I was talking to a colleague from Spain. In Spain, there used to be 2 big parties, a Tory-like one and a Labour-like one. Then, there was a period of change: the rise of Podemos and Ciudadnos, etc. All was chaotic. Some years later, however, and things have settled down to 2 big parties, the same as before, a Tory-like one and a Labour-like one.
I mention this because we're in a period of change, with one of our 2 big parties collapsing. Maybe it will lead to some fundamental shift in British politics, as in the 1930s. But maybe it won't. Maybe in 10 years time, we'll have Labour and the Tories as the two big parties.
There are two parties in Spain that can lead a coalition government - PP and PSOE - but the days when either could win a majority or even govern alone are probably gone. Vox on the far right and Sumar/Podemos on the far left are still important (Sumar is part of the current government), then there are the regional parties. But Spain does have a different electoral system (PR, region by region, not national) and that makes it easier for parties to appear, rise and then fall again.
Yes, the smaller parties are still important, but not on the scale they were, and some (Ciudadnos) have completely collapsed. We're back to basically a PP-led or a PSOE-led government. A few years ago, people were talking about PP disappearing altogether.
And, yes, they have PR and we don't, and that might be crucial.
It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
What are the major shifts in this version of the model?
🔴🟡 More of the marginal seats in Scotland are projected to break for Labour from the SNP.
🟠🔵The Liberal Democrats are making bigger gains from the Tories in Oxfordshire, Somerset & Surrey in particular
🔵🔴 The Tories doing a bit better in holding against Labour in some parts of the South East and Outer London. But are doing worse everywhere else than last time losing more seats to Labour in the Midlands in particular.
This feels like it would be a great result for the Tories.
Hands bitten off in Downing Street. Richi goes, but he won't care much. Tories have enough to rebuild, labour have a decent majority for (probably) two terms.
It says a lot about where we are that if the Exit Poll is Labour Landslide 150 majority it will be Tories punching the air and breaking open the fizz.
Some of you bang on and on and on about Ukraine and the evil that is Putin. And how I am a fucking appeaser and a putinist shill and yet - weirdly - I am the only one who has watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death. And then sent a missile two days later which shook my whole block
You see, the post highlights your problem. It's not about Ukraine. It's not about Putin. It's about you. "watched from my hotel balcony as he tried to drone me to death".
Yes, Putin was personally targeting you.
You don't travel to observe; you don't travel to learn. You travel to brag. To boast.
And no thoughts for the people who have been hurt in these attacks. Because it's about you.
Have you been there to report on the situation so that people back in the west understand the dire state of affairs, the bombs and missiles and endless power cuts, because you yourself experienced it, alongside them?
No. You haven’t. Because you are apparently a house husband who stays at home to look after the “little un” who must by now be the biggest “little un” in the history of reproduction, and is probably wondering why he looks so much like the Ocado delivery driver
No. But I don't believe you go in there to 'report on the situation'. You don't. I see no chats with the everyman on the street; no insight. All I see is "Phwah! Look at the pretty girls!"
As for your last sentence. Fuck off, Seriously. I know you find it impossible to hold down relationships, but most other people - and posters - do. You might want to consider why that is before you shit over other people's relationships.
It's jealousy, I guess.
(And anyway, we don't have Ocado.... )
Well said JJ.
I’ve tried to be understanding today given his problematic upbringing, addiction to heroin, relationship breakdowns and estrangement from his children (not to mention the dubious seductions of girls of questionable age) but really this guy brings nothing any more to this forum except dislike from every quarter.
I really do not understand why @TSE and @rcs1000 put up with his trolling and flaming. It’s not about embracing a wide range of perspectives. He just insults everybody in the most vile and personally abusive ways.
This forum will come to an end if he’s not disciplined. Just a prediction. Like Putin and the Russian trolls, as well as his latest pin-ups Donald Trump and Nigel Farage, it’s what they want: disruption. And that’s clearly his aim: to disrupt this forum.
Bollocks. There have been thousands of @SeanTs on the forum long before you arrived.
Not much has changed, apart from a turn over to different thousands of @SeanTs.
They have the impact you give them.
@Leon and @Heathener have both recently predicted the death of this forum.
Which prompts me to reflect: since the election has been called I've never known this place to be so buzzing. @tse and @rcs1000 you're doing a great job. I wonder if the donate button should make it's customary appearance? Server load must be quite high, no?
