It's as if they looked back at the Tony Blair demon eyes ads from 1997 and thought "we need to do that sort of thing again even though it didn't work".
Demon eyes was bad. But it became Iconic. The latest effort from the Conservatives is just terrible and forgettable. I am not even sure what it is trying to say. It’s hardly Miliband in Salmond’s top pocket.
If all those dead Iraqis could speak they would say the demon eyes poster low balled it.
It's as if they looked back at the Tony Blair demon eyes ads from 1997 and thought "we need to do that sort of thing again even though it didn't work".
Another cracking game at the Euros. Croatia 2-2 Albania.
It’s amazing watching these matches with the speed of play. The premier league is usually like that, hurly burly chaos and speed and yet whenever England play, even though 90% of the team play fast football week in, week out, it’s always slow, side to side passing, back passes.
I always wonder if there is some weird thing in the England set up where they just show the England team old matches from Mexico 86 etc where all the teams used to just pass it around and hope for a break.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
No. But I don't believe you go in there to 'report on the situation'. You don't. I see no chats with the everyman on the street; no insight. All I see is "Phwah! Look at the pretty girls!"
As for your last sentence. Fuck off, Seriously. I know you find it impossible to hold down relationships, but most other people - and posters - do. You might want to consider why that is before you shit over other people's relationships.
It's jealousy, I guess.
(And anyway, we don't have Ocado.... )
Well said JJ.
I’ve tried to be understanding today given his problematic upbringing, addiction to heroin, relationship breakdowns and estrangement from his children (not to mention the dubious seductions of girls of questionable age) but really this guy brings nothing any more to this forum except dislike from every quarter.
I really do not understand why @TSE and @rcs1000 put up with his trolling and flaming. It’s not about embracing a wide range of perspectives. He just insults everybody in the most vile and personally abusive ways.
This forum will come to an end if he’s not disciplined. Just a prediction. Like Putin and the Russian trolls, as well as his latest pin-ups Donald Trump and Nigel Farage, it’s what they want: disruption. And that’s clearly his aim: to disrupt this forum.
Bollocks. There have been thousands of @SeanTs on the forum long before you arrived.
Not much has changed, apart from a turn over to different thousands of @SeanTs.
It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
What are the major shifts in this version of the model?
🔴🟡 More of the marginal seats in Scotland are projected to break for Labour from the SNP.
🟠🔵The Liberal Democrats are making bigger gains from the Tories in Oxfordshire, Somerset & Surrey in particular
🔵🔴 The Tories doing a bit better in holding against Labour in some parts of the South East and Outer London. But are doing worse everywhere else than last time losing more seats to Labour in the Midlands in particular.
🚨Our latest @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP is out now. It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
0 for Reform? The pollsters are very very wide apart…
It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
What are the major shifts in this version of the model?
🔴🟡 More of the marginal seats in Scotland are projected to break for Labour from the SNP.
🟠🔵The Liberal Democrats are making bigger gains from the Tories in Oxfordshire, Somerset & Surrey in particular
🔵🔴 The Tories doing a bit better in holding against Labour in some parts of the South East and Outer London. But are doing worse everywhere else than last time losing more seats to Labour in the Midlands in particular.
It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
What are the major shifts in this version of the model?
🔴🟡 More of the marginal seats in Scotland are projected to break for Labour from the SNP.
🟠🔵The Liberal Democrats are making bigger gains from the Tories in Oxfordshire, Somerset & Surrey in particular
🔵🔴 The Tories doing a bit better in holding against Labour in some parts of the South East and Outer London. But are doing worse everywhere else than last time losing more seats to Labour in the Midlands in particular.
🟣 We have a longer fieldwork range, we think this has advantages and are confident that isn’t causing major distortions among most parties but specifically means we may not be capturing all of Reform’s recent rise in the polls in seats with high profile candidates.
