Every MRP is giving different results, but it would be interesting to average them all out and see if that approximates the final result, a bit like using polling averages with normal polls.
I was initially dismissive but then, well, why not? It would certainly be interesting.
Just an experiment really. Might not come to anything.
It would appear that I now have interviews with BBC and Sky News lined up tomorrow…
I know we often disagree, but good luck in both the interviews and the election. The thought of being interviewed is enough, by itself, to put me off being a prospective MP!
The Clacton poll is also very much in line with the January poll 'With Farage standing', with a small additional Farage boost on top of 5 points. I think it might be near the mark
This is also great news, as it provides a big incentive for either storage and/or HVDC interconnects with other EU countries.
We're getting much closer to the point where market forces take over from subsidies.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czkkgnp1d2xo ..behind this success story, there are concerns within the electricity industry caused by an imbalance between supply and demand with, at times, a surplus of electricity.
Even though the Spanish economy has bounced back strongly from the trauma of the Covid pandemic, and is growing faster than all of the bloc’s other big economies, electricity consumption has been dropping in recent years.
Last year, demand for electricity was even below that seen in the pandemic year 2020, and the lowest since 2003.
"What we saw until 2005 was that when GDP increased, demand for electricity increased more than GDP," says Miguel de la Torre Rodríguez, head of system development at Red Eléctrica (REE), the company that operates Spain's national grid.
More recently, he says, "we've seen that demand has increased less than GDP. What we're seeing is a decoupling of energy intensity from the economy".
There are several reasons for the recent drop in demand. They include the energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which caused businesses and homes across Europe to cut back on usage.
Also, energy efficiency has improved and become more commonplace.
The increased usage of renewable energy has also contributed to the reduction in demand for electricity from the national grid.
Mr Rodríguez says that during daylight hours, when solar energy output is particularly strong, the supply-demand balance can be pushed out of kilter, having an impact on prices.
"Since the power system always has to have an equilibrium – demand has to equal generation – that has meant there has been excess generation during those hours," he says.
"That has driven prices down, especially during certain hours, when the prices have been zero or even negative."..
Another data point suggesting climate sensitivity to CO2 levels is quite a bit higher than the model we're basing policy on.
Continuous sterane and phytane δ13C record reveals a substantial pCO2 decline since the mid-Miocene https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47676-9 Constraining the relationship between temperature and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (pCO2) is essential to model near-future climate. Here, we reconstruct pCO2 values over the past 15 million years (Myr), providing a series of analogues for possible near-future temperatures and pCO2, from a single continuous site (DSDP Site 467, California coast). We reconstruct pCO2 values using sterane and phytane, compounds that many phytoplankton produce and then become fossilised in sediment. From 15.0-0.3 Myr ago, our reconstructed pCO2 values steadily decline from 650 ± 150 to 280 ± 75 ppmv, mirroring global temperature decline. Using our new range of pCO2 values, we calculate average Earth system sensitivity and equilibrium climate sensitivity, resulting in 13.9 °C and 7.2 °C per doubling of pCO2, respectively. These values are significantly higher than IPCC global warming estimations, consistent or higher than some recent state-of-the-art climate models, and consistent with other proxy-based estimates...
If my vague understanding of that lot is correct, it looks like more warming is baked in as we're now at the CO2 levels of ~ 10 million years ago or so.
We need to litter the planet with CCUS plants quickly, IMHO, and use carbon taxes to pay for it. Create a market.
Only credible way to do it IMHO.
I didn't have you down as a CCS fan, CR. Welcome on board!
David Herdson is correct. If Reform is plainly the rising party (and both Farage and Reform have better favourability ratings than Sunak and the Conservatives), many party activists will go over to them - because there would be no point to the Conservatives, any longer.
This needs a longer look. This is in one sense the SDP of our days - a major party having a substantial bit of its base taken by others. And the SDP failed, which is a warning.
But, and this won't change, Reform is populist, the SDP wasn't. The problem with populism is that it is popular but it doesn't work, and it isn't true. Most people know that there aren't simple answers to complex questions - enough to keep two parties that are more or less usually for grown ups in business.
People are assessed and reckon themselves by the company they keep. There are insufficient red trousered swivel eyed loons to man the party nationally, not is there the semblance of a front bench with more than one member, and he has never had to be accountable for anything; and he would not survive genuine scrutiny for 10 minutes.
Don't bet on the disappearance of the Tories. They have 15,000,000 potential voters (not in 2024 though), assets, structure and history.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
No. But I don't believe you go in there to 'report on the situation'. You don't. I see no chats with the everyman on the street; no insight. All I see is "Phwah! Look at the pretty girls!"
As for your last sentence. Fuck off, Seriously. I know you find it impossible to hold down relationships, but most other people - and posters - do. You might want to consider why that is before you shit over other people's relationships.
It's jealousy, I guess.
(And anyway, we don't have Ocado.... )
Well said JJ.
I’ve tried to be understanding today given his problematic upbringing, addiction to heroin, relationship breakdowns and estrangement from his children (not to mention the dubious seductions of girls of questionable age) but really this guy brings nothing any more to this forum except dislike from every quarter.
