That news from the Labour ground operation, suggesting that Reform are ahead of the Tories in the Red Wall but not in the Blue Wall, suggests to me that my thinking from earlier might have some use.
If they want the survive as an independent force in the future, one of the only ways for them might be by ceding the very populist ground, and certain areas of the country , to Reform, and then allying with them intermittently.
Surprisingly, mine said was equally Reform and Labour. It more illustrates my anger at the party system than an actual prediction of my voting behaviour.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
Wasn't that Argentina 1978 when Willie Johnston was sent home in disgrace?
I, for one, have been blasting out Del Amitri’s “Don’t Come Home Too Soon” all evening.
Glasgow rock bands are sadly as good at failing as Scottish football teams. Aztec camera, del Amitri, Fratellis. In the latter 2 cases football anthems seem to be the kiss of death.
Every so often I feel a strange urge to listen to Del Amitri, Waking hours in full. Only ever in autumn or winter. I’ve no idea why, I like it but not like other groups I listen to full albums by. Maybe it’s a good album or maybe it’s just associated with a time and place. Aztec Camera is just one song that gets played a lot at parties and is a classic, the Frattelis Chelsea Dagger is one of the most overplayed ordinary songs .
1. I hate Chelsea Dagger. Whistle for the Choir, Look out Sunshine, Lupe Brown, are the point.
2. Waking Hours is pretty much flawless, let down only by Nothing Ever Happens, which itself is only let down by its over popularity. Stone Cold Sober Is a top 20 of all time song.
3. Aztec Camera - I had to spend a night in Glasgow a bit ago in a grotty holiday inn by a coach station which made me sad till I realised that I was on KILLERMONT STREET. They bat a bit deeper than SIMH.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
A mess that he was in part responsible for as he had previously been Chancellor in those very same Boris years you are talking about.
Labour is now explicitly ruling out putting Capital Gains Tax on people’s main homes.
Labour spokesman: “No. Labour will not introduce capital gains taxes on primary residences. It’s a bad idea.”
===
Of course they are. It is electoral suicide.
Good evening
Rayners lose talk must have spread panic in Labour ranks
Nobody who wants to be in power threatens home owners with capital gains tax on their own home
Yeah I mentioned this thus morning and, per Woolies recommendation Labour quickly shut it down. Of course having to do so does leave the door open to those ????s about whither thy funding
Could the answer be (a) it's clearly a crazy idea so (b) it wasn't ever talked about in policy meetings therefore (c) there wasn't a decision not to do it because it wasn't considered and (d) Rayner didn't feel like she had the right to bounce Reeves into a policy statement that wasn't in the lines to take.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
If the Conservatives lose the election, which of their PMs since 2010 will be most to blame?
Boris Johnson: 25% Rishi Sunak: 23% Liz Truss: 17%
Among 2019 Tory voters specifically Rishi Sunak: 27% Liz Truss: 23% Boris Johnson: 19%
The Trump campaign's response to the Supreme Court's bump stocks decision ignores that Trump admin imposed the ban.
Karoline Leavitt: "President Trump has been and always will be a fierce defender of Americans' second amendment rights and he is proud to be endorsed by the NRA" https://x.com/migold/status/1801628685939716207
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Anyone with an American accent should be banned from football commentary.
Why?
Ian's still bitter over 1950.
Or 1776.
Nah, 1776 was the year we decided we'd rather have India than America.
It was the correct choice.
It wasn’t a choice, though, was it. And India was kind of a private sector thing.
It was a choice. At the time we could have diverted huge military resources to the war but we considered that we couldn’t do war in a serious way against people we thought were “us” and brutalise “our own” but also that there were other possessions, especially in the Caribbean that were more important economically and so the risk of reducing their defences to shift troops and ships to win in the colonies wasn’t a good choice.
Anyone with an American accent should be banned from football commentary.
Why?
Ian's still bitter over 1950.
Or 1776.
Nah, 1776 was the year we decided we'd rather have India than America.
It was the correct choice.
It wasn’t a choice, though, was it. And India was kind of a private sector thing.
It was a choice. At the time we could have diverted huge military resources to the war but we considered that we couldn’t do war in a serious way against people we thought were “us” and brutalise “our own” but also that there were other possessions, especially in the Caribbean that were more important economically and so the risk of reducing their defences to shift troops and ships to win in the colonies wasn’t a good choice.
Scotland out and England doing infuriatingly well (and banging on about it) would be the perfect combination for SNP to outperform in July.