🗡️ We have 111 seats that are within 5 points. If the Tories lose all of the marginal seats we project them holding right now they would end up close to just 100 seats, if they won them all they could hit 200
Just got my “Kier Starmer wants you to vote Reform” scare leaflet from the Tories
Keir Starmer wants you to watch the Euros, might be nearer the mark. According to The Rest is Entertainment, the story of this election is that no-one is paying attention. Starmer's underwhelming grilling by Nick Robinson clashed with the football and went largely without notice.
18.3 million people watched the England game. That is 3 out of every 4 viewers.
🚨Our latest @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP is out now. It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
0 for Reform? The pollsters are very very wide apart…
These figures look more likely than some of the other MRPs.
In our final model to be released the week of the election we will have more targeted work to address the challenges of support for smaller parties, so i'd wait till then on those parties though it will always be harder with an MRP. I wouldn't read much into Reform/Green figures
🚨Our latest @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP is out now. It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
0 for Reform? The pollsters are very very wide apart…
These figures look more likely than some of the other MRPs.
I personally think that Reform is *likely* to get 2 seats: Ashfield and Clacton.
But even there, there is risk. What if Labour and LibDem supporters vote tactically for the Conservatives? If so, then even getting 40-45% in those seats might not be enough to win.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
I know someone who was a captain in the Royal Engineers who defused IED’s in Iraq. He has PTSD. He doesn’t talk about it much. Prefers to talk about his kids. And his dog come to that. The contrast with you, your war tourism and your “SAS” mate is fucking embarrassing.
He went to Odessa, which while I feel for the citizens there ( and I know someone who lives there), it is, thankfully, not yet the frontline. If he were to visit Kharkiv or alternatively parts of the Gaza strip I would be rather more impressed at his bravery. Frankly, he is probably safer there than he would be on a night out in Stockton-on-Tees.
Leon is a narcissist. It is probably why he likes Trump Farage and Johnson. He sees something of himself in them, even though he lacks any significant material success. I still find him repulsively funny sometimes though. His boasting is legendary and while his putdowns are not nearly as effective as mine, they can be sometimes amusing. The site would be poorer without him IMO.
It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
What are the major shifts in this version of the model?
🔴🟡 More of the marginal seats in Scotland are projected to break for Labour from the SNP.
🟠🔵The Liberal Democrats are making bigger gains from the Tories in Oxfordshire, Somerset & Surrey in particular
🔵🔴 The Tories doing a bit better in holding against Labour in some parts of the South East and Outer London. But are doing worse everywhere else than last time losing more seats to Labour in the Midlands in particular.
It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
What are the major shifts in this version of the model?
🔴🟡 More of the marginal seats in Scotland are projected to break for Labour from the SNP.
🟠🔵The Liberal Democrats are making bigger gains from the Tories in Oxfordshire, Somerset & Surrey in particular
🔵🔴 The Tories doing a bit better in holding against Labour in some parts of the South East and Outer London. But are doing worse everywhere else than last time losing more seats to Labour in the Midlands in particular.
🟣 We have a longer fieldwork range, we think this has advantages and are confident that isn’t causing major distortions among most parties but specifically means we may not be capturing all of Reform’s recent rise in the polls in seats with high profile candidates.
🗡️ We have 111 seats that are within 5 points. If the Tories lose all of the marginal seats we project them holding right now they would end up close to just 100 seats, if they won them all they could hit 200
I assume that Reform caveat is saying “good chance Farage could win Clacton” and the second one saying “if reform take significant share in the marginals then the Tories are on life support.”
It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
What are the major shifts in this version of the model?
🔴🟡 More of the marginal seats in Scotland are projected to break for Labour from the SNP.
🟠🔵The Liberal Democrats are making bigger gains from the Tories in Oxfordshire, Somerset & Surrey in particular
🔵🔴 The Tories doing a bit better in holding against Labour in some parts of the South East and Outer London. But are doing worse everywhere else than last time losing more seats to Labour in the Midlands in particular.
