There's been a lot of focus on Reform, but the challenge from the Greens and Galloway's lot + independents could also throw up some unusual results. Pollsters who aren't taking account of the different parts of the Labour coalition may be overstating their support.
How are they not taking account of that? They're polling. Respondents can say WPB or Green or independent. Not that many respondents do, not compared to RefUK supporters.
Because their weighting is blind to it. They can have the right percentage of former Labour voters in each age group but still miss other relevant demographic factors like religion, so could miss differential swings.
The MRPs will be picking up on relevant demographic factors. They don't only look at age; they look at various variables. I'm not certain if they look at religion, but I wouldn't be surprised if they do.
All manner of factors if you read the methodology bit. But the polling is national, so the statistical mismatch with individual constituencies can be massive, irrespective of that,
It can, and I expect Corbyn to do well, and the Greens could maybe pick up a seat or two, but I don't see support for williamglenn's contention that pollsters will be overstating Labour's support beyond a few exceptional seats.
Prof Curtis had a discussion about that a couple of days back. Given the massive shifts in voting intention since the last election, there are all manner of other possible sampling errors which will differ from those last time around. So we’ll only really know after the event.
The ability of the MRP to sensibly model a sui generis constituency will be heavily dependent on the responses from that constituency, I presume. So, that's about 36 people. Subsample klaxon needed.
That said, I think that's an entirely plausible result.
So, today's MRPs range from terrible for the Tories through catastrophic to apocalyptic. Given the individual seat by seats are so flaky, I don't see what they are giving us that normal polling doesn't.
They are not high IQ. Hence Leon’s fascination with the phenomenon.
Farage recently stated, "All I do know is that man produces about 3% of the CO2 produced in the world every year" as justification for his party's policy of abandoning net zero commitments. All this shows is that he is utterly clueless about the mechanism of climate change. It's like claiming that an oil leak can be ignored because it is only 3% of the flow around the engine.
There are various potential justifications for abandoning net zero targets - e.g. you believe that new technology with solve the problem, or you don't believe in spending money now for the benefit of future generations - but abandoning them simply because you don't understand why they are needed is just f*****g ridiculous. I'm no fan of the Tories, but least their policies have a nodding acquaintance with reality.
Survation have also done a poll of Jewish voters, Con lead slashed from about 50 points to 9 points since 2019, LD Jewish vote imploded and Labour up to 33 from just 9 under Corbyn Con 42 (-17) Lab 33. (+24) Ref 7 LD 6 (-15) Green 6 (I think, I've misplaced the link, sorry) JEWISH VOTERS KLAXON
The ability of the MRP to sensibly model a sui generis constituency will be heavily dependent on the responses from that constituency, I presume. So, that's about 36 people. Subsample klaxon needed.
That said, I think that's an entirely plausible result.
Survation have also done a poll of Jewish voters, Con lead slashed from about 50 points to 9 points since 2019, LD Jewish vote imploded and Labour up to 33 from just 9 under Corbyn Con 42 (-17) Lab 33. (+24) Ref 7 LD 6 (-15) Green 6 (I think, I've misplaced the link, sorry)
The fact that Lady Vic is Jewish might have helped in some way too.
Survation have also done a poll of Jewish voters, Con lead slashed from about 50 points to 9 points since 2019, LD Jewish vote imploded and Labour up to 33 from just 9 under Corbyn Con 42 (-17) Lab 33. (+24) Ref 7 LD 6 (-15) Green 6 (I think, I've misplaced the link, sorry) JEWISH VOTERS KLAXON
Marie van der Zyl, immediate past President of the Board of Deputies, joined Labour a couple of weeks ago.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
No. But I don't believe you go in there to 'report on the situation'. You don't. I see no chats with the everyman on the street; no insight. All I see is "Phwah! Look at the pretty girls!"
As for your last sentence. Fuck off, Seriously. I know you find it impossible to hold down relationships, but most other people - and posters - do. You might want to consider why that is before you shit over other people's relationships.
It's jealousy, I guess.
(And anyway, we don't have Ocado.... )
Well said JJ.
I’ve tried to be understanding today given his problematic upbringing, addiction to heroin, relationship breakdowns and estrangement from his children (not to mention the dubious seductions of girls of questionable age) but really this guy brings nothing any more to this forum except dislike from every quarter.