I really do not understand why @TSE and @rcs1000 put up with his trolling and flaming. It’s not about embracing a wide range of perspectives. He just insults everybody in the most vile and personally abusive ways.
This forum will come to an end if he’s not disciplined. Just a prediction. Like Putin and the Russian trolls, as well as his latest pin-ups Donald Trump and Nigel Farage, it’s what they want: disruption. And that’s clearly his aim: to disrupt this forum.
Another data point suggesting climate sensitivity to CO2 levels is quite a bit higher than the model we're basing policy on.
Continuous sterane and phytane δ13C record reveals a substantial pCO2 decline since the mid-Miocene https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47676-9 Constraining the relationship between temperature and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (pCO2) is essential to model near-future climate. Here, we reconstruct pCO2 values over the past 15 million years (Myr), providing a series of analogues for possible near-future temperatures and pCO2, from a single continuous site (DSDP Site 467, California coast). We reconstruct pCO2 values using sterane and phytane, compounds that many phytoplankton produce and then become fossilised in sediment. From 15.0-0.3 Myr ago, our reconstructed pCO2 values steadily decline from 650 ± 150 to 280 ± 75 ppmv, mirroring global temperature decline. Using our new range of pCO2 values, we calculate average Earth system sensitivity and equilibrium climate sensitivity, resulting in 13.9 °C and 7.2 °C per doubling of pCO2, respectively. These values are significantly higher than IPCC global warming estimations, consistent or higher than some recent state-of-the-art climate models, and consistent with other proxy-based estimates...
If my vague understanding of that lot is correct, it looks like more warming is baked in as we're now at the CO2 levels of ~ 10 million years ago or so.
We need to litter the planet with CCUS plants quickly, IMHO, and use carbon taxes to pay for it. Create a market.
Only credible way to do it IMHO.
I didn't have you down as a CCS fan, CR. Welcome on board!
Like Thatcher, serious Conservatives take the environment seriously.
Tory government from 2010 to 2024 worse than any other in postwar history, says study by leading experts
… Sir Anthony Seldon, arguably Britain’s leading contemporary political historian, is publishing a collection of essays written by prominent academics and other experts and they have analysed the record of the Conservative government from 2010 to 2024, looking at what it has achieved in every area of policy.
… It describes this as the worst government in postwar history:
‘In comparison to the earlier four periods of one-party dominance post-1945, it is hard to see the years since 2010 as anything but disappointing. By 2024, Britain’s standing in the world was lower, the union was less strong, the country less equal, the population less well protected, growth more sluggish with the outlook poor, public services underperforming and largely unreformed, while respect for the institutions of the British state, including the civil service, judiciary and the police, was lower, as it was for external bodies, including the universities and the BBC, repeatedly attacked not least by government, ministers and right-wing commentators…
‘Do the unusually high number of external shocks to some extent let the governments off the hook? One above all – Brexit – was entirely of its own making and will be seen in history as the defining decision of these years. In 2024, the verdict on Brexit is almost entirely negative, with those who are suffering the most from it, as sceptics at the time predicted, the most vulnerable. The nation was certainly difficult to rule in these fourteen years, the Conservative party still more so…
‘Overall, it is hard to find a comparable period in history of the Conservatives which achieved so little, or which left the country at its conclusion in a more troubling state.’
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
No. But I don't believe you go in there to 'report on the situation'. You don't. I see no chats with the everyman on the street; no insight. All I see is "Phwah! Look at the pretty girls!"
As for your last sentence. Fuck off, Seriously. I know you find it impossible to hold down relationships, but most other people - and posters - do. You might want to consider why that is before you shit over other people's relationships.
It's jealousy, I guess.
(And anyway, we don't have Ocado.... )
Well said JJ.
I’ve tried to be understanding today given his problematic upbringing, addiction to heroin, relationship breakdowns and estrangement from his children (not to mention the dubious seductions of girls of questionable age) but really this guy brings nothing any more to this forum except dislike from every quarter.
I really do not understand why @TSE and @rcs1000 put up with his trolling and flaming. It’s not about embracing a wide range of perspectives. He just insults everybody in the most vile and personally abusive ways.
This forum will come to an end if he’s not disciplined. Just a prediction. Like Putin and the Russian trolls, as well as his latest pin-ups Donald Trump and Nigel Farage, it’s what they want: disruption. And that’s clearly his aim: to disrupt this forum.
I think he livens the place up. He's offensive and he's provocative, but without people like that, it's just a bunch of middle managers, accountants and retirees debating which centrist dad position is most centrist.
So long as he doesn't break any rules, what's the harm?
In 2019 (adjusted for new boundaries) this went Con 60% Lab 20% LD 15%.
So normally supersafe Con and even now they ought to hold it. It's about their 60th safest seat. But they might not if their vote really is in meltdown and the 'anti Con' vote goes substantially to either Lab or LD rather than splitting fairly equally like last time.
Took a look at the betting and it has it as a Con/Lab marginal with RUK at 33s and the LDs out at 100 or even 150.
Why is that LD price so big? Do people somehow know that Lab not LD will be the vehicle for the tactical vote even though they were quite close last time?