That looks very much like the result I'm expecting (although a fraction high on Tory seats. Maybe 10 of those go elsewhere due to Reform splitting the vote.)
It's as if they looked back at the Tony Blair demon eyes ads from 1997 and thought "we need to do that sort of thing again even though it didn't work".
But it worked ! The polls got closer during the 1997 campaign.
David Herdson is correct. If Reform is plainly the rising party (and both Farage and Reform have better favourability ratings than Sunak and the Conservatives), many party activists will go over to them - because there would be no point to the Conservatives, any longer.
This needs a longer look. This is in one sense the SDP of our days - a major party having a substantial bit of its base taken by others. And the SDP failed, which is a warning.
But, and this won't change, Reform is populist, the SDP wasn't. The problem with populism is that it is popular but it doesn't work, and it isn't true. Most people know that there aren't simple answers to complex questions - enough to keep two parties that are more or less usually for grown ups in business.
People are assessed and reckon themselves by the company they keep. There are insufficient red trousered swivel eyed loons to man the party nationally, not is there the semblance of a front bench with more than one member, and he has never had to be accountable for anything; and he would not survive genuine scrutiny for 10 minutes.
Don't bet on the disappearance of the Tories. They have 15,000,000 potential voters (not in 2024 though), assets, structure and history.
Not to mention that RefUK will attract the more extreme votes away from the Conservatives, which is either an opportunity or a problem for Nigel Farage. If there are no extremists left in the Conservative Party, does that mean its centrist rump will be less likely to work with Farage because his politics are anathema to them, or more likely because they will need him?
Well, this is why I loathe Farage. You see, he know the WEF is not like the UN. He knows there are no dues. It's just a conference and a research department. (And an amazing opportunity to ski the slopes of Davos and Klosters with no crowds!)
So, he's either lying because that message appeals to his supporters. Or he's genuinely ignorant, in which case it doesn't say much for his intellectual curiosity about the world.
In our final model to be released the week of the election we will have more targeted work to address the challenges of support for smaller parties, so i'd wait till then on those parties though it will always be harder with an MRP. I wouldn't read much into Reform/Green figures
A huge, huge determinant of the Tory seat total is the Reform figures!
Why do they even publish these if they’re willingly admitting that it might be incomplete?
Similarly with yesterday’s IPSOS poll which just ignored Corbyn in Islington North and the Ashfield Independents for Ashfield. Make a manual adjustment if you need to, it is surely better than leaving gaping obvious holes in the picture?
Proscribe it and arrest any British citizen who attends.
Bad news for the likes of me who is heading off to Davos in 2025.
I've been to Davos. However, unlike the WEF crowd, I had the good sense to visit in summer. We saw red squirrels, deer and crested tits in the nearby woods.
Well, this is why I loathe Farage. You see, he know the WEF is not like the UN. He knows there are no dues. It's just a conference and a research department. (And an amazing opportunity to ski the slopes of Davos and Klosters with no crowds!)
So, he's either lying because that message appeals to his supporters. Or he's genuinely ignorant, in which case it doesn't say much for his intellectual curiosity about the world.
He's a few tweets from accusing George Soros of working for the Nazis.
Proscribe it and arrest any British citizen who attends.
Bad news for the likes of me who is heading off to Davos in 2025.
I've been to Davos. However, unlike the WEF crowd, I had the good sense to visit in summer. We saw red squirrels, deer and crested tits in the nearby woods.
You would see a lot of tits if you visited in winter too.
Headline VI from the MiC is 44 28 with Reform on 8, LD 11, Green 5
What is behind the Tory / Reform giant disparities between pollsters?
Much more realistic. Much more in line with actual election results. Tories within touching distance of 30%, and my £50 bet safe. Much as it pains me in other ways.
I suspect the vast majority of leavers thought/think that the Council of Europe and the European Court of Human Rights are part of the EU.
Farage won't care that they can't cancel the membership; it is enough to say he will, to keep his followers masturbating about reducing the influence of bloody foreigners.
