I'd be acting for Conservative Party personnel, but it's a topsy-turvy world these days.
It is of course legal to gamble. But is it legal to place a bet on an outcome you already know, by virtue of your position, to be certain ? Or are you at that point defrauding the bookmaker ?
Aren't all bets about information asymmetry? If you have more and better information than me, you win. If I have more and better information than you, I win.
Many years ago, I was involved in a campaign which was the defence of a theoretically marginal seat, where bookies were offering odds a little worse than evens on a Lib Dem hold. But I'd been on the doorstep and spoken to plenty of others who had, and we were cruising home to a huge win. I made a lot of money on it.
I don't quite see at what point you think it becomes cheating. If a bookie is worried people know more about it than them, don't open the book. Or do open the book based on a calculation that, while some people have more information than you, most don't and you can always say "£100 max bet".
It clearly wasn't wise for people to place bets, but I'm struggling with this one to say it was any more than unwise.
You didn't originate this LD hold and it was up to the voters. You didn't know for sure. Not so the Tory instance.
That's not a valid distinction. The people accused of betting on this one didn't originate it, as far as we know. I had very strong information about what the voters planned, these people had very strong information about what Sunak planned. I really think people have gone bonkers on this.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Do you think Reform will surprise on the upside?
Because I would hate for us to lose our touch.
You could try modding the site so it is slightly less hateful to anyone remotely minded to vote Reform, or even inclined to say "actually Farage has a point" etc etc
This is not for my protection, I don't give a fuck
But we need PB to be a broad church so we can make infiormed bets or wise predictions. It really isn't, in this instance
The absence of Reform voters on PB is telling in itself. It suggests that they are not particularly politically engaged, or are likely not to be traditional Tories (HYUFD/BigG/DavidL etc), do not have access to the internet, do not place bets or some combination of these.
You can extract quite a lot of that if you base your betting on polling sample error, swing versus turnout, demographics and so on.
Alternatively, the hostility you mention could lead to something hitherto unheard of - shy Reform voters. PB might be different but in my experience these types of people are more than happy to advertise their views. DYOR.
That or PB is largely made up of middle managers and accountants from the status obsessed middle classes who consider a vote for the Faragist intifada completely non-u due to status anxiety.
Whereas one of the richest poshos I know has shamelessly broken for reform on the basis he thinks the tories have f***Ed the country.
I suspect it's all a bit like status conscious people shopping at asda while saying they only ever shop in waitrose.
A lot of those types will break for reform, but won't admit it. Until enough people in their social circle make it acceptable to talk about.
95% of PBers have terrible Status Anxiety
Your anxiety is your own problem. It's a pretty broad church here and by and large it's been enjoyable... but if I were you I'd tone it down a bit.
Tone down what? I am being the image of politeness
Scroll back a few hours and you will find PB-ers outright wishing me dead and telling me to "rot in hell" and accusing me of pedophilia. Literally
Am I responding in kind? No, I am my normal good-humoured self, with the odd barb
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
He's another Brexit wanker traitor who emigrates to avoid the unflushed turd he created.
Do you think calling me a "Brexit wanker/traitor" benefits the site?
Yes, as I am only following your style.
Ah, the sincerest form of flattery. I don't blame you, my style is quite the thing
It really isn't.
Well, my style pays, and indeed it pays extremely well, at times
It’s sad that you so often fall back to that as the justification-of-last-resort, as if anyone else here seriously thinks that it’s any kind of scorecard.
Well, when you're literally talking about "style of prose" it is probably the only test that matters
If you can make a lot of money writing in a certain style, that means a lot of people want to read it, it also means they clearly enjoy it, as they come back for more, so you continue to get paid
So yes I will continue to make this quite obvious point, not least because it drives all the many sad, thwarted people on here completely nuts, including you
Not really. People will pay for all sorts of rubbish.
Most often done at tennis matches, you attend a sporting event in person and bet just as something happens. You'd have one guy at the match and another at home on his laptop ready to press "submit bet" at the right moment.
Is TV not live then? I thought it was.
No had always been some delay, but with some modern feeds / streams, there is a really significant delay.
