By 32% to 26% Brits think Ed Davey would be a better PM than Rishi Sunak – politicalbetting.com

System

By 32% to 26% more Brits think Ed Davey would be a better PM than Rishi Sunak – politicalbetting.com

More Britons think Ed Davey would be a better PM than Rishi Sunak in our prime ministerial head-to-headsEd Davey: 32%Rishi Sunak: 26%Keir Starmer: 41%Rishi Sunak: 21%Rishi Sunak: 38%Nigel Farage: 25%Keir Starmer: 40%Ed Davey: 14%Keir Starmer: 50%Nigel Farage: 25%… pic.twitter.com/ol1X4SvSug

Read the full story here

Tweedledee

Unsurprisingly

Taz

FPT

Tweedledee said:

MattW said:

Tweedledee said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Just an aside, but it absolutely pissed it down in Yorkshire yesterday. Hours of incredibly heavy rain. Must've been plenty of flooding. Horrendous stuff. Unlikely, but if it recurs on polling day that could affect things a lot.

Don't worry about it, my Yorkshire grandma always told me

If on St Alena's day it pisses with rain
On St Elizabeth of Aragon's day you'll see the sun plain

Plus the less waterproof will have postal voted. The ebikers will stay at home, apparently the motors can't take UK weather, which will hit the lib Dems.

Heh !

As an owner of 3 pedelecs, that last is one of my candidates for the next diversionary excuse to be adopted by argument-sparse PFAFFERs * on twitter, and the thicker or more dishonest journos in the Telegraph and Spectator, in between knee jerks. I wouldn't drive it through a flood; normal weather is no problem.

I'd love to hear some examples of people who chose not to vote for that reason .

For some time now, it has "but no one cycles in the rain" alongside "but road tax" and "but insurance" etc, forgetting that they themselves put a coat on when they take the dog for a walk in November.

* Pfaffers: People Focussed on Autos, Football or Flags, often all three.

Not making it up

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/jun/15/the-big-problem-is-water-uk-ebike-owners-plagued-by-failing-motors

You see I really need to think about transitioning to an EBike in the next few years when my trusty Carrera Crossfire should get its carriage clock, and picture of a spitfire, but this thing (and the huge cost for a bike with a battery) puts me off somewhat.

Would really like to consider a move to electric though, or pedal assist to be precise.

There was a company that did strap on electric motors but they had a terrible reputation so that's a no.

Andy_JS

Tweedledee said:

Unsurprisingly

A lot of people just don't like Tories.

PedestrianRock

Still bullish on the Lib Dems to come second in seats and I think they’re still value on the ‘Most seats without Labour’ market at the prices quoted.

Taz

Well the country put Boris into number 10, he was a clown. So it is hardly a surprise people would go for another clown over the incumbent.

How dire politics is today.

I Suspect Alan Bates and the Postmasters may have a different view

Taz

Andy_JS said:

Tweedledee said:

Unsurprisingly

A lot of people just don't like Tories.

Well they have hardly endeared themselves to the nation these last few years.

Nigelb

algarkirk said:

Andy_JS said:

Nigelb said:

UK children shorter, fatter and sicker amid poor diet and poverty, report finds
Food Foundation says height of five-year-olds falling, child obesity up by a third and type 2 diabetes by a fifth
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jun/19/uk-children-shorter-fatter-and-sicker-amid-poor-diet-and-poverty-report-finds

Pretty appalling figures.

...The report comes after the Guardian revealed ministers were told they were putting children at lifelong risk of ill health after shelving policies to tackle obesity and junk food until 2025.

Michael Marmot, the director of UCL’s institute of health equity, said the new report spotlighted a dramatic worsening in children’s health in the last decade.

“We used to think of the combination of undernutrition and obesity as a feature of low and middle income countries. We are now seeing it in Britain in 2024.”


“Over a century of history has led us to expect continuous improvements in health. Over the last dozen years that has changed. Healthy life expectancy has declined. Quite simply, people’s fundamental human needs are not being met.”

The Food Foundation report, which included a new analysis of data from government and health sources, spotlighted the rapidly deteriorating state of children’s health.

The height of five-year-olds in the UK has been falling since 2013 and children are also shorter than those in almost all other comparable countries, the report said.

Obesity levels among 10 and 11-year-olds in England have increased by 30% since 2006, with one in five children already officially obese by the time they leave primary school, researchers found.

Cases of type 2 diabetes, which is linked to obesity, have risen by 22% among those aged under 25 in England and Wales in the last five years, the study added...

What are the "fundamental human needs" that aren't being met?

In the 1960s we were loads poorer than now. How did we manage, without foodbanks, to have a better fed population (especially children) than in 2024?

Changes in the type of available, cheap food, I suspect.
Processed food wasn't as large a category; most homes lacked fridge/freezers; there were no microwaves. So a much larger proportion of food was cooked from fresh ingredients.

Changes in school meal provision - the 1980 Education Act abolished minimum nutritional standards for school meals, and removed the requirement for universal provision.

It doesn't mean kids didn't go hungry back then - some clearly did - but what food was available was de facto healthier, rather than a healthy diet being a matter of choice in food selection.

Off the top of my head, but probably some truth in the above.

Eabhal

Taz said:

FPT

Tweedledee said:

MattW said:

Tweedledee said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Just an aside, but it absolutely pissed it down in Yorkshire yesterday. Hours of incredibly heavy rain. Must've been plenty of flooding. Horrendous stuff. Unlikely, but if it recurs on polling day that could affect things a lot.

Don't worry about it, my Yorkshire grandma always told me

If on St Alena's day it pisses with rain
On St Elizabeth of Aragon's day you'll see the sun plain

Plus the less waterproof will have postal voted. The ebikers will stay at home, apparently the motors can't take UK weather, which will hit the lib Dems.

Heh !

As an owner of 3 pedelecs, that last is one of my candidates for the next diversionary excuse to be adopted by argument-sparse PFAFFERs * on twitter, and the thicker or more dishonest journos in the Telegraph and Spectator, in between knee jerks. I wouldn't drive it through a flood; normal weather is no problem.

I'd love to hear some examples of people who chose not to vote for that reason .

For some time now, it has "but no one cycles in the rain" alongside "but road tax" and "but insurance" etc, forgetting that they themselves put a coat on when they take the dog for a walk in November.

* Pfaffers: People Focussed on Autos, Football or Flags, often all three.

Not making it up

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/jun/15/the-big-problem-is-water-uk-ebike-owners-plagued-by-failing-motors

You see I really need to think about transitioning to an EBike in the next few years when my trusty Carrera Crossfire should get its carriage clock, and picture of a spitfire, but this thing (and the huge cost for a bike with a battery) puts me off somewhat.

Would really like to consider a move to electric though, or pedal assist to be precise.

There was a company that did strap on electric motors but they had a terrible reputation so that's a no.

That's a weird story about water. E-bikes are everywhere in SE Asia (or other small e vehicles), and that's hardly the driest part of the world.

Carnyx

Nigelb said:

algarkirk said:

Andy_JS said:

Nigelb said:

UK children shorter, fatter and sicker amid poor diet and poverty, report finds
Food Foundation says height of five-year-olds falling, child obesity up by a third and type 2 diabetes by a fifth
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jun/19/uk-children-shorter-fatter-and-sicker-amid-poor-diet-and-poverty-report-finds

Pretty appalling figures.

...The report comes after the Guardian revealed ministers were told they were putting children at lifelong risk of ill health after shelving policies to tackle obesity and junk food until 2025.

Michael Marmot, the director of UCL’s institute of health equity, said the new report spotlighted a dramatic worsening in children’s health in the last decade.

“We used to think of the combination of undernutrition and obesity as a feature of low and middle income countries. We are now seeing it in Britain in 2024.”


“Over a century of history has led us to expect continuous improvements in health. Over the last dozen years that has changed. Healthy life expectancy has declined. Quite simply, people’s fundamental human needs are not being met.”

The Food Foundation report, which included a new analysis of data from government and health sources, spotlighted the rapidly deteriorating state of children’s health.

The height of five-year-olds in the UK has been falling since 2013 and children are also shorter than those in almost all other comparable countries, the report said.

Obesity levels among 10 and 11-year-olds in England have increased by 30% since 2006, with one in five children already officially obese by the time they leave primary school, researchers found.

Cases of type 2 diabetes, which is linked to obesity, have risen by 22% among those aged under 25 in England and Wales in the last five years, the study added...

What are the "fundamental human needs" that aren't being met?

In the 1960s we were loads poorer than now. How did we manage, without foodbanks, to have a better fed population (especially children) than in 2024?

Changes in the type of available, cheap food, I suspect.
Processed food wasn't as large a category; most homes lacked fridge/freezers; there were no microwaves. So a much larger proportion of food was cooked from fresh ingredients.

Changes in school meal provision - the 1980 Education Act abolished minimum nutritional standards for school meals, and removed the requirement for universal provision.

It doesn't mean kids didn't go hungry back then - some clearly did - but what food was available was de facto healthier, rather than a healthy diet being a matter of choice in food selection.

Off the top of my head, but probably some truth in the above.

I had not known about the 1980 Act. Extraordinary thing to do.

Andy_JS

O/T

Interesting news.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq55x87nqnzo

"An Old Bailey jury has been discharged in the case of Constance Marten and Mark Gordon after being unable to reach verdicts. Ms Marten, 37, and Mr Gordon, 50, denied manslaughter by gross negligence of their baby Victoria. Their newborn girl's body was found inside a shopping bag in a shed in Brighton on 1 March 2023. On Wednesday, the Judge Mark Lucraft KC thanked jurors for their "extraordinary" public service and the "dedication" they have shown in the case. He said they had shown “truly exceptional examples of dedication to public service”, and was conscious they had put their other lives on hold. The judge added that he would be excusing them from jury service for the rest of their lives."