This morning's PO witness was an 80 year old former executive talking about things that happened in 1998. Shows why the whole inquiry should have happened a lot earlier than it has.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
No. But I don't believe you go in there to 'report on the situation'. You don't. I see no chats with the everyman on the street; no insight. All I see is "Phwah! Look at the pretty girls!"
As for your last sentence. Fuck off, Seriously. I know you find it impossible to hold down relationships, but most other people - and posters - do. You might want to consider why that is before you shit over other people's relationships.
It's jealousy, I guess.
(And anyway, we don't have Ocado.... )
Well said JJ.
I’ve tried to be understanding today given his problematic upbringing, addiction to heroin, relationship breakdowns and estrangement from his children (not to mention the dubious seductions of girls of questionable age) but really this guy brings nothing any more to this forum except dislike from every quarter.
I really do not understand why @TSE and @rcs1000 put up with his trolling and flaming. It’s not about embracing a wide range of perspectives. He just insults everybody in the most vile and personally abusive ways.
This forum will come to an end if he’s not disciplined. Just a prediction. Like Putin and the Russian trolls, as well as his latest pin-ups Donald Trump and Nigel Farage, it’s what they want: disruption. And that’s clearly his aim: to disrupt this forum.
I think he livens the place up. He's offensive and he's provocative, but without people like that, it's just a bunch of middle managers, accountants and retirees debating which centrist dad position is most centrist.
So long as he doesn't break any rules, what's the harm?
Plus he's funny. There's a reason the jester was an important position at court.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
No. But I don't believe you go in there to 'report on the situation'. You don't. I see no chats with the everyman on the street; no insight. All I see is "Phwah! Look at the pretty girls!"
As for your last sentence. Fuck off, Seriously. I know you find it impossible to hold down relationships, but most other people - and posters - do. You might want to consider why that is before you shit over other people's relationships.
It's jealousy, I guess.
(And anyway, we don't have Ocado.... )
Well said JJ.
I’ve tried to be understanding today given his problematic upbringing, addiction to heroin, relationship breakdowns and estrangement from his children (not to mention the dubious seductions of girls of questionable age) but really this guy brings nothing any more to this forum except dislike from every quarter.
I really do not understand why @TSE and @rcs1000 put up with his trolling and flaming. It’s not about embracing a wide range of perspectives. He just insults everybody in the most vile and personally abusive ways.
This forum will come to an end if he’s not disciplined. Just a prediction. Like Putin and the Russian trolls, as well as his latest pin-ups Donald Trump and Nigel Farage, it’s what they want: disruption. And that’s clearly his aim: to disrupt this forum.
I think he livens the place up. He's offensive and he's provocative, but without people like that, it's just a bunch of middle managers, accountants and retirees debating which centrist dad position is most centrist.
So long as he doesn't break any rules, what's the harm?
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
No. But I don't believe you go in there to 'report on the situation'. You don't. I see no chats with the everyman on the street; no insight. All I see is "Phwah! Look at the pretty girls!"
As for your last sentence. Fuck off, Seriously. I know you find it impossible to hold down relationships, but most other people - and posters - do. You might want to consider why that is before you shit over other people's relationships.
It's jealousy, I guess.
(And anyway, we don't have Ocado.... )
Well said JJ.
I’ve tried to be understanding today given his problematic upbringing, addiction to heroin, relationship breakdowns and estrangement from his children (not to mention the dubious seductions of girls of questionable age) but really this guy brings nothing any more to this forum except dislike from every quarter.
I really do not understand why @TSE and @rcs1000 put up with his trolling and flaming. It’s not about embracing a wide range of perspectives. He just insults everybody in the most vile and personally abusive ways.
This forum will come to an end if he’s not disciplined. Just a prediction. Like Putin and the Russian trolls, as well as his latest pin-ups Donald Trump and Nigel Farage, it’s what they want: disruption. And that’s clearly his aim: to disrupt this forum.
Yesterday I wrote about the Conservative Party had forgotten it needed to be a broad church.
This is another example of the need to be a broad church. And the bar for banning people is a high one.
@Leon can be abusive, and is often sin binned for it. But he also gets shit well above his abuse level, because he espouses political views different to - say - me.
Ultimately, you don't need to read @Leon's (or my) posts. You can see the name at the top of the comment and move on.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
No. But I don't believe you go in there to 'report on the situation'. You don't. I see no chats with the everyman on the street; no insight. All I see is "Phwah! Look at the pretty girls!"
As for your last sentence. Fuck off, Seriously. I know you find it impossible to hold down relationships, but most other people - and posters - do. You might want to consider why that is before you shit over other people's relationships.
It's jealousy, I guess.
(And anyway, we don't have Ocado.... )
Well said JJ.
I’ve tried to be understanding today given his problematic upbringing, addiction to heroin, relationship breakdowns and estrangement from his children (not to mention the dubious seductions of girls of questionable age) but really this guy brings nothing any more to this forum except dislike from every quarter.
I really do not understand why @TSE and @rcs1000 put up with his trolling and flaming. It’s not about embracing a wide range of perspectives. He just insults everybody in the most vile and personally abusive ways.