There are a number of additional steps required to digitise to images relatively to realtime. One of which is you need the next key frame (so 0.5 seconds later) to calculate the intermediate changes
Add network latancy and attempts to minimise bandwidth usage and you can introduce serious delays - I find 6 music can be 30 seconds behind streaming relative to DAB and were it Radio 2 you would discover there is a delay added to FM nowadays to ensure FM and DAB are in sync.
Are the time pips on radio 4 delayed then?
The church locally seems to be about 50 seconds behind the Angelus as broadcast on RTÉ, and I would have expected it to be the other way round, but perhaps the local church are very far behind. Local time does seem to be somewhat delayed in general.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
So she will bugger off to another country where she’ll be an immigrant and yet moans about too many immigrants here . It was like those vox pops in Spain during the EU ref who moaned about too many immigrants in the UK and didn’t compute that they were immigrants in Spain .
I would rather not live in a majority Muslim area, because it would entirely change the cultural feel of the neighborhood: all the pubs shut (no custom), the schools change entirely, the streets and shops are transformed. This happens, I've seen it happen in parts of Birmingham and, to a lesser extent, London
This is not racism, it is merely preferring your own native culture: a very human thing. So if this woman now emigrates to a more traditonally Christian country, albeit foreign, she is making a rational choice
And I have travelled widely in Muslim countries, many of them, and had marvelous times and met some of the most marvelous people. I just don't want to live in a Muslim country/locale
Swich it around, if a load of white Christians swiftly took over half a town in Pakistan and opened pubs and closed all the mosques and opened churches then the Pakistani locals would probably feel quite aggreived and upset. And that would not be racism, either. Just human nature: their sense of upset would be justified
Dubai waves at you. 👋🏼
The locals are quite happy at what the place has become in the last two decades.
Dubai is pretty unique tho. It was a dismal backwater and made the conscious decision to open its doors to the world as a route to prosperity. It has worked brilliantly well, and good luck to them. Ditto places like Singapore and Hong Kong (as was, sob)
What worked for a small emirate like Dubai would go catastrophically badly in many other parts of the Muslim world, indeed it wouldn't even be allowed. Saudi is not about to let in 2m Christians keen on opening pubs and selling bacon sarnies on streetcorners
Give me an hour or so, and I’ll be waving from the pub two doors down from my house while eating a bacon sandwich!
I am right now weighing up digital nomad visas. Dubai is on the list
Do you know if they have a minimum stay criterion? eg you must live in Dubai 6 months of the year etc? Some do, some don't seem to care
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
So she will bugger off to another country where she’ll be an immigrant and yet moans about too many immigrants here . It was like those vox pops in Spain during the EU ref who moaned about too many immigrants in the UK and didn’t compute that they were immigrants in Spain .
I would rather not live in a majority Muslim area, because it would entirely change the cultural feel of the neighborhood: all the pubs shut (no custom), the schools change entirely, the streets and shops are transformed. This happens, I've seen it happen in parts of Birmingham and, to a lesser extent, London
This is not racism, it is merely preferring your own native culture: a very human thing. So if this woman now emigrates to a more traditonally Christian country, albeit foreign, she is making a rational choice
And I have travelled widely in Muslim countries, many of them, and had marvelous times and met some of the most marvelous people. I just don't want to live in a Muslim country/locale
Swich it around, if a load of white Christians swiftly took over half a town in Pakistan and opened pubs and closed all the mosques and opened churches then the Pakistani locals would probably feel quite aggreived and upset. And that would not be racism, either. Just human nature: their sense of upset would be justified
Not surprising, I remember a former poster here who used to boast about hissing at muslim women in burkhas.
Would that be Sidney the Snake or Gordon the Goose?
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Do you think Reform will surprise on the upside?
Because I would hate for us to lose our touch.
When I look at Reform I can see them winning Clacton, Ashfield is possible because that's got some interesting local issues then after that I need to look for seats where Labour will do badly and with Reform getting a lot of votes.
My default seat for that is Redcar (as it does have a the last lot disappointed us (again) so vote for someone else tendency) but Labour hits that target at the moment.