Nigelb

Reminder that this afternoon is the deadline to apply for a postal vote if you need one.

You've got about four hours.

Pulpstar

Looks like the Tories might be in a spot of bother come polling day.

PedestrianRock

https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/1803387881735516293?s=46

Exclusive from @MaxKendix

Rishi Sunak's hyper-defensive election strategy in numbers:

* The prime minister has spent the election campaign visiting seats with an average majority of 11,894

* Over the past 10 days that average has increased to **14,317**

* One in five of the seats he has visited have majorities of more than 20,000

* Just under half of his visit are to seats with 15,000 majorities

Chameleon

Polling that is interesting but ultimately useless. Among the right most 35% of the electorate Farage would romp home over Sunak (as we know from Tory member polling).

Nunu5

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c51104g80zeo.amp

Labour candidate for Derby South voted out of council leader job

pm215

Eabhal said:

Taz said:

FPT

Tweedledee said:

MattW said:

Tweedledee said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Just an aside, but it absolutely pissed it down in Yorkshire yesterday. Hours of incredibly heavy rain. Must've been plenty of flooding. Horrendous stuff. Unlikely, but if it recurs on polling day that could affect things a lot.

Don't worry about it, my Yorkshire grandma always told me

If on St Alena's day it pisses with rain
On St Elizabeth of Aragon's day you'll see the sun plain

Plus the less waterproof will have postal voted. The ebikers will stay at home, apparently the motors can't take UK weather, which will hit the lib Dems.

Heh !

As an owner of 3 pedelecs, that last is one of my candidates for the next diversionary excuse to be adopted by argument-sparse PFAFFERs * on twitter, and the thicker or more dishonest journos in the Telegraph and Spectator, in between knee jerks. I wouldn't drive it through a flood; normal weather is no problem.

I'd love to hear some examples of people who chose not to vote for that reason .

For some time now, it has "but no one cycles in the rain" alongside "but road tax" and "but insurance" etc, forgetting that they themselves put a coat on when they take the dog for a walk in November.

* Pfaffers: People Focussed on Autos, Football or Flags, often all three.

Not making it up

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/jun/15/the-big-problem-is-water-uk-ebike-owners-plagued-by-failing-motors

You see I really need to think about transitioning to an EBike in the next few years when my trusty Carrera Crossfire should get its carriage clock, and picture of a spitfire, but this thing (and the huge cost for a bike with a battery) puts me off somewhat.

Would really like to consider a move to electric though, or pedal assist to be precise.

There was a company that did strap on electric motors but they had a terrible reputation so that's a no.

That's a weird story about water. E-bikes are everywhere in SE Asia (or other small e vehicles), and that's hardly the driest part of the world.

Mmm, these days it can be hard to tell if there's a systemic problem, or if it's just that it's now easy for the 0.1% of unlucky buyers who got a lemon to talk to each other about it online and for the rest of us to read a long forum thread where everybody is reporting that they have this problem too...

mwadams

PedestrianRock said:

https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/1803387881735516293?s=46

Exclusive from @MaxKendix

Rishi Sunak's hyper-defensive election strategy in numbers:

* The prime minister has spent the election campaign visiting seats with an average majority of 11,894

* Over the past 10 days that average has increased to **14,317**

* One in five of the seats he has visited have majorities of more than 20,000

* Just under half of his visit are to seats with 15,000 majorities

Has the PM visited any seats without a Conservative MP?

Chameleon

Taz said:

FPT

Tweedledee said:

MattW said:

Tweedledee said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Just an aside, but it absolutely pissed it down in Yorkshire yesterday. Hours of incredibly heavy rain. Must've been plenty of flooding. Horrendous stuff. Unlikely, but if it recurs on polling day that could affect things a lot.

Don't worry about it, my Yorkshire grandma always told me

If on St Alena's day it pisses with rain
On St Elizabeth of Aragon's day you'll see the sun plain

Plus the less waterproof will have postal voted. The ebikers will stay at home, apparently the motors can't take UK weather, which will hit the lib Dems.

Heh !

As an owner of 3 pedelecs, that last is one of my candidates for the next diversionary excuse to be adopted by argument-sparse PFAFFERs * on twitter, and the thicker or more dishonest journos in the Telegraph and Spectator, in between knee jerks. I wouldn't drive it through a flood; normal weather is no problem.

I'd love to hear some examples of people who chose not to vote for that reason .

For some time now, it has "but no one cycles in the rain" alongside "but road tax" and "but insurance" etc, forgetting that they themselves put a coat on when they take the dog for a walk in November.

* Pfaffers: People Focussed on Autos, Football or Flags, often all three.

Not making it up

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/jun/15/the-big-problem-is-water-uk-ebike-owners-plagued-by-failing-motors

You see I really need to think about transitioning to an EBike in the next few years when my trusty Carrera Crossfire should get its carriage clock, and picture of a spitfire, but this thing (and the huge cost for a bike with a battery) puts me off somewhat.

Would really like to consider a move to electric though, or pedal assist to be precise.

There was a company that did strap on electric motors but they had a terrible reputation so that's a no.

One of my friends got an e-bike for his commute and it is just an attachment to the bike - it works really well.

As an aside e-bikes and scooters are absolute god-sends in terms of improving connectivity, a lime bike takes about 35% off my commute, and even just to the train station it takes off 10, which has meant places are much more accessible. Being able to get an e-bike home when I have a big shop has meant I've been able to get rid of my car.

TimS

Taz said:

Well the country put Boris into number 10, he was a clown. So it is hardly a surprise people would go for another clown over the incumbent.

How dire politics is today.

I Suspect Alan Bates and the Postmasters may have a different view

Do they have a view on the cascade of Tory ministers who failed to do anything about the increasingly obvious issues with the PO after 2015 and until extremely recently? Or just Davey because that’s the meme the right wing press have managed to insuinuate into the collective mind?

If Boris’ clowning had been clearly linked to announcements on relevant policy positions on a tour of target seats, rather than him just enjoying playing the clown, then perhaps the analogy would work.

algarkirk

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Interesting news.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq55x87nqnzo

"An Old Bailey jury has been discharged in the case of Constance Marten and Mark Gordon after being unable to reach verdicts. Ms Marten, 37, and Mr Gordon, 50, denied manslaughter by gross negligence of their baby Victoria. Their newborn girl's body was found inside a shopping bag in a shed in Brighton on 1 March 2023. On Wednesday, the Judge Mark Lucraft KC thanked jurors for their "extraordinary" public service and the "dedication" they have shown in the case. He said they had shown “truly exceptional examples of dedication to public service”, and was conscious they had put their other lives on hold. The judge added that he would be excusing them from jury service for the rest of their lives."

Still sub judice - they have been neither acquitted not convicted and remain charged.

DecrepiterJohnL

Header: More Britons think Ed Davey would be a better PM than Rishi Sunak

It is a rigged poll. They did not ask about Larry the cat.

Andy_JS

algarkirk said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Interesting news.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq55x87nqnzo

"An Old Bailey jury has been discharged in the case of Constance Marten and Mark Gordon after being unable to reach verdicts. Ms Marten, 37, and Mr Gordon, 50, denied manslaughter by gross negligence of their baby Victoria. Their newborn girl's body was found inside a shopping bag in a shed in Brighton on 1 March 2023. On Wednesday, the Judge Mark Lucraft KC thanked jurors for their "extraordinary" public service and the "dedication" they have shown in the case. He said they had shown “truly exceptional examples of dedication to public service”, and was conscious they had put their other lives on hold. The judge added that he would be excusing them from jury service for the rest of their lives."

Still sub judice - they have been neither acquitted not convicted and remain charged.

Yes, we'd better just stick to reporting the facts.

TimS

Chameleon said:

Polling that is interesting but ultimately useless. Among the right most 35% of the electorate Farage would romp home over Sunak (as we know from Tory member polling).

And as we know from the trusty BBC with its totally representative vox pops and QT guests, the rightmost 35% of the electorate is the only one that matters, and is in fact “the people”. The other 65% are out of touch metropolitan chai latte drinkers.

OnlyLivingBoy

Carnyx said:

Nigelb said:

algarkirk said:

Andy_JS said:

Nigelb said:

UK children shorter, fatter and sicker amid poor diet and poverty, report finds
Food Foundation says height of five-year-olds falling, child obesity up by a third and type 2 diabetes by a fifth
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jun/19/uk-children-shorter-fatter-and-sicker-amid-poor-diet-and-poverty-report-finds

Pretty appalling figures.

...The report comes after the Guardian revealed ministers were told they were putting children at lifelong risk of ill health after shelving policies to tackle obesity and junk food until 2025.

Michael Marmot, the director of UCL’s institute of health equity, said the new report spotlighted a dramatic worsening in children’s health in the last decade.

“We used to think of the combination of undernutrition and obesity as a feature of low and middle income countries. We are now seeing it in Britain in 2024.”


“Over a century of history has led us to expect continuous improvements in health. Over the last dozen years that has changed. Healthy life expectancy has declined. Quite simply, people’s fundamental human needs are not being met.”

The Food Foundation report, which included a new analysis of data from government and health sources, spotlighted the rapidly deteriorating state of children’s health.

The height of five-year-olds in the UK has been falling since 2013 and children are also shorter than those in almost all other comparable countries, the report said.

Obesity levels among 10 and 11-year-olds in England have increased by 30% since 2006, with one in five children already officially obese by the time they leave primary school, researchers found.

Cases of type 2 diabetes, which is linked to obesity, have risen by 22% among those aged under 25 in England and Wales in the last five years, the study added...

What are the "fundamental human needs" that aren't being met?

In the 1960s we were loads poorer than now. How did we manage, without foodbanks, to have a better fed population (especially children) than in 2024?