Scotland out, England on fire and the good folk of Banff wake to Dougies cheesy grinning fizzog on July 5. There will be riots on the streets of Fraserburgh
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
I think he has it in him to be quite a long-serving PM. He'll perhaps be the most pragmatic PM we've ever had. He's managed to make himself PM (it seems) by working with the rabble that are his party. It's impressive. The problem is his party.
'Rabble' of course being a kinder term than can currently be applied to any other party.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
Wasn't that Argentina 1978 when Willie Johnston was sent home in disgrace?
I, for one, have been blasting out Del Amitri’s “Don’t Come Home Too Soon” all evening.
Glasgow rock bands are sadly as good at failing as Scottish football teams. Aztec camera, del Amitri, Fratellis. In the latter 2 cases football anthems seem to be the kiss of death.
Every so often I feel a strange urge to listen to Del Amitri, Waking hours in full. Only ever in autumn or winter. I’ve no idea why, I like it but not like other groups I listen to full albums by. Maybe it’s a good album or maybe it’s just associated with a time and place. Aztec Camera is just one song that gets played a lot at parties and is a classic, the Frattelis Chelsea Dagger is one of the most overplayed ordinary songs .
Dusk songs: On the fast section of the A629 northbound as it passes Penistone into the treelined section towards Ingbirchworth roundabout on an October evening.
Not for any particularly personal reason, you understand, but Be My Downfall, which was that distance into the greatest hits, is forever set in that copse and that bus stop in my mind.
Left foot studs up while he went for the ball with the right foot. Stupid challenge for 2024. The referee wouldn't even have stopped the game in Argentina '78.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
Again ignoring the fact that Sunak was a key member of the Johnson administration for almost all of its time in office, first briefly as Chief Secretary to the Treasury and then as Chancellor. Starmer was not, as far as I know, a member of the Johnson Government.
Left foot studs up while he went for the ball with the right foot. Stupid challenge for 2024. The referee wouldn't even have stopped the game in Argentina '78.
Even Dickhead Keane agrees. Red red red. No doubt.
Left foot studs up while he went for the ball with the right foot. Stupid challenge for 2024. The referee wouldn't even have stopped the game in Argentina '78.
Double Jeopardy though with a red card and penalty. A yellow would be fair.
Come on Scotland. For Malc, Farooq, TheUnionDivie, Carnyx, Burgessian, Rochdale (lol) and any Scots posters I’ve missed. And most of all for Gordon Brown, may a little happiness finally enter your life. Just remembered DavidL, sorry, I keep thinking you are English.
Insofar as I have a mental image of DavidL, it's pre-force-lightning Palpatine, around the time of The Phantom Menace. This is made more compelling by the fact that in that film Ian McDiarmid just muted his natural Scottish accent a bit, and didn't go full-on heh-heh-heh until two films later.
Also followed by a line of ducklings, of course... 👍
Anyone with an American accent should be banned from football commentary.
Why?
Ian's still bitter over 1950.
Or 1776.
Nah, 1776 was the year we decided we'd rather have India than America.
Plassey was 1757...
Private battle.
Most people don't seem to realise that India didn't officially become part of the British Empire until a centiury after Plassey.
Big distinction without a difference energy here, we are talking about the same elites wearing very slightly different hats. Frinstance Sir Ed Pellew/Lord Exmouth came back from being Admiral in charge of the Indian Ocean with 30 million in today earth pounds in presents from HEIC.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
Just seen the score. How many are Germany going to get?
Prediction - not that many more. Tournament football so get the win and then avoid using up too much energy, getting injured. Many a game like this ends at full time with the halftime score.
Left foot studs up while he went for the ball with the right foot. Stupid challenge for 2024. The referee wouldn't even have stopped the game in Argentina '78.
Double Jeopardy though with a red card and penalty. A yellow would be fair.
No, it wouldn't. Dangerous play is dangerous play. You end careers doing that.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
Did Johnson really have an ideology beyond a vague boosterism and a penchant for spaffing public funds on plans for unrealistic infrastructure?
The limit for Reform is Nigel Farage. He can go a long way but probably has an ultimate limit of 30% ish of people who will consider voting for him. I don't think the 'challenger right wing party' will ultimately be led by him.
If 30% support Reform and 15% Tory, you have a Reform/Tory government with Farage as PM.
Wasn't that Argentina 1978 when Willie Johnston was sent home in disgrace?
I, for one, have been blasting out Del Amitri’s “Don’t Come Home Too Soon” all evening.
Glasgow rock bands are sadly as good at failing as Scottish football teams. Aztec camera, del Amitri, Fratellis. In the latter 2 cases football anthems seem to be the kiss of death.