This morning's PO witness was an 80 year old former executive talking about things that happened in 1998. Shows why the whole inquiry should have happened a lot earlier than it has.
Proscribe it and arrest any British citizen who attends.
Bad news for the likes of me who is heading off to Davos in 2025.
I've been to Davos. However, unlike the WEF crowd, I had the good sense to visit in summer. We saw red squirrels, deer and crested tits in the nearby woods.
You would see a lot of tits if you visited in winter too.
🚨Our latest @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP is out now. It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
0 for Reform? The pollsters are very very wide apart…
These figures look more likely than some of the other MRPs.
I personally think that Reform is *likely* to get 2 seats: Ashfield and Clacton.
But even there, there is risk. What if Labour and LibDem supporters vote tactically for the Conservatives? If so, then even getting 40-45% in those seats might not be enough to win.
I think the single most likely option for Reform is one seat, but only just versus the poss. of two seats.
🚨Our latest @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP is out now. It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
0 for Reform? The pollsters are very very wide apart…
Apparently a lot of the fieldwork for this was done before Farage announced he was standing and before Sunak's D-Day exit, so I am not sure how much value there is in it.
It's in the manifesto, but the abolition of the BBC is not, nor is what replaces the licence fee to fund it.
The policy is for people with lower cognitive aptitude who want the BBC (snooker, Wimbledon, MOTD, Gardener's World, royal occasions, Radio 2, stuff), would hate to have to subscribe like to Sky and things, would also hate abolition but don't want to say so, and don't want to think about how it is paid for.
Just got my “Kier Starmer wants you to vote Reform” scare leaflet from the Tories
Keir Starmer wants you to watch the Euros, might be nearer the mark. According to The Rest is Entertainment, the story of this election is that no-one is paying attention. Starmer's underwhelming grilling by Nick Robinson clashed with the football and went largely without notice.
18.3 million people watched the England game. That is 3 out of every 4 viewers.
Makes it even more ludicrous Sunak called the election when he did. Given he knew (or should have known) the Tories needed a real gamechanger to get a halfway respectable result and with the exception of a truly epic scandal or some sort of act of God, that could only ever happen in a campaign that was people's main focus.
Proscribe it and arrest any British citizen who attends.
Bad news for the likes of me who is heading off to Davos in 2025.
I've been to Davos. However, unlike the WEF crowd, I had the good sense to visit in summer. We saw red squirrels, deer and crested tits in the nearby woods.
You would see a lot of tits if you visited in winter too.
The weather would be a bit rough around the nipples, surely?
Mrs Starmer has made an appearance. At Westminster magistrates’ court, giving evidence against three morons who decided to set up camp outside her house to protest Israel.
🚨Our latest @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP is out now. It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
0 for Reform? The pollsters are very very wide apart…
Apparently a lot of the fieldwork for this was done before Farage announced he was standing and before Sunak's D-Day exit, so I am not sure how much value there is in it.
What's the point of modern technology/online panels if they can't conduct a poll quickly? Back in 1992 they were able to go from data collection to publication in just a few days IIRC.
🚨Our latest @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP is out now. It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
0 for Reform? The pollsters are very very wide apart…
Apparently a lot of the fieldwork for this was done before Farage announced he was standing and before Sunak's D-Day exit, so I am not sure how much value there is in it.
They weight more recent responses more highly, though.
Do these people really think they're doing themselves, or their cause, any good?
"Yeah, you know, I was one of the people who desecrated Stonehenge..."
The press should just collectively agree not to report on any single Just Stop Oil protest like this. They’d quickly get the message.
They're such wankers
They are all rather pathetic, and usually rather well off.
Although the Stonehenge we see now is a modern recreation. Turner painted it a couple of centuries ago for a better reflection of what was there before the airfield, the road etc.
Proscribe it and arrest any British citizen who attends.
Bad news for the likes of me who is heading off to Davos in 2025.
