Come on Scotland. For Malc, Farooq, TheUnionDivie, Carnyx, Burgessian, Rochdale (lol) and any Scots posters I’ve missed. And most of all for Gordon Brown, may a little happiness finally enter your life. Just remembered DavidL, sorry, I keep thinking you are English.
I'm sorry I missed this because I could have told you what was going to happen. In fact, I did, numerous times over the past few weeks. Oh well. No surprises. Nice for Scotland to be back and to have scored a goal. Two more matches, we'll enjoy it regardless.
We all knew what was going to happen, as an English Tory I have hope of a surprise victory and transposed it to the Scottish football team. Alas it will be the same shattered dreams and own goals and red cards. Such is life.
Left foot studs up while he went for the ball with the right foot. Stupid challenge for 2024. The referee wouldn't even have stopped the game in Argentina '78.
Double Jeopardy though with a red card and penalty. A yellow would be fair.
I agree, but letter of the law is studs on ankle red card. Shin pads and no cards back in our day!
Two footed sliding tackle in the box was always a red at this level. Well, since I’ve been watching from the late 80s.
I suggest you watch Don Revie's Leeds squad from 1971 or Johnny Giles' promotion winning West Brom side from 1976.
Heh. Yeah before my time sadly. But have seen the Brian Clough views on that Leeds side. “You won them all by cheating”.
They really did.
Big Jack, Bremner, Norman Hunter, Johnny Giles were all absolutely dirty barsteward, but then Leeds weren't alone, Bryan Kidd, Alan Ball, Francis Lee, Nobby Styles were very dirty too.
OT. It appears the RAF are expecting a big expansin in recruitment over the next few years. RAF Cranwell, the training college a few miles north of where I live, is almost trebling its capacity through new building and refurbishment.
Let's face it, Starmer is rubbish. A grotesque failure. He inherited a party following a catastrophic defeat in 2019, and has done absolutely nothing to turn it around. He is no Tony Blair. Indeed, until recently he was Jeremy Corbyn's biggest fan. However, by sheer fortune, he is likely to end up being PM shortly, but only because of the incompetence of the Tories and a divided opposition.
And, to compound his uselessness, he is now doing everything he can, even before he's PM, to make sure Labour suffer another catastrophic defeat in 2029. Even though it hasn't happened yet, we all know he's a rubbish PM. He won't even prosecute Jimmy Savile, I'll bet.
Have I got all that right?
You missed was a bit of a shagger. And the donkey and Diane Abbott.
And eating curry. And drinking beer. At some point. But I can’t remember the timeline.
He didn't eat curry he had a korma, its the alcohol free version of curry
Did he actually have a Korma?
I actually have no idea admittedly I assumed so when people started calling him sir keir korma
Sadly, I think it was just a play on words. Starmer looks to be like the kind of guy who'd have a Lamb Rogan.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
Possible. In 2019 Johnson was master of all he surveyed. He didn't even last one term.
A much more flawed character. Starmer is far more organised and capable.
Actually I could see Starmer "going on and on", to quote another prime minister he strangely resembles.
But he can't. He's 61.
PMs can look pretty invincible, yet in 130 years only two have managed a decade. It's actually quite impressive how democratic states can manage to avoid individuals going on and on even without term limits to enforce it.
Starmer will not be very old come 2028/2029. He should have a large enough buffer to win a second term (but then again so did Boris, albeit with greater years of baggage) unless he completely collapses and the Tories have a spectacular recovery, but even if he manages it, very few leaders would last out even to 8-9 years.
I wouldn't be surprised if Starmer called it quits after one term, our political leaders seem to go in for short careers in recent decades, but I think he'll manage a re-election and last at least a little beyond - a big win, an opposition which will probably be figuring things out, and 'blame the last government' working relatively well in a first term should see him through.
I'd expect Mr Starmer to want to be sure that he leaves a generation of competent ministers to follow up.
I'm not sure how I'd get the data easily, but I wonder how many experienced former Govt Ministers Labour will have in Parliament after the Election?
Remember this being discussed a lot on here at the time, but after 15 years Jan Moir clears up *that* column about the late Stephen Gately, via a hit piece on Wes Streeting
This is the bi-annual occasion in which one can taunt all the GDS fanboys who claim that we have the best government website in the world with "ok, find the newly published honours list then".
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
Except that in his policy making like the quadruple lock and the dumping of mandatory housing targets etc, Sunak has consistently been making our problems worse not better.
Sunak is the worst of the PMs we've had.
I don't think this is right. Truss obviously worse, and on the face of it Sunak seems to have some sort of set of ideas in mind.
However he was (in my view) very poor as chancellor, and his 'across the numbers' ghastliness seems to differ from the truth - I really doubt he is. Sunak seems very poor all round.
Bear in mind the Yougov question which started this discussion was not who was the worst of the last 5 PMs. The question was:
"If the Conservative party loses the election in July, which of their prime ministers since 2010 do you think will be most responsible?"
For me that is clearly Sunak.
For me it’s Johnson. A divisive figure who was driven solely by his own ambition. Hollowed out his party, brought in alot of low grade MPs and crony Lords, drove a prospectus that was unrealistic, repeatedly lied to the people and took them for fools, behaved as if he wasn’t bound by his own or any other rules and so on. He set expectations that couldn’t be met, as per the huckster he is.
- I think it’s rather sad that the only way you can deal with the present is to imagine / hope for a future that is so uncertain
- History doesn’t support your view that a (let’s say) 150 seat majority can be overturned in one term. So, realistically, if (IF) Labour take a 150+ seat maj then will be in power for 9-10 years minimum
- They, and the country, start from such a low base (as does your party) that I think you are detaching yourself from the reality of what is taking place as a psychological device. It’s a flight reaction.
Do you not see how quoting historical precedents is useful, but not a slam dunk given the distant lack of precedented times since 2015?
Things are more in flux.
Consider that on these boundaries you are currently watching an adjusted Tory majority of over 100 completely reversed.
I wonder, will a Labour government decide to ‘revise’ many or all of the recent changes to the electoral system.
It would be good to see them dumping the stupid ID requirements for in person voting but also tighten the rules on postal voting. These are easy things to do which require little time or money but which would be worth doing because they are 'right' for democracy.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
Except that in his policy making like the quadruple lock and the dumping of mandatory housing targets etc, Sunak has consistently been making our problems worse not better.
Sunak is the worst of the PMs we've had.