I really do not understand why @TSE and @rcs1000 put up with his trolling and flaming. It’s not about embracing a wide range of perspectives. He just insults everybody in the most vile and personally abusive ways.
This forum will come to an end if he’s not disciplined. Just a prediction. Like Putin and the Russian trolls, as well as his latest pin-ups Donald Trump and Nigel Farage, it’s what they want: disruption. And that’s clearly his aim: to disrupt this forum.
Bollocks. There have been thousands of @SeanTs on the forum long before you arrived.
Not much has changed, apart from a turn over to different thousands of @SeanTs.
They have the impact you give them.
@Leon and @Heathener have both recently predicted the death of this forum.
Which prompts me to reflect: since the election has been called I've never known this place to be so buzzing. @tse and @rcs1000 you're doing a great job. I wonder if the donate button should make it's customary appearance? Server load must be quite high, no?
Plus we need some charitable donations in honour of OGH.
I wonder if the Labour leadership might decide that there is some optimal number of MPs beyond which a bigger majority actually makes their job harder, in terms of party management. Better to have the opposition in the form of Tories opposite rather than disgruntled backbenchers behind. Perhaps there will be a focus on winning the really winnable seats rather than putting resources into seats where a win would give them 400+ MPs?
Example of the difference between MRPS: this new one has Gavin Williamson in a 46/46 dead heat with Labour in his new seat, whereas the previous one had him winning fairly easily by 50% to 35%.
This new MRP appears to me to be bollox. LDs on 24% in Chesham and Amersham, but on 50% in Henley and Thame?
I am a mathematical simpleton, and (therefore?) it seems to me that MRP to a degree is druidic entrails examination and that the big unknown is not how individual seats will vary (which they of course will) but the overall weight of votes - the actual % each relevant party gets nationally (or locally for PC/SNP etc). Because this remains a fairly substantial unknown, therefore, a fortiori, the rest is unknowable as well.
Footnote: If you gave a lot of weight to the small number of constituency polling (see Gillingham and Rainham recently) it calls into question a whole lot of data, and is not good news for Tories.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
I know someone who was a captain in the Royal Engineers who defused IED’s in Iraq. He has PTSD. He doesn’t talk about it much. Prefers to talk about his kids. And his dog come to that. The contrast with you, your war tourism and your “SAS” mate is fucking embarrassing.
My SAS mate gave me the best gossip. Which I shall only hand on to PBers brighter and more interesting than you
He also told me he was phoned by a *UK military friend* “somewhere on the Ukraine front line yesterday”
These are my friend’s friend’s words:
“Mate. Total madness out here. We’ve got drones and lasers and missiles, we’ve got everything now. You won’t believe it. We’re killing Russians by the hundreds every day.” Pause. “It’s brilliant.”
Who else brings you vivid commentary like this? No-one
So Lab with 39% win 425 seats, Con+Ref with 37% combined win 113 seats. That's what division does under FPTP.
Yup. FPTP is a beast if your side is split. But whilst it's tempting to add Ref and Con together, one has to wonder what the price would be for Reform to fold themselves into a united party. Partly in terms of policy and personnel. But also in the remaining wets deciding they can't live with that.
I can't source it right now, and it was from about February, so it's dated, but I did see a split recently of how (then) Reform voters would vote were there not a Reform candidate. About 25% said Tory and 15-20% said Labour. Loads said they wouldn't vote or didn't know, with a decent share scattered all over.
Now, the Reform share has gone up since then, mainly at the Tories' expense, the election is impending, concentrating minds, and my memory could be wrong. But even so, Reform withdrawing in this election (unlike 2019, when Brexit was on the line), would be unlikely to boost the Tories much at all.
I wonder if the Labour leadership might decide that there is some optimal number of MPs beyond which a bigger majority actually makes their job harder, in terms of party management. Better to have the opposition in the form of Tories opposite rather than disgruntled backbenchers behind. Perhaps there will be a focus on winning the really winnable seats rather than putting resources into seats where a win would give them 400+ MPs?
No there’s no way Starmer, Reeves etc would prefer 400 seats to 500.
They constantly talk about ‘10 year mandate for national renewal’ and similar phrases. Much easier to do that from 500 seats, gives you a better foundation for 2029
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
I know someone who was a captain in the Royal Engineers who defused IED’s in Iraq. He has PTSD. He doesn’t talk about it much. Prefers to talk about his kids. And his dog come to that. The contrast with you, your war tourism and your “SAS” mate is fucking embarrassing.