I've been to Davos. However, unlike the WEF crowd, I had the good sense to visit in summer. We saw red squirrels, deer and crested tits in the nearby woods.
It’s funny that Nigel doesn’t want others to be able to go to Davos and enjoy European tits when he has had Irish and German wives and now a French partner. Hypocrite.
There's been a lot of focus on Reform, but the challenge from the Greens and Galloway's lot + independents could also throw up some unusual results. Pollsters who aren't taking account of the different parts of the Labour coalition may be overstating their support.
🚨Our latest @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP is out now. It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
0 for Reform? The pollsters are very very wide apart…
Apparently a lot of the fieldwork for this was done before Farage announced he was standing and before Sunak's D-Day exit, so I am not sure how much value there is in it.
That's a shockingly slow turnaround of fieldwork data this close to a GE.
I was talking to a colleague from Spain. In Spain, there used to be 2 big parties, a Tory-like one and a Labour-like one. Then, there was a period of change: the rise of Podemos and Ciudadnos, etc. All was chaotic. Some years later, however, and things have settled down to 2 big parties, the same as before, a Tory-like one and a Labour-like one.
I mention this because we're in a period of change, with one of our 2 big parties collapsing. Maybe it will lead to some fundamental shift in British politics, as in the 1930s. But maybe it won't. Maybe in 10 years time, we'll have Labour and the Tories as the two big parties.
Proscribe it and arrest any British citizen who attends.
Bad news for the likes of me who is heading off to Davos in 2025.
I've been to Davos. However, unlike the WEF crowd, I had the good sense to visit in summer. We saw red squirrels, deer and crested tits in the nearby woods.
It’s funny that Nigel doesn’t want others to be able to go to Davos and enjoy European tits when he has had Irish and German wives and now a French partner. Hypocrite.
As absurd as it is, I don’t think the policy is to stop all Britons travelling to Davos.
🚨Our latest @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP is out now. It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
0 for Reform? The pollsters are very very wide apart…
Apparently a lot of the fieldwork for this was done before Farage announced he was standing and before Sunak's D-Day exit, so I am not sure how much value there is in it.
They weight more recent responses more highly, though.
Implied vote shares are:
Lab 44% Con 28% Lib Dem 11% Reform 8% Green 5% SNP 3%
Compared to other polls, that seems toppy for Labour, very high for the Tories and very low for Reform.
🚨Our latest @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP is out now. It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
0 for Reform? The pollsters are very very wide apart…
Apparently a lot of the fieldwork for this was done before Farage announced he was standing and before Sunak's D-Day exit, so I am not sure how much value there is in it.
They weight more recent responses more highly, though.
Implied vote shares are:
Lab 44% Con 28% Lib Dem 11% Reform 8% Green 5% SNP 3%
Compared to other polls, that seems toppy for Labour, very high for the Tories and very low for Reform.
All the MRP polls are placing the Conservatives notably higher, and Reform notably lower, than the standard polls
🚨Our latest @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP is out now. It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
0 for Reform? The pollsters are very very wide apart…
Apparently a lot of the fieldwork for this was done before Farage announced he was standing and before Sunak's D-Day exit, so I am not sure how much value there is in it.
They weight more recent responses more highly, though.
Implied vote shares are:
Lab 44% Con 28% Lib Dem 11% Reform 8% Green 5% SNP 3%
Compared to other polls, that seems toppy for Labour, very high for the Tories and very low for Reform.
That 28% is the Tories' best for a long time. But the low Reform share looks unlikely, as already discussed possibly due to old data.
There's been a lot of focus on Reform, but the challenge from the Greens and Galloway's lot + independents could also throw up some unusual results. Pollsters who aren't taking account of the different parts of the Labour coalition may be overstating their support.
The greens will fade closer to the election like coloured cornflour on a neolithic monument in a rain storm.