This morning's PO witness was an 80 year old former executive talking about things that happened in 1998. Shows why the whole inquiry should have happened a lot earlier than it has.
He'd have been younger?
It's difficult to remember the details of meetings which took place that long ago, even for someone younger than him.
Example of the difference between MRPS: this new one has Gavin Williamson in a 46/46 dead heat with Labour in his new seat, whereas the previous one had him winning fairly easily by 50% to 35%.
It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
What are the major shifts in this version of the model?
🔴🟡 More of the marginal seats in Scotland are projected to break for Labour from the SNP.
🟠🔵The Liberal Democrats are making bigger gains from the Tories in Oxfordshire, Somerset & Surrey in particular
🔵🔴 The Tories doing a bit better in holding against Labour in some parts of the South East and Outer London. But are doing worse everywhere else than last time losing more seats to Labour in the Midlands in particular.
This feels like it would be a great result for the Tories.
Hands bitten off in Downing Street. Richi goes, but he won't care much. Tories have enough to rebuild, labour have a decent majority for (probably) two terms.
It says a lot about where we are that if the Exit Poll is Labour Landslide 150 majority it will be Tories punching the air and breaking open the fizz.
It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
What are the major shifts in this version of the model?
🔴🟡 More of the marginal seats in Scotland are projected to break for Labour from the SNP.
🟠🔵The Liberal Democrats are making bigger gains from the Tories in Oxfordshire, Somerset & Surrey in particular
🔵🔴 The Tories doing a bit better in holding against Labour in some parts of the South East and Outer London. But are doing worse everywhere else than last time losing more seats to Labour in the Midlands in particular.
This feels like it would be a great result for the Tories.
Hands bitten off in Downing Street. Richi goes, but he won't care much. Tories have enough to rebuild, labour have a decent majority for (probably) two terms.
It says a lot about where we are that if the Exit Poll is Labour Landslide 150 majority it will be Tories punching the air and breaking open the fizz.
I am going to laugh soooooo much if the Starmer does a TMay and goes from certain majority to a propped up coalition. V unlikely, but I will laugh a lot.
There's been a lot of focus on Reform, but the challenge from the Greens and Galloway's lot + independents could also throw up some unusual results. Pollsters who aren't taking account of the different parts of the Labour coalition may be overstating their support.
How are they not taking account of that? They're polling. Respondents can say WPB or Green or independent. Not that many respondents do, not compared to RefUK supporters.
Because their weighting is blind to it. They can have the right percentage of former Labour voters in each age group but still miss other relevant demographic factors like religion, so could fail to pick up on differential swings.
MiC for Honiton and Sidmouth just isn't going to happen: Conservative: 38% Labour: 26% Liberal Democrat: 16% Green Party: 3% Reform UK: 13% Labour are not even campaigning here.
It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
What are the major shifts in this version of the model?
🔴🟡 More of the marginal seats in Scotland are projected to break for Labour from the SNP.
🟠🔵The Liberal Democrats are making bigger gains from the Tories in Oxfordshire, Somerset & Surrey in particular
🔵🔴 The Tories doing a bit better in holding against Labour in some parts of the South East and Outer London. But are doing worse everywhere else than last time losing more seats to Labour in the Midlands in particular.
This feels like it would be a great result for the Tories.
Hands bitten off in Downing Street. Richi goes, but he won't care much. Tories have enough to rebuild, labour have a decent majority for (probably) two terms.
It says a lot about where we are that if the Exit Poll is Labour Landslide 150 majority it will be Tories punching the air and breaking open the fizz.
It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
What are the major shifts in this version of the model?
🔴🟡 More of the marginal seats in Scotland are projected to break for Labour from the SNP.
🟠🔵The Liberal Democrats are making bigger gains from the Tories in Oxfordshire, Somerset & Surrey in particular
🔵🔴 The Tories doing a bit better in holding against Labour in some parts of the South East and Outer London. But are doing worse everywhere else than last time losing more seats to Labour in the Midlands in particular.
This feels like it would be a great result for the Tories.
Hands bitten off in Downing Street. Richi goes, but he won't care much. Tories have enough to rebuild, labour have a decent majority for (probably) two terms.
It says a lot about where we are that if the Exit Poll is Labour Landslide 150 majority it will be Tories punching the air and breaking open the fizz.