My SAS mate gave me the best gossip. Which I shall only hand on to PBers brighter and more interesting than you
He also told me he was phoned by a *UK military friend* “somewhere on the Ukraine front line yesterday”
These are my friend’s friend’s words:
“Mate. Total madness out here. We’ve got drones and lasers and missiles, we’ve got everything now. You won’t believe it. We’re killing Russians by the hundreds every day.” Pause. “It’s brilliant.”
Who else brings you vivid commentary like this? No-one
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
I know someone who was a captain in the Royal Engineers who defused IED’s in Iraq. He has PTSD. He doesn’t talk about it much. Prefers to talk about his kids. And his dog come to that. The contrast with you, your war tourism and your “SAS” mate is fucking embarrassing.
My SAS mate gave me the best gossip. Which I shall only hand on to PBers brighter and more interesting than you
He also told me he was phoned by a *UK military friend* “somewhere on the Ukraine front line yesterday”
These are my friend’s friend’s words:
“Mate. Total madness out here. We’ve got drones and lasers and missiles, we’ve got everything now. You won’t believe it. We’re killing Russians by the hundreds every day.” Pause. “It’s brilliant.”
Who else brings you vivid commentary like this? No-one
But does your SAS mate still think Ukraine is 'probably going to lose', or has he reassessed?
So, today's MRPs range from terrible for the Tories through catastrophic to apocalyptic. Given the individual seat by seats are so flaky, I don't see what they are giving us that normal polling doesn't.
Yes, they seem an overly fancy way of polling TBH.
So Lab with 39% win 425 seats, Con+Ref with 37% combined win 113 seats. That's what division does under FPTP.
Yup. FPTP is a beast if your side is split. But whilst it's tempting to add Ref and Con together, one has to wonder what the price would be for Reform to fold themselves into a united party. Partly in terms of policy and personnel. But also in the remaining wets deciding they can't live with that.
I can't source it right now, and it was from about February, so it's dated, but I did see a split recently of how (then) Reform voters would vote were there not a Reform candidate. About 25% said Tory and 15-20% said Labour. Loads said they wouldn't vote or didn't know, with a decent share scattered all over.
Now, the Reform share has gone up since then, mainly at the Tories' expense, the election is impending, concentrating minds, and my memory could be wrong. But even so, Reform withdrawing in this election (unlike 2019, when Brexit was on the line), would be unlikely to boost the Tories much at all.
Well, obviously Reform cannot withdraw now. Nominations are closed. And the fact that the Reform VI is coming more from Tory can't be dismissed easily. One would have to believe that they'd be more likely to go back to Tory than across to Labour. The Tory-Ref movers likely consist of the weirdos who think the Tories are too soft. Hard to see them thinking Labour would be a better bet for their warped views.
So Lab with 39% win 425 seats, Con+Ref with 37% combined win 113 seats. That's what division does under FPTP.
Yup. FPTP is a beast if your side is split. But whilst it's tempting to add Ref and Con together, one has to wonder what the price would be for Reform to fold themselves into a united party. Partly in terms of policy and personnel. But also in the remaining wets deciding they can't live with that.
I think there is too much bad blood. It would be like asking the LDs to merge with Labour. There are superficial policy similarities but the people hate each other.
Policy #8 is essentially where I am at. Basically the whole Britain joining Europe thing was done arse over backwards. T'other way would work.
I have a vague recollection of reading a sci-fi story where a European Federation was formed with an elected President, and the people voted in the British Monarch pretty much on the basis it was to be a purely ceremonial position, so it just seemed like the best fit.
Google is no help, so I may have just imagined it.
kle4 , It might be "The Wire Continuum" by Stephen Baxter/Arthur C Clarke, 1998, originally published in Playboy, later in the The Collected Stories of Arthur C. Clarke, see https://isfdb.org/cgi-bin/title.cgi?81708
My copy is hardback and therefore boxed, so cannot confirm, apols
So, today's MRPs range from terrible for the Tories through catastrophic to apocalyptic. Given the individual seat by seats are so flaky, I don't see what they are giving us that normal polling doesn't.