I don't think this is right. Truss obviously worse, and on the face of it Sunak seems to have some sort of set of ideas in mind.
However he was (in my view) very poor as chancellor, and his 'across the numbers' ghastliness seems to differ from the truth - I really doubt he is. Sunak seems very poor all round.
Bear in mind the Yougov question which started this discussion was not who was the worst of the last 5 PMs. The question was:
"If the Conservative party loses the election in July, which of their prime ministers since 2010 do you think will be most responsible?"
For me that is clearly Sunak.
For me it’s Johnson. A divisive figure who was driven solely by his own ambition. Hollowed out his party, brought in alot of low grade MPs and crony Lords, drove a prospectus that was unrealistic, repeatedly lied to the people and took them for fools, behaved as if he wasn’t bound by his own or any other rules and so on. He set expectations that couldn’t be met, as per the huckster he is.
The blame is shared in various ways. Johnson is, as you say, a huckster, as well as being corrupt and incompetent. Truss is unhinged. May had appalling judgement. Cameron had no interest in the hard, but necessary parts of government, defence, justice, and border control. He also recruited some very flakey candidates. Sunak has no vision beyond his spreadsheets, and is a terrible political campaigner. All of them believed in funnelling money to existing supporters, without caring where new supporters would come from.
France’s four main leftwing parties have agreed to form a “New Popular Front” (NPF) to contest the snap election, as the far-right leader Marine Le Pen said she would seek a “national unity government” if her National Rally (RN) wins.
The Socialist party (PS), Greens, Communists and France Unbowed (LFI), led by the hard-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, will campaign on a common platform and field a single joint candidate in each of the 577 parliamentary constituencies.
“A new page in the history of France has been written,” they said in a joint statement. Mélenchon tweeted his “warmest congratulations and thanks to our negotiators who had four sleepless nights” deciding on the programme and 577 candidates.
In theory, the four groups combined slightly outpolled the RN in the European Parliament elections, it might increase the number of triangular duels in the second round as a combined candidate could cross the 12.5% of the electorate threshold where individual PS, EELV, LFI and PCF candidates wouldn't.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
Except that in his policy making like the quadruple lock and the dumping of mandatory housing targets etc, Sunak has consistently been making our problems worse not better.
Sunak is the worst of the PMs we've had.
I don't think this is right. Truss obviously worse, and on the face of it Sunak seems to have some sort of set of ideas in mind.
However he was (in my view) very poor as chancellor, and his 'across the numbers' ghastliness seems to differ from the truth - I really doubt he is. Sunak seems very poor all round.
Bear in mind the Yougov question which started this discussion was not who was the worst of the last 5 PMs. The question was:
"If the Conservative party loses the election in July, which of their prime ministers since 2010 do you think will be most responsible?"
For me that is clearly Sunak.
For me it’s Johnson. A divisive figure who was driven solely by his own ambition. Hollowed out his party, brought in alot of low grade MPs and crony Lords, drove a prospectus that was unrealistic, repeatedly lied to the people and took them for fools, behaved as if he wasn’t bound by his own or any other rules and so on. He set expectations that couldn’t be met, as per the huckster he is.
The blame is shared in various ways. Johnson is, as you say, a huckster, as well as being corrupt and incompetent. Truss is unhinged. May had appalling judgement. Cameron had no interest in the hard, but necessary parts of government, defence, justice, and border control. He also recruited some very flakey candidates. Sunak has no vision beyond his spreadsheets, and is a terrible political campaigner. All of them believed in funnelling money to existing supporters, without caring where new supporters would come from.
France’s four main leftwing parties have agreed to form a “New Popular Front” (NPF) to contest the snap election, as the far-right leader Marine Le Pen said she would seek a “national unity government” if her National Rally (RN) wins.
The Socialist party (PS), Greens, Communists and France Unbowed (LFI), led by the hard-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, will campaign on a common platform and field a single joint candidate in each of the 577 parliamentary constituencies.
“A new page in the history of France has been written,” they said in a joint statement. Mélenchon tweeted his “warmest congratulations and thanks to our negotiators who had four sleepless nights” deciding on the programme and 577 candidates.
In theory, the four groups combined slightly outpolled the RN in the European Parliament elections, it might increase the number of triangular duels in the second round as a combined candidate could cross the 12.5% of the electorate threshold where individual PS, EELV, LFI and PCF candidates wouldn't.
It seems to me that the centre will be squeezed by the left bloc and RN, and on current ratings, will struggle to reach the 12.5% threshold to take part in round 2, in many seats. I’d expect almost all other right voters to support RN in round 2, in preference to the Left.
Good morning all. After their heavy defeat there will be a LOT more articles like that Sp!ked one about the demise of the Conservative Party. They will be soul-searching what went wrong and what they were about.
It’s likely they will lurch to the Right, possibly in cahoots with Reform, and there they will remain in the wilderness.
Eventually, and it will take 2 or 3 defeats for them to come to their senses, they will fight the centre ground again. Why? Because that is always where elections are won or lost in Britain. Go hard Left (Corbyn, Foot) or hard Right (Major 97, Truss, Hague, Sunak) and you lose. The British people don’t like extremes which is why people like @Leon are now so homeless.
@biggles@Casino_Royale et al, backed by that soothsayer extraordinaire Leon, are telling themselves that because one sea-change election is about to happen it means another can too very shortly. This fundamentally misreads the mood of the nation and what seachange means. It’s about a re-alignment and it happened in 1979 and again in 1997. It’s about to happen in 2024.
There will not be another Conservative Government, or indeed anything Farage-related, for at least a decade and probably 15 years.
Leon, of course, is currently out down a MAGA-inspired conspiracy-infested apocalyptic and anarchistic rabbit hole so I would advise the others I’ve named, to which I’ll add @Luckyguy1983 and @MarqueeMark , not to get into bed with him down there. You at least have brains and common sense, so use them well and use them wisely. This country will need your party back and it will need you back in the centre-right.
I won’t tell you that I know I’m right but I will point out that I was the first on this forum to predict the coming Labour landslide.
The Conservatives will eventually return to power. Why so? Because Labour usually over spend and lose fiscal responsibility and that, until the last 5 years, was the Conservative Party’s trump card. But it won’t be for a generation. You blew it. You lost the country’s trust, crucially on the economy. That’s what this sea-change is all about.
The person most responsible for the decline of the Conservative government is Xi Jinping.