Changes in the type of available, cheap food, I suspect.
Processed food wasn't as large a category; most homes lacked fridge/freezers; there were no microwaves. So a much larger proportion of food was cooked from fresh ingredients.

Changes in school meal provision - the 1980 Education Act abolished minimum nutritional standards for school meals, and removed the requirement for universal provision.

It doesn't mean kids didn't go hungry back then - some clearly did - but what food was available was de facto healthier, rather than a healthy diet being a matter of choice in food selection.

Off the top of my head, but probably some truth in the above.

I had not known about the 1980 Act. Extraordinary thing to do.

Thatcher innit.

Scott_xP

mwadams said:

PedestrianRock said:

https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/1803387881735516293?s=46

Exclusive from @MaxKendix

Rishi Sunak's hyper-defensive election strategy in numbers:

* The prime minister has spent the election campaign visiting seats with an average majority of 11,894

* Over the past 10 days that average has increased to **14,317**

* One in five of the seats he has visited have majorities of more than 20,000

* Just under half of his visit are to seats with 15,000 majorities

Has the PM visited any seats without a Conservative MP?

Do you mean before or after the vote?

DecrepiterJohnL

pm215 said:

Eabhal said:

Taz said:

FPT

Tweedledee said:

MattW said:

Tweedledee said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Just an aside, but it absolutely pissed it down in Yorkshire yesterday. Hours of incredibly heavy rain. Must've been plenty of flooding. Horrendous stuff. Unlikely, but if it recurs on polling day that could affect things a lot.

Don't worry about it, my Yorkshire grandma always told me

If on St Alena's day it pisses with rain
On St Elizabeth of Aragon's day you'll see the sun plain

Plus the less waterproof will have postal voted. The ebikers will stay at home, apparently the motors can't take UK weather, which will hit the lib Dems.

Heh !

As an owner of 3 pedelecs, that last is one of my candidates for the next diversionary excuse to be adopted by argument-sparse PFAFFERs * on twitter, and the thicker or more dishonest journos in the Telegraph and Spectator, in between knee jerks. I wouldn't drive it through a flood; normal weather is no problem.

I'd love to hear some examples of people who chose not to vote for that reason .

For some time now, it has "but no one cycles in the rain" alongside "but road tax" and "but insurance" etc, forgetting that they themselves put a coat on when they take the dog for a walk in November.

* Pfaffers: People Focussed on Autos, Football or Flags, often all three.

Not making it up

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/jun/15/the-big-problem-is-water-uk-ebike-owners-plagued-by-failing-motors

You see I really need to think about transitioning to an EBike in the next few years when my trusty Carrera Crossfire should get its carriage clock, and picture of a spitfire, but this thing (and the huge cost for a bike with a battery) puts me off somewhat.

Would really like to consider a move to electric though, or pedal assist to be precise.

There was a company that did strap on electric motors but they had a terrible reputation so that's a no.

That's a weird story about water. E-bikes are everywhere in SE Asia (or other small e vehicles), and that's hardly the driest part of the world.

Mmm, these days it can be hard to tell if there's a systemic problem, or if it's just that it's now easy for the 0.1% of unlucky buyers who got a lemon to talk to each other about it online and for the rest of us to read a long forum thread where everybody is reporting that they have this problem too...

It will be interesting to see if food delivery workers, who do use e-bikes in all weathers, make the same complaints, or if it is mainly people who are afraid of rain because they've heard the stories.

RochdalePioneers

I am increasingly confident that the LibDems are going to come second. There are decreasing numbers of polls keeping them in 3 digits, and even those show that they are just about clinging onto a stack of seats. Expect the tactical vote to doom them in those as well.

DavidL

Blimey, the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune keep coming for poor Rishi. If he wasn't such an arrogant bugger I would be feeling sorry for him by now.

But Ed Davey a better PM? That's gotta hurt.

Theuniondivvie

He is Risen!

https://x.com/humnews_english/status/1803396121009529216

OnlyLivingBoy

Off topic, saw a interesting FB post pointing out that the best F1 drivers are all named after places in Scotland: Lewis Hamilton, Eddie Irvine, Stirling Moss and Ayr Toon Centre.

Nunu5

Does it mean much?
A bucket of sick would poll higher than the PM.

Taz

PedestrianRock said:

https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/1803387881735516293?s=46

Exclusive from @MaxKendix

Rishi Sunak's hyper-defensive election strategy in numbers:

* The prime minister has spent the election campaign visiting seats with an average majority of 11,894

* Over the past 10 days that average has increased to **14,317**

* One in five of the seats he has visited have majorities of more than 20,000

* Just under half of his visit are to seats with 15,000 majorities

Be interesting to see if Labour's key seats its senior people have visiting has changed too.

DecrepiterJohnL

Carnyx said:

Nigelb said:

algarkirk said:

Andy_JS said:

Nigelb said:

UK children shorter, fatter and sicker amid poor diet and poverty, report finds
Food Foundation says height of five-year-olds falling, child obesity up by a third and type 2 diabetes by a fifth
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jun/19/uk-children-shorter-fatter-and-sicker-amid-poor-diet-and-poverty-report-finds

Pretty appalling figures.

...The report comes after the Guardian revealed ministers were told they were putting children at lifelong risk of ill health after shelving policies to tackle obesity and junk food until 2025.

Michael Marmot, the director of UCL’s institute of health equity, said the new report spotlighted a dramatic worsening in children’s health in the last decade.

“We used to think of the combination of undernutrition and obesity as a feature of low and middle income countries. We are now seeing it in Britain in 2024.”


“Over a century of history has led us to expect continuous improvements in health. Over the last dozen years that has changed. Healthy life expectancy has declined. Quite simply, people’s fundamental human needs are not being met.”

The Food Foundation report, which included a new analysis of data from government and health sources, spotlighted the rapidly deteriorating state of children’s health.

The height of five-year-olds in the UK has been falling since 2013 and children are also shorter than those in almost all other comparable countries, the report said.

Obesity levels among 10 and 11-year-olds in England have increased by 30% since 2006, with one in five children already officially obese by the time they leave primary school, researchers found.

Cases of type 2 diabetes, which is linked to obesity, have risen by 22% among those aged under 25 in England and Wales in the last five years, the study added...

What are the "fundamental human needs" that aren't being met?

In the 1960s we were loads poorer than now. How did we manage, without foodbanks, to have a better fed population (especially children) than in 2024?

Changes in the type of available, cheap food, I suspect.
Processed food wasn't as large a category; most homes lacked fridge/freezers; there were no microwaves. So a much larger proportion of food was cooked from fresh ingredients.

Changes in school meal provision - the 1980 Education Act abolished minimum nutritional standards for school meals, and removed the requirement for universal provision.

It doesn't mean kids didn't go hungry back then - some clearly did - but what food was available was de facto healthier, rather than a healthy diet being a matter of choice in food selection.

Off the top of my head, but probably some truth in the above.

I had not known about the 1980 Act. Extraordinary thing to do.

Fried food was probably more common back in the day. Fish and chip shops were everywhere, and used animal fat not oil like today, and frying at home was so common that the government used to run television adverts about chip pan fires. And yet we were mostly slimmer.

But remember too children were smaller than now, and in today's report and the last thread, that was taken as a sign of malnutrition.

Basically, it is complicated and I'm automatically suspicious of reports from people who can't tell a confounding variable from their elbow.

Theuniondivvie

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Off topic, saw a interesting FB post pointing out that the best F1 drivers are all named after places in Scotland: Lewis Hamilton, Eddie Irvine, Stirling Moss and Ayr Toon Centre.

I'll leave the partisans to decide who is Twatt.

Taz

TimS said:

Taz said:

Well the country put Boris into number 10, he was a clown. So it is hardly a surprise people would go for another clown over the incumbent.

How dire politics is today.

I Suspect Alan Bates and the Postmasters may have a different view

Do they have a view on the cascade of Tory ministers who failed to do anything about the increasingly obvious issues with the PO after 2015 and until extremely recently? Or just Davey because that’s the meme the right wing press have managed to insuinuate into the collective mind?

Please feel free to ask them. I am sure they have.

Laura K savaged him on Sunday on her politics show about it and he looked very very uncomfortable and she is hardly right wing. Her Father was a donor to the Labour Party.

PedestrianRock

RochdalePioneers said:

I am increasingly confident that the LibDems are going to come second. There are decreasing numbers of polls keeping them in 3 digits, and even those show that they are just about clinging onto a stack of seats. Expect the tactical vote to doom them in those as well.

Glad to see you also think this given your superior knowledge!

Lib Dems are now 4.9 on ‘Most seats without Labour’ which feels high indeed. The implied probability of that is about 20% and it feels much more like 35-45% at least in my head.

Taz

Eabhal said:

Taz said:

FPT

Tweedledee said:

MattW said:

Tweedledee said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Just an aside, but it absolutely pissed it down in Yorkshire yesterday. Hours of incredibly heavy rain. Must've been plenty of flooding. Horrendous stuff. Unlikely, but if it recurs on polling day that could affect things a lot.

Don't worry about it, my Yorkshire grandma always told me

If on St Alena's day it pisses with rain
On St Elizabeth of Aragon's day you'll see the sun plain

Plus the less waterproof will have postal voted. The ebikers will stay at home, apparently the motors can't take UK weather, which will hit the lib Dems.

Heh !

As an owner of 3 pedelecs, that last is one of my candidates for the next diversionary excuse to be adopted by argument-sparse PFAFFERs * on twitter, and the thicker or more dishonest journos in the Telegraph and Spectator, in between knee jerks. I wouldn't drive it through a flood; normal weather is no problem.

I'd love to hear some examples of people who chose not to vote for that reason .

For some time now, it has "but no one cycles in the rain" alongside "but road tax" and "but insurance" etc, forgetting that they themselves put a coat on when they take the dog for a walk in November.