Verian become the third pollster to take Labour into the 30s, 40 is looking a good benchmark now. Verian use the same method as IPSOS MRP for selecting panellists. It's all looking fairly steady though at around a 20 lead
🚨Our latest @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP is out now. It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
0 for Reform? The pollsters are very very wide apart…
Well, this is why I loathe Farage. You see, he know the WEF is not like the UN. He knows there are no dues. It's just a conference and a research department. (And an amazing opportunity to ski the slopes of Davos and Klosters with no crowds!)
So, he's either lying because that message appeals to his supporters. Or he's genuinely ignorant, in which case it doesn't say much for his intellectual curiosity about the world.
He's a few tweets from accusing George Soros of working for the Nazis.
The WEF thing in the manifesto is one of the nods to QAnon conspiracy tropes. Another is the reference to vaccination deaths, others are the studied silences on Trump, Ukraine, Russia, Putin. China, Israel.
Soros, Gates and especially Rothschild don't get a walk on part either, but they do as soon as you talk to the QAnon branch of the Reform voters. I had an earful last week from one.
Farage never ever allows himself an unqualified criticism, however slight, of Trump. When he concurs with such a point made by an interviewer, he immediately moderates it. His R4 interview this week (with Webb IIRC) was a gem.
There's been a lot of focus on Reform, but the challenge from the Greens and Galloway's lot + independents could also throw up some unusual results. Pollsters who aren't taking account of the different parts of the Labour coalition may be overstating their support.
The greens will fade closer to the election like coloured cornflour on a neolithic monument in a rain storm.
Agree. I was intending to vote Green but now back to Labour (I always waver between the two).
Example of the difference between MRPS: this new one has Gavin Williamson in a 46/46 dead heat with Labour in his new seat, whereas the previous one had him winning fairly easily by 50% to 35%.
🚨Our latest @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP is out now. It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
0 for Reform? The pollsters are very very wide apart…
Apparently a lot of the fieldwork for this was done before Farage announced he was standing and before Sunak's D-Day exit, so I am not sure how much value there is in it.
Thought it was conducted 12th to 14th of June Sunak D Day Exit was before that wasnt it?
🚨Our latest @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP is out now. It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
0 for Reform? The pollsters are very very wide apart…
Apparently a lot of the fieldwork for this was done before Farage announced he was standing and before Sunak's D-Day exit, so I am not sure how much value there is in it.
That's a shockingly slow turnaround of fieldwork data this close to a GE.
MiC say its deliberate to try and iron out any bumps in the campaign but acknowledge it means they may well be undercooking Reforms surge, although they imply I think its overdone a bit anyway (or seem to be in the write up to me)
I’m just glad for Nigel that reform have been consistently outpolling the Tories since he declared they are now the official opposition to Labour otherwise he would look like an utterly hubristic prick which isn’t the Nige we know and love.
Verian become the third pollster to take Labour into the 30s, 40 is looking a good benchmark now. Verian use the same method as IPSOS MRP for selecting panellists. It's all looking fairly steady though at around a 20 lead
The Lab moving to LD trend that we're seeing is probably simply people becoming more focused on their local constituency as the election approaches.
I don't think it's any coincidence, that these moves are happening as pollsters start showing virtual polling cards that accurately reflect voters actual choices in their constituency.
And I think this is simple bad news for the Conservatives, with Labour supporters going LD in constituencies where they are the main challenger.
There's been a lot of focus on Reform, but the challenge from the Greens and Galloway's lot + independents could also throw up some unusual results. Pollsters who aren't taking account of the different parts of the Labour coalition may be overstating their support.
How are they not taking account of that? They're polling. Respondents can say WPB or Green or independent. Not that many respondents do, not compared to RefUK supporters.
It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
What are the major shifts in this version of the model?
🔴🟡 More of the marginal seats in Scotland are projected to break for Labour from the SNP.