- Destroyed the rule of law in Hong Kong, producing immigration to the UK - Had the bright idea of promoting the domestication of wildlife, leading to a huge pandemic, totally botched the response, crashed his own economy, wrecked global supply chains and produced inflation - Gave Putin the nod to invade Ukraine when any sensible leader would have told him not to be an idiot, causing more immigration to the UK and even more inflation
The RCP cadres behind Spiked Online have been the most effective entryists in British political history. What a genius move they made by infiltrating the right wing rather than the left.
The person most responsible for the decline of the Conservative government is Xi Jinping.
- Destroyed the rule of law in Hong Kong, producing immigration to the UK - Had the bright idea of promoting the domestication of wildlife, leading to a huge pandemic, totally botched the response, crashed his own economy, wrecked global supply chains and produced inflation - Gave Putin the nod to invade Ukraine when any sensible leader would have told him not to be an idiot, causing more immigration to the UK and even more inflation
The wars in, and destabilisation of Libya and Syria are arguably bigger enablers of mass immigration into Europe.
Labour is now explicitly ruling out putting Capital Gains Tax on people’s main homes.
Labour spokesman: “No. Labour will not introduce capital gains taxes on primary residences. It’s a bad idea.”
===
Of course they are. It is electoral suicide.
But would be an excellent idea to reduce the insanity in the housing market. And would be a much fairer tax than stamp duty as it would be levied on the profits made by the seller.
They’re not going to add CGT to primary residences, because the plan is to abolish CGT completely and treat capital gains as income for taxation purposes?
Wonder how Sir Alan Bates feels about his knighthood. He's essentially a humble man who always considers the interests of his fellow SPMs first. He's not one of life's headline-grabbers. I suppose he feels that accepting will help the cause?
Any polls due over the weekend, or are we all focused on the football now? I suppose if you are Scottish some polls would be a welcome distraction. Shame they don't have a trophy for the best fans - Scots would win hands down.
France’s four main leftwing parties have agreed to form a “New Popular Front” (NPF) to contest the snap election, as the far-right leader Marine Le Pen said she would seek a “national unity government” if her National Rally (RN) wins.
The Socialist party (PS), Greens, Communists and France Unbowed (LFI), led by the hard-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, will campaign on a common platform and field a single joint candidate in each of the 577 parliamentary constituencies.
“A new page in the history of France has been written,” they said in a joint statement. Mélenchon tweeted his “warmest congratulations and thanks to our negotiators who had four sleepless nights” deciding on the programme and 577 candidates.
In theory, the four groups combined slightly outpolled the RN in the European Parliament elections, it might increase the number of triangular duels in the second round as a combined candidate could cross the 12.5% of the electorate threshold where individual PS, EELV, LFI and PCF candidates wouldn't.
It seems to me that the centre will be squeezed by the left bloc and RN, and on current ratings, will struggle to reach the 12.5% threshold to take part in round 2, in many seats. I’d expect almost all other right voters to support RN in round 2, in preference to the Left.
So poor/warped is my understanding of French politics that I essentially only pay attention to the presidency and have no idea how their national assembly/PM works.
I've always essentially thought them to be a supplicant.
The person most responsible for the decline of the Conservative government is Xi Jinping.
- Destroyed the rule of law in Hong Kong, producing immigration to the UK - Had the bright idea of promoting the domestication of wildlife, leading to a huge pandemic, totally botched the response, crashed his own economy, wrecked global supply chains and produced inflation - Gave Putin the nod to invade Ukraine when any sensible leader would have told him not to be an idiot, causing more immigration to the UK and even more inflation
The wars in, and destabilisation of Libya and Syria are arguably bigger enablers of mass immigration into Europe.
Good morning all. After their heavy defeat there will be a LOT more articles like that Sp!ked one about the demise of the Conservative Party. They will be soul-searching what went wrong and what they were about.
It’s likely they will lurch to the Right, possibly in cahoots with Reform, and there they will remain in the wilderness.
Eventually, and it will take 2 or 3 defeats for them to come to their senses, they will fight the centre ground again. Why? Because that is always where elections are won or lost in Britain. Go hard Left (Corbyn, Foot) or hard Right (Major 97, Truss, Hague, Sunak) and you lose. The British people don’t like extremes which is why people like @Leon are now so homeless.
@biggles@Casino_Royale et al, backed by that soothsayer extraordinaire Leon, are telling themselves that because one sea-change election is about to happen it means another can too very shortly. This fundamentally misreads the mood of the nation and what seachange means. It’s about a re-alignment and it happened in 1979 and again in 1997. It’s about to happen in 2024.
There will not be another Conservative Government, or indeed anything Farage-related, for at least a decade and probably 15 years.
Leon, of course, is currently out down a MAGA-inspired conspiracy-infested apocalyptic and anarchistic rabbit hole so I would advise the others I’ve named, to which I’ll add @Luckyguy1983 and @MarqueeMark , not to get into bed with him down there. You at least have brains and common sense, so use them well and use them wisely. This country will need your party back and it will need you back in the centre-right.
I won’t tell you that I know I’m right but I will point out that I was the first on this forum to predict the coming Labour landslide.
The Conservatives will eventually return to power. Why so? Because Labour usually over spend and lose fiscal responsibility and that, until the last 5 years, was the Conservative Party’s trump card. But it won’t be for a generation. You blew it. You lost the country’s trust, crucially on the economy. That’s what this sea-change is all about.
Have you tried going for a run in the morning instead?
The person most responsible for the decline of the Conservative government is Xi Jinping.
- Destroyed the rule of law in Hong Kong, producing immigration to the UK - Had the bright idea of promoting the domestication of wildlife, leading to a huge pandemic, totally botched the response, crashed his own economy, wrecked global supply chains and produced inflation - Gave Putin the nod to invade Ukraine when any sensible leader would have told him not to be an idiot, causing more immigration to the UK and even more inflation
The wars in, and destabilisation of Libya and Syria are arguably bigger enablers of mass immigration into Europe.
Sorry folks but the stats for the UK are pretty clear. The top 5 countries for non-EU long term migration to the UK are:
India Nigeria China Pakistan Zimbabwe
Immigration from these countries has exploded, but only since COVID-19 and far outstrips the fall of EU migration. You'd struggle to blame Xi Jinping or Libya/Syria or Ukraine for that. It's kinda astonishing that this performatively right-wing government has let it happen.
For those coming over in the boats, it's a much a smaller number of Afghans, Iranians, Turks.
The person most responsible for the decline of the Conservative government is Xi Jinping.