Every so often I feel a strange urge to listen to Del Amitri, Waking hours in full. Only ever in autumn or winter. I’ve no idea why, I like it but not like other groups I listen to full albums by. Maybe it’s a good album or maybe it’s just associated with a time and place. Aztec Camera is just one song that gets played a lot at parties and is a classic, the Frattelis Chelsea Dagger is one of the most overplayed ordinary songs .
1. I hate Chelsea Dagger. Whistle for the Choir, Look out Sunshine, Lupe Brown, are the point.
2. Waking Hours is pretty much flawless, let down only by Nothing Ever Happens, which itself is only let down by its over popularity. Stone Cold Sober Is a top 20 of all time song.
3. Aztec Camera - I had to spend a night in Glasgow a bit ago in a grotty holiday inn by a coach station which made me sad till I realised that I was on KILLERMONT STREET. They bat a bit deeper than SIMH.
I do have to listen to certain albums in full such as Waking Hours but I find they are largely from teenage years - I guess it’s because at that time there wasn’t the internet and Spotify and we didn’t have tv at school really so you would play albums and find that different albums were for certain moods or created certain moods.
I love my autumn/winter albums such as Waking Hours, Disintegration. fisherman’s Blues, Ten, The best of the Beatles, the summer albums such as Soul II Soul club Classics, Good Morning Vietnam soundtrack. Not all serious but it’s really easy to just flip from song to song now and not enjoy albums.
Just seen the score. How many are Germany going to get?
Prediction - not that many more. Tournament football so get the win and then avoid using up too much energy, getting injured. Many a game like this ends at full time with the halftime score.
Though with Scotland at 10 men, and the Germans wanting to set out their stall 5 or 6 nil wouldn't surprise me.
Anyone with an American accent should be banned from football commentary.
Why?
Ian's still bitter over 1950.
Or 1776.
Nah, 1776 was the year we decided we'd rather have India than America.
Plassey was 1757...
Private battle.
Most people don't seem to realise that India didn't officially become part of the British Empire until a centiury after Plassey.
Big distinction without a difference energy here, we are talking about the same elites wearing very slightly different hats. Frinstance Sir Ed Pellew/Lord Exmouth came back from being Admiral in charge of the Indian Ocean with 30 million in today earth pounds in presents from HEIC.
I was reading about the East Indies/Indian campaigns of the Revolutionary and Napoleonic wars only today. Apaprently the RN officers had 20 per cent knocked off their pay in charges for conversion locally, but that was more than made up for by "donations" from Hon Company - even the ordinary sailors benefited by the sending of free food.
Left foot studs up while he went for the ball with the right foot. Stupid challenge for 2024. The referee wouldn't even have stopped the game in Argentina '78.
Double Jeopardy though with a red card and penalty. A yellow would be fair.
I agree, but letter of the law is studs on ankle red card. Shin pads and no cards back in our day!
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
I find these hyper-defensive posts absolutely fascinating. Reams of them as soon as I dare suggest SKS is an empty vessel built on sand that is going to rapidly fall apart.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
@Richard_Tyndall got there before me but this is the thing. There is huge continuity between the administrations of Johnson, Truss and Sunak. They are not different administrations. It’s a convenient fiction that attempts to wipe the slate clean.
There was an actual break in administration and ideology between Cameron and Johnson, with May the transitional PM, such that you could argue they really were different parties. And Johnson won an election with the mandate that brings. But since then it’s just been court intrigue within a single party of government that needs to be judged on the totality of its term of office, not just the time since November 2022.
The Trump campaign's response to the Supreme Court's bump stocks decision ignores that Trump admin imposed the ban.
Karoline Leavitt: "President Trump has been and always will be a fierce defender of Americans' second amendment rights and he is proud to be endorsed by the NRA" https://x.com/migold/status/1801628685939716207
I thought the NRA were on the skids?
Legal decision iirc?
(Checking wiki, a lorra-lorra legal decisions, to the extent that I am not going to dig further.)
Just seen the score. How many are Germany going to get?
Prediction - not that many more. Tournament football so get the win and then avoid using up too much energy, getting injured. Many a game like this ends at full time with the halftime score.
Thanks, I was going to put a bet on 6-0, but it might not be a good idea. (Not really a football fan).
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
What can you expect from Tories apart from making things up?
Anyone with an American accent should be banned from football commentary.
Why?
Ian's still bitter over 1950.
Or 1776.
Nah, 1776 was the year we decided we'd rather have India than America.
Plassey was 1757...
Private battle.
Most people don't seem to realise that India didn't officially become part of the British Empire until a centiury after Plassey.
Big distinction without a difference energy here, we are talking about the same elites wearing very slightly different hats. Frinstance Sir Ed Pellew/Lord Exmouth came back from being Admiral in charge of the Indian Ocean with 30 million in today earth pounds in presents from HEIC.