* Pfaffers: People Focussed on Autos, Football or Flags, often all three.

Not making it up

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/jun/15/the-big-problem-is-water-uk-ebike-owners-plagued-by-failing-motors

You see I really need to think about transitioning to an EBike in the next few years when my trusty Carrera Crossfire should get its carriage clock, and picture of a spitfire, but this thing (and the huge cost for a bike with a battery) puts me off somewhat.

Would really like to consider a move to electric though, or pedal assist to be precise.

There was a company that did strap on electric motors but they had a terrible reputation so that's a no.

That's a weird story about water. E-bikes are everywhere in SE Asia (or other small e vehicles), and that's hardly the driest part of the world.

Kuala Lumpur, as lovely as it is, certainly wasn't when I was there earlier in the year.

But as a pedal cyclist looking to switch over you can see why these stories and reports of £700 to replace the battery or motor (sorry, cannot remember which) would be a concern.

PedestrianRock

Taz said:

PedestrianRock said:

https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/1803387881735516293?s=46

Exclusive from @MaxKendix

Rishi Sunak's hyper-defensive election strategy in numbers:

* The prime minister has spent the election campaign visiting seats with an average majority of 11,894

* Over the past 10 days that average has increased to **14,317**

* One in five of the seats he has visited have majorities of more than 20,000

* Just under half of his visit are to seats with 15,000 majorities

Be interesting to see if Labour's key seats its senior people have visiting has changed too.

There’s been a lot of tweets about how Labour have been telling activists recently to go elsewhere and flock to previously ‘unwinnable’ seats

DecrepiterJohnL

Theuniondivvie said:

He is Risen!

https://x.com/humnews_english/status/1803396121009529216

So remember, children: snap judgements about Salisbury are mandatory else you will be slung out of the Labour Party but be sceptical about news of dead linguistics professors and bar fights at the Euros.

Harris_Tweed

Objectively hilarious that Sunak trounces Farage!

El_Capitano

pm215 said:

Eabhal said:

Taz said:

FPT

Tweedledee said:

MattW said:

Tweedledee said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Just an aside, but it absolutely pissed it down in Yorkshire yesterday. Hours of incredibly heavy rain. Must've been plenty of flooding. Horrendous stuff. Unlikely, but if it recurs on polling day that could affect things a lot.

Don't worry about it, my Yorkshire grandma always told me

If on St Alena's day it pisses with rain
On St Elizabeth of Aragon's day you'll see the sun plain

Plus the less waterproof will have postal voted. The ebikers will stay at home, apparently the motors can't take UK weather, which will hit the lib Dems.

Heh !

As an owner of 3 pedelecs, that last is one of my candidates for the next diversionary excuse to be adopted by argument-sparse PFAFFERs * on twitter, and the thicker or more dishonest journos in the Telegraph and Spectator, in between knee jerks. I wouldn't drive it through a flood; normal weather is no problem.

I'd love to hear some examples of people who chose not to vote for that reason .

For some time now, it has "but no one cycles in the rain" alongside "but road tax" and "but insurance" etc, forgetting that they themselves put a coat on when they take the dog for a walk in November.

* Pfaffers: People Focussed on Autos, Football or Flags, often all three.

Not making it up

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/jun/15/the-big-problem-is-water-uk-ebike-owners-plagued-by-failing-motors

You see I really need to think about transitioning to an EBike in the next few years when my trusty Carrera Crossfire should get its carriage clock, and picture of a spitfire, but this thing (and the huge cost for a bike with a battery) puts me off somewhat.

Would really like to consider a move to electric though, or pedal assist to be precise.

There was a company that did strap on electric motors but they had a terrible reputation so that's a no.

That's a weird story about water. E-bikes are everywhere in SE Asia (or other small e vehicles), and that's hardly the driest part of the world.

Mmm, these days it can be hard to tell if there's a systemic problem, or if it's just that it's now easy for the 0.1% of unlucky buyers who got a lemon to talk to each other about it online and for the rest of us to read a long forum thread where everybody is reporting that they have this problem too...

It appears to be specific to the latest Bosch Performance Line CX motor. So it's no more a generic problem with ebikes than an issue with a particular Fiat engine would be a generic problem with cars.

We have a Bosch Cargo Line motor in our Tern GSD - I have got it very wet on occasions and it's ploughed on regardless.

TheScreamingEagles

Chris Sutton's prediction on the Netherlands v France match is hysterical about his own broken nose with a dollop of near legendary modesty

We are waiting to see if Kylian Mbappe plays with his broken nose. I am no medical expert - I can't be an expert at everything - but my diagnosis is that it probably comes down to how sore it is.

Patrick Vieira broke my nose once – he elbowed me off the ball at a corner when I was playing for Blackburn in 1998. I went down and when I looked up he was laughing at me while my eyes were pouring with water.

Then I tried to take retribution by going in two-footed on him, missed… and got a straight red card. As I got up, I saw the ref waving the red card at me and Emmanuel Petit pushed me over and I landed on my nose again. It was a terrible few minutes for me.

I reckon I would have been able to play with my broken nose, but not that particular day because I was sent off.

As for the game? I just cannot see past France, really.

I quite liked the way the Netherlands played against Poland, but France will still probably edge past them. It is what they do.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/ce77k1x10e6o

Novo

My wife and I both voting for the Lib Dems in Harborough Oadby & Wigston today with our postal votes.

Pulpstar

Harris_Tweed said:

Objectively hilarious that Sunak trounces Farage!

It's a landslide for Sunak amongst people who wouldn't ever vote for him or Farage.

Dumbosaurus

RochdalePioneers said:

I am increasingly confident that the LibDems are going to come second. There are decreasing numbers of polls keeping them in 3 digits, and even those show that they are just about clinging onto a stack of seats. Expect the tactical vote to doom them in those as well.

If you're confident in this then there is a "Lib Dems 50up" market on the spreads, which is basically like buying a call with a strike of 50 seats, so a limited loss if you're catastrophically wrong. Currently 11 offered.

I though have sold 56 seats on the outright market...

TheScreamingEagles

Theuniondivvie said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Off topic, saw a interesting FB post pointing out that the best F1 drivers are all named after places in Scotland: Lewis Hamilton, Eddie Irvine, Stirling Moss and Ayr Toon Centre.

I'll leave the partisans to decide who is Twatt.

Nothing partisan about saying Max Verstappen is Twatt.

Scott_xP

@Alex_Stafford
It's one thing betraying your principles, but another to throw your friends under a bus. The population of the Ninth Circle has increased today.

https://x.com/Alex_Stafford/status/1803390948606452118

Dumbosaurus

Anyone got any interesting opportunities? I can't see anything I don't already have but am also too busy to go combing through every market and bookie!

rottenborough

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Carnyx said:

Nigelb said:

algarkirk said:

Andy_JS said:

Nigelb said:

UK children shorter, fatter and sicker amid poor diet and poverty, report finds
Food Foundation says height of five-year-olds falling, child obesity up by a third and type 2 diabetes by a fifth
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jun/19/uk-children-shorter-fatter-and-sicker-amid-poor-diet-and-poverty-report-finds

Pretty appalling figures.

...The report comes after the Guardian revealed ministers were told they were putting children at lifelong risk of ill health after shelving policies to tackle obesity and junk food until 2025.

Michael Marmot, the director of UCL’s institute of health equity, said the new report spotlighted a dramatic worsening in children’s health in the last decade.

“We used to think of the combination of undernutrition and obesity as a feature of low and middle income countries. We are now seeing it in Britain in 2024.”


“Over a century of history has led us to expect continuous improvements in health. Over the last dozen years that has changed. Healthy life expectancy has declined. Quite simply, people’s fundamental human needs are not being met.”

The Food Foundation report, which included a new analysis of data from government and health sources, spotlighted the rapidly deteriorating state of children’s health.

The height of five-year-olds in the UK has been falling since 2013 and children are also shorter than those in almost all other comparable countries, the report said.

Obesity levels among 10 and 11-year-olds in England have increased by 30% since 2006, with one in five children already officially obese by the time they leave primary school, researchers found.

Cases of type 2 diabetes, which is linked to obesity, have risen by 22% among those aged under 25 in England and Wales in the last five years, the study added...

What are the "fundamental human needs" that aren't being met?

In the 1960s we were loads poorer than now. How did we manage, without foodbanks, to have a better fed population (especially children) than in 2024?

Changes in the type of available, cheap food, I suspect.
Processed food wasn't as large a category; most homes lacked fridge/freezers; there were no microwaves. So a much larger proportion of food was cooked from fresh ingredients.

Changes in school meal provision - the 1980 Education Act abolished minimum nutritional standards for school meals, and removed the requirement for universal provision.

It doesn't mean kids didn't go hungry back then - some clearly did - but what food was available was de facto healthier, rather than a healthy diet being a matter of choice in food selection.

Off the top of my head, but probably some truth in the above.

I had not known about the 1980 Act. Extraordinary thing to do.

Thatcher innit.

I remember it well. I wrote a satirical piece for the school magazine about it.

OnlyLivingBoy

Harris_Tweed said:

Objectively hilarious that Sunak trounces Farage!

Starmer beats Farage by 2:1 in a head to head, too. PB extremely right wing people please explain!

Tweedledee

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Interesting news.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq55x87nqnzo

"An Old Bailey jury has been discharged in the case of Constance Marten and Mark Gordon after being unable to reach verdicts. Ms Marten, 37, and Mr Gordon, 50, denied manslaughter by gross negligence of their baby Victoria. Their newborn girl's body was found inside a shopping bag in a shed in Brighton on 1 March 2023. On Wednesday, the Judge Mark Lucraft KC thanked jurors for their "extraordinary" public service and the "dedication" they have shown in the case. He said they had shown “truly exceptional examples of dedication to public service”, and was conscious they had put their other lives on hold. The judge added that he would be excusing them from jury service for the rest of their lives."