What I think will be interesting is the number of (clear) second places Reform gets.
Come the 2028/29 GE then in a lot of areas 'Only Reform can beat Labour here' becomes the default message and then Farage might end up winning a lot of seats for the first time.
I don’t sense he’s remotely interested in a long five- to ten-year long haul.
Neither do I but he can disappear for a few years then come back in 2028/29 and start hammering that message.
How does he do that if he is stuck as the MP for Clacton and fails to keep his constituents happy...
A lot of second places and no MPs is way better for Farage than a few wins - especially as its very unlikely the winning Reform candidates will have the expertise to be a decent constituency MP...
Ultimately, what does Nigel actually want? Lest we forget, a few weeks ago the official lines was that he wasn't even going to be a candidate. And the path some are mapping out, win in Clacton, take over the Conservative Party, become PM in 2029... It's not that plausible, is it? And for all that others have tried, Farage is the only one to make the Reform formula cut through.
Besides, the Reform surge has been based on promising impossible bollocks. I reckon his corduroy trousers would be pretty rapidly soiled if the were ever to find himself responsible for anything.
The spread on Reform seats has moved up to 6-8, so I am just about green on my buy at 5.5 but I am struggling to see which seats they actually win.
Clacton and Ashfield, yes, but where are seats 3,4,5 & 6?
We need to recruit some RefUK posters.
The fact they aren't here tells you something.
Given the flak anyone trying to point out why they are getting traction gets, with regular "fascist" and similar comments about them , is that surprising?
Quite so. PB is losing its touch, it is so absurdly, hysterically hostile to Reform - now polling around 20% let us note - you have to be a hard-arsed thick-skinned son of a bitch to even mention some reasons they might appeal. Luckily, I am a thick skinned SOB so I don't care, but imagine what less obdurate and grizzled lurkers might feel, coming on here?
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Emigrating to avoid foreigners? Quite...
So she will bugger off to another country where she’ll be an immigrant and yet moans about too many immigrants here . It was like those vox pops in Spain during the EU ref who moaned about too many immigrants in the UK and didn’t compute that they were immigrants in Spain .
I would rather not live in a majority Muslim area, because it would entirely change the cultural feel of the neighborhood: all the pubs shut (no custom), the schools change entirely, the streets and shops are transformed. This happens, I've seen it happen in parts of Birmingham and, to a lesser extent, London
This is not racism, it is merely preferring your own native culture: a very human thing. So if this woman now emigrates to a more traditonally Christian country, albeit foreign, she is making a rational choice
And I have travelled widely in Muslim countries, many of them, and had marvelous times and met some of the most marvelous people. I just don't want to live in a Muslim country/locale
Swich it around, if a load of white Christians swiftly took over half a town in Pakistan and opened pubs and closed all the mosques and opened churches then the Pakistani locals would probably feel quite aggreived and upset. And that would not be racism, either. Just human nature: their sense of upset would be justified
Dubai waves at you. 👋🏼
The locals are quite happy at what the place has become in the last two decades.
Dubai is pretty unique tho. It was a dismal backwater and made the conscious decision to open its doors to the world as a route to prosperity. It has worked brilliantly well, and good luck to them. Ditto places like Singapore and Hong Kong (as was, sob)
What worked for a small emirate like Dubai would go catastrophically badly in many other parts of the Muslim world, indeed it wouldn't even be allowed. Saudi is not about to let in 2m Christians keen on opening pubs and selling bacon sarnies on streetcorners
Large chunks of the UK are dismal backwaters too, to be fair. The only thing missing was massive infrastructure investment.
Comments
The way to stop the learned judges interfering is of course to repeal the Climate Change act that their ruling is an interpretation of.
This of course is in Reform's manifesto. This ruling couldn't have come at a better time for them. Political catnip.
Vladimir and various Emirs will be pleased too.
However I bet Boris Johnson has plenty of amazing new insights into the life and thoughts of Boris Johnson, and he was also the winner of the Brexit ref and British PM during some of the most turbulent years in all UK/global history, from Covid to Ukraine. So I probably WILL buy his memoir, as will many people worldwide - and he can write pretty well
He will likely earn that £5m advance, unlike many political memoirs
Nothing from anyone else yet.