This forum will come to an end if he’s not disciplined. Just a prediction. Like Putin and the Russian trolls, as well as his latest pin-ups Donald Trump and Nigel Farage, it’s what they want: disruption. And that’s clearly his aim: to disrupt this forum.
I think he livens the place up. He's offensive and he's provocative, but without people like that, it's just a bunch of middle managers, accountants and retirees debating which centrist dad position is most centrist.
So long as he doesn't break any rules, what's the harm?
He's been Leon around for a long time (and been regularly "disciplined"), and PB has done just fine.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
No. But I don't believe you go in there to 'report on the situation'. You don't. I see no chats with the everyman on the street; no insight. All I see is "Phwah! Look at the pretty girls!"
As for your last sentence. Fuck off, Seriously. I know you find it impossible to hold down relationships, but most other people - and posters - do. You might want to consider why that is before you shit over other people's relationships.
It's jealousy, I guess.
(And anyway, we don't have Ocado.... )
Well said JJ.
I’ve tried to be understanding today given his problematic upbringing, addiction to heroin, relationship breakdowns and estrangement from his children (not to mention the dubious seductions of girls of questionable age) but really this guy brings nothing any more to this forum except dislike from every quarter.
I really do not understand why @TSE and @rcs1000 put up with his trolling and flaming. It’s not about embracing a wide range of perspectives. He just insults everybody in the most vile and personally abusive ways.
This forum will come to an end if he’s not disciplined. Just a prediction. Like Putin and the Russian trolls, as well as his latest pin-ups Donald Trump and Nigel Farage, it’s what they want: disruption. And that’s clearly his aim: to disrupt this forum.
Yesterday I wrote about the Conservative Party had forgotten it needed to be a broad church.
This is another example of the need to be a broad church. And the bar for banning people is a high one.
@Leon can be abusive, and is often sin binned for it. But he also gets shit well above his abuse level, because he espouses political views different to - say - me.
Ultimately, you don't need to read @Leon's (or my) posts. You can see the name at the top of the comment and move on.
I like Heathener and think PB would be worse off without her but she does seem to have a real issue with Leon who really seems to get under her skin.
I have taken 14 pollsters who are currently polling at least weekly and calculated an average for the weeks ending 31 May, 7 June and 14 June.
The 14 June average (with movement from 31 May) is C 21.2% (-3.1%) L 42.0% (-2.6%) R 14.7% (+3.5%) LD 10.8% (+1.6%) G 5.9% (+0.3%) SNP 2.7% (+0.1%)
So both Conservatives and Labour are down, but the gap has increased. Reform and Lib Dems both up. Broadly looks like a shift from Conservatives to Reform and Labour to Lib Dems (which supports @TimS view that it is a movement within voting blocks rather than between them).
Pollsters: Focaldata, We Think, Opinium, Techne, YouGov, Whitestone Insight, BMG, More in Common, Lord Ashcroft, Redfield & Wilton, Survation, Savanta, JL Partners and Deltapoll. Other pollsters are available and I have not included any MRP polls.
On topic, utterly terrible polling numbers for Sunak. In every way.
Looks like the centre-right vote may cleave entirely in two.
He could have offered Farage a free run in 150 seats the Tories would never have won anyway in return for not standing in the others.
Well, here's the thing. That couldn't contain any existing Conservative seats, because there you'd have candidates, etc.
So, what would be in it for Reform? How many Labour seats, if the Conservatives stepped aside, would there be any chance of victory in? Next to none.
Farage has rolled the dice. He's hoping that - at the very least - he can win a couple of MPs. And that it's possible that he will overcome the odds and outpoll the Conservatives and become the official Right Wing opposition.
For what it's worth, I suspect that Reform will suffer from UKIP 2015 and Alliance 1983 syndrome: i.e. poorly distributed vote. They benefit from - in a multi-party world - the vote level needed to win a seat being lower, but they will still suffer from lots of 12-25% constituency vote shares, none of which are quite enough to win a seat.
Now, that could change and they could overtake the Conservatives in the national opinion polls, (and I suggested PBers took the 13s on Betfair Exchange on that). But that's still an outside shot. Most likely Reform wins in Ashfield and Clacton... and piles up votes in efficiently elsewhere.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Shouldn't journalists visit the places they're writing about, not just do it from home based on second-hand reports?
Do these people really think they're doing themselves, or their cause, any good?
"Yeah, you know, I was one of the people who desecrated Stonehenge..."
I can't think of any object less likely to suffer lasting damage. Much the best thing they concentrate their efforts there and leave art galleries alone.
On topic, utterly terrible polling numbers for Sunak. In every way.
Looks like the centre-right vote may cleave entirely in two.
Rolf Harris would likely score better than Rishi Sunak as best PM.
I've never seen anything like it.
You seem to have lost your mojo today. Until now you were fighting a spirited rearguard action against all-comers. The polling gap was just as bad. What’s changed?
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
No. But I don't believe you go in there to 'report on the situation'. You don't. I see no chats with the everyman on the street; no insight. All I see is "Phwah! Look at the pretty girls!"