🟠🔵The Liberal Democrats are making bigger gains from the Tories in Oxfordshire, Somerset & Surrey in particular
🔵🔴 The Tories doing a bit better in holding against Labour in some parts of the South East and Outer London. But are doing worse everywhere else than last time losing more seats to Labour in the Midlands in particular.
This feels like it would be a great result for the Tories.
Hands bitten off in Downing Street. Richi goes, but he won't care much. Tories have enough to rebuild, labour have a decent majority for (probably) two terms.
🚨Our latest @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP is out now. It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
0 for Reform? The pollsters are very very wide apart…
Apparently a lot of the fieldwork for this was done before Farage announced he was standing and before Sunak's D-Day exit, so I am not sure how much value there is in it.
Thought it was conducted 12th to 14th of June Sunak D Day Exit was before that wasnt it?
Actually it wasnt data collected between May 22 and June 17, which includes the period before Mr Farage announced his decision to stand in the sea
I was talking to a colleague from Spain. In Spain, there used to be 2 big parties, a Tory-like one and a Labour-like one. Then, there was a period of change: the rise of Podemos and Ciudadnos, etc. All was chaotic. Some years later, however, and things have settled down to 2 big parties, the same as before, a Tory-like one and a Labour-like one.
I mention this because we're in a period of change, with one of our 2 big parties collapsing. Maybe it will lead to some fundamental shift in British politics, as in the 1930s. But maybe it won't. Maybe in 10 years time, we'll have Labour and the Tories as the two big parties.
There are two parties in Spain that can lead a coalition government - PP and PSOE - but the days when either could win a majority or even govern alone are probably gone. Vox on the far right and Sumar/Podemos on the far left are still important (Sumar is part of the current government), then there are the regional parties. But Spain does have a different electoral system (PR, region by region, not national) and that makes it easier for parties to appear, rise and then fall again.
Comments
I always wonder if there is some weird thing in the England set up where they just show the England team old matches from Mexico 86 etc where all the teams used to just pass it around and hope for a break.
Not much has changed, apart from a turn over to different thousands of @SeanTs.
They have the impact you give them.
It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat.
🔴Lab 406 (+204)
🔵Con 155 (-210)
🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38)
🟡SNP 18 (-30)
🟢Plaid 2 (-2)
🟩Green 1 (-)
Changes on 2019 actuals.
What are the major shifts in this version of the model?
🔴🟡 More of the marginal seats in Scotland are projected to break for Labour from the SNP.
🟠🔵The Liberal Democrats are making bigger gains from the Tories in Oxfordshire, Somerset & Surrey in particular
🔵🔴 The Tories doing a bit better in holding against Labour in some parts of the South East and Outer London. But are doing worse everywhere else than last time losing more seats to Labour in the Midlands in particular.
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1803442656955244861
🚨Our latest @Moreincommon_ @TheNewsAgents MRP is out now.
It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat.
🔴Lab 406 (+204)
🔵Con 155 (-210)
🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38)
🟡SNP 18 (-30)
🟢Plaid 2 (-2)
🟩Green 1 (-)
Changes on 2019 actuals.
0 for Reform? The pollsters are very very wide apart…
https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1800902177759842581
Seems like a crap way of running a poll
🗡️ We have 111 seats that are within 5 points. If the Tories lose all of the marginal seats we project them holding right now they would end up close to just 100 seats, if they won them all they could hit 200
18.3 million people watched the England game. That is 3 out of every 4 viewers.
Might cause some fun odds fluctuations over the next hour though!
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1803444345766285598
But even there, there is risk. What if Labour and LibDem supporters vote tactically for the Conservatives? If so, then even getting 40-45% in those seats might not be enough to win.
Leon is a narcissist. It is probably why he likes Trump Farage and Johnson. He sees something of himself in them, even though he lacks any significant material success. I still find him repulsively funny sometimes though. His boasting is legendary and while his putdowns are not nearly as effective as mine, they can be sometimes amusing. The site would be poorer without him IMO.
I know this because the candidate was OGH.