- Destroyed the rule of law in Hong Kong, producing immigration to the UK - Had the bright idea of promoting the domestication of wildlife, leading to a huge pandemic, totally botched the response, crashed his own economy, wrecked global supply chains and produced inflation - Gave Putin the nod to invade Ukraine when any sensible leader would have told him not to be an idiot, causing more immigration to the UK and even more inflation
The wars in, and destabilisation of Libya and Syria are arguably bigger enablers of mass immigration into Europe.
Add Iraq and Afghanistan to that.
In the case of Afghanistan, millions fled the Taliban, but many returned when they were overthrown in 2001. Now, they’re fleeing them again.
The person most responsible for the decline of the Conservative government is Xi Jinping.
- Destroyed the rule of law in Hong Kong, producing immigration to the UK - Had the bright idea of promoting the domestication of wildlife, leading to a huge pandemic, totally botched the response, crashed his own economy, wrecked global supply chains and produced inflation - Gave Putin the nod to invade Ukraine when any sensible leader would have told him not to be an idiot, causing more immigration to the UK and even more inflation
The wars in, and destabilisation of Libya and Syria are arguably bigger enablers of mass immigration into Europe.
Climate change is going to be the next big driver of migration, though that too will be a cause of wars.
Channel 4 News has had some great reporting this week from lesser reported wars in Myanmar and Sudan. 10 million internal refugees in Sudan now.
Good morning all. After their heavy defeat there will be a LOT more articles like that Sp!ked one about the demise of the Conservative Party. They will be soul-searching what went wrong and what they were about.
It’s likely they will lurch to the Right, possibly in cahoots with Reform, and there they will remain in the wilderness.
Eventually, and it will take 2 or 3 defeats for them to come to their senses, they will fight the centre ground again. Why? Because that is always where elections are won or lost in Britain. Go hard Left (Corbyn, Foot) or hard Right (Major 97, Truss, Hague, Sunak) and you lose. The British people don’t like extremes which is why people like @Leon are now so homeless.
@biggles@Casino_Royale et al, backed by that soothsayer extraordinaire Leon, are telling themselves that because one sea-change election is about to happen it means another can too very shortly. This fundamentally misreads the mood of the nation and what seachange means. It’s about a re-alignment and it happened in 1979 and again in 1997. It’s about to happen in 2024.
There will not be another Conservative Government, or indeed anything Farage-related, for at least a decade and probably 15 years.
Leon, of course, is currently out down a MAGA-inspired conspiracy-infested apocalyptic and anarchistic rabbit hole so I would advise the others I’ve named, to which I’ll add @Luckyguy1983 and @MarqueeMark , not to get into bed with him down there. You at least have brains and common sense, so use them well and use them wisely. This country will need your party back and it will need you back in the centre-right.
I won’t tell you that I know I’m right but I will point out that I was the first on this forum to predict the coming Labour landslide.
The Conservatives will eventually return to power. Why so? Because Labour usually over spend and lose fiscal responsibility and that, until the last 5 years, was the Conservative Party’s trump card. But it won’t be for a generation. You blew it. You lost the country’s trust, crucially on the economy. That’s what this sea-change is all about.
France’s four main leftwing parties have agreed to form a “New Popular Front” (NPF) to contest the snap election, as the far-right leader Marine Le Pen said she would seek a “national unity government” if her National Rally (RN) wins.
The Socialist party (PS), Greens, Communists and France Unbowed (LFI), led by the hard-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, will campaign on a common platform and field a single joint candidate in each of the 577 parliamentary constituencies.
“A new page in the history of France has been written,” they said in a joint statement. Mélenchon tweeted his “warmest congratulations and thanks to our negotiators who had four sleepless nights” deciding on the programme and 577 candidates.
In theory, the four groups combined slightly outpolled the RN in the European Parliament elections, it might increase the number of triangular duels in the second round as a combined candidate could cross the 12.5% of the electorate threshold where individual PS, EELV, LFI and PCF candidates wouldn't.
It seems to me that the centre will be squeezed by the left bloc and RN, and on current ratings, will struggle to reach the 12.5% threshold to take part in round 2, in many seats. I’d expect almost all other right voters to support RN in round 2, in preference to the Left.
So poor/warped is my understanding of French politics that I essentially only pay attention to the presidency and have no idea how their national assembly/PM works.
I've always essentially thought them to be a supplicant.
The President actually has few formal powers, but by convention, he controls foreign policy and defence. And because of his huge mandate, he enjoys great prestige.
If RN or the Left win the election, they’ll set the domestic agenda till 2027, when the next Presidential election takes place. The new President can then call a fresh legislative election.
Anyone who wins 50% on round 1 is elected. If not, there’s a run off, in which any candidate who wins 12.5% of the electorate (not just those who voted), can take part. The centre are on 18%, and if they retain that, they’ll fall short of qualifying for round 2, in many seats.
The person most responsible for the decline of the Conservative government is Xi Jinping.
- Destroyed the rule of law in Hong Kong, producing immigration to the UK - Had the bright idea of promoting the domestication of wildlife, leading to a huge pandemic, totally botched the response, crashed his own economy, wrecked global supply chains and produced inflation - Gave Putin the nod to invade Ukraine when any sensible leader would have told him not to be an idiot, causing more immigration to the UK and even more inflation
The wars in, and destabilisation of Libya and Syria are arguably bigger enablers of mass immigration into Europe.
Sorry folks but the stats for the UK are pretty clear. The top 5 countries for non-EU long term migration to the UK are:
India Nigeria China Pakistan Zimbabwe
Immigration from these countries has exploded, but only since COVID-19 and far outstrips the fall of EU migration. You'd struggle to blame Xi Jinping or Libya/Syria or Ukraine for that. It's kinda astonishing that this performatively right-wing government has let it happen.
For those coming over in the boats, it's a much a smaller number of Afghans, Iranians, Turks.
I would expect Farage to focus heavily on the level of legal migration in the closing stages of the campaign.
Very difficult for the Tories to counter attacks on that score, given their strategy of weaponising xenophobia over the past few years. Talk about being hoist with your own petard!
France’s four main leftwing parties have agreed to form a “New Popular Front” (NPF) to contest the snap election, as the far-right leader Marine Le Pen said she would seek a “national unity government” if her National Rally (RN) wins.
The Socialist party (PS), Greens, Communists and France Unbowed (LFI), led by the hard-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, will campaign on a common platform and field a single joint candidate in each of the 577 parliamentary constituencies.