As for your last sentence. Fuck off, Seriously. I know you find it impossible to hold down relationships, but most other people - and posters - do. You might want to consider why that is before you shit over other people's relationships.
It's jealousy, I guess.
(And anyway, we don't have Ocado.... )
Well said JJ.
I’ve tried to be understanding today given his problematic upbringing, addiction to heroin, relationship breakdowns and estrangement from his children (not to mention the dubious seductions of girls of questionable age) but really this guy brings nothing any more to this forum except dislike from every quarter.
I really do not understand why @TSE and @rcs1000 put up with his trolling and flaming. It’s not about embracing a wide range of perspectives. He just insults everybody in the most vile and personally abusive ways.
This forum will come to an end if he’s not disciplined. Just a prediction. Like Putin and the Russian trolls, as well as his latest pin-ups Donald Trump and Nigel Farage, it’s what they want: disruption. And that’s clearly his aim: to disrupt this forum.
Yesterday I wrote about the Conservative Party had forgotten it needed to be a broad church.
This is another example of the need to be a broad church. And the bar for banning people is a high one.
@Leon can be abusive, and is often sin binned for it. But he also gets shit well above his abuse level, because he espouses political views different to - say - me.
Ultimately, you don't need to read @Leon's (or my) posts. You can see the name at the top of the comment and move on.
Just to follow up on this: while you don't *need* to read my posts, there will be a quiz to check that you have all understood what I have written. Those of you who fail it will be exiled to Conservative Home.
This is also great news, as it provides a big incentive for either storage and/or HVDC interconnects with other EU countries.
We're getting much closer to the point where market forces take over from subsidies.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czkkgnp1d2xo ..behind this success story, there are concerns within the electricity industry caused by an imbalance between supply and demand with, at times, a surplus of electricity.
Even though the Spanish economy has bounced back strongly from the trauma of the Covid pandemic, and is growing faster than all of the bloc’s other big economies, electricity consumption has been dropping in recent years.
Last year, demand for electricity was even below that seen in the pandemic year 2020, and the lowest since 2003.
"What we saw until 2005 was that when GDP increased, demand for electricity increased more than GDP," says Miguel de la Torre Rodríguez, head of system development at Red Eléctrica (REE), the company that operates Spain's national grid.
More recently, he says, "we've seen that demand has increased less than GDP. What we're seeing is a decoupling of energy intensity from the economy".
There are several reasons for the recent drop in demand. They include the energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which caused businesses and homes across Europe to cut back on usage.
Also, energy efficiency has improved and become more commonplace.
The increased usage of renewable energy has also contributed to the reduction in demand for electricity from the national grid.
Mr Rodríguez says that during daylight hours, when solar energy output is particularly strong, the supply-demand balance can be pushed out of kilter, having an impact on prices.
"Since the power system always has to have an equilibrium – demand has to equal generation – that has meant there has been excess generation during those hours," he says.
"That has driven prices down, especially during certain hours, when the prices have been zero or even negative."..
Noting that a lot of our replacement technology is more efficient I'll wildly speculate that energy use should scale with a growing economy. Might this be a good way of spotting productive* vs non-productive growth?
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
No. But I don't believe you go in there to 'report on the situation'. You don't. I see no chats with the everyman on the street; no insight. All I see is "Phwah! Look at the pretty girls!"
As for your last sentence. Fuck off, Seriously. I know you find it impossible to hold down relationships, but most other people - and posters - do. You might want to consider why that is before you shit over other people's relationships.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
No. But I don't believe you go in there to 'report on the situation'. You don't. I see no chats with the everyman on the street; no insight. All I see is "Phwah! Look at the pretty girls!"
As for your last sentence. Fuck off, Seriously. I know you find it impossible to hold down relationships, but most other people - and posters - do. You might want to consider why that is before you shit over other people's relationships.
It's jealousy, I guess.
(And anyway, we don't have Ocado.... )
Well said JJ.
I’ve tried to be understanding today given his problematic upbringing, addiction to heroin, relationship breakdowns and estrangement from his children (not to mention the dubious seductions of girls of questionable age) but really this guy brings nothing any more to this forum except dislike from every quarter.
I really do not understand why @TSE and @rcs1000 put up with his trolling and flaming. It’s not about embracing a wide range of perspectives. He just insults everybody in the most vile and personally abusive ways.
This forum will come to an end if he’s not disciplined. Just a prediction. Like Putin and the Russian trolls, as well as his latest pin-ups Donald Trump and Nigel Farage, it’s what they want: disruption. And that’s clearly his aim: to disrupt this forum.
Yesterday I wrote about the Conservative Party had forgotten it needed to be a broad church.
This is another example of the need to be a broad church. And the bar for banning people is a high one.
@Leon can be abusive, and is often sin binned for it. But he also gets shit well above his abuse level, because he espouses political views different to - say - me.
Ultimately, you don't need to read @Leon's (or my) posts. You can see the name at the top of the comment and move on.
I shall say no more because it’s your forum but I suspect if you had a female on the staff you wouldn’t tolerate it.
I couldn’t care a less about his politics. It’s the constant flaming, trolling, narcissism, and personal abuse to everyone that’s incredibly off-putting unless you like a bear pit environment. It is, in short, a very men-only club at the moment.