@joelwilliams74
New Verian random sample panel poll (scores v this time last week):
Lab 39 (-2)
Cons 21 (+1)
Reform 13 (-2)
LD 13 (+2)
Green 7 (-1)
SNP 3 (-)
Others 4 (+1) "
https://x.com/joelwilliams74/status/1803444470672744606
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/19/zia-yusuf-muslim-entrepreneur-gives-donation-to-reform/
Granted they were a pair of Louis Vuitton flip flops but still.
Well, this is why I loathe Farage. You see, he know the WEF is not like the UN. He knows there are no dues. It's just a conference and a research department. (And an amazing opportunity to ski the slopes of Davos and Klosters with no crowds!)
So, he's either lying because that message appeals to his supporters. Or he's genuinely ignorant, in which case it doesn't say much for his intellectual curiosity about the world.
A huge, huge determinant of the Tory seat total is the Reform figures!
Why do they even publish these if they’re willingly admitting that it might be incomplete?
Similarly with yesterday’s IPSOS poll which just ignored Corbyn in Islington North and the Ashfield Independents for Ashfield. Make a manual adjustment if you need to, it is surely better than leaving gaping obvious holes in the picture?
Last one had Lab at their lowest (37&) for weeks
Will todays Poll have them back into low 40's?
Lab 453, Con 84, LD 62, SNP 21, PC 4, Ref 3, Green 2 Others 21
Farage won't care that they can't cancel the membership; it is enough to say he will, to keep his followers masturbating about reducing the influence of bloody foreigners.
The policy is for people with lower cognitive aptitude who want the BBC (snooker, Wimbledon, MOTD, Gardener's World, royal occasions, Radio 2, stuff), would hate to have to subscribe like to Sky and things, would also hate abolition but don't want to say so, and don't want to think about how it is paid for.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/19/keir-starmer-wife-victoria-starmer-palestinian/
Although the Stonehenge we see now is a modern recreation. Turner painted it a couple of centuries ago for a better reflection of what was there before the airfield, the road etc.
https://tqemagazine.wordpress.com/2018/02/02/stonehenge-1825joseph-mallord-william-turner/
I mention this because we're in a period of change, with one of our 2 big parties collapsing. Maybe it will lead to some fundamental shift in British politics, as in the 1930s. But maybe it won't. Maybe in 10 years time, we'll have Labour and the Tories as the two big parties.
Lab 44%
Con 28%
Lib Dem 11%
Reform 8%
Green 5%
SNP 3%
Compared to other polls, that seems toppy for Labour, very high for the Tories and very low for Reform.
The Tories are up in a poll!
KLAXON
General Election Competition!: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4826157#Comment_4826157
Con 159
Lab 404
LibDem 42
SNP 19
SF 7
DUP 5
Soros, Gates and especially Rothschild don't get a walk on part either, but they do as soon as you talk to the QAnon branch of the Reform voters. I had an earful last week from one.
Farage never ever allows himself an unqualified criticism, however slight, of Trump. When he concurs with such a point made by an interviewer, he immediately moderates it. His R4 interview this week (with Webb IIRC) was a gem.
https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/general-election-2024/mrp-19-june-2024/
"Excess Deaths and Vaccine Harms Public Inquiry
"Excess deaths are nearly as high as they were during the Covid pandemic. Young people are over-represented."
Pure conspiracy theory. They'll be calling for Fauci to be prosecuted next.
I don't think it's any coincidence, that these moves are happening as pollsters start showing virtual polling cards that accurately reflect voters actual choices in their constituency.
And I think this is simple bad news for the Conservatives, with Labour supporters going LD in constituencies where they are the main challenger.
Now incorporates a squeeze question and some imputation for the remaining voters-to-be who have not provided a party choice.
Without that methodological change, the results would be... very similar (Lab 40, Cons 20, all others the same).
https://x.com/joelwilliams74/status/1803444473017364919
https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/general-election-2024/mrp-19-june-2024/