“A new page in the history of France has been written,” they said in a joint statement. Mélenchon tweeted his “warmest congratulations and thanks to our negotiators who had four sleepless nights” deciding on the programme and 577 candidates.
In theory, the four groups combined slightly outpolled the RN in the European Parliament elections, it might increase the number of triangular duels in the second round as a combined candidate could cross the 12.5% of the electorate threshold where individual PS, EELV, LFI and PCF candidates wouldn't.
It seems to me that the centre will be squeezed by the left bloc and RN, and on current ratings, will struggle to reach the 12.5% threshold to take part in round 2, in many seats. I’d expect almost all other right voters to support RN in round 2, in preference to the Left.
So poor/warped is my understanding of French politics that I essentially only pay attention to the presidency and have no idea how their national assembly/PM works.
I've always essentially thought them to be a supplicant.
It's most similar to the US President, the National Assembly and Senate pass the laws so the President can't do any hard governing against a hostile legislature. Macron can veto a bill, but only once to send it back and say "think about it again" if both houses pass it again then Macron's stuck with it. The President has the authority to hire (but not fire) the Prime Minister, but again is limited to someone who can command the majority of the Assembly and can dissolve the whole Assembly, but is stuck with the one elected until it's been in session a year.
The person most responsible for the decline of the Conservative government is Xi Jinping.
- Destroyed the rule of law in Hong Kong, producing immigration to the UK - Had the bright idea of promoting the domestication of wildlife, leading to a huge pandemic, totally botched the response, crashed his own economy, wrecked global supply chains and produced inflation - Gave Putin the nod to invade Ukraine when any sensible leader would have told him not to be an idiot, causing more immigration to the UK and even more inflation
The wars in, and destabilisation of Libya and Syria are arguably bigger enablers of mass immigration into Europe.
Sorry folks but the stats for the UK are pretty clear. The top 5 countries for non-EU long term migration to the UK are:
India Nigeria China Pakistan Zimbabwe
Immigration from these countries has exploded, but only since COVID-19 and far outstrips the fall of EU migration. You'd struggle to blame Xi Jinping or Libya/Syria or Ukraine for that.
For those coming over in the boats, it's a much a smaller number of Afghans, Iranians, Turks.
In absolute terms, I think Moroccans and Algerians are among the largest immigrant communities in the EU, but accurate statistics seem quite hard to come by.
This is the bi-annual occasion in which one can taunt all the GDS fanboys who claim that we have the best government website in the world with "ok, find the newly published honours list then".
From the front page of https://www.gov.uk/ hit News, and it’s the second link on the News page.
OT. It appears the RAF are expecting a big expansin in recruitment over the next few years. RAF Cranwell, the training college a few miles north of where I live, is almost trebling its capacity through new building and refurbishment.
A lot of Ukrainian air force pilots to be trained.
The person most responsible for the decline of the Conservative government is Xi Jinping.
- Destroyed the rule of law in Hong Kong, producing immigration to the UK - Had the bright idea of promoting the domestication of wildlife, leading to a huge pandemic, totally botched the response, crashed his own economy, wrecked global supply chains and produced inflation - Gave Putin the nod to invade Ukraine when any sensible leader would have told him not to be an idiot, causing more immigration to the UK and even more inflation
The wars in, and destabilisation of Libya and Syria are arguably bigger enablers of mass immigration into Europe.
Sorry folks but the stats for the UK are pretty clear. The top 5 countries for non-EU long term migration to the UK are:
India Nigeria China Pakistan Zimbabwe
Immigration from these countries has exploded, but only since COVID-19 and far outstrips the fall of EU migration. You'd struggle to blame Xi Jinping or Libya/Syria or Ukraine for that. It's kinda astonishing that this performatively right-wing government has let it happen.
For those coming over in the boats, it's a much a smaller number of Afghans, Iranians, Turks.
I would expect Farage to focus heavily on the level of legal migration in the closing stages of the campaign.
Very difficult for the Tories to counter attacks on that score, given their strategy of weaponising xenophobia over the past few years. Talk about being hoist with your own petard!
4 out of 5 were countries deliberately targeted for student recruitment, but it is noticeable that overseas students vary greatly between nations in their intention to return home. Only 1% of Chinese students stay here long term, but very different figures from Nigeria or MENA countries. In large part down to limited graduate opportunities upon return. The same goes for medical and nursing recruitment.
Good morning all. After their heavy defeat there will be a LOT more articles like that Sp!ked one about the demise of the Conservative Party. They will be soul-searching what went wrong and what they were about.
It’s likely they will lurch to the Right, possibly in cahoots with Reform, and there they will remain in the wilderness.
Eventually, and it will take 2 or 3 defeats for them to come to their senses, they will fight the centre ground again. Why? Because that is always where elections are won or lost in Britain. Go hard Left (Corbyn, Foot) or hard Right (Major 97, Truss, Hague, Sunak) and you lose. The British people don’t like extremes which is why people like @Leon are now so homeless.
@biggles@Casino_Royale et al, backed by that soothsayer extraordinaire Leon, are telling themselves that because one sea-change election is about to happen it means another can too very shortly. This fundamentally misreads the mood of the nation and what seachange means. It’s about a re-alignment and it happened in 1979 and again in 1997. It’s about to happen in 2024.
There will not be another Conservative Government, or indeed anything Farage-related, for at least a decade and probably 15 years.
Leon, of course, is currently out down a MAGA-inspired conspiracy-infested apocalyptic and anarchistic rabbit hole so I would advise the others I’ve named, to which I’ll add @Luckyguy1983 and @MarqueeMark , not to get into bed with him down there. You at least have brains and common sense, so use them well and use them wisely. This country will need your party back and it will need you back in the centre-right.
I won’t tell you that I know I’m right but I will point out that I was the first on this forum to predict the coming Labour landslide.
The Conservatives will eventually return to power. Why so? Because Labour usually over spend and lose fiscal responsibility and that, until the last 5 years, was the Conservative Party’s trump card. But it won’t be for a generation. You blew it. You lost the country’s trust, crucially on the economy. That’s what this sea-change is all about.
Hard to disagree with this. PB rightists would be wise to listen.
The person most responsible for the decline of the Conservative government is Xi Jinping.