I am going to laugh soooooo much if the Starmer does a TMay and goes from certain majority to a propped up coalition. V unlikely, but I will laugh a lot.
I would understand if you laughed all weekend, at least.
Given that the polls have moved against both Conservatives and Labour (but with the gap staying the same) during that period this suggests a potential further seat movement from the Conservatives to Lib Dems?
It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
What are the major shifts in this version of the model?
🔴🟡 More of the marginal seats in Scotland are projected to break for Labour from the SNP.
🟠🔵The Liberal Democrats are making bigger gains from the Tories in Oxfordshire, Somerset & Surrey in particular
🔵🔴 The Tories doing a bit better in holding against Labour in some parts of the South East and Outer London. But are doing worse everywhere else than last time losing more seats to Labour in the Midlands in particular.
This feels like it would be a great result for the Tories.
Hands bitten off in Downing Street. Richi goes, but he won't care much. Tories have enough to rebuild, labour have a decent majority for (probably) two terms.
It says a lot about where we are that if the Exit Poll says Labour Landslide 150 majority it will be Tories punching the air and breaking open the fizz.
I always fix my eyes on the Lib Dem number. I'm going to be well conflicted on the night if after the bongs it says Labour Landslide but the Lib Dems are looking at a paltry return.
The psychology is going to be fascinating.
Hung parliament: Tories jubilant, Labour dejected, even if they're largest party Small Labour maj: Tories mighty relieved and coming out fighting, Labour disappointed but relieved they still have a majority 2019 sized majority (50-90): Tories relieved, Labour thinking "fine, I'll take that" 100-Blair: Tories resigned, "could have been worse", Labour pretty happy but hiding a secret soupcon of disappointment Blair+: Tories arguing among themselves, Labour punching the air ELE: everyone in shock, including Labour. People walking around like ghosts
There's been a lot of focus on Reform, but the challenge from the Greens and Galloway's lot + independents could also throw up some unusual results. Pollsters who aren't taking account of the different parts of the Labour coalition may be overstating their support.
How are they not taking account of that? They're polling. Respondents can say WPB or Green or independent. Not that many respondents do, not compared to RefUK supporters.
Because their weighting is blind to it. They can have the right percentage of former Labour voters in each age group but still miss other relevant demographic factors like religion, so could miss differential swings.
The MRPs will be picking up on relevant demographic factors. They don't only look at age; they look at various variables. I'm not certain if they look at religion, but I wouldn't be surprised if they do.
Given that the polls have moved against both Conservatives and Labour (but with the gap staying the same) during that period this suggests a potential further seat movement from the Conservatives to Lib Dems?
Still more generous to Con and less to Reform than others at that time, so we can perhaps assume a drift down from 28 to say 25, and Labour from 44 to 41. Which also means it's a decent showing for the Lib Dems.
Does increasingly look like the Tories will outperform in (outer) London. Could be their sole silver lining, perhaps along with bits of Scotland.
Sorry, but I don’t think REF are on 8% given recent polling. I’m not at all convinced they’re on 19% either, but that variation between pollsters is - wild.
🚨Our latest @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP is out now. It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
0 for Reform? The pollsters are very very wide apart…
Apparently a lot of the fieldwork for this was done before Farage announced he was standing and before Sunak's D-Day exit, so I am not sure how much value there is in it.
That's a shockingly slow turnaround of fieldwork data this close to a GE.
MiC for Honiton and Sidmouth just isn't going to happen: Conservative: 38% Labour: 26% Liberal Democrat: 16% Green Party: 3% Reform UK: 13% Labour are not even campaigning here.
Sure. But the MRP is saying that's what the result would be without any campaigning, or ire at the local council or other factors.
So, assuming the MRP is vaguely accurate, and yet the Lib Dems end up polling much higher than Labour, then the Lib Dems would really have pulled a fast one with most of their vote being natural Labour voters convinced to vote tactically.
I've always felt that the Lib Dems actually do really well out of FPTP. There's a decent chance that, with STV, or some other PR system, and an end to tactical voting, that their share of the vote would drop to about 5%, and they'd fade away further from there.
It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
What are the major shifts in this version of the model?
🔴🟡 More of the marginal seats in Scotland are projected to break for Labour from the SNP.