The point being that at the time of Plassey and, slightly later, the American Revolution, Great Britain did not have vast armies in India that could have been used to supress the North American rebellion. Those Indian armies were mostly native forces, raised by the East India Company and officered by Britons who would later transfer into regular posts in the British Army. They were funded by wealthy Indian Merchant Banker families.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
@Richard_Tyndall got there before me but this is the thing. There is huge continuity between the administrations of Johnson, Truss and Sunak. They are not different administrations. It’s a convenient fiction that attempts to wipe the slate clean.
There was an actual break in administration and ideology between Cameron and Johnson, with May the transitional PM, such that you could argue they really were different parties. And Johnson won an election with the mandate that brings. But since then it’s just been court intrigue within a single party of government that needs to be judged on the totality of its term of office, not just the time since November 2022.
You're omitting the LDs up to 2015, of course. But remembering that only strengthens your point.
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
What can you expect from Tories apart from making things up?
The way things are going they'll be making things down soon.
Just got Yougoved for specifics of how I would vote in my constituency with the named candidates. I presume this is for a future MRP poll?
Mentioned that to Mrs Eek so she went to Yougov. Didn’t get that question just who out of the last 5 PMs is responsible for the current Tory situation.
A harder decision than you would expect as all hold some responsibility albeit May only because of her desire to fix social care
Yep I got that question. I put Sunak. Personally I believe that no matter how dire a situation you inherit there is always some scope to improve - perhaps even more so if the situation is really dire. The fact that Sunak has done nothing to improve things for the country as a wholeand has actually mangaed to make them worse says everything I need to know about him.
He did do things to improve things for the country, just not sexy big things. He regained the trust of the markets - whether you like it or not it’s vital - he stabilised a potentially out of control economic situation, he improved relations with Europe - Windsor framework, personal relations with European leaders (he does by all accounts have a very good personal relationship with Macron and Meloni, and is appreciated by others) especially after the Boris years.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
And isn’t that the thing? Sunak asks us to judge his government as if it took over from opposition in late 2022. As if all the previous Conservative administrations were somehow a different party.
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
Ok, the Tories were in power for 14 years, so Sunak is the repository for the hate and dissatisfaction for that but, if you are being rational and not party political, his government is as much recovering the country from the previous managers as Starmer will be. Sunak hasn’t had a great opportunity to wipe the slate clean in a way that Starmer will be able to, disassociate himself from the previous years and start afresh but actually he was starting afresh with some crappy legacies he couldn’t ditch.
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
Except that in his policy making like the quadruple lock and the dumping of mandatory housing targets etc, Sunak has consistently been making our problems worse not better.
The limit for Reform is Nigel Farage. He can go a long way but probably has an ultimate limit of 30% ish of people who will consider voting for him. I don't think the 'challenger right wing party' will ultimately be led by him.
If 30% support Reform and 15% Tory, you have a Reform/Tory government with Farage as PM.
Even if I liked Farage and Reform's policies I'd never vote for him because he wouldn't be able to enact them.
You need to be a good team manager and skilled at organisation to get things done in politics, and build political alliances and coalitions domestically and internationally.
Farage can't do this - instead we'd get a lot of bloviated grandstanding in Parliament whilst nothing changed and he'd quit in a strop after 4 months - so what's the point?
Prediction: Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister.
This is not going to be a one term majority. The electorate has become more volatile, but they are not going back to the Tories anytime soon..
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
He's dropped 7 points in 7 days.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
I'd be interested to see your workings there.
Going from the wikipedia table: Techne -1 (44 to 43) YouGov -4 (41 to 37) R+W flat (42 to 42) WeThink -2 (45 to 43) Whitestone -1 (42 to 41) BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
I find these hyper-defensive posts absolutely fascinating. Reams of them as soon as I dare suggest SKS is an empty vessel built on sand that is going to rapidly fall apart.
Comments
You might be right though and Crazy Ed Davey will beat Starmer in 2028 with a Rejoin manifesto.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/06/14/everton-exclusivity-terms-takeover-roma-owner-dan-friedkin/
Damn.
Although I guess you might mean Streeting takes over for terms two and three?
If they want the survive as an independent force in the future, one of the only ways for them might be by ceding the very populist ground, and certain areas of the country , to Reform, and then allying with them intermittently.
We were absolutely in a mess when he took over and he did things that the man on the street will never appreciate but in the long term they improved the country from what he took over. He was never in a position to start driving any vision because he was cleaning up an absolute mess.