Yes, they seem an overly fancy way of polling TBH.
The problem I have is there are too many MRP entrants this year, and it’s for an election which is very, very weird in terms of the skew of victory for one party and the battle for seats amongst the also-rans.
I trust the YouGov ones a little more because of track record (very good in 2017 IIRC, a bit patchy in 2019 but fairly decent). But either way someone’s going to be waaaaay out when the results are counted on 4th.
Savanta: Labour 516 Tories 53 Lib Dems 50 SNP 8 Plaid 4 Reform 0
And yet in another sense pretty consistent in the most important respect.
I do think Reform will win a couple of seats this time, but they could fall into the UKIP trap of mass support to get lots of votes but not clustering enough to win any.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
I know someone who was a captain in the Royal Engineers who defused IED’s in Iraq. He has PTSD. He doesn’t talk about it much. Prefers to talk about his kids. And his dog come to that. The contrast with you, your war tourism and your “SAS” mate is fucking embarrassing.
My SAS mate gave me the best gossip. Which I shall only hand on to PBers brighter and more interesting than you
He also told me he was phoned by a *UK military friend* “somewhere on the Ukraine front line yesterday”
These are my friend’s friend’s words:
“Mate. Total madness out here. We’ve got drones and lasers and missiles, we’ve got everything now. You won’t believe it. We’re killing Russians by the hundreds every day.” Pause. “It’s brilliant.”
Who else brings you vivid commentary like this? No-one
But does your SAS mate still think Ukraine is 'probably going to lose', or has he reassessed?
Reassessed. Says Putin’s offensive is hideously costly (for Putin) and new weapons are giving Ukrainians new resolve. Predicts a stalemate
I wonder if the war will just dribble away into nothing. Not even an armistice. Just mutual exhaustion - for a while
They are not high IQ. Hence Leon’s fascination with the phenomenon.
Farage recently stated, "All I do know is that man produces about 3% of the CO2 produced in the world every year".
Blimey. Which man was he talking about ?
Here you go Mr Farage, your beer. Oh, before you drink it, 3% of that pint has been in my mouth. I took a sip and spat it back in. Don't worry, it's only 3%. Mr Farage, you forgot your beer. Mr Farage? Nigel? I'll just put it on your tab shall I?
“However, the Clacton seat being fought by Nigel Farage is a tight three-way split between the Tories, Labour and Reform, and some of the polling of more than 17,000 people was done before nominations closed and Farage announced his candidacy, meaning there is every chance that the Reform leader could yet win election to Parliament at the eighth time of asking.”
Another one to ignore!
I think Farage is a cert this time- the odds also reflect this as well so not betting on it
I had a nibble on Labour in Clacton shortly after Farage announced. He clearly should be a significant favourite but I thought at the long odds it was well worth it. As though Farage is clearly popular enough there to win - possibly even well - he's still so unpopular with a pretty large group of people such that if the Tories are in as dire straits as we think, it's hardly impossible that the Lab candidate (and his interesting menswear) could run an an effective "Stop Farage" campaign among everyone else.
Especially if Farage's arrival has put the local Tories into disarray, given some will undoubtedly wish they were campaigning for Farage.
Depends on methodology of the individual pollster but, broadly, yes.
I believe the YouGov one kicks off with a reminder of what the participant's constituency is, and asks about their vote in that constituency. It does that a load of times in a load of places. Then, it's essentially predicting what everyone else will do based on the degree of similarity they have with each poll respondent in a number of respects including, crucially, whether they are in a similar constituency.
So if a load of generally Labour-inclined people in Tory/Lib Dem seats say "Well, since you ask me what I'll do in Honiton specifically... I'll vote Lib Dem" then it supposes others like them in other Tory/Lib Dem seats will also do that.
I'm pretty sceptical about MRPs but can see the theory.
Savanta: Labour 516 Tories 53 Lib Dems 50 SNP 8 Plaid 4 Reform 0
And yet in another sense pretty consistent in the most important respect.
I do think Reform will win a couple of seats this time, but they could fall into the UKIP trap of mass support to get lots of votes but not clustering enough to win any.
The SNP seem all over the place though.