🟠🔵The Liberal Democrats are making bigger gains from the Tories in Oxfordshire, Somerset & Surrey in particular
🔵🔴 The Tories doing a bit better in holding against Labour in some parts of the South East and Outer London. But are doing worse everywhere else than last time losing more seats to Labour in the Midlands in particular.
This feels like it would be a great result for the Tories.
Hands bitten off in Downing Street. Richi goes, but he won't care much. Tories have enough to rebuild, labour have a decent majority for (probably) two terms.
It says a lot about where we are that if the Exit Poll is Labour Landslide 150 majority it will be Tories punching the air and breaking open the fizz.
It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
What are the major shifts in this version of the model?
🔴🟡 More of the marginal seats in Scotland are projected to break for Labour from the SNP.
🟠🔵The Liberal Democrats are making bigger gains from the Tories in Oxfordshire, Somerset & Surrey in particular
🔵🔴 The Tories doing a bit better in holding against Labour in some parts of the South East and Outer London. But are doing worse everywhere else than last time losing more seats to Labour in the Midlands in particular.
This feels like it would be a great result for the Tories.
Hands bitten off in Downing Street. Richi goes, but he won't care much. Tories have enough to rebuild, labour have a decent majority for (probably) two terms.
It says a lot about where we are that if the Exit Poll is Labour Landslide 150 majority it will be Tories punching the air and breaking open the fizz.
I am going to laugh soooooo much if the Starmer does a TMay and goes from certain majority to a propped up coalition. V unlikely, but I will laugh a lot.
I would understand if you laughed all weekend, at least.
Sorry, but I don’t think REF are on 8% given recent polling. I’m not at all convinced they’re on 19% either, but that variation between pollsters is - wild.
“However, the Clacton seat being fought by Nigel Farage is a tight three-way split between the Tories, Labour and Reform, and some of the polling of more than 17,000 people was done before nominations closed and Farage announced his candidacy, meaning there is every chance that the Reform leader could yet win election to Parliament at the eighth time of asking.”
🚨Our latest @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP is out now. It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
0 for Reform? The pollsters are very very wide apart…
Apparently a lot of the fieldwork for this was done before Farage announced he was standing and before Sunak's D-Day exit, so I am not sure how much value there is in it.
They weight more recent responses more highly, though.
Implied vote shares are:
Lab 44% Con 28% Lib Dem 11% Reform 8% Green 5% SNP 3%
Compared to other polls, that seems toppy for Labour, very high for the Tories and very low for Reform.
All the MRP polls are placing the Conservatives notably higher, and Reform notably lower, than the standard polls
And there is your betting opportunity for Conservative seats (or seats lost or Lab maj or whatever). If only we could be sure which was correct!
Today's MRP suggests 155 seats; the previous one (in a recent thread header) was 115. It looks like the betting is guided by the conventional polls that give lower Conservative forecasts.
MiC for Honiton and Sidmouth just isn't going to happen: Conservative: 38% Labour: 26% Liberal Democrat: 16% Green Party: 3% Reform UK: 13% Labour are not even campaigning here.
Sure. But the MRP is saying that's what the result would be without any campaigning, or ire at the local council or other factors.
So, assuming the MRP is vaguely accurate, and yet the Lib Dems end up polling much higher than Labour, then the Lib Dems would really have pulled a fast one with most of their vote being natural Labour voters convinced to vote tactically.
I've always felt that the Lib Dems actually do really well out of FPTP. There's a decent chance that, with STV, or some other PR system, and an end to tactical voting, that their share of the vote would drop to about 5%, and they'd fade away further from there.
Oh, I think that's certainly true. Look at the share of D66 in the Netherlands if you want to see what a LibDem like party is likely to win nationally in a PR election. (Mind you, that would still be a lot more than the 11 seats they got for 12% of the vote back in 2019.)
Sorry, but I don’t think REF are on 8% given recent polling. I’m not at all convinced they’re on 19% either, but that variation between pollsters is - wild.
Explained largely by the fieldwork dates.
Yep. As others have said, fieldwork is far too long.
It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
What are the major shifts in this version of the model?
🔴🟡 More of the marginal seats in Scotland are projected to break for Labour from the SNP.
🟠🔵The Liberal Democrats are making bigger gains from the Tories in Oxfordshire, Somerset & Surrey in particular
🔵🔴 The Tories doing a bit better in holding against Labour in some parts of the South East and Outer London. But are doing worse everywhere else than last time losing more seats to Labour in the Midlands in particular.