Excusing them from jury service for the rest of their lives sounds generous but I have never been summoned. Would it not be fairer if everyone only had to do it once, or at least was only liable to do a second lot if no first timers available?

Nunu5

https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1803390678434525654

Muslim entrepreneur gives Reform money, saying migrants are affronted by channel crossings.

This is very true, there is a sense of that is not fair

Clutch_Brompton

Just a reminder to everyone that the current Govt have the highest tax rate in 70 years and will need to raise taxes by £3000 to fund their manifesto, at least £1000 more than Lab.

That is why the tax line isn't moving the polls. Lab will probably raise taxes - the Cons will absolutely certainly raise taxes. They are the high tax party - you just don't get to see any benefit for that spending

Nigelb

Carnyx said:

Nigelb said:

algarkirk said:

Andy_JS said:

Nigelb said:

UK children shorter, fatter and sicker amid poor diet and poverty, report finds
Food Foundation says height of five-year-olds falling, child obesity up by a third and type 2 diabetes by a fifth
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jun/19/uk-children-shorter-fatter-and-sicker-amid-poor-diet-and-poverty-report-finds

Pretty appalling figures.

...The report comes after the Guardian revealed ministers were told they were putting children at lifelong risk of ill health after shelving policies to tackle obesity and junk food until 2025.

Michael Marmot, the director of UCL’s institute of health equity, said the new report spotlighted a dramatic worsening in children’s health in the last decade.

“We used to think of the combination of undernutrition and obesity as a feature of low and middle income countries. We are now seeing it in Britain in 2024.”


“Over a century of history has led us to expect continuous improvements in health. Over the last dozen years that has changed. Healthy life expectancy has declined. Quite simply, people’s fundamental human needs are not being met.”

The Food Foundation report, which included a new analysis of data from government and health sources, spotlighted the rapidly deteriorating state of children’s health.

The height of five-year-olds in the UK has been falling since 2013 and children are also shorter than those in almost all other comparable countries, the report said.

Obesity levels among 10 and 11-year-olds in England have increased by 30% since 2006, with one in five children already officially obese by the time they leave primary school, researchers found.

Cases of type 2 diabetes, which is linked to obesity, have risen by 22% among those aged under 25 in England and Wales in the last five years, the study added...

What are the "fundamental human needs" that aren't being met?

In the 1960s we were loads poorer than now. How did we manage, without foodbanks, to have a better fed population (especially children) than in 2024?

Changes in the type of available, cheap food, I suspect.
Processed food wasn't as large a category; most homes lacked fridge/freezers; there were no microwaves. So a much larger proportion of food was cooked from fresh ingredients.

Changes in school meal provision - the 1980 Education Act abolished minimum nutritional standards for school meals, and removed the requirement for universal provision.

It doesn't mean kids didn't go hungry back then - some clearly did - but what food was available was de facto healthier, rather than a healthy diet being a matter of choice in food selection.

Off the top of my head, but probably some truth in the above.

I had not known about the 1980 Act. Extraordinary thing to do.

The first Thatcher government made a lot of hard choices.
Whether some were unjustified is clearly still strenuously disputed.
(This one is, for me, very clearly a bad choice.)

What's not really discussed much is how many of the choices of all her administrations - often matters of the expediency of the moment - weren't revisited by her successors.

Blair/Brown are as much to blame for some of the continuing negatives of Thatcherism as she is herself.

(Note I regard her legacy as a deeply mixed one, rather than being entirely negative.)

DavidL

RochdalePioneers said:

I am increasingly confident that the LibDems are going to come second. There are decreasing numbers of polls keeping them in 3 digits, and even those show that they are just about clinging onto a stack of seats. Expect the tactical vote to doom them in those as well.

Is it your Labour candidate that has been dropped by the party? Heard it on the radio this morning.

TheScreamingEagles

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Harris_Tweed said:

Objectively hilarious that Sunak trounces Farage!

Starmer beats Farage by 2:1 in a head to head, too. PB extremely right wing people please explain!

I'm still waiting for an explanation from Leon on why Sir Keir Starmer and Gareth Southgate are more popular than Nigel Farage.

TheScreamingEagles

Scott_xP said:

@Alex_Stafford
It's one thing betraying your principles, but another to throw your friends under a bus. The population of the Ninth Circle has increased today.

https://x.com/Alex_Stafford/status/1803390948606452118

Who is he talking about?

Sandpit

So the unwashed idiots have now decided to desecrate Stonehenge with orange paint, the day before the solstice.

Hope the judge sentences them to clean it off with a toothbrush.

GIN1138

Andy_JS said:

Tweedledee said:

Unsurprisingly

A lot of people just don't like Tories.

Well they've not exactly covered themselves in glory over the past few years...

Tweedledee

Scott_xP said:

@Alex_Stafford
It's one thing betraying your principles, but another to throw your friends under a bus. The population of the Ninth Circle has increased today.

https://x.com/Alex_Stafford/status/1803390948606452118

Alexander soon to be Staffordxmp presumably. Never heard of.

TheScreamingEagles

Dumbosaurus said:

Anyone got any interesting opportunities? I can't see anything I don't already have but am also too busy to go combing through every market and bookie!

I am writing a piece on why the Lib Dems are best placed to win Aberdeenshire and Moray East.

The Tory candidate is the backstabber Douglas Ross whilst the Labour candidate has been disowned for being a bit extreme.

Harris_Tweed

Nunu5 said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c51104g80zeo.amp

Labour candidate for Derby South voted out of council leader job

Not the key point, but given the amount of “parachuting”, I’d bet there aren’t many seats with three sitting councillors from the same (relevant) local authority standing!

DecrepiterJohnL

Dumbosaurus said:

Anyone got any interesting opportunities? I can't see anything I don't already have but am also too busy to go combing through every market and bookie!

Betting on the number of Conservative seats is out of line with the MRP projections.

Andy_JS

Awful people. From Russia apparently.

"Don't blame us for people suffering - London hospital hackers"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ceddqglk7qgo

Tres

Taz said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Well the country put Boris into number 10, he was a clown. So it is hardly a surprise people would go for another clown over the incumbent.

How dire politics is today.

I Suspect Alan Bates and the Postmasters may have a different view

Do they have a view on the cascade of Tory ministers who failed to do anything about the increasingly obvious issues with the PO after 2015 and until extremely recently? Or just Davey because that’s the meme the right wing press have managed to insuinuate into the collective mind?

Please feel free to ask them. I am sure they have.

Laura K savaged him on Sunday on her politics show about it and he looked very very uncomfortable and she is hardly right wing. Her Father was a donor to the Labour Party.

Tom Hardy now that's bait gif

Nigelb

Taz said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Well the country put Boris into number 10, he was a clown. So it is hardly a surprise people would go for another clown over the incumbent.

How dire politics is today.

I Suspect Alan Bates and the Postmasters may have a different view

Do they have a view on the cascade of Tory ministers who failed to do anything about the increasingly obvious issues with the PO after 2015 and until extremely recently? Or just Davey because that’s the meme the right wing press have managed to insuinuate into the collective mind?

Please feel free to ask them. I am sure they have.

Laura K savaged him on Sunday on her politics show about it and he looked very very uncomfortable and she is hardly right wing. Her Father was a donor to the Labour Party.

The divine Laura ?

DecrepiterJohnL

Tweedledee said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Interesting news.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq55x87nqnzo

"An Old Bailey jury has been discharged in the case of Constance Marten and Mark Gordon after being unable to reach verdicts. Ms Marten, 37, and Mr Gordon, 50, denied manslaughter by gross negligence of their baby Victoria. Their newborn girl's body was found inside a shopping bag in a shed in Brighton on 1 March 2023. On Wednesday, the Judge Mark Lucraft KC thanked jurors for their "extraordinary" public service and the "dedication" they have shown in the case. He said they had shown “truly exceptional examples of dedication to public service”, and was conscious they had put their other lives on hold. The judge added that he would be excusing them from jury service for the rest of their lives."

Excusing them from jury service for the rest of their lives sounds generous but I have never been summoned. Would it not be fairer if everyone only had to do it once, or at least was only liable to do a second lot if no first timers available?

Hard to say. Academics are not allowed to study juries properly so we are probably stuck. The most common report I've heard is called-up jurors spending three days sitting around reading a book before being sent home because they're not wanted. In this case, the trial lasted five months, which is a long time for jurors to "put their lives on hold" in the judge's words.

Andy_JS

Novo said:

My wife and I both voting for the Lib Dems in Harborough Oadby & Wigston today with our postal votes.

Do you think they have a good chance of winning the constituency?

TOPPING

TheScreamingEagles said:

Chris Sutton's prediction on the Netherlands v France match is hysterical about his own broken nose with a dollop of near legendary modesty

We are waiting to see if Kylian Mbappe plays with his broken nose. I am no medical expert - I can't be an expert at everything - but my diagnosis is that it probably comes down to how sore it is.

Patrick Vieira broke my nose once – he elbowed me off the ball at a corner when I was playing for Blackburn in 1998. I went down and when I looked up he was laughing at me while my eyes were pouring with water.

Then I tried to take retribution by going in two-footed on him, missed… and got a straight red card. As I got up, I saw the ref waving the red card at me and Emmanuel Petit pushed me over and I landed on my nose again. It was a terrible few minutes for me.

I reckon I would have been able to play with my broken nose, but not that particular day because I was sent off.

As for the game? I just cannot see past France, really.

I quite liked the way the Netherlands played against Poland, but France will still probably edge past them. It is what they do.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/ce77k1x10e6o

Brilliant. If he means it to be funny.

TheScreamingEagles

Farage set to win Clacton ‘with biggest swing in modern history’

Reform UK leader on course to get 42% in the Essex seat, a new poll suggests

Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with the biggest swing in modern electoral history, a new poll has suggested.