- Destroyed the rule of law in Hong Kong, producing immigration to the UK - Had the bright idea of promoting the domestication of wildlife, leading to a huge pandemic, totally botched the response, crashed his own economy, wrecked global supply chains and produced inflation - Gave Putin the nod to invade Ukraine when any sensible leader would have told him not to be an idiot, causing more immigration to the UK and even more inflation
The wars in, and destabilisation of Libya and Syria are arguably bigger enablers of mass immigration into Europe.
Sorry folks but the stats for the UK are pretty clear. The top 5 countries for non-EU long term migration to the UK are:
India Nigeria China Pakistan Zimbabwe
Immigration from these countries has exploded, but only since COVID-19 and far outstrips the fall of EU migration. You'd struggle to blame Xi Jinping or Libya/Syria or Ukraine for that. It's kinda astonishing that this performatively right-wing government has let it happen.
For those coming over in the boats, it's a much a smaller number of Afghans, Iranians, Turks.
It is apparent that the best way to fill labour shortages without encouraging high long-term migration is to have the flexibility of free movement with neighbouring countries.
The person most responsible for the decline of the Conservative government is Xi Jinping.
- Destroyed the rule of law in Hong Kong, producing immigration to the UK - Had the bright idea of promoting the domestication of wildlife, leading to a huge pandemic, totally botched the response, crashed his own economy, wrecked global supply chains and produced inflation - Gave Putin the nod to invade Ukraine when any sensible leader would have told him not to be an idiot, causing more immigration to the UK and even more inflation
The wars in, and destabilisation of Libya and Syria are arguably bigger enablers of mass immigration into Europe.
Sorry folks but the stats for the UK are pretty clear. The top 5 countries for non-EU long term migration to the UK are:
India Nigeria China Pakistan Zimbabwe
Immigration from these countries has exploded, but only since COVID-19 and far outstrips the fall of EU migration. You'd struggle to blame Xi Jinping or Libya/Syria or Ukraine for that.
For those coming over in the boats, it's a much a smaller number of Afghans, Iranians, Turks.
In absolute terms, I think Moroccans and Algerians are among the largest immigrant communities in the EU, but accurate statistics seem quite hard to come by.
Not many in Britain though. Its a struggle to find French Tacos here. There is a new stall run by Algerians near the Leicester General Hospital to get that strange, unhealthy and delicious French-Algerian street food.
The person most responsible for the decline of the Conservative government is Xi Jinping.
- Destroyed the rule of law in Hong Kong, producing immigration to the UK - Had the bright idea of promoting the domestication of wildlife, leading to a huge pandemic, totally botched the response, crashed his own economy, wrecked global supply chains and produced inflation - Gave Putin the nod to invade Ukraine when any sensible leader would have told him not to be an idiot, causing more immigration to the UK and even more inflation
The wars in, and destabilisation of Libya and Syria are arguably bigger enablers of mass immigration into Europe.
Sorry folks but the stats for the UK are pretty clear. The top 5 countries for non-EU long term migration to the UK are:
India Nigeria China Pakistan Zimbabwe
Immigration from these countries has exploded, but only since COVID-19 and far outstrips the fall of EU migration. You'd struggle to blame Xi Jinping or Libya/Syria or Ukraine for that. It's kinda astonishing that this performatively right-wing government has let it happen.
For those coming over in the boats, it's a much a smaller number of Afghans, Iranians, Turks.
It is apparent that the best way to fill labour shortages without encouraging high long-term migration is to have the flexibility of free movement with neighbouring countries.
Yes, our Spanish and Portuguese nurses and Greek and Italian doctors would typically come and work for a few years, gaining experience and skills before returning home. Since Brexit we get very few, but we do get a lot of Egyptians and Nigerians who bring families and stay long term. They are great colleagues too, but limited prospects on return.
France’s four main leftwing parties have agreed to form a “New Popular Front” (NPF) to contest the snap election, as the far-right leader Marine Le Pen said she would seek a “national unity government” if her National Rally (RN) wins.
The Socialist party (PS), Greens, Communists and France Unbowed (LFI), led by the hard-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, will campaign on a common platform and field a single joint candidate in each of the 577 parliamentary constituencies.
“A new page in the history of France has been written,” they said in a joint statement. Mélenchon tweeted his “warmest congratulations and thanks to our negotiators who had four sleepless nights” deciding on the programme and 577 candidates.
In theory, the four groups combined slightly outpolled the RN in the European Parliament elections, it might increase the number of triangular duels in the second round as a combined candidate could cross the 12.5% of the electorate threshold where individual PS, EELV, LFI and PCF candidates wouldn't.
It's almost like somebody wrote an article about how Green's imagined future leads it to ally with progressive politics
...and...
It's almost like somebody wrote an article WITH AN ACTUAL EXAMPLE on how the concept of the party list enables alliances to be rapidly built at need
Where can such articles be found: only PB, that's where!
The person most responsible for the decline of the Conservative government is Xi Jinping.
- Destroyed the rule of law in Hong Kong, producing immigration to the UK - Had the bright idea of promoting the domestication of wildlife, leading to a huge pandemic, totally botched the response, crashed his own economy, wrecked global supply chains and produced inflation - Gave Putin the nod to invade Ukraine when any sensible leader would have told him not to be an idiot, causing more immigration to the UK and even more inflation
The wars in, and destabilisation of Libya and Syria are arguably bigger enablers of mass immigration into Europe.
Sorry folks but the stats for the UK are pretty clear. The top 5 countries for non-EU long term migration to the UK are:
India Nigeria China Pakistan Zimbabwe
Immigration from these countries has exploded, but only since COVID-19 and far outstrips the fall of EU migration. You'd struggle to blame Xi Jinping or Libya/Syria or Ukraine for that.
For those coming over in the boats, it's a much a smaller number of Afghans, Iranians, Turks.
In absolute terms, I think Moroccans and Algerians are among the largest immigrant communities in the EU, but accurate statistics seem quite hard to come by.
Not many in Britain though. Its a struggle to find French Tacos here. There is a new stall run by Algerians near the Leicester General Hospital to get that strange, unhealthy and delicious French-Algerian street food.
Indeed - and Brexit has massively changed patterns of migration into the UK, while doing very little to influence the numbers.
OT. It appears the RAF are expecting a big expansin in recruitment over the next few years. RAF Cranwell, the training college a few miles north of where I live, is almost trebling its capacity through new building and refurbishment.
A lot of Ukrainian air force pilots to be trained.
That will be part of it but the additional numbers - an extra 900 at each intake- cannot just be from that.