Yup, SNP is extremely sensitive to changes in Labour's fortunes. A lot of central belt that could tip one way or the other depending on a few votes here and there.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
I know someone who was a captain in the Royal Engineers who defused IED’s in Iraq. He has PTSD. He doesn’t talk about it much. Prefers to talk about his kids. And his dog come to that. The contrast with you, your war tourism and your “SAS” mate is fucking embarrassing.
My SAS mate gave me the best gossip. Which I shall only hand on to PBers brighter and more interesting than you
He also told me he was phoned by a *UK military friend* “somewhere on the Ukraine front line yesterday”
These are my friend’s friend’s words:
“Mate. Total madness out here. We’ve got drones and lasers and missiles, we’ve got everything now. You won’t believe it. We’re killing Russians by the hundreds every day.” Pause. “It’s brilliant.”
Who else brings you vivid commentary like this? No-one
Savanta: Labour 516 Tories 53 Lib Dems 50 SNP 8 Plaid 4 Reform 0
And yet in another sense pretty consistent in the most important respect.
I do think Reform will win a couple of seats this time, but they could fall into the UKIP trap of mass support to get lots of votes but not clustering enough to win any.
The SNP seem all over the place though.
The only way REF get above about 10 seats (and some of those would be really close run things) is if there’s a huge shift in Tory voters over to Reform. As in, we know the Tories will lose, we’d rather Farage, let’s just all move across. As I’ve said before it’s hard to see what would prompt that unless something big cuts through, and I suspect the last thing that could really do that is an endorsement from the Tory press.
I think they’ll get 2-3. 5 as per the MRP is not completely out of the question. 6-10 probably the limit on a great night, unless we see mass Tory exodus.
Badenoch does seem to enjoy support from a few of the higher minded types on the right like Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. I imagine Leon would like Giles Coren's verdict on Braverman/Patel as a bit mediocre.
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
Cynic within me thinks it suits the Telegraph narrative to make their readers think that a Labour supermajority is on the way, but also that Reform have 0 seats, and they also have a big article talking about Badenoch being very likely to be the next leader based on their MRP.
The combination of the above is about the most convincing ‘Vote Tory anyway!’ combination you could give.
Not implying anything against the people at Savanta here of course
Savanta: Labour 516 Tories 53 Lib Dems 50 SNP 8 Plaid 4 Reform 0
And yet in another sense pretty consistent in the most important respect.
I do think Reform will win a couple of seats this time, but they could fall into the UKIP trap of mass support to get lots of votes but not clustering enough to win any.
The SNP seem all over the place though.
Between these two MRPs Labour seats vary by 21%; Con by 103% LD by 33% SNP by 250% RefUK by #DIV/0! % (and as we all know #DIV/0! is a big number)
The new YouGov gives a Gillingham and Rainham score of Lab 38, Tory 30. The Economist constituency poll (small) gives Labour 55, Tory 23. Make of it what you will, but they are on different planets. I make of it not to bet on the Tories winning a lot of seats. G and R is unchanged boundaries.
Fascinating study with young adult volunteers who hadn't previously had Covid. An unprecedented look in terms of detailed response to infection.
Human SARS-CoV-2 challenge uncovers local and systemic response dynamics https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07575-x The COVID-19 pandemic is an ongoing global health threat, yet our understanding of the dynamics of early cellular responses to this disease remains limited1. Here in our SARS-CoV-2 human challenge study, we used single-cell multi-omics profiling of nasopharyngeal swabs and blood to temporally resolve abortive, transient and sustained infections in seronegative individuals challenged with pre-Alpha SARS-CoV-2. Our analyses revealed rapid changes in cell-type proportions and dozens of highly dynamic cellular response states in epithelial and immune cells associated with specific time points and infection status. We observed that the interferon response in blood preceded the nasopharyngeal response. Moreover, nasopharyngeal immune infiltration occurred early in samples from individuals with only transient infection and later in samples from individuals with sustained infection. High expression of HLA-DQA2 before inoculation was associated with preventing sustained infection. Ciliated cells showed multiple immune responses and were most permissive for viral replication, whereas nasopharyngeal T cells and macrophages were infected non-productively. We resolved 54 T cell states, including acutely activated T cells that clonally expanded while carrying convergent SARS-CoV-2 motifs. Our new computational pipeline Cell2TCR identifies activated antigen-responding T cells based on a gene expression signature and clusters these into clonotype groups and motifs. Overall, our detailed time series data can serve as a Rosetta stone for epithelial and immune cell responses and reveals early dynamic responses associated with protection against infection...