This feels like it would be a great result for the Tories.
Hands bitten off in Downing Street. Richi goes, but he won't care much. Tories have enough to rebuild, labour have a decent majority for (probably) two terms.
It says a lot about where we are that if the Exit Poll is Labour Landslide 150 majority it will be Tories punching the air and breaking open the fizz.
It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
What are the major shifts in this version of the model?
🔴🟡 More of the marginal seats in Scotland are projected to break for Labour from the SNP.
🟠🔵The Liberal Democrats are making bigger gains from the Tories in Oxfordshire, Somerset & Surrey in particular
🔵🔴 The Tories doing a bit better in holding against Labour in some parts of the South East and Outer London. But are doing worse everywhere else than last time losing more seats to Labour in the Midlands in particular.
This feels like it would be a great result for the Tories.
Hands bitten off in Downing Street. Richi goes, but he won't care much. Tories have enough to rebuild, labour have a decent majority for (probably) two terms.
It says a lot about where we are that if the Exit Poll is Labour Landslide 150 majority it will be Tories punching the air and breaking open the fizz.
I am going to laugh soooooo much if the Starmer does a TMay and goes from certain majority to a propped up coalition. V unlikely, but I will laugh a lot.
Let's just both have a laugh at Rees Mogg losing his seat.
There's been a lot of focus on Reform, but the challenge from the Greens and Galloway's lot + independents could also throw up some unusual results. Pollsters who aren't taking account of the different parts of the Labour coalition may be overstating their support.
How are they not taking account of that? They're polling. Respondents can say WPB or Green or independent. Not that many respondents do, not compared to RefUK supporters.
Because their weighting is blind to it. They can have the right percentage of former Labour voters in each age group but still miss other relevant demographic factors like religion, so could miss differential swings.
I think YouGov is pretty granular, and when you sign up it asks you those kind of questions (including even how often you go to Church/Temple/etc). Whether they use them in the MRP is another matter altogether.
MiC for Honiton and Sidmouth just isn't going to happen: Conservative: 38% Labour: 26% Liberal Democrat: 16% Green Party: 3% Reform UK: 13% Labour are not even campaigning here.
Sure. But the MRP is saying that's what the result would be without any campaigning, or ire at the local council or other factors.
So, assuming the MRP is vaguely accurate, and yet the Lib Dems end up polling much higher than Labour, then the Lib Dems would really have pulled a fast one with most of their vote being natural Labour voters convinced to vote tactically.
I've always felt that the Lib Dems actually do really well out of FPTP. There's a decent chance that, with STV, or some other PR system, and an end to tactical voting, that their share of the vote would drop to about 5%, and they'd fade away further from there.
If other countries are anything to go by the Lib Dems would probably oscillate between about 4 and 8%. That would get them roughly between 25 and 50 seats. Significantly better than now. And the main parties would no longer be getting mega majorities meaning far more likelihood of involvement in coalition. Lib Dems being reasonably coalitionable would also make them more attractive than say WPGB or Reform.
They are not high IQ. Hence Leon’s fascination with the phenomenon.
The earlier, pre-election version of the contract talked about rejecting the influence of the WEF, but it didn't have the bit about cancelling Britain's non-existent membership. They've added that recently.
What’s the point of polls with fieldwork from before Farage was standing? You might as well give us some fieldwork from when Corbyn was in charge of Labour and Johnson was PM at this point.
"Excess deaths are nearly as high as they were during the Covid pandemic. Young people are over-represented."
Pure conspiracy theory. They'll be calling for Fauci to be prosecuted next.
I have the charts, and here you go:
Anyone claiming current excess death rates are anywhere near those seen in 2020 is a total fucking lying scumbag.
It just doesn't work, though. You can't argue with them. I showed one of my conspiracy mad mates a graph like that and to counter it, he showed me some tweets by a former page 3 model who's married to a bloke from The Cult. Her tweets were apparently more convincing than any scientist I could quote. It's a shitshow out there.
🚨Our latest @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP is out now. It projects a Labour majority of 162 and a historic Conservative defeat. 🔴Lab 406 (+204) 🔵Con 155 (-210) 🟠Lib Dem 49 (+38) 🟡SNP 18 (-30) 🟢Plaid 2 (-2) 🟩Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actuals.