2. Waking Hours is pretty much flawless, let down only by Nothing Ever Happens, which itself is only let down by its over popularity. Stone Cold Sober Is a top 20 of all time song.
3. Aztec Camera - I had to spend a night in Glasgow a bit ago in a grotty holiday inn by a coach station which made me sad till I realised that I was on KILLERMONT STREET. They bat a bit deeper than SIMH.
His coalition is fraying before he's even in office.
Think about it.
And India was kind of a private sector thing.
You can apologise profusely when I prove to be right, which I will graciously accept.
Boris Johnson: 25%
Rishi Sunak: 23%
Liz Truss: 17%
Among 2019 Tory voters specifically
Rishi Sunak: 27%
Liz Truss: 23%
Boris Johnson: 19%
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1801643315336528318?t=yRb1UyipJzAJET3NRH04Yw&s=19
You find out now
I got caught not having a clear OUT in 2017 having called Theresa May the wrong way on the spreads.
A touch expensive, and swallowed a number of previous months of profit.
The Trump campaign's response to the Supreme Court's bump stocks decision ignores that Trump admin imposed the ban.
Karoline Leavitt: "President Trump has been and always will be a fierce defender of Americans' second amendment rights and he is proud to be endorsed by the NRA"
https://x.com/migold/status/1801628685939716207
So did Truss, for her brief Autumn tenure. So did Johnson. So did May.
5 PMs in a little over 6 years. Yet he wants to warn voters about the great unknown that is a Labour government led by a man who has been in position since 2019 and seen 3 prime ministers.
That’s Scotland’s history in a nutsack, really
So we did have a choice.
We tried; we failed.
There will be riots on the streets of Fraserburgh
Most people don't seem to realise that India didn't officially become part of the British Empire until a centiury after Plassey.
'Rabble' of course being a kinder term than can currently be applied to any other party.
All they do is lose, whine and then export midges
Yes I’m partisan but I think it’s clear that Sunak isn’t Johnson and their ideologies and governments are v different except one has the baggage of the other that Starmer is free from.
Not for any particularly personal reason, you understand, but Be My Downfall, which was that distance into the greatest hits, is forever set in that copse and that bus stop in my mind.
Sam Matterface is very annoying.
There is not “an inquest going on already for Scotland”.
It’s called a Fatal Accident Inquiry.
Left foot studs up while he went for the ball with the right foot. Stupid challenge for 2024. The referee wouldn't even have stopped the game in Argentina '78.
Techne, Redfield and Wilton, We Think and Whitestone all have Labour in the low forties, perhaps 1 or 2 points down on a week ago.
That Ming vase is nearly over the line.
I expect it will be difficult to fight a second election without a clear successor lined up.
The next election could be something like..
Con 28%
Lab 30%
Green 10%
Reform 10%
LDs 14%
SNP 5%
Plaid 1%
Others 2%
Also followed by a line of ducklings, of course... 👍
But you know I'm right.
I just went and collected my first Brompton. Happy days.
(Coming soon - latest Ashfield placard report.)
Going from the wikipedia table:
Techne -1 (44 to 43)
YouGov -4 (41 to 37)
R+W flat (42 to 42)
WeThink -2 (45 to 43)
Whitestone -1 (42 to 41)
BMG -1 (42 to 41)...
Labour are consistently down, sure. But not by seven. And as long as voters to the right of the Liberal Democrats remain split, it barely matters.
1. Football score
2. Rugby score
3. Cricket score
I love my autumn/winter albums such as Waking Hours, Disintegration. fisherman’s Blues, Ten, The best of the Beatles, the summer albums such as Soul II Soul club Classics, Good Morning Vietnam soundtrack. Not all serious but it’s really easy to just flip from song to song now and not enjoy albums.
You know the polling. And that three polls have put them in the 30s in the last week: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
Absolutely no-one wants to hear that this side of the election precisely because they are very worried about it.
There was an actual break in administration and ideology between Cameron and Johnson, with May the transitional PM, such that you could argue they really were different parties. And Johnson won an election with the mandate that brings. But since then it’s just been court intrigue within a single party of government that needs to be judged on the totality of its term of office, not just the time since November 2022.
Legal decision iirc?
(Checking wiki, a lorra-lorra legal decisions, to the extent that I am not going to dig further.)
Battered like a deep-fried Topic.
The Cons look as if they might be half that.
Sunak is the worst of the PMs we've had.
You need to be a good team manager and skilled at organisation to get things done in politics, and build political alliances and coalitions domestically and internationally.
Farage can't do this - instead we'd get a lot of bloviated grandstanding in Parliament whilst nothing changed and he'd quit in a strop after 4 months - so what's the point?