It’s not a problem to me but I won't stick around after the election.
Enough. Back to the politics and the first of two MRPs incoming.
On topic, utterly terrible polling numbers for Sunak. In every way.
Looks like the centre-right vote may cleave entirely in two.
Rolf Harris would likely score better than Rishi Sunak as best PM.
I've never seen anything like it.
You seem to have lost your mojo today. Until now you were fighting a spirited rearguard action against all-comers. The polling gap was just as bad. What’s changed?
Do these people really think they're doing themselves, or their cause, any good?
"Yeah, you know, I was one of the people who desecrated Stonehenge..."
I can't think of any object less likely to suffer lasting damage. Much the best thing they concentrate their efforts there and leave art galleries alone.
The concern is going to be the porosity of the stone, and if the 'paint' is liquid or dust. Sarsen is pretty heavily silicified so I hope all is well. But many stones can and will stain. The last time I found a poilitical party stand outside a relative's house and (without permission) sticking their posters onto the sandstone with blu-tack I made them remove them at once because the gunge and the oil can transfer.
Do these people really think they're doing themselves, or their cause, any good?
"Yeah, you know, I was one of the people who desecrated Stonehenge..."
I can't think of any object less likely to suffer lasting damage. Much the best thing they concentrate their efforts there and leave art galleries alone.
I fear that's a misreading of the stones. From the article:
""They are sensitive and they are completely covered in prehistoric markings which remain to be fully studied and any surface damage to the stones is hugely concerning.
“A rich garden of life has grow on the megaliths, an exceptional lichen garden has grown. So it’s potentially quite concerning.”"
(As it happens, I'm not a fan of the Disneyificaiton of Stonehenge. To borrow @Leon's phrase, EH have removed all NOOM from the stones. Avebury is much better in every way; more so many of the smaller circles. But that does not excuse what these people did.)
Every MRP is giving different results, but it would be interesting to average them all out and see if that approximates the final result, a bit like using polling averages with normal polls.
This site appears to be doing that - it says they're taking a simple average of the MRPs.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
I know someone who was a captain in the Royal Engineers who defused IED’s in Iraq. He has PTSD. He doesn’t talk about it much. Prefers to talk about his kids. And his dog come to that. The contrast with you, your war tourism and your “SAS” mate is fucking embarrassing.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
No. But I don't believe you go in there to 'report on the situation'. You don't. I see no chats with the everyman on the street; no insight. All I see is "Phwah! Look at the pretty girls!"
As for your last sentence. Fuck off, Seriously. I know you find it impossible to hold down relationships, but most other people - and posters - do. You might want to consider why that is before you shit over other people's relationships.
It's jealousy, I guess.
(And anyway, we don't have Ocado.... )
Well said JJ.
I’ve tried to be understanding today given his problematic upbringing, addiction to heroin, relationship breakdowns and estrangement from his children (not to mention the dubious seductions of girls of questionable age) but really this guy brings nothing any more to this forum except dislike from every quarter.
I really do not understand why @TSE and @rcs1000 put up with his trolling and flaming. It’s not about embracing a wide range of perspectives. He just insults everybody in the most vile and personally abusive ways.
This forum will come to an end if he’s not disciplined. Just a prediction. Like Putin and the Russian trolls, as well as his latest pin-ups Donald Trump and Nigel Farage, it’s what they want: disruption. And that’s clearly his aim: to disrupt this forum.
Yesterday I wrote about the Conservative Party had forgotten it needed to be a broad church.
This is another example of the need to be a broad church. And the bar for banning people is a high one.
@Leon can be abusive, and is often sin binned for it. But he also gets shit well above his abuse level, because he espouses political views different to - say - me.
Ultimately, you don't need to read @Leon's (or my) posts. You can see the name at the top of the comment and move on.
Just to follow up on this: while you don't *need* to read my posts, there will be a quiz to check that you have all understood what I have written. Those of you who fail it will be exiled to Conservative Home.
Every MRP is giving different results, but it would be interesting to average them all out and see if that approximates the final result, a bit like using polling averages with normal polls.
This site appears to be doing that - it says they're taking a simple average of the MRPs.
It's as if they looked back at the Tony Blair demon eyes ads from 1997 and thought "we need to do that sort of thing again even though it didn't work".
@RochdalePioneers I see you are doing a cracking job of ensuring your competition is nobbled. Two more to go. Just remember if the Tory/SNP candidate falls under a steam roller the election is deferred and you don't win by default.
I was interested if this was actually true (spoiler: it is, well unless it's a very light steam roller) and for anyone else who may be the rules on death during the campaign can be found here. They're rather biased against independents tbh.
Very different to the US where notoriously dead people have been voted into power before.
Here it's just the self-effacing dead ?
The best premier of the Soviet Union was quite possibly dead for his entire tenure.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
I know someone who was a captain in the Royal Engineers who defused IED’s in Iraq. He has PTSD. He doesn’t talk about it much. Prefers to talk about his kids. And his dog come to that. The contrast with you, your war tourism and your “SAS” mate is fucking embarrassing.