0 for Reform? The pollsters are very very wide apart…
Apparently a lot of the fieldwork for this was done before Farage announced he was standing and before Sunak's D-Day exit, so I am not sure how much value there is in it.
They weight more recent responses more highly, though.
Implied vote shares are:
Lab 44% Con 28% Lib Dem 11% Reform 8% Green 5% SNP 3%
Compared to other polls, that seems toppy for Labour, very high for the Tories and very low for Reform.
All the MRP polls are placing the Conservatives notably higher, and Reform notably lower, than the standard polls
And there is your betting opportunity for Conservative seats (or seats lost or Lab maj or whatever). If only we could be sure which was correct!
Today's MRP suggests 155 seats; the previous one (in a recent thread header) was 115. It looks like the betting is guided by the conventional polls that give lower Conservative forecasts.
I appreciate that there are betting implications for every poll and analysis but for me Sky and BBC have been replaced by the Sports channel where I can watch football, cricket and even Rory imploding at the US open
The election is won by Starmer and I will await with interest the actual seat numbers on Friday 5th July but I do not intend listening to the largely nonsense promises of all the parties and in the case of Reform and the Greens in cuckoo land
I have never made a bet but for those who do I hope you all have a successful and profitable election
It is just 2 more weeks to go but lots of good sport and time in the garden with the better weather is preferred by me
There's been a lot of focus on Reform, but the challenge from the Greens and Galloway's lot + independents could also throw up some unusual results. Pollsters who aren't taking account of the different parts of the Labour coalition may be overstating their support.
How are they not taking account of that? They're polling. Respondents can say WPB or Green or independent. Not that many respondents do, not compared to RefUK supporters.
Because their weighting is blind to it. They can have the right percentage of former Labour voters in each age group but still miss other relevant demographic factors like religion, so could miss differential swings.
The MRPs will be picking up on relevant demographic factors. They don't only look at age; they look at various variables. I'm not certain if they look at religion, but I wouldn't be surprised if they do.
All manner of factors if you read the methodology bit. But the polling is national, so the statistical mismatch with individual constituencies can be massive, irrespective of that,
Starmer leads Sunak by at least 10% on ALL 18 leadership characteristics including:
Represents change (51% | 19%) Cares about people like me (44% | 20%) Can build a strong economy (43% | 29%) Can work well with foreign leaders (42% | 30%)
Sorry, but I don’t think REF are on 8% given recent polling. I’m not at all convinced they’re on 19% either, but that variation between pollsters is - wild.
Explained largely by the fieldwork dates.
Yeah I know we shouldn't pick and choose but the More in Common fieldwork is pointlessly old
There's been a lot of focus on Reform, but the challenge from the Greens and Galloway's lot + independents could also throw up some unusual results. Pollsters who aren't taking account of the different parts of the Labour coalition may be overstating their support.
How are they not taking account of that? They're polling. Respondents can say WPB or Green or independent. Not that many respondents do, not compared to RefUK supporters.
Because their weighting is blind to it. They can have the right percentage of former Labour voters in each age group but still miss other relevant demographic factors like religion, so could miss differential swings.
The MRPs will be picking up on relevant demographic factors. They don't only look at age; they look at various variables. I'm not certain if they look at religion, but I wouldn't be surprised if they do.
All manner of factors if you read the methodology bit. But the polling is national, so the statistical mismatch with individual constituencies can be massive, irrespective of that,
It can, and I expect Corbyn to do well, and the Greens could maybe pick up a seat or two, but I don't see support for williamglenn's contention that pollsters will be overstating Labour's support beyond a few exceptional seats.
“However, the Clacton seat being fought by Nigel Farage is a tight three-way split between the Tories, Labour and Reform, and some of the polling of more than 17,000 people was done before nominations closed and Farage announced his candidacy, meaning there is every chance that the Reform leader could yet win election to Parliament at the eighth time of asking.”
Another one to ignore!
I think Farage is a cert this time- the odds also reflect this as well so not betting on it
Starmer leads Sunak by at least 10% on ALL 18 leadership characteristics including:
Represents change (51% | 19%) Cares about people like me (44% | 20%) Can build a strong economy (43% | 29%) Can work well with foreign leaders (42% | 30%)
They are not high IQ. Hence Leon’s fascination with the phenomenon.