The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, suggests that Farage will win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex. The Tories are forecast to win 27 per cent and Labour 24 per cent.

Survation, the company that carried out the survey, said the scale of the projected swing from the Tories to Labour would be “extremely rare” and “unprecedented in modern electoral history”.

The seat has been held by Giles Watling, a Conservative, since 2017. In 2019, when Boris Johnson put Brexit at the heart of his campaign, Watling secured a 24,702 majority with 72 per cent of the vote share.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/farage-set-to-win-clacton-with-biggest-swing-in-modern-history-5tzjsmtw6

OldKingCole

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Tweedledee said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Interesting news.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq55x87nqnzo

"An Old Bailey jury has been discharged in the case of Constance Marten and Mark Gordon after being unable to reach verdicts. Ms Marten, 37, and Mr Gordon, 50, denied manslaughter by gross negligence of their baby Victoria. Their newborn girl's body was found inside a shopping bag in a shed in Brighton on 1 March 2023. On Wednesday, the Judge Mark Lucraft KC thanked jurors for their "extraordinary" public service and the "dedication" they have shown in the case. He said they had shown “truly exceptional examples of dedication to public service”, and was conscious they had put their other lives on hold. The judge added that he would be excusing them from jury service for the rest of their lives."

Excusing them from jury service for the rest of their lives sounds generous but I have never been summoned. Would it not be fairer if everyone only had to do it once, or at least was only liable to do a second lot if no first timers available?

Hard to say. Academics are not allowed to study juries properly so we are probably stuck. The most common report I've heard is called-up jurors spending three days sitting around reading a book before being sent home because they're not wanted. In this case, the trial lasted five months, which is a long time for jurors to "put their lives on hold" in the judge's words.

The BBC said the jury had only deliberated for some 72 hours, but of course the trial has been going on, and off, since January.

Tweedledee

Nigelb said:

Taz said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Well the country put Boris into number 10, he was a clown. So it is hardly a surprise people would go for another clown over the incumbent.

How dire politics is today.

I Suspect Alan Bates and the Postmasters may have a different view

Do they have a view on the cascade of Tory ministers who failed to do anything about the increasingly obvious issues with the PO after 2015 and until extremely recently? Or just Davey because that’s the meme the right wing press have managed to insuinuate into the collective mind?

Please feel free to ask them. I am sure they have.

Laura K savaged him on Sunday on her politics show about it and he looked very very uncomfortable and she is hardly right wing. Her Father was a donor to the Labour Party.

The divine Laura ?

Immaculate point.

Lennon

RochdalePioneers said:

I am increasingly confident that the LibDems are going to come second. There are decreasing numbers of polls keeping them in 3 digits, and even those show that they are just about clinging onto a stack of seats. Expect the tactical vote to doom them in those as well.

It too me a while to figure out if you meant the Lib Dems generally, or in your seat specifically...

Nigelb

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Chris Sutton's prediction on the Netherlands v France match is hysterical about his own broken nose with a dollop of near legendary modesty

We are waiting to see if Kylian Mbappe plays with his broken nose. I am no medical expert - I can't be an expert at everything - but my diagnosis is that it probably comes down to how sore it is.

Patrick Vieira broke my nose once – he elbowed me off the ball at a corner when I was playing for Blackburn in 1998. I went down and when I looked up he was laughing at me while my eyes were pouring with water.

Then I tried to take retribution by going in two-footed on him, missed… and got a straight red card. As I got up, I saw the ref waving the red card at me and Emmanuel Petit pushed me over and I landed on my nose again. It was a terrible few minutes for me.

I reckon I would have been able to play with my broken nose, but not that particular day because I was sent off.

As for the game? I just cannot see past France, really.

I quite liked the way the Netherlands played against Poland, but France will still probably edge past them. It is what they do.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/ce77k1x10e6o

Brilliant. If he means it to be funny.

Sounds as though he can't see past the end of his own nose, rather than France ?

Novo

Andy_JS said:

Novo said:

My wife and I both voting for the Lib Dems in Harborough Oadby & Wigston today with our postal votes.

Do you think they have a good chance of winning the constituency?

In,terms of recent 2023 local election results then, yes. Were 3rd in 2019 but a lot has happened since then and going back used to be a good second place. I have a £25 bet at 25-1!

MattW

Tweedledee said:

MattW said:

Tweedledee said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Just an aside, but it absolutely pissed it down in Yorkshire yesterday. Hours of incredibly heavy rain. Must've been plenty of flooding. Horrendous stuff. Unlikely, but if it recurs on polling day that could affect things a lot.

Don't worry about it, my Yorkshire grandma always told me

If on St Alena's day it pisses with rain
On St Elizabeth of Aragon's day you'll see the sun plain

Plus the less waterproof will have postal voted. The ebikers will stay at home, apparently the motors can't take UK weather, which will hit the lib Dems.

Heh !

As an owner of 3 pedelecs, that last is one of my candidates for the next diversionary excuse to be adopted by argument-sparse PFAFFERs * on twitter, and the thicker or more dishonest journos in the Telegraph and Spectator, in between knee jerks. I wouldn't drive it through a flood; normal weather is no problem.

I'd love to hear some examples of people who chose not to vote for that reason

For some time now, it has "but no one cycles in the rain" alongside "but road tax" and "but insurance" etc, forgetting that they themselves put a coat on when they take the dog for a walk in November.

* Pfaffers: People Focussed on Autos, Football or Flags, often all three.

Not making it up

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/jun/15/the-big-problem-is-water-uk-ebike-owners-plagued-by-failing-motors

You see I really need to think about transitioning to an EBike in the next few years when my trusty Carrera Crossfire should get its carriage clock, and picture of a spitfire, but this thing (and the huge cost for a bike with a battery) puts me off somewhat.

Would really like to consider a move to electric though, or pedal assist to be precise.

There was a company that did strap on electric motors but they had a terrible reputation so that's a no.

I wasn't implying you were making it up, and I've seen the reports - but they look fairly exceptional to me:

The problem appears to mainly affect those riding mountain bikes in all weathers, particularly in Wales and the UK’s other wettest areas, because they are not sealed properly against water ingress

TBF my pedelecs are 1) Gruber Assist, where the long thin motor is inside the seatpost, 2) Axon Rides E-folder (rear hub drive) and 3) Brompton Swytch Conversion (front hub drive),

1 is really well sealed and I have taken all kinds of places including torrential rain and flooded cycle paths on the IoW (over the lower pedal on a standard cycle, maybe 10-12cm deep) when cycling to Sandown from the ferry, and being forced to go over the hill due to floods, 2 and 3 are not for country-side hacking.

I'd expect potential problems with self-done conversions or maybe mud and flood plugging, and maybe deep fords.

But not on the way to vote !

My current top tips are 1 - Get one early so you don't have to learn it whilst not fit, and 2 - consider one of these .

I bought one of these this spring, which is excellent for the money, and very nice and simple as a popping-around bike because it is single speed and comes with e-drive, lights and horn, and single-sided forks so punctures can be repaired on-bike. And a comfortable ride due to big tyres at lowish pressure. The only issue is that it does 15-20 miles assisted, and as a single speed you do not want to run out of battery.

https://www.decathlon.co.uk/p/mp/axon-rides/axon-rides-pro-electric-folding-bike-dark-grey/

Andy_Cooke

RochdalePioneers said:

I am increasingly confident that the LibDems are going to come second. There are decreasing numbers of polls keeping them in 3 digits, and even those show that they are just about clinging onto a stack of seats. Expect the tactical vote to doom them in those as well.

What's your genie's plan for dealing with the SNP candidate?

Nigelb

Lennon said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I am increasingly confident that the LibDems are going to come second. There are decreasing numbers of polls keeping them in 3 digits, and even those show that they are just about clinging onto a stack of seats. Expect the tactical vote to doom them in those as well.

It too me a while to figure out if you meant the Lib Dems generally, or in your seat specifically...

And whose are the three digits (with which they'd be hard pressed to cling to a stack of seats) ?

Tweedledee

Taz said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Well the country put Boris into number 10, he was a clown. So it is hardly a surprise people would go for another clown over the incumbent.

How dire politics is today.

I Suspect Alan Bates and the Postmasters may have a different view

Do they have a view on the cascade of Tory ministers who failed to do anything about the increasingly obvious issues with the PO after 2015 and until extremely recently? Or just Davey because that’s the meme the right wing press have managed to insuinuate into the collective mind?

Please feel free to ask them. I am sure they have.

Laura K savaged him on Sunday on her politics show about it and he looked very very uncomfortable and she is hardly right wing. Her Father was a donor to the Labour Party.

If Davey gets proper savaged at the inquiry on 18 July his election jolly japery is going to look retrospectively very poor

RochdalePioneers

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I am increasingly confident that the LibDems are going to come second. There are decreasing numbers of polls keeping them in 3 digits, and even those show that they are just about clinging onto a stack of seats. Expect the tactical vote to doom them in those as well.

Is it your Labour candidate that has been dropped by the party? Heard it on the radio this morning.

Yes

TimS

Taz said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Well the country put Boris into number 10, he was a clown. So it is hardly a surprise people would go for another clown over the incumbent.

How dire politics is today.

I Suspect Alan Bates and the Postmasters may have a different view

Do they have a view on the cascade of Tory ministers who failed to do anything about the increasingly obvious issues with the PO after 2015 and until extremely recently? Or just Davey because that’s the meme the right wing press have managed to insuinuate into the collective mind?

Please feel free to ask them. I am sure they have.

Laura K savaged him on Sunday on her politics show about it and he looked very very uncomfortable and she is hardly right wing. Her Father was a donor to the Labour Party.

New political compass multiple choice test.

Do you think that Laura K is "hardly right wing"?