Savanta: Labour 516 Tories 53 Lib Dems 50 SNP 8 Plaid 4 Reform 0
And yet in another sense pretty consistent in the most important respect.
I do think Reform will win a couple of seats this time, but they could fall into the UKIP trap of mass support to get lots of votes but not clustering enough to win any.
The SNP seem all over the place though.
I think that that is wildly pessimistic for them. I would expect at least 18 and more likely low 20s. Some of that will be at the cost of the Tories rather than Labour though.
I have quite a few contacts in Wantage and Didcot (Nick you will be aware because of the help you gave me on one of my campaigns which involved a lot of people from that area).
So here is some feedback from someone who lives there who is not political but who is interested in who gets elected because of the campaign (does not care who as long as they do a good job for our cause).
Leaflet count:
LD - lost count of how many Tory - 0 Labour - 0 Reform - 0 SDP (yep there is one) - 1 Green - 0
Comments
That said, I think that's an entirely plausible result.
Con 18
REF 19
There are various potential justifications for abandoning net zero targets - e.g. you believe that new technology with solve the problem, or you don't believe in spending money now for the benefit of future generations - but abandoning them simply because you don't understand why they are needed is just f*****g ridiculous. I'm no fan of the Tories, but least their policies have a nodding acquaintance with reality.
Unless its because the Post Office bit has cut through for Davey.
I'd be curious to see an inanimate tub of lard against Rishi Sunak. My vote would be the inanimate tub of lard would make a better PM.
Con 42 (-17)
Lab 33. (+24)
Ref 7
LD 6 (-15)
Green 6 (I think, I've misplaced the link, sorry)
JEWISH VOTERS KLAXON
Ah! Link here https://x.com/lmharpin/status/1803436526585381266?s=19
Jezza (not named) 1%
So definitely closer to the actual result
https://www.thejc.com/news/politics/ex-board-of-deputies-president-marie-van-der-zyl-joins-labour-mxsgeqlz
Con 32%
Ref 31%
Lab 29%
LD 5%
Grn 3%
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49809-second-yougov-2024-election-mrp-shows-conservatives-on-lowest-seat-total-in-history
Lab 3 points from winning the Tories' safest seat in the country.
CON up 6
Ref down 4
Footnote: If you gave a lot of weight to the small number of constituency polling (see Gillingham and Rainham recently) it calls into question a whole lot of data, and is not good news for Tories.
Timing? My SAS mate gave me the best gossip. Which I shall only hand on to PBers brighter and more interesting than you
He also told me he was phoned by a *UK military friend* “somewhere on the Ukraine front line yesterday”
These are my friend’s friend’s words:
“Mate. Total madness out here. We’ve got drones and lasers and missiles, we’ve got everything now. You won’t believe it. We’re killing Russians by the hundreds every day.” Pause. “It’s brilliant.”
Who else brings you vivid commentary like this? No-one
Now, the Reform share has gone up since then, mainly at the Tories' expense, the election is impending, concentrating minds, and my memory could be wrong. But even so, Reform withdrawing in this election (unlike 2019, when Brexit was on the line), would be unlikely to boost the Tories much at all.
They constantly talk about ‘10 year mandate for national renewal’ and similar phrases. Much easier to do that from 500 seats, gives you a better foundation for 2029
LD 46%
Con 29%
I guess Labour would be on 55% and heading for a 500 seat majority were JC leader?
The previous YouGov MRP was:
Lab 43, Con 25, Ref 10 (Fieldwork 24 May to 1 June)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
Penny Mordaunt loses by 37% to 34%.
Lab 35%
Con 35%
And the fact that the Reform VI is coming more from Tory can't be dismissed easily. One would have to believe that they'd be more likely to go back to Tory than across to Labour. The Tory-Ref movers likely consist of the weirdos who think the Tories are too soft. Hard to see them thinking Labour would be a better bet for their warped views.
Which man was he talking about ?
Lab: -4%
Con: -3%
Ref: +5%
LD: +1%
Green: No change
SNP: No change
Others: +1%
YouGov:
Labour: 425 (+223)
Conservative: 108 (-257)
Lib Dem: 67 (+56)
SNP: 20 (-28)
Reform UK: 5 (+5)
Plaid: 4 (±0)
Green: 2 (+1)
Savanta:
Labour 516
Tories 53
Lib Dems 50
SNP 8
Plaid 4
Reform 0
He may need a drink
Sadly it does not appear to be so, though it does make me wonder if it was one of the stories in there.