The earlier, pre-election version of the contract talked about rejecting the influence of the WEF, but it didn't have the bit about cancelling Britain's non-existent membership. They've added that recently.
It’s not a contract !
If Farage promises were legally enforcible, he’d be bankrupt by now.
It’s just stupid shit designed to appeal to stupid people. (Apols to any PB RefUK voters, but that’s what it is.)
So Lab with 39% win 425 seats, Con+Ref with 37% combined win 113 seats. That's what division does under FPTP.
There are plenty of those Cons who would never get into bed with Reform, which is why they're voting Cons. And there are a certain % of Reform who would never (now) jump in with the Cons.
So apart from the fact that it's spurious bollocks, whats' your point?
Some may scoff at the Ref 5 (which seats - I will take a look), but this one actually feels quite plausible to me right now.
The relative seat counts for Lab and LD seem more like it on this projection, certainly. A massive Labour tsunami but with the yellows sub-40, which I think we had on another recent MRP, didn't look plausible.
Closer than it needs to be in Chingford according to the YouGov MRP (which prompts for candidate), due to the hubris of Fazia Shaheen. IDS could be value there.
So Lab with 39% win 425 seats, Con+Ref with 37% combined win 113 seats. That's what division does under FPTP.
Yup. FPTP is a beast if your side is split. But whilst it's tempting to add Ref and Con together, one has to wonder what the price would be for Reform to fold themselves into a united party. Partly in terms of policy and personnel. But also in the remaining wets deciding they can't live with that.
Comments
And, yes, they have PR and we don't, and that might be crucial.
Anyone claiming current excess death rates are anywhere near those seen in 2020 is a total fucking lying scumbag.
Which prompts me to reflect: since the election has been called I've never known this place to be so buzzing. @tse and @rcs1000 you're doing a great job. I wonder if the donate button should make it's customary appearance? Server load must be quite high, no?
I know they weight the recent stuff more heavily but honestly, 22nd May feels like an absolute lifetime ago in relevance.
The run is unbroken.
Conservative: 38%
Labour: 26%
Liberal Democrat: 16%
Green Party: 3%
Reform UK: 13%
Labour are not even campaigning here.
Amongst those who hanker for a return of Its a Knockout his lead is MASSIVVVE
Given that the polls have moved against both Conservatives and Labour (but with the gap staying the same) during that period this suggests a potential further seat movement from the Conservatives to Lib Dems?
The psychology is going to be fascinating.
Hung parliament: Tories jubilant, Labour dejected, even if they're largest party
Small Labour maj: Tories mighty relieved and coming out fighting, Labour disappointed but relieved they still have a majority
2019 sized majority (50-90): Tories relieved, Labour thinking "fine, I'll take that"
100-Blair: Tories resigned, "could have been worse", Labour pretty happy but hiding a secret soupcon of disappointment
Blair+: Tories arguing among themselves, Labour punching the air
ELE: everyone in shock, including Labour. People walking around like ghosts
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/19/rishi-sunak-to-lose-seat-tory-wipeout-major-poll-predicts/
Does increasingly look like the Tories will outperform in (outer) London. Could be their sole silver lining, perhaps along with bits of Scotland.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/19/rishi-sunak-to-lose-seat-tory-wipeout-major-poll-predicts/
So, assuming the MRP is vaguely accurate, and yet the Lib Dems end up polling much higher than Labour, then the Lib Dems would really have pulled a fast one with most of their vote being natural Labour voters convinced to vote tactically.
I've always felt that the Lib Dems actually do really well out of FPTP. There's a decent chance that, with STV, or some other PR system, and an end to tactical voting, that their share of the vote would drop to about 5%, and they'd fade away further from there.
This is the MRP election lol!
Telegraph usually Sevanta
Ain't gonna happen IMO.
https://archive.ph/rNqaq
“However, the Clacton seat being fought by Nigel Farage is a tight three-way split between the Tories, Labour and Reform, and some of the polling of more than 17,000 people was done before nominations closed and Farage announced his candidacy, meaning there is every chance that the Reform leader could yet win election to Parliament at the eighth time of asking.”
Another one to ignore!
Hence Leon’s fascination with the phenomenon.
Mrs Jack W hosted her ladies coffee morning today .... think SAS meets Royal Ascot with a dash of Miss Marple.
7 of Britain's finest slurping sherry, brandy .... and oh even some coffee !!