1. Quite so, her father was a Labour donor
2. OK, maybe just a little bit right wing
3. Is there a new meaning for the word "hardly"?

SirNorfolkPassmore

Harris_Tweed said:

Nunu5 said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c51104g80zeo.amp

Labour candidate for Derby South voted out of council leader job

Not the key point, but given the amount of “parachuting”, I’d bet there aren’t many seats with three sitting councillors from the same (relevant) local authority standing!

It's not just parachuting that would result in that.

For incumbents, it's relatively uncommon though not unheard of for someone to double-hat as MP and councillor.

For challengers or new candidates in held seats, it isn't totally obvious that being a councillor is a help rather than a hinderance to your prospects. If you're running the Council, you might well have unpopular decisions pinned on you ("Ah, it's the person who doubled your parking charges and approved the new housing estate you don't like!") If you're not running the Council, it's relatively time consuming and not that high profile.

Add to that the fact that, in many areas of the country, there aren't three parties with councillors who'd make credible candidates. Even if three are represented to some extent, one well only may have a tiny handful of councillors who might be deeply committed to their little corner, but have no real interest in standing for Parliament, can't be bothered reading up on the national policy stuff to go for approval, would struggle to square it with work, are too "interesting" to be viable, or turn 90 next February.

RochdalePioneers

Andy_Cooke said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I am increasingly confident that the LibDems are going to come second. There are decreasing numbers of polls keeping them in 3 digits, and even those show that they are just about clinging onto a stack of seats. Expect the tactical vote to doom them in those as well.

What's your genie's plan for dealing with the SNP candidate?

He's crowing about how the SNP Manifesto makes it clear that the GE is a vote for independence.

Not only is this absurd, it shows how SNP MPs will behave at Westminster. Forget about working cross party and cross government as I am proposing, he will shout at all the evil unionists who don;'t give Scotland independence now.

We need an MP who gets things done. The Tories have failed. The SNP don't care about investment or public services, its just independence. Or make your voices heard and vote for a fair deal with the LibDems...

Tweedledee

MattW said:

Tweedledee said:

MattW said:

Tweedledee said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Just an aside, but it absolutely pissed it down in Yorkshire yesterday. Hours of incredibly heavy rain. Must've been plenty of flooding. Horrendous stuff. Unlikely, but if it recurs on polling day that could affect things a lot.

Don't worry about it, my Yorkshire grandma always told me

If on St Alena's day it pisses with rain
On St Elizabeth of Aragon's day you'll see the sun plain

Plus the less waterproof will have postal voted. The ebikers will stay at home, apparently the motors can't take UK weather, which will hit the lib Dems.

Heh !

As an owner of 3 pedelecs, that last is one of my candidates for the next diversionary excuse to be adopted by argument-sparse PFAFFERs * on twitter, and the thicker or more dishonest journos in the Telegraph and Spectator, in between knee jerks. I wouldn't drive it through a flood; normal weather is no problem.

I'd love to hear some examples of people who chose not to vote for that reason

For some time now, it has "but no one cycles in the rain" alongside "but road tax" and "but insurance" etc, forgetting that they themselves put a coat on when they take the dog for a walk in November.

* Pfaffers: People Focussed on Autos, Football or Flags, often all three.

Not making it up

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/jun/15/the-big-problem-is-water-uk-ebike-owners-plagued-by-failing-motors

You see I really need to think about transitioning to an EBike in the next few years when my trusty Carrera Crossfire should get its carriage clock, and picture of a spitfire, but this thing (and the huge cost for a bike with a battery) puts me off somewhat.

Would really like to consider a move to electric though, or pedal assist to be precise.

There was a company that did strap on electric motors but they had a terrible reputation so that's a no.

I wasn't implying you were making it up, and I've seen the reports - but they look fairly exceptional to me:

The problem appears to mainly affect those riding mountain bikes in all weathers, particularly in Wales and the UK’s other wettest areas, because they are not sealed properly against water ingress

TBF my pedelecs are 1) Gruber Assist, where the long thin motor is inside the seatpost, 2) Axon Rides E-folder (rear hub drive) and 3) Brompton Swytch Conversion (front hub drive),

1 is really well sealed and I have taken all kinds of places including torrential rain and flooded cycle paths on the IoW (over the lower pedal on a standard cycle, maybe 10-12cm deep) when cycling to Sandown from the ferry, and being forced to go over the hill due to floods, 2 and 3 are not for country-side hacking.

I'd expect potential problems with self-done conversions or maybe mud and flood plugging, and maybe deep fords.

But not on the way to vote !

My current top tips are 1 - Get one early so you don't have to learn it whilst not fit, and 2 - consider one of these .

I bought one of these this spring, which is excellent for the money, and very nice and simple as a popping-around bike because it is single speed and comes with e-drive, lights and horn, and single-sided forks so punctures can be repaired on-bike. And a comfortable ride due to big tyres at lowish pressure. The only issue is that it does 15-20 miles assisted, and as a single speed you do not want to run out of battery.

https://www.decathlon.co.uk/p/mp/axon-rides/axon-rides-pro-electric-folding-bike-dark-grey/
EDIT quote system malfunction. I start here:

I was joking and the point was the suggestion that ebike problems differentially affect lib Dems. In fact I think suggestions that weather conditions favour one party or another are bonkers. It's not like Scandinavian countries where elections have to be in summer or nobody can get to the polling station

Nigelb

RochdalePioneers said:

Andy_Cooke said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I am increasingly confident that the LibDems are going to come second. There are decreasing numbers of polls keeping them in 3 digits, and even those show that they are just about clinging onto a stack of seats. Expect the tactical vote to doom them in those as well.

What's your genie's plan for dealing with the SNP candidate?

He's crowing about how the SNP Manifesto makes it clear that the GE is a vote for independence.

Not only is this absurd, it shows how SNP MPs will behave at Westminster. Forget about working cross party and cross government as I am proposing, he will shout at all the evil unionists who don;'t give Scotland independence now.

We need an MP who gets things done. The Tories have failed. The SNP don't care about investment or public services, its just independence. Or make your voices heard and vote for a fair deal with the LibDems...

I applaud PB PPBs.

MattW

MattW said:

Tweedledee said:

MattW said:

Tweedledee said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Just an aside, but it absolutely pissed it down in Yorkshire yesterday. Hours of incredibly heavy rain. Must've been plenty of flooding. Horrendous stuff. Unlikely, but if it recurs on polling day that could affect things a lot.

Don't worry about it, my Yorkshire grandma always told me

If on St Alena's day it pisses with rain
On St Elizabeth of Aragon's day you'll see the sun plain

Plus the less waterproof will have postal voted. The ebikers will stay at home, apparently the motors can't take UK weather, which will hit the lib Dems.

Heh !

As an owner of 3 pedelecs, that last is one of my candidates for the next diversionary excuse to be adopted by argument-sparse PFAFFERs * on twitter, and the thicker or more dishonest journos in the Telegraph and Spectator, in between knee jerks. I wouldn't drive it through a flood; normal weather is no problem.

I'd love to hear some examples of people who chose not to vote for that reason

For some time now, it has "but no one cycles in the rain" alongside "but road tax" and "but insurance" etc, forgetting that they themselves put a coat on when they take the dog for a walk in November.

* Pfaffers: People Focussed on Autos, Football or Flags, often all three.

Not making it up

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/jun/15/the-big-problem-is-water-uk-ebike-owners-plagued-by-failing-motors

You see I really need to think about transitioning to an EBike in the next few years when my trusty Carrera Crossfire should get its carriage clock, and picture of a spitfire, but this thing (and the huge cost for a bike with a battery) puts me off somewhat.

Would really like to consider a move to electric though, or pedal assist to be precise.

There was a company that did strap on electric motors but they had a terrible reputation so that's a no.

I wasn't implying you were making it up, and I've seen the reports - but they look fairly exceptional to me:

The problem appears to mainly affect those riding mountain bikes in all weathers, particularly in Wales and the UK’s other wettest areas, because they are not sealed properly against water ingress

TBF my pedelecs are 1) Gruber Assist, where the long thin motor is inside the seatpost, 2) Axon Rides E-folder (rear hub drive) and 3) Brompton Swytch Conversion (front hub drive),

1 is really well sealed and I have taken all kinds of places including torrential rain and flooded cycle paths on the IoW (over the lower pedal on a standard cycle, maybe 10-12cm deep) when cycling to Sandown from the ferry, and being forced to go over the hill due to floods, 2 and 3 are not for country-side hacking.

I'd expect potential problems with self-done conversions or maybe mud and flood plugging, and maybe deep fords.

But not on the way to vote !

My current top tips are 1 - Get one early so you don't have to learn it whilst not fit, and 2 - consider one of these .

I bought one of these this spring, which is excellent for the money, and very nice and simple as a popping-around bike because it is single speed and comes with e-drive, lights and horn, and single-sided forks so punctures can be repaired on-bike. And a comfortable ride due to big tyres at lowish pressure. The only issue is that it does 15-20 miles assisted, and as a single speed you do not want to run out of battery.

https://www.decathlon.co.uk/p/mp/axon-rides/axon-rides-pro-electric-folding-bike-dark-grey/

Link borked.

I bought it on the basis that it was cheap enough to give up on after 3-4 years, and I have been pleasantly surprised - having done several hundred km so far.

If you consider it, you need the Pro (with hydraulic brakes) not the Pro Lite.

https://www.decathlon.co.uk/p/mp/axon-rides/axon-rides-pro-electric-folding-bike-dark-grey/_/R-p-68064687-1342-4c6a-995d-9fa89d8e5570

Leon

TheScreamingEagles said:

Farage set to win Clacton ‘with biggest swing in modern history’

Reform UK leader on course to get 42% in the Essex seat, a new poll suggests

Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with the biggest swing in modern electoral history, a new poll has suggested.