The Fabmeister the hair apparent.
As for the MIC one . What a total waste of time , money and effort .
It would be sad to see Mordaunt lose her seat , I just can’t dislike her so hope she holds on there .
I trust the YouGov ones a little more because of track record (very good in 2017 IIRC, a bit patchy in 2019 but fairly decent). But either way someone’s going to be waaaaay out when the results are counted on 4th.
I do think Reform will win a couple of seats this time, but they could fall into the UKIP trap of mass support to get lots of votes but not clustering enough to win any.
The SNP seem all over the place though.
I wonder if the war will just dribble away into nothing. Not even an armistice. Just mutual exhaustion - for a while
Especially if Farage's arrival has put the local Tories into disarray, given some will undoubtedly wish they were campaigning for Farage.
I believe the YouGov one kicks off with a reminder of what the participant's constituency is, and asks about their vote in that constituency. It does that a load of times in a load of places. Then, it's essentially predicting what everyone else will do based on the degree of similarity they have with each poll respondent in a number of respects including, crucially, whether they are in a similar constituency.
So if a load of generally Labour-inclined people in Tory/Lib Dem seats say "Well, since you ask me what I'll do in Honiton specifically... I'll vote Lib Dem" then it supposes others like them in other Tory/Lib Dem seats will also do that.
I'm pretty sceptical about MRPs but can see the theory.
I’ve named my SAS friend before: it’s this guy
https://www.hurstpublishers.com/event/high-risk-a-true-story-of-the-sas-drugs-and-other-bad-behaviour-w-ben-timberlake/
He’s the only guy I’ve ever met with a life story as mad as mine. It’s him me and d’Annunzio
I think they’ll get 2-3. 5 as per the MRP is not completely out of the question. 6-10 probably the limit on a great night, unless we see mass Tory exodus.
NEW THREAD
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a05xU5Am8s
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties
b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying
c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
The combination of the above is about the most convincing ‘Vote Tory anyway!’ combination you could give.
Not implying anything against the people at Savanta here of course
Con by 103%
LD by 33%
SNP by 250%
RefUK by #DIV/0! %
(and as we all know #DIV/0! is a big number)
An unprecedented look in terms of detailed response to infection.
Human SARS-CoV-2 challenge uncovers local and systemic response dynamics
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07575-x
The COVID-19 pandemic is an ongoing global health threat, yet our understanding of the dynamics of early cellular responses to this disease remains limited1. Here in our SARS-CoV-2 human challenge study, we used single-cell multi-omics profiling of nasopharyngeal swabs and blood to temporally resolve abortive, transient and sustained infections in seronegative individuals challenged with pre-Alpha SARS-CoV-2. Our analyses revealed rapid changes in cell-type proportions and dozens of highly dynamic cellular response states in epithelial and immune cells associated with specific time points and infection status. We observed that the interferon response in blood preceded the nasopharyngeal response. Moreover, nasopharyngeal immune infiltration occurred early in samples from individuals with only transient infection and later in samples from individuals with sustained infection. High expression of HLA-DQA2 before inoculation was associated with preventing sustained infection. Ciliated cells showed multiple immune responses and were most permissive for viral replication, whereas nasopharyngeal T cells and macrophages were infected non-productively. We resolved 54 T cell states, including acutely activated T cells that clonally expanded while carrying convergent SARS-CoV-2 motifs. Our new computational pipeline Cell2TCR identifies activated antigen-responding T cells based on a gene expression signature and clusters these into clonotype groups and motifs. Overall, our detailed time series data can serve as a Rosetta stone for epithelial and immune cell responses and reveals early dynamic responses associated with protection against infection...
I have quite a few contacts in Wantage and Didcot (Nick you will be aware because of the help you gave me on one of my campaigns which involved a lot of people from that area).
So here is some feedback from someone who lives there who is not political but who is interested in who gets elected because of the campaign (does not care who as long as they do a good job for our cause).
Leaflet count:
LD - lost count of how many
Tory - 0
Labour - 0
Reform - 0
SDP (yep there is one) - 1
Green - 0