Nevertheless they are right to want to make sure of landing their primary strategic objective of recovering third party status in the HoC.
I might actually have it on my bookshelf still somewhere. I picked it up in the 2000s on the basis of the notoriety of that passage, long before I ever heard of PB.
The fact I can still remember the outline of the plot two decades later suggests it's a decent read - I read a lot and don't remember most books. A bit amis-y in places but it was the style of the time...
I saw the same on the leaders' debate with Krishnan Guru Murthy, Some Reform minded woman said that her part of England was now so overwhelmingly foreign it did not feel like home and she was thinking of emigrating. That is a perfectly legitimate point of view, we have just endured 2.4m migrants in 3 years, and that after decades of record immigraion, some parts of Britain HAVE been transformed in a few years, and if I lived in them I might feel hurt, frightened and desirous of fleeing. FFS Camden Tube can be unnerving!
Yet Krishnan wotsit treated her like she had just said "gas all the Muslims" and he asked the leaders whether they wanted HER to leave the UK because she was an obvious racist
If you get that kind of reaction from a well known TV presenter on live TV it's no surprise Reform voters might keep their instincts well hidden. It's disgusting and ultimately very dangerous. Let the people speak
Though I have little interest in buying his memoir (actually, none), I appreciate that quite a few might.
Because I would hate for us to lose our touch.
Top tip: The Zone Of Interest is I think his best. Much more complex than the film and no faux cockneys in it.
wankertraitor who emigrates to avoid the unflushed turd he created.Outwitting bookies on the likely odds (even if you're outwitting them massively) of an event whose outcome is yet to be decided, and getting them to take a bet on an event you already know the outcome of, are two very different things.
This is not for my protection, I don't give a fuck
But we need PB to be a broad church so we can make infiormed bets or wise predictions. It really isn't, in this instance
If you cannot stand the heat then get out of the kitchen.
When will the parties be honest about that?
Less so for me as being catholic I often have as strong or stronger cultural connections with the newcomers. (our local church in a still very white area is probably the most racially diverse community in the area with a big chunk of the population from South Asia and Central and Southern Africa. Racial differences are irrelevant as the Catholicism unites).
(I think growing up in another such community insulated me from the racial (and class snobbery) nastiness that was around in the 70s and 80s)
But if you are a C of E mainstream elderly English person it must be very daunting. And horrible to be smeared as racist if you dare to complain.
I find it hard to think Labour could win with very little local strength, but the LDs do not seem to be making any effort (going to Melksham and Devizes, and Chippenham), so perhaps the national polls will mean Labour could win in a Tory wipeout situation.
But I expect Murrison to hold on.
My default seat for that is Redcar (as it does have a the last lot disappointed us (again) so vote for someone else tendency) but Labour hits that target at the moment.
Come the 2028/29 GE then in a lot of areas 'Only Reform can beat Labour here' becomes the default message and then Farage might end up winning a lot of seats for the first time.
Don't always trust the bookmakers"
https://unherd.com/2024/06/westminsters-gambling-addiction/
"Others won big by backing themselves against the odds. The now-disgraced Liberal MP Clement Freud — who was investigated by the Met in 2016 for histroic child sexual abuse claims — was once notorious for being the shrewdest punter in Westminster when he was the candidate in the Isle of Ely by-election in 1973. Having begun as the 33/1 outsider, he managed to place £1,000 on himself — winning the equivalent of £340,000 in today’s money when he became the MP."
You can extract quite a lot of that if you base your betting on polling sample error, swing versus turnout, demographics and so on.
Alternatively, the hostility you mention could lead to something hitherto unheard of - shy Reform voters. PB might be different but in my experience these types of people are more than happy to advertise their views. DYOR.