PB's Rubin could take a man out with just one punch but he never did like to talk about it all that much. "It's my work" he'd say, "and I do it for pay. And when it's over I'd just as soon go on my way" ...
It's as if they looked back at the Tony Blair demon eyes ads from 1997 and thought "we need to do that sort of thing again even though it didn't work".
Hey. It got them 160 seats. Maybe they need to bring it back, I suspect they’d take that right now.
It's as if they looked back at the Tony Blair demon eyes ads from 1997 and thought "we need to do that sort of thing again even though it didn't work".
Demon eyes was bad. But it became Iconic. The latest effort from the Conservatives is just terrible and forgettable. I am not even sure what it is trying to say. It’s hardly Miliband in Salmond’s top pocket.
Comments
You are much braver than me...
2024 global solar installations of 600-660 GW will be 40%-50% higher than the previous 2023 record.
https://x.com/johnrhanger/status/1803390432052650193
This is also great news, as it provides a big incentive for either storage and/or HVDC interconnects with other EU countries.
We're getting much closer to the point where market forces take over from subsidies.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czkkgnp1d2xo
..behind this success story, there are concerns within the electricity industry caused by an imbalance between supply and demand with, at times, a surplus of electricity.
Even though the Spanish economy has bounced back strongly from the trauma of the Covid pandemic, and is growing faster than all of the bloc’s other big economies, electricity consumption has been dropping in recent years.
Last year, demand for electricity was even below that seen in the pandemic year 2020, and the lowest since 2003.
"What we saw until 2005 was that when GDP increased, demand for electricity increased more than GDP," says Miguel de la Torre Rodríguez, head of system development at Red Eléctrica (REE), the company that operates Spain's national grid.
More recently, he says, "we've seen that demand has increased less than GDP. What we're seeing is a decoupling of energy intensity from the economy".
There are several reasons for the recent drop in demand. They include the energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which caused businesses and homes across Europe to cut back on usage.
Also, energy efficiency has improved and become more commonplace.
The increased usage of renewable energy has also contributed to the reduction in demand for electricity from the national grid.
Mr Rodríguez says that during daylight hours, when solar energy output is particularly strong, the supply-demand balance can be pushed out of kilter, having an impact on prices.
"Since the power system always has to have an equilibrium – demand has to equal generation – that has meant there has been excess generation during those hours," he says.
"That has driven prices down, especially during certain hours, when the prices have been zero or even negative."..
But, and this won't change, Reform is populist, the SDP wasn't. The problem with populism is that it is popular but it doesn't work, and it isn't true. Most people know that there aren't simple answers to complex questions - enough to keep two parties that are more or less usually for grown ups in business.
People are assessed and reckon themselves by the company they keep. There are insufficient red trousered swivel eyed loons to man the party nationally, not is there the semblance of a front bench with more than one member, and he has never had to be accountable for anything; and he would not survive genuine scrutiny for 10 minutes.
Don't bet on the disappearance of the Tories. They have 15,000,000 potential voters (not in 2024 though), assets, structure and history.
I’ve tried to be understanding today given his problematic upbringing, addiction to heroin, relationship breakdowns and estrangement from his children (not to mention the dubious seductions of girls of questionable age) but really this guy brings nothing any more to this forum except dislike from every quarter.
I really do not understand why @TSE and @rcs1000 put up with his trolling and flaming. It’s not about embracing a wide range of perspectives. He just insults everybody in the most vile and personally abusive ways.
This forum will come to an end if he’s not disciplined. Just a prediction. Like Putin and the Russian trolls, as well as his latest pin-ups Donald Trump and Nigel Farage, it’s what they want: disruption. And that’s clearly his aim: to disrupt this forum.
Something only we'd get. Subtle.
Tory government from 2010 to 2024 worse than any other in postwar history, says study by leading experts
… Sir Anthony Seldon, arguably Britain’s leading contemporary political historian, is publishing a collection of essays written by prominent academics and other experts and they have analysed the record of the Conservative government from 2010 to 2024, looking at what it has achieved in every area of policy.
… It describes this as the worst government in postwar history:
‘In comparison to the earlier four periods of one-party dominance post-1945, it is hard to see the years since 2010 as anything but disappointing. By 2024, Britain’s standing in the world was lower, the union was less strong, the country less equal, the population less well protected, growth more sluggish with the outlook poor, public services underperforming and largely unreformed, while respect for the institutions of the British state, including the civil service, judiciary and the police, was lower, as it was for external bodies, including the universities and the BBC, repeatedly attacked not least by government, ministers and right-wing commentators…
‘Do the unusually high number of external shocks to some extent let the governments off the hook? One above all – Brexit – was entirely of its own making and will be seen in history as the defining decision of these years. In 2024, the verdict on Brexit is almost entirely negative, with those who are suffering the most from it, as sceptics at the time predicted, the most vulnerable. The nation was certainly difficult to rule in these fourteen years, the Conservative party still more so…
‘Overall, it is hard to find a comparable period in history of the Conservatives which achieved so little, or which left the country at its conclusion in a more troubling state.’
So long as he doesn't break any rules, what's the harm?
In 2019 (adjusted for new boundaries) this went Con 60% Lab 20% LD 15%.