From 2019 - Con 6.. LibDem 1 ... 2024 Con 2 .. LibDem 2 .. Green 1 .. Undecided 2 (1 Not Con)
Poster Count .. Con 2 (+2) .. Lab 2 (+1 .. LibDem Epidemic Levels
Conservative seat bands
0-49 9/2
50-99 6/5
100-149 12/5
150-199 7/1
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/conservatives-seats
Today's MRP suggests 155 seats; the previous one (in a recent thread header) was 115. It looks like the betting is guided by the conventional polls that give lower Conservative forecasts.
I’m ignoring this one.
Wonder if TSE has been dressed yet?
🚨EXCLUSIVE🚨
Rishi Sunak is on course to become the first prime minister in history to lose his seat at an election, a new poll predicts.
MRP poll on 18k votes by Savanta/ Election Calculus puts the Tories on just **53 MPs**. Almost third to Lib Dems.
https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1803455195382157365
Seat projections from the new MRP poll for
@Telegraph
Labour 516
Tories 53
Lib Dems 50
SNP 8
Plaid 4
Reform 0
This suggests the Lib Dems are in touching distance of becoming the official opposition.
Seems critical given that More in Common went back to the day the election was called in the pouring rain.
It's a shitshow out there.
I appreciate that there are betting implications for every poll and analysis but for me Sky and BBC have been replaced by the Sports channel where I can watch football, cricket and even Rory imploding at the US open
The election is won by Starmer and I will await with interest the actual seat numbers on Friday 5th July but I do not intend listening to the largely nonsense promises of all the parties and in the case of Reform and the Greens in cuckoo land
I have never made a bet but for those who do I hope you all have a successful and profitable election
It is just 2 more weeks to go but lots of good sport and time in the garden with the better weather is preferred by me
But the polling is national, so the statistical mismatch with individual constituencies can be massive, irrespective of that,
🌹 Labour 422 (+220)
🌳 Conservatives 140 (-225)
🔸 Lib Dems 48 (+37)
🎗️ SNP 17 (-31)
🌻 Plaid Cymru 2 (-2)
🌍 Green 2 (+1)
➡️ Reform UK 0 (0)
Starmer vs Sunak (14-17 June):
Starmer leads Sunak by at least 10% on ALL 18 leadership characteristics including:
Represents change (51% | 19%)
Cares about people like me (44% | 20%)
Can build a strong economy (43% | 29%)
Can work well with foreign leaders (42% | 30%)
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1803450336713007295
@YouGov
·
34s
Our new MRP has the Conservatives on their lowest seat tally in the party’s almost 200-year history
Labour: 425 (+223)
Conservative: 108 (-257)
Lib Dem: 67 (+56)
SNP: 20 (-28)
Reform UK: 5 (+5)
Plaid: 4 (±0)
Green: 2 (+1)
Implied vote share from our latest MRP
Labour: 39%
Conservative: 22%
Reform UK: 15%
Lib Dem: 12%
Green: 7%
SNP: 3%
Plaid Cymru: 1%
Other: 2%"
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1803457499556618660
Our new MRP has the Conservatives on their lowest seat tally in the party’s almost 200-year history
Labour: 425 (+223)
Conservative: 108 (-257)
Lib Dem: 67 (+56)
SNP: 20 (-28)
Reform UK: 5 (+5)
Plaid: 4 (±0)
Green: 2 (+1)
Their actual front page online right now:
YouGov
@YouGov
·
1m
Replying to
@YouGov
Implied vote share from our latest MRP
Labour: 39%
Conservative: 22%
Reform UK: 15%
Lib Dem: 12%
Green: 7%
SNP: 3%
Plaid Cymru: 1%
Other: 2%
That's really sayin' something ...
If Farage promises were legally enforcible, he’d be bankrupt by now.
It’s just stupid shit designed to appeal to stupid people. (Apols to any PB RefUK voters, but that’s what it is.)
Apart from their egregious polling error in Aberdeenshire North & Moray East with the LibDems on just 3%. Tsk.
Clacton
Ashfield
Great Yarmouth
Basildon and Billericay
Louth and Horncastle
Those feel fairly plausible to me. I would have expected Boston and Skegness too?
So apart from the fact that it's spurious bollocks, whats' your point?
Lab 41%
Jezza 36$
Feels kind of important.
Quite fresh