Wonder how Sir Alan Bates feels about his knighthood. He's essentially a humble man who always considers the interests of his fellow SPMs first. He's not one of life's headline-grabbers. I suppose he feels that accepting will help the cause?
Any polls due over the weekend, or are we all focused on the football now? I suppose if you are Scottish some polls would be a welcome distraction. Shame they don't have a trophy for the best fans - Scots would win hands down.
Yep besr in mind Bates did have the right to turn down any honour in which case no one would know unless he revealed it. So he must have felt there was some good to be derived from it.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. I know the press have to sell tomorrow’s chip wrap, but it’s all a bit silly. We know mid campaign polls can be bollocks, so why do folk get obsessed by them.
Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will win have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
Never underestimate the Tories, their vote will turn out and even if they do badly their seat count will be nearer 200 than 100.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
Except that in his policy making like the quadruple lock and the dumping of mandatory housing targets etc, Sunak has consistently been making our problems worse not better.
Sunak is the worst of the PMs we've had.
I don't think this is right. Truss obviously worse, and on the face of it Sunak seems to have some sort of set of ideas in mind.
However he was (in my view) very poor as chancellor, and his 'across the numbers' ghastliness seems to differ from the truth - I really doubt he is. Sunak seems very poor all round.
Bear in mind the Yougov question which started this discussion was not who was the worst of the last 5 PMs. The question was:
"If the Conservative party loses the election in July, which of their prime ministers since 2010 do you think will be most responsible?"
For me that is clearly Sunak.
For me it’s Johnson. A divisive figure who was driven solely by his own ambition. Hollowed out his party, brought in alot of low grade MPs and crony Lords, drove a prospectus that was unrealistic, repeatedly lied to the people and took them for fools, behaved as if he wasn’t bound by his own or any other rules and so on. He set expectations that couldn’t be met, as per the huckster he is.
Cameron, hiding in his shed instead of dealing with the Brexit he had engineered.
- I think it’s rather sad that the only way you can deal with the present is to imagine / hope for a future that is so uncertain
- History doesn’t support your view that a (let’s say) 150 seat majority can be overturned in one term. So, realistically, if (IF) Labour take a 150+ seat maj then will be in power for 9-10 years minimum
- They, and the country, start from such a low base (as does your party) that I think you are detaching yourself from the reality of what is taking place as a psychological device. It’s a flight reaction.
History also says that an 80-seat majority can't be overturned in one go. If people are fed up then party loyalty is going to drop.
Only one government in a century has been a single term, including through much bigger crises too.
British voters may be unenthusiastic but pretty much always are willing to give a government a second chance.
I am not sure that is true.
Since 1924 we have had
Baldwin Tory 1 term 1924 - 1929 Heath Tory 1 term 1970 - 1974
and although stretching it a little because of the two elections in 1974,
Wilson/Callaghan Labour 1 term 1974 -1979
Also Macdonald had two single term governments in 1924 and 1929-31. It's masked by the fact he then became titular head of a multiparty coalition from 1931-35.
Good morning all. After their heavy defeat there will be a LOT more articles like that Sp!ked one about the demise of the Conservative Party. They will be soul-searching what went wrong and what they were about.
It’s likely they will lurch to the Right, possibly in cahoots with Reform, and there they will remain in the wilderness.
Eventually, and it will take 2 or 3 defeats for them to come to their senses, they will fight the centre ground again. Why? Because that is always where elections are won or lost in Britain. Go hard Left (Corbyn, Foot) or hard Right (Major 97, Truss, Hague, Sunak) and you lose. The British people don’t like extremes which is why people like @Leon are now so homeless.
@biggles@Casino_Royale et al, backed by that soothsayer extraordinaire Leon, are telling themselves that because one sea-change election is about to happen it means another can too very shortly. This fundamentally misreads the mood of the nation and what seachange means. It’s about a re-alignment and it happened in 1979 and again in 1997. It’s about to happen in 2024.
There will not be another Conservative Government, or indeed anything Farage-related, for at least a decade and probably 15 years.
Leon, of course, is currently out down a MAGA-inspired conspiracy-infested apocalyptic and anarchistic rabbit hole so I would advise the others I’ve named, to which I’ll add @Luckyguy1983 and @MarqueeMark , not to get into bed with him down there. You at least have brains and common sense, so use them well and use them wisely. This country will need your party back and it will need you back in the centre-right.
I won’t tell you that I know I’m right but I will point out that I was the first on this forum to predict the coming Labour landslide.
The Conservatives will eventually return to power. Why so? Because Labour usually over spend and lose fiscal responsibility and that, until the last 5 years, was the Conservative Party’s trump card. But it won’t be for a generation. You blew it. You lost the country’s trust, crucially on the economy. That’s what this sea-change is all about.
Thatcher won 3 general elections from the right not the centre. Attlee won two general elections from the left not the centre. Wilson was also less centrist than Heath in 1966 and 1974
Good morning all. After their heavy defeat there will be a LOT more articles like that Sp!ked one about the demise of the Conservative Party. They will be soul-searching what went wrong and what they were about.
It’s likely they will lurch to the Right, possibly in cahoots with Reform, and there they will remain in the wilderness.
Eventually, and it will take 2 or 3 defeats for them to come to their senses, they will fight the centre ground again. Why? Because that is always where elections are won or lost in Britain. Go hard Left (Corbyn, Foot) or hard Right (Major 97, Truss, Hague, Sunak) and you lose. The British people don’t like extremes which is why people like @Leon are now so homeless.
@biggles@Casino_Royale et al, backed by that soothsayer extraordinaire Leon, are telling themselves that because one sea-change election is about to happen it means another can too very shortly. This fundamentally misreads the mood of the nation and what seachange means. It’s about a re-alignment and it happened in 1979 and again in 1997. It’s about to happen in 2024.
There will not be another Conservative Government, or indeed anything Farage-related, for at least a decade and probably 15 years.
Leon, of course, is currently out down a MAGA-inspired conspiracy-infested apocalyptic and anarchistic rabbit hole so I would advise the others I’ve named, to which I’ll add @Luckyguy1983 and @MarqueeMark , not to get into bed with him down there. You at least have brains and common sense, so use them well and use them wisely. This country will need your party back and it will need you back in the centre-right.
I won’t tell you that I know I’m right but I will point out that I was the first on this forum to predict the coming Labour landslide.
The Conservatives will eventually return to power. Why so? Because Labour usually over spend and lose fiscal responsibility and that, until the last 5 years, was the Conservative Party’s trump card. But it won’t be for a generation. You blew it. You lost the country’s trust, crucially on the economy. That’s what this sea-change is all about.