So normally supersafe Con and even now they ought to hold it. It's about their 60th safest seat. But they might not if their vote really is in meltdown and the 'anti Con' vote goes substantially to either Lab or LD rather than splitting fairly equally like last time.
Took a look at the betting and it has it as a Con/Lab marginal with RUK at 33s and the LDs out at 100 or even 150.
Why is that LD price so big? Do people somehow know that Lab not LD will be the vehicle for the tactical vote even though they were quite close last time?
Looks like the centre-right vote may cleave entirely in two.
Dutch salute.
Similar relationship as Labour to Co-op party
This is another example of the need to be a broad church. And the bar for banning people is a high one.
@Leon can be abusive, and is often sin binned for it. But he also gets shit well above his abuse level, because he espouses political views different to - say - me.
Ultimately, you don't need to read @Leon's (or my) posts. You can see the name at the top of the comment and move on.
41% Lab
21% Con
?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw44mdee0zzo
Do these people really think they're doing themselves, or their cause, any good?
"Yeah, you know, I was one of the people who desecrated Stonehenge..."
Your advice is good. Just ignore.
The 14 June average (with movement from 31 May) is
C 21.2% (-3.1%)
L 42.0% (-2.6%)
R 14.7% (+3.5%)
LD 10.8% (+1.6%)
G 5.9% (+0.3%)
SNP 2.7% (+0.1%)
So both Conservatives and Labour are down, but the gap has increased.
Reform and Lib Dems both up.
Broadly looks like a shift from Conservatives to Reform and Labour to Lib Dems (which supports @TimS view that it is a movement within voting blocks rather than between them).
Pollsters: Focaldata, We Think, Opinium, Techne, YouGov, Whitestone Insight, BMG, More in Common, Lord Ashcroft, Redfield & Wilton, Survation, Savanta, JL Partners and Deltapoll. Other pollsters are available and I have not included any MRP polls.
It's shite.
So, what would be in it for Reform? How many Labour seats, if the Conservatives stepped aside, would there be any chance of victory in? Next to none.
Farage has rolled the dice. He's hoping that - at the very least - he can win a couple of MPs. And that it's possible that he will overcome the odds and outpoll the Conservatives and become the official Right Wing opposition.
For what it's worth, I suspect that Reform will suffer from UKIP 2015 and Alliance 1983 syndrome: i.e. poorly distributed vote. They benefit from - in a multi-party world - the vote level needed to win a seat being lower, but they will still suffer from lots of 12-25% constituency vote shares, none of which are quite enough to win a seat.
Now, that could change and they could overtake the Conservatives in the national opinion polls, (and I suggested PBers took the 13s on Betfair Exchange on that). But that's still an outside shot. Most likely Reform wins in Ashfield and Clacton... and piles up votes in efficiently elsewhere.
You might say there's only one OGH but it'd be a great homage.
Other Coward, that biographical novel featuring Noël’s brother.
*Physically doing stuff
https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1803078114345353658
I couldn’t care a less about his politics. It’s the constant flaming, trolling, narcissism, and personal abuse to everyone that’s incredibly off-putting unless you like a bear pit environment. It is, in short, a very men-only club at the moment.
It’s not a problem to me but I won't stick around after the election.
Enough. Back to the politics and the first of two MRPs incoming.
xx
It should be "would".
Since they'll never be in a position to (irrespective of the decent case for replacing it by funding from general taxation).
"Sir John Curtice is offering 120 seats or you can take your chance with the box"
https://www.scotlibdems.org.uk/about-us/our-candidates/ian-bailey
https://x.com/conservatives/status/1803364858022281700
NEW Constituency Poll in Clacton
REF 42% (new)
CON 27% (-45)
LAB 24% (+8)
GRE 5% (+2)
LD 2% (-4)
OTH 1% (-2)
F/w 11th - 13th June. Changes vs. Notional 2019 result
https://x.com/Survation/status/1803438162468807155
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East.
Probably thought it would give him two bites of the cherry,
Presumably in this case one of the interns said "My cousin does web design"...
""They are sensitive and they are completely covered in prehistoric markings which remain to be fully studied and any surface damage to the stones is hugely concerning.
“A rich garden of life has grow on the megaliths, an exceptional lichen garden has grown. So it’s potentially quite concerning.”"
(As it happens, I'm not a fan of the Disneyificaiton of Stonehenge. To borrow @Leon's phrase, EH have removed all NOOM from the stones. Avebury is much better in every way; more so many of the smaller circles. But that does not excuse what these people did.)
https://stopthetories.vote/parl/bristol-central
https://stopthetories.vote/parl/clacton
Not sure how useful it is, as some of the MRPs are giving wildly different results, so averages may just make the whole thing more inaccurate.
Honestly, Yougov should poll Sunak against people like Rolf Harris, Rosemary West, and Paul Gadd.
I always thought the TV adaptation lost a bit of the book's ambiguity in that Ashley was clearly so much cooler than Verity from episode 1.
https://x.com/74frankfurt/status/1588801640152317954
Reform UK will reject the influence of the World Economic Forum and cancel Britain's membership of it.
https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1803428288867557852