“A sudden surge in activity on the betting markets sealed [Morgan McSweeney, Sir Keir Starmer’s campaign chief] conviction that a July poll would be called imminently.”
https://x.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1803763164405768609
This is not racism, it is merely preferring your own native culture: a very human thing. So if this woman now emigrates to a more traditonally Christian country, albeit foreign, she is making a rational choice
And I have travelled widely in Muslim countries, many of them, and had marvelous times and met some of the most marvelous people. I just don't want to live in a Muslim country/locale
Swich it around, if a load of white Christians swiftly took over half a town in Pakistan and opened pubs and closed all the mosques and opened churches then the Pakistani locals would probably feel quite aggreived and upset. And that would not be racism, either. Just human nature: their sense of upset would be justified
They emigrate because when they see the country they live in is being flooded with low wage immigration they see no hope of a better quality of life for themselves or children or even great-grandchildren. Saying such people "hate foreigners" is a purposeful misunderstanding if why they want control of our borders and restricted high quality migration into the country they live in.
S. Korea will reconsider issue of arms supply to Ukraine: presidential official
https://x.com/YonhapNews/status/1803722781684801686
I'm not sure if I'm joking.
Whereas one of the richest poshos I know has shamelessly broken for reform on the basis he thinks the tories have f***Ed the country.
I suspect it's all a bit like status conscious people shopping at asda while saying they only ever shop in waitrose.
A lot of those types will break for reform, but won't admit it. Until enough people in their social circle make it acceptable to talk about.
Brendan Clarke-Smith reported to police over taxpayer-funded letters postmarked hours after Parliament was dissolved
https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1803688234725028178
If you can make a lot of money writing in a certain style, that means a lot of people want to read it, it also means they clearly enjoy it, as they come back for more, so you continue to get paid
So yes I will continue to make this quite obvious point, not least because it drives all the many sad, thwarted people on here completely nuts, including you
"UK oil and gas plc said they will now work with Surrey County Council to amend its planning application, and that future production will fall below the levels at which an environmental assessment is required."
Still, if the NIMBY ecoloons want to be useful idiots for Russia and the Middle East so be it.
The locals are quite happy at what the place has become in the last two decades.
The only other option is their votes all materalise in specific and rich areas for them, so they scoop the 20-25 surprise seats on the night on a 20%+ share.
We also don't, in fact, know the extent of knowledge here. Suppose CCHQ are suddenly asked by Number 10 to draw up a plan of what a July election looks like. That's a golden piece of information in terms of saying the odds on July were WAY too long - but it isn't knowledge of the date at all, but maybe a 50/50 when the odds are 10-1.
Additionally, I go back to the point that bookies don't have to open a book, and can limit bets or exclude customers. I recall the case of the chubby goalie a few years ago where a bookie offered odds on him being seen eating a pie during an FA Cup tie. He was an unused sub, when all subs had been used - he placed a bet and promptly got himself a pie. People got holier-than-thou on that too - I say them's the breaks. Do you think he should be investigated for a potential criminal offence under the Gambling Act? It's ludicrous.
What worked for a small emirate like Dubai would go catastrophically badly in many other parts of the Muslim world, indeed it wouldn't even be allowed. Saudi is not about to let in 2m Christians keen on opening pubs and selling bacon sarnies on streetcorners
A lot of second places and no MPs is way better for Farage than a few wins - especially as its very unlikely the winning Reform candidates will have the expertise to be a decent constituency MP...
And my God that fucking soundtrack, a work of total genius. The best, certainly most terrifying soundtrack in movie history?? At certain points it was freaking me out so much the ordinary cries of the baby made me shudder, like a baby times a million
Scroll back a few hours and you will find PB-ers outright wishing me dead and telling me to "rot in hell" and accusing me of pedophilia. Literally
Am I responding in kind? No, I am my normal good-humoured self, with the odd barb
The church locally seems to be about 50 seconds behind the Angelus as broadcast on RTÉ, and I would have expected it to be the other way round, but perhaps the local church are very far behind. Local time does seem to be somewhat delayed in general.
Do you know if they have a minimum stay criterion? eg you must live in Dubai 6 months of the year etc? Some do, some don't seem to care
Besides, the Reform surge has been based on promising impossible bollocks. I reckon his corduroy trousers would be pretty rapidly soiled if the were ever to find himself responsible for anything.