Thatcher won 3 general elections from the right not the centre. Attlee won two general elections from the left not the centre. Wilson was also less centrist than Heath in 1966 and 1974
Thanks @Heathener for the compliment about me having brains.
Comments
"Countdown Amazing Calculation 813"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JQYYz92-Uk
I'm not sure how I'd get the data easily, but I wonder how many experienced former Govt Ministers Labour will have in Parliament after the Election?
How the most successful political party in history became a rootless, pointless husk.
Tom Slater"
https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/06/14/the-death-of-the-tory-party-is-long-overdue/
https://archive.is/Ny6TR
At 6 mins 30 secs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4YY7KWJAtA
https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/10/02/the-slow-decay-of-the-conservative-party/
Birthday Honours List 2024
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/birthday-honours-list-2024
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6pp5emm95do
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/dfIuO-6Shag (50-second video)
some very flakey candidates. Sunak has no vision beyond his spreadsheets, and is a terrible political campaigner. All of them believed in funnelling money to existing supporters, without caring where new supporters would come from.
So, we are where we are.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/14/french-leftwing-parties-popular-front-contest-snap-election
The Socialist party (PS), Greens, Communists and France Unbowed (LFI), led by the hard-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, will campaign on a common platform and field a single joint candidate in each of the 577 parliamentary constituencies.
“A new page in the history of France has been written,” they said in a joint statement. Mélenchon tweeted his “warmest congratulations and thanks to our negotiators who had four sleepless nights” deciding on the programme and 577 candidates.
The Lord Tebbit
The Lord Baker of Dorking
The Lord King of Bridgwater
The Lord Owen
The Lord Hurd of Westwell
The Lord Heseltine
The Lord Patten of Barnes
Sir John Major
The Lord Howard of Lympne
The Lord Young of Cookham
The Lord Coe
The Lord Strathclyde
The Lord Campbell of Pittenweem
The Lord Clarke of Nottingham
The Baroness Amos
George Osborne
The Lord McLoughlin
Sir Bill Cash
Gordon Brown
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_the_Companions_of_Honour
Far be it from me to suggest a bias towards one particular colour of rosette.
It’s likely they will lurch to the Right, possibly in cahoots with Reform, and there they will remain in the wilderness.
Eventually, and it will take 2 or 3 defeats for them to come to their senses, they will fight the centre ground again. Why? Because that is always where elections are won or lost in Britain. Go hard Left (Corbyn, Foot) or hard Right (Major 97, Truss, Hague, Sunak) and you lose. The British people don’t like extremes which is why people like @Leon are now so homeless.
@biggles @Casino_Royale et al, backed by that soothsayer extraordinaire Leon, are telling themselves that because one sea-change election is about to happen it means another can too very shortly. This fundamentally misreads the mood of the nation and what seachange means. It’s about a re-alignment and it happened in 1979 and again in 1997. It’s about to happen in 2024.
There will not be another Conservative Government, or indeed anything Farage-related, for at least a decade and probably 15 years.
Leon, of course, is currently out down a MAGA-inspired conspiracy-infested apocalyptic and anarchistic rabbit hole so I would advise the others I’ve named, to which I’ll add @Luckyguy1983 and @MarqueeMark , not to get into bed with him down there. You at least have brains and common sense, so use them well and use them wisely. This country will need your party back and it will need you back in the centre-right.
I won’t tell you that I know I’m right but I will point out that I was the first on this forum to predict the coming Labour landslide.
The Conservatives will eventually return to power. Why so? Because Labour usually over spend and lose fiscal responsibility and that, until the last 5 years, was the Conservative Party’s trump card. But it won’t be for a generation. You blew it. You lost the country’s trust, crucially on the economy. That’s what this sea-change is all about.
- Destroyed the rule of law in Hong Kong, producing immigration to the UK
- Had the bright idea of promoting the domestication of wildlife, leading to a huge pandemic, totally botched the response, crashed his own economy, wrecked global supply chains and produced inflation
- Gave Putin the nod to invade Ukraine when any sensible leader would have told him not to be an idiot, causing more immigration to the UK and even more inflation
The presence of Bill Cash is the cherry on the cake.
Wonder how Sir Alan Bates feels about his knighthood. He's essentially a humble man who always considers the interests of his fellow SPMs first. He's not one of life's headline-grabbers. I suppose he feels that accepting will help the cause?
Any polls due over the weekend, or are we all focused on the football now? I suppose if you are Scottish some polls would be a welcome distraction. Shame they don't have a trophy for the best fans - Scots would win hands down.
I've always essentially thought them to be a supplicant.
India
Nigeria
China
Pakistan
Zimbabwe
Immigration from these countries has exploded, but only since COVID-19 and far outstrips the fall of EU migration. You'd struggle to blame Xi Jinping or Libya/Syria or Ukraine for that. It's kinda astonishing that this performatively right-wing government has let it happen.
For those coming over in the boats, it's a much a smaller number of Afghans, Iranians, Turks.
Channel 4 News has had some great reporting this week from lesser reported wars in Myanmar and Sudan. 10 million internal refugees in Sudan now.
Don't jinx it please.
If RN or the Left win the election, they’ll set the domestic agenda till 2027, when the next Presidential election takes place. The new President can then call a fresh legislative election.
Anyone who wins 50% on round 1 is elected. If not, there’s a run off, in which any candidate who wins 12.5% of the electorate (not just those who voted), can take part. The centre are on 18%, and if they retain that, they’ll fall short of qualifying for round 2, in many seats.
Very difficult for the Tories to counter attacks on that score, given their strategy of weaponising xenophobia over the past few years. Talk about being hoist with your own petard!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2015_European_migrant_crisis
In absolute terms, I think Moroccans and Algerians are among the largest immigrant communities in the EU, but accurate statistics seem quite hard to come by.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-kings-birthday-honours-list-2024
Sir Alan Bates my favourite so far.
...and...
It's almost like somebody wrote an article WITH AN ACTUAL EXAMPLE on how the concept of the party list enables alliances to be rapidly built at need
Where can such articles be found: only PB, that's where!
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/05/12/solarpunk/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/06/05/parties/
NEW THREAD
Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat.
There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west.
Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will win have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
Never underestimate the Tories, their vote will turn out and even if they do badly their seat count will be nearer 200 than 100.
It has however become increasingly unusual.