The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, suggests that Farage will win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex. The Tories are forecast to win 27 per cent and Labour 24 per cent.

Survation, the company that carried out the survey, said the scale of the projected swing from the Tories to Labour would be “extremely rare” and “unprecedented in modern electoral history”.

The seat has been held by Giles Watling, a Conservative, since 2017. In 2019, when Boris Johnson put Brexit at the heart of his campaign, Watling secured a 24,702 majority with 72 per cent of the vote share.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/farage-set-to-win-clacton-with-biggest-swing-in-modern-history-5tzjsmtw6

HUZZAH

SirNorfolkPassmore

Taz said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Well the country put Boris into number 10, he was a clown. So it is hardly a surprise people would go for another clown over the incumbent.

How dire politics is today.

I Suspect Alan Bates and the Postmasters may have a different view

Do they have a view on the cascade of Tory ministers who failed to do anything about the increasingly obvious issues with the PO after 2015 and until extremely recently? Or just Davey because that’s the meme the right wing press have managed to insuinuate into the collective mind?

Please feel free to ask them. I am sure they have.

Laura K savaged him on Sunday on her politics show about it and he looked very very uncomfortable and she is hardly right wing. Her Father was a donor to the Labour Party.

Yes, because good daughters ALWAYS slavishly follow the political leanings of their fathers, for fear that thinking for themselves on such matters could lead to giddiness, hysteria, and a lifetime as a spinster. That goes as much for daughters who are senior political correspondents as anyone else.

I mean, I understand Liz Truss famously only became PM to please her rabidly Tory father...

Leon

TheScreamingEagles said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Harris_Tweed said:

Objectively hilarious that Sunak trounces Farage!

Starmer beats Farage by 2:1 in a head to head, too. PB extremely right wing people please explain!

I'm still waiting for an explanation from Leon on why Sir Keir Starmer and Gareth Southgate are more popular than Nigel Farage.

Britain is fucked, is my explanation

Northern_Al

TheScreamingEagles said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Harris_Tweed said:

Objectively hilarious that Sunak trounces Farage!

Starmer beats Farage by 2:1 in a head to head, too. PB extremely right wing people please explain!

I'm still waiting for an explanation from Leon on why Sir Keir Starmer and Gareth Southgate are more popular than Nigel Farage.

He'll no doubt attribute it to the fact that both Starmer and Southgate took the knee in support of BLM, while Farage didn't.

Taz

TimS said:

Taz said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Well the country put Boris into number 10, he was a clown. So it is hardly a surprise people would go for another clown over the incumbent.

How dire politics is today.

I Suspect Alan Bates and the Postmasters may have a different view

Do they have a view on the cascade of Tory ministers who failed to do anything about the increasingly obvious issues with the PO after 2015 and until extremely recently? Or just Davey because that’s the meme the right wing press have managed to insuinuate into the collective mind?

Please feel free to ask them. I am sure they have.

Laura K savaged him on Sunday on her politics show about it and he looked very very uncomfortable and she is hardly right wing. Her Father was a donor to the Labour Party.

New political compass multiple choice test.

Do you think that Laura K is "hardly right wing"?

1. Quite so, her father was a Labour donor
2. OK, maybe just a little bit right wing
3. Is there a new meaning for the word "hardly"?

She is professional. She may or may not be right wing personally but she is not professionally. She exhibits no right wing bias in what she does. She is not as good as Victoria Derbyshire when she filled in for her but that is a different matter.

This whole nonsense about her being a Tory plant/right winger started with deluded Corbynites being far from satisfied she was not North Korean in her level of deference to him.

jamesdoyle

For those keeping track, my bookshop will be changing its name tomorrow. New signage is coming today!
As a final clue, here (hopefully) is the sign/logo with the name removed. See what you say...

Chameleon

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Harris_Tweed said:

Objectively hilarious that Sunak trounces Farage!

Starmer beats Farage by 2:1 in a head to head, too. PB extremely right wing people please explain!

It doesn't matter who Green or LD voters prefer. As I said earlier all that matters for Farage is his popularity in the rightmost 35%.

E.g. in the cross tabs Farage wins 40-38 for 2019 Con, while Sunak wins 63-3 among 2019 LDs

kjh

RochdalePioneers said:

I am increasingly confident that the LibDems are going to come second. There are decreasing numbers of polls keeping them in 3 digits, and even those show that they are just about clinging onto a stack of seats. Expect the tactical vote to doom them in those as well.

It would be good to hear back from seats where the LDs would normally be challengers, but are not targets. Interesting feedback so far from @Nova and @LloydBanks. Hopefully the national party will be ensuring some national leaflets get their way (without being obviously targeting specific seats). We are a top target and I have only received one national leaflet so far.

@RochdalePioneers I see you are doing a cracking job of ensuring your competition is nobbled. Two more to go. Just remember if the Tory/SNP candidate falls under a steam roller the election is deferred and you don't win by default.

TheScreamingEagles

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Farage set to win Clacton ‘with biggest swing in modern history’

Reform UK leader on course to get 42% in the Essex seat, a new poll suggests

Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with the biggest swing in modern electoral history, a new poll has suggested.

The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, suggests that Farage will win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex. The Tories are forecast to win 27 per cent and Labour 24 per cent.

Survation, the company that carried out the survey, said the scale of the projected swing from the Tories to Labour would be “extremely rare” and “unprecedented in modern electoral history”.

The seat has been held by Giles Watling, a Conservative, since 2017. In 2019, when Boris Johnson put Brexit at the heart of his campaign, Watling secured a 24,702 majority with 72 per cent of the vote share.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/farage-set-to-win-clacton-with-biggest-swing-in-modern-history-5tzjsmtw6

HUZZAH

I cannot work out why you are applauding a party of Putin shills doing well.

Tres

Taz said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Well the country put Boris into number 10, he was a clown. So it is hardly a surprise people would go for another clown over the incumbent.

How dire politics is today.

I Suspect Alan Bates and the Postmasters may have a different view

Do they have a view on the cascade of Tory ministers who failed to do anything about the increasingly obvious issues with the PO after 2015 and until extremely recently? Or just Davey because that’s the meme the right wing press have managed to insuinuate into the collective mind?

Please feel free to ask them. I am sure they have.

Laura K savaged him on Sunday on her politics show about it and he looked very very uncomfortable and she is hardly right wing. Her Father was a donor to the Labour Party.

New political compass multiple choice test.

Do you think that Laura K is "hardly right wing"?

1. Quite so, her father was a Labour donor
2. OK, maybe just a little bit right wing
3. Is there a new meaning for the word "hardly"?

She is professional. She may or may not be right wing personally but she is not professionally. She exhibits no right wing bias in what she does. She is not as good as Victoria Derbyshire when she filled in for her but that is a different matter.

This whole nonsense about her being a Tory plant/right winger started with deluded Corbynites being far from satisfied she was not North Korean in her level of deference to him.

Christ, I'll have some of whatever you are on please.

Theuniondivvie

Tweedledee said:

Taz said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Well the country put Boris into number 10, he was a clown. So it is hardly a surprise people would go for another clown over the incumbent.

How dire politics is today.

I Suspect Alan Bates and the Postmasters may have a different view

Do they have a view on the cascade of Tory ministers who failed to do anything about the increasingly obvious issues with the PO after 2015 and until extremely recently? Or just Davey because that’s the meme the right wing press have managed to insuinuate into the collective mind?

Please feel free to ask them. I am sure they have.

Laura K savaged him on Sunday on her politics show about it and he looked very very uncomfortable and she is hardly right wing. Her Father was a donor to the Labour Party.

If Davey gets proper savaged at the inquiry on 18 July his election jolly japery is going to look retrospectively very poor

If he wears a wetsuit I’m sure Sir Jason will be entirely disarmed.

Nigelb

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Farage set to win Clacton ‘with biggest swing in modern history’

Reform UK leader on course to get 42% in the Essex seat, a new poll suggests

Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with the biggest swing in modern electoral history, a new poll has suggested.

The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, suggests that Farage will win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex. The Tories are forecast to win 27 per cent and Labour 24 per cent.

Survation, the company that carried out the survey, said the scale of the projected swing from the Tories to Labour would be “extremely rare” and “unprecedented in modern electoral history”.

The seat has been held by Giles Watling, a Conservative, since 2017. In 2019, when Boris Johnson put Brexit at the heart of his campaign, Watling secured a 24,702 majority with 72 per cent of the vote share.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/farage-set-to-win-clacton-with-biggest-swing-in-modern-history-5tzjsmtw6

HUZZAH

I cannot work out why you are applauding a party of Putin shills doing well.

Too much time on X ?

Someone should tell Leon series 4 of The Boys is out.
He's clearly bored.

Theuniondivvie

jamesdoyle said:

For those keeping track, my bookshop will be changing its name tomorrow. New signage is coming today!
As a final clue, here (hopefully) is the sign/logo with the name removed. See what you say...

Raven Books?

Leon

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Farage set to win Clacton ‘with biggest swing in modern history’

Reform UK leader on course to get 42% in the Essex seat, a new poll suggests

Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with the biggest swing in modern electoral history, a new poll has suggested.

The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, suggests that Farage will win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex. The Tories are forecast to win 27 per cent and Labour 24 per cent.

Survation, the company that carried out the survey, said the scale of the projected swing from the Tories to Labour would be “extremely rare” and “unprecedented in modern electoral history”.

The seat has been held by Giles Watling, a Conservative, since 2017. In 2019, when Boris Johnson put Brexit at the heart of his campaign, Watling secured a 24,702 majority with 72 per cent of the vote share.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/farage-set-to-win-clacton-with-biggest-swing-in-modern-history-5tzjsmtw6

HUZZAH

I cannot work out why you are applauding a party of Putin shills doing well.

To wind up PB?